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Speaker 1: for an instant reaction. I thought al Michaels and Kirkharshet
Speaker 1: were very good tonight because the game was very good.
Speaker 1: It's hard to do a bad NFL game when you
Speaker 1: get really poor quarterback play. There's only so much you
Speaker 1: can do. And I think sometimes people are over critical
Speaker 1: of al Michaels and you know, to consume with his age.
Speaker 1: I thought he was sharp tonight, funny, quick witted that
Speaker 1: line at the end and another kind of tush push
Speaker 1: when Micah Parsons was blocked by Lucas the Seattle right
Speaker 1: tackle and he backed into him. So I thought it
Speaker 1: was a really really good product tonight, and I thought
Speaker 1: it was a really good football game. I mean, again,
Speaker 1: couldn't you imagine Seattle scoring thirty five points if you've
Speaker 1: watched their offense in the last month, And can you
Speaker 1: imagine Dallas's defense being that lousy against Geno Smith. It
Speaker 1: was a really good game. First, I want to address
Speaker 1: the penalties. There were too many flags. I had a
Speaker 1: head coach in the NFL and a couple executives text
Speaker 1: me during the game, They're like, this is brutal. I
Speaker 1: will say this not in defense of the officials, because
Speaker 1: I just I think I don't understand you should throw
Speaker 1: a flag when you see a penalty. I think sometimes
Speaker 1: referees anticipate penalties. Call what you see, not what you anticipate. Now,
Speaker 1: I will say dan Quinn, who used to coach under
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll, is very aggressive, and Pete Carroll's defense can
Speaker 1: be very aggressive. So you had two of the most
Speaker 1: aggressive defensive guys in the NFL working tonight. And what
Speaker 1: does that mean. It means you're going to have corners,
Speaker 1: safeties riding tight ends and wide receivers more than an
Speaker 1: average Bellichick. Pete Carroll, dan Quinn, Tomlin. These are very
Speaker 1: aggressive defensive coaches and officials get into situations where they
Speaker 1: want to set the tone, and so they start calling
Speaker 1: penalties early to set the tone, and dan Quinn and
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll don't pull back they keep telling their players
Speaker 1: to be aggressive. So the officials have already set the
Speaker 1: tone in the game, and now they're going to keep
Speaker 1: calling penalties because they want to be consistent. I still
Speaker 1: thought they missed a couple. There were a couple of
Speaker 1: tiki tak calls on the Seahawks' corners, But that's my
Speaker 1: explanation for it. Dan Quinn and Pete Carroll are aggressive referees,
Speaker 1: try to set a tone, and then they realized, we've
Speaker 1: set the tone. We got to be consistent. We just
Speaker 1: called stuff that looked like that earlier. We got to
Speaker 1: call this. You know, you have to be very careful
Speaker 1: about confirmation bias. We all have strong feelings about things,
Speaker 1: but over time there's no one truth with anything. So
Speaker 1: when Aaron Roger and Mike McCarthy broke up, I think
Speaker 1: the feeling was Aaron could be prickly and difficult, but
Speaker 1: McCarthy maybe wasn't up to snuff, and so they bring
Speaker 1: in Matt Lafleur, and for a couple of years we
Speaker 1: just think, oh boy, Aaron's finally got his guy. Aaron
Speaker 1: has a better career playoff record with Mike McCarthy above
Speaker 1: five hundred than he does Matt Lafleur under five hundred.
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy goes to Dallas. We don't love his situational coaching,
Speaker 1: but he has a winning record with Farv Rogers, Dak
Speaker 1: and Cooper Rush. And this is the best I have
Speaker 1: ever seen Dak Prescott. He feels a notch better than
Speaker 1: he's ever been in his career. Now he's getting better
Speaker 1: protection from Tyron Smith on the left, who's healthy again.
Speaker 1: He and Ceedee Lamb now is an elite connection. Ferguson
Speaker 1: the tight end now is getting more and more productive.
Speaker 1: They don't have a consistent run game, but Dak was
Speaker 1: twenty nine of forty one three TVs no picks in
Speaker 1: three hundred yards. I thought he was excellent tonight. Excellent tonight. Well,
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy gets some credit for that, and Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: had arguably his best year with Mike McCarthy and Farv's
Speaker 1: last year he was thirteen and three, and Cooper Rush
Speaker 1: looked like kind of a quasi starter with Mike McCarthy.
Speaker 1: So four or five years ago we view Mike McCarthy
Speaker 1: as one thing, and now we have to look around
Speaker 1: and go, you know, he Pete Carroll John Harbaugh, Doug Peterson,
Speaker 1: Sean Payton, all have a Super Bowl, all have a
Speaker 1: second job in the NFL and are building a winning
Speaker 1: program at that NFL franchise. So to me, Mike McCarthy
Speaker 1: is Harbaugh, is Pete is Doug Peterson? Is Sean Payton
Speaker 1: second time around winning again? You know, and speaking of
Speaker 1: that about our initial perceptions, So what if Sean Payton
Speaker 1: gets the Denver job, doesn't new TV for Fox and
Speaker 1: Nathaniel Hackett never does, or our initial perception is Pete really
Speaker 1: pulled it over John Snyder, and Pete really pulled one
Speaker 1: on Denver. They got Geno Smith, We got Geno Smith,
Speaker 1: they get Russell Wilson. He's washed. But if Sean Payton
Speaker 1: doesn't do TV and just takes that Denver job, Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson looks exactly precisely like he looked in Seattle. One
Speaker 1: hundred plus passer rating, twitchy playmaking moves out of the pocket,
Speaker 1: makes big throws, very few turnovers. And we don't view
Speaker 1: that as Pete Carolyn john Snyder getting one over on
Speaker 1: the Broncos. We say, you give up a better quarterback
Speaker 1: in a quarterback league, and you have Geno Smith, right.
Speaker 1: Last five weeks, Peyton and Russell Wilson looked like Seattle
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, who is an a quarterback. So I look
Speaker 1: at Seattle now, and you got yourself a five hundred
Speaker 1: team with one big win this year at Detroit. That's
Speaker 1: a nice win. But now the Rams are playing better.
Speaker 1: San Francisco's clearly better, Dallas is better, Philadelphia is better,
Speaker 1: you know, keep your eye on. I still think Detroit
Speaker 1: is better than Seattle. They certainly are now, and keep
Speaker 1: your eye in Minnesota and the winner of the NFC South.
Speaker 1: So what is Seattle today a five hundred team that
Speaker 1: needs a quarterback to get to the next level? What
Speaker 1: is Denver today the hottest team in the AFC with
Speaker 1: a franchise quarterback and a Hall of Fame potential coach
Speaker 1: and a lot of good players. So McCarthy, Russell Wilson,
Speaker 1: Gino Smith got to be careful about having really strong
Speaker 1: opinions and not being willing to look at a story
Speaker 1: as it evolves and changes, and stories change all the time.
Speaker 1: I can feel strongly about a political candidate one year,
Speaker 1: he makes some missteps, so I don't feel the same.
Speaker 1: I've said this before. You can have a stock in
Speaker 1: a company, and then all of a sudden the company
Speaker 1: Apple makes some missteps. I used to own a lot
Speaker 1: of Starbucks stock, don't owe as much now. Nothing against Starbucks,
Speaker 1: great company. The course of time I've had it sold
Speaker 1: it had it sold it based on the momentum the company.
Speaker 1: You know. So you've got to be willing to look
Speaker 1: at stuff and be honest and not be stubborn. And
Speaker 1: you know the Seattle Denver trade. Now, I'd rather have
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson and Gino Smith. Now Seattle may draft Bo
Speaker 1: Nicks or Michael Pennox and in a year I feel
Speaker 1: again like Seattle won. But if Denver doesn't hire Nathaniel Hackett,
Speaker 1: that never looks like a landslide that it did. Briefly,
Speaker 1: Let's go back to the Cowboys. So the knock in
Speaker 1: the Cowboys was going into this game. They'd beaten the
Speaker 1: Giants twice, the Jets, Washington, New England, Carolina beat up
Speaker 1: Rams team, and the Chargers, well, Rams are now pretty good.
Speaker 1: Chargers are talented. You know, Seattle's competent, and Washington's always
Speaker 1: in most games they're a nine and three football team.
Speaker 1: I don't think there was talented as San Francisco, but
Speaker 1: I do think they present some things where you can
Speaker 1: are they can go toe to toe and beat Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: And the number one reason is the Cowboys have seven
Speaker 1: blowout wins, and over the last decade, nine of ten
Speaker 1: Super Bowl teams have averaged seven to eight blowout wins.
Speaker 1: Dallas has seven, Philadelphia has two. So San Francisco and
Speaker 1: Dallas are the two teams in the NFC that blow
Speaker 1: people out. They flex because they can. Philadelphia love to
Speaker 1: blow people out, but they can't. They're back end of
Speaker 1: their defense is weak. Offensively, Jalen Hurts is terrific, but
Speaker 1: he has become a very good second half quarterback and
Speaker 1: can struggle in the first half. They've trailed their last
Speaker 1: four games at half. So I think if you're a
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboy fan, I've always had the kind of the
Speaker 1: same feeling about the Cowboys for the last twenty five years.
Speaker 1: I always say, Tony Romo is pretty good, the Cowboys
Speaker 1: are pretty good, Jason Garrett was pretty good, Mike McCarthy's
Speaker 1: pretty good, Deck's pretty good, and I'm always right. They
Speaker 1: always went about nine or ten games, maybe eleven twelve.
Speaker 1: But I never feel that our Super Bowl team. I
Speaker 1: do believe eve if Ceedee Lamb stays healthy and Tyron
Speaker 1: Smith the left tackle, stay healthy because Dak's having a
Speaker 1: good year and McCarthy's obviously elevating Dak, that if they
Speaker 1: can stay healthy with Tyron Smith, Ferguson's you know, productive,
Speaker 1: and Ceedee Lamb, they can they can win shootouts, and
Speaker 1: they're good enough defensively, there'll be a good team playing
Speaker 1: with a lead because of the pass rush. I do
Speaker 1: wish they went and acquired like a Derreck Henry at
Speaker 1: the trade deadline. I think what they really miss is
Speaker 1: they have a lead in the game and they just
Speaker 1: want to eat the clock. They want to power run it,
Speaker 1: and they're not really that's not what they're built to do.
Speaker 1: They can score, they can score quickly, they can score
Speaker 1: a lot, but I don't I feel like they miss
Speaker 1: sort of that power offense where they could just hand
Speaker 1: it off to a Derek Henry and just say six
Speaker 1: minute drive, let's pick up first downs, never drop back
Speaker 1: to throw so and I think San Francisco can do that,
Speaker 1: Philadelphia can do that. They're the better teams. Baltimore can
Speaker 1: do that, the better teams in the league can do it,
Speaker 1: and I don't think Dallas can. But we have to
Speaker 1: be honest about Mike McCarthy. We have to be fair
Speaker 1: and reasonable. And Mike McCarthy has taken Dak Prescott, you know,
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago pretty ugly injury. Michael Gallup's
Speaker 1: never been what they thought. Brandon Cooks isn't what everybody
Speaker 1: promised he would be. They lost Dalton Schultz, they couldn't
Speaker 1: afford him Amari Cooper, and you look up today. Dallas's
Speaker 1: good football team. And I've been calling them pretty good
Speaker 1: for twenty five years. I think they're very good. I
Speaker 1: think they're a very good football team. And I haven't
Speaker 1: gone pretty good to very good in Dallas many times.
Speaker 1: But you can't get too caught up on the fact
Speaker 1: that their defense gave up a bunch of points tonight. Listen,
Speaker 1: it's the NFL. It's in college football. DK Metcalf was
Speaker 1: a huge matchup problem. See ALA's got Lockett, the rookie receiver,
Speaker 1: Noah Fense, a huge body. DJ Metcalf and I thought
Speaker 1: their offensive line tonight. You know, i' rated some holes early,
Speaker 1: especially on the ground. You'll Seattle's got a lot of talent.
Speaker 1: They've Shane Waldron's a respected offensive coordinator. You're not gonna
Speaker 1: throw shutouts right that the defensive rules don't allow it.
Speaker 1: You're not keeping talented teams and veteran coaching staffs to
Speaker 1: seventeen points every week. It happens. But I think I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go from pretty good to very good for the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: And I have not done that much, and Mike McCarthy
Speaker 1: deserves credit, and I've been critical. But dex twenty nine
Speaker 1: to forty one, three hundred yards three DD's no picks.
Speaker 1: That's big boy football. How about them Cowboys? November is here.
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Speaker 1: guaranteed time for another edition is sharp or square. I
Speaker 1: did not do Thanksgiving picks. I think I would have
Speaker 1: been about two two and one. I didn't think Dallas
Speaker 1: would cover the spread. Missed on the Lions, but had
Speaker 1: a couple other picks. So let's just start with this week.
Speaker 1: I've been taking more favorites. I think is the season
Speaker 1: Ebbs better quarterbacks because there's so many injuries, can overcome
Speaker 1: banged up rosters. So my first take is Chargers minus
Speaker 1: five and a half at New England. I do not
Speaker 1: believe the Patriots want to win. I believe they want
Speaker 1: the third pick. How do I know this? Because of
Speaker 1: some of the moves they've made in the secondary with
Speaker 1: players deactivating them and releasing them. They did not want
Speaker 1: to beat the Giants. They play, they don't announce the quarterback.
Speaker 1: I don't love the Chargers, but you have a staff
Speaker 1: playing for their lives. I'm taking the Chargers minus five
Speaker 1: and a half. Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Number one, Colin, if you didn't make any picks, you
Speaker 2: wouldn't have gone to two and one. You would have
Speaker 2: gone five. And that's just the way it goes. Number
Speaker 2: two on this one, the wise guys are against you.
Speaker 2: The line was at six, it's moved down to five
Speaker 2: and a half. This is not about the Patriots. You're
Speaker 2: not finding wise guys who are saying, boy, I'm really
Speaker 2: excited to bet On Bailey z Appy and I think
Speaker 2: this team is really primed to do something great. It's
Speaker 2: fading the Chargers. You say this team is this coaching
Speaker 2: staff is fighting for its lives. I think it's already over.
Speaker 2: I think the wise guys think it's over. It's not
Speaker 2: a team that's in playoff contention. It's not a team
Speaker 2: that's going to make the playoffs. It's a team with
Speaker 2: an incredible amount of talent that continues to not be
Speaker 2: able to execute. There's no reason for this team to
Speaker 2: be a six point now five and a half point
Speaker 2: favorite on the road. It's not good enough defensively. They
Speaker 2: haven't proven to be good enough offensively in terms of executing.
Speaker 2: Keenan Allen has there's ninety seven receptions. He's second in
Speaker 2: the league in receiving yardage. It's the quietest, most irrelevant
Speaker 2: combination of great stats you're gonna see from a wide
Speaker 2: receiver on a team that doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: It's not the best number. I thought the bet of
Speaker 1: the week was the Niners plus points at the Eagles,
Speaker 1: but extra time to prepare for San Francisco, healthy, little
Speaker 1: revenge edge, and the number of snaps Philadelphia's defense, not
Speaker 1: very good to begin with, was on the field. I'm
Speaker 1: still going to take the Niners. I think they could
Speaker 1: win by seven to ten. By the way, super Bowl
Speaker 1: champs dating back seven years on average have eight blowout wins.
Speaker 1: Philadelphia has two. They we think they're a Super Bowl
Speaker 1: team because they're very good in these one possession games.
Speaker 1: So was Minnesota last year, the Seahawks two three years ago,
Speaker 1: the Cowboys three years ago. Those teams get eliminated fast
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. San Francisco is the better team. They
Speaker 1: win here by seven points. Sharper square, totally sharp. The
Speaker 1: wise guys were on this look Sunday night. It was
Speaker 1: moving from two and a half before the Bills game
Speaker 1: was over. It was down to San Francisco plus two
Speaker 1: and a half San Francisco plus one before the game
Speaker 1: was over. Literally, I was trying to make a bet
Speaker 1: on Sunday night on the Niners at plus one, and
Speaker 1: before I could click done, the line moved from plus
Speaker 1: one to minus one Niners, and then it's gone up
Speaker 1: to two and a half. Every time it goes up
Speaker 1: to three, the wise guys take the Eagles of plus three.
Speaker 1: Then the other wise guys take the Niners at minus
Speaker 1: two and a half.
Speaker 2: You said something really important. The Niners are blowing teams
Speaker 2: out When Deebo, Samuel and Trent Williams are playing. This
Speaker 2: team is eight to zero. They're winning by an average
Speaker 2: of twenty one points. The team has not played in
Speaker 2: ten days. They're as healthy as they've ever been. The Eagles,
Speaker 2: as you noted, had a lot of snaps. They played
Speaker 2: ninety five snaps in a really bloody war against the
Speaker 2: Bills in a rainy, rainy Sunday game. They have not
Speaker 2: had as much time to get healthy. And I was
Speaker 2: listening to other podcasts like NFL Players, they talk on
Speaker 2: these on these podcasts, they made it one of those.
Speaker 2: Chris Long on his podcast made a really good point.
Speaker 2: Every hour counts when you are trying to recuper rate
Speaker 2: for the next week. This is not a good spot
Speaker 2: for the Eagles.
Speaker 1: This is why the wise guys have been all over there,
Speaker 1: not getting the mess number at all. I like the
Speaker 1: Lions minus four, but I'll take them minus four and
Speaker 1: a half. I think Dennis Allen is in the race
Speaker 1: for the worst coach in the league. I think they
Speaker 1: massively underachieve Derek Carr. You know, I always saw him
Speaker 1: as a life preserver of the Raiders. Maybe he's just
Speaker 1: checked down. Charlie and not very good. Lions have been
Speaker 1: beaten now not feeling good about themselves. I don't think
Speaker 1: the Saints can beat them at their weakness. I think
Speaker 1: Detroit humiliated extra time to prepare bounces back. I'll take
Speaker 1: him to cover. Not the best number. Sharper square.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's there's not a consensus on this game. The
Speaker 2: wise guys lean Saints. It's why the number has sort
Speaker 2: of stayed where it is because the majority of the action,
Speaker 2: the public action, is all coming in on the Lions,
Speaker 2: and we saw it like and it's been at four
Speaker 2: basically since Monday. And when there's that much money coming
Speaker 2: in on one side and the line really doesn't move,
Speaker 2: it's because the wise guys are sort of anchoring it
Speaker 2: in place, right, And so you know that the wise
Speaker 2: guys have been taken the Saints here. It's not like
Speaker 2: it's going to be their biggest bet of the week.
Speaker 2: There are other games that the wise guys love a
Speaker 2: lot more, but they like the number here not because
Speaker 2: of what the Saints can do or necessarily what the
Speaker 2: Lions can't do. The last couple of weeks, Jared Goff
Speaker 2: hasn't played as well right, and Dan Campbell, who's a
Speaker 2: brilliant football coach, also has an incredibly good offensive line
Speaker 2: and he's got two really good running backs, and playing
Speaker 2: against the Saints, he has an opportunity to control the
Speaker 2: clock and let those guys run. It shortens the game,
Speaker 2: but it also means potentially less scoring, so it just
Speaker 2: might not be as big of a margin, which is
Speaker 2: why the wise guys like that.
Speaker 1: The game I'm betting solely because of the number. I
Speaker 1: think the Texans probably win, but I would take Denver
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. I worry about the regression
Speaker 1: of the turnovers, which have gone all Denver's way in
Speaker 1: the last month, but they've also created many of those.
Speaker 1: The thing about Denver is their defense now is a story,
Speaker 1: and their run game they don't make mistakes. They keep
Speaker 1: it very much in the fairway. Houston's still young. CJ.
Speaker 1: Stroud is still young. He will face pressure. I think
Speaker 1: it's a field goal game. But the hook, I'd take
Speaker 1: Denver plus three and a half. You know, at this
Speaker 1: point in the year, you take the hook if you
Speaker 1: feel strongly about a team. Denver's won five straight. It's
Speaker 1: not luck. They're creating a lot of their own opportunities.
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson now making more plays, running more. Run game
Speaker 1: is very solid, and both can also be active in
Speaker 1: the screen game. I'll take Denver in the point Sharper Square.
Speaker 2: The coaches you want to bet on the past twenty
Speaker 2: years Colin Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Sean Payton,
Speaker 2: and before the past couple of years, Bill Belichick. Those
Speaker 2: guys cash tickets. They are profitable coaches. By the way,
Speaker 2: Dennis Allen, I meant to mention this, one hundred and
Speaker 2: forty three coaches in the past twenty years, he's one
Speaker 2: hundred and forty second as the least profitable coach. So
Speaker 2: one more reason why you might be right to bet
Speaker 2: the Lions. But I think that the hook, what you're
Speaker 2: talking about, getting the hook is the right side here. Wise,
Speaker 2: guys have been a little bit all over this one,
Speaker 2: like getting bet at hard when it was at two
Speaker 2: and a half for the Texans, it's gotten a three
Speaker 2: and a half. They've come back a little bit on
Speaker 2: the Broncos. I think they are just playing the number.
Speaker 2: If it's below three, they're playing the Texans. If it's
Speaker 2: above three, they're playing the Broncos.
Speaker 1: I would take Cardinals plus five and a half at
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I think Kyler Murray is so much better
Speaker 1: than Kenny Pickett, it's hard to imagine. Also, they were humiliated,
Speaker 1: the Rams pushed them around. Some of that was injury related.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh probably wins. That offense is not worthy of five
Speaker 1: and a half points. I'm gonna take the Cards. Sharper square.
Speaker 2: I just mentioned Mike Tomlin one of the most profitable
Speaker 2: coaches the past twenty years. That's because he wins so
Speaker 2: often when he is an underdog, not just covering the spread,
Speaker 2: but winning outright. He is no good as a favorite
Speaker 2: of more than three, thirty seven percent against the spread
Speaker 2: in his career as a favorite of more than three.
Speaker 2: And let's not be fooled by the fact they gained
Speaker 2: four hundred yards of offense the first game after Matt
Speaker 2: Canada leaves. Kenny Pickett is not an accurate passer and
Speaker 2: they got the right team in the right spot with
Speaker 2: a backup quarterback the Cardinals. While they got pushed around
Speaker 2: by the Rams, they did keep it close against the Texans.
Speaker 2: They covered against the Texans that was a five point game.
Speaker 2: The scary thing here and this was a lot of
Speaker 2: conversations I had with wise guys this week. Kyler Murray
Speaker 2: is so good scrambling. Since he's back, He's averaged nine
Speaker 2: point four yards per scramble. He's a first down every
Speaker 2: time he leaves the pocket. The one thing the Steelers
Speaker 2: will want to do is rush the passer. That is
Speaker 2: what they are best at as a defensive unit. Kyler
Speaker 2: Murray is able to combat that, and it leaves the
Speaker 2: back door for this team why to open the entire game,
Speaker 2: because the Steelers won't be able to run away with
Speaker 2: it in terms of scoring. So that's why the wise
Speaker 2: guys are backing you and back.
Speaker 1: In the Packers or the side I would imagine at
Speaker 1: plus five and a half and Mahomes is a bad
Speaker 1: cover if it's over like four or five. I do
Speaker 1: think Kansas City found a little bit of their way
Speaker 1: in the second half. I think Rashi Rice is starting
Speaker 1: to look like a one. Jordan Love is overvalued. The
Speaker 1: Chargers and the Lions secondaries are really really bad, and
Speaker 1: Kansas City's isn't. I'm going to bet the Chiefs. I
Speaker 1: know it's square.
Speaker 2: Comment on it, Well, it's square, just this, but it's interesting.
Speaker 2: It's interesting because this is a game the wise guys
Speaker 2: have sort of planted a flag and the sand on
Speaker 2: and they've decided that Jordan Love since week nine is
Speaker 2: a top five quarterback. And there are a lot of stats,
Speaker 2: a lot of the advanced metrics you can look at
Speaker 2: EPA things like that. They will tell you that Jordan
Speaker 2: Love has been incredibly good the past five weeks and
Speaker 2: You can also look at what the Chiefs have done
Speaker 2: and take last week against the Raiders with a grain
Speaker 2: of salt. They have been terrible in the second half.
Speaker 2: Second half unders with the Chiefs this year eleven and zero.
Speaker 2: They are not a team scoring in the second half.
Speaker 2: So what the wise guys are banking on is an
Speaker 2: improving quarterback against a team that has not been scoring
Speaker 2: in the second half, and the opportunity to keep the
Speaker 2: game close when they are at home as a big underdog,
Speaker 2: and especially these primetime games, they have been trending towards
Speaker 2: the under and so when you have a game that
Speaker 2: is going to be low scoring, the bigger under JG
Speaker 2: tends to cover.
Speaker 1: All right, we do something. I want you to talk
Speaker 1: me into a game. Rams look really good, so they'll,
Speaker 1: I imagine, pull back against Cleveland. So the Browns plus
Speaker 1: four and a half. Now it's three and a half
Speaker 1: all odds provided by DraftKings. My guess is the Sharps
Speaker 1: like Cleveland, but now Joe Flacco is a viable starter
Speaker 1: that is not good. Their offensive lines beat up, Miles
Speaker 1: Garrett will play. I imagine the Browns are the side.
Speaker 1: Tell me how the wise guys think, because I got
Speaker 1: to tell you the Rams have solved their O line issues.
Speaker 1: They're healthy now, Kymeron Williams. It's a real run game.
Speaker 1: I think Raheem Morris is one of the most underrated
Speaker 1: coordinators in the league. That defense is kids. They are
Speaker 1: playing really sound football. I could see the Rams winning again.
Speaker 1: Tell me why the wise guys probably like the points here.
Speaker 2: Well, they do like the points here, and they like
Speaker 2: Cleveland and the points and part of it is, Look,
Speaker 2: the Rams offensive line running game will be good no
Speaker 2: matter who the quarterback is, and that is something that
Speaker 2: will always keep you in the game. And Miles Garrett, look,
Speaker 2: there was no structural damage. He came out right away
Speaker 2: and said he's going to be playing. He'll take whatever
Speaker 2: painkiller he needs to take. I don't worry about Miles Garrett.
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett with one arm is still a tremendous playmaker.
Speaker 2: And don't forget he's got help right Like, he's got
Speaker 2: help on the other side of the edge rushing line,
Speaker 2: he's got help in the defensive backfield. There's playmakers at
Speaker 2: every level for that team. And you know, Jim Schwartz
Speaker 2: is just going to call these insane aggressive schemes against
Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford. And you say the offensive line is improving.
Speaker 2: I say the offensive line is still struggling. And that
Speaker 2: is a real detriment for the Rams. This is not
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. The Cardinals are one of the worst defenses
Speaker 2: in the league. They can't stop the run. It made
Speaker 2: everything so much easier for Matthew Stafford and the Rams,
Speaker 2: and Kyron Williams coming back had the exact game that
Speaker 2: he expected, that everyone expected him to have. It's why
Speaker 2: the Wise guys were a little chalky last week, and
Speaker 2: they liked the Rams. They kept betting the Rams up.
Speaker 2: So that's why. Also why the Wise guys are on Cleveland.
Speaker 1: So give me a couple of games I missed, you like,
Speaker 1: try to talk me into something.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the New York Jets plus two and
Speaker 2: a half against Funny.
Speaker 1: I just mentioned this off the air to j Mac yesterday.
Speaker 1: I thought it's interesting. I Atlanta. You know, people want
Speaker 1: to have every coach fired. But when I watch Atlanta,
Speaker 1: I don't look at a poorly coach team. When I
Speaker 1: look at the Saints or the Chargers, I look at
Speaker 1: a poorly coach team. I think Arthur Smith is fine.
Speaker 1: He just doesn't have a quarterback, So so tell me
Speaker 1: the side.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well it's the Jets. And there's a couple of
Speaker 2: different factors here. Number one, you're talking about a team.
Speaker 1: Let's talk.
Speaker 2: Let's talk from a trend perspective, right, Teams that have
Speaker 2: been blown out the previous week against teams that haven't
Speaker 2: been blown out the previous week, say twenty points or
Speaker 2: more in the blowout, they covered a sixty percent clip
Speaker 2: the past five years. So who are we talking about
Speaker 2: this week. We're talking about Cleveland, We're talking about Washington,
Speaker 2: We're talking about the New York Jets, right, So that's
Speaker 2: number one. Number two, let's look on the field, this
Speaker 2: Jets defense. The past few weeks, who have they played.
Speaker 2: They've gone up against Tua, They've gone up against Justin Herbert,
Speaker 2: They've played really good quarterbacks. That is hard to do
Speaker 2: every single week. They find relief this week against Desmond Ridder.
Speaker 2: He is not an NFL quarterback. As soon as this
Speaker 2: season is over, you are not going to hear from
Speaker 2: Desmond Ridder anymore. And I agree with you, Arthur Smith.
Speaker 2: I think he's a great coach. I love watching his offenses.
Speaker 2: I think from a running schemes as interesting and sophisticated
Speaker 2: as it gets in the NFL, but they don't really
Speaker 2: have the weapons. That dest member can't get the ball
Speaker 2: to his weapons, and so you've got an incredible defense
Speaker 2: at every level going against a really bad quarterback outside
Speaker 2: on the road in what could be the last chance
Speaker 2: for the Jets to prove defensively how much pride they have.
Speaker 2: And who knows, maybe they got a little bit of
Speaker 2: a kick from Aaron Rodgers coming back to practice this week,
Speaker 2: but emotionally, this is the spot where you want to.
Speaker 1: Take the Jets. Give me one more Washington.
Speaker 2: Well, Washington's an interesting one, right, I'm looking at my
Speaker 2: notes here. Washington is the other one. Like we hit Arizona,
Speaker 2: we hit the Niners, we hit Green Bay. We just
Speaker 2: hit the Jets. There are two other games Tennessee plus
Speaker 2: one just because I like Vrabel as an underdog, and
Speaker 2: I also think that Tennessee can run the ball against
Speaker 2: a Colts defense that Grover Stewart, who was in the
Speaker 2: first six weeks and has been out for the past
Speaker 2: month with the suspension. When he was in, that was
Speaker 2: a very good rush defense. When he is out, that
Speaker 2: rush defense is near the bottom of the league, and
Speaker 2: so I think there is an opportunity for Vrabel to
Speaker 2: keep the ball out of will Levis's hands. So I
Speaker 2: like Rabel as a dog at home, almost automatically. Anyways,
Speaker 2: what are you gonna do with Washington?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: Sam Howell is having a brilliant year, and this Miami
Speaker 2: Dolphins team has struggled to cover big numbers on the road.
Speaker 2: They are great at home, but they struggle to cover
Speaker 2: big numbers on the road. So you're gonna be on
Speaker 2: the road. It's not supposed to be great. Weather, could
Speaker 2: be windy, could be rainy. I think Eric b Enemy
Speaker 2: has been having an incredible season as an offensive coordinator.
Speaker 2: I think he's probably the leading candidate to be that
Speaker 2: team's head coach next year when Ron Rivera is gone.
Speaker 2: And so you're gonna have a chance to cover a
Speaker 2: big number because Washington's never gonna be out of it.
Speaker 2: The challenge is their defense is terrible, right, and so
Speaker 2: you know that every time you get the ball, you're
Speaker 2: gonna have to score a touchdown if you want to
Speaker 2: be in this game. The good news is you're down
Speaker 2: by sixteen points late in the game, it's over. But
Speaker 2: there's two minutes left. You got the ball on your
Speaker 2: twenty five yard line. The Dolphins have just scored. Sam
Speaker 2: Howell goes down the field. You're coming through the back door.
Speaker 2: You lose by nine. You cover the number.
Speaker 1: Chad Milman, CEO Action Network. All al is provided by
Speaker 1: Draft Kings. Good to see anybody, Good to see you too.
Speaker 1: Man the volume