1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, and welcome to another episode of financial heresy. 2 00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 1: Today we are talking about the cause of inflation and 3 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: why there was or was not inflation during the years 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: of eighteen seventy through nineteen hundred compared to today. UH. 5 00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: This conversation is sparked by a recent tweet that I 6 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 1: saw from George Gammon. UM, if you're not familiar with 7 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: George Gammon, I would go give him a follow on Twitter, 8 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 1: on YouTube, his podcast. He has a bunch of really 9 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: great content that he puts out about UH, financial information, economics, macro, 10 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 1: UH investing, and a lot of great guests as well, 11 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: So I would give him a follow. Recently, he tweeted 12 00:00:54,440 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: out the money supply increase two different charts. One of 13 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 1: them was for today from the period of nineteen eight 14 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: seven through twenty nineteen, which, um, you know, given those 15 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: years nineteen eight seven through twenty nineteen, that ends prior 16 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: to COVID nineteen eight seven, that's well after leaving the 17 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 1: gold standard UM right before the nineties, and so that's 18 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: a pretty good period of time there for generally normal 19 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: monetary policy by today's standards. When we kind of saw 20 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: the invention of the FED put under Greenspan UM and 21 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: the housing crisis, Bernankey's bail out everything until you know 22 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, fairly normal monetary policy by today's standards. Again, 23 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: we also see a chart for the money supply increase 24 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: from the years in eighteen sixty seven th eighteen ninety 25 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: nine UM. So for those not familiar, eighteen sixty seven 26 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: this is following the end of the Civil War UH. 27 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: And then eighteen ninety nine this is a few years 28 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: before or the establishment of the Federal Reserve, so the 29 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: Feds started in nine. The Federal income texted as well, 30 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 1: and so that time period is significant because people like myself, 31 00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: many UH Austrian economists will typically look at that time 32 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 1: and show how there was deflation. This is something I've 33 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: talked about on my YouTube channel on this podcast many times. 34 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: During that time period, there was deflation. Prices on average 35 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: went down over time UM and UH. Not only did 36 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 1: prices go down, but there was a real increase in 37 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:42,519 Speaker 1: wealth UM and so during that time people increase their 38 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: real incomes. So prices went down and incomes went down 39 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 1: when you just look at the dollar amount, but prices 40 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,359 Speaker 1: went down more than incomes went down. And so if 41 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:53,800 Speaker 1: you think about it from kind of today's point of view. 42 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: Let's say you make a hundred grand a year, and 43 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:59,359 Speaker 1: this year it costs you a hundred grand to live. Um, 44 00:02:59,480 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 1: you're not going to have anything left over. Now, let's 45 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 1: say prices of everything just on average goes down a 46 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: little bit next year, So you still make a hundred grand, 47 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:13,519 Speaker 1: but it only costs you ninety five grand to live. Well, 48 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: now you are able to put away five grand or 49 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 1: spend it on additional consumption, or invest it. You have 50 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: five grand left over that you don't have to spend. 51 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: So let's just say you say that you put it 52 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: in the bank. Year after that it only costs you 53 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 1: ninety grand to live. Uh, let's say you get a 54 00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: pay cut this year though to grand because your employee 55 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,360 Speaker 1: response to prices going down. Well, you're still five grand ahead. 56 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: But not only are you five grand ahead, you already 57 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: have five grand in the bank account. Now, by year 58 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: one standards, five grand would be five percent of your 59 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: annual income. But now now that we're on year three, 60 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: five grand is more than five per cent of your 61 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 1: of your annual income. And so as deflation happens, as 62 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: prices drop, um, you get an increase in real income, 63 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: but you also get an increase in purchasing power from 64 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 1: your savings, and so uh natural, constant and persistent deflation 65 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 1: means that people who are wage earners are able to 66 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: get ahead much easier than an inflationary system where you 67 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 1: have to get increases in income just to be able 68 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: to uh, you know, maintain be at the same level. 69 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 1: And so many people point to this period of time 70 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: and show how it was kind of like a golden 71 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: age of monetary policy where we had natural deflation because 72 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 1: of technological progress increases in wealth UM and even despite 73 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: the deflation, people increase their income and their wealth during 74 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: the during that time substantially. UM. Now, what is interesting 75 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: about this that I hadn't seen until this tweet was 76 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: comparing the money supply growth. Now, I want to be 77 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: clear that I do not understand I wasn't able to 78 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: find um the calculation of the money supply during that time. 79 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: I understand that it's uh there, you can you can 80 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: go back and you can find find the data and 81 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: you can find the charts of this UM. So I 82 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: want to I want to make it clear just as 83 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: a disclosure, that I do not know if the money 84 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:28,600 Speaker 1: supply today UM was calculated the same as the money 85 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: supply was back then. Number one, number two. I do 86 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 1: not know if the money supply calculation that's used today 87 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: UM is back dated against the old data to show 88 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: kind of a constant apples to apples, like, for instance, 89 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: inflation today is calculated differently than it was in the 90 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: seventies and the eighties. If we used the eighties calculation 91 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 1: for inflation today, like the nineteen nine calculation, UM, our 92 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: inflation would have gone up way past the peak nineteen 93 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: seventy nine. And so I think our inflation would have 94 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:07,679 Speaker 1: been upwards of nineteen percent or something like that UM 95 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 1: a couple of months ago. And so it's it's uh, 96 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: I do need to make that disclosure. However, UM, Let's 97 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 1: just assume that there is a somewhat consistent way of 98 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: measuring the money supply in the late eighteen hundreds compared 99 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 1: to today, if they are similar at all, If this 100 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: is accurate at all, UH, then it raises a big 101 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 1: question why. Well, because when you look at the increase 102 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: in the money supply during seven through nineteen, so the 103 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: last the last few a few years are deleted from this. 104 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: With our abnormal monetary policy post COVID are deleted from this. 105 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 1: But from seven until twenty nineteen, the money supply increased 106 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 1: four hundred percent. Okay, so the money supply increased four 107 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 1: hundred percent during the years nineteen seven through nineteen. Well, 108 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: when we look at the money supply from the years 109 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: eighteen sixty seven through eighteen, the increase in the money 110 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: supply was four hundred percent. So when you compare the 111 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: growth in the amount of money during those time periods, 112 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: it was exactly the same. Now, again, I need to 113 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: I need to specify that it's very possible that the 114 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 1: way this number is calculated is different. It's very possible 115 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: that there is a lack of consistency in the way 116 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: that they arrived at these numbers. With that being said, 117 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:59,320 Speaker 1: even if they are somewhat consistent, this is a big 118 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: question because that means that the money supply growth during 119 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: these decades is somewhat similar. So then the question is 120 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: why was their deflation during that time and why was 121 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: there inflation during the recent time. Because people like myself, 122 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: especially I'm guilty of this, I like to simplify things, 123 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: kind of get it down to its basic building blocks 124 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: and understand it at the most stripped down, basic, simplified layer. 125 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: If I can do that, then I can start to 126 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 1: build things on top of it. If I want to 127 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: understand how a building is built, I've got to start 128 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,679 Speaker 1: with the foundation, and then I can go with the framing, 129 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 1: and then I can go with the roof, and then 130 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: I can go up the walls, and then once everything 131 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: is built, then you can start to decorate it. But 132 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 1: you don't start picking out the art you're gonna hang 133 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: on your walls before you lay your foundation. So I 134 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 1: like to go straight down to the most base layer 135 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: and understand that first. And at the most basic layer, 136 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: the fact is is that a money supply increase causes inflation, 137 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 1: and the money supply decrease causes deflation. Now that's the 138 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: most basic layer. So what am I leaving out when 139 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: I say that? And I say that a lot. The 140 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 1: number one thing I'm leaving out is a Latin phrase 141 00:09:24,760 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: called centrist parables. It means all else being equal. Now 142 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,560 Speaker 1: I have explained this multiple many times, but I don't 143 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: explain it every time. Um, it's important to recognize that 144 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: with anything in economics, that is a built in assumption 145 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: to what is being said. Cterrist parables. So all else 146 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:51,880 Speaker 1: being equal, When the money supply increases, prices will increase. 147 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: When the money supply decreases, prices will decrease. So let's 148 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: walk through the mechanics of that, see how that works. 149 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 1: Let's say we have an evenly rotating closed simple economy, 150 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: um like a monopoly game. This is a great example 151 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: of this. What would happen if you take a monopoly 152 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 1: game and you double everybody's money, Well, very quickly people 153 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:21,079 Speaker 1: would buy houses, they'd buy hotels. They when a property 154 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: would be auctioned, they bid up the price of it. 155 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: Because I've got twice the amount of money to spend. 156 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 1: Now I can afford to go around the board and 157 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: buy everything. I can afford to build houses and hotels, 158 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: I can afford to do things. As that happens, the 159 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 1: price of going around the board, the cost of rent 160 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: every time I land on a property, is now much 161 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 1: higher than it was before. And so as the new 162 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: money that's been injected into the system works its way 163 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 1: throughout the system, it bids up the prices of goods 164 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: and services. Because you didn't create more properties. In the 165 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 1: game of monopoly, when you increase the money, all you're 166 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 1: doing is changing the way the properties were measured. Because before, 167 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,439 Speaker 1: if a property was five bucks, well there's twice the 168 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: amount of money now. So there's a good chance that 169 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 1: that same property will eventually be going for a thousand 170 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: bucks because there's enough money to support those higher prices, 171 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: and the people who want them have the money to 172 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 1: increase their demand for it until those higher prices, that 173 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: higher equilibrium is reached. And that's exactly what happens in 174 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: an economies. When the money supplies increased, the new money 175 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: runs around and chases the same amount of goods and 176 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 1: services and pushes those prices up. Um. Now, if you're 177 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:41,439 Speaker 1: paying attention there, I made a couple of implicit I 178 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 1: implied Cetera's parabus, same amount of goods and services. And 179 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 1: so when we see something like happen where they print 180 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: a few trillion dollars, that's a very short amount of time. 181 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: So the increase in goods and services during that time 182 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,040 Speaker 1: is very low. In fact, when you force everybody to 183 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 1: stay home and not go to work, and you lock 184 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: down production, give people the incentive or the ability to 185 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 1: quit their jobs, well suddenly then you might have an 186 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: you might even have a drop in product, productivity in 187 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:16,960 Speaker 1: goods and services. Um. And so when we see something 188 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 1: like happened, uh all else, when we say, like, you know, 189 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: all else being equal, you have to ask a question, 190 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 1: is all else equal? And normally it's not. So let's 191 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 1: just assume that when they printed all that money and 192 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: then they handed out to people lowered interest rates, everybody 193 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:35,920 Speaker 1: rEFInd there's a huge increase in the money supply. The 194 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 1: M two went up a few trillion. Uh M two 195 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,559 Speaker 1: is sure. It means it's the money supply. It's the 196 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:44,040 Speaker 1: way that it's measured. There's multiple measures that the money supply. 197 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 1: There's M zero, M one, M two, M three. The 198 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 1: most common one is them too. So when when all 199 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 1: that money was printed, uh, And let's just you know, 200 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: for simplicity sake, let's say it happened in instantly, over 201 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: the course of no time at all. There was no 202 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: time for the production or the quantity of goods and 203 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 1: services to change either up or down. Well, then yes, 204 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 1: you can say, okay, in that uh, in that simplified scenario, 205 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:12,560 Speaker 1: all else is equal. So the increased money supply should 206 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 1: push prices up. And that's exactly what we saw. For 207 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 1: for you know, purposes of what we're talking about here, 208 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: there was a massive increase in the quantity of money 209 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:26,439 Speaker 1: relative to the wealth it was chasing now during the 210 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 1: years of through umteen. During those years, obviously we're cutting 211 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 1: off those dates in en so before there was a 212 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 1: much smaller relative increase in the quantity of money because 213 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 1: there was also an increase in real wealth. There are 214 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: real productivity gains, there was a real increase in productive output. 215 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:59,559 Speaker 1: There's globalization happening. There were cheaper ways of producing goods invented, 216 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 1: their efficiencies created in the creation of the thing of 217 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: the things that people consume. And so while the money 218 00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 1: supply did increase FO over that time, there was also 219 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: an increase in the real wealth during that time. And 220 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: so when we say that money supply increases cause inflation. 221 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: When I say that, what I'm talking about is relative 222 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 1: to everything else. Because if we could engineer with a 223 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:35,920 Speaker 1: magic button what the FED has been trying to do, 224 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: or what they've stated they've been trying to do for 225 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: a long time, which is increase the money supply in 226 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: UH in relative to uh the amount of goods and services, 227 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 1: meaning having the money supply go up at the same 228 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: pace as the increase in wealth. UM. That is how 229 00:14:55,240 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: you would achieve stable prices. Because the amount of wealth 230 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 1: in an economy grows at the same pace as the 231 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: amount of wealth, then the number of dollars needed to 232 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 1: purchase a portion of that wealth would always be the same. 233 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: Think of it this way. Let's say you're building a 234 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: house and you're measuring how big the house is. And 235 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: when you start building a house, it's ten ft high, 236 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: and you want the house to be bigger, and so 237 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 1: you create another uh. You shove more feet and more 238 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: inches into your tape measure for the same size house. Well, 239 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: that's an example of inflation. You created more units of 240 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 1: measurement needed to measure the same amount of real stuff 241 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 1: of real length that the height of the house. So 242 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: the height of the house didn't change, but the number 243 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 1: used to measure it will go up. UM. Now let's 244 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: say the opposite UM. Well, the other thing that needs 245 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: to be said about that is that the size of 246 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: those feet would be smaller. They would be worth less 247 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 1: to put it into those terms. Now, let's say you 248 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 1: UH increase the size of the house UM to twenty ft, 249 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: You double the side of the house, You put another 250 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: story on UM. But you don't change. You don't uh 251 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 1: increase the number of feet on your on your tape measure. 252 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: So you just stretch it out. It's made out of rubber. 253 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,840 Speaker 1: You just stretch it out. Now every foot is the 254 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: same size as two feet used to be. So your 255 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: house still says when you measure it, it it still says 256 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: it's ten ft tall. But every foot just got bigger 257 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: now instead of staying the same or smaller. And so 258 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 1: uh you have an increase in uh in wealth per 259 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: foot or in size per foot. So that would be 260 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: an example of the number of units not changing. They're 261 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: just they're just bigger now. They're they're able to be 262 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: used for a larger amount of space. Um. Now, let's say, 263 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,639 Speaker 1: and so that would be an example of deflation. Uh, 264 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: your money goes farther your feet, your inches go farther. 265 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:17,200 Speaker 1: There they are used to measure more space, used to 266 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: measure more wealth. Now let's say, um, when you increase 267 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: the size of your house, you I increase the actual 268 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: tape measure. Use a tape measure the way that kind 269 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 1: of people use it, like you know, in reality, you 270 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: pull more of it out and you have the same 271 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 1: size um uh, feet and inches but now you have 272 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 1: more of them, so you've got more house. You've got 273 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:47,439 Speaker 1: more feet. Uh there's it's twenty ft tall now, and 274 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: but you've got more house. So it's the the units 275 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: of measurement still are made up of the same amount 276 00:17:56,480 --> 00:18:00,840 Speaker 1: of house as they were before. Um So when you 277 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 1: have an economy that grows at let's say, with the 278 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 1: magic button, at the same pace as the money supply grows, 279 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 1: you are going to have the money be worth the 280 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 1: same you double the output of pizzas you double the money, 281 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,120 Speaker 1: the same amount of money will buy you the same 282 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: amount of pizzas as before. You're not going to have 283 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: a change in price because there was no relative change 284 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: between the money and the goods and services. One other analogy, 285 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: just to kind of really drive this home, is the 286 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,719 Speaker 1: pizza analogy that I really like to use. If you 287 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 1: have a pizza with eight slices, and you've got four 288 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 1: people eating that pizza, each person will get two slices. Um, 289 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 1: let's say you get somebody else, Uh, you know, four 290 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,640 Speaker 1: more people walk in the door, and you're thinking, shoot, well, 291 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 1: now everybody's gonna be hungry because they're only gonna get 292 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: one slice. And you have a brilliant idea to just 293 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 1: take that same pizza and cut each slice into two slices. Well, 294 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 1: now your pizza is sixteen slices to feed eight people, 295 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 1: and you think perfect. Now everybody can have two slices. 296 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 1: Everybody will be full. But each slice is half the 297 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 1: size that it was before. So that does you no good. 298 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: You didn't change the amount of wealth the amount of pizza. 299 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 1: You just change how it was measured. You need two 300 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 1: slices now to get the same amount of pizzas before, 301 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 1: and so uh. An example of that's an example of inflation. 302 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 1: An example of deflation would be, Um, if you you've 303 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: got four people eating this eating this pizza, there's eight slices. 304 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:36,199 Speaker 1: An example of deflation would be taking the slices and 305 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 1: uh smushing them, smushing two of them together, uh to 306 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: form um, you know, four larger pieces of the pizza. Um, Well, 307 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 1: now each slice is double the size as it was before. 308 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: So now nobody needs two slices to be full. Everybody 309 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: just needs one slice to get the same amount of 310 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: p pizza that used to be two slices. That's an 311 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 1: example of deflation. Um. Now let's say you have another 312 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,399 Speaker 1: pizza get delivered and so if you have another pizza 313 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 1: get delivered, the amount of pizza actually increases here and 314 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: it's got eight slices just like the other one. UM. 315 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: And so the slice size didn't change. So each person 316 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 1: still needs the same number of slices to get full, 317 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: but there's more pizza. There's actually more wealth here. And 318 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 1: so when we have an increase in money supply um, 319 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 1: and we say that it caught that causes inflation, that 320 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 1: money printing causes inflation. UM. We have to understand that 321 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: that statement is true so long as the statement all 322 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 1: else being equal is true and all else is rarely equal. 323 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 1: That's why when we go back to eighteen sixty seven 324 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: through eight nine, with the same increase in the money, 325 00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: so apply, there was a much uh much different effect 326 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 1: on the value of the money. There was deflation during 327 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: that time. So the question is why was their deflation 328 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 1: during that time instead of inflation with the same amount 329 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 1: of money. And the only answer is you have to 330 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 1: look at how much wealth was created during that time. 331 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 1: There was a much greater amount of wealth created during 332 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 1: that time. UM. This is something many people will point 333 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: to g d P. I don't like the measurement. G 334 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 1: d P but it's one of the most common and 335 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 1: so you know, you got to take what you take 336 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 1: what you get most of the time. And so uh 337 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,400 Speaker 1: many people will point out that you have to look 338 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 1: at the money supply relative to g d P, because 339 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 1: if the GDP doubles and the money supply doubles, your 340 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 1: prices are going to probably we stay just about the same. 341 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 1: If your GDP doubles and your money supply stays the same, 342 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 1: your prices are gonna plummet. If you're GDP stays the 343 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 1: same and your money supply doubles, your prices are gonna double. 344 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: And so during the years eighteen sixty seven, GDP increased 345 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: faster than the money supply, or at least the wealth 346 00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,880 Speaker 1: did the g d P. The official GDP number might 347 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 1: have not increased to that same extent, but the amount 348 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:38,640 Speaker 1: of wealth that was available grew faster. That's the only explanation, 349 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 1: because the money was chasing way more goods and services, 350 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,679 Speaker 1: so the value of the money went up relative to 351 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 1: the goods and the services. So now we have to 352 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: uh go to the last step here and ask why 353 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: in the world would the g d P, Why would 354 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 1: the amount out of wealth in the system have increased 355 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 1: so much more during those years than during recent years 356 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,680 Speaker 1: when we've had the Internet, we've had computers, we've had 357 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: UH programming, we've had all these increases in productive output 358 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,360 Speaker 1: we have with technology and the way that we can 359 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 1: the way that we can accomplish things. Now, how in 360 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 1: the world could UH the total wealth have increased so 361 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:33,199 Speaker 1: much more during those years. And one of, if not 362 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:37,760 Speaker 1: the biggest reasons, in my opinion, is the size of 363 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 1: the government. When you look at the amount of UH 364 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 1: productive output that is UH siphoned away from the economy 365 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 1: today to go to fund government spending is significantly larger 366 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 1: today than it used to be. Not only that, but 367 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 1: when you look at what that uh, what the government 368 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:11,199 Speaker 1: spends its money on, it is not increasing productivity. It 369 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:15,439 Speaker 1: is things like military spending UM, which is a lot 370 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 1: of people would make the argument saying that that UM 371 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 1: is kind of like a necessary cost, kind of like 372 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 1: you know, for people, it's like life insurance is a cost, 373 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: but ultimately it's a it's a good cost. You'd you'd 374 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 1: rather have it than not, even though you're giving up 375 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 1: you know, your fifty bucks, hundred bucks, two hundred bucks 376 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:33,239 Speaker 1: a month, whatever it is that you spend on your 377 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,679 Speaker 1: life insurance or health insurance or you know, other forms. 378 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,440 Speaker 1: So they look at military and call like a social 379 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,239 Speaker 1: insurance and making sure that your country is safe. And 380 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,440 Speaker 1: that's fine, But take a look at how much the 381 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:49,280 Speaker 1: US government spends on the military, where that money is going, 382 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: what the U. S Military is doing with that, and 383 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,560 Speaker 1: the destructive effects. Just I mean, we're just talking about 384 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 1: wealth here. I'm not even talking about the moral arguments 385 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 1: here of war UM or military spending or what the 386 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 1: United States government has done imperially, uh speaking um over 387 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,440 Speaker 1: the last few decades. Uh, let's just we're just talking 388 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 1: about financially the size um it is. It is enormous. 389 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,400 Speaker 1: Let's also look at the other places that the money 390 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:22,199 Speaker 1: goes to to fund and subsidize healthcare costs, you know, 391 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,679 Speaker 1: greatest in the world with the lowest results in the world, 392 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 1: relatively speaking, when we look at UH, the social safety 393 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,679 Speaker 1: net costs, when we look at politicians, when we look 394 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 1: at full time government employees, UM, when we look at UH, 395 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 1: the amount of grants that the government hands out, when 396 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: we look at them, the black holes that the government 397 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 1: sends money to. When we look at the national debt 398 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 1: and all the money being paid on interest on the 399 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:54,400 Speaker 1: national debt um. One proxy for this is to look 400 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:58,639 Speaker 1: at your paycheck. How much of your paycheck goes to 401 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 1: the government a year. For most people it's close to half. 402 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 1: That means from January through June, you are working just 403 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:15,119 Speaker 1: to pay the government, and then from July through December, 404 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 1: the rest of of what you learned for that year 405 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,919 Speaker 1: is what you get to keep in spend. So for 406 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:27,360 Speaker 1: half of your year, you are laboring just to send 407 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: your earned income to the government so the government can 408 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 1: waste it on things that do not increase productive output 409 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: in our economy. That is a net drain, a net 410 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 1: negative on our economy. Keep in mind what I said 411 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:52,200 Speaker 1: earlier about income taxes, that they were started when nineteen thirteen, 412 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,399 Speaker 1: So from the years eighteen sixty seven through eighteen ninety 413 00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:01,080 Speaker 1: nine there was no income tax. That means you worked 414 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 1: from January through December. For you, You didn't work six 415 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: months out of the year just to pay Uncle Sam 416 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:13,640 Speaker 1: and just to watch Uncle Sam flush those dollars down 417 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:17,679 Speaker 1: the toilet. You kept all that money, and guess what 418 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:19,639 Speaker 1: you got to do with that money that you kept? 419 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 1: Anything you wanted you want to save it great it'll 420 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 1: be worth more next year. You want to invest it. Fantastic, 421 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,879 Speaker 1: You're gonna earn more next year. You can do anything 422 00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,879 Speaker 1: you want with that money. How much greater would our 423 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 1: productive output b if businesses we're receiving fifty more income 424 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:50,679 Speaker 1: as a result of individuals having more money available to 425 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 1: spend every single year, more money to spend every year. 426 00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,119 Speaker 1: How how much easier would it be for you to 427 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 1: get a raise, for you to invest, for you to 428 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 1: save if you had that much additional income every year. 429 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 1: That is what it was like living from eighteen sixty 430 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:14,160 Speaker 1: seven through eighteen ninety nine. The government was a much 431 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 1: smaller burden on the economy during those years. Therefore, all 432 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 1: of the money that was circulating and being spent, there 433 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 1: was freedom associated with that. Individuals got to choose how 434 00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,920 Speaker 1: to save, when to save, what to save, how to invest, 435 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 1: when to invest, what to invest, where to spend, how 436 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 1: to spend, what to spend it on. Individuals got to 437 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: choose that That freedom and the huge increase in individual 438 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 1: wealth as a result, produced the massive economic gains during 439 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 1: those years, and that is why despite the increase in 440 00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 1: the money supply, it was all real economic activity that 441 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 1: was resulting in financial growth and increase in wealth. Instead, 442 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,560 Speaker 1: what we have today is an increase in the money supply, 443 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:20,280 Speaker 1: essentially to fund government spending. We have an increase in 444 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 1: the money supply that's outpacing our increase in GDP, and UH, 445 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 1: it's going to fund government spending. It's monetizing government debt. 446 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 1: It is filtering its way into the economy for people 447 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 1: to try and gather up as much of it as 448 00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,640 Speaker 1: they can for six months just to send back to 449 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 1: the government. And so the size of government is a 450 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 1: huge factor here because it determines how much money is 451 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 1: getting sucked out of the productive, the workforce, the private economy, 452 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 1: out of individual's hands with skin in the game, who 453 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:04,160 Speaker 1: will choose to use money for their own profit, and 454 00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:08,120 Speaker 1: instead it's being sent away to the government, who will 455 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 1: by definition be using it on less productive or profit 456 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 1: destroying UM ventures. Here, now, I do need to I 457 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,520 Speaker 1: do need to UH for this last portion here, we 458 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:23,800 Speaker 1: do need to talk about that because there are there 459 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 1: are definitely many people who disagree with the fact that 460 00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:31,480 Speaker 1: if UM, if an individual sends money to the government, 461 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,160 Speaker 1: that the government's going to waste those resources UH much 462 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 1: more than an individual would. So here's here, here's the 463 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 1: kind of this step by step process by which we 464 00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 1: figure that out. UM. When two individuals engage in exchange 465 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 1: free exchange, UM, there is instantly profit on both sides. 466 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,400 Speaker 1: Here's what I mean by that. When you buy a 467 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 1: cheeseburger for five bucks, you want the cheeseburger more than 468 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: you want the five bucks. The restaurant wants the five 469 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 1: bucks more than they want the cheeseburger. At the moment 470 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 1: that exchange takes place, you guys both profit. You got 471 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 1: the cheeseburger because you valued it more than the five dollars. 472 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:15,360 Speaker 1: You have many dollars in your bank account, so in 473 00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:19,280 Speaker 1: that moment, for that, for that, just those five dollars, 474 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 1: it is more profitable to you to have a cheeseburger 475 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:28,560 Speaker 1: than it is to have five dollars. Now, after that cheeseburger, 476 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 1: let's say you're full. So it is not that cheeseburger 477 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 1: is objectively more valuable than, uh, than the five dollars, 478 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,000 Speaker 1: because once you're full, you do not want to spend 479 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:47,040 Speaker 1: an additional five dollars on a cheeseburger right then, and 480 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,800 Speaker 1: so you keep your next five dollars. So this is 481 00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 1: why profit is subjective and why it happens. Profit is 482 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 1: created anytime there's free exchange. Now you might be thinking 483 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 1: that's preposterous. Only the burger company, only the restaurant profits 484 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 1: in this in this example. Um, and that's just because 485 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 1: we're putting money on one side of this that you 486 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,080 Speaker 1: can't that you might not be able to see this. 487 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:17,240 Speaker 1: So instead of using money, let's go to a barter situation. Um, 488 00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 1: I've got strawberries, you've got bananas. I have a bunch 489 00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 1: of strawberry bushes. You've got a bunch of banana trees. 490 00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 1: And that's the only thing we have. We're on our own, 491 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,560 Speaker 1: separate islands. All I have is strawberries, all you have 492 00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 1: is bananas. Um. So I have as many strawberries as 493 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 1: I want, but because I have so many, I don't 494 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,840 Speaker 1: value them very highly. But on my island, there's no bananas. 495 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 1: Bananas are rare delicacy that people have only heard of. 496 00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:49,520 Speaker 1: And so I travel to your island and I find it. 497 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,520 Speaker 1: You're you're you're full of bananas, but because you have 498 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 1: so many bananas, you don't value them very much. But 499 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 1: for you, strawberries are are the huge, uh, you know, 500 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 1: rare delicacy. So we come up with an agreement. I say, hey, 501 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,360 Speaker 1: I'm gonna well we first we have a discussion before 502 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,080 Speaker 1: the agreement. I say, I'll give you all my strawberries 503 00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 1: and you give me all your bananas. And then we 504 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 1: quickly realize, well, that's preposterous because then we'll just be 505 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,560 Speaker 1: swapping places. Neither of us will be better off. So 506 00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 1: I say, okay, I'll give you, um, half my strawberries 507 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:25,960 Speaker 1: and you give me half your bananas, and that way 508 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 1: we can each have um, you know, strawberries and bananas. 509 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,960 Speaker 1: Are we both better off when this exchange takes place 510 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 1: than we were before? Yes? Are there any more bananas 511 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:42,120 Speaker 1: or any more strawberries? No, The profit happened as a 512 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:46,840 Speaker 1: result of the exchange, not because the strawberries or or 513 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 1: the bananas were objectively more valuable than each other. The 514 00:33:53,400 --> 00:34:00,560 Speaker 1: value is subjective based on the relative scarcity of what 515 00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 1: the individuals have and desire, and so once we engage 516 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,799 Speaker 1: in the exchange, profit is created. Now you might think, well, 517 00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 1: this is just you know, that's preposterous because it's subjective. 518 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,360 Speaker 1: So let's go one more example here. Let's go nails 519 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,160 Speaker 1: and hammers. I've got a bunch of hammers. You've got 520 00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 1: a bunch of nails, guess what, useless by themselves. So 521 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,080 Speaker 1: we go to each other and we say, I'll give 522 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,200 Speaker 1: you half my hammers if you give me half your nails, 523 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:32,240 Speaker 1: and we swap, and now we actually have functioning tools 524 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 1: and resources. There was no more nails created, normally, no 525 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:40,080 Speaker 1: more hammers created. But the exchange created the profit because 526 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:41,799 Speaker 1: now you and I can both go out and use 527 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 1: that to make money. We can go fix things, We 528 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 1: can go hammers and nails into things that we couldn't 529 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 1: have done with before. So the exchange created the profit. 530 00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,040 Speaker 1: And so it's it's because I had hammers that I 531 00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:54,920 Speaker 1: wanted nails, and it's because you had nails that you 532 00:34:54,960 --> 00:35:00,120 Speaker 1: wanted hammers. Now, if we uh extrapolate this to an 533 00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 1: entire economy, when any time when free exchange happens, the 534 00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:09,480 Speaker 1: people individually choose to engage in exchange because they want 535 00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 1: the other thing more than the thing that they're giving up. 536 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,280 Speaker 1: And the only reason that an exchange happens is because 537 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:19,000 Speaker 1: both parties believe that if I was going to be 538 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:23,840 Speaker 1: selling cheeseburgers for you know, and I was selling really 539 00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,640 Speaker 1: uh you know, standard cheeseburgers for a hundred bucks, nobody 540 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,719 Speaker 1: would buy them because they would want their hundred bucks 541 00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:33,319 Speaker 1: more than they would want my standard cheeseburger. But if 542 00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 1: I was dressing it up and putting it in a 543 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,840 Speaker 1: really fancy restaurant with people who are, you know, catering 544 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,759 Speaker 1: to your needs and making sure that you had a 545 00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 1: really great experience, well then you might be willing to 546 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 1: pay a hundred dollars because it's the entire experience that 547 00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,239 Speaker 1: you're willing to pay for. You wanted that experience being 548 00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,759 Speaker 1: catered to more than you wanted the hundred dollars. And 549 00:35:53,840 --> 00:36:00,560 Speaker 1: so when an exchange happens freely, both parties profit. When 550 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:04,960 Speaker 1: people go throughout their lives, all your decisions are made 551 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:09,080 Speaker 1: around uh, subjective value. You do the things that you 552 00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 1: want to do the most that you can, and then 553 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,160 Speaker 1: as you as you do more things, you work your 554 00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,959 Speaker 1: way down that list. And so when you're gonna buy 555 00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:21,600 Speaker 1: things specifically, UM, you are going to purchase the things 556 00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 1: that you value the most first that you can purchase 557 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:29,200 Speaker 1: and work your way down from there. And so when 558 00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,680 Speaker 1: you uh, you know, when you start off your day, 559 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,719 Speaker 1: you're going to go buy uh, You're gonna go buy 560 00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:38,560 Speaker 1: a coffee let's say from Starbucks. In that moment, with 561 00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:40,799 Speaker 1: those dollars, that's the thing that will give you the 562 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,319 Speaker 1: most profit because that will be a tool that will 563 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,080 Speaker 1: allow you to go into work and have energy to 564 00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:48,880 Speaker 1: make more money throughout the day. So in that moment, 565 00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:53,320 Speaker 1: you value that coffee more than you value let's say 566 00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,759 Speaker 1: a cupcake that you might have for dessert later on. 567 00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,839 Speaker 1: Not because uh, it's more expensive or cheaper, or because 568 00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:03,680 Speaker 1: it's objectively more valuable. It's not. It's because that's how 569 00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:08,960 Speaker 1: individuals work, and that's how economic calculation happens. Now let's 570 00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:15,160 Speaker 1: enter the government, because governments exist to make laws. Laws 571 00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:20,920 Speaker 1: exist to change behavior. So think of this. If every 572 00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:25,560 Speaker 1: single person on earth, which they do every morning, wakes up, 573 00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:28,960 Speaker 1: unless you're a night shift then you wake up at night, 574 00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:33,759 Speaker 1: but everybody wakes up after sleeping. If the government were 575 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:38,360 Speaker 1: to pass a law that says, by law, everybody must 576 00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:42,000 Speaker 1: wake up after sleeping, that would be a useless law 577 00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:47,440 Speaker 1: because everybody already does, so that law would never even 578 00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:51,520 Speaker 1: be discussed because the point of a law is to 579 00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:58,120 Speaker 1: change behavior that seems self evident. The point of a 580 00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:02,040 Speaker 1: law is to change behavior. Now we know that humans 581 00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:08,280 Speaker 1: automatically and always organize their actions in order to maximize profit. 582 00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,319 Speaker 1: So let's say the government says, oh, there are too 583 00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:16,120 Speaker 1: many people buying coffee. It's causing coffee being prices to 584 00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:17,960 Speaker 1: go up, and there is a shortage, and we need 585 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,960 Speaker 1: a rash in this, and so any everybody can only 586 00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:24,959 Speaker 1: purchase three coffees every week instead of whenever they want. 587 00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,040 Speaker 1: So Monday morning, you get up and you go buy 588 00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,200 Speaker 1: your coffee like you normally would. But Tuesday morning, now 589 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,360 Speaker 1: you have to make a decision. Do I want to 590 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:36,160 Speaker 1: spread my coffee out this week or do I want 591 00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,799 Speaker 1: to have it all all the first three days. So 592 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,719 Speaker 1: let's say you skip your coffee on Tuesday morning. So 593 00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 1: the law changed your behavior. You do not buy coffee 594 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,200 Speaker 1: on Tuesday morning. Now, instead of doing the thing that 595 00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,840 Speaker 1: would have profited you the most, because that's what you 596 00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:54,080 Speaker 1: would have done absent the law that changed your behavior, 597 00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:56,480 Speaker 1: you have to go down to the next thing on 598 00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,840 Speaker 1: your list, which is maybe buying tea. And maybe that 599 00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:04,399 Speaker 1: buying that tea doesn't change your life too drastically. Maybe that's, 600 00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,880 Speaker 1: you know, an example of something that's very tiny. But 601 00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:08,719 Speaker 1: what are the second and third order effects of this 602 00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,839 Speaker 1: of the decline in the coffee industry, of the lack 603 00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,480 Speaker 1: of the production of new coffee trees, and lack of 604 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,000 Speaker 1: innovation and invention of new ways of growing coffee beans 605 00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:22,839 Speaker 1: on coffee trees, of the increase in resources that are 606 00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:26,640 Speaker 1: being directed towards uh towards tea makers and t tea 607 00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,360 Speaker 1: companies now because all that money that was going to 608 00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:32,640 Speaker 1: go buy coffee is now buying tea as an artificial 609 00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:36,839 Speaker 1: result of the government interference. And now you look at 610 00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,720 Speaker 1: the fact that over the last few decades the Federal 611 00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:43,520 Speaker 1: Register has grown exponentially thousands and thousands of pages of 612 00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:47,239 Speaker 1: laws that are constantly changing people's behaviors. Now you look 613 00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,279 Speaker 1: at the increase in taxes and tax revenue, and all 614 00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,719 Speaker 1: the money that people cannot now spend on the things 615 00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:56,200 Speaker 1: that would profit them more, and all that money six 616 00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:57,919 Speaker 1: months out of the year is just being siphoned away 617 00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,799 Speaker 1: to the government in order for them to spend it 618 00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:04,480 Speaker 1: on things enforcing things that by definition, reduce profit in 619 00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:07,919 Speaker 1: the free market, because that's what laws do. They change behavior. 620 00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,799 Speaker 1: Behavior can't happen that would have maximized profit, and now 621 00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,959 Speaker 1: less profit happens. Then the government gets and enforces something 622 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,239 Speaker 1: to happen that is less profitable that what would have 623 00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:21,480 Speaker 1: happened otherwise. So these are just economic laws and truths 624 00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,640 Speaker 1: and definitions about how calculation works and profit works. And 625 00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,920 Speaker 1: so by definition, if a government causes something to happen, 626 00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,080 Speaker 1: it is less profitable to an economy than what would 627 00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:33,680 Speaker 1: happen otherwise. It's just the truth. It's just the math 628 00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,399 Speaker 1: of how this thing works out. Now you can say 629 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:40,600 Speaker 1: that that's a good thing. You can make an argument saying, well, 630 00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,880 Speaker 1: I think that's worth it. I think that we should 631 00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:47,920 Speaker 1: have a destruction of profit in some sense in order 632 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:51,359 Speaker 1: to uh, you know, have you know, some amount of 633 00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,560 Speaker 1: safety or some amount of comfort, or some amount of 634 00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,520 Speaker 1: social good or whatever it is. What you can't do 635 00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:02,440 Speaker 1: is say that by the government establishing these laws and 636 00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:07,600 Speaker 1: raising taxes and changing behavior, that they're increasing the amount 637 00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:14,400 Speaker 1: of wealth. That's absolutely false, the opposite of what happens. 638 00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:19,120 Speaker 1: And so coming back full circle to what happened to 639 00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,840 Speaker 1: the money supply during the period of eighteen sixty seven 640 00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:29,719 Speaker 1: through eighteen nine versus uh eighteen versus nineteen seven through 641 00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:34,919 Speaker 1: nineteen the money supply increased at just about the same rate. 642 00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:41,960 Speaker 1: Most likely the government size was vastly different. So all 643 00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:47,640 Speaker 1: of individuals innovation and savings and personal preferences about where 644 00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:51,640 Speaker 1: to direct their resources and working productive increases led to 645 00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:54,799 Speaker 1: a massive increase in wealth, meaning that we had deflation 646 00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,360 Speaker 1: because the money supply did not increase faster than the 647 00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,200 Speaker 1: amount of wealth did. The wealth increased faster, so there 648 00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:04,160 Speaker 1: is less money available to chase the amount of goods 649 00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,279 Speaker 1: and services, not because there was less money total, but 650 00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,880 Speaker 1: just because the amount of goods and services went up 651 00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:14,040 Speaker 1: so fast that the prices went down versus what we 652 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:18,120 Speaker 1: have recently, where we have the money supply increasing rapidly 653 00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:23,200 Speaker 1: and the total amount of wealth increasing less rapidly. The 654 00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,600 Speaker 1: result of that is prices going up. The result of 655 00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:31,200 Speaker 1: that is income earners, wage earners having to constantly seek 656 00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:37,320 Speaker 1: wage increases just to make ends meet, just to maintain 657 00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:41,320 Speaker 1: their lifestyle, just to continue running on the hamster wheel, 658 00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:45,520 Speaker 1: no way to live. So that is the difference between 659 00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:52,000 Speaker 1: those decades and why you can, UH in explanation, boil 660 00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,759 Speaker 1: things down to the simplest form, but then when you 661 00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,640 Speaker 1: really dive deep, you want you have to make sure 662 00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:02,960 Speaker 1: that you are comparing apples to apples. And UH, when 663 00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:08,000 Speaker 1: I say, when I say the basic simple statements. It's 664 00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:12,600 Speaker 1: always with the under the assumption built in all else 665 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,320 Speaker 1: being equal, and as we know, most of the time, 666 00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:19,680 Speaker 1: all else is not equal. Many times there are other 667 00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:23,560 Speaker 1: factors coming into play that change things. So we'd like 668 00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,080 Speaker 1: to understand the way things work first and then look 669 00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:29,160 Speaker 1: at how it applies in reality. And that is the reality, 670 00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:33,040 Speaker 1: and unfortunately looks like increasingly so we'll have more and 671 00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:37,040 Speaker 1: more government intervention, but it cannot last forever. And the 672 00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:41,560 Speaker 1: more we know about how money works, how this system works, 673 00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:44,000 Speaker 1: the better prepared we are to be able to navigate 674 00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,360 Speaker 1: it effectively. If we know this is the game that 675 00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:50,160 Speaker 1: we're playing, we can align our lives and our investments 676 00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:54,319 Speaker 1: and our activities to make more money off of the 677 00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,480 Speaker 1: real rules of the game, rather than just kind of 678 00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:01,839 Speaker 1: blindly going along and hoping everything works out. Okay, um, 679 00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,839 Speaker 1: so this is the reality. We have to build our 680 00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,960 Speaker 1: lives according to reality, not according to the way that 681 00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:08,759 Speaker 1: we wish it would be. We can talk about the 682 00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:12,120 Speaker 1: way that we think it should be, but uh, it's 683 00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:17,000 Speaker 1: more productive to align our lives with the way that 684 00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:19,600 Speaker 1: it is rather than the way that it should be. 685 00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,640 Speaker 1: And all the while still pushing for things to be 686 00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:27,240 Speaker 1: the way they should be. Thank you so much for listening, 687 00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:31,919 Speaker 1: and wish you all very happy holiday. Christmas is coming 688 00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:33,839 Speaker 1: up in a few days. I hope you all have 689 00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:38,359 Speaker 1: fantastic time with family and loved ones. And uh, we'll 690 00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:40,120 Speaker 1: talk next year.