WEBVTT - The Baseball Card Bubble Can Tell You A Surprising Amount About How Markets Work

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Joe Wisn't Thal and I'm Tracy Alloway. So Tracy,

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<v Speaker 1>we continue with our bubble series this week. Bubbles. Bubbles

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<v Speaker 1>are just the best, aren't they? Yeah? They are? And

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<v Speaker 1>what's amazing is there are so many of them. Should

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<v Speaker 1>we just stop doing other non bubble episodes and just

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<v Speaker 1>do bubbles from here on out? Because we probably could,

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<v Speaker 1>couldn't we? I would be into that. Plus, you know

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<v Speaker 1>new bubbles are being made every day. Yeah, exactly. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we should seriously consider just doing until we've really

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<v Speaker 1>run out of bubbles, and that will be never um.

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<v Speaker 1>But today I'm I'm particularly excited because we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be talking about a bubble in which I was an

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<v Speaker 1>active and enthusiastic participant. Okay, wait, I know you dabbled

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<v Speaker 1>in trade tech stocks in the late ninety nineties, and that,

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<v Speaker 1>of course was a huge bubble. Is it? It's not

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<v Speaker 1>tech stocks? So I guess, now that I think about it,

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<v Speaker 1>I guess I have a personality that's sort of drawn

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<v Speaker 1>to riding bubbles up and then all the way down.

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<v Speaker 1>But no, it's not tech stocks. Do you want to

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<v Speaker 1>take it. It's not beanie bubbles. Is it's beanie bubbles

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<v Speaker 1>Beanie babies? That one I was not into. I'll give

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<v Speaker 1>you a hint. I was a twelve year old boy

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<v Speaker 1>when I was into it in the early nineties. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm really I'm trying to figure out whether or not

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<v Speaker 1>you would have been like trading I don't know, emerging

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<v Speaker 1>market debt during the Asian financial crisis or something, but

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<v Speaker 1>at least how trading Mexican bonds before they play out

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<v Speaker 1>or anything like that. Today, we're gonna be talking about

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<v Speaker 1>the baseball card bubble in the early nineties. Like many

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<v Speaker 1>other twelve thirteen year old boys, I got super into

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<v Speaker 1>baseball cards, both both the ones that were coming out

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<v Speaker 1>out and historical ones. And maybe if you weren't involved

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<v Speaker 1>in it, you didn't remember this, but there was a

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<v Speaker 1>massive surgeon interest for a few years. I think it

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<v Speaker 1>sort of ended in like the mid to late nineties.

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<v Speaker 1>People are paying all kinds of money for them, and

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<v Speaker 1>then it's sort of just disappeared and people stopped doing it. Joe,

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<v Speaker 1>I have to say I was never into baseball cards,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm going to admit something to you really embarrassing

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<v Speaker 1>right now, which is I used to be into magic

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<v Speaker 1>the Gathering, and there was a lot of card collecting

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<v Speaker 1>in that. I suspect that there's some similarities. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think you'll find in our episode that there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of really interesting finance lessons that this bubble has to

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<v Speaker 1>teach about other bubbles. Well, it sounds very cool. Who

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<v Speaker 1>are we talking to today? We're going to be talking

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<v Speaker 1>to Dave Jamison. He is the author of Mint Condition,

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<v Speaker 1>How Baseball Cards Became an American Obsession, and he is

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<v Speaker 1>a labor reporter at the Huffington Post. Let's bring him in. Dave,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you very much for joining us. Welcome to the

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<v Speaker 1>Odd Lots Podcast. Hey guys, thanks a lot for having me.

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<v Speaker 1>First of all, why did you write a book about

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<v Speaker 1>the baseball card bubble? We'll get into what it was,

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<v Speaker 1>but I'm curious what drew you to this story. Were

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<v Speaker 1>you a baseball card collector at the time? Well, Joe,

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<v Speaker 1>like you, I am a man of a certain age.

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<v Speaker 1>We can say, um, I like yourself, I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>what you were. You were born and I was born

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<v Speaker 1>in nineteen seventy eight, and so I was twelve years

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<v Speaker 1>old in nineteen ninety and I was there for the

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<v Speaker 1>same baseball card frenzy that you were, And this was

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<v Speaker 1>a personal obsession of mine, I would say, from age

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<v Speaker 1>seven to about thirteen, and all my friends were crazy

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<v Speaker 1>for it too, and then for whatever reason, around age

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<v Speaker 1>thirteen or fourteen, it it disappeared from my life. And

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<v Speaker 1>my interest was rekindled when I was around getting close

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<v Speaker 1>to thirty years old and my parents were selling the

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<v Speaker 1>house I grew up in and my mom said, You've

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<v Speaker 1>got to come get these baseball cards out of the

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<v Speaker 1>closet because it's full of them, and so that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of sent me down this rabbit hole of oh yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>whatever happened to baseball cards? So your story is very

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<v Speaker 1>similar to mine. I mean I didn't, you know, write

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<v Speaker 1>a book about it or have to get rekindled. But

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<v Speaker 1>I was born in Ni so just two years after you.

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<v Speaker 1>So all the years line up, if they We're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>have to be very careful with this episode, not just

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<v Speaker 1>trading personal stories about collecting cards, because we could probably

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<v Speaker 1>do that for like an hour or two and it

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<v Speaker 1>probably wouldn't be very interesting. Wait, okay, so I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to come in here now. We're not going to do that,

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<v Speaker 1>Tracy here's my excuse to come in as someone who

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<v Speaker 1>knows very little about baseball cards or baseball for that matter.

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<v Speaker 1>What is the point of the cards? Are they? How

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<v Speaker 1>did they come into existence? How did you end up

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<v Speaker 1>with a shoe box full of them? Well, the the

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<v Speaker 1>long story, which I will keep short, it goes way

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<v Speaker 1>back to the eighteen eighties when when baseball cards were

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<v Speaker 1>created basically to market cigarettes um, and they were a

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<v Speaker 1>collectible like any others. And the whole idea was to

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<v Speaker 1>uh collect a certain team, a certain set. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you've got numbers one, three, four, and five, you

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<v Speaker 1>want to find number two in that set. And the

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<v Speaker 1>original idea was you you collect these cards. They look nice.

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<v Speaker 1>You maybe display them at your house, or you pull

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<v Speaker 1>them out when there's company, when company is over. But

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<v Speaker 1>they were always collectibles for years and years, and boys,

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<v Speaker 1>young boys in particular, I love these. There was a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of a lot of baseball card heydays. They were

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<v Speaker 1>huge in the nineteen thirties, they were huge again in

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<v Speaker 1>the nineteen fifties. Eventually, however, around the time Joe and

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<v Speaker 1>I came along, this idea of of baseball cards being

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<v Speaker 1>investments had come along and there's a lot of backstory there.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think, as Joe had had had said earlier,

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<v Speaker 1>there is a lot to this story that that that

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<v Speaker 1>says a lot about bubbles in general and the way

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<v Speaker 1>they work. Tracy, I'm really glad you asked that question,

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<v Speaker 1>like what our baseball cards, because that's probably I would

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<v Speaker 1>have just like skipped over that question. But it is

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<v Speaker 1>actually interesting this idea that they originally you know, they've

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<v Speaker 1>been around for you know, like a hundred and fifty years.

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<v Speaker 1>They're originally marketed, uh, you know, relating to tobacco. When

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<v Speaker 1>I was a kid, the most famous card was I

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<v Speaker 1>and I still remember the Honus Wagner T two O

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<v Speaker 1>six card, uh that I think was specifically like you

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<v Speaker 1>bought it and you got it in a pack of tobacco.

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<v Speaker 1>And I remember the early six in the world, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think Wayne Gretzky owned one. Uh. Tell us about

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<v Speaker 1>this card, Dave, because I assume you know all the

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<v Speaker 1>same lare about it. Yeah, the the the T TOO

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<v Speaker 1>six Honess Wagner is is like generally the most valuable

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<v Speaker 1>car it ever and that's because in part because Wagner

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<v Speaker 1>was was a great player for Pittsburgh and a Hall

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<v Speaker 1>of Famer, but also because the card itself had this

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<v Speaker 1>really unique back story, there was only a limited number

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<v Speaker 1>of them of them printed. Um, there's different theories as

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<v Speaker 1>to why there was. You know, people think there was

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<v Speaker 1>this dispute, you know that that Wagner didn't want to

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<v Speaker 1>be on a tobacco card to market tobacco, so he

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<v Speaker 1>pulled the rights anyway, for whatever reason, there's this mystery

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<v Speaker 1>as to why there are not so many of them

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<v Speaker 1>and if became this really hallowed card, and those old

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<v Speaker 1>cards are really important to understanding the bubble that would

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<v Speaker 1>come in the nine eighties and nineties. We fast forward

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<v Speaker 1>to the nineteen seventies. Baseball cards have been around a

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<v Speaker 1>really long time, but it's not really un till then

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<v Speaker 1>that anybody starts thinking of them as something that could

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<v Speaker 1>be worth money. They've always been collectibles up until now.

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<v Speaker 1>But there's a group of kind of forward looking guys

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<v Speaker 1>at that time who start realizing that there's a market

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<v Speaker 1>develop uping around these old neat cards like the Honus

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<v Speaker 1>Wagner card. And these guys, uh, they start traveling the

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<v Speaker 1>country trying to buy up collections of baseball cards from people,

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<v Speaker 1>and they will hit the road, and they'll put an

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<v Speaker 1>ad in the local paper and say, Hey, my name's Joe.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna be in in Pittsburgh next Tuesday at the

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<v Speaker 1>Holiday Inn. If you've got baseball cards, come out, I'll

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<v Speaker 1>give you some money for him. And people came out.

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<v Speaker 1>They they pulled out whatever it was in their attic

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<v Speaker 1>and they sold it to these guys for for pretty

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<v Speaker 1>much a song. But that's when a certain group of

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<v Speaker 1>collectors starts thinking about these things as money and a

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<v Speaker 1>market starts forming. And it's not long after that that

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<v Speaker 1>we start we see a price guide, Uh, come out.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a guy named James Beckett, a statistician who

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<v Speaker 1>was also a big collector, decided that there should be

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<v Speaker 1>some sword of price guide to help people guide sales

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<v Speaker 1>and trades, and so all of a sudden we have

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<v Speaker 1>this this price guard guy that serves almost like a

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<v Speaker 1>stock tick or telling people what what their cards are worth.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is these are the sort of things we see,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of priming the pump for the boom that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to come in the nineties. Okay, I have questions about

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<v Speaker 1>the price guide, but before we go there, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I know you both have an affinity for these cards.

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<v Speaker 1>But as an objective observer, I'm really curious how a

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<v Speaker 1>single collectible piece of cardboard can be assigned of value because,

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<v Speaker 1>like something like a card, surely you can counterfeit it, right, Like,

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<v Speaker 1>surely you can make infinite numbers of copies of it.

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<v Speaker 1>How did it become a collectible? Well, you know, counterfeiting

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<v Speaker 1>isn't all that easy. And when it comes to these old, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>these old vintage cards, you could assign a market value

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<v Speaker 1>to it because there weren't a whole lot of them. Actually,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the whole idea of baseball cards was they

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<v Speaker 1>were supposed to be ephemera. They were not supposed to

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<v Speaker 1>be here forever. So people back in the thirties and forties,

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<v Speaker 1>of fifties and sixties, you threw them out, and if

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<v Speaker 1>you didn't, your mom eventually through amount when you outgrew

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<v Speaker 1>these things. And so cards were not really meant to

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<v Speaker 1>stick around for decades and decades, and so people got

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<v Speaker 1>rid of them. And so those old cards, like the

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<v Speaker 1>Honus Wagner card, they were genuinely scarce, and um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it was always hard to say how many there were

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<v Speaker 1>out there, of course, and some would always kind of

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<v Speaker 1>appear out of addicts. But you knew that those old

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<v Speaker 1>cards were rare cards and because of their scarcity, they

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<v Speaker 1>could actually be valuable. Now that is very different from

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<v Speaker 1>the cards that we're being produced in modern times. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>And this was was a big problem and a big

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<v Speaker 1>feeder of the bubble was was sort of the mentality

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<v Speaker 1>that people had going into this hobby. People were we're

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<v Speaker 1>buying and collecting cards in the nineteen eighties that were

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<v Speaker 1>being produced at that time, but they were applying kind

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<v Speaker 1>of this vintage mindset to it. People were collecting, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a Don Manning Lee Rookie card in four and thinking

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<v Speaker 1>of it kind of in the Honus Wagner terms. And

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<v Speaker 1>so you had these baseball card manufacturers that were essentially

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<v Speaker 1>printing money, you know, they were they were rolling these

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<v Speaker 1>cards out, and nobody really thought about how there was

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<v Speaker 1>no way to know how much was being produced and

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<v Speaker 1>whether this stuff would ever be scarce, And in fact,

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<v Speaker 1>it was like printing money, and the card makers were

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<v Speaker 1>printing obscene numbers of them. So before we started the recording,

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<v Speaker 1>I was tarring to Tracy and I said, the two

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<v Speaker 1>things that I think are going to be very relevant

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<v Speaker 1>from this episode to understanding bubbles are a the role

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<v Speaker 1>that price guides had in priming the pump, and be

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<v Speaker 1>the explosion of supply that happened in the eighties and nineties.

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<v Speaker 1>To magic demand, which is of course something that we

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<v Speaker 1>see in other bubbles. Uh, supply always ends up swamping

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<v Speaker 1>the bubble. So you've already hit on both of them.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's really dive into those. Let's start with the

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<v Speaker 1>role of the Beckett You might even say the Beckett

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<v Speaker 1>magazine was the Bloomberg terminal of prices? What did it

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<v Speaker 1>do it? How did it? So? I remember, I would

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<v Speaker 1>look and I would, you know, say, oh, I have

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<v Speaker 1>this card from like a Ken Griffey Junior rookie card

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<v Speaker 1>or something, or maybe there's eighty nine, I don't remember.

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<v Speaker 1>And then every month I would look and see how

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<v Speaker 1>much the price had moved up and up a nickel

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<v Speaker 1>of a quarter of fifty cents, down a bit. How

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<v Speaker 1>were those prices collected by the magazine on a monthly basis,

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<v Speaker 1>How reliable were they? And then be what did how

0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:28.280
<v Speaker 1>did the existence of that price guide, the fact that

0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:32.079
<v Speaker 1>I could look it up end up changing collector behavior?

0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:36.040
<v Speaker 1>So the methodology, Uh, you may not be surprised to

0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.120
<v Speaker 1>learn was actually pretty murky. I'm not hard to know

0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:41.840
<v Speaker 1>exactly how they came up with the figures. Originally it

0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:45.760
<v Speaker 1>was based on surveys with deals and collectors who are

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 1>kind of in the know. And you know, in Backett's defense,

0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:50.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, early on, I think a lot of people

0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:53.560
<v Speaker 1>thought of this as a public service. Right right now,

0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:55.600
<v Speaker 1>and you know, in this day and age, it's very

0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.640
<v Speaker 1>easy for me to know what my Donmattingly rookie card

0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:01.240
<v Speaker 1>is actually worse. I can put it on eBay and

0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:03.240
<v Speaker 1>in seven days i'm gonna have a pretty good handle

0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:07.080
<v Speaker 1>on what the actual market value is. Back then, you know,

0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:09.520
<v Speaker 1>it wasn't so easy to know. You know, I think

0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:12.480
<v Speaker 1>a lot of collectors felt isolated, and so the price

0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:16.200
<v Speaker 1>guide kind of like gave you a benchmark to go by. Um.

0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:19.400
<v Speaker 1>But where the price Guide was really dangerous was, in

0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:24.760
<v Speaker 1>my opinion, just generally popularizing this idea of baseball cards

0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:28.200
<v Speaker 1>as investments. Right I can say, you know, as a

0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:30.760
<v Speaker 1>nine year old, you know, we we were carrying the

0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.600
<v Speaker 1>Beckett price Guide around in school in our back past,

0:13:34.400 --> 0:13:37.280
<v Speaker 1>and you know, that was how we made our trades.

0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 1>And it's kind of crazy to think of children as

0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:42.160
<v Speaker 1>doing that. But you know, we we were that the

0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:44.920
<v Speaker 1>price Guy had helped make even children think of these

0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 1>cards as commodities um, which of course is always kind

0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.400
<v Speaker 1>of you know, in retrospect, was a pretty clear sign

0:13:51.440 --> 0:14:04.480
<v Speaker 1>of dangerous ahead. Okay, so you have the Price Guide,

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:08.160
<v Speaker 1>you have this narrative that's starting to filter out that

0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:11.560
<v Speaker 1>baseball cards make sense as an investment. Talk to us

0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:15.480
<v Speaker 1>about the I guess the sort of cottage industry that

0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 1>sprang up around it, because I'm assuming, as with most bubbles,

0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:21.720
<v Speaker 1>you did get a whole ecosystem kind of building and

0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:26.000
<v Speaker 1>feeding up on this baseball card phenomenon. Yeah. Absolutely so.

0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.920
<v Speaker 1>For for many many years, for decades, uh, there was

0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 1>only one company making, really making baseball cards, and that

0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.880
<v Speaker 1>was Tops, the most famous brand. They essentially had had

0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:40.400
<v Speaker 1>a monopoly on this for decades. They had an agreement

0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:43.240
<v Speaker 1>with the Baseball Players Union in Major League Baseball, and

0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:45.800
<v Speaker 1>they were structured in a way that basically shut out

0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:50.160
<v Speaker 1>any any competitors. It wasn't until around that that they

0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:53.640
<v Speaker 1>finally lost their antitrust case on that, which opened the

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:58.360
<v Speaker 1>door for other cardmakers to come in, and they certainly

0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.280
<v Speaker 1>flooded in at that point. It. It wasn't long before

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:04.840
<v Speaker 1>a whole bunch of these card man new card manufacturers

0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 1>jumped into the fray, and a lot of different groups

0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:14.320
<v Speaker 1>had kind of um their own interests in seeing more

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:16.920
<v Speaker 1>product kind of flood into the market. You know, one

0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 1>was the Baseball Players Union and also Major League Baseball.

0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:24.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, they had these licensing deals with the card companies.

0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:26.960
<v Speaker 1>If you inc more deals, you're gonna get more money.

0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:28.560
<v Speaker 1>The league is gonna get more money, and the player

0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.720
<v Speaker 1>is going to get more money. So they had their

0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 1>own reason to want to see more cards printed. And

0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:36.920
<v Speaker 1>you know dealers had their own part in it too.

0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:39.400
<v Speaker 1>The more the more stuff they could sell to people,

0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:43.120
<v Speaker 1>the better. And of course, you know, the demand for

0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:45.640
<v Speaker 1>this stuff was surging. So you would think that with

0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:49.720
<v Speaker 1>all these companies piling in and all of many many

0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.680
<v Speaker 1>more cards being printed, that you know, people would would

0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:56.200
<v Speaker 1>start to to see that that something was off here.

0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 1>But the demand just searched so much you had new

0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:01.440
<v Speaker 1>collectors pouring in, you know, in the nineties, it was

0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.440
<v Speaker 1>I would say, highly unusual if if a nine year

0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:08.239
<v Speaker 1>old boy wasn't collecting baseball cards. So, you know, obviously

0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 1>we want to talk about how the uh, you know

0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:13.960
<v Speaker 1>the bubble crash, because that's important. But before we get

0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:17.280
<v Speaker 1>to the crash, what, let's just talk about the crazy

0:16:17.360 --> 0:16:20.720
<v Speaker 1>stuff that happened. What to you when you go back

0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.520
<v Speaker 1>and look at that period when it was unusual for

0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:25.880
<v Speaker 1>a nine year old boy not to be collecting cards

0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 1>and all these new entrants came into the market and

0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:32.200
<v Speaker 1>people started treating cards his money. What are some really

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:36.120
<v Speaker 1>fun stories of just like pure over the top extravagance

0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:39.200
<v Speaker 1>that in retrospect we can look back on to say, like, jeez,

0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.960
<v Speaker 1>this was obviously a bubble waiting to crash. I would

0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:45.600
<v Speaker 1>point to a few things, you know, one would be

0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:50.560
<v Speaker 1>the the infamous Billy Ripken. Yes, uh, error card, Joe,

0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:53.360
<v Speaker 1>are you familiar with that? I? I am indeed familiar

0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.720
<v Speaker 1>with that card? Can you can you explain it? Please?

0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 1>How much of a family podcast is this? Well it

0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:05.879
<v Speaker 1>is a family podcast. But but basically there was so

0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.840
<v Speaker 1>Cal Ripkins younger brother, who never really amounted too much

0:17:09.520 --> 0:17:11.560
<v Speaker 1>there was that they called him error cards. Do you

0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.240
<v Speaker 1>want to explain what an error card is? Dave? Yeah,

0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:16.560
<v Speaker 1>So an Eric card is basically when a card was

0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:20.239
<v Speaker 1>printed and there's a mistake on it somewhere and the

0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:23.399
<v Speaker 1>manufacturer didn't catch it in time, so the card gets out.

0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:25.600
<v Speaker 1>You know, usually this is like, you know, the stats

0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:27.840
<v Speaker 1>are wrong, or the guys wearing you know, an old

0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:31.360
<v Speaker 1>uniform or something like that. But in Billy Ripkin's case,

0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:33.639
<v Speaker 1>it was a lot worse. Yeah, they had a he

0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.520
<v Speaker 1>had like a lot of typical pose was a picture

0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:39.760
<v Speaker 1>of a baseball player holding a bat on their shoulder,

0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:42.440
<v Speaker 1>like just sort of holding it up, and he had

0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:47.280
<v Speaker 1>a foul phrase that's not safe for saying on the air. Uh,

0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:49.600
<v Speaker 1>certainly not safe for nine year old boys to read,

0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:53.800
<v Speaker 1>written on the bottom of his bat. And you know,

0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:56.640
<v Speaker 1>so as soon as they caught that mistake, they obviously

0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:59.399
<v Speaker 1>pulled that. But of course everybody wanted the uh the

0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:01.680
<v Speaker 1>few that route there. Yeah, so this was a huge

0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:05.400
<v Speaker 1>embarrassment for the company that printed it. Flear and they

0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.359
<v Speaker 1>really bungled kind of the response. They didn't know what

0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:12.879
<v Speaker 1>to do. They they tried blotting out the expletive and

0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:15.840
<v Speaker 1>reprinting it, and then they scribbled it out and others

0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:18.399
<v Speaker 1>um and it turned out there ended up being like

0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:21.000
<v Speaker 1>six different versions of this of this error card, and

0:18:21.040 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 1>it kind of only only served to feed the frenzy more.

0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:27.560
<v Speaker 1>And I mean I remember this was like the buzz

0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:31.760
<v Speaker 1>on the playground back then was was was the Billy

0:18:31.880 --> 0:18:34.399
<v Speaker 1>Ripken card and and it was just you know, you

0:18:34.440 --> 0:18:36.800
<v Speaker 1>really enjoyed it as this illicit thing as a kid.

0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.920
<v Speaker 1>But what's crazy is how valuable those gotten a very

0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:42.520
<v Speaker 1>short time they were They were selling for well over

0:18:42.560 --> 0:18:45.879
<v Speaker 1>a hundred hours in many cases. Um, just because this

0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:48.639
<v Speaker 1>was a card that had a bat that had an

0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:51.320
<v Speaker 1>exploitive on it, you know that that was a sign

0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:54.119
<v Speaker 1>of of kind of the weirdness going on that something

0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:56.760
<v Speaker 1>like that could be could be fetching so much money.

0:18:57.320 --> 0:18:59.040
<v Speaker 1>And you know, for me it was it was just

0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:01.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of little thing things that that that you know,

0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:03.959
<v Speaker 1>you should have seen that that could have told you

0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:06.360
<v Speaker 1>what was going on. You know, one being how how

0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:10.040
<v Speaker 1>people were stockpiling cards and not opening them right This

0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:14.240
<v Speaker 1>la kind of goes goes against the very idea of collecting.

0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:16.280
<v Speaker 1>You're supposed to open the packs and like see if

0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:19.320
<v Speaker 1>you got your favorite player and try to assemble your team.

0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:22.919
<v Speaker 1>People mself included, were just buying this stuff and like

0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:25.320
<v Speaker 1>putting it in the closet as if it was like

0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:29.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, going to accrew value forever and ever as

0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:33.720
<v Speaker 1>this like unopened artifact, and you know, dealers were dealers

0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:36.080
<v Speaker 1>told me like we were storing this stuff in our

0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:39.240
<v Speaker 1>our basement like it was cardboard gold. Dave, I wanted

0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:41.960
<v Speaker 1>to ask you about this because of course, Okay, so

0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:44.280
<v Speaker 1>people are collecting cards because they think they're going to

0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:47.720
<v Speaker 1>grow in value, but you also have this tinge of

0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:50.520
<v Speaker 1>gambling there, right, because you buy a pack of cards

0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:52.720
<v Speaker 1>and you never know what's going to be inside of it,

0:19:53.160 --> 0:19:55.080
<v Speaker 1>and one of the you know, you could in theory,

0:19:55.200 --> 0:19:58.159
<v Speaker 1>hit the jackpot. It's a bit like buying a lottery ticket.

0:19:58.280 --> 0:20:01.360
<v Speaker 1>So how much did that feed in to the craze? Wait,

0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:03.760
<v Speaker 1>I gotta tell a story here. Sorry, it's a real

0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:06.600
<v Speaker 1>quick story, but it's exactly what this is about. It's

0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:09.959
<v Speaker 1>perfect story. So my friends and I actually did this.

0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:15.440
<v Speaker 1>We bought a box of unopened nineteen eighty nine Don

0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:18.840
<v Speaker 1>Ross cards that's another one of these new um, these

0:20:18.880 --> 0:20:21.159
<v Speaker 1>new ones that came into the market, and we're like,

0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:23.000
<v Speaker 1>we're not going to open them. I don't know what

0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:25.320
<v Speaker 1>we were thinking, but we that were like, well, let's

0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:28.440
<v Speaker 1>just open one pack just to see if we got

0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:31.520
<v Speaker 1>the Ken Griffy Junior Rookie card. Because it's just we're

0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:33.439
<v Speaker 1>just gonna open one pack and then we're gonna leave

0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:36.439
<v Speaker 1>the other one sealed for like future or whatever. And

0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:39.720
<v Speaker 1>so we did that, and not only did we get

0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:42.920
<v Speaker 1>the Ken Griffy Junior Rookie card, we also got the

0:20:42.960 --> 0:20:46.360
<v Speaker 1>Bobby Benia Rookie card in the same one. So it's

0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:49.200
<v Speaker 1>totally exactly what you say, Tracy. It was totally that

0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:51.760
<v Speaker 1>gambling thing, like, let's just do it one. It's like

0:20:51.800 --> 0:20:55.080
<v Speaker 1>opening scratching off a lottery ticket and incidentally we won.

0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:57.280
<v Speaker 1>Incidently lost because we lost. I don't know where that

0:20:57.320 --> 0:21:00.959
<v Speaker 1>card is now, but it's you nailed. The mentality of

0:21:01.000 --> 0:21:04.240
<v Speaker 1>the gambling thing is totally what I was thinking. Isn't

0:21:04.280 --> 0:21:06.640
<v Speaker 1>it great that you have these cards that started as

0:21:06.760 --> 0:21:10.040
<v Speaker 1>tobacco advertisements and then slowly taught children how to gamble

0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:15.240
<v Speaker 1>and make speculative investments. Absolutely, the stories from the eighties

0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:18.399
<v Speaker 1>in the press are kind of amazing about you know,

0:21:18.440 --> 0:21:22.159
<v Speaker 1>little kids hanging out outside smoke shops basically badgering people

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:25.040
<v Speaker 1>for the cards and their cigarette packs. And I mean

0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:28.639
<v Speaker 1>truly not joking it. It really served to introduce kids

0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:33.720
<v Speaker 1>to tobacco. So, you know, there is this idea that

0:21:33.720 --> 0:21:35.960
<v Speaker 1>that cards were always this kind of wholesome thing. I'm

0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:38.680
<v Speaker 1>like always trying to poke holes in that that kind

0:21:38.680 --> 0:21:41.440
<v Speaker 1>of nostalgia for these these things, because they've they've really

0:21:41.800 --> 0:21:44.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, they've always been about money, whether it was

0:21:44.119 --> 0:21:46.560
<v Speaker 1>the money for the collectors or money for for the

0:21:46.600 --> 0:21:49.760
<v Speaker 1>manufacturers who were rolling them out. I had no idea

0:21:49.800 --> 0:21:53.280
<v Speaker 1>how dark of a turn this episode was going to take.

0:21:53.680 --> 0:21:56.520
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about the crash. So you know, you talked

0:21:56.560 --> 0:22:00.359
<v Speaker 1>about the build up, the price guides, treating them as money,

0:22:00.520 --> 0:22:05.200
<v Speaker 1>the gambling. What was the tipping point? When did it all? When?

0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:07.600
<v Speaker 1>When was the peak, what year was the peak, and

0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:09.480
<v Speaker 1>what sort of was the sign that it was sort

0:22:09.520 --> 0:22:12.119
<v Speaker 1>of coming to an end. I think the peak in

0:22:12.200 --> 0:22:14.880
<v Speaker 1>sales when you actually look at numbers was probably around

0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:20.720
<v Speaker 1>but most people and myself included, like to point to

0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:25.879
<v Speaker 1>four as the year when things started really going down,

0:22:26.359 --> 0:22:28.400
<v Speaker 1>and that was, of course the year that that there

0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:30.800
<v Speaker 1>was a baseball strike. Um, you had a big labor

0:22:30.800 --> 0:22:34.199
<v Speaker 1>dispute between the players and the owners that the season

0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:40.280
<v Speaker 1>got sidelined, and so you had that coinciding with people.

0:22:40.840 --> 0:22:44.359
<v Speaker 1>You had people really disenchanted with the game because of

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:48.000
<v Speaker 1>because of the dispute that was going on coinciding with

0:22:48.119 --> 0:22:51.280
<v Speaker 1>people also kind of starting to realize that this stuff

0:22:51.359 --> 0:22:55.200
<v Speaker 1>is actually just cardboard and that maybe it was actually

0:22:55.480 --> 0:23:00.439
<v Speaker 1>way overprinted. Um so people people are really star to

0:23:00.520 --> 0:23:03.240
<v Speaker 1>see that because it's it's it's inescapable. Then, I mean

0:23:03.240 --> 0:23:06.440
<v Speaker 1>the volume of cards that they were printing and the

0:23:06.840 --> 0:23:09.239
<v Speaker 1>sheer number of sets that were out there, it was

0:23:09.440 --> 0:23:11.920
<v Speaker 1>it was really dizzy ng And and you know, one

0:23:11.960 --> 0:23:15.080
<v Speaker 1>interesting part of this, you know when you get into

0:23:15.400 --> 0:23:19.399
<v Speaker 1>into monopolies here, was when all these different cardmakers were

0:23:19.440 --> 0:23:22.680
<v Speaker 1>able to come come into the market. Uh and I'm

0:23:22.720 --> 0:23:26.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm look, I'm all for for for the free market here,

0:23:26.560 --> 0:23:28.719
<v Speaker 1>but it created a lot of confusion and you had

0:23:28.760 --> 0:23:30.920
<v Speaker 1>kids like me, all of a sudden, there's like there's

0:23:30.920 --> 0:23:33.879
<v Speaker 1>a half dozen companies and there's thirty different sets. You

0:23:33.960 --> 0:23:36.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of started to lose the common language of collecting,

0:23:36.640 --> 0:23:39.439
<v Speaker 1>right because the whole the whole idea of collecting is

0:23:39.480 --> 0:23:41.760
<v Speaker 1>that and trading is that we're we're kind of working

0:23:41.800 --> 0:23:44.040
<v Speaker 1>with the same cards here, right Like if I'm trying

0:23:44.040 --> 0:23:48.919
<v Speaker 1>to to to to collect the Yankees team that tops

0:23:49.000 --> 0:23:51.199
<v Speaker 1>rolled out, my buddy down the street needs to be

0:23:51.240 --> 0:23:53.959
<v Speaker 1>collecting the same set of cards, and so that that

0:23:54.000 --> 0:23:56.480
<v Speaker 1>element got lost in their hobby just got really confusing

0:23:56.520 --> 0:23:58.520
<v Speaker 1>for kids just because there was there was frankly like

0:23:58.680 --> 0:24:01.879
<v Speaker 1>so much crap out there and so um. You know.

0:24:01.920 --> 0:24:03.880
<v Speaker 1>It was really in the early nineties when that hit

0:24:03.880 --> 0:24:06.439
<v Speaker 1>a peak and it in it unfortunately for the hobby,

0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:10.480
<v Speaker 1>really coincided with UH, with this labor dispute, and that's

0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:13.840
<v Speaker 1>when we see, you know, a very precipitous drop off

0:24:13.880 --> 0:24:17.399
<v Speaker 1>in sales after another interesting dimension here now that you

0:24:17.400 --> 0:24:19.840
<v Speaker 1>bring it up in terms of the changing nature of

0:24:20.000 --> 0:24:22.600
<v Speaker 1>cards from when it went to a monopoly to you know,

0:24:22.760 --> 0:24:25.800
<v Speaker 1>sort of the early nineties. If you go back and

0:24:25.920 --> 0:24:29.119
<v Speaker 1>uh look at you know, those seventies and eighties cards,

0:24:29.320 --> 0:24:32.560
<v Speaker 1>they're all just kind of on like a rough, fairly

0:24:32.720 --> 0:24:38.479
<v Speaker 1>cheap cardboard. By the time like three the level of

0:24:39.040 --> 0:24:41.320
<v Speaker 1>uh sort of like how much was being invested in

0:24:41.359 --> 0:24:44.920
<v Speaker 1>the design of the car. They were all like super glossy.

0:24:45.359 --> 0:24:47.119
<v Speaker 1>Some of them had like golden or like you know,

0:24:47.280 --> 0:24:50.960
<v Speaker 1>leaf on them to sort of make them pretend like

0:24:51.000 --> 0:24:54.400
<v Speaker 1>you couldn't counter counterproof them. Like it was just they

0:24:54.440 --> 0:24:57.159
<v Speaker 1>just became like these sort of like luxury cards in

0:24:57.200 --> 0:24:59.840
<v Speaker 1>and of themselves. This sort of attempt to I guess

0:25:00.040 --> 0:25:03.560
<v Speaker 1>sort of manufacture collectibility from day one, like they really

0:25:03.600 --> 0:25:06.760
<v Speaker 1>just changed. Yeah. Absolutely, that's a great way of putting it.

0:25:06.760 --> 0:25:09.359
<v Speaker 1>And you know that the company upper deck Is is

0:25:09.440 --> 0:25:11.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of the best example of that. This was a

0:25:11.520 --> 0:25:14.720
<v Speaker 1>company that that sprang up in the late eighties out

0:25:14.720 --> 0:25:19.760
<v Speaker 1>of this idea of cards explicitly being being something you

0:25:19.760 --> 0:25:23.000
<v Speaker 1>you you collect as investments. They made these really fancy

0:25:23.040 --> 0:25:26.280
<v Speaker 1>cards on on heavy cardboard stock, They had the holograms

0:25:26.320 --> 0:25:29.399
<v Speaker 1>on them, they sprung for really good photographs, and they

0:25:29.520 --> 0:25:31.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, doubled or quadruple the price of what you

0:25:31.800 --> 0:25:34.160
<v Speaker 1>would normally expect to pay for a baseball card pack,

0:25:34.359 --> 0:25:36.920
<v Speaker 1>and people ended up buying them anyway, and a lot

0:25:37.000 --> 0:25:38.760
<v Speaker 1>of this, you know, and we see signs of it

0:25:38.840 --> 0:25:41.800
<v Speaker 1>here is really, in my opinion, the huge mistake that

0:25:41.800 --> 0:25:44.840
<v Speaker 1>that card makers you know, commit here is they really

0:25:44.880 --> 0:25:48.479
<v Speaker 1>start catering to two adults, right, you know. Tops at

0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:50.040
<v Speaker 1>one point I found in one of their one of

0:25:50.080 --> 0:25:53.479
<v Speaker 1>their ten k's around this time explicitly said like we

0:25:53.560 --> 0:25:56.280
<v Speaker 1>are you know, we are making this stuff for adults

0:25:56.400 --> 0:25:59.639
<v Speaker 1>as well as children. That is really not how you

0:25:59.680 --> 0:26:02.159
<v Speaker 1>want to be approaching this if you're in this for

0:26:02.200 --> 0:26:04.119
<v Speaker 1>the long term, because those adults are not going to

0:26:04.160 --> 0:26:07.199
<v Speaker 1>be around forever um, and so that that was I

0:26:07.200 --> 0:26:09.800
<v Speaker 1>think a big, big mistake on their part was starting

0:26:09.840 --> 0:26:12.840
<v Speaker 1>to cater to people who were older and had disposable

0:26:12.840 --> 0:26:16.160
<v Speaker 1>income to throw on this one. Really the lifeblood over

0:26:16.200 --> 0:26:20.000
<v Speaker 1>the decades was always children, children, children. Wait, I have

0:26:20.280 --> 0:26:22.640
<v Speaker 1>I have a sort of off the wall question if

0:26:22.760 --> 0:26:26.720
<v Speaker 1>if the bubble started to burst or burst around, there

0:26:26.840 --> 0:26:30.119
<v Speaker 1>was something else that was happening then, which was the

0:26:30.240 --> 0:26:33.879
<v Speaker 1>rise of the Internet and the rise I guess of

0:26:34.160 --> 0:26:38.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, transparency, And I think did eBay exist in

0:26:39.640 --> 0:26:43.639
<v Speaker 1>I can't remember, but in theory you had a Yeah,

0:26:43.680 --> 0:26:46.880
<v Speaker 1>you have an online platform where people could, for instance,

0:26:46.960 --> 0:26:50.359
<v Speaker 1>talk about the pricing information of baseball cards. Do you

0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:54.080
<v Speaker 1>think that played into it at all? It may have

0:26:54.359 --> 0:26:58.320
<v Speaker 1>I think a bigger problem, you know for the industry

0:26:58.320 --> 0:27:02.120
<v Speaker 1>when you talk in terms of like evolving technology, it's

0:27:02.160 --> 0:27:04.600
<v Speaker 1>just at a time when they were losing kids. Um,

0:27:04.960 --> 0:27:08.320
<v Speaker 1>you had the Internet rise, you had video games become

0:27:08.800 --> 0:27:11.359
<v Speaker 1>that much more amazing, and so you had all this

0:27:11.400 --> 0:27:15.320
<v Speaker 1>stuff really starting to compete for children's attention on a

0:27:15.400 --> 0:27:18.720
<v Speaker 1>on a much greater level, and it became I think

0:27:18.800 --> 0:27:22.520
<v Speaker 1>harder for you know, cardmakers to say to kids you know,

0:27:22.560 --> 0:27:25.120
<v Speaker 1>in this in this day and age, in modern times,

0:27:25.119 --> 0:27:26.919
<v Speaker 1>say hey, here's a pack of cardboard, you know, go

0:27:27.080 --> 0:27:29.359
<v Speaker 1>go have fun with it, and that, you know, that

0:27:29.400 --> 0:27:31.920
<v Speaker 1>created problem that to this day they're they're still trying

0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:33.920
<v Speaker 1>to dig their way out. Yeah, before we go, David,

0:27:33.920 --> 0:27:36.320
<v Speaker 1>I was actually just gonna ask you exactly that you know,

0:27:36.720 --> 0:27:39.880
<v Speaker 1>in terms of you know, a competing thing, video games,

0:27:40.240 --> 0:27:43.840
<v Speaker 1>Nintendos and stuff really sort of probably helped crush my

0:27:43.960 --> 0:27:47.520
<v Speaker 1>interest in cards because those you know, playing video games

0:27:47.520 --> 0:27:50.320
<v Speaker 1>were way more fun. But I was just gonna ask you, um,

0:27:50.359 --> 0:27:52.240
<v Speaker 1>what is the state of the market today. And there's

0:27:52.240 --> 0:27:57.800
<v Speaker 1>still who's still producing cards. It's still primarily Tops. Um

0:27:57.840 --> 0:28:00.600
<v Speaker 1>they are, They're still around, and to a credit, they're

0:28:00.640 --> 0:28:02.919
<v Speaker 1>they're trying to do some inventive stuff now, you know,

0:28:03.040 --> 0:28:05.840
<v Speaker 1>they they are still printing cards and they have them

0:28:05.880 --> 0:28:10.000
<v Speaker 1>tied to you know, an online app that functions a

0:28:10.000 --> 0:28:13.240
<v Speaker 1>lot like Fantasy Baseball and so kids, you know, have

0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:16.399
<v Speaker 1>this online element to it. You know, their sales on

0:28:16.440 --> 0:28:19.639
<v Speaker 1>the baseball card front are are still you know, I

0:28:19.800 --> 0:28:22.960
<v Speaker 1>would say a fraction of of what they were you know,

0:28:23.040 --> 0:28:26.760
<v Speaker 1>many many years ago, back during the boom. So you know,

0:28:26.760 --> 0:28:28.199
<v Speaker 1>they still have a lot of work to do if

0:28:28.200 --> 0:28:29.960
<v Speaker 1>they ever hope to get back to where they were.

0:28:30.119 --> 0:28:32.440
<v Speaker 1>But you know, I think they are, you know, to

0:28:32.520 --> 0:28:35.120
<v Speaker 1>their credit, trying to reach kids again in a way

0:28:35.160 --> 0:28:37.040
<v Speaker 1>that that for a lot of years of card makers

0:28:37.080 --> 0:28:40.400
<v Speaker 1>had kind of written off and we're increasingly only uh,

0:28:40.440 --> 0:28:43.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, devoted to these these these older guys who

0:28:43.440 --> 0:28:45.560
<v Speaker 1>had who had money to throw around. But of course,

0:28:45.680 --> 0:28:48.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, they're not gonna be around forever. And you know,

0:28:48.080 --> 0:28:49.800
<v Speaker 1>I think one of the problems that's going to linger

0:28:49.840 --> 0:28:52.240
<v Speaker 1>for a long time is that when you lose a

0:28:52.280 --> 0:28:56.520
<v Speaker 1>generation of collectors with something like this, it becomes harder

0:28:56.560 --> 0:28:59.600
<v Speaker 1>to to get people back and to get the children

0:28:59.600 --> 0:29:02.080
<v Speaker 1>of those of those collectors you lost. I mean, I

0:29:02.120 --> 0:29:05.600
<v Speaker 1>was just talking with with our producer here, Zach, who

0:29:05.680 --> 0:29:08.239
<v Speaker 1>was just a few years younger than me, and we

0:29:08.240 --> 0:29:10.040
<v Speaker 1>were talking about what we were going to talk about here,

0:29:10.080 --> 0:29:11.560
<v Speaker 1>and he said, oh, I didn't know that there was

0:29:11.600 --> 0:29:14.560
<v Speaker 1>a baseball card bubble because he was seven seven years

0:29:14.640 --> 0:29:16.920
<v Speaker 1>or so, eight years or so younger than me, and

0:29:16.960 --> 0:29:19.360
<v Speaker 1>so he had completely missed the fat. Of course, you

0:29:19.440 --> 0:29:21.720
<v Speaker 1>knew about like beanie babies and pots and that sort

0:29:21.760 --> 0:29:25.280
<v Speaker 1>of thing, But when you lose a generation of collectors.

0:29:25.440 --> 0:29:28.760
<v Speaker 1>It was it. You know, for a long time, it

0:29:28.840 --> 0:29:32.240
<v Speaker 1>was you know, fathers turned their sons onto baseball cards,

0:29:32.280 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 1>older brothers turned their younger brothers on the baseball cards.

0:29:35.200 --> 0:29:37.720
<v Speaker 1>So you know, when you have this big generation that

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:39.600
<v Speaker 1>missed out on it, I think you're you're trying to

0:29:39.600 --> 0:29:42.160
<v Speaker 1>dig out of a bigger hole. Does that mean there's

0:29:42.200 --> 0:29:45.480
<v Speaker 1>no chance that the market could ever recover, because I

0:29:45.560 --> 0:29:47.240
<v Speaker 1>mean we are in the midst of a little bit

0:29:47.280 --> 0:29:51.200
<v Speaker 1>of a nostalgia boom. And what's more nostalgic really than

0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:57.680
<v Speaker 1>kids collecting cards that depict the players of America's national pastime.

0:29:58.440 --> 0:30:01.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, cards have been so zilient for a hundred

0:30:01.320 --> 0:30:03.920
<v Speaker 1>and forty odd years that I think there's no reason

0:30:04.080 --> 0:30:05.880
<v Speaker 1>they're they're not going to be around for a really

0:30:05.880 --> 0:30:09.360
<v Speaker 1>long time. I also think it's important to kind of

0:30:09.640 --> 0:30:12.920
<v Speaker 1>clarify that there's really two markets here. There's there's the

0:30:12.960 --> 0:30:15.880
<v Speaker 1>market of of new stuff being made that we're talking

0:30:15.920 --> 0:30:18.920
<v Speaker 1>about right now, like companies like Tops are producing still

0:30:18.960 --> 0:30:22.800
<v Speaker 1>each year that has been you know, a struggling business

0:30:22.880 --> 0:30:26.920
<v Speaker 1>for you know, two decades now. But that the separate market,

0:30:27.080 --> 0:30:29.360
<v Speaker 1>the earlier one we were talking about a vintage cards

0:30:29.520 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 1>of the Honus Wagners and such. That market has been

0:30:33.200 --> 0:30:37.160
<v Speaker 1>a a bowl market for forty fifty years now. It

0:30:37.280 --> 0:30:41.400
<v Speaker 1>is still going strong because that stuff is still very

0:30:41.520 --> 0:30:45.320
<v Speaker 1>rare and because there's a lot of older guys, um

0:30:45.800 --> 0:30:49.520
<v Speaker 1>millionaires who are willing to throw serious money after that stuff.

0:30:49.880 --> 0:30:53.560
<v Speaker 1>So that market has remained exceptionally strong. And if you

0:30:53.600 --> 0:30:55.280
<v Speaker 1>were if you were involved in that early and if

0:30:55.320 --> 0:30:57.640
<v Speaker 1>you made some smart moves, you know that that could

0:30:57.720 --> 0:30:59.840
<v Speaker 1>could very well have made you a rich person now.

0:31:00.200 --> 0:31:03.440
<v Speaker 1>But that is a very different market from this overglutted

0:31:03.560 --> 0:31:08.000
<v Speaker 1>modern market of way overproduced cards that me and Joe

0:31:08.040 --> 0:31:11.800
<v Speaker 1>came up in. Well, Dave, it was absolutely awesome to

0:31:11.880 --> 0:31:14.080
<v Speaker 1>talk to you. I I swear, you know, maybe we

0:31:14.080 --> 0:31:16.240
<v Speaker 1>should beat for Colbee sometime just so we could talk

0:31:16.320 --> 0:31:19.200
<v Speaker 1>old baseball cards stories. But you know, you talked about

0:31:19.800 --> 0:31:23.479
<v Speaker 1>trade stories. But I feel really dumb now because I

0:31:23.520 --> 0:31:25.600
<v Speaker 1>did all the dumb things back then. I was just

0:31:25.640 --> 0:31:29.400
<v Speaker 1>like everybody else thinking that I just feel really stupid

0:31:29.440 --> 0:31:31.760
<v Speaker 1>the problem. But I'm glad to I'm glad to find

0:31:31.760 --> 0:31:35.000
<v Speaker 1>out that I am not alone. And uh, I really

0:31:35.000 --> 0:31:39.160
<v Speaker 1>appreciate you coming on. I learned quite a bit. Look, man,

0:31:39.200 --> 0:31:41.320
<v Speaker 1>I got an email like every three days from some

0:31:41.440 --> 0:31:44.560
<v Speaker 1>guy around our age asking me what is cards are worth?

0:31:44.600 --> 0:31:47.560
<v Speaker 1>And so I'm baking breaking bad news to people all

0:31:47.560 --> 0:31:49.920
<v Speaker 1>the time. So you're you know, we're all on the

0:31:49.920 --> 0:31:53.160
<v Speaker 1>same boat. So so there's that awesome stuff. Thanks Dave,

0:31:53.440 --> 0:32:08.239
<v Speaker 1>Thanks guys. So, Tracy, I kind of wanna go on

0:32:08.320 --> 0:32:10.400
<v Speaker 1>eBay and start buying a bunch of baseball cries. Now,

0:32:11.080 --> 0:32:13.400
<v Speaker 1>what happened to your old baseball cards? Do you remember?

0:32:14.640 --> 0:32:17.880
<v Speaker 1>That's a really good question. Um, I know my dad

0:32:18.040 --> 0:32:22.920
<v Speaker 1>has some storage, some boxes in storage somewhere from when

0:32:22.960 --> 0:32:25.600
<v Speaker 1>I was a kid. So now I kind of got

0:32:25.600 --> 0:32:29.160
<v Speaker 1>to figure out where those are and go get them.

0:32:29.680 --> 0:32:31.720
<v Speaker 1>They might some of them might be somewhere, they might

0:32:31.720 --> 0:32:35.080
<v Speaker 1>be recoverable. Yeah, I mean, I think the amazing thing

0:32:35.120 --> 0:32:38.320
<v Speaker 1>is we all kind of have stories from our childhood

0:32:38.400 --> 0:32:41.800
<v Speaker 1>of similar things, whether it's baseball cards or um in

0:32:41.840 --> 0:32:47.000
<v Speaker 1>my case, magic the gathering cards, or POGs or beanie babies. Again,

0:32:47.080 --> 0:32:50.840
<v Speaker 1>it's just amazing how often this pattern of behavior is

0:32:50.880 --> 0:32:57.840
<v Speaker 1>repeated throughout history. There's so many relevant lessons here for

0:32:58.160 --> 0:33:00.680
<v Speaker 1>other things. So obviously we talked about the role of

0:33:00.720 --> 0:33:04.120
<v Speaker 1>price guides, and that's kind of clear. But although although

0:33:04.160 --> 0:33:07.920
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting too, the idea we should do an episode

0:33:07.920 --> 0:33:11.080
<v Speaker 1>just on pricing, because it's interesting that and how prices

0:33:11.120 --> 0:33:13.920
<v Speaker 1>are derived, because you know, we got these magazines as

0:33:14.000 --> 0:33:15.760
<v Speaker 1>kids and it would say, oh, your card is worth

0:33:15.800 --> 0:33:19.560
<v Speaker 1>five dollars, but we never questioned how that price was

0:33:19.680 --> 0:33:22.960
<v Speaker 1>arrived at, how how whether we could get that price

0:33:22.960 --> 0:33:25.400
<v Speaker 1>if we actually wanted to sell our cards. Like, there's

0:33:25.400 --> 0:33:28.200
<v Speaker 1>all sorts of interesting stuff just with the collection of pricing.

0:33:28.720 --> 0:33:31.840
<v Speaker 1>Also interesting this idea of like they're really being two

0:33:31.920 --> 0:33:35.520
<v Speaker 1>baseball card markets. The current market that just sort of

0:33:35.560 --> 0:33:39.440
<v Speaker 1>got overturned and overproduced and that collapsed, and then the

0:33:39.480 --> 0:33:43.280
<v Speaker 1>true vintage market from when there was actual scarcity, and

0:33:43.320 --> 0:33:45.240
<v Speaker 1>how that has been, as he said in a two

0:33:45.320 --> 0:33:48.480
<v Speaker 1>decade bowl markets sort of unfazed by the crash. And

0:33:48.520 --> 0:33:51.840
<v Speaker 1>the other part, Yeah, it almost speaks to a truism

0:33:51.960 --> 0:33:55.000
<v Speaker 1>of bubbles, I guess, which is that as people cotton

0:33:55.120 --> 0:33:56.880
<v Speaker 1>on to the fact that this is going on, and

0:33:56.920 --> 0:33:59.360
<v Speaker 1>as they start to participate in it, you get that

0:33:59.400 --> 0:34:03.400
<v Speaker 1>boom and apply and then inevitably the bubble will eventually

0:34:03.440 --> 0:34:07.960
<v Speaker 1>come crashing down, right, Yeah, I remember before our Bubble series,

0:34:08.360 --> 0:34:10.080
<v Speaker 1>it might have even been like a year ago. Remember

0:34:10.120 --> 0:34:13.360
<v Speaker 1>we talked to that professor at Harvard about his paper

0:34:13.480 --> 0:34:16.600
<v Speaker 1>on the five or six characteristics of all stock market

0:34:16.640 --> 0:34:19.759
<v Speaker 1>bubbles and the premium, and that was one of the

0:34:19.920 --> 0:34:22.600
<v Speaker 1>things that I really took away from that, the premium

0:34:22.640 --> 0:34:26.440
<v Speaker 1>that stock investors pay for new issues, new I p

0:34:26.520 --> 0:34:30.719
<v Speaker 1>o S versus legacy ones. And then of course, because

0:34:30.880 --> 0:34:33.960
<v Speaker 1>investors pay that premium, then the I p O Market

0:34:34.000 --> 0:34:36.840
<v Speaker 1>booms and the supply or you know, swamps demand and

0:34:36.920 --> 0:34:40.040
<v Speaker 1>that helps to kill it. But that's really sort of definitional.

0:34:40.040 --> 0:34:41.279
<v Speaker 1>And I think, you know, if we look at even

0:34:41.280 --> 0:34:44.640
<v Speaker 1>the bubbles that we've talked about in this series, Florida

0:34:44.719 --> 0:34:47.680
<v Speaker 1>real estate being example, you know, suddenly people just buying

0:34:47.719 --> 0:34:50.320
<v Speaker 1>the swamp land in the middle of nowhere. The market

0:34:50.440 --> 0:34:53.200
<v Speaker 1>always finds a way to create the supply when there's

0:34:53.239 --> 0:34:56.759
<v Speaker 1>adequate demand for it. Yeah. Hey, hey, Joe, what's the

0:34:56.840 --> 0:35:01.400
<v Speaker 1>secret to uh, writing a bubble success fully? Is this

0:35:01.440 --> 0:35:06.120
<v Speaker 1>gonna be right? Oh? Yeah, that's a good lot. Actually,

0:35:06.400 --> 0:35:12.919
<v Speaker 1>thank you, I've been saving that one. Speaking of timing. Yeah,

0:35:13.000 --> 0:35:16.319
<v Speaker 1>all right, let's do it. This has been another episode

0:35:16.560 --> 0:35:20.000
<v Speaker 1>of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can

0:35:20.040 --> 0:35:23.960
<v Speaker 1>follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart and I'm Tracy Alloway.

0:35:24.040 --> 0:35:27.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm on Twitter at Tracy Alloway, and you can follow

0:35:28.040 --> 0:35:32.000
<v Speaker 1>Dave Jamison on Twitter at Jamison. And you can follow

0:35:32.080 --> 0:35:36.440
<v Speaker 1>our producer Sarah Patterson on Twitter at Sarah patt With

0:35:36.480 --> 0:35:38.320
<v Speaker 1>two teas. Thanks for listening.