WEBVTT - Daybreak Weekend: Pfizer Deal, Nobel Peace, Golden Week 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:07.800 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:10.360 --> 0:00:12.680 This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 0:00:12.680 --> 0:00:14.920 the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:17.480 anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:20.680 and look at how tariffs on lumber and timber could 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:24.119 impact the US housing market. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:28.400 I'm Caroline Hebge in London. What's in a prize, specifically 0:00:28.600 --> 0:00:30.520 the Nobel Prize Decisions. 0:00:30.800 --> 0:00:34.200 I'm Dog Prisner looking at Chinese consumers during Golden Week 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:37.160 plus trouble with some Hong Kong real estate. 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:42.120 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:45.840 eleven to three year, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:51.479 Bloomberg ninety two nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Sirias, 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:55.120 XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:57.440 dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:04.479 Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby. We begin today's 0:01:04.480 --> 0:01:07.000 program with a new batch of tariffs announced by President 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.960 Trump on imports of soft wood, timber, and lumber, as 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:13.320 well as levees on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered wood 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:16.200 products brought into the US. How will this impact the 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:19.280 housing market moving forward? And what about housing prices? 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:19.880 For more? 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:25.240 We're joined by Drew Redding, Bloomberg Intelligence US home building Analyst. Well, Drew, 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.200 thank you so much for being here, appreciated home builders. 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:31.080 Home buyers now, they've already been paying sky high prices, 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:35.240 elevated mortgage rates, they've been paying tariffs on imported kitchen appliances, 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:38.679 washers and dryers, and now October fourteenth, they'll be paying 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:42.520 ten percent levees on softwood, lumber and timber, twenty five 0:01:42.560 --> 0:01:46.280 percent on kitchen cabinets, vanities, other pre assembled I mean, 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:49.120 this is looking This is not good, is it? 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:53.800 Yeah? Well, certainly, you know, the consumer doesn't need higher 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.680 costs when it comes to housing, given the affordability constraints 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.200 that they've been under for the last several years. Just 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:02.160 to take a step back on the tariffs, to put 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:05.840 it in perspective, the US imports about thirteen million dollars 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:09.200 or seven percent roughly of the goods used in new 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:12.959 residential construction. So at the headline level, it's not necessarily 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:15.680 a massive piece. But you know, there are particular areas 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:18.960 where tariffs will be felt perhaps more than others. If 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:20.680 you look at the top of three countries that we 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:24.760 import from, it's China. That's about twenty seven percent of imports. 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.640 From there, we're talking about things like appliance, is lighting, 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:33.280 electrical components, hand tools. The second is Mexico and from 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.880 there we're primarily talking about gypsum products. So I think 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:39.000 drywall Mexico is about seventy two percent of imports there. 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:41.799 And then third, you know, which has really come into 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:46.200 focus now is Canada, which accounts for eighty five percent 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:49.079 of lumber imports. So when you put all this together, 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:53.560 the previously announced tariffs, you know, country specific fat and 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:57.800 on reciprocal tariffs, along with these newly announced tariffs, we 0:02:57.919 --> 0:03:00.880 think that the costs, the total cost to a builder 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:05.520 will be about ten thousand dollars per home, which which 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:07.160 is a pretty staggering number. Now, we don't think the 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.360 builders will ultimately absorb all of these costs. I think, 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:13.480 you know, they'll probably be spread throughout the supply chain. 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:16.679 And when you think about the large public builders, they're 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:19.600 really better positioned in this environment given you know, their 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:22.680 scale now in terms of their ability to pass on 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:25.480 to consumers. You know, I think that could be tough. 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:28.800 And you know, you've got prices already coming down for 0:03:28.880 --> 0:03:32.160 a lot of builders due to affordability, and then they're 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:35.760 still having to use an elevated degree of incentives, which 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:38.560 is accounted for as a reduction in salespace. So there's 0:03:38.600 --> 0:03:40.240 a lot of moving pieces. But at the end of 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.200 the day, the point is that it becomes increasingly expensive 0:03:44.120 --> 0:03:45.800 to build a home, and I. 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:47.960 Mean this could really deter a lot of builders. Like 0:03:48.000 --> 0:03:49.800 you said, we're not worried about the KB homes and 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:51.920 the Pulties of the world, but a lot of smaller 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:54.880 ones from constructing new homes, at least initially. 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:55.160 Right. 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:57.720 No, it's a good point. And you know why we 0:03:57.760 --> 0:04:01.440 haven't seen a huge packed impact on you know, tariffs 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:03.160 to this point. One of the things we have heard, 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:07.160 and to your point, really from the smaller private builders, 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:10.040 is that there hasn't been a lot of certainty, so 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:11.520 they don't know what their costs are going to be. 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:12.960 When you don't know what your costs are going to be, 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:15.160 it's hard for you to plan out into the future 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:17.640 and put new production into the ground. So I do 0:04:17.680 --> 0:04:21.000 think it is definitely more challenging for the smaller names 0:04:21.040 --> 0:04:23.479 in the group. One thing that I think that's worth 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:25.800 pointing out on the lumber side of this is that 0:04:26.560 --> 0:04:29.280 prior to this announcement of a ten percent tariff on 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:33.640 software imports, we already had duties on lumber coming in 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:36.919 from Canada. If you're talking about forty five percent on 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:40.680 Canadian lumber imports, which again is eighty five percent of 0:04:40.760 --> 0:04:42.440 all the lumber imported into the US. 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:44.880 Yeah, I mean it sounds like some of these Canadian 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:49.479 lumber makers, these these manufacturers could really be struggling now 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:51.040 if you know, sales get hurt. 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:53.720 Yeah, it's a great point. And you know, the announcement 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:57.919 really came because the administration wanted to open an investigation 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:00.560 as to, you know, whether or not the lumber trade 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:04.479 was of risk to national security, which they determined that 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:07.720 it was. So the question becomes, well, can the US 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:11.320 produce enough lumber domestically to meet all the demand. And 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:13.839 I think the answer for now is no. And you know, 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:16.240 as I mentioned, we produced about seventy percent of the 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:19.520 lumber utilized in the US and to get that to 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:22.480 one hundred percent would really require a lot of time. 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:26.279 The National Association of home builders estimates you know, somewhere 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:28.080 around ten years to be able to achieve this. So 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:29.839 certainly no small feat. 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:33.600 And not only the industrial or resilience, but also Trump's 0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:36.599 had the high quality jobs that this would create. Would 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:38.520 they really be high quality jobs? 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:41.560 I mean that remains to be seen. And like I said, 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:44.120 it's will take a lot of time to add new 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:47.760 capacity to the industry. But you know, there are a 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:50.239 lot of jobs along the supply train and in terms 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:53.279 of you know, just the not only jobs you're creating 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:56.719 at the mills, but logistics and you know, getting wood 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.159 to factories to job sites and things like that. So 0:05:59.320 --> 0:06:00.279 it would certainly help. 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:02.800 Now let's talk about the other tariffs, and these are big. 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:08.400 They're twenty five percent on on kitchen bathroom, Vanity's kitchen cabinets, 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:10.640 that type of thing. We know that Ethan Allen, Lazy 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:12.840 Boys source and manufacture a lot of their products in 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:16.200 the US, But there are big retailers that import a 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:19.080 ton of goods Wayfair William soonoma our Age formerly a 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:22.480 restoration hardware. I mean, they may really be impacted by 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:23.839 these tariffs, right, you. 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:27.359 Know, I think from from their perspective, you know, the 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:29.760 impact isn't going to be as great as you might expect. 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:32.839 But if you think about the individual consumer who is 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:36.120 going out and making a single purchase, you know, on 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:38.200 a kitchen cabinet or vanity, and was looking for a 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:40.960 low cost option, all of a sudden to them that 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:43.760 becomes significantly more expensive. So there's I think there's a 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.839 big difference between how you know a home improvement retailer 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:49.479 can manage the situation versus individual consumer. 0:06:50.040 --> 0:06:52.320 A lot of challenges well our thanks to Drew Redding, 0:06:52.360 --> 0:06:56.640 Bloomberg Intelligence US home Building analyst. We move next to 0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:59.880 a turning point for big pharma. This past week, five 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:03.320 US negotiated a three year reprieve on drug import tariffs 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:05.520 in exchange for a promise to reduce what it charges 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:10.080 Medicaid for some prescription meds, also to price future drugs 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:12.360 on part with what it charges other wealthy nations, and 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:15.920 to sell certain drugs at discounted prices to the public. Now, 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:19.080 how might this impact the pharmaceutical space, what other drug 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:21.360 makers are working on their own deals, and what does 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.280 it mean for consumers. For all that, we're joined by 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:27.920 Madison Muller, Bloomberg Health reporter. Madison, thanks for being here. 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:29.760 Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:32.800 Can you kind of detail the finer points of this 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:36.680 agreement with the White House? And I'm most curious about 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:40.320 trump RX. It sounds a little like his answer to Obamacare. 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:43.840 But yeah, it's an interesting concept, and I think we 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:46.200 knew that they were working on something like this. I mean, 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:49.360 for the last few months, the administration has been talking 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:54.240 about direct to consumer websites and platforms. Some drug makers 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:56.960 had already started doing that. Eli Lilly, for example, has 0:07:57.040 --> 0:07:59.640 Lily direct. Nova Nordisk has been doing this for some 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:02.440 of the real high demand drugs like GLP one weight 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:05.040 loss drugs, And so we knew the administration was thinking 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:09.400 about doing something like this, and its answer to one 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:13.280 of the biggest priorities in terms of healthcare is lowering 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:15.640 drug prices, and this is sort of one of the 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:19.680 one of multiple things that the administration thinks could help 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:23.320 address that by making a website where drug makers can 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:27.120 put their drugs on there and at a steep discount 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:30.160 to the list price and have consumers sort of directly 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:33.040 buy them from the manufacturers as a way to cut 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:36.840 drug prices. But it's an interesting concept, and cash pay 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:41.679 might not necessarily be super popular for other medications like 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:44.320 it has been for the GLP one weight loss drugs. 0:08:45.200 --> 0:08:47.839 Is that because so many of those other medications are so. 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:51.839 Expensive exactly, and the insurance landscape for weight loss drugs 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:55.079 is quite patchy still, it's very difficult to get insurance coverage. 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:57.160 The drugs are expensive, so a lot of people are 0:08:57.200 --> 0:09:00.120 willing to pay out of pocket for those medications. But 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:02.960 in terms of this Feiser deal, some of the medications 0:09:02.960 --> 0:09:06.160 that we know that Pfizer will be discounting, like It's 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:10.160 blood thinner Eloquist, those are usually covered by insurance anyway, 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:12.960 so people with insurance will have coverage for that. There 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:15.320 wouldn't really be a reason for them to buy it 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:18.120 directly from the manufacturer on a website like trump Orex, 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.160 and those who don't have insurance, it's probably still going 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:25.000 to be pretty expensive for now. 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:28.560 Some of the drugs that are made by Pfizer, by Lilly, 0:09:28.640 --> 0:09:31.679 by Johnson and Johnson all made or mostly made in 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:34.880 the US. Let's talk about what Trump threatened to impose 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:38.320 on branded drugs from outside the US. A one hundred 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:40.559 percent tariff. Now, that's not going to help a whole 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:41.480 lot of consumers is. 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:43.960 It right exactly. I mean, that's one thing that's been 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:47.280 sort of in conflict with the administration's efforts to lower 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:50.960 drug prices is if there are tariffs on pharmaceutical products, 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:53.240 that could end up raising drug prices because it will 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:55.679 make it a lot more expensive for manufacturers to make 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:58.840 these medications. And like you said, all of the big 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:03.040 US and you know, international drug makers have plants, have 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:06.000 manufacturing plants in the US. They're building more in the US, 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:09.000 but the pharmaceutical supply chain is really complex, and they 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:13.040 do have some elements of their manufacturing or supply outside 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:16.120 of the US. ELI Lilly, for example, makes the critical 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:19.800 first step in their weight loss and diabetes drugs Manjarro 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.240 and zepbound in Ireland and then they ship it here 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:24.600 and the rest of the manufacturing process happens here. So 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:30.360 tariffs really had, you know, huge potential implications for this industry. 0:10:30.840 --> 0:10:34.040 And what Peiser has been able to do is negotiate 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:37.160 a three year reprieve and it's the assumption that other 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:39.520 drug makers are going to try to follow suit with this. 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.200 Well, part Offiser's deal is they made a seventy billion 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:45.480 dollar pledge to expand manufacturing and research and development here. 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:49.280 So what is in Peiser's plans and what are some 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:51.160 of the other US manufacturers doing. 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:55.400 Yeah, so, like we said, there are other US manufacturers 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:59.960 and international manufacturers that have pledged billions of dollars of investments. 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:02.440 Over the last couple of months we've seen I mean, 0:11:02.480 --> 0:11:05.000 I think Lily was the first one back in February, 0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:08.880 and since then there's been a lot of other pledges 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:13.120 to invest. And so right now, what we're hearing is 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:16.040 that these negotiations are sort of on hold for the 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:18.480 time being in terms of this one hundred percent tariffs 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:21.840 that Trump had threatened. And there was also this ongoing 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:25.880 two thirty two investigation, which is a national security investigation 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:30.040 into the pharmaceutical supply chain sort of as to lay 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.680 the groundwork for eventual tariffs. So we're hearing right now, 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:35.120 as these sort of deals are going on, that all 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:37.880 of that is on pause for the time being. And 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:40.719 I guess it was a couple of months ago the 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:44.600 Trump administration sent letters to seventeen drug makers laying out 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:48.040 a couple of specific demands, you know, to lower drug prices, 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:53.200 look into direct to consumer, you know, offer discounts through medicaid, 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:55.920 and so what we're seeing is Pfizer follow through on 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:58.360 some of those demands and make promises that they will 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:01.880 discount a lot of their drugs on this trump are 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:05.080 X website, that they'll just count drugs through medicaid, which 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:08.640 that it's sort of Actually for the industry was a 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:11.440 bit of a relief because they thought it was going 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:13.480 to be worse than this, and it could be worse 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:18.120 than this if there were sweeping most favored nation policies 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:22.000 or tariffs implemented, and so for Pfizer, actually it was 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:24.160 a good thing and there was some fault, you know, 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.240 I guess follow through for the rest of the industry 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:28.160 that this would be a good thing too well. 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.160 A lot to look forward to in a lot of deals, 0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:33.679 likely in the pipeline. Our thanks to Madison Muller, Bloomberg 0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:36.560 Health Reporter, and coming up on Bloomberg Gay Break Weekend, 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:39.400 we'll look at the global political implications of the Nobel 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:54.600 Prize decisions. I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. This 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:57.000 is Bloomberg Gay Break Weekend, our global look ahead at 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:59.600 the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:02.599 Tom in New York. Up later in our program, a 0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:05.320 look at the Golden Week holiday in China and what 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:08.600 it'll mean for consumer spending. But first, a new batch 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.160 of recipients for the Nobel Prize, one of the world's 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:14.840 most prestigious accolades, established in the will of Swedish chemist 0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:18.679 and inventor Alfred Nobel to honor individuals who made outstanding 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:22.679 contributions to humankind. The awards have become an emblem of achievement, 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:26.560 even capturing the interest of US President Donald Trump. For more, 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:29.240 Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:31.560 anchor Caroline hepger Tom. 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:34.760 It's no secret that President Trump has been courting the 0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:38.720 idea of winning a Nobel Peace Prize for some time. 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:43.200 According to Bloomberg opinion columnist Andres Klouth, it's one of 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:46.199 the reasons he's been pushing so hard for a cease 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:50.560 far between Russia and Ukraine. Other political leaders, including the 0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:54.960 Congolese president, have weighed into the debate, saying Trump will 0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:57.600 have earned the award if he can end more than 0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:02.600 three decades of conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:06.600 of Congo. And of course, previous US presidents have managed 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:10.400 to impress the Nobel Committee in the past. Prior winners 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:15.559 include Theodore Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter, and most recently Barack Obama 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:20.280 in two thousand and nine. The current president mentioned the 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:24.840 prize during his recent address to the United Nations General Assembly, 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:29.160 although he did remain philosophical about his chances of winning. 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:32.400 I didn't think of it at the time because I 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:36.000 was too busy working to save millions of lives, that is, 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:39.640 the saving and stopping of these wars. But later I 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.560 realized that the United Nations wasn't there for us. 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:43.440 They weren't there. 0:14:44.480 --> 0:14:48.040 I thought of it really after the fact, not during 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:52.040 these negotiations, which were not easy. That being the case, 0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:55.640 what is the purpose of the United Nations? The UN 0:14:55.720 --> 0:15:01.120 has such tremendous potential. I've always said it, such tremendous, 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:05.560 tremendous potential. But it's not even coming close to living 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:08.720 up to that potential for the most part, at least 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.720 for now. All they seem to do is write a 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:16.120 really strongly worded letter and then never follow that letter up. 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:21.440 It's empty words, and empty words don't solve war. The 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:26.080 only thing that solves war and wars is action. Now, 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:30.280 after ending all of these wars and also earlier negotiating 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:34.160 the Abraham Accords, which is a very big thing for 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:39.440 which our country received no credit, never receives credit. Everyone 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.960 says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize for 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:45.920 each one of these achievements. But for me, the real 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:48.800 prize will be the sons and daughters who live to 0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:52.400 grow up with the mothers and fathers, because millions of 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:58.800 people are no longer being killed in endless and unglorious wars. 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:03.040 That Donald Trump speaking there at the UN General Assembly 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.880 in New York, so just how likely is it that 0:16:05.920 --> 0:16:10.440 he'll walk away with Nobel recognition and how important is 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.880 the upcoming prize giving. It's something I've been discussing with 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:19.160 our Nordic managing editor Katy Poyan Palo and Stockholm bureau 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:22.600 chief Charles Daily. Charles, can I start with you Firstie? 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:26.280 So the Nobels are obviously hugely prestigious. They are known 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:28.880 around the world, just in terms of the history and 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:30.800 where we are for this year. To tell us a 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:33.520 bit about the history of the Nobels and how they've 0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:34.360 come about. 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:36.880 Yep, sure, I mean to do that. We have to 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:39.840 go back to eighteen ninety five and the Last Will 0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:43.360 and Testament, of a Swedish engineer and chemist by the 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:47.960 name of Alfred Nobel, who is known really as well 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:51.000 as the Nobel Prizes, he's also known for inventing dynamite 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:54.760 as his claim to fame. In that will, he listed 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:58.640 five prizes for those who have conferred the greatest benefit 0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:02.160 to mankind in the preceding year. And there were five 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:07.920 categories of prizes in the will physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, 0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:12.159 literature and peace, and they were first awarded in nineteen 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:16.520 oh one. Some years later, in nineteen sixty eight, however, 0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:20.080 a prize was added in memory of Alfred Nobel, and 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:23.400 that was established by the central bank here in Sweden, 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:27.480 which is called the Risbank, and not surprisingly that is 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:29.679 called now the Economics Prize. 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:33.040 So how important do you think it is then to 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:34.440 Swedish people. 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.320 I think the fact that a Nobel Prize is seen 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:41.480 as you know, the most prestigious award in the world 0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:45.760 in its field is really a source of national pride 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:48.000 for a country that, you know, let's be honest, is 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:51.440 only ten point five million people on the northern edges 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:55.240 of Europe. I think it's worth also noting that Sweden 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.439 is a nation that looks outward beyond its borders in 0:17:58.480 --> 0:18:03.480 many respects. So the international attention that these prizes gone 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:07.760 is of huge importance to the country. Nobel Day on 0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:11.919 December tenth, which is the anniversary of Nobel's death, is 0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:14.760 when the prizes are awarded by the King and there 0:18:14.800 --> 0:18:18.200 is a lavish banquet in Stockholm City Hall. And it's 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:21.639 probably fair to say that that is the biggest academic 0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.000 and cultural highlight of the year in Sweden. 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:29.400 So deliberations normally do take place in secret. So what 0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:31.680 do we know about the process for this year. 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:37.080 Yeah, the process for this year is as with other years. 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:41.520 So Nobel in his will listed the institutions responsible for 0:18:41.600 --> 0:18:45.040 awarding the prize, for example the Royal Swedish Academy of 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:49.120 Sciences and for the Peace Prize it is a committee 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:53.439 of five elected by Norway's Parliament. Then there is an 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:58.879 approved list of nominators, for example former winners, members of 0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:04.359 the Swedish Academy, or professors or chair people affiliated with universities, 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:06.879 and they can then put forward a name and a 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:10.840 voting committee then decides on the winner or winners. There 0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:15.600 can only be three winners per prize. Is the maximum 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:20.240 number of winners per prize, and disclosure about nominations is 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:25.840 restricted for fifty years, so very a process shrouded in secrecy. 0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:30.280 So Katy, let me turn to you the history of 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:35.879 awarding the Peace Prize by Norway to foreign leaders. It 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:37.560 has at times been controversial. 0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:40.720 Well, absolutely, it's been controversial. So one thing to know 0:19:40.760 --> 0:19:43.320 about this prize is you cannot ever give it to 0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:48.720 a person that has deceased, And so living people tend 0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:53.399 to after being awarded, continue their careers and lives, and 0:19:53.480 --> 0:19:58.360 sometimes they do things that don't really kind of fit 0:19:58.440 --> 0:20:00.960 in with the spirit of why they were awarded a 0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:05.840 peace prize. One super well known example is two thousand 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:11.240 and nine when Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:15.679 Prize just nine months after becoming US president, and he 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:18.560 of course went on to take a lot of US 0:20:18.640 --> 0:20:20.000 troops into Afghanistan. 0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:25.080 Yes, and of course we know that President Trump has 0:20:25.119 --> 0:20:29.119 been talking about wanting to win the prize for some time, 0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:35.480 and so again this perhaps put some pressure, adds some 0:20:35.600 --> 0:20:39.160 pressure to these awards. When did we first find out 0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:40.720 about his ambitions? 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:44.840 Trump has been talking about this for almost a decade. 0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:50.240 He keeps bringing up the fact that Obama was given 0:20:50.760 --> 0:20:54.800 the prize and says, you know, if he were named Obama, 0:20:54.960 --> 0:20:57.520 he would have been given this prize. In ten seconds. 0:20:57.640 --> 0:21:03.520 Trump talks about having brokeered peace or helped end seven wars, 0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:07.440 but many of these are actually a little bit questionable. 0:21:07.800 --> 0:21:12.320 Indeed, in terms of the political implications. Then the pressure, 0:21:12.400 --> 0:21:16.879 I wonder whether that is being felt. And maybe also 0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:20.720 we don't know were the US president to win, what 0:21:20.880 --> 0:21:22.880 might be the implications in the fallout. 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:26.720 I think the big question is what if he doesn't win. 0:21:27.480 --> 0:21:31.240 This is where the main implication is or Norway. Really 0:21:31.720 --> 0:21:36.080 very recently, Trump declared that not winning would represent a 0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:40.760 big insult to our country. He there sort of applied 0:21:40.800 --> 0:21:45.600 some pressure on the Norwegians. Norwegians are really worried about this. 0:21:46.200 --> 0:21:50.160 They're bracing for what's happening if Trump doesn't win. Now, 0:21:50.240 --> 0:21:52.760 if Trump were to win, I think a lot of 0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:57.639 people would put to question the sort of foundation of 0:21:57.680 --> 0:22:01.080 the Nobel Peace Prize and what it's done for. But 0:22:01.200 --> 0:22:05.159 the same question has been raised with the previous winner. 0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:08.240 As you know, Obama himself questioned his own. 0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:11.639 Victory indeed, But then, of course, the Peace Prize is 0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:16.440 separate from the Norwegian government. So whilst there might be trepidation, 0:22:17.320 --> 0:22:20.159 how does that factor into the kind of decision making. 0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:23.720 The committee is independent, we know that, and some of 0:22:23.720 --> 0:22:28.080 the controversial decisions it's taken in the past were precisely 0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:32.360 because it is independent. The Norwegian government wanted no conflict 0:22:32.400 --> 0:22:36.320 with China in twenty ten, and yet the committee you know, 0:22:36.400 --> 0:22:38.720 went and awarded the Chinese dissident that year. 0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:43.439 Charles, just coming back to you in our specific sphere, 0:22:43.520 --> 0:22:47.320 there's always lots of interest in the prize in economics, 0:22:47.359 --> 0:22:50.719 as well as the other sciences that are awarded, in 0:22:50.920 --> 0:22:54.880 literature and so on. Again, we don't know very much 0:22:54.920 --> 0:22:58.000