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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our NFL Week ten Sunday recap episode. I am

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Speaker 1: Chad Millman. I am joined by my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: Mike and Padre my co host professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

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Speaker 1: Everyone is here with us watching us sweat the end

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Speaker 1: of this Washington Commander's Seattle game. People just came in

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Speaker 1: to see the pain in agony in our faces with

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Speaker 1: Ron Rivera having a chance to get a win or

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Speaker 1: give us the cover we need, and instead he goes

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Speaker 1: for the extra point.

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Speaker 2: I hate him where I keep saying he's damned Dynasaur.

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Speaker 2: He really is. He's the worst. And no Chad today.

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Speaker 2: So I love what we do. I hate it today.

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Speaker 2: It's miserable. I think I lost every one PM game

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Speaker 2: and now I'm looking at hopefully going four for four

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Speaker 2: in these four PM games. So that's gambling, baby, It's

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Speaker 2: a never ending sweat.

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Speaker 1: It really is. Right now, we are one in one.

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Speaker 1: We lost the Jags, we won the lines. We're sweating.

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Speaker 1: We're sweating the Commanders, and we have the Jets and

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Speaker 1: Denver to go. But I do need to set the

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Speaker 1: stage a little bit for how we ended up where

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Speaker 1: we did, because a lot happened between Thursday, when you

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Speaker 1: and I recorded the podcast and then we made our picks,

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Speaker 1: and when we and Friday night. Because everyone knows who listens,

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and I were in Copenhagen last week, and

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Speaker 1: we were in Copenhagen when we recorded the Friday episode.

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Speaker 1: On Friday night, Mitchell and I were part of a

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Speaker 1: large group of people from the Action Universe that went

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Speaker 1: to dinner our last night in town. It was close

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Speaker 1: to nine pm. Two tequilas, two glasses of wine into

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Speaker 1: a four course tasting menu. I go to use the

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Speaker 1: boys room while at the stall. Standing there, my phone

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Speaker 1: buzzes against my better judgment cause I don't like to

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Speaker 1: check it when I'm standing at the stall. I checked

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Speaker 1: it and there's a message on the lock screen and

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Speaker 1: it's from Simon and it reads can you call me

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Speaker 1: as soon as possible? Now, Simon is not prone to hysterics,

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Speaker 1: he's not prone to I'm and he's not a texter text. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So like Simon sending me a text when he knows

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Speaker 1: I'm in Copenhagen, you call me as soon as possible.

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Speaker 1: My first instinct is that he's in grave physical danger

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Speaker 1: because there's something we did on the show. And so

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Speaker 1: outside the bathroom door, I call you. And again, I'm

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Speaker 1: in like a semi loud restaurant, and I call you

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Speaker 1: when you are huffing and puffing. So I'm sure like

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Speaker 1: you are being chased down some street in and I'm

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Speaker 1: for some reason, me and Copenhagen, I am your only lifeline, yeah,

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Speaker 1: to survival. I say, are you all right? You say yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm just climbing a mountain in Hawaii. But we need

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Speaker 1: to change our picks right away. So what had happened

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Speaker 1: was on Thursday when we walked in, we were on

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Speaker 1: Cleveland plus six and a half, Cincinnati minus six and

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Speaker 1: a half, Jacksonville plus three and a half, Detroit minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half, Denver seven and a half. So

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Speaker 1: I call you back. You're like, we need to change

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Speaker 1: your picks right away. Explain the first thing you heard.

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Speaker 1: Explain the first thing you heard about Washington.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, even the whole week, Chad loved Seahawks, and I

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Speaker 2: was just like, there's some offish about this number. I

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Speaker 2: didn't get the line all week and when I call it, Chad,

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Speaker 2: I basically a big negative of living Hawaii. It takes

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Speaker 2: like a year for anything to get out here, any information,

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Speaker 2: So you know, it's whatever that I was eight in

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Speaker 2: the morning, nine in the morning, I was going for

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Speaker 2: my my like pollylocala the mountain side, and I got

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Speaker 2: no bars. And you know, I finally get to an

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Speaker 2: area and I get like fifteen text messages and three

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Speaker 2: miss phone calls. And the first one is just basically

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Speaker 2: someone telling me this so and so group is putting

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Speaker 2: down seven figures on the Washington plus six and a half.

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Speaker 2: Grab it before it's gone. So, being the good guy

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Speaker 2: I am, before I text an am, I runners anybody,

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Speaker 2: I text Chad first to give me a call because

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Speaker 2: I was like, we gotta get this six and a half.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Chad might have taken five minutes. This is

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Speaker 2: how quick these lines move. So again I was delayed

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Speaker 2: getting information. I text Chad, I sent out my own information.

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Speaker 2: I was only able to get sixes and like maybe

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Speaker 2: two books gave me six and a half's, but I

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Speaker 2: missed the number. When Chad checked our line, it was

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Speaker 2: five and a half. Like that number literally in half

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Speaker 2: an hour had totally moved, and yeah it was again,

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Speaker 2: I hear a lot of noise. But there's certain groups,

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Speaker 2: certain guys who are like, you know, they're my idols.

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Speaker 2: There are dudes I put up on a really high

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Speaker 2: pedestal and when I hear they're making moves, let alone

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Speaker 2: seven figure moves, it's like I got to hit my guy,

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Speaker 2: Chad up. And again, I'm not always me right, I'm

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Speaker 2: make stupid fucking bets like I'm an idiot, But you know,

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Speaker 2: I know these contacts, I know the people I deal with,

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Speaker 2: and it's like these guys make these moves they always know,

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Speaker 2: like they always have a reason. And I didn't know

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Speaker 2: how I was going to land on three or land

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Speaker 2: on four in the Seattle game. I don't even know

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Speaker 2: if it's going to They could still win a touchdown here.

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Speaker 2: This game's happening live. But when these dudes take me

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Speaker 2: up and I joke that these guys have time machines

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Speaker 2: and they're telling me this game is gonna land on

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Speaker 2: three and four, grab the six, grab the six and

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Speaker 2: a half, I'm all in on it. So yeah, Chad,

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Speaker 2: my guy, he trusts me, he knows that, Like I'm

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Speaker 2: not fucking around especially if I'm hitting dude up at

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Speaker 2: you know, eight in the morning my time, Like that's

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Speaker 2: something I would never.

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Speaker 1: Do to anybody, and at night in my time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And like in Chad knows, I'm always one.

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Speaker 2: I'm okay with waiting for things. But if I know

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Speaker 2: what number is gonna move and I know these dudes

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Speaker 2: are for real, I always try to get us the

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Speaker 2: best of the numbers. So yeah, like, I don't know

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Speaker 2: how they do with people. And it's final now they

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Speaker 2: just kicked a field goal Seattle, And like again, I

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Speaker 2: don't know how they fucking do with people. Like they

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Speaker 2: ask you, guys ask me all the time. How do

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Speaker 2: I get these contexts in these wait.

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Speaker 1: It's it's so we covered Yeah, yeah, we did it.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, that's amazing.

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Speaker 2: That's what I mean, though, is that these guys they

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Speaker 2: just fucking know and I don't get it. It'll never

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Speaker 2: make sense. But Chad knows me well enough that, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm gonna say, dumb shit, I'm gonna miss that.

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Speaker 2: Ravens game is a great example of the Chad was

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Speaker 2: dead on with that, But it was more that Chad

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Speaker 2: just knows I'm trying to protect us if all their

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Speaker 2: offensive linemen around the Browns, I can't put him in

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Speaker 2: our contest. Chad knows how how much I care about

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Speaker 2: offensive line play and when I'm hitting them up and

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Speaker 2: I'm just saying to him, like, I don't care. That's

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Speaker 2: five and a half. Remember Chad, you were like it's

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Speaker 2: five and a half. Nowt not taking I'm like, I

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Speaker 2: don't don't care. Yeah, Like these dudes are saying it's

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Speaker 2: going to land on three or four. We got to

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Speaker 2: take it no matter what. And I cannot believe this

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Speaker 2: game landed on three. I don't I don't know how

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Speaker 2: they fucking do it, man. And that's my favorite thing

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Speaker 2: about this job is like I'm like all of you,

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Speaker 2: like I love it. I'm in this world and I

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Speaker 2: live it. But I'm always shocked about how these dudes know.

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Speaker 2: And like that's my favorite part is people are shocked

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Speaker 2: how I know. I don't know either, Like my model

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Speaker 2: that that Detroit game, I cannot believe that Detroit game

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Speaker 2: landed on three. And it's just that's my favorite part

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Speaker 2: about doing this shit. It's like you make a number,

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Speaker 2: you trust the number. Bet the lines at one, Bet

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Speaker 2: the lines one and a half bet the lines of two,

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Speaker 2: but the lines of two and a half. The game

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Speaker 2: lands on three, and it's like, you know, this day suck.

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Speaker 2: Me and Chad were staring oer to three in the

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Speaker 2: face and here we are two and one, brothers right

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Speaker 2: on course.

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Speaker 1: It's so all of a sudden on Friday night, I

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Speaker 1: can barely see, I'm telling it. I come out of

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Speaker 1: the bathroom hallway and I tell Matt Mitchell what we're doing,

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Speaker 1: and I go back into Dotactionnetwork dot com to change

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Speaker 1: our contest picks. Take Cleveland out, take Cincinnati out, put

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Speaker 1: Washington in. And because we took two games out, we

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Speaker 1: had to add one more were in. So we ended

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Speaker 1: up putting in the New York Jets. So instead of

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Speaker 1: sitting here at two and two, because we with the

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Speaker 1: Broncos to come on Monday night at seven and a half,

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Speaker 1: we're now two and one. We would have been we

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Speaker 1: would have won Cleveland, we would have won Detroit. We

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Speaker 1: would have lost Cincy, we would have lost Jacksonville, we'd

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Speaker 1: have Denver left. Now we're two and one. We got

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Speaker 1: the Jets left, we got the Broncos left. You know,

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Speaker 1: just we just need to go one on one, which

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Speaker 1: I think we can do. And uh, you know it's

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Speaker 1: interesting you mentioned let me, let me, let me set

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Speaker 1: us up for one more second here. So uh, by

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Speaker 1: the way, when I did this, Matt Mitchell was in

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Speaker 1: the middle of eating five plates of beef tartar by himself.

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Speaker 2: Poor wife. I can't imagine you crop dustin man.

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Speaker 1: Listen. I had a full date with Matt Mitchell and

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Speaker 1: his wife Karen. They are lovely, beautiful people. I made

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Speaker 1: them go sicing with me and Copenhagen because we had

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Speaker 1: afternoon fights and they were such troopers that got out

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Speaker 1: of the hotel. We saw castles and gardens and had

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Speaker 1: a traditional Danish meal. It was amazing. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Catch every episode of the

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Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, please

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Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Okay, Jacksonville loser, Detroit winner,

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Speaker 1: Washington winner, Jets minus a half, Denver plus seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. The games we passed one more time, Cleveland

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Speaker 1: six and a half, Cincy six and a half. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about the jackson first. Let's get out, Let's

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Speaker 1: get out of the way. It's an interesting team. We

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Speaker 1: we just missed it. I mean, I think we were.

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Speaker 1: We were banking on the Jags and the streak they've

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Speaker 1: been on looking good. We're huge Doug Peterson fans. Doug

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Speaker 1: Peterson teams played better in the second half of the year.

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Speaker 1: We thought there might be lingering issues with Brod Purdy.

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Speaker 1: The IU did with the Jackson been doing to lose games,

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Speaker 1: which is a lot of bad turnovers. And I think

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Speaker 1: we missed the most important element, which was Deebo Samuel.

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Speaker 1: Like it's so clear he was out the past three games.

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Speaker 1: They lose those games. He's such a weapon, such a

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Speaker 1: multi tooled weapon from every position, whether he's lining up

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Speaker 1: in the backfield, lining up in the slot, lining up wide,

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Speaker 1: he just makes the key plays and gives Brock Purdy

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Speaker 1: that that element that makes him such a better player, right,

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Speaker 1: And so we just missed it. We undervalued Deebo Samuel.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take the blame for this one because I

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Speaker 2: said I wouldn't let us put this in if if

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Speaker 2: Trent Williams was back, and he was back, and I

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Speaker 2: still let us put it in. So yeah, that was

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Speaker 2: total blind spot on me. Look, but like I said,

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Speaker 2: I was terrible today, Like my one PM picks were horrible.

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Speaker 2: I could not pick a winner. Thank god we only

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Speaker 2: had one in the contest because it's like like I

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Speaker 2: just said, I went for for in the Lake game.

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Speaker 2: And that's that's the difference right now for us where

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Speaker 2: yeah got away from what got us here? These divisional

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Speaker 2: jogs like I shouldn't have doubted chat on that Cleveland number.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, the worst one. Again. I feel bad for

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Speaker 2: people that listen to the show. It's like, I love

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Speaker 2: the Bengals, and then, like Chad said, I hit him up.

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Speaker 2: I told them I'm out on the Bengals because of

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Speaker 2: I thought there's gonna be no Chase and no Higgins.

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Speaker 2: So you know, got really lucky. Didn't matter right, Chase played,

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Speaker 2: scored a touchdown, had a great game, had game, but

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Speaker 2: got out of that game. Another game I liked early

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Speaker 2: in the week that we luckily we avoided the Saints.

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Speaker 2: I love the Saints. Yes, heard from really sharp people

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Speaker 2: they liked Minnesota. I'm like, all right, I'll keep my betting.

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Speaker 2: I'll have my bets on it, but I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to bet it more. And I wouldn't. I didn't even

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Speaker 2: bring it up to chat for our contest. We wake

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Speaker 2: up this morning, Chris Raybaund's on the vikings as well,

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Speaker 2: and it's just like, okay, so that was a good read.

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Speaker 2: The only one we missed on, which I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't blame us for it because we're big in

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Speaker 2: luck rankings, was Pittsburgh. Like we like Pittsburgh. We talked

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Speaker 2: Sunday night about Pittsburgh. Everything we said about Green Bay

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Speaker 2: feels like it was true that, like Jordan Love, if

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Speaker 2: you need him to drive the field the end of

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Speaker 2: the game, you have no confidence, you have no faith.

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Speaker 2: And I almost ate those words because the guy almost

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Speaker 2: drove the field to win the game at the end.

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Speaker 2: But it is what it feels like. We kind of

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Speaker 2: at this at this point of the season, right, chat,

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Speaker 2: We kind of keep saying these teams are what they are, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: every week's a little different, but you know, everyone feels

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Speaker 2: the same. How did we not take Dallas? We knew

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Speaker 2: exactly how that game was gonna go. I said it

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Speaker 2: our Sunday more. I told you I didn't know a

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Speaker 2: single professional, not one professional. All the people I talked

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Speaker 2: to said the Giants this week. So I didn't know

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Speaker 2: a single person that had money on the Giants, and

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Speaker 2: that that should have been Tailtales signed. So yeah, brillly pissed.

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Speaker 2: I kept the Jaguars in because there was other games

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Speaker 2: we had in the back of our mind. And its

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Speaker 2: just I should have known better, right, Because like you

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Speaker 2: just said, the forty nineers have been playing bad. They

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Speaker 2: were due for having a good game they're a really

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Speaker 2: good team, and the Jaguars on the other side, they

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Speaker 2: would due for a bad game, like they had been

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Speaker 2: winning all these really close games, and I think they

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Speaker 2: had won five straight or six straight up to that point.

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Speaker 2: Everything went wrong in that game, right. They had all

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Speaker 2: bad turnovers, bad fumbles, bad penalties, Their defense was getting stops.

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Speaker 2: It was still ten to nothing, and it was ten

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Speaker 2: to three, and their defense was still getting them the

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Speaker 2: ball back. And Trevor just couldn't put a drive together.

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Speaker 2: He just completely did not have it today. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: sorry everyone, that was a horrible bet.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting, Trevor Lawrence. There are times hen there's a

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Speaker 1: big difference to me between the development of Trevor Lawrence,

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Speaker 1: the development of Jalen Hurts, the development of Justin Herbert,

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Speaker 1: like even the development of Tua. He has yet to

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Speaker 1: rise to the level of being discussed as an elite

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Speaker 1: quarterback yet, and I think we keep waiting for him

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Speaker 1: to get there. We keep saying his flashes, his flashes,

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Speaker 1: but like he's not putting it to And also when

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Speaker 1: you watch him throw, he doesn't throw with the same velocity,

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Speaker 1: the same accuracy that guys like Justin Herbert or TUA

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Speaker 1: in terms of accuracy, do.

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Speaker 2: Like they're older though they've been in the league longer.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you, though I'm disappointed to what Trevor did today,

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Speaker 2: But at the same time, it's like I still gonna

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Speaker 2: keep giving him time because he has the body of

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Speaker 2: the body frame, the talent, the arm, talent, the head,

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Speaker 2: and he is the coaching Doug Peterson. But I'm with you,

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Speaker 2: like I feel like we keep seeing him in big

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Speaker 2: games not living up to the moments, and this was

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Speaker 2: a big game today, Like you want to measure yourself

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Speaker 2: against the best teams in the league, and now, like

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Speaker 2: you know, obviously they won't see each other the playoffs

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Speaker 2: turing different divisions, But is it not going to make

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Speaker 2: you more hesitant to take him against a team like Safe?

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Speaker 2: They have to play Houston in the first round, and

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Speaker 2: Houston's a team that today went on the road, had

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Speaker 2: a huge win. And CJ just keeps coming from behind

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Speaker 2: the end of these games and having these drives, And

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Speaker 2: it's like, that's what I'm agreeing with you about, where

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Speaker 2: it's like Trevor's not having these moments that CJ is

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Speaker 2: and CJ's kind of guy now where it's like, I mean,

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Speaker 2: you know, again, I don't want to beat up these

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Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers fans, but it's like you missed the once

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Speaker 2: in every five to ten year guy, And that's got

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Speaker 2: to be sickening to you because the shit CJ is

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Speaker 2: doing as a rookie, like you just don't. You don't

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Speaker 2: see guys at four or five years in the league

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Speaker 2: do these kind of things back to back week. So

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Speaker 2: it is crazy right now, has been.

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Speaker 1: He's the kind of player where it doesn't matter the scenario,

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Speaker 1: whether he's dropping back or scrambling. Every time he throws

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Speaker 1: the ball, you believe before the camera gets to where

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Speaker 1: the ball is going that the player he's throwing to

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Speaker 1: is wide open or the ball is going to be

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Speaker 1: absolutely pin point perfect.

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Speaker 2: Well, I just love you threw that really bad pick

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Speaker 2: that was almost a pick six, came right back exactly,

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Speaker 2: And I told you, like we did a rank in

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Speaker 2: a couple of years ago with Cowhard and that was

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Speaker 2: my rankings about guys who can throw pick sixes and

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Speaker 2: just bounce back. And like he's got that moxie as

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Speaker 2: a rookie. It's mind blowing. Like I just, man, I

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Speaker 2: really hope Houston doesn't ruin this guy in the future

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Speaker 2: because they really do have such a rare talent. Like

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Speaker 2: the kid is just so cool, it's crazy, like really

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Speaker 2: is like today today's games are so much fun, and

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Speaker 2: he's if he keeps playing this way. I mean, obviously'll

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Speaker 2: uin Rookie of your year, but how can you not

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Speaker 2: talk about him for MVP like you think about.

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Speaker 1: It's in my notes, I wrote it down. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: you have to have a conversation right now about we

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Speaker 1: might have to say Stroud as MVP.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, cause it's just it's again, it's really hard to

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Speaker 2: be consistent in football, especially as teams get more film

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Speaker 2: on you and they start prepping defenses to take away

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Speaker 2: what you like to do. And the fact that this

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Speaker 2: kid keeps producing. I mean, you saw Tampa's d today, right,

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Speaker 2: Tampa completely dominated Tennessee. Right. Is Tampa's defense really that

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Speaker 2: bad or CJ this good? And that's the hardest thing

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Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, I'm trying to guess what

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Speaker 2: this kid going to be like, and it's like, well,

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Speaker 2: since he's got a good deed, they should be able

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Speaker 2: to scheme up and step up against him. Now, Like

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Speaker 2: the guy through for over three hundred yards, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: if I really do look at this year, where all

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Speaker 2: these teams are kind of equal, right, and all these

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Speaker 2: teams are like right there, neck and neck, and you know,

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Speaker 2: last week was Lamar's week and he was the MVP,

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Speaker 2: and then he loses, and there's always some there's always

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Speaker 2: the next guy up. Right, this whole season, everyone's so close.

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Speaker 2: If you're a writer, and he gets them either shockingly

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Speaker 2: they could do it win the division or gets them

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Speaker 2: the fifth seed or sixth seed in the AFC, they

365
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Speaker 2: really should have a serious talk about CJF for MVP

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Speaker 2: because he's changed that whole identity of that team and

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Speaker 2: a couple of months. It's incredible, Like it really is

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Speaker 2: incredible what this kid's doing.

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Speaker 1: Kudos to Brandon Anderson, who, in one of our preview

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Speaker 1: shows for The Favorites podcast predicted that the Texans would

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Speaker 1: win the AFC South. All Right, the other game one

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Speaker 1: of our winners today, Detroit minus two and a half

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Speaker 1: at the Chargers. Like you said, we talked about it

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Speaker 1: last Sunday. The number was one better at one better

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Speaker 1: at two and a half put them the contest. Very

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Speaker 1: Chalky did not get the best of the number of

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Speaker 1: the contest. You know what's funny you say you were

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Speaker 1: sweating this game. I never was nervous about this game.

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Speaker 1: This felt like a backyard whoever has the ball last,

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Speaker 1: better coach wins kind of game.

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Speaker 2: It was because of the refs though. The refs.

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Speaker 1: Man, I was never sweating this game.

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Speaker 2: But the refs are just a refs were brutal a

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Speaker 2: couple of games today, but they were really bad in

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Speaker 2: this one. And anytime the Chargers needed a new first

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Speaker 2: down or another set to go, they kept getting the

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Speaker 2: call they needed. Not all of them was bs right.

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Speaker 2: The refs were making the right calls, but a lot

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Speaker 2: of them were very TICKI tack and you know, the

390
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Speaker 2: lines look like the much better team. But this is

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Speaker 2: what I'll never get about Herbert Man. How does Herbert

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Speaker 2: have this game and then other games he can't make

393
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Speaker 2: the throws like, oh man, he's just a frustrating guy.

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Speaker 2: And you know they're they're wasting his career, like Ben Johnson,

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Speaker 2: the guy on the other side of the ball, the

396
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Speaker 2: Lions OC him or Eric bellenemy like the the OC

397
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Speaker 2: for Washington. That's that's that's all the Chargers need to

398
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Speaker 2: do is go hire one of those guys to be

399
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Speaker 2: the new the new catch coach. And it's not against

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Speaker 2: Matt Moore. I think man Matt Moore has done great

401
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Speaker 2: with the scheme, everything he's doing with Kellen Moore, Kellen

402
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Speaker 2: Moore with this team. But you know, I just I

403
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Speaker 2: can't get over how much wasted time we have here

404
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Speaker 2: with Herbert. Like you look at his record this year

405
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Speaker 2: in his career, He's barely five hundred, right, I think

406
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Speaker 2: we saw some stat like that, so you know, I

407
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Speaker 2: every like I hated betting against them today, like it

408
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Speaker 2: was nerve wracking, especially like you know, seeing him making

409
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Speaker 2: those big time throws. But like you said, the lines,

410
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Speaker 2: they're the Juggernaut, they break the rules. I mean, you'll

411
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Speaker 2: never catch me betting on an eighty percent public bet

412
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Speaker 2: road favorite, right, that's so rare for me. It's gotta

413
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Speaker 2: be the right situation of the Chargers have no home career,

414
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Speaker 2: no home field advantage, and I don't know why, but

415
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Speaker 2: this Lion's team is a short favorite. I think Emma

416
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Speaker 2: gave us a stat about how they just cover like

417
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Speaker 2: they're really good at being road chalk. And yeah, Evan

418
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Speaker 2: just put in our chat Herbert twenty nine to thirty

419
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Speaker 2: straight up in his career, dude, twenty nine and thirty.

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Speaker 2: Like a guy that me and you both had in

421
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Speaker 2: our top ten, top five quarterbacks in the league right now,

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Speaker 2: So pretty embarrassing to that whole organization.

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Speaker 1: A guy we bet on twenty five to one to

424
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Speaker 1: lead the league passing yardage. Dan Campbell in his career

425
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Speaker 1: thirty four and twenty one, So he's basically sixty two

426
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Speaker 1: percent against the spread. One hundred and fifteen NFL coaches

427
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Speaker 1: have had fifty plus games of experience since nineteen ninety.

428
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell now has the best ATS win percentage of

429
00:21:53,560 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 1: all of them. Jared Goff continues to be the most profitable.

430
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 2: I think you're gonna be Dennis Allen after that, which

431
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 2: would have been funny. He's like one hundred and fortieth.

432
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, we know that around spread.

433
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: It's funny like the Saints. To me, we talked about

434
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 1: this in the show. I don't think we were ever

435
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: going to put him in the contest. We were so

436
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 1: opposed on that.

437
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, well I liked it, but I'm saying I just

438
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 2: by by Saturday morning, I'd heard like a bunch of

439
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 2: people were coming on this Viking steam. Now I was

440
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 2: just like, you know what, I'm just missing it. So yeah,

441
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:27,159
Speaker 2: luckily we didn't even talk about that this morning.

442
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 1: Jared Goff continues to be the most profitable quarterback in

443
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 1: the NFL past five twenty and six against the spread

444
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: the last two seasons.

445
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 2: And.

446
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 1: You just you can't help but love this team.

447
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're so fun.

448
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell going forward consistently on fourth down, Yeah, side

449
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 1: the five, it's just because he has so much There's

450
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 1: such a difference between the way Brandon Staley goes forward

451
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 1: on fourth down and the way Dan Campbell goes for

452
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 1: it on fourth down. Dan Campbell will do it, and

453
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 1: then we'll call a play that tells you I believe

454
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 1: in you. Do you know what I mean? Brandon Staley

455
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 1: will do it, and he will someone will call a

456
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: play because he's not calling the office of plays that

457
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 1: basically says I'm nervous and I'm tight, and like, I

458
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: think at one point it was a fourth and five

459
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 1: or third and nine and they called a run and

460
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 1: was basically saying, block the fuck out of people, guys,

461
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: and we'll get the first down. And that's exactly what

462
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 1: they did. And they're an awesome team to watch now

463
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: They're seven and two, and it's hard not to look

464
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 1: at the NFC and think, Okay, the class of the

465
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,479
Speaker 1: NFC right now is the Eagles and the Lions. And

466
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: the Lions are actually playing a little bit better and

467
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 1: probably healthier than the Eagles. Right now, I.

468
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 2: Still got them third. I still got the Eagles forty

469
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 2: nine ers then like literally a hair ahead of Dallas.

470
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 2: So if it's Dallas, I mean, I can't believe about

471
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 2: to say this, but it who the hell are the

472
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,439
Speaker 2: Lions to begin to respect in the playoffs somewhere they

473
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 2: haven't been in like years. If if the Lions are

474
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 2: more than two and a half three favorite over Dallas, guys,

475
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 2: you already know I'm gonna be on Dallas Like that's

476
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 2: just that's gonna be too much, too much respect to

477
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 2: this Lions team, even even in a home playoff game.

478
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 2: So I do get you're coming from. They they have

479
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 2: a chance to be the one seed. I mean, that's that.

480
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: That to that to them, that has to be everything,

481
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 2: because I mean I might make them a four and

482
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 2: a half five point dog in Philadelphia in January, and

483
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 2: I probably would make them the same number in San Francisco.

484
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: So they have to get that one seed or they're

485
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,439
Speaker 2: they're dead, like they just they have to get that

486
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: one seed. They need golf indoors at home. Like we've

487
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 2: seen the splits him indoors versus outdoors. We've seen the

488
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 2: difference between him at home than outdoors. They got to

489
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 2: get the one seat. So yeah, like the lines that

490
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 2: that win this this week, not to dictate their whole season,

491
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 2: but they couldn't lose this game. They needed to beat

492
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: a good team on the road. And now if you

493
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 2: look at the rest of their schedule, I mean, especially

494
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 2: in your division, like you need that, you need that

495
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 2: for them, they got an easy division. They needed to

496
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 2: win this kind of road game. So yeah, Lions fans,

497
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 2: Cloud nine, I mean, don't listen to assholes like me.

498
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: You think your team's the best team in NFC. Believe it.

499
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 2: Like you guys are playing like the best team. It's

500
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 2: just I gotta be real with you. It's just if

501
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 2: golf is outdoors in January, I am not betting on that. Man,

502
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 2: Love Love.

503
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 1: As we've said, the NFL is better with Dan Campbell

504
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 1: in it, and I feel like we're gonna get because

505
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: of this season, We're gonna get at least two to

506
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: three more years of Dan Campbell.

507
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 2: Let me tell you something I got.

508
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 1: We can skip over Washington. We did a lot of

509
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,199
Speaker 1: talking about Washington. You know, we washed it live. We

510
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: sweated it live, We won it live. Recap for other picks, Foxhole,

511
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: Jacksonville plus three, Simon says, Cincinnati minus six and a half.

512
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: Executive decision, Cleveland plus six. Our big balls is the

513
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 1: Jets plus one survivor.

514
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:18,160
Speaker 2: There we go.

515
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we got that right, Matt. Is that

516
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 1: what we talked about?

517
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 2: Ye?

518
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 1: Survivor is Dallas Round Robin, Jets, Jags No, Cleveland, yes, Minnesota. Yes.

519
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 1: So we got a chance to go four out of

520
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 1: five here. Now.

521
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 2: Round Robin's been good this year, even though it's been

522
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 2: tough with these dogs out right, we've had a nice

523
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 2: run with these Ron Robins.

524
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 1: All right, the lean for tonight, We've said it, We've

525
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,479
Speaker 1: said it many times. We're on the Jets. We got

526
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 1: the Jets in the contest. Go j E t s

527
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: anything to add there?

528
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, we need it. We need the Jets defensive show up.

529
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 2: I mean talk about a day where uh, you know,

530
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 2: Ben bad quarterbacks and we need we need Zach Wilson

531
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 2: to come through or Russell Wilson.

532
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:11,719
Speaker 1: Here Monday Night football. The line has moved in our direction.

533
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 1: We got it at seven and a half Denver plus

534
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: seven and a half against Buffalo. I mean, I'm not

535
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 1: going to bet it at seven, but I loved it

536
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. And I think the fact

537
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,159
Speaker 1: that's moved in our direction says everything we need to

538
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 1: know about why we liked it at seven and a half.

539
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I hope it works out. Like we

540
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 2: talked to the number didn't make sense. It felt too big,

541
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 2: and the Bills are just they're banged up on defense.

542
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 2: They're they're really, you know, still one of the best

543
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 2: teams in football on offense, but you know, defensively, how

544
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 2: can you have faith in them to get stops, let

545
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 2: alone they're trying to cover seven and a half number.

546
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 2: That's such a huge number. So yeah, hopefully me and

547
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 2: Chadow'd stepping into like we did with Jaguars. Like that

548
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 2: number felt way too big too, uh, But yeah, feels

549
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:00,959
Speaker 2: good that it's down to say and now most books,

550
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 2: if you missed it and you're trying to still trying

551
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 2: to make a choice, I do have this at six.

552
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 2: So I am showing value right now on the bills,

553
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: I mean on Denver. But yeah, I feel bad tell

554
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 2: you to bet it because me and Chad both have

555
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 2: been betting the seven and a half all week. So yeah,

556
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,400
Speaker 2: deal with what you want, but you know I wouldn't

557
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: let the seven scarry me off, Simon.

558
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the

559
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: United States?

560
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 2: Game Time?

561
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I like Game

562
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One they sponsor this show. Number

563
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 1: two because I actually use game Time to buy tickets.

564
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: They've got amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets,

565
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: including pro and college football games. Speaking of which, I'm

566
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 1: actually going to open Game Time right now from my

567
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: house here in Connecticut, back in Connecticut, not in Copenhagen.

568
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: Look what I see? College basketball in full forced. I

569
00:28:56,160 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: can get in to see the Saint John's basketball team,

570
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: coached by legendary coach Repatino for less than fifty bucks

571
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 1: tomorrow night. No matter where you live, download the game

572
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 1: Time app, get out and have some fun this week.

573
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: Go sweat your bets live and in person. You can

574
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase

575
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 1: terms apply again. Just download the app. Enter code favorites

576
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: for twenty dollars off last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed

577
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: all right, early week eleven spots simon. Earlier in the show,

578
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 1: we talked about these division dogs. We talked about the

579
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: opportunity to bet division dogs. You want to bet division

580
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: dogs on a regular basis, because all of numbers say

581
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 1: bet division dogs next week, the Bys, the Falcons, the Colts,

582
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 1: the Patriots, the Saints, any bets you've made already.

583
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 2: Now just because honestly, we were watching that Washington game

584
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 2: to the last minute, so I really haven't. I mean this,

585
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 2: I just opened up the app and I'm looking at the

586
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 2: lines now. Yeah, it's it's tough because a couple ones

587
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 2: that jump out, I feel like I might be able

588
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 2: to get better value down the road. Like the Rams

589
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 2: are plus two and a half right now against Seattle

590
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 2: at home. That's going to go up right, like without

591
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 2: knowing which if Stafford is going to play or not,

592
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 2: and who the quarterback will be of the Rams. But

593
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 2: that's interesting. They hung a line. So you know again,

594
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 2: I tell you guys all the time, they take small

595
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 2: bets right now, like they're not taking anything over, you know,

596
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: a thousand bucks on these bets for the most part,

597
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 2: so that that to me is really jumps out, like

598
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: you can get Seahawks right now for under a field

599
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 2: goal against. I mean, who's the quarterback of the Rams?

600
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 2: Do you even know?

601
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: So?

602
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 2: I think they cut Brett Rippen, didn't they? And they

603
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 2: added Carson Wentz.

604
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 1: And they signed Carson Wentz and we're all hearing the

605
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: same thing that the expectation is he's going to be

606
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: a starting quarterback for the I want.

607
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,239
Speaker 2: To I want to fade the Seahawks here because I

608
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 2: just I think they're fraudulent. But am I not supposed

609
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 2: to take that two and a half. That's what sucks.

610
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 2: Like I feel like I'm supposed to take the Seahawks

611
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 2: and I can buy on my position later if it

612
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 2: is Stafford And obviously I'm gonna love the Rams like

613
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 2: a home divisional dog in that spot. That's a nice

614
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 2: spot for the Rams.

615
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: But well, it's divisional week. Look it's Tennessee plus uh

616
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 1: six at Jacksonville, you know, and like it's Mike Vrabel

617
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: in a spot.

618
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 2: It's already up to six and a half.

619
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: Well, great, then let's hold on because like this is

620
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 1: no different than betting Washington plus six in Philly, do

621
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: you know what I mean?

622
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 2: It is just because it's a rookie. You have to

623
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 2: keep remembering these quarterbacks now. And that's why, like again,

624
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 2: I you when you're trying to get me on Tennessee

625
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 2: this past week, and I wouldn't let you know. It

626
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 2: was just because CJ is the unicorn, right CJ's we

627
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: got to throw him out. But these rookies, Todd Bowles

628
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 2: defense completely shut this kid down. Like Tampa completely dominated

629
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 2: Tennessee today. And you'll see that with these rookies where

630
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, they might flash and pop and make

631
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 2: all right throws, but every game you're putting up more

632
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 2: film and they can track where it's like, okay, weill

633
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 2: Levis throws ninety percent of his balls to the middle

634
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 2: of the field. Let's just put everyone in the middle

635
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 2: of the field and make them throw outside. He couldn't

636
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 2: throw the ball outside. And it's like little things like that.

637
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: I get. I don't know if that's what they did

638
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: to him. I'm saying, that's how these teams take these

639
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 2: quarterbacks away. So at first glance, I get where you're

640
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 2: coming from. Rabel is a big divisional dog. Just wait,

641
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,479
Speaker 2: I think this could keep going up. Brother, I think

642
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 2: it might be able to you might be able to

643
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 2: get seven.

644
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: What about Pittsburgh plus three and a half this week

645
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: against Cleveland?

646
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 2: It's a plus four, um bet three six five. Well,

647
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 2: I'm grabbing it, especially that Brown's huge emotional win like

648
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 2: they just had. We know, Pittsburgh, they muddy the water,

649
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: you down in the mud, and they make you playing

650
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 2: these close, ugly games. And yeah, I mean, I agree

651
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 2: with the guys. They keep saying they're the luckiest team.

652
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 2: But mean you joked, it's like they were the luckiest

653
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 2: team in twenty nineteen, the luckiest team in twenty twenty,

654
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 2: luckiest team whatever it was last year. At what point

655
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: do you say it's not luck, it's just really good

656
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 2: coaching and that's just what they are, right with Tomlin?

657
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 2: Tomlin at the Helm. Yeah, exactly what. Yeah, I liked

658
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 2: that you went to that one. I definitely am with you.

659
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 2: I'm in line with you on that Pittsburgh number.

660
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 1: The other one that I looked at, which I hate. Yeah,

661
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 1: and there's part of me that things I might want

662
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 1: to bet the other side. Historically, we played the Bears

663
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 1: plus nine Lions. But like the Lions had been a

664
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 1: sick dog, Cents has been so good at home.

665
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 2: Just wait, I'll keep going up. People are gonna put

666
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: that in teasers. I think I'll hit ten.

667
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: Also, we think Justin Field is going to come back.

668
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 2: I'm hoping, I mean I really am, like you know.

669
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 1: But those were the and then the other one that

670
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 1: stuck out to me. Houston, which area or an eight

671
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 1: hour ago, is now at five against Arizona.

672
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 2: Now it's five and a half at BET three, six five,

673
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 2: So I'm just waiting, give me, give me Kyler at six.

674
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess, I guess some pushback would be

675
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 2: like you know, he he he looked. He did look

676
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 2: different today, Like right, I'm used to seeing old Kyler,

677
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 2: and to me, it's just him being rusting. I think

678
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: he'll get more comfortable as the games go along. Here.

679
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 2: But we saw the flash, like the moment where like

680
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 2: you know, he's about to get sacked and he does

681
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: that huge loop and he runs thirty yards across the

682
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 2: field and makes a bunch of guys miss and then

683
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 2: throws the ball down the field. It's like, that's why

684
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 2: this guy was a number one pick. Kyler has so

685
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 2: much unique and unusual skill set. I think people just

686
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 2: forget and like, no one was watching that game today, right,

687
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 2: I'm the only one that bet that over that Arizona

688
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 2: Atlanta game. So I had that on my big TV

689
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,520
Speaker 2: and like I'm locked in on it, and and you know,

690
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:05,320
Speaker 2: Arizona does stink. But Chad just said it, we're getting

691
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 2: them in a really big number here like this, this

692
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,479
Speaker 2: is this is too big. We've seen this Houston team

693
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 2: play close, right, they usually played down to their competition.

694
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 2: I mean they lost to Carolina Panthers. They they played

695
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:25,560
Speaker 2: a really close game against the Buccaneers. Like I'm with you, Chad,

696
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,879
Speaker 2: Like to me, you know, I'm gonna bet this five

697
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:29,479
Speaker 2: and a half just in case it does go down,

698
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 2: but like, if this gets the six, it's you know,

699
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 2: it's been a couple of weeks, but this might be

700
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 2: one of my bigger bets if this gets up to six,

701
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 2: because that's just that's just too much respect to CJ

702
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 2: in this Houston team, where I do think they're really

703
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:47,239
Speaker 2: good and he's incredible, but come on, man, like him

704
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,240
Speaker 2: catching six against Kyler, Like that's too much disrespect to Kyler.

705
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,280
Speaker 1: That that's the Texas might be one of those teams

706
00:35:55,480 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: that has had the biggest swing in power rating maybe

707
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 1: in the past five years in the middle of a season.

708
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 2: I would say week the week, though, their power ratings

709
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 2: week the week are really hard to do because, like

710
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 2: I just said, they they look like complete dog shit

711
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 2: against the Panthers, it was bizarre. Right now, he's had

712
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 2: back to back weeks where I think he's what put

713
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:17,760
Speaker 2: up more than thirty points CJ again.

714
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 1: And look that Cincinnati game. That defense, by the way,

715
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 1: we were pretty high on that defense.

716
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: They're really good.

717
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 1: And so he did something against the defense on the

718
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,799
Speaker 1: road that was ready to kind of.

719
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 2: And they had three turnovers like they used to in

720
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: three turnovers and they still won that game.

721
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 1: And that's a top five pass rush, like grading out

722
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 1: as a top five pass rush, which leads to Cincinnati

723
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 1: is a three and a half point dog at Baltimore

724
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 1: this week. I'm a little worried about Trey Hendrickson. We

725
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,320
Speaker 1: don't know what happened to him at the end of

726
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:55,800
Speaker 1: the game. Yeah so, but Cincinnati getting the hook at Baltimore.

727
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,399
Speaker 2: Right now, it's up to four brother, about three six five.

728
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 2: I don't know what to deal with it because it's

729
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,399
Speaker 2: a short week. It's a Thursday, and you know.

730
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 1: Those games, I just hate that.

731
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 2: I always favorite the home team on the Thursday because

732
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 2: it's a short week. They don't need to travel. That's

733
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,399
Speaker 2: a big deal when you're trying to heal your body, right,

734
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: Like there, they get to be at home, especially as

735
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:26,240
Speaker 2: you get later into the season here, you know, before

736
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 2: before before today, I probably had that set three and

737
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:34,720
Speaker 2: now without T Higgins And like you said, the Bengals

738
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 2: might have some injuries to some key players on their defense.

739
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 2: I would say the four is about right, Jad like

740
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 2: this probably should be four, four and a half just

741
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:47,280
Speaker 2: because it is such a short turnaround. And the Ravens

742
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 2: they're really good. I know they didn't look at today right,

743
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,280
Speaker 2: their defense didn't show up today, But throughout the season

744
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 2: their defense has been really good. So you know what,

745
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 2: what what unit do I have more faith in bouncing

746
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 2: back after a bad showing Between these two defenses, Yeah,

747
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Ravens, So especially them at home.

748
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 2: We know how on more plays at home compared to

749
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:11,280
Speaker 2: on the road. So not shocking to see that number

750
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 2: move up to four, because, like Chatty said, I was

751
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 2: three and a half. Now it's showing four any other game.

752
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: So we talked about Pittsburgh, We talked about Arizona quite

753
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 1: a bit, talked about Houston.

754
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 2: I just want to get your initial read on this

755
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 2: because I'm obviously biased. But Chiefs minus two and a

756
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 2: half at home against the Eagles.

757
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the Eagles.

758
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 2: Here, thank you, that's my guy love.

759
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 1: I love the Eagles in this spot. I feel like

760
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 1: they are performing at a higher level and more comfortable

761
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 1: with who they.

762
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 2: Are, especially offensively. It feels like offensively they keep getting

763
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 2: better and better every week. This Eagles team were the Chiefs.

764
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 2: They've just been spinning their tires now for weeks. But

765
00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 2: they've luckily been going against SUBPARP competition, like Miami should

766
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 2: have beat them, right, doesn't feel like they stole that

767
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 2: game from Miami where they didn't score a single point

768
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 2: in the second half, but they still somehow beat Miami,

769
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 2: which is crazy.

770
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 1: By the way, there is a plus three available minus

771
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 1: one oh five, So I am going to bet that

772
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: right now before it goes away and it's gone. It's

773
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,800
Speaker 1: down to two and a half again. Literally literally, as

774
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: I was pressing, bet changed to two and a half.

775
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's weird. They hung the three, but I get

776
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 2: it right. The chiefs at home, you got we always

777
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 2: talk mahomes at this number, Evan, is it up to

778
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 2: twenty twenty nine or twenty and six whatever it is? Right?

779
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 2: It was nineteen and six. I think now it's twenty

780
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 2: and six. I mean, I get it. Yeah, twenty six

781
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 2: and one. Wo scary, Chad, But it feels like the

782
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 2: Eagles are the better team right now. I was just

783
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:00,120
Speaker 2: I was trying not to be byas so I'm I'm

784
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 2: glad my man chat said it first.

785
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's an interesting one.

786
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 2: All right, sucks it sucks you missed the three though.

787
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,280
Speaker 1: That would have been nice, I know, right, such a tease.

788
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 1: All right, So Eagles plus two and a half, Pittsburgh

789
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 1: plus four, Arizona. We're waiting to see if it can

790
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 1: get to six. But you might take the five and

791
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 1: a half, right.

792
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 2: I already did. Yeah, I bet itive and a half.

793
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 1: I'm curious about Chicago plus nine. I'm gonna wait to

794
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 1: see if I can get a better number. I do

795
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:35,800
Speaker 1: feel like with a couple of these games this week,

796
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 1: I didn't get the best of the number. I bet

797
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 1: too quickly, So I'm going to try to be a

798
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 1: little bit more.

799
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 2: And just be careful of Chad because there's injuries. Brother, Like,

800
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 2: we're at the point of the season now where like

801
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 2: you know, I had no idea t Higgins was going

802
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 2: to miss the game this week, like you know that

803
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 2: that to me was a big deal. So yeah, definitely,

804
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,720
Speaker 2: we're getting late into the season here, people, things things change.

805
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 2: I definitely bet the way it change where I bet

806
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 2: a lot more now than I did early in the season.

807
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 2: But I don't make all though. I don't push all

808
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:11,320
Speaker 2: that money until you know, Saturday midday Saturday into Sunday morning,

809
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 2: because I want to exactly know who's going to play

810
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 2: in every game, and we're at the point of the

811
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:18,919
Speaker 2: year where you just you don't know until that final

812
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 2: injury report to really know who's going to play.

813
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 1: Well that's interesting to me, like because I was wondering

814
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: the same thing. When do I want to start pushing

815
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,319
Speaker 1: my bank roll a little bit and you are like,

816
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 1: you're betting significantly more now than you did before the

817
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 1: sea like earlier in the season.

818
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 2: Well, it all depends. Like I told you, my biggest

819
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 2: week is Week one, just because I'm able to bet

820
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 2: it for four or five months. I'm able to get

821
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 2: a ton of money down as soon as they open

822
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:46,959
Speaker 2: the lines. I can bet it every day if I want,

823
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 2: and they'll take the money. Because why I went to

824
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 2: the sportsbooks. Want to sit on your money for three

825
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 2: four months. But yeah, week two, Week three, not as much,

826
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 2: and then week four I started ramping up a little bit.

827
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:01,319
Speaker 2: I just remember this year. Yeah, we didn't start coming

828
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 2: out of the gate really hot, but I just remember,

829
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 2: like I noticed it was really favoring the favorites early

830
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 2: in the season, and you know, normally you think that

831
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 2: would give me pause, but it didn't gave me more

832
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 2: confidence to put more money on certain favorites to certain spots.

833
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:16,279
Speaker 2: And you know, one of my biggest bets of the

834
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,880
Speaker 2: year was that Bills against Miami. The Bills were at

835
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 2: the time, they're at home. Miami was, you know, I

836
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 2: viewed as the best team in football. I think it

837
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:27,359
Speaker 2: was just after they'd beat Denver by seventy points. Yeah yeah,

838
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 2: right now to date, that's probably my biggest bet, but

839
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 2: like yeah at this point, yeah, like again, A good

840
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 2: example of that Bengals game that took me thirty six

841
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 2: hours to buy it up of my position because I

842
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 2: had already put so much money into the Bengals and

843
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 2: then I have to go back the other side. It's

844
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 2: a pain in the ass. Yeah, So like that's why

845
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:48,839
Speaker 2: I'm like not just saying it to chat, I'm saying

846
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 2: it to myself, where it's like I got to stop

847
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 2: betting so much earlier in the week. There's just so

848
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:56,399
Speaker 2: many unknowns and we really don't know who's hurt until

849
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: you know, Thursday once, like they're really not practicing. It's like,

850
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,959
Speaker 2: oh shit, Skuy really might not play now. So yeah,

851
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 2: just everyone just be careful. It's even for my own self.

852
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 1: Be careful out there. That's all we're saying. As a

853
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,440
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854
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:13,040
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855
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856
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857
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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: live show Me and Simon special Live Favorites Podcast December

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Speaker 1: third at The Shepherd and the Knucklehead in Hoboken, New Jersey.

869
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Speaker 1: That's the Sunday show. Doors open around four pm, so

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Speaker 1: thirty on Sunday Night. Live show December third, Free entry,

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Speaker 1: free drinks, bet with Me and Simon. The info is

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Speaker 1: in the description page for this YouTube episode, or go

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Speaker 1: to eventwright dot com search the Favorites podcast for more.

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Speaker 1: Also continue to watch us our next episode Our next

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Speaker 1: live episode on YouTube Tuesday one forty five pm. Action

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Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify five Apple Podcast wherever you get

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Speaker 1: what or you want. Feedback is gift till Tuesday one

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