1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p and L Podcast. I'm pim 2 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 1: Fox along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 5 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg pim L 6 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: Podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. I 7 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:34,480 Speaker 1: want to bring in Katia Porto Kanskim mispronounced her name 8 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,519 Speaker 1: even though we had just been talking about it. Katya Porzkansky, 9 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: excuse me, Bloomberg News reporter who wrote a fantastic story 10 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg It's one of the most well read 11 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: of the day. Um about bro culture on Wall Street 12 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: and how Donald Trump rising to be uh, you know, 13 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: the Reblican candidate is actually empowering the bro culture. Can 14 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: you talk a little bit about what your story was about. Absolutely? 15 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: I Uh. I went into this thinking that I could 16 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: write a story about the amazing uh discussions and dialogues 17 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 1: that are happening across Wall Street trading floors. It never 18 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: happened before with people, you know, come with men coming 19 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: up to their female colleagues and being like, Wow, let's 20 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 1: really talk about this. But no, that's not that's not 21 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: really what's happening. I spoke with about twenty women at 22 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: Hedge funds, private equity firms, Wall Street Banks. Um, and 23 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 1: that's really not what's going on, at least not in 24 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: most of them. Um. I've heard, uh, some really shocking stories, 25 00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:40,120 Speaker 1: some kind of some stories are kind of expected. But 26 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 1: give us to give us a shocking story. Well, one woman, 27 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 1: um uh, basically learned through all this that her her, 28 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: her boss doesn't really think that that uh, what Donald 29 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: Trump was describing in his remarks about on the bus, 30 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: those famous remarks, you know, are are that bad basically 31 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 1: And and she and she's a victim of sexual assault herself. 32 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: And now she's wondering if, um, she will be supported 33 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: by her boss if if something ever were to happen 34 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: to her on a business trip or in in the 35 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 1: office environment. And she's also questioning his judgment, um, you know, 36 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: as her boss is just general judgment, if you know, 37 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 1: if if he's necessarily making good decision. So this sort 38 00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: of speaks to this point that that you know, former 39 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 1: Microsoft's CEO Steve Balmer was making when he said that 40 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 1: c e O s should not speak up in terms 41 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 1: of who they support politically. But my question is, is 42 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: Donald Trump such an other candidate here that when you're 43 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: making comments like this that are so obviously degrading to women, 44 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 1: is it your responsibility as a boss or a leader 45 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: to make a public statement to show some sort of recognition, uh, 46 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: that you know, I don't agree with these statements exactly. 47 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,079 Speaker 1: I think that was what was really interesting from a 48 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 1: lot of the conversations I had that if, um, if 49 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: you believe or your bosses or your colleagues are Trump 50 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:06,239 Speaker 1: supporters and they don't come out and just say, hey, 51 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 1: by the way, I don't really agree with what he 52 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: said about women, then you're on edge. You're kind of 53 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: you're like, well, without having that conversation, you're going to 54 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,079 Speaker 1: be thinking to yourself, is that what my boss or 55 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: my colleagues think about women? And you kind of the 56 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,919 Speaker 1: lack of a conversation is just as bad. Um. So 57 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: that's what's what was really interesting about it, Because it's 58 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 1: one thing when you're surrounded by women in an office 59 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: and everyone kind of is talking about things all the time. 60 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: But if you're that one woman on a trading floor 61 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 1: and you're surrounded by twenty people who are backing, Uh, 62 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: a politician that feels this way about women, you need 63 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: to have a dialogue. Did you get the sense that 64 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: people are actually emboldened to say even more aggressive statements 65 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: with Donald Trump? So there are a few women that 66 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: I spoke with who sit on or by a trading 67 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: floor that said that they that the comments have added 68 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: fuel to the joke pool um and and then yeah, 69 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: and and emboldened them to say things, um that on 70 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: already a misogynistic day to day environment has gotten even worse. 71 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 1: And the other thing that they that several women mentioned 72 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 1: was it's not necessarily about Donald Trump, it's about Hillary Clinton. 73 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 1: To a lot of the comments that are made about 74 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: Hillary and her ability to lead that sounds gendered. Um, 75 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: are putting women Republicans and Democratic Democratic women alike on 76 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: edge that Okay, this is this what they think about 77 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: leaders that are women, and therefore is this what they're 78 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: thinking about me? And that was really powerful that if 79 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,359 Speaker 1: several women mentioned that that there's this constant, you know, 80 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: that double bind of I can't be a leader and 81 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: I can't be a woman and I can't make everybody happy, 82 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: um and and it's bringing up all these thoughts, uh, 83 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: which in this conversation, this inner dialogue, and they can't 84 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 1: really talk about it to anybody because they don't want 85 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: to be ostracized and they don't want to be thought 86 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: of as emotional or overthinking it or speaking to that point. 87 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: I mean, what has the response been, Like, do people 88 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: say that you're overthinking it? Almost everybody that I spoke 89 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: to said I can't talk about this at work and 90 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 1: I can't talk about it on the record, So or 91 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: did they think that I was overthinking? Well, no, that 92 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:19,600 Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's very interesting. But after you wrote 93 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:21,279 Speaker 1: the article, I mean, what if what if the response 94 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 1: has been like I've gotten several emails from women being 95 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 1: like this is spot on several several emails, so it's 96 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 1: it's all been positive, Uh, not all of it. I 97 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 1: have gotten a few emails, um, you know, wondering, um, 98 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: you know, what my motives were, or if this is 99 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 1: an opinion that I have, And I again I have 100 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: to stress this isn't an opinion. I went in thinking 101 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: that this would be a very that you know, all 102 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: of Wallster would have been enlightened or something about the 103 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:50,039 Speaker 1: struggles women face, and and it wasn't that so, um, 104 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 1: so there's an environment out there that I'm you know, 105 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: not necessarily privy to. And I learned a lot from 106 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: speaking with these women. Are you surprised at all that 107 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: we're we're still dealing with this level of sort of 108 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: base uh comments, You know what I mean by that, like, like, 109 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: in other words, that we haven't really been able to 110 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: address as a professional culture yet that that talking about 111 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:20,559 Speaker 1: women in this way is obviously not cool. Well, I 112 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 1: think that the most overt stuff has kind of been 113 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: taken care of. But the problem is that it's not gone. 114 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: There's just this veneer, right, It's still there, but it's 115 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 1: more subtle. It's not over harassment. It's discrimination. That is 116 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 1: the That was the consistent theme. Every single woman I 117 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: talked to said she still faces some sort of discrimination 118 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 1: or sexism at work and whither at work or doing 119 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 1: business in the field, but maybe subtle, not necessarily so. 120 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 1: And that's what's even harder to address. It's not something 121 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: you could just bring the hr and be like this happened. 122 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 1: It's more that the constant things that just chip away 123 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: at you and and leave you behind. Well, and I 124 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 1: should say, I mean Donald Trump is not necessarily representative 125 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 1: of male leaders in corporate America. I remember a story 126 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: a month or two ago about how any CEO who 127 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: had said what Donald Trump had said would have been fired. 128 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: There's a quote in an article from last month, uh 129 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 1: where a CEO of a boutique executive search firm said, 130 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: any CEO who got caught making the kind of comments 131 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: Trump did would be out the door in twenty four hours. 132 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: So this isn't necessarily representative of any excite any of 133 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: me exactly. And that's that was actually one of the 134 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 1: points that when the women I spoke to said, she said, 135 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: if if this guy would have been fired if he 136 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: worked with us here, but he's there running for president, 137 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: what kind of license is that giving the people around 138 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: me to say something? So, even if things aren't happening 139 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: right now, Um, if the effect isn't happening right now, 140 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 1: it's bringing up questions in people's minds as so, what 141 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: will be the lasting impact from this um either for 142 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: women because of the way that Hillary has been scrutinized 143 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: UM in these circles, or or for men to embolden 144 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: them From Bloomberg News, thank you so much, fascinating story, 145 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 1: and regardless of people's opinions. Definitely a topic that's important 146 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 1: just to talk about. Thank you so much for being 147 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: with us, and Lisaid Brama's here with Alex Sherman. This 148 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. Thank you. I want to bring Heidi Shareholds 149 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:37,199 Speaker 1: into the conversation. She is the chief economist for Labor 150 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: Secretary Tom Perez and a longtime labor economist who came 151 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 1: to the Labor Department from the Economic Policy Institute. HII, 152 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Oh, thank 153 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: you for having me. H. So, what was your big 154 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: takeaway from today's jobs numbers? I think the key thing 155 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 1: about today's jobs numbers is that it shows that the 156 00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:01,559 Speaker 1: labor market is continuing to reliably improve. We're seeing monthly 157 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 1: job games that are strong enough, they're solid enough to 158 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 1: start to start start tightening employment conditions. And the good 159 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: thing about that is that it's in that is in 160 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:15,679 Speaker 1: turn boosting wage growth, so that solid job growth is 161 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: really starting to act on boosting wage growth now. So 162 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 1: workers are seeing now sustainable, meaningful wage growth and that's 163 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: very good news for the American worker. We're not there yet, 164 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: we still we still have progress. There's still progress to 165 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: be made, but this is these are nice steps that 166 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: we're taking. And so, Heidi, we we've seen the headline numbers, 167 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 1: a hundred and sixty one tho jobs created last month 168 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: for non farm payrolls, the unemployment rate drop to four 169 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: point nine percent. What is underneath the headline numbers that 170 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:46,439 Speaker 1: we should be paying attention to? Is there one or 171 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 1: two sort of bullet points that stick out to you 172 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: as particularly interesting or important for this month? Yeah. One 173 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: of the UM when I whenever I see a single number, 174 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: I always want to check it against longer run trends 175 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,680 Speaker 1: because you know there can be month to month volatility 176 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: in the numbers. We saw a hundred sixty one jobs 177 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 1: added this month. If you look over the last three months, 178 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: it was a hundred and seventy. So so what we 179 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: saw today is in line with what we've been seeing. Um. 180 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 1: The key thing that that I think is important, what 181 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: that trend has been translating into that's not in those 182 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 1: direct headline numbers is the wage growth. So over the 183 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: last year, we where we saw two point eight percent 184 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,959 Speaker 1: growth on average wages, Inflation over that period is running 185 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: at about one and a half percent. So that difference, 186 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 1: that's what workers are taking home in terms of real 187 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 1: or quote unquote inflation adjusted wage growth. And so that's 188 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,199 Speaker 1: good news. That's the that's the thing that's not in 189 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: the headline. But that is a really salient part of 190 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 1: this report. Well, but there was there were some blemishes 191 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:54,199 Speaker 1: in the report, in particular, uh, the participation rate in 192 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: other words, the share of working age people who are 193 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,679 Speaker 1: employed or um looking for work. It's just there are 194 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: more people still who are working either part time or 195 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: have been out of work for so long that they're 196 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 1: not even counted in these numbers. Uh, And that those 197 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: rates of those people are still higher than it was 198 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:14,400 Speaker 1: before the last recession. I mean, how concerned are you 199 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: about that? It is that is part of this the 200 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: unfinished business of this recovery. In no way do we 201 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 1: think that we are there yet to quote unquote, we 202 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 1: are not, you know, sort of spiking the football. There's 203 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: still work to be done. And labor force participation rate 204 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:32,959 Speaker 1: in particular is one of those areas. One thing about 205 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: the specific movement that we saw this month that ticked down, 206 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: but it's sort of been bouncing around. It's actually been 207 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: pretty flat. And to get a little bit wonky about that, 208 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 1: that's actually weirdly kind of good news because there's demographic 209 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: changes that should be pushing that labor force participation rate down. 210 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: In particular, we're seeing this huge cohorte of baby boomers 211 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 1: hitting retirement age. So the fact that we're holding pretty 212 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 1: steady while swimming upstream in terms of, you know, swimming 213 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: against those demographic trends that would be pushing the labor 214 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: words participation right down, that actually means that we are 215 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 1: seeing people people being brought in who who by the 216 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: strengthening labor market. I uh, do you think that if 217 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 1: the FED does raise rates, which they're widely expected to 218 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: do next month, um and then and then continues on 219 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 1: on a pace that is perhaps two rate hikes next year, 220 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:34,359 Speaker 1: that the labor market will be able to continue making progress. 221 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: You know. I will let other people comment on the result, 222 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 1: the likelihood or results of any FED action, But what 223 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:46,199 Speaker 1: we are seeing is an economy that's really resilient right now. 224 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 1: We're just seeing steady, reliable job growth that has been 225 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: pretty resilient to various headlines that have been thrown in 226 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: its direction. One of the question with respect to wage growth, 227 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 1: are there particular industries that have been driving the overall 228 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 1: wage growth that we saw last month. You know, one 229 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: of the I think one of the um key features 230 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,080 Speaker 1: of the last couple of years in the labor market 231 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 1: is that we have seen strong growth employment growth across 232 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 1: the board, including a middle and high wage jobs. So 233 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: we're really in the in the first part of the recovery, 234 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: we really were seeing disproportionate growth in very low wage jobs. 235 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 1: In the last couple of years, that has shifted dramatically 236 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: and now we're seeing strong growth in middle and high 237 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: wage jobs. And we saw that this month too. What 238 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 1: industries are you talking about, in particular, professional and technical services, 239 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:45,839 Speaker 1: So that's the subsector of professional business services, that's higher 240 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 1: wage jobs like computer systems people that come into a 241 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: business and help with computer systems, accountants, architects, those kinds 242 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,839 Speaker 1: of professional business services. We saw decent jobs growth and 243 00:13:56,920 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 1: construction in October. Those are those are relatively high paying 244 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 1: job jobs. We're seeing strong growth in education and health. 245 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: There's um this sort of tend to be for the 246 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 1: most part, middle wage jobs, and so it's again the 247 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 1: job growth is across the board, but we are we 248 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: are definitely also seeing this growth and middle and high 249 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 1: wage jobs. Heidi shareholds. Thank you so much for being 250 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 1: with us. Hidi Shareholtz, chief economist for Labor Secretary Tom 251 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: Perez on today's jobs report. I'm Lisa Bromoyd's I'm here 252 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 1: with Alex Sherman filling in for pim Fox. This is Bloomberg. 253 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 1: Will this be another Brexit? That's certainly what a lot 254 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: of traders think right now. The US elections coming up, 255 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 1: and you have some UH market makers, some exchanges that 256 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 1: are preparing and requiring more margin, people that post more 257 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: margin in order to gird against potential folatility. Here to 258 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: break it all down with US is Lenan Nuien of 259 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. UH. You wrote a fabulous story about this. 260 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 1: So how are people preparing for potential volatility in UH 261 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: in UH in currency markets right now? So what we've 262 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: heard is that a lot of people are really preparing 263 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 1: for the unexpected. As with Brexit, a lot of people 264 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 1: were caught out, cut out, um, weren't prepared for the 265 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: sort of political uncertainty that that followed. UM. So right now, 266 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: no one on the street is taking anything for granted, 267 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: they are staffing up double staff, overnight pizza, coffee, all 268 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 1: of that, but also in terms of the weeds. You know, 269 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: people are stress testing all their portfolios. They're looking at 270 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 1: where their most vulnerable on the downside in case of 271 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 1: something unexpected happening. So you're talking not only about investors, 272 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: but you're also talking about UH dealers and exchanges. Can 273 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 1: you talk a little bit about what the potential risk 274 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 1: is for them that they're trying to protect against. Well, 275 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: the markets have been very quid and so a month ago, 276 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: obviously we saw the flash crash happen overnight in the Pound, 277 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: and that's gotten people kind of sitting up because foreign 278 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: exchange markets in particular have been very liquid um and 279 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 1: so when something unexpected happens, when a headline comes out, 280 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: markets can have this cascading effect in terms of prices. 281 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: So that's something everyone is looking out for. There's also 282 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: a question of you know, big volumes going through overnight. Um, 283 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: you know, headline comes out suddenly, every everything's moving all 284 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: at once, and you could get al goes tripping and 285 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: causing big moves. We're seeing an interesting disconnect I think 286 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 1: between investors who, as your story points out, seem to 287 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: be you know, let's say panicking might be too strong, 288 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: but certainly preparing themselves for Donald Trump win and see 289 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 1: held I'm sorry. I'm sorry, Alex. I'll let you continue 290 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 1: one second. When you said I don't want to get 291 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: carried away with panicking, there is somebody quoted in your storyline, 292 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 1: and I'm getting night sweats and flashbacks of Brexit. I 293 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: mean that person that folio managed might be panicing. Correct. 294 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 1: And by the way, as an aside to making the 295 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: point I'm going to make, um, I have been bothered 296 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 1: by the Breaksit comparison to this up until very recently 297 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,159 Speaker 1: because the Breaksit polls the day before. So we're like, 298 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: until very recently, you know, the almost every you know, 299 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: let's say, look look at five thirty eight, which has 300 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 1: been sort of the dominant website on this. You know, 301 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 1: the polling has been nothing close to that. Now recently 302 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 1: the polls have started to tighten a little bit. And 303 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 1: then maybe the Brexit comparison is a fair one. But 304 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 1: my original point is that CEOs seemed to be nonplussed 305 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 1: by the election. All you need to do is look 306 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:36,560 Speaker 1: at what M and A volume has been over the 307 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:39,120 Speaker 1: past month or so. The M and A in October 308 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 1: has been was the highest M and A volume of 309 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 1: all time ever. Uh, just weeks before the election. Well, 310 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 1: that could be potentially because they wanted to take advantage 311 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 1: of the low borrowing costs. To right, I mean, that's 312 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 1: sorry as absolutely and that that may be a thing. 313 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:55,879 Speaker 1: But if but if the election was that big of 314 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 1: an issue for them, if there was that much fear 315 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:02,959 Speaker 1: associated with it, that likely again no pun intended Trump uh, 316 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: concerns about or or or you know, concerns about interest 317 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 1: rates rising. I spoke to several people about this, several people, advisors, lawyers, 318 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,959 Speaker 1: who were in the boardroom, and they told me, honestly, 319 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,240 Speaker 1: the election doesn't even come up in CEO conversations really, 320 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 1: so they're not concerned, maybe because they don't want to 321 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: get um into into trouble. But Lennon, I wanted to 322 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: ask you about which currencies in particular are most at risk. 323 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 1: I mean, the Mexican pay so seems like a pretty 324 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,879 Speaker 1: ripe candidate, as well as the US dollar. What are 325 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:31,639 Speaker 1: people telling you, Um, it's going to be the U 326 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 1: S dollar for sure. Obviously on the other side of 327 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 1: that dollar trade, you have the yen, which is a 328 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:40,119 Speaker 1: safe haven currency. So obviously if something unexpected happens, the 329 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: yen could get a bid Mexican payso has been super 330 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 1: sensitive throughout this entire presidential election um process, and the 331 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 1: retail brokers have raised their margins on the pay so 332 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: because they want people to satisfide more more money in 333 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,680 Speaker 1: case some something crazy happens. Well, yeah it hasn't. Hasn't 334 00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 1: Mexico been raising interest rates just in order to support 335 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: the paso because of the bets uh that that Trump 336 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 1: could could become president and therefore wards and the value 337 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: of the paso down. So this is something interesting. You know, 338 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 1: we hear people in the markets talking about potentially intervention 339 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 1: by the Mexican authorities and in the currency. Um. You know, 340 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,880 Speaker 1: obviously this is not this is pure speculation, but people 341 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 1: are starting to have those conversations in the street about 342 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,240 Speaker 1: what's going to happen in the Mexican pay so so 343 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 1: um come election nights. So yeah, there's a lot going on. 344 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,359 Speaker 1: So all nighters, all nighters. People are going to be 345 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:35,280 Speaker 1: staffed up over in Asia too. I would imagine Asia, London, 346 00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:37,239 Speaker 1: the US. I think this is a kind of all 347 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 1: hands on deck situation. I think everybody's gonna be staying 348 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: up all night anyway to watch the results come out. 349 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 1: Um Lenan and thank you so much for joining us. Lannion, 350 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 1: who covers uh, the FX markets very very well for 351 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: us here at Bloomberg News, thank you to talk a 352 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: little bit about how the v alativity in the foreign 353 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: exchange markets is already getting some people having night sweats 354 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 1: and flashbacks of Brexit. This is Bloomberg. Well, now we're 355 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,960 Speaker 1: gonna turn our sights to the retailers of the world 356 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 1: and what they're expecting for uh, this holiday season. Now 357 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 1: that I guess that Halloween is over, we can start 358 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 1: talking about Christmas. I've already seen the the Christmas candy 359 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:29,439 Speaker 1: and the stores. Craig Johnson, President of Customer Growth Partners, Uh, 360 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: do you think that this is going to be as 361 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 1: bad holiday season as some retailers seem to be suggesting. Well, 362 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: we're pretty often contrarian, and uh, we think it's actually 363 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 1: gonna be a little bit better. The the consensus is 364 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 1: it's going to be up about three and a half 365 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,239 Speaker 1: percent year of year total sales um and we think 366 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 1: it's going to be up four point one percent. We've 367 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: been doing this for sixteen years, forecasting and and um, 368 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 1: we think things are coming together in time for what's 369 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:00,920 Speaker 1: going to be a little bit better. It's not gonna 370 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:02,880 Speaker 1: be a blowout Christmas, gonna be a little bit better 371 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:06,680 Speaker 1: than people anticipate. Well, what types of stuff in particular. Well, 372 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 1: the one thing that's new this year, um is that 373 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 1: the health and beauty sectors has been very strong. And 374 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: that's not just cbslau Greens, but it's things like Alta 375 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 1: beauty salons, uh g n c Viaman world Dot, whole 376 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: Health area, the whole beauty area which is grouped together 377 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,159 Speaker 1: with the with the major drug stores, is going to 378 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,120 Speaker 1: be a big driver. That's gonna be at seven point 379 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 1: four percent, So that's going to be the strongest merchandise sector. 380 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: Online e commerce will still be the overall fastest growing 381 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,679 Speaker 1: sectors that will grow about thirteen point nine percent year 382 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 1: of the year UM. And as as sort of as 383 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 1: a macro sector will certainly go. Pro and Fitbit are 384 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,160 Speaker 1: gonna need good holiday seasons after reporting their earnings this week, 385 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: both of them disappointing. Do we expect consumer electronics to 386 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,560 Speaker 1: be big? Is there some sort of hot gadget this 387 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:04,520 Speaker 1: year may drive some holiday sales? The wearable technologies that 388 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: they will get some amount of sale, but they're they've 389 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 1: been on the market for a little while. That's not 390 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 1: net new. The one thing that is new and and 391 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 1: with with not just the Oculus, but but also the 392 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: Sony the the VR, the virtual reality um uh technology 393 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 1: has been coming on very strong and uh of course 394 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 1: that operates in conjunction with video games and video games themselves, 395 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 1: the consoles with Stubbin at least three years since any 396 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: new generation of consoles, but now with the VR technology 397 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,160 Speaker 1: that is driving a lot of interest and um it's 398 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 1: a great gift of bo item and it can really 399 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: dramatically enlarge your experience, you know, whether you're in an 400 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: Xbox environment or Sony PS four environment. Your kids old enough, 401 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,159 Speaker 1: they are older and beyond that. But no, but but 402 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 1: my my son, we'll, we'll, we'll do it because you 403 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 1: know a lot of kids, you know in in there, 404 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: in there, not kids, people in their twenties. Uh, well, we'll, 405 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: we'll do it. So but that that is the nature 406 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 1: of the VR technology appeals both to the classic teen gamers, 407 00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: but also there's a lot of x teen gamers that 408 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 1: are now entered well under the twenties and thirties that 409 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: loved the thing. Yeah, my seven year old actually literally 410 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: yesterday said to me that some of his friends have 411 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: iPhones and that he should have an iPhone, and that 412 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: one of his friends has two iPads. And I said, well, 413 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 1: that's very nice for him, but too bad, so give 414 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: him exactly. I don't think that that's gonna necessarily justify 415 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: my giving him one. You know, hey, Craig, I was 416 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 1: going to talk a little bit about the clothing shops 417 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 1: that have struggled so much. You know what we're talking 418 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 1: about Jay Crew or uh, you know some of the 419 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:51,560 Speaker 1: teen teen brands or Victoria's Secret. Um, what about those? Well, 420 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 1: apparel is uh, it's gonna have it, Okase, He's not 421 00:23:56,440 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 1: at all great on a unit demand, meaning you volume 422 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,480 Speaker 1: sales will We have about four or five which is 423 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 1: which is nice strong growth. The problem is is is 424 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 1: apparel just like food and consider electronics, there's a lot 425 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,840 Speaker 1: of price deflation in that. So that price deflaced of 426 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 1: about three percent and change is going to pull that 427 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 1: unit volume down to only about one and a half 428 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 1: percent UH total sales growth and UH and and some 429 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 1: sectors of apparel are just getting crushed right now because 430 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 1: of the warm weather, particularly outwear sales, and so we 431 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 1: see a lot of outerwear. Uh, you know, the heavier 432 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 1: jackets and Parkers and so were on sale at fifty off. 433 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 1: So that's a that's a people that are in that 434 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: side of the business are getting crushed. Do you believe 435 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 1: the excuse that some some out there have been saying 436 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:52,399 Speaker 1: that the elections have dampened purchases. I'm not sure I 437 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: really buy that. It's you know, there's retailers are notorious 438 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:01,199 Speaker 1: for using any kind of excuse allows you sail. Oh, 439 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,919 Speaker 1: it's the weather is too hot, it's too cold. There's 440 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 1: two medium, there's the elections. Um and Uh whether in 441 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 1: now elections are the last refuge of retail scoundrels that 442 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 1: are underperforming? Um Uh. Nonetheless, you know, any kind of 443 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: major purchases, some people might be holding off on that 444 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: a little bit. We've seen auto sales drop back a 445 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 1: little bit, but we've also seen at the same time 446 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: a big picture TV you know, the large TV sales, 447 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 1: I mean the big guys seventy inches, those have been 448 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,840 Speaker 1: very very strong. Um and and if there's any kind 449 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 1: of election impact is certainly not affecting that sector. But 450 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,479 Speaker 1: from a sales point of view, a dour point of view. Uh. 451 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: The again, there's such price deflation and that when things 452 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 1: are down fifty a year on a not a kind 453 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 1: of amount a purrdge basis that that that that the 454 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 1: number the dollar numbers will not be as great as 455 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: again as the unit volume growth. With the monthly job 456 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 1: supports coming out today, we did get some interesting data 457 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,480 Speaker 1: on the amount of hours Americans are working. I believe 458 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 1: this past month it was about thirty four point four 459 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 1: hours in a week. Uh you note, um as you 460 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,359 Speaker 1: sort of talk about retail sales that part of what's 461 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 1: actually dampening growth for holiday spending is that Americans are 462 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: not working consistently forty hour a week jobs. If they were, Uh, 463 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,119 Speaker 1: just how much better would would holiday spending on retail 464 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 1: growth be? Huge? Because right now the barely forty of 465 00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,479 Speaker 1: working age adults have a full time job. And if 466 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: if people have the same you know versus you know 467 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: ten or twelve years ago, that basically represents in terms 468 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 1: of a full time job equivalent about fourteen fifteen million 469 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,680 Speaker 1: missing or fandom full time jobs on an hours basis 470 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 1: right now. If you if you went back to the 471 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,160 Speaker 1: to uh, fifteen years ago, ten or fifteen years ago, 472 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: Americans working age adults on average worked about twenty six 473 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,720 Speaker 1: hours a week, everybody all in, not just the people 474 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:05,880 Speaker 1: in labor at all. Now only the average adult only 475 00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,919 Speaker 1: works only twenty two hours a week, So you can 476 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:10,680 Speaker 1: do the math. But what that's gonna do to your 477 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 1: your incomes and that effects retail sales and everything else. 478 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 1: So uh so we need we need to ramp up, 479 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 1: you know, the full time growth, full time job growth, 480 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,399 Speaker 1: and not just be looking. Oh, unemployment is forged my 481 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: nine percent, which is kind of a phony artifact statistic. 482 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,200 Speaker 1: So we've got to get the hours up and incomes 483 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:30,920 Speaker 1: and that's what at the end of the day, it's 484 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:35,879 Speaker 1: rise in overall disposable personal income that drives all consumers spending, 485 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: and retail is the single biggest part of course of 486 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,199 Speaker 1: consumer spending. Greig Johnson, thank you so much for joining us. 487 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,720 Speaker 1: Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, which is based 488 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:49,880 Speaker 1: in New Canaan, Connecticut, talking about holiday sales at retailers 489 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,159 Speaker 1: and how his contrarian view is that they're going to 490 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 1: do better. Alex and a lot of people have been saying, 491 00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,680 Speaker 1: I'm Lisa Brown, what's here with Alex Srman fiss Is Bloomber. 492 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg pien L podcast. You 493 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or 494 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Pim Fox. I'm out 495 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 1: there on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there on 496 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You 497 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,880 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio