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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Podas All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Da Cundy centy five thirty thirty five, forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 4: And the kicks block look college football, Laura stund Oh

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Speaker 4: my goodness, he stumble and the lateral to the corner

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Speaker 4: of the.

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Speaker 3: Jibe, don't you the lad.

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Speaker 1: Came up the field to night.

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Speaker 3: It's not the sage on the gag in the fight, it's.

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Speaker 4: The sage of the fight in the.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. This is

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Speaker 2: the group of five Deep Dive. I'm your host, Mike

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Speaker 2: Calvary's and the EDA Oliver to my McKenzie Milton of

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Speaker 2: course referring to Mike Ianello joining me for this ride

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Speaker 2: and a special guest here for the AAE Conference preview.

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Speaker 2: We got Stucky on board and we got a lot

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Speaker 2: of good teams at the top of this conference to

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Speaker 2: discuss some teams with the new year six Bowl aspirations.

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Speaker 2: So let's go ahead and just jump right into it.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with the bell of the ball last year,

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Speaker 2: since he punches their ticket as a G five team

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Speaker 2: to the College Football Playoff, their win total coming to

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two nine and a half plus two hundred

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Speaker 2: to win the AAC SP plus projections on offense, eighteenth

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Speaker 2: nineteenth on defense. So you know, very balanced there at

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Speaker 2: the top. A lot to like. Even though desmon Ritter

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Speaker 2: is now off to the NFL. They have three returning

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Speaker 2: All conference offensive lineman. Five starters return in total on

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Speaker 2: the old line, Evan Prater or Ben Bryan at quarterback.

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Speaker 2: Prader being the highest rated recruit in program history. Corey

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Speaker 2: Kiner coming in from LSU to fill in that Jerome

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Speaker 2: Ford void. You know they had plucked him out of Alabama.

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Speaker 2: He was clearly a difference maker. Kiner can be that

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Speaker 2: kind of runner for the Bearcats this year. Seven news

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Speaker 2: starters on a defense sled by Mike Trespel. But then

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Speaker 2: we get into the schedule and things get, you know, interesting.

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Speaker 2: I think this number is probably priced at nine and

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Speaker 2: a half when you consider they're at Arkansas, they're at

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Speaker 2: Miami of Ohio. Who could be you know, buying for

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Speaker 2: a MAC championship this year. They blew the doors off

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Speaker 2: the RedHawks last year, but they got to go to Oxford.

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Speaker 2: They also get Indiana at home, and then when you

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Speaker 2: look at their schedule across the AAC at SMU at

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Speaker 2: Central Florida, but they do avoid Houston. So I'll start

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Speaker 2: with you. I know, what, what are your thoughts on Cincy

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Speaker 2: this year? Do you think this number at nine and

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Speaker 2: a half is just too high to play any other direction?

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Speaker 1: I think it's priced pretty fairly. I don't really have

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Speaker 1: any action either way. As you mentioned, I still think

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Speaker 1: they'll be good. They've recrued well. Luke Fickles, you know,

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Speaker 1: the best G five coach going, one of the best

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Speaker 1: in the entire country. But you mentioned it, there's just

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Speaker 1: too many losses for me to want to invest in

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Speaker 1: this team. They lost seven All conference defenders, nine players drafted,

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Speaker 1: the most ever from a G five team. You know

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Speaker 1: Ben Bryant, you know, assuming he does win the job,

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Speaker 1: at least has the advantage of he was in that

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Speaker 1: system for three years backing up Desmond Ritters, so he's

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Speaker 1: not a completely new quarterback, which I do. Like you

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Speaker 1: mentioned the old Lion, which I love. But to me,

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Speaker 1: there's just too much turnover, especially on defense, for me

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Speaker 1: to really want to invest in this team at that price.

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Speaker 2: All right, Zucky, what are your thoughts on U see

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Speaker 2: here trying to rekindle the magic once again and starting

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Speaker 2: a season against an SEC sleeper in Arkansas team that

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Speaker 2: clearly wants to keep their positive momentum going. Since he's

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Speaker 2: not gonna sneak up on anybody. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 2: on the Bearcats?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we talked about we're going to talk

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Speaker 3: about the top three teams in this conference. Houston since

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Speaker 3: uc have just to illustrate how close they are in

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Speaker 3: the media poll, which obviously can be a little off

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Speaker 3: from power ratings, but Houston two and forty three total votes.

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Speaker 3: Since he two forty two and then UCF two to

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Speaker 3: twenty five, Houston and UCF got seven first place votes

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Speaker 3: and since he got ten, so they were Houston actually

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Speaker 3: was the media preseason favorite. My one vote. Yeah, I mean, look,

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Speaker 3: since it'll be interesting Ace who becomes the court back here.

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Speaker 3: Both were backups to Rinter in the past and different

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Speaker 3: seasons than Brian actually left, so that that that's a

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Speaker 3: little a fun little nugget. But I don't really think

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Speaker 3: that Ridder's that big of a loss or Ford. I'm

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Speaker 3: really in the offensive line should be great. I am

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Speaker 3: worried about the receivers, but we mentioned the defense, and

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Speaker 3: I just don't think that we can really we can

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Speaker 3: really account for how big of a loss their guys

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Speaker 3: in their secondary are. I mean, they had three gets

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Speaker 3: drafted in their first four rounds. Kobe bryanh won the

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Speaker 3: Jim Thworart went in the fourth at a safety, go

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Speaker 3: in the and go in the second round, and then

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Speaker 3: of course saus Gardner in the first round, who you know,

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Speaker 3: has been I think the best cornerback in college football

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Speaker 3: in the past few seasons. Eleven hundred snaps, he had

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Speaker 3: nine interceptions, allowed zero touchdowns in his career. I mean,

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Speaker 3: what as the boundary corner? What he allowed that defense

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Speaker 3: to do? And when you have three NFL defensive backs,

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Speaker 3: I just don't think that we are anticipating the drop

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Speaker 3: off in the entirety defense, right, Like, hey, we go

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Speaker 3: from NFL corners to and you know, they got Arkwan

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Speaker 3: Bush there in a safety back, but then what happens

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Speaker 3: in the front seven. They lost some guys there too,

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Speaker 3: So I think the defense takes a significant step back.

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Speaker 3: Just when you have a guy who can just say,

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Speaker 3: you know, tell Gardner, go take the boundary side of

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Speaker 3: the field, and then no team's even gonna throw there.

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Speaker 3: The entire game makes your defense a lot easier, so

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Speaker 3: I think, Look, I think Colin has like a touchdown

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Speaker 3: difference between Houston and since he I don't see it

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Speaker 3: being that big of a gap. I think Houston UCF

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Speaker 3: and since he are pretty close. And if you look

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Speaker 3: at the schedule, like who plays who where, yes, since

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Speaker 3: he does avoid Houston. But as we mentioned, if you say,

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Speaker 3: if we say, we've all saw a fourth team in

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Speaker 3: here is the top four with SMU, since he has

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Speaker 3: two road games against the top four, Houston only has

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Speaker 3: one road game. They only play one of the top

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Speaker 3: four teams and that's SMU. And then you see F

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Speaker 3: plays too, but they played both at home. So from

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Speaker 3: a scheduling point of view, from the top three teams,

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Speaker 3: I think since he's at a disadvantage, you see really

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Speaker 3: tough place to play h No I've seen NOV. I

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Speaker 3: think the win total is about right. I would lean under,

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Speaker 3: but not enough to play it. But I do think

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Speaker 3: the defense is going to take a bigger step back

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Speaker 3: than a lot of people think. I know they're recruiting well,

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Speaker 3: but you just can't underestimate the impact of losing those

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Speaker 3: guys in the secondary to the NFL.

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Speaker 2: I also add in Cincinnati messed around a few times

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Speaker 2: last year, and they were in games that they really

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Speaker 2: shouldn't have been in in late in the third quarter

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Speaker 2: and fourth quarter. And I think a lot of that

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Speaker 2: has to do with Fickle just being more of a

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Speaker 2: conservative coach. So does he take the governor off of

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Speaker 2: this offense? Let you know, caudually open it up a

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Speaker 2: little bit so they can win some higher scoring games

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Speaker 2: that you have to be seen. I think nine and

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Speaker 2: a half is too rich for my blood. If I

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Speaker 2: were to play it, I play under based on their schedule.

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Speaker 2: But let's get into some of these other challenges because

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Speaker 2: as Stucky acutely you know, pointed out, these teams are

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Speaker 2: neck and neck, and there's a lots of like in

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Speaker 2: the top four, the second team here being Houston. Their

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Speaker 2: win tubles set at nine minus one twenty if you

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Speaker 2: go with the under on the win total two to

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Speaker 2: one as well to win the AAC sp plus according

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Speaker 2: to Bill Connley, forty sixth rated offense, forty second rated defense.

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Speaker 2: For me, I would be all in, bye bye bye.

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Speaker 2: If Alden McCaskill did not get hurt. You know, the

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Speaker 2: AAC Rookie of the Year out for the year. He

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Speaker 2: gave them an extra home run threat offensively, not that

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Speaker 2: they the cover's bear by any stretch. You know, Clayton

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Speaker 2: tune back Tank Dell was electric down the stretch, including

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Speaker 2: a great pole game against Auburn. Matthew Golden comes in

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Speaker 2: one of the highest rated recruits you know, probably going

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Speaker 2: back to the Swack days for Houston. He's an early

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Speaker 2: enrollde at wide receiver. There's tons of buzz about him.

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Speaker 2: And then the defensive side of the ball, million dollar

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Speaker 2: man Doug Belk at defensive coordinator. He's put together a

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Speaker 2: unit that they're calling themselves Sack Avenue Jidozie, Nuwonkwoh Parish,

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Speaker 2: Anthony Jones, Nelton Caesar. I like any team that can

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Speaker 2: generate pressure just with four or five guys rushing the passer.

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Speaker 2: They can do that. But there is a really tricky

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Speaker 2: opening slate. You know, they got to go to what

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Speaker 2: could be a hornet's nest playing at UTSA at the Alamodome,

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Speaker 2: and then the very next week talk about a team

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Speaker 2: with positive momentum at Texas Tech. You know that's going

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Speaker 2: to be a wild game and old Swack rivalry renewed

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Speaker 2: after that. No sensey, no UCF at SMU, but I

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Speaker 2: don't know. I think I'm more interested to play them

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Speaker 2: at plus you know, at plus two hundred plus two

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Speaker 2: twenty five depending on the book to win the AAC

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Speaker 2: as opposed to the win total. I'll go first to

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Speaker 2: U Stucky on this one. What are your thoughts on

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Speaker 2: the Kougs here and do you have any kind of

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Speaker 2: concerns about this offense without that home run threat at

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Speaker 2: running back? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I mean I really like this offense. If the offensive line,

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Speaker 3: there are some questions there, but they're loaded at receiver.

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Speaker 3: Dell you mentioned Tune is back and extremely experienced. I

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Speaker 3: don't think the running back is as big of a

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Speaker 3: loss as you're making, but it is a loss the defense. Look,

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Speaker 3: they are losing halts top, but they are just low.

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Speaker 3: They're so deep that third ward defense they can generate pressure.

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Speaker 3: They go so deep on the defensive line. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: Belk is a star. I love him. They did lose

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Speaker 3: two corners to the NFL, but they're back when they

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Speaker 3: were in last year when they were moving guys around,

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Speaker 3: they looked okay. So I don't think there's gonna be

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Speaker 3: as big of a drop off as say, We'll see

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Speaker 3: in Cincy, but it's definitely something the monitor. I lean

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Speaker 3: the over here with Houston. I wish we had a

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Speaker 3: little bit more than plus two hundred to take them,

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Speaker 3: but the schedule is certainly extremely favorable. As I mentioned,

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Speaker 3: they only play of those top four teams that we

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Speaker 3: throw SMU in there, SMU on the road is the

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Speaker 3: only team they play. They don't play any of the

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Speaker 3: top three teams. So yeah, if they get by UTSA

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Speaker 3: and the opener, which I think they do, and they

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Speaker 3: get revenge against Texas Tech or whether they flew that

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Speaker 3: game in the second half last year, there's a chance

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Speaker 3: this team could go undefeated.

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Speaker 2: I know, I do you agree? Are you that bullish

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Speaker 2: on Houston?

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Speaker 1: I'm not as bush in those first two games, but

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Speaker 1: I'm definitely bullsh and I do agree with you. I

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Speaker 1: don't love mccaska getting hurt, but it's a running back.

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Speaker 1: It puts a little more pressure on Clayton Tune, who

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Speaker 1: I still get the willies with him a little bit,

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Speaker 1: but g Nathaniel dellback is huge. I actually found this

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Speaker 1: interesting bet on draftings. I probably wouldn't take the over

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Speaker 1: because you know we are high on ETSA. Obviously, Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech beat them last year, and I do kind of

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Speaker 1: like what they're doing. Draftings has a really interesting bet

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Speaker 1: that you can get conference wins. They have over six

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Speaker 1: and a half conference wins for Houston. The overs juice

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Speaker 1: to plus one sixty. So when you look at that schedule,

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Speaker 1: as Stucky mentioned, they avoid UCF, they avoid Houston, they

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Speaker 1: avoid or they are and they avoid Cincinnati. So even

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Speaker 1: if they do fall at SMU, you basically have a

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Speaker 1: lost you know, two lost cushion in there or one

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Speaker 1: lost cushion in there if they do slip up in

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Speaker 1: that AAC stretch. They ran the table in the AAC

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Speaker 1: last year. So you know, even if you you know, Stucky,

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Speaker 1: if you guys are confident they're going to run the table,

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Speaker 1: I'd rather get the plus one sixty odds because they're

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Speaker 1: certainly going to have to run the AAC to do that.

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Speaker 1: So I really like that number versus I mean, eight

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Speaker 1: and a half is at Fandel's juice to minus one

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Speaker 1: sixty five. Draftings has a nine minus. So I do

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Speaker 1: like that Houston over six and a half conference wins.

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Speaker 1: I love that plus one sixty us on that.

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Speaker 2: That that is a great number. I think that's one

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Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna play in lou of playing them at

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Speaker 2: two to one, because two to one to win the conference.

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Speaker 2: You know you can avoid all those teams in the

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Speaker 2: regular season, but you're you're definitely going to play an

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Speaker 2: elite team in the championship game. So I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: I think that's that's great value. Turning to the third

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Speaker 2: team here, Central Florida's in an eight and a half

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Speaker 2: for their win total over you got to pay minus

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Speaker 2: one thirty to get that bet down seven to two

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Speaker 2: to win the AAC SP plus projection on offense, forty

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Speaker 2: eight thirty second on defense, and that defense is really

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Speaker 2: what I've circled here and why I'm interested. Could be

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Speaker 2: special by AAC standards. Their entire secondary is back from

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Speaker 2: a four to two five set up. They're thirty fifth

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Speaker 2: against the pass last year. They could be even better

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Speaker 2: on offense. There's just some questions in terms of who's

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Speaker 2: going to be the quarterback. Mikey Kean was efficient instead

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Speaker 2: of you know, Dylan Gabriel when he went down sixty

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Speaker 2: four percent completions, seventeen tds, only picks. But where does

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Speaker 2: that leave John Reese Plumbley, Like, does he come in.

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Speaker 2: Is he the benefit for this offense. They have an

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Speaker 2: experienced backfield. You know, they probably have three backs who

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Speaker 2: could all start, depending on the situation. Ryan O'Keefe at

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Speaker 2: wide receiver, three starters on the line. Do you go

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Speaker 2: boom or bust and go with the old miss transfer

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Speaker 2: here or do you stick with Mikey keane and pair

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Speaker 2: it with a quality defense and someone who's not going

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Speaker 2: to turn the ball over that much. That's the question

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Speaker 2: for Melzon in this spot, and generally, you know, it's

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Speaker 2: hard to get a feel for what he's going to

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Speaker 2: do because he's gone in both directions over the course

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Speaker 2: of his career. He's gone for the playmaker in Nick Marshall,

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Speaker 2: you know, wrote that all the way to the National

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Speaker 2: championship it against Florida State. He's also gone with transfers

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Speaker 2: like Jared Stidham, who were you know, more pocket passers.

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Speaker 2: I'll start with you, Stucky, who do you think wins

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Speaker 2: this quarterback battle? On how much does that impact how

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Speaker 2: you play Central Florida not just preseason but also during

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Speaker 2: the season.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I really love this UCF team. I mean you

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Speaker 3: mentioned their defense. I mean, by some measures, they were

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Speaker 3: top twenty secondary last year return to everybody. The defensive

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Speaker 3: line super deep. Their one weakness was at linebacker. They

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Speaker 3: lose all the linebackers, but they got super talented transfers

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Speaker 3: at linebacker. Offensive line one hundred and thirty starts like

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Speaker 3: three starters, two transfers that should start. I like everything

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Speaker 3: about this team year two of Gus, don't. It just

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Speaker 3: feels like Plumbly fits a Gus Malsan offense so much better. Right,

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Speaker 3: the dual threat and what Plumbly can do. Now you

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Speaker 3: know the quarterback position in question, how's he gonna fit house,

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Speaker 3: keen gonna fair? If it is him and your two?

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Speaker 3: I think I would rather go maybe to win the

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Speaker 3: conference over their win total with quarterback questions, because it's

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Speaker 3: kind of like higher sealing, more variance with UCF. I

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Speaker 3: just wish you were getting more than three to one

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Speaker 3: now they do. I might just wait, play my spots,

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Speaker 3: maybe play them at home against Cincinnati. Really tough place

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Speaker 3: to play. And as we mentioned, of those top three

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Speaker 3: or four teams, they played only two of them, both

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Speaker 3: of them are at home. Yeah, I mean, I really

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Speaker 3: like this team. I'm been searching for a number. Three

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Speaker 3: to one. It feels about right. But I think plumb

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Speaker 3: Lee is the best fit here.

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Speaker 1: I love the CCF team. They bring back Isaiah Bowser,

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Speaker 1: who's head injury issues. But Johnny Richardson really came on

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Speaker 1: when he got hurt last year. The dindn't receiver rhinal'

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Speaker 1: keef is back. They did lose Jalen Robinson to the

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Speaker 1: Portal late. I think he transferred the spring, which did

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Speaker 1: kind of suck. But they bring in Kobe Hudson, who

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Speaker 1: was Auburn's leading receiver last year. They bring in tight

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Speaker 1: end Ken Moore Gamble who was third on Florida. He

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Speaker 1: led Florida and receiving touchdowns last year. These are leading

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Speaker 1: receivers in the SEC. So, you know, suck. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: the defense how good it was last year. They bring

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Speaker 1: in a ton of transfers there. They bring in, you know,

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Speaker 1: two fcs, all Americans, Kobe Perry at safety and Jason

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Speaker 1: Johnson at linebacker, so they kind of did help shore

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Speaker 1: up some of those holes. They do was big Cat

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Speaker 1: Brian up front, but I think their secondary is good

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Speaker 1: enough to kind of withstand that loss. They get Houston

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Speaker 1: and Cincinnati at home. You throw out that that twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty COVID season where you know fans weren't in attendance.

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Speaker 1: They haven't lost the game at home since twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 1: So I actually do like the over eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: I bet that weeks ago and it was even money.

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Speaker 1: It's it's juiced a little bit, but I would still

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Speaker 1: probably take it. And then I do like them the

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Speaker 1: win the conference because like I said, I think they do.

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Speaker 1: This is one of those another spots where it is

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Speaker 1: very very key to shop around because at FanDuel they

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Speaker 1: are the favorite to win the conference at plus two ten,

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Speaker 1: but at DraftKings they have they have the third odds.

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Speaker 1: They're plus three twenty at DraftKings, so that's a pretty

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Speaker 1: big difference. And yeah, like I said, if you're getting

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Speaker 1: them the favorite at one book and the third best

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Speaker 1: at the at another, so I would go ahead and

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Speaker 1: jump on them at DraftKings.

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Speaker 3: fIF team like for year one of Gus last year,

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Speaker 3: a lot of bad injury luck. I mean, look that

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Speaker 3: Gabriel got hurt throwing a freshman of the fire. They

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Speaker 3: had a lot of injuries across the user. But then

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Speaker 3: if you look how they finished a lot of momentum

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Speaker 3: company this year. I think they finished six to one

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Speaker 3: including a Bowl win over Florida. So yeah, and I

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Speaker 3: love some of the transfers they brought in. I agree.

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Speaker 3: I'm really high on this team as you are.

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Speaker 2: I think we're all in agreement there. We'll turn to

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Speaker 2: a team that potentially could be more divisive, and that's SMU.

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Speaker 2: Sitting at seven wins. New head coach lastly comes in

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Speaker 2: minus one twenty if you go with the over twelve

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Speaker 2: to one to win the AAC. They're seventeenth and projected

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Speaker 2: SP plus offensive efficiency sixty second on the defensive side

345
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Speaker 2: of the ball, but the defense they weren't very good

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Speaker 2: last year for starters they only returned three from that unit.

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Speaker 2: Could be even worse this season under Scott Simmons. And

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Speaker 2: when you look at the schedule, kind of a little

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Speaker 2: bit sneaky in the first month. That is leading me

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Speaker 2: in the direction of under I do like Mordecai. I'd

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Speaker 2: like what they've been able to do offensively, but I

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Speaker 2: think they're going to be in a lot of shootouts.

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Speaker 2: And when I look at a game like at Maryland's,

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Speaker 2: if that's the swing game for the season, I don't

355
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Speaker 2: feel great about them getting any stops against tagavalois so

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Speaker 2: I'm going to go ahead with under as I play here,

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Speaker 2: and I don't buy them as being a fringe, you know,

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Speaker 2: top throwing in quotes the top four for the AAC.

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Speaker 2: I think this is a three horse race at the top,

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Speaker 2: so I don't see the mustangs there. I'll start this

361
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Speaker 2: time with I L. What are your thoughts on SMU

362
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Speaker 2: trying to replace some pieces and really rework a defense

363
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Speaker 2: that let them down in big spots last year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely agree with you. I think it's a

365
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Speaker 1: three team race. I think there's a bigger gap there.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not as down on them as you are.

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Speaker 1: I actually lean over, I'm not playing it. I really

368
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Speaker 1: like the higher rett last year, so I actually leaned

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Speaker 1: the over, but I'm not going to play it. I'm

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Speaker 1: staying away.

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Speaker 2: What do you think sucky?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, really high variance team Pierre, So I can see

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Speaker 3: it going either way. I mean, the hope with Simons

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Speaker 3: is that he's going to come in with a new

375
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Speaker 3: scheme that generates a lot more pressure. I think they

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Speaker 3: had like a three point three percent sacrayl so they

377
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Speaker 3: couldn't get any pressure. But the defense is certainly a concern.

378
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Speaker 3: They lose you know, a couple stud wide receivers in

379
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Speaker 3: a tight end, but they reloaded in that aspect. The

380
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Speaker 3: offense should be absolutely electric again, but they brought in

381
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Speaker 3: fifteen Power five transfers I think about one hundred and

382
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Speaker 3: twenty total start to via the transfer portal. So it's like,

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Speaker 3: how are they all going to fit together? You also

384
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Speaker 3: have a new defensive coordinator, new head coach is gonna

385
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Speaker 3: call and play, so a lot of moving pieces here

386
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Speaker 3: and they're very er reliant. So yeah, I don't really

387
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Speaker 3: love this schedule. You know, you do get Sincy at home,

388
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Speaker 3: but since he's coming off of a bye, you get

389
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Speaker 3: TCU at home in the non con. But they're coming

390
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Speaker 3: off of a bye, so little things like that mayke

391
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Speaker 3: it a little sneaky tough. They go to UCF. They

392
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Speaker 3: also host Houston and Memphis, so it's a pretty tough

393
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Speaker 3: schedule even go to Maryland. This is a stay away

394
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Speaker 3: team from a betting perspective before the year. I think

395
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Speaker 3: it's let's see how things shake out early in the

396
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Speaker 3: non con and then play them on a game the

397
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Speaker 3: game basis, So I'm staying away from SMU preseason.

398
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Speaker 2: Let's take a look at a team depending on the book.

399
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,400
Speaker 2: I'm sure Ianello can drop in either seven or seven

400
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 2: and a half for Memphis wins offense projected by SP

401
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 2: plus fifty second sixty seventh on the defensive side of

402
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Speaker 2: the ball, Listen, the playmakers are back in the backfield

403
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,520
Speaker 2: to get seth Henigan off of a promising season as

404
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,320
Speaker 2: a first year starter. Clark Brandon Thomas. They bring in

405
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Speaker 2: Jabon Ducker from NIU at running back, so that's a

406
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 2: really deep running back room. But the headline here, No

407
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 2: Calvin Austin the third just sparked those big plays. He

408
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,160
Speaker 2: did it, you know, taking short passes long, doing things

409
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Speaker 2: on special teams. He's gone three new offensive line starters

410
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,719
Speaker 2: and only two back from a defense that was not

411
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Speaker 2: all that good last year, particularly against the past one

412
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Speaker 2: hundred and third in terms of passing yordage allowed last season.

413
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Speaker 2: And they start at Mississippi State, so not a great

414
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Speaker 2: time to be locking your wounds in the secondary the

415
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Speaker 2: rest of the state.

416
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Speaker 3: The stage time with revenge too from a ridiculous loss

417
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Speaker 3: last year, I'm sure they're going to be out for blood.

418
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Speaker 2: Just been a lot of overs with this team because

419
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Speaker 2: given everything that they have back, if they can not

420
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Speaker 2: necessarily with the single player, but if they can piece

421
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Speaker 2: it together and try to replace some of the big

422
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Speaker 2: plays from Calvin Austin, I think this could be, you know,

423
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Speaker 2: a top thirty offense, but the defense could easily be

424
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Speaker 2: in the one hundreds. I was shocked to see sixty

425
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Speaker 2: seven attached to them in SP plus. I don't necessarily

426
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Speaker 2: see that Matt Barnes in a defensive coordinator. Maybe he

427
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,000
Speaker 2: worked some kind of but I feel like I'm pretty

428
00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,439
Speaker 2: good understanding of who this Memphis team is. I think

429
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Speaker 2: they're going to play some entertaining games throughout the season.

430
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:09,920
Speaker 2: Play Arkansas State at home, they get North Texas at

431
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 2: home in the non conference. There's gonna be some high

432
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 2: scorning games. There's gonna be some some good feelings. But

433
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 2: I do not see them even flirting with being a

434
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 2: top two team in title game. Where are you on, Memphis?

435
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 2: This is like kind of a team who's been treading

436
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 2: water since their connon Bowl berth against Penn State, and

437
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 2: they've not clearly not been able to get back to

438
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 2: those heights. But it should be a program that, at

439
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:35,560
Speaker 2: least from a recruiting standpoint, they're geographically ideally located, you know,

440
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 2: They've they've been working their way up and have established

441
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 2: themselves really in the last you know, five to ten

442
00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:44,640
Speaker 2: years first under twinte as a program to be respected.

443
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 2: Where do you see them in maybe a transition year.

444
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 2: It could either go up or down, they could go

445
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:50,880
Speaker 2: in a different direction at head coach.

446
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the numbers right right. I mean I

447
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 3: project them right around seven and a half. I think

448
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 3: they're gonna be in a lot of close games again.

449
00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 3: I think they've got four and four and one possession

450
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 3: games last year, and you get see a lot of

451
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 3: these games like at ECU, at Tulane, home against Houston,

452
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 3: home against uc Aflete just going down. You could see

453
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 3: all these games being one possession. I mean, I'm been

454
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 3: worried about the defensive move They have new coordinators too,

455
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:12,680
Speaker 3: so and the one thing I'll caution you about with

456
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 3: the overs is they did start to play slower at

457
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 3: the end of last year. But you have a new

458
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:19,200
Speaker 3: offensive quarter and I'm really worried about the defensive line.

459
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 3: They also lose an all conference linebacker and just the

460
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 3: loss of Austin I don't is massive from a big

461
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 3: play perspective. He was just in a walking explosive play.

462
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,879
Speaker 3: So you know, they've been Bowl eligible eight years, but

463
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 3: at eight straight years, but I think they're kind of

464
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 3: trending a little bit down. But like I said, I

465
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 3: projected this spot on and uh so, I have no

466
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 3: interest in Memphis.

467
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 1: Mike, you know that that's the thing with Memphis, whom

468
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,160
Speaker 1: we're a bust team. I think you know, you look

469
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,439
Speaker 1: at their schedule. They lost the Temple by three, they

470
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 1: lost to Tulsa by six, They lost the ECU by

471
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 1: one in overtime. So they had all those coin flip

472
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:55,919
Speaker 1: games last year and they went six and six. Sucky

473
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 1: just mentioned that eight straight Bowl seasons, the longest streak

474
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 1: in the G five. I do think they continue that.

475
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 1: Quindall Johnson's back at safety. He had one hundred and

476
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 1: five tackles last year. Anytime your safety makes one hundred

477
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: and five tackles, it's not a great indicator of the

478
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 1: rest of your defense in front of him. But I

479
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 1: do like Seth hen again, I think they go bowling again.

480
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:16,959
Speaker 1: I think they're pushing that seven to eight wins. If

481
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 1: they flip a couple of those one possession games, they

482
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,200
Speaker 1: can get to eight. I'll lean over, but I don't

483
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 1: know that I'll play it.

484
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, they have a high floor because you have home

485
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 3: games against Arc State, North Texas, Temple North Alabama. There

486
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 3: was probably like five free home wins on their schedule,

487
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, but I think it's they're going to end

488
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 3: probably seven or eight, And it comes down to a

489
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 3: couple of points with games that you might after you

490
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 3: see some things, just be able to bet during the

491
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 3: year and not tie off your money all season when

492
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 3: it comes down to like their game at home against

493
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 3: UCF or at two lane and back to back weeks.

494
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 2: The next team I'd like to discuss is kind of

495
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 2: a good reminder that you need to emotionally divorce two things.

496
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 2: How do you feel about a team playing on a

497
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:03,359
Speaker 2: new field against any opponent, and how you evaluate them

498
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 2: in their power rankings And on the other side, what

499
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 2: does their schedule actually look like? East Carolina set at

500
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 2: six and a half as PPLUS doesn't particularly like them

501
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 2: on either side of the ball, seventy fifth on offense,

502
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 2: seventy ninth on defense. I think they're undervalued offensively. Listen,

503
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: they won four or five down the stretch last year.

504
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 2: Holden Aylers has started thirty seven games. I know He's

505
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 2: a high variance guy. When he's locked in, he can

506
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 2: make plays to win. He can also turn the ball

507
00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 2: over and have accuracy issues and kind of throw you

508
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 2: out of games. But he's not a one man show.

509
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 2: He's got Keton Mitchell, one of the best freshman running

510
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 2: backs in the country last year. Three starters on the

511
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 2: offensive line. It's a mystery right now with c. J.

512
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 2: Johnson at wide receiver. He's suspended. How long is he suspended?

513
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 2: He's still on the roster, he's practicing. And then also

514
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,239
Speaker 2: you'll get all wide receivers that bring in. They bring

515
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 2: in Isaiah Winstead from Toledo, Jarrett Garner from Duke, they

516
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 2: get a big Georgia transfer in Jalen Johnson. He'll be

517
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 2: a starter at wide out. So I'm not gonncerned offensive yet.

518
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 2: East Carolina. The back of this schedule is pure nightmare fuel.

519
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,680
Speaker 2: Starting on October twenty second home against UCF at BYU

520
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 2: at Cincinnati home against Houston, all in a five week span.

521
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 2: That's enough for me to just to stay away because

522
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 2: I really like this Pirate team. But six and a half,

523
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 2: I struggle to see them getting there without you know,

524
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 2: at least upsetting one of those teams and the fact

525
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 2: that you know they gave b YU a good game

526
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: last year, but they're at BYU this year. I just

527
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 2: don't see it. So I'm gonna go ahead and pass

528
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 2: on the Pirates. I know what are your thoughts on

529
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 2: a team that I'll always speak for you on this one.

530
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 2: I feel like we both want them to break through

531
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 2: and to get some bigger wins, and we like Mike

532
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,479
Speaker 2: Houston as a head coach, but I don't know if

533
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 2: it's setting up for a good year on the high

534
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 2: seas for the Pirates.

535
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 1: I want them to be good so badly. Holan Aylers

536
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 1: is like my little puppy who he's so cute. I

537
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 1: love him so much, but he just will not stop

538
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 1: being in the house. No matter how hard we try

539
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,440
Speaker 1: to get him to be a good dog. He just

540
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,959
Speaker 1: doesn't get better. You know, he was so promising as

541
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: a sophomore twenty nine touchdowns, ten picks. All right, comes

542
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 1: back last year eighteen touchdowns, nine picks, are twenty twenty.

543
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: Then last year eighteen touchdowns again ten picks. He just

544
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 1: like doesn't We're waiting for him to take that massive

545
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 1: step forward and he just doesn't do it the other

546
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: than that was frustrated by EC last year. As you

547
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 1: mentioned Mitchell and Roggie Harris. These are two guys that

548
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,919
Speaker 1: Rogie Harris was at all AEC and twenty twenty Mitchell

549
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: was in twenty twenty one to all AAC running backs.

550
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,719
Speaker 1: Yet they've finished sixty third in the country in rushing.

551
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 3: Why why give offensive coordinator stings?

552
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, like, give these two studs the ball every game,

553
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: every playing, you know, and then you have aler it's

554
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 1: like their offense. I agree with you, Breeze. I think

555
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 1: they're undervalued, but they should be even better than they are.

556
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 1: And it's so frustrating to watch them because they have

557
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: so many weapons and so much talent and they just

558
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 1: do dumb things at like the worst possible time. The defense,

559
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 1: you know, it does need to be better, especially against

560
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 1: the pass. They lose Jaquan McMillan, who's one of the best,

561
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: you know, defenders in the conference. That's a huge loss

562
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: for them. The one thing I do like about their

563
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 1: schedule is this is the first time they have seven

564
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 1: home games since twenty eighteen, so that is a nice break.

565
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 1: You know, they have a great fan base down there,

566
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: so I do expect you know Daddy Finland Stadium to

567
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,960
Speaker 1: be rocking, But I'm with you where I'm just I'm

568
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 1: staying away because I just know if I invest in

569
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: this team, I'm going to get frustrated. And like you mentioned,

570
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to have six wins by Halloween to

571
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 1: hit this win total. So I just I can't do it.

572
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts stuck in?

573
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're a weird team that they've played. They're gonna

574
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 3: play a lot. They played a lot of close games

575
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 3: last year, and they're over the last couple of years

576
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 3: with alors like they're gonna have. They're gonna pull off

577
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 3: a big upset in one of those games, but then

578
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 3: they're also gonna lose to some.

579
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 1: They're they're listening Navy at home, and like, I am worried.

580
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,439
Speaker 3: About their Secondard McMillan by some I think my pff

581
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 3: Adam is the highest graded corner in off college football

582
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: last year, big loss. I am worried about their SECONDAR.

583
00:26:57,960 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 3: But then I look at their schedule and I'm like,

584
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 3: which like they play? Here are the teams like NC State, ODU, Campbell, Navy, USF, Tulane, Memphis.

585
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 3: I mean say us ucfs plumbly b yu since these

586
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 3: receivers aren't great temple like so like I'm not if

587
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:15,239
Speaker 3: you look at their schedule, it's like you're not going

588
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 3: to face a ton of prolific passing attacks. But I

589
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 3: am worried about their their defensive row. I don't like that.

590
00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 3: I think their offensive coordinator is just bad. It is

591
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 3: what it comes down to when you look at some

592
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 3: of the pieces. So yeah, I project them right around six,

593
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 3: and I think they'll probably end up finishing six and six.

594
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: But I think it all comes out of the Week one.

595
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 3: I think there's a good chance they can upset NC State,

596
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,959
Speaker 3: and if they do, it's like all the momentum from

597
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 3: that win, as long as they don't, you know, celebrate

598
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 3: to our loose old dominion next week at home. But

599
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 3: the menu from that win could send this team to

600
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 3: the moon. A loss, a bad loss, like things could

601
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:55,199
Speaker 3: get ugly. But look, these two teams hate each other,

602
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 3: these two fan bases hate each other. Greenville on that Saturday,

603
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 3: NC State, with all this hype they're trying to deal with,

604
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 3: have to go on the road to open the season.

605
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 3: They're ten ten and a half. What ers, I'm playing

606
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 3: easy plus ten and a half week one. I'll tell

607
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 3: you that. And I think that game really determines the

608
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 3: path of the Pirates this year, and that one should

609
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,239
Speaker 3: be fun home team past twenty years or so has

610
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 3: dominated that series.

611
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 2: Far be it from MENSI state to have a huge

612
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 2: letdown with huge expectations on their shoulders. Yeah, I agree.

613
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 2: I think that the fans are going to be lit

614
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 2: up for that one. They're going to spend all all

615
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 2: morning at sup Dogs get getting fueled up for the game.

616
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're all pulling for ECU. I just don't

617
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 2: see it based on their schedule. All right, I'm going

618
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 2: to bundle together the next two teams, not because their

619
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 2: names are pretty close and their projected wins, but we're

620
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 2: going to talk Tulane and Tulsa as a two pack here.

621
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 2: So Tulane projected six wins fifty to one to win

622
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 2: the AAC. Forty first defense, ninety fifth on defense, sorry,

623
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 2: forty first on offense, ninety fifth on defense. I think

624
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 2: you can make a claim that Hurricane Ida really threw

625
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 2: a monkey mention to this program last year. I understan

626
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 2: that's you know, it threw them off for like a

627
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 2: ten day period and they end up going two and

628
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 2: ten on the whole season. But listen, there was there

629
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 2: was hope when they almost upset Oklahoma and then everything

630
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: fell apart. But what they did in the off season

631
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 2: is what I want to see from a program that

632
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 2: under Willie Fritz has actually been, you know, a pretty

633
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 2: pretty solid program, someone that you can rely on to

634
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 2: get to that you know, six win threshold. He brought

635
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 2: in six new coaches. He's not going to sit on

636
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 2: his hands in the spot. He brings Michael Pratt back,

637
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 2: a quarterback, four starters on the offensive line. Ty J.

638
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 2: Spears is finally back healthy. He came back at the

639
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: end of last year and blew up. The defense was

640
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 2: awful to start the season, but then borderline good down

641
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 2: the stretch. They allowed three hundred and fifty four total

642
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 2: yards and twenty two points per game in their last five.

643
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 2: I love their linebacking Cort Nick Anderson and Dorian Williams.

644
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 2: The schedule at the beginning kind of sets up for

645
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 2: some nice momentum with UMass and Alcorn. So I'm buying

646
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 2: on the Green Wave in this spot, turning my attention

647
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 2: to the Golden Hurricane five and a half wins for

648
00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: their win total twenty five to one to win the

649
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 2: AC eightieth on offense, seventy third on defense in S

650
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 2: and P plus projection. They're still playing the three three five,

651
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 2: but Joe Gillespie is gone. He's off to TCU as

652
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 2: defensive coordinator. That's what made this team special, That's what

653
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 2: made them a difficult out every single game in conference play.

654
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 2: Nine new starters on that defensive side of the ball,

655
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 2: green offensive line, no more Shamari Brooks. I think the

656
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: way that I'm gonna play this is I'm not gonna

657
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 2: have a preseason play on Tulsa, but I'm gonna look

658
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 2: for them to get a hot start piece Their schedule

659
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 2: is so favorable early on at Wyoming. The Pokes are

660
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 2: a mess right now. Northern Illinois at home. If they

661
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 2: can steal a win there and then be Jacksonville State

662
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 2: the following week, I think they'll be overly inflated in

663
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 2: terms of public perception and looking back on how they've

664
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: played the last three or four years. That's what I'm

665
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 2: gonna fadela. So I'll pitch it to both of you guys,

666
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 2: Tulane and Tulsa as a two pack. Are you buying both?

667
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 2: Are you selling both or is in the mixed bag? Iella,

668
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 2: how about you?

669
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: First, I'm with you. I'm way higher on Kulane. I

670
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 1: really like they're over. And then I also lean the

671
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 1: Tulsa under and for me you said there are similar

672
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: It really comes down to, as you mentioned, is what

673
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 1: both teams have done with the coordinator position, with you know,

674
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: tols To losing their DC. I actually really liked the

675
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: OC too. Lame brought in Jim's Fobodah. I know, Breeze,

676
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: you love you love the Division two an FCS coaches

677
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: coming up. He's been the head coach at Cention Missouri

678
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,240
Speaker 1: for twelve years, so really experienced coach taken over and

679
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,239
Speaker 1: like you mentioned that with Willie Fritz, you know, they

680
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 1: gassed every single offensive assistant except for the tight ends coach.

681
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 1: So I love when you know that kind of accountability.

682
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 1: The Oklahoma game, Michael Pratt hurt his shoulder in that

683
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 1: game and he was hurt pretty much the entire season,

684
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: and I think it showed. And he was so good

685
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: as a freshman. He led all freshmen touchdowns eighteen hundred

686
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 1: yards twenty touchdowns, ran for eight and twenty twenty. Really

687
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 1: lost that rushing ability last year. I think his injury

688
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 1: was a big part of that. And when you look

689
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: at these two teams, the quarterbacks difference. To me, I'm

690
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: very very high on Michael Pratt and Davis Bryntan stinks.

691
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 1: He led the entire country and interceptions. He's the only

692
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: Tulsa quarterback who attempted to pass last year, so he's

693
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 1: there all they have. They have no depth behind him.

694
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: If he gets hurt, they're screwed. So other than Tulsa,

695
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: you know, other than one Carlos Santana, who is about

696
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 1: the funnest, one of the funner names in college football,

697
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: There's not a whole like about this Tulsa team that

698
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: I like. So I'm much higher on to An. I

699
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 1: was actually trying to find draftings has head ahead win

700
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 1: total bets, and I was really hoping they would give

701
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: me Tulane over Tulsa. They did not, But if I

702
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: can find that, I would definitely bet that one. Kwayne

703
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 1: has a lot of wide receiver depth. They bring back

704
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 1: Taj Spears, I'm bringing I'm going high on the Green

705
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 1: Wave as well. Ride the Wave.

706
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. These are my two bets so far

707
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 3: in the AFC are Tulane over six plus one ten

708
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 3: and Tulsa under six. You can still find minus one

709
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 3: twenty out there. There's a lot of correlations they play

710
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 3: each other. The game is at Tulsa, but Tulane is

711
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 3: coming off of a bye before that game. Revenge for

712
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 3: last year I had Tulane. They missed a twenty four

713
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 3: yardfield goal to win the game and then lost in overtime. Infuriating.

714
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 3: But if you look at Tulane last year, just horrendous luck.

715
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 3: You mentioned the Hurricane Ida, they'd have moved to Birmingham

716
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 3: for a month. Also, the game against Oklahoma which they

717
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 3: almost won, was supposed to be in New Orleans that

718
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 3: got moved to Norman, got moved to a true road game. Also,

719
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 3: here were the first eight FBS teams that they played Oklahoma, OH, MISS, UAB, Houston, SMU, UC, SINCEY,

720
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 3: and EC. Just one of the hardest schedule that I've

721
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 3: ever seen for a group of five team to start

722
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 3: the year. I think that caught up to the terrible

723
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 3: turnover luck, projected interceptions versus actual zero to five and

724
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 3: one possession games, so many positive aggression signs for this team.

725
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 3: There was also rumors that the offense hated shiplong, morale issues,

726
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 3: locker room problems, so I love that they got rid

727
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 3: of him, brought in Swoboda, who actually took over the

728
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 3: head coach Central Missouri after Fritz left back in twenty ten.

729
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 3: I think he's gonna bring some West Coast principles to

730
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 3: this spread option offense, get rid of the ball quicker,

731
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 3: which I think was one issue that Pratt has. But

732
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 3: then his offense always had a lot of explosiveness, so

733
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 3: I think the offense is gonna get a huge bump

734
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 3: for him. And then if you look at the schedule,

735
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 3: yes they go to Houston and too Sincy, but those

736
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 3: are probably losses anyway. So they're on the road a

737
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: fair assumption as they start three and one out of conference,

738
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 3: but at Kansas State is not not winnable. But let's

739
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 3: say they're three and three in those six games. There

740
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 3: are other six, four at home, two on the road.

741
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 3: The two road games are at Tulsa we're low on

742
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,280
Speaker 3: and at USF And then you know the four home games.

743
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 3: You know, out of those six, I've been favored in

744
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 3: four and then the other two true coin flips. So

745
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 3: getting over six of plus money, I love. I love

746
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 3: a lot of things about this two lane team, and

747
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 3: then Tulsa. I agree with you guys, the loss just

748
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 3: how much I love the offensive coordinator coming in for

749
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 3: two lane. The loss of the defensive coordinator, Gulespie for

750
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 3: Tulsa's men. I think he's one of the best defensive

751
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 3: coordinators in college football, so underrated. And then then their

752
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 3: defense just lost a ton. I mean, especially losing player

753
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 3: that's just a massive loss. Him and Stevenson in the middle.

754
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 3: That three to three five, those two defensive tackles up

755
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 3: front did so much for that defense. Now you have

756
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 3: inexperienced secondary, you lose two tackles to the NFL A lot. Yeah,

757
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 3: I don't like about this Tulsa team, and I don't

758
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 3: like their schedule. If you look at some of the

759
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 3: spots on their schedule, you know, like they play the

760
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 3: two worst teams in the AAC, but both come on

761
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 3: the road, and they only have like one or two

762
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,399
Speaker 3: locks on the schedule, even at Wyoming the market it's

763
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 3: like a pick that game. Yeah, So I don't really

764
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 3: look at the schedule like some of the nuances of it.

765
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 3: So love the under on Tulsa. I think two Lane

766
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 3: picks them off. At Tulsa, and that will do wonders

767
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 3: for both win totals. So I know there's some correlation there,

768
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 3: but buying the green wave, fading.

769
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 2: The gold Amerricane, bundling those two together seem to bring

770
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 2: out some spicy takes from you two guys. I believe

771
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 2: the three of us are all in agreement in terms

772
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,720
Speaker 2: of playing the over on Tulane and the under on Tulsa.

773
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: Let's see if we can do the same with this

774
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 2: two pack, both sitting at four and a half wins

775
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 2: as their win total fifty to one for South Florida

776
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 2: win the AAC one hundred to one for Navy. We'll

777
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:14,720
Speaker 2: start with USF sixty eighth and projected sp plus offense

778
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 2: one hundred and six defense. This is make a break

779
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 2: de sign for Jeff Scott, the former Clemson OC is

780
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,879
Speaker 2: three and eighteen in two years. But this offense could

781
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,879
Speaker 2: pop at least, you know, by recent standards, in twenty

782
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 2: twenty two. If Timmy McLean ends up, you know, taking

783
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 2: a stranglehold of this job and gets a little more accurate,

784
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: he could be a very fun dual threat. They have

785
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 2: nine starters back on offense. They bring in two P

786
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 2: five wide receiver transfers in Brown from North Carolina and

787
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,839
Speaker 2: Joe from Clemson, and their defense the four two five look.

788
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 2: The entire back seven returns with a new defensive coordinator,

789
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: Bob's Shoop, a former Broils Award finalist. He has to

790
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:51,359
Speaker 2: create more havoc. They were one hundred and twenty fifth

791
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 2: and tackles for loss last year. They can't get away

792
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 2: with that. The schedule is not too in many favors

793
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,359
Speaker 2: byu F Florida at Louisville, but four and a half.

794
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 2: I'm bullish on the Bulls. I'm going to go over

795
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,919
Speaker 2: USF four and a half Navy same number, one hundred

796
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 2: to one to win the AAC one hundred and twenty

797
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,239
Speaker 2: second on the offensive side of the ball, eighty ninth defensively,

798
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:15,560
Speaker 2: ken Nea Motalolo, Listen, the guy has been a legends

799
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 2: in Annapolis. Twenty fifteen to twenty nineteen. They go forty

800
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 2: one and twenty five. They've been digging out of that

801
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:23,760
Speaker 2: ever since seven to fifteen. Across the last two seasons.

802
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 2: They get the boost emotionally from beating Army in that

803
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 2: awesome finale. Two seniors two juniors return on the offensive line.

804
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 2: Diego Fugau is gone, which is sad, you know, in

805
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 2: terms of everything he meant to the program on that

806
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 2: side of the ball. But they do bring back six defenders.

807
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 2: But John Nichols is an awesome kicker. He's a nice

808
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 2: plus in some close games. And the season can get

809
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 2: started in a positive way with Delaware and Memphis at

810
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 2: home back to back. That Memphis game, I think they'll

811
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 2: be an underdog game, but I wouldn't be shocked if

812
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 2: they could run right through around by a Tigers defense

813
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 2: that struggles. But they do draw at air Force, at

814
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 2: un at SMU since he at home at Houston Notre Dame.

815
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 2: Just the hits just keep on coming. So because of that,

816
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 2: it's a stay away from me at four and a half,

817
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:12,320
Speaker 2: just because of so many challenging road games against quality opponents.

818
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 2: But I'm a little bit more optimistic than I was

819
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 2: at mid season last year when it looked like it

820
00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 2: could be the ends of the era there in Annapolis.

821
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 2: So what are your thoughts on these two teams South

822
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:25,720
Speaker 2: Florida and Navy. You'll start with you stuffy.

823
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 3: South Florida look one of the most experienced teams of

824
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 3: the country. I think they crushed the portal. That's just

825
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 3: hard to find wins. Like what they they were all

826
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 3: in three and one possession games last year, and like

827
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:37,399
Speaker 3: this is the year, like you said, for Jess Scott,

828
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 3: what do they have one free win on their and

829
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 3: they got to go to Temple one free win is

830
00:38:43,280 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 3: Howard at home on their schedule. The one thing that

831
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 3: I'll i'll mention is that Week one game against BYU.

832
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 3: I think people are like, oh, this line looks so

833
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 3: low humidity humidity on one September first in Tampa against

834
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 3: a team not used to it, it could be a massive,

835
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,399
Speaker 3: massive edge for South Florida. I think the last time

836
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 3: BYU went to USF was three years ago and it

837
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:12,720
Speaker 3: was what's his name, Jaredhill's first start actually in college football,

838
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:14,839
Speaker 3: and USF pulled off the upset. It was like ninety

839
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:16,360
Speaker 3: five percent you into the that day and they had

840
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 3: a big comeback, the two huge touchdown drive at the

841
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,800
Speaker 3: end of the game with BYU worn down. So just

842
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 3: throwing that out there.

843
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 1: I don't know.

844
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,759
Speaker 3: I think the numbers about right USF and then with Navy,

845
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 3: I hate playing Service Academy win totals because they play

846
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 3: each other and then like they understand the scheme so well,

847
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 3: and you know, those games a lot of times can

848
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 3: go either way. Who's running the ball for Navy, by

849
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 3: the way, they're leading returning rushers or receiver, and you

850
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 3: can't really look at returning production on their offensive lines.

851
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 3: For Service Academies, they always just reload and it doesn't

852
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 3: really matter. But the running look, this team has just

853
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 3: gone like this. It's just on the downward trajectory ever

854
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 3: since they lost Malcolm Perry, who recently retired with a legend.

855
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 3: I have a lot of questions about Navy. They only

856
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 3: have five home games. And also something that I will mention,

857
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:00,720
Speaker 3: I don't have a play on either these two teams.

858
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 3: It's just hard to find enough wins on their schedules.

859
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 3: Cut block rule for Service Academy teams this year, how

860
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 3: much does that impact their offenses? It's TVD. How much

861
00:40:11,040 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 3: is it going to be enforced? We don't know. Is

862
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 3: it just gonna be like, hey, we're gonna throw the

863
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,399
Speaker 3: flag on this a couple times early in the season

864
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 3: and then forget about it, or it's like constant and

865
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 3: then it's you, here's the thing, like, you can't get

866
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 3: behind the sticks if you're your drive is over. So

867
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 3: if you're throwing two of these flags on the new

868
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:34,240
Speaker 3: cut block rule a game and you're ruining two drives,

869
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 3: it's massive, But we don't know how much. But that's

870
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 3: that's something that could really hinder maybe this year with

871
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 3: all brand new running backs.

872
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: The South Florida number makes me so so so angry

873
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 1: because I love this team and that number is ridiculous.

874
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: Like suck said, where are five wins on this schedule?

875
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 1: You know we mentioned it with with two lane and stuff.

876
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 1: Is yet you actually want to get since Cincinnati and

877
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 1: Houston on the road, you don't want to waste home

878
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 1: games on games you're not gonna win. And while they

879
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 1: do get those on the road, other than Howard, their

880
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:12,240
Speaker 1: other two most winnable games are at Temple and at Tulsa.

881
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 1: So the fact that they have to go on their

882
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 1: road to both of them. You know, their home games

883
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:20,720
Speaker 1: UCF SMU like those are still tough games, Tulane East Carolina.

884
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: Can they maybe pull off one of those? Sure? But

885
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 1: then at Florida at Louisville, you know, if they can

886
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 1: maybe flip BYU. But I don't you know, they're not

887
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 1: getting a five. How many games are they going to

888
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 1: be favored in one, maybe two, maybe they get you know,

889
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,800
Speaker 1: maybe they're probably favored at Temple. You know at Tulsa

890
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 1: is probably close, so you're gonna be favoring two games

891
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 1: at the most. So to have to pull off three

892
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 1: to four upsets is just too much to ask. But

893
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: from a week to week standpoint, you know, they bring

894
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,879
Speaker 1: back their quarterback who probably won't even win the job

895
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: because Jerry Bohannon transferred to from Baylor, so they have

896
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 1: literally the big twelves winning quarterback there. They bring back

897
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 1: the run, they bring back their receivers, they bring back

898
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 1: all five offensive linemen a Joe with Joe transfers in

899
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 1: from Clemson. They returned Brian Battie there, you know, stud

900
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 1: kick returner who I do hope they get him the

901
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,399
Speaker 1: ball more on offense than they did last last year.

902
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 1: They finished one hundred and twenty third in defense last year,

903
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 1: which is obviously an issue. But they bring back their

904
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:23,280
Speaker 1: entire secondary. They bring back all their linebackers. You mentioned.

905
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 1: They have new OC Bob Shue, who's you know, former

906
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: DC for Vanderbilt, Penn State, Tennessee, Mississippi State. He's been

907
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 1: an SEC Big ten defensive coordinator, and Stuck mentioned it

908
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 1: their biggest issue was they didn't get pressure and tackles

909
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 1: for loss. Well, I read this score from Bob Shoot

910
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:42,479
Speaker 1: and I was ready to run through a wall. He said,

911
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 1: it's going to be a full court press for sixty

912
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,560
Speaker 1: minutes from the first snap to the last snap of

913
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:50,919
Speaker 1: the game. Fire me up, baby, I love the balls.

914
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 1: I'm all in on this team, but I just can't

915
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 1: find five wins. I'm like desperately trying to find them.

916
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 1: When I was doing all my research, I was like

917
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: locked and loaded to take their over, and I pulled

918
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 1: up the books expecting, you know, to get a three

919
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 1: three and a half and I get four and a half.

920
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 1: And I just cannot, cannot cannot find this number no

921
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 1: matter how hard I try. So I am high in

922
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 1: the bulls. I think there again one of those teams

923
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: that they're going to be significantly better in a power

924
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:21,359
Speaker 1: rating standpoint, but it probably won't reflect in their wind

925
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:22,839
Speaker 1: total as much as we'd hope.

926
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 2: Speaking of trying to fire up with fan base and

927
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 2: players with some you know, bullets and board, raw raw material,

928
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 2: Temple is gonna need a lot of that. We're rounding

929
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 2: out the eleven team AAC. We'll make this quick two

930
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 2: and a half for their win total juice minus one

931
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 2: forty to the over and when you go through their

932
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 2: schedule you get it. You know they open at Duke

933
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 2: home against Lafayette, home against Rutgers home against UMass, so

934
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:50,840
Speaker 2: they should be in those games hypothetically, although offensively, s

935
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:52,919
Speaker 2: p plus has them one hundred and twenty fifth on offense,

936
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 2: one hundred on defense. Sean Drayton as a new head coach,

937
00:43:57,080 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 2: the cupboard isn't completely bare. Although I don't like Dwan Mathis.

938
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 2: He looked totally overwhelmed last season. They got drilled in

939
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 2: seven straight losses to end the year. Darvon Hubbard maybe

940
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 2: the only one to keep an eye on in terms

941
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 2: of production. He comes in. He had originally signed with

942
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 2: Texas A and M. He could be a big body,

943
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: physical runner for them. But this team, I'm in full

944
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 2: wait and see mood. I'm not going to play them

945
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,399
Speaker 2: on the over here certainly, And then you know, if

946
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 2: it was a feisty FCS team and not Lafayette, who's

947
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 2: kind of a milling Patriot League team, I'd probably take

948
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 2: a flyer on a money line upset there. But this

949
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 2: schedule I think could produce some fools gold in the

950
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 2: month of September and then when they get into AAC

951
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 2: play in October, going to just go back to the

952
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 2: well and start picking against the owls. Here anything that

953
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 2: I'm missing on this, is there any reason schematically or

954
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 2: a personnel or schedule that would lead you in either

955
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 2: direction on the win total? Stucky?

956
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 3: But they probably they probably should start too and two

957
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 3: with wins over Lafayette and UMass at home. Then where's

958
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 3: where's the third win come from? I mean, yeh uff

959
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 3: at home maybe, but they're gonna so you're probably just

960
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:05,479
Speaker 3: waiting all year to try and rooting for that. Maybe

961
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:09,319
Speaker 3: ECU at the end of the year. Just stay away

962
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,399
Speaker 3: from me. I think the numbers, but what they needed

963
00:45:12,440 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 3: the coach and change Carrie needed to go. But they're

964
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:17,320
Speaker 3: learning another new defense. It's the six head coach in

965
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 3: seven years. They rosters void of talent. They lost their

966
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 3: last seven games by thirty five points on average at

967
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 3: that schedule. Look, there's there's there's three potential wins here

968
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 3: that you can see easily, but it's that's about it.

969
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 3: So I think they're either gonna win two or three games.

970
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 3: I think the numbers priced about right. No, thanks on Temple.

971
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is another team where the schedule, you know,

972
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:46,800
Speaker 1: the opposite of South Florida. The schedule does them favors

973
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 1: where they you know, they probably have the skill level

974
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 1: that they should be a winless team, but they get like,

975
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 1: like Suck said, Lafayette, they get UMass you know, u mess,

976
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 1: probably the worst you know team in the country. They

977
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 1: also get you know, not that I think they're gonna

978
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 1: win them, but Duke and Rutgers. They're probably the two

979
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 1: of the three worst Power five teams in the country.

980
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 1: They do get South Florida, they do get Navy, the

981
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 1: two other worst teams in this conference, but they're just

982
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 1: gonna be really bad again. I'm with you, Breeze. I

983
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 1: do not believe in mathis whatsoever. You look at their

984
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: coordinator changes they made. You know, they bring in the

985
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 1: new head coach who was Texas running back coach last year.

986
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 1: You know, Okay, I don't really know much about him,

987
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,960
Speaker 1: to be honest, but their new offensive coordinator, Danny Langsdorf,

988
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 1: was the Colorado passing game coordinator last year. Colorado was

989
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty seventh in the country in passing success.

990
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,320
Speaker 1: They bring in a new defensive coordinator, Dj Elliott. He

991
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: was the DC for Kansas. Kansas was one hundred and

992
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,720
Speaker 1: twenty ninth in the defensive success rate, So they essentially

993
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 1: hired the two people in the country who were worse

994
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 1: at the jobs than the ones they replaced. So it's

995
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: not like either one of those that are even inspiring

996
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:54,800
Speaker 1: a little bit of confidence. So Temple's going to be horrible.

997
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 1: But their schedule isn't that do.

998
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 2: Or die well end with some pause activity here where

999
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:03,359
Speaker 2: the lightning rounds our favorite win total and our pick

1000
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 2: to win the AAC. I'm going to go ahead with

1001
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 2: the two lane green wave. I think they get it

1002
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 2: all back together this year. Michael Pratts, healthy, new offensive system,

1003
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 2: new play caller ty J. Spears. If he is the

1004
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 2: player that he was when he came back to that

1005
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 2: one game last year, this offense is going to be exciting.

1006
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 2: I know the schedule has, you know, some thorny spots,

1007
00:47:24,080 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 2: but I'm going to go over six and then Houston

1008
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 2: two to one to win the AAC. I think it's

1009
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 2: their time. This will be the coronation for Doug Belk

1010
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 2: will carry him off the field. Buddy Ryan's style and

1011
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 2: then he'll get a head coaching job of his own.

1012
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 2: How about you, stuck you?

1013
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 1: What are you?

1014
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,840
Speaker 2: What's your favorite win total ends play to win the

1015
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 2: AAC in twenty twenty two?

1016
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, two lane over Tulsa under both at six, get

1017
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 3: the six. I'd pay for the sixes that are out there.

1018
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 3: Hollis shot find the best number. But yeah, think the

1019
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:54,359
Speaker 3: offensive coordinator coming in positive aggression for Tulane. The loss

1020
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 3: of the defensive coordinator for Tulsa just massive, and there's

1021
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 3: a lot not to like aut Tulsa's defense and then

1022
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 3: losing two tackles the offensive line. I'll say UCF ends

1023
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,879
Speaker 3: up winning plus three twenty. You can find out there.

1024
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:10,959
Speaker 3: Do you want to get crazy throw some couch change

1025
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 3: on two lane to win the conference?

1026
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm double diving with the Knights. My favorite win

1027
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 1: total is the UCF over eight and a half, and

1028
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 1: I like the UCF plus three twenty to win the conference,

1029
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 1: although I do really like that Houston over six and

1030
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,280
Speaker 1: a half conference wins with the plus one sixty juice.

1031
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,320
Speaker 1: I think that's a much better bet than taking.

1032
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 2: There over for Mike Ianello and Stucky on Mike Calibrey's

1033
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:35,800
Speaker 2: This has been the Big Bets on Campus podcast, the

1034
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 2: Group of Five, Deep Dive. The Action Network has been

1035
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:41,799
Speaker 2: churning out all kinds of college football preseason content, both

1036
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:44,319
Speaker 2: written and audio, so make sure to check all that out.

1037
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:46,359
Speaker 2: We're going to be back next running out the Chief

1038
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:48,879
Speaker 2: five preview series with the Max Stuck. You'll be back

1039
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 2: for that as well, so please keep an eye on

1040
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 2: everything that we're working on here to help you get

1041
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 2: off to a hot start in September. Thanks so much

1042
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 2: for listening.