Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Lisa Matteo and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
Speaker 2: are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 3: Karen, what a difference of day makes well? The market
Speaker 3: moves this morning follows a monumental day on Wall Street.
Speaker 3: US docks had their best day since two thousand and eight,
Speaker 3: with the S and P five hundred rallying nine and
Speaker 3: a half percent, and then as that one hundred staring
Speaker 3: twelve percent. Now, it all happened after President Trump ordered
Speaker 3: a ninety day pause on non retaliating countries and is
Speaker 3: lowering reciprocal tariffs to ten percent, effective immediately, while raising
Speaker 3: duties on China to one hundred and twenty five percent.
Speaker 3: I thought that people were jumping a little bit out
Speaker 3: of line.
Speaker 2: They were getting yippie, you know, they're getting a little
Speaker 2: bit yippy, a little bit afraid.
Speaker 3: Well, the President says, countries want to make a tariff deal.
Speaker 4: We don't want to hurt countries that don't need to
Speaker 4: be heard, and they all want to negotiate.
Speaker 2: The only problem is, you know, you can only do
Speaker 2: so many at one time.
Speaker 5: It's like it's we want to do it right, We
Speaker 5: want to get it right.
Speaker 3: Well, that tactic pooks Trump on a collision course with
Speaker 3: Chinese President Jijinping, whose government has vowed to fight to
Speaker 3: the end in any confrontation and looks to shore up
Speaker 3: ties with trade partners to resist Trump.
Speaker 2: Well, Lisa, the Wall Street rally is spreading overseas. Our
Speaker 2: first stop is Asia, where stocks in Japan's sword. Let's
Speaker 2: go to Hong Kong now and get the very latest
Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg stal desa Istal, Good morning.
Speaker 1: Good morning Karen and Lisa. Yes, we've seen surges pretty
Speaker 1: much across the board. Stocks in South Korea rallied by
Speaker 1: the most in five years. Japan's equities recorded the biggest
Speaker 1: gain since August. We also saw some pretty significant numbers
Speaker 1: in Taiwan, where the Taiyak surged, really helped by TSMC,
Speaker 1: the big chip maker there. Even in China, we did
Speaker 1: see some increases in Hong Kong's Hansang Index. The Shanghai
Speaker 1: Composite courted some modest gains earlier today. That's despite that
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty five percent tarif that remained. Part
Speaker 1: of this really comes down to sentiment that a lot
Speaker 1: of these tariffs are being delayed. Maybe there's room for
Speaker 1: negotiation elsewhere. Obviously we'll have to ultimately see what happens,
Speaker 1: but certainly the sentiment in Asia is that investors are
Speaker 1: breathing the sigh of relief. We've already started to see
Speaker 1: some responses from various nations that were impacted by these tariffs,
Speaker 1: particularly in Vietnam, which was set to receive a forty
Speaker 1: six percent tariff from Trump. Obviously that now called off
Speaker 1: because of this ninety day reprieve. But yeah, certainly the
Speaker 1: mood is obviously incredibly euphoric here. But again with this
Speaker 1: ninety day reprieve still on the table, and it's still
Speaker 1: being very unclear as to how any of these tariffs
Speaker 1: would actually be negotiated, there's a lot left over the
Speaker 1: coming weeks that we'd have to dig into in Hong Kong.
Speaker 1: This Jill deeseis Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: All right, thank you, Jill. In Europe, we have stocks
Speaker 3: surging the most since twenty twenty. Let's get there very
Speaker 3: latest with Bloomberg, Zoo and Pots in London. Good morning
Speaker 3: you in.
Speaker 6: Karen and Lisa. An update for you on the roller
Speaker 6: coaster that his markets this week. Stocks surging as European
Speaker 6: investors respond to the US president's tariff's roeback. The Stox
Speaker 6: one hundred currently up five percent, just pairing some of
Speaker 6: the gains at the start of the session, but still
Speaker 6: the biggest surge since the beginning of the pandemic. Banks
Speaker 6: up nearly eight percent and technology stocks up seven percent.
Speaker 6: Currently the top gain is but a lot of green
Speaker 6: on screens today, with five hundred and eighty six companies
Speaker 6: higher on the stock six hundred today. Live in London,
Speaker 6: I'm you in Pot's been by.
Speaker 2: Grade year, all right, youwan? Thanks, Well, it was quite
Speaker 2: a wild day on Wall Street with President Trump executing
Speaker 2: one of the biggest economic policy reversals in modern presidential history.
Speaker 2: We get the recap with Bloomberg's John Tucker, John, good
Speaker 2: morning and.
Speaker 7: Good morning Karen. Well. In the end, it was the
Speaker 7: wild market swings that force the president's hand. Jay Pulaski
Speaker 7: is with TPW Investment.
Speaker 8: Thank goodness for independent financial markets, which I believe bounded
Speaker 8: and forced the president and his team to reverse themselves.
Speaker 7: And that's a view shared by Professor Niropalma Rao at
Speaker 7: the University of Michigan.
Speaker 9: Legislator or how to Relege that you can dictate terriffs,
Speaker 9: but you can't dictate how market to respond to terriffs.
Speaker 7: On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, murmurs
Speaker 7: at first turned into a roar as the news of
Speaker 7: the TARRFF for versal hit. One trader said it was
Speaker 7: total shock and awe. The floor erupted. The S and
Speaker 7: P five hundred ended the day up nine and a
Speaker 7: half percent. But Francis Donald at RBC reminds investors, tariffs
Speaker 7: haven't totally gone away.
Speaker 10: To me.
Speaker 3: Last week, I thought America's cut off both its arms.
Speaker 10: Today one arm.
Speaker 11: Well.
Speaker 7: Trump he implemented the three month pause after a frenetic
Speaker 7: meeting with Economic aids. The decision came as they were
Speaker 7: watching the bond market. The ten year treasury saw the
Speaker 7: biggest three day jumps since two thousand and one. The
Speaker 7: president was confronting a worst case scenario. Voters who had
Speaker 7: returned him to the White House because of inflation now
Speaker 7: faced both increased prices and higher barring costs. As the
Speaker 7: President then said, people were getting a little queasy in
Speaker 7: New York. I'm John Tucker Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: Thank you John. While Goldman sax economists have rescinded their
Speaker 3: forecast for a US recession. We had that story from
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett.
Speaker 12: The call came after President Trump announced a ninety day
Speaker 12: pause on most of his previously announced tariffs. The deal's
Speaker 12: going to be made with China.
Speaker 5: The deal's going to be made with every one of them,
Speaker 5: and they'll.
Speaker 12: Be fair deals. I just want fair. Goldman Chief economist
Speaker 12: Jan Hatzias said, we are now reverting to our previous
Speaker 12: non recession baseline forecast. Goldman economists initially called for a
Speaker 12: US recession, but rescinded it after the President announced the pause.
Speaker 12: In New York, Charlie Pellett's Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, Charlie, thank you well. In addition to all
Speaker 2: the tariff talk, investors will have a key economic report
Speaker 2: on the docket this morning. We get the CPI report
Speaker 2: for the month of March. In a preview with the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Michael McKee.
Speaker 5: Consumer prices are forecasts who have been relatively tame in March,
Speaker 5: with the annual rates of headline and core inflation falling,
Speaker 5: but investors will be looking hard for signs of impending
Speaker 5: teriff price increases. Goods prices which had fallen since the
Speaker 5: pandemics end, have suddenly reversed course. It's possible buying ahead
Speaker 5: of Trump's import taxes pushed up the cost of some
Speaker 5: of those items. Electronics, toys, and furniture are categories to watch.
Speaker 5: As for Fed officials, they'll watch too, but given the
Speaker 5: taraphor has just begun, they'll wait for further months data
Speaker 5: before considering any policy change. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: Thanks Mike, and metals rebounding this morning to halt their
Speaker 3: longest run of daily losses in twenty five years. Copper
Speaker 3: up five percent, aluminum higher by three percent, and ten
Speaker 3: that's surging more than six percent.
Speaker 2: Lisa shares of US Steel they are down eleven and
Speaker 2: a half percent in early trading. The drop comes after
Speaker 2: President Trump said he does not want to see the
Speaker 2: steelmaker owned by a Japanese company. US Steel and Japan's
Speaker 2: Nippon Steel have been trying to save their fourteen billion
Speaker 2: dollar deal after former President Joe Biden blocked it on
Speaker 2: national security grounds. And it's time now for a look
Speaker 2: at some of the other stories making news in New
Speaker 2: York and around the world. And for that we're joined
Speaker 2: by Bloomberg's Michael Barr Michael, good Morning.
Speaker 11: Good morning, Karen. House Speaker Mike Johnson says he will
Speaker 11: try again today to pass the Senate approved Republican budget blueprint.
Speaker 11: The speaker canceled a Wednesday evening vote after opposition from
Speaker 11: about a dozen holdouts.
Speaker 4: We're having very productive conversations with a good subset of
Speaker 4: the House Republican Conference. Everybody has the same idea and
Speaker 4: mission and goal in mind, and that is we want
Speaker 4: to deliver the one big beautiful bill.
Speaker 11: Time is running out. Members are slated to go on
Speaker 11: recess tomorrow for over two weeks. The death toll from
Speaker 11: Tuesday's nightclub roof collapse and the Dominican Republic is now
Speaker 11: at one hundred and eighty four. The search for survivors
Speaker 11: is over and victim recovery efforts are underway. Heavy machinery,
Speaker 11: cranes and crews are on top of what used to
Speaker 11: be the jet Set nightclub across the street. Hundreds of
Speaker 11: family members are desperate for word on their loved ones
Speaker 11: who are still missing. There's more support for the Maryland
Speaker 11: man who was allegedly deported by accident to El Salvador
Speaker 11: by the Trump administration, the family of Abrego Garcia, and
Speaker 11: the members of the Hispanic Caucus called for his release
Speaker 11: and returned to the US on Capitol Hill as the
Speaker 11: case works its way through the courts. His wife, Jennifer
Speaker 11: Vasquez Sura, was among the speakers.
Speaker 13: Kill Ma, if you can hear me, I'm still fighting
Speaker 13: for you, your brother, your mother, her children are still
Speaker 13: fighting for you.
Speaker 11: Maryland Senator Chris van Holland joined at Brego Garcia's family.
Speaker 7: We demand that Kilmar be returned home.
Speaker 8: Now.
Speaker 4: What has happened here should never happen in the United
Speaker 4: States of America.
Speaker 11: That Brego Garcia was taken into custody nearly a month ago.
Speaker 11: It comes as the Department of Homeland Security confirms that
Speaker 11: the Trump administration will keep deporting alleged gang members to
Speaker 11: the notorious prison in El Salvador. Global News twenty four
Speaker 11: hours a day and whenever you want it with the
Speaker 11: Bloomberg News.
Speaker 14: Now.
Speaker 11: I'm Michael Barrn. This is Bloomberg hern all.
Speaker 2: Right, Michael barr thank you time now for the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Sports some date. Here's John Stanshower. John, good morning.
Speaker 8: Do you want to care of the Master's eighty ninth editions.
Speaker 8: He's off this morning. Augusta Nash Little clear skies in
Speaker 8: the forecast. Another chance for Roy McElroy to win a major.
Speaker 8: He won four and four years, but now none in
Speaker 8: the last decade. Despite so many close calls twenty one
Speaker 8: top ten finishes seven of them at the Masters, He's
Speaker 8: become an expert at trying to overcome I mean, you know, sure.
Speaker 10: It's something that I'm really proud of.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 14: Yeah, Look, you have satbox and you have disappointments. But
Speaker 14: as long as you can learn from them and move
Speaker 14: forward and try to put those learnings into practice, I
Speaker 14: think is very very important. I feel like I've I've
Speaker 14: showed that quite a lot over the course of my career.
Speaker 8: Rory T's off one twelve this afternoon. Scottie Scheffler ten
Speaker 8: to fifteen this morning. He's trying to join Jack Nicholas
Speaker 8: the only golfers to win three Green Jackets in the
Speaker 8: four year span. Mets and Yankees had series ending Mattinees.
Speaker 8: Mets held the two Hits, suffered their first city field defeat.
Speaker 8: Miami won five nothing. Mets played tomorrow in Sacramento against
Speaker 8: the A's. Yankees will be back home for the Giants.
Speaker 8: The Salvage won in Detroit four to three. The New
Speaker 8: Yankee Ace Max Fried superb seven scorele Citians. The New
Speaker 8: Yankee closer Devin Williams not so good, gave up three
Speaker 8: and the ninth had to be taken out Toronto for
Speaker 8: the third straight night. One in Boston two to one
Speaker 8: to eleven is the Dodgers Salvage. One in Washington six
Speaker 8: to five. At the Garden, Rangers lost to Philadelphia eight
Speaker 8: to five or nine goals scored in the third period.
Speaker 8: The Flyers Tyson Forster had a hat trick in Dallas
Speaker 8: the return of Luca Donzich. He scored forty five points
Speaker 8: thirty one in the first half.
Speaker 11: The Lakers beat the match.
Speaker 8: John Stashevard Bloomberg Sports Okay.
Speaker 9: Host to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,
Speaker 9: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Speaker 9: Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 12: This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3: All right, It's coming up at five thirteen on Wall Street.
Speaker 3: President Trump's dramatic u turn on Taras sent equity soaring yesterday.
Speaker 3: The President says he's bringing countries to the table for
Speaker 3: negotiation while singling out China as his administration exerts maximum
Speaker 3: pressure on the world's second largest economy.
Speaker 4: They all want to make a deal.
Speaker 9: Somebody had to do what we did, and I did
Speaker 9: a ninety day.
Speaker 8: Pause for the people that didn't retaliate, because they told him,
Speaker 8: if you retaliate, we're going to double it.
Speaker 12: And that's what I did with China because they did retaliate.
Speaker 3: All right, for more on the next steps for President
Speaker 3: Trump's tariff strategy, we want to bring in Bloomberg News
Speaker 3: Trades are Brendan Murray. Brendan, thanks for joining us this morning.
Speaker 3: I want to start with this ninety day pause. I mean,
Speaker 3: what do you think pushed the president to pivot? You
Speaker 3: had Treasury Secretary Scott Besen said it was driven by strategy.
Speaker 3: I mean, where who was he facing this pre from?
Speaker 10: It was mainly the financial markets that were flashing signs
Speaker 10: that this was going to go from a stock market
Speaker 10: collapse to a problem for Wall Street, to a problem
Speaker 10: from Main Street, a credit crunch, the treasury market. You know,
Speaker 10: it was throwing off signals that things were getting a
Speaker 10: little bit disorderly and that you know, spells trouble for
Speaker 10: you know, all sorts of ways that you know, finances
Speaker 10: transmitted through the banking system. So the president surely listened
Speaker 10: to some of his advisors who said, look, we might
Speaker 10: have gotten that out ahead of our skis on this
Speaker 10: bitten off more than we can chew when it comes
Speaker 10: to doing trade wars with pretty much everybody in the world,
Speaker 10: why don't we scale it back and let's focus on
Speaker 10: the real target here, which is China. And that's what
Speaker 10: they did, and they rolled back all these high terraffs
Speaker 10: for everyone else except for China. China's tariff one to
Speaker 10: one hundred and twenty five percent, which over time will
Speaker 10: essentially decouple the US economy from the Chinese economy if
Speaker 10: if they're if they're allowed to persist. So there's a
Speaker 10: lot of pressure on China economically to uh, to try
Speaker 10: to diffuse the situation. But China says, hey, look, we don't.
Speaker 10: We don't respond to threats. You want to you want
Speaker 10: to talk with us, you have to come to the
Speaker 10: table with you know, a more as they would say,
Speaker 10: you know, respectful attitude. So we're the real impass here.
Speaker 10: And uh, there's no telling what the next uh what
Speaker 10: what the next shots are going to be fired economically
Speaker 10: between the two. But it's if it portends a rough
Speaker 10: couple of months, if if if neither side is willing
Speaker 10: to budge.
Speaker 3: So how is this going to war on the Chinese
Speaker 3: economy specifically, Well.
Speaker 10: It's going to hurt their exporters, number one. Their exporters
Speaker 10: already operate on very thin margins and that they're going
Speaker 10: to have to find other customers if if the American
Speaker 10: market is closed off to them with these high tariffs. So, uh,
Speaker 10: the China is already actively you know, trying to uh
Speaker 10: develop better ties with with with with countries in in
Speaker 10: Latin America and Africa and Europe, and you know they're
Speaker 10: gonna they're gonna they're already less dependent on the US
Speaker 10: market than they were, say five years ago during the
Speaker 10: Trump's first term. But they're going to have to diversify
Speaker 10: a lot more very quickly if they if they want
Speaker 10: to avoid any big economic headwind from the tariffs that
Speaker 10: President Trump has put on them.
Speaker 3: Now they haven't stepped up to the negotiating table yet,
Speaker 3: will they, I mean dig more into how much leverage
Speaker 3: China does have.
Speaker 10: Well, China can can cut off, China can cause a
Speaker 10: lot of pain you know, but on the separate from tariffs,
Speaker 10: they can they can limit the amount of raw materials
Speaker 10: and machinery and critical minerals that American companies need to
Speaker 10: uh to produce what they produce. So China would that
Speaker 10: would be one way they could cut things off. They
Speaker 10: could target US companies and operate in China. They could
Speaker 10: make life difficult through regulations and and taxes and other
Speaker 10: other sort of ways to to to you know, to
Speaker 10: make make life difficult for for American companies in China.
Speaker 10: And you know, generally they can just uh, they can
Speaker 10: try to negotiate with other countries to you know, to
Speaker 10: team up with them rather than with the US. The
Speaker 10: US is uh, you know, whether you support President Trump's
Speaker 10: trade approach or not, He's made a lot of friends friends,
Speaker 10: he's made a lot of enemies of former friends in
Speaker 10: the in the first two three months when it comes
Speaker 10: to trade. So China would be going around saying, hey, look,
Speaker 10: we're the reliable partner. Now you can trust us.
Speaker 11: Uh.
Speaker 10: The US is unpredictable and unreliable, so you know, team
Speaker 10: up with us and that you know, that's another way
Speaker 10: that China can hit back.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I want to get more into that. So is
Speaker 3: there this deeper meaning to this isolation? I mean, is
Speaker 3: it puts putting the pressure on other countries and their
Speaker 3: relationship with China.
Speaker 10: Well, I think that's one of the reasons, among many
Speaker 10: why the Trump administration did the u turn that it
Speaker 10: did yesterday. It said, look, we can't, we can't. We
Speaker 10: need our allies if we're going to stand up to China,
Speaker 10: and if we put these high tariffs on everybody, then
Speaker 10: we're gonna you know, then we're just kind of we're
Speaker 10: working against ourselves here. So as Treasury Secretary Besson said,
Speaker 10: you look, if we can put together some deals with
Speaker 10: our allies, that way we could we could stand up
Speaker 10: much more strongly against China than we could if we're
Speaker 10: going it alone.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Beson did say, you know, we can probably
Speaker 3: reach a deal with our allies. At the end of
Speaker 3: the day, is ninety days enough.
Speaker 10: Ninety days is a flash in the pan when it
Speaker 10: comes to negotiating trade agreements. Trade agreements take I think
Speaker 10: the renegotiation of NAFTA, which was really just a rebranding exercise,
Speaker 10: took two years. So that was you know, that was
Speaker 10: a trade deal. The North American Free Trade agreement. It
Speaker 10: was renegotiated in Trump's first term, and that renegotiation took
Speaker 10: two years in itself. Trade agreements take years and years,
Speaker 10: some take decades and before because there's this so much
Speaker 10: detail that needs to be hammered out. There are thousands
Speaker 10: and thousands of pages of legal ease. And so if
Speaker 10: the president president likes to say that he you know,
Speaker 10: he operates at you know, at at warp speed. So
Speaker 10: we'll see if that can be done in any meaningful
Speaker 10: way with trading partners who are first of vine, those
Speaker 10: are Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India. Are are keen
Speaker 10: to sit at the table first?
Speaker 3: All right, thank you very much. Bloomberg's Brendan Murray.
Speaker 7: Let's bring in our next guest. This morning sent you
Speaker 7: up for the trading day. We saw nine and a
Speaker 7: half percent surage, you know, the S and P five
Speaker 7: hundred after the Tara pause was announced by the president.
Speaker 7: This morning, though US futures point to a lower open.
Speaker 7: Let's join Dan Morris, now the chief market strategist at
Speaker 7: BNP Paraba Asset Management. Dan, first off, let me just
Speaker 7: get your reaction. What was going through your head yesterday?
Speaker 9: Well, you know, it's it's you want to be able
Speaker 9: to say you expected it all along. Though nonetheless, our
Speaker 9: view initially had been that the terrors were negotiating tactic
Speaker 9: which adjusted at some point depending on the response that
Speaker 9: you had from the US trading partners. There would be
Speaker 9: a response for the administration. You just didn't exactly when
Speaker 9: or what or how. But the fact that we did
Speaker 9: get one eventually from that point of view, wasn't necessarily
Speaker 9: a surprise.
Speaker 7: Is the market reaction a reflex or a return to
Speaker 7: risk appetite?
Speaker 9: But I don't think we're quite that far yet. I
Speaker 9: mean we I guess if you think about what's happening
Speaker 9: in the futures right now. For all the reduction in
Speaker 9: the reciprocal tariffs that we had for most countries, of
Speaker 9: course you still have ten percent terras, which is a
Speaker 9: non trivial change that the market still needs to assess.
Speaker 9: There's all the uncertainty about how these negotiations go. As
Speaker 9: your previous guests mentioned, this is not going to happen overnight.
Speaker 9: And of course there's China, which is still a significant
Speaker 9: trading partner for the US. Even if we know the
Speaker 9: size or the trade isn't commensurate on both sides. It
Speaker 9: still matters and this is going to have an impact
Speaker 9: on companies in both markets.
Speaker 7: Yeah, well, let's talk about the impact with the first
Speaker 7: quarter results coming through. What are you going to be
Speaker 7: looking for for the results of companies?
Speaker 9: Well, I think at this point, you know, it's going
Speaker 9: to be nice to know how things were in the
Speaker 9: first quarter, but it's not going to tell us too
Speaker 9: much about the future. You're going to want to be
Speaker 9: looking at the guidance, and in fact, already over the
Speaker 9: last you know, a couple months, guidance has been a
Speaker 9: bit weak, though historically that tends to be the case
Speaker 9: around this time of the year, so it's hard to
Speaker 9: say that it's necessarily any worse than it has been historically.
Speaker 9: I think the dilemma is going to be both for
Speaker 9: investors and for companies, is you know, no one's really
Speaker 9: going to feel like they have a clear view on
Speaker 9: the future, So the guidance, you know, may be a
Speaker 9: lot of wait and see as opposed a definitive view
Speaker 9: on we think profits are going to go up or
Speaker 9: we think they're going to go.
Speaker 7: Down, As in so many cases like this, in moments
Speaker 7: of crisis, it is the bond vigilantes who kind of
Speaker 7: ride to the rescue in quotes, there is that the
Speaker 7: case that we saw yesterday.
Speaker 9: I don't know that that's so clear that there was
Speaker 9: strict by the bond market. I mean, even with you know,
Speaker 9: we've had obviously big moves in treasury yields, but if
Speaker 9: you look at the absolute level of yields, they're not
Speaker 9: all that extreme. And we obviously had fallen quite a
Speaker 9: bit previously when you were mor rid about the growth impact.
Speaker 9: But at the same time, you know, treasury yields had
Speaker 9: gotten up to nearly five percent not so long ago.
Speaker 9: So we're still honestly within that range. So I think
Speaker 9: the impact of the market on the decision, I think
Speaker 9: is debatable. Who knows what the actual mental maschinations were,
Speaker 9: but so far, again we're in that range. It's trying
Speaker 9: to assess the impact on growth, the impact on inflation
Speaker 9: policy moves from the Fed. But you know, compared to
Speaker 9: where you were prior to the election, it's not so different.
Speaker 7: All right, C plus G plus I that adds up
Speaker 7: to growth and GDP each of those components.
Speaker 9: What do you see, Well, consumption clear you know, always
Speaker 9: for the US is the key one. I think it
Speaker 9: was important that retail sales in February bounced back. Of course,
Speaker 9: now we're April and February seems like ancient history, but
Speaker 9: we certain they do want to keep an eye on
Speaker 9: how we see consumer demand holding up. What is going
Speaker 9: to be the impact again, even of those ten percent tariffs. Now,
Speaker 9: of course that doesn't mean everyone pays ten percent more.
Speaker 9: You're going to have people looking for alternative products and
Speaker 9: so on. But clearly that's going to be crucial. The
Speaker 9: investment honestly should pick up. But I also appreciate that's
Speaker 9: not immediate. And you know, we all know a new
Speaker 9: auto factor in the US isn't going to happen next month,
Speaker 9: So perhaps more positive for the outlook in the median term,
Speaker 9: you know, for a second quarter, first quarter GDP is
Speaker 9: not going to be too meaningful.
Speaker 7: And what is the signal from the markets this morning?
Speaker 7: I mean, futures are lowering after yesterday's surge.
Speaker 9: Well, gosh, volatility is the name of the game, so
Speaker 9: at any point you can see things swing quite a bit.
Speaker 9: And I think it's now trying to assess on one hand,
Speaker 9: the relative improvement in the outlook with the suspension of
Speaker 9: the reciprocal tariffs, but one trying to assess not only
Speaker 9: the impact of the current level of tariffs both from
Speaker 9: China and the US, how long are these going to stay?
Speaker 11: There?
Speaker 9: Is their scope for negotiation? How is that going to
Speaker 9: come about? And again, there's just as much uncertainty today
Speaker 9: as or was yesterday.
Speaker 7: Is ninety days even a realistic timeframe.
Speaker 9: In terms of getting actual deals?
Speaker 12: Probably not that.
Speaker 9: I don't think that necessarily is going to be the
Speaker 9: factor that Trump is going to look at in terms
Speaker 9: of determining how the terrorists progress from here. I think
Speaker 9: he's going to be looking for dialogue, and if he,
Speaker 9: I would imagine one doesn't want to conjecture, but one
Speaker 9: would I guess at least hope that if there's a dialogue,
Speaker 9: that's going to be sufficient, hopefully to mean the reciprocal
Speaker 9: tariff's stay off the table.
Speaker 7: And at this point, what are you telling clients? Is
Speaker 7: this a market you can get into or was it
Speaker 7: a false dawn yesterday?
Speaker 9: Well, in our multi asker portfolios, we're still a bit cautious.
Speaker 9: I think we would like a bit more certainty and
Speaker 9: a bit more sense of how things are going to
Speaker 9: involve with China. I mean you can't dismiss it and
Speaker 9: assume that everything is going to be positive now. So
Speaker 9: we're still pre pretty neutral in terms of allocations between
Speaker 9: inequities and bonds before feeling we have enough certainty to
Speaker 9: take a more leverage suit me a higher risk position
Speaker 9: in either market.
Speaker 7: Is there enough certainty at this point to give us
Speaker 7: some sort of recession call or non call.
Speaker 9: We weren't too There was always possibility of a recession,
Speaker 9: but that was in the assumption that the previous stair
Speaker 9: of state in place and definitely and we always thought
Speaker 9: there was a low probability of that, if not zero.
Speaker 9: So given that that's not the case, we would anticipate
Speaker 9: that they come back. We don't see a meaningful reception risk.
Speaker 7: And as far as here and call for the S
Speaker 7: and P five, I know that's unfair, but I'm going
Speaker 7: to put you.
Speaker 11: On the spot.
Speaker 9: Nonetheless, if we do come to an agreement with China,
Speaker 9: I think you would interstrate US growth and continuing to
Speaker 9: be positive, and that should lead to higher earnings and
Speaker 9: overtime higher equity prices.
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