WEBVTT - President Trump's Tariff Pivot; Global Markets React 0:00:02.560 --> 0:00:07.480 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:10.000 --> 0:00:13.280 Good morning, I'm Lisa Matteo and I'm Karen Moscow. Here 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:15.040 are the stories we're following today. 0:00:15.360 --> 0:00:17.360 Karen, what a difference of day makes well? The market 0:00:17.440 --> 0:00:20.080 moves this morning follows a monumental day on Wall Street. 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:23.200 US docks had their best day since two thousand and eight, 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:25.639 with the S and P five hundred rallying nine and 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:28.000 a half percent, and then as that one hundred staring 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:31.320 twelve percent. Now, it all happened after President Trump ordered 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:34.839 a ninety day pause on non retaliating countries and is 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:39.000 lowering reciprocal tariffs to ten percent, effective immediately, while raising 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:41.960 duties on China to one hundred and twenty five percent. 0:00:42.280 --> 0:00:46.120 I thought that people were jumping a little bit out 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:46.520 of line. 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:49.480 They were getting yippie, you know, they're getting a little 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:51.599 bit yippy, a little bit afraid. 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:54.920 Well, the President says, countries want to make a tariff deal. 0:00:55.080 --> 0:00:57.680 We don't want to hurt countries that don't need to 0:00:57.680 --> 0:00:59.240 be heard, and they all want to negotiate. 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:01.400 The only problem is, you know, you can only do 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:02.400 so many at one time. 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:05.920 It's like it's we want to do it right, We 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:06.800 want to get it right. 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:09.640 Well, that tactic pooks Trump on a collision course with 0:01:09.760 --> 0:01:13.039 Chinese President Jijinping, whose government has vowed to fight to 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.800 the end in any confrontation and looks to shore up 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.160 ties with trade partners to resist Trump. 0:01:18.360 --> 0:01:21.720 Well, Lisa, the Wall Street rally is spreading overseas. Our 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:25.440 first stop is Asia, where stocks in Japan's sword. Let's 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:27.639 go to Hong Kong now and get the very latest 0:01:27.640 --> 0:01:30.080 with the Bloomberg stal desa Istal, Good morning. 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:33.280 Good morning Karen and Lisa. Yes, we've seen surges pretty 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:36.319 much across the board. Stocks in South Korea rallied by 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:39.880 the most in five years. Japan's equities recorded the biggest 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:43.440 gain since August. We also saw some pretty significant numbers 0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:46.960 in Taiwan, where the Taiyak surged, really helped by TSMC, 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:50.080 the big chip maker there. Even in China, we did 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:53.880 see some increases in Hong Kong's Hansang Index. The Shanghai 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:58.000 Composite courted some modest gains earlier today. That's despite that 0:01:58.080 --> 0:02:00.920 one hundred and twenty five percent tarif that remained. Part 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:03.280 of this really comes down to sentiment that a lot 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:06.080 of these tariffs are being delayed. Maybe there's room for 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:10.000 negotiation elsewhere. Obviously we'll have to ultimately see what happens, 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:12.639 but certainly the sentiment in Asia is that investors are 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:15.480 breathing the sigh of relief. We've already started to see 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:19.079 some responses from various nations that were impacted by these tariffs, 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:22.480 particularly in Vietnam, which was set to receive a forty 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:25.480 six percent tariff from Trump. Obviously that now called off 0:02:25.720 --> 0:02:28.240 because of this ninety day reprieve. But yeah, certainly the 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:32.080 mood is obviously incredibly euphoric here. But again with this 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:34.680 ninety day reprieve still on the table, and it's still 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:37.280 being very unclear as to how any of these tariffs 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:40.960 would actually be negotiated, there's a lot left over the 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:43.480 coming weeks that we'd have to dig into in Hong Kong. 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:44.960 This Jill deeseis Bloomberg Radio. 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:47.480 All right, thank you, Jill. In Europe, we have stocks 0:02:47.480 --> 0:02:50.120 surging the most since twenty twenty. Let's get there very 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:53.000 latest with Bloomberg, Zoo and Pots in London. Good morning 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:53.240 you in. 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:55.320 Karen and Lisa. An update for you on the roller 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:58.880 coaster that his markets this week. Stocks surging as European 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:02.359 investors respond to the US president's tariff's roeback. The Stox 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:05.600 one hundred currently up five percent, just pairing some of 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:07.560 the gains at the start of the session, but still 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:11.240 the biggest surge since the beginning of the pandemic. Banks 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:14.920 up nearly eight percent and technology stocks up seven percent. 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:17.919 Currently the top gain is but a lot of green 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:21.280 on screens today, with five hundred and eighty six companies 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:24.639 higher on the stock six hundred today. Live in London, 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:25.720 I'm you in Pot's been by. 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:27.679 Grade year, all right, youwan? Thanks, Well, it was quite 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:30.960 a wild day on Wall Street with President Trump executing 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:34.560 one of the biggest economic policy reversals in modern presidential history. 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:37.520 We get the recap with Bloomberg's John Tucker, John, good 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:38.240 morning and. 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:40.200 Good morning Karen. Well. In the end, it was the 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:44.600 wild market swings that force the president's hand. Jay Pulaski 0:03:44.760 --> 0:03:46.400 is with TPW Investment. 0:03:46.800 --> 0:03:51.320 Thank goodness for independent financial markets, which I believe bounded 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:55.120 and forced the president and his team to reverse themselves. 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:58.040 And that's a view shared by Professor Niropalma Rao at 0:03:58.040 --> 0:03:59.280 the University of Michigan. 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.600 Legislator or how to Relege that you can dictate terriffs, 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:07.200 but you can't dictate how market to respond to terriffs. 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:10.119 On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, murmurs 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:12.680 at first turned into a roar as the news of 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:15.240 the TARRFF for versal hit. One trader said it was 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:18.760 total shock and awe. The floor erupted. The S and 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:20.839 P five hundred ended the day up nine and a 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:25.080 half percent. But Francis Donald at RBC reminds investors, tariffs 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:26.400 haven't totally gone away. 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:27.039 To me. 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:29.960 Last week, I thought America's cut off both its arms. 0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:31.400 Today one arm. 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:31.760 Well. 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:34.680 Trump he implemented the three month pause after a frenetic 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:38.080 meeting with Economic aids. The decision came as they were 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:41.200 watching the bond market. The ten year treasury saw the 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:43.800 biggest three day jumps since two thousand and one. The 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:47.480 president was confronting a worst case scenario. Voters who had 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:50.400 returned him to the White House because of inflation now 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:54.120 faced both increased prices and higher barring costs. As the 0:04:54.160 --> 0:04:57.039 President then said, people were getting a little queasy in 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:58.919 New York. I'm John Tucker Bloomberg Radio. 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:02.560 Thank you John. While Goldman sax economists have rescinded their 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:05.120 forecast for a US recession. We had that story from 0:05:05.120 --> 0:05:06.480 Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:10.039 The call came after President Trump announced a ninety day 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:13.640 pause on most of his previously announced tariffs. The deal's 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:15.080 going to be made with China. 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:17.159 The deal's going to be made with every one of them, 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:18.400 and they'll. 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:21.080 Be fair deals. I just want fair. Goldman Chief economist 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:24.120 Jan Hatzias said, we are now reverting to our previous 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:29.560 non recession baseline forecast. Goldman economists initially called for a 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:34.080 US recession, but rescinded it after the President announced the pause. 0:05:34.520 --> 0:05:37.480 In New York, Charlie Pellett's Bloomberg Radio. 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:39.480 All right, Charlie, thank you well. In addition to all 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:42.679 the tariff talk, investors will have a key economic report 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:45.599 on the docket this morning. We get the CPI report 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:47.760 for the month of March. In a preview with the 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:49.880 Bloomberg's Michael McKee. 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:52.960 Consumer prices are forecasts who have been relatively tame in March, 0:05:53.120 --> 0:05:56.159 with the annual rates of headline and core inflation falling, 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.600 but investors will be looking hard for signs of impending 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:03.560 teriff price increases. Goods prices which had fallen since the 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:08.200 pandemics end, have suddenly reversed course. It's possible buying ahead 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:10.920 of Trump's import taxes pushed up the cost of some 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:15.520 of those items. Electronics, toys, and furniture are categories to watch. 0:06:16.360 --> 0:06:19.440 As for Fed officials, they'll watch too, but given the 0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:22.760 taraphor has just begun, they'll wait for further months data 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:26.880 before considering any policy change. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:29.680 Thanks Mike, and metals rebounding this morning to halt their 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:33.400 longest run of daily losses in twenty five years. Copper 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:36.599 up five percent, aluminum higher by three percent, and ten 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:39.320 that's surging more than six percent. 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:42.680 Lisa shares of US Steel they are down eleven and 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:45.400 a half percent in early trading. The drop comes after 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:47.640 President Trump said he does not want to see the 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:51.360 steelmaker owned by a Japanese company. US Steel and Japan's 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:54.440 Nippon Steel have been trying to save their fourteen billion 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:57.680 dollar deal after former President Joe Biden blocked it on 0:06:57.839 --> 0:07:03.960 national security grounds. And it's time now for a look 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:05.800 at some of the other stories making news in New 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:07.760 York and around the world. And for that we're joined 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:10.160 by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael, good Morning. 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:12.720 Good morning, Karen. House Speaker Mike Johnson says he will 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:16.560 try again today to pass the Senate approved Republican budget blueprint. 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:20.200 The speaker canceled a Wednesday evening vote after opposition from 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:21.600 about a dozen holdouts. 0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:25.600 We're having very productive conversations with a good subset of 0:07:25.600 --> 0:07:29.840 the House Republican Conference. Everybody has the same idea and 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:32.280 mission and goal in mind, and that is we want 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:33.760 to deliver the one big beautiful bill. 0:07:34.200 --> 0:07:36.520 Time is running out. Members are slated to go on 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.960 recess tomorrow for over two weeks. The death toll from 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:43.480 Tuesday's nightclub roof collapse and the Dominican Republic is now 0:07:43.520 --> 0:07:46.520 at one hundred and eighty four. The search for survivors 0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:50.400 is over and victim recovery efforts are underway. Heavy machinery, 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:53.120 cranes and crews are on top of what used to 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:56.480 be the jet Set nightclub across the street. Hundreds of 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:59.360 family members are desperate for word on their loved ones 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:02.920 who are still missing. There's more support for the Maryland 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:06.160 man who was allegedly deported by accident to El Salvador 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:10.920 by the Trump administration, the family of Abrego Garcia, and 0:08:10.960 --> 0:08:14.239 the members of the Hispanic Caucus called for his release 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:17.160 and returned to the US on Capitol Hill as the 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:20.200 case works its way through the courts. His wife, Jennifer 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:22.600 Vasquez Sura, was among the speakers. 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:30.200 Kill Ma, if you can hear me, I'm still fighting 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:40.319 for you, your brother, your mother, her children are still 0:08:40.360 --> 0:08:41.160 fighting for you. 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:45.960 Maryland Senator Chris van Holland joined at Brego Garcia's family. 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.760 We demand that Kilmar be returned home. 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:51.360 Now. 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:54.840 What has happened here should never happen in the United 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:55.880 States of America. 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:59.160 That Brego Garcia was taken into custody nearly a month ago. 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:02.240 It comes as the Department of Homeland Security confirms that 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:05.760 the Trump administration will keep deporting alleged gang members to 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:10.079 the notorious prison in El Salvador. Global News twenty four 0:09:10.160 --> 0:09:12.439 hours a day and whenever you want it with the 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:13.240 Bloomberg News. 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:13.400 Now. 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:15.840 I'm Michael Barrn. This is Bloomberg hern all. 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:22.920 Right, Michael barr thank you time now for the Bloomberg 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:26.000 Sports some date. Here's John Stanshower. John, good morning. 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:28.360 Do you want to care of the Master's eighty ninth editions. 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:30.640 He's off this morning. Augusta Nash Little clear skies in 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.560 the forecast. Another chance for Roy McElroy to win a major. 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:35.920 He won four and four years, but now none in 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:39.480 the last decade. Despite so many close calls twenty one 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:41.800 top ten finishes seven of them at the Masters, He's 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:45.559 become an expert at trying to overcome I mean, you know, sure. 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:47.320 It's something that I'm really proud of. 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:47.600 You know. 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:51.960 Yeah, Look, you have satbox and you have disappointments. But 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.880 as long as you can learn from them and move 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:58.840 forward and try to put those learnings into practice, I 0:09:58.840 --> 0:10:01.640 think is very very important. I feel like I've I've 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:04.160 showed that quite a lot over the course of my career. 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:07.400 Rory T's off one twelve this afternoon. Scottie Scheffler ten 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:10.240 to fifteen this morning. He's trying to join Jack Nicholas 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:12.559 the only golfers to win three Green Jackets in the 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:15.760 four year span. Mets and Yankees had series ending Mattinees. 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:18.680 Mets held the two Hits, suffered their first city field defeat. 0:10:18.760 --> 0:10:22.400 Miami won five nothing. Mets played tomorrow in Sacramento against 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:24.280 the A's. Yankees will be back home for the Giants. 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:26.719 The Salvage won in Detroit four to three. The New 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:30.600 Yankee Ace Max Fried superb seven scorele Citians. The New 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:33.520 Yankee closer Devin Williams not so good, gave up three 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:35.640 and the ninth had to be taken out Toronto for 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:37.520 the third straight night. One in Boston two to one 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:40.560 to eleven is the Dodgers Salvage. One in Washington six 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:43.600 to five. At the Garden, Rangers lost to Philadelphia eight 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:46.200 to five or nine goals scored in the third period. 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:49.320 The Flyers Tyson Forster had a hat trick in Dallas 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:52.360 the return of Luca Donzich. He scored forty five points 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:53.600 thirty one in the first half. 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:55.040 The Lakers beat the match. 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:58.960 John Stashevard Bloomberg Sports Okay. 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.960 Host to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:07.240 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:08.600 Bloomberg Business app. 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.320 This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.000 All right, It's coming up at five thirteen on Wall Street. 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:18.360 President Trump's dramatic u turn on Taras sent equity soaring yesterday. 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:20.839 The President says he's bringing countries to the table for 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:25.360 negotiation while singling out China as his administration exerts maximum 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:28.000 pressure on the world's second largest economy. 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:29.360 They all want to make a deal. 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:31.559 Somebody had to do what we did, and I did 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:32.440 a ninety day. 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:35.439 Pause for the people that didn't retaliate, because they told him, 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:37.160 if you retaliate, we're going to double it. 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:40.160 And that's what I did with China because they did retaliate. 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:42.400 All right, for more on the next steps for President 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:45.000 Trump's tariff strategy, we want to bring in Bloomberg News 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:48.520 Trades are Brendan Murray. Brendan, thanks for joining us this morning. 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:51.640 I want to start with this ninety day pause. I mean, 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:54.280 what do you think pushed the president to pivot? You 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:57.880 had Treasury Secretary Scott Besen said it was driven by strategy. 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:00.640 I mean, where who was he facing this pre from? 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:04.400 It was mainly the financial markets that were flashing signs 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:06.720 that this was going to go from a stock market 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:11.040 collapse to a problem for Wall Street, to a problem 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:15.680 from Main Street, a credit crunch, the treasury market. You know, 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.720 it was throwing off signals that things were getting a 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:22.320 little bit disorderly and that you know, spells trouble for 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:26.240 you know, all sorts of ways that you know, finances 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:30.960 transmitted through the banking system. So the president surely listened 0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:33.840 to some of his advisors who said, look, we might 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:36.199 have gotten that out ahead of our skis on this 0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:38.440 bitten off more than we can chew when it comes 0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:42.680 to doing trade wars with pretty much everybody in the world, 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:45.319 why don't we scale it back and let's focus on 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:48.800 the real target here, which is China. And that's what 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:52.480 they did, and they rolled back all these high terraffs 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.959 for everyone else except for China. China's tariff one to 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.760 one hundred and twenty five percent, which over time will 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:03.200 essentially decouple the US economy from the Chinese economy if 0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:06.160 if they're if they're allowed to persist. So there's a 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:09.600 lot of pressure on China economically to uh, to try 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:12.200 to diffuse the situation. But China says, hey, look, we don't. 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:14.600 We don't respond to threats. You want to you want 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:16.520 to talk with us, you have to come to the 0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:19.160 table with you know, a more as they would say, 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.800 you know, respectful attitude. So we're the real impass here. 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:27.280 And uh, there's no telling what the next uh what 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:29.480 what the next shots are going to be fired economically 0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:33.600 between the two. But it's if it portends a rough 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:36.920 couple of months, if if if neither side is willing 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:37.360 to budge. 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:39.280 So how is this going to war on the Chinese 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:41.400 economy specifically, Well. 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.720 It's going to hurt their exporters, number one. Their exporters 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:47.040 already operate on very thin margins and that they're going 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:50.040 to have to find other customers if if the American 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:53.800 market is closed off to them with these high tariffs. So, uh, 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:57.520 the China is already actively you know, trying to uh 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:02.280 develop better ties with with with with countries in in 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:05.520 Latin America and Africa and Europe, and you know they're 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.360 gonna they're gonna they're already less dependent on the US 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:11.920 market than they were, say five years ago during the 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.679 Trump's first term. But they're going to have to diversify 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:19.160 a lot more very quickly if they if they want 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:23.440 to avoid any big economic headwind from the tariffs that 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:24.960 President Trump has put on them. 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:28.560 Now they haven't stepped up to the negotiating table yet, 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.840 will they, I mean dig more into how much leverage 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:32.640 China does have. 0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:37.120 Well, China can can cut off, China can cause a 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.480 lot of pain you know, but on the separate from tariffs, 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:46.040 they can they can limit the amount of raw materials 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:50.440 and machinery and critical minerals that American companies need to 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:54.240 uh to produce what they produce. So China would that 0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:55.880 would be one way they could cut things off. They 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:58.560 could target US companies and operate in China. They could 0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:03.360 make life difficult through regulations and and taxes and other 0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:06.000 other sort of ways to to to you know, to 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:10.400 make make life difficult for for American companies in China. 0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:14.160 And you know, generally they can just uh, they can 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.080 try to negotiate with other countries to you know, to 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.640 team up with them rather than with the US. The 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:24.120 US is uh, you know, whether you support President Trump's 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:26.880 trade approach or not, He's made a lot of friends friends, 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:30.040 he's made a lot of enemies of former friends in 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.680 the in the first two three months when it comes 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:34.920 to trade. So China would be going around saying, hey, look, 0:15:34.920 --> 0:15:37.920 we're the reliable partner. Now you can trust us. 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:38.280 Uh. 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:42.680 The US is unpredictable and unreliable, so you know, team 0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:44.360 up with us and that you know, that's another way 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:45.680 that China can hit back. 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:47.480 Yeah, I want to get more into that. So is 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:50.280 there this deeper meaning to this isolation? I mean, is 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:53.320 it puts putting the pressure on other countries and their 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:54.480 relationship with China. 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.360 Well, I think that's one of the reasons, among many 0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:00.520 why the Trump administration did the u turn that it 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:03.560 did yesterday. It said, look, we can't, we can't. We 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:06.200 need our allies if we're going to stand up to China, 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:08.880 and if we put these high tariffs on everybody, then 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:11.080 we're gonna you know, then we're just kind of we're 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:15.360 working against ourselves here. So as Treasury Secretary Besson said, 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:17.400 you look, if we can put together some deals with 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:19.920 our allies, that way we could we could stand up 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:22.600 much more strongly against China than we could if we're 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:23.320 going it alone. 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:25.320 Yeah, and Beson did say, you know, we can probably 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:26.840 reach a deal with our allies. At the end of 0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:29.120 the day, is ninety days enough. 0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:33.400 Ninety days is a flash in the pan when it 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:37.000 comes to negotiating trade agreements. Trade agreements take I think 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:42.160 the renegotiation of NAFTA, which was really just a rebranding exercise, 0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:44.760 took two years. So that was you know, that was 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:47.280 a trade deal. The North American Free Trade agreement. It 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:52.560 was renegotiated in Trump's first term, and that renegotiation took 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:55.880 two years in itself. Trade agreements take years and years, 0:16:56.480 --> 0:17:00.600 some take decades and before because there's this so much 0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:02.800 detail that needs to be hammered out. There are thousands 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:05.480 and thousands of pages of legal ease. And so if 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:07.800 the president president likes to say that he you know, 0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:11.919 he operates at you know, at at warp speed. So 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:14.680 we'll see if that can be done in any meaningful 0:17:14.720 --> 0:17:18.120 way with trading partners who are first of vine, those 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:24.120 are Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India. Are are keen 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:25.320 to sit at the table first? 0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:27.840 All right, thank you very much. Bloomberg's Brendan Murray. 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:30.040 Let's bring in our next guest. This morning sent you 0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:32.080 up for the trading day. We saw nine and a 0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:34.280 half percent surage, you know, the S and P five 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:36.840 hundred after the Tara pause was announced by the president. 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:39.840 This morning, though US futures point to a lower open. 0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:44.080 Let's join Dan Morris, now the chief market strategist at 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:47.919 BNP Paraba Asset Management. Dan, first off, let me just 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.600 get your reaction. What was going through your head yesterday? 0:17:52.200 --> 0:17:54.120 Well, you know, it's it's you want to be able 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:57.600 to say you expected it all along. Though nonetheless, our 0:17:57.680 --> 0:18:01.040 view initially had been that the terrors were negotiating tactic 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:05.000 which adjusted at some point depending on the response that 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:06.960 you had from the US trading partners. There would be 0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:10.120 a response for the administration. You just didn't exactly when 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:12.920 or what or how. But the fact that we did 0:18:12.960 --> 0:18:15.360 get one eventually from that point of view, wasn't necessarily 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:15.920 a surprise. 0:18:16.760 --> 0:18:20.440 Is the market reaction a reflex or a return to 0:18:20.560 --> 0:18:22.600 risk appetite? 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:25.200 But I don't think we're quite that far yet. I 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:27.760 mean we I guess if you think about what's happening 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:30.879 in the futures right now. For all the reduction in 0:18:30.960 --> 0:18:33.240 the reciprocal tariffs that we had for most countries, of 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.320 course you still have ten percent terras, which is a 0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:38.920 non trivial change that the market still needs to assess. 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:41.959 There's all the uncertainty about how these negotiations go. As 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:45.120 your previous guests mentioned, this is not going to happen overnight. 0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:48.879 And of course there's China, which is still a significant 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:51.919 trading partner for the US. Even if we know the 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:54.560 size or the trade isn't commensurate on both sides. It 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:56.439 still matters and this is going to have an impact 0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:58.000 on companies in both markets. 0:18:58.280 --> 0:19:00.440 Yeah, well, let's talk about the impact with the first 0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:02.679 quarter results coming through. What are you going to be 0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:04.440 looking for for the results of companies? 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:08.119 Well, I think at this point, you know, it's going 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:09.800 to be nice to know how things were in the 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:11.439 first quarter, but it's not going to tell us too 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:13.600 much about the future. You're going to want to be 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:16.760 looking at the guidance, and in fact, already over the 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:19.800 last you know, a couple months, guidance has been a 0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:22.880 bit weak, though historically that tends to be the case 0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.320 around this time of the year, so it's hard to 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.640 say that it's necessarily any worse than it has been historically. 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:30.919 I think the dilemma is going to be both for 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:33.840 investors and for companies, is you know, no one's really 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:36.159 going to feel like they have a clear view on 0:19:36.240 --> 0:19:39.080 the future, So the guidance, you know, may be a 0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:42.040 lot of wait and see as opposed a definitive view 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:43.800 on we think profits are going to go up or 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:44.680 we think they're going to go. 0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:48.040