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Speaker 1: for an instant reaction. I thought al Michaels and Kirkharshet

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Speaker 1: were very good tonight because the game was very good.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to do a bad NFL game when you

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Speaker 1: get really poor quarterback play. There's only so much you

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Speaker 1: can do. And I think sometimes people are over critical

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Speaker 1: of al Michaels and you know, to consume with his age.

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Speaker 1: I thought he was sharp tonight, funny, quick witted that

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Speaker 1: line at the end and another kind of tush push

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Speaker 1: when Micah Parsons was blocked by Lucas the Seattle right

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Speaker 1: tackle and he backed into him. So I thought it

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Speaker 1: was a really really good product tonight, and I thought

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Speaker 1: it was a really good football game. I mean, again,

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Speaker 1: couldn't you imagine Seattle scoring thirty five points if you've

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Speaker 1: watched their offense in the last month, And can you

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Speaker 1: imagine Dallas's defense being that lousy against Geno Smith. It

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Speaker 1: was a really good game. First, I want to address

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Speaker 1: the penalties. There were too many flags. I had a

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Speaker 1: head coach in the NFL and a couple executives text

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Speaker 1: me during the game, They're like, this is brutal. I

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Speaker 1: will say this not in defense of the officials, because

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Speaker 1: I just I think I don't understand you should throw

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Speaker 1: a flag when you see a penalty. I think sometimes

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Speaker 1: referees anticipate penalties. Call what you see, not what you anticipate. Now,

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Speaker 1: I will say dan Quinn, who used to coach under

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Speaker 1: Pete Carroll, is very aggressive, and Pete Carroll's defense can

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Speaker 1: be very aggressive. So you had two of the most

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Speaker 1: aggressive defensive guys in the NFL working tonight. And what

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Speaker 1: does that mean. It means you're going to have corners,

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Speaker 1: safeties riding tight ends and wide receivers more than an

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Speaker 1: average Bellichick. Pete Carroll, dan Quinn, Tomlin. These are very

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Speaker 1: aggressive defensive coaches and officials get into situations where they

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Speaker 1: want to set the tone, and so they start calling

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Speaker 1: penalties early to set the tone, and dan Quinn and

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Speaker 1: Pete Carroll don't pull back they keep telling their players

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Speaker 1: to be aggressive. So the officials have already set the

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Speaker 1: tone in the game, and now they're going to keep

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Speaker 1: calling penalties because they want to be consistent. I still

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Speaker 1: thought they missed a couple. There were a couple of

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Speaker 1: tiki tak calls on the Seahawks' corners, But that's my

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Speaker 1: explanation for it. Dan Quinn and Pete Carroll are aggressive referees,

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Speaker 1: try to set a tone, and then they realized, we've

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Speaker 1: set the tone. We got to be consistent. We just

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Speaker 1: called stuff that looked like that earlier. We got to

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Speaker 1: call this. You know, you have to be very careful

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Speaker 1: about confirmation bias. We all have strong feelings about things,

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Speaker 1: but over time there's no one truth with anything. So

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Speaker 1: when Aaron Roger and Mike McCarthy broke up, I think

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Speaker 1: the feeling was Aaron could be prickly and difficult, but

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Speaker 1: McCarthy maybe wasn't up to snuff, and so they bring

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Speaker 1: in Matt Lafleur, and for a couple of years we

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Speaker 1: just think, oh boy, Aaron's finally got his guy. Aaron

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Speaker 1: has a better career playoff record with Mike McCarthy above

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Speaker 1: five hundred than he does Matt Lafleur under five hundred.

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Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy goes to Dallas. We don't love his situational coaching,

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Speaker 1: but he has a winning record with Farv Rogers, Dak

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Speaker 1: and Cooper Rush. And this is the best I have

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Speaker 1: ever seen Dak Prescott. He feels a notch better than

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Speaker 1: he's ever been in his career. Now he's getting better

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Speaker 1: protection from Tyron Smith on the left, who's healthy again.

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Speaker 1: He and Ceedee Lamb now is an elite connection. Ferguson

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Speaker 1: the tight end now is getting more and more productive.

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Speaker 1: They don't have a consistent run game, but Dak was

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Speaker 1: twenty nine of forty one three TVs no picks in

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Speaker 1: three hundred yards. I thought he was excellent tonight. Excellent tonight. Well,

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Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy gets some credit for that, and Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 1: had arguably his best year with Mike McCarthy and Farv's

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Speaker 1: last year he was thirteen and three, and Cooper Rush

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Speaker 1: looked like kind of a quasi starter with Mike McCarthy.

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Speaker 1: So four or five years ago we view Mike McCarthy

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Speaker 1: as one thing, and now we have to look around

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Speaker 1: and go, you know, he Pete Carroll John Harbaugh, Doug Peterson,

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Speaker 1: Sean Payton, all have a Super Bowl, all have a

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Speaker 1: second job in the NFL and are building a winning

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Speaker 1: program at that NFL franchise. So to me, Mike McCarthy

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Speaker 1: is Harbaugh, is Pete is Doug Peterson? Is Sean Payton

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Speaker 1: second time around winning again? You know, and speaking of

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Speaker 1: that about our initial perceptions, So what if Sean Payton

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Speaker 1: gets the Denver job, doesn't new TV for Fox and

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Speaker 1: Nathaniel Hackett never does, or our initial perception is Pete really

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Speaker 1: pulled it over John Snyder, and Pete really pulled one

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Speaker 1: on Denver. They got Geno Smith, We got Geno Smith,

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Speaker 1: they get Russell Wilson. He's washed. But if Sean Payton

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Speaker 1: doesn't do TV and just takes that Denver job, Russell

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Speaker 1: Wilson looks exactly precisely like he looked in Seattle. One

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Speaker 1: hundred plus passer rating, twitchy playmaking moves out of the pocket,

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Speaker 1: makes big throws, very few turnovers. And we don't view

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Speaker 1: that as Pete Carolyn john Snyder getting one over on

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Speaker 1: the Broncos. We say, you give up a better quarterback

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Speaker 1: in a quarterback league, and you have Geno Smith, right.

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Speaker 1: Last five weeks, Peyton and Russell Wilson looked like Seattle

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, who is an a quarterback. So I look

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Speaker 1: at Seattle now, and you got yourself a five hundred

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Speaker 1: team with one big win this year at Detroit. That's

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Speaker 1: a nice win. But now the Rams are playing better.

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Speaker 1: San Francisco's clearly better, Dallas is better, Philadelphia is better,

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Speaker 1: you know, keep your eye on. I still think Detroit

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Speaker 1: is better than Seattle. They certainly are now, and keep

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Speaker 1: your eye in Minnesota and the winner of the NFC South.

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Speaker 1: So what is Seattle today a five hundred team that

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Speaker 1: needs a quarterback to get to the next level? What

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Speaker 1: is Denver today the hottest team in the AFC with

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Speaker 1: a franchise quarterback and a Hall of Fame potential coach

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Speaker 1: and a lot of good players. So McCarthy, Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 1: Gino Smith got to be careful about having really strong

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Speaker 1: opinions and not being willing to look at a story

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Speaker 1: as it evolves and changes, and stories change all the time.

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Speaker 1: I can feel strongly about a political candidate one year,

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Speaker 1: he makes some missteps, so I don't feel the same.

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Speaker 1: I've said this before. You can have a stock in

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Speaker 1: a company, and then all of a sudden the company

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Speaker 1: Apple makes some missteps. I used to own a lot

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Speaker 1: of Starbucks stock, don't owe as much now. Nothing against Starbucks,

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Speaker 1: great company. The course of time I've had it sold

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Speaker 1: it had it sold it based on the momentum the company.

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Speaker 1: You know. So you've got to be willing to look

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Speaker 1: at stuff and be honest and not be stubborn. And

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Speaker 1: you know the Seattle Denver trade. Now, I'd rather have

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson and Gino Smith. Now Seattle may draft Bo

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Speaker 1: Nicks or Michael Pennox and in a year I feel

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Speaker 1: again like Seattle won. But if Denver doesn't hire Nathaniel Hackett,

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Speaker 1: that never looks like a landslide that it did. Briefly,

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Speaker 1: Let's go back to the Cowboys. So the knock in

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys was going into this game. They'd beaten the

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Speaker 1: Giants twice, the Jets, Washington, New England, Carolina beat up

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Speaker 1: Rams team, and the Chargers, well, Rams are now pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Chargers are talented. You know, Seattle's competent, and Washington's always

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Speaker 1: in most games they're a nine and three football team.

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Speaker 1: I don't think there was talented as San Francisco, but

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Speaker 1: I do think they present some things where you can

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Speaker 1: are they can go toe to toe and beat Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: And the number one reason is the Cowboys have seven

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Speaker 1: blowout wins, and over the last decade, nine of ten

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl teams have averaged seven to eight blowout wins.

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Speaker 1: Dallas has seven, Philadelphia has two. So San Francisco and

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Speaker 1: Dallas are the two teams in the NFC that blow

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Speaker 1: people out. They flex because they can. Philadelphia love to

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Speaker 1: blow people out, but they can't. They're back end of

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Speaker 1: their defense is weak. Offensively, Jalen Hurts is terrific, but

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Speaker 1: he has become a very good second half quarterback and

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Speaker 1: can struggle in the first half. They've trailed their last

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Speaker 1: four games at half. So I think if you're a

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Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboy fan, I've always had the kind of the

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Speaker 1: same feeling about the Cowboys for the last twenty five years.

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Speaker 1: I always say, Tony Romo is pretty good, the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: are pretty good, Jason Garrett was pretty good, Mike McCarthy's

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Speaker 1: pretty good, Deck's pretty good, and I'm always right. They

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Speaker 1: always went about nine or ten games, maybe eleven twelve.

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Speaker 1: But I never feel that our Super Bowl team. I

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Speaker 1: do believe eve if Ceedee Lamb stays healthy and Tyron

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Speaker 1: Smith the left tackle, stay healthy because Dak's having a

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Speaker 1: good year and McCarthy's obviously elevating Dak, that if they

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Speaker 1: can stay healthy with Tyron Smith, Ferguson's you know, productive,

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Speaker 1: and Ceedee Lamb, they can they can win shootouts, and

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Speaker 1: they're good enough defensively, there'll be a good team playing

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Speaker 1: with a lead because of the pass rush. I do

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Speaker 1: wish they went and acquired like a Derreck Henry at

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Speaker 1: the trade deadline. I think what they really miss is

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Speaker 1: they have a lead in the game and they just

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Speaker 1: want to eat the clock. They want to power run it,

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Speaker 1: and they're not really that's not what they're built to do.

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Speaker 1: They can score, they can score quickly, they can score

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Speaker 1: a lot, but I don't I feel like they miss

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Speaker 1: sort of that power offense where they could just hand

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Speaker 1: it off to a Derek Henry and just say six

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Speaker 1: minute drive, let's pick up first downs, never drop back

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Speaker 1: to throw so and I think San Francisco can do that,

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia can do that. They're the better teams. Baltimore can

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Speaker 1: do that, the better teams in the league can do it,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think Dallas can. But we have to

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Speaker 1: be honest about Mike McCarthy. We have to be fair

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Speaker 1: and reasonable. And Mike McCarthy has taken Dak Prescott, you know,

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Speaker 1: a couple of years ago pretty ugly injury. Michael Gallup's

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Speaker 1: never been what they thought. Brandon Cooks isn't what everybody

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Speaker 1: promised he would be. They lost Dalton Schultz, they couldn't

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Speaker 1: afford him Amari Cooper, and you look up today. Dallas's

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Speaker 1: good football team. And I've been calling them pretty good

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Speaker 1: for twenty five years. I think they're very good. I

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Speaker 1: think they're a very good football team. And I haven't

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Speaker 1: gone pretty good to very good in Dallas many times.

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Speaker 1: But you can't get too caught up on the fact

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Speaker 1: that their defense gave up a bunch of points tonight. Listen,

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Speaker 1: it's the NFL. It's in college football. DK Metcalf was

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Speaker 1: a huge matchup problem. See ALA's got Lockett, the rookie receiver,

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Speaker 1: Noah Fense, a huge body. DJ Metcalf and I thought

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Speaker 1: their offensive line tonight. You know, i' rated some holes early,

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Speaker 1: especially on the ground. You'll Seattle's got a lot of talent.

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Speaker 1: They've Shane Waldron's a respected offensive coordinator. You're not gonna

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Speaker 1: throw shutouts right that the defensive rules don't allow it.

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Speaker 1: You're not keeping talented teams and veteran coaching staffs to

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Speaker 1: seventeen points every week. It happens. But I think I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna go from pretty good to very good for the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: And I have not done that much, and Mike McCarthy

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Speaker 1: deserves credit, and I've been critical. But dex twenty nine

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Speaker 1: to forty one, three hundred yards three DD's no picks.

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Speaker 1: That's big boy football. How about them Cowboys? November is here.

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Speaker 1: We are in the heart of the football season, hockey

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Speaker 1: guaranteed time for another edition is sharp or square. I

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Speaker 1: did not do Thanksgiving picks. I think I would have

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Speaker 1: been about two two and one. I didn't think Dallas

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Speaker 1: would cover the spread. Missed on the Lions, but had

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Speaker 1: a couple other picks. So let's just start with this week.

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Speaker 1: I've been taking more favorites. I think is the season

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Speaker 1: Ebbs better quarterbacks because there's so many injuries, can overcome

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Speaker 1: banged up rosters. So my first take is Chargers minus

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Speaker 1: five and a half at New England. I do not

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Speaker 1: believe the Patriots want to win. I believe they want

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Speaker 1: the third pick. How do I know this? Because of

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Speaker 1: some of the moves they've made in the secondary with

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Speaker 1: players deactivating them and releasing them. They did not want

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Speaker 1: to beat the Giants. They play, they don't announce the quarterback.

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Speaker 1: I don't love the Chargers, but you have a staff

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Speaker 1: playing for their lives. I'm taking the Chargers minus five

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Speaker 1: and a half. Sharper square.

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Speaker 2: Number one, Colin, if you didn't make any picks, you

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Speaker 2: wouldn't have gone to two and one. You would have

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Speaker 2: gone five. And that's just the way it goes. Number

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Speaker 2: two on this one, the wise guys are against you.

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Speaker 2: The line was at six, it's moved down to five

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Speaker 2: and a half. This is not about the Patriots. You're

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Speaker 2: not finding wise guys who are saying, boy, I'm really

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Speaker 2: excited to bet On Bailey z Appy and I think

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Speaker 2: this team is really primed to do something great. It's

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Speaker 2: fading the Chargers. You say this team is this coaching

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Speaker 2: staff is fighting for its lives. I think it's already over.

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Speaker 2: I think the wise guys think it's over. It's not

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Speaker 2: a team that's in playoff contention. It's not a team

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Speaker 2: that's going to make the playoffs. It's a team with

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Speaker 2: an incredible amount of talent that continues to not be

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Speaker 2: able to execute. There's no reason for this team to

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Speaker 2: be a six point now five and a half point

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Speaker 2: favorite on the road. It's not good enough defensively. They

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Speaker 2: haven't proven to be good enough offensively in terms of executing.

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Speaker 2: Keenan Allen has there's ninety seven receptions. He's second in

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Speaker 2: the league in receiving yardage. It's the quietest, most irrelevant

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Speaker 2: combination of great stats you're gonna see from a wide

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Speaker 2: receiver on a team that doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best number. I thought the bet of

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Speaker 1: the week was the Niners plus points at the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: but extra time to prepare for San Francisco, healthy, little

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Speaker 1: revenge edge, and the number of snaps Philadelphia's defense, not

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Speaker 1: very good to begin with, was on the field. I'm

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Speaker 1: still going to take the Niners. I think they could

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Speaker 1: win by seven to ten. By the way, super Bowl

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Speaker 1: champs dating back seven years on average have eight blowout wins.

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia has two. They we think they're a Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: team because they're very good in these one possession games.

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Speaker 1: So was Minnesota last year, the Seahawks two three years ago,

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys three years ago. Those teams get eliminated fast

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs. San Francisco is the better team. They

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Speaker 1: win here by seven points. Sharper square, totally sharp. The

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Speaker 1: wise guys were on this look Sunday night. It was

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Speaker 1: moving from two and a half before the Bills game

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Speaker 1: was over. It was down to San Francisco plus two

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Speaker 1: and a half San Francisco plus one before the game

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Speaker 1: was over. Literally, I was trying to make a bet

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Speaker 1: on Sunday night on the Niners at plus one, and

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Speaker 1: before I could click done, the line moved from plus

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Speaker 1: one to minus one Niners, and then it's gone up

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Speaker 1: to two and a half. Every time it goes up

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Speaker 1: to three, the wise guys take the Eagles of plus three.

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Speaker 1: Then the other wise guys take the Niners at minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half.

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Speaker 2: You said something really important. The Niners are blowing teams

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Speaker 2: out When Deebo, Samuel and Trent Williams are playing. This

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Speaker 2: team is eight to zero. They're winning by an average

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Speaker 2: of twenty one points. The team has not played in

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Speaker 2: ten days. They're as healthy as they've ever been. The Eagles,

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Speaker 2: as you noted, had a lot of snaps. They played

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Speaker 2: ninety five snaps in a really bloody war against the

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Speaker 2: Bills in a rainy, rainy Sunday game. They have not

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Speaker 2: had as much time to get healthy. And I was

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Speaker 2: listening to other podcasts like NFL Players, they talk on

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Speaker 2: these on these podcasts, they made it one of those.

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Speaker 2: Chris Long on his podcast made a really good point.

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Speaker 2: Every hour counts when you are trying to recuper rate

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Speaker 2: for the next week. This is not a good spot

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Speaker 2: for the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: This is why the wise guys have been all over there,

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Speaker 1: not getting the mess number at all. I like the

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Speaker 1: Lions minus four, but I'll take them minus four and

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Speaker 1: a half. I think Dennis Allen is in the race

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Speaker 1: for the worst coach in the league. I think they

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Speaker 1: massively underachieve Derek Carr. You know, I always saw him

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Speaker 1: as a life preserver of the Raiders. Maybe he's just

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00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 1: checked down. Charlie and not very good. Lions have been

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Speaker 1: beaten now not feeling good about themselves. I don't think

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Speaker 1: the Saints can beat them at their weakness. I think

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Speaker 1: Detroit humiliated extra time to prepare bounces back. I'll take

332
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Speaker 1: him to cover. Not the best number. Sharper square.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's there's not a consensus on this game. The

334
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,920
Speaker 2: wise guys lean Saints. It's why the number has sort

335
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Speaker 2: of stayed where it is because the majority of the action,

336
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Speaker 2: the public action, is all coming in on the Lions,

337
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,040
Speaker 2: and we saw it like and it's been at four

338
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 2: basically since Monday. And when there's that much money coming

339
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 2: in on one side and the line really doesn't move,

340
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,719
Speaker 2: it's because the wise guys are sort of anchoring it

341
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 2: in place, right, And so you know that the wise

342
00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:35,439
Speaker 2: guys have been taken the Saints here. It's not like

343
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Speaker 2: it's going to be their biggest bet of the week.

344
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,679
Speaker 2: There are other games that the wise guys love a

345
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:43,399
Speaker 2: lot more, but they like the number here not because

346
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 2: of what the Saints can do or necessarily what the

347
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 2: Lions can't do. The last couple of weeks, Jared Goff

348
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,679
Speaker 2: hasn't played as well right, and Dan Campbell, who's a

349
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,639
Speaker 2: brilliant football coach, also has an incredibly good offensive line

350
00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 2: and he's got two really good running backs, and playing

351
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 2: against the Saints, he has an opportunity to control the

352
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 2: clock and let those guys run. It shortens the game,

353
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Speaker 2: but it also means potentially less scoring, so it just

354
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:10,199
Speaker 2: might not be as big of a margin, which is

355
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:11,119
Speaker 2: why the wise guys like that.

356
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Speaker 1: The game I'm betting solely because of the number. I

357
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 1: think the Texans probably win, but I would take Denver

358
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,240
Speaker 1: plus three and a half. I worry about the regression

359
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 1: of the turnovers, which have gone all Denver's way in

360
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 1: the last month, but they've also created many of those.

361
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,880
Speaker 1: The thing about Denver is their defense now is a story,

362
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,880
Speaker 1: and their run game they don't make mistakes. They keep

363
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 1: it very much in the fairway. Houston's still young. CJ.

364
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 1: Stroud is still young. He will face pressure. I think

365
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 1: it's a field goal game. But the hook, I'd take

366
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 1: Denver plus three and a half. You know, at this

367
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 1: point in the year, you take the hook if you

368
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,360
Speaker 1: feel strongly about a team. Denver's won five straight. It's

369
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,440
Speaker 1: not luck. They're creating a lot of their own opportunities.

370
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:54,440
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson now making more plays, running more. Run game

371
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 1: is very solid, and both can also be active in

372
00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 1: the screen game. I'll take Denver in the point Sharper Square.

373
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:03,440
Speaker 2: The coaches you want to bet on the past twenty

374
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:09,919
Speaker 2: years Colin Mike Vrabel, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Sean Payton,

375
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 2: and before the past couple of years, Bill Belichick. Those

376
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 2: guys cash tickets. They are profitable coaches. By the way,

377
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 2: Dennis Allen, I meant to mention this, one hundred and

378
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 2: forty three coaches in the past twenty years, he's one

379
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 2: hundred and forty second as the least profitable coach. So

380
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 2: one more reason why you might be right to bet

381
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 2: the Lions. But I think that the hook, what you're

382
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 2: talking about, getting the hook is the right side here. Wise,

383
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 2: guys have been a little bit all over this one,

384
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,120
Speaker 2: like getting bet at hard when it was at two

385
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,400
Speaker 2: and a half for the Texans, it's gotten a three

386
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 2: and a half. They've come back a little bit on

387
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 2: the Broncos. I think they are just playing the number.

388
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 2: If it's below three, they're playing the Texans. If it's

389
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:50,440
Speaker 2: above three, they're playing the Broncos.

390
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 1: I would take Cardinals plus five and a half at

391
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I think Kyler Murray is so much better

392
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 1: than Kenny Pickett, it's hard to imagine. Also, they were humiliated,

393
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,160
Speaker 1: the Rams pushed them around. Some of that was injury related.

394
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh probably wins. That offense is not worthy of five

395
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: and a half points. I'm gonna take the Cards. Sharper square.

396
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 2: I just mentioned Mike Tomlin one of the most profitable

397
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 2: coaches the past twenty years. That's because he wins so

398
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 2: often when he is an underdog, not just covering the spread,

399
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 2: but winning outright. He is no good as a favorite

400
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 2: of more than three, thirty seven percent against the spread

401
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 2: in his career as a favorite of more than three.

402
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 2: And let's not be fooled by the fact they gained

403
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 2: four hundred yards of offense the first game after Matt

404
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 2: Canada leaves. Kenny Pickett is not an accurate passer and

405
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 2: they got the right team in the right spot with

406
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 2: a backup quarterback the Cardinals. While they got pushed around

407
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 2: by the Rams, they did keep it close against the Texans.

408
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: They covered against the Texans that was a five point game.

409
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 2: The scary thing here and this was a lot of

410
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 2: conversations I had with wise guys this week. Kyler Murray

411
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 2: is so good scrambling. Since he's back, He's averaged nine

412
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 2: point four yards per scramble. He's a first down every

413
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 2: time he leaves the pocket. The one thing the Steelers

414
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 2: will want to do is rush the passer. That is

415
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 2: what they are best at as a defensive unit. Kyler

416
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: Murray is able to combat that, and it leaves the

417
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 2: back door for this team why to open the entire game,

418
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 2: because the Steelers won't be able to run away with

419
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 2: it in terms of scoring. So that's why the wise

420
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 2: guys are backing you and back.

421
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 1: In the Packers or the side I would imagine at

422
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 1: plus five and a half and Mahomes is a bad

423
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 1: cover if it's over like four or five. I do

424
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 1: think Kansas City found a little bit of their way

425
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: in the second half. I think Rashi Rice is starting

426
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: to look like a one. Jordan Love is overvalued. The

427
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:48,439
Speaker 1: Chargers and the Lions secondaries are really really bad, and

428
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,199
Speaker 1: Kansas City's isn't. I'm going to bet the Chiefs. I

429
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 1: know it's square.

430
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 2: Comment on it, Well, it's square, just this, but it's interesting.

431
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 2: It's interesting because this is a game the wise guys

432
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 2: have sort of planted a flag and the sand on

433
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 2: and they've decided that Jordan Love since week nine is

434
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 2: a top five quarterback. And there are a lot of stats,

435
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 2: a lot of the advanced metrics you can look at

436
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 2: EPA things like that. They will tell you that Jordan

437
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 2: Love has been incredibly good the past five weeks and

438
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 2: You can also look at what the Chiefs have done

439
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 2: and take last week against the Raiders with a grain

440
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,159
Speaker 2: of salt. They have been terrible in the second half.

441
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 2: Second half unders with the Chiefs this year eleven and zero.

442
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 2: They are not a team scoring in the second half.

443
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:38,160
Speaker 2: So what the wise guys are banking on is an

444
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 2: improving quarterback against a team that has not been scoring

445
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,159
Speaker 2: in the second half, and the opportunity to keep the

446
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 2: game close when they are at home as a big underdog,

447
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 2: and especially these primetime games, they have been trending towards

448
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 2: the under and so when you have a game that

449
00:24:56,320 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 2: is going to be low scoring, the bigger under JG

450
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 2: tends to cover.

451
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 1: All right, we do something. I want you to talk

452
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 1: me into a game. Rams look really good, so they'll,

453
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 1: I imagine, pull back against Cleveland. So the Browns plus

454
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: four and a half. Now it's three and a half

455
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: all odds provided by DraftKings. My guess is the Sharps

456
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: like Cleveland, but now Joe Flacco is a viable starter

457
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: that is not good. Their offensive lines beat up, Miles

458
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 1: Garrett will play. I imagine the Browns are the side.

459
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: Tell me how the wise guys think, because I got

460
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: to tell you the Rams have solved their O line issues.

461
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: They're healthy now, Kymeron Williams. It's a real run game.

462
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 1: I think Raheem Morris is one of the most underrated

463
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 1: coordinators in the league. That defense is kids. They are

464
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: playing really sound football. I could see the Rams winning again.

465
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: Tell me why the wise guys probably like the points here.

466
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 2: Well, they do like the points here, and they like

467
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: Cleveland and the points and part of it is, Look,

468
00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 2: the Rams offensive line running game will be good no

469
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 2: matter who the quarterback is, and that is something that

470
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 2: will always keep you in the game. And Miles Garrett, look,

471
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 2: there was no structural damage. He came out right away

472
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 2: and said he's going to be playing. He'll take whatever

473
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,479
Speaker 2: painkiller he needs to take. I don't worry about Miles Garrett.

474
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:20,120
Speaker 2: Miles Garrett with one arm is still a tremendous playmaker.

475
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 2: And don't forget he's got help right Like, he's got

476
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 2: help on the other side of the edge rushing line,

477
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 2: he's got help in the defensive backfield. There's playmakers at

478
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 2: every level for that team. And you know, Jim Schwartz

479
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 2: is just going to call these insane aggressive schemes against

480
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford. And you say the offensive line is improving.

481
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 2: I say the offensive line is still struggling. And that

482
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 2: is a real detriment for the Rams. This is not

483
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. The Cardinals are one of the worst defenses

484
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 2: in the league. They can't stop the run. It made

485
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 2: everything so much easier for Matthew Stafford and the Rams,

486
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 2: and Kyron Williams coming back had the exact game that

487
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,880
Speaker 2: he expected, that everyone expected him to have. It's why

488
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 2: the Wise guys were a little chalky last week, and

489
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 2: they liked the Rams. They kept betting the Rams up.

490
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 2: So that's why. Also why the Wise guys are on Cleveland.

491
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: So give me a couple of games I missed, you like,

492
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:16,120
Speaker 1: try to talk me into something.

493
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the New York Jets plus two and

494
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:21,439
Speaker 2: a half against Funny.

495
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 1: I just mentioned this off the air to j Mac yesterday.

496
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: I thought it's interesting. I Atlanta. You know, people want

497
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 1: to have every coach fired. But when I watch Atlanta,

498
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: I don't look at a poorly coach team. When I

499
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 1: look at the Saints or the Chargers, I look at

500
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: a poorly coach team. I think Arthur Smith is fine.

501
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: He just doesn't have a quarterback, So so tell me

502
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: the side.

503
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, well it's the Jets. And there's a couple of

504
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 2: different factors here. Number one, you're talking about a team.

505
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 1: Let's talk.

506
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 2: Let's talk from a trend perspective, right, Teams that have

507
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 2: been blown out the previous week against teams that haven't

508
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 2: been blown out the previous week, say twenty points or

509
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 2: more in the blowout, they covered a sixty percent clip

510
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: the past five years. So who are we talking about

511
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:14,120
Speaker 2: this week. We're talking about Cleveland, We're talking about Washington,

512
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 2: We're talking about the New York Jets, right, So that's

513
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 2: number one. Number two, let's look on the field, this

514
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 2: Jets defense. The past few weeks, who have they played.

515
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 2: They've gone up against Tua, They've gone up against Justin Herbert,

516
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:33,639
Speaker 2: They've played really good quarterbacks. That is hard to do

517
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 2: every single week. They find relief this week against Desmond Ridder.

518
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 2: He is not an NFL quarterback. As soon as this

519
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 2: season is over, you are not going to hear from

520
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 2: Desmond Ridder anymore. And I agree with you, Arthur Smith.

521
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: I think he's a great coach. I love watching his offenses.

522
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 2: I think from a running schemes as interesting and sophisticated

523
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 2: as it gets in the NFL, but they don't really

524
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 2: have the weapons. That dest member can't get the ball

525
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 2: to his weapons, and so you've got an incredible defense

526
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 2: at every level going against a really bad quarterback outside

527
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 2: on the road in what could be the last chance

528
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 2: for the Jets to prove defensively how much pride they have.

529
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 2: And who knows, maybe they got a little bit of

530
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 2: a kick from Aaron Rodgers coming back to practice this week,

531
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 2: but emotionally, this is the spot where you want to.

532
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: Take the Jets. Give me one more Washington.

533
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 2: Well, Washington's an interesting one, right, I'm looking at my

534
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 2: notes here. Washington is the other one. Like we hit Arizona,

535
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 2: we hit the Niners, we hit Green Bay. We just

536
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: hit the Jets. There are two other games Tennessee plus

537
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 2: one just because I like Vrabel as an underdog, and

538
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 2: I also think that Tennessee can run the ball against

539
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 2: a Colts defense that Grover Stewart, who was in the

540
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: first six weeks and has been out for the past

541
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 2: month with the suspension. When he was in, that was

542
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: a very good rush defense. When he is out, that

543
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 2: rush defense is near the bottom of the league, and

544
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 2: so I think there is an opportunity for Vrabel to

545
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 2: keep the ball out of will Levis's hands. So I

546
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 2: like Rabel as a dog at home, almost automatically. Anyways,

547
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 2: what are you gonna do with Washington?

548
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 1: Right?

549
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 2: Sam Howell is having a brilliant year, and this Miami

550
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 2: Dolphins team has struggled to cover big numbers on the road.

551
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 2: They are great at home, but they struggle to cover

552
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 2: big numbers on the road. So you're gonna be on

553
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 2: the road. It's not supposed to be great. Weather, could

554
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 2: be windy, could be rainy. I think Eric b Enemy

555
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 2: has been having an incredible season as an offensive coordinator.

556
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 2: I think he's probably the leading candidate to be that

557
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 2: team's head coach next year when Ron Rivera is gone.

558
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 2: And so you're gonna have a chance to cover a

559
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 2: big number because Washington's never gonna be out of it.

560
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 2: The challenge is their defense is terrible, right, and so

561
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 2: you know that every time you get the ball, you're

562
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: gonna have to score a touchdown if you want to

563
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 2: be in this game. The good news is you're down

564
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 2: by sixteen points late in the game, it's over. But

565
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 2: there's two minutes left. You got the ball on your

566
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 2: twenty five yard line. The Dolphins have just scored. Sam

567
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: Howell goes down the field. You're coming through the back door.

568
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 2: You lose by nine. You cover the number.

569
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 1: Chad Milman, CEO Action Network. All al is provided by

570
00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 1: Draft Kings. Good to see anybody, Good to see you too.

571
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: Man the volume