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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. We want to give the ft credit.

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Speaker 1: They have come a long way from where they were

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Speaker 1: in the early nineties when they didn't even communicate anything

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Speaker 1: to the market. Then remains the most important single location currency,

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Speaker 1: that together with Aussie which I think is the proxy

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Speaker 1: for all of Asia's growth. Ultimately, we still are going

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Speaker 1: to have a crisis at some point. It'll be a

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Speaker 1: big one. And that's where the new tools and dot

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Speaker 1: Frank the title to the resolution Authority, that's where they

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Speaker 1: come in. Bloomberg Surveillance, your link to the world of economics, finance,

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Speaker 1: and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone, Michael mckeeam

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene from our newspareau in Washington this Super Tuesday

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg with coverage all through the day on Super Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: of course, Mark Halperin and John Heilman. This evening a

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Speaker 1: special two hour with all due respect, look for that

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Speaker 1: on television on radio. The market's quite essent. To use

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Speaker 1: a word from Helen Greenspan, uh, this morning features up fifteen, down,

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Speaker 1: features up one nineteen. UM. I guess the one thing

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Speaker 1: I would point out is two stents spread still under

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Speaker 1: a hundred basis points um. This morning Bloomberg Surveillance brought

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Speaker 1: you by Cone residuc Accounting, Tax Advisory and the affordable

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Speaker 1: housing industry. Your business needs transformative advice from the industry

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Speaker 1: leading experts at Cone Resnick. Find out why at Cone

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Speaker 1: Resnik dot com. Michael, what do you have? Well, first,

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Speaker 1: let me remind everybody that all those of this is

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Speaker 1: Super Tuesday. It is also the day that the automakers

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Speaker 1: report their February sales. Fiat Chrysler as usual, first out

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Speaker 1: of the box sales up by eleven point eight percent.

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Speaker 1: The consensus forecast was for up nine point two percent,

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Speaker 1: so Fiat Chrysler, as they often do, beating estimates to

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Speaker 1: start the day. We'll see how that turns out as

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Speaker 1: the day goes on. Jason Furman was with us, the

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Speaker 1: chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors. He had

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Speaker 1: to race to the White House, but he wanted to

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Speaker 1: hear our next guest. He did. Indeed, Adam pose it,

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Speaker 1: of course from the Peterson Institute is the president of

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Speaker 1: the Peterson Institute for International Economics, former policymaker for the

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Speaker 1: Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, and it is that

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Speaker 1: hat we kind of want you to put on this

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Speaker 1: morning at him because yesterday Tom and I spoke with

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Speaker 1: Alan Greenspan about his views of the economy, and I

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Speaker 1: have never heard him so cautious and perhaps so do

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Speaker 1: her about the prospects. He says that there is just

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Speaker 1: so much uncertainty out there that it is very very

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Speaker 1: hard to make a coherent forecast for what's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: And he worries, given China, given oil, and given the

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Speaker 1: political climate, that we could be in his words, in

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Speaker 1: trouble Well, Michael, thank you guys for having me in

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Speaker 1: a week when you had Jason, who was a rock

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Speaker 1: star and obviously the step chairman. It's very gracious to

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Speaker 1: be part of it, um I I. You know, he

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Speaker 1: has the forecasting insights. But there's so much going on

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Speaker 1: that is still consistent with the optimistic view that Chairman

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Speaker 1: Greenspan used to give us, that we live in a

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Speaker 1: world which is more and more weightless. Intangibles are such

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Speaker 1: an important part of the economy. Yes, the productivity growth

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Speaker 1: is not triumph the way it should be, but there

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Speaker 1: still is some innovation going on that we are less

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Speaker 1: energy dependent than we ever used to be. He didn't

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Speaker 1: foresee the the obviously the fracking in the US, but

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Speaker 1: the idea that we are much less energy dependent economy

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Speaker 1: in the sense of not meeting importance of the same sort.

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Speaker 1: But when we start talking on certainty, my collegu side

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Speaker 1: Pearson Institute are publishing later this week something we call

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Speaker 1: reality check for the world economy. We think that people

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Speaker 1: have have leapfrogged what is reasonable into excessive worry. That

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Speaker 1: China has a floor under it, both in terms of

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Speaker 1: policy and the actual growth that energy markets, that the

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Speaker 1: client and oil prices is on net clearly a good

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Speaker 1: for the world economy, despite recent interpretations that the US economy,

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Speaker 1: while probably it's slightly elevated risk of recession, remains very

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Speaker 1: much not in recession. And so I don't want to complacent.

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Speaker 1: There are things the world should be worrying about. But

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Speaker 1: it's just not as bad a world if some people

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Speaker 1: are saying. When you say it's not as bad a

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Speaker 1: world as some people are saying, how good you know,

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Speaker 1: looking at the other direction, how good is that? Because

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Speaker 1: people don't feel it, it seems that seems to be

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Speaker 1: fueling a lot of the political discontent. No, I think

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Speaker 1: that's a fair point, Michael, especially on on Super Tuesday. Um.

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Speaker 1: Although there again, that's less about the economy and about

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Speaker 1: who gets what I mean, the very sad cases. A

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Speaker 1: lot of the terrible politics we're seeing in the U

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Speaker 1: S and in Western Europe have to do with basically

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Speaker 1: white males seeing their relative status go down, especially less

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Speaker 1: educated white males, And that's less about economic failures and

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Speaker 1: more about adjustment. Doesn't mean it's not real, doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: it's not serious, but it means from an investment point

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Speaker 1: of view, you have to look at us a political risk,

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Speaker 1: not that the economics is working. But more importantly, you know,

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Speaker 1: when you say is it better? No, you've had on

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Speaker 1: our mutual friend Muhammad al Arian he coined phrase new

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Speaker 1: no normal. I think there's some real value to that.

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Speaker 1: That part of the thing is the US, Western Europe, China,

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Speaker 1: Japan are all growing at slower rates than they used to.

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Speaker 1: But in a sense that's the good news. These are

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Speaker 1: mostly sustainable rates. They're not built on huge amounts of

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Speaker 1: leverage on the China still doing a bit, and not

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Speaker 1: built among huge amounts of debt. And sorry, no no,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sorry. It's just I think it's an important

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Speaker 1: insight that low growth is expected from where you sit

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Speaker 1: at the Peterson Institute. Is America getting used to low growth?

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Speaker 1: Or as part of the angst on this Super Tuesday

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Speaker 1: is it's to present GDP and we're not going to

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Speaker 1: take this anymore. That's a really good point comment. I

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Speaker 1: think that's right. And you know, twenty years ago, before

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Speaker 1: he was world famous, Paul Krugman wrote a book called

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Speaker 1: The Age of Diminished Expectations, which is a great title.

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Speaker 1: And what we're seeing now is is the backlash with

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Speaker 1: those expectations have come true. We're seeing the backlash as

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Speaker 1: you indicate, But I mean it's not just about the

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Speaker 1: actual growth level. As the data came out just the

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Speaker 1: other day. You know, the the U S worker hasn't

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Speaker 1: been getting fairly paid for what productivity growth there has been.

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Speaker 1: There's been you know, very large amounts of money going

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Speaker 1: to capital and also very low growth in wages for

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Speaker 1: a long time. And that's again that's not because of

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Speaker 1: the two percent growth. It's an excuse. We there are

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Speaker 1: ways of dealing with that. Do you assume that the

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Speaker 1: growth that we need comes from technological progress or can

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Speaker 1: we manage and manipulate ourselves to a better trajectory. I'm

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Speaker 1: sorry to be getting so many greatest hits of other

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Speaker 1: people today, but you know, sometimes people get it right.

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Speaker 1: Larry Summers had his column a couple of weeks ago

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Speaker 1: talking about cheap lunches versus free lunches. One thing which

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Speaker 1: you've heard me say before, Tom, is you know we're

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Speaker 1: throwing away eight percent of GDP on healthcare in ways

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Speaker 1: that no other country does. And if we got more

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Speaker 1: efficient about that, that enough to buy as ten years

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Speaker 1: of improved growth or longer. Uh. Similarly, the under use

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Speaker 1: of a lot of our young people, I mean, Bertie

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Speaker 1: Sanders is vastly exaggerating the extent of youth unemployment, but

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Speaker 1: under employment under utilization is real, and we take advantage

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Speaker 1: of that. So there are ways to grow, even if

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Speaker 1: the trend rate of growth doesn't have to be that high.

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Speaker 1: If we speak to Judd greg of New Hampshire or

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Speaker 1: Jason Furman working with the President, obviously with a affiliation

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Speaker 1: to the Democratic Party, a common ground they have is

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Speaker 1: we need growth and we need a public policy to

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Speaker 1: drive it forward. That's what they differ. What is the

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Speaker 1: Peterson Institute prescription to get the polarity of our politics

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Speaker 1: onto a common ground. Does it just take a crisis? God,

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Speaker 1: I hope not. It would be a terrible commentary and

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Speaker 1: a terrible thing in reality if it takes an overt

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Speaker 1: crisis to get agreement or get progress, and then you're

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Speaker 1: risking things going crazy, because sometimes Mussolini comes up in

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Speaker 1: a crisis. No, we think that we in there. He's

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Speaker 1: learned from Fred Burke's But but look, I mean the

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Speaker 1: growth things that have to be done. There is room

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Speaker 1: for fiscal policy in the US, as I'm sure Jason

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Speaker 1: spoke about, and it can take the form of public investment.

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Speaker 1: Not all of public investment is going to be wonderful

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Speaker 1: immediate payoff. But just like the private investors on your

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Speaker 1: program to talk about, you need a good portfolio. And

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Speaker 1: that's what we need is a good, strong portfolio of

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Speaker 1: public investment. We need to reinvest in our community colleges

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Speaker 1: and our our public sector education and the best parts

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Speaker 1: of our private sector education. Instead of ripping people off

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Speaker 1: with false claims, give them the actual skills and training

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Speaker 1: that they need. And in the short term, frankly, it

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Speaker 1: would be good to sign the Transpacific Partnership deal. It's

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Speaker 1: not going to be huge, but it's going to add growth,

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Speaker 1: and it's going to add a few tenths percent of growth,

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Speaker 1: which is meaningful when you're only growing at two percent.

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Speaker 1: Thank Jerry Brown ran for president on a platform of limits,

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Speaker 1: that we were at the limits of growth and the

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Speaker 1: limits of society's ability to make things better and we

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Speaker 1: had to learn to live with it. Was he just premature?

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Speaker 1: Was he wrong? Uh? Can someone do something to actually

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Speaker 1: change the outlook long term? We can, definitely, Michael, I

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Speaker 1: mean Jerry Brown was premature running for president because the

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Speaker 1: Jerry Brown of today might be a good candidate for president.

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Speaker 1: But the limits to growth stuff in the seventies that

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Speaker 1: you're referring to that many people spoke about, was I

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Speaker 1: think wrong. It was the idea that humans would just

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Speaker 1: quickly run up against population constraints, energy constraints, food constraints.

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Speaker 1: And going back to what Tom said, innovation has come reorganization.

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Speaker 1: Innovation isn't just about technology. It's about better administration, better organization,

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Speaker 1: better work habits as well as technology, and things have

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Speaker 1: changed and we have gotten things better. I'm sorry to

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Speaker 1: sound raw. Raw. One has to take very seriously, as

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Speaker 1: I know you do. Robert Gordon a slight Another recent

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Speaker 1: star Robert Gordon's really fascinating work on the are we

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Speaker 1: in the midst of the technological slowdown, but there are

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Speaker 1: still meaningful things you can do. There's still low hanging

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Speaker 1: fruit and reform in utilization of underused resources, in efficiency,

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Speaker 1: and frankly in opening up to the world. Well an

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Speaker 1: agenda to look forward to after Super Wednesday. Adam Posing

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Speaker 1: is with the Peterson Institute. Dr Poson, thank you uh

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Speaker 1: so much. We will continue this conversation from Washington to

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Speaker 1: try to give you a mix of people away from

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Speaker 1: the st area, away from the horse race coming up.

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Speaker 1: We are thrilled to speak to you from the gentleman

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Speaker 1: from Minnesota. Then Webber will join us on the state

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Speaker 1: of his Republican Party from Washington. This is Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Now let's check in with Michael bar and get the

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Speaker 1: latest world of national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, thank you

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Speaker 1: very much. Voters will head to the polls day for

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Speaker 1: Super Tuesday primaries. Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Hillary

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Speaker 1: Clinton are hoping to stretch their leads. Democrat Bernie Sanders

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Speaker 1: and Republican Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubil are looking

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Speaker 1: to blunt that momentum. Bloomberg will have NonStop Super Tuesday

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Speaker 1: coverage throughout the night, starting with a special edition of

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Speaker 1: With All Due Respect starting at five pm All Street time.

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Speaker 1: The Pentagon once thirty four point seven billion dollars through

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Speaker 1: one for cyber security. Defense Secretary Ash Carter says it

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Speaker 1: is in part to be up the offensive military capabilities,

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Speaker 1: including the fight against the Islamic State Group. Funeral services

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Speaker 1: will be held today for Ashley Gwinden, the Virginia police

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Speaker 1: officer who was shot and killed on her first day

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Speaker 1: on the job. Global News twenty four hours a day,

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Speaker 1: powered by our two hundred journalists and more than a

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Speaker 1: hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world. I am

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Speaker 1: Michael Barn, Mike Tom Michael Barr, Thank you so much

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Speaker 1: from Washington and support of Bloomberg One f m Michael

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