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Speaker 2: We also had a great reporting from our team here
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg overnight about what this administration is looking to
Speaker 2: do with tariffs on a number of things, but electric
Speaker 2: vehicles coming from China being one.
Speaker 3: I'm scratching my head on this one.
Speaker 4: We're talking about a potential fourfold increase in EV tariffs,
Speaker 4: and we've got a Chinese EV maker going public today.
Speaker 4: I'll save my questions on that for later. Josh Wingrove
Speaker 4: is helping with our reporting from the White House, though,
Speaker 4: of course, Bloomberg White House correspondents with us at the
Speaker 4: table right now with more on this. Josh, this could
Speaker 4: happen as soon as next week, is what you're telling us.
Speaker 4: Will these all be rolled out in one event? How
Speaker 4: is this communicated by an administration that might not want
Speaker 4: to look like the Trump White.
Speaker 5: House right now? That's our expectation that's going to be
Speaker 5: one event. Remember, they've already given a teaser with that
Speaker 5: announcement on steel and aluminum a few weeks ago in Pittsburgh,
Speaker 5: and so we think that they're going to roll these
Speaker 5: out right now. The tariff on Chinese auto evs is
Speaker 5: twenty seven and a half percent, so quadrupling that big number.
Speaker 5: I mean, it's still I guess possible that given sometimes
Speaker 5: the rate or the cost of producing goods there, that
Speaker 5: they could still try to find their way to be competitive.
Speaker 5: But this is really about sort of heading off what
Speaker 5: they expect to be both in steel and aluminum as
Speaker 5: well as cars, an increase that's coming as opposed to
Speaker 5: a market that already exists. I'm sure they'll frame it
Speaker 5: like you know, you don't wait for the hurricane to
Speaker 5: hit before you put the storm windows up, right, And
Speaker 5: they are expecting trying to try to sort of dump
Speaker 5: its way out of its woes right now when it
Speaker 5: comes to steel and aluminum and potentially try to overtake
Speaker 5: the auto sector. And as we know, the auto sector
Speaker 5: in every country has been a close guarded political thing
Speaker 5: for quite some time. The twenty twenty four overlays here
Speaker 5: or strong, but this is a big one. This is
Speaker 5: one of the biggest things Joe Biden has done on
Speaker 5: China and in his administration.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's it's worth pointing out that while we
Speaker 2: have had this administration taking this more targeted approach, it
Speaker 2: is in some ways, while they're both being protectionist, slightly
Speaker 2: more muted that Donald Trump, who says, okay, blanket everything
Speaker 2: with sixty percent plus tariffs. I'm potentially going to put
Speaker 2: one hundred percent tariffs on all vehicles.
Speaker 6: He said in the past.
Speaker 2: Why would why would they? What would hold the Biden
Speaker 2: administration back from doing something that intense or extreme.
Speaker 5: Inflation in part? I mean that has been the argument
Speaker 5: against this. You start tacking on these things. You know,
Speaker 5: Trump always said China is paying these tariffs. Of course
Speaker 5: that's not the case, right. Tariffs are paid by the
Speaker 5: importer and passed on in part or in entirety to
Speaker 5: the consumer. So that was sort of hanging over this
Speaker 5: as well. I think one thing here that Biden has
Speaker 5: been weighing is, you know, this is about sort of
Speaker 5: like a strategic long term competition. You go back and
Speaker 5: watch everything Cap and Tie has said, you know, everything
Speaker 5: Jenny Yellen has said, and they talk about, you know,
Speaker 5: China sort of flooding the zone in key sectors, trying
Speaker 5: to corner the mark on critical minerals, over capacity, key whatever,
Speaker 5: and they're trying to box the US out and thinking
Speaker 5: long term in a way that Western democracies don't always
Speaker 5: do or have the luxury to do so. Right now,
Speaker 5: I think that is the lens on this. So autos remember,
Speaker 5: of course Michigan, you know, key battleground for the twenty
Speaker 5: twenty four election. If Joe Biden announces this, I'd be
Speaker 5: surprised if we didn't see him in Michigan pretty soon
Speaker 5: after talking about it. And then these other critical sectors again,
Speaker 5: solar cells we understand is going to have a higher tariff,
Speaker 5: right and maybe some battery components. It's still a little unclear.
Speaker 5: Other products could also see increases. We just don't know
Speaker 5: the full list, and we don't also know how much
Speaker 5: it's jumping. One final thing is that one scenario here
Speaker 5: was well, Joe Biden might raise some on critical industries,
Speaker 5: key battleground type of industries and lower others on more
Speaker 5: benign consumer goods and trying to make it a wash
Speaker 5: overall to mute the reaction in China and perhaps mute
Speaker 5: the risk of retaliation that could hit, for instance, American farmers,
Speaker 5: as it did in the first Trump sort of trades
Speaker 5: bat with China. Our reporting is that's not the case.
Speaker 5: They're not exploring large scale reductions in other categories that
Speaker 5: would offset the increases that they're planning.
Speaker 3: That's fascinating.
Speaker 4: So this presidential campaign will impart be the battle of
Speaker 4: the tariffs.
Speaker 5: And the battle over who can look tougher on China,
Speaker 5: who can beat and that they both want to look
Speaker 5: tough on.
Speaker 1: Jaying this.
Speaker 3: If it weren't for Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: You mentioned Michigan, he could potentially you could see a
Speaker 4: world in which he had gone there on his own.
Speaker 3: But Donald Trump started this.
Speaker 5: I think Joe Biden would bark up this tree either way.
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm reminded of the steel discussion in the
Speaker 5: Japanese buying US steel. I mean, Joe Biden is an
Speaker 5: you know, eighty one year old guy from Scranton, Pennsylvania
Speaker 5: doesn't like the idea of selling US steel, and I
Speaker 5: think that is informing a lot of his approach. Joe Biden, Well,
Speaker 5: you know, under Obama was tasked with rescuing the auto sector.
Speaker 5: The idea of Chinese EV's putting aside the potential data
Speaker 5: concerns that a lot of people have with them. But
Speaker 5: you know, just simply the market share question, Joe Biden,
Speaker 5: I don't think would have liked that as well. So,
Speaker 5: you know, we do have bipartisan consensus on a lot
Speaker 5: of these things, right, Biden and Trump are both using
Speaker 5: these terraffs. Of course, Biden's essentially deciding to keep in
Speaker 5: place the vast majority of the Trump terraffs, which of
Speaker 5: course a lot of Democrats didn't necessarily love when you
Speaker 5: put them in. So there is agreement here, kind of
Speaker 5: a rare point of agreement, to say the least, between
Speaker 5: the two of them.
Speaker 2: Finally, when we're talking about the industries, at least that
Speaker 2: we know of that you're reporting indicates EVS, solar batteries
Speaker 2: that will power these green technologies. Doesn't the Biden administration
Speaker 2: want more of these technologies in the United States? Right?
Speaker 2: They want to transition, They want to reach and at
Speaker 2: zero within a certain number of years. By holding China
Speaker 2: back from being able to enter this market, does it
Speaker 2: actually run counter to some of those goals that they have.
Speaker 5: This is one of the things that they're grappling with
Speaker 5: and why we will be paying such close attention. I
Speaker 5: would love to tell you right now. I would love
Speaker 5: to tell you so right now, we just don't know
Speaker 5: what solar and battery type goods they will maintain or
Speaker 5: maybe even potentially reduced tariffs on, because they're critical for
Speaker 5: feeding American growth in that sector versus ones that they're
Speaker 5: going to raise tariffs on to keep them out from
Speaker 5: undercutting the sector. It's a balancing act, and right now
Speaker 5: we just don't know how they're going to split it up.
Speaker 2: Well, all right, Well, great reporting from josh Win Grove
Speaker 2: and our team here at Bloomberg. Key of course covers
Speaker 2: the White House for us absolutely fascinating and to his point, Joe,
Speaker 2: the idea that everyone wants to be a hawk on China,
Speaker 2: and that doesn't just go for the presidential race. You
Speaker 2: could say the same about Congress as well, and protectionist policy.
Speaker 2: Regardless of what administration ultimately we end up with come
Speaker 2: January twenty twenty five, it's probably going.
Speaker 6: To be a common denominator.
Speaker 4: Well, that's absolutely right, and you've been seeing the solar
Speaker 4: stocks among others move on. This just incredible to think that,
Speaker 4: you know, reminded in our last hour this is the
Speaker 4: longest general election campaign in modern history, and we're going
Speaker 4: to be having conversations like this for months further, which
Speaker 4: could be a real strain on our relationship with countries
Speaker 4: like China.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and not only is it the longest election campaign
Speaker 2: in general election campaign in history that makes this remarkable,
Speaker 2: it's also the first time we've ever seen a president
Speaker 2: and current presumptive Republican nominee in criminal court at the
Speaker 2: same time that this general election campaign is underway. Because yes,
Speaker 2: it's another day in court in New York in the
Speaker 2: hush money trial of Donald Trump. After Stormy Daniels had
Speaker 2: two days of testimony and cross examination earlier this week,
Speaker 2: we understand that Michael Cohen, his former attorney and fixer,
Speaker 2: will be testifying on Monday. So where exactly do things
Speaker 2: stand for the prosecution and defense joining us now here
Speaker 2: on balance of powers. Robert mcmurder, he is a criminal
Speaker 2: and constitutional law attorney. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: It's always great to have you here.
Speaker 6: Robert.
Speaker 2: Let's just begin with Stormy Daniels. Considering the salacious nature
Speaker 2: of much of her testimony, the attempts of the defense
Speaker 2: to actually have a mistrial declared over it. Does she
Speaker 2: end up helping or hurting the prosecution's case more from
Speaker 2: what you saw.
Speaker 7: Well, I think that she certainly helped the prosecution's case.
Speaker 7: I don't think that the defense was very good at
Speaker 7: really attagging her or her credibility. She was able to
Speaker 7: hold her own ground, and I think she very well
Speaker 7: kind of presented what those facts were. But I do
Speaker 7: think it's important to put this in context, which is,
Speaker 7: even if you do not believe anything that Stormy Daniels says,
Speaker 7: it does not mean that mister Trump did not commit
Speaker 7: a crime here. What seems that the defense doesn't seem
Speaker 7: to dispute that he paid one hundred and thirty thousand
Speaker 7: dollars to stornymy Daniels. Now, either he was doing it
Speaker 7: because he had slept with her and he didn't want
Speaker 7: that story to get out, or like he's trying to
Speaker 7: imply that she's an extortionist and he paid it in
Speaker 7: order to keep that story from getting out. It doesn't
Speaker 7: matter because it's still a campaign finance violation. You kind
Speaker 7: of put out one hundred and thirty thousand dollars as
Speaker 7: a benefit to a campaign, You got to report that,
Speaker 7: and the heart of this case is actually mister David
Speaker 7: Pecker's testimony and the paper trail they have showing all
Speaker 7: of this and kill little scheme which was a benefit
Speaker 7: to Donald Trump's presidential campaign that was unreported under campaign
Speaker 7: finance laws. And whether you believe Stormy Daniels or not
Speaker 7: is irrelevant because he's not disputing that one hundred and
Speaker 7: thirty thousand dollars went out the door from him. So
Speaker 7: it's really interesting. The prosecution is really put together a
Speaker 7: very smart case. It's not just about some misdemeanor with
Speaker 7: Stormy Daniels. It's about violating campaign finance laws, which are felonies.
Speaker 4: Does Donald Trump need new lawyers, Robert, I don't know
Speaker 4: if you're available right now, but Wanmer Shawn the judge
Speaker 4: made it pretty clear that they're not doing their job
Speaker 4: very well calling for mistrials instead of objecting in real
Speaker 4: time to witnesses like Stormy Daniels.
Speaker 3: Are they doing a disservice to Donald Trump.
Speaker 7: Well, they most certainly are, But I think that's just
Speaker 7: part of a silly tech. Everybody knows you object at
Speaker 7: the time the testimony comes out to allow a judge
Speaker 7: to take corrective action. If you want to make a
Speaker 7: drama out of the mistrial theme, because this is Donald
Speaker 7: Trump's political theme. It's a witch hunt. It's bad, it
Speaker 7: should be a mistrial, blah blah blah. Well, then you
Speaker 7: hold off doing your proper objections and then object and
Speaker 7: ask for a mistrial, because you know, asking for a
Speaker 7: mistrial is way more sexy than just giving some objection
Speaker 7: during testimony. So I just think it's just part of
Speaker 7: the show, to be honest with you. The quality of
Speaker 7: his lawyering, well, that's that's an open question. Donald Trump
Speaker 7: is an impossible client. I mean reports that you get
Speaker 7: is he's angry with his lawyers for not being aggressive enough.
Speaker 3: I think that's just silly.
Speaker 7: And his lawyers wouldn't be servative if they were. So
Speaker 7: does he need no lawyers?
Speaker 8: I don't know.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure i'd be available for him.
Speaker 6: So we got that well.
Speaker 2: As we speak, Robert in our audience on Bloomberg Television
Speaker 2: and could see Donald Trump is actually outside the courthouse
Speaker 2: right now addressing the media, appears to be reading some
Speaker 2: papers and holding them up for the cameras to see.
Speaker 2: Of course, if he says anything relevant, we will bring
Speaker 2: that to our television and radio audience, and once trial
Speaker 2: proceedings wrap up for today Robert, come Monday, we understand
Speaker 2: Michael Cohen will be on the stand. He has been pegged,
Speaker 2: or at least described as the prosecution star witness, considering
Speaker 2: what we saw though in the defence's cross examination of
Speaker 2: Stormy Daniels, and knowing there are questions around the credibility
Speaker 2: of Michael Cohen, given, for example, he spent time in jail.
Speaker 2: How difficult is it going to be for the prosecution
Speaker 2: and for the defense to deal with him as a witness.
Speaker 7: Well, it's interesting. Michael Cohen, I believe, is a much
Speaker 7: more important witness to the actual crime than, for instance,
Speaker 7: Stormy Daniels is. But he's also pretty much an open book.
Speaker 7: We know exactly what he's going to say, and we
Speaker 7: know exactly what they're going to do to try to
Speaker 7: attack him, and he's got a pretty good public narrative
Speaker 7: about he kind of had an epiphany about his role
Speaker 7: in helping Donald Trump, and he has gone ahead and
Speaker 7: presented that.
Speaker 9: Now.
Speaker 7: It's interesting, though, because what the prosecutor has done is
Speaker 7: put a whole series of other witnesses, including Hope Hicks,
Speaker 7: to lay the foundation for what Michael Cohen says, not
Speaker 7: the foundation for what Stormy Daniels has testified, but for
Speaker 7: what Michael Cohen says. So even if they attack him, well,
Speaker 7: I'm sorry, these payments are still going out the door
Speaker 7: and Michael Cohen was facilitating them and that is the
Speaker 7: crime here. So you know, can the prosecution win points, yes,
Speaker 7: can the defense attack them, certainly? But I'll give an example.
Speaker 7: There are cases large drug conspiracies that go to trial
Speaker 7: all the time with very ugly cooperating witnesses who the
Speaker 7: jury dislikes, who are not nice people, but they believe
Speaker 7: them perfectly fine when they point the finger at other
Speaker 7: co defendants. And there are convictions that happen that way
Speaker 7: all the time. So the jury doesn't have to like
Speaker 7: Michael Cohen. They might think he's a total scumbag, but
Speaker 7: that doesn't mean they're not going to believe his testimony
Speaker 7: about what occurred here, our.
Speaker 4: Last moment here, Robert, the prosecution says it will rest
Speaker 4: next week.
Speaker 3: Does that mean we're on time?
Speaker 5: Oh?
Speaker 7: Yes, In fact, I had predicted this case would go
Speaker 7: quickly because you won. It's a very good prosecution too.
Speaker 3: This is a good judge.
Speaker 7: He knows his stuff and he doesn't waste time. I'm
Speaker 7: not sure. Also, how much more of the defense has
Speaker 7: got to say? I mean, what are they going to
Speaker 7: put on after this? So I think this trial is
Speaker 7: going to be done certainly, mid Well, I would be
Speaker 7: shocked if this trial isn't done before the end of
Speaker 7: this month.
Speaker 3: You have it.
Speaker 4: You've been consistent on that, Robert, and we appreciate that
Speaker 4: he's the one who said it would be done in
Speaker 4: fewer than say to eight weeks. Robert mcwurd or, criminal
Speaker 4: constitutional law attorney, Thank you as always for coming back
Speaker 4: to talk to us.
Speaker 3: Robert.
Speaker 4: Next week, Kaylee could be something else with Michael Cohen
Speaker 4: at last on the stand.
Speaker 6: Yeah, we've been long waiting for it.
Speaker 2: Who knows how many days of testimony we could see
Speaker 2: from him again, we saw two full days from Stormy
Speaker 2: Daniels effectively. But if the prosecution thinks they're going to
Speaker 2: be done by the end of next week and they're
Speaker 2: going to have Wednesday off, potentially Friday too for Baron
Speaker 2: Trump's graduation, we could be getting close to the endgame here.
Speaker 3: This is true.
Speaker 4: We'll stay in touch with Robert mcwurder on this story
Speaker 4: for you. We're going to assemble our panel next Rick
Speaker 4: Davis and Genie Shanzino with us on the Fastest Show
Speaker 4: in Politics. Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 4: and Radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 2: You're in Washington, where things might be getting a little
Speaker 2: noisier in terms of jet noise, at least at Ronald
Speaker 2: Reagan National Airport. No, because guess what, Joe, For all
Speaker 2: of the talk around maybe forcing an amendment vote to
Speaker 2: make sure that no extra flights were added right out
Speaker 2: of DCA, and the best efforts of the senators of
Speaker 2: neighboring states Virginia and Maryland, the Senate passed the FAA
Speaker 2: reauthorization last night, and guess what.
Speaker 3: All the flights are in there.
Speaker 4: So so I'll keep waking up when the airplanes start
Speaker 4: taking off every day, unless that becomes an earlier call.
Speaker 4: Next door to National Airport, where I happened to reside.
Speaker 4: I'm just wondering the hour I spent on the tarmac
Speaker 4: last weekend waiting for a gate.
Speaker 3: Does that get longer or shorter because of this?
Speaker 2: Well, the senators from Virginia and Maryland were arguing that
Speaker 2: it would make delays.
Speaker 6: They sure did delayed.
Speaker 4: Tim Kaine and cross safety issue, Mark Warner what they said,
Speaker 4: that's correct.
Speaker 6: Van Holland not happy.
Speaker 3: That's right.
Speaker 4: Look, we've had a series of, you know, close calls
Speaker 4: on the runways here the tarmac. I don't have to
Speaker 4: go through. Wheels are falling off airplanes. But we're going
Speaker 4: to add more flights at National.
Speaker 10: Let's do it.
Speaker 6: Can't wait.
Speaker 4: It's going to be fun, is our panel here? Rick
Speaker 4: Davis knows about this, so does Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors.
Speaker 4: They actually get something done on the Senate. Although Rick
Speaker 4: I have to ask you about this. He used to
Speaker 4: deal with these flights with John McCain right getting out
Speaker 4: of National Airport. Didn't you guys widen the perimeter the
Speaker 4: radius on this thing?
Speaker 1: Is it?
Speaker 3: Should these flights be added or what?
Speaker 9: Yeah?
Speaker 11: John McCain was under enormous pressure when he was a
Speaker 11: Commerce chairman to add flights, and he did, and one
Speaker 11: of them actually went to Arizona. And prior to that
Speaker 11: you had I remember this connection. And John McCain, to
Speaker 11: his credit, never took the direct flight after having approved it,
Speaker 11: so he didn't want people to think he was doing
Speaker 11: it out of self interest and kind of the opposite
Speaker 11: of the Virginia delegation. You were just mentioning who out
Speaker 11: of their own self interest said no more new flight.
Speaker 11: So the bottom line is it's going to get more
Speaker 11: congested at National Airport.
Speaker 1: Shock and surprise.
Speaker 2: I just have to say, as someone who has lived
Speaker 2: in both Washington and New York, I would take Reagan
Speaker 2: National Airport over LaGuardia, JFK or New York basically every.
Speaker 6: Day of the week. Genie, I don't know. I don't
Speaker 6: know if you agree with me on that one.
Speaker 2: But it's also worth noting that the Senate has passed
Speaker 2: this new flights included. Yes, but now that the Senate's
Speaker 2: done this and the House just has to pass it
Speaker 2: next to make sure this thing is reauthorized for the
Speaker 2: next five years. Did we just see effectively all major
Speaker 2: legislative work wrapped up for the one hundred and eighteenth Congress.
Speaker 2: We did.
Speaker 8: First of all, Kaylee, I couldn't agree more. All of
Speaker 8: those people who live around La Guardians JFK. They feel
Speaker 8: your cunning pain, but you know they felt it for
Speaker 8: a long time up here, you know, I think. So,
Speaker 8: you know, it's getting noisier in the skies over DC,
Speaker 8: but quieter in Congress, as they say, because this is
Speaker 8: probably the last big bill to go out. I mean,
Speaker 8: will you know, some movement on the farm bill, of course,
Speaker 8: and thinking about potentially the issue of the budget for
Speaker 8: next year at least by far as extending the deadline
Speaker 8: beyond the election. But you know, that's pretty much it.
Speaker 8: And I think, you know, you do have some people
Speaker 8: in Congress who are sad about that prospect because there's
Speaker 8: other things they wanted to get done. And of course
Speaker 8: it is sort of you know, the coming end of
Speaker 8: one of the most historic congresses in not such a
Speaker 8: great way in terms of the number of bills they've
Speaker 8: been able to pass. So you know, between the speaker
Speaker 8: fights the lack of bills, it has been quite a
Speaker 8: historic Congress, and not for great reasons.
Speaker 4: Well, we saw a lot of important things happen this week,
Speaker 4: including the attempt at ouster of the Speaker of the House,
Speaker 4: and Mike Johnson has been talking about this sat down
Speaker 4: with Politico Rick to talk about the experience and what
Speaker 4: he thinks might follow it, remembering that he was saved
Speaker 4: in part with the help of Democrats. Here's Mike Johnson
Speaker 4: in his conversation with Politico.
Speaker 10: Look, we have a job to do here. We have
Speaker 10: to govern. I'm glad that that was done. I mean,
Speaker 10: let's rip the bandad off and get it done. I
Speaker 10: regret that it had to come to that. I spent
Speaker 10: a lot of time talking with Thomas Massey and Marjorie
Speaker 10: Taylor Green and even Paul goos are about it. It's
Speaker 10: the way I operated.
Speaker 4: And now apparently he says he actually spoke with Marjorie
Speaker 4: Taylor Green, Tom Massey Rick as soon as they got
Speaker 4: off the floor following this motion to vacate vote. Does
Speaker 4: Mike Johnson try to rebuild the Republican conference or just
Speaker 4: walk with the help of Democrats from here, you know?
Speaker 11: I mean, there's so much anxiety now within the Republican
Speaker 11: Caucus in this latest attempt by Marjorie Taylor Green and
Speaker 11: tapas top of the leadership. It only exasperated this. These
Speaker 11: people really dislike each other. I mean, there's no putting
Speaker 11: Humpty dumpty back together again in this caucus. And insomuch
Speaker 11: as they're gonna make it to election day, and if
Speaker 11: Republicans win the majority in the House, they're gonna have
Speaker 11: to really look inside and say how we gonna manage this.
Speaker 11: Whether there's one majority leader, you know, one vote that
Speaker 11: gets them into majority, or if it's you know ten,
Speaker 11: they still have a massive split in their caucus. And
Speaker 11: so I think it's really going to be incumbent upon
Speaker 11: Johnson just to keep the voter float between now an
Speaker 11: election day. Don't cause any more consternation, and you have
Speaker 11: to and I'm sure he was telling those members who
Speaker 11: tried to ask him, like, can we just focus on
Speaker 11: the elections and not focus on, you know, your sort
Speaker 11: of party tricks that make you get more clicks in
Speaker 11: your social media and let's just get down to the
Speaker 11: business of governing. So there is a frustration within the
Speaker 11: Republican Party with each other, much more so than with
Speaker 11: the Democrats, which I think was reflected in this interview
Speaker 11: where he talks about hot Gem Jeffery's in a very
Speaker 11: that's unlike how he talks about some of his own
Speaker 11: Republican caucus members.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty remarkable to hear the not reverent but
Speaker 2: at least kind language for some of the Democrats in
Speaker 2: this interview, Genie. But as Rick was just talking about
Speaker 2: how he basically Mike Johnson was probably to all of
Speaker 2: his colleagues.
Speaker 6: Look, you just need to focus on the campaign.
Speaker 2: It is, after all, an election year, and right now,
Speaker 2: the prevailing thinking is that the House is more likely
Speaker 2: to flip back to the Democrats than to stay in
Speaker 2: Republican hands, just given the map, given to what you
Speaker 2: were speaking to earlier, Genie, the dysfunction, the general lack
Speaker 2: of legislative work that has been done over the last
Speaker 2: year and a half. If they don't do much going forward,
Speaker 2: can they do anything to change that status quo assumption,
Speaker 2: to change the mind of the opinion of this Republican
Speaker 2: led House of Representatives.
Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, I don't think they can change the
Speaker 8: view people have of the dysfunction that has been the House.
Speaker 8: That's why they all want to get out of there,
Speaker 8: get back to their districts and do something that our
Speaker 8: representatives do quite well across the board, which is serve constituents.
Speaker 8: That's why they have really high reelection rates. I think
Speaker 8: it's going to be a close election. I have to
Speaker 8: tell you, I was struck by the fact in that
Speaker 8: interview that that Mike Johnson, you know, is hearkening back
Speaker 8: to you know, Tip O'Neal, Ronald Reagan. He wants a
Speaker 8: time in Washington that no longer exists. And I'm worried
Speaker 8: about him, quite frankly, because he didn't pay as much
Speaker 8: lip service to Donald Trump as he may need to
Speaker 8: to retain his position should they win. Like when they
Speaker 8: asked him about the issue of Jack Smith, he was like, yeah, no,
Speaker 8: nothing we can do. We're not going to go for that. So,
Speaker 8: you know, I think there's some real questions here. And
Speaker 8: since Rick is like to read, you know, likes to
Speaker 8: read truths. Now we know that Donald Trump has been
Speaker 8: speaking to that and the video that was out there
Speaker 8: him saying he just loves Marjorie Taylor Green. So if
Speaker 8: I was Mike Johnson, I would hug Donald Trump a
Speaker 8: little closer if he wants to keep this job going forward,
Speaker 8: whether as Speaker or Minority leader.
Speaker 4: Wow, well, I'll tell you what I have hope, Rick
Speaker 4: and Jeanie and Kayley, who, by the way, interviewed Senator
Speaker 4: Rafael Warnock earlier this week and a very important announcement
Speaker 4: this morning, and I'll bet you Rick has memories of this.
Speaker 4: Rafael Warnock, Democrat from Georgia, and Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican
Speaker 4: from Louisiana, of course, are going to be national co
Speaker 4: chairs of National Seersucker Day. And that's of course a
Speaker 4: big deal in the US Senate, the eleventh annual, Rick,
Speaker 4: It'll be celebrated June thirteenth. It's things like Seersucker Day
Speaker 4: and the great Senate tradition that keep the gears turning
Speaker 4: in Washington?
Speaker 3: Am I wrong?
Speaker 11: I'm trying to choose between my pink pinstripe seersucker or
Speaker 11: my blue pin stripe seersucker. But you'll see me in
Speaker 11: it on Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: That's a big promise. I have a lot to live
Speaker 3: up to there. I'm not sure I could pull that
Speaker 3: off like Rick.
Speaker 2: So maybe when Rick is back in the five PM
Speaker 2: edition of Power will have seen an outfit change.
Speaker 6: Perhaps, Rick, is that a commitment?
Speaker 3: Do I have to red exactly?
Speaker 4: You're on the record, Rick, I don't think most Americans
Speaker 4: knew there was a pink seer sucker Actually we're learning
Speaker 4: a lot as we go.
Speaker 3: Here, I think about the blue and white. Are you
Speaker 3: with me there?
Speaker 8: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Sure?
Speaker 4: All right, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, thank you for
Speaker 4: humoring us as always and for the great analysis our
Speaker 4: signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors.
Speaker 3: June thirteen, Kaylee put it on the calendar.
Speaker 6: All right, there we go.
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Speaker 4: We are still waiting for word on a potential cease fire,
Speaker 4: and now there is an expectation that the State Department
Speaker 4: will soon submit a report to Congress that could be
Speaker 4: highly critical about Israel's conduct in Gaza. Kayley, this is
Speaker 4: something that is following Joe Biden as president and as
Speaker 4: a presidential candidate, and got a lot more complex this week.
Speaker 4: This report could make this more difficult yet absolutely.
Speaker 2: Of course, we heard from President Biden in his CNN
Speaker 2: interview earlier this week about the pause shipment of bombs
Speaker 2: that the US for now has put on hold to Israel.
Speaker 2: He said, these have been used to kill civilians in Gaza,
Speaker 2: and part of the reason that the US is not
Speaker 2: sending them, at least at this time is out of
Speaker 2: concern of how they may be used against a city
Speaker 2: in which there is more than a million Palestinian civilians
Speaker 2: currently taking shelter. They're very concerned about Rafa and are
Speaker 2: of course repeatedly warning the Israeli government and the Israeli
Speaker 2: Army not to conduct a massive operation there.
Speaker 6: But in the face of.
Speaker 2: That, the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's still rather defiant. He
Speaker 2: had this to say in an interview just yesterday.
Speaker 9: I've said in the Holocaust memorial service that we had
Speaker 9: the other day, I said in the Holocaust we stood alone,
Speaker 9: but we were defenseless, and today, if Israel has to
Speaker 9: stand alone, we'll stand alone.
Speaker 4: That was on the Doctor phil program, yes, Kayleie, which
Speaker 4: is really incredible when you consider the optics there, the
Speaker 4: audience they were trying to reach.
Speaker 3: I know, they apparently have a long relationship, but that
Speaker 3: was not.
Speaker 6: By accident, No, certainly not.
Speaker 2: And of course he has also said in his commentary
Speaker 2: over the last day or so that Israel will fight
Speaker 2: tooth and nail if they need to, because they have
Speaker 2: a fight, of course that they are looking to finish.
Speaker 2: We want to get more perspective on this now with
Speaker 2: Dale Buckner. He is the CEO of Global Guardian. He
Speaker 2: also is a retired Army colonel. Dale, thanks so much
Speaker 2: for coming to us here on Balance of Power on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. When we consider what this rop
Speaker 2: operation ultimately may look like, what difference does the receipt
Speaker 2: of these US weapons or not ultimately make.
Speaker 12: Hayley, In the short term, I don't think it makes
Speaker 12: a lot of difference.
Speaker 3: And here's why.
Speaker 12: Sixty nine percent of all of the military support that
Speaker 12: Israel has comes from the United States. They have a
Speaker 12: lot of munitions as of right now. So as you
Speaker 12: think about going in, if the United States was to
Speaker 12: stop as of this week sending two thousand to thirty
Speaker 12: two one hundred pound bombs, that's the primary thing that's
Speaker 12: being pulled back. In the short term, it doesn't make
Speaker 12: much difference. Now, this goes on for another six months,
Speaker 12: a year, two years, and or Israeli the Israelis then
Speaker 12: turn north and as discussed previously, start to then escalate
Speaker 12: towards Lebanon. Then it would have a real long term effect.
Speaker 4: We've been hearing about shelling in Rafa, We've been hearing
Speaker 4: about the IDF controlling the gates on the Egyptian border
Speaker 4: in Rafa, and other operations that have been happening inside
Speaker 4: the city. Is the invasion of Rafa already underway.
Speaker 12: So it is underway, it's very limited. If you look
Speaker 12: at the map in the southeast corner down near the
Speaker 12: Rafa gate. So far the IDF has gone into in
Speaker 12: a very limited capacity. Now, as discussed and just recently
Speaker 12: announced today, the War Cabinet has approved a larger scale operation.
Speaker 12: That being said, don't expect a massive IDF invasion overnight
Speaker 12: or in the next few days. You have to understand
Speaker 12: there's about four to six battalions of MOSS left and
Speaker 12: more importantly, and this is really the key tactically, the
Speaker 12: remaining hostages that we believe are alive and those four
Speaker 12: to six battalions are all in a very small area.
Speaker 12: So as you think about this, this is where precision
Speaker 12: will matter, and this is where you can expect you're
Speaker 12: trying to thread the needle where you're trying to take
Speaker 12: out and a trit the Hamas fighters that are left.
Speaker 12: At the same time, the real risk of dropping large
Speaker 12: munitions is you could start killing Israeli hostages. This is
Speaker 12: going to be very difficult.
Speaker 2: Well, and even if you are trying to be precise, Dale,
Speaker 2: what we consistently hear about Hamas is that they use
Speaker 2: women and children as literal human shields that they specifically hide.
Speaker 2: Have their operations based in areas in which there is
Speaker 2: a high likelihood of collateral damage?
Speaker 6: Is there?
Speaker 2: I guess my real question is is there any way
Speaker 2: that Israel can do this, can take out the remaining
Speaker 2: battalions without that death toll going higher than the north
Speaker 2: of thirty thousand it already is.
Speaker 12: Yeah, I think that you can. On the outskirts and
Speaker 12: the perimeter of this, you can continue to attret Hamas,
Speaker 12: especially if they have good intelligence. Now where it gets
Speaker 12: really messy, and make no mistake, war is messy. As
Speaker 12: precise as it appears to be on video games, that's
Speaker 12: not the real world. We've already experienced this now since
Speaker 12: October seventh. Trying to separate civilians and hostages is almost
Speaker 12: an impossible task. So to your point, Kayley, I think
Speaker 12: that on the perimeter you can continue to put pressure
Speaker 12: ultimately hoping as you think about the negotiations, we're probably
Speaker 12: down to two or three key terms as we look
Speaker 12: forward to trying to find a ceasefire. This is pressure
Speaker 12: on the outskirts. As I talked to Joe last time,
Speaker 12: Nott Yahoo has been saying for several months now he's
Speaker 12: going into to Rafa and he has it not at
Speaker 12: scale now, it's limited. Now I think you see attacks
Speaker 12: in the periphered. He continue a trit put pressure diplomatically
Speaker 12: and from a military standpoint, and ultimately try and find
Speaker 12: a path to a negotiation while applying limited tactical pressure.
Speaker 4: Kale, We've been focused on the South for the balance
Speaker 4: of this conversation. Are you hearing anything new about Israel
Speaker 4: moving to the north and if it does, in fact
Speaker 4: decides to make a move on Hesballah, will it be
Speaker 4: this type of approach, starting small before going to scale.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 12: So if you're if you're watching closely, there's been an
Speaker 12: escalation in the north. Three IDF soldiers have now been
Speaker 12: killed in the last twenty four hours. There is increases
Speaker 12: in attacks both sides. So yes, as we've talked Joe,
Speaker 12: there's a movement afoot it's limited and to your point,
Speaker 12: I do think this starts out in a limited capacity
Speaker 12: as they figure out. Again, you have different agendas being
Speaker 12: played out. You have a political agenda, you have a
Speaker 12: man Tearian agenda, a diplomatic agenda. All these things are
Speaker 12: not aligned right now and it's going to be very
Speaker 12: interesting to see what happens next. No one knows when
Speaker 12: and how, but there is ben and Essa has been
Speaker 12: an escalation on that Lebanese border, and depending on how
Speaker 12: this pressure in the South and the negotiations go, that
Speaker 12: will be an indicator what might be next steps in
Speaker 12: the North with Lebanon.
Speaker 4: Stay tuned to this space for more on that. Dale Buckner,
Speaker 4: it's great to see you, Dale, Thanks for coming back
Speaker 4: to talk just as the CEO of Global Guarding and
Speaker 4: a retired Army colonel to disaperies.
Speaker 3: In the field.
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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