1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 3 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 4 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:19,920 Speaker 2: Rouno with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Bloomberg's Balance of Power. 7 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 3: You made it to Little Friday. I'm Joe Matthew and Washington, 8 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,239 Speaker 3: where people are getting scarce around here. Just about two 9 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 3: hours from now. That'll be it for the House. The 10 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 3: Senate's already gone. Hey, it's President's Day recess at least 11 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 3: for some. And we'll talk more about the dysfunction on 12 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 3: Capitol Hill a little bit later on in the program. 13 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 3: Here as we begin with Donald Trump's legal challenges and 14 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 3: a remarkable headline. We've been talking about it for months 15 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 3: and months. We expected it. It's not a surprise. Some 16 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 3: folks thought it wouldn't be news, but it feels different 17 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 3: when it actually happens. We've got a date to circle 18 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:06,279 Speaker 3: on the calendar, March twenty fifth, the first criminal trial 19 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 3: of a former US president. We're joined this, of course, 20 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 3: by the way, is Alvin Bragg's case, Stormy Daniel's hush money. 21 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 3: We've been through this before, and it will begin before 22 00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 3: and likely conclude. 23 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,199 Speaker 4: Before or long before the presidential election. 24 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 3: The question becomes what happens to Jack Smith's case, the 25 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 3: special counsel, and so on. But we want to stick 26 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 3: with this right now and bring in June Law, the 27 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 3: host of Bloomberg Law, who's with us from world headquarters 28 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 3: in New York. 29 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 5: June. 30 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 4: It's great to see you. 31 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 3: It's so easy to drive by this headline because it's 32 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 3: not a surprise, but we have to stop down and 33 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 3: bring some perspective on how significant this actually is. 34 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 6: It's not a surprise, and yet it is a surprise 35 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 6: because the judge in the case at the hearing this 36 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 6: morning was really tough. I think that judges are starting 37 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 6: to learn now that they have to keep Trump's lawyers 38 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 6: in check. Trump's lawyers brought out every possible argument you 39 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 6: could think of being and I think we're gonna have 40 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 6: to start making diagrams off to make a big diagram 41 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 6: of which case is going and which case intersex because 42 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 6: it's so confusing. But they said that there are forty 43 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 6: two primaries and caucuses and Trump has to help prepare 44 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 6: for trial, and that is an unconstitutional violation, and I'm 45 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 6: looking at what constitutional violation we're in the constitution, it 46 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:24,799 Speaker 6: says that a president can be on trial in four 47 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 6: criminal cases and still has the right to campaign, So 48 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 6: we know that people have campaigned from prison, So that's 49 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,080 Speaker 6: that was a bad argument. But they also brought out 50 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 6: all kinds of things, including that they've been They say 51 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 6: they've been preparing for Jack Smith's trial, which is the 52 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 6: DC federal election trial, which was supposed to go March fifth, 53 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 6: but has been put off because they make Trump has 54 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 6: been a claim of absolute presidential muni. So they said, 55 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 6: your honor, we're busy preparing for that case. And he said, basically, 56 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 6: too bad. I told you March twenty fifth. It's a 57 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 6: date certain you proceeded at your own peril in representing 58 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 6: him in two cases. So it's on. 59 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:07,399 Speaker 4: So that's where we are. It's on, says June Ross. 60 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 3: So we've been told by a number of legal experts, 61 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 3: Nick Ackerman most recently that he expects this to be 62 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 3: a roughly three week trial that would allow a lot 63 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 3: of room June for the Special Council Jack Smith to 64 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,359 Speaker 3: have his case here in Washington, and he did respond 65 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 3: to the Supreme Court yesterday. 66 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 4: He didn't wait more than two days to. 67 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 3: Get back to the High Court on this issue of 68 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 3: presidential immunity. When do we expect to hear from the 69 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 3: Supreme Court and what could happen then? 70 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 6: First, I just want to say that the judge in 71 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 6: the hush money case said he expected the trial to 72 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 6: be six weeks long just to get that out there. 73 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 4: So yeah, we could hear that. That still leaves half 74 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 4: a year. 75 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 6: There is a lot of time if you look at 76 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 6: the calendar, there is actually time here. If now the 77 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 6: Supreme Court, we could hear from them at any moment, 78 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 6: and they have to. It has to be five justices. 79 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 6: So in other words, Trump is asking for a stay 80 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 6: and what that will do would be to delay even 81 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 6: more so it would delay, delay again, and so the 82 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 6: Springbrook could rule at any time. Jack Smith's you know, 83 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:09,360 Speaker 6: his arguments actually I. 84 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: Thought were very good. 85 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 6: He still didn't bring out the argument that we all 86 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 6: know is back there and that every judge knows, which 87 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 6: is if Donald Trump gets elected, then this case will 88 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:21,679 Speaker 6: go away. So but he said it's in the interest 89 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 6: of justice. I thought the most important thing he said was, 90 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 6: in order to get this kind of a stay, you 91 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,239 Speaker 6: have to prove that there's a likelihood that you'll succeed 92 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 6: on the merits. And you know, everyone says that Trump's 93 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 6: claims of presidential immunity the way he's framed them are 94 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 6: just not viable. So he said he's not going to 95 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 6: win on that, and I think that's an important point. 96 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 6: The only question being are there justices who want to 97 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,359 Speaker 6: address this issue? And if so, he said, okay, but 98 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 6: then let's have oral arguments next month, so we'll see 99 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 6: whether it's hard to tell right now whether the justices 100 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 6: will take it or not. But from what you know 101 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,720 Speaker 6: from what's gone below, the fact that you have this 102 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 6: really very well written and opinion that covered all the 103 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 6: ground another thing Trump is done in that case, though 104 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 6: he's also asking for the justices to put it on 105 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 6: Hoole while he appeals to the full d C Circuit. 106 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 6: And you know that's sort of a foolish. It's a 107 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 6: thing that he'll do if he gets the chance, but 108 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 6: there's no way the DC Circuit is going to overrule 109 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 6: these three judges. 110 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 3: There you have it, June, thank you for helping us 111 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 3: make sense of it. It'll be a great evening to 112 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 3: listen to Bloomberg Law with Junie Asso. We appreciate it 113 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 3: as always. I haven't even mentioned Atlanta. We've had wal 114 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 3: to wall coverage on cable news of what's happening down there, 115 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 3: because it's not too It's three cases that are in 116 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 3: the mix today, Donald Trump and co defendants seeking to 117 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 3: disqualify Fannie Willis. That's the DA in Fulton County from 118 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 3: running her case on news of her affair with one 119 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 3: of the prosecutors. So this gets ever more complicated the 120 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 3: more we talk about it. But getting back to where 121 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 3: we began, the Alvin braggtrials, Stormy Annuals, Michael Cohen, They're 122 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 3: all going to be there in court in New York 123 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 3: starting in this case March twenty fifth, the beginning of 124 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 3: the process will be there to bring that for you. 125 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 3: Our other top story that we're following today is a 126 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 3: scary one with the headline on the terminal Russia Mull's 127 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 3: nuclear weapons in space. US Intelligence finds US goes back 128 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,239 Speaker 3: to Mike Turner's tweet from yesterday that we talked about 129 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 3: talking about warning every one of this national security problem 130 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 3: that he was urging the Biden administration to declassify so 131 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 3: they could bring this forth. Apparently it does involve Russia 132 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 3: discussing the possibility of basing a nuclear weapon in space. 133 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 3: And it's another dangerous world conversation that we have with 134 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 3: Michael Allen, Managing Director partner at Beacon Global Strategies. 135 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 4: This is getting to. 136 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 3: Be a habit having you in here to talk about 137 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 3: scary stuff. But your experience brings you to this conversation, Michael, 138 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 3: and it's great to have you here. 139 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 4: Thank you for coming back. 140 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 3: This is interesting because Jake Sullivan told the briefing room yesterday, Yeah, 141 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,919 Speaker 3: I actually already skeed to classified briefing with the Gang 142 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 3: of Eight on this. Well he didn't say it was 143 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 3: really on this, but we knew what he was talking about. 144 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 3: What compelled the Intelligence Share to scare everybody with that 145 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 3: sweet yesterday. 146 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:14,239 Speaker 7: You know, this is a sort of a parlor game already, 147 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 7: everyone trying to figure out what he meant to do. 148 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 7: I think he had good intentions at heart. I know 149 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 7: that he cares a lot about nuclear issues, and I 150 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 7: think he was just trying to get the word out 151 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 7: and to remind his House Republican colleagues and others in 152 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 7: the Republican Party that Russia is a true threat, that 153 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 7: Russia is always working against our interests, and that they're 154 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 7: profoundly destabilizing and they're taking another step change to weaponized space. 155 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 3: So we understand that the administration or the Pentagon has 156 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 3: known about this about a year. Congress has been briefed 157 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 3: what about a week ago on this specific matter. We've 158 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 3: also been talking about hypersonic weapons that Russia has reportedly 159 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 3: used now in Ukraine for the first time. Are we 160 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 3: falling behind Russia on missile technology? 161 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 7: I think we're definitely behind on hypersonics. I think the 162 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 7: United States has this has been a public record that 163 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 7: China's way out ahead of us, and even is Russia. 164 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 7: The interesting thing about the Russians using their hypersonics, however, 165 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 7: in Ukraine, is that remember there was this stunning news 166 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 7: last year that the Ukrainians repurposed our patriot missile batteries 167 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 7: and actually shot down the Kinzol, which is a Russian 168 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 7: hypersonics So I'm sure they're embarrassed about that. I don't 169 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 7: doubt that they're trying to use every munition and missile 170 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 7: that they can against the Ukrainians. 171 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 3: Okay, in this case, though, if the hypersonics are being 172 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 3: used in Ukraine, our patriot defense systems are useless against them. 173 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 3: Russia doesn't have a lot of money or resources at 174 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:51,199 Speaker 3: the moment. Do they have many of these or is 175 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 3: this a great threat or not? 176 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 7: I think it is a great threat. I think it's 177 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 7: something that our missile defenses would have a very hard 178 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:02,560 Speaker 7: time stopping because of the nature of the projectile's path 179 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,959 Speaker 7: when you're talking about hypersonics. So it's another reason why 180 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 7: you know, we need to get on budget here in 181 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 7: the United States. Congress actually passed the defense budget and 182 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 7: start to move things along very quickly so that we 183 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 7: can catch up on hypersonics and help Ukraine. 184 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 3: That's a whole other conversation right now, because we're actually 185 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 3: potentially shutting down the government starting. 186 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:24,239 Speaker 4: Three weeks from today. 187 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 3: As a matter of fact, we can't seem to figure 188 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 3: out how to fund our allies in Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. 189 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 3: I don't need to give you the background and all 190 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 3: of that. There are new questions this week about NATO though, 191 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:40,200 Speaker 3: in a potential second Trump administration, as he's floated this 192 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 3: idea now of a two tiered NATO. 193 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 4: I'm sure you heard about this. 194 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 3: Article five would only apply to those who meet their 195 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 3: spending goals as part of the alliance. 196 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 4: Is that the end of NATO in concept as we 197 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 4: know it. 198 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 7: I think it would be. Look, I know it's superficially attractive. 199 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:00,400 Speaker 7: Of course, we want everyone to pay their bills and 200 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 7: we should stay on top of them. In fact, more 201 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 7: of them since the Russian invasion of Ukraine have been 202 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 7: paying up, have been exceeding two percent of their gross 203 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 7: domestic product on military expenditures. But I think to create 204 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 7: a two tiered system is exactly what Vladimir Putin wants. 205 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 7: He wants dissension within NATA. We don't need questions about 206 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 7: what countries NATO would defend and which ones they wouldn't. 207 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,239 Speaker 7: That is the beginning of the end of the alliance, 208 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 7: and I don't think we should go this way. 209 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 3: Well, it makes you question whether this is a transactional alliance, 210 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 3: a transactional relationship, or something more principled, as the president 211 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 3: would suggest. Now Joe Biden has made that point recently. 212 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 7: Yeah, I believe that the president, well President Trump is 213 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 7: transactional and is always or frequently trying to get a 214 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 7: better deal. And so if you talk to people I 215 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 7: think who were around the President Trump and when he 216 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 7: was president will remind you that I don't think he's 217 00:10:57,800 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 7: really trying to get out of NATO where I don't 218 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 7: really think he's trying to vitiate some other treaty with 219 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,760 Speaker 7: our Asian allies. He's trying to get them to pay 220 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 7: more and stand up and again, to a degree, I 221 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 7: think that's a good idea. I'm even more comfortable with 222 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 7: them being more aggressive about it, but not to the 223 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 7: point where we're trying to kick out certain members who 224 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 7: can't make the two percent GDP for whatever reason. 225 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 3: The philosophy becomes dangerous or carries new risk at a 226 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 3: certain point, it would seem yes. And so there's a 227 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 3: larger question here about what Mike Turner might have been 228 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 3: up to by releasing this, by bringing this information to 229 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:38,560 Speaker 3: make it public. Was it to underscore the need for 230 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,960 Speaker 3: funding in Ukraine? Was it to underscore the threat that 231 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin poses? 232 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:44,559 Speaker 4: Was there more to it? 233 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 7: I think so. I know that he is a strong 234 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 7: supporter of Ukraine. He is a Russia skeptic. There was 235 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 7: a famous clip of him challenging Tucker Carlson on Fox 236 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 7: News about two or three years ago, and so he, 237 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,319 Speaker 7: I believe, wants to remind everyone. Just to Stucker, Carlson 238 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 7: and others are visiting Moscow, and just as other members 239 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 7: of the House are saying we don't want to pass 240 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 7: the Ukraine supplemental I think it's the job of some 241 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,439 Speaker 7: of the members who've been around and are chairman of 242 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 7: the National Security committees to stand up and say, listen, 243 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 7: they're not our friends. They're spying on us, they're messing 244 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,439 Speaker 7: with our elections, and of course they're militarizing space because 245 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 7: they want to take out all of our satellites in 246 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 7: a time of war. 247 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 3: That's what this is, right, This would be a weapon 248 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:32,679 Speaker 3: that could neutralize or destroy our satellites in orbit. This 249 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 3: is something that they are apparently I guess, prepared to use, 250 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 3: if not close to being ready to use. Here, the 251 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 3: US is taking this matter seriously. I think it was 252 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 3: Congressman Jim Hines who told one of the tip sheets 253 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 3: this morning, it's not time to start buying gold yet, right. 254 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 4: Is that true? 255 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 2: Yeah? 256 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 7: I think it is true. I don't think they've launched 257 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 7: They definitely have not launched a nuclear weapon into space. 258 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 7: I think we're right to be worried about it. It's 259 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 7: something else that goes on to the agenda. And using 260 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 7: anti satellite capabilities isn't new. You may remember at different 261 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 7: times Russia and the United States have used ballistic missiles. 262 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 7: But where this is a step change in addition to 263 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 7: just having a nuclear weapon in space, which is frightening enough, 264 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:17,719 Speaker 7: it's that it would be a more efficient way to 265 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,960 Speaker 7: knock out numerous satellites, because what we're doing is hardening 266 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 7: our satellites. We're trying to make them more redundant by 267 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 7: having many, many more smaller satellites to be able to 268 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 7: run GPS and navigation and the rest. And so this 269 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 7: would be a more efficient way using radiation in space 270 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 7: to knock out hundreds of them. 271 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 4: This is real Star wars. 272 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 7: It's still serious. It is serious business, incle that's right. 273 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:42,959 Speaker 4: It's a game changer though, right, it's a new front. 274 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 7: I think it's I think the militarization of space is 275 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 7: a new front and is all the arms control treaties 276 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 7: with Russia and the former Soviet Union has sort of 277 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 7: fallen by the wayside through the years. It's a new 278 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:54,079 Speaker 7: wild wild West. 279 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 3: So when is it time to start stepping up the 280 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 3: Space Force briefings. 281 00:13:57,880 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 4: I'm not kidding. 282 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 3: You say Space force and people start laughing. I don't 283 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 3: know what it is about this. There is something just 284 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,400 Speaker 3: inherently humorous about the way it was rolled out. But 285 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 3: this is a real agency task to handle this very issue. 286 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 7: We have so many issues. This is why we need 287 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 7: to increase defense spending. This is why we need to 288 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,719 Speaker 7: pass the supplemental This is why we need to get 289 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 7: the defense budget passed on time and get off of 290 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 7: continuing resolutions. We can't start new programs, we can't ramp up, 291 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 7: we can't get the defense industrial base ramped up to 292 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 7: where it needs to be. So I definitely think the 293 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 7: Republicans and Democrats in Congress who are national security minded 294 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 7: and Biden as well, need to get out there and 295 00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 7: stand together on certain core national security issues. And we 296 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 7: haven't even talked about Charita yet. 297 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 4: I haven't mentioned a lot of things. 298 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I keep hearing from the Freedom Caucus. Don't 299 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 3: fear the shutdown. We're out of time. 300 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 4: Do you think we're shutting down in three weeks or 301 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 4: is there another seat? 302 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 7: I think this time there will be a little bit 303 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 7: of a there will be a little bit of a shutdown. 304 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 3: You do. 305 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 4: I think this is nobody's talking about it. 306 00:14:54,040 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 7: I think the speaker has really tried hard so far 307 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 7: and he might be out of lock. 308 00:14:58,240 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 4: Wow. 309 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:02,320 Speaker 3: Great conversation as always with Michael Allen Beacon Global Strategies. 310 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 3: Thanks for coming to see us. Thank you in the 311 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 3: Washington bureau at Bloomberg. I'm Joe Matthew in the Nation's 312 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 3: Capital and glad you're along here. On the radio, on 313 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 3: the satellite and on YouTube. 314 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 315 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroud 316 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 2: Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 317 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 318 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven. 319 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 3: Thirty three plates spinning in the air today for Donald 320 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 3: Trump's legal team. 321 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 8: Absolutely, and of course we're spinning all the plates as 322 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 8: well as a result, and Charlie Pellett's always spinning a 323 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 8: lot of plates because there's a lot of different asset 324 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 8: classes in financial markets to look at. 325 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: Charlie, I've got you covered. 326 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 5: Here's what's going on. Lots of earnings coming up after 327 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 5: the close of trading, today among those names we'll be 328 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 5: hearing from Applied Materials, Dropbox, Coinbase, door Dash right now, though, 329 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 5: equities trading mixed, and of course big economic data tomorrow morning. 330 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 5: Here's where we stand, right to the numbers. S and 331 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 5: P hire by ten up now by two tenths of 332 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 5: one percent, Dow Jones Industrial Average up one hundred and 333 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 5: sixty eight, that is again now of four tenths of 334 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 5: one percent. Nestak the composite index now back in the 335 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 5: red law by twenty a drop there of one tenth 336 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 5: of one percent. The big story, perhaps so the Russell 337 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 5: two thousand surging another one point three percent today, Tenure 338 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 5: yield four point two to three percent. We've got the 339 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 5: two year four point five seven percent spot. Gold today 340 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 5: is trading back above two thousand. We have got gold 341 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 5: right now two thousand and four, the ounce up six 342 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 5: tents of one percent, and West Texas Intermedia crewed up 343 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 5: one point nine percent, seventy eight thirteen a barrel. So 344 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 5: the Dow the SMP, they're both higher. We've got Nezstak 345 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 5: in the red and again those earnings after the close 346 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 5: of trading, Apply Materials, Dropbox, Coinbase, and door Dash there 347 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 5: they are spinning plate. So I'm Charlie Pelock back we 348 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 5: go to balance of power, Joe Matthew and Kaylee Lyones. 349 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 8: All right, Charlie, thank you very much. As always, from 350 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 8: financial markets to the very nuanced legal world. Joe, we 351 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 8: have to go here at Bloomberg, we've all to some 352 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 8: extent have at least had to get semi fluid in 353 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 8: fluent in legal ease. 354 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 4: I just called June Grosso. 355 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: Well this is true. 356 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 3: Well, we actually have some wonderful people to draw on, 357 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,680 Speaker 3: and this has been a massive effort from our legal 358 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:21,399 Speaker 3: and political teams to cover together. 359 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,960 Speaker 8: Absolutely because right now the legal in the political is 360 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 8: very much intersecting. Because we were talking about the Republican 361 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 8: front runner at this point, the very likely Republican nominee, 362 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 8: who is now confirmed going to be in trial in 363 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 8: the middle of primary season starting March twenty fifth. It's official, 364 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 8: and it's hard to campaign when you're spending millions and 365 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,640 Speaker 8: millions and millions of dollars on legal fees. 366 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:43,160 Speaker 4: That's true. 367 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 3: And as we're learning in some great reporting at Bloomberg, 368 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 3: the cash crunch will get real for Donald Trump in July, 369 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 3: knowing that he's already spent over fifty million dollars on 370 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 3: attorney's fees. He's going to blow through another twenty three 371 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 3: and change here in the next couple of months, and 372 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 3: at that point in July could be in the throes 373 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 3: of a trial, and we certainly will be the throes 374 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 3: of a campaign. And that's where we start our conversation 375 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:08,880 Speaker 3: with Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor here in Washington. Laura, 376 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 3: it's great to see you. Let's start with what we 377 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 3: learned today. This is Alvin Bragg's trial in New York, 378 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 3: not considered by everyone to be the most serious of 379 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 3: the cases against him, hush money payments, Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen. 380 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 3: We're going to see all of this unfold starting in 381 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 3: just weeks now. 382 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:29,280 Speaker 9: Yes, and it's important to note that this will be 383 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 9: after Super Tuesday, after a bunch of primaries coming up, 384 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 9: So at that point it is very likely that Trump 385 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 9: will have effectively sewn up the nomination and won't need 386 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 9: to be out having rallies doing things on the campaign trail, 387 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 9: will be able to dedicate more time to the courtroom, 388 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 9: which you know, if you're his advisors, that's an advantageous thing, 389 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 9: but it does mean that the campaign effectively shifts to 390 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 9: the courtroom, and you'll be seeing that dichotomy between President 391 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 9: Joe Biden in the White House campaigning as president and 392 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 9: former President Donald Trump in. 393 00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:00,439 Speaker 8: The courtroom, well, in the courtroom with a bunch of attorneys. 394 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: And we already. 395 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,879 Speaker 8: Learned that in twenty twenty three he spent what fifty 396 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 8: million dollars of funds for his campaign on legal fees 397 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 8: coming from super packs. 398 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 1: How much does he have left in the war chest? 399 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 8: And when's he going to run out of money? Because 400 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 8: if we're talking about a trial here in Washington that 401 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 8: could follow the trial in New York in pretty short order, 402 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 8: depending on the decision of the Supreme Court, we could 403 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 8: be talking back to back trials that take us through 404 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 8: the summer here. 405 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 9: Yes, so here's kind of a simple breakdown of the numbers. 406 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 9: He started with a little bit more than seventy five 407 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 9: million dollars of money in his political operation he could tap. 408 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: He spent just a little bit more than fifty million. 409 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 9: Of that last year, and so over the next six 410 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 9: months he's going to spend down very likely if he 411 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 9: spends at the same rate he did last year. 412 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 1: You know, the remaining twenty three million. 413 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 9: Or so that he has left in the bank, and 414 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 9: that's where things get tricky. One it'll be July, It'll 415 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 9: be in the heat of both the summer as well 416 00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 9: as the general campaign mode, and he either then has 417 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 9: to go to donors to get more money, which means 418 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 9: that that money is not going into his campaign, or 419 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 9: ask the RNC, the re Publican National Committee, to pay 420 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 9: his legal bills, which is likely to be a sort 421 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 9: of fraught discussion because they are. 422 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: Also behind on fundraising. 423 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 9: So this is sets up a really big issue for 424 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 9: not only Donald Trump and his campaign, but Republicans across 425 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 9: the board. 426 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:13,719 Speaker 3: What do the rules changing have to do when you 427 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 3: go from primary spending to general elections spending? Does that 428 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 3: affect any of the accounts that he's pulling from. 429 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 9: So generally, you can raise, you the way that campaign 430 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 9: finance rules work, you can raise money that certainly earmarked 431 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:27,679 Speaker 9: for the primary, and then new money that's in for 432 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 9: the general. So he will be able to go back 433 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 9: to donors who have donated before and get more money. 434 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 9: But these are really big numbers that we're talking about, 435 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 9: you know, you know, twenty five million dollars, you know, 436 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,679 Speaker 9: for over two quarters or so that is you know, 437 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 9: a huge chunk of change and would really dent the 438 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,159 Speaker 9: money that would be going into other races. 439 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 8: Yeah, and as you're talking about spending money there, maybe 440 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 8: it's less money you'd be spending on traditional campaigning, which, 441 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 8: as we've had extensive conversations about Donald Trump in many ways, 442 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 8: isn't necessarily a traditional political candidate. He has a lot 443 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,199 Speaker 8: of earned media that he doesn't need to pay for, 444 00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 8: and part of that's the nature of being a form president, 445 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 8: not just a presidential candidate. But we also know that 446 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 8: voter's minds about him change. Our own polling here at 447 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 8: Bloomberg with Morning Consult has shown this if he is 448 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 8: convicted of a felony, and we very realistically could be 449 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 8: talking about a conviction before we get to the Republican convention. Laura, 450 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 8: how should we be thinking about this in political terms? 451 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 8: What does this mean for Nicki Haley? 452 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:22,679 Speaker 1: For example, so. 453 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 9: We know that the general is going to be close, 454 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 9: you know, it does give Nicki Haley an advantage if 455 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 9: he is convicted, if he's potentially behind bars, if something 456 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 9: happens to him health wise or anywise else, you know, 457 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 9: Nicki Haley is still running essentially so she can sort 458 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:37,439 Speaker 9: of be the party standard bearer in second place, and 459 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 9: whether that means twenty twenty four or twenty twenty eight 460 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 9: or something down the line. But if Trump, you know, 461 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 9: is convicted, let's say over the summer or in the fall, 462 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,479 Speaker 9: we know that that means that in swing states voters 463 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 9: are less likely to vote for him, which is a 464 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 9: huge advantage for Joe Biden and also a reason why 465 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 9: Trump would need more money to be able to run 466 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 9: more ads, to do more get out the vote efforts, 467 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 9: to do all of these things to make up for 468 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 9: you know what that that you know, sort of headwinds 469 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 9: would be on the conviction front. 470 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 3: We were talking with our panel a little bit about 471 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 3: how this could impact Nikki Haley's decision, even if she 472 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 3: performs terribly in South Carolina, even if to your point, Laura, 473 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 3: Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee following Super Tuesday, that 474 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 3: she might want to wait to see how these trials 475 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 3: pan out and just hold her breath until the conventions. 476 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,200 Speaker 3: Don't need to spend any money, just wait in the wings. 477 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 9: Yeah, and Nikki Haley has done very well with fundraising, 478 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 9: so she's able to kind of keep her campaign going 479 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 9: even at just sort of a bare bones level, essentially 480 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 9: for as long as she wants, you know, looking at 481 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 9: just even the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, she 482 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 9: was almost raising as much money as Trump, which is impressive. 483 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:44,639 Speaker 9: She even today is in Texas. She's fundraising with Carlon 484 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 9: Crow and other big oil and gas names down in Texas. 485 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:52,120 Speaker 9: So she's able to go and donors have said, look, 486 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 9: we want. 487 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: To keep funding her. We don't want Trump. We'll keep 488 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 1: supporting her as long as she's in this fight. 489 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 8: Well, and it's funny you mentioned Harlan Crowe because of 490 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,119 Speaker 8: course we also know that name because of his relationship 491 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,240 Speaker 8: with Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. And then this somehow 492 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 8: comes back to the Supreme Court and the legal issues 493 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 8: that we began this conversation talking about Bloomberg Politics editor, 494 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 8: Lord Davison, Thank you so much. It certainly is head spinning. 495 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 8: So to help us make sense of the developments specifically 496 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 8: in the legal world today, we want to bring in 497 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 8: now Jessica Roth. She is Jacob Burns Center for Ethics 498 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 8: in the Practice of Lot Cardoza Law School co director 499 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 8: and of course a formal federal prosecutor as well. Jessica, 500 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 8: thanks so much for being with us. We got, of course, 501 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 8: the decision from the judge today. The trial in New 502 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 8: York will begin on March twenty fifth. Is there anything 503 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 8: that Trump and his legal team can do between now 504 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 8: and then to change that. 505 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 10: I don't think there is, in the sense that I 506 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,959 Speaker 10: don't think this is an order that can be appealed 507 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,439 Speaker 10: to the New York courts at this stage. I suppose 508 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 10: they could try to run the federal court to seek 509 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 10: a stay. I don't think that that is likely to succeed. 510 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 10: He's previously tried to remove the case of federal court 511 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 10: and that was rejected. I think that as a practical matter, 512 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 10: the thing that might delay it would be if there's 513 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 10: movement in one of the other cases. For example, if 514 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 10: the US Supreme Court were to say it wasn't going 515 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 10: to take cert on the case involving immunity in the 516 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 10: January sixth case, or if it quickly decided against him 517 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,800 Speaker 10: on that case and that matter were reset for trial 518 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 10: in DC. That wouldn't preempt this trial in terms of 519 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,120 Speaker 10: the trial date. But if it looked like that were 520 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 10: on track, one could imagine that the two judges the 521 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,360 Speaker 10: DC District Court judge and the judge in New York 522 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 10: would communicate, and the judge in New York might defer 523 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 10: to the preparations for that case, which is what we 524 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:41,120 Speaker 10: all thought was happening initially before the case got put 525 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 10: on hold in DC. So it could be a calendaring 526 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,040 Speaker 10: issue between various courts, But legally, I'm not seeing the 527 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 10: route to delay the proceedings in any other respect. 528 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 3: Jessica, it's good to have you back on Bloomberg TV 529 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 3: and radio. I'm wondering, if you can talk to us, 530 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 3: assuming this trial starts as planned March twenty fifth, what 531 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:03,360 Speaker 3: jury selection would look like. Bloomberg is reporting that jurors 532 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 3: may have to disclose what bumper stickers they have on 533 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 3: their cars, whether they've read the art of the deal, 534 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 3: what radio shows they listen to. How difficult will it 535 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:14,920 Speaker 3: be to assemble this group in New York. 536 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 10: I think it's going to be a challenge to select 537 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 10: a jury that can be fair and impartial in this case. 538 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:25,120 Speaker 10: I think the ver dear process, that questioning of jurors 539 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,480 Speaker 10: to know what they've heard about this case and whether 540 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 10: they think they can be fair and impartial, is going 541 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 10: to be a challenging one that said, the judge who 542 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 10: presided over the civil case, the defamation case, and the 543 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 10: sexual assault case involving Egene Carroll did in panel a 544 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 10: jury twice, so we know it has been done before 545 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 10: in New York. And these two courthouses, the Federal District 546 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:52,160 Speaker 10: Court were those defamation cases were tried, and the criminal 547 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 10: court where this case is going to be tried in March. 548 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 10: They're just across the street from each other, so they're 549 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 10: drawing upon many of the same jurors, not exactly the 550 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,440 Speaker 10: same jury pool, the jury pool for the Manhattan cases 551 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 10: Manhattan as opposed to the Federal District Court where it's 552 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,359 Speaker 10: a broader district. But nevertheless it's been done. I'll be 553 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,920 Speaker 10: very interested to see what if any protections are put 554 00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,720 Speaker 10: in place for those jurors. As you may recall, in 555 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 10: the civil defamation cases involving Egene Carroll, the judge made 556 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:25,679 Speaker 10: those jurors anonymous, meaning nobody learn their identities, and so 557 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,160 Speaker 10: I'll be very interested to see what, if any discussion 558 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,560 Speaker 10: there is about protections for the jury in the criminal 559 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 10: case against former President Trump. 560 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:40,400 Speaker 8: Well, yeah, the security considerations around this certainly are significant, 561 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 8: considering this as a former president we're talking about, and 562 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 8: I would imagine there will be quite a circus in 563 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 8: New York as this trial begins. I feel like it's 564 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 8: worth reminding our TV and radio audience, as Jessica, just 565 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,439 Speaker 8: what exactly it is the former president has been charged with. 566 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 8: Here we're talking thirty four counts of falsifying business records. 567 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 8: Usually in the state of New York, that's just a misdemeanor, 568 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 8: and Alvin Brown, I'd made them felonies because he says 569 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 8: it was done with the intention of violating state and 570 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,800 Speaker 8: federal election law. Can you just walk us through the 571 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 8: strength of these case, bringing these charges making them felony 572 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 8: charges specifically, and how likely it is you think he 573 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 8: would be convicted on all or any of them. 574 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,959 Speaker 10: So, the charges that were brought, as you mentioned, are 575 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:24,360 Speaker 10: falsification of business records. Under New York law, that can 576 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 10: be a misdemeanor at its most basic level when a 577 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 10: person intentionally creates and enters into the business records of 578 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 10: their organization false entries. But it can also be a 579 00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 10: felony when that false entry is made with the intent 580 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:43,200 Speaker 10: to further or conceal another crime. And as a felony 581 00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 10: that is frequently charged in New York, so it's not 582 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 10: all that unusual that this crime, in its felony version 583 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:53,920 Speaker 10: is charged here. The allegation is that the false entries 584 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,440 Speaker 10: were made in the business records of the Trump organization 585 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 10: in order to conceal the payments to Michael to reimburse 586 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 10: him for the payments he in turn made to Stormy 587 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 10: Daniels and to others to conceal an alleged affair with 588 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,479 Speaker 10: the former president at the time that he was running 589 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 10: for office in twenty sixteen, when it was thought that 590 00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,879 Speaker 10: if the affair became public, or the allegations of the 591 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 10: affair became public, that that would hurt his campaign chances, 592 00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 10: and the reimbursements to Cohen for those payments that were 593 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 10: made during the campaign continued in twenty seventeen even after 594 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 10: Trump took office. Now, the legal theory for the crime 595 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:37,280 Speaker 10: that Trump allegedly was trying to further or conceal through 596 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,040 Speaker 10: the false business entries, which was those entries of the 597 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 10: payments to Cohen as reimbursement for payments for legal fees 598 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 10: sort of. Those underlying crimes that the entries were designed 599 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 10: to conceal are alleged to be several, including violations of 600 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 10: the federal elections law, violations of New York state elections law, 601 00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 10: and violations of New York state tax laws. And the 602 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:05,959 Speaker 10: court basically said those are three permissible theories to underlie 603 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,240 Speaker 10: the charge, the felony charge, that the false business entries 604 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 10: were designed to conceal one or more of those crimes. 605 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:19,080 Speaker 3: This will smack of a tabloid trial, though we're going 606 00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 3: to have Stormy Daniels on the stand here telling the story, 607 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 3: Michael Cohen telling his story all over again. 608 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 10: I would say, certainly we will have the testimony of 609 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 10: Michael Cohen. I imagine we would have the testimony of 610 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,320 Speaker 10: Stormy Daniels, although to my mind that's less clearly necessary. 611 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 10: But yes, Michael Cohen would be an important witness for 612 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:40,480 Speaker 10: the prosecution. 613 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:41,760 Speaker 1: We all are. 614 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 10: Familiar with the problems of his credibility, given that, among 615 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,320 Speaker 10: other things, he has pleaded guilty to lying under oath 616 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:51,960 Speaker 10: before and all of that will be explored, I'm sure, 617 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 10: on cross examination, and I imagine that the prosecutors will 618 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 10: actually elicit it on their direct examination as well, so 619 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,719 Speaker 10: that they are putting before the jury on everything that 620 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 10: they know about Michael Cohen and the jury can evaluate 621 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 10: his credibility, and the key to the case from the 622 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 10: prosecution's perspective is going to be can they corroborate Michael 623 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 10: Cohen's accountess with the testimony of other witnesses and with 624 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 10: documentary evidence, including the checks that were made out to him, 625 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 10: the invoices, and other documents that would corroborate his account 626 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,320 Speaker 10: about what those payments were for. 627 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 8: Jessica, we only have about a minute left with you, 628 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 8: but I also want to get your take on the 629 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,920 Speaker 8: response we got from the Special Council here in Washington, 630 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,480 Speaker 8: Jack Smith's to the Supreme Court after Trump asked for 631 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,280 Speaker 8: a stay in this case. Here, Jack Smith basically says 632 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,960 Speaker 8: the case should go forward without delay because the nation 633 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 8: has a compelling interest in seeing the charges brought to trial. 634 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,360 Speaker 8: How do you expect the court will decide here and 635 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 8: how soon? 636 00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,520 Speaker 10: It's really hard to say. I imagine that the court 637 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 10: will decide fairly soon, perhaps as soon as next week, 638 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 10: whether it's going to grant the stay or not. That's 639 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,720 Speaker 10: the first thing it has to decide. Will it stay 640 00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 10: the mandate from the District of Columbia Court of Appeals. 641 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,440 Speaker 10: If it doesn't grant the stay and the case is 642 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 10: going to go back to the district court to resume 643 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 10: the trial day, which is what we started talking about earlier. 644 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,760 Speaker 10: It also have to decide whether to actually review the 645 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 10: case independently of the stay. So there's a scenario where 646 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 10: they don't grant the stay, but they do say we'll 647 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 10: consider the case on the merits. It's hard to say 648 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,080 Speaker 10: whether they're going to take it or not. It is 649 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,120 Speaker 10: such an important novel question whether there is immunity from 650 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 10: criminal prosecution or a former president, but it's just it's 651 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 10: really hard to predict. 652 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 4: Well, Jessica, thank you. 653 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,520 Speaker 3: That was incredibly helpful as seminar once again with Jessica 654 00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:49,440 Speaker 3: Roth with us from Cardozo Law, former federal prosecutor in 655 00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,920 Speaker 3: the US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York. 656 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:57,719 Speaker 3: Breaking news today in the case hush money case against 657 00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:58,360 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. 658 00:31:58,400 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg. 659 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:06,720 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 660 00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,720 Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on epocr Play and 661 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,920 Speaker 2: then reuno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 662 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 663 00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 8: Welcome back to Balance of Power on both Bloomberg TV 664 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,400 Speaker 8: and Radio. Nothing like scheduling testimony from the Chairman of 665 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 8: the Fed the week of the State of the Union 666 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,240 Speaker 8: and potentially when parts of the government are going to 667 00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,560 Speaker 8: be shut down, Joe. But I guess we all just 668 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,160 Speaker 8: got to buckle up for the first week. 669 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,560 Speaker 4: Of March taking that week off, So good luck with that. 670 00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 4: Let me know. 671 00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 3: Oh, I'm super Tuesday, Super Tuesday State of the Union. 672 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,600 Speaker 3: The hits keep coming here, Kaylee. And they do for 673 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:47,240 Speaker 3: this Republican speaker. 674 00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:47,880 Speaker 2: Yeah. 675 00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 3: And I'm not even talking about being jammed by the 676 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 3: Senate or dealing with controversial legislation. 677 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:57,040 Speaker 4: It's the retirements. We're at five now, five high profile 678 00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,960 Speaker 4: Republican chairs who say they don't want to do this anymore, 679 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 4: and one of them just yesterday, Mark Green announced his 680 00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 4: resignation or retirement. I guess I should say, the day 681 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 4: after his committee impeached the Homeland Security Secretary. And you 682 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 4: would have thought that was a win. 683 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:15,960 Speaker 1: For him, you would have thought. 684 00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,760 Speaker 8: And yet the statement he gave when announcing about that 685 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,280 Speaker 8: that he's not seeking reelection is pretty brutal. 686 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:22,560 Speaker 2: Joe. 687 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:26,520 Speaker 8: The quote, our country and our Congress is broken beyond 688 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 8: most means of repair. I have come to realize our 689 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 8: fight is not here within Washington. Our fight is with Washington. 690 00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,120 Speaker 8: It's just a stunning statement. 691 00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 3: Mark Green add the chairs of Energy and Commerce, Financial Services, Appropriations, 692 00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 3: now the China Select Committee. Mike Gallagher was I think 693 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:50,120 Speaker 3: the most recent before Green. Here, we need to assemble 694 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 3: our panel for their take on this. Ginny Shanzano is 695 00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 3: here Bloomberg Politics contributor, joined by Lisa Camuso Miller, former 696 00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 3: communications director of the RNC, host of The Friday Reporter 697 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:00,440 Speaker 3: pot Cast. 698 00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:02,320 Speaker 4: Lisa. 699 00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 3: I don't want to pick on you as a Republican, 700 00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 3: but I am curious your thoughts here. You worked for 701 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,879 Speaker 3: a Republican Speaker of the House. What's Mike Johnson doing wrong? 702 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 10: Oh? 703 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:13,600 Speaker 1: I don't know if the. 704 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 11: Blame goes to the speaker. I mean, I think that 705 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 11: this epidemic has been happening long before he took the. 706 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:19,600 Speaker 1: Gavel, that is for sure, Joe. 707 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:21,839 Speaker 11: What I think is happening, though, is I think we're 708 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,240 Speaker 11: losing some really tremendous leaders in the House in general. 709 00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,360 Speaker 11: As we see these chairmen, the chairs step away. And 710 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,800 Speaker 11: the problem here is not so much that it leaves 711 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 11: more room for those that are in sort of the 712 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:38,920 Speaker 11: troublemaking part of the conference to rise up to then 713 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 11: become chairs. And that's something that I think is even 714 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 11: more concerning. The districts that they're evacuating will either go 715 00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,640 Speaker 11: to because some of them are are challenged districts, so 716 00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,239 Speaker 11: they'll go to the Democratic Party. There's an opportunity for 717 00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 11: pickups in a couple of those seats, but also two 718 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:57,000 Speaker 11: we risk run the risk of now having more radical 719 00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:01,399 Speaker 11: and more well willing to buck the system if you will, 720 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 11: members come into those districts. So it's not as if 721 00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 11: a freshman member would step into the chair of some 722 00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 11: of these great and powerful committees. It's that it opens 723 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 11: up an opportunity for more of sort of the early 724 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,000 Speaker 11: The problem in the conference is not necessarily with the 725 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,040 Speaker 11: leadership and those that have been there for some time. 726 00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,279 Speaker 11: It's some of the newer members that are willing and 727 00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,360 Speaker 11: ready to disrupt everything that is happening. 728 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:25,200 Speaker 1: And that's what we're. 729 00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 11: Seeing and I think that's the difficulty with some of 730 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,799 Speaker 11: these committee chairs is that they want to they want 731 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,799 Speaker 11: to invoke power. They also want to enact really great 732 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:38,239 Speaker 11: legislation and policy, and that is it's uncapable of being 733 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,399 Speaker 11: done right now. There's just not the ability to have 734 00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,799 Speaker 11: that happen, and that's where you see the frustration and 735 00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 11: them stepping away. But the retirements aren't on both sides. 736 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,279 Speaker 11: So we see a lot of Republicans stepping away. There 737 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 11: are a lot of Democrats that are also making that choice. 738 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,960 Speaker 8: Absolutely, And Genie, just to go back to the statement 739 00:35:55,120 --> 00:36:00,359 Speaker 8: from the for Now chairman, our country and our Congress 740 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:04,880 Speaker 8: is broken beyond most means of repair. Do departures like 741 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,719 Speaker 8: this from leaders in the House make it all that 742 00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,760 Speaker 8: more difficult to repair? 743 00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:11,400 Speaker 1: How can it be repaired? 744 00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 12: Yeah, it is so difficult. You know, he's talking about 745 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:21,040 Speaker 12: fighting Washington from the outside, and what really needs to 746 00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:25,160 Speaker 12: happen is Washington needs to be repaired from the inside. 747 00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:29,880 Speaker 12: So we need to see reform in Congress itself. And 748 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 12: if there is this brain drain, and that was a 749 00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:36,120 Speaker 12: great descriptor that was used in the Bloomberg piece, you 750 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,879 Speaker 12: know that's what's actually occurring. And I would just say 751 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:42,560 Speaker 12: it's not just a brain drain, it's also the people 752 00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 12: who are the workhorses, who are want to make policy, 753 00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 12: who are interested in legislation. Those are the people that 754 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,880 Speaker 12: we're seeing leaving and the showmen and women are staying 755 00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,759 Speaker 12: and that doesn't vote well for any of us. We 756 00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,560 Speaker 12: have twenty four retirements now, fourteen of which are on 757 00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 12: the Republican side, five of which are chairs, and the 758 00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:09,400 Speaker 12: numbers will likely only get worse. You know, Let's just 759 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:13,879 Speaker 12: remember it is what February fifteenth, The government shuts down 760 00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,520 Speaker 12: at least partly starting March first, And where is Congress? 761 00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:21,720 Speaker 12: The House is leaving town for two weeks. What sense 762 00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:23,560 Speaker 12: does that make? And who would want to stay in 763 00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,399 Speaker 12: an institution operating this way? 764 00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:28,680 Speaker 4: Well, let's get into that for a minute here, Lisa. 765 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:32,879 Speaker 3: I think we've appropriately framed the dysfunction as the baseline 766 00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:37,560 Speaker 3: in Congress. To Janie's point, everybody's leaving town. What an 767 00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:40,200 Speaker 3: hour from now? It's official, Senate's already gone. They don't 768 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:42,560 Speaker 3: come back until the end of the month, and there 769 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,480 Speaker 3: will be seventy two legislative hours, not even actually it'll 770 00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:49,640 Speaker 3: be three days, three business days to get this done. 771 00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,600 Speaker 3: And when I say this, I mean figure a way 772 00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,320 Speaker 3: to fund the government. Do people need to start preparing 773 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:56,080 Speaker 3: for a shutdown? 774 00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,719 Speaker 11: Yep, for the longest short of it. So yeah, it 775 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:06,120 Speaker 11: seems really likely because there are so many things that 776 00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:10,760 Speaker 11: are the fractions are everywhere, right. The fractions are happening 777 00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:14,640 Speaker 11: in the Senate, in the House, on the Republican side, 778 00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,680 Speaker 11: on the Democrat side. We can't seem to agree on 779 00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,640 Speaker 11: just about anything at this point. And the problem is 780 00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:24,560 Speaker 11: that this isn't just about shutting down the government in 781 00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,080 Speaker 11: sort of the traditional people. We have to remember that 782 00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:30,560 Speaker 11: that means that we have armed services that doesn't get paid. 783 00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:32,840 Speaker 1: We have people that are in difficult. 784 00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,160 Speaker 11: And challenging parts of the globe that are not getting 785 00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,520 Speaker 11: paid and not getting compensated for the hard work that 786 00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:41,040 Speaker 11: they do. So not just regular government functions, but everything else. 787 00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,400 Speaker 11: And yes, it absolutely feels that way. I mean, it 788 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,520 Speaker 11: was Meg Greenfield who wrote this book, this great book 789 00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:47,000 Speaker 11: that if you haven't read, you have to read. It's 790 00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:49,680 Speaker 11: from my mid so many years ago. But it's about 791 00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:53,360 Speaker 11: how Congress operates like a like a high school. You 792 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:57,400 Speaker 11: have freshmen, you have sophomores, you've seniors, you have a vacation, 793 00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:00,880 Speaker 11: summer vacation, you have holiday breaks. That's precisely how your 794 00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:02,400 Speaker 11: Congress works every single day. 795 00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:03,800 Speaker 1: I read this book in so many days. 796 00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:07,200 Speaker 11: But the other thing too, all of those things that's happening, 797 00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,560 Speaker 11: they are right exactly right, Kaylee, It's exactly that. And 798 00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,440 Speaker 11: so the difficulty here is we are dealing with teenagers. 799 00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,759 Speaker 11: They are all on social media. They're all looking for 800 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:19,520 Speaker 11: ways to be, as Genie said, to be seeking publicity 801 00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,640 Speaker 11: and not necessarily policy. That's the challenge that we have here. 802 00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,560 Speaker 11: And so the fact that they're going home, that's the 803 00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,120 Speaker 11: way they operate in Congress. But unfortunately it used to 804 00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:29,359 Speaker 11: be that they would get their work done and then 805 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,479 Speaker 11: they would go home. Now it's just we're going home. 806 00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:34,200 Speaker 11: And a lot of what you hear from leadership is 807 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,600 Speaker 11: that members are tired of being here and arguing all 808 00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:39,600 Speaker 11: day long, Republicans and Democrats. 809 00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:40,840 Speaker 1: So it's a challenge. 810 00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:42,359 Speaker 11: It's a challenge we're going to see for the rest 811 00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:43,799 Speaker 11: of the year, and it's only going to get harder 812 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:44,640 Speaker 11: because we're looking at. 813 00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:46,759 Speaker 1: Election election Day in November. 814 00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,560 Speaker 8: When you describe Congress like high school, it helps you 815 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,840 Speaker 8: understand the retirements a little bit more, perhaps because I 816 00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,080 Speaker 8: wouldn't want to spend another year in high school. You 817 00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:58,440 Speaker 8: cannot make me O, thank you go back there. Genie. 818 00:39:58,480 --> 00:39:58,759 Speaker 4: Just to. 819 00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,160 Speaker 8: To Speaker Johnson specifically, as we're talking about the challenge 820 00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:05,799 Speaker 8: of funding the government, he of course, has said repeatedly 821 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:09,000 Speaker 8: he does not want to do another short term continuing resolution. 822 00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:13,160 Speaker 8: We've already seen several short term continuing resolutions. Is this 823 00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,080 Speaker 8: ultimately going to come down to the decision of doing 824 00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:20,400 Speaker 8: another stopgap measure or losing your speakership in the process. 825 00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,799 Speaker 12: Yeah, I think so. And Kaylee, you reminded me of 826 00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,600 Speaker 12: that great Reese Witherspoon movie Election, which is fabulous, talking 827 00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:30,080 Speaker 12: about Congress as high school. 828 00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:33,799 Speaker 3: But everyone's aside tonight to go watch that, Genie. 829 00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,600 Speaker 12: That's right, it's so good. But you know, the fact 830 00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,720 Speaker 12: is is that he made a promise that he simply 831 00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,640 Speaker 12: now cannot keep. And it's just one of many. I mean, 832 00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:48,480 Speaker 12: the reality is he can't do anything about Faiza. I 833 00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:51,360 Speaker 12: mean I was, you know, kept saying that I was 834 00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:55,080 Speaker 12: optimistic only because they wouldn't want to shut down in 835 00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:58,280 Speaker 12: an election year because obviously nobody wins in that case, 836 00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:00,919 Speaker 12: that they would avoid it. But I'm not so sure 837 00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,480 Speaker 12: how they avoid it now except for a cr and 838 00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:07,800 Speaker 12: to your point, Kaylee, that could likely cost him the speakership. 839 00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:11,920 Speaker 12: So the fact is, there's a great, great Peter Drucker 840 00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:15,160 Speaker 12: quote where he talks about a job that defeats any person, 841 00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:17,680 Speaker 12: you know, three, two or three people in a row 842 00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,799 Speaker 12: needs to be rethought. The Speaker of the House job 843 00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:24,799 Speaker 12: needs to be rethought and reconstructed. It is unworkable at 844 00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:28,439 Speaker 12: this point. I'm no fan of Mike Johnson, but everybody 845 00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,400 Speaker 12: who has tried it of late, except for Nancy Pelosi, 846 00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:34,240 Speaker 12: has ended up in this same position and it's only 847 00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:34,880 Speaker 12: getting worse. 848 00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,840 Speaker 4: Well, there you have it. Maybe it's a power sharing agreement. 849 00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:41,360 Speaker 1: I mean, Mike Jefferies. 850 00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,000 Speaker 3: If Mike Johnson loses two more and anything's possibly, you 851 00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:47,120 Speaker 3: got three vacancies. Now that's actually the conversation that we're 852 00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:48,880 Speaker 3: going to be having here, isn't it. 853 00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,400 Speaker 8: It very well could be. Also the question of if 854 00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,800 Speaker 8: it's not Mike Johnson or hackeing Jeffries of a power 855 00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:57,080 Speaker 8: sharing agreement can't be made, who's going to be the 856 00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:00,000 Speaker 8: speaker next? Well, which many others have tried and failed. 857 00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,160 Speaker 4: In this No one has the answer to that. But 858 00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,600 Speaker 4: I am just going to just leave this here. 859 00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,360 Speaker 3: Tom Emmer is going to be coming on Balance of 860 00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:09,440 Speaker 3: Power a little bit later on today five o'clock here 861 00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:10,720 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 862 00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:12,239 Speaker 4: This is the majority whip. 863 00:42:12,000 --> 00:42:15,880 Speaker 3: He ran for Speaker and he'd be on any shortlist, Kaylie, 864 00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:17,080 Speaker 3: if there were one. 865 00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:18,120 Speaker 4: To be drawn up. 866 00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,080 Speaker 8: Well, we're going to ask him about that for sure 867 00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:23,200 Speaker 8: later this evening. Remember Donald Trump didn't really like the 868 00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:25,120 Speaker 8: idea of a speaker we first go around. 869 00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:29,759 Speaker 4: Yes, that's true. Thanks for listening to the Balance of 870 00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:30,759 Speaker 4: Power podcast. 871 00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:34,480 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 872 00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,160 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 873 00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:40,480 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 874 00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:42,200 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.