1 00:00:15,410 --> 00:00:30,730 Speaker 1: Pushkin. The tenth of January nineteen eighty five is a 2 00:00:30,810 --> 00:00:36,250 Speaker 1: typical winter's day in London. The temperature is edging above freezing, 3 00:00:36,690 --> 00:00:41,330 Speaker 1: but only just a thin covering of snow is starting 4 00:00:41,330 --> 00:00:45,690 Speaker 1: to melt. A mix of salt and slush covers the roads. 5 00:00:47,770 --> 00:00:50,170 Speaker 1: Members of the media are making their way to the 6 00:00:50,210 --> 00:00:55,450 Speaker 1: grand surrounds of Alexandra Palace, a landmark Victorian concert and 7 00:00:55,610 --> 00:01:00,210 Speaker 1: exhibition hall, for the launch of a new product. They're 8 00:01:00,330 --> 00:01:03,210 Speaker 1: not sure what the product is that they're intrigued because 9 00:01:03,250 --> 00:01:07,770 Speaker 1: it's the brainchild of Sir Clive Sinclair, one of Britain's 10 00:01:07,770 --> 00:01:13,010 Speaker 1: most innovative entrepreneurs. Sir Clive made his money in technology. 11 00:01:13,570 --> 00:01:17,290 Speaker 1: His ZEDX eighty one and ZX Spectrum computers have been 12 00:01:17,530 --> 00:01:21,490 Speaker 1: wildly successful. Everyone wants to know what he'll do next, 13 00:01:22,050 --> 00:01:27,930 Speaker 1: and the rumor is that is making a car. The 14 00:01:28,050 --> 00:01:33,210 Speaker 1: journalists take their seats in an auditorium. Sir Clive's staff 15 00:01:33,290 --> 00:01:37,850 Speaker 1: buzz nervously around young women in stylish gray jumpsuits and 16 00:01:38,050 --> 00:01:42,450 Speaker 1: out press releases. The anticipation is palpable. 17 00:01:44,850 --> 00:01:48,850 Speaker 2: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for 18 00:01:48,970 --> 00:01:51,010 Speaker 2: coming to this press conference today. 19 00:01:51,570 --> 00:01:56,730 Speaker 1: Sir Clive Sinclair is forty four years old, bald, bespectacled 20 00:01:56,850 --> 00:02:00,250 Speaker 1: with a ginger beard, he looks like an archetypal geek. 21 00:02:01,130 --> 00:02:06,610 Speaker 1: Appearances can deceive. Sir Clive loves poetry and wild parties, 22 00:02:07,250 --> 00:02:10,970 Speaker 1: but he's certainly smart, at least by some measures. He's 23 00:02:10,970 --> 00:02:14,610 Speaker 1: the chairman of MENSA, the British society for people with 24 00:02:14,650 --> 00:02:19,170 Speaker 1: a high IQ. Sinclair's IQ is one one hundred and 25 00:02:19,250 --> 00:02:23,410 Speaker 1: fifty nine, which puts him roughly on a par with Einstein. 26 00:02:24,410 --> 00:02:26,730 Speaker 2: I'm going to start in a rather unusual fashion by 27 00:02:26,770 --> 00:02:29,810 Speaker 2: telling you what we're not announcing today, because there have 28 00:02:29,850 --> 00:02:34,770 Speaker 2: been some fairly confusing leaks. We're not announcing a conventional car. 29 00:02:35,490 --> 00:02:39,090 Speaker 2: Sinclair Vehicles Limited is dedicated to the development and production 30 00:02:39,250 --> 00:02:42,330 Speaker 2: of a full range of electric cars. But today we 31 00:02:42,410 --> 00:02:45,970 Speaker 2: have an electric vehicle, the first stage on the road 32 00:02:46,010 --> 00:02:46,970 Speaker 2: to the electric car. 33 00:02:48,210 --> 00:02:52,050 Speaker 1: Okay, so he's not launching a car right now, but 34 00:02:52,130 --> 00:02:58,730 Speaker 1: he is planning them. He's announcing an electric vehicle. What 35 00:02:58,770 --> 00:03:02,690 Speaker 1: could that mean? The journalists are getting even more intrigued 36 00:03:03,050 --> 00:03:07,370 Speaker 1: because there have indeed been some confusing leaks. They've heard 37 00:03:07,450 --> 00:03:11,890 Speaker 1: that Sinclair engaged the sports car maker Lotus to help 38 00:03:11,930 --> 00:03:16,650 Speaker 1: with the design of this mysterious vehicle that's exciting. James 39 00:03:16,650 --> 00:03:18,370 Speaker 1: Bond drives a lotus. 40 00:03:17,930 --> 00:03:20,010 Speaker 3: What cures for us. 41 00:03:20,210 --> 00:03:24,810 Speaker 1: And apparently the vehicle is being manufactured by Hoover at 42 00:03:24,850 --> 00:03:27,810 Speaker 1: a factory that also makes washing machines. 43 00:03:30,290 --> 00:03:32,810 Speaker 2: There have been several reports that the vehicle is made 44 00:03:32,810 --> 00:03:36,330 Speaker 2: of fiberglass. In fact, it's not. The body is the 45 00:03:36,330 --> 00:03:41,010 Speaker 2: world's largest mass produced injection molding. It's astonishingly light and 46 00:03:41,090 --> 00:03:45,850 Speaker 2: astonishingly strong, molded in the ICI wonder plastic polypropylea, which 47 00:03:45,890 --> 00:03:50,490 Speaker 2: has absolutely marvelous properties for a vehicle. Another fallacy is 48 00:03:50,530 --> 00:03:54,090 Speaker 2: that the vehicle is powered by a washing machine motor. True, 49 00:03:54,490 --> 00:03:57,250 Speaker 2: the Italian company that makes these motors does make washing 50 00:03:57,290 --> 00:04:00,770 Speaker 2: machine motors, but they also make torpedo motors. 51 00:04:01,410 --> 00:04:08,210 Speaker 1: A torpedo sleek and powerful. As Sir Clive built up 52 00:04:08,210 --> 00:04:12,090 Speaker 1: to the big review of the Mysterious Sinclair C five, 53 00:04:13,170 --> 00:04:16,410 Speaker 1: that is the mental connotation he wanted people to have, 54 00:04:17,410 --> 00:04:25,530 Speaker 1: not washing machine torpedo alas it was all too appropriate. 55 00:04:26,330 --> 00:04:30,930 Speaker 1: The CEE five was about the torpedo Sir Clive's career. 56 00:04:33,890 --> 00:05:03,770 Speaker 1: I'm Tim Harford and you're listening to cautionary tales. Clive 57 00:05:03,850 --> 00:05:07,170 Speaker 1: Sinclair was a teenager when he first began to dream 58 00:05:07,290 --> 00:05:12,370 Speaker 1: about cheap, pollution free electric transportation. He got a summer 59 00:05:12,450 --> 00:05:16,410 Speaker 1: internship at a local electronics company and pitched some ideas there. 60 00:05:17,010 --> 00:05:20,810 Speaker 1: But this was a company that made spectrometers and oscilloscopes. 61 00:05:22,170 --> 00:05:27,130 Speaker 1: They weren't about to start a transport revolution. Besides, nobody 62 00:05:27,170 --> 00:05:31,370 Speaker 1: then thought electric vehicles were practical outside of one very 63 00:05:31,410 --> 00:05:36,570 Speaker 1: particular niche the milk float around the country. These boxy 64 00:05:36,650 --> 00:05:40,730 Speaker 1: vehicles would glide along the pre dawned streets, bringing milk 65 00:05:40,810 --> 00:05:45,290 Speaker 1: to people's doorsteps. They were almost silent, so they wouldn't 66 00:05:45,290 --> 00:05:49,050 Speaker 1: wake you up. They were slow, which was fine when 67 00:05:49,050 --> 00:05:51,770 Speaker 1: you wanted to stop at every house, but it was 68 00:05:51,850 --> 00:05:55,290 Speaker 1: hard to imagine using an electric vehicle for anything else. 69 00:05:57,130 --> 00:06:01,530 Speaker 1: Sinclair left school at eighteen. He didn't bother with university. 70 00:06:01,810 --> 00:06:04,770 Speaker 1: He had already taught himself everything there was to know 71 00:06:05,090 --> 00:06:09,690 Speaker 1: about electronics. He got a job writing for Hobbyist Master magazines, 72 00:06:09,930 --> 00:06:13,490 Speaker 1: but what he really wanted to do was invent and 73 00:06:13,530 --> 00:06:18,130 Speaker 1: for that he'd need money. His break in business came 74 00:06:18,170 --> 00:06:21,170 Speaker 1: when he heard that a high end electronics firm called 75 00:06:21,210 --> 00:06:25,410 Speaker 1: Plessy had rejected a big batch of metal alloy transistors, 76 00:06:25,690 --> 00:06:30,570 Speaker 1: an essential building block of electronic circuits. Sinclair realized that 77 00:06:30,650 --> 00:06:35,090 Speaker 1: although the transistors had failed Plessy's quality control, many might 78 00:06:35,170 --> 00:06:39,050 Speaker 1: still work well enough for hobbyists to tinker with. He 79 00:06:39,130 --> 00:06:42,690 Speaker 1: bought them wholesale at a knockdown price and handed them 80 00:06:42,690 --> 00:06:43,610 Speaker 1: on to his wife. 81 00:06:44,010 --> 00:06:47,130 Speaker 4: The transistors used to arrive in sacks about the size 82 00:06:47,130 --> 00:06:50,690 Speaker 4: of a sack of potatoes. I had test equipment consisting 83 00:06:50,730 --> 00:06:53,370 Speaker 4: of a box that gave a different pitched buzz according 84 00:06:53,410 --> 00:06:56,050 Speaker 4: to the transistor, and I must have tested. 85 00:06:55,610 --> 00:06:56,930 Speaker 1: A million of them altogether. 86 00:06:57,930 --> 00:07:01,730 Speaker 4: It really became monotonous because I'd no sooner finished one 87 00:07:01,770 --> 00:07:03,290 Speaker 4: sack than another would turn up. 88 00:07:05,490 --> 00:07:08,930 Speaker 1: Sinclair Radionics went from strength to strength in the nineteen 89 00:07:08,930 --> 00:07:13,850 Speaker 1: shis sixties, selling diy kits for enthusiasts to build ingenious 90 00:07:13,850 --> 00:07:18,610 Speaker 1: little devices that Sinclair designed, such as pocket radios. With 91 00:07:18,770 --> 00:07:23,410 Speaker 1: money coming in, Sinclair invented He tried putting a motor 92 00:07:23,530 --> 00:07:26,650 Speaker 1: on a scooter and rode it around his office, But 93 00:07:26,890 --> 00:07:32,250 Speaker 1: soon another brainchild took all his attention, the pocket calculator. 94 00:07:33,130 --> 00:07:35,970 Speaker 1: Like his radios, they were tiny, the size of a 95 00:07:36,050 --> 00:07:41,050 Speaker 1: packet of cigarettes, and they were cheap. Sinclair's calculators were 96 00:07:41,170 --> 00:07:46,250 Speaker 1: a huge success. True some of his inventions failed. Pocket 97 00:07:46,370 --> 00:07:50,730 Speaker 1: televisions never really took off as it hoped digital watches did, 98 00:07:51,090 --> 00:07:55,130 Speaker 1: but Sinclair's watches had production problems. Sinclair had to sit 99 00:07:55,290 --> 00:07:59,690 Speaker 1: on the sidelines as other watchmakers prospered. But it was 100 00:07:59,850 --> 00:08:05,370 Speaker 1: micro computers that made Clive Sinclair's name. They were genuinely revolutionary, 101 00:08:05,890 --> 00:08:10,050 Speaker 1: smaller and cheaper than anything the market could see. His 102 00:08:10,250 --> 00:08:14,290 Speaker 1: fantastically popular ZX spectrum launched at a sixth of the 103 00:08:14,370 --> 00:08:18,850 Speaker 1: price of an Apple two. In the first half of 104 00:08:18,850 --> 00:08:23,610 Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties, Sinclair sold about five million computers around 105 00:08:23,610 --> 00:08:28,130 Speaker 1: the world, more than Apple, more than IBM. Only the 106 00:08:28,170 --> 00:08:33,730 Speaker 1: American firm Commodore sold more. Fortune magazine sent a reporter 107 00:08:33,970 --> 00:08:38,810 Speaker 1: to investigate the world's top producer of tiny computers is 108 00:08:38,850 --> 00:08:42,570 Speaker 1: a slightly astonished English company headquartered in a jumble of 109 00:08:42,610 --> 00:08:47,770 Speaker 1: tiny rooms and retiginous staircases across from Gothic King's College, Cambridge. 110 00:08:49,090 --> 00:08:52,570 Speaker 1: Astonished or not, Clive Sinclair was now right up there 111 00:08:52,610 --> 00:08:56,130 Speaker 1: with Steve Jobs and Bill Gates. He seemed to be 112 00:08:56,210 --> 00:09:00,290 Speaker 1: demonstrating that geeky britz could rule the high tech world. 113 00:09:00,610 --> 00:09:03,090 Speaker 1: He was a regular guest of the Prime Minister Margaret 114 00:09:03,130 --> 00:09:09,650 Speaker 1: Thatcher at ten Downing Street Coute at the Queen awarded 115 00:09:09,690 --> 00:09:13,610 Speaker 1: him a knighthood. One British government official explained to The 116 00:09:13,650 --> 00:09:16,250 Speaker 1: New York Times that Sir Clive seemed to have a 117 00:09:16,290 --> 00:09:20,410 Speaker 1: gift for thinking of new things that seem obvious after 118 00:09:20,450 --> 00:09:24,610 Speaker 1: he's done them. The average entrepreneur may have one such idea. 119 00:09:25,170 --> 00:09:28,770 Speaker 1: Clive has had a string of them. And there was 120 00:09:28,930 --> 00:09:33,530 Speaker 1: something Sinclair had dreamed of making since he was a teenager. 121 00:09:34,290 --> 00:09:40,690 Speaker 1: Electric cars. The time now seemed ripe. After the oil 122 00:09:40,770 --> 00:09:44,650 Speaker 1: price shocks of the nineteen seventies, government planners were starting 123 00:09:44,650 --> 00:09:50,010 Speaker 1: to wander about alternatives to gasoline. Sinclair sketched out plans 124 00:09:50,050 --> 00:09:53,570 Speaker 1: for a compact two seater car for urban travel and 125 00:09:53,690 --> 00:09:57,290 Speaker 1: proper full sized electric cars for doing long journeys at 126 00:09:57,290 --> 00:10:00,970 Speaker 1: motorway speeds. But he decided to build up to this 127 00:10:01,090 --> 00:10:05,410 Speaker 1: grand vision by starting small. Sinclair had spotted a gap 128 00:10:05,410 --> 00:10:08,970 Speaker 1: in the market. A lot of journeys were short and solitary, 129 00:10:09,370 --> 00:10:12,170 Speaker 1: getting to the railway station for the morning commute going 130 00:10:12,170 --> 00:10:16,290 Speaker 1: to the shops. Research showed that the average car traveled 131 00:10:16,410 --> 00:10:20,970 Speaker 1: just thirteen miles a day gasoline powered mopeds even less. 132 00:10:21,850 --> 00:10:25,610 Speaker 1: There was clearly an opportunity to offer a smaller, cheaper, 133 00:10:26,010 --> 00:10:32,490 Speaker 1: battery powered alternative way to make those journeys. Sinclair started 134 00:10:32,490 --> 00:10:36,730 Speaker 1: to develop ideas for a small electric vehicle, the first 135 00:10:36,770 --> 00:10:39,930 Speaker 1: stage on the road to the electric car, as did 136 00:10:39,970 --> 00:10:44,930 Speaker 1: later put it at the launch. Then came an unexpected opportunity. 137 00:10:45,490 --> 00:10:49,970 Speaker 1: The British government published new regulations that created a new 138 00:10:50,290 --> 00:10:56,730 Speaker 1: category of vehicle, the electrically assisted pedal cycle. To drive 139 00:10:56,770 --> 00:10:59,290 Speaker 1: a car on British roads, he had to pay an 140 00:10:59,330 --> 00:11:05,010 Speaker 1: annual tax and insurance and have a license. Electrically assisted 141 00:11:05,090 --> 00:11:08,850 Speaker 1: pedal cycles would be exempt from all that. He wouldn't 142 00:11:08,850 --> 00:11:11,410 Speaker 1: even have to wear a crash helmet, and you could 143 00:11:11,490 --> 00:11:17,170 Speaker 1: drive them aged just fourteen. Sinclair was excited. He realized 144 00:11:17,210 --> 00:11:20,050 Speaker 1: that the vehicle he had been developing could easily be 145 00:11:20,170 --> 00:11:23,610 Speaker 1: tweaked to fit with these new regulations. It just need 146 00:11:23,650 --> 00:11:27,090 Speaker 1: to add pedals, so it would technically be a pedal cycle, 147 00:11:27,610 --> 00:11:30,690 Speaker 1: and it'd had to reduce the maximum speed from thirty 148 00:11:30,730 --> 00:11:36,850 Speaker 1: miles an hour to fifteen. He could do that. Sir 149 00:11:36,850 --> 00:11:39,810 Speaker 1: Clive was determined to keep the details of his new 150 00:11:39,890 --> 00:11:43,370 Speaker 1: vehicle a secret from the public until he was ready 151 00:11:43,410 --> 00:11:46,730 Speaker 1: to surprise them with a big launch event. When he 152 00:11:46,810 --> 00:11:51,050 Speaker 1: needed partners such as Lotus or Hoover, he approached them 153 00:11:51,250 --> 00:11:57,050 Speaker 1: in strictest confidence. The reaction was always the same. They 154 00:11:57,090 --> 00:12:00,330 Speaker 1: were skeptical, but he expected that if. 155 00:12:00,250 --> 00:12:02,450 Speaker 2: An idea is good enough, it's going to appear pretty 156 00:12:02,450 --> 00:12:04,370 Speaker 2: crazy at almost everybody. 157 00:12:04,530 --> 00:12:08,730 Speaker 1: Then the skeptics tried out the prototype and they loved it. 158 00:12:09,490 --> 00:12:12,810 Speaker 1: The Sea five was terrific fun to drive. Everyone who 159 00:12:12,890 --> 00:12:17,290 Speaker 1: tried it agreed. Sinclair invited regulators from the Department for 160 00:12:17,370 --> 00:12:20,250 Speaker 1: Transport to look at his new vehicle and make sure 161 00:12:20,290 --> 00:12:24,890 Speaker 1: they were satisfied that it met their regulations. They were startled. 162 00:12:25,410 --> 00:12:29,690 Speaker 1: What was this thing? It didn't look like a pedal cycle. Still, 163 00:12:29,730 --> 00:12:33,210 Speaker 1: they had to admit it met the regulations to the letter. 164 00:12:34,570 --> 00:12:38,130 Speaker 1: It was becoming harder and harder to keep his design 165 00:12:38,330 --> 00:12:42,290 Speaker 1: under wraps. More and more confusing rumors were starting to 166 00:12:42,330 --> 00:12:47,130 Speaker 1: circulate about Sinclair's plans for electric cars. He decided he 167 00:12:47,210 --> 00:12:51,090 Speaker 1: couldn't delay the reveal of the Sinclair Sea five any longer. 168 00:12:51,850 --> 00:12:55,610 Speaker 1: He booked Alexandra Palace and invited the press. 169 00:12:56,250 --> 00:12:59,290 Speaker 2: It's a very nerve wracking time. I could lose all 170 00:12:59,290 --> 00:13:02,650 Speaker 2: my money. I don't mind not having any money, but 171 00:13:02,730 --> 00:13:04,810 Speaker 2: it would be annoying in the sense that I couldn't 172 00:13:04,850 --> 00:13:05,850 Speaker 2: do what I want to do. 173 00:13:06,970 --> 00:13:09,810 Speaker 1: Everyone was on tenter hooks to see what Sir Clive 174 00:13:09,890 --> 00:13:13,370 Speaker 1: had been working on. Imagine if Bill Gates or Steve 175 00:13:13,490 --> 00:13:16,890 Speaker 1: Jobs had suddenly decided, at the height of their success, 176 00:13:17,290 --> 00:13:21,090 Speaker 1: to disrupt the auto industry by making a totally new 177 00:13:21,250 --> 00:13:24,970 Speaker 1: kind of vehicle. It was bound to be something good, 178 00:13:26,210 --> 00:13:42,570 Speaker 1: wasn't it. In a dapper blue suit on a cold 179 00:13:42,730 --> 00:13:47,650 Speaker 1: January morning, Sir Clive Sinclair is building up the mysterious 180 00:13:47,770 --> 00:13:51,490 Speaker 1: Sinclair C five to the assembled British media. 181 00:13:52,850 --> 00:13:56,570 Speaker 2: Almost everything has been designed and tooled from scratch for us. 182 00:13:57,090 --> 00:14:01,970 Speaker 2: The lights, batteries, motors, electronic control system. We have a 183 00:14:01,970 --> 00:14:06,770 Speaker 2: custom chip that monitors everything and controls everything. Get into 184 00:14:06,810 --> 00:14:09,210 Speaker 2: the vehicle and you don't have to think about it. 185 00:14:09,210 --> 00:14:10,250 Speaker 2: It's all done for you. 186 00:14:10,970 --> 00:14:15,490 Speaker 1: At last, it's time for the big reveal. Around the 187 00:14:15,530 --> 00:14:19,530 Speaker 1: arena are six boxes covered with sheets of paper. At 188 00:14:19,530 --> 00:14:25,330 Speaker 1: the front. Simultaneously, six Sinclair Sea fives burst through the paper, 189 00:14:25,650 --> 00:14:30,130 Speaker 1: driven by more young women in gray jumpsuits. Music booms, 190 00:14:30,410 --> 00:14:34,450 Speaker 1: cameras flash. Six Sea fives complete a circuit of the 191 00:14:34,530 --> 00:14:42,210 Speaker 1: room and come to halt in a line. Sinclair Sea five. 192 00:14:43,210 --> 00:14:45,810 Speaker 1: If you've never seen one, how do I describe it? 193 00:14:46,850 --> 00:14:51,290 Speaker 1: You can start by picturing a white plastic bathtub. That's 194 00:14:51,330 --> 00:14:54,090 Speaker 1: how it struck one reporter at the launch, and frankly, 195 00:14:54,130 --> 00:14:57,050 Speaker 1: it's a little unfair. The Sea five does have some 196 00:14:57,330 --> 00:15:01,410 Speaker 1: touches of sportscar styling, So take away the two sides 197 00:15:01,410 --> 00:15:06,210 Speaker 1: of the plastic bathtub and curve the front aerodynamically inwards, 198 00:15:06,970 --> 00:15:09,610 Speaker 1: like in a bath. You sit reclined and load to 199 00:15:09,650 --> 00:15:12,530 Speaker 1: the ground, your legs stretched out in front of you. 200 00:15:13,250 --> 00:15:18,610 Speaker 1: It's like a streamlined, low slung mobility scooter or a 201 00:15:18,650 --> 00:15:23,650 Speaker 1: sleek motorized lawn mower, or maybe it's like riding around 202 00:15:23,650 --> 00:15:28,010 Speaker 1: in a giant white slip on shoe, or I don't know. 203 00:15:28,610 --> 00:15:33,050 Speaker 1: It's not really like anything. Actually, the C five is unique. 204 00:15:34,250 --> 00:15:36,650 Speaker 1: There are two wheels at the back and one at 205 00:15:36,690 --> 00:15:39,010 Speaker 1: the front, and you can pedal should you need to. 206 00:15:39,530 --> 00:15:42,930 Speaker 1: But the twelve vault electric battery claims a range of 207 00:15:42,970 --> 00:15:47,890 Speaker 1: twenty miles. The controls are unorthodox. You don't have your 208 00:15:47,930 --> 00:15:49,770 Speaker 1: hands out in front of you, as you would on 209 00:15:49,810 --> 00:15:53,330 Speaker 1: a steering wheel or the handlebars of a bike. Instead, 210 00:15:53,690 --> 00:15:57,730 Speaker 1: both steering and speed are controlled by levers positioned by 211 00:15:57,770 --> 00:16:01,290 Speaker 1: your thighs, where your arms will naturally come to rest 212 00:16:01,330 --> 00:16:06,290 Speaker 1: as you sit Sinclair explains that the first vehicles have 213 00:16:06,490 --> 00:16:09,690 Speaker 1: already rolled off the production lines and you can buy 214 00:16:09,730 --> 00:16:15,010 Speaker 1: them right now. He announces a multi million pound advertising 215 00:16:15,050 --> 00:16:19,330 Speaker 1: campaign and plays the first television spot to the watching press. 216 00:16:19,970 --> 00:16:23,010 Speaker 3: Imagine a vehicle that can drive you five miles for 217 00:16:23,090 --> 00:16:27,450 Speaker 3: a penny. A vehicle that needs no petrol, just a battery, 218 00:16:28,450 --> 00:16:30,490 Speaker 3: and that takes the press of a button to start, 219 00:16:30,850 --> 00:16:34,690 Speaker 3: the squeeze of a lever to stop, that needs no license, 220 00:16:35,010 --> 00:16:37,970 Speaker 3: no road chacks, and you can drive whether you're fourteen 221 00:16:38,650 --> 00:16:43,250 Speaker 3: or forteen. A vehicle that costs just three hundred and 222 00:16:43,410 --> 00:16:50,330 Speaker 3: ninety nine pounds, the Sinclair Sea five. It's a new 223 00:16:50,410 --> 00:16:53,210 Speaker 3: part in personal transport. 224 00:16:54,330 --> 00:16:58,570 Speaker 1: Everyone heads outside into the grounds of Alexandra Palace. There's 225 00:16:58,770 --> 00:17:02,170 Speaker 1: snow on the lawns, but the footpaths are clear. Sir 226 00:17:02,210 --> 00:17:05,690 Speaker 1: Clive wraps a gray scarf around his neck and poses 227 00:17:05,730 --> 00:17:09,530 Speaker 1: for photos in a C five. Now the journals are 228 00:17:09,530 --> 00:17:12,770 Speaker 1: invited to have a go, and this is where things 229 00:17:12,810 --> 00:17:17,530 Speaker 1: start to unravel. Remember all those skeptics who had been 230 00:17:17,530 --> 00:17:20,530 Speaker 1: won over by discovering how much fun the Sea five 231 00:17:20,730 --> 00:17:23,970 Speaker 1: was to drive if they'd driven it around test tracks 232 00:17:24,210 --> 00:17:27,850 Speaker 1: in controlled conditions, they hadn't driven it on an actual 233 00:17:27,970 --> 00:17:33,210 Speaker 1: public road in real world traffic in January, nobody had 234 00:17:34,050 --> 00:17:34,690 Speaker 1: until now. 235 00:17:35,410 --> 00:17:39,610 Speaker 2: There are obvious disadvantages. The tiny Sea five is dwarfed 236 00:17:39,650 --> 00:17:43,330 Speaker 2: by other traffic. Its critics predict chaos on the roads. 237 00:17:43,970 --> 00:17:48,130 Speaker 1: That's the reporter from ITV News. The footage shows a 238 00:17:48,170 --> 00:17:52,810 Speaker 1: C five driver nervously hand signaling their intention to turn 239 00:17:53,370 --> 00:17:56,850 Speaker 1: and traversing across a lane of traffic as an eighteen 240 00:17:56,970 --> 00:18:00,410 Speaker 1: ton truck bears down on them. Then we see the 241 00:18:00,450 --> 00:18:04,050 Speaker 1: reporter waiting in his CE five at stop lights behind 242 00:18:04,090 --> 00:18:06,810 Speaker 1: a car. As the lights turn green and the car 243 00:18:06,890 --> 00:18:11,170 Speaker 1: moves off, it belches a cloud of exhaust fumes right 244 00:18:11,410 --> 00:18:15,890 Speaker 1: into the reporter's face. Nothing could compensate for the sheer 245 00:18:16,010 --> 00:18:18,890 Speaker 1: feeling of vulnerability. My head was on a level with 246 00:18:18,970 --> 00:18:21,610 Speaker 1: the top of a juggernaut's tires. I could not feel 247 00:18:21,610 --> 00:18:24,410 Speaker 1: confident as a lorry driver so high above the ground 248 00:18:24,450 --> 00:18:31,370 Speaker 1: would see me. That was the Daily Telegraphs Review. Sinclair 249 00:18:31,610 --> 00:18:34,690 Speaker 1: had thought about safety, of course, He'd even made sure 250 00:18:34,730 --> 00:18:37,610 Speaker 1: to get a supportive quote from the regulators at the 251 00:18:37,770 --> 00:18:42,850 Speaker 1: UK's Department for Transport. As an alternative to pedal cycles, 252 00:18:42,890 --> 00:18:48,490 Speaker 1: it is not thought likely to have a worse safety record. Actually, 253 00:18:48,770 --> 00:18:53,450 Speaker 1: That doesn't really inspire confidence, does it. Sinclair had also 254 00:18:53,530 --> 00:18:57,370 Speaker 1: produced a whole range of safety features, but because he'd 255 00:18:57,370 --> 00:19:01,050 Speaker 1: wanted to keep the headline price below four hundred pounds 256 00:19:01,370 --> 00:19:05,250 Speaker 1: roughly two thousand dollars in today's money, he'd decided to 257 00:19:05,330 --> 00:19:09,770 Speaker 1: make them all optional extras. If you wanted drivers to 258 00:19:09,770 --> 00:19:13,410 Speaker 1: see you, you could buy a high visibility mast, that's 259 00:19:13,610 --> 00:19:16,450 Speaker 1: a pole with a flagon. That would cost seven pounds 260 00:19:16,530 --> 00:19:19,690 Speaker 1: ninety five. How about a horn to alert the truck 261 00:19:19,770 --> 00:19:22,130 Speaker 1: driver that you're right in front of them. That'll be 262 00:19:22,170 --> 00:19:25,490 Speaker 1: another seven pounds ninety five. Wing mirrors so you can 263 00:19:25,530 --> 00:19:29,090 Speaker 1: see that there's a truck behind you fourteen pounds ninety five. 264 00:19:29,890 --> 00:19:34,330 Speaker 1: It wasn't just safety features that Sinclair had relegated to accessories, 265 00:19:34,850 --> 00:19:37,930 Speaker 1: so was protection from the weather, and launching in the 266 00:19:37,970 --> 00:19:41,010 Speaker 1: middle of the British winter made weather hard to ignore. 267 00:19:41,650 --> 00:19:44,290 Speaker 1: People soon discovered that if they took their Sea five 268 00:19:44,370 --> 00:19:47,330 Speaker 1: out on wet roads, the spray from the wheels would 269 00:19:47,410 --> 00:19:51,770 Speaker 1: leave the inside of the vehicle dirtier than the outside. 270 00:19:51,850 --> 00:19:55,370 Speaker 1: You could get mudflaps for six pound ninety five a pair, 271 00:19:55,970 --> 00:20:00,210 Speaker 1: and side panels for nineteen pounds ninety five. They attached 272 00:20:00,410 --> 00:20:04,050 Speaker 1: with velcrow. For thirty four pounds ninety five, you could 273 00:20:04,050 --> 00:20:07,850 Speaker 1: get a coat that attached with velcro to the side panels, 274 00:20:08,050 --> 00:20:10,650 Speaker 1: like driving around with your head sticking out of a 275 00:20:10,730 --> 00:20:15,010 Speaker 1: tent on wheels. More than just protection against the weather, 276 00:20:15,330 --> 00:20:18,770 Speaker 1: the Sea five weather cheetah is a fashionable piece of 277 00:20:18,850 --> 00:20:22,610 Speaker 1: leisure wear in its own right. Its designer styling means 278 00:20:22,610 --> 00:20:25,410 Speaker 1: that you'll often find that you wear it even when 279 00:20:25,450 --> 00:20:29,010 Speaker 1: you're not using your Sea five, or so said the 280 00:20:29,050 --> 00:20:34,090 Speaker 1: optimistic Sinclair brochure. The velcrow clad raincoat did not strike 281 00:20:34,170 --> 00:20:37,410 Speaker 1: most people as a fashionable piece of leisure were but 282 00:20:37,450 --> 00:20:40,730 Speaker 1: the rain wasn't the biggest problem with the January launch. 283 00:20:41,610 --> 00:20:43,410 Speaker 1: Sinclair later explained. 284 00:20:44,090 --> 00:20:47,810 Speaker 2: We hadn't realized that the batteries virtually packed up in 285 00:20:47,850 --> 00:20:48,810 Speaker 2: freezing conditions. 286 00:20:49,730 --> 00:20:53,410 Speaker 1: The reporter from the Daily Telegraph soon found that out 287 00:20:54,370 --> 00:20:57,410 Speaker 1: The instructions were quite simple. Sit in, switch on, and 288 00:20:57,450 --> 00:21:01,410 Speaker 1: go and go. The Sinclair Sea five certainly did for 289 00:21:01,450 --> 00:21:05,650 Speaker 1: seven minutes. Then the first battery ran flat. I peddled 290 00:21:05,690 --> 00:21:08,530 Speaker 1: the Sea five back to the service point. My legs 291 00:21:08,530 --> 00:21:11,090 Speaker 1: are still a king, even though the slopes were gentle. 292 00:21:11,890 --> 00:21:15,530 Speaker 1: The Sea five's motor was attached to its rear left wheel, 293 00:21:15,970 --> 00:21:19,210 Speaker 1: the brake to the wheel on the right. It turned 294 00:21:19,250 --> 00:21:22,570 Speaker 1: out that when the roads were icy, either accelerating or 295 00:21:22,650 --> 00:21:26,170 Speaker 1: braking was liable to send you into a spin. This 296 00:21:26,410 --> 00:21:29,930 Speaker 1: must have been fun on a test track. Not so 297 00:21:30,050 --> 00:21:31,970 Speaker 1: much if you're in front of a juggernaut. 298 00:21:36,130 --> 00:21:39,050 Speaker 5: The idea of fourteen year old kids taking these things 299 00:21:39,330 --> 00:21:44,690 Speaker 5: on the roads like today, no license, no insurance, no training, 300 00:21:45,170 --> 00:21:47,330 Speaker 5: no seatbell prankically horrifies me. 301 00:21:48,210 --> 00:21:52,530 Speaker 1: Tweaking the Sea five's design to meet the electrically assisted 302 00:21:52,570 --> 00:21:57,250 Speaker 1: pedal cycle regulations had seemed like a master stroke, but 303 00:21:57,570 --> 00:22:01,770 Speaker 1: it had distracted Sinclair from his original vision of progress 304 00:22:01,850 --> 00:22:06,610 Speaker 1: towards a fully functioning electric car, and now it looked 305 00:22:06,690 --> 00:22:13,250 Speaker 1: like a public relations disaster. Despite the terrible early reviews, 306 00:22:13,610 --> 00:22:17,570 Speaker 1: Sir Clive still had some customers. In February, the month 307 00:22:17,610 --> 00:22:20,810 Speaker 1: after the launch, the London Times went out to meet 308 00:22:20,850 --> 00:22:25,090 Speaker 1: some early adopters, such as this retiree. I was very 309 00:22:25,130 --> 00:22:28,450 Speaker 1: excited when it first arrived, but the first time I 310 00:22:28,530 --> 00:22:30,810 Speaker 1: tried it out, it just would not go up a 311 00:22:30,890 --> 00:22:35,730 Speaker 1: hill and I had to come home. Sinclair tried desperately 312 00:22:35,810 --> 00:22:40,530 Speaker 1: to reboot public interest. He hired unemployed teenagers to drive 313 00:22:40,650 --> 00:22:44,330 Speaker 1: Sea fives around major British cities, but the more that 314 00:22:44,410 --> 00:22:49,370 Speaker 1: people bought Sea fives, the more complaints piled up. Sinclair 315 00:22:49,450 --> 00:22:52,770 Speaker 1: had claimed the battery would last for twenty miles, for 316 00:22:52,890 --> 00:22:56,730 Speaker 1: many it was more like ten. To meet the regulations, 317 00:22:56,770 --> 00:23:00,090 Speaker 1: the Sea five was limited to fifteen miles per hour. 318 00:23:00,890 --> 00:23:03,770 Speaker 1: In practice, people said they topped out at twelve and 319 00:23:03,810 --> 00:23:07,690 Speaker 1: a half. Worse still, by the time you factored in 320 00:23:07,730 --> 00:23:10,930 Speaker 1: the need to replace the battle, it arguably wasn't much 321 00:23:11,010 --> 00:23:15,450 Speaker 1: cheaper to run than a moped powered by gasoline. The 322 00:23:15,570 --> 00:23:19,890 Speaker 1: UK's Consumer Association took their time to gather the evidence, 323 00:23:20,370 --> 00:23:24,530 Speaker 1: and in summer they delivered a succinct and damning verdict. 324 00:23:25,170 --> 00:23:28,730 Speaker 1: How far a lot less than claimed, How fast, hard 325 00:23:28,730 --> 00:23:32,770 Speaker 1: to keep up with traffic, handling and braking adequate? How safe? 326 00:23:33,090 --> 00:23:38,210 Speaker 1: Not very good? How maneuverable? Disappointing? How secure? Too easy 327 00:23:38,210 --> 00:23:43,170 Speaker 1: to steal? How reliable? Not promising? Our verdict of limited 328 00:23:43,250 --> 00:23:49,010 Speaker 1: use in its present form, poor value for money. By August, 329 00:23:49,410 --> 00:23:54,130 Speaker 1: retailers were desperate to offload their C five stock. They 330 00:23:54,170 --> 00:23:57,010 Speaker 1: cut the price by more than half, and with all 331 00:23:57,050 --> 00:24:02,450 Speaker 1: the accessories thrown in two in September, Sinclair stopped production 332 00:24:03,690 --> 00:24:07,090 Speaker 1: and on the eleventh of October, just nine months after 333 00:24:07,130 --> 00:24:12,970 Speaker 1: the launch, Sir Clive publicly announced that Sinclair Vehicles Limited 334 00:24:13,610 --> 00:24:19,090 Speaker 1: was closing down. It originally planned to manufacture eight thousand 335 00:24:19,290 --> 00:24:24,730 Speaker 1: Sea fives every week. He'd sold fourteen thousand in total, 336 00:24:25,330 --> 00:24:30,210 Speaker 1: not even a fortnight's worth. Why was the Sea five 337 00:24:30,570 --> 00:24:35,130 Speaker 1: such a disaster? The answer isn't quite what you might think. 338 00:24:35,770 --> 00:24:49,170 Speaker 1: But more on that in a moment. Why did the 339 00:24:49,210 --> 00:24:53,730 Speaker 1: Sinclair Sea five fail? That might seem like a silly question, 340 00:24:54,370 --> 00:24:57,730 Speaker 1: haven't we heard more than enough reasons already? But it's 341 00:24:57,810 --> 00:25:02,650 Speaker 1: not a silly question because look around you. Electric cars 342 00:25:02,770 --> 00:25:07,090 Speaker 1: are fast becoming the norm, just as Sinclair envisaged they would. 343 00:25:07,450 --> 00:25:10,890 Speaker 1: Electric bikes are popular with and if you live in 344 00:25:10,930 --> 00:25:14,770 Speaker 1: a major city, it's probably got shared electric scooters that 345 00:25:14,810 --> 00:25:18,730 Speaker 1: you pick up, unlock with an app, ride to your destination, 346 00:25:19,130 --> 00:25:23,450 Speaker 1: and leave there. Sir Clive Sinclair invented the C five 347 00:25:23,850 --> 00:25:29,250 Speaker 1: because he thought short urban journeys needed small electric vehicles. 348 00:25:29,810 --> 00:25:32,250 Speaker 1: Now we have them. 349 00:25:32,410 --> 00:25:33,930 Speaker 2: It was a good idea then. 350 00:25:33,850 --> 00:25:37,570 Speaker 1: And now, he said in twenty ten, I should have. 351 00:25:37,490 --> 00:25:41,130 Speaker 2: Handled it differently. It could have succeeded. I rushed at 352 00:25:41,170 --> 00:25:41,730 Speaker 2: it too much. 353 00:25:45,890 --> 00:25:49,650 Speaker 1: A few years after the C five debacle, the European 354 00:25:49,770 --> 00:25:53,810 Speaker 1: Journal of Marketing published an article looking for the lessons. 355 00:25:54,450 --> 00:25:57,610 Speaker 1: The C five was a classic example of what marketers 356 00:25:57,730 --> 00:26:02,170 Speaker 1: call a technology push innovation, where you invent something and 357 00:26:02,410 --> 00:26:05,490 Speaker 1: hope that people will want it. The opposite is a 358 00:26:05,530 --> 00:26:09,330 Speaker 1: demand pull innovation, where you figure out what people want 359 00:26:09,570 --> 00:26:13,730 Speaker 1: and try to invent it. There's nothing wrong with technology 360 00:26:13,810 --> 00:26:18,850 Speaker 1: push innovations. They can succeed brilliantly. Nobody knew they wanted 361 00:26:18,850 --> 00:26:22,850 Speaker 1: a pocket sized calculator until Sinclair came up with them 362 00:26:23,050 --> 00:26:26,730 Speaker 1: in nineteen eighty. Computers were seen as tools for business. 363 00:26:27,410 --> 00:26:31,730 Speaker 1: Would people really want cheaper portable computers as toys in 364 00:26:31,810 --> 00:26:35,810 Speaker 1: the home? Well, yes, with hindsight, but at the time 365 00:26:36,450 --> 00:26:41,410 Speaker 1: it was a gamble. But usually with a technology push innovation, 366 00:26:42,050 --> 00:26:44,810 Speaker 1: you'll want a bit of consumer feedback before you go 367 00:26:44,970 --> 00:26:49,570 Speaker 1: all in, for example, through market research. Sir Clive didn't 368 00:26:49,610 --> 00:26:52,930 Speaker 1: believe in any of that. He thought people didn't know 369 00:26:52,970 --> 00:26:55,370 Speaker 1: what they wanted yet, and he was happy to bed 370 00:26:55,410 --> 00:26:58,530 Speaker 1: on his own instincts about that. When he did a 371 00:26:58,570 --> 00:27:01,130 Speaker 1: focus group for the C five, it was only to 372 00:27:01,250 --> 00:27:03,930 Speaker 1: check if people thought the controls were in the right position. 373 00:27:04,570 --> 00:27:07,450 Speaker 1: He wasn't much interested in what they thought of the product. Itself. 374 00:27:08,210 --> 00:27:12,170 Speaker 1: If he had been Sinclair might have discovered the problems 375 00:27:12,210 --> 00:27:16,410 Speaker 1: that became apparent only on the launch day. And if 376 00:27:16,450 --> 00:27:19,170 Speaker 1: it had been sent back to the drawing board, perhaps 377 00:27:19,210 --> 00:27:22,490 Speaker 1: he'd have launched a different product first. He might have 378 00:27:22,530 --> 00:27:25,730 Speaker 1: gone straight to his two seater city car you see 379 00:27:25,730 --> 00:27:28,930 Speaker 1: those on the streets now. Perhaps he could have revived 380 00:27:28,970 --> 00:27:31,650 Speaker 1: the scooter he had played around within his office a 381 00:27:31,690 --> 00:27:34,890 Speaker 1: decade before, or maybe he could have pitched the C 382 00:27:35,210 --> 00:27:38,490 Speaker 1: five to a different market. Might it have taken hold 383 00:27:38,530 --> 00:27:41,930 Speaker 1: as a toy for rich people or in vacation resorts 384 00:27:42,050 --> 00:27:46,930 Speaker 1: or golf courses. Perhaps it might. But often there's a 385 00:27:46,970 --> 00:27:50,370 Speaker 1: deeper reason why good ideas fail, and to find out 386 00:27:50,370 --> 00:27:53,770 Speaker 1: what it is, let's rewind to a year before the 387 00:27:53,850 --> 00:27:57,450 Speaker 1: launch of the Sinclair C five in nineteen eighty four, 388 00:27:57,970 --> 00:28:01,050 Speaker 1: Sir Clive is giving a speech to the US Congressional 389 00:28:01,090 --> 00:28:02,730 Speaker 1: Clearinghouse on the future. 390 00:28:03,490 --> 00:28:07,490 Speaker 2: I anticipate totally automatic personal vehicles, still with all the 391 00:28:07,530 --> 00:28:10,370 Speaker 2: freedom in space and time of to day cars, but 392 00:28:10,530 --> 00:28:14,370 Speaker 2: guided by machine intelligence. They will be powered by electricity 393 00:28:14,450 --> 00:28:17,490 Speaker 2: drawn from internal batteries and towns and on minor roads, 394 00:28:17,810 --> 00:28:21,490 Speaker 2: and from a main supply on the highways, possibly inductively 395 00:28:21,490 --> 00:28:24,650 Speaker 2: coupled into the vehicle. These latter day cars will be 396 00:28:24,730 --> 00:28:28,610 Speaker 2: well nigh silent and clean, but above all free from 397 00:28:28,810 --> 00:28:29,970 Speaker 2: human fallibility. 398 00:28:31,130 --> 00:28:35,330 Speaker 1: These are ideas that are only just now approaching feasibility 399 00:28:35,810 --> 00:28:39,450 Speaker 1: in the hands of companies such as Tesla. But Sinclair 400 00:28:39,530 --> 00:28:44,610 Speaker 1: remember is talking. In nineteen eighty four. In his book 401 00:28:45,010 --> 00:28:49,370 Speaker 1: Where Good Ideas Come From, the author Stephen Johnson talks 402 00:28:49,410 --> 00:28:53,290 Speaker 1: about the notion of the adjacent possible. It's a phrase 403 00:28:53,450 --> 00:28:58,330 Speaker 1: coined by a biologist, Stuart Kaufman, to describe how evolution works. 404 00:28:58,930 --> 00:29:02,610 Speaker 1: Nature can't take big leaps. It can get from primordial 405 00:29:02,730 --> 00:29:06,090 Speaker 1: soup to human beings, but not all in one go. 406 00:29:06,650 --> 00:29:12,490 Speaker 1: Evolution can happen only in small, incremental steps. Johnson makes 407 00:29:12,530 --> 00:29:15,250 Speaker 1: the case that this phrase applies just as well to 408 00:29:15,450 --> 00:29:20,130 Speaker 1: human innovations. He gives the metaphor of an ever expanding house. 409 00:29:20,650 --> 00:29:22,810 Speaker 1: You open a door to a new room, and it 410 00:29:22,850 --> 00:29:26,450 Speaker 1: reveals three more doors to rooms you didn't know existed. 411 00:29:27,490 --> 00:29:31,370 Speaker 1: This metaphor for the adjacent possible helps to explain why 412 00:29:31,450 --> 00:29:34,930 Speaker 1: many inventions, like the steam engine or the telegraph have 413 00:29:34,970 --> 00:29:38,770 Speaker 1: occurred to different people independently at around the same time. 414 00:29:39,330 --> 00:29:44,010 Speaker 1: They all spotted the same new door. The adjacent possible 415 00:29:44,210 --> 00:29:47,810 Speaker 1: expands with every new technology or new way of thinking, 416 00:29:48,370 --> 00:29:52,490 Speaker 1: but it also limits us. We can open doors only 417 00:29:52,530 --> 00:29:56,290 Speaker 1: from the rooms we've discovered now and then, says Johnson, 418 00:29:56,650 --> 00:30:00,210 Speaker 1: an idea occurs to someone that teleports us forward a 419 00:30:00,250 --> 00:30:04,410 Speaker 1: few rooms. Those ideas almost always end up failing in 420 00:30:04,450 --> 00:30:11,330 Speaker 1: the short term, precisely because they have skipped ahead. And 421 00:30:11,730 --> 00:30:15,370 Speaker 1: isn't that the perfect description of Sinclair's problem. He could 422 00:30:15,450 --> 00:30:18,370 Speaker 1: see into rooms that were far beyond the current house, 423 00:30:19,130 --> 00:30:21,570 Speaker 1: but then he could only guess at which doors we 424 00:30:21,650 --> 00:30:25,170 Speaker 1: needed to open to find them. The Sea five was 425 00:30:25,290 --> 00:30:29,770 Speaker 1: too far beyond the adjacent possible. New rooms have opened 426 00:30:29,810 --> 00:30:34,290 Speaker 1: up since then. Batteries are smaller, lighter, and more powerful. 427 00:30:34,850 --> 00:30:37,570 Speaker 1: We've started to worry not just about the price of oil, 428 00:30:37,930 --> 00:30:40,850 Speaker 1: but also the cost to the planet of carbon emissions. 429 00:30:41,570 --> 00:30:45,930 Speaker 1: That worry opened doors to electric cars. As for the 430 00:30:45,970 --> 00:30:49,410 Speaker 1: electric bikes and the scooters, they've been helped by more 431 00:30:49,450 --> 00:30:54,450 Speaker 1: cities building cycle paths. In nineteen eighty five, most streets 432 00:30:54,490 --> 00:30:58,010 Speaker 1: were starkly divided, one part for going at thirty miles 433 00:30:58,050 --> 00:31:00,570 Speaker 1: an hour on wheels and another for going at three 434 00:31:00,610 --> 00:31:04,370 Speaker 1: miles an hour on foot, doing twelve miles an hour 435 00:31:04,450 --> 00:31:07,770 Speaker 1: on battery powered wheels you don't really belong in either. 436 00:31:09,130 --> 00:31:13,170 Speaker 1: Ubiquitous smartphones opened up another new room, as did the 437 00:31:13,210 --> 00:31:16,890 Speaker 1: concept of the sharing economy. No wonder then, that many 438 00:31:16,930 --> 00:31:20,370 Speaker 1: companies spotted the door to the scooter and bike sharing 439 00:31:20,450 --> 00:31:24,170 Speaker 1: business model at much the same time. When conditions are right, 440 00:31:24,970 --> 00:31:31,410 Speaker 1: ideas pop up everywhere. Maybe I'm being too kind to 441 00:31:31,450 --> 00:31:35,730 Speaker 1: Clive Sinclair. Maybe his C five was just a ridiculous idea. 442 00:31:36,410 --> 00:31:40,290 Speaker 1: Maybe his eerily accurate vision of the future was just 443 00:31:40,330 --> 00:31:45,690 Speaker 1: a lucky guess. Maybe, but remember what else Sinclair was 444 00:31:45,730 --> 00:31:50,850 Speaker 1: inventing computers. This is what he told an interviewer in 445 00:31:50,890 --> 00:31:54,090 Speaker 1: the mid nineteen eighties, years before the World Wide Web. 446 00:31:54,610 --> 00:31:56,330 Speaker 2: I think the what I'm doing is making a machine 447 00:31:56,330 --> 00:31:58,450 Speaker 2: that will indue urse sit in the home and replace 448 00:31:58,730 --> 00:32:02,890 Speaker 2: or supplement the doctor, the solicitor, the teacher. The machine 449 00:32:02,930 --> 00:32:05,690 Speaker 2: will be there and it will advise people. They can 450 00:32:05,730 --> 00:32:08,890 Speaker 2: ask it questions and it'll give them answers, perhaps even 451 00:32:09,130 --> 00:32:11,930 Speaker 2: tell them what to do. They can say what's on 452 00:32:11,970 --> 00:32:14,650 Speaker 2: television tonight, and they won't have to worry about how 453 00:32:14,690 --> 00:32:17,730 Speaker 2: it will get the information. It'll decide that it'll ring 454 00:32:17,810 --> 00:32:20,050 Speaker 2: up somebody or look it up in its memory banks. 455 00:32:20,130 --> 00:32:22,770 Speaker 2: Or find it out by whatever means. Or they can 456 00:32:22,810 --> 00:32:25,450 Speaker 2: say to it, what's the first strain to London around 457 00:32:25,490 --> 00:32:28,890 Speaker 2: about midday tomorrow, or I've got a pain in my 458 00:32:29,090 --> 00:32:31,690 Speaker 2: right side and really haven't been feeling too well. And 459 00:32:31,810 --> 00:32:34,890 Speaker 2: it'll recognize them. It'll know who they are and when 460 00:32:34,890 --> 00:32:35,690 Speaker 2: they're talking to it. 461 00:32:37,330 --> 00:32:41,170 Speaker 1: Siri and Alexa and Google can do some of this already, 462 00:32:41,570 --> 00:32:45,770 Speaker 1: and the rest is coming. Sir Clive had yet again 463 00:32:46,210 --> 00:32:49,130 Speaker 1: shown us a vision of a far off room, but 464 00:32:49,210 --> 00:32:52,370 Speaker 1: with only a murky sense of what sequence of doors 465 00:32:52,450 --> 00:32:56,170 Speaker 1: might lead us there. Google doesn't ring somebody up. We 466 00:32:56,290 --> 00:33:00,010 Speaker 1: needed to find the door to the World Wide Web first. 467 00:33:00,610 --> 00:33:04,970 Speaker 1: Sinclair's interviewer seems puzzled. What is it that you find 468 00:33:05,090 --> 00:33:07,530 Speaker 1: so terribly exciting about this idea? 469 00:33:08,650 --> 00:33:10,970 Speaker 2: I suppose it's because it'll be the first time that 470 00:33:11,170 --> 00:33:14,330 Speaker 2: humans won't be the only known intelligence in the known universe. 471 00:33:14,690 --> 00:33:16,650 Speaker 2: We don't have to wait for them to arrive from 472 00:33:16,690 --> 00:33:18,730 Speaker 2: outer space. We can build them here. 473 00:33:19,610 --> 00:33:21,130 Speaker 1: Why do you want that to happen? 474 00:33:21,690 --> 00:33:24,610 Speaker 2: I don't particularly I think it's exciting. 475 00:33:24,170 --> 00:33:24,570 Speaker 3: Though. 476 00:33:26,010 --> 00:33:29,890 Speaker 1: In his old age, Sinclair no longer found computers exciting. 477 00:33:30,610 --> 00:33:33,330 Speaker 1: He didn't use one. He didn't even use a calculator. 478 00:33:34,610 --> 00:33:39,330 Speaker 1: After the C five debacle, Sinclair cut a diminished figure. 479 00:33:40,170 --> 00:33:42,970 Speaker 1: He hadn't quite lost all his money, as it feared, 480 00:33:43,010 --> 00:33:47,930 Speaker 1: but he'd lost plenty worse. He'd become a joke. He 481 00:33:48,010 --> 00:33:51,170 Speaker 1: sold off the computer side of his business. His marriage 482 00:33:51,210 --> 00:33:54,810 Speaker 1: broke down. He took up poker, He hung out in nightclubs. 483 00:33:55,050 --> 00:33:58,290 Speaker 1: He married a polled answer thirty four years his junior. 484 00:33:58,890 --> 00:34:02,370 Speaker 1: He made more attempts to invent forms of personal transport, 485 00:34:02,490 --> 00:34:08,170 Speaker 1: but none ever got very far. Sir Clive Sinclair died 486 00:34:08,250 --> 00:34:14,330 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. On Twitter, people posted their remembrances. One 487 00:34:14,330 --> 00:34:17,730 Speaker 1: of them replied to an obituary that pictured Sinclair with 488 00:34:17,810 --> 00:34:23,650 Speaker 1: the z X Spectrum rip. He tweeted to sixty five 489 00:34:23,770 --> 00:34:28,410 Speaker 1: million followers, I loved that computer. The author of that 490 00:34:28,490 --> 00:34:35,210 Speaker 1: tweet Elon Musk. When Clive Sinclair launched the ZX Spectrum, 491 00:34:35,450 --> 00:34:38,370 Speaker 1: Elon Musk was a ten year old boy in South Africa, 492 00:34:39,370 --> 00:34:42,970 Speaker 1: just like Sinclair. As a boy, Musk loved playing around 493 00:34:42,970 --> 00:34:46,770 Speaker 1: with gadgets. Like Sinclair, Musk grew up to make his 494 00:34:46,930 --> 00:34:51,450 Speaker 1: fortune as a technology pioneer with one great idea after another, 495 00:34:52,010 --> 00:34:56,610 Speaker 1: And like Sinclair, Musk made a ballsy gambol on Electric Vehicles. 496 00:34:57,050 --> 00:35:00,890 Speaker 1: Tesla is now one of the world's most valuable companies, 497 00:35:01,410 --> 00:35:06,650 Speaker 1: Elon Musk one of its richest people. Elon Musk and 498 00:35:06,770 --> 00:35:12,490 Speaker 1: Clive Sinclair were both brilliant and visionary. Elon mask had 499 00:35:12,530 --> 00:35:18,770 Speaker 1: the adjacent possible on his side. Poor Clive Sinclair did not, 500 00:35:20,130 --> 00:35:35,410 Speaker 1: and that made all the difference. A great book about 501 00:35:35,450 --> 00:35:39,690 Speaker 1: Clive Sinclair is The Sinclair Story by Rodney Dale. For 502 00:35:39,770 --> 00:35:42,330 Speaker 1: a full list of sources, check out the show notes 503 00:35:42,410 --> 00:35:48,450 Speaker 1: at Timharford dot com. Cautionary Tales is written by me 504 00:35:48,810 --> 00:35:52,810 Speaker 1: Tim Harford with Andrew Wright. It's produced by Ryan Dilley 505 00:35:53,250 --> 00:35:56,890 Speaker 1: with support from Courtney Gerino and Emily Vaughan. The sound 506 00:35:56,970 --> 00:36:00,530 Speaker 1: design and original music is the work of Pascal Wise. 507 00:36:01,050 --> 00:36:05,090 Speaker 1: Julia Barton edited the scripts. It features the voice talents 508 00:36:05,170 --> 00:36:10,170 Speaker 1: of Ben Crowe, Melanie Gutteridge, Stella Harford and Rufer's Right. 509 00:36:11,090 --> 00:36:13,850 Speaker 1: The show also wouldn't have been possible without the work 510 00:36:13,930 --> 00:36:19,690 Speaker 1: of Mea LaBelle, Jacob Weisberg, Heather Faine, John Schnaz, Carli Migliori, 511 00:36:20,170 --> 00:36:26,370 Speaker 1: Eric Sandler, Royston Berserv, Maggie Taylor, Nicolmarano, Daniela Lakhan and 512 00:36:26,490 --> 00:36:31,090 Speaker 1: Maya Kanig. Cautionary Tales is a production of Pushkin Industries. 513 00:36:31,490 --> 00:36:34,210 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please remember to share, rate, 514 00:36:34,410 --> 00:36:36,850 Speaker 1: and review, and if you want to hear the show, 515 00:36:36,970 --> 00:36:41,170 Speaker 1: add free and listen to four exclusive Cautionary Tale shorts. 516 00:36:41,610 --> 00:36:44,370 Speaker 1: Then sign up for Pushkin Plus on the show page 517 00:36:44,490 --> 00:36:59,210 Speaker 1: in Apple Podcasts or at pushkin dot fm slash plus