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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. Better than Most, Better

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Speaker 1: than Most, Better than Most.

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Speaker 2: Welcome in everybody to the Action Network Podcast. We are

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Speaker 2: back on the greens, the fairways, whatever golf added you

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Speaker 2: want to fill in the blank with, but we're talking golf.

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Speaker 2: Next stop here on the PGA Tour, the one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fiftieth Open Championship, the return to Saint Andrew's, the

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fiftieth Anniversary, the home of golf, as

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Speaker 2: they like to say in Scotland.

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Speaker 1: We have our excellent crew joining us.

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Speaker 2: Your host today, Brendan Glasheen, joining us for this PGA Breakdown,

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Speaker 2: this golf episode.

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Speaker 1: Here on the Action Network Podcast, we have Nick.

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Speaker 2: Brettwish, who is one of the co hosts of Better Golf,

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Speaker 2: Better Golf Pod, and his partner in crime, Spencer Agyar.

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Speaker 1: You can find both of these guys on Twitter.

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Speaker 2: Nick Bettwish is at stix Picks Sticks with an X,

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Speaker 2: and then Spencer is at tee Off Sports Jents looking

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Speaker 2: forward to this episode getting set for the Open Championship

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Speaker 2: in Scotland.

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Speaker 1: Spencer will go to you first here.

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Speaker 2: I always find a little coarse breakdown interesting to get

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Speaker 2: us started here, especially when.

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Speaker 1: You look at the field.

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Speaker 2: It's a little different because we don't have a ton

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Speaker 2: of history with this field here in terms of the golfers.

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Speaker 3: No, we don't, and that's gonna make it unique with

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Speaker 3: the way that we handicap this tournament in general. So

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Speaker 3: we have the Old Course at Saint Andrews. It's three

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Speaker 3: five yards parse seventy two, a mixture of greens that

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Speaker 3: feature half fescue, a quarter bent grass, ten percent poe

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Speaker 3: and a small combination of local grasses. Most of what

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Speaker 3: I just said there doesn't do a great job of

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Speaker 3: explaining the venue. There are some weeks where the yardage

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Speaker 3: r par total gives you a broad understanding of what

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Speaker 3: to expect, but Saint Andrew's isn't enigma when compared to

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Speaker 3: other typical Open Championship tracks. The one similarity is the weather.

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Speaker 3: That will be the ultimate decider on how difficult of

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Speaker 3: the test we should expect for the week. But the

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Speaker 3: Old Course has universally been regarded as one of the

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Speaker 3: most straightforward Open venues in the rotation and calm conditions.

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Speaker 3: I do believe the RNA is aware of this and

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Speaker 3: will do everything in its power to make the fairways

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Speaker 3: that brown. You know, baked out texture that will create

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Speaker 3: some zip, but there isn't a ton that you can

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Speaker 3: do to change the property and make it more difficult.

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Speaker 3: It's one of those courses where one hundred years ago

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Speaker 3: the penalties were more pronounced, but modern technology has removed

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Speaker 3: a ton of the danger off the tea for your

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Speaker 3: longer hitters that can carry the fairway bunkers. There really

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Speaker 3: isn't any more link that could be added to these holes,

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Speaker 3: so you're left with the two primary defenses of the

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Speaker 3: properties being wind and then the massive greens that do

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Speaker 3: roll on the slower side of the equation because of

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Speaker 3: the fescue grass texture. You know, I mentioned at the

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Speaker 3: beginning that we couldn't even use the par total as

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Speaker 3: a potential measure to handicap, and the reason for that

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Speaker 3: is because we get an abnormal fourteen par four holes,

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Speaker 3: two par fives and three or two part twos.

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Speaker 1: Excuse me.

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Speaker 3: There half of those par four stretch between three hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty to four hundred yards, meaning a massive boost

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Speaker 3: in short iron proximity will be needed, and then the

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Speaker 3: combination of distance and accuracy can equally come into play

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Speaker 3: because of these firm fairways that will generate speed like

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Speaker 3: think of it like this. The longer hitters can get

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Speaker 3: within a handful of yards of most of these green complexes.

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Speaker 3: Shorter hitters will still be looking at probably about fifty

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Speaker 3: yard type pitch shots themselves. It's a venue where all

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Speaker 3: game types off the tee can play, but it will

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Speaker 3: take a premiere short game, whether that be from three

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Speaker 3: put avoidance or stellar wedge place to tear this place apart.

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Speaker 3: And that's how I built my model.

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Speaker 2: This week very good, and I'm glad you mentioned the

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Speaker 2: weather because Thursday could be slightly slightly mild, but then

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Speaker 2: going into the end of the week it will cool

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Speaker 2: off a bit, but nothing too daunting in terms of

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Speaker 2: hot weather this weekend for the Open Championship, Nick, I

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Speaker 2: want to throw a trend at you that jumps out

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Speaker 2: to me in terms of looking ahead to the weekend. Here,

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Speaker 2: fourteen of the past sixteen winners of the Open Championship

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Speaker 2: had a top nine finish or better at this event

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Speaker 2: in a previous year to then go on and win it.

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Speaker 1: Are you reading to that at all? No? Not really.

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Speaker 4: I mean the field, the field's so young. I don't

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Speaker 4: really think it's it's that important. I mean obviously, We'reory's

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Speaker 4: going to get a lot of the love from the

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Speaker 4: public with his you know, past experience at the Open Championship.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Colin won it last year. It seems like

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Speaker 4: nobody has anything to say about Calm ri Kawa this year.

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Speaker 4: So no, not really, Like I think of a guy overall,

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Speaker 4: my favorite play on the board in terms of any

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Speaker 4: market I could really get exposure to right now, is

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Speaker 4: cam Smith and he really doesn't have any Open Championship

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Speaker 4: exposure that you know, really screams that the past history

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Speaker 4: should create success here. So to me, not really. I

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Speaker 4: mean I want guys that are in form I think

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Speaker 4: for the most part. But that's really all I care

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Speaker 4: about this year. I mean guys that in the top

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Speaker 4: ten previously. It's not a whole lot to me outside

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Speaker 4: of Rory. But you know, we don't need to read

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Speaker 4: a lot to say that Rory is in great form

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Speaker 4: right now, in a great golfer overall.

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Speaker 2: Fair enough, Rory is your favorite on many boards at

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Speaker 2: plus nine hundred I'm seeing right now on DraftKings, and

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Speaker 2: you've got Xander Schaffle who's playing well as of late.

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Speaker 2: He's twelve to one down the board. You mentioned cam Smith,

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Speaker 2: he's twenty five to one. Morikawa he's at thirty to one.

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Speaker 2: So look, I'm glad you brought this up because something

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Speaker 2: about cam Smith and you can kind of get into

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Speaker 2: two picks.

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Speaker 1: Now we'll have best bets, some long shot picks.

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Speaker 2: Potentially some sleepers, and then we'll get into some top

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Speaker 2: forty stuff, top twenties. Spencer and Nick are all over

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Speaker 2: it when they put together the car, getting ready for

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Speaker 2: these big events, not just the big events, but other

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Speaker 2: events throughout the course of the PGA Tour. So Nick,

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Speaker 2: go back, We'll go back to you why and just

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Speaker 2: to kind of tee you up here. Pun non intended,

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Speaker 2: but maybe it should be. Cam Smith has the short

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Speaker 2: game in the putting to take advantage of some these

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Speaker 2: par fours on this course too.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely so, he's one of the best putters in the planet.

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Speaker 4: His short proximities that Spencer touchdown earlier I strongly strongly

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Speaker 4: value one hundred yards in on this course is around

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Speaker 4: the green. If he's even closer than fifty yards, his

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Speaker 4: proximities around the green are incredible. He's relatively long off

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Speaker 4: the tea, not really in comparison to a lot of

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Speaker 4: you know, the top bombers that are at this course,

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Speaker 4: but he is erratic off the tee and this is

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Speaker 4: something with these wide fairways I think should be a

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Speaker 4: great course fit for a guy like Cameron Smith. If

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Speaker 4: the weather does get windy and turned a little bit,

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Speaker 4: I think it still plays in the camp Smith's favor

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Speaker 4: If it rains, it doesn't look like there's any ray

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Speaker 4: in the forecast, but this is Europe. Anything could happen

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Speaker 4: on the turn of a dime. Then I'd maybe fade

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Speaker 4: a little bit just because the distance. You know, he's

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Speaker 4: not going to get the roll out with the hard

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Speaker 4: grounds and the surfaces that Spencer talked about. But everything

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Speaker 4: about Cam Smith's game seems to check these boxes. And

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Speaker 4: really the only downside is he doesn't hit a ton

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Speaker 4: of fairways, but these are the widest fairways he'll play

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Speaker 4: in sometime.

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Speaker 2: Okay, very good in terms of outright winners, Spencer, who

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Speaker 2: are some guys that you're on?

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Speaker 4: You know?

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Speaker 3: Just to touch on what Nick just said too, it's

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Speaker 3: it's the same concept with the player like Jordan's speeth.

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Speaker 3: I think it's why we've seen these players have success

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Speaker 3: at the Masters. They've had success at Kapalua. That would

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Speaker 3: be the Tournament of Champions. It's like these wide open

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Speaker 3: tracks where you can't really miss or something to look into.

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Speaker 3: But for me for outrights, and I'm going to keep

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Speaker 3: my card pretty wide open just because weather does come

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Speaker 3: into play. You know, you want to keep as many

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Speaker 3: bullets as you can in the holster for it. And

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Speaker 3: there's going to be in tournament bets where I think

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Speaker 3: you're going to get some wave advantages that you might

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Speaker 3: be able to take advantage of. But I do have

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Speaker 3: a two guys that are closer to the top of

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Speaker 3: the board and then a handful of long shots, so

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Speaker 3: start Patrick Can'tlay. I've seen this as high as twenty

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Speaker 3: eight to one. I was fortunate to be able to

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Speaker 3: grab a thirty three to one months ago when I

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Speaker 3: bet him for all four majors. But the perception around

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Speaker 3: cantlay continues to boost his outright price in these big

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Speaker 3: tournament spots. We have had points this year where can't

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Speaker 3: Ley has been number one in the world for scrambling.

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Speaker 3: He's still inside the top ten for win play. The

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Speaker 3: putting from five to ten feet places him second in

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Speaker 3: this field. Sure we can dash him for underachieving results

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Speaker 3: when playing in the most significant events. But fourteenth at

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Speaker 3: the US opened recently and the form is percolating. With

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Speaker 3: four straight top fourteen finishes. I bet Dustin Johnson at

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Speaker 3: forty to one. It sounds outlandish to say right now,

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Speaker 3: but I do believe Dustin is going to win this tournament.

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Speaker 3: He's second in my model, behind only Rory Maclori when

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Speaker 3: running it for both overall and upside. The high end

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Speaker 3: results are phenomenal from a statistical perspective, ranking first and

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Speaker 3: weight to t de Green, fourth and par four average.

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Speaker 3: That would be the recollection that I did there. Second

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Speaker 3: in total driving and fourth and weighted proximity. Probably gonna

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Speaker 3: also be one of my favorite plays on DraftKings if

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Speaker 3: he's gonna be sub ten percent, and then from there

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Speaker 3: that's essentially where I just threw a bunch of darts.

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Speaker 3: I took Adam Scott at one hundred to one. He

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Speaker 3: does have a negative trajectory in my model for upside,

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Speaker 3: but that isn't a death sentence when we get these

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Speaker 3: prices that stretch into the triple digit range. One of

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Speaker 3: the things that I mentioned earlier is I think you're

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Speaker 3: going to be able to putt from off the surface

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Speaker 3: versus having the chip. I believe he can get an

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Speaker 3: improvement there with his potential. I took Web Simpson at

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Speaker 3: one hundred and sixty to one if you exclude the

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Speaker 3: John Dear Classic. He has gained his past five tournaments

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Speaker 3: both off the teen approach, and it's historically been these

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Speaker 3: slow surfaces like Saint andrews Hire, Simpson has been able

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Speaker 3: to take advantage of his flat stick prowess. I took

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Speaker 3: Thomas Peters one hundred and thirty to one. That combination

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Speaker 3: of distance and short iron proximity can be extremely beneficial

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Speaker 3: because of the reduction of par five scoring. I don't

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Speaker 3: know if he can actually win, but these link style

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Speaker 3: courses have been known to produce random chaos. And then

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Speaker 3: I did a number grab with Sung JM at eighty

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Speaker 3: to one. My model loves his upside potential but also

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Speaker 3: hates his floor. That's never going to be a problem

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Speaker 3: for an outright bet, since second is as good as

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Speaker 3: a last place finish.

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Speaker 2: So just just to set up Nick here because as

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Speaker 2: a as a host, I think nowadays in the podcast world,

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Speaker 2: part of your preparation is to go see if the

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Speaker 2: two of you in particular, are beefing with each other

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Speaker 2: on Twitter and yep I found Spencer said, I just

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Speaker 2: remembered I ran an Open championship model nearly eleven months ago.

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Speaker 2: As I look ahead for potential tickets for Saint Andrews

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Speaker 2: after the last Open finished Web Simpson model ranked number one,

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Speaker 2: Patrick can't lay number two?

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Speaker 1: Is Spencer just laid out?

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Speaker 2: And then appears Ryan Reynolds nick that Ryan Reynolds.

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Speaker 1: Hand in face? Why are you upset?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I just I've been Spencer and I have been

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Speaker 4: going back and forth with web Simpson all your long.

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Speaker 4: I just severely questioned the upside of a guy like

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Speaker 4: Web Simpson. But Spencer does draw a really good, you know,

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Speaker 4: point multiple points for why Web should find success here.

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Speaker 4: His proximities are incredible. He does great in the top

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Speaker 4: twenty inside my model. I do like the price. What'd

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Speaker 4: you say? It was one thirty? I mean that's that's

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Speaker 4: long and six he go to the one sixty one

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Speaker 4: thirty right now in DraftKings. Yep, I'm almost talking myself

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Speaker 4: into taking the ticket. But one thing about Dustin Johnson,

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Speaker 4: that was one of my favorite plays prior to speaking

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Speaker 4: to Spencer too, So I love that he's on him.

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Speaker 4: The forty to one price is great. He did finish

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Speaker 4: top eight last your Brandon, So if that fits the

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Speaker 4: narrative of a top nine finish in winning the event

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Speaker 4: the next year, I am all about Dustin Johnson.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good.

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Speaker 2: How about some other angles besides outrights? You guys attack

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Speaker 2: the board in a variety of ways. When you guys

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Speaker 2: get ready again the Better Golf Podcast, these guys lay

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Speaker 2: out outrights, finishing positions, match up values. If there's a

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Speaker 2: public matchup discussion going on right now, it's that Max

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Speaker 2: Holmer is now in the same group as Tiger Woods,

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Speaker 2: and that's a big, a big moment for him because

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Speaker 2: he like dreamed of that whatever years ago. But when

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Speaker 2: we look at the matchup matchups here for the for

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Speaker 2: the Open Championship, does anything stick out that is actionable?

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Speaker 1: Spencer?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think there's a couple of things. You know,

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Speaker 3: the legal books have done an excellent job of shading

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Speaker 3: matchups and avoiding those prototypical head to heads where they

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Speaker 3: pit two players together that don't belong. That's probably made

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Speaker 3: things a little bit more challenging for us because the

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Speaker 3: value has been sucked out of these boards, but I

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Speaker 3: will start by saying I would heavily look into if

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Speaker 3: you can find Tiger Woods over Bryson to Shamba. That

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Speaker 3: isn't the most common matchup at this moment, but as

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Speaker 3: legal books continue to add more choices, which they will

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Speaker 3: do throughout the week, any plus number on Tiger would

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Speaker 3: be worth a look. In my opinion, Bryson's inability to

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Speaker 3: hit a short iron would worry me when it comes

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Speaker 3: to his chances, and I probably can't think of a

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Speaker 3: better venue for Tiger than Saint Andrew's, especially if we

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Speaker 3: get fairways that are baked down and fast. The short

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Speaker 3: iron numbers have remained elite for Tiger over the years,

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Speaker 3: even if everything else has struggle, and I really wouldn't

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Speaker 3: be shocked if that bet is over by Friday afternoon.

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Speaker 3: But if there's one that I can give that is

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Speaker 3: more on the legal front right now that you can

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Speaker 3: readily find, that would be Tommy Fleetwood minus one eighteen

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Speaker 3: over Turl Hatton at bet MGM. I know the typical

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Speaker 3: belief is that any Link style course will suit Hatton's game,

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Speaker 3: which is partially true with the success he has found

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Speaker 3: on them in the past, but I do have some

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Speaker 3: concerns that the strengths he has in putting and three

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Speaker 3: put avoidance will have to be used more as parse

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Speaker 3: saving mechanisms than actual birdie production chances. Hatten ranks eighty

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Speaker 3: fifth in my model for weighted proximity. The total driving

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Speaker 3: places in fifty fifth and then losing two par fives

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Speaker 3: hurts his seventeenth place grade in my weighted par five

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Speaker 3: category and instead shifts that over to the par four section,

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Speaker 3: where he ranks fifty eighth overall and eighty second when

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Speaker 3: looking at just short par fours. On the other hand,

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Speaker 3: just because we're going to need something positive out of

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Speaker 3: Fleetwood if we want to make this bet, we see

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Speaker 3: an opposite trajectory by him moving from seventy fifth and

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Speaker 3: weighted par five to thirteenth in my weighted par four.

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Speaker 3: The weighted proximity also sees a massive boost because of

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Speaker 3: the greater emphasis placed on short iron production, a total

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Speaker 3: where he moves from an expected output of forty first

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Speaker 3: at a random track to eighteenth when looking specifically at

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Speaker 3: a model that's going to mimic Saint Andrew's.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good. That's good stuff. Nick. How about yourself?

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Speaker 2: When we look elsewhere outside of the outright market, we.

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Speaker 1: Go to match up.

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Speaker 2: Seven some some group play stuff, as Spencer laid out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm looking for a good matchup to pick

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Speaker 4: on Keegan Bradley. That's someone that I'm fading completely this week.

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Speaker 4: I did find a decent number on Keegan Bradley to

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Speaker 4: miss the cut at plus one point fifty on FanDuel.

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Speaker 4: Keegan has had a really good year. He's starting to

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Speaker 4: hit the ball longer and actually starting to make putts,

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Speaker 4: but on slow greens. Despite a very good three putt

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Speaker 4: percentage of three point avoidance, Keegan Bradley has extremely struggled

307
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Speaker 4: on these slow greens and all key proximities one hundred

308
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Speaker 4: yards and in is not his prowess in addition to

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Speaker 4: the around the green play with inside fifty yards. So

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Speaker 4: Keegan Bradley is someone I'm completely fading. Would love to

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Speaker 4: find a better matchup for him where he's maybe a favorite,

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Speaker 4: or even money against someone like a Fleetwood would be great,

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Speaker 4: but Fleetwood seems to be on another planet right now

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Speaker 4: with the sportsbook. Love but Keegan Bradley to miss the

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Speaker 4: cut plus one fifty on FanDuel.

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Speaker 3: I love that also, just to throw it out there.

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Speaker 2: Any other context you'd like to provide as to why

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Speaker 2: you like it, kind of.

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Speaker 3: Just for the reasons that Nick just said right now.

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Speaker 3: So if we look at his Open Championship performances, and

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Speaker 3: it's not something I want to overly look into because

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Speaker 3: Saint Andrews is completely different, but it's bad, it's terrible.

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Speaker 3: It's miscut in twenty twenty one, miscut in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 3: seventy ninth in twenty eighteen, a miscut in twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 3: Specifically at the Saint Andrew's course, he's fifty fourth in

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Speaker 3: my model. Overall, he's sixty ninth from an upside perspective.

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Speaker 3: The safety number places them outside of the top fifty.

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Speaker 3: And then the weighted putting, and we know Keegan Bradley

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Speaker 3: is not a good putter, so this isn't like some

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Speaker 3: groundbreaking thing I'm about to say right now, but he's

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Speaker 3: one hundred and forty fifth in this field when looking

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Speaker 3: specifically there, and as Nick said, Keegan Bradley's a great

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Speaker 3: iron player. The proximity from within one hundred yards sixty

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Speaker 3: fifth in my model. When you look just in general

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Speaker 3: proximity numbers, he's seventh overall So if you're going to

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Speaker 3: tell me that you're going to have to be a

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Speaker 3: really good short iron player, which Keegan hasn't proven to

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Speaker 3: be historically in the past. I think he's one of

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Speaker 3: the better fades. And you know, I keep going back

340
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Speaker 3: to DFS discussions, but at eight to ten percent, he's

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Speaker 3: a very natural fade that you can pivot to somebody like,

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Speaker 3: you know, like a Thomas Peters, and I think you

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Speaker 3: can get more upside and more safety built in with him.

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Speaker 2: Okay, before we wrap things up, we've already talked about

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Speaker 2: some of the outright picks. We'll do one more segment

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Speaker 2: here and then we'll get to best best before we wrap.

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Speaker 2: But how about some top twenty, some top forties, Because

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Speaker 2: historically when we've had both of you on the Action

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Speaker 2: Network podcast Talk and Golf, We've had the Masters pod,

350
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Speaker 2: we had the US Open episode, you guys are all

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Speaker 2: over the top forties, in the top twenties.

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Speaker 1: Why did you go for a spencer? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I will do three on this show today. The other

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Speaker 3: two you can catch over on Links and Locks when

355
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Speaker 3: Nick and I run through our placement wagers for every event.

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Speaker 3: But I will start with Adam Scott Top forty plus

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Speaker 3: one fifty five fan duel that is minus one ten

358
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Speaker 3: on DraftKings. The current metrics are all over the map,

359
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Speaker 3: but it's been more of a boomer Bus production than

360
00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,960
Speaker 3: one part of his game struggling. He gained eight shots

361
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Speaker 3: with his irons at the Memorial and route to a

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Speaker 3: sixty seventh place finish where everything else imploded here in

363
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Speaker 3: four point two combine at the PGA Championship and Byron

364
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Speaker 3: Nelson with the driver when the irons couldn't be positive.

365
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Speaker 3: The short game has been a mess for a while now,

366
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Speaker 3: but the fact that Scott will be able to put

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Speaker 3: from off the surface is a massive boost for his potential.

368
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Speaker 3: We see that with his one hundred and fourteenth place

369
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Speaker 3: mark moving inside the top thirty five when comparing around

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Speaker 3: the green totals to strictly three putt numbers. That is

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Speaker 3: one of the critical factors that can come into play

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Speaker 3: at these large green complexes in general that minimize rough

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Speaker 3: and enhance creativity. Not all the ground the green metrics

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00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,159
Speaker 3: are built equally, so I'm looking for potential options that

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Speaker 3: might struggle around the green but are SUPERBT three pet avoidance.

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Speaker 3: Scott fits that bill to a te I grab Thomas Peters,

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Speaker 3: as I just mentioned a second ago top forty plus

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Speaker 3: one fifty fan duel that is plus one thirty DraftKings.

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Speaker 3: It becomes a redundant answer at some point to keep

380
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Speaker 3: saying all the same stats over and over again. But

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Speaker 3: it just comes down to if I trust the recalculated

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Speaker 3: three putt numbers that I ran, which places him twenty

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Speaker 3: fifth in this field, or the two year sample size

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Speaker 3: on all green complexes where he breaks a one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty second. I'm always gonna trust my dad because

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Speaker 3: it's the only way to try and gain an edge.

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Speaker 3: But Peters feels like an underappreciated version of Ryan Fox,

388
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Speaker 3: where he ranks top twenty five in this field for

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Speaker 3: both distance in short iron proximity, but he's going to

390
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Speaker 3: go under the radar. And then I ended with Russell

391
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Speaker 3: Henley top forty plus two forty on FanDuel plus one

392
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Speaker 3: fifty on DraftKings. Nick is all over Russell Henley himself

393
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Speaker 3: this week, so I don't want to spend too much

394
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Speaker 3: time reiterating all the points that he's I'm sure going

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Speaker 3: to bring up in a second. But there is a

396
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Speaker 3: definite Masters comp that can be looked into Henley. In

397
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 3: his last five attempts at Augusta has produced finishes of thirtieth, fifteenth, eleventh,

398
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Speaker 3: twenty first and thirty first. He ranks eighth in my

399
00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:41,880
Speaker 3: model for way to proximity, fifth in driving accuracy, which

400
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,640
Speaker 3: should help him create some extra rollout on these firm fairways.

401
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:46,439
Speaker 3: And he's also one of the best players in the

402
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,480
Speaker 3: world when we look at these short to medium length

403
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,280
Speaker 3: par four holes. We kind of keep saying it over

404
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,160
Speaker 3: and over again, but I'd ignore the Open Championship form

405
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Speaker 3: for the most part. His appearance in twenty fifteen at

406
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 3: Saint Andrews yielded his best finish ever of twentieth overall,

407
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,480
Speaker 3: and the recent results have been worse than the stats

408
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,120
Speaker 3: he has provided for those showings. I guess the other

409
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,160
Speaker 3: one I will tease just because it's fun to do

410
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 3: and it's gonna get some sort of a conversation going.

411
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Speaker 3: But I kind of like Phil Mickelson at plus three hundred,

412
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Speaker 3: if you're really looking for a hell Mary type of play.

413
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Speaker 1: Okay, Nick, you're gonna explode on that one too. Nickelson

414
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 1: at plus three.

415
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Speaker 3: Hundred, I think he will.

416
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,640
Speaker 4: I think I said about that no comment I pleaded

417
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,280
Speaker 4: the fifth on anything Phil related. I think it's you're

418
00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,399
Speaker 4: better off donating that money to a charity, like I

419
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 4: always like to say. But yeah, just to reiterate, Russell

420
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 4: Henley does show up. Is my favorite bet of the

421
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,320
Speaker 4: week is his top forty on FanDuel at plus two forty.

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00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 4: I believe points Bet has the same number there. He

423
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 4: shows up as number one and expected proximity from fifty

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Speaker 4: to one hundred yards for me. He does hit a

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Speaker 4: ton of fairways, so the lack of distance off the

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Speaker 4: tea is a bit mitigated there. I just love everything

427
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 4: about Russ Henley. You could get him outright on points

428
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,400
Speaker 4: Bet right now at one hundred and seventy five to one.

429
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,239
Speaker 4: I believe that is the longest shot for me on

430
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,639
Speaker 4: the board. I doubt he has the winning equity, but

431
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Speaker 4: like Spencer said last time he play the track is

432
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Speaker 4: a top twenty finish and he is a much butter

433
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 4: player now than he was back then. The form's not

434
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,919
Speaker 4: really there, but I think this number proper should be

435
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,720
Speaker 4: right around plus one fifty plus one seventy five at

436
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:13,679
Speaker 4: the longest. So the books are kind of just taking

437
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 4: the recent struggles of Russell Henley and really inflating that number.

438
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 4: But Sam Burns was a favorite play for me in

439
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 4: the top forty market FanDuel laid minus one oh five.

440
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 4: It's down to minus one thirty five now, so I

441
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,040
Speaker 4: don't really want to recommend you chasing that number. But

442
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 4: I absolutely love what Spencer said about Thomas Peters trying

443
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,960
Speaker 4: to find a more European style player. So I took

444
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 4: adri Arnas top forty on FanDuel plus two forty. He's

445
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 4: a long hitter, his proximity is grade very strongly for me,

446
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 4: and he's a good slow putter putter on slow greens,

447
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 4: I should say decent form. But other than that, I

448
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 4: think the only other sprinkle for me is going to

449
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:52,400
Speaker 4: be buying low on Hadeki Matsuyama. Top thirty on FanDuel

450
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 4: is plus one thirty. I believe that number should be

451
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 4: closer to even money, and then I guess I have

452
00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 4: one more sprinkle is buying low on Cami. This guy

453
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,040
Speaker 4: was minus one fifty to minus one seventy five to

454
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 4: finish top forty and any book tournament that he played

455
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 4: in the past couple months on FanDuel. That number is

456
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 4: now plus one forty. He's a guy that's excellent in

457
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 4: Windy hits the ball a mile, his proximities within one

458
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 4: hundred yards are incredible, and he's very successful and putting

459
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 4: on slow greens from the short career that we have

460
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 4: data on. But I think buying low on Cam Young

461
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 4: when the market went the other way is something I'm

462
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:24,879
Speaker 4: very interested in.

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00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 1: The co hosts of Better Golf Pod.

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Speaker 2: That's where you can find the guys on Twitter Better

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00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 2: Golf Podcast at Better Golf Pod. Spencer Agyar the twenty

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00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 2: twenty one FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. May I

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00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 2: add and also sticks picks on the Twitter machine. Nick

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00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 2: Brettwish also does a great job. This is the Action

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Speaker 2: Network Podcast and beyond the Lookout. Speaking of Action Network Podcast,

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00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 2: we also have Links and Locks. You guys will be

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00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 2: appearing this week for Spencer Agyar, Nick Brettwish, Brendan Glasheen.

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00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning into the Action Network Podcast. Join us

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00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,880
Speaker 2: every Friday for UF see on the Action Network Podcast.

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00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 2: And now that's what we have coming up for you

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00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 2: as the summer continues. Good luck this week everybody. Be

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00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 2: sure to catch the guys on Links and Locks and

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Speaker 2: we'll join you next time.