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Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty seven since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic.

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Speaker 1: Today's main story. The risk of COVID nineteen transmission is

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Speaker 1: high on college campuses, where students live in close quarters

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Speaker 1: and may avoid following social distancing rules. But one upstate

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Speaker 1: New York University has stayed open and managed to control

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Speaker 1: its COVID cases. But first, here's what happened in Virus

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Speaker 1: News Today. Infections in the US increased by one point

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Speaker 1: three percent on Friday, with Iowa, North Dakota, Michigan, and

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Speaker 1: Colorado seeing the biggest single day rises. That's according to

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Speaker 1: data compiled by Johns Hopkins University and Bloomberg News. Yesterday,

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Speaker 1: new cases passed a hundred and twenty six thousand, a

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Speaker 1: global record for a single nation. Johnson and Johnson is

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Speaker 1: about to start clinical trials of its COVID nineteen vaccine

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Speaker 1: in South Africa after getting regulatory approval, according to the

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Speaker 1: co chair of the study in the country. Meanwhile, scientists

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Speaker 1: monitoring wastewater in one region of the country detected spikes

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Speaker 1: of the coronavirus in the last three weeks. The government

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Speaker 1: is concerned that a lack of compliance with health guidelines

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Speaker 1: may trigger a second wave. Finally, France posted a record

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Speaker 1: number of new virus cases as the nation's health minister,

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Speaker 1: Olivier Veron warned that a violent second wave of the

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Speaker 1: illness is sweeping the country. He said virus patients now

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Speaker 1: occupy more than eighty five percent of French hospitals initial

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Speaker 1: intensive care facilities. Europe is battling a new surge in

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Speaker 1: the IRS, with France starting a second lockdown just last

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Speaker 1: week and now for today's main story, Cornell University in

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Speaker 1: upstate New York welcomed around twenty four thousand people back

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Speaker 1: to campus this fall. The idea of students packed into

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Speaker 1: dorms and mingling in classrooms made many people nervous, But

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Speaker 1: while outbreaks have plagued colleges across the country, Cornell has

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Speaker 1: managed to keep a lid on its COVID cases. In fact,

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Speaker 1: the college's test positivity rate has been among the lowest

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Speaker 1: of any college or university in the country doing large

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Speaker 1: scale testing. I spoke with reporter and a court, an

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Speaker 1: alumna of Cornell about how the school has done it.

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Speaker 1: You know the story with so many colleges and universities

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Speaker 1: around the US for the full term has either been

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Speaker 1: one of online or distance learning, and many of the

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Speaker 1: stories we even have heard about students on campus has

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Speaker 1: been pretty negative news UM with outbreaks and the spread

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Speaker 1: of COVID, but not Cornell. And I was wondering if

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Speaker 1: you might just unpack what what happened at Cornell to

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Speaker 1: make it this success story. Yeah, so I would know.

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Speaker 1: Cornell isn't the only school that has been able to

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Speaker 1: keep cases very low, but it's what's significant is what

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Speaker 1: a big school it is. Cornell reopened its campus about

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Speaker 1: two thousand people in the late summer, and really what

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Speaker 1: they did was kind of take all the public health

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Speaker 1: measures that are recommended, and in fact, they say that

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Speaker 1: their experience is a testament to the fact that the

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Speaker 1: things that we've been talking to about throughout this whole pandemic,

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Speaker 1: from you know, frequent testing all the way to to

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Speaker 1: mask wearing and handwashing that they work. Most significant about

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Speaker 1: what Cornell did, I would say is that frequent testing.

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Speaker 1: They're testing about thirty five thousand students, faculty and staff

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Speaker 1: a week. Undergrads are tested as frequently as twice a week.

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Speaker 1: Uh and that they say that has helped them find

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Speaker 1: these people who could be you know, asymptomatic silent spreaders

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Speaker 1: of the virus and and really tamped down on that

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Speaker 1: spread and you know, isolate people and prevent further infections

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Speaker 1: on campus. Another thing that they really cite for their

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Speaker 1: success has been sort of a souped up version of

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Speaker 1: of contact tracing. They do something called that they call

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Speaker 1: adaptive testing, which is instead of sort of adhering to

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Speaker 1: the strict definition of a of a contact. You know,

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Speaker 1: there are different definitions for contact tracing, but in New

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Speaker 1: York State, it's someone who's been within six ft of

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Speaker 1: someone who had a confirmed COVID nineteen infection for about

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Speaker 1: ten minutes. So they did something a little bit more

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Speaker 1: expanse of They did do contact tracing, but they also

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Speaker 1: did this thing where they looked at people who might

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Speaker 1: have been exposed but weren't technically close contact. So if

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Speaker 1: you're living on a dorm floor and you turn out

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Speaker 1: to have COVID nineteen, they might test everyone on that

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Speaker 1: floor because you're all sharing a bathroom. If you're on

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Speaker 1: a hockey team, maybe you weren't technically within six ft

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Speaker 1: of someone for ten minutes, but you know, you're likely

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Speaker 1: spending time around them and maybe you could be infected,

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Speaker 1: so maybe you test the whole hockey team. So they say,

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Speaker 1: this is something that kind of goes above and beyond

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Speaker 1: the call of duty and you know, help them basically

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Speaker 1: locked down the chains of transmission on campus. I was

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Speaker 1: wondering if you might go into just actually how low

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Speaker 1: the infection rate has been on campus. And I mean,

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Speaker 1: among those few infections that Cornell has seen, where are

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Speaker 1: we seeing transmission coming from. Is this something that students

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Speaker 1: are being exposed in the classroom or or is it

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Speaker 1: coming really from somewhere else. Just to start off with,

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Speaker 1: I just pulled up Cornell's COVID dashboard and right now

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Speaker 1: their positivity rate is point zero four percent, so you know,

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Speaker 1: point zero four percent of their test return positive. That's

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Speaker 1: really good. And in a recent week, a couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks ago, it was actually as low as point zero

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Speaker 1: zero six percent, So they were joking that they would

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Speaker 1: have to add another, you know, decimal place to the

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Speaker 1: online dashboard. Um, it was so low. You know, if

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Speaker 1: you look at how many cases they've had since they reopened,

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Speaker 1: it's been about hundred and seventy one cases from mid

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Speaker 1: August to basically now through November four. That's really significant

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Speaker 1: because that is very low, and they do have a

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Speaker 1: lot of people, you know, thousand people on campus. You know,

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Speaker 1: things didn't look like they were going to go quite

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Speaker 1: this way when I first started my reporting, though, you know,

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Speaker 1: I talked to a lot of people in August before

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Speaker 1: campus reopened, and the plan was constantly changing. There was

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Speaker 1: a lot of anxiety among people in the unity, you know, students,

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Speaker 1: their parents, faculty members, because it looked like a big

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Speaker 1: risk that Cornell was taking. They were bringing all these

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Speaker 1: people to upstate New York, you know, at the time

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Speaker 1: had been very much untouched by COVID nineteen. It was

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Speaker 1: very you know, rates were very low, and so it

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Speaker 1: seemed like things could go pretty awry. And in fact,

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Speaker 1: you know, as students were coming back to campus, there

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Speaker 1: was an early cluster of cases on campus that really

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Speaker 1: raised a lot of alarm bells, you know, which was

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Speaker 1: actually tied to student athletes socializing without the proper you know,

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Speaker 1: social distancing and mask wearing. Um but you know, Cornell

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Speaker 1: again really credits this aggressive testing and and contact tracing

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Speaker 1: to helping kind of stand that chain of transmission. And

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Speaker 1: in fact, you know, they did a lot of interesting

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Speaker 1: modeling around how infection good spread around campus, really plotting

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Speaker 1: out a lot of different scenarios. That's actually how they

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Speaker 1: ended up doing so much testing. They realized they needed

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Speaker 1: to in order to keep infection low, and they set

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Speaker 1: out a couple of different scenarios for how you know,

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Speaker 1: infections could spread. And the actual cases on campus have

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Speaker 1: actually stayed so low that they've been far lower than

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Speaker 1: even the most optimistic scenario, which I think is is

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Speaker 1: really a testament to to what they've done. And you know,

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Speaker 1: you've mentioned a lot of this plan, um, and and

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Speaker 1: perhaps their success does revolve around the amount of testing

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Speaker 1: that's going on, and and that's quite a significant amount

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Speaker 1: of testing. I was just curious how is the university

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Speaker 1: handling this this amount of regular testing. Cornell actually set

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Speaker 1: up a new lab in its veterinary school to do

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Speaker 1: human testing. Interestingly, a number of colleges and universities have

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Speaker 1: actually done this because um, this mode of you know,

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Speaker 1: the common mode of COVID nineteen testing is is something

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Speaker 1: called polymaries chain reaction tests, and they're actually often you

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Speaker 1: to look for disease and animals UM. The big thing

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Speaker 1: that they did, and other colleges have done this too,

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Speaker 1: is that they did something called pooling, where you put

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Speaker 1: multiple samples together um and process them at the same time.

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Speaker 1: This is something that works actually best when you don't

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Speaker 1: have a lot of infection on campus, as Cornell has.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's important to note that this has been

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Speaker 1: a big push for Cornell, and they're running their lab

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Speaker 1: you know, practically seven and and it's been difficult. You know,

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Speaker 1: they set up all these centers around campus for people

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Speaker 1: to get their samples collected. You know, it's a it's

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Speaker 1: a nasal swab, and it's something that you know, took

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Speaker 1: up a lot of their resources, but also you know

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Speaker 1: a lot of participation from the community to go in

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Speaker 1: and get tested so frequently. And you've raised a really

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Speaker 1: important point. I think that many other colleges and universities

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Speaker 1: might be looking to Cornell's policy because, I mean, in

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Speaker 1: all honesty, Cornell has been able to welcome students back,

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Speaker 1: They've been able to collect, particularly from the financial angle

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Speaker 1: room and board rents from the students that are back

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Speaker 1: on campus. Is this something that perhaps other college campuses

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Speaker 1: other universities can look to Cornell as perhaps a model

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Speaker 1: for how they can apply this policy on their own campuses.

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Speaker 1: You know, a lot of cynics and skeptics when colleges

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Speaker 1: said that they were going to reopen, pointed to the

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Speaker 1: fact that college has had a real financial incentive to reopen.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's hard to justify charging a lot of

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Speaker 1: tuition when your students are basically, you know, at home,

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Speaker 1: living with their parents, you know, taking classes online. I

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Speaker 1: think for Cornell what's important to note is that they

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Speaker 1: did have advantages and they and they acknowledge those advantages.

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Speaker 1: You know, from the fact that Ithaca is a pretty

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Speaker 1: remote location. Ithaca when you're driving up is really a

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Speaker 1: lot of cows and fields. So you know, that's an

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Speaker 1: advance Didge because you don't have a lot of people

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Speaker 1: coming and going from other places where they can bring

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Speaker 1: the virus. Although Cornell has had people bring the virus

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Speaker 1: that way to campus and they've found it using that testing.

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Speaker 1: And there are other advantages just conferred by their you know,

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Speaker 1: financial and scientific resources that are important to note and

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Speaker 1: and again might be hard for other schools to replicate,

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Speaker 1: particularly if they don't you know, have these kinds of resources.

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Speaker 1: And I mean here we are. It's early November, but

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Speaker 1: the end of the fall semester is in sight. Students

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Speaker 1: are about to leave to to go on holiday, to

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Speaker 1: go back to their family and friends all over the

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Speaker 1: US and the world. Is this going to affect Cornell's

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Speaker 1: plan for the spring or is this fall scenario what

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Speaker 1: Cornell is expecting to adopt in the spring. Yeah, Cornell

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Speaker 1: is planning US spring semester, you know in person. You know,

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Speaker 1: they're hoping to bring even more students back this time,

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Speaker 1: hoping to do more classes in person um and they

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Speaker 1: have a lot more time to plan now than they

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Speaker 1: did last time. A lot of things were really quickly

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Speaker 1: changing right before the semester began um, including you know,

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Speaker 1: a lot of students were coming from states that had

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Speaker 1: been put on New York State's quarantine list, and so

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Speaker 1: that made it very difficult logistically for everyone to come back.

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Speaker 1: I think it's important to think about also how things

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Speaker 1: will be different in the spring semester. You know, they're

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Speaker 1: planning on starting classes in February. You know, the weather

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Speaker 1: in February and Ithaca can be quite cold, and as

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Speaker 1: we all know, winter could be a real time of

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Speaker 1: spreading COVID because of those cold temperatures, bringing people to

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Speaker 1: gather inside more where they could you know, are more

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Speaker 1: likely also to spread the virus. So you know, it's

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Speaker 1: going to bring a new slate of challenges for Cornell.

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Speaker 1: And in fact, right now the university is already seeing

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Speaker 1: um infection rates in surrounding communities on the rise. And

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Speaker 1: so it kind of went from the situation where the

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Speaker 1: community was worried about Cornell bringing COVID to their backyards

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Speaker 1: and now Cornell is is starting to warily look at

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Speaker 1: the community and say, maybe people are going to get sick,

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Speaker 1: you know, in our surrounding areas, and they've they've started

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Speaker 1: to see some of that already. That was Emma Corp.

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Speaker 1: And that's it for our show today. For coverage of

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Speaker 1: the outbreak from one and twenty bureaus around the world,

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Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like

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Speaker 1: the show, please leave us a review and a rating

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to

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Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily

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Speaker 1: edition is produced by Topha Foreheads, Jordan gas Pure, Magnus

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Speaker 1: Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported

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Speaker 1: by Emma Corp. Original music by Leo sidrin Our. Editors

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Speaker 1: are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's

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Speaker 1: head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.