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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Melman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We are continuing. We're in the final countdown of our

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Speaker 1: Division previews series. We're coming down to the end. We

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Speaker 1: have an amazing, brilliant, popular original guest with us today

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Speaker 1: to talk about the AFC East. I will bring them

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Speaker 1: on in a moment after I bring on my co host,

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter Edo.

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Speaker 2: So I'm in Hello Chad, good to be here, my guy.

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Speaker 2: Definitely definitely want to say off the top, thank you

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Speaker 2: to everyone that reached out about life and matter donated

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Speaker 2: to MAUI meant a lot to me and it's just

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Speaker 2: nice to have so many fans of our show actually care.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, still still in MAUI heading back East next

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Speaker 2: or I guess this week now before the season starts.

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Speaker 2: But I would say from where we were at two

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Speaker 2: weeks ago to we are now, Chad, life is much

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Speaker 2: better and more common MAUI. So thank you to everyone

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Speaker 2: that made donations. It really did mean a lot to

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Speaker 2: me and the people of MAUI. I mean, they need

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Speaker 2: it right now more than any anyone could even imagine.

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Speaker 2: So thanks again to everyone.

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Speaker 1: You know what I find simon gamblers, they live by

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Speaker 1: a very different code. I mean this in all seriousness,

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Speaker 1: and they have their hearts in the right place.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. I would say it was shocking to know

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Speaker 2: so many people care, just because at the time we

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Speaker 2: did the show, it was really before the mainstream media

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Speaker 2: kind of got onto what was happening here in Mala.

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Speaker 2: So just seeing how many people just reached out and

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Speaker 2: donate it was just incredible. I know, I know our

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Speaker 2: show is kind of big, but I didn't realize how

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Speaker 2: big it really was until I really saw how many

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Speaker 2: people had donated. It was. It was in the thousand,

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Speaker 2: so pretty amazing all you guys donating it. It really

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Speaker 2: was something special.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of big shows, our guests, who I'm going to

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Speaker 1: bring on in a second, also has a massive, massive

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Speaker 1: betting podcast and a massive, massive Twitter following. He is

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Speaker 1: one of the most popular personalities in gambling, and I'll

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Speaker 1: bring him on in a second as a reminder, the

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Speaker 1: favorite podcast is probably presented by bet three S's five

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Speaker 1: Gambling Problem call or text one eight hundred Gambler. As

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Speaker 1: a reminder, starting right now, I'm doing this because I've

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Speaker 1: been told to do it and i want you to

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Speaker 1: do it. You can catch every episode of the Favorites

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Speaker 1: live on YouTube. Don't forget to like and subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Another reminder, I've said it,

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Speaker 1: We're doing a contest, big, big prize money coming our way.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna tease it a little bit more. I will

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Speaker 1: tell everybody how to sign up. It's going to be exciting.

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Speaker 1: We will start doing the podcast Sunday Nights live on

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Speaker 1: the first Sunday of the NFL season. Then we're Tuesday

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Speaker 1: Thursday Sunday for the rest of the year. Also one

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Speaker 1: other reminder, Chris Raybon, Stucky, Brandon Anderson, and the whole

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Speaker 1: Action Network podcast team has returned with their full lineup

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Speaker 1: of NFL episodes leading up to Week one We have

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Speaker 1: our AFC betting previews up now with NFC up next.

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Speaker 1: Lots more good stuff, folks, and Simon and I were

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Speaker 1: just talking about this yesterday. If you were not reading

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson in the Action Network app or on actionetwork

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Speaker 1: dot com, you are missing out offensive line rankings today

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Speaker 1: or last night. He went up with the best offenses

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. It is so good and so smart.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of surprise, a lot of really good

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Speaker 1: analysis in there. You know what I'm gonna do right now.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the AFC East, which I think

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Speaker 1: might be one of the most hyped and most interesting

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Speaker 1: divisions in football, and it's appropriate to discuss that we

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Speaker 1: have one of the most interesting men in sports betting media,

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Speaker 1: Warren Shappello.

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Speaker 3: Warren, Hey, guys, I don't get the like the uh,

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Speaker 3: you know, the voice interjection with when you introduce Simon

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Speaker 3: with the British accent, you know, but I do appreciate

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Speaker 3: the welcome chat. It's been a long time, But enjoy

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Speaker 3: all of you guys content over there at the Action Network,

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Speaker 3: and certainly you guys have a great podcast.

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Speaker 1: Look, Warren's great and if you have not checked out

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Speaker 1: Warren's Sharp Football Analysis NFL preview book, which Simon and

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Speaker 1: I have talked about with rich Riebar, who is a

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Speaker 1: contributor to Sharp Football Analysis, which is Warren's website. He's

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Speaker 1: a contributor to the book. Warren also does a betting

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Speaker 1: podcast on The Ringer, which is fantastic. He does it

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Speaker 1: with House, who I love, but Warren, we had rich

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Speaker 1: On we talked about the book. Give people a little

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Speaker 1: bit of background about how long you've been doing this book,

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Speaker 1: because it is it is as comprehensive a preview book

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Speaker 1: as it is for the NFL. It has blown all

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Speaker 1: the other preview books out of the water.

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Speaker 3: Really started turning into it probably like five years ago,

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Speaker 3: I would say, when I got my hands on more

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Speaker 3: of the play by played data and I really was

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Speaker 3: trying to uncover different ways to attack the league that

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Speaker 3: wasn't being talked about enough in my opinion. Now it's ballooned.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's like five hundred and thirty two pages.

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Speaker 3: Right now, this thing is like a phone book, literally,

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Speaker 3: but we break down all thirty two teams. There's stuff

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Speaker 3: for fantasy, there's stuff for betting, and basically what I

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Speaker 3: try to do is give you a quick way to

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Speaker 3: process why this team had its record that they did

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Speaker 3: last year, because I am a firm believer in that

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Speaker 3: the Bill Parcells ism you are what your record says

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Speaker 3: you are is complete wrong, and that there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of reasons why a team might have had a record

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Speaker 3: they did. We have to undercover the real backbone of

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Speaker 3: what this team is. Then what pieces did they lose coaches, players,

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Speaker 3: What pieces did they gain coaches players between last year

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Speaker 3: and this year, and then try to come up with

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Speaker 3: what the projections are for them for this upcoming season.

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Speaker 3: And so right now, I know that some people listening

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Speaker 3: might say, one hundred and thirty two pages, how am

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Speaker 3: I going to digest this? There's two weeks till the

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Speaker 3: start of the season. Well, for that reason, for only

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Speaker 3: four dollars ninety nine cents, you can get it now

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Speaker 3: at the website. Just go to sharp dot football and

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Speaker 3: use the code action just for you guys in your podcast.

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Speaker 3: Anybody wants to get it, you can get it for

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Speaker 3: less than five dollars. It's a great way to spend

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Speaker 3: a couple bucks before the season starts.

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Speaker 1: Couldn't agree more. I love that we're ripping legendary coaches

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Speaker 1: where pimp and football previews. I mean, we are going

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Speaker 1: full bore on the pot. We're making Matt Mitchell nervous.

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Speaker 1: His head is sweating in a basement in Milwaukee right now.

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Speaker 1: That's all you need to know. When Rich was on

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Speaker 1: Warren a few weeks ago, we talked about the stat

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Speaker 1: that you've sort of created, and that speaks to this threat,

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Speaker 1: the strength of schedule as it relates to rest for

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Speaker 1: your opponents and yourself and preparation for your opponents and

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Speaker 1: for yourself. Explain how you came up with that stat,

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Speaker 1: because today, while we've got you on the podcast, you know,

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Speaker 1: as we've been going through these previews, Simon and I

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Speaker 1: we've talked about strength of schedule. We've talked about the

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Speaker 1: components of a team we think are most important, as

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Speaker 1: we're trying to lay out where we think the best

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Speaker 1: opportunities for betting are. This is something very specific, and

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Speaker 1: I'm going to ask Simon sort of how he thinks

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Speaker 1: about this, because I know he was impressed by it.

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Speaker 1: How did you come up with this stat? Explain to

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Speaker 1: people what it is.

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Speaker 3: Well, there's a big difference between the strength of schedule,

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Speaker 3: which is what the league gives you. Most of it's

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Speaker 3: known well in advance because they rotate divisions and we

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Speaker 3: know what the game plan is years ahead. A couple

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Speaker 3: games are based upon where you finished last year, and

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Speaker 3: we know who you're going to play, you know, the

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Speaker 3: moment the last second ticks off the clock week eighteen.

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Speaker 3: But what we don't know is when you're going to

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Speaker 3: play those teams, and that is a big factor, and

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Speaker 3: we don't know that until mid May when the NFL

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Speaker 3: roll out their schedule, and the difference between what they

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Speaker 3: do there in mid May and what we know after

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Speaker 3: Week eighteen is that Week eighteen that ends. The NFL

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Speaker 3: can't control who you're going to play, but the NFL

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Speaker 3: has complete control over when you're going to play these teams,

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Speaker 3: and more importantly, beyond just when. It's how much rest

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Speaker 3: advantage do you have or how much rest advantage does

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Speaker 3: your opponent have? And they're big factors, especially later on

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Speaker 3: in the season. And I started diving into this a

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Speaker 3: little bit because I realized that, you know, I look

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Speaker 3: for areas that I don't think enough discussion is occurring

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Speaker 3: with regard to those, and I try to capitalize on

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Speaker 3: that to look for value. And what I uncovered is

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Speaker 3: that there is a meaningful value both in ats, particularly

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Speaker 3: later on in the season, as well as season win

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Speaker 3: totals based upon your rest disparity versus your opponents and

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Speaker 3: the accumulation of that over the course of the season. So,

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Speaker 3: for example, you know you play a game on a

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Speaker 3: Thursday night, your opponent plays a game on a Monday night.

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Speaker 3: You are going to have an edge there of several

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Speaker 3: days to get ready for your next game, whether that's

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Speaker 3: on a Sunday or you know, the next Monday night.

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Speaker 3: In either case, you've got an edge. Some cases, your

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Speaker 3: opponent might have might have a disadvantage less than a week,

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Speaker 3: and now your edge is even more pronounced. Some cases,

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Speaker 3: the NFL schedules your opponent to have a bye week

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Speaker 3: the same time as your bye week, So while you

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Speaker 3: don't have a disadvantage, you don't gain the edge that

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Speaker 3: you might have otherwise had by having that bye week

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Speaker 3: and that extra time to rest and prepare for your opponent.

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Speaker 3: And so I've dug into that it takes a couple

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Speaker 3: of days really well maybe like a full night to

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Speaker 3: really process the information as soon as the schedule is announced,

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Speaker 3: and then I write an article and then I start

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Speaker 3: using it actually to bet some of the games because

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Speaker 3: Dodds makers come out with their you know, weeks two

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Speaker 3: to eighteen lines like the very next day as quickly

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Speaker 3: as they possibly can get them out, because it's obviously

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Speaker 3: profit to get those numbers out, to get people into

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Speaker 3: your book, open up accounts and start betting. But there's

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Speaker 3: no way possible that they're factoring in some of these

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Speaker 3: rest edges. And I can just tell you. I mean,

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Speaker 3: since twenty fifteen, teams with three or more day rest

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Speaker 3: advantage after week thirteen have won fifty five percent of

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Speaker 3: the games covered ats fifty five point seven. That's over

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Speaker 3: one hundred game sample. So we're not talking like just

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Speaker 3: twenty games here, thirty games here. We are talking one

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Speaker 3: hundred games. It's not as meaningful as you know, a

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Speaker 3: thousand games, but it still is important to look at

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Speaker 3: and factor in. And fifty five point seven assignment will

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Speaker 3: tell you is a really good rate if you're doing

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Speaker 3: nothing and factoring nothing in but rest. And by the

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Speaker 3: time you get to the start of those games, you

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Speaker 3: know rest is understood. But weeks out, you know, months

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Speaker 3: out in advance, you know the odds makers aren't really

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Speaker 3: calculating or factoring in rest, and so I think it's

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Speaker 3: important to understand that and use it as a factor.

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Speaker 3: You know, I would never advocate just taking this fifty

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Speaker 3: five point seven, even though it's a good percentage and

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Speaker 3: you can you know, make money, solid money just betting

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Speaker 3: nothing but that, I would never really advocate doing nothing,

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Speaker 3: no handicapping at all, butt betting rest or butt betting

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Speaker 3: strength as schedule, but it's absolutely something that you should

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Speaker 3: be factoring into your calculus. And in the book, every

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Speaker 3: single team, I list out their schedule and how many

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Speaker 3: days of a rest advantage they have over their opponent,

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Speaker 3: and then I also show tumulative you know, over the

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Speaker 3: entire season.

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Speaker 1: Simon, what impressed you about this that went to a

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Speaker 1: level you hadn't seen before?

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Speaker 2: I would say, especially when it came onto the market.

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Speaker 2: People don't unders say how big of a deal it

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Speaker 2: is that these teams have many bye weeks later in

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Speaker 2: the season compared to other teams are playing against. Like,

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Speaker 2: to me, that's a huge deal. Where all these players

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Speaker 2: talk about it, I mean everyone's beat up, especially after

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Speaker 2: Week ten, Week eleven, everyone's got injuries. Those little mini

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Speaker 2: bye weeks are a big deal, especially when you're betting

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Speaker 2: teams futures, long term bets. So I look at all

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Speaker 2: that stuff, especially certain teams that I mean good examples

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Speaker 2: of the Jets. The Jets have been a dumpster fire

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Speaker 2: ever since Sanchez and the Rex Ryan air, so they

238
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Speaker 2: have not been in primetime games. Now if you look

239
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Speaker 2: at their schedule, I think they have four or five

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Speaker 2: primetime games. It's a upcoming season. That's a big deal. Right.

241
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Speaker 2: That means they have shorter weeks, especially if they're playing

242
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Speaker 2: on a Sunday night or a Monday night compared to

243
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Speaker 2: the teams they're playing against those upcoming weeks. So you know,

244
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Speaker 2: Warren was definitely ahead of the market in this sense,

245
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Speaker 2: and I think you talked about it where you just

246
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Speaker 2: want to blindly just bet it because the books are

247
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Speaker 2: eventually going to catch up to some of this stuff, right,

248
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Speaker 2: they have this information we have that Warren's nice enough

249
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Speaker 2: to give to us, where the books are going to

250
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Speaker 2: use that stuff, and they're gonna use it against the public.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's just what they do. So to me,

252
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Speaker 2: it's I feel like he nailed it where it's not

253
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Speaker 2: the end all be all right, It's not you're not

254
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Speaker 2: going to blindly bet this one statistic, but when you're

255
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Speaker 2: using a bunch of different stuff, it's a great tool

256
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Speaker 2: to use. And that's why, you know, when people ask

257
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Speaker 2: me about it, I always say I love, especially when

258
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Speaker 2: the book comes out. I love looking at the different

259
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Speaker 2: teams and how it's set up for them schedule wise,

260
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Speaker 2: because it sounds crazy, but it's a huge edge where

261
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Speaker 2: last I mean, we were all over the Eagles chat.

262
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Speaker 2: I mean, how long did we talk about Egles being

263
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Speaker 2: the number one seed being the best in the NFC.

264
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Speaker 2: If you go back and you look, Warren was on

265
00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:10,679
Speaker 2: was on it ahead of time about their scheduling. They

266
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Speaker 2: had an easy schedule because they're playing so many inexperienced

267
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Speaker 2: quarterbacks and they had good rest disparity where they're playing

268
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Speaker 2: teams that you know they weren't coming off buys for

269
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Speaker 2: this year. I think the Eagles have a run where

270
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Speaker 2: they play five teams coming off of bye. It's something

271
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Speaker 2: crazy like that, where that doesn't sound like like that's

272
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Speaker 2: that big of a deal, but it is. When you're

273
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Speaker 2: giving these coaches an extra week to prepare for this offense.

274
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Speaker 2: So again that's it's not the NLLB all stat but

275
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Speaker 2: it is something I'm obsessive of looking at just because

276
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Speaker 2: it's a big deal when you factor into the season

277
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Speaker 2: long odd betting, that stuff we'd like to bet on.

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Speaker 1: Hi, Well, listen, we're going to talk about it today

279
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Speaker 1: with the AFC East, assuming that's the conference we're doing

280
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Speaker 1: or the division we're doing, and we're probably gonna, you know,

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about it going forward. I think

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Speaker 1: it's a fascinating stat. Let me remind you, Simon and Warren. Nine.

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Speaker 1: This is from Evan Abrams, our senior research or our

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Speaker 1: head of research, crack researcher. Nine of the last ten

285
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl champions have been listed at plus twelve hundred

286
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Speaker 1: or shorter to win it all in the preseason, so

287
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Speaker 1: twelve to one or less. Right this year, right now,

288
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Speaker 1: there is a team from the AFC East that is

289
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Speaker 1: listed at twelve to one or less. That is the

290
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Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. They're plus eight fifties, so eight and a

291
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Speaker 1: half to one at bet three sixty five for the record,

292
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Speaker 1: And this is an example of overhype knocking on the door.

293
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Speaker 1: The New York Jets at fourteen to one. We're going

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Speaker 1: to get into all these teams people all of these teams.

295
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Speaker 1: I think we got to start with the Buffalo Bills.

296
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Speaker 1: Let's start at number one, right, So right now, their

297
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Speaker 1: win total is ten and a half, the over is

298
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Speaker 1: minus one fifty there plus one twenty to win the division.

299
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Speaker 1: As I said, their plus eight fifty to win the

300
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, per Sean Kerner. So in the same way

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Speaker 1: that Warren takes a different look at strength to schedule,

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Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, who I've been referencing for his strength of

303
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Speaker 1: schedule stats in all the preview podcasts, has the Bills

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Speaker 1: as having the sixth hardest schedule, and I will say

305
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Speaker 1: he has the AFCUT AFC East is having the hardest

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Speaker 1: schedule in the NFL. And Sean also does this dynamically,

307
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Speaker 1: like he is updating it based on rosters. It is

308
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Speaker 1: not a set it and forget it by what we

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Speaker 1: see in May. It is changing dynamically. On I'll start

310
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Speaker 1: with you, anything appetizing to you ten and a half

311
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Speaker 1: over under plus one twenty to win the division, plus

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Speaker 1: eight fifty to win the Super Bowl. Is there anything

313
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Speaker 1: there that is appetizing to you?

314
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Speaker 3: Well, quite simply no. But I wanted to fade the Bills.

315
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,320
Speaker 3: I really came into the season trying to find a

316
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Speaker 3: reason to fade the Bills this year, and I know

317
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Speaker 3: Matt Mitchell is not going to like hearing that, but

318
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Speaker 3: because I know he's a big Buffalo Bills fan.

319
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Speaker 1: The Bills make me one.

320
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Speaker 3: Last year I advocated not betting the Bills before the

321
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:06,159
Speaker 3: season and jumping on them later this year. If you

322
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:07,760
Speaker 3: are going to bet them, you probably do want to

323
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Speaker 3: bet them earlier because their schedule is a little bit

324
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Speaker 3: more difficult down the stretch. But I could not chad

325
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,480
Speaker 3: find any value in going under ten and a half

326
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Speaker 3: because I don't like the worst case scenario. And if

327
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Speaker 3: you say, if your quarterback gets injured, and we know

328
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Speaker 3: how much Josh Allen means to this team, I don't

329
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Speaker 3: like playing that game because then you might as well

330
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Speaker 3: play it for all thirty two teams. So I'm trying

331
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Speaker 3: not to say if your quarterback gets injured. There's not

332
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Speaker 3: really any scenario that I can see where the Bills

333
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,080
Speaker 3: are winning fewer than nine games this year, and this

334
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:43,119
Speaker 3: is still an elite team, it's still a sound team,

335
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,159
Speaker 3: and they're only at ten and a half, and so

336
00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:49,200
Speaker 3: I don't see enough value going under. But they do

337
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 3: as you kind of alluded to play a ridiculously difficult schedule,

338
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Speaker 3: especially down the stretch. And when we look back and

339
00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 3: look at what they did last year and all those

340
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Speaker 3: wins they rattled off late in the season off of

341
00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,800
Speaker 3: the Skyler Thompson's and the mac Jones and the Kobe

342
00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 3: Burssetts and the Joe Flaccos and the you know, justin

343
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 3: fields like all those wins, You're not going up against

344
00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,359
Speaker 3: a brutal schedule this year, where from Week nine on,

345
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:18,400
Speaker 3: where you're playing Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes,

346
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:21,639
Speaker 3: Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and then you do off your

347
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,119
Speaker 3: mac Jones, a game against TUA and a game against

348
00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:28,399
Speaker 3: russ It's just a much more difficult schedule. I'm just

349
00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 3: a little leery about McDermott, but I'll toss it back

350
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:34,640
Speaker 3: to you. You know, from a value perspective, I don't

351
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,880
Speaker 3: see a lot for the Bills, Diamond.

352
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Speaker 2: I was there with Warren last year. I just I

353
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,399
Speaker 2: faded the Bills in every way I could because I

354
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 2: couldn't go with the fact that they were the number

355
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,760
Speaker 2: one team right to be the Super Bowl favorite like

356
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 2: that would to me was last season was the definition

357
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Speaker 2: of an overreaction to the previous season.

358
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Speaker 1: Right.

359
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,240
Speaker 2: They had gone down to the clock with the Chiefs.

360
00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,359
Speaker 2: The public just loved that team. And did I know

361
00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:58,760
Speaker 2: how big the deal was going to be that Brian

362
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 2: had left them to go to the Giants Dabo to

363
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 2: be the head coach. No I knew how good of

364
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 2: an offensive coordinated he was, but a lot of pros

365
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,640
Speaker 2: I've talked through this season, Chad, that's why they're still

366
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 2: not all in on the Bills. I just think that

367
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 2: was such a big loss to this team that this

368
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,040
Speaker 2: man is an offensive genius. I mean, we've seen it

369
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 2: like this. The Giants look like they have a new identity, right.

370
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:19,959
Speaker 2: We saw them really take huge strides last year with

371
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,919
Speaker 2: not that much talent. This Bills team last year, to me,

372
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 2: seemed like they had a season from hell and they

373
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,920
Speaker 2: still were able to win this division. Right, Like Gabe

374
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,240
Speaker 2: Davis rolled his ankle? What was that week one? One

375
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 2: of the star receivers, Josh Allen, injured his elbow midway

376
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 2: through the season. He played through that injury of the

377
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,679
Speaker 2: entire season. You could see too, his throwing mechanic was

378
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,399
Speaker 2: totally different after that point of injury in his elbow.

379
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 2: So to me, this is a team that I was

380
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 2: all about fading last year. This year, I'm just alling

381
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 2: them like I love the Bills in the sense of,

382
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:49,439
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's gonna get much better than

383
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 2: this season. Right They're gonna have their big issue right

384
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,280
Speaker 2: now for sure. To any professional he talked to, is

385
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,360
Speaker 2: that offensive line that is truly an issue. But when

386
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 2: you have a runner and a strong Q be like

387
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 2: Josh Allen in the gates that and on the outside,

388
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 2: they still have digs, they still have Gabe Davis. Now,

389
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 2: they have Cook in the backfield. Now they have a

390
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:10,119
Speaker 2: rookie tight end that we all think is gonna be

391
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,640
Speaker 2: a stud. It's just all there for this Bills team.

392
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 2: So I was completely negative off the bandwagon lash for

393
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 2: the Bills. This year, I'm on them like they're third team.

394
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 2: I love, I love, I love teams, just like the

395
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 2: Chiefs last year. I love a team in a really

396
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:28,400
Speaker 2: tough division that's gonna really push them to be playoff

397
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: ready all season. Right, Like at the end of the year,

398
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 2: I liked that they have so many tough games because

399
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 2: it feels like they're gonna be in playoff mode, except

400
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 2: last year they slept walk through that final month of

401
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:38,840
Speaker 2: the season and they got caught in the playoffs. I mean,

402
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 2: they literally almost lost to Miami at home with a

403
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 2: backup quarterback Like That's there were major issues last year

404
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,440
Speaker 2: for this Bills team, and I think this year they're

405
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:51,160
Speaker 2: gonna overcome a lot of that. So and with Warren,

406
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 2: it's not great value on the Super Bowl future. You

407
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 2: can throw a little on if you're getting plus nine hundred,

408
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 2: you're geting plus eight fifty. I don't hate it. If

409
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 2: you want to roll the dice and maybe think they

410
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 2: might get upset Week one by the Jets, you can

411
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,360
Speaker 2: hold off on that bet. But I did bet their

412
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 2: win total over ten and a half is just too low.

413
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:09,480
Speaker 2: Like that, to me is an overreaction to the Rogers

414
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 2: being in their division, right, to Miami being a little

415
00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 2: bit better than what people thought they were last year.

416
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:19,120
Speaker 2: I think that the public always likes the new toy, Chad, right,

417
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 2: That's just how the public is. They always like the

418
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 2: new thing that's coming along. The Bills, aren't. Aren't that anymore?

419
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 2: To a lot of people that are like, well, we've

420
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 2: liked the Bills. We've always given them like the Super

421
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:31,880
Speaker 2: Bowl betting favorites last three years, and they just never

422
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,239
Speaker 2: looked to the hype. Either choke or they let down

423
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 2: the playoffs. And to me, I want to come back

424
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 2: on the other side now. So I do think if

425
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 2: you're a Bills fans is lined up for this year,

426
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 2: like you just have so much talent across that offense

427
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:47,679
Speaker 2: and the D line. I mean, I don't know when

428
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 2: von Miller's be back. When he is back, that's a

429
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 2: huge upgrade to that D line position. So yeah, to me, Chad,

430
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 2: I did the over ten and a half. I threw

431
00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 2: a really small bet on the division. We'll talk about

432
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 2: my favorit bet for the division this division, but you know,

433
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 2: ten and a half to me, that's a nice price.

434
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 2: Minus one fifty, minus one forty, whatever you can get

435
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 2: at the book. I would take that. Like, to me,

436
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,439
Speaker 2: I got them at eleven point six wins, so I

437
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 2: got them a full win above what they're being projected

438
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 2: right now by the books. That's a really nice number.

439
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 2: So for me, that's the bet I'm making right now

440
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 2: is taking their over win total.

441
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 1: My notes tell me that Brandon Anderson has the Bills

442
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: as the second best offense in the NFL because Josh

443
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 1: Allen returns, because they're a year removed from your point, Simon,

444
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 1: Brian Dayball, and I think that they were impacted by that.

445
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 1: So now they've got a year to get their head straight.

446
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 1: They've added Damian Harris as a good number two option,

447
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 1: more of a power running back. Offensive line middling twenty

448
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 1: second according to Brandon. We're going to talk deeper in

449
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 1: the offensive lines with Ross Tucker on Thursday, number seven

450
00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 1: ranked defensive line according to PFF. Because of potential for

451
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 1: Von Miller to come back, I think I'm making the

452
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 1: Bills Niners my super Bowl matchup. Yeah, we weren't a

453
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 1: shaking his head.

454
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 3: There's a couple of things that I want to add here.

455
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 3: First of all, there were some improvements with Dorsey that

456
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,679
Speaker 3: weren't there with Dabell. But I completely mirror Simon's opinion

457
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 3: about Brian Dabele. One of my favorite play callers, one

458
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 3: of the most dynamic. He's able to change his game

459
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 3: plan on a week to week basis to attack his opponents.

460
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 3: He really focuses in understands what wins and loses games

461
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,359
Speaker 3: in the NFL and tries to stick with what wins.

462
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 3: But last year, you know, one of the great things

463
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 3: about this rushing attack was they had two point nine

464
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 3: yards before contact per running back run on first down.

465
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 3: That was by far the best in the NFL. And

466
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 3: I think James Cook there a plus, Damien Harris there

467
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 3: a plus. But the one cool thing about Dorsey was

468
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 3: that he did not overuse that. You know, he could

469
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 3: have leaned more into it seeing what they were getting

470
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 3: out of it, but instead they still stayed very past heavy.

471
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 3: So that boat well for this upcoming season and that hey,

472
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 3: maybe we're going to still be able to run the ball.

473
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 3: What that will do is if we don't get bypassing

474
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 3: a third down, we're still going to have a third

475
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 3: and manageable if you're productive on those first two downs.

476
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: And so for that reason, I think that that was

477
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 3: a positive. Their run defense, speaking of sticking on the

478
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 3: ground with the trenches, which is I know something Simon likes.

479
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,159
Speaker 3: The run defense last year was terrible. It's hard for

480
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: them to get worse than what they were last year.

481
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 3: They allowed between the tackles five point one yards per

482
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 3: care that was thirty first in the NFL. They allowed

483
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 3: sixteen percent of runs to gain ten plus yards that

484
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 3: was dead last in the NFL. They bring in Poonaford,

485
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 3: hopefully they're going to be able to get more out

486
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 3: of this ground game too. Defensively to prevent teams from

487
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 3: just running up the gut on them quite as frequently

488
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 3: this upcoming season. But if you look at this team,

489
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 3: I really value early down efficiency metrics, and this team

490
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 3: last year, in so many of their games, even without

491
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,160
Speaker 3: day ball they're calling the shots, was just so elite

492
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 3: in early downs and had the advantage in games in

493
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 3: early downs against their opponents. So they're going to just

494
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 3: have to continue doing that. And then the last thing,

495
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 3: I wrote an article on my website. I'm going back

496
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 3: to my roots, Chad. You know, when you and I

497
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 3: were first getting together, I used to write a lot

498
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 3: about analytics and data, and then I got away from that.

499
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 3: The last couple of years, I've been writing more about

500
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 3: betting on you know, various other platforms. I'm going back

501
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 3: to short football analysis this year, and I'm writing on

502
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 3: my site and I'm writing about whatever I want to.

503
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 3: And so I wrote a detailed article about the thing

504
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 3: that differentiates the Bills from the Chiefs. As you're picking

505
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 3: the Bills to make it to the Super Bowl this

506
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 3: year more than anything, because these are the top two

507
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 3: offenses in the NFL by far the last several years,

508
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 3: number one and number two in literally every single statistical

509
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,919
Speaker 3: metric that matters, except for down near the goal line,

510
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 3: where it might shock you as it did me. The

511
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 3: Buffalo Bills have the worst offense in the NFL down

512
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 3: inside the three yard line, down at the goal line

513
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 3: the worst, like not just twenty eighth, like literally dead last,

514
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 3: And in part it's because of the play designs that

515
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 3: they use, and so it's just so different between the

516
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 3: play designs that they've been using, especially under Dorsey, with

517
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,479
Speaker 3: what like Andy Reid was using with Patrick Mahomes, two

518
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 3: of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. But they get

519
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 3: the ball out of Patrick Mahomes's hands so quickly, and

520
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 3: one of the biggest things down at the goal line

521
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 3: is just complete the pass, because if you complete a

522
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 3: pass down near the goal line, your odds of scoring

523
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 3: are very high. And with the Buffalo Bills, all of

524
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 3: these designs are like Josh Allen holding the ball for

525
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 3: among the league's highest rate, and the completion rate is

526
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 3: one of the worst in the NFL, like thirty eight

527
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 3: percent completion rate because they're holding onto the ball too much.

528
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 3: If Dorsey's able to fix that and they improve down

529
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 3: inside the goal line when they get there, I mean,

530
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 3: that's exactly the next step this team needs to take

531
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 3: to maybe eventually knock off the Kansas City Chiefs and

532
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: make it to their first Super Bowl in ages.

533
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: By the way, when you and I first started working together,

534
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: you mean, when I discovered you and pulled you from

535
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: the scrap heap of being an expert witness for engineering

536
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,479
Speaker 1: and gave you a platform to write about analytics when

537
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: it comes to over unders. Yeah, that was like thirteen

538
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 1: years ago.

539
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah, that was a great day. I really appreciate

540
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 3: you for that. Yeah, being outside of my engineering profession

541
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 3: is the best is the best thing that's happened to me.

542
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 3: That was is not as fun as what I get

543
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 3: to do right now. So all I listen, thank you.

544
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: You know, I'm just here to help the Miami Dolphins.

545
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:35,640
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins. Look, I love the Dolphins. Nine

546
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 1: and a half wins. The over is minus one ten

547
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 1: plus three hundred to win the division. I think they're

548
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 1: a sleeper for the Super Bowl of twenty two to one.

549
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 1: Love the coach, love the talent at receiver. I think

550
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 1: there's some questions about Tua, but that is a question

551
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 1: more than like the Jets and Aaron Rodgers, whild we'll

552
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: get to. He's an if factor with the ceiling that

553
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: makes this team so much higher than I think just

554
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 1: about any other team. They to me, are one of

555
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 1: the more exciting teams. Simon, any best bets coming from

556
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 1: the Dolphins right now?

557
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm fading the Dolphins, Chad. I know it feels

558
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 2: like everyone in media is all over the Dolphins. They're

559
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 2: the darling team of everyone. And it's just the year

560
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 2: too for Mike McDaniels. I think that his offense snug

561
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 2: up on a lot of people last year. I think

562
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 2: a lot of defense will be prepared for it this year.

563
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 2: And I know you're saying where it's really hard to

564
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 2: prepare for the speed of Tyreek kill on waddle. I

565
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 2: know a lot of people think that's what all their

566
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:38,479
Speaker 2: offense was, but a lot of it was run blocking.

567
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 2: That's how they open up so many these lanes. And

568
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 2: it really seemed like that forty nine Ers game was

569
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 2: a turning point for this where a lot of defense

570
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 2: figured out this offense where they realize that Tua loved

571
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 2: the middle of the field, right, that was kind of

572
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 2: his sweet spot where they would have a lot of crosses,

573
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 2: a lot of stuff worked out where these guys would

574
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 2: be in the middle of field. The forty nine ers

575
00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 2: took that away and a lot of teams copycatted that

576
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 2: towards the end of the year. So to me, this

577
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 2: this Miami team is highly talented. I mean, they brought

578
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 2: in arguably one of the best defensive coordinators in all

579
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 2: football to coach his defense. And yeah, the Rams injury

580
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 2: is brutal. I know there's there's a lot of rumors

581
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 2: that he'll be back by December after rehab, which is

582
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 2: would be huge for this defense, and he's arguably one

583
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 2: of the best corners on football. But to me, this

584
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 2: Miami team, I just see them taking a step back

585
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 2: like two. If you look at all the numbers from

586
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 2: last year, too, was statistically the best quarterback on football.

587
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 2: I know it sounds crazy to people. If you go

588
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 2: look at the numbers, his accuracy was incredible. He made

589
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 2: almost always the smart read right if there's three options

590
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 2: for him to pass too, and whatever option he chose

591
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 2: was usually the perfect option to choose, like it was

592
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 2: just an incredible season for him and the only thing

593
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 2: held them back was concussions. I mean, me and you,

594
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 2: we had large bets on Miami last year to win

595
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 2: this division, Like we thought they were gonna the team

596
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 2: that was gonna sneak up on people. That's gone. They're

597
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 2: no longer that offense. There no longer sneak up on anybody.

598
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 2: I think teams will prepared for him. Then you look

599
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 2: at their schedule, it's tough chat. So I've actually taken

600
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 2: their under. I have them in nine wins, so I've

601
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 2: taken the under of small. Nothing for them di visually

602
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 2: nothing of them super Bowl. The only bet I really

603
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 2: made this team is Tyra Hill once again to lead

604
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,719
Speaker 2: the league in receiving yards. Just because the man himself

605
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: has set his goal is two thousand yards. How am

606
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 2: I not going to bet on that? Like anytime a

607
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 2: pro comes out and says that he know he's gonna

608
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 2: be in it to his ear when he's not getting

609
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 2: any his touches, and I like that kind of stuff

610
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 2: for a wide receiver. So yeah, my only real positive

611
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: bet for this team is Tyger Kill to lead the

612
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 2: league in receiving yards.

613
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 1: Warren quickly tell me, and then let's do the same

614
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 1: thing for Miami. Where do you stack Buffalo in terms

615
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 1: of strength of schedule for rest and prep as a

616
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: positive or negatives? I forgot to to have you discuss

617
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 1: that with the Bills and then talk about it for

618
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: Miami as well.

619
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the the Buffalo Bills are one of the

620
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 3: more difficult schedules in the NFL as it relates to

621
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: rest and prep. There they are a dead neutral on

622
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,719
Speaker 3: like their net rest edge. But one thing that's going

623
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 3: to separate both of these teams from the New York

624
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 3: Jets as it relates to betting the division is I'll

625
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 3: get to when we talk about the New York Jets

626
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 3: because it's a fascinating angle with the Miami Dolphins. I

627
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 3: don't disagree with Simon. They aren't sneaking up on anybody,

628
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 3: but they do have one of the better rest edges

629
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 3: in the NFL this year. They're at plus seven overall

630
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 3: and that is like sixth best, seventh best in the NFL,

631
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 3: I think tied for seventh best. So they have an

632
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 3: advantage over the Buffalo Bills, as do the New York Jets,

633
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 3: who have a decided advantage over the bus Buffalo Bills

634
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 3: in that respect.

635
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: Cordon Sean Crouner. The Miami Dolphins have the hardest schedule

636
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 1: in the NFL. So, Warren, do you agree with Simon

637
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: on the under Do you find any value in Miami

638
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: to win the division? What's your betting take on this team?

639
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, this one was very difficult because I'm so split.

640
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 3: You know, when the Dolphins had two, as you mentioned,

641
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: they were eight and three, they were one and six

642
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 3: in all the other games, you know, Tyreek Kill and

643
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 3: Jayla Watta were only there and only available when Tua

644
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 3: was there. I mean, they had fifteen touchdowns with Tua

645
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 3: in the lineup, zero touchdowns in their seventy three targets

646
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 3: when Tua was not there. Then, the other thing that

647
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 3: really is a positive if you're thinking about them this

648
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 3: upcoming season, is that not much went their way last

649
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 3: season six and five and one score games, So we're

650
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 3: talking basically about a coin flip. Fourth worst turnover margin

651
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 3: at minus seven, the worst penalty margin in the NFL

652
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: negative twenty seven, they ranked twenty fifth, and fumble luck

653
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 3: in twenty third. In field goal luck, they had one

654
00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 3: of the worst injury lucks as well, and they played

655
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 3: a difficult schedule. So from all those things, you're starting

656
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 3: to think, Okay, maybe there's going to be a little

657
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,719
Speaker 3: bit of regression. Maybe we're going to get back on

658
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 3: the right track with some of these and at least

659
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,479
Speaker 3: improved to league average, maybe a little bit better than

660
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 3: league average. And then you talk about Vic Fangio coming

661
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 3: on board, and the Dolphins last year were absolutely terrible defensively,

662
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 3: and two key metrics that really impacted their defense a lot,

663
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 3: and these are high leverage situations, red zone and third down,

664
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 3: where they ranked twenty fourth in each of those metrics.

665
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 3: So we're talking ninth worst in the NFL in both

666
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 3: because they were so bad on third downs they allowed

667
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 3: thirty two percent of opponents drives to reach the red zone.

668
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 3: That was the sixth highest rate in the league. So

669
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 3: I do think that Fangio. I'm obviously disappointed that Jayalen

670
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 3: Ramsey's not going to be there, And honestly, I was

671
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 3: waiting and biding my time for a moment that I

672
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 3: thought maybe the Jets, sorry maybe the Dolphins would be

673
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 3: a good It would be a good time to back

674
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 3: these guys. But I think the Ramsey situation might have

675
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 3: been the final nail in the coffin for me. I

676
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 3: don't know that I believe the timeline of when he's

677
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 3: going to be back number one and number two. I

678
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 3: just don't have enough confidence that all of these things

679
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 3: are going to go their way. The reason I wanted

680
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 3: to try to back the Dolphins a little bit is

681
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 3: for a reason I think Simon alluded to earlier, which

682
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 3: is that the Jets are the darlings right now and

683
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 3: there's no value on the Jets. Everybody wants to bet

684
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 3: on the Jets, and so is there another team in

685
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 3: this division that you could look at like you guys?

686
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 3: Although I didn't do it for a division, I was

687
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 3: on their win total over last year and it wasn't

688
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 3: until the very last game of the season that I

689
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 3: ended up getting it. I thought that thing was gone

690
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 3: and toast, even though we should have gotten it with

691
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 3: these because of the two injuries. I think he's going

692
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 3: to be healthier this year. I think he is better,

693
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 3: but I do have the concerns that Simon alluded to.

694
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 3: The opposing coordinators now have some blueprints to work off of,

695
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 3: and this is an interesting stat that I think is

696
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 3: one thing that teams started to take away from them

697
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 3: a little bit last year. That's a factor. This team

698
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 3: was excellent down the middle of the field, both passing

699
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 3: and running the football. When passing between the numbers two,

700
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 3: it was the best an EPA per attempt. When passing

701
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 3: outside the numbers, he ranked twenty second. When they ran

702
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 3: between the tackles they ranked third best, but when they

703
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 3: ran outside the tackles, they ranked twenty eighth out of

704
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 3: thirty two teams. So this team was so much like

705
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 3: down the middle of the field, passing, running, taking advantage

706
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 3: of the lighter boxes two ice safeties, the linebacker linebackers

707
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,760
Speaker 3: being a little bit worse league wide, and I think

708
00:35:47,360 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 3: now opponents can basically understand what we were trying, what

709
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 3: they were trying to attack, and have some success. I

710
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 3: am curious though, last point. You know, we know Kyle Shanahan,

711
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 3: his system is very solid, but he's really only had

712
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 3: success with Jimmy G. But he's had a lot of

713
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 3: success with Jimmy G. I wonder with Mike McDaniel as

714
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,880
Speaker 3: long as he's got TUA there like this system could

715
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 3: be successful and always keep them competitive. And I know

716
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 3: they're ceiling their best case scenario could be, you know,

717
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 3: to take a playoff trip and to do well, but

718
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 3: I think the path is too difficult. I don't want

719
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 3: to have any involvement at this point in the futures

720
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 3: market with this team.

721
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 1: When I said that I loved the Dolphins and was

722
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 1: excited about their ceiling, I was doing what good hosts do,

723
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: which is really just trying to set you guys up

724
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,919
Speaker 1: to create a little bit of tension and a counterpoint,

725
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 1: and clearly I did that really, really well. I'm excited

726
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 1: for two also because he's got that cool new sleeve

727
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 1: of a tattoo, and I think it's impressive. He put

728
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 1: it on his non throwing hand just so his arm

729
00:36:58,440 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 1: doesn't get bogged down by the way.

730
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 2: There you go.

731
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 3: I want to see if the camera that they stuck

732
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 3: on all of his practice footage is doing anything that

733
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:12,400
Speaker 3: is helping Mike McDaniel get them even better. I like

734
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 3: the Dolphins, like I was already on them last year.

735
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 3: I don't see enough value I'm rooting for them. I

736
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:20,400
Speaker 3: think that this is a fun team to watch when

737
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 3: they're hitting, and I hope the touist stays healthy because

738
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 3: he makes the NFL better. Because this offense is more exciting,

739
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 3: so but I just don't see enough value to want

740
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 3: to jump on them in the futures market to play

741
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: on them.

742
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 1: They are on the road this year against the Chiefs,

743
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 1: the Eagles, the Ravens, and the Chargers, and they also

744
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: have home games against the Cowboys and the Giants, which is,

745
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 1: you know, one of the reasons. They will also obviously

746
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: have to play the Bills, and they will also have

747
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 1: to play the Jets, and they will also have to

748
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 1: play the Patriots. Simon, It's not going to be an

749
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 1: easy road. I can see why you're anti Dolphins right now.

750
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: Now I'm coming around and seeing it. I was blinded

751
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 1: by two was brilliance and Mike McDaniel's charm. But now

752
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 1: now I'm seeing it.

753
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, last last year was I mean, the reason we

754
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 2: love them. If Tua would have stayed healthy, I do

755
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 2: think they would have won this division. Last year. It

756
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 2: was like all set up where we all we knew

757
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 2: mac jone is gonna be down here, and we knew,

758
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:23,400
Speaker 2: we knew Jet. We were all over the Jets just

759
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 2: being shit with Zach Wilson. So we don't have those,

760
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 2: we don't have that for Tuday this year, Like the

761
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 2: Jets will be better the Patriots when we're gonna get them,

762
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 2: they're going to be better. So it's one of those

763
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 2: where I know people are like, well, Tua did the

764
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 2: jiu jitsu, now he knows how'll fall. Their own line

765
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 2: still has major issues, and I am literally worried for

766
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 2: this man's health whenever they do play the Jets. Like,

767
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 2: the Jets have eight guys up front that can kill Tua.

768
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 2: So to me, that's gonna be the big water mark.

769
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 2: Well we know, okay, did jiu jitsu actually worked for

770
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 2: Tua went He's gonna be getting hit. I mean just

771
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 2: I'm just guessing here, but he's probably gonna be touched

772
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 2: ten to fifteen times anytime he drops back against this

773
00:38:58,400 --> 00:38:59,280
Speaker 2: Jets D line.

774
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 3: And you were right on Simon, just one last point chat.

775
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 3: You know, when they went out to San Francisco and

776
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 3: played the forty nine Ers and some of the defensive

777
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,359
Speaker 3: adjustments that then the Charters the very next week copycatted.

778
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 3: Did they put up only seventeen points in both of

779
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,399
Speaker 3: those games. Will know right off the bat if Mike

780
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 3: McDaniel has a counter move to that, because they play

781
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:21,800
Speaker 3: the Charters week one and the Chargers in Brandon Staley

782
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,399
Speaker 3: are going to try to implement some of those same

783
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 3: things and take away the middle of the field and

784
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 3: force two to throw the ball outside the numbers. And

785
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 3: so we'll know pretty quickly if there is a counterpoint

786
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 3: for them or if it's going to be a long season.

787
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: All Right, everybody who listens to the podcast knows what

788
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 1: time it is. It is time to talk about game Time,

789
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:43,440
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790
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 1: love game Time, honestly, I use it all the time.

791
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: And if you're looking to get out to a pro

792
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 1: college game this week or even a concert, game Time

793
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:53,279
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794
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,800
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795
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 1: my office here in New York City. Know what I see?

796
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 1: I see Yankees tickets. I can get into the Yankees

797
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 1: game tonight for six dollars. It's going to be a

798
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 1: beautiful night in the Bronx, even though the Yankees are

799
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 1: planned six box. No matter where you live, download the

800
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,200
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801
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:21,160
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802
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803
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:28,120
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804
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,279
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805
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: All right, guys, New York Jets. That is the elephant

806
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: in the room when it comes to the AFC East

807
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 1: Nine and a half wins is the total minus one

808
00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 1: twenty five is the price to pay if you want

809
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 1: to bet the over plus two forty to win the division.

810
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:55,439
Speaker 1: Start spreading the new as I said, fourteen to one

811
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl at bet three six five,

812
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 1: just outside that twelve to one three threshold where nine

813
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 1: of the past ten Super Bowl champs will have been

814
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:07,359
Speaker 1: twelve to one or lower. Who knows they may get

815
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 1: there before the season starts, Simon, Simon, the Jets have

816
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:16,319
Speaker 1: the thirdest hardest schedule according to Sean Curoner. They get

817
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,880
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the Eagles, and Chargers at home. Their toughest

818
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 1: non divisional road game will be at the Cowboys. I

819
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: want to hear what Warren has to say about their

820
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: rest and their prep advantages or disadvantages. But Simon, first

821
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:33,080
Speaker 1: set me up. We know we love this d line,

822
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:34,320
Speaker 1: but are we buying?

823
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 2: Yeah? Just an incredible defense. I mean, everyone knows that.

824
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 2: Anyone that watched them last year knows how good this

825
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 2: defense is, and they brought in the missing piece it's

826
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers. Like, to me, that's a huge deal to

827
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 2: a fan base that they've never had a good quarterback,

828
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 2: even when you go back all the way to when

829
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 2: they won their Super Bowl, statistically, they never They've never

830
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 2: had a quarterback anywhere close to Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers

831
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 2: last season his worst season, you could say, statistically would

832
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 2: be an all time season for a Jets quarterback. That's

833
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,760
Speaker 2: how bad their quarterback play has been their franchise history.

834
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,839
Speaker 2: So the hype I get. I get why the fans

835
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 2: should be excited. It's an exciting thing. If you don't

836
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 2: know much about football and you're just a Jets fan,

837
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:20,359
Speaker 2: you should be really excited. But anybody would tell you

838
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,480
Speaker 2: that's a smart better that looks at these kind of numbers.

839
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 2: They have major issues across the board. It all starts

840
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 2: up front. Their offensive line is terrible. So you have

841
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,920
Speaker 2: a bad offensive line with an age quarterback huge red Flack.

842
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,239
Speaker 2: And I love that he gave him the money. It

843
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:37,399
Speaker 2: was a little too late, right, They should have done

844
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 2: that They should have worked out the deal around the draft,

845
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 2: got him in camp, got that money, and went out

846
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 2: and got him another offensive lineman that could help protect

847
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 2: him because they didn't address their big issue. They have

848
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 2: a bad offensive line. And you know, no one's going

849
00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 2: to be shocked, Chad, when we're through six weeks and

850
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:55,839
Speaker 2: they're two and four, when you just look at their

851
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 2: schedule on paper, no one's going to be shocked if

852
00:42:58,360 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 2: they're two and four. And that to me is when

853
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:02,240
Speaker 2: and if I want to take the Super Bowl futures,

854
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 2: if I want to take in the wins division, that's

855
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 2: when I'll come back in on this team. But as

856
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,359
Speaker 2: we sit here right now, no brainer. Bet I'll take

857
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 2: the under and I will stay far hell away from

858
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 2: them super Bowl future. It's just who the hell are

859
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 2: they to be higher of than the Ravens. They have

860
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:16,800
Speaker 2: better odds right now than the Ravens to go to

861
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 2: the super Bowl. That's asinin in what world should they

862
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 2: be better odds in the Ravens. The Ravens are more

863
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 2: talented than they are across the board. So no, to me,

864
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 2: this is a team that the public will just love.

865
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 2: We knew the public would love them coming in just

866
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 2: because there's so many Jets fans that are just desperate

867
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 2: for a winner, and then you throw in their own

868
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 2: hard knocks that eats away at the value right there.

869
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:39,839
Speaker 2: So to me, this will be the most public team

870
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 2: head into the season. I've talked to multiple bookmakers and Jersey.

871
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 2: I talked to multiple bookmakers in Vegas when I was there.

872
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 2: Jets money. They keep getting Jets money, and that's what

873
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:50,879
Speaker 2: they keep talking about. And what do you always say, chat,

874
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 2: that's the dream for Vegas, Like they love when the

875
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 2: public pounds on these teams that are unproven. So to me,

876
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 2: the Jets, I'll get in them later in the season

877
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 2: and next year. I love them next year as well.

878
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 2: Like to look ahead, I think they'll address the offensive

879
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 2: line this offseason and then next year will be when

880
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 2: I'm on this Jets team for the upcoming season. But

881
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 2: this year, I can't get enough of fade them. So

882
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 2: I am starting on their under right now. I got

883
00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:16,399
Speaker 2: them at eight point five wins for this season. That's

884
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 2: a full game under the nine and a half. I

885
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 2: love the value on the team taking they're under.

886
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 1: First of all, when you started talking, you sounded enthusiastic

887
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 1: about the Jets, And in my head, I'm like, I'm like,

888
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 1: what the fuck is going on? Because we have talked

889
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 1: about fade the Jets, they since they signed Annie Rodgers

890
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 1: and the hype train started and they became this team

891
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 1: that was taking all this money. We love fading the Jets.

892
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 1: To your point, so you're like, freak me out a

893
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: little bit there for a second. I'm like, am I

894
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 1: in Wonderland? What is going on?

895
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 2: Saying Jets? Saying she'll be excited? That was my whole

896
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:55,280
Speaker 2: point at the very beginning.

897
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:57,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, well you kind of freaked me out for a minute.

898
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: So the first six games of the year, to your

899
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 1: point about they could potentially be two and four. They

900
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 1: host the Bills, they're at the Cowboys, they host the Patriots,

901
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 1: they host the Chiefs, they're at the Broncos, they host

902
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 1: the Eagles. Those are like, that is brutal, brutal. Three

903
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: of those teams are in that lower than twelve to

904
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,840
Speaker 1: one super Bowl threshold with the Eagles, the Chiefs, and

905
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 1: the Bills. Okay, and the Patriots are going to be

906
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 1: much much better. We're going to get to that so

907
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:28,720
Speaker 1: great sign.

908
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 2: That Cowboys d line versus this offensive line. It's just

909
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:32,879
Speaker 2: bad matchups for this team.

910
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:37,399
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, who is sort of aggregating defense offensive line

911
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: rankings from PFF in a variety of other places, has

912
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 1: the Jets is the number twenty third offensive line in

913
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:50,280
Speaker 1: the NFL. Warren, are you are you fading the Jets

914
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 1: as strongly as Simon and I are? Well?

915
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 3: The time that I would want to fade the Jets

916
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 3: is so Aaron Rodgers is going to start this next game.

917
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 3: We're going to see some more hard knocks once that

918
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 3: series is over. That's when I think everybody that money's

919
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 3: gonna as Simon said, is continuing to flow. It's going

920
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 3: to continue after Aaron Rodgers game. In the preseason. He

921
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 3: hasn't played yet. We've just seen the Zach Wilson Show,

922
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 3: which has been you know, Zach Wilson esque. But we're

923
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:21,919
Speaker 3: going to see Aaron Rodgers soon and then we're going

924
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 3: to see this market continue to rise. I would be

925
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:26,880
Speaker 3: looking if you're looking to fade this team. I think

926
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:29,359
Speaker 3: Simon's onto something. The time that I would do it

927
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 3: is right before the start of the season, when that

928
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 3: value is at its peak. And also potentially bet on

929
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:39,359
Speaker 3: the Buffalo Bills in Week one and then you can

930
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 3: come back and buy the New York Jets after those

931
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 3: first six games, I show that, in addition to them

932
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 3: having a difficult, tough offensive line, like their offensive line

933
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 3: is one of their weak spots, they play the number

934
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 3: one toughest schedule those first six weeks in opponent pass rush,

935
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 3: and I mean I'm circling that Week two game against

936
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 3: the Dallas Cowboys, like Simon mentioned, as a complete mismatch

937
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:07,840
Speaker 3: in pass rush versus offensive line. I'll talk about rest

938
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 3: in a second, because I know you want to hit that,

939
00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 3: but I do want to make sure that I include

940
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 3: the fact that Aaron Rodgers was a very different quarterback

941
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 3: last year. I don't know if this was age, lack

942
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 3: of comfort with his receiving corps, what have you, then

943
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 3: he was in prior years because thirty five percent of

944
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:29,240
Speaker 3: his attempts came out or behind the line of scrimmage.

945
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 3: In terms of depth of target, that was the highest

946
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,920
Speaker 3: of any quarterback in the NFL. He was not throwing

947
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 3: the ball down the field nearly as much. It was

948
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 3: all this, get the ball out of my hands quickly.

949
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 3: I think it was into self preservation mode at points

950
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 3: in time where he did not want to take those hits.

951
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 3: He wanted to get the ball out quickly. It was

952
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 3: the highest rate in his career, as the highest of

953
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 3: any quarterback in the NFL last year. So I'm interested

954
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 3: to see how this factors into this upcoming season. Potentially

955
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 3: behind it an offensive line that's struggling, because if you

956
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 3: look at Zach Wilson, Zach Wilson was actually very good

957
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:03,960
Speaker 3: when he was getting rid of the ball quickly. I

958
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 3: was surprised to see wrote about in the book number

959
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:09,480
Speaker 3: nine inefficiency went throwing the ball in less than two

960
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:12,360
Speaker 3: and a half seconds last year, But he had the

961
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 3: NFL's third highest rate of attempts that came when he

962
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 3: held onto the ball for four plus seconds, and the

963
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 3: NFL's highest rate of attempts that came when he held

964
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:22,800
Speaker 3: under the ball for five plus seconds. All Zack Wilson's

965
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 3: game is you saw it on that one clip that

966
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 3: was tweeted out like a couple of days ago. He

967
00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 3: just loves standing there servying the field, running around and

968
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 3: like a chicken with his head cut off, and then

969
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 3: just trying to make something happen crazy at the last

970
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,399
Speaker 3: second of the play. Sometimes it works. Most of the time,

971
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 3: it doesn't and that's what he was doing. Aaron Rodgers

972
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:42,040
Speaker 3: isn't going to do that. He's going to get rid

973
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 3: of the ball much quicker. But the question is he's

974
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 3: going to be looking for those dump offfs just to

975
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 3: be in preservation mode or is he actually going to

976
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:50,719
Speaker 3: push the ball down the field something he wasn't doing

977
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 3: last year.

978
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, this team. I cannot wait to fade this team. Warren.

979
00:48:57,480 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 1: Where's your strength of schedule with regards to prep and rest? Yeah.

980
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 3: Like I've talked about this on Twitter and some of

981
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 3: the Jets fans don't like me, but it's just a fact.

982
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 3: It's just data. I can't really like change it. But

983
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 3: the NFL, when they came out with their schedule, it's

984
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:14,919
Speaker 3: clear they want this team in the playoffs. They want

985
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 3: this team to be good enough to be hosting playoff games.

986
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 3: And I say that because of all the edges that

987
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 3: they've baked in. Their schedule is tough of opponents. Their

988
00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:26,319
Speaker 3: schedule is the easiest in franchise history in terms of

989
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 3: rest advantage that they have over their opponents. It's number

990
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 3: one in the NFL this year. It's the best in

991
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 3: New York Jets franchise history. And the other thing as

992
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 3: it relates to, you know, how do you punch a

993
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 3: ticket the easiest way possible. You guys both know this.

994
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 3: It's winning your division. And the NFL schedule makers gave

995
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 3: the Jets this decided advantage when rest is of its

996
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:51,280
Speaker 3: utmost importance. So that's late in the season. The Jets

997
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 3: play four divisional games late in the season, and they

998
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 3: have a rest advantage in all four of those games.

999
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,239
Speaker 3: Let's go over Week eleven, they get to play the

1000
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:03,000
Speaker 3: Bills after the Bills play Monday Night Football. The Bills

1001
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 3: are on a day last rest, short week. Week fifteen,

1002
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:08,400
Speaker 3: they take on the Dolphins. The Dolphins play Monday Night Football,

1003
00:50:08,640 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 3: short week for them. Week eighteen they take on the Patriots.

1004
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 3: The Jets play Thursday night. They have extra rest to

1005
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 3: play the New England Patriots. And then this other interesting quirk,

1006
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:21,760
Speaker 3: and that is that the NFL scheduled their first Black

1007
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 3: Friday game ever. And lo and behold, who's going to

1008
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 3: be on that Black Friday game? Of course, it's the

1009
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,879
Speaker 3: New York Jets hosting at home, which means the team

1010
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 3: that they're playing has to play on a short week

1011
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 3: and travel on the road. And who's that going to

1012
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 3: be the Miami Dolphins. So the Dolphins twice plus a

1013
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 3: game against the Bills plus a game against the Patriots

1014
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:43,439
Speaker 3: from Week eleven onward. The Jets have decided rest advantages

1015
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 3: down the stretch, which is bothersome if you're looking to,

1016
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 3: you know, fade this team in the division is just

1017
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 3: something to be aware of late in the year. But

1018
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:56,680
Speaker 3: there's no doubt about it. They have such a great

1019
00:50:57,200 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 3: rest schedule, but such a difficult schedule of opponent. It's

1020
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:02,760
Speaker 3: going to be interesting to see those two juxtaposed against

1021
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:03,200
Speaker 3: each other.

1022
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 1: Sammy, you know what I love about that. I feel

1023
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 1: like you and I are at the opposite end of

1024
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 1: the spectrum when it comes to NFL conspiracies, whereas I

1025
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 1: am anti conspiracy and think everything is a coincidence and

1026
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:18,800
Speaker 1: it's all left up to what's happening on the field,

1027
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 1: And I think you are all in on NFL league offices,

1028
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:26,279
Speaker 1: pulling the strings on every single detail. And so what

1029
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 1: Warren did there, which was very clever, he said people

1030
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,960
Speaker 1: on Twitter are coming after him because he's just stating

1031
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:34,160
Speaker 1: the facts. But the facts are leading to a very

1032
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 1: specific conclusion that may or may not be factual. Are

1033
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 1: you buying what Warren is selling about the NFL creating

1034
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 1: an easier path via arrest and scheduling for the Jets.

1035
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:52,359
Speaker 1: I think you're buying that particular conspiracy theory.

1036
00:51:53,200 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 2: Why would a billion dollar business want their New York

1037
00:51:55,680 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 2: offices to have a good year. It doesn't make sense. Now, Yeah,

1038
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 2: of course I believe all that stuff. I'm a very, very,

1039
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 2: very biased for the Northeast.

1040
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:03,719
Speaker 1: Chad.

1041
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 2: You know this living in Northeast. I just think the

1042
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 2: NFL catereds towards the Northeast in a lot of different ways.

1043
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 1: I love that we're all going to fade the New

1044
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 1: York Jets at under nine and a half at Simon,

1045
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 1: your enthusiasm made it sound like it might be one

1046
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:17,800
Speaker 1: of your favorite bets. But I'm fairly certain we're getting

1047
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 1: to your favorite bets. The New England Patriots seven and

1048
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 1: a half wins the over, the over plus one twenty

1049
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:30,719
Speaker 1: plus eight hundred to win the division, fifty to one

1050
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. Of the teams in this division,

1051
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 1: the Patriots have, for lack of a better term, the

1052
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 1: easiest of the schedules. Right. They have an easier schedule,

1053
00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 1: according Sean Kerner, than the Bills than the Dolphins and

1054
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 1: the Jets. They also have the best offensive line in

1055
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:54,759
Speaker 1: the division and probably have other than the Bills, you

1056
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:59,680
Speaker 1: could argue comparable to the Jets as a defensive line. Simon,

1057
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 1: fire up, man, I know you got a lot to say.

1058
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,400
Speaker 2: Here, Yeah, this is this is the team. We hated

1059
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 2: them last year. I think we made I think we

1060
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 2: made fun of them all off season for thinking that

1061
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:13,399
Speaker 2: Matt Patricia could run some type of offensive scheme for them.

1062
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 2: So we just hated the juju going to last season.

1063
00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 2: And you know, they have arguably the biggest fan base

1064
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 2: on football, right, I mean I could not stop hearing

1065
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:25,359
Speaker 2: from Patriots fans. They're just Tom Brady left the number right,

1066
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:28,000
Speaker 2: twenty years of greatness. They're gonna be a huge fan base.

1067
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:30,799
Speaker 2: So their their fans were pissed off. But we just

1068
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 2: we looked at the day of the numbers and it

1069
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 2: just showed that they were gonna be down here. Now

1070
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 2: do we know it's gonna be a season from hell? No,

1071
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 2: But I think that's a great thing for Mac to

1072
00:53:38,360 --> 00:53:41,240
Speaker 2: build off of. Like Mac, he had such a horrible

1073
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 2: year last year that everyone's off of them, right, Everyone's

1074
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 2: completely off this kid. Who had a great rookie year,

1075
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 2: had a terrible year last year. Now I think we're

1076
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 2: getting great value in this team. Like that's why I

1077
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 2: love the Jets move for as a gambler, the Patriot

1078
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 2: should probably be plus six hundred plus five hundred win

1079
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:59,800
Speaker 2: this division. We're getting plus eight hundred plus eight fifty

1080
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 2: lot of books. It's amazing, Like it's amazing to me

1081
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:04,319
Speaker 2: the value of getting on this Patriots team to in

1082
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:08,279
Speaker 2: this division like they are. They are what Belichick wants

1083
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 2: to be. They are a really good defense with an

1084
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:14,360
Speaker 2: incredible running attack with a quarterback that just can't screw

1085
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 2: it up. Like this feels like the early patriotsiers with Brady,

1086
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:19,279
Speaker 2: where it's like Mac, we're gonna need you to make

1087
00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:21,440
Speaker 2: big time throws every now and then, but it's not

1088
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:23,879
Speaker 2: all gonna be on you like we have now. They

1089
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:25,919
Speaker 2: brought in Zeke, They have a two headed monster there

1090
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:28,920
Speaker 2: in the running back backfield, They have a great old line,

1091
00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:32,360
Speaker 2: and the defense every week last year got better. Every

1092
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 2: week that defense improved and a lot of those stars

1093
00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:37,480
Speaker 2: are back. So to me, this is all just shaping

1094
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:38,920
Speaker 2: up to be a team I'll be high on. I

1095
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 2: know almost every professional I've talked to has a ticket

1096
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:44,319
Speaker 2: on their over win total. Like everyone's sticking the over

1097
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 2: seven and a half. It's gonna be one of the

1098
00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:48,759
Speaker 2: most bet win totals just because the professional money is

1099
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,160
Speaker 2: gonna come on it. I think the Patriots fan base,

1100
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 2: which again I just alluded to, is one of the

1101
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 2: biggest in the world, they're gonna be all over this

1102
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:57,920
Speaker 2: over win total. But to me, the real values them divisionally,

1103
00:54:58,080 --> 00:55:00,799
Speaker 2: Like the way their schedule shapes up. I'll be able

1104
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:02,399
Speaker 2: to take a position later in the season if they're

1105
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 2: just one or two back of the Bills, I'll be

1106
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:06,839
Speaker 2: able to take a position on that later in the season.

1107
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:09,560
Speaker 2: Because at plus eight hundred, there's so much value on

1108
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 2: this team for the division super Bowl. I'm not doing it.

1109
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:15,000
Speaker 2: I really I can't do it. I need Mac to

1110
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 2: get a playoff win before I really started backing him

1111
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:20,279
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, right, his only ever Ploth experience was

1112
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 2: getting blown out up in Buffalo. Like that's that's all

1113
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:25,279
Speaker 2: he has for Plough experience. I need to see more

1114
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 2: from him before I put Super Bowl future bets on

1115
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:30,080
Speaker 2: them at fifty to one. But we're sitting here at

1116
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:31,920
Speaker 2: eight to one for them to win this division on

1117
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:34,719
Speaker 2: bet three six five. I love that number, Chat, So

1118
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:36,880
Speaker 2: it's definitely gonna be a team just like the Rams.

1119
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:39,239
Speaker 2: Everyone's left for dead, and I'm gonna be super high

1120
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:42,279
Speaker 2: on them divisionally, win total wise, I just I love

1121
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 2: everything this team is where it's just that it's that

1122
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 2: old school early two thousands, late nineties kind of built team,

1123
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,440
Speaker 2: great defense, with a really strong running game, with a

1124
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 2: quarterback like Troy Akeman. Just don't screw it up, Mac,

1125
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 2: That's all they're asking you to do. Just do not screw

1126
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 2: up what this team's trying to do. So to me,

1127
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 2: it's all there for a bounce back season from this

1128
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 2: Patriots team.

1129
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 1: Warren, I'm gonna challenge you to give me an AFC

1130
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:12,839
Speaker 1: East best bet, favorite bet with the same kind of

1131
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:16,480
Speaker 1: passion and conviction that Simon just gave. If it's not

1132
00:56:16,520 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 1: on the Patriots, it'll be on someone else. But first

1133
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 1: give me your Patriots. Take are your best bets from

1134
00:56:22,880 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 1: any of these Patriots wins. Patriots to win the division,

1135
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 1: Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

1136
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:34,800
Speaker 3: No, no they're not, but I don't I don't necessarily

1137
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:36,840
Speaker 3: describe me. So i'mon sort of trying to convince me

1138
00:56:36,880 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 3: a little bit almost to me, what I value, what

1139
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:45,759
Speaker 3: I value so much is uh efficiency in football and

1140
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:48,880
Speaker 3: coaching and play calling and decision making and game planning.

1141
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:51,399
Speaker 3: It's something that I that I love focusing in on

1142
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 3: and and attacking it and talking to different guys in

1143
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:57,560
Speaker 3: the league and out of the league about it. And

1144
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:03,040
Speaker 3: it just felt last year like Matt Patricia was objectively

1145
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:06,359
Speaker 3: trying to hold this team back. No idea why. Maybe

1146
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:08,879
Speaker 3: he just didn't know any better. But there were three

1147
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 3: key areas that I just could not that were so confounding.

1148
00:57:12,239 --> 00:57:15,960
Speaker 3: I could not help understand how any rational person would

1149
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:17,680
Speaker 3: do this to their own team if they're trying to

1150
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 3: win games. The first one is the usage of play action.

1151
00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 3: When this team used play action, they had the NFL's

1152
00:57:25,000 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 3: highest improvement using play action versus not using play action,

1153
00:57:28,320 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 3: and yet they used it at the third lowest rate

1154
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 3: in the NFL. This is concerning a little bit this year.

1155
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 3: But because I'm wondering, does this team even look at

1156
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:39,440
Speaker 3: this type of data or is it or is it

1157
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 3: because somebody should have been telling Matt Patricia that we

1158
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 3: need to use play action a little bit more, use

1159
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 3: it for mac. It's actually helping a ton it should

1160
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 3: have been an analytics group is informing him of this information.

1161
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:53,400
Speaker 3: And I know that their old analytics guru kind of

1162
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 3: you know, has distanced himself a little bit from the team.

1163
00:57:56,120 --> 00:57:59,360
Speaker 3: But like this, this needs to occur this upcoming season.

1164
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 3: If Bill O'Brien is not capitalizing on certain things, there

1165
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 3: needs to be assistance there. But Bill O'Brien is definitely

1166
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 3: not going to make the same mistake. There's no way

1167
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 3: that they're going to use play action at the lowest

1168
00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 3: at the rates that they were using last year. That

1169
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 3: was number one. Number two, the Patriots threw twenty nine

1170
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 3: percent of their passes behind the line of scrimmage, which

1171
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 3: was the sixth highest. This is on early downs first

1172
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:22,400
Speaker 3: three quarters, which is what I try to look at

1173
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 3: when I'm understanding desire of a play caller. I strip

1174
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 3: out third down, which is reactionary. I strip out fourth quarter,

1175
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 3: reactionary early downs first three quarters one of the highest

1176
00:58:31,760 --> 00:58:34,160
Speaker 3: rates in the NFL throwing the wall behind the line

1177
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:37,000
Speaker 3: of scrimmage, and the splits for mac Jones were night

1178
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 3: and day difference behind the line of scrimmage twenty five

1179
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 3: percent success beyond the line of scrimmage fifty one percent

1180
00:58:42,280 --> 00:58:44,479
Speaker 3: behind the line of scrimmage minus point two to three

1181
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,360
Speaker 3: epaight per attempt beyond the line of scrimmage plus point

1182
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 3: one three And it wasn't even close. And yet why

1183
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:52,480
Speaker 3: are they throwing the ball so frequently behind the line

1184
00:58:52,480 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 3: of scrimmage? And the third one, this is one of

1185
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:57,840
Speaker 3: the things that I like to look at a lot,

1186
00:58:58,040 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 3: is are you, as an offense your philosophy to try

1187
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:03,920
Speaker 3: to set yourselves up for third and manageable or is

1188
00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 3: your philosophy to try to bypass third downs by skipping

1189
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:11,640
Speaker 3: them entirely. Some teams end up having longer third downs,

1190
00:59:11,680 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 3: like the Miami Dolphins, because they're so focused on creating

1191
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:16,520
Speaker 3: big plays that when they do get put into a

1192
00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:19,160
Speaker 3: third down, they have more yards to go, whereas other

1193
00:59:19,240 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 3: teams are trying to set themselves up for third and

1194
00:59:21,440 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 3: manageable by just having maybe lower upside but more efficient

1195
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:27,160
Speaker 3: play calls on those first couple downs so that they

1196
00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:30,080
Speaker 3: can then get a third and manageable. The Patriots were

1197
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 3: twenty ninth in percentage of early downs that got a

1198
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 3: first down, so they weren't skipping third down, and they

1199
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 3: were thirtieth in distance to go on third down, which

1200
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:41,600
Speaker 3: tells me this offense was completely rudderless. They had no

1201
00:59:42,320 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 3: game plan as to what we're trying to do here.

1202
00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:46,360
Speaker 3: Are we trying to set ourselves up or we're trying

1203
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:49,560
Speaker 3: to bypass? I think night and day we're going to

1204
00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 3: see differences across the board, and so that is something

1205
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:55,520
Speaker 3: that you would want to buy in on if you're

1206
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 3: backing the New England Patriots.

1207
00:59:57,080 --> 00:59:57,280
Speaker 1: Here.

1208
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 3: My only concern with what Simon said. I don't doubt

1209
01:00:00,960 --> 01:00:04,480
Speaker 3: that there's some talent there defensively, but my only concern

1210
01:00:04,600 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 3: is every year when we see Bill Belichick's team, they

1211
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:13,560
Speaker 3: destroy and massacre the teams that have mediocre to poor offenses.

1212
01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:17,480
Speaker 3: But they've struggled lately with those really good offenses unlike

1213
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:19,840
Speaker 3: what they were back in those early two thousands. And

1214
01:00:20,320 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 3: if they can't throttle it up defensively a little bit

1215
01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 3: better against some of these great offenses because they played

1216
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 3: like I think the sixth most difficult schedule of opposing offenses,

1217
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:32,880
Speaker 3: this defense isn't going to necessarily do enough. I also

1218
01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:36,680
Speaker 3: worry about, like the talent at the receiver position, the

1219
01:00:37,040 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 3: separation that they get definitely a concern for me there,

1220
01:00:40,800 --> 01:00:44,200
Speaker 3: But overall, I do think this is a super low

1221
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:47,240
Speaker 3: win total. If I'm playing this team, that's probably the

1222
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:50,160
Speaker 3: direction I'm looking is. I'm be looking at their win total.

1223
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 3: I don't know what their division wins are in terms

1224
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 3: of a prop but that's interesting if you're a little

1225
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 3: bit down on the Dolphins and you're a little bit

1226
01:00:57,760 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 3: down on the Jets, of just looking at what is

1227
01:00:59,840 --> 01:01:02,600
Speaker 3: New England in terms of division wins, because all these

1228
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:05,960
Speaker 3: other three teams are sort of buy on in some capacity,

1229
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 3: not maybe not the Bills per se, but they're still

1230
01:01:09,160 --> 01:01:11,760
Speaker 3: like a very popular team, whereas the Jets the Patriots

1231
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:13,880
Speaker 3: have been like written off for dead of course, so

1232
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:15,920
Speaker 3: I wonder how many wins. Maybe it's one and a

1233
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:19,560
Speaker 3: half for their division wins, but that could be interesting

1234
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 3: as well. But in general, i'd be looking at their

1235
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:25,240
Speaker 3: win total. I think this team could improve tremendously thanks

1236
01:01:25,280 --> 01:01:28,520
Speaker 3: to a better offensive structure and game plan. I just

1237
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:31,800
Speaker 3: hope that they're pulling the right levers throughout the course

1238
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:34,400
Speaker 3: of the season to look at the data and understand

1239
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:36,880
Speaker 3: what they need to change offensively before it's too late.

1240
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:39,000
Speaker 3: There's no reason to like wait till a bye week

1241
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 3: or figure it out after the season's over. You need

1242
01:01:42,040 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 3: to be studying all this type of stuff every single

1243
01:01:44,280 --> 01:01:46,360
Speaker 3: week throughout the course of the season and getting it

1244
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:48,760
Speaker 3: to the staff so they can adjust their play calling.

1245
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:54,000
Speaker 1: I've already bet the Pats over seven and a half.

1246
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:57,920
Speaker 1: I haven't bet the division yet, but I will. I

1247
01:01:57,960 --> 01:02:01,560
Speaker 1: know Simon is in love with the eight to one

1248
01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:05,120
Speaker 1: to win the division. He has gone on the record

1249
01:02:05,160 --> 01:02:09,880
Speaker 1: with his love of the pass over seven and a half. Warren,

1250
01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 1: you were best bet from the AFC East. Could be

1251
01:02:15,280 --> 01:02:17,360
Speaker 1: anything we talked about or something different.

1252
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 3: Is yeah, I've got it. So I've got like twenty

1253
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:28,000
Speaker 3: eight different futures right now, player props, game lines, throughout

1254
01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:31,160
Speaker 3: the course of the season, win totals, et cetera. Ironically enough,

1255
01:02:31,200 --> 01:02:32,800
Speaker 3: I went back and looked through my list of twenty

1256
01:02:32,840 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 3: eight none yet I have not a single future on

1257
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:39,360
Speaker 3: the AFC East. I wanted to fade the Bills, but

1258
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:41,920
Speaker 3: there's no value there. Agree with Simon in that regard

1259
01:02:42,440 --> 01:02:44,960
Speaker 3: the future that I'm looking to take. I can't tell

1260
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 3: people to bet it now, but the future I'd be

1261
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:51,400
Speaker 3: looking to take is I'd be looking to wait until

1262
01:02:51,760 --> 01:02:54,520
Speaker 3: we get right to the start of the season. Fade

1263
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:58,400
Speaker 3: the Jets on their win total, potentially bet against them

1264
01:02:58,400 --> 01:03:01,120
Speaker 3: week one against the Buffalo bill like kind of package

1265
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:04,920
Speaker 3: that up together, hit those two, and then come back

1266
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:08,480
Speaker 3: and bet the over on their win total after they

1267
01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:11,920
Speaker 3: play the Philadelphia Eagles and potentially lose that game in

1268
01:03:11,960 --> 01:03:14,840
Speaker 3: Week six. So I'd be looking to fade the Jets

1269
01:03:14,880 --> 01:03:17,120
Speaker 3: on their win total, but I'd be looking to do

1270
01:03:17,200 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 3: that closer to the start of the season, once we've

1271
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:23,960
Speaker 3: reached that crescendo of Aaron Rodgers going in there playing

1272
01:03:23,960 --> 01:03:28,080
Speaker 3: the preseason game and the hype of hard knocks continuing

1273
01:03:28,080 --> 01:03:29,920
Speaker 3: to carry us over the next couple of weeks.

1274
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:33,640
Speaker 1: I don't mind that strategy, Simon, and I love playing

1275
01:03:33,680 --> 01:03:37,800
Speaker 1: a get to the breaking point or get into the

1276
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:41,600
Speaker 1: season and start adjusting on your bets. I can't, I can't.

1277
01:03:41,680 --> 01:03:42,560
Speaker 1: I can't hate on that.

1278
01:03:42,640 --> 01:03:44,640
Speaker 3: Well, then think about this chat. If you we're talking

1279
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:46,760
Speaker 3: about rest a lot, and I look at the first

1280
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:49,720
Speaker 3: six weeks and that game against the Cowboys, they're at

1281
01:03:49,720 --> 01:03:52,040
Speaker 3: a rest disadvantage. They do not have a single rest

1282
01:03:52,040 --> 01:03:55,800
Speaker 3: advantage the first six weeks of the season. Immediately after that, though,

1283
01:03:56,000 --> 01:03:59,320
Speaker 3: they have rest advantages in like five of their remaining

1284
01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:02,320
Speaker 3: games from Week eight onward. They've got rest advantages in

1285
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:04,960
Speaker 3: five of those games. We already talked about those four

1286
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:08,160
Speaker 3: interesting rest edges that they have against the AFC East,

1287
01:04:08,200 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 3: plus the strength of schedule gets a little bit weaker,

1288
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:13,920
Speaker 3: so down that stretches where you could buy them. And

1289
01:04:13,960 --> 01:04:16,240
Speaker 3: the other interesting thing down the stretch for a team

1290
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:19,479
Speaker 3: like the Buffalo Bills, that's a team obviously they play

1291
01:04:19,560 --> 01:04:21,400
Speaker 3: up north, they'd like to host some of their games

1292
01:04:21,440 --> 01:04:23,400
Speaker 3: late in the year to have some of that inclement

1293
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:25,960
Speaker 3: weather because Josh Allen's got a rocket arm and they

1294
01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:28,160
Speaker 3: can win some of these games. Four of the bills

1295
01:04:28,240 --> 01:04:30,840
Speaker 3: last six games are on the road, so they don't

1296
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:34,320
Speaker 3: get that weather advantage at home in Buffalo. So you

1297
01:04:34,360 --> 01:04:37,400
Speaker 3: can look to back the Jets after their slow start

1298
01:04:37,400 --> 01:04:41,040
Speaker 3: when they've got all these rest advantages and play some

1299
01:04:41,120 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 3: easier opponents if you wish.

1300
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:46,600
Speaker 1: You mean Simon, what he's saying is you can play

1301
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:51,560
Speaker 1: the Jets once the conspiracy theory starts to yield some return.

1302
01:04:53,720 --> 01:04:55,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I love where you're talking about. We we

1303
01:04:55,560 --> 01:04:58,120
Speaker 2: love playing Ncason Bets. One of my favorite memories for

1304
01:04:58,240 --> 01:05:01,800
Speaker 2: us was that's season what was it two years ago now,

1305
01:05:01,800 --> 01:05:04,120
Speaker 2: where the Bengals there were ten to one to win

1306
01:05:04,160 --> 01:05:06,320
Speaker 2: the division, but they were only a game back of

1307
01:05:06,320 --> 01:05:08,000
Speaker 2: the Ravens. I guess who they're playing that week. They're

1308
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:09,960
Speaker 2: playing the Ravens. So what do you mean, Chad? Do

1309
01:05:10,520 --> 01:05:12,040
Speaker 2: we gave all the ten to one and we gave

1310
01:05:12,040 --> 01:05:14,160
Speaker 2: out the Bengals. It's at plus six and a half

1311
01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:17,040
Speaker 2: over the Ravens. They end up beating the Ravens in

1312
01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:18,880
Speaker 2: that game and they're dropped all the way down from

1313
01:05:18,880 --> 01:05:20,840
Speaker 2: ten to one to three to one for them to

1314
01:05:20,880 --> 01:05:23,360
Speaker 2: win that division. So it's one of those where we're

1315
01:05:23,400 --> 01:05:25,240
Speaker 2: just playing the number, Like I really think that Patriots

1316
01:05:25,240 --> 01:05:27,800
Speaker 2: are gonna win this division. Fuck No, the Patriots have

1317
01:05:27,840 --> 01:05:30,400
Speaker 2: a lot of holes compared to the Bills and Miami.

1318
01:05:30,760 --> 01:05:32,280
Speaker 2: But the value is just there. That's what I'm trying

1319
01:05:32,280 --> 01:05:34,560
Speaker 2: to explain to people, Like eight to one, that's an

1320
01:05:34,600 --> 01:05:37,520
Speaker 2: incredible opportunity to hedge out come late December.

1321
01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:40,800
Speaker 1: All right, folks. As a reminder of the Favorites podcast

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01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:44,600
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Speaker 1: Problem Caller text one eight hundred gambler. I want to

1329
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:11,400
Speaker 1: thank Warren Sharp Sharp Football Analysis. Go get the book.

1330
01:06:11,560 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 1: Listen to his podcast on the Ringer. Go to read

1331
01:06:16,200 --> 01:06:20,600
Speaker 1: Sharp Football Analysis. I want to thank Simon Hunter, my bff,

1332
01:06:20,760 --> 01:06:26,120
Speaker 1: my co host, my companion, Michael Padre. Reminder like subscribe,

1333
01:06:26,600 --> 01:06:31,880
Speaker 1: watch on YouTube. Check out the Action Network podcasts for

1334
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:36,960
Speaker 1: the latest in some more football betting preview content. I

1335
01:06:37,000 --> 01:06:40,120
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. Download us from Apple, podcasts from Spotify,

1336
01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, subscribe, say whatever

1337
01:06:42,920 --> 01:06:46,160
Speaker 1: you want We five stars. Feedback is a gift until

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01:06:46,240 --> 01:06:57,200
Speaker 1: next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly.

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Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

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