1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,759 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then proud with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: We also had a great reporting from our team here 7 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg overnight about what this administration is looking to 8 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,199 Speaker 2: do with tariffs on a number of things, but electric 9 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 2: vehicles coming from China being one. 10 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 3: I'm scratching my head on this one. 11 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 4: We're talking about a potential fourfold increase in EV tariffs, 12 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 4: and we've got a Chinese EV maker going public today. 13 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,559 Speaker 4: I'll save my questions on that for later. Josh Wingrove 14 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 4: is helping with our reporting from the White House, though, 15 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 4: of course, Bloomberg White House correspondents with us at the 16 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 4: table right now with more on this. Josh, this could 17 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 4: happen as soon as next week, is what you're telling us. 18 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 4: Will these all be rolled out in one event? How 19 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 4: is this communicated by an administration that might not want 20 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 4: to look like the Trump White. 21 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 5: House right now? That's our expectation that's going to be 22 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 5: one event. Remember, they've already given a teaser with that 23 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 5: announcement on steel and aluminum a few weeks ago in Pittsburgh, 24 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 5: and so we think that they're going to roll these 25 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 5: out right now. The tariff on Chinese auto evs is 26 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 5: twenty seven and a half percent, so quadrupling that big number. 27 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:28,080 Speaker 5: I mean, it's still I guess possible that given sometimes 28 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 5: the rate or the cost of producing goods there, that 29 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 5: they could still try to find their way to be competitive. 30 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 5: But this is really about sort of heading off what 31 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 5: they expect to be both in steel and aluminum as 32 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 5: well as cars, an increase that's coming as opposed to 33 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 5: a market that already exists. I'm sure they'll frame it 34 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 5: like you know, you don't wait for the hurricane to 35 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 5: hit before you put the storm windows up, right, And 36 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 5: they are expecting trying to try to sort of dump 37 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 5: its way out of its woes right now when it 38 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 5: comes to steel and aluminum and potentially try to overtake 39 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 5: the auto sector. And as we know, the auto sector 40 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 5: in every country has been a close guarded political thing 41 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 5: for quite some time. The twenty twenty four overlays here 42 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 5: or strong, but this is a big one. This is 43 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 5: one of the biggest things Joe Biden has done on 44 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:08,839 Speaker 5: China and in his administration. 45 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's it's worth pointing out that while we 46 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 2: have had this administration taking this more targeted approach, it 47 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 2: is in some ways, while they're both being protectionist, slightly 48 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 2: more muted that Donald Trump, who says, okay, blanket everything 49 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 2: with sixty percent plus tariffs. I'm potentially going to put 50 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 2: one hundred percent tariffs on all vehicles. 51 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 6: He said in the past. 52 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 2: Why would why would they? What would hold the Biden 53 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 2: administration back from doing something that intense or extreme. 54 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 5: Inflation in part? I mean that has been the argument 55 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 5: against this. You start tacking on these things. You know, 56 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 5: Trump always said China is paying these tariffs. Of course 57 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 5: that's not the case, right. Tariffs are paid by the 58 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 5: importer and passed on in part or in entirety to 59 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 5: the consumer. So that was sort of hanging over this 60 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 5: as well. I think one thing here that Biden has 61 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,079 Speaker 5: been weighing is, you know, this is about sort of 62 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 5: like a strategic long term competition. You go back and 63 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 5: watch everything Cap and Tie has said, you know, everything 64 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 5: Jenny Yellen has said, and they talk about, you know, 65 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 5: China sort of flooding the zone in key sectors, trying 66 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 5: to corner the mark on critical minerals, over capacity, key whatever, 67 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 5: and they're trying to box the US out and thinking 68 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 5: long term in a way that Western democracies don't always 69 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 5: do or have the luxury to do so. Right now, 70 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 5: I think that is the lens on this. So autos remember, 71 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 5: of course Michigan, you know, key battleground for the twenty 72 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 5: twenty four election. If Joe Biden announces this, I'd be 73 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 5: surprised if we didn't see him in Michigan pretty soon 74 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 5: after talking about it. And then these other critical sectors again, 75 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 5: solar cells we understand is going to have a higher tariff, 76 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 5: right and maybe some battery components. It's still a little unclear. 77 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 5: Other products could also see increases. We just don't know 78 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 5: the full list, and we don't also know how much 79 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 5: it's jumping. One final thing is that one scenario here 80 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 5: was well, Joe Biden might raise some on critical industries, 81 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 5: key battleground type of industries and lower others on more 82 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 5: benign consumer goods and trying to make it a wash 83 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 5: overall to mute the reaction in China and perhaps mute 84 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 5: the risk of retaliation that could hit, for instance, American farmers, 85 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 5: as it did in the first Trump sort of trades 86 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 5: bat with China. Our reporting is that's not the case. 87 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 5: They're not exploring large scale reductions in other categories that 88 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 5: would offset the increases that they're planning. 89 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 3: That's fascinating. 90 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 4: So this presidential campaign will impart be the battle of 91 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 4: the tariffs. 92 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 5: And the battle over who can look tougher on China, 93 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 5: who can beat and that they both want to look 94 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 5: tough on. 95 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: Jaying this. 96 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 3: If it weren't for Donald Trump. 97 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 4: You mentioned Michigan, he could potentially you could see a 98 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 4: world in which he had gone there on his own. 99 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 3: But Donald Trump started this. 100 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 5: I think Joe Biden would bark up this tree either way. 101 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 5: I mean, I'm reminded of the steel discussion in the 102 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 5: Japanese buying US steel. I mean, Joe Biden is an 103 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 5: you know, eighty one year old guy from Scranton, Pennsylvania 104 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:47,480 Speaker 5: doesn't like the idea of selling US steel, and I 105 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 5: think that is informing a lot of his approach. Joe Biden, Well, 106 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 5: you know, under Obama was tasked with rescuing the auto sector. 107 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,239 Speaker 5: The idea of Chinese EV's putting aside the potential data 108 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 5: concerns that a lot of people have with them. But 109 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,479 Speaker 5: you know, just simply the market share question, Joe Biden, 110 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 5: I don't think would have liked that as well. So, 111 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 5: you know, we do have bipartisan consensus on a lot 112 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 5: of these things, right, Biden and Trump are both using 113 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 5: these terraffs. Of course, Biden's essentially deciding to keep in 114 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 5: place the vast majority of the Trump terraffs, which of 115 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 5: course a lot of Democrats didn't necessarily love when you 116 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 5: put them in. So there is agreement here, kind of 117 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 5: a rare point of agreement, to say the least, between 118 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 5: the two of them. 119 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 2: Finally, when we're talking about the industries, at least that 120 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:30,840 Speaker 2: we know of that you're reporting indicates EVS, solar batteries 121 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 2: that will power these green technologies. Doesn't the Biden administration 122 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 2: want more of these technologies in the United States? Right? 123 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 2: They want to transition, They want to reach and at 124 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 2: zero within a certain number of years. By holding China 125 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 2: back from being able to enter this market, does it 126 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 2: actually run counter to some of those goals that they have. 127 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 5: This is one of the things that they're grappling with 128 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 5: and why we will be paying such close attention. I 129 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 5: would love to tell you right now. I would love 130 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 5: to tell you so right now, we just don't know 131 00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 5: what solar and battery type goods they will maintain or 132 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 5: maybe even potentially reduced tariffs on, because they're critical for 133 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 5: feeding American growth in that sector versus ones that they're 134 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:07,600 Speaker 5: going to raise tariffs on to keep them out from 135 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 5: undercutting the sector. It's a balancing act, and right now 136 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 5: we just don't know how they're going to split it up. 137 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 2: Well, all right, Well, great reporting from josh Win Grove 138 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 2: and our team here at Bloomberg. Key of course covers 139 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:19,679 Speaker 2: the White House for us absolutely fascinating and to his point, Joe, 140 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,679 Speaker 2: the idea that everyone wants to be a hawk on China, 141 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 2: and that doesn't just go for the presidential race. You 142 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 2: could say the same about Congress as well, and protectionist policy. 143 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 2: Regardless of what administration ultimately we end up with come 144 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:32,840 Speaker 2: January twenty twenty five, it's probably going. 145 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 6: To be a common denominator. 146 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:35,680 Speaker 4: Well, that's absolutely right, and you've been seeing the solar 147 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 4: stocks among others move on. This just incredible to think that, 148 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 4: you know, reminded in our last hour this is the 149 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:46,039 Speaker 4: longest general election campaign in modern history, and we're going 150 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 4: to be having conversations like this for months further, which 151 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:51,919 Speaker 4: could be a real strain on our relationship with countries 152 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 4: like China. 153 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, and not only is it the longest election campaign 154 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 2: in general election campaign in history that makes this remarkable, 155 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 2: it's also the first time we've ever seen a president 156 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 2: and current presumptive Republican nominee in criminal court at the 157 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 2: same time that this general election campaign is underway. Because yes, 158 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 2: it's another day in court in New York in the 159 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 2: hush money trial of Donald Trump. After Stormy Daniels had 160 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 2: two days of testimony and cross examination earlier this week, 161 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 2: we understand that Michael Cohen, his former attorney and fixer, 162 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 2: will be testifying on Monday. So where exactly do things 163 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 2: stand for the prosecution and defense joining us now here 164 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 2: on balance of powers. Robert mcmurder, he is a criminal 165 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 2: and constitutional law attorney. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 166 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 2: It's always great to have you here. 167 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 6: Robert. 168 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 2: Let's just begin with Stormy Daniels. Considering the salacious nature 169 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 2: of much of her testimony, the attempts of the defense 170 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 2: to actually have a mistrial declared over it. Does she 171 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 2: end up helping or hurting the prosecution's case more from 172 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 2: what you saw. 173 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 7: Well, I think that she certainly helped the prosecution's case. 174 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 7: I don't think that the defense was very good at 175 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 7: really attagging her or her credibility. She was able to 176 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 7: hold her own ground, and I think she very well 177 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 7: kind of presented what those facts were. But I do 178 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 7: think it's important to put this in context, which is, 179 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 7: even if you do not believe anything that Stormy Daniels says, 180 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 7: it does not mean that mister Trump did not commit 181 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 7: a crime here. What seems that the defense doesn't seem 182 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 7: to dispute that he paid one hundred and thirty thousand 183 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 7: dollars to stornymy Daniels. Now, either he was doing it 184 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 7: because he had slept with her and he didn't want 185 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 7: that story to get out, or like he's trying to 186 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 7: imply that she's an extortionist and he paid it in 187 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,079 Speaker 7: order to keep that story from getting out. It doesn't 188 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 7: matter because it's still a campaign finance violation. You kind 189 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 7: of put out one hundred and thirty thousand dollars as 190 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 7: a benefit to a campaign, You got to report that, 191 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 7: and the heart of this case is actually mister David 192 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 7: Pecker's testimony and the paper trail they have showing all 193 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 7: of this and kill little scheme which was a benefit 194 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 7: to Donald Trump's presidential campaign that was unreported under campaign 195 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 7: finance laws. And whether you believe Stormy Daniels or not 196 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:16,040 Speaker 7: is irrelevant because he's not disputing that one hundred and 197 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 7: thirty thousand dollars went out the door from him. So 198 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,200 Speaker 7: it's really interesting. The prosecution is really put together a 199 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 7: very smart case. It's not just about some misdemeanor with 200 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 7: Stormy Daniels. It's about violating campaign finance laws, which are felonies. 201 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:39,199 Speaker 4: Does Donald Trump need new lawyers, Robert, I don't know 202 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 4: if you're available right now, but Wanmer Shawn the judge 203 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,680 Speaker 4: made it pretty clear that they're not doing their job 204 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 4: very well calling for mistrials instead of objecting in real 205 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 4: time to witnesses like Stormy Daniels. 206 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 3: Are they doing a disservice to Donald Trump. 207 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 7: Well, they most certainly are, But I think that's just 208 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:03,679 Speaker 7: part of a silly tech. Everybody knows you object at 209 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,559 Speaker 7: the time the testimony comes out to allow a judge 210 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 7: to take corrective action. If you want to make a 211 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 7: drama out of the mistrial theme, because this is Donald 212 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 7: Trump's political theme. It's a witch hunt. It's bad, it 213 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,440 Speaker 7: should be a mistrial, blah blah blah. Well, then you 214 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 7: hold off doing your proper objections and then object and 215 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 7: ask for a mistrial, because you know, asking for a 216 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 7: mistrial is way more sexy than just giving some objection 217 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 7: during testimony. So I just think it's just part of 218 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 7: the show, to be honest with you. The quality of 219 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 7: his lawyering, well, that's that's an open question. Donald Trump 220 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 7: is an impossible client. I mean reports that you get 221 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 7: is he's angry with his lawyers for not being aggressive enough. 222 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 3: I think that's just silly. 223 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 7: And his lawyers wouldn't be servative if they were. So 224 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 7: does he need no lawyers? 225 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 8: I don't know. 226 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:53,719 Speaker 3: I'm not sure i'd be available for him. 227 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:57,439 Speaker 6: So we got that well. 228 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 2: As we speak, Robert in our audience on Bloomberg Television 229 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 2: and could see Donald Trump is actually outside the courthouse 230 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 2: right now addressing the media, appears to be reading some 231 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 2: papers and holding them up for the cameras to see. 232 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 2: Of course, if he says anything relevant, we will bring 233 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 2: that to our television and radio audience, and once trial 234 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 2: proceedings wrap up for today Robert, come Monday, we understand 235 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 2: Michael Cohen will be on the stand. He has been pegged, 236 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:24,079 Speaker 2: or at least described as the prosecution star witness, considering 237 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 2: what we saw though in the defence's cross examination of 238 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 2: Stormy Daniels, and knowing there are questions around the credibility 239 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 2: of Michael Cohen, given, for example, he spent time in jail. 240 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 2: How difficult is it going to be for the prosecution 241 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 2: and for the defense to deal with him as a witness. 242 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 7: Well, it's interesting. Michael Cohen, I believe, is a much 243 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 7: more important witness to the actual crime than, for instance, 244 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:54,440 Speaker 7: Stormy Daniels is. But he's also pretty much an open book. 245 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 7: We know exactly what he's going to say, and we 246 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 7: know exactly what they're going to do to try to 247 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 7: attack him, and he's got a pretty good public narrative 248 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 7: about he kind of had an epiphany about his role 249 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 7: in helping Donald Trump, and he has gone ahead and 250 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 7: presented that. 251 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 9: Now. 252 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:16,839 Speaker 7: It's interesting, though, because what the prosecutor has done is 253 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 7: put a whole series of other witnesses, including Hope Hicks, 254 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 7: to lay the foundation for what Michael Cohen says, not 255 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 7: the foundation for what Stormy Daniels has testified, but for 256 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 7: what Michael Cohen says. So even if they attack him, well, 257 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 7: I'm sorry, these payments are still going out the door 258 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 7: and Michael Cohen was facilitating them and that is the 259 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:45,960 Speaker 7: crime here. So you know, can the prosecution win points, yes, 260 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 7: can the defense attack them, certainly? But I'll give an example. 261 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 7: There are cases large drug conspiracies that go to trial 262 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 7: all the time with very ugly cooperating witnesses who the 263 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 7: jury dislikes, who are not nice people, but they believe 264 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 7: them perfectly fine when they point the finger at other 265 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 7: co defendants. And there are convictions that happen that way 266 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 7: all the time. So the jury doesn't have to like 267 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 7: Michael Cohen. They might think he's a total scumbag, but 268 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 7: that doesn't mean they're not going to believe his testimony 269 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 7: about what occurred here, our. 270 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,679 Speaker 4: Last moment here, Robert, the prosecution says it will rest 271 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 4: next week. 272 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 3: Does that mean we're on time? 273 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 5: Oh? 274 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 7: Yes, In fact, I had predicted this case would go 275 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 7: quickly because you won. It's a very good prosecution too. 276 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 3: This is a good judge. 277 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,960 Speaker 7: He knows his stuff and he doesn't waste time. I'm 278 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 7: not sure. Also, how much more of the defense has 279 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 7: got to say? I mean, what are they going to 280 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 7: put on after this? So I think this trial is 281 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 7: going to be done certainly, mid Well, I would be 282 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 7: shocked if this trial isn't done before the end of 283 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 7: this month. 284 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:54,319 Speaker 3: You have it. 285 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 4: You've been consistent on that, Robert, and we appreciate that 286 00:13:57,520 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 4: he's the one who said it would be done in 287 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 4: fewer than say to eight weeks. Robert mcwurd or, criminal 288 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:05,079 Speaker 4: constitutional law attorney, Thank you as always for coming back 289 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 4: to talk to us. 290 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 3: Robert. 291 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 4: Next week, Kaylee could be something else with Michael Cohen 292 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 4: at last on the stand. 293 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, we've been long waiting for it. 294 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 2: Who knows how many days of testimony we could see 295 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 2: from him again, we saw two full days from Stormy 296 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 2: Daniels effectively. But if the prosecution thinks they're going to 297 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: be done by the end of next week and they're 298 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 2: going to have Wednesday off, potentially Friday too for Baron 299 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 2: Trump's graduation, we could be getting close to the endgame here. 300 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 3: This is true. 301 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 4: We'll stay in touch with Robert mcwurder on this story 302 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 4: for you. We're going to assemble our panel next Rick 303 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 4: Davis and Genie Shanzino with us on the Fastest Show 304 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 4: in Politics. Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg TV 305 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 4: and Radio. 306 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 307 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 1: Just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecar playing nroid 308 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 1: Oro with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 309 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 310 00:14:56,640 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 311 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 2: You're in Washington, where things might be getting a little 312 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 2: noisier in terms of jet noise, at least at Ronald 313 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 2: Reagan National Airport. No, because guess what, Joe, For all 314 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 2: of the talk around maybe forcing an amendment vote to 315 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 2: make sure that no extra flights were added right out 316 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 2: of DCA, and the best efforts of the senators of 317 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 2: neighboring states Virginia and Maryland, the Senate passed the FAA 318 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 2: reauthorization last night, and guess what. 319 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 3: All the flights are in there. 320 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 4: So so I'll keep waking up when the airplanes start 321 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 4: taking off every day, unless that becomes an earlier call. 322 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 4: Next door to National Airport, where I happened to reside. 323 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 4: I'm just wondering the hour I spent on the tarmac 324 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 4: last weekend waiting for a gate. 325 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 3: Does that get longer or shorter because of this? 326 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 2: Well, the senators from Virginia and Maryland were arguing that 327 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 2: it would make delays. 328 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 6: They sure did delayed. 329 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 4: Tim Kaine and cross safety issue, Mark Warner what they said, 330 00:15:56,240 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 4: that's correct. 331 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 6: Van Holland not happy. 332 00:15:58,600 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 3: That's right. 333 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 4: Look, we've had a series of, you know, close calls 334 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 4: on the runways here the tarmac. I don't have to 335 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 4: go through. Wheels are falling off airplanes. But we're going 336 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 4: to add more flights at National. 337 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 10: Let's do it. 338 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 6: Can't wait. 339 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 4: It's going to be fun, is our panel here? Rick 340 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 4: Davis knows about this, so does Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. 341 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 4: They actually get something done on the Senate. Although Rick 342 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 4: I have to ask you about this. He used to 343 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 4: deal with these flights with John McCain right getting out 344 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 4: of National Airport. Didn't you guys widen the perimeter the 345 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 4: radius on this thing? 346 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: Is it? 347 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 3: Should these flights be added or what? 348 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 9: Yeah? 349 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 11: John McCain was under enormous pressure when he was a 350 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 11: Commerce chairman to add flights, and he did, and one 351 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 11: of them actually went to Arizona. And prior to that 352 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 11: you had I remember this connection. And John McCain, to 353 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 11: his credit, never took the direct flight after having approved it, 354 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 11: so he didn't want people to think he was doing 355 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 11: it out of self interest and kind of the opposite 356 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 11: of the Virginia delegation. You were just mentioning who out 357 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 11: of their own self interest said no more new flight. 358 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 11: So the bottom line is it's going to get more 359 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:03,480 Speaker 11: congested at National Airport. 360 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 1: Shock and surprise. 361 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 2: I just have to say, as someone who has lived 362 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 2: in both Washington and New York, I would take Reagan 363 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 2: National Airport over LaGuardia, JFK or New York basically every. 364 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 6: Day of the week. Genie, I don't know. I don't 365 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 6: know if you agree with me on that one. 366 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 2: But it's also worth noting that the Senate has passed 367 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 2: this new flights included. Yes, but now that the Senate's 368 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 2: done this and the House just has to pass it 369 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 2: next to make sure this thing is reauthorized for the 370 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 2: next five years. Did we just see effectively all major 371 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 2: legislative work wrapped up for the one hundred and eighteenth Congress. 372 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 2: We did. 373 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:39,639 Speaker 8: First of all, Kaylee, I couldn't agree more. All of 374 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 8: those people who live around La Guardians JFK. They feel 375 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 8: your cunning pain, but you know they felt it for 376 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 8: a long time up here, you know, I think. So, 377 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 8: you know, it's getting noisier in the skies over DC, 378 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 8: but quieter in Congress, as they say, because this is 379 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,400 Speaker 8: probably the last big bill to go out. I mean, 380 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 8: will you know, some movement on the farm bill, of course, 381 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 8: and thinking about potentially the issue of the budget for 382 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,440 Speaker 8: next year at least by far as extending the deadline 383 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:15,120 Speaker 8: beyond the election. But you know, that's pretty much it. 384 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 8: And I think, you know, you do have some people 385 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,880 Speaker 8: in Congress who are sad about that prospect because there's 386 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,199 Speaker 8: other things they wanted to get done. And of course 387 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 8: it is sort of you know, the coming end of 388 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 8: one of the most historic congresses in not such a 389 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,720 Speaker 8: great way in terms of the number of bills they've 390 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 8: been able to pass. So you know, between the speaker 391 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 8: fights the lack of bills, it has been quite a 392 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 8: historic Congress, and not for great reasons. 393 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 4: Well, we saw a lot of important things happen this week, 394 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 4: including the attempt at ouster of the Speaker of the House, 395 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 4: and Mike Johnson has been talking about this sat down 396 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,199 Speaker 4: with Politico Rick to talk about the experience and what 397 00:18:56,320 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 4: he thinks might follow it, remembering that he was saved 398 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,120 Speaker 4: in part with the help of Democrats. Here's Mike Johnson 399 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 4: in his conversation with Politico. 400 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 10: Look, we have a job to do here. We have 401 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 10: to govern. I'm glad that that was done. I mean, 402 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 10: let's rip the bandad off and get it done. I 403 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 10: regret that it had to come to that. I spent 404 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 10: a lot of time talking with Thomas Massey and Marjorie 405 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 10: Taylor Green and even Paul goos are about it. It's 406 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 10: the way I operated. 407 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,880 Speaker 4: And now apparently he says he actually spoke with Marjorie 408 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 4: Taylor Green, Tom Massey Rick as soon as they got 409 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 4: off the floor following this motion to vacate vote. Does 410 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,919 Speaker 4: Mike Johnson try to rebuild the Republican conference or just 411 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 4: walk with the help of Democrats from here, you know? 412 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 11: I mean, there's so much anxiety now within the Republican 413 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 11: Caucus in this latest attempt by Marjorie Taylor Green and 414 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 11: tapas top of the leadership. It only exasperated this. These 415 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 11: people really dislike each other. I mean, there's no putting 416 00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 11: Humpty dumpty back together again in this caucus. And insomuch 417 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 11: as they're gonna make it to election day, and if 418 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 11: Republicans win the majority in the House, they're gonna have 419 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 11: to really look inside and say how we gonna manage this. 420 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 11: Whether there's one majority leader, you know, one vote that 421 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 11: gets them into majority, or if it's you know ten, 422 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 11: they still have a massive split in their caucus. And 423 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 11: so I think it's really going to be incumbent upon 424 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 11: Johnson just to keep the voter float between now an 425 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,639 Speaker 11: election day. Don't cause any more consternation, and you have 426 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 11: to and I'm sure he was telling those members who 427 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 11: tried to ask him, like, can we just focus on 428 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 11: the elections and not focus on, you know, your sort 429 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 11: of party tricks that make you get more clicks in 430 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 11: your social media and let's just get down to the 431 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 11: business of governing. So there is a frustration within the 432 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 11: Republican Party with each other, much more so than with 433 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,719 Speaker 11: the Democrats, which I think was reflected in this interview 434 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 11: where he talks about hot Gem Jeffery's in a very 435 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:02,520 Speaker 11: that's unlike how he talks about some of his own 436 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 11: Republican caucus members. 437 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty remarkable to hear the not reverent but 438 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 2: at least kind language for some of the Democrats in 439 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,959 Speaker 2: this interview, Genie. But as Rick was just talking about 440 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 2: how he basically Mike Johnson was probably to all of 441 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 2: his colleagues. 442 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 6: Look, you just need to focus on the campaign. 443 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 2: It is, after all, an election year, and right now, 444 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,200 Speaker 2: the prevailing thinking is that the House is more likely 445 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 2: to flip back to the Democrats than to stay in 446 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 2: Republican hands, just given the map, given to what you 447 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 2: were speaking to earlier, Genie, the dysfunction, the general lack 448 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 2: of legislative work that has been done over the last 449 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 2: year and a half. If they don't do much going forward, 450 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,360 Speaker 2: can they do anything to change that status quo assumption, 451 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 2: to change the mind of the opinion of this Republican 452 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 2: led House of Representatives. 453 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, I don't think they can change the 454 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 8: view people have of the dysfunction that has been the House. 455 00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 8: That's why they all want to get out of there, 456 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,800 Speaker 8: get back to their districts and do something that our 457 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 8: representatives do quite well across the board, which is serve constituents. 458 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 8: That's why they have really high reelection rates. I think 459 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,359 Speaker 8: it's going to be a close election. I have to 460 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 8: tell you, I was struck by the fact in that 461 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:17,160 Speaker 8: interview that that Mike Johnson, you know, is hearkening back 462 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 8: to you know, Tip O'Neal, Ronald Reagan. He wants a 463 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 8: time in Washington that no longer exists. And I'm worried 464 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 8: about him, quite frankly, because he didn't pay as much 465 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 8: lip service to Donald Trump as he may need to 466 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 8: to retain his position should they win. Like when they 467 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:38,560 Speaker 8: asked him about the issue of Jack Smith, he was like, yeah, no, 468 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,159 Speaker 8: nothing we can do. We're not going to go for that. So, 469 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,679 Speaker 8: you know, I think there's some real questions here. And 470 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:46,879 Speaker 8: since Rick is like to read, you know, likes to 471 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,719 Speaker 8: read truths. Now we know that Donald Trump has been 472 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 8: speaking to that and the video that was out there 473 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,440 Speaker 8: him saying he just loves Marjorie Taylor Green. So if 474 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 8: I was Mike Johnson, I would hug Donald Trump a 475 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 8: little closer if he wants to keep this job going forward, 476 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 8: whether as Speaker or Minority leader. 477 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 4: Wow, well, I'll tell you what I have hope, Rick 478 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 4: and Jeanie and Kayley, who, by the way, interviewed Senator 479 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 4: Rafael Warnock earlier this week and a very important announcement 480 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 4: this morning, and I'll bet you Rick has memories of this. 481 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 4: Rafael Warnock, Democrat from Georgia, and Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican 482 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 4: from Louisiana, of course, are going to be national co 483 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 4: chairs of National Seersucker Day. And that's of course a 484 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 4: big deal in the US Senate, the eleventh annual, Rick, 485 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 4: It'll be celebrated June thirteenth. It's things like Seersucker Day 486 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 4: and the great Senate tradition that keep the gears turning 487 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 4: in Washington? 488 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 3: Am I wrong? 489 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 11: I'm trying to choose between my pink pinstripe seersucker or 490 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,679 Speaker 11: my blue pin stripe seersucker. But you'll see me in 491 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,399 Speaker 11: it on Bloomberg. 492 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 3: That's a big promise. I have a lot to live 493 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 3: up to there. I'm not sure I could pull that 494 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 3: off like Rick. 495 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 2: So maybe when Rick is back in the five PM 496 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 2: edition of Power will have seen an outfit change. 497 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,160 Speaker 6: Perhaps, Rick, is that a commitment? 498 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:18,399 Speaker 3: Do I have to red exactly? 499 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,640 Speaker 4: You're on the record, Rick, I don't think most Americans 500 00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 4: knew there was a pink seer sucker Actually we're learning 501 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:23,480 Speaker 4: a lot as we go. 502 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 3: Here, I think about the blue and white. Are you 503 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 3: with me there? 504 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 8: Yeah? 505 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 3: Sure? 506 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 4: All right, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, thank you for 507 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 4: humoring us as always and for the great analysis our 508 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 4: signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors. 509 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 3: June thirteen, Kaylee put it on the calendar. 510 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 6: All right, there we go. 511 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 512 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,120 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo car Play, 513 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: and then Prouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 514 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 515 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 516 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:00,399 Speaker 4: We are still waiting for word on a potential cease fire, 517 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,640 Speaker 4: and now there is an expectation that the State Department 518 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 4: will soon submit a report to Congress that could be 519 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 4: highly critical about Israel's conduct in Gaza. Kayley, this is 520 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,400 Speaker 4: something that is following Joe Biden as president and as 521 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 4: a presidential candidate, and got a lot more complex this week. 522 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 4: This report could make this more difficult yet absolutely. 523 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:27,480 Speaker 2: Of course, we heard from President Biden in his CNN 524 00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 2: interview earlier this week about the pause shipment of bombs 525 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 2: that the US for now has put on hold to Israel. 526 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 2: He said, these have been used to kill civilians in Gaza, 527 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 2: and part of the reason that the US is not 528 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 2: sending them, at least at this time is out of 529 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 2: concern of how they may be used against a city 530 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 2: in which there is more than a million Palestinian civilians 531 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:50,119 Speaker 2: currently taking shelter. They're very concerned about Rafa and are 532 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 2: of course repeatedly warning the Israeli government and the Israeli 533 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 2: Army not to conduct a massive operation there. 534 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 6: But in the face of. 535 00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 2: That, the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's still rather defiant. He 536 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 2: had this to say in an interview just yesterday. 537 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,919 Speaker 9: I've said in the Holocaust memorial service that we had 538 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,080 Speaker 9: the other day, I said in the Holocaust we stood alone, 539 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 9: but we were defenseless, and today, if Israel has to 540 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 9: stand alone, we'll stand alone. 541 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 4: That was on the Doctor phil program, yes, Kayleie, which 542 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 4: is really incredible when you consider the optics there, the 543 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 4: audience they were trying to reach. 544 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 3: I know, they apparently have a long relationship, but that 545 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:31,360 Speaker 3: was not. 546 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 6: By accident, No, certainly not. 547 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,720 Speaker 2: And of course he has also said in his commentary 548 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 2: over the last day or so that Israel will fight 549 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,439 Speaker 2: tooth and nail if they need to, because they have 550 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 2: a fight, of course that they are looking to finish. 551 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,200 Speaker 2: We want to get more perspective on this now with 552 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 2: Dale Buckner. He is the CEO of Global Guardian. He 553 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 2: also is a retired Army colonel. Dale, thanks so much 554 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 2: for coming to us here on Balance of Power on 555 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. When we consider what this rop 556 00:26:55,600 --> 00:27:00,440 Speaker 2: operation ultimately may look like, what difference does the receipt 557 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 2: of these US weapons or not ultimately make. 558 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 12: Hayley, In the short term, I don't think it makes 559 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:10,920 Speaker 12: a lot of difference. 560 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:11,679 Speaker 3: And here's why. 561 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,719 Speaker 12: Sixty nine percent of all of the military support that 562 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 12: Israel has comes from the United States. They have a 563 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,359 Speaker 12: lot of munitions as of right now. So as you 564 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 12: think about going in, if the United States was to 565 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:29,160 Speaker 12: stop as of this week sending two thousand to thirty 566 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 12: two one hundred pound bombs, that's the primary thing that's 567 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 12: being pulled back. In the short term, it doesn't make 568 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 12: much difference. Now, this goes on for another six months, 569 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:42,400 Speaker 12: a year, two years, and or Israeli the Israelis then 570 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 12: turn north and as discussed previously, start to then escalate 571 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 12: towards Lebanon. Then it would have a real long term effect. 572 00:27:55,520 --> 00:28:00,080 Speaker 4: We've been hearing about shelling in Rafa, We've been hearing 573 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:04,320 Speaker 4: about the IDF controlling the gates on the Egyptian border 574 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 4: in Rafa, and other operations that have been happening inside 575 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 4: the city. Is the invasion of Rafa already underway. 576 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,640 Speaker 12: So it is underway, it's very limited. If you look 577 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 12: at the map in the southeast corner down near the 578 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 12: Rafa gate. So far the IDF has gone into in 579 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,919 Speaker 12: a very limited capacity. Now, as discussed and just recently 580 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,680 Speaker 12: announced today, the War Cabinet has approved a larger scale operation. 581 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:35,880 Speaker 12: That being said, don't expect a massive IDF invasion overnight 582 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 12: or in the next few days. You have to understand 583 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 12: there's about four to six battalions of MOSS left and 584 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 12: more importantly, and this is really the key tactically, the 585 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 12: remaining hostages that we believe are alive and those four 586 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 12: to six battalions are all in a very small area. 587 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 12: So as you think about this, this is where precision 588 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 12: will matter, and this is where you can expect you're 589 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 12: trying to thread the needle where you're trying to take 590 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 12: out and a trit the Hamas fighters that are left. 591 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,720 Speaker 12: At the same time, the real risk of dropping large 592 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 12: munitions is you could start killing Israeli hostages. This is 593 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 12: going to be very difficult. 594 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 2: Well, and even if you are trying to be precise, Dale, 595 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,800 Speaker 2: what we consistently hear about Hamas is that they use 596 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 2: women and children as literal human shields that they specifically hide. 597 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 2: Have their operations based in areas in which there is 598 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 2: a high likelihood of collateral damage? 599 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 6: Is there? 600 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,440 Speaker 2: I guess my real question is is there any way 601 00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 2: that Israel can do this, can take out the remaining 602 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,320 Speaker 2: battalions without that death toll going higher than the north 603 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 2: of thirty thousand it already is. 604 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 12: Yeah, I think that you can. On the outskirts and 605 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 12: the perimeter of this, you can continue to attret Hamas, 606 00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,600 Speaker 12: especially if they have good intelligence. Now where it gets 607 00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 12: really messy, and make no mistake, war is messy. As 608 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,000 Speaker 12: precise as it appears to be on video games, that's 609 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 12: not the real world. We've already experienced this now since 610 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:06,800 Speaker 12: October seventh. Trying to separate civilians and hostages is almost 611 00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 12: an impossible task. So to your point, Kayley, I think 612 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 12: that on the perimeter you can continue to put pressure 613 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:19,120 Speaker 12: ultimately hoping as you think about the negotiations, we're probably 614 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 12: down to two or three key terms as we look 615 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 12: forward to trying to find a ceasefire. This is pressure 616 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 12: on the outskirts. As I talked to Joe last time, 617 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,440 Speaker 12: Nott Yahoo has been saying for several months now he's 618 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 12: going into to Rafa and he has it not at 619 00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 12: scale now, it's limited. Now I think you see attacks 620 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:41,680 Speaker 12: in the periphered. He continue a trit put pressure diplomatically 621 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 12: and from a military standpoint, and ultimately try and find 622 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 12: a path to a negotiation while applying limited tactical pressure. 623 00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,560 Speaker 4: Kale, We've been focused on the South for the balance 624 00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 4: of this conversation. Are you hearing anything new about Israel 625 00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:58,880 Speaker 4: moving to the north and if it does, in fact 626 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 4: decides to make a move on Hesballah, will it be 627 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,959 Speaker 4: this type of approach, starting small before going to scale. 628 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 1: Yeah. 629 00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:10,040 Speaker 12: So if you're if you're watching closely, there's been an 630 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 12: escalation in the north. Three IDF soldiers have now been 631 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,840 Speaker 12: killed in the last twenty four hours. There is increases 632 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 12: in attacks both sides. So yes, as we've talked Joe, 633 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:23,480 Speaker 12: there's a movement afoot it's limited and to your point, 634 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 12: I do think this starts out in a limited capacity 635 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 12: as they figure out. Again, you have different agendas being 636 00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,239 Speaker 12: played out. You have a political agenda, you have a 637 00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 12: man Tearian agenda, a diplomatic agenda. All these things are 638 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 12: not aligned right now and it's going to be very 639 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 12: interesting to see what happens next. No one knows when 640 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 12: and how, but there is ben and Essa has been 641 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 12: an escalation on that Lebanese border, and depending on how 642 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,760 Speaker 12: this pressure in the South and the negotiations go, that 643 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,240 Speaker 12: will be an indicator what might be next steps in 644 00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:57,200 Speaker 12: the North with Lebanon. 645 00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,280 Speaker 4: Stay tuned to this space for more on that. Dale Buckner, 646 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 4: it's great to see you, Dale, Thanks for coming back 647 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 4: to talk just as the CEO of Global Guarding and 648 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,240 Speaker 4: a retired Army colonel to disaperies. 649 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 3: In the field. 650 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:12,640 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 651 00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 652 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,280 Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 653 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:22,040 Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at 654 00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:23,320 Speaker 4: Bloomberg dot com.