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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight,
Speaker 1: presented by FanDuel Here at the Volume. I am Jason
Speaker 1: Timp Happy Tuesday, everybody. I hope you guys this week
Speaker 1: is off to a good start. We have an absolutely
Speaker 1: jam packed show tonight. We're not going to talk about
Speaker 1: that specific Lakers games, simply because it does not deserve
Speaker 1: to be discussed in any capacity. However, we are going
Speaker 1: to talk about the Lakers and their chances in the
Speaker 1: playing tournament, whether or not they're gonna get there, what
Speaker 1: they could do when they get there. We're also going
Speaker 1: to break down that incredible game between the Bucks and
Speaker 1: the sixers and Janice's massive second half as he led
Speaker 1: them to a comeback win. We're gonna dive a little
Speaker 1: bit into the m v P race, and then at
Speaker 1: the end of the show, I'm gonna give you guys
Speaker 1: my top five contenders in each conference, So not power rankings,
Speaker 1: not ranking the teams. I'm just going to talk about
Speaker 1: which teams I had I think have the best chance
Speaker 1: to win and in championship. And then we've got some
Speaker 1: special stuff for you guys planned in there as well.
Speaker 1: But let's start with the Lakers. So I went on
Speaker 1: with the guys from Silver Screen and Roll today and
Speaker 1: we were talking a little bit about the realities of
Speaker 1: this next couple of weeks for the Lakers. So just
Speaker 1: to give you guys an update on what the situation is,
Speaker 1: Mark uh Chris Haynes reported that Lebron and a d
Speaker 1: are probably both going to sit out on Thursday in Utah,
Speaker 1: but that they will probably both play on Friday at
Speaker 1: home against the Pelicans. So that essentially means that they're
Speaker 1: punting that game on Thursday. If anything we learned about
Speaker 1: today's game repeats in Utah, which it almost certainly will.
Speaker 1: Utah has already lost to the Lakers twice, so you
Speaker 1: know they're not gonna sleep in that particular game. So
Speaker 1: chances are the Spurs and the Lakers will be tied
Speaker 1: for that ten seed at thirty one. And problem is,
Speaker 1: the Spurs actually have the tiebreaker because they have the
Speaker 1: better conference record comfortably like that's not changed over the
Speaker 1: course of the next couple of weeks. So the Lakers
Speaker 1: starting Friday with Lebron and Anthony Davis in the lineup,
Speaker 1: should in theory, have a nice little stretch run there
Speaker 1: where all they have to do is be better than
Speaker 1: the Spurs. So that was that's where the schedule gets
Speaker 1: a little bit complicated. So as we know, in remaining
Speaker 1: strength of schedule coming into tonight, the Lakers were second
Speaker 1: and remaining scheduled difficulty, meaning they have the second toughest
Speaker 1: remaining schedule, but the Spurs have the fifth toughest remaining schedule.
Speaker 1: I was looking at each of the games individually. Both
Speaker 1: teams have a couple of games that are winnable, but
Speaker 1: for the most part, they're gonna be underdogs in almost
Speaker 1: every game they play, except for the fact that the
Speaker 1: Lakers will have Lebron James and Anthony Davis. And this
Speaker 1: is where it gets tricky, because I was talking with
Speaker 1: the guys from Silver Screening Roll today. Think of it
Speaker 1: like this, the Lakers are a terrible basketball team. We
Speaker 1: can all agree on that they're on both ends of
Speaker 1: the floor. They're bad. They're bad down the roster with
Speaker 1: their talent, They're poorly coached in relation to uh the
Speaker 1: types of players they have on the roster. And we
Speaker 1: don't even have to get into front office and management.
Speaker 1: They're not a good basketball team. However, this year has
Speaker 1: been a travesty of injury luck. Lebron and Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: can't seem to be on the floor together for more
Speaker 1: than a handful of games at at a time. This season,
Speaker 1: the two of them have only appeared in twenty two
Speaker 1: games total, extually twenty one games, and in those games
Speaker 1: they're only eleven in tent because of continuity and a
Speaker 1: lot of other issues. But while we can all agree
Speaker 1: that the Lakers win healthy with Lebron and Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: are not a contender, meaning like a top tier contender,
Speaker 1: they're not Phoenix. Obviously, they're probably not a second tier
Speaker 1: contender right like they're not on the same level as
Speaker 1: Boston or a Golden State or a Brooklyn. But with
Speaker 1: Lebron and Anthony Davis, they probably are comfortably in that
Speaker 1: third tier, that puncher's chance tier, with those guys on
Speaker 1: the floor. Now that DeAndre Jordan is out or off
Speaker 1: the roster entirely, now that they're no longer playing Kemp
Speaker 1: He's more and Avery Bradley and Trevor Reason all their
Speaker 1: worst players, they're probably comfortably in that third tier when
Speaker 1: they are healthy. It's the Anthony Davis injury in conjunction
Speaker 1: with their total lack of athleticism that has been such
Speaker 1: a problem for them in this past month. But this
Speaker 1: last stretch of games here, if Lebron and a D
Speaker 1: are available, if they have their mobility, which I expect
Speaker 1: them to have, I think Lebron's ankle is going to
Speaker 1: be okay. And as we saw with Anthony Davis's knee
Speaker 1: when he came back, he was very mobile. So if
Speaker 1: Lebron and a D actually put their foot on the
Speaker 1: gas and really go for it down the stretch, they
Speaker 1: should absolutely be ahead of San Antonio and very possibly
Speaker 1: could finish ahead of the Pelicans if they catch some
Speaker 1: luck along the way and win that game. On Friday
Speaker 1: against the Pelicans. You know, one of the other things
Speaker 1: we were talking about today, you know, there's a it's
Speaker 1: very important for the Lakers to try down the stretch
Speaker 1: here and to make an impressive showing, even if they lose,
Speaker 1: because looking forward to this coming summer, obviously the Lakers
Speaker 1: need to clean house, right. They probably have a new coach,
Speaker 1: they'll probably have a bunch of different role players, they'll
Speaker 1: probably have a very different dynamic surrounding the team. But
Speaker 1: in order to do so, the importance for the Lakers
Speaker 1: to have a strong showing has to do with this
Speaker 1: coming off season and the fact that you have to
Speaker 1: somehow convince players to come in at a discount. Just
Speaker 1: like what happened the last couple of years. The Lakers
Speaker 1: are primarily going to be relying on guys like Kendrick
Speaker 1: Nunn or Montrez Harrold, So guys that probably could get
Speaker 1: ten fifteen million on the open market that decided to
Speaker 1: take a discount to come to the Lakers, or guys
Speaker 1: that could get that five to ten million who end
Speaker 1: up taking a veteran minimum contract. We've seen a bunch
Speaker 1: of examples of that over the course of the last
Speaker 1: couple of years. However, the players can see injury luck,
Speaker 1: they can see that kind of thing. They can read
Speaker 1: through that. What they can't read through is poor effort.
Speaker 1: If they see a toxic situation, if they see a
Speaker 1: team that has quit, if they see a dumpster fire,
Speaker 1: it becomes very difficult to convince a quality role player
Speaker 1: to take a discount to come play for the Lakers.
Speaker 1: Think about it like this. You are let's let's say you're,
Speaker 1: you know, Jeff Green this summer or whatever, somebody that
Speaker 1: ilk of player quality wing in that you know, uh,
Speaker 1: mid level exception to veteran minimum type of market. If
Speaker 1: you could choose between going to the Clippers, who have
Speaker 1: looked like a fantastic team this year despite of of
Speaker 1: injury luck and with Kauai and Paul George coming back
Speaker 1: and with a very clearly sound environment, with a good
Speaker 1: coach that fits their players, in a high quality front office,
Speaker 1: or Brooklyn, who is kind of in a similar boat.
Speaker 1: If you could choose between those two teams are going
Speaker 1: to play with the Lakers with all of the things
Speaker 1: that have gone poorly for them this season, what would
Speaker 1: you choose? That's why it's so important. If you can
Speaker 1: somehow down on the stretch, have a have a couple
Speaker 1: of quality wins that remind everybody of what Lebron and
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis are like when they're together. If you could
Speaker 1: go into the playing game and beat the Pelicans and
Speaker 1: beat the Clippers and get into that eight seed, that
Speaker 1: that adds legitimacy to what you're trying to build. If
Speaker 1: you go into the first round playoff series against the
Speaker 1: Phoenix Suns and you go down swinging, even if you
Speaker 1: don't win, if you go down swinging, then you restore
Speaker 1: some integrity around the franchise, which allows you to have
Speaker 1: that phone conversation with this theoretical Jeff Green and be like,
Speaker 1: hey man, we had really bad luck this year. We
Speaker 1: couldn't get the we couldn't get the right amount of
Speaker 1: um of of continuity. We couldn't get the right right
Speaker 1: amount of of of consistent you know, uh, stability in
Speaker 1: order to have an environment that could cultivate good basketball.
Speaker 1: And maybe you can convince those guys again. But that's
Speaker 1: why it's so important to have a functional and and
Speaker 1: coherent and competent finish to this season. And one last
Speaker 1: note on that front before we move on what happened
Speaker 1: last year in the playoffs. We had two teams make
Speaker 1: it to the conference finals that nobody in a million
Speaker 1: years would have thought would have made it to the
Speaker 1: conference finals. Nobody thought Atlanta was gonna beat Philly. Nobody
Speaker 1: thought Atlanta would go into Milwaukee and still steal that
Speaker 1: uh that game, wanted that series. No one thought the
Speaker 1: Clippers were going to eliminate the Utah Jazz and take
Speaker 1: the Phoenix Suns to six games in the conference finals.
Speaker 1: Those are incredibly flawed teams right relative to their peers
Speaker 1: at the top of the league. But some things broke
Speaker 1: right for them. A couple injuries here, couple of good
Speaker 1: injury luck for you. There some matchups that work in
Speaker 1: your favor. Some role players get hot. You know, we
Speaker 1: had a Nicholas Betune kind of sighting in that early
Speaker 1: playoff run for the Clippers. Obviously, Trey Young played a
Speaker 1: lot better than we expected in that playoff runt. And
Speaker 1: anything can happen if some things break your way and
Speaker 1: suddenly you're in the conference finals. Do I think the
Speaker 1: Lakers are a top tier contender? No? What do I
Speaker 1: expect to happen? I expect them to either lose in
Speaker 1: the plan or to lose in the first round. But
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that they can't get there. They have
Speaker 1: a puncher's chance when they're healthy. That's why you have
Speaker 1: to get there. Anything can happen. Even the two teams
Speaker 1: that made it to the finals, the Bucks and the Sons,
Speaker 1: were not the favorites in their conference. Nobody took Phoenix seriously.
Speaker 1: They A lot of people picked the Lakers to win
Speaker 1: that series, including myself. Nobody thought the Bucks were gonna win.
Speaker 1: The Bucks were literally the laughing stock of the league
Speaker 1: after they folded against Miami and had kind of a
Speaker 1: mediocre regular season that year. So my point is is
Speaker 1: everything is in flux in the NBA because of the
Speaker 1: day to day up and downs of what happens with
Speaker 1: injuries and what happens with matchups. So it's very important
Speaker 1: to always push forward, not just for the integrity of
Speaker 1: your franchise, not just for your credibility when you're communicating
Speaker 1: with free agents in the summer, but also because you
Speaker 1: don't know what's gonna happen, and folding is never a
Speaker 1: good idea as a competitor or for the integrity of
Speaker 1: the team and the franchise. For those of you who
Speaker 1: are just joining us. This is Hoops Tonight, presented by
Speaker 1: Fandel Here at the volume. We are going to bring
Speaker 1: on my guy Carson. Carson helps with the show. He
Speaker 1: also does NBA draft stuff, but that's a story for
Speaker 1: another day. What's up, Carson? How you doing, my guy?
Speaker 1: I'm great man, happy to be here. All right, what
Speaker 1: do you got? So? We are going to play a
Speaker 1: game called Laker or Faker. It's a pretty simple format.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna list off a few names to you. You're
Speaker 1: gonna tell me if this guy next year is going
Speaker 1: to be a Laker still on the team. If you
Speaker 1: think he is not, you're going to say faker. We're
Speaker 1: gonna start with Russell Westbrook Laker Faker. Interesting, Okay, I
Speaker 1: like this a going faker. Absolutely have to get off
Speaker 1: of him for if if nothing else, because even in
Speaker 1: this recent stretch he's actually played okay like and I
Speaker 1: mean that term is being used loosely. He's played okay
Speaker 1: of late and it's still is like a full blown
Speaker 1: civil war with Laker fans, and within the locker room
Speaker 1: there's this weird vibe. You know, we've heard about the
Speaker 1: coaching staff and what his issues are with Frank Vogel.
Speaker 1: We've heard from Lebron directly or not directly, but we've
Speaker 1: heard from Lebron through the grape vine that he's come too.
Speaker 1: I would be absolutely stunned if he's not here next year.
Speaker 1: There's a chance he doesn't get traded. But if he
Speaker 1: doesn't get traded, I'd expect him to go with an
Speaker 1: even more nuclear option, which is like a wave in
Speaker 1: stretch where they basically just split his salary over the
Speaker 1: next three seasons to free up some immediate cap space.
Speaker 1: But I would be absolutely shocked if Russ is a
Speaker 1: Laker next year. I'm going Faker, all right. Moving on
Speaker 1: Malik Monk, Laker or Faker, I'm gonna go with Laker.
Speaker 1: He has had some really good stretches this year, but
Speaker 1: I think that people, you know, he's gonna fall into
Speaker 1: that mid level exception type market in my opinion, and
Speaker 1: in that market, most teams that are using that contract
Speaker 1: are going to attempt to find somebody who's a more
Speaker 1: dependable role player. Malik Monk has been a pretty bad
Speaker 1: defensive player this year. And while he's shown scoring pop
Speaker 1: and it is off the bench and how he's had
Speaker 1: a lot of really good moments. I really really like
Speaker 1: Leik's game, so I don't want to make it sound
Speaker 1: like that. However, I have a feeling that he's going
Speaker 1: to end up being a player that's in the mid
Speaker 1: level exception type of territory, and I think the Lakers
Speaker 1: are going to be able to afford him, so I
Speaker 1: would be I would be surprised if he's not here
Speaker 1: next year. I'm going Laker if he were to demand
Speaker 1: more than that, like if he were getting into like
Speaker 1: the twelve million range, do you think then that's no
Speaker 1: longer on the table. Well, so if they waved and
Speaker 1: stretched Russ, then I think they could theoretically use the
Speaker 1: non taxpayer mid level exception, which gets close to that number.
Speaker 1: I just think that would be poor management. If you
Speaker 1: look at the Lakers this year, their biggest problem has
Speaker 1: been lack of competent size athleticism. So if you can
Speaker 1: get Malik for basically what you're paying Kendrick Nunn, that's
Speaker 1: one thing. I and and he's there's a bunch of
Speaker 1: stuff there too, where the Lakers have been saying all
Speaker 1: the right things, acting like they really like having him around.
Speaker 1: I just think the more likely scenario if it pushes
Speaker 1: up to that number, is the Lakers prioritize a wing
Speaker 1: if they're gonna pay that much. All right, we've got
Speaker 1: a big one here. Frank Vogel Laker or Faker. Oh.
Speaker 1: I was thinking about this one the other day. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go Faker. But it's close to a coin flip.
Speaker 1: The reason why is because what do we know about
Speaker 1: Genie Buss. We know she doesn't like to spend money.
Speaker 1: We also have reports that Frank Vogel is under contract
Speaker 1: next year. Now, the case for bringing Frank Vogel back
Speaker 1: would be Frank is actually a good coach. He's just
Speaker 1: a defensive minded coach, and so when you put him
Speaker 1: with an offensive oriented roster, you kind of get the
Speaker 1: worst of both worlds because you lose the defensive element
Speaker 1: that Frank brings to the table and he's not competent
Speaker 1: enough with xs and os to maximum eyes that uh
Speaker 1: that roster offensively. So if they did bring Frank back,
Speaker 1: they would have to reorient the roster to his strengths,
Speaker 1: prioritize all the signings and trades this summer around bringing
Speaker 1: incompetent defenders and building around that model. Because Frank was
Speaker 1: the perfect coach for that model. That said, I think
Speaker 1: a slightly better than coin flip chance that he's gone,
Speaker 1: simply because my guess is that he's gonna be labeled
Speaker 1: as a scapegoat in a lot of ways for this season,
Speaker 1: kind of like russ Is, Who would be the guy
Speaker 1: to you that you would look at on the market
Speaker 1: for the Lakers potentially as his replacement? This is a
Speaker 1: really interesting question. I you know what we know about
Speaker 1: Genie again, she likes to stay in house, So I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be shocked if they looked for one of the
Speaker 1: assistants on the staff, someone like a Phil Handy. Um.
Speaker 1: I like Phil Handy as an offensive coach. He's famous
Speaker 1: kind of as a skill development guy in the league,
Speaker 1: and allegedly he's been doing a lot of the xs
Speaker 1: and os for the team offensively in the second half
Speaker 1: of the season, but those xs and knows still haven't
Speaker 1: looked great. Um. I would go for somebody that's proven
Speaker 1: as an offensive coach and trust the fact that you
Speaker 1: can get Lebron in a D to lock in and
Speaker 1: get enough stops. So in that case, I'd be targeting
Speaker 1: someone like Mike D'Antoni. Okay, all right, Carmelo, Anthony Laker
Speaker 1: or Faker. I'm gonna go with Laker. I don't I
Speaker 1: I don't think he should be in the rotation anymore.
Speaker 1: There's this really interesting phenomenon that happened with Carmelo. It's
Speaker 1: the textbook case of of of people kind of forming
Speaker 1: an opinion about someone and they're not changing. He shot
Speaker 1: incredibly well for the first like third of the season,
Speaker 1: like off the charts well. But the truth of the
Speaker 1: matter is is he hasn't shot particularly well in the
Speaker 1: last half of the season or so, and as a result,
Speaker 1: with all of his defensive shortcomings, he's actually been somewhat
Speaker 1: of a negative player for the Lakers as of late.
Speaker 1: He's my candidate for a guy who I would drop
Speaker 1: out of the rotation in favor of leaving someone like
Speaker 1: when you gave bal In the in the lineup. I
Speaker 1: think he's likely to come back just because he's already
Speaker 1: in l a, he's friends with Lebron. I just think
Speaker 1: if he's back, he needs to come back and more
Speaker 1: of like a mentorship, end of the bench type of role.
Speaker 1: All Right, Austin Reeves Laker or Faker. Laker absolutely coming back.
Speaker 1: They got him under team control next year anyway, So
Speaker 1: the only way he begane is if he got lumped
Speaker 1: in with the trade. And I think the Lakers are
Speaker 1: super high on him. I doubt they throw him in,
Speaker 1: and I don't think his opinion is high enough in
Speaker 1: the rest of the league to where teams would be like, hey,
Speaker 1: we're not doing the deal unless you're throw in Austin.
Speaker 1: So I'm going Laker, all right, probably the biggest one
Speaker 1: we've got here, Anthony Davis Laker or Faker. Oh good one,
Speaker 1: I'm going Laker. I saw this report from Brian went
Speaker 1: Horse earlier today. Now the way I look at it,
Speaker 1: I understand the idea behind wanting to trade him really
Speaker 1: bad since the bubble, even when he's been healthy and
Speaker 1: for the most part he hasn't been able to stay
Speaker 1: on the floor. So from that standpoint, like I get
Speaker 1: the thought process behind, maybe you might be able to
Speaker 1: get something for him. But here's the issue. First of all,
Speaker 1: every time you do a superstar trade, you get pennies
Speaker 1: in return. You never get very rarely do you get
Speaker 1: that Ben Simmons for James Harden type of return, And
Speaker 1: chances are if the Nets knew that Ben Simmons wasn't
Speaker 1: gonna be able to play because a herniated disks, they
Speaker 1: probably wouldn't have made the deal to begin with. So
Speaker 1: the way I look at it, you're trading Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: for a lesser player and some spare parts. So I
Speaker 1: get it from the standpoint of the lack of depth
Speaker 1: that the Lakers have. If you could get a lower
Speaker 1: level star who's got durability and some quality role players,
Speaker 1: that's great. My thing is what NBA team out there
Speaker 1: is gonna give away a bunch of quality role players
Speaker 1: in a solid star when you know that that Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis's value is probably the lowest it's been in his career. So, like,
Speaker 1: I just think, I think selling low on Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: would be a bad decision. He's had really bad injury luck.
Speaker 1: I think you're better off keeping Anthony Davis in the
Speaker 1: fold for as long as possible and trying to build
Speaker 1: around on the marsh the Margins. All right, guys, that's
Speaker 1: it for Carson. We appreciate. We're gonna see him a
Speaker 1: little bit later in the show. So we're gonna get
Speaker 1: to this uh incredible Bucks Sixers game from tonight. Um
Speaker 1: Sixers came out playing really really well. Actually, the Bucks
Speaker 1: took a little bit of an early lead, but they
Speaker 1: stayed with it and the and the Sixers weathered along.
Speaker 1: I was really impressed with the way James Harden played
Speaker 1: early in the game. As I've always said, James Harden,
Speaker 1: his entire game is predicated on getting into the paint,
Speaker 1: and I think he finished with five made field goals
Speaker 1: in the paint, which is a huge part of what
Speaker 1: opens everything else up for him. When he is getting
Speaker 1: to the paint, that's what allows him to have that
Speaker 1: defender on their heels a little bit, which sets up
Speaker 1: his step back. When he goes to his step back
Speaker 1: and the defenders on his heels and he gets great
Speaker 1: separation and he can go straight up and down. He's
Speaker 1: a good shooter on the step back. When he's kind
Speaker 1: of using the step back as his bread and butter,
Speaker 1: and he's not really putting any pressure on the defense,
Speaker 1: and the defenders playing up into him, he didn't get
Speaker 1: as much separation. That's when he starts missing him and
Speaker 1: trying to draw fouls instead. I I thought it was
Speaker 1: really interesting that James Harden's best game as a Sixer
Speaker 1: came hand in hand with him finally getting into the basket.
Speaker 1: It also opened up things with his playmaking and there
Speaker 1: in the second half he was able to draw a
Speaker 1: lot of fouls. But as you saw over the course,
Speaker 1: it was just after wave of Bucks there was a stretch.
Speaker 1: It's all the Philadelphia TV properly with the stat here.
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that that Yannas scored tea conceptive point
Speaker 1: end to start forward and honest the game Chris Bilton
Speaker 1: came in, it was just playing awesome. And then as
Speaker 1: soon as Chris Middleton cooled here came Drew Holiday and
Speaker 1: Drew Holiday, it was awesome. It's just one thing after another,
Speaker 1: and so much of it had to do and Drew Off.
Speaker 1: They actually playing to their potential. How though that they
Speaker 1: can be. They were very instant for the course of
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. In particular, is that playoff
Speaker 1: early stretches, that plot friend in the Bucks for Shortland,
Speaker 1: it was at Holiday games that was those problems through
Speaker 1: all day. I don't know the Olympics or it was.
Speaker 1: Deal is even more comment than he has ever ever been.
Speaker 1: He fantastic. That changes the entire dynamic of that team.
Speaker 1: Now you know Janice obviously was amazing tonight. Obviously, I
Speaker 1: think he's in contention for being considered the best player
Speaker 1: in the league. What I thought, Janice is this conversation
Speaker 1: that centers around his jump shot, because everyone every time
Speaker 1: Janice hits a turnaround, fade away, or HiT's the three
Speaker 1: point shot in transition, I always see the clip on
Speaker 1: the Twitter feed and everyone's talking. It's like, oh my gosh,
Speaker 1: if he starts hitting this, it's over for the rest
Speaker 1: of the league. And I've always disagreed to a certain
Speaker 1: extent because when I'm looking at player development of stars,
Speaker 1: I look at it from two different things. How do
Speaker 1: you handle individual coverage and how do you handle double
Speaker 1: teams or teams really packing the paint on you. In
Speaker 1: individual coverage, Janice doesn't need a three point shot. When
Speaker 1: he gets the ball on the block, he can dominate
Speaker 1: any defender in the league, and individual coverage to either
Speaker 1: get to the basket. Even if you can't write away,
Speaker 1: he'll wear on them over the course of the game,
Speaker 1: he'll draw fouls. So I like the idea of having
Speaker 1: a jump shot as like an audible to save your legs.
Speaker 1: So you've bullied your way to the basket. To three
Speaker 1: times in a row and you're tired, but you have
Speaker 1: the same matchup and you're still in single coverage. It's
Speaker 1: nice to have a longer jump hook from further away
Speaker 1: from the basket, or a turnaround jump shot or a
Speaker 1: face up game as something you can do to save
Speaker 1: your legs, but it's not as important in the chess
Speaker 1: match of the game. The chess match of the game
Speaker 1: is gonna involve you're punishing single coverage until they send
Speaker 1: multiple defenders at you. This is why I've always said
Speaker 1: the most important part of Janice's development is always going
Speaker 1: to be his passing. And he's kind of plateauing a
Speaker 1: little bit in that to partment, which happens to a
Speaker 1: lot of players because playmaking is so much of a
Speaker 1: natural gift. It's like the yokich Is and the Lebrons
Speaker 1: and the uh the Luca don Riches and the Chris
Speaker 1: Paul's of the league. Those are usually like your your
Speaker 1: mount rushmore of playmakers in the league right now, those
Speaker 1: guys are born with it to a certain extent. And
Speaker 1: there's a little bit of a plateau for Janice. But
Speaker 1: the biggest thing that will be what the biggest indicator
Speaker 1: of whether or not Jannie can be that solo, unbeatable
Speaker 1: best player in the league will be his ability to
Speaker 1: make teams pay for sending help to him, far more
Speaker 1: than anything having to do with his jump shot. And
Speaker 1: so what I watched with Joannice on any given night
Speaker 1: is going to be his playmaking. How he does, how
Speaker 1: he does when when things are low, when when the
Speaker 1: defense has you kind of like we were talking about
Speaker 1: with the Lakers and the Pelicans the other day in
Speaker 1: that video that I released, talking about digging into the
Speaker 1: pain and shutting off driving lanes when you have and
Speaker 1: when the wall is built and Joannice can't plow over everybody,
Speaker 1: can he consistently spray out two shooters or two cutters
Speaker 1: to keep the defense loose so they can't load up
Speaker 1: on him. That's always going to be the biggest element
Speaker 1: of Janice's game to watch moving forward. But with the Bucks,
Speaker 1: you know, we're gonna get into this a little bit
Speaker 1: later when we talk about the East contenders. The uh,
Speaker 1: the Buck's defense has just not been good enough this
Speaker 1: year at all. In any stretch of the season. I
Speaker 1: keep like pulling little shorter, you know, chunks of the
Speaker 1: season to try to see if there was some stretch
Speaker 1: of time or maybe they flip the switch. Because when
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the championship team compared to this team,
Speaker 1: what I'm looking for is flashes because it's unrealistic for
Speaker 1: us to expect the Bucks to bring that same level
Speaker 1: of intensity that they did before they had the ring.
Speaker 1: That's just goes against human nature. There's no way in
Speaker 1: hell that the Bucks want this title as bad as
Speaker 1: the Sun's do, because the Suns haven't been able to
Speaker 1: sleep probably for the last calendar year, as they've been
Speaker 1: wishing themselves mentally for all the mistakes they made along
Speaker 1: the way that had them coming up short. The Bucks
Speaker 1: are never going to have that type of mental motivation,
Speaker 1: even as great as Janice is. So what I look
Speaker 1: forward teams like this, and that's not a problem you
Speaker 1: need to the Bucks. That's every defending champion in NBA history.
Speaker 1: So what I look for is the little short stretches.
Speaker 1: Did they have like a fifteen game stretch where they
Speaker 1: looked like the old Bucks and they just have it.
Speaker 1: In March, once again, the Bucks had the sixteenth defense,
Speaker 1: sixteenth ranked defense in the league, So once again coming
Speaker 1: into tonight, that is so once again, even in this
Speaker 1: stretch when you'd expect them to be, you know, tuning
Speaker 1: up and stepping up and picking up their intensity, they're
Speaker 1: still not good enough on the defensive end of the floor.
Speaker 1: And I know, I know Bucks fans will tell you, oh,
Speaker 1: it's because Bruke Lopez was out, But my thing is
Speaker 1: like they have enough talent on that roster to be
Speaker 1: a coherent and competent defense even without brook Lopez. That's
Speaker 1: what I've been being told about Janice Antenna Coop over
Speaker 1: the last couple of years. Perennial Defensive Player of the
Speaker 1: Year condidate can did it one of the best off
Speaker 1: ball defensive players in the league. You know, I I
Speaker 1: don't really buy that excuse, not to mention drop coverages
Speaker 1: with brook Lopez are kind of a regular season fat anyway,
Speaker 1: and they don't work as well in the postseason regardless.
Speaker 1: So I'm still worried about the Bucks in general. The
Speaker 1: one thing that makes me feel like maybe they still
Speaker 1: have that punch is their crunch time defense in clutch situations.
Speaker 1: Coming into tonight, the Bucks have the sixth best defense
Speaker 1: in the league. So if there's one little kernel of
Speaker 1: of hope that you can hold too if you're a
Speaker 1: Bucks fan in terms of them still having that defensive
Speaker 1: ceiling that they need to win a championship. It's what
Speaker 1: they do in crunch time. And once again you saw tonight, Uh,
Speaker 1: Janice just a monster defensive play, run under the basket,
Speaker 1: timing the Joe LM bead rebound and that quick putback
Speaker 1: to swatt it off of the glass. You know, there's
Speaker 1: a couple of There's two notes that I wanted to
Speaker 1: uh talk about from this specific game as it pertains
Speaker 1: to a potential playoff matchup between these two teams. Now
Speaker 1: will they face each other in the play us? Who knows?
Speaker 1: Like we talked about later, I expect one of these
Speaker 1: top four seeds to get knocked out by the nets
Speaker 1: out of the plane, uh, coming out of the plan.
Speaker 1: And these top four seeds are so influx that you
Speaker 1: really don't know who's gonna play who. But say the
Speaker 1: Bucks face the Sixers there too, a specific matchup things
Speaker 1: that I think are super interesting. First of all, Janice
Speaker 1: off ball defense. So to start the game that Janice
Speaker 1: on Mattiste tybel matist Tyble is a okay three point shooter,
Speaker 1: not a good three point shooter. So as a help defender,
Speaker 1: Janice was able to roam a lot more. But when
Speaker 1: Tibo went to the bench, they bring in Georgia Kneeing.
Speaker 1: Georgia Kneeing is a much much better three point shooter.
Speaker 1: He's been right around all season long, and he's tall,
Speaker 1: so he's got a high release point, a quick release,
Speaker 1: and he has a shooter's mentality. Georgia Kneeing, if he
Speaker 1: catches with an inch of space, he's firing. He hit
Speaker 1: two massive threes at the end of this game. It's
Speaker 1: something he's been doing all season long. When Janice was
Speaker 1: on Georgias Kneeing, he wasn't able to leak into the
Speaker 1: pain as much. He wasn't able to roam as much.
Speaker 1: And these are those chess match things that are so
Speaker 1: interesting in a playoff series. If you're the Sixers, how
Speaker 1: good is Matisse Thyble gonna be in your defense? Is
Speaker 1: it worth it having him on the floor when you
Speaker 1: know that when matissee Thibles on the floor, Janice is
Speaker 1: gonna hug up to him and be roaming around the
Speaker 1: floor helping. Or if you go with George's kneeing, you're
Speaker 1: gonna have a much better time on offense, You're gonna
Speaker 1: give James Harden and Joel and Being much more space
Speaker 1: to operate because Janice is gonna have to stay glued
Speaker 1: up to Georgie. To Georgia's Niang, but you lose Matiss
Speaker 1: Thible on the defensive end of the floor, and maybe
Speaker 1: he's an important part of you being able to build
Speaker 1: your wall and stop your honest those are the interesting
Speaker 1: little chess match pieces. What's probably gonna what it's probably
Speaker 1: gonna come down to, is making shots. If George's is not,
Speaker 1: If Niang's knocking down half of his threes and tables broke,
Speaker 1: then it's gonna be Niang that's in the game. If
Speaker 1: Niang is not making enough threes and tibles competently knocking
Speaker 1: down thirty seven percent of them, then they can go
Speaker 1: towards Thyble and be a much better defensive team. Those
Speaker 1: are those little details that swing playoffs series. The last
Speaker 1: little note that I wanted to hit on on this
Speaker 1: one was trapping Harden. So the Bucks did a lot
Speaker 1: of trapping and heavily shading towards Heart Hardened in their
Speaker 1: pick and roll cover. Just tonight we saw the exact
Speaker 1: same thing from the Phoenix Suns a few nights ago,
Speaker 1: where they basically were double teaming James Harden on every
Speaker 1: single pick and roll. This is a strategy that I
Speaker 1: objectively disagree with, especially with this Sixers team. You know,
Speaker 1: obviously the Sons are a really good defensive team, and
Speaker 1: they did a pretty good job rotating around that. The
Speaker 1: Bucks aren't as good, but they did Okay. The thing
Speaker 1: is is when you consistently are compromising your defense, it
Speaker 1: makes your job hard. And in that Son's game the
Speaker 1: other night, a big part of why the Sixers lingered
Speaker 1: around the entire game until the fourth quarter was they
Speaker 1: were persistently playing four on three in the background because
Speaker 1: the Suns kept trapping James Harden. I did a whole
Speaker 1: video on this right after the trade. I'm a big
Speaker 1: believer with James Harden, in particular at the space of
Speaker 1: his career. This is not two thousand eighteen James Harden.
Speaker 1: Tonight's game is an unusual result relative to what we've
Speaker 1: usually been getting out of James Harden. So what I
Speaker 1: would do is I would stop sending so much attention
Speaker 1: to James Harden, and I would dare him to beat you,
Speaker 1: because I genuinely believe rather than letting Tobias Harris and
Speaker 1: Tyrese Maxie and Joel Embiide play four on three all
Speaker 1: night long. I would much rather watch James Harden the
Speaker 1: out of shape, clearly not the same physical athlete that
Speaker 1: he was back in two thousand eighteen. I'd rather have
Speaker 1: that guy constantly trying to break down my defense than
Speaker 1: constantly compromising my defense and playing four on three in
Speaker 1: the back end. That's gonna be a really interesting thing
Speaker 1: to watch with the Sixers in a playoff series, is
Speaker 1: how teams decide to defend James Harden. Because I do
Speaker 1: think there will be a point in the in the
Speaker 1: playoffs where the encounter team that feels comfortable leaving James
Speaker 1: Harden on an island and he's gonna have to attack
Speaker 1: in isolation. And just like that video I shared earlier today,
Speaker 1: when James Harden attack an isolation, but good teams crowd
Speaker 1: the lane. There was this big play in that Son's
Speaker 1: game where Devin Booker locked up a James Harden isolation.
Speaker 1: Everyone will see stuff like that and think, like, oh man,
Speaker 1: Devin Booker locked up James Harden. Devin Booker is only
Speaker 1: an okay defensive player, but the Sons did a really
Speaker 1: good job on that possession of shading and taking away
Speaker 1: James Harden's right hand in help side so that he
Speaker 1: had no choice but to cross back over to his
Speaker 1: left or to try to go to the left, and
Speaker 1: Devin Booker could sit on it. And that's why when
Speaker 1: you when you take away that pick and roll option,
Speaker 1: and and and forced James Harden to try to beat you,
Speaker 1: He's just not that same superstar level talent that he
Speaker 1: was in two thousand and eighteen. He's descended down. You
Speaker 1: could argue Devin Booker is better. You can argue Chris
Speaker 1: Paul's better. You can argue Jason Tatum and John Moran
Speaker 1: and a lot of these guys are better than James
Speaker 1: Harden at this point. And so because of that, I'm
Speaker 1: a big believer in leaving him in single coverage, make
Speaker 1: him beat you. Joel Embiide has been a freaking monster
Speaker 1: for the last couple of weeks. In that Son's game,
Speaker 1: and James Harden went two for eleven again, Joel Empiade
Speaker 1: was getting whatever he wanted. He had to run there
Speaker 1: in the third quarter where he where he was scoring
Speaker 1: every damn near every time down the floor. He was
Speaker 1: a monster again tonight against the Bucks, and Bead's gonna
Speaker 1: be fine. Get them to go away from him double
Speaker 1: and Bead get the ball out of his hands. Forced
Speaker 1: this to be a James Harden team, and I think
Speaker 1: that gives you your best chance to beat them. All right,
Speaker 1: So we're gonna move on to this m VP conversation
Speaker 1: for a second. So ESPN released their straw poll, which
Speaker 1: they do a couple of times every year, and it's
Speaker 1: from actual MVP voters, so tends to be pretty prescient
Speaker 1: about who's actually going to win m v P. Now,
Speaker 1: I was very interested in the results to be clear,
Speaker 1: real quick, just quick synopsis. Nicola Yokich had sixty two
Speaker 1: first place votes, Joel embeat at twenty nine first place votes,
Speaker 1: and Jhanison and Janasontenna Coople only had nine first place votes. So,
Speaker 1: if you guys remember my little MVP breakdown that I
Speaker 1: did the other day, I had your kitchen first place
Speaker 1: as well. But I said, if the Bucks got the
Speaker 1: one seed, I give it to you. Honest, I think
Speaker 1: he's very much the best regular season player in the NBA.
Speaker 1: I value what he brings on a night tonight basis
Speaker 1: more than in beating Yokich. As good as Yokich has
Speaker 1: been this year, I think he has a textbook m
Speaker 1: v P case. I think giving it to the one
Speaker 1: seed is a better precedent to set moving forward, provided
Speaker 1: that the player is in the conversation for the best
Speaker 1: players in the league and legitimately has had an amazing season,
Speaker 1: which the Honest has had. But what the voters are
Speaker 1: telling you is they're not even They're barely even considering
Speaker 1: the Honest, which I thought was really interesting, And Bead
Speaker 1: having as many first place votes as he does is
Speaker 1: really interesting. Because the Sixers have a very easy schedule
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. I can't remember off the
Speaker 1: top of my head. I think they have the twenty
Speaker 1: nine easiest or the twenty nine hardest, so second easiest
Speaker 1: remaining schedule among all NBA teams here down the stretch,
Speaker 1: whereas the Celtics and the Heat and the Bucks all
Speaker 1: have significantly tougher schedule. So there's a decent chance that
Speaker 1: when the dust settles on this thing, that Philly is
Speaker 1: the one seed and Embeed clearly has a ton of
Speaker 1: voters support and he might very well get it. I
Speaker 1: would disagree with that I think both Yokich and Janice
Speaker 1: have been better players this season. But I think that, uh,
Speaker 1: that whoever ends up getting that one seed in the
Speaker 1: East is probably who I would pick as someone who
Speaker 1: deserves it. If it ends up being Boston or Miami,
Speaker 1: then I would go with Nicola Yokis. But it looks like,
Speaker 1: I mean, again, these are the straw pole, uh, the
Speaker 1: results that ESPN does that are always so informative about
Speaker 1: this process. It looks like it's gonna be Yoki. And
Speaker 1: like I say, every single gear in my little Twitter
Speaker 1: rants that I do from time to time, you know,
Speaker 1: all of these m v P voters have egos. It's
Speaker 1: kind of just a natural part of the business, I think,
Speaker 1: And it's much much harder for them to move off
Speaker 1: of a player than it is for them to just
Speaker 1: stay put where they're at, because then they can point
Speaker 1: to all the articles they wrote all season, all of
Speaker 1: their analysis all season. If they want Yokich, It's just
Speaker 1: gonna take a lot for them to overturn that. So
Speaker 1: I disagree with that. However, it looks like it's it's
Speaker 1: going to be Yokich in the end. One last note
Speaker 1: on on Devin Booker you know, I did a whole
Speaker 1: thing on this the other day, so I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: get too far into it, but I I broke down
Speaker 1: the criterion and I talked about how you know, you're
Speaker 1: supposed to be the best player on the best team
Speaker 1: in the league, which Devin Booker has down pat but
Speaker 1: he's not in the conversation for the best player in
Speaker 1: the league, and he hasn't been the most Valuable player
Speaker 1: in the league. And this is where I'm gonna repeat
Speaker 1: something that I heard from Ryan Russilo, who because I'm
Speaker 1: always listening to everybody, because I always want to hear
Speaker 1: what other people's opinions are because it just gives you
Speaker 1: more perspective. And the best synopsis of the Bookers situation
Speaker 1: that I've heard was Ryan Russilo. He just said, have
Speaker 1: any of us for even a second thought that Devin
Speaker 1: Booker has been the best player in the league this year,
Speaker 1: or that he's had the best season. No, and if
Speaker 1: you haven't at least had that conversation, I don't think
Speaker 1: you can be in that uh, in that conference. I
Speaker 1: don't think you can be a realistic m VP candidate.
Speaker 1: I appreciated that Ryan put that so succinct because, as
Speaker 1: is always the case with me, I'm gonna have it
Speaker 1: in a lot more of a long drawn out type
Speaker 1: of way. I Booker has not had the best season
Speaker 1: in the n B in the NBA this year, so
Speaker 1: he simply cannot be the MVF he by any measure
Speaker 1: that we've previously used this award for. So again I
Speaker 1: predict it will be Yokich. I think it should be honest.
Speaker 1: I give him beat an outside chance if he gets
Speaker 1: the one seed. I'm gonna move on to the two
Speaker 1: ranking my contenders. So again, to be clear up front,
Speaker 1: we're gonna rank the top five contenders in the East
Speaker 1: and the top five contenders in the West. To be
Speaker 1: clear upfront, contender does not mean power rankings. It does
Speaker 1: not mean what team is playing the best as of late.
Speaker 1: It does not mean anything having to do with anything
Speaker 1: other than is this team, like if I was ranking
Speaker 1: percentage chances to beholding the trophy at the end of
Speaker 1: the day. That's all I'm factoring in when I'm ranking
Speaker 1: these teams. So let's start in the Eastern Conference. At
Speaker 1: number five, I have the Miami Heat. This is a
Speaker 1: team that has been near the top of everyone's list
Speaker 1: for most of the season. They were at the top
Speaker 1: of the East for the vast majority this season. But
Speaker 1: I never believed in them, and so much of that
Speaker 1: centered around what they do on the offensive end of
Speaker 1: the floor, and it's starting to finally materialize. I was
Speaker 1: referring to that offensive issue as something that would plague
Speaker 1: them in the postseason, and ironically enough, it's ended up
Speaker 1: being something that has plagued them in the regular season.
Speaker 1: So as of late, since January twenty nine, they are
Speaker 1: sixteen and eleven in that stretch, the Heat are twenty
Speaker 1: feet in offense in third in defense, So they've had
Speaker 1: the third best defense in the entire NBA since January nine,
Speaker 1: in our only sixteen and eleven. So all of those
Speaker 1: offensive issues that I've been talking about have finally come
Speaker 1: home to roost sooner than I even expected. So much
Speaker 1: of it. It comes down to a handful of different issues.
Speaker 1: So first of all, is space for regardless of who
Speaker 1: has the ball, if you're playing Jimmy Butler, p J. Tucker,
Speaker 1: and bam At a bio, that's to three point shooters
Speaker 1: in jim You Butler and Bamata and uh and p J.
Speaker 1: Tucker that are below average three point shooters are gonna
Speaker 1: knock down maybe one out of every three or three
Speaker 1: out of every ten. Right, and then Bamata Bios I've
Speaker 1: laid out, has been one of the worst long range
Speaker 1: shooters in the NBA this season. I know, when we
Speaker 1: evaluate bamat to Bio as a talent, where you look
Speaker 1: at him as someone who is a proficient player from
Speaker 1: the midrange, it just hasn't materialized this season. That lack
Speaker 1: of spacing has consistently been an issue for the Heat,
Speaker 1: going all the way back to the NBA Finals when
Speaker 1: the Lakers utterly shut them down any time that series
Speaker 1: was really in flux. So from that standpoint, you know,
Speaker 1: like like it just especially as we go into a
Speaker 1: postseason series and we're looking at you know, them against
Speaker 1: the Bucks, or them against the Boston Celtics, or them
Speaker 1: against the Philadelphia seventies six ers, I don't understand. I
Speaker 1: don't understand how they're suddenly gonna be able to score.
Speaker 1: That's gonna be an issue for them throughout this throughout
Speaker 1: this entire postseason run. Another huge part of this is
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler just hasn't quite been as good as he
Speaker 1: was last year. I know the numbers look okay, but
Speaker 1: if you dig into it a little bit, his playmaking
Speaker 1: is dipped a touch from where it was last year.
Speaker 1: His percentages have dropped from where they are last year.
Speaker 1: He's actually below fift and effective field goal percentage, which
Speaker 1: weighs your field goal percentage with three point shots. And
Speaker 1: his availability has been an issue. Not to mention, we
Speaker 1: had this big blow up between him and Erik Spoelstre
Speaker 1: the other day. Huge part of that is just the
Speaker 1: way that Jimmy Butler can wear on people over the
Speaker 1: course of time. This is something that we've seen everywhere
Speaker 1: he's been over the course of the year. So I
Speaker 1: I I put them at fifth because the teams below
Speaker 1: them I don't think have any chance at all to
Speaker 1: win the title. A lot would have to go right
Speaker 1: for Miami, but I think they're clearly below the next
Speaker 1: four teams in this list. Number four, the Philadelphia has
Speaker 1: seventy sixers, so they since the Heart and Trade that
Speaker 1: these numbers are coming into tonight, by the way, because
Speaker 1: NBA does not update their stats that fast, So since
Speaker 1: the Hard and Trade, they've been ninth in defense and
Speaker 1: twelfth in offense. That's only okay, especially when you factor
Speaker 1: in the first handful of games. They utterly destroyed the
Speaker 1: Minnesota Timberwolves. They beat the New York Knicks twice and
Speaker 1: put up massive numbers. They floated a lot of those
Speaker 1: metrics with a handful of easy opponents early in that schedule,
Speaker 1: and so from that standpoint, for them to be twelfth
Speaker 1: in offense, adding James Harden to the mix, it's a
Speaker 1: big disappointment. Now. So much of that comes down to
Speaker 1: James Harden in the way that he's been struggling yet
Speaker 1: his best game as a Sixer tonight. So much of
Speaker 1: that's gonna depend on whether that was an outlier or
Speaker 1: if that was the real deal, And so we'll pay
Speaker 1: attention to that moving forward. Of one other really weird
Speaker 1: note coming into tonight, when e beat is off the
Speaker 1: floor but James Harden is on the floor. In a
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty nine minutes, the Sixers have had a
Speaker 1: minus two point three net rating. There's something funky about
Speaker 1: that group. I thought it was a big part of
Speaker 1: why the Sixers went with no Harden, no Embiid in
Speaker 1: that beginning of the fourth quarter, which ended up backfiring
Speaker 1: as Janice and Chris Middleton ran them over and made
Speaker 1: that into a game. But I think the Sixers are
Speaker 1: trying to work out some details of how to use
Speaker 1: James Harden, and so much of it is like, dude, hey,
Speaker 1: James Harden just has to be better. He's got to
Speaker 1: be a better player. And then with Joel Embid, I
Speaker 1: just don't view him as highly as I view these
Speaker 1: stars at the top of the league because of his
Speaker 1: inability to handle double teams and because of how much
Speaker 1: he relies on foul gdrifting. I said this the other
Speaker 1: day and I got in trouble, but it's it's literally
Speaker 1: a fact Joanna's Joel Embiid is not as good at
Speaker 1: putting the ball in the basket in terms of field
Speaker 1: goal percentage as some of his peers are. He is
Speaker 1: a sub fifty field goal percentage guy. When you compare
Speaker 1: that to Janice and Nicola Yokich and Lebron and Kevin
Speaker 1: Durant and how efficient those guys are if you don't
Speaker 1: send them to the line, they're still making shots. And
Speaker 1: Bead can struggle a little bit if he's not getting
Speaker 1: foul calls in terms of his efficiency. So I'm just
Speaker 1: not as high on him as some of the other
Speaker 1: players at the top of the league. That's why I
Speaker 1: have the Sixers all the way down at four, number
Speaker 1: three Boston Celtics. So to be clear, I would have
Speaker 1: had the Celtics at number one. That's how confident I
Speaker 1: felt about this team before the Robert Williams injury. Digging
Speaker 1: into the numbers, they were about a plus ten net
Speaker 1: rating with Robert Williams on the floor this year and
Speaker 1: about a plus four without him, So it seems like
Speaker 1: a big drop. A little context there. Robert Williams has
Speaker 1: started every single game he's played this year, and if
Speaker 1: you play your minutes with the starters, meaning the best
Speaker 1: players on your team, it tends to lead to some
Speaker 1: better metrics in that regard. So I it's it's it's
Speaker 1: it's hard to properly weigh how important Robert Williams is
Speaker 1: to this team. The biggest, the easiest way that I
Speaker 1: would describe it is depth. We talked a lot about
Speaker 1: the Celtics defense. It's the big part of why I
Speaker 1: believe so much in them. They are far and away
Speaker 1: the best defense in the league in my opinion. They
Speaker 1: switch everything, they don't have to double but when they do.
Speaker 1: They do it well. But if you take Robert Williams
Speaker 1: out of the equation Asian, all of a sudden, you
Speaker 1: have two feasible options for closing lineups. You can either
Speaker 1: go to Al Horford at the five and bring Derek
Speaker 1: White into the picture. Now it's Derek White, Marcus Smart,
Speaker 1: Brown and Tatum and Al Horford. Or you can go
Speaker 1: really small, right and you can just take him off
Speaker 1: the court entirely, go with another guard or wing or
Speaker 1: like a Grant Williams or a Peyton Pritchard, and you know,
Speaker 1: basically switch everything and hope to overcome that with athleticism.
Speaker 1: Bottom line is suddenly taking Robert Williams and his thirty
Speaker 1: minutes a game out of the picture puts a lot
Speaker 1: on Al Horford's plate. And he's older and he's had
Speaker 1: an history of breaking down in the past. So I'm
Speaker 1: just a little bit concerned about the Celtics from a
Speaker 1: depth standpoint. But at the end of these games, it's
Speaker 1: still gonna be Tatum and Brown, Marcus Smart, probably Derek
Speaker 1: White and Al Horford, and it's still gonna be a
Speaker 1: really difficult team to beat. I take them handily over
Speaker 1: the Sixers and the heat, and I think they're every
Speaker 1: bit as good as the teams above them. I'm just
Speaker 1: king them below because I think their depth is going
Speaker 1: to inevitably become a problem for them down the line.
Speaker 1: Tatum and Brown look fantastic. They're both starting to shoot
Speaker 1: a lot better. This is still a bona fide title contender.
Speaker 1: I've just taken them down a notch from the best
Speaker 1: team in the East to kind of a little bit
Speaker 1: more in the mix. Number two the Milwaukee Bucks. So
Speaker 1: they're eleven and three since February, counting tonight's win. They
Speaker 1: coming into tonight not counting tonight because the stats haven't updated.
Speaker 1: Their fifth in offense fourteen and defense sixth and net rating,
Speaker 1: So their offense looks great, but still that defensive end
Speaker 1: of the four is continuing to be a problem for them.
Speaker 1: They're good stretches. The stretches of the season where they've
Speaker 1: looked like the Bucks where they've put it together, still
Speaker 1: hasn't been that world beating, dominant type of good stretch
Speaker 1: that you would hope to see from a team that's
Speaker 1: defending the defending champion, to prove to the to us
Speaker 1: that they can still do it in clutch situations. This year,
Speaker 1: they are sixth and defense. Like I mentioned earlier, that's
Speaker 1: your best evidence of them having a switch that they
Speaker 1: can flip. I don't think it's enough for me personally
Speaker 1: to put them at the top of this list, but
Speaker 1: maybe that's your hope is whatever they've been doing in
Speaker 1: crunch time on defense is what they'll do when the
Speaker 1: chips are on the line. And then lastly, just be honest,
Speaker 1: you saw him amazing again tonight. One of two things
Speaker 1: happened in last year's plaoff run. Either he became a
Speaker 1: player who's as good is Kevin Durant Lebron or someone
Speaker 1: who's better than them, and we're gonna find out in
Speaker 1: this postseason run. And he's that big wild card. And
Speaker 1: if he takes a big leap, if he shoots incredibly
Speaker 1: from the from the perimeter and from the freight throw line,
Speaker 1: and he and his playmaking takes a leap with everything
Speaker 1: else that he brings to the table, he's the best
Speaker 1: player in the league at that point. If that's the case,
Speaker 1: I don't predict that to happen. I would take Katie
Speaker 1: over him, But Janice is the wild card that makes
Speaker 1: the Buck such a dangerous playoff opponent. Last, but not least,
Speaker 1: my number one contender in the East, the team I
Speaker 1: expect to win the East, and the only team that
Speaker 1: I think has a realistic chance of uh So, this
Speaker 1: gets tricky because they're in the in game right. If
Speaker 1: you look at where the standings are at, they're probably
Speaker 1: gonna end up in the seven seed because they're gonna
Speaker 1: finish eight, but they'll probably win that first playing game.
Speaker 1: So you're gonna put the Bucks at number seven, they're
Speaker 1: probably excuse me, the Nets at number seven. They're gonna
Speaker 1: play one of those top four teams, whether that's the Heat,
Speaker 1: the Bucks, the Sixers, or the Celtics. They're gonna play
Speaker 1: one of those teams. I would pick them over any
Speaker 1: of those teams except for the Celtics that they have
Speaker 1: Robert Williams, which they don't. So that's how that's how
Speaker 1: confident I feel about this Nets team. I think they're
Speaker 1: going to send one of these teams home early, which
Speaker 1: is really unfortunate for whichever team that ends up being.
Speaker 1: So much of this comes down to Kadi and Kyrie
Speaker 1: and their unique ability to be immune to space and concerns.
Speaker 1: I did a full video on this last week. When
Speaker 1: you have guys who are comfortable operating in the mid range,
Speaker 1: where their bread and butter does not involve putting their
Speaker 1: head down and getting to the rim, those guys are
Speaker 1: immune to space ason. As a result of that, they
Speaker 1: have an exam they have an opportunity to play other forwards.
Speaker 1: When this trade first went down, I told you guys,
Speaker 1: I don't think they can play Bruce Brown and Andre
Speaker 1: Drummond at the same time. Well, I was proven wrong
Speaker 1: about that because for the for the most for the
Speaker 1: most part, Katie and Kyrie aren't operating in the pain,
Speaker 1: so there there they feel plenty comfortable operating with that
Speaker 1: kind of spacing. So as a result, having Bruce Brown
Speaker 1: and Andre Drummond on the floor, that bolsters the athleticism
Speaker 1: of those lineups, That bolsters the physicality of those lineups,
Speaker 1: their ability to be successful in the glass and on
Speaker 1: the defensive end of the floor. In their last ten games,
Speaker 1: I know everyone thinks the Nets have had some They've
Speaker 1: had some ugly losses recently. I know that wanted to
Speaker 1: Charlotte the other night was really disappointing. They lost to
Speaker 1: the Grizzlies without John Morant. I know but over the
Speaker 1: course of their last ten games, their fourteenth and defense,
Speaker 1: which I think is more than good enough. With this group,
Speaker 1: they're still dealing with some continuity stuff. These losses like
Speaker 1: the one to Charlotte and the one to Memphis. I
Speaker 1: think over time they'll be able to work out they
Speaker 1: This is again, is that this is a team that's
Speaker 1: effectively in training camp. If you really look at it,
Speaker 1: Katie and Kyrie are finally getting consistent minutes on the
Speaker 1: floor together. There's a bunch of new guys in the fold,
Speaker 1: like Andre Drummond and Seth Curry. I'm not going to
Speaker 1: judge them for these little losses here. I'm going to
Speaker 1: judge them by their ceiling, which they've flashed plenty of
Speaker 1: times over the course of this last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: They have a one hundred and twenty five offensive rating
Speaker 1: with Katie and Kyrie on the floor this year plus
Speaker 1: eleven point three net. They've been been with those two
Speaker 1: guys on the floor, and they're gonna have them on
Speaker 1: the floor moving forward and the last but at least
Speaker 1: they are built to survive in a playoff environment. Kyrie
Speaker 1: and kd are offensive players that are proven to succeed
Speaker 1: at the highest levels of playoff intensity, and they have
Speaker 1: a defensive scheme that's proven to work in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: They switch everything, they stagnate opponents, and they have a
Speaker 1: lot of success on that front. So five Heat, four Sixers,
Speaker 1: three Celtics, two Buck and one nets. Those are my
Speaker 1: contenders in these all right. So I've been told that
Speaker 1: Carson is back and his audio is working, So we're
Speaker 1: gonna bring Carson back on. Yeah, all right, I really
Speaker 1: like our chances again this right this time, Jason. So
Speaker 1: we are going to play a game called fill in
Speaker 1: the Lane. It's pretty simple. I'm gonna give you a prompt.
Speaker 1: You're gonna fill in the blank at the end. So
Speaker 1: we're gonna start with the team you were just talking about,
Speaker 1: the Sixers, Achilles heel Is. I'm gonna go with James
Speaker 1: harden Um more often than not this season. He hasn't
Speaker 1: looked like he's looked tonight. And I think that players
Speaker 1: tell us who they are over large sample sizes, not
Speaker 1: short sample sizes. And I was really impressed with the
Speaker 1: way that Phoenix attacked him just in his first shift
Speaker 1: the other night. They put him in seven pick and
Speaker 1: roll in isolation situations when you wear on his legs
Speaker 1: by making him guard, it has a progressive fatigue of
Speaker 1: fatigue effect as well, And I think that we have
Speaker 1: enough tape on that sort of thing, especially when you
Speaker 1: look at the rest of the Sixers lineups. When you
Speaker 1: have Joel Embi, Matisse Stybol, Tobias Harris, and Tyris Maxie
Speaker 1: on the floor, they are so good defensively elsewhere that
Speaker 1: you have to attack James Harden. I think that can
Speaker 1: lead to fatigue. And I think this this team ends
Speaker 1: up going down with James Harden in single coverage, forcing
Speaker 1: difficult shots, missing them, and them falling short against a
Speaker 1: better offensive superstar. Is there a particular matchup that you
Speaker 1: think is really troubling for them, Like, is there a
Speaker 1: sort of because a lot of the really elite teams
Speaker 1: in the East this year, outside of obviously like the
Speaker 1: nett feelssarily have that superstar guard. But is there like
Speaker 1: a team that you look at out there you think
Speaker 1: can really go out and work Harden on defense, Like
Speaker 1: you were saying, I'm gonna go with the Boston Celtics,
Speaker 1: so one Al Horford. Nobody can guard Joel Embid, but
Speaker 1: Al Horford does an okay job. He plays positional defense,
Speaker 1: he doesn't fall for his fakes. He does a good
Speaker 1: job of just getting in the way and making Joel
Speaker 1: Embiid make shots like which we talked about is not
Speaker 1: a strength of his relative to some of his peers.
Speaker 1: So then on the perimeter, they're gonna switch everything. They're
Speaker 1: very unlikely to send traps at James Harden and pick
Speaker 1: and roll, so it's gonna be a lot of James
Speaker 1: Harden trying to beat guys like Tatum and Brown and
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart off the dribble. I think there are terrible
Speaker 1: matchup for the Sixers. Plus the Celtics can get out
Speaker 1: in transition as well, which is a direct weakness of
Speaker 1: the Sixers. So I'd say the Celtics would be the
Speaker 1: team that would most handily beat the Sixers that they
Speaker 1: had alright, fill in the lane for me here. The
Speaker 1: nets best first round matchup is Oh, that's another good one.
Speaker 1: I'm I might go to Sixers as well. The uh
Speaker 1: I think they beat Miami easily. I think they beat
Speaker 1: the Sixers easily. I think the Celtics and Bucks would
Speaker 1: be tougher matchups, but I would pick the Nets to
Speaker 1: win in six or seven games. The reason why I
Speaker 1: say the Sixers is one they the the the Nets
Speaker 1: thrive in that isolation basketball environment, and if they get
Speaker 1: into that type of matchup, they're going to have a
Speaker 1: lot of success. You've literally seen an example of a
Speaker 1: bit of milage they have to Harden didn't seem to
Speaker 1: enjoy having to compete with them in that type of environment.
Speaker 1: And then again, it's just that it's that dynamic of
Speaker 1: isolation basketball and living in transition. And who are you
Speaker 1: picking James Harden creating shots from the perimeter or Kyrie
Speaker 1: and Kevin Durant. I'm going with those two guys, all right,
Speaker 1: fill in the lane. The Clippling with a healthy Paul
Speaker 1: George is firmly below Golden State, Memphis and the Sun's
Speaker 1: but actually has a has a puncher's chance to win
Speaker 1: the title. So most of the season for the Clippers
Speaker 1: has been just maintaining their identity right because Kauai is out,
Speaker 1: Paul George is out. Everything all eyes are on the
Speaker 1: next season. And they've done that successfully. They've maintained their identity.
Speaker 1: Now I have no idea how in the hell Paul
Speaker 1: George is playing. I hope at some point we get
Speaker 1: a press conference where he kind of breaks down what
Speaker 1: this whole thing has been like. Because for whatever reason,
Speaker 1: I thought, if you need Tommy John surgery, I just
Speaker 1: thought that was it for you. I can't believe just
Speaker 1: I I can't even imagine shooting jump shots with a
Speaker 1: missing ligament in my elbow. But for whatever reason, I'm
Speaker 1: happy for Paul George that he can come back. They
Speaker 1: have they I've said on on many occasions, the Clippers
Speaker 1: have the most modern basketball approach that I've seen in
Speaker 1: the league. They maximize their talent better than any team
Speaker 1: in the league, in my opinion. So if you add
Speaker 1: Paul George to that picture, it just gives them one
Speaker 1: additional perimeter initiator and one initial of one additional perimeter
Speaker 1: defensive player. Just raises the ceiling, and like we see
Speaker 1: saw last year, anything can happen. That same team basically
Speaker 1: as it's currently constructed, made it to the conference finals.
Speaker 1: I don't see how that's out of the question for
Speaker 1: them with Paul George available. What level I mean, if
Speaker 1: you're talking about, you know, the puncher's chance at the title,
Speaker 1: how great does PG have to be for that? How
Speaker 1: much they need out of you know, the secondary creators,
Speaker 1: because obviously for them to get where they did last year,
Speaker 1: it was like unreal Reggie Jackson. Where would you put
Speaker 1: the bar at there? Well, it needs to be unreal
Speaker 1: Reggie Jackson and unreal Paul George. But you know, there's
Speaker 1: kind of it's like the concept of having the monkey
Speaker 1: on your back, you know what I mean, Like when
Speaker 1: you break through that wall, something happens psychologically and you
Speaker 1: start playing better. Happened with you, honest last year. Happened
Speaker 1: with Paul George. Last year Paul George. I used to
Speaker 1: roast him all the time. He had lost five consecutive
Speaker 1: playoff series coming into UH, coming into his tenure with
Speaker 1: the Clippers, and it's like, you just something clicked for
Speaker 1: him and he just looked comfortable on the floor all
Speaker 1: the time. And we already know that Paul George and
Speaker 1: Reggie Jackson playing the way that they did last year
Speaker 1: in the postseason was enough to push the Suns to
Speaker 1: the brink. They won that series in six games, and
Speaker 1: I remember two games early in that series, UH one
Speaker 1: in particular where they won on a I think it
Speaker 1: was the one where they won on the eighton lob
Speaker 1: uh of right at the buzzer. And then there was
Speaker 1: another one that they want. I think likewo like really
Speaker 1: close barn Burner type of game. That's one of those
Speaker 1: series where the Sun's won in six, but it was
Speaker 1: a lot closer than it looked. And that same Sun's
Speaker 1: team is basically what we're looking at right now is
Speaker 1: the runaway title favorite. I'm not saying that they're going
Speaker 1: to be that that type of team, but that's what
Speaker 1: I mean by Punner's chance. If Reggie Jackson and Paul
Speaker 1: George get it going, of course, they're capable of beating
Speaker 1: anybody if enough shots go down. A lot of people
Speaker 1: are saying, you know, PG, without a ligament, you on
Speaker 1: your best day, shooting the lights out, you might be
Speaker 1: the better option there. That's what I'm from some people
Speaker 1: around the league. That's all I'm saying. All Right, fill
Speaker 1: in the lane. The NBA scoring title will go to
Speaker 1: all Right, I think it's gonna be Lebron. The thing
Speaker 1: that's tricky with this is they're all I think Lebron's
Speaker 1: got a little bit of a lead now. I think
Speaker 1: he's up to like two tenths of a of a
Speaker 1: point in the in the lead, which is bigger than
Speaker 1: it's been of late, because all those guys have been
Speaker 1: jam packed right around twenty nine points per game for
Speaker 1: most of the last couple of months. The tricky thing is,
Speaker 1: with Anthony Davis coming back, is Lebron gonna gun as
Speaker 1: much as he has been? That will be the trick. However,
Speaker 1: I think this, I think the scoring title matters more
Speaker 1: to Lebron than it matters to the other guys. Katie's
Speaker 1: got a bunch of them. Janice legitimately doesn't care about him,
Speaker 1: and Beat I think cares more about the m v P.
Speaker 1: So I think Lebron will understand the bare minimum that
Speaker 1: he has to do, lock that thing up, and I
Speaker 1: think he'll get it done. How much do you think
Speaker 1: it actually matters? Like, is the significance of it mostly
Speaker 1: just that you know he went out there and did
Speaker 1: it in year nineteen exactly, That's exactly what the significance is.
Speaker 1: It's like the Lebron is too smart with this kind
Speaker 1: of stuff. I think the way he looks at it
Speaker 1: is like dudes are gonna be arguing at a sports
Speaker 1: bar fifteen years from now, and it's it's just one
Speaker 1: more round. In the magazine, it's like after you've unleashed
Speaker 1: ten finals and and you know, and after you've unleashed
Speaker 1: the uh, you know, NBA's all time leading score, after
Speaker 1: you've unleashed four time finals, MVP or whatever it is.
Speaker 1: It's that other. Oh, by the way, in his nineteen season,
Speaker 1: he wont a scoring title, Like it's just one more
Speaker 1: bullet in the gun that gives that that ammunition towards
Speaker 1: his goat case. It doesn't matter for me. I couldn't
Speaker 1: care less into my opinion of Lebron. Kind of is
Speaker 1: what it is at this point, but it's it's your
Speaker 1: You could sway some people with it, and I think
Speaker 1: Lebron's trying to fight for every inch that he can
Speaker 1: at this point. All Right, last one here the NBA
Speaker 1: player you would least want to be slapped by ish
Speaker 1: um Man. I'm gonna go with Joel Embiide. There was
Speaker 1: a play in that fourth quarter today. I don't know
Speaker 1: if you saw it. He's isolating Brook Lopez on the
Speaker 1: left block and he does a jab step and Brooke
Speaker 1: buckles just a little bit to the side. And I
Speaker 1: talked about this in a video that I recorded yesterday.
Speaker 1: But when you're working in tight spaces on offense, if
Speaker 1: you can create a tiny bit of separation, it's rather
Speaker 1: than trying to go around somebody, you want to try
Speaker 1: to shoot that gap with physicality and try not to
Speaker 1: get pushed off your line. It's such an important part
Speaker 1: of operating in space and Joel Embid did that perfectly.
Speaker 1: So after he does the job, step Brook buckles just
Speaker 1: a tiny bit, Joel just does a vicious power dribble
Speaker 1: and like just flies into the lane and hits uh
Speaker 1: Brook Lopez in the sternom with his shoulder. Brook Lopez
Speaker 1: goes flying and he ends up getting an and one.
Speaker 1: And I was just sitting there thinking, like, that's that's
Speaker 1: just brute force. And I think Joel Embiid is probably
Speaker 1: the great is brute force athlete that we have in
Speaker 1: the league right now. With Joannice, he's got the best
Speaker 1: combination of speed and quickness and coordination with that. But
Speaker 1: in terms of just pure brute force would be Joel Embid.
Speaker 1: Couple that with the wingspan. I think if he loaded
Speaker 1: up on me, there's like at least a nine percent
Speaker 1: chance I'd be knocked unconscious. What about you, Carson, Yeah, Well,
Speaker 1: Ebid was actually my first thought to you, just because
Speaker 1: I feel like he has enough dog in him and
Speaker 1: enough of like the nastiness, you know, because that's a
Speaker 1: lot of the guys who I You know, if James
Speaker 1: Johnson comes up to me and slaps me, I think
Speaker 1: that I'm done for, you know, because that guy is
Speaker 1: an actual fighter. He's a he's a pretty intense guy.
Speaker 1: I think, Yo kich you know, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: weight there. The dude had knives thrown at his head
Speaker 1: throughout his childhood, grew up in you know, sambor Serbia,
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not enjoying a Yoki slap to the face.
Speaker 1: I feel like Pat dev might, like, you know, throw
Speaker 1: a scratch in there, just do something really really uh
Speaker 1: Dison herble. But yeah, I think I beat is a
Speaker 1: really good choice. I mean again, he was the first
Speaker 1: guy who I don't want to slap from Joel Embiad
Speaker 1: at all. James Johnson was an interesting one. He's just
Speaker 1: famous for being like a jiu jitsu's crop magaw something
Speaker 1: type of fighter. So the thing is the problem is
Speaker 1: James Johnson would hit me, and like if I gave
Speaker 1: him a dirty look, he would continue to hit me
Speaker 1: and then I'd be down for the count, so that'd
Speaker 1: be the issue there. Yeah, now he's got a deep bag.
Speaker 1: I mean maybe your slap. He's not as dangerous, but
Speaker 1: an actual fight, I mean, he's the guy you most
Speaker 1: want to avoid. I think no doubt. Alrighty, so we
Speaker 1: are going to Thanks Carson, I appreciate you, man. We
Speaker 1: are going to finish up tonight with my top five
Speaker 1: contenders in the Western Conference and I got a surprise
Speaker 1: for you guys for number five, So my fifth most
Speaker 1: likely team in the Western Conference to win the NBA
Speaker 1: Championship and again qualifier. Up Front, this is not power rankings,
Speaker 1: This is not how I feel about the team. This
Speaker 1: is strictly ranking percentage chances that this team could win
Speaker 1: an NBA championship, and at number five, I have the Lakers.
Speaker 1: So to be clear up front, this is a terrible,
Speaker 1: terrible team. But it's really this simple. It's Lebron James
Speaker 1: and Anthony Davis, a shrunken rotation in a playoff setting.
Speaker 1: Do you think they are more or what's more? Likely?
Speaker 1: That the Utah Jazz, who are basically proven playoff failures,
Speaker 1: will continue to bring back the same guys even though
Speaker 1: we know it doesn't work. The Nuggets, who outside of
Speaker 1: Nikolayok have nobody. The Minnesota Timberwolves, who we've talked about
Speaker 1: at length, can't be a good team when they have
Speaker 1: all their stars. The Clippers, who, I guess Paul George
Speaker 1: makes it a little more complicated, but they're not and
Speaker 1: as good as some of these teams at the top
Speaker 1: of the league, or the New Orleans Pelicans, those are
Speaker 1: your other options for number five. So what's more statistically
Speaker 1: likely that Lebron and a D get healthy and somehow
Speaker 1: managed to escape the play in and then Lebron and
Speaker 1: a D find some synergy and the defense kind of
Speaker 1: comes together and they go on a run, or that
Speaker 1: one of those other teams I just mentioned to do it,
Speaker 1: and I would go with the Lakers. To be clear,
Speaker 1: I expect them to probably lose in the playing game
Speaker 1: and definitely to lose in the first round of the playoffs.
Speaker 1: That's what I expect to happen. But they have just
Speaker 1: a tiny, tiny chance of everything breaking right for them
Speaker 1: and them getting it done, whereas the teams below them
Speaker 1: I think have zero chance. So that's why I have
Speaker 1: them at number five. Again, not a power ranking, not
Speaker 1: how I feel about the team just chances to win
Speaker 1: a title. Number four. Yeah, I don't want to talk
Speaker 1: about the Lakers anymore. They don't deserve it. Number four
Speaker 1: the Dallas Mavericks. So their defense has fallen way off
Speaker 1: coming into tonight. They obviously looked great against the shell
Speaker 1: of the Lakers without Lebron and Anthony Davis, but they
Speaker 1: had lost three of their previous six games in that stretch.
Speaker 1: They had slipped to six in defense. If you remember
Speaker 1: the the defense was a huge part of why they
Speaker 1: were winning in the previous wretch. They were guarding extremely well.
Speaker 1: They were making up for their lack of defensive personnel
Speaker 1: with a lot of scheming, a lot of double teaming,
Speaker 1: a lot of trapping things along those lines. But as
Speaker 1: I said, that making up for defensive personnel requires a
Speaker 1: ton of effort, and effort is very difficult to maintain
Speaker 1: throughout the regular season. So it was inevitable that they
Speaker 1: were gonna slump a little bit. And they have the
Speaker 1: one thing that concerns about because it's easy to get
Speaker 1: excited about this team, right because I've got Luka don
Speaker 1: the ultimate playoff weapon. I've got extra creator uh creators.
Speaker 1: Because now in addition to just Jalen Brunson, they have
Speaker 1: Spencer Dinwoodie is another kind of like alpha dog offensive
Speaker 1: personality that feels comfortable creating shots for himself and taking
Speaker 1: and making big shots. And their defense is better, So
Speaker 1: you would kind of add that all together to mean
Speaker 1: Puncher's chance to win the title. Right, My only concern
Speaker 1: with them is that their defense is kind of gimmicky.
Speaker 1: It involves a ton of doubling and recovering, a ton
Speaker 1: of scramming guys out of mismatches because their defensive personnel
Speaker 1: isn't great. So I'm worried about really good teams and
Speaker 1: really good coaches being able to eventually scheme their way
Speaker 1: around a lot of what Dallas does. Number Three, I
Speaker 1: have the Memphis Grizzlies, So they have the best defense
Speaker 1: in the NBA in March coming into tonight. So all
Speaker 1: of the things that we worry about with young teams.
Speaker 1: Will they be able to create shots in the postseason,
Speaker 1: will they be able to defend as good as some
Speaker 1: of the other teams in the league. That doesn't seem
Speaker 1: to be a problem there that they've been arguably the
Speaker 1: second or third, probably the third best team in the
Speaker 1: NBA over the course of the the last half of the season,
Speaker 1: behind the Sons and the Celtics. They're unbelievable defensive team.
Speaker 1: They have a ton of athleticism. Jaren Jackson Jr. Looks
Speaker 1: like a d reincardnated. Desmond Baine is kind of like
Speaker 1: a weird wing defender, bigger, stronger version of Clay Thompson
Speaker 1: that's not quite as good offensively. And and just the
Speaker 1: crowd is incredible. And then John Moran sa bona fide
Speaker 1: top ten player in the NBA. I think I had
Speaker 1: him at ten when I ranked players the other day,
Speaker 1: and you know, he kind of he kind of has
Speaker 1: I've talked about this on the show before. John Marat
Speaker 1: has some Dwyane Wade potential. He's such an incredible athlete
Speaker 1: and he's going to be flying into the lane all
Speaker 1: the time in this postseason run. And you know, reffing
Speaker 1: can always go one way or another. There's fouls that
Speaker 1: occur on every single possession. It's really just amount about
Speaker 1: whether or not a ref feels like calling it. And
Speaker 1: we do see that fouls get called less often in
Speaker 1: the postseason, but we've also seen that's primarily with the
Speaker 1: Jankee stuff. They're less likely to call flopping in the postseason,
Speaker 1: They're less likely to call the James Hard and Joel
Speaker 1: Embiide you know, foul grifting type of stuff. But they
Speaker 1: are known to call stuff around the basket, just like
Speaker 1: you saw with Joannice last year and with all the
Speaker 1: foul calls that he was he was getting. So the
Speaker 1: wild card for the Grizzlies is if John rand Is
Speaker 1: gonna get a ton of calls on his drives to
Speaker 1: the basket, that just makes them a way more dynamic
Speaker 1: offensive team and makes them a lot scarier. The one
Speaker 1: big concern I have for them is their lack of
Speaker 1: secondary offensive creation. Like I've said many times on the show,
Speaker 1: Jaren Jackson Jr. Is a bit of a bull in
Speaker 1: the title shop China shops, So he's gonna struggle when
Speaker 1: teams really scout and take away. He's easy stuff. Yeah,
Speaker 1: if you leave him on an island, he's gonna run
Speaker 1: guys over and get layups. But no good playoff defense
Speaker 1: is gonna do that. And then Desmond Baine is more
Speaker 1: of a slasher than he is a creator. He's great
Speaker 1: flying off screens, he's great attacking close outs, he's great uh,
Speaker 1: shooting the three ball, but he's not like a stare
Speaker 1: you in the face and break you down off the
Speaker 1: drew ble and make plays type of guys. So that
Speaker 1: kind of leaves you with Dylan Brooks. And is Dylan
Speaker 1: Brooks gonna be productive enough as a secondary perimeter initiator
Speaker 1: to help spell John Moran. I don't think so, That's
Speaker 1: why I have them down at number three. The one
Speaker 1: interesting wrinkle with Memphis that makes them a little bit
Speaker 1: more interesting is home court. So even though their second
Speaker 1: in the West, they have a better record than anybody
Speaker 1: in the East, So outside of a matchup with Phoenix,
Speaker 1: they would have home court advantage in every single series.
Speaker 1: And as a result of that, when you look at
Speaker 1: Memphis and how crazy their home crowd is and the
Speaker 1: way that young players in particular feed off of home
Speaker 1: crowd energy, that kind of gives them another unique element.
Speaker 1: Number two at Golden State, not a ton to say
Speaker 1: about them because they've barely looked like themselves. They are
Speaker 1: the Golden State Warriors. Season has been cursed nearly to
Speaker 1: the same extent as the Lakers. The differences is they're
Speaker 1: well run. The Lakers have had injury issues, but They're
Speaker 1: also a very poorly run basketball team that actively sabotaged
Speaker 1: themselves in personnel, so when Lebron and a D went down,
Speaker 1: they literally turned into one of the worst basketball teams
Speaker 1: in the league. Golden State because they are very well run,
Speaker 1: They're loaded with wings, their skill developments awesome. They've brought
Speaker 1: a bunch of young players up through their system that
Speaker 1: have turned into productive NBA players. They've had terrible injury
Speaker 1: luck and basically have been incapable of keeping Steph and
Speaker 1: Draymond on the floor together for the last two thirds
Speaker 1: of the season, but in spite of that, they've still
Speaker 1: been good because they are a well run team. The
Speaker 1: main reason why I have them at number two and
Speaker 1: ahead of Memphis is because we know their defense is
Speaker 1: great and the Steph Clay Draymond trio is a proven
Speaker 1: playoff formula. Those guys are gonna be comfortable in every
Speaker 1: playoff series. Yes, it's gonna suck that they're gonna have
Speaker 1: to kind of wrap this all together over the course
Speaker 1: of the last week of the season, but those guys
Speaker 1: have so many reps playing with each other that if
Speaker 1: there's one trio in the NBA that could do it,
Speaker 1: it would be them last, but not least, the Phoenix Suns.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna spend too much time on them because
Speaker 1: I've railed on them NonStop on the show over the
Speaker 1: course the last couple of weeks. They are the most
Speaker 1: talented team in the NBA. Not just they're not as
Speaker 1: top heavy as some of these other teams in the league.
Speaker 1: No one's saying Devin Booker and Chris Paul are as
Speaker 1: good as as Janice or Lebron or Kevin Grant or
Speaker 1: anything like that, but what they are what they are
Speaker 1: is down the roster by far the most talented team
Speaker 1: in the NBA. Chris Paul and Devin Booker can hold
Speaker 1: their own in Superstar matchups, but it's also Michael Bridges
Speaker 1: and how good of a close out attacking wing and
Speaker 1: argue he's He's been in conversations for Defensive Player of
Speaker 1: the Year this year. That's how good Michal Bridges has been.
Speaker 1: DeAndre Ayton is way better than what he's been asked
Speaker 1: to do with this Son's team. He has a level
Speaker 1: that he can get to that he's been holding in reserve.
Speaker 1: I think he deserves a max contract. Cam Johnson is
Speaker 1: incredible campaign is incredible. They have a big defensive wing
Speaker 1: and Jake Crowder that they can throw up people. JaVale
Speaker 1: McGee is an awesome backup center. They're far and away
Speaker 1: the most talented team in the NBA. Devin Booker has
Speaker 1: been playing so well lately you could argue he's right
Speaker 1: there with John Morant competing for the tenth best player
Speaker 1: in the NBA. CP three looks great. He looks way
Speaker 1: better than James Harden the other day. And they absolutely
Speaker 1: destroy teams in crunch time, but like like lapping everybody
Speaker 1: else in the rest of the field, which would argue
Speaker 1: that they even have a better punch than the what
Speaker 1: they've shown for the vast majority of the season that
Speaker 1: they've been reserving for crunch time scenario. So I think
Speaker 1: the Sons are the most likely to win. I put
Speaker 1: Golden State right behind them, Memphis right behind there, then Dallas,
Speaker 1: then a big drop off, and then I'd go with
Speaker 1: the Lakers. With all the junk at the bottom of
Speaker 1: the West, they're the one team that has Lebron and
Speaker 1: a d in their back pocket. That's why I give
Speaker 1: them a very slim chance as our fifth most likely
Speaker 1: team in the West to win the title. Al Right, guys,
Speaker 1: that is all I have for tonight. I appreciate you
Speaker 1: guys always for supporting the show. We will be back
Speaker 1: on Thursday. I will see you guys in a couple
Speaker 1: of days. The volume