1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is 5 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier, 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money 8 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and 9 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage 10 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most 11 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for? 12 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody, 13 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: Happy Thursday. We have an amazing show for everybody today 14 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: when we have crystal Indeed we do. We have some 15 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: new detail, starting to understand a few more of the 16 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 1: pieces of what led up to that raid down at 17 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,920 Speaker 1: mar Lago, what the sort of whether there's a grand 18 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:10,679 Speaker 1: scheme or not. There appears not to be a grand 19 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 1: scheme from the federal government, how they got there, all 20 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: that stuff. We're starting to get the reporting on it, 21 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: so we will break all of that down for you, 22 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: and also some additional subpoenas cell phone seised of a 23 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 1: member of Congress, some Pennsylvania fake elector types who also 24 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: have received subpoena, So get into all of those details 25 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: and more. We also have new numbers on inflation which 26 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 1: are potentially good, but of course the White House had 27 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: to take that and like completely gaslight and overplay their 28 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 1: hand and all of that stuff. So we'll take you 29 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: inside of these still mixed signals in terms of where 30 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: the economy stands. We had some elections this week and 31 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: very interesting tea leaves there yet another indication that the 32 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:56,279 Speaker 1: Democratic enthusiasm is definitely up. This is a very different 33 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: ballgame and landscape than what we were looking at before 34 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: the Dobs decision. So we have those details for you, 35 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 1: some new indications of exactly who the GOP is still with. 36 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 1: Of course they all been the ney to Trump immediately, 37 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: every one of the supposed challengers, contenders who was going 38 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: to go up against him now they all fell in 39 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 1: line instantly. There's also some big developments out of Ukraine, 40 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 1: and we have a new guest on the show to 41 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 1: break down just how potentially dangerous this situation with China 42 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: and Taiwan is for US and for the world, and 43 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: how Nancy Pelosi's visit really exacerbated all of that. Before 44 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:33,639 Speaker 1: we dive into the details of what is going on 45 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: with that FBI raid of maur A Lago though live show, 46 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: Live show in Atlanta. Reminder, let's put this up there 47 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: on the screen, live show, September sixteenth. We are coming 48 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 1: to Atlanta, as I mentioned, So those large ticket purchases 49 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: that are going through I've begun, so there is going 50 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 1: to be very limited number of tickets that are left 51 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: for the general public. Highly advise you to go in 52 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 1: and buy those tickets so we can officially have our 53 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 1: sellout date one month ahead of the schedule, which right, 54 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 1: we're happy next week it's going to be exactly one month, 55 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: exactly one month. So link is down in the description. 56 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:04,520 Speaker 1: We would love to see you guys there. We have 57 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: a great show. Yeah, it's going to be really fun. Okay, 58 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 1: So a pretty bombshell piece of reporting here, very significant 59 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 1: in terms of understanding this raid and what led up 60 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: to it. A lot of details that I want to 61 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 1: get into here. Let's go ahead and through this Newsweek 62 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: tear sheet up on the screen. So they have the 63 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:23,359 Speaker 1: scoop exclusive and informer told the FBI what docs Trump 64 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: was hiding and where. They say that the raid on 65 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 1: Mar A Lago was based largely on information from an 66 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 1: FBI confidential human source, one who was able to identify 67 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: what classified document's former President Trump was still hiding and 68 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: even the location of those documents. Two senior government officials 69 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 1: told Newsweek, as we speculated and many others had speculated 70 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: at the time, it was deliberately timed, according to this report, 71 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 1: to occur when the former president was away. And this 72 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: is the part that I mean, I just almost can't 73 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: believe it, except you should never underestimate the level of 74 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: bureaucratic and competence and myopia and like bubble dwelling. They 75 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: thought this wasn't going to be a big deal. They 76 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 1: thought if they did it when Trump was away, then 77 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 1: it'd be like we ask just a low key rate 78 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 1: of the president's residence. I'm sure this won't cause a 79 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: massive political media explosion. So what they say is FBI 80 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 1: decision makers in Washington and Miami thought that denying the 81 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 1: former president a photo opportunity or a platform from which 82 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:29,000 Speaker 1: to grand stand or to attempt apport the raid would 83 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 1: lower the profile of the event. One of the sources 84 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: that they spoke to says they were seeking to avoid 85 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:38,679 Speaker 1: any media circus. So even though everything made sense bureaucratically 86 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: and the FBI feared that the documents might be destroyed, 87 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 1: they also created the very firestorm they sought to avoid 88 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 1: in ignoring the fallout. I mean, I don't know how 89 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,960 Speaker 1: many people with level three IQs thought that this would 90 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 1: not be a big deal, no matter how you went 91 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: about it. The affidavit to obtain the search warrant, the 92 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: intelligent sources contained abundant and persuasive detail that Trump continued 93 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 1: to possess relevant records and violation of federal law, and 94 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:08,359 Speaker 1: that investigators had sufficient information to prove that those records 95 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 1: were located at mar A Lago, including the detail that 96 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 1: they were contained in a specific safe in a specific room. 97 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: So this goes back to they had depended heavily on 98 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 1: a confidential informant, must be someone who is fairly close 99 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: to Trump. A lot of speculation in Trump world right 100 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: now about who that could be. But down to the 101 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 1: specific room, specific safe where they expected these documents to 102 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: be held in violation, you know, it looks like Trump said, oh, 103 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: we gave you everything, and didn't really give them everything. 104 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: Was lying to the feds. Theer's now reported that he 105 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: and his lawyers had met previously with the FBI about 106 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 1: these documents, and they had apparently good reason to believe 107 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: that he was still retaining and concealing additional documents that 108 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,279 Speaker 1: should be part of the presidential record. Few more pieces 109 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: here In terms of who authorized the raid, They say 110 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 1: that FBI Director Christopher Ray ultimately gave his go ahead 111 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: to conduct the raid. They say it's really a case 112 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 1: of the bureau misreading the impact. They also suggest in 113 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 1: this piece that it may not have gone all the 114 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 1: way to Merrick Garland. Now, that could be some sort 115 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,719 Speaker 1: of ass covering or Merritt Garland trying to keep him 116 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: separate from it. But you know what I really take 117 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,839 Speaker 1: from all of this is there were some there was 118 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: some theorizing, and I thought, with good basis and good rationale, 119 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: that the documents were kind of a pretext to go 120 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 1: in and get what they were really interested in, was 121 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: like the January sixth stuff. That does not appear to 122 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 1: be the case. And I think there's a lot of 123 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 1: because this happened, because you know, Trump, We're going to 124 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: get to Trump pleating the fifth. On this other case, 125 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: you have the tax returns thing happen. You have this 126 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: congrementsman whose cell phone was seized. All in the same week. 127 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 1: There was once again this sense of like, there's a 128 00:06:56,400 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: grand scheme. Merrick Garland has this whole thing and out 129 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:04,719 Speaker 1: this is step one of this massive grand plan to 130 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: ultimately indict and take down Trump. And that is not 131 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 1: the case. I mean, I believe it's now at current 132 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 1: indicate that, Yeah, I'm I'm fairly convinced. I mean, you 133 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: should usually bet on the side of the people in Washington. 134 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 1: Aren't some five dhess players, you know, with the thinking 135 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: ten moves ahead. They were sort of focused on this 136 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 1: one narrow issue where they feel very felt very confident 137 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: that there was, you know, wrongdoing. They thought, this is 138 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: the procedure we normally follow, So we're going to normally 139 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 1: follow this procedure. We'll give him the grace of being 140 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: out of town so we can do it while he's 141 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: away and hopefully avoid a media circus. As silly as 142 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: it is for them to have thought that that would 143 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: be the case, it looks to me like this truly 144 00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 1: was narrowly focused on these records, and to the extent 145 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: you know, there are other investigations going on, which we'll 146 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: get into. But I do actually think that they're separate 147 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: and this is not part of some grand federal government 148 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: plan to take down Whenever you need to bet on 149 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: master plans by the FBI or bureaucratic incompetence, I know 150 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: which one I'm going to betting on. That was my 151 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: secret suspicion. But now we actually have a decent amount 152 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: of reporting in order to indicate that. You also see 153 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 1: in terms of the discussions from the Trump lawyers themselves, 154 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 1: they say that they have held discussions with the Justice 155 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: Department since the spring over these materials at mar Lago, 156 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: that they had actually searched through three to two to 157 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: three dozen boxes in the basement storage area hunting for 158 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: the documents. And also they said that currently the DOJ 159 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 1: had said, well, part of the problem is you're not 160 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: securing these properly. So they actually went ahead and added again, 161 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: according to Trump's lawyer, they added a lock there which 162 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: was then breached by the FBI whenever they took it. 163 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 1: I mean, if the reporting here is true and there's 164 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 1: no current you know, there's not a lot of evidence 165 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: in order to dispute it. Nobody's coming out and saying 166 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: that this is some sort of master plan would certainly 167 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: indicate exactly as you said. I would also refer people 168 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: back to our interview with Bradley Moss. One of the 169 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 1: things he highlighted is they have to prove a selective 170 00:08:56,400 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: and willful want in order to violate the president Records 171 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: Act for a prosecutorial case to be made and to 172 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 1: be made not only to indict before the grand jury, 173 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 1: but then you have to prove basically beyond a reasonable 174 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:12,079 Speaker 1: doubt in court that they willfully tried to circumvent this. 175 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 1: This also could be a matter of incompetence both on 176 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 1: the Trump team side and it could be a matter 177 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: of incompetence on the FBI side. So they have ignited 178 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: a massive political firestorm over what appears to be a 179 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: fight over presidential records. And we'll just be honest, like, 180 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 1: in terms of the political fallout, I don't think that 181 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: was worth it, you know whatsoever. By the way, I 182 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: also have no idea was in these documents, which ironically 183 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: we're almost certain to be learned, like we're going to 184 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: learn the contours of this. Now it's such a high 185 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: profile case, which would probably diminish the classification on it 186 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 1: in itself. I'm not saying that the rage isn't justified 187 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: on its own, Yeah, And I'm saying obviously, of course 188 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 1: you have to consider it in the political ramification. Yeah. 189 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: I mean, I think the political piece, to me is 190 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: debatable whether it's quote worthord or not. There is some 191 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: reporting that the DJ is like like at the highest 192 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 1: levels is like, what were you thinking? And I do 193 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 1: think the fact that it was done apparently without really 194 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: understanding how extraordinary this would be seen and what a 195 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 1: nuclear bomb it would set off in terms of like 196 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: the beata's focus on it, and the way Republicans would 197 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 1: seize on it and all of those things. Look if 198 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: you or I took classified documents and then met with 199 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:25,959 Speaker 1: the FBI and FBI was like you need to give 200 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: those back, and we're like totally, and we give you 201 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: one of them, and then continued to hide and conceal 202 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,080 Speaker 1: and lie about the other ones, they would be busting 203 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 1: down our door and they would be doing it a 204 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: lot sooner, and they would not give us the courtesy 205 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 1: of like, let's do it when you're away and try 206 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: to downplay it. So, based on what we know, and 207 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: also just given what we know about the sloppiness and 208 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 1: like cavalier nature of Trump and his relationship to the law, 209 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 1: I have no doubt that he is in violation of 210 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:54,960 Speaker 1: the law here. I think it's very unlikely that he 211 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: totally was in the clear and followed the correct procedures 212 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: and wasn't still retaining any documents and wouldn't blatantly lie 213 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 1: to the FBI. There's also an irony here because because 214 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: of the Hillary Clinton email scandal, Trump himself signed into 215 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 1: law making the Presidential Records Act and making this a 216 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: much more stringent effect offense. He signed a law in 217 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 1: twenty eighteen that made it a felony to remove and 218 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: retain classified documents. So there's a great irony here too 219 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 1: that he's now, you know, in violation. It appears of 220 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 1: the very law that he strengthened in this partisan like 221 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 1: we're going to go after Hillary Clinton thing. The politics 222 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: of it and whether it was quote unquote worth it, 223 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:42,839 Speaker 1: I think it very much remains to be seen how 224 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 1: this all plays out. You know. I do think that 225 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 1: there's some who are very convinced this is going to 226 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 1: nore to the Republican's benefit, because you know people are 227 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: going to see it as an overreach. I am not 228 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: as con I am not as convinced of that case, 229 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 1: because I think if you're talking about the Republican base, yes, 230 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: this solidifies his control on the GOP. If we're talking 231 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: about Normans who are sick of his bullshit and like 232 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,320 Speaker 1: it always being some crisis and whatever, I don't know 233 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: that it has the same impact. It's possible. It's just 234 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: hard to say at this point. Yeah, I mean, I'm 235 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: focusing a lot about this on my monologue. On his face, 236 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: I think you'd probably rewrite. But as we always know, 237 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: there's going to be massive overreach, and this will well 238 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:22,719 Speaker 1: not overreached just by the FBI. I'm saying, also by 239 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: the opponents MSNBC trying to cast this is another thing, 240 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: and that actually generally moves to Trump's benefits. So I 241 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: have no idea. Yea, on his face, the reporting does 242 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: indicate that that's where they are. You also said this, 243 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: let's put this up there on the screen Axios, saying 244 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: that Trump World's speculating that they do have a flipped 245 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 1: aid after the FBI search, likely as a result of 246 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,319 Speaker 1: the warrant. And that is another thing which many people 247 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: have been highlighting, not just me Trump, I mean, look, 248 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: this is in dispute. Eric Trump gave an interview to 249 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 1: Fox News where he claims that the warrant was never 250 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 1: given to them by the FBI. That would be against 251 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 1: standard procedure. We don't know if that's true. Again, is 252 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: not actually said whether that's true or not. Standard procedure 253 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 1: would say that Trump and his lawyers did receive a 254 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 1: copy of that search warrant, and if that's true, they 255 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 1: should release it. They can make a public Yeah, exactly, 256 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,319 Speaker 1: release it, and they would be able to show us 257 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: very specifically what the FBI was looking for, as you 258 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: said and indicated in a newsweek these specific areas. It 259 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 1: would actually probably it's possible that they're hiding it, because 260 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,560 Speaker 1: it would only confirm that they do have a mole 261 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 1: inside of their organization or somebody very close to the president. 262 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 1: But as as we had said, Trump could also just 263 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: release this tomorrow as if he did actually receive the 264 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 1: search warrant, and we would learn a hell of a 265 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: lot more about what actually happened. There's one other thing 266 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: I want to say about the you know, the politics 267 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 1: of this and whether not it was justified, whether it 268 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: was a good idea, whether it was just all of 269 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 1: those things. It is obviously political. It has political implications, 270 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,480 Speaker 1: the decision to serve a search warrant and raid mar 271 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: A Lago, no doubt about it. But it also was 272 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: a political decision to look at facts that clearly say 273 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: there is a clear violation of the law, and if 274 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 1: it was an ordinary citizen, we would treat it this way, 275 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: but because it's the present and because it's fraught, we're 276 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 1: not going to That is a less sort of media 277 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 1: explosive political decision, but that's also a political decision. So 278 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 1: there's sort of no avoiding making some sort of political 279 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: decision here. If in fact they were very persuaded, which 280 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 1: they appear to have been, that he was in very 281 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: clear and sort of like intentional violation of this law, 282 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: so I think that's important to keep of course. I mean, 283 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: one of the things that always pissed me off about 284 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: the Hillary cases. I was like, look, any average citizen, 285 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: you're going to jail for what Hillary did. It was obvious, 286 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: like it was just so clear. I'm like, if you 287 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: did this and you're a normal person. We talked previously 288 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 1: on our show about the Navy guy who took a 289 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 1: picture of the nuclear submarine. He didn't mean anything by it, 290 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 1: and he ended up in jail and then or there, 291 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: I mean, reality winner, look at what happened to her. 292 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: I mean she literally just photocopied some documents and sent 293 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: it over to the inter She was in jail for 294 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: like years. So look, I'm generally in favor of equal 295 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: application of the law. I'm only speaking in terms of 296 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: how this is being politically coded and how the FBI 297 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 1: ultimately came to this decision. If it is true, they 298 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 1: didn't think it was going to have political ramifications, and 299 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: then there's just a bunch of idiots. And I think 300 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 1: that that is really that I think you could always 301 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 1: better off. I talked to someone who's very in the 302 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 1: know with this, who actually had some pieces of this 303 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: report as well, but could only get a single source, 304 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 1: and what he was saying to me is, you really 305 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: can't understand how much of a bubble these people operating 306 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 1: like they literally work inside of a skiff, right, Like 307 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: they're literally in a bubble, and so they're just looking 308 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: at here's the process that we follow and the National 309 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: Archives requests us to look into this, and we did it, 310 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: and we found this evidence, and we took it to 311 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: a grand jury and they said, yes, we believe it, 312 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,359 Speaker 1: and we took it to like just following the stepsun 313 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: chunk chunk and really not thinking about the political landscape. Now, 314 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: that doesn't mean ultimately they made the wrong decision, because again, 315 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: you know, I do believe in equal application, I was 316 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: very critical of Hillary on the email thing, so it's 317 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 1: not like being inconsistent here. And you know, certainly people 318 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: who were very concerned about the Hillary thing at the time, 319 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: there are many of them who are now like Records 320 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: who cares no big deal. But I think at this 321 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: point what we can what looks pretty clear, is that 322 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: this is not step one of some grand plan to 323 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: take down Trump. That doesn't mean Trump's not going to 324 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 1: be indicted. It doesn't mean that there won't be charges 325 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: out of Georgia or out of the DC grand jury 326 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 1: with regards to January six. That is all still very 327 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: much on the table, and the next thing we're going 328 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 1: to talk about is some of the steps that they've 329 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: taken forward on that. But I am convinced at this 330 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: point that this was kind of a one off focus 331 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: just on this specific issue that wasn't connected to some 332 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 1: broader plan. Yeah. I mean, look, that's where all things 333 00:16:58,520 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: currently lead. Why don't we go ahead and talk then 334 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 1: about this January sixth related investigation which some interesting development 335 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: is going to put this up there on the screen. 336 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 1: Representative Scott Perry, he's a member of Congress, says that 337 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: FBI actually seized his cell phone. This is one day 338 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 1: after the mar A Lago raid. The circumstances of the 339 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 1: seizure are pretty interesting. He actually had just gotten off 340 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,560 Speaker 1: of a flight and he was approached by FBI agents 341 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 1: who took possession of his cell phone. Here's what he says. 342 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 1: Quote this morning, while traveling with my family, three FBI 343 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: agents visited me and seized my cell phone. They made 344 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: no attempt to contact my lawyer, who would have made 345 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:32,879 Speaker 1: arrangements for them to have my phone if it was 346 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 1: their wish. I'm outraged, though not surprised, the FBI, under 347 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: the direction of Merrick Garland's DOJ, would seize the phone 348 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 1: of a sitting member of Congress. My phone contains info 349 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: about my legislative political activities, my personal and private discussions 350 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 1: with my wife, family, constituents, and friends. None of this 351 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 1: is the government's business representative. Perry actually asserted in a 352 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:54,240 Speaker 1: statement that connected this to the presidential raid in mar Lago, saying, 353 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: the DOJ chose this unnecessary and aggressive action instead of 354 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:02,119 Speaker 1: simply contacting my attorneys. Bob these kinds of banana republic Thanks. 355 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,639 Speaker 1: Now you would ask, then, well why and who is 356 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 1: mister Perry. So Congressman Perry, five term congressman, long term 357 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 1: loyal Trump ally to our purposes, though he is most 358 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 1: connected to the false elector scheme out of the state 359 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania. So let's go ahead and put this next 360 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 1: one up there. The Post actually did a decent job 361 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 1: who is Scott Perry? What they run down here is 362 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 1: that Scott Perry, the Pennsylvania Republican, was one of the 363 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:32,439 Speaker 1: major boosters of some of the election fraud claims, and 364 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 1: part of the reason that they may have seized his 365 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,479 Speaker 1: cell phone is actually probably in relation to the criminal 366 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: investigation into the use of fake electors to try and 367 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,679 Speaker 1: overturn the Biden victory and to present a false elector slate. 368 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: You'll remember that Doug Mastriano was also involved in a 369 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,360 Speaker 1: lot of this and so not only was Perry one 370 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 1: of the people who was elevating some of these things, 371 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: it seems now that he was involved in the actual 372 00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:01,159 Speaker 1: plan to try and get that Department of Justice official, 373 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Clark, to be elevated then to the acting Attorney 374 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:08,399 Speaker 1: General slot, so that mister Clark could then undertake procedures 375 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: to actually declare the Pennsylvania ballot results invalid or at 376 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: least throw them in some sort of in court proceeding 377 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:19,120 Speaker 1: which would allow the false electors plan to proceed. All 378 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: of this, though, traces back to the very difficult charge 379 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,119 Speaker 1: that we laid out from the very beginning, which is 380 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 1: to try and prove a seditious conspiracy charge is extraordinarily difficult. 381 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:32,719 Speaker 1: We have seen in the past that DOJ and the 382 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: FBI have not been able to prove it. Now that 383 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 1: is what they have charged the Oath Keepers and some 384 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,439 Speaker 1: of the Proud Boys with, to be clear, So we 385 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: are going through active litigation, but it's very difficult to 386 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: prove in a court of law, and ultimately that's really 387 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: the only way they be able to move forward with 388 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 1: an actual indictment against any of He's representatives. Crystal. So 389 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 1: I think that it is much less likely that they 390 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,680 Speaker 1: went for seditious conspiracy, which, as you said, they charged 391 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,720 Speaker 1: the Proud Boys and the Oathkeepers with, and I read through, 392 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 1: you know, both of those indictments, and they were they 393 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 1: had direct text messages of them plotting to bring weapons, 394 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,760 Speaker 1: and they had you know, very like specific laid out plans. 395 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: You can question whether how much of it was LARPing, 396 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,119 Speaker 1: how much of it was serious, how likely it was 397 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:18,879 Speaker 1: that they were going to accomplish their goals, but they 398 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 1: had specific planning involving like violent means basically in order 399 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: to charge seditious conspiracy more likely if Trump or other 400 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,399 Speaker 1: high level officials, including these people who Scott Perry and 401 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: these other Pennsylvania Republicans who have now been subpoenaed as well, 402 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 1: more likely you would see something like the obstruction of 403 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 1: a federal proceeding or whatever that one is called. Or 404 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: you might see the conspiracy to defraud the government. Isn't 405 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: that what the other one is called? So there are 406 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,159 Speaker 1: other potential charges. Now that last one, and I might 407 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,399 Speaker 1: be getting the name of it wrong, but that one, 408 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 1: it would be kind of a novel application of that law, 409 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,640 Speaker 1: and that makes prosecutors kind of nervous. Typically. I think 410 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:09,520 Speaker 1: probably the most likely one is the obstructing the official proceeding, 411 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: which we've also seen a number of January six folks 412 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,479 Speaker 1: charged with. So, you know, I think it's very clear. 413 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,879 Speaker 1: You've got investigations now in New York. It's a civil 414 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,719 Speaker 1: investigation into Trump's business practices. We'll tell you about that 415 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,360 Speaker 1: in just a minute. We have these DC grand juries 416 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 1: and paneled, and we've been getting reporting out recently which 417 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,880 Speaker 1: we covered on this show about how far along they 418 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 1: seem to be. So they've been talking to a couple 419 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: of former Pence aids. They've been looking specifically in detail 420 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:45,399 Speaker 1: at what Trump said at different meetings and seemed to 421 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: be focused especially on his involvement. And there's two tracks there. 422 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,679 Speaker 1: There's one that's looking at, you know, his incitement on 423 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: January sixth. The one that seems to be a sort 424 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: of more likely direction is the one regarding the fake 425 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 1: elector scheme. And in addition, there's a Georgia investigation that 426 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 1: also is looking at the fake elector scheme, specifically in Georgia. Now, 427 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,719 Speaker 1: if you believe Attorney General Eric Holder, that's actually an 428 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 1: investigation that is the furthest along and I think that 429 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: he believes will result in high level indictments the most 430 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: you know, in the most sort of timely pace. So 431 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: we'll see whether he's right or not. But there's reason 432 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: to believe him he has at least some insight, just 433 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: given his background, given his level of connections, et cetera. 434 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 1: So those are all the sort of fronts that Trump 435 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 1: is facing jeopardy on. Not to mention, there was also 436 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 1: a federal court ruling saying he does have to turn 437 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,640 Speaker 1: over his tax returns to a House committee. That will 438 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 1: continue to be challenged, So we'll see where that ultimately goes. 439 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: But a lot happening for him in the legal fronts 440 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 1: this week. Absolutely, and with Perry, I always do think 441 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 1: it is worth what the actual objection to these guys 442 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,959 Speaker 1: in the election fraud was. Perry was the chief booster 443 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,920 Speaker 1: of something called Italy Gate, which claimed that very incredible 444 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 1: military Italian defense contractor conspired with the CIA to use 445 00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 1: military satellites to change votes for Trump to Biden. How 446 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: exactly he came up with this, This came from, This 447 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,679 Speaker 1: came from and I'm not kidding. He believed that at 448 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:26,680 Speaker 1: the heart of this was a Virginia socialite who brought 449 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,920 Speaker 1: this to his attention, who he then compiled and had 450 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 1: these fake dossiers where he was convinced enough that he 451 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: was literally asking Mark Meadows and the government in order 452 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 1: to try and discuss it with the Italian government at 453 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 1: the diplomatic level, and I cannot imagine that, and was 454 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: sending the guy YouTube videos about it and badgering the government, saying, 455 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 1: why don't we just work with the Italian government. So 456 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,359 Speaker 1: this is up there with bamboo ballots out of the 457 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,399 Speaker 1: state of Arizona. I just think it's worth guy's a 458 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,959 Speaker 1: genuine Oh he's a believer for genuine coup. No, he's 459 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,639 Speaker 1: just a boomer Yeah, clear boomer brain. I mean, you know, 460 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 1: if you're willing to believe this is Quanon level of stuff. 461 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 1: And it's like you're in the midst of the election, 462 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: you see this video when it's like edited exactly the 463 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,199 Speaker 1: right way, and you're like, hey, this is real, Like 464 00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:18,199 Speaker 1: we got to fight all this. You start saying, I mean, 465 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 1: how else do you blow up the phone or the 466 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: White House Chief of Staff unless you believe this stuff 467 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 1: is real? I don't know why, Yeah, you would otherwise, 468 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 1: So I mean, I guess he was genuine when he 469 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,400 Speaker 1: also is one allegedly who asked for a preemptive part. Yeah, 470 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,160 Speaker 1: that's right. Well, according to Cassidy hut To, I don't 471 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,359 Speaker 1: know if it's true, but allegedly he has one of 472 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 1: the ones that asked for president. He denies it, but yeah, 473 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 1: I mean, listen, if you don't want to have your 474 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 1: phone seized, then like, don't try to don't do this stuff. 475 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,360 Speaker 1: Tell you don't do that Italy gate. There are many 476 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,760 Speaker 1: Italy gates. They start with their coffee. Okay, all right, 477 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 1: getting away from all right, let's go ahead and discuss 478 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:53,959 Speaker 1: the next part of this, the one that you've probably 479 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,160 Speaker 1: seen the most headlines about. We'll start with Trump's statement quote, 480 00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 1: let's put this up there on the screen, please. In 481 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 1: his death position, with the New York Attorney General's Office 482 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 1: focusing on fraud surrounding his businesses, he released his full 483 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,479 Speaker 1: statement quote, I once asked, if you're innocent, why are 484 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 1: you taking the Fifth Amendment? Now I know the answer 485 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 1: to that question. When your family, your company, and all 486 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:13,680 Speaker 1: the people in your orbit have become the targets of 487 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 1: an unfounded politically motive which hunt supported by lawyers prosecutors 488 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: in the fake news media. You have no choice. If 489 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 1: there's any question in my mind. The rate of my 490 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,520 Speaker 1: home on Monday by the FBI two days prior to 491 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 1: my deposition wiped out uncertainty. I have no choice because 492 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: the current administration, many prosecutors in this country, have lost 493 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 1: all more on ethical bounds of decency. Accordingly, under the 494 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 1: advice of my counsel, and for all of the above reasons, 495 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 1: I declined to answer the questions under the rights and 496 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,080 Speaker 1: privileges afforded to every citizen under the United States Constitution. 497 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: This is in relation. Let's go and put the next 498 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: one up there, please, which is that the President says 499 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,400 Speaker 1: that he took the fifth nearly four hundred times in 500 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:50,119 Speaker 1: that New York civil investigation. That investigation has been running 501 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,679 Speaker 1: now for months, if not years, and into specifically his 502 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: business dealings, so we have seen. Essentially it revolves around 503 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: whether he inflated the value of assets whenever he was 504 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 1: in the sales process, which I'm just going to say, 505 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 1: I don't have difficulty believing it. As to whether it's 506 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 1: true or not, I simply have no idea. They issued 507 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 1: a number of subpoenas to maybe many members of the 508 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: Trump organization themselves, and a lot of this actually stems 509 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,359 Speaker 1: from before Trump was even president. It's a retroactive view 510 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,880 Speaker 1: into the Trump organization and how it conducted itself in business. 511 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 1: As I said, he sat for nearly a four hour deposition. 512 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 1: The only answer that he actually gave definitively was when 513 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 1: they asked him his name. From that point forward, he 514 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 1: pleaded the fifth nearly four hundred times throughout the entire discussion. So, 515 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: if I had to guess some of that video will 516 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:43,159 Speaker 1: be released by the New York attendeany Attorney General's office 517 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,679 Speaker 1: as to the furtherance of that investigation, I literally have 518 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 1: no idea. We don't have a lot of we don't 519 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 1: have a lot of information. We know at the Manhattan 520 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 1: district level there was all that drama where the top 521 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 1: prosecutor actually left under pressure because he was like, they 522 00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,359 Speaker 1: kept wanting me to charge Trump and I wasn't going 523 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 1: to do it. So that was a It's a different investigation. 524 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 1: That was a criminal investigation. This is a civil investigation. 525 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,119 Speaker 1: Now it is possible that, you know, Attorney General Letitia 526 00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 1: James and her team turns up something that is significant 527 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 1: enough that the criminal investigation gets new legs, which hasn't 528 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 1: technically been closed. But to your point, the criminal probe 529 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 1: had seemed like it was progressing, and this is they 530 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 1: say it stalled. After a new district attorney, Alvin Braggatt Democrat, 531 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,479 Speaker 1: took office in January, a grand jury that had been 532 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 1: hearing evidence disbanded. Top prosecutor had been handling the probe 533 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 1: resigned after brag raised questions internally about the viability of 534 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 1: the case. So they sort of, you know, decided there 535 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,840 Speaker 1: wasn't It looks like they decided they didn't have enough 536 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 1: to move forward with charging him. But you know, again, 537 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 1: it's possible that this gets new legs with this civil inquiry. 538 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,120 Speaker 1: Just to give you one of the details about the 539 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 1: alleged inflation of the assets, which again I don't know 540 00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:55,679 Speaker 1: what the legal standard is. I'm sure it has to 541 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 1: be willful. I'm sure it has to be from I'm 542 00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: sure it has to you know, there's a standard that 543 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 1: they would have to be you'd hear, although the civil 544 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: standards likely less than the criminal standard. They say the 545 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,680 Speaker 1: company Trump's Company exaggerated the size of Trump's Manhattan penthouse 546 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,840 Speaker 1: as one example, saying it was nearly three times it's 547 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 1: actual size. A difference in value of about two hundred 548 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 1: million dollars. So pretty blatant on that one. Pretty blatant, 549 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,399 Speaker 1: not just sort of like, you know, let's round up 550 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,679 Speaker 1: and set it down kind of stuff, like let's just 551 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 1: multiply by three the actual size. We'll see what comes 552 00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 1: of that ultimately. It is funny. What did you think 553 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 1: of his statement? Because you know, it's interesting because he 554 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,440 Speaker 1: knew people were going to pull up those old comments. Yeah, 555 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 1: there's a lot of clips. I love him being like, 556 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 1: I don't know why you plead the fifth if you're 557 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: in he said. He's like you're He's like, if you're innocent, 558 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: you don't plead something about the mob. This was a 559 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen thing, and he he has I think he 560 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 1: has taken the fifth in the past, but he usually 561 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 1: sort of relishes going in and sparring with you know, 562 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 1: in This was a dumb comment when he made it. 563 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 1: It's a dumb one now that I've seen. Remember Daniel Goldman, 564 00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 1: he was the prosecutor in the each Mean trial on 565 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,640 Speaker 1: the Democrat's behalf. He's running for Congress now. He's a 566 00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 1: lawyer from the Department of Justice formerly, and he's like, 567 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 1: you don't plead the fifth unless you're in I'm just like, 568 00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,719 Speaker 1: come on, you know, it's part of this is one 569 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 1: of the most important things that we have in terms 570 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 1: of in terms of your ability to protect yourself from 571 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,200 Speaker 1: the state and coerce, convert, coerce, confession and all of that. 572 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,440 Speaker 1: It's one of the bedrocks of the judicial system, the 573 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: ability for the for an American citizen to have to 574 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 1: not incriminate themselves, you know, under questioning like this, that 575 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: the government would have to have a standard of proof 576 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 1: much higher than that in order to convict you. So 577 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 1: it's incredibly dumb when Trump says it, and it's dumb 578 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 1: when these resistance liberals who are criminal lawyers who should 579 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,200 Speaker 1: know better are saying it too. We should not we 580 00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,640 Speaker 1: should not gaslight millions of people into thinking that, oh, 581 00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 1: when you plead the fifth that means you're automatically absolutely not. 582 00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 1: That's insane. Yeah, that's that's correct. But I thought from 583 00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 1: political perspective, it was kind of interesting that he anticipated 584 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 1: that's true, that he was going to be you know, 585 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 1: hit with that. It's almost like the closest that Trump 586 00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:04,160 Speaker 1: has Trump ever comes to admitting that he was wrong 587 00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 1: or that he changed his mind or whatever. I mean, 588 00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:08,720 Speaker 1: Normally his mo o is just to ignore whatever the 589 00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,520 Speaker 1: contradictory past statement is and just keep like plowing ahead 590 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,160 Speaker 1: in the future. So I thought that was kind of interesting. 591 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 1: It is, I mean, he's very immune to hypocrisies and 592 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 1: man is hypocritical literally all the time. He doesn't really 593 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,600 Speaker 1: care actually acknowledge it. But yeah, yeah, I mean it 594 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 1: not a bad thing. I note of it. I thought 595 00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 1: I thought it felt a little different than the noise 596 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: Trump statement. Absolutely, anyway, that's kind of a big level 597 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:34,400 Speaker 1: picture of where things stand. I think, still very murky picture. 598 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,360 Speaker 1: I think, you know, I just really want to disabuse 599 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 1: people of the idea that there is this you know, 600 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 1: super coordinated grand plot that you know, the FBI raid 601 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,040 Speaker 1: was the first step of. It does not appear that 602 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 1: that is the case. Again, that doesn't mean there won't 603 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 1: be indictments or you know, something in the future. But 604 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 1: I think what initially, especially with these other pieces coming 605 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: all in the same week, seemed like, you know, all 606 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,280 Speaker 1: the walls are closing in and Merrett Garland is the 607 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: puppet master and sort of slotting him into the role 608 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,960 Speaker 1: of Muller. I don't think that I don't think that's 609 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,440 Speaker 1: actually the picture that we have of this week as 610 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 1: it comes to a close. Yeah, I think that's right. 611 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 1: All right, let's go and talk about inflation, obviously always 612 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 1: enormously politically consequential. We got some fascinating new numbers yesterday 613 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: on the month of July. Let's go ahead and put 614 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 1: that up there on the screen. Inflation actually dropped eight 615 00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 1: point five percent in July, down from nine point one 616 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,719 Speaker 1: in June. The biggest decline was in gas prices and 617 00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 1: in airfare, but grocery prices, rent, and electricity are continuing 618 00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 1: to rise. And I think that this underscores a lot 619 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 1: of what is so difficult about talking about inflation generally, 620 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 1: which is that that top line number, be it eight 621 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,720 Speaker 1: point five, be it nine point one, it is so 622 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 1: driven by few specific categories. So we did see a 623 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 1: seven percent reduction in July on gas prices similar to production, 624 00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 1: in airfare, similarly due to jet fuel. But problem there 625 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 1: is that this is a single commodity, and it actually 626 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 1: obscures the level of inflation people are still seeing on 627 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:12,400 Speaker 1: grocery prices, rising rent, rising electricity. It by no means 628 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 1: means that people are out of the woods. And arguing 629 00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:18,240 Speaker 1: over the top line figure can just be really foolish. 630 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 1: That being said, you know the CPI number. Let's go 631 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 1: ahead and put this up there. You can see here 632 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 1: that the overall one month percent increase for all consumers 633 00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 1: seasonally adjusted, it's the first time that we've had zero 634 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 1: in over a year. Not a terrible thing. The problem though, is, 635 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:39,120 Speaker 1: as you alluded to, politically saying yeah, look, it is 636 00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,840 Speaker 1: a good thing. Today we officially got the news that 637 00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,880 Speaker 1: the national average of gasoline has dropped low four dollars. 638 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,600 Speaker 1: It's three ninety nine. I think that's fantastic. I also 639 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:49,960 Speaker 1: think three ninety nine is still way too high. I 640 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 1: also think that the fact that grocery prices are up 641 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:56,360 Speaker 1: eighteen percent, twenty percent, electricity continues to rise, natural gas 642 00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,280 Speaker 1: is a commodity is going to explode come wintertime. We 643 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:03,600 Speaker 1: still have all kinds of massive warning signs in the economy. Well, 644 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 1: the Biden administration trying to embrace this as some sort 645 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 1: of full fledged victory and saying inflation itself is over, 646 00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: just like they've said previously, like the best job market 647 00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 1: in World War two. Take a listen to how they 648 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:20,240 Speaker 1: reacted yesterday. What about the news that came out today 649 00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:24,320 Speaker 1: relative to the economy. Actually, I just want to say 650 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:29,920 Speaker 1: a number zero. Today we receive news that our economy 651 00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 1: had zero percent inflation in the month of July. Zero percent. 652 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, technically correct at the urban consumer CPI. 653 00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 1: But doing victory laps like this on top line figures 654 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,480 Speaker 1: which do not comport with the actual reality on the ground, 655 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: is just foolish because let's say it does go up 656 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 1: next month, or even if it shrinks by zero point five, 657 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,240 Speaker 1: but electricity goes up by I don't even know how high, 658 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 1: or you still can't okay, maybe down, but you still 659 00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,360 Speaker 1: can't catch a flight. I mean, I was telling you 660 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 1: about my experience I reached. I flew to Portland over 661 00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 1: the weekends Oregon, and more than half, more than half 662 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:13,360 Speaker 1: of the departure board at Reagan was either delayed or canceled. 663 00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 1: And I was, to be fair, there were weather related problems. 664 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:18,480 Speaker 1: But I was speaking with some of the crew and 665 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 1: some of the air crew. What they were telling me 666 00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,960 Speaker 1: is the real issue is, of course weather is ever present. 667 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,279 Speaker 1: But when you have all this chaotic mess and then 668 00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,360 Speaker 1: you add weather, that's how you have mass cancelations that 669 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 1: happen all across the board. Society is still not functioning 670 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,400 Speaker 1: at a very very basic level. So nothing to celebrate, 671 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 1: in my opinion, and everybody just exaggerates, you know, one 672 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:38,840 Speaker 1: way or the other. I think the bottom line is, 673 00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 1: you know, things are still not good. Three nine to nine. 674 00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:42,799 Speaker 1: Gas is still not great. Gas is still five dollars 675 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,560 Speaker 1: a gallon in California, Millions and millions of Americans still 676 00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,759 Speaker 1: paying well over four bucks. And also there's no sign 677 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,040 Speaker 1: that this is nothing but a temporary decrease post Memorial 678 00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 1: Day demand. Once people have to start buying fuel oil, 679 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,359 Speaker 1: you know, middle distillates like diesel and more natural gas 680 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,919 Speaker 1: in order to heat houses as things get colder. Price 681 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 1: probably just going to go right back back. We'll see 682 00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 1: what's going to happen. I think politically, the messaging is, 683 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,279 Speaker 1: you know, it's very simple to see what you want 684 00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,399 Speaker 1: to say, like we're encouraged by this news, but we're 685 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,839 Speaker 1: not satisfied. We know that people are struggling. We want 686 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,680 Speaker 1: to do a lot more here as a plan. Right, 687 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,799 Speaker 1: it's the same problem that Obama got himself into, like 688 00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,799 Speaker 1: overly celebratory of a very anemic recovery that people just 689 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,200 Speaker 1: really weren't feeling and as we've said in the past, 690 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,640 Speaker 1: if he had like an actually good candidate that he 691 00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:29,759 Speaker 1: was up against rather than like the epitome of plutocracy, 692 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,680 Speaker 1: Mitt Romney, he was very vulnerable to being defeated. But 693 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,719 Speaker 1: you know, specifically because of that, people don't expect you 694 00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 1: to fix everything immediately, but they do expect you to 695 00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 1: sort of understand the problem empathize with it. Especially Joe Biden, 696 00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,600 Speaker 1: one of the qualities people always loved the most about 697 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:47,160 Speaker 1: him was his empathy for blue collar working class people. 698 00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:51,759 Speaker 1: My big, the big question for me, and I think 699 00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: what will be most significant for how things play out 700 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,600 Speaker 1: moving forward is how the FED interprets this. Yet, so 701 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,680 Speaker 1: you have a few contradictory things. You had a jobs 702 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:04,360 Speaker 1: report which came in higher than expected five hundred and 703 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,680 Speaker 1: twenty eight thousand jobs added. That number came out last 704 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:09,880 Speaker 1: week on employment rate falls to three point five percent. 705 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,600 Speaker 1: And you had weirdos like Jason Furman, who was an 706 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 1: Obama economist, being like this is uncomfortably hot, as if 707 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,600 Speaker 1: it's a bad thing when we add jobs and the 708 00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:22,440 Speaker 1: unemployment rate goes down. But those are the sort of 709 00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,279 Speaker 1: numbers that the FED thinking about this as they do 710 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,399 Speaker 1: in this sort of like sociopathic way of we've got 711 00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 1: to make people pay and we've got to slow down 712 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,480 Speaker 1: the economy, and we need to hike up the unemployment rate. 713 00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:34,640 Speaker 1: Like Larry Summers said, we need to have ten percent 714 00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,879 Speaker 1: unemployment for a year. May look at that and say 715 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 1: we got to continue the course the dose of the 716 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:44,960 Speaker 1: tough medicine, hiking rates at this extraordinarily fast rate to 717 00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,799 Speaker 1: get things under control, because it's not working yet. You 718 00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:51,120 Speaker 1: weren't suffering enough yet. So it's not working yet. Not 719 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,240 Speaker 1: to say you're not suffering, but you're not suffering according 720 00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:56,839 Speaker 1: to them enough. Now you have this other actually two 721 00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,680 Speaker 1: counter indicators came in. You also had a projection of 722 00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,000 Speaker 1: what Cannsumers think inflation is going to be that came 723 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:06,759 Speaker 1: in under expectations. So that was another thing arguing against 724 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,800 Speaker 1: the Fed continuing to hike rates at the pace that 725 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:12,760 Speaker 1: they've been doing. And then now you have this inflation 726 00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,000 Speaker 1: report which also came in, you know, lower than expected 727 00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,600 Speaker 1: and with the zero percent increase for the past month. 728 00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:23,000 Speaker 1: So my plea to the Fed is, guys, slow down. 729 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,279 Speaker 1: You know, it looks like inflation is headed in the 730 00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 1: right direction of course it continues to be a mixed bag, 731 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,200 Speaker 1: but don't send us to into a recession and make 732 00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:35,040 Speaker 1: people pay even more so not only do you have 733 00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 1: you know, high grocery bills and high gas pump bills, 734 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,919 Speaker 1: but you also then lose your job. There's no need 735 00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:45,279 Speaker 1: to do that. Slow your role and let's see where 736 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,920 Speaker 1: things ultimately go, because at least these are some positive 737 00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 1: indications that things are had in the right direction, and 738 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,480 Speaker 1: they could make things so much worse if they go 739 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,440 Speaker 1: too far, too fast. Well, we already have the signs 740 00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,520 Speaker 1: of that. Yes, exactly right. So this is you know, 741 00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:02,799 Speaker 1: early indication in terms of housing San Francisco. This is 742 00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:05,719 Speaker 1: this is interesting because this is some indicators that kind 743 00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:07,160 Speaker 1: of the high end. Let's go ahead and put this 744 00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,600 Speaker 1: up on the screen. So San Francisco quote froth is 745 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,279 Speaker 1: gone as wealth fades, housing slumps. Now, we're not going 746 00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,920 Speaker 1: to shed any tears here for the tech you know, 747 00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:21,560 Speaker 1: multi multimillionaires of San Francisco. But they lead this look 748 00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,400 Speaker 1: at the San Francisco housing market by saying a palatial 749 00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:26,800 Speaker 1: five bedroom home built in nineteen thirty two with stained 750 00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,800 Speaker 1: glass windows, hand carved doors, jaw dropping hillside views of 751 00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,040 Speaker 1: downtown San Francisco hit the market in April for nine 752 00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:35,120 Speaker 1: point five million. In June, the owners dropped the price 753 00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,279 Speaker 1: to seven million. It went up for auction last week 754 00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,800 Speaker 1: and then opening bid a four and a half million, 755 00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:44,799 Speaker 1: and no offers emerged, So they slashed the price in 756 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,319 Speaker 1: half and still didn't get any offers on this multimillion 757 00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:52,879 Speaker 1: dollar mansion in San Francisco. Now why is this happening, Well, 758 00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,600 Speaker 1: you have a number of things. First of all, you know, 759 00:38:55,680 --> 00:39:00,520 Speaker 1: there's the fact that these tech valuations way down market down, 760 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,400 Speaker 1: so all of the Silicon Valley types who have so 761 00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,480 Speaker 1: much of their wealth tied up in the market, even 762 00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,120 Speaker 1: they are feeling like less like they want to just 763 00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:11,200 Speaker 1: casually drop a few million dollars in cash on a home. 764 00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,120 Speaker 1: That's one of the biggest things. And then you also 765 00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:17,040 Speaker 1: have quality of living concerns in San Francisco massive rise 766 00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:21,759 Speaker 1: and homelessness concerns over street crime as well. That has 767 00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:23,719 Speaker 1: taken some of the bloom off the rows in terms 768 00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:27,080 Speaker 1: of that city. But interestingly, San Francisco was actually the 769 00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,440 Speaker 1: only major US city where home prices fell in June 770 00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:34,880 Speaker 1: year over year, So the tech sector in particular, they 771 00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:38,120 Speaker 1: were hit the hardest at the beginning of this market crash, 772 00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,160 Speaker 1: and that is really reverberating throughout the Bay Area economy. 773 00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:43,800 Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I mean we saw that from the beginning, 774 00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:45,840 Speaker 1: and this is just as we said, tech was the 775 00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,680 Speaker 1: leading indicator on the recession, and tech is going to 776 00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,239 Speaker 1: be the leading indicator San Francisco. Also, in terms of 777 00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:54,040 Speaker 1: the housing market, if the Federal Reserve continues this, I 778 00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:56,040 Speaker 1: think believe the average mortgage right now is like six 779 00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,600 Speaker 1: percent six point five percent something around that for a 780 00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:02,120 Speaker 1: thirty year fixed mortgage, which that's astronomically much higher than 781 00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:04,239 Speaker 1: it was even just six months ago, over a year ago. 782 00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,120 Speaker 1: So if you consider that as we're talking about double 783 00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,799 Speaker 1: the average mortgage payment for a lot of people if 784 00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,160 Speaker 1: they're trying to buy houses. This squeezes the rental market already. 785 00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:15,839 Speaker 1: We have a housing problem in San Francisco. Also, we've 786 00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:18,880 Speaker 1: talked before about housing construction. There's a ton of construction 787 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:20,800 Speaker 1: that was coming online. Some of it is going to 788 00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,240 Speaker 1: be stopped. Was actually really bad. You want that housing 789 00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,720 Speaker 1: stock to come online, the new housing stock, Well, if 790 00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,640 Speaker 1: the builders don't feel like they're going to get anything 791 00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:30,440 Speaker 1: for it, then they're just going to stop building. So 792 00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:32,839 Speaker 1: we could have a supply crunch, and we could also 793 00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,279 Speaker 1: simultaneously have a rental crunch as well, which is only 794 00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,640 Speaker 1: going to increase higher prices. But I thought the best 795 00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:40,799 Speaker 1: piece here was that New York Times one. Let's put 796 00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,400 Speaker 1: it up there on the screen about in the unequal economy, 797 00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,120 Speaker 1: the poor facy inflation now and a job lost later. 798 00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:48,520 Speaker 1: It just you know, highlights the FED strategy, which is 799 00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:52,319 Speaker 1: that right now the poor are far more likely to 800 00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,160 Speaker 1: feel feel it hard at the gas pump, at the 801 00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:58,600 Speaker 1: grocery store, electric bills, and as a result, the Federal 802 00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:02,480 Speaker 1: Reserve says, okay, we're going to have to increase unemployment. Well, 803 00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:06,040 Speaker 1: who are the people who are most precarious for unemployment 804 00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:09,120 Speaker 1: in order to reduce their consumption? People who are not 805 00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:13,560 Speaker 1: in career jobs, people who don't have a lot of options, 806 00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:17,080 Speaker 1: more seasonal work quote unquote disposable. And I do not 807 00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:19,880 Speaker 1: mean that in any moral sense of the term. Those 808 00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,280 Speaker 1: are the folks who are going to suffer as a result. 809 00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:27,319 Speaker 1: So they're both being gouged and most likely to get 810 00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:31,080 Speaker 1: laid off come increasing rate time. So, as you said, 811 00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:34,479 Speaker 1: I reiterate your plea, which is, look, it's slowing down 812 00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,000 Speaker 1: it's not like this was going to do anything to 813 00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:40,920 Speaker 1: solve gas inflation at all. Same with food, as you admitted, 814 00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:45,840 Speaker 1: as JEROONN. Powell admitted, So lay off the poor for real. Now, Yeah, 815 00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:48,719 Speaker 1: and there's another problem in here, not only with the 816 00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,120 Speaker 1: way that the poor will be hit the hardest. They're 817 00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:55,040 Speaker 1: already the ones who are struggling just to make it 818 00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:59,240 Speaker 1: work month to month, be able to afford their medicine, food, rent, 819 00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:04,080 Speaker 1: or mortgage paid mens. But in addition, because there is 820 00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,560 Speaker 1: so much vast inequality in the economy, so much of 821 00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,719 Speaker 1: the wealth and the spending is at the top. So 822 00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:13,560 Speaker 1: if the top has all this you know, excess wealth, 823 00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,359 Speaker 1: and they're not pairing back at all, then it makes 824 00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:20,320 Speaker 1: it harder to get inflation under control without the federal 825 00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,480 Speaker 1: Reserve of feeling like they've got a you know, spark 826 00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:26,719 Speaker 1: hike joblessness and you know, increase unemployment, which is a 827 00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:29,400 Speaker 1: horrific direction to go in. Just to give you, they 828 00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,520 Speaker 1: have some nice color in this article, I encourage you 829 00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:33,560 Speaker 1: to read it. They talk to real people about what 830 00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,520 Speaker 1: their lives were actually like. They interview a woman named 831 00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:39,640 Speaker 1: Teresa Clark. They describe her as a retiree in Connecticut, 832 00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:43,360 Speaker 1: She says, the rising cost of living means not buying 833 00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:47,399 Speaker 1: goldfish crackers for her disabled daughter because a carton costs 834 00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,959 Speaker 1: eleven ninety nine at her local stopping shop. It means 835 00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:53,520 Speaker 1: showering at the YMCA to save on her hot water bill. 836 00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,520 Speaker 1: It means watching her bank account dwindled to fifty dollars 837 00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:58,879 Speaker 1: because of someone on a fixed income who's never made 838 00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:00,600 Speaker 1: much money to start with their own. Aren't many other 839 00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:04,000 Speaker 1: places she can trim her spending as prices rise, She says, 840 00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:07,319 Speaker 1: there is nothing to cut back on. She already cut 841 00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:12,080 Speaker 1: down the goldfish crackers. Then they interview a guy named 842 00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,040 Speaker 1: David Schoenfeld, who made about two hundred and fifty thousand 843 00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,759 Speaker 1: dollars in retirement income and consulting fees last year, has 844 00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,600 Speaker 1: about five million in saving socked away. He hasn't paired 845 00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:22,840 Speaker 1: back his spending at all. He just returned from a 846 00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:26,120 Speaker 1: vacation in Greece with his daughter and two of his grandchildren. 847 00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:28,560 Speaker 1: And the way they phrase it is that divergence poses 848 00:43:28,600 --> 00:43:31,240 Speaker 1: a challenge for the FED, which is hoping that higher 849 00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,360 Speaker 1: interest rates will slow consumer spending in these pressure and 850 00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,400 Speaker 1: prices across the economy, But already there are signs that 851 00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:39,839 Speaker 1: poorer families are cutting back. But if Richard's families don't 852 00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:41,720 Speaker 1: pull back as much, if they keep going on vacations, 853 00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,040 Speaker 1: dining out, buying new cars and second homes, many prices 854 00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,880 Speaker 1: could keep rising. The FED might need to raise interest 855 00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,799 Speaker 1: rates even more to bring inflation under control, and that 856 00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,760 Speaker 1: could cause a sharper slowdown. And really, to your point, 857 00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:55,040 Speaker 1: the real problem here is that the FED has no 858 00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:57,640 Speaker 1: power over the things that are the key drivers of 859 00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,400 Speaker 1: inflation anyway. Yeah, they have no power over any of this, 860 00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:03,640 Speaker 1: and it just makes people extraordinarily vulnerable really to everything. 861 00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:05,759 Speaker 1: So I think that people should watch out. And I'm 862 00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,239 Speaker 1: hoping that this is getting read in the correct way, 863 00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:11,799 Speaker 1: and just again to highlight some of the signs of precarity. 864 00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:13,840 Speaker 1: I found the story is very disturbing. Let's put this 865 00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,520 Speaker 1: up there, which is that the workers at the second 866 00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:20,200 Speaker 1: largest aluminum mill in the United States, which accounts for 867 00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:25,080 Speaker 1: twenty percent of US supply, learned that they were losing 868 00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:28,359 Speaker 1: their jobs because the plant cannot afford an electricity tab 869 00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,000 Speaker 1: that is tripled in a matter of months. So you 870 00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,400 Speaker 1: are going to have these workers pay the price for 871 00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,400 Speaker 1: high energy prices. Then if the FED pushes us further 872 00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:39,040 Speaker 1: and they make unemployment even higher. It's not like these 873 00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:40,960 Speaker 1: guys are going to be able to get rehired. And 874 00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,279 Speaker 1: it's also not like energy has anything to do with 875 00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:45,640 Speaker 1: any of this anyway. So you'll have high energy prices 876 00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,479 Speaker 1: and you'll have high unemployment, and these guys are getting 877 00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,760 Speaker 1: completely screwed. Also, last time I checked aluminum, we probably 878 00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,319 Speaker 1: need it as a society not to mention when you 879 00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:58,600 Speaker 1: shut down these industrial concerns, it's not like, oh, you 880 00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:00,000 Speaker 1: can just flate it, don't just turn it back on 881 00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:03,200 Speaker 1: back on. They talk about how it'll actually take months 882 00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:05,840 Speaker 1: to close down this aluminum mill because you have to 883 00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:08,080 Speaker 1: bleed own all of the molten metals so that it 884 00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:11,400 Speaker 1: doesn't just like freeze up into a giant brick, and 885 00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,600 Speaker 1: then the process of bringing it back online, if they 886 00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:18,080 Speaker 1: ever do similarly, takes months and months and months to 887 00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:20,200 Speaker 1: be able to get it up to speed again. So 888 00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:24,359 Speaker 1: when you lose these sorts of manufacturing concerns, it's very 889 00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:26,719 Speaker 1: unlikely that you ultimately get them back, and of course 890 00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:28,799 Speaker 1: that's a big problem for the economy as a whole. Yep, 891 00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:35,719 Speaker 1: that's right. A few little interesting political indicators from the 892 00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,960 Speaker 1: primaries that unfolded this week. Let's go ahead and put 893 00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:42,440 Speaker 1: this first piece up on the screen. So this is 894 00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,160 Speaker 1: a look from the Cook Political Report on the overall 895 00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,560 Speaker 1: picture as we had into the midterms. Their takeaways from 896 00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:50,600 Speaker 1: this week is that Trump's script on the GOP remains strong. 897 00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:54,480 Speaker 1: He had several of his contenders who came through, you know, 898 00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:59,399 Speaker 1: quite easily, especially his governor pick in Wisconsin. But they 899 00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,799 Speaker 1: say the red wave is looking smaller. A couple things 900 00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,279 Speaker 1: that they point to. Number one, over the summer, the 901 00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:09,560 Speaker 1: Dems have gained two points on that generic congressional ballot, 902 00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:12,520 Speaker 1: so they're sort of looking the average of the polls 903 00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:15,160 Speaker 1: has a more or less tide in the generic ballot, 904 00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:18,040 Speaker 1: which still translates into them losing in the fall control 905 00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:20,080 Speaker 1: of the House because of the way that the House 906 00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:22,480 Speaker 1: is structured, in the way that the gerrymanders work. But 907 00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,280 Speaker 1: that is a significant improvement from where they were prior 908 00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:28,600 Speaker 1: to Dobbs. You Also, they also point to the fact 909 00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:31,200 Speaker 1: that a lot of candidates in these races seem to 910 00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:36,440 Speaker 1: boot be outpacing Biden. Ordinarily, presidential approval rating is like 911 00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:39,080 Speaker 1: it is what it is, and it bleeds down into 912 00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,840 Speaker 1: all the congressional races, and it's very difficult to separate 913 00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,040 Speaker 1: yourself from that. But I think partly because you have 914 00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:47,279 Speaker 1: so many Democrats, especially on the left, who are dissatisfied 915 00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:49,440 Speaker 1: with Biden, but who aren't going to vote for Republicans, 916 00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,719 Speaker 1: you have candidates who are able to outpace Biden, but 917 00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:57,360 Speaker 1: also independence are much more likely to pick the Democratic 918 00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,440 Speaker 1: congressional candidate, even as they say they're very dis pointed 919 00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,440 Speaker 1: and disaffected in terms of Biden. So that's another thing. 920 00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:08,080 Speaker 1: But the big factor that came into view this week 921 00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,720 Speaker 1: is we've had a couple of these kind of Canary 922 00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:13,560 Speaker 1: and the coal Mine or Bellweather races where you get 923 00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:17,279 Speaker 1: to take the temperature of how electoral performance lines up 924 00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:20,080 Speaker 1: with what the polls are saying. And you added this 925 00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:25,319 Speaker 1: week another race to the list where Dems outperformed what 926 00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:28,000 Speaker 1: they did in this district when Biden was on the ballot, 927 00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:31,399 Speaker 1: and also outperformed what the polling looked like. So that 928 00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:34,520 Speaker 1: makes a list of roughly three. You had that Nebraska 929 00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:39,480 Speaker 1: special election where the Democratic candidates still lost but outperformed 930 00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:41,920 Speaker 1: what you would expect given how well Trump did in 931 00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:45,440 Speaker 1: that district. You had, of course, the Kansas Abortion ballot 932 00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:49,600 Speaker 1: initiative where Democrats, I mean the Democratic side was super energized. 933 00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:52,440 Speaker 1: You had an overwhelming defeat for the pro life position, 934 00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:54,520 Speaker 1: You had plenty of Republicans who also crossed over to 935 00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:59,279 Speaker 1: vote in that one. Now you have Minnesota's first congressional 936 00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:02,840 Speaker 1: district where one again, the Republican won in this special election, 937 00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:06,960 Speaker 1: but it was a lot closer than you would have predicted, 938 00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:09,440 Speaker 1: given that this was a Trump plus eleven seat. So 939 00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:12,279 Speaker 1: let's put this next piece up on the screen. This 940 00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,920 Speaker 1: is Dave Wasserman. He says, my best guess is Brad Finstad, 941 00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:20,160 Speaker 1: who's the Republican ends up winning Minnesota's first congressional district, 942 00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:22,160 Speaker 1: which was a Trump plus ten Sorry I just said 943 00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:27,319 Speaker 1: plus eleven Trump plus ten district by just fifty one 944 00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:30,040 Speaker 1: forty seven. And that is what the final margin ended 945 00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:32,800 Speaker 1: up being, or so when the final four counties finished reporting, 946 00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:35,879 Speaker 1: that would be remarkably consistent with the June twenty eighth, 947 00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:39,600 Speaker 1: Nebraska first special election, when the Republican there won a 948 00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:43,439 Speaker 1: Trump plus eleven seat by just fifty three forty seven, 949 00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,279 Speaker 1: so a six point margin versus the eleven points that 950 00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:50,680 Speaker 1: Trump won it with. So really interesting results here and 951 00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:52,719 Speaker 1: the last piece just to add in a little bit 952 00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:54,360 Speaker 1: of the fill in a little bit of the detail 953 00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:56,200 Speaker 1: here of what exactly is happening on the ground. Let's 954 00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:58,239 Speaker 1: put this last piece up on the screen. So the 955 00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:02,879 Speaker 1: Republican performed about seven to eight percentage points worse than 956 00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:07,160 Speaker 1: Trump in the swing and democratic parts of the district. 957 00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:11,600 Speaker 1: So in the blue and purple counties, the Republican underperformed Trump. 958 00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:15,520 Speaker 1: The red counties basically stayed exactly where they were. And Sosager, 959 00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:19,480 Speaker 1: that's very consistent with the idea that it's the suburbs 960 00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:23,080 Speaker 1: that have really gotten energized and the independence there have 961 00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:27,160 Speaker 1: really swung back to the Democrats when they were more 962 00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:29,720 Speaker 1: in line with the Republicans, back say, when Glenn Youngkin 963 00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:31,600 Speaker 1: was winning for governor. This is why it matters, which 964 00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:34,040 Speaker 1: is that we are not looking at polls here, we're 965 00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:37,120 Speaker 1: looking at actual votes. So we only have three indicators 966 00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:40,440 Speaker 1: around how the Dobbs decision has affected voting patterns. We 967 00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:43,640 Speaker 1: had the special election that Dave pointed to, We had 968 00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:46,160 Speaker 1: obviously what happened in Kansas, which people are very very 969 00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:49,799 Speaker 1: quiet about currently of what exactly happened their Crystal, and 970 00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:52,640 Speaker 1: now we have this special election and in every single 971 00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:56,600 Speaker 1: case we have seen a Democratic overperformance by almost seven 972 00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:59,680 Speaker 1: to eight percentage points. And in that environment, then you 973 00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:04,520 Speaker 1: could se, well, let's extrapolate possibly given the current conditions, 974 00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:07,320 Speaker 1: to what will happen in November, and you would see 975 00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,080 Speaker 1: an overperformance. Does that overperformance mean the Demos are going 976 00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:12,480 Speaker 1: to keep the House? Probably not. Does it give them 977 00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:15,319 Speaker 1: more of a chance than previously? Yeah? Absolutely so. Does 978 00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:20,200 Speaker 1: it mean that Senate races like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will 979 00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:23,080 Speaker 1: be a little bit more dicey for Republicans? I would say, yeah, 980 00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:26,360 Speaker 1: that's probably the most impact that it's going to have 981 00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:30,920 Speaker 1: in the actual swing states Arizona and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, 982 00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:34,319 Speaker 1: any of the three. Also in Georgia, it could give 983 00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:37,240 Speaker 1: Warnock just a bit more of a boost Overhearschel Walker. 984 00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:38,799 Speaker 1: These are all the things where I think it's going 985 00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:40,760 Speaker 1: to matter the most well, because I think the question 986 00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:43,400 Speaker 1: is whether or not the red wave was going to 987 00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:47,080 Speaker 1: be so overwhelming that it even swept into office candidates 988 00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:50,000 Speaker 1: that are manifestly terrible, like herschel Walker. Right, and so 989 00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:52,719 Speaker 1: that's happened before, right like two thousand and six for Democrats. 990 00:50:52,800 --> 00:50:56,400 Speaker 1: Absolutely happened before two thousand and eight also for Democrats. 991 00:50:56,760 --> 00:51:01,160 Speaker 1: So it does not where things stand now, and again, 992 00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:04,040 Speaker 1: we had a massive event happen in politics this week 993 00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:06,200 Speaker 1: that could shift things again entirely. We don't know what 994 00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:09,440 Speaker 1: the impact if that looks like. But where things stand now, 995 00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:13,839 Speaker 1: it looks less like that type of historic overwhelming red 996 00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,960 Speaker 1: wave where Republicans end up with. Earlier, they were on 997 00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:22,120 Speaker 1: track for literal, historical, historic margins in the House of Representatives. 998 00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,160 Speaker 1: The indications now are that it's going to be a 999 00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:29,279 Speaker 1: more modest year for them, but probably still a good year. 1000 00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,839 Speaker 1: Probably still they take back the House Senate. Much more 1001 00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:35,520 Speaker 1: dicey for them. You might even say Democrats or favor 1002 00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:37,399 Speaker 1: to retain the Senate at this point, at least if 1003 00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:39,759 Speaker 1: you believe the five thirty eight modeling. But I would 1004 00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:42,600 Speaker 1: say it's very close in terms of the Senate, and 1005 00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:45,880 Speaker 1: they're going to have a harder time overcoming some of 1006 00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:48,239 Speaker 1: the candidate quality issues that they have. In a lot 1007 00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,120 Speaker 1: of these states, there was one where I just saw 1008 00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,360 Speaker 1: this morning. I have it on my phone. You know, 1009 00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:56,040 Speaker 1: Washington State also had primaries this week, and they do 1010 00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:59,560 Speaker 1: like the what's called a jungle primary world. Everybody is 1011 00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:01,960 Speaker 1: on the balid Democrat, Republican, etc. And then you take 1012 00:52:02,000 --> 00:52:04,239 Speaker 1: the top two into the general election, even if they 1013 00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:06,960 Speaker 1: are both Democrats or both Republicans or whatever they end 1014 00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:11,640 Speaker 1: up being. And Axios has an analysis here that shows 1015 00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:15,320 Speaker 1: similar Democratic overperformance. So they say, in a suburban Seattle 1016 00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,160 Speaker 1: swing state where candidates from all parties were on the 1017 00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:22,120 Speaker 1: same ballot, the Democrats won forty nine point six percent 1018 00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:25,880 Speaker 1: of the vote. Republicans tallied slightly less forty nine point 1019 00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:28,080 Speaker 1: two percent of the vote, And they say, this is 1020 00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:31,560 Speaker 1: the kind of Bellweather contest that Republicans should be winning 1021 00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:37,440 Speaker 1: decisively overwhelmingly if this is going to be a wave year. Similarly, 1022 00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:41,640 Speaker 1: in Washington Senate race, Democratic Senator Patty Murray, who has 1023 00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:45,279 Speaker 1: recently become a Republican target mostly because doctor Oz is 1024 00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:47,319 Speaker 1: performing so poorly in Pennsylvania, and they're like, we got 1025 00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:50,279 Speaker 1: to have a backup plan here, she won fifty two 1026 00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:54,160 Speaker 1: point five percent of the vote and Republicans tallied forty 1027 00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:56,960 Speaker 1: one point two percent. So what they say is the 1028 00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,799 Speaker 1: results show Republicans are making inroads, but not nearly enough 1029 00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:03,760 Speaker 1: to seat the veteran senator in a solid blue state. 1030 00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:07,360 Speaker 1: So once again you see significant shifts in the suburbs. 1031 00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:10,600 Speaker 1: You see that Republicans are not performing in a way 1032 00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:13,719 Speaker 1: that would indicate this massive red wave. They still are 1033 00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:16,040 Speaker 1: in a strong position, they still have a lot more 1034 00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:18,759 Speaker 1: factors going for them than the Democrats do. But it 1035 00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:22,240 Speaker 1: clearly is a different landscape based on the election results 1036 00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:24,040 Speaker 1: than we were seeing prior to Dobs. Yeah, I think 1037 00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:25,799 Speaker 1: that that's the best way to phrase it. Yeah. Look, 1038 00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:28,080 Speaker 1: we have actual votes here, people, and that's all that 1039 00:53:28,120 --> 00:53:30,840 Speaker 1: actually matters. Yes, one other thing, I'll say, there is 1040 00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:33,919 Speaker 1: another one of these special elections in New York State 1041 00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:38,000 Speaker 1: Swing district that's going to be very interesting to watch. 1042 00:53:38,040 --> 00:53:40,319 Speaker 1: I believe the date is August twenty third that they'll 1043 00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:43,560 Speaker 1: go to vote on that one, and Democrats in that 1044 00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,279 Speaker 1: race will be a very interesting one because they are 1045 00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:48,760 Speaker 1: all in on abortion, like all of their ads about 1046 00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:51,680 Speaker 1: abortion in that race, So that'll be an interesting one 1047 00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:54,040 Speaker 1: to watch. A couple other little notes from the night. 1048 00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:55,560 Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this next with one up 1049 00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:57,880 Speaker 1: on the screen. I think all of the squad members 1050 00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:00,960 Speaker 1: have faced significant primary challenges, all of them have dispatched 1051 00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:03,880 Speaker 1: with them easily, but this one was very close. Representative 1052 00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:07,600 Speaker 1: of Ilhan Omar defeated Don Samuels, but it was narrow. 1053 00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:11,520 Speaker 1: She won by just a few points here, and you 1054 00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:13,279 Speaker 1: know there are some mendica. I guess she didn't run 1055 00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:16,319 Speaker 1: TV ads. There's a significant amount of money on Don 1056 00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:18,400 Speaker 1: Samuel's side. He was running on a more sort of 1057 00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:22,080 Speaker 1: like tough on crime messaging, so she barely squeaks through. 1058 00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:24,040 Speaker 1: And also she was doing a lot of campaigning for 1059 00:54:24,080 --> 00:54:26,160 Speaker 1: other squad members and not so much in her district. 1060 00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:28,360 Speaker 1: So I think next time around should probably be a 1061 00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,719 Speaker 1: little closer to home, probably go up on TV and 1062 00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:34,000 Speaker 1: make sure she's got that totally locked down. The other 1063 00:54:34,040 --> 00:54:36,640 Speaker 1: interesting one, which I noted a little bit before, let's 1064 00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:38,240 Speaker 1: go ahead and put this last piece up on the screen, 1065 00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,719 Speaker 1: is that Tim How do you say this, Michael, I 1066 00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:45,280 Speaker 1: don't actually know anyway. Tim is the winner the Republican 1067 00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:50,080 Speaker 1: nomination for governor in Wisconsin. This one was interesting because 1068 00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:53,799 Speaker 1: Mike Pence had backed a different candidate who was the 1069 00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,560 Speaker 1: former lieutenant governor of the state. She was a Tea 1070 00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:59,640 Speaker 1: party icon actually doing under scot Scott Walker, right, So 1071 00:54:59,719 --> 00:55:01,560 Speaker 1: this was someone who had been prominent, who'd been seen 1072 00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,040 Speaker 1: as sort of like a conservative stall war and now 1073 00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:08,040 Speaker 1: defeated by by old Timmy here who was back by Trump, 1074 00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:11,160 Speaker 1: you know, and now the Pence backed candidate who used 1075 00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:13,680 Speaker 1: to be the bleeding edge of the conservative movement is 1076 00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:16,239 Speaker 1: seen as sort of like establishment in Rhinos. So it 1077 00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:18,719 Speaker 1: goes folks. Yes, yeah, well Wisconsin is the one I'm 1078 00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:21,640 Speaker 1: gonna watch really really close. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, any of the 1079 00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:25,880 Speaker 1: battleground states which have been flipped since the twenty sixteen election, 1080 00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:27,680 Speaker 1: that is where a lot of this stuff is going 1081 00:55:27,719 --> 00:55:29,200 Speaker 1: to matter the most. And those are also where the 1082 00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:32,840 Speaker 1: suburban coalitions both flipped or didn't come out in twenty sixteen, 1083 00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:36,120 Speaker 1: and then flipped a Biden yeah, from Republican traditional vote 1084 00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:40,120 Speaker 1: in twenty twenties. And I think gubernatorial candidate quality matters 1085 00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:44,040 Speaker 1: the most of every other street level or abortion age, right, 1086 00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:47,600 Speaker 1: because Wisconsin is very split on abortion as well. Yes, 1087 00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,080 Speaker 1: that's exactly right. So the fact that you know, you 1088 00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:53,680 Speaker 1: have a sort of more fringe or trumpier candidate who 1089 00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:56,520 Speaker 1: wins probably makes it more difficult for Republicans in the fall. 1090 00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:59,080 Speaker 1: And I think there are a number of gubernatorial races 1091 00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:01,400 Speaker 1: where Republicans would have had a really good shot and 1092 00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:04,200 Speaker 1: they've made it much much more difficult for themselves based 1093 00:56:04,239 --> 00:56:07,080 Speaker 1: on the nominees that they've chosen. So this is probably 1094 00:56:07,360 --> 00:56:09,640 Speaker 1: another instance of that because I do think, you know, 1095 00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:12,359 Speaker 1: at the House, I think candidate quality almost doesn't matter 1096 00:56:12,400 --> 00:56:15,279 Speaker 1: at all, unless you have a really extreme case. I 1097 00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:19,160 Speaker 1: think of the Senate it can matter some Like, you know, 1098 00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:21,560 Speaker 1: I do think some of the candidates Republicans nominated are 1099 00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:23,719 Speaker 1: going to have some issues based on prior statements and 1100 00:56:23,800 --> 00:56:27,360 Speaker 1: just based on inexperience. And at the gubernatorial level, you 1101 00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:29,319 Speaker 1: can even have you know, I mean, in Kentucky has 1102 00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:32,120 Speaker 1: a Democratic governor right now, and Vermont has a Republican 1103 00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:35,759 Speaker 1: governor right now. Maryland has a Republican governor right now. 1104 00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:37,760 Speaker 1: Even though these are you know, states that are crossing 1105 00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:40,920 Speaker 1: and voting in a a a cross partisan way because 1106 00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:44,680 Speaker 1: they're actually doing more like evaluating the individual candidates. We'll 1107 00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:46,799 Speaker 1: see how that all plays out. One All right, let's 1108 00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:49,120 Speaker 1: talk about the GOP. We tease this a little bit earlier, 1109 00:56:49,120 --> 00:56:52,160 Speaker 1: but it's obvious now that Trump has never been in 1110 00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:55,959 Speaker 1: a position better to be the quote unquote undisputed leader 1111 00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:59,120 Speaker 1: of the GOP than probably what the day January fifth, 1112 00:56:59,200 --> 00:57:02,440 Speaker 1: two thousand and twenty one. And the reason for that 1113 00:57:02,600 --> 00:57:05,520 Speaker 1: is the FBI rate even if the circumstances do turn 1114 00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:08,920 Speaker 1: out to be piecemeal, not that significant. The fact that 1115 00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:14,759 Speaker 1: it did happen basically caused every single possible challenger to 1116 00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:17,560 Speaker 1: come out to his defense. Really just showing that if 1117 00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:20,440 Speaker 1: you have to do that, then you are at least 1118 00:57:20,440 --> 00:57:23,760 Speaker 1: at some level bending the knee to the undisputed leader 1119 00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:26,400 Speaker 1: of the GOP. And we're not just the one saying 1120 00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:30,520 Speaker 1: that many Republican allies to President Trump actually want him 1121 00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:33,480 Speaker 1: to announce immediately that he will be running in twenty 1122 00:57:33,520 --> 00:57:35,400 Speaker 1: twenty four. Let's go and put this up there on 1123 00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:38,000 Speaker 1: the screen. Many top Republicans who have been trying to 1124 00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:41,240 Speaker 1: get him to announce for months now before the midterms 1125 00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:44,160 Speaker 1: are actually coming around to the idea, and Trump himself 1126 00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:47,640 Speaker 1: is also apparently weighing the decision. The reason in that, 1127 00:57:48,400 --> 00:57:51,560 Speaker 1: given that you had all of these candidates, Mike Pompeo, 1128 00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:54,959 Speaker 1: even Mike Pence obviously has been critical or at least 1129 00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:58,480 Speaker 1: tacitly critical of the foreign President, Ron DeSantis, even Glenn 1130 00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:00,880 Speaker 1: Youngkin not exactly the Trump, a guy on the planet 1131 00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:03,160 Speaker 1: who didn't even want Trump to come to Virginia to 1132 00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:05,560 Speaker 1: campaign for him. All of them had to come out 1133 00:58:05,680 --> 00:58:08,360 Speaker 1: and speak against this raid, and so what they said 1134 00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:10,880 Speaker 1: is that Trump has really been weighing should I announce 1135 00:58:11,080 --> 00:58:15,280 Speaker 1: before Labor Day? Possibly on Labor Day, maybe after the midterms. 1136 00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:18,640 Speaker 1: The reason why he wouldn't want to announce before the midterms, 1137 00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:21,000 Speaker 1: some Republicans didn't want him to is they don't want 1138 00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:24,120 Speaker 1: the midterm elections to also be about Trump. Obviously, Trump 1139 00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:26,200 Speaker 1: is a drag on the ballot, there's just no question. Yeah, 1140 00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:28,720 Speaker 1: but he doesn't care about that. He doesn't care at all. 1141 00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:31,600 Speaker 1: He wants to freeze. He basically wants to freeze the 1142 00:58:31,680 --> 00:58:35,360 Speaker 1: race and make it so that these people cannot outsmart him, 1143 00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:37,400 Speaker 1: come out ahead of him. He wants to be there 1144 00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:40,640 Speaker 1: very first, freeze it basically completely, really as he did 1145 00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:43,120 Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen. Remember, I think he was one of 1146 00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:45,840 Speaker 1: the very first presidents ever who the day after he 1147 00:58:45,880 --> 00:58:48,280 Speaker 1: won election was like, I'm running for reelection. He never 1148 00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:51,200 Speaker 1: shut down his reelection campaign. It's actually not really done 1149 00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:54,000 Speaker 1: in history. Biden has basically been doing that as well, 1150 00:58:54,040 --> 00:58:57,040 Speaker 1: but with Trump kind of setting that precedent. By freezing 1151 00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:59,000 Speaker 1: the race, you basically make it so that there's not 1152 00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:01,560 Speaker 1: going to be any sort of primary, or if there is, 1153 00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:04,080 Speaker 1: it's just going to be a much more of a contestant. 1154 00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:07,880 Speaker 1: So the CNN report is really interesting, great reporters who 1155 00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:09,720 Speaker 1: are there on the byline, and what they point to 1156 00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:12,360 Speaker 1: is that this would also freeze out any sort of 1157 00:59:12,360 --> 00:59:16,160 Speaker 1: potential quote unquote anti Trump challengers like Larry Hogan or 1158 00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:18,720 Speaker 1: a Mike Pompeo or others and not Look, those people 1159 00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:20,600 Speaker 1: don't have a chance and how but they would have 1160 00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:23,200 Speaker 1: gotten a significant on a media attention if they announced 1161 00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:27,080 Speaker 1: ahead of Trump's actual announcement. And he because he's just 1162 00:59:27,120 --> 00:59:31,200 Speaker 1: been in the strongest possible position, really puts him in 1163 00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:34,360 Speaker 1: an advantageous space. So look, it's certainly possible. The other 1164 00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:36,400 Speaker 1: thing to note, as we said, let's put this up there, 1165 00:59:36,560 --> 00:59:39,520 Speaker 1: it's just remarkable to look at how many of the 1166 00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:43,160 Speaker 1: people who have come out and voiced their concern for him, 1167 00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:48,640 Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, everyone, every single one 1168 00:59:48,680 --> 00:59:52,400 Speaker 1: of them. As I said, freaking Glennie Youngkin, who is 1169 00:59:52,440 --> 00:59:57,080 Speaker 1: the governor of a barely republican purple state here in Virginia, 1170 00:59:57,520 --> 01:00:00,200 Speaker 1: had felt compelled to come and speak on on his 1171 01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:03,720 Speaker 1: behalf like that is just shows you how undisputed that 1172 01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:07,280 Speaker 1: this is to the GOP identity, even Mike Pence. Let's 1173 01:00:07,280 --> 01:00:09,920 Speaker 1: throw Mike Pence's tweet up there. Quote. I share the 1174 01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:12,800 Speaker 1: deep concern of millions of Americans over the unprecedented search 1175 01:00:12,840 --> 01:00:15,600 Speaker 1: of the personal residence of President Trump. No former president 1176 01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:17,040 Speaker 1: of the United States has ever been subject to a 1177 01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:20,480 Speaker 1: rate of their personal residence in American history. Yesterday's action 1178 01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:23,800 Speaker 1: undermines public confidence in our system, and Attorney General Garland 1179 01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:26,240 Speaker 1: must give a full accounting to the American people as 1180 01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:29,200 Speaker 1: to why this action was taken. He must do so immediately. 1181 01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:33,200 Speaker 1: So look the fact that Pence, who clearly has said 1182 01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:36,560 Speaker 1: that I mean privately, has told people, yeah, I might 1183 01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:39,600 Speaker 1: run against Trump. You know, he's got the honor of 1184 01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:42,320 Speaker 1: how he behaved on January sixth, he had the break 1185 01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:45,840 Speaker 1: with Trump post where Trump trashed him as a coward. 1186 01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:49,600 Speaker 1: He even is bending the knee. This just shows you that. 1187 01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:51,959 Speaker 1: And I think this just confirms really what I thought 1188 01:00:51,960 --> 01:00:54,560 Speaker 1: all along, which is that if Trump was truly in 1189 01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:57,080 Speaker 1: the crosshairs of a Rohndes sand discern of these people, 1190 01:00:57,200 --> 01:00:59,400 Speaker 1: that he would just destroy them, that people, you know, 1191 01:00:59,560 --> 01:01:02,560 Speaker 1: have to come to his defense. The fact that DeSantis 1192 01:01:02,560 --> 01:01:04,640 Speaker 1: doesn't even have it him to ask Trump to endorse him, 1193 01:01:04,680 --> 01:01:06,720 Speaker 1: but still has to send out a tweet trying to 1194 01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:10,040 Speaker 1: defend Trump whenever he's in the barrel. It's just like, dude, 1195 01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:13,520 Speaker 1: that's just how it is. There's just no beating the man. 1196 01:01:13,600 --> 01:01:16,880 Speaker 1: He rules American politics, and in a way, he doesn't 1197 01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:19,640 Speaker 1: rule the GOP. He rules American politics. Look at our 1198 01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:23,560 Speaker 1: media environment the level at which it gets activated by Trump. 1199 01:01:23,600 --> 01:01:26,120 Speaker 1: It's like, this is still the Trump era even if 1200 01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:29,040 Speaker 1: Biden is the president. It's just remarkable. Really, I think 1201 01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:32,720 Speaker 1: that's really well said. Yeah, and I hate that because 1202 01:01:32,760 --> 01:01:34,920 Speaker 1: I don't like it. I think that the I mean, 1203 01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:37,320 Speaker 1: this is in my opinion, I don't want to say 1204 01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:39,200 Speaker 1: it's the worst part about Trump, but one of the 1205 01:01:39,200 --> 01:01:42,000 Speaker 1: things that I really hate about the Trump era is 1206 01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:45,800 Speaker 1: that he becomes the dividing line and it really does 1207 01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:49,120 Speaker 1: make our politics just terrible, just terrible. Where you end 1208 01:01:49,200 --> 01:01:52,160 Speaker 1: up with like, you know, liberals donating a list Cheney 1209 01:01:52,240 --> 01:01:55,280 Speaker 1: and Dick Cheney making a comeback, and George W. Bush 1210 01:01:55,360 --> 01:01:58,880 Speaker 1: being rehabbed and Nicole Wallace getting fourteen hours on MSNBC 1211 01:01:59,080 --> 01:02:01,120 Speaker 1: or how many hours she hosts at this point, and 1212 01:02:01,160 --> 01:02:05,160 Speaker 1: you end up with Republicans who literally stand for nothing 1213 01:02:05,200 --> 01:02:08,720 Speaker 1: except for sucking up to this guy, and that's the 1214 01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:11,800 Speaker 1: only like he makes it. So that is the most 1215 01:02:11,840 --> 01:02:15,320 Speaker 1: significant dividing line in Fisher in politics, and that sucks 1216 01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:19,240 Speaker 1: because it's a stupid way to think about our country 1217 01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:21,760 Speaker 1: and our democracy and what we want it to look like. 1218 01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:25,800 Speaker 1: So that's what I've always found the most frustrating and 1219 01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:28,880 Speaker 1: the most difficult to deal with in the Trump era 1220 01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:30,920 Speaker 1: is it is very much like you're with him or 1221 01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:34,840 Speaker 1: you're against him, and anything you think about healthcare, education, 1222 01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:38,840 Speaker 1: or even cultural issues doesn't matter. The only thing that 1223 01:02:38,920 --> 01:02:41,160 Speaker 1: matters is where you stand on that one thing, and 1224 01:02:41,280 --> 01:02:44,840 Speaker 1: that freaking sucks and is terrible. And I will say 1225 01:02:44,840 --> 01:02:48,600 Speaker 1: in terms of these Republicans who this is also predictable. 1226 01:02:48,600 --> 01:02:50,080 Speaker 1: I mean, I do feel like we are kind of 1227 01:02:50,160 --> 01:02:52,320 Speaker 1: validated and what we've been saying here, which is that 1228 01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:54,960 Speaker 1: it's just total wishcasting the idea that he's about to 1229 01:02:54,960 --> 01:02:57,960 Speaker 1: be knocked off his perch in terms of being the 1230 01:02:58,560 --> 01:03:02,640 Speaker 1: dominant force in the Republican Party. They might have had 1231 01:03:02,640 --> 01:03:06,080 Speaker 1: a chance right after January sixth, if there was an opportunity. 1232 01:03:06,520 --> 01:03:09,880 Speaker 1: That was the moment, and remember Mitch McConnell kind of 1233 01:03:10,080 --> 01:03:12,919 Speaker 1: like flirted with it. There are a few people kind 1234 01:03:12,960 --> 01:03:16,200 Speaker 1: of flirted with it, and then ultimately, very quickly they 1235 01:03:16,240 --> 01:03:18,720 Speaker 1: fell back in line, and that was their shot. If 1236 01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:21,720 Speaker 1: they didn't take that shot, then when there was somewhat 1237 01:03:21,720 --> 01:03:24,959 Speaker 1: of a chance to knock this guy out, knock him down, 1238 01:03:25,080 --> 01:03:27,320 Speaker 1: make it so we can't run again, get him out 1239 01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:30,960 Speaker 1: of the way. That was the moment. Now forget about it, 1240 01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:34,840 Speaker 1: it's done. You missed your chance, so you know, and frankly, 1241 01:03:34,880 --> 01:03:37,440 Speaker 1: you were cowards at the time to not even really 1242 01:03:37,680 --> 01:03:39,520 Speaker 1: mount some sort of an effort to try if you 1243 01:03:39,520 --> 01:03:41,240 Speaker 1: thought this was important and you thought that there was 1244 01:03:41,240 --> 01:03:42,880 Speaker 1: a better direction that you could take the party in. 1245 01:03:43,200 --> 01:03:46,280 Speaker 1: I think the media response is also very revelatory. There 1246 01:03:46,280 --> 01:03:48,960 Speaker 1: were all these pieces, some of which we covered about, 1247 01:03:48,960 --> 01:03:52,000 Speaker 1: like oh, the Murdoch empire splitting from Trump, and the 1248 01:03:52,040 --> 01:03:53,920 Speaker 1: New York Post and Wall Street Journal put out these 1249 01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:56,400 Speaker 1: op eds against him, and they haven't had him on 1250 01:03:56,440 --> 01:03:58,960 Speaker 1: Fox News and maybe they're trying to shift away, and 1251 01:03:59,000 --> 01:04:02,040 Speaker 1: they ran that like disame his Puffy's utter propaganda for 1252 01:04:02,120 --> 01:04:05,840 Speaker 1: o Desanta's propaganda. No, they all fell in mine too, 1253 01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:09,200 Speaker 1: because ultimately, it's you know, it's business and the bases 1254 01:04:09,240 --> 01:04:11,880 Speaker 1: with Trump, and so when it's time to go and 1255 01:04:11,960 --> 01:04:14,080 Speaker 1: do whatever it was that he wants them to do, 1256 01:04:14,160 --> 01:04:18,240 Speaker 1: and to say they didn't think about it for an instant. 1257 01:04:18,280 --> 01:04:22,400 Speaker 1: There wasn't a single moment of hesitation. Every single host 1258 01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:25,160 Speaker 1: on the talking points just like that, the minute it happened. 1259 01:04:25,160 --> 01:04:26,880 Speaker 1: They didn't need to wait for the details. They didn't 1260 01:04:26,880 --> 01:04:29,960 Speaker 1: need information, they didn't need facts. They knew that they 1261 01:04:30,000 --> 01:04:31,720 Speaker 1: had to go to the mat to defend this guy 1262 01:04:31,760 --> 01:04:33,800 Speaker 1: in the most over the top way possible, some of 1263 01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:36,080 Speaker 1: which we played on this show. So yeah, I mean, 1264 01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:38,160 Speaker 1: it just shows you and in terms of the political 1265 01:04:38,160 --> 01:04:41,800 Speaker 1: calculation of when he should announce, I think in terms 1266 01:04:41,880 --> 01:04:46,439 Speaker 1: of his own personal political interest, I think the people 1267 01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:49,200 Speaker 1: that are saying go for it now right, I think 1268 01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:52,880 Speaker 1: it would be another blow to the Republican Party's chances 1269 01:04:52,880 --> 01:04:57,640 Speaker 1: in the midterms. That is my assessment, because what they 1270 01:04:57,760 --> 01:05:00,920 Speaker 1: want is to make this all about Biden, be a 1271 01:05:00,920 --> 01:05:04,640 Speaker 1: referendum on Biden. He's got trash approval ratings, people very 1272 01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:07,240 Speaker 1: dissatisfied with the economy eight percent on say it's on 1273 01:05:07,240 --> 01:05:11,280 Speaker 1: the wrong track. If the election is about that, they romp. 1274 01:05:11,600 --> 01:05:14,560 Speaker 1: If it's a more like a twenty eighteen dynamic where 1275 01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:16,960 Speaker 1: it's like all about Trump and how you feel about him, 1276 01:05:16,960 --> 01:05:18,640 Speaker 1: and how do you feel about stop the steal? And oh, 1277 01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:20,440 Speaker 1: by the way, what about what they're going to do 1278 01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:23,160 Speaker 1: with you with abortion? And you know the extremism there. 1279 01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:26,840 Speaker 1: That's a very different landscape. So yeah, I'm sure that 1280 01:05:27,000 --> 01:05:29,800 Speaker 1: Republican congressional leaders are very much hoping that Trump waits 1281 01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:33,040 Speaker 1: till after the midterms, but he doesn't definitely doesn't care, 1282 01:05:33,480 --> 01:05:36,680 Speaker 1: and I do think it serves his personal interests while 1283 01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:40,120 Speaker 1: everyone literally everyone on that side just spent the knee 1284 01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:42,280 Speaker 1: to go ahead and announce. Now, yep, I think you're right. Okay, 1285 01:05:42,320 --> 01:05:44,840 Speaker 1: let's talk about Ukraine usually have a media block, but 1286 01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:46,440 Speaker 1: we had to talk about so much about Trump, we 1287 01:05:46,480 --> 01:05:49,120 Speaker 1: can't drop what's happening in the most consequential war in 1288 01:05:49,160 --> 01:05:52,240 Speaker 1: Europe since World War Two. So there's been actually a 1289 01:05:52,280 --> 01:05:56,560 Speaker 1: pretty significant political development with Finland, our new NATO. Ally, 1290 01:05:56,640 --> 01:05:58,560 Speaker 1: let's go and put that up there on the screen. 1291 01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:02,600 Speaker 1: Finland and who is also in NATO, are urging the 1292 01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:08,360 Speaker 1: European Union to stop issuing tourist visia to all Russian citizens. 1293 01:06:08,360 --> 01:06:12,440 Speaker 1: So Helsinki says that Russians are entering their country and 1294 01:06:12,640 --> 01:06:16,360 Speaker 1: using their airports to actually fly elsewhere within the EU. 1295 01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:19,200 Speaker 1: They do not want Russians to be able to traverse 1296 01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:22,560 Speaker 1: the EU whatsoever. They're saying that this is a violation 1297 01:06:22,920 --> 01:06:25,840 Speaker 1: of some of the sanctions and especially a circumvention of 1298 01:06:25,920 --> 01:06:28,480 Speaker 1: air travel in order to try and destroy the Russian 1299 01:06:28,760 --> 01:06:32,640 Speaker 1: air travel industry. Now, Moscow and Aeroflot and all of 1300 01:06:32,640 --> 01:06:35,280 Speaker 1: them have always actually kind of operated as a waypoint 1301 01:06:35,360 --> 01:06:39,240 Speaker 1: for some airlines and already seeing reports that the Aeroflot 1302 01:06:39,280 --> 01:06:42,600 Speaker 1: and others are having trouble servicing their Boeing seven thirty sevens. 1303 01:06:42,800 --> 01:06:44,800 Speaker 1: This happened to Iran, you know, they've been flying the 1304 01:06:44,840 --> 01:06:47,439 Speaker 1: same jets since like the nineteen seventies. They got quite 1305 01:06:47,440 --> 01:06:50,320 Speaker 1: a depth actually at figuring out how to still run 1306 01:06:50,480 --> 01:06:53,960 Speaker 1: Iran air but Russia is still in trouble. I think 1307 01:06:54,000 --> 01:06:56,680 Speaker 1: though that this just shows you a tremendous at really 1308 01:06:56,800 --> 01:06:59,760 Speaker 1: frankly escalation on their part, because actually it's interesting. You know, 1309 01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:02,120 Speaker 1: was traveling when I was coming back from India and 1310 01:07:02,160 --> 01:07:03,800 Speaker 1: I saw a bunch of Russians in the airports and 1311 01:07:03,800 --> 01:07:05,400 Speaker 1: I was like, Wow, where are you guys going. I 1312 01:07:05,440 --> 01:07:06,880 Speaker 1: was like, I can't can't even believe you're allowed to 1313 01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:10,600 Speaker 1: go anywhere. But what it is is that the tourist 1314 01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:16,040 Speaker 1: visa ban would effectively apply to hundreds of thousands of 1315 01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:19,000 Speaker 1: not only people who are students, but it would bleed 1316 01:07:19,040 --> 01:07:22,760 Speaker 1: into sports events, It would bleed into all sorts of 1317 01:07:22,800 --> 01:07:26,840 Speaker 1: like civil society activity which had been continuing. We talked 1318 01:07:26,880 --> 01:07:29,080 Speaker 1: about Wimbledon, you know, so it's not like Wimbledon had 1319 01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:31,840 Speaker 1: already banned them. But there are many other obviously equal 1320 01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:35,120 Speaker 1: applications of this, and the vice versa treatment of that 1321 01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:38,400 Speaker 1: would really bring back an iron curtain the likes of 1322 01:07:38,440 --> 01:07:41,720 Speaker 1: which Europe has not seen since the nineteen fifties, the 1323 01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:45,200 Speaker 1: nineteen sixties, which is just remarkable when you consider it. 1324 01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:47,640 Speaker 1: So it is a this is a big escalation on 1325 01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:50,880 Speaker 1: their part, and if anything, this would really I wouldn't 1326 01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:54,760 Speaker 1: say escalate things with the government, but at the citizenry 1327 01:07:54,840 --> 01:07:58,439 Speaker 1: level for Russians, I think this would probably send a 1328 01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:01,280 Speaker 1: very hostile message. I'm not saying that isn't necessarily a 1329 01:08:01,280 --> 01:08:03,120 Speaker 1: reason to do it, but just telling you, like, if 1330 01:08:03,120 --> 01:08:06,000 Speaker 1: you care about making sure that the Russian population isn't 1331 01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:09,160 Speaker 1: as susceptible to putin and all of that, this would 1332 01:08:09,200 --> 01:08:12,640 Speaker 1: almost certainly send that signal to the Russian people of like, hey, 1333 01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:15,920 Speaker 1: you can't even go to Berlin. There are no places 1334 01:08:15,920 --> 01:08:19,400 Speaker 1: that you've been going for completely it's completely unjustifiable. I mean, 1335 01:08:19,439 --> 01:08:21,719 Speaker 1: how can you say this is a you know, basically 1336 01:08:21,760 --> 01:08:24,519 Speaker 1: a dictator in Putin who's doing whatever he wants without 1337 01:08:24,520 --> 01:08:28,120 Speaker 1: any democratics incent and then impose these kind of sanctions 1338 01:08:28,160 --> 01:08:30,760 Speaker 1: on ordinary people who you just said have no say 1339 01:08:30,920 --> 01:08:35,240 Speaker 1: in what the government is ultimately doing. It's just ranked xenophobia, 1340 01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:39,280 Speaker 1: I mean, plays to the worst sort of grotesque human instincts. 1341 01:08:39,280 --> 01:08:41,839 Speaker 1: And then to your point, just in terms of strategic calculation, 1342 01:08:41,920 --> 01:08:44,439 Speaker 1: please rite into Putin's hands, because his narrative has always 1343 01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:46,599 Speaker 1: been they hate you, the West is against us, they 1344 01:08:46,600 --> 01:08:49,000 Speaker 1: want to destroy us. And then when you levy these 1345 01:08:49,080 --> 01:08:53,639 Speaker 1: kinds of sanctions that hit just just indiscriminately ordinary Russians, 1346 01:08:53,680 --> 01:08:55,360 Speaker 1: which you know these aren't the first ones that would 1347 01:08:55,400 --> 01:08:59,840 Speaker 1: do that, but very sort of personalized. Yeah, you're backing 1348 01:08:59,880 --> 01:09:02,400 Speaker 1: up basically what he's been trying to sell to the population. 1349 01:09:02,640 --> 01:09:05,680 Speaker 1: So I think it's gross. There was another headline that 1350 01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:08,840 Speaker 1: I also thought was really gross, and franklys Or of 1351 01:09:09,000 --> 01:09:12,320 Speaker 1: sociopathic the US is telling Africa that they can buy 1352 01:09:12,400 --> 01:09:16,040 Speaker 1: Russian grain, but they can't buy Russian oil, and some 1353 01:09:16,160 --> 01:09:20,639 Speaker 1: of these nations are suffering on a massive scale. Here's 1354 01:09:20,680 --> 01:09:22,720 Speaker 1: what they say. African nations are free to buy grain 1355 01:09:22,760 --> 01:09:25,439 Speaker 1: from Russia, but could face consequences if they trade in 1356 01:09:25,600 --> 01:09:29,400 Speaker 1: US sanction commodities such as Russian oil. The US Ambassador 1357 01:09:29,400 --> 01:09:32,120 Speaker 1: to the UN said Thursday. Here's her quote. This is 1358 01:09:32,160 --> 01:09:36,320 Speaker 1: Linda Thomas Greenfield. Countries can buy Russian agricultural products, including 1359 01:09:36,320 --> 01:09:39,360 Speaker 1: fertilizer and wheat, but if a country decides to engage 1360 01:09:39,360 --> 01:09:42,240 Speaker 1: with Russia where there are sanctions, then they are branking 1361 01:09:42,360 --> 01:09:46,400 Speaker 1: those sanctions. This was said while she was visiting Uganda. 1362 01:09:46,520 --> 01:09:50,799 Speaker 1: These nations are suffering, I mean the amount of famine, 1363 01:09:51,040 --> 01:09:55,080 Speaker 1: the amount of impoverishment, just how much they are struggling 1364 01:09:55,240 --> 01:09:59,479 Speaker 1: with inflation and with climate crisis and droughts and all 1365 01:09:59,560 --> 01:10:02,000 Speaker 1: kinds of shoes with their own crops. And then you're 1366 01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:04,920 Speaker 1: going to say like, sorry, you can't buy the cheaper 1367 01:10:05,080 --> 01:10:09,040 Speaker 1: Russian oil. It's I think it's really gross. I think 1368 01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:11,280 Speaker 1: it's really heartless, and I think it's really wrong. There's 1369 01:10:11,280 --> 01:10:13,080 Speaker 1: just no two ways around. Well, the real issue too, 1370 01:10:13,120 --> 01:10:15,040 Speaker 1: and actually they even point to this is they're like, hey, 1371 01:10:15,720 --> 01:10:18,280 Speaker 1: you know this would actually have a major impact also 1372 01:10:18,360 --> 01:10:20,280 Speaker 1: on people who are in Russia who don't want to 1373 01:10:20,320 --> 01:10:22,320 Speaker 1: be in Russia. It's like you have a lot of 1374 01:10:22,320 --> 01:10:25,640 Speaker 1: brain drain, which already happened, probably continuing daily, so it 1375 01:10:25,760 --> 01:10:31,280 Speaker 1: actually penalizes also like any friendly Western friendly Russia in Russia. 1376 01:10:31,840 --> 01:10:34,559 Speaker 1: And one of the major concerns that we saw is 1377 01:10:34,600 --> 01:10:38,640 Speaker 1: that one possibility that's being floated in Estonia is the 1378 01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:43,200 Speaker 1: possible closure of the Estonian Russian border, where there's actually 1379 01:10:43,200 --> 01:10:46,240 Speaker 1: a significant amount of cross trade that occurs there but 1380 01:10:46,360 --> 01:10:49,360 Speaker 1: also is a major entry point for Russians into the 1381 01:10:49,400 --> 01:10:52,960 Speaker 1: euro Union right in a tornado space. Finland also reportedly 1382 01:10:53,000 --> 01:10:56,800 Speaker 1: considering this now it's being currently talked off. But look, 1383 01:10:56,840 --> 01:10:59,160 Speaker 1: we're entering that phase of the war where there's like 1384 01:10:59,160 --> 01:11:01,880 Speaker 1: a grinding things going on and some people are searching 1385 01:11:01,880 --> 01:11:04,439 Speaker 1: for like that one weird trick that might push things 1386 01:11:04,640 --> 01:11:07,559 Speaker 1: in the right direction, and that's usually when escalation goes 1387 01:11:07,720 --> 01:11:09,639 Speaker 1: to the next level. Let's go to the next one 1388 01:11:09,680 --> 01:11:11,960 Speaker 1: up there. This actually shows what's happening on the ground 1389 01:11:11,960 --> 01:11:15,360 Speaker 1: in Ukraine. So we have floated that the Ukraine is 1390 01:11:15,400 --> 01:11:17,360 Speaker 1: going to be launched or Ukraine is going to be 1391 01:11:17,479 --> 01:11:20,519 Speaker 1: launching a counter offensive, and they officially began that let's 1392 01:11:20,520 --> 01:11:23,040 Speaker 1: go and put this up there on the screen. They 1393 01:11:23,120 --> 01:11:27,120 Speaker 1: launched their southern counter offensive, actually beginning with a major 1394 01:11:27,200 --> 01:11:30,960 Speaker 1: strike in Crimea on a Russian air base. So that 1395 01:11:31,120 --> 01:11:34,360 Speaker 1: blast is what Ukraine is saying as a major counter 1396 01:11:34,400 --> 01:11:36,800 Speaker 1: offensive that is being launched both in the south to 1397 01:11:37,040 --> 01:11:42,360 Speaker 1: reclaim Russian seized territory. The strike itself was largely symbolic. 1398 01:11:42,520 --> 01:11:44,679 Speaker 1: It was meant as a strike by the Ukrainian government 1399 01:11:44,760 --> 01:11:47,760 Speaker 1: obviously on Crimea, which was annexed by Russia back in 1400 01:11:47,760 --> 01:11:52,400 Speaker 1: twenty fourteen, considered by the Russians as actual Russian territory. However, 1401 01:11:52,840 --> 01:11:55,640 Speaker 1: Zelenski saying that you know, Crimea will always be Ukrainian 1402 01:11:55,920 --> 01:11:58,280 Speaker 1: and that this is a major strike to show that 1403 01:11:58,320 --> 01:12:01,160 Speaker 1: they're not going to give up on any fronts. The Ukrainians, 1404 01:12:01,240 --> 01:12:03,599 Speaker 1: confirming also say that this is the beginning of their 1405 01:12:03,640 --> 01:12:06,040 Speaker 1: actual counter offensive. So this is something that we all 1406 01:12:06,080 --> 01:12:09,120 Speaker 1: need to watch very very closely. The actual progress of 1407 01:12:09,120 --> 01:12:11,120 Speaker 1: this counter offensive is going to tell us a lot 1408 01:12:11,120 --> 01:12:17,280 Speaker 1: about the Ukrainian military's actual ability to conduct an offensive mission. Now. Currently, 1409 01:12:17,320 --> 01:12:19,720 Speaker 1: they've been fighting defensively, they've been fighting quite well, but 1410 01:12:19,840 --> 01:12:22,360 Speaker 1: they did lose a significant amount of ground in the east. 1411 01:12:22,600 --> 01:12:24,960 Speaker 1: If they are unable with the multi billion dollars of 1412 01:12:25,000 --> 01:12:27,799 Speaker 1: aid given to them by the United States, by the EU, 1413 01:12:28,080 --> 01:12:30,240 Speaker 1: by all of the European countries, and they're unable to 1414 01:12:30,280 --> 01:12:33,320 Speaker 1: take back any significant territory. It just tells us that 1415 01:12:33,360 --> 01:12:35,599 Speaker 1: it's not going to happen at this point. So all 1416 01:12:35,640 --> 01:12:39,120 Speaker 1: eyes currently on this. It literally just began yesterday, major 1417 01:12:39,120 --> 01:12:41,720 Speaker 1: symbolic strike on Crimea, and we're going to see how 1418 01:12:41,720 --> 01:12:43,519 Speaker 1: it goes. Yeah, and there's I think two other things 1419 01:12:43,560 --> 01:12:46,599 Speaker 1: to say about it. One is, you know, this shows 1420 01:12:46,640 --> 01:12:49,880 Speaker 1: that Ukrainians still have maximal stains. Oh yeah, bingo. They 1421 01:12:49,920 --> 01:12:52,160 Speaker 1: don't want to just go back to the status quo 1422 01:12:52,280 --> 01:12:54,759 Speaker 1: prior to the war. They want it all back because 1423 01:12:54,800 --> 01:12:58,160 Speaker 1: remember before the war, Russia had Crimea. Of course the 1424 01:12:58,200 --> 01:13:01,479 Speaker 1: Ukrainians didn't like it, but they also weren't really fighting it. 1425 01:13:01,720 --> 01:13:03,680 Speaker 1: That was sort of the reality and the facts on 1426 01:13:03,720 --> 01:13:06,640 Speaker 1: the ground. And Russia also controlled these sort of you know, 1427 01:13:06,680 --> 01:13:10,000 Speaker 1: breakaway regions in the East. So this signals, you know, 1428 01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:14,760 Speaker 1: Ukrainians have complete maximalist objectives and aims in the war. 1429 01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:17,920 Speaker 1: That's significant. There's also questions about what this means in 1430 01:13:18,000 --> 01:13:20,920 Speaker 1: terms of the types of missiles that we have been supplying, 1431 01:13:21,240 --> 01:13:23,240 Speaker 1: so headline here in The Times that says a strike 1432 01:13:23,400 --> 01:13:29,200 Speaker 1: suggests Ukraine may have longer range missiles and particularly raises 1433 01:13:29,240 --> 01:13:32,240 Speaker 1: the questions whether the US has provided Ukraine with longer 1434 01:13:32,360 --> 01:13:34,840 Speaker 1: range tactical missiles. They have a quote here from a 1435 01:13:34,880 --> 01:13:38,280 Speaker 1: former Ukrainian official who hinted that the US had supplied 1436 01:13:38,280 --> 01:13:41,719 Speaker 1: missiles with a longer range Takiv quote. As you can see, 1437 01:13:42,040 --> 01:13:44,639 Speaker 1: missiles with a range of two hundred to three hundred 1438 01:13:44,720 --> 01:13:49,040 Speaker 1: kilometers are already being used in our country. This is 1439 01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:52,920 Speaker 1: according to a former advisor to Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs. 1440 01:13:52,920 --> 01:13:55,760 Speaker 1: So take all of that for what it's worth. But 1441 01:13:55,920 --> 01:13:58,760 Speaker 1: why is this significant? Because Russia has always been very 1442 01:13:58,800 --> 01:14:02,439 Speaker 1: sensitive to the idea that the weapons we are providing 1443 01:14:02,600 --> 01:14:06,719 Speaker 1: Ukraine with could be used on Russian territory. The longer 1444 01:14:06,840 --> 01:14:09,479 Speaker 1: range the missile, the more that they see that as 1445 01:14:09,479 --> 01:14:12,400 Speaker 1: a direct threat to their own nation. And it's something 1446 01:14:12,400 --> 01:14:15,080 Speaker 1: that the Biden administration has claimed to be very sensitive too. 1447 01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:16,920 Speaker 1: So that's something to keep an eye on. Let's keep 1448 01:14:16,920 --> 01:14:18,920 Speaker 1: an eye on all those things. And you know, also 1449 01:14:19,280 --> 01:14:22,920 Speaker 1: if Ukrainians, this is the other thing with precision military equipment, 1450 01:14:22,960 --> 01:14:28,759 Speaker 1: are striking inside of Crimea, which again the Russians consider Russian. 1451 01:14:29,200 --> 01:14:31,200 Speaker 1: I'm not saying that's just I'm saying that's what they 1452 01:14:31,240 --> 01:14:33,759 Speaker 1: consider it. That also could put us in a tough spot. 1453 01:14:33,920 --> 01:14:36,120 Speaker 1: So we also should watch to see how they are 1454 01:14:36,120 --> 01:14:38,680 Speaker 1: going to be conducting themselves in that regard and how 1455 01:14:38,680 --> 01:14:45,280 Speaker 1: they'll be reacting to this specific situation. Indeed, all right, sorry, 1456 01:14:45,360 --> 01:14:47,120 Speaker 1: what are you looking at? Well? The first time I 1457 01:14:47,200 --> 01:14:49,680 Speaker 1: learned that Trump was just different was weeks after the 1458 01:14:49,680 --> 01:14:53,160 Speaker 1: first twenty sixteen presidential debate. If you don't remember, it 1459 01:14:53,200 --> 01:14:55,880 Speaker 1: began with the famous exchange between Megan Kelly and Trump 1460 01:14:55,960 --> 01:14:58,320 Speaker 1: when she asked him about his past language on women, 1461 01:14:58,600 --> 01:15:02,679 Speaker 1: and he responded, quote only Rosie O'Donnell. I remember thinking, 1462 01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:05,680 Speaker 1: that is one of the most insane things I've ever 1463 01:15:05,720 --> 01:15:08,400 Speaker 1: seen in my life. There's no way he's going to last. 1464 01:15:08,640 --> 01:15:10,400 Speaker 1: And then he serves to the very top of the polls. 1465 01:15:10,560 --> 01:15:12,639 Speaker 1: He basically stayed there for the rest of the election. 1466 01:15:13,080 --> 01:15:15,200 Speaker 1: The teflon aspect of Trump is one of the most 1467 01:15:15,200 --> 01:15:17,840 Speaker 1: maddening things about him to his opponents, as he also 1468 01:15:17,960 --> 01:15:20,200 Speaker 1: intuited he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and some 1469 01:15:20,240 --> 01:15:23,320 Speaker 1: people would still support him. Trying to understand exactly why 1470 01:15:23,360 --> 01:15:25,559 Speaker 1: in many ways, is basically what I've spent the majority 1471 01:15:25,600 --> 01:15:28,280 Speaker 1: of my career trying to understand, and what I ultimately 1472 01:15:28,280 --> 01:15:30,000 Speaker 1: settled on is that it has a lot less to 1473 01:15:30,040 --> 01:15:31,920 Speaker 1: do with Trump and a lot more to do with 1474 01:15:31,920 --> 01:15:34,599 Speaker 1: his opponents. For all of the handwringing about how can 1475 01:15:34,640 --> 01:15:37,280 Speaker 1: these rednacks stand by him, there's never any real self 1476 01:15:37,320 --> 01:15:39,519 Speaker 1: reflection as to why they would even be willing to 1477 01:15:39,600 --> 01:15:43,040 Speaker 1: cheer on such a deeply flawed man through everything, and 1478 01:15:43,080 --> 01:15:45,720 Speaker 1: that occupies my mind. In the context of this FBI raid, 1479 01:15:46,040 --> 01:15:48,760 Speaker 1: there is an aspect to where the most giddy MSNBC 1480 01:15:48,920 --> 01:15:52,360 Speaker 1: resistance liberals are cheering, the walls are finally closing in, 1481 01:15:52,439 --> 01:15:54,960 Speaker 1: and it's finally over. The raid is the tip of 1482 01:15:55,000 --> 01:15:57,479 Speaker 1: the iceberg. He's being deposed by the New York AG. 1483 01:15:57,960 --> 01:15:59,960 Speaker 1: As for the raid itself, there's just no way it's 1484 01:16:00,000 --> 01:16:03,400 Speaker 1: about classified materials, right, They have to have more. And 1485 01:16:03,439 --> 01:16:05,559 Speaker 1: while I confess at least some of that was in 1486 01:16:05,560 --> 01:16:08,360 Speaker 1: my thinking, I have also to apply the hard earned 1487 01:16:08,360 --> 01:16:11,040 Speaker 1: cynicism that governed the way that I approached these so 1488 01:16:11,160 --> 01:16:15,080 Speaker 1: called scandals throughout the Trump years. Truly consider the maddening 1489 01:16:15,160 --> 01:16:18,720 Speaker 1: number of scandals that we were supposedly career enders and Groundbreakers, 1490 01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:22,280 Speaker 1: which years later you don't even remember. Trump was me 1491 01:16:22,400 --> 01:16:26,080 Speaker 1: tooed by dozens of women Milania. Trump had that plagiarized speech. 1492 01:16:26,320 --> 01:16:28,840 Speaker 1: He didn't divest himself from the Trump Hotel. There was 1493 01:16:28,880 --> 01:16:31,960 Speaker 1: the Muslim band, There was Kasiir Khan's wife. John McCain 1494 01:16:32,040 --> 01:16:34,720 Speaker 1: is not a war hero, insulting Jeb Bush and Ted 1495 01:16:34,800 --> 01:16:39,200 Speaker 1: Cruz's wife, making fun of the disabled reporter access Hollywood, Russia. 1496 01:16:39,200 --> 01:16:42,160 Speaker 1: If you're listening and look, I left many of those out, 1497 01:16:42,360 --> 01:16:46,200 Speaker 1: but notice the theme every single one I listed happened 1498 01:16:46,200 --> 01:16:50,479 Speaker 1: before he even won the presidency. From there. The list 1499 01:16:50,520 --> 01:16:53,760 Speaker 1: is genuinely endless, and I'll get PTSD if I list 1500 01:16:53,800 --> 01:16:56,479 Speaker 1: them all out. But the theme to every single one 1501 01:16:56,800 --> 01:17:00,960 Speaker 1: was clear, breathless news coverage in disbelief. This has simply 1502 01:17:01,000 --> 01:17:03,839 Speaker 1: never been done before. This will be the end. Inviting 1503 01:17:03,920 --> 01:17:08,879 Speaker 1: Russians into the Oval Office, firing Comy, the tapes, Obama Gate, spying, 1504 01:17:09,160 --> 01:17:12,360 Speaker 1: the appointment of Robert Muller, the will he won't he dance? 1505 01:17:12,479 --> 01:17:16,280 Speaker 1: A firing Jeff Sessions, the obstruction of justice speculation, the 1506 01:17:16,320 --> 01:17:18,840 Speaker 1: back and forth on whether Muller would depose him or not, 1507 01:17:19,160 --> 01:17:21,600 Speaker 1: the final release of the Muller Report. Then when that 1508 01:17:21,680 --> 01:17:25,439 Speaker 1: wasn't enough, the testimony of Muller himself, Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, 1509 01:17:25,640 --> 01:17:29,200 Speaker 1: Michael Abinati. Shall I continue the common theme, if you 1510 01:17:29,240 --> 01:17:32,120 Speaker 1: will remember, is everything that I just listened for the 1511 01:17:32,240 --> 01:17:35,640 Speaker 1: grounds was why he was truly done this time, and 1512 01:17:35,680 --> 01:17:38,519 Speaker 1: with Muller in particular, I'm really getting flashbacks right now. 1513 01:17:38,680 --> 01:17:41,400 Speaker 1: Nearly every week in twenty seventeen, there was a headline 1514 01:17:41,400 --> 01:17:46,200 Speaker 1: that've basically read something like this, Muller is investigating possible X. 1515 01:17:46,680 --> 01:17:49,519 Speaker 1: Then people would take that as proof that Muller actually 1516 01:17:49,520 --> 01:17:53,080 Speaker 1: had evidence of X and had Trump dead to rights. 1517 01:17:53,320 --> 01:17:56,320 Speaker 1: The conversation then came around to what would happen when 1518 01:17:56,360 --> 01:17:59,640 Speaker 1: this inevitable proof would materialize? And then the media and 1519 01:17:59,680 --> 01:18:02,120 Speaker 1: the MBC and others would forget that actually they hadn't 1520 01:18:02,120 --> 01:18:04,760 Speaker 1: proven anything. And then just because the FBI has brought it, 1521 01:18:04,840 --> 01:18:07,080 Speaker 1: in my opinion, far too much leeway, they can actually 1522 01:18:07,160 --> 01:18:11,160 Speaker 1: quote investigate anything. For years we lived through those headlines. 1523 01:18:11,360 --> 01:18:14,880 Speaker 1: Muller has subpoenaed this, Ivanka, has sat with Congress. Oh 1524 01:18:14,920 --> 01:18:18,120 Speaker 1: my god, he interviewed Jared, Oh my god, he interviewed Bannon, 1525 01:18:18,240 --> 01:18:20,920 Speaker 1: Oh my god, he interviewed Paul Maniford and In the end, 1526 01:18:21,040 --> 01:18:24,400 Speaker 1: what happened. We investigated a lot, and he came up 1527 01:18:24,439 --> 01:18:28,439 Speaker 1: with what nothing simply the portrait of a campaign run 1528 01:18:28,479 --> 01:18:31,599 Speaker 1: by a bunch of morons who associated with unsavory characters. 1529 01:18:31,800 --> 01:18:33,639 Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, I could have told you that one 1530 01:18:33,760 --> 01:18:35,920 Speaker 1: there is nobody on earth who voted for Donald Trump 1531 01:18:35,920 --> 01:18:37,760 Speaker 1: and thought, you know what, that's a real stand up 1532 01:18:37,760 --> 01:18:40,360 Speaker 1: guy who conducts himself in a perfect business manner. The 1533 01:18:40,400 --> 01:18:43,000 Speaker 1: real point I'm making is that the teflon aspect that 1534 01:18:43,000 --> 01:18:45,840 Speaker 1: Trump appears to have really is not a testament to 1535 01:18:45,880 --> 01:18:48,680 Speaker 1: any particular genius or skill that he has. It is 1536 01:18:48,720 --> 01:18:52,800 Speaker 1: a testament to the mediocrity and the idiocy of his opponents. 1537 01:18:53,040 --> 01:18:55,639 Speaker 1: The opposition party in the media, handing gluff for years 1538 01:18:55,760 --> 01:18:58,320 Speaker 1: set the expectation for their base that Trump was a 1539 01:18:58,400 --> 01:19:01,120 Speaker 1: once in a lifetime threat for who norms and rules 1540 01:19:01,200 --> 01:19:04,120 Speaker 1: do not apply, and which any break the glass measure 1541 01:19:04,160 --> 01:19:07,240 Speaker 1: that existed should be breached to banish him from history. 1542 01:19:07,520 --> 01:19:10,120 Speaker 1: Again and again, they look to Mueller or the DOJ 1543 01:19:10,520 --> 01:19:15,000 Speaker 1: to save them from a political reality they created by 1544 01:19:15,120 --> 01:19:18,479 Speaker 1: overreaching and by corrupting higher institutions like the FBI the 1545 01:19:18,560 --> 01:19:21,639 Speaker 1: DOJ and polarizing them politically that the condition is now 1546 01:19:21,680 --> 01:19:25,400 Speaker 1: set that basically, no matter what people find here, no 1547 01:19:25,479 --> 01:19:28,360 Speaker 1: one will be satisfied. My personal bet is we are 1548 01:19:28,479 --> 01:19:31,040 Speaker 1: likely to land somewhere in the middle. The FBI will 1549 01:19:31,040 --> 01:19:35,360 Speaker 1: find something, perhaps of consequence minor consequence. After some significant 1550 01:19:35,479 --> 01:19:38,479 Speaker 1: legal wrangling and months of speculation, we will land at 1551 01:19:38,479 --> 01:19:41,160 Speaker 1: some point of settlement where Trump basically just walks away. 1552 01:19:41,520 --> 01:19:44,400 Speaker 1: This will simply vindicate all sides. The Trump people will 1553 01:19:44,400 --> 01:19:47,400 Speaker 1: declare victory to show that he survived and is quote innocent, 1554 01:19:47,520 --> 01:19:50,280 Speaker 1: even if he's not. The MSNBC crowd it isn't enough. 1555 01:19:50,439 --> 01:19:52,639 Speaker 1: It shows he's a criminal. Donnie will live to fight 1556 01:19:52,680 --> 01:19:55,960 Speaker 1: another day. This will only feed both the persecution complexes 1557 01:19:56,000 --> 01:19:58,360 Speaker 1: of the right justifying a paradigm shift and how they 1558 01:19:58,360 --> 01:20:01,360 Speaker 1: approach the FBI and the DOJ, and will actually erode 1559 01:20:01,400 --> 01:20:04,760 Speaker 1: confidence in the actual justice system amongst the liberals set 1560 01:20:04,880 --> 01:20:08,879 Speaker 1: who will say, well, then even more extraordinary measures are justified. 1561 01:20:09,120 --> 01:20:10,960 Speaker 1: And to me it actually vindicates that. We did a 1562 01:20:11,080 --> 01:20:13,960 Speaker 1: segment on our show on Tuesday when people were breathlessly 1563 01:20:14,000 --> 01:20:17,759 Speaker 1: sharing speculation that if Trump was convicted of mishandling classified information, 1564 01:20:18,040 --> 01:20:20,559 Speaker 1: it would bar him from holding federal office. With the 1565 01:20:20,560 --> 01:20:23,280 Speaker 1: people sharing it forgot to mention is the Supreme Court 1566 01:20:23,320 --> 01:20:26,280 Speaker 1: has already ruled that the only stipulation on qualifications for 1567 01:20:26,360 --> 01:20:30,120 Speaker 1: holding office stand in the Constitution for the President that 1568 01:20:30,160 --> 01:20:33,719 Speaker 1: even Congress cannot change them. Thus, there is no one 1569 01:20:33,840 --> 01:20:37,519 Speaker 1: cool trick to disqualify Trump from office. There is actually 1570 01:20:37,560 --> 01:20:40,320 Speaker 1: one cool trick, and it's the hardest one beat him. 1571 01:20:40,640 --> 01:20:43,360 Speaker 1: It is more of a testament to the horrific handling 1572 01:20:43,360 --> 01:20:46,160 Speaker 1: of US policy under Joe Biden, the hollowness of the 1573 01:20:46,200 --> 01:20:49,920 Speaker 1: current Democratic Party and their sheer weakness. That Trump is 1574 01:20:50,080 --> 01:20:53,640 Speaker 1: even in a plausible position to win again. It is 1575 01:20:53,680 --> 01:20:56,479 Speaker 1: not because the system is rigged. It's because you suck. 1576 01:20:56,880 --> 01:20:59,560 Speaker 1: And the better he does, the more of an opportunity 1577 01:20:59,560 --> 01:21:02,720 Speaker 1: he has, is only a vindication of his opponent's lack 1578 01:21:02,760 --> 01:21:05,240 Speaker 1: of strength. If you cannot be Trump, then honestly, you 1579 01:21:05,280 --> 01:21:07,719 Speaker 1: deserve to lose. You deserve the backlash of the RAID 1580 01:21:07,920 --> 01:21:11,000 Speaker 1: and the radicalization of the GOP, because honestly, it is 1581 01:21:11,120 --> 01:21:13,320 Speaker 1: just as much your fault as it is theirs. And 1582 01:21:13,360 --> 01:21:15,439 Speaker 1: that's really what it is coming back to, Crystal. I mean, 1583 01:21:15,560 --> 01:21:17,840 Speaker 1: you can look at Trump as a symptom or the cause. 1584 01:21:17,960 --> 01:21:20,280 Speaker 1: And if you want to hear my reaction to Sagres's 1585 01:21:20,360 --> 01:21:26,480 Speaker 1: monologue become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. 1586 01:21:26,520 --> 01:21:28,759 Speaker 1: All right, Chrystl, what you take a look at? Well, Guys, 1587 01:21:28,840 --> 01:21:30,760 Speaker 1: I know most see the FBI search of mar A 1588 01:21:30,800 --> 01:21:34,240 Speaker 1: Lago as a potentially very divisive moment in American politics. 1589 01:21:34,240 --> 01:21:37,160 Speaker 1: But guys, you know, I'm always looking for an opportunity 1590 01:21:37,240 --> 01:21:39,880 Speaker 1: for some American unity, and thus I was cheered to 1591 01:21:39,920 --> 01:21:43,639 Speaker 1: see a rush of prominent conservatives embrace a long time 1592 01:21:43,760 --> 01:21:48,120 Speaker 1: lefty position coming around to a just and patriotic cause 1593 01:21:48,760 --> 01:21:53,200 Speaker 1: defunding the FBI. Candice Owan's announced on Twitter, quote, the 1594 01:21:53,320 --> 01:21:57,559 Speaker 1: FBI must be legally and formally dissolved. Then she said 1595 01:21:57,640 --> 01:21:59,360 Speaker 1: some other stuff. Don't worry too much about that. But 1596 01:21:59,400 --> 01:22:02,759 Speaker 1: then she can clar with this based call for action quote, 1597 01:22:03,040 --> 01:22:06,200 Speaker 1: left or right, we must all come together to fight 1598 01:22:06,320 --> 01:22:10,120 Speaker 1: this evil. Amen. Marjorie Taylor Green was more direct with 1599 01:22:10,160 --> 01:22:14,800 Speaker 1: a principled abolitionist take tweeting defund the FBI, and a 1600 01:22:14,840 --> 01:22:18,320 Speaker 1: former Trump official offered some specific and laudable steps in 1601 01:22:18,360 --> 01:22:20,960 Speaker 1: a Fox News interview with Laura Ingram. And I think 1602 01:22:20,960 --> 01:22:23,599 Speaker 1: this is a wake up call for those in Congress 1603 01:22:23,640 --> 01:22:25,800 Speaker 1: to be able to use the tools at their disposal 1604 01:22:26,160 --> 01:22:29,559 Speaker 1: to defund the FBI, to ask the right questions, and 1605 01:22:29,640 --> 01:22:33,200 Speaker 1: to prepare for a Church style commission next year if 1606 01:22:33,240 --> 01:22:36,640 Speaker 1: given a Republican majority, to dismantle the FBI into a 1607 01:22:36,720 --> 01:22:40,200 Speaker 1: thousand bits thousand bits. I like the way that sounds. Now, 1608 01:22:40,200 --> 01:22:42,759 Speaker 1: you'll recall that the Church Committee was a Congressional inquiry 1609 01:22:42,800 --> 01:22:45,519 Speaker 1: into massive deep state of uses perpetrated by j Edgar 1610 01:22:45,520 --> 01:22:48,679 Speaker 1: Hoover's FBI along with the CIA, mostly during the Civil 1611 01:22:48,800 --> 01:22:52,280 Speaker 1: Rights era. Its findings shocked the American public with revelations 1612 01:22:52,280 --> 01:22:56,320 Speaker 1: about how the FBI infiltrated, targeted, harassed, and surveilled a 1613 01:22:56,439 --> 01:22:59,040 Speaker 1: variety of leftist groups, from the Black Panthers, to anti 1614 01:22:59,080 --> 01:23:01,519 Speaker 1: war groups to gay rights activists, all under the co 1615 01:23:01,640 --> 01:23:06,639 Speaker 1: Intel pro program. They murdered charismatic and groundbreaking, groundbreaking Black 1616 01:23:06,680 --> 01:23:09,960 Speaker 1: Panther leader Fred Hampton. They systematically bugged the home and 1617 01:23:10,000 --> 01:23:13,000 Speaker 1: hotel rooms of Amil Kaye Junior. And just wait until 1618 01:23:13,040 --> 01:23:16,760 Speaker 1: our new comrades find out about what the CIA did. Now. Remarkably, 1619 01:23:16,800 --> 01:23:19,519 Speaker 1: the origins of the FBI were actually quite noble. It 1620 01:23:19,520 --> 01:23:23,400 Speaker 1: was launch under Tuddy Roosevelt as an executive branch investigatory 1621 01:23:23,400 --> 01:23:26,639 Speaker 1: team focused on trust busting and rooting out corporate abuse. 1622 01:23:27,040 --> 01:23:31,000 Speaker 1: This original mission, however, quickly expanded, and before long the FBI, 1623 01:23:31,080 --> 01:23:32,920 Speaker 1: then known as the Bureau of Investigation, was up to 1624 01:23:32,920 --> 01:23:35,160 Speaker 1: the sorts of corrupt behavior and domestic spying that we 1625 01:23:35,200 --> 01:23:37,960 Speaker 1: all know and hate it for. Here's how author Brian 1626 01:23:38,080 --> 01:23:42,280 Speaker 1: Burrow described it. After the FBI's founding quote, it had 1627 01:23:42,320 --> 01:23:45,640 Speaker 1: devolved over the ensuing fifteen years into a nest of 1628 01:23:45,720 --> 01:23:49,320 Speaker 1: nepotism and corruption. By the early nineteen twenties, its agents 1629 01:23:49,439 --> 01:23:53,160 Speaker 1: scattered across fifty domestic offices, were hired mostly as favors 1630 01:23:53,200 --> 01:23:56,920 Speaker 1: to politicians. Its most notorious employee, a con man named 1631 01:23:56,960 --> 01:24:02,000 Speaker 1: Gaston Means, earned his money blackmailing copersmen, selling liquor licenses 1632 01:24:02,040 --> 01:24:06,080 Speaker 1: to bootleggers, an auctioning presidential pardon. In the wake of 1633 01:24:06,120 --> 01:24:09,400 Speaker 1: a mid nineteen twenties congressional investigation, the Bureau acquired the 1634 01:24:09,479 --> 01:24:13,479 Speaker 1: nickname the Department of Easy Virtue. Love that, and it 1635 01:24:13,520 --> 01:24:15,240 Speaker 1: only got worse from there because the guy they brought 1636 01:24:15,280 --> 01:24:17,200 Speaker 1: in to clean up the joint, one and only, j 1637 01:24:17,439 --> 01:24:21,360 Speaker 1: Edgar Hoover, of murdering, surveilling unaccountable infamy. He ruled the 1638 01:24:21,439 --> 01:24:24,839 Speaker 1: FBI as his own personal kingdom, with complete lawlessness for decades, 1639 01:24:24,920 --> 01:24:27,760 Speaker 1: leading eventually to public outcry after the revelations of the 1640 01:24:27,800 --> 01:24:31,719 Speaker 1: aforementioned Church Committee. But FBI abuses are not just something 1641 01:24:31,720 --> 01:24:33,720 Speaker 1: to read about in the history books. They're real and 1642 01:24:33,720 --> 01:24:36,200 Speaker 1: they're continuing right up to this very day. The Bureau 1643 01:24:36,240 --> 01:24:39,600 Speaker 1: has routinely racially profiled, surveilled, and trapped a generation of 1644 01:24:39,640 --> 01:24:42,479 Speaker 1: young muslim Men post nine to eleven, preying on those 1645 01:24:42,479 --> 01:24:46,960 Speaker 1: who were either desperate, mentally unwell, or unintelligent and easily manipulated. 1646 01:24:47,280 --> 01:24:50,160 Speaker 1: And with a new focus on domestic terrorism, they decided 1647 01:24:50,160 --> 01:24:53,040 Speaker 1: to use the skills they gained creating terror plots that 1648 01:24:53,040 --> 01:24:56,080 Speaker 1: they could then pretend to disrupt. In order to manufacture 1649 01:24:56,080 --> 01:24:59,280 Speaker 1: a plot to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. A jury 1650 01:24:59,320 --> 01:25:02,280 Speaker 1: took the highly unusual step of letting two of those 1651 01:25:02,320 --> 01:25:07,439 Speaker 1: indicted off due to these Bureau abuses. Just recently, they 1652 01:25:07,560 --> 01:25:11,080 Speaker 1: violently rated the property of the African People's Socialist Party 1653 01:25:11,120 --> 01:25:13,719 Speaker 1: as part of what they said was an investigation into 1654 01:25:13,720 --> 01:25:17,920 Speaker 1: a Russian influence campaign. So yeah, bring on the Church Committee, 1655 01:25:17,960 --> 01:25:21,240 Speaker 1: expose their laws and abuse, defund them, and strip them 1656 01:25:21,320 --> 01:25:25,120 Speaker 1: of power. Lets fing go. Now what Candice and I 1657 01:25:25,120 --> 01:25:27,479 Speaker 1: both understand, I'm sure, is that it's not that we're 1658 01:25:27,479 --> 01:25:30,599 Speaker 1: opposed to the law being upheld. On the contrary, what's 1659 01:25:30,640 --> 01:25:33,519 Speaker 1: outrageous about the FBI and our entire criminal justice system 1660 01:25:33,800 --> 01:25:36,719 Speaker 1: is the two tier system of justice that protects elites 1661 01:25:36,920 --> 01:25:40,440 Speaker 1: while criminalizing the poor and the working class. What's outrageous 1662 01:25:40,520 --> 01:25:43,840 Speaker 1: is that it routinely violates our civil rights rather than 1663 01:25:43,880 --> 01:25:46,839 Speaker 1: fighting to uphold the law by protecting those civil rights. 1664 01:25:47,000 --> 01:25:50,920 Speaker 1: What's outrageous is that throughout its history, the FBI has 1665 01:25:50,960 --> 01:25:55,360 Speaker 1: put itself above the law, and no one, not law enforcement, 1666 01:25:55,600 --> 01:25:59,160 Speaker 1: not Wall Street bankers, not the president or former president 1667 01:25:59,360 --> 01:26:01,559 Speaker 1: of the United Slime States, should be above the law, 1668 01:26:01,880 --> 01:26:04,840 Speaker 1: right Candace now As one, a student online observer put it, 1669 01:26:05,200 --> 01:26:07,519 Speaker 1: the only correct position on the Trump mar A Lago 1670 01:26:07,600 --> 01:26:10,599 Speaker 1: raid is f Trump but also the FBI. And if 1671 01:26:10,600 --> 01:26:13,960 Speaker 1: we can't say both, let's be honest, You're not serious. 1672 01:26:13,960 --> 01:26:16,960 Speaker 1: Been pretty funny as Ken Clippenstein. And if you want 1673 01:26:16,960 --> 01:26:19,880 Speaker 1: to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium 1674 01:26:19,880 --> 01:26:26,679 Speaker 1: subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. So amidst everything else 1675 01:26:26,680 --> 01:26:29,120 Speaker 1: that is going on in Washington this week, we didn't 1676 01:26:29,120 --> 01:26:32,400 Speaker 1: want to lose sight of some really critical world affairs 1677 01:26:32,439 --> 01:26:35,120 Speaker 1: that continue to brew and bubble and cause a lot 1678 01:26:35,160 --> 01:26:37,360 Speaker 1: of fur reason for angst. There was an interview that 1679 01:26:37,400 --> 01:26:39,880 Speaker 1: caught my eye in Jacobin magazine. Let's go ahead and 1680 01:26:39,880 --> 01:26:42,559 Speaker 1: put this up on the screen, interview conducted by Branco 1681 01:26:42,600 --> 01:26:45,160 Speaker 1: Marcetek front of the show with Lyle Goldstein, who is 1682 01:26:45,160 --> 01:26:47,680 Speaker 1: a director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities and a 1683 01:26:47,720 --> 01:26:50,920 Speaker 1: former research professor at the US Naval War College. And 1684 01:26:50,960 --> 01:26:54,839 Speaker 1: he argues that we should not underestimate the incredible danger 1685 01:26:54,920 --> 01:26:57,479 Speaker 1: posed by the Taiwan crisis and makes a pretty compelling 1686 01:26:57,520 --> 01:27:00,720 Speaker 1: case that the media is not helping to under us 1687 01:27:00,760 --> 01:27:04,719 Speaker 1: to understand just how dangerous a situation this is. And Lyle, 1688 01:27:04,960 --> 01:27:07,679 Speaker 1: we are fortunate to have him join us now. Great 1689 01:27:07,720 --> 01:27:10,720 Speaker 1: to see you, so welcome. Give to you Ale, Yeah, 1690 01:27:10,840 --> 01:27:14,000 Speaker 1: glad to be here. Yeah, absolutely, So just lay out 1691 01:27:14,040 --> 01:27:17,080 Speaker 1: the case here for why you think this is such 1692 01:27:17,080 --> 01:27:20,760 Speaker 1: a dangerous situation. And you know, frankly, why you think 1693 01:27:20,760 --> 01:27:24,599 Speaker 1: that Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was such a foolish 1694 01:27:24,600 --> 01:27:31,599 Speaker 1: and provocative move. Well, as I see it, you know, 1695 01:27:31,920 --> 01:27:34,679 Speaker 1: China and the US are really on a collision course here. 1696 01:27:34,800 --> 01:27:40,000 Speaker 1: It's exceedingly dangerous. You know, I don't rule out that 1697 01:27:40,080 --> 01:27:42,320 Speaker 1: if there is a conflict, that it could be a 1698 01:27:42,439 --> 01:27:46,200 Speaker 1: nuclear conflict. You know, I did my dissertation on nuclear strategy, 1699 01:27:46,240 --> 01:27:48,800 Speaker 1: so I'm well versed on this, and unfortunately, I see 1700 01:27:49,040 --> 01:27:56,280 Speaker 1: plenty of paths toward dangerous escalation. So you know, it 1701 01:27:56,320 --> 01:28:01,240 Speaker 1: seems to me that you know, both are quite entrenched 1702 01:28:01,840 --> 01:28:04,040 Speaker 1: in their viewpoint. You know, I don't really have any 1703 01:28:04,080 --> 01:28:09,080 Speaker 1: doubt about China's intent to, you know, to try to 1704 01:28:09,120 --> 01:28:12,400 Speaker 1: bring Taiwan under its control, uh, maybe even in the 1705 01:28:12,439 --> 01:28:16,960 Speaker 1: near term. And you know, Washington seems highly uncertain. I mean, 1706 01:28:17,040 --> 01:28:21,320 Speaker 1: the very title of the strategy is strategic ambiguity. Uh, 1707 01:28:21,360 --> 01:28:24,799 Speaker 1: and you know there's little agreement about what that means. 1708 01:28:25,880 --> 01:28:30,599 Speaker 1: All attempts at clarification seemed to fail. Uh. And you know, 1709 01:28:30,880 --> 01:28:34,439 Speaker 1: in this crisis, I think we've seen, you know, some 1710 01:28:34,520 --> 01:28:39,439 Speaker 1: of the worst dynamics of how American domestic politics, you know, 1711 01:28:39,560 --> 01:28:42,599 Speaker 1: try to cope with foreign policy, where you know, more 1712 01:28:42,680 --> 01:28:45,960 Speaker 1: or less the Pentagon and National Security advisors appear to 1713 01:28:46,000 --> 01:28:48,599 Speaker 1: have been saying this is a bad idea. Certainly right 1714 01:28:48,640 --> 01:28:50,759 Speaker 1: now it's a bad idea the visit I'm talking about, 1715 01:28:51,560 --> 01:28:56,759 Speaker 1: and you know, a Pelosi indicating well, maybe she wouldn't 1716 01:28:56,800 --> 01:28:59,439 Speaker 1: go if the president was willing to step forward and 1717 01:28:59,479 --> 01:29:02,320 Speaker 1: say advise her not to go. And then you know, 1718 01:29:02,400 --> 01:29:05,920 Speaker 1: President Biden though apparently unwilling to you know, go on 1719 01:29:06,040 --> 01:29:09,840 Speaker 1: record saying she shouldn't go. So it's been, you know, 1720 01:29:11,320 --> 01:29:15,679 Speaker 1: kind of a hydra headed approach that has just led 1721 01:29:15,720 --> 01:29:18,679 Speaker 1: to more confusion. And of course the Chinese are watching 1722 01:29:18,680 --> 01:29:22,320 Speaker 1: these signals, and I'm troubled by all of this, you know, 1723 01:29:22,320 --> 01:29:25,920 Speaker 1: I agree, I think most regional experts, but others like 1724 01:29:25,960 --> 01:29:28,840 Speaker 1: Tom Friedman for example, said this was utterly reckless, and 1725 01:29:29,960 --> 01:29:32,080 Speaker 1: I agree. I think we're in a worse place today 1726 01:29:32,120 --> 01:29:34,160 Speaker 1: than we were a week ago. Yeah. I mean, one 1727 01:29:34,200 --> 01:29:36,240 Speaker 1: of the things Lyle that we pointed to after is 1728 01:29:36,240 --> 01:29:38,400 Speaker 1: that China is no longer answering even the phone calls 1729 01:29:38,400 --> 01:29:40,720 Speaker 1: as the Secretary of Defense. Something that you pointed to 1730 01:29:40,800 --> 01:29:43,559 Speaker 1: that I was not aware of is how the US 1731 01:29:43,600 --> 01:29:46,679 Speaker 1: has been shown in the open press to lose war 1732 01:29:46,760 --> 01:29:50,400 Speaker 1: games that they've been gaming around the Taiwan situation. Could 1733 01:29:50,400 --> 01:29:56,160 Speaker 1: you elaborate a lot a little bit further for the audience. Well, 1734 01:29:56,760 --> 01:29:59,920 Speaker 1: you can read plenty of articles in the open per 1735 01:30:00,280 --> 01:30:04,280 Speaker 1: If you just google that, you'll see there have been 1736 01:30:04,320 --> 01:30:07,080 Speaker 1: plenty of reports about war games. You know, there's a 1737 01:30:07,120 --> 01:30:13,280 Speaker 1: famous RAND analyst, David Akmanik. He's been cited in many 1738 01:30:13,320 --> 01:30:16,479 Speaker 1: reports making this statement. I think he works for RAND. 1739 01:30:16,560 --> 01:30:20,960 Speaker 1: So you know, I don't you know, I don't want 1740 01:30:21,000 --> 01:30:24,360 Speaker 1: to speak about you know, games I've been involved with, 1741 01:30:24,479 --> 01:30:29,519 Speaker 1: but it you know, this has just been reported openly 1742 01:30:29,560 --> 01:30:31,439 Speaker 1: in the press. So if you read about this, and 1743 01:30:31,479 --> 01:30:36,120 Speaker 1: it was an iterated set of conclusions, so you know, 1744 01:30:36,640 --> 01:30:40,759 Speaker 1: to me, that's quite powerful. But it checks with everything 1745 01:30:40,760 --> 01:30:42,680 Speaker 1: else we see. I mean, if you just look at 1746 01:30:42,720 --> 01:30:48,920 Speaker 1: the vast asymmetry of firepower, which mainly is due to geography. 1747 01:30:48,920 --> 01:30:50,960 Speaker 1: It's not that China is stronger than the US. The 1748 01:30:51,080 --> 01:30:54,800 Speaker 1: US remains stronger in most respects. But this fight is 1749 01:30:54,840 --> 01:30:59,000 Speaker 1: not you know, in mid Pacific or off the California coast. 1750 01:30:59,040 --> 01:31:01,479 Speaker 1: This is right in his backyard. And therefore they can 1751 01:31:01,520 --> 01:31:05,439 Speaker 1: bring everything they have into the fight immediately. And what 1752 01:31:05,479 --> 01:31:09,040 Speaker 1: that means is there's a you know, vast asymmetry of firepower. 1753 01:31:09,080 --> 01:31:11,120 Speaker 1: Like I said, when you add to that that China 1754 01:31:11,560 --> 01:31:17,320 Speaker 1: considers this a core interest. By contrast, most Americans couldn't 1755 01:31:17,320 --> 01:31:20,080 Speaker 1: find Taiwan on a map and have no idea what 1756 01:31:20,120 --> 01:31:23,320 Speaker 1: its relationship to China is. So when you put those 1757 01:31:23,320 --> 01:31:29,360 Speaker 1: two together, this is a really really dangerous situation in 1758 01:31:29,400 --> 01:31:34,439 Speaker 1: which we could be sleepwalking into a catastrophic war, one 1759 01:31:34,479 --> 01:31:37,080 Speaker 1: that we could potentially lose, but also one that could 1760 01:31:37,160 --> 01:31:39,920 Speaker 1: quite easily, as I said, go nuclear. You know, China 1761 01:31:40,000 --> 01:31:44,640 Speaker 1: is building up its nuclear forces, and from my observation, 1762 01:31:45,000 --> 01:31:48,120 Speaker 1: most analysts who think about this don't really take it, 1763 01:31:48,200 --> 01:31:50,439 Speaker 1: you know, that next step, you know, how do we 1764 01:31:51,560 --> 01:31:54,800 Speaker 1: ensure that this does not lead to uh, you know, 1765 01:31:55,000 --> 01:31:58,200 Speaker 1: use of nuclear weapons. I would go further, though there's 1766 01:31:58,240 --> 01:32:00,599 Speaker 1: more at stake here even than that, which is hard 1767 01:32:00,640 --> 01:32:03,880 Speaker 1: to believe. But you know, China just said they're not 1768 01:32:03,880 --> 01:32:07,439 Speaker 1: going to work with us on climate change anymore. That's 1769 01:32:07,560 --> 01:32:09,559 Speaker 1: you know, I think for people who are concerned about 1770 01:32:09,560 --> 01:32:16,080 Speaker 1: climate change, that's a pretty devastating result and one we 1771 01:32:16,080 --> 01:32:18,800 Speaker 1: should think very hard about. You know, all kinds of 1772 01:32:18,840 --> 01:32:21,000 Speaker 1: other areas we need to work closely with China. And 1773 01:32:21,000 --> 01:32:25,479 Speaker 1: and you know, the more we poison the relationship by 1774 01:32:25,920 --> 01:32:31,400 Speaker 1: needling on this Taiwan issue, the more in jeopardy. So 1775 01:32:31,560 --> 01:32:35,719 Speaker 1: many of these, you know, major issues for the twenty 1776 01:32:35,760 --> 01:32:39,400 Speaker 1: first century are are in doubt, you know, And so 1777 01:32:40,400 --> 01:32:43,479 Speaker 1: and one more thing I would add, sorry, is that 1778 01:32:44,040 --> 01:32:46,760 Speaker 1: you know, the amount of money that the US has 1779 01:32:46,800 --> 01:32:49,240 Speaker 1: to put forward to try if we're going to try 1780 01:32:49,280 --> 01:32:52,520 Speaker 1: to defend Taiwan. Like I said, the asymmetry of firepower 1781 01:32:52,560 --> 01:32:57,800 Speaker 1: is so great. We're talking trillions and trillions, and we 1782 01:32:57,840 --> 01:33:01,200 Speaker 1: still may not get there. So you know, there's a 1783 01:33:01,280 --> 01:33:06,880 Speaker 1: much wiser approach, and that's to you know, use realism 1784 01:33:06,920 --> 01:33:11,280 Speaker 1: and restraint and draw red lines at another place, not 1785 01:33:11,439 --> 01:33:14,280 Speaker 1: over Taiwan. Well and well, one of the cases you 1786 01:33:14,360 --> 01:33:16,880 Speaker 1: make as well is that a lot of folks have 1787 01:33:16,960 --> 01:33:20,360 Speaker 1: drawn some of the wrong conclusions and wrong lessons from 1788 01:33:20,840 --> 01:33:24,320 Speaker 1: Ukraine Russia. The wrong conclusion being all right, the right 1789 01:33:24,320 --> 01:33:26,519 Speaker 1: approach here is to sort of flood the zone with 1790 01:33:27,400 --> 01:33:31,040 Speaker 1: weapons versus what you say smart approach would have been 1791 01:33:31,120 --> 01:33:34,960 Speaker 1: to actually engage in diplomacy from the beginning, to try 1792 01:33:35,000 --> 01:33:40,400 Speaker 1: to avoid this war from the jump. Yeah, that's exactly right. 1793 01:33:40,479 --> 01:33:46,639 Speaker 1: I you know, I think you know, of course, Plutin 1794 01:33:46,720 --> 01:33:50,679 Speaker 1: Bear's primary responsibility for the war, and it's a huge 1795 01:33:50,720 --> 01:33:54,360 Speaker 1: catastrophe for Europe and for Russia and for Ukraine. But 1796 01:33:55,200 --> 01:33:58,160 Speaker 1: I believe much more could have been done in terms 1797 01:33:58,200 --> 01:34:02,200 Speaker 1: of diplomacy. Most of us who who watched this carefully, 1798 01:34:02,240 --> 01:34:04,880 Speaker 1: and I speak Russian as well. You know, it's clear 1799 01:34:04,960 --> 01:34:09,200 Speaker 1: that if Ukraine had simply declared neutrality, that probably would 1800 01:34:09,200 --> 01:34:12,160 Speaker 1: have gone a long way toward ending that crisis. So 1801 01:34:12,200 --> 01:34:16,000 Speaker 1: what we need here in the Taiwan situation is a 1802 01:34:16,040 --> 01:34:20,840 Speaker 1: similar attempt at diplomacy, you know, but this we have 1803 01:34:20,920 --> 01:34:23,719 Speaker 1: to make this diplomacy succeed, And here the US needs 1804 01:34:23,720 --> 01:34:26,479 Speaker 1: to get a lot more creative and a lot more active. 1805 01:34:26,640 --> 01:34:29,559 Speaker 1: You know, mostly the United States has been passive and 1806 01:34:29,640 --> 01:34:33,599 Speaker 1: just sort of pushing weapons into Taiwan. I don't think 1807 01:34:33,600 --> 01:34:37,040 Speaker 1: that's a smart approach at all. In fact, arguably, you know, 1808 01:34:37,160 --> 01:34:41,880 Speaker 1: those all those videos of javelins flowing into Ukraine during 1809 01:34:41,920 --> 01:34:47,120 Speaker 1: the last you know, between November and February last year, 1810 01:34:47,200 --> 01:34:49,840 Speaker 1: I think I was kind of waving a red flag 1811 01:34:49,840 --> 01:34:51,599 Speaker 1: in front of a bull that Russian said, well, we've 1812 01:34:51,600 --> 01:34:54,360 Speaker 1: got to go now. And I'm very concerned that China 1813 01:34:55,320 --> 01:34:58,080 Speaker 1: may be approaching this with a similar logic, is that, 1814 01:34:58,200 --> 01:35:00,519 Speaker 1: you know, they don't like all these weapons piling up 1815 01:35:00,560 --> 01:35:03,040 Speaker 1: in Taiwan, and they decide now is the time. So 1816 01:35:03,560 --> 01:35:07,280 Speaker 1: I'm very very concerned, and I think we need to 1817 01:35:07,320 --> 01:35:10,880 Speaker 1: put much more energy into looking for diplomatic solutions. Most 1818 01:35:10,920 --> 01:35:14,439 Speaker 1: people who look carefully at the Taiwan issue come round 1819 01:35:14,439 --> 01:35:19,519 Speaker 1: to a conclusion that basically you have to reach for 1820 01:35:19,560 --> 01:35:23,280 Speaker 1: some kind of confederation, you know, and that's a very 1821 01:35:23,280 --> 01:35:27,559 Speaker 1: squishy concept obviously, but you know, it's sort of a 1822 01:35:27,640 --> 01:35:31,680 Speaker 1: meeting meeting halfway, and that's what's absolutely necessary. You know. 1823 01:35:31,920 --> 01:35:35,600 Speaker 1: By the way, like I said, creative diplomacy should have 1824 01:35:35,640 --> 01:35:39,080 Speaker 1: prevented the Ukraine War in my view too. Yeah, yeah, 1825 01:35:39,160 --> 01:35:42,200 Speaker 1: you can't wish away the red lines of great powers, 1826 01:35:42,200 --> 01:35:44,360 Speaker 1: even if you may wish your hope or you know, 1827 01:35:44,800 --> 01:35:47,120 Speaker 1: want them to be different than what they ultimately are. 1828 01:35:47,120 --> 01:35:49,160 Speaker 1: You have to listen to what they're saying. Lyle, thank 1829 01:35:49,160 --> 01:35:51,720 Speaker 1: you so much for helping us understand this, because I 1830 01:35:51,760 --> 01:35:53,280 Speaker 1: do agree with you. I think the media is doing 1831 01:35:53,280 --> 01:35:57,200 Speaker 1: a very poor job of helping Americans to understand exactly 1832 01:35:57,760 --> 01:36:00,760 Speaker 1: how grave the stakes are here. Great to have Thank you, Lyle, 1833 01:36:00,800 --> 01:36:04,760 Speaker 1: appreciate it. Thanks very much. That's all. Sure. Thank you 1834 01:36:04,800 --> 01:36:06,640 Speaker 1: guys so much for watching. We really appreciate It's been 1835 01:36:06,680 --> 01:36:08,840 Speaker 1: a fun news week here on breaking points and then 1836 01:36:08,880 --> 01:36:12,080 Speaker 1: trying to hit all of the top stories, break it down, 1837 01:36:12,160 --> 01:36:14,160 Speaker 1: explain it to everybody. I know. It can be fraught 1838 01:36:14,160 --> 01:36:16,040 Speaker 1: times and all that, but it's actually probably the most 1839 01:36:16,040 --> 01:36:18,960 Speaker 1: fun in order to engage at this time, as exhausting 1840 01:36:19,040 --> 01:36:21,160 Speaker 1: as it often may be. So we appreciate all of 1841 01:36:21,160 --> 01:36:23,639 Speaker 1: your support very much. We've got exciting things in the works, 1842 01:36:23,680 --> 01:36:25,639 Speaker 1: not only the live show, but some new people who 1843 01:36:25,680 --> 01:36:27,880 Speaker 1: will be hopefully joining us that you'll be seeing very 1844 01:36:27,960 --> 01:36:31,120 Speaker 1: very soon, and some other developments on the show as well. 1845 01:36:31,160 --> 01:36:32,840 Speaker 1: So those are our premium members. You guys are the 1846 01:36:32,840 --> 01:36:35,080 Speaker 1: ones who enable all of this. We deeply appreciate it. 1847 01:36:35,080 --> 01:36:37,559 Speaker 1: If you could sign up, there's a link in the description. Otherwise, 1848 01:36:37,760 --> 01:36:39,680 Speaker 1: we will see you all on Monday and we have 1849 01:36:39,720 --> 01:36:41,960 Speaker 1: great content for you all over the weekend. Yep, love 1850 01:36:42,000 --> 01:36:44,320 Speaker 1: you guys, Enjoy the weekend. See you're back here next week. 1851 01:37:00,080 --> 01:37:00,120 Speaker 1: M