WEBVTT - Early Look at Week 4 NFL Lines (Ep. 108) 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:16.720 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:19.400 to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:22.520 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. Week three 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:25.439 is almost over. It is time to look ahead at 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:28.400 the lines for week four. There are some intriguing things 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:29.960 we're gonna want to talk about here. To do it 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:32.120 with me is Pat fitz Morris. You can find him 0:00:32.560 --> 0:00:36.800 on Twitter at fits underscore ff. He is a senior 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:39.839 editor here at Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros. Pat. Thank 0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:42.199 you for joining me this morning. How you doing great? Dan? 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:44.919 Week four looks pretty fun. I can't wait to talk 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:45.400 about it. 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:48.120 The Thursday night game gets us off on a really 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:52.680 disgusting start, but you know, I guess it'll get better, right. 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:54.320 Yes, it does get a lot better. 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:57.600 But even the worst football game is the best football game, 0:00:57.600 --> 0:00:59.720 as we saw sort of, even with the Panthers in 0:00:59.760 --> 0:01:01.800 the town. So let's get into all of it here 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:03.600 for week four. Before we do, let me tell you 0:01:03.640 --> 0:01:06.560 about the latest offer from bet MGM. New customers can 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:09.759 bet five dollars and win one hundred dollars in free 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:12.440 bets if they bet on an NFL football game and 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:15.760 either team scores a touchdown, so you get that you 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.040 have five dollars. 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All you got to do to be 0:01:47.640 --> 0:01:49.680 entered is lead review for the show on Apple Podcasts 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:52.960 or cash Box and then go to be Bettingpros dot 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:56.720 com sorry slash review. That is it three times the entries. 0:01:56.760 --> 0:01:58.680 By the way, if you subscribe to the Betting Pros 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:01.440 YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. And again, 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.280 every Sunday morning, we do a live stream me and 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:06.680 Matt Pearl from eleven to twelve. We talked about our 0:02:06.720 --> 0:02:08.720 best bets, we talked about props. It's a lot of fun. 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:11.600 So again, leave a review for the show on Apple 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:14.440 podcast or castbox and go to Bettingpros dot com slash 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.519 review and subscribe to our YouTube channel three times the entries. 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.040 All right, Pat, let's get into it with the game 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.400 that everybody wants to see. It is the Jaguars visiting 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:24.600 the Bengals. You told me the Bengals were going to 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:26.320 be a seven and a half point favorite over anyone 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:28.280 this year. I might have added you at the beginning. 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.000 But the consensus line is seven and a half. There 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.880 are some sevens out there. Again at bettingpros dot com 0:02:33.880 --> 0:02:36.280 we have consensus lines. Where have books from all over. 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:39.560 I'm DraftKings, Pat, You've talked how you do DraftKings. It's 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:42.560 seven there, but against consensus line seven and a half. 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:45.440 The total consensus total forty five and a half. So 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:47.040 just what's your reaction to that line? 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:49.520 Yeah, so that hook is going to be all important. Dan, 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:52.520 I think I'm inclined to take the points if I 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:56.239 can get Jacksonville, Like I know, that had to be 0:02:56.280 --> 0:03:00.360 a big game for the Bengals against their longtime rivals Dealers. 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:03.360 To go in in Pittsburgh and win that game, you 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:05.720 just wonder if they might be looking a little bit 0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:09.320 past the next game on the schedule, or weren't maybe 0:03:09.560 --> 0:03:12.839 thinking that much about that one. So, you know, big 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:15.480 game for the Jaguars. They were actually scrappy er this 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:19.119 past week. Things got away from them against the Cardinals. 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:22.520 They just ran into too much firepower worth with Kyler 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:25.840 Murray in that offense. But yeah, seven and a half, 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:28.600 Just laying seven or seven and a half with the 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:31.679 Bengals just doesn't feel good. And the seven and a 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:36.240 half is that's just I can't quite get over that 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:37.280 big obstacle. 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:40.840 So I make this analogy I probably last time. It's 0:03:40.880 --> 0:03:42.840 one of my favorite ones. I'm a big movie person. 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.160 Random movie scenes pop into my head when I'm thinking 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:47.080 about something, and I think of the Princess Bride, and 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:50.160 I think of the Zeni doing the wine glasses and 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:52.160 just looking at this game and the spread of being 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:55.440 like I clearly cannot choose the wine in front of you, 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:57.640 and I clearly can choose the wine in front of me, 0:03:58.000 --> 0:03:59.920 because that's what this is, and it strikes me. Pat 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:02.320 is like, I'm gonna look at every Jaguars spread and 0:04:02.320 --> 0:04:04.200 I'm gonna be like, oh, there's value on the Jags 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:06.840 right now. Like there is very clearly value on a 0:04:06.920 --> 0:04:09.960 seven and a half point spread on the Bengals coming 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:13.360 off a giant win here against the Steelers. It's a 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:17.040 prime letdown spot the Jaguars, right they fought, they fought. 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:18.839 I mean they got Look, they got a one hundred 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:21.200 and nine yard kickoff return. That's not gonna happen every time. 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:23.320 But there were moments where you said, oh my god, 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:25.839 they're going to beat the Cardinals at this point. But 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:27.800 it reminds me of the Jets the other year where 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:29.920 you were just like, I can't I know there's value 0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:32.160 on the Jets, but I can't take the Jets right 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:35.280 now because there's such a dumpster fire. So I think 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:36.880 in the end it's just gonna be something I stay 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:40.000 away from. Padded, it's not it's not something I can 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:42.440 go near. The total also forty five and a half 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:45.920 forty six. Actually it's between forty five vanduels forty five 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.760 bet MGM is forty six, so forty five and a half. 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:50.440 I don't really see value on the total. 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:54.480 Do you No, I don't either way. That seems like 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:58.360 something I'm just gonna lay off entirely. I will make 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:01.280 the case for Jacksonville, Dana. I do think they are 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:05.000 a livelier bad team than either the Texans or the 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:08.919 Jets right now. Jets might have a lively defense, but 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:12.560 their offense is pretty much non functional. There were moments 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:16.080 of functionality with Trevor Lawrence and that offense yesterday, and 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:18.760 I think he's going to turn the corner pretty abruptly 0:05:18.800 --> 0:05:23.280 at some point and at least be capable. I mean, 0:05:23.320 --> 0:05:25.440 he's just making bad decisions right now, and I think 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:27.240 he's going to pick it up pretty quickly. He's made 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.400 more bad decisions in three games than we saw him 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:34.400 making three years at Clemson, So you know, I think 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:37.760 that's going to turn around. The defense isn't totally awful, 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:41.039 so I think they're a little scrappier than some of 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.640 these other just complete dumpster fire teams. 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:47.960 Twenty twenty one Jaguars moments of functionality. Let's go to 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:53.279 the Texans visiting the Bills seventeen point favorite. No big 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:56.400 deal here, the totals forty eight. What do you do, 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:58.960 pat when you have a spread this large. I mean, 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:01.919 is there any value on taking the dog at this 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:03.120 point given where we are? 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:07.320 Yeah, just like I don't like betting Alabama Vanderbilt games 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:11.159 in college, Dan, I really shy away from a line 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:15.080 like this. I mean, there's just so much wiggle room 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:17.560 for the underdog here, and yet I can't take the 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:20.159 underdog because Buffalo really does look like one of the 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:23.680 three or four best teams in the league. Their defense 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:28.360 now matches their offense, if not more so. And you know, 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:33.640 even though the Texans were fairly scrappy against Carolina, another 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:37.320 good defense last week, and even though they've had we'll 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:39.720 have had ten days to prepare for this one, I 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:42.279 can't take them with the points. I'm this is a 0:06:42.320 --> 0:06:42.880 stay away. 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:46.560 There's no way, there's no way you can take the 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:51.320 Texans in this game, just because again the Bills. You're right, Pat, 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:53.839 Like I realized that Josh Allen in the first couple 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:56.680 of games, he looked great on Sunday, but I realized 0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:58.480 that there was some like, oh, this looks a little 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:01.039 like the old Josh Allen. Who knows what we're gonna see? 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:04.839 Their defense has been so incredibly impressive to me, and 0:07:04.880 --> 0:07:07.000 I know they've had a great pass defense, but you 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:08.719 know they're run to you just all over the place. 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:11.320 They look really, really good. There's no way I can 0:07:11.360 --> 0:07:13.560 take it. But I also like, like, I can't take 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:17.280 a team lank seventeen points. I just I can't do that, 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:20.120 you know, no matter what fluky things can happen to 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:22.200 allow them to cover. And the total. Again, also one 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:24.800 of these things where I assume you agree is just like 0:07:24.840 --> 0:07:27.400 I don't really know how to feel about like watching 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:29.240 this game, I have no idea what the total could be. 0:07:29.240 --> 0:07:31.880 I mean, the Bills could get there by themselves realistically 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:33.720 or right. But if they don't, who knows what it's 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:35.640 going to be. So that is a stay away for me, 0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:37.000 at least on that side. Wuld agree with that. 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:40.280 On the total, I do because if it does play 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:43.240 out as they expect and you know, the Texans, I 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:46.800 think they're expected point total based on the line is 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:49.360 something like fifteen and a half points, And if it 0:07:49.400 --> 0:07:51.920 does get out of hand, you could see the Bills 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:53.840 taking the arrow out of the ball and just giving 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.080 it to Zach Moss and Devin Singletary a lot in 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:59.760 the second half, And you know, I could see the 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.160 Bill going over by themselves, or I could see this 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:05.240 just being a really dead second half where we see 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:08.640 seven or ten points scored after intermission. 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:11.920 All right, Saints are at home length and they will 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:14.360 be at home for this game. Right, I read they're 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.560 back to Nordy, I think so. I think they were cleared, 0:08:17.560 --> 0:08:19.880 So I think they're home and they will be laying 0:08:19.960 --> 0:08:23.239 eight to the zero to three Giants a low total 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:24.640 here forty three and a half. What do you think? 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:29.480 I always kind of like taking the teams dand coming 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:33.880 off really disappointing victories against the fat and happy teams 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:36.400 coming off a win. At least if the team coming 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:39.000 off the disappointed victory is good enough to do something 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:42.000 about it, that's the open question with the Giants. I 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:44.160 don't know if they're good enough to do anything about it. 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:47.360 But like when teams are a little bit embarrassed, and 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:51.440 I think you're embarrassed losing a home game to the Falcons. Yeah, 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:53.000 I think they're going to come out a little a 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:55.760 little angry at this one. So I'm inclined to take 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:57.800 the points here. I kind of like the Giants. 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:00.440 Does the fact, like all the injury that they have 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:02.360 on offense, I realize when you're doing you know, the 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:04.280 most important things when you're looking at the line really 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:06.559 are like offensive line injuries and everything like that. But that, 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:09.319 I mean, they're probably not gonna have Startling Sheppard. They're 0:09:09.360 --> 0:09:11.760 probably not going to have you know, Darius Slayton in 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:14.280 this game. Sakuon look good. Yesterday we talked about so 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:16.120 maybe the offense opens up a little bit. Does that 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:18.320 matter to you whatsoever their health or you just think 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:19.080 there's value. 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:22.360 Regarding that much because they get Evan ingram back. I 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:26.120 actually think Colin Johnson. I was surprised that Jacks released him, 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:30.080 Like he's a decent fill in player and you know, 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:33.640 had a couple of catches for them yesterday. So yeah, 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:36.400 I just kind of like them, and nothing about that 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:38.959 Saints offense has really impressed me. They've done a great 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:42.200 job taking short fields, yes, and punching it in on 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:45.520 short fields so far. But like we haven't seen eighty 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:50.840 yards seventy yards sustained drives from Jamis yet, you know, 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:54.200 I don't know if they can get that from him consistently, 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.880 Like that's always been Jamis's thing. He'll he'll zip it 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.560 down in a couple of plays sometimes but sometimes when 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:02.480 you ask Jameis to go eighty or ninety yards, you're 0:10:02.480 --> 0:10:05.040 going to get that turnover first before you get points. 0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:08.559 So do you think there's any chance that this gets 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:11.080 down to a touchdown by the time we get to Sunday? Like, 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:13.040 is there any value if you like the dog right 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:14.920 now taking it now? Or do you think that it's 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:16.160 probably going to end up here at eight? 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:19.480 I think it'll probably end up at eight. I don't 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:24.640 think it gets bet down just because I know I 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:27.600 would think the Saints are the more public team here. Sure, 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:32.360 so yeah, I don't necessarily I don't know. I wouldn't 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:34.440 be opposed to pouncing on it now, but I don't 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:36.800 think it's urgent. I don't think that line's going to 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:38.360 be driven way down. 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:42.120 It strikes me as a very sharp versus public type 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:45.040 of game, right, I think, like right, the number of 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:47.840 bets is going to be heavily weighted to the Saints. 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:49.720 The amount of money is probably going to be pretty 0:10:49.800 --> 0:10:52.120 much fifty to fifty in this game. But if there 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:53.760 is a side to take care, I agree with you 0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:57.280 because I think the Saints are I think ideally you 0:10:57.400 --> 0:10:59.600 know that the Saints right now, do not want Winston 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:01.480 throwing out up like crazy. We talked about a little 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:04.200 bit yesterday and the Fantasy Bros. Podcast that they want 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:06.120 to be conservative if they can, which I think is 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:09.040 going to bleed the clock. I mean, realistically, Pat, even 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:11.360 though it's a low total, I think there's probably value 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:13.120 on the under. I don't think I'll bet it on 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:14.560 the forty three and a half because it's such a 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:17.040 low total, but it strikes me as a game where, 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:19.959 you know, similar to the Falcons Giants game yesterday, which 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.760 I think hit thirty one right seventeen fourteen strikes me 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:25.880 as kind of a slow moving defensive game where the 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:28.000 clock's just going to kind of run a little bit here, 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.160 And I could see value on the under, but I'm 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:33.320 not betting it because I just it's right under in it. 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:35.880 Other than the Jets Broncos, where I felt very confident 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:37.839 in the under in that game, I just don't think 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:39.880 there's a lot of you know, you can't feel good 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:41.840 about betting any under in the NFL pretty much. 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.120 Yeah, So I'm kind of with you there, Dan, I 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:46.600 could see that sort of game developing, But I could 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:50.360 also see with a Daniel Jones versus Jameis Winston game 0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:53.640 turnovers and short fields which can pile up points in 0:11:53.679 --> 0:11:57.120 a hurry. So it's a game that could kind of 0:11:57.160 --> 0:12:00.079 go one of two ways with that total, and I 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:02.800 just don't want to try to guess which way it's 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:03.160 going to go. 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:05.839 That's an outstanding point. Actually, there could be a lot 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:08.520 of short fields in that game, so I would say way. 0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:10.800 But you know, it does strike me as absentely that 0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:13.000 neither team is going to pile up the points. Let's 0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:18.720 go to the Eagles at home getting six from the 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:22.600 one and two Chiefs, which is a little bizarre. The 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:25.200 total is fifty five. Now, we are recording this on Monday, 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:27.000 early on during the day. We have not seen the 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:30.920 Eagles play yet tonight. There could be injuries. This line 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:34.160 certainly could move depending on what happens. But just looking 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:36.000 at it right now, what do you think here? The 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:38.520 Eagles getting six at home, total of fifty five? 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:42.320 Oh, man, Dan, I think the last time I won 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:45.080 a bet on the Chiefs, like taking them with a spread, 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:49.439 like either Alex Smith was quarterback, maybe it was Todd Blackledge. 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:52.800 I can't remember. It's been a long time. So yeah, 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:56.000 I just like I hate the Chiefs giving away that 0:12:56.120 --> 0:13:01.560 sort of heavy total against you know, a capable team 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:05.040 on the road. I really like the Eagles in this one. 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.599 I just the Chiefs don't seem quite all there the 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:13.960 formula they're using right now, which you know Patrick Mahomes 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:17.640 wins the games. Just try to maybe bend but not 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.200 break as the defense force a couple of turnovers. Like 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:23.480 it's this defense is not especially good, Like they are 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:27.160 very turnover dependent, and if they don't get those turnovers, 0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:30.800 you can move the ball on them. And you know, 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.520 plus we've got a live quarterback on the other side 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.800 with Jalen Hurts who's gonna make plays. It's gonna be 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:40.560 a fun game. But I would absolutely take the Eagles 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:42.160 in this. I don't want to lay the points with 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:42.680 the Chiefs. 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:45.280 Yeah, there's no way you can take the Chiefs, I think. 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:47.400 And also, by the way, if you do like the 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:50.320 Chiefs at all, like you don't need to worry about 0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:53.320 like it's not getting at seven unless something crazy happens 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:55.880 tonight obviously or something like like Hurts goes down or something. 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.800 But it's not getting to seven because this is what 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:02.440 I mean, everybody, it's that spread against starters stuck at 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:05.720 six six and a half all week because you knew 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:07.680 exactly what's going on. The Chiefs just don't cover. But 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:09.520 I agree with you, Pat, Like the biggest thing that 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:11.160 sticks out to me right now about the Chiefs is 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.720 that defense, which again last year was was fine, you know, 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.839 but this year it's really just a you know, they're 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:19.760 going to give up a ton of yards. Maybe they 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:21.280 can keep you out of the end zone. For the 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:24.640 most part, it's bad. It's a bad defense right now, 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.840 and it's really hard to feel confident at all against 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:30.120 a team that doesn't cover the spread on its best 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:32.120 day anyway, right Like, that's just not what they do. 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:34.880 They win games, but they don't. So I agree with you. 0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:36.280 I like the Eagles here go ahead. 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:38.080 Sorry, no, I was just going to add one more 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:41.760 thing that with Andy Reid hospitalized after that last game, 0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:43.520 it's not going to be a normal work week for 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.560 the Chiefs, which is another thing to factor and I think. 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:49.200 I think that's a great call there as well. So 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:51.640 again we'll see what happens tonight, but I do lean Eagles. 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:56.000 Washington is visiting Atlanta. The Falcons are favored here by 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:58.320 a point which I don't know why it struck me 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:00.520 as a little strange, but maybe not. I'll be interested 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:02.480 to hear you and the totals forty eight and a half. 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:03.400 What do you think about this one? 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:06.080 Sounds like we're thinking the same thing, that this is 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:10.920 probably a good spot for Washington. I guess just fundamentally, 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:13.760 my opinion of Washington has not changed that much, even 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.000 though I've kind of been disappointed with their results these 0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:18.480 first three weeks. Like I think that defense is better 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:23.000 than it's played, and you know, I just think this 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:25.960 shapes up as a pretty good team versus a pretty 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:30.000 bad team, and you know, I'm willing to take the 0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:31.600 road team here. 0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:36.560 Yeah, it's surprising to me, Like I assumed Washington would 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:40.280 be fair. I get that their defense has been somewhat disappointing. 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:42.960 I understand that, but I mean, playing the Bill I 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:45.440 think really yesterday what we saw, Pat is we saw 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:49.280 a really really good Bills team, like just kind of 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:52.920 stick it to them, Like I don't blame them nearly 0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:56.000 as much as I credit the Bills in that game. 0:15:56.680 --> 0:16:00.600 So yeah, that's crazy to me. Actually, I really In fact, 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:02.480 I'm going to fire on it probably in the middle 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:06.120 of this podcast. No, No, offense too. I like to 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:07.880 do that bad in the middle of podcasts where I 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.400 see something be like, okay, yeah, I would. I mean again, 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:13.440 it's you know, whether a team is favored by one 0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:16.280 or laying one Like It's not a huge difference obviously, 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:17.560 so I don't think you have to rush to do 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:19.800 it or anything like that. But the wrong team is 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:23.280 favored in this matchup in my opinion, Cowboys laying four 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.080 and a half to the Panthers with the total of fifty. 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:29.240 Once again, we have not seen the Cowboys yet play tonight, 0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:31.600 so maybe something happens. Four and a half is in 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.440 that dead zone here for a team we don't know. 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:37.960 Christian McCaffrey's status less than a grade one hamstring straight 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:40.080 is what we were hearing. But I still wouldn't expect 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:43.160 them to necessarily play even with the ten days. They 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:45.760 just made a trade right before we did, to trade 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:48.120 Dan Arnold and bolster their cornerback in it. So what 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:49.760 do you think here, Cowboys laying four and a half 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:53.080 at home coming off a short week Panthers off the minibi. 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:56.800 As much as I respect the Panthers defense and think 0:16:56.840 --> 0:17:00.800 that is a very legitimate unit this year, I think 0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:04.040 I like the Cowboys a little bit here against the 0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:07.560 depleted You know, I am going to make the leap 0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:09.760 of faith and assume that Christian McCaffrey is not going 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:13.920 to play in this one. So I think they are 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:16.960 just gonna have a little too much firepower for the Panthers. 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:19.520 As good as that defense is, I don't know if 0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:25.439 they can completely hold down the Dallas offense. And you know, 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:28.640 I just I think at home, the Cowboys should probably 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:29.520 get this done. 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:32.480 Interesting, I think I come on the other side, pat 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:34.360 and again, I don't think that this is something where 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:36.200 you have to bet it either way, right because it's 0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:38.160 in that dead zone. It's not like it's getting a three. 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:39.680 It's not like it's getting a seven. It's four and 0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:42.960 a half. You're fine either way. But you know, to me, 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:45.679 I mean, look, kudos to the Cowboys for winning that 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:48.840 game against the Chargers last week, where I like, I 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:51.560 was on the Chargers getting three or laying three in 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:55.520 that game. Sorry, so kudos to them, But you know 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.760 their offensive line is, you know, so you know, just 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:02.240 you know, well, Collins obviously down. It's fine. It hasn't 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:04.560 played quite as well as sort of I expected. They 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.800 have injuries on defense. I feel like either way, the Cowboys, 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:10.480 I don't want to say this the wrong way. I 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:12.400 don't know if they have the mentality to go out 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.000 there and win a game by two touchdowns at this point, 0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:16.639 like they just seem like the type of team that 0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:19.800 will let you hang around. And even without Christian McCaffrey, 0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:22.760 the Panthers don't look like world beaters certainly there, but 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:25.080 Juba Hubbard is able to get it done and out. 0:18:25.240 --> 0:18:28.720 DJ Moore is a star. Robbie Anderson is still there. 0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:31.040 I don't know what he's doing exactly, but they have 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:33.000 enough I think where they can keep it close. So 0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:35.520 I think if I'm getting overfield goal in this game, again, 0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:38.359 not having seen what happens tonight, I'm willing to kind 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:40.199 of ride with the Panthers in this one. Do you 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:41.760 like the total back, because I mean, I think you 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.240 think the Cowboys are gonna score. It's fifty, so it's 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:46.320 a high total, But do you have any value there 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:46.919 with that one? 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:49.640 I'm inclined to go over on this one. I don't 0:18:49.680 --> 0:18:52.240 think there's gonna be just enough. And boy, I mean 0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:55.639 that's maybe counterintuitive. As good as I've felt about the 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:59.000 Panthers defense, like that's been one of the biggest surprises 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.440 of the season. I think how good they have been. Yeah, 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:06.960 and you know, almost borderline elite defense. But you know, 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:09.440 I still think Dallas, even with the offensive line wells 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:11.960 can put up points on them. And I don't think 0:19:12.040 --> 0:19:14.520 Dallas is going to completely shut down Carolina, So I 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:17.520 do think it's probably going to squeeze over that that 0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:18.679 fifty total. 0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:20.840 I agree, And again it's a lot of fifteen and 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:23.160 a half's already out there, so it's it's in between. 0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:24.639 But I agree with you. I lean the over, and 0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:27.640 I have been impressed as well with the Panthers defense, 0:19:27.920 --> 0:19:30.440 But I don't think you're stopping I don't think really 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:33.320 there is a defense that can fully stop the Cowboys 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:35.960 offense so long as Dak is healthy and he's got 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:39.200 at least two pass catchers and both running backs really 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:41.400 are putting up points. So I agree, I lean over 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:45.760 here with the fifty. Let's go to the Browns visiting Minnesota. 0:19:45.960 --> 0:19:49.639 The Vikings are laying one point and the total is 0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:51.840 fifty two and a half. As a game, I'm excited 0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:53.760 to watch. What do you think here about the spread? 0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:58.359 I am probably considering this a stay away because I 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:00.720 do think this works out to be basically a true 0:20:00.720 --> 0:20:04.200 coin flip with the Vikings at home against a good team. 0:20:04.400 --> 0:20:06.040 I may have said the Vikings are laying one, by 0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:08.359 the way, if I did, it's the Browns are getting Okay, 0:20:08.240 --> 0:20:10.800 they're getting one. I apologize, I apologize. Yeah, the Browns 0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:13.680 are the favorite by one. Again, it doesn't matter that much, 0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:15.480 you know, when you're when you're thinking about it, whether 0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:17.560 you're laying one, whether you're getting one. But the Browns here, 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.160 I'm sorry, are laying one. Sorry if I misspoken, Yeah, 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:20.679 that's okay. 0:20:21.080 --> 0:20:23.800 So I think the the spread is a stay away 0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:25.640 from me. I'm more interested in the total and maybe 0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:28.280 playing this one under. Just the way the Browns play. 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:32.080 I think they, you know, are the ultimate ball control 0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:36.359 team and uh sort of want to play slow, whereas 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:38.840 maybe Minnesota might want to push the tempo a little bit. 0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:41.480 I think the Browns want to go four corners a 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:43.480 little bit here, run the ball with Chubb and haunts, 0:20:43.920 --> 0:20:47.320 have Baker manage the game. That's kind of been the 0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:49.879 Stefanski formula this season, and I think it's going to 0:20:49.920 --> 0:20:50.560 apply here too. 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:53.199 I agree with you. You know the Dolphin, that the 0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:56.960 Dolphin's gonna Sorry, the Vikings are explosive really this year, 0:20:57.040 --> 0:20:58.840 you know, more than ever, and Cousins is playing great, 0:20:58.920 --> 0:21:01.600 and the receivers are playing really well, and you know, 0:21:01.640 --> 0:21:04.840 you've got the ton End now involve. But realistically, I 0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:08.840 think that this game is kind of a slugfest in 0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:12.000 a slower moving game than I think most people are 0:21:12.000 --> 0:21:14.720 going to expect. So at fifty two and a half, 0:21:14.760 --> 0:21:17.520 that's what it was, that's that's too high for me, 0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:19.360 So I am going to go under there as well. 0:21:19.600 --> 0:21:21.439 And the other point I would make about that is 0:21:21.520 --> 0:21:24.240 just that if the Vikings had maybe a band in 0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:28.320 the run yesterday without Dalvin Cook, I might feel a 0:21:28.320 --> 0:21:30.720 little differently at all. But they really didn't, Like they're 0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:32.760 not going to get away from the running game entirely 0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:36.760 under Mike Sammer, like we've seen that for several years now, 0:21:37.000 --> 0:21:39.160 and they didn't get away from it yesterday. 0:21:39.240 --> 0:21:41.320 So yeah, and they didn't need I'm Madison look great, 0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:44.320 So that's good that they stuck with it. So even 0:21:44.359 --> 0:21:45.800 if Cook is out, which I kind of think he 0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:48.000 might be for this one, just given what you know, 0:21:48.040 --> 0:21:51.200 he didn't sound particularly close to playing it. Doesn't really 0:21:51.240 --> 0:21:52.840 matter in terms of how we view the game. So 0:21:52.960 --> 0:21:54.560 I agree with you there. Let's go to the Cults 0:21:54.560 --> 0:21:57.440 are visiting the Dolphins. The Dolphins are laying a point 0:21:57.440 --> 0:21:59.520 and a half and the total is a low forty 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:00.520 three and a half. What do you think. 0:22:01.240 --> 0:22:06.320 I don't think I can support the Colts they're in 0:22:06.359 --> 0:22:09.080 a road game with unless they're getting more points than that. 0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:13.000 But man, this is a this is a tough one. 0:22:13.040 --> 0:22:15.320 Like this is just two teams I do not trust 0:22:15.440 --> 0:22:18.560 at all, So I probably will not touch this one. 0:22:19.160 --> 0:22:20.800 I don't know how you feel about it, Dan, if 0:22:20.840 --> 0:22:23.600 either of these teams grabs you, But have they given 0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:27.440 us a reason to want to throw our arms around 0:22:27.440 --> 0:22:28.320 them yet either one? 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:31.240 I will. I will be watching this game because we 0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:33.840 watch every football game pat as our job, both as 0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:36.520 you know, on both sides. But I have no interest 0:22:36.560 --> 0:22:39.480 in having like a vested interest in this game on 0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:42.880 one in one way or another. No, I don't. And again, look, 0:22:42.920 --> 0:22:45.320 if you forced me, right, if you were like, hey, Dan, 0:22:45.520 --> 0:22:47.760 here's one hundred bucks you have to bet it on 0:22:47.840 --> 0:22:50.800 this game, I'd probably just take the Dolphins because I 0:22:50.800 --> 0:22:53.920 think they probably wind up coming out ahead in this game. 0:22:54.040 --> 0:22:56.640 But I would have no confidence in doing it whatsoever, 0:22:56.800 --> 0:22:59.560 So just to stand away for me, not a game 0:22:59.560 --> 0:23:02.480 I want to get any piece of. So let's move 0:23:02.520 --> 0:23:05.240 on to uh. I don't know how I feel about 0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:07.840 this one. Pat is the Bears at home against the Lions. 0:23:08.320 --> 0:23:10.840 They're length three and a half, so get that hook 0:23:10.920 --> 0:23:13.280 if you want to take the Lions. And the total 0:23:13.440 --> 0:23:16.240 is also forty three and a half. Justin fields. We 0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:19.840 talked about it yesterday on our fantasy podcast. Looked terrible, 0:23:19.920 --> 0:23:23.760 the offensive line was abysmal. The Bears offense looked broken. 0:23:24.359 --> 0:23:26.520 I assume it's still gonna be fields in this one 0:23:26.600 --> 0:23:29.400 just from everything I've seen about Dalton not being ready yet. 0:23:29.480 --> 0:23:31.199 So what do you think here? With them length three 0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:32.280 and a half against the Lions. 0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:34.760 Doesn't it feel like the odds makers just sort of 0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:36.959 threw up their arms with this one and didn't know 0:23:37.000 --> 0:23:41.119 what to do with it. And you know, under Dan Campbell, 0:23:41.160 --> 0:23:44.600 the Lions have indeed been biting kneecaps. Dan, I mean 0:23:44.720 --> 0:23:49.640 they've they refused to let the forty nine ers put 0:23:49.640 --> 0:23:52.879 them away in week one. You know, Week two against 0:23:52.920 --> 0:23:54.760 the Packers kind of got away from them. But then 0:23:54.880 --> 0:23:58.080 yesterday they should have probably I mean they should have 0:23:58.200 --> 0:24:01.520 and they shouldn't have won that game. Hollywood Brown should 0:24:01.520 --> 0:24:06.359 have had like two or three touchdown catches, and yet 0:24:06.480 --> 0:24:11.200 the Lions it took that sixty six yard bounce off 0:24:11.280 --> 0:24:15.040 the uprights field goal to put them away. So they 0:24:15.200 --> 0:24:19.120 have been really scrappy. On the other hand, two weeks ago, 0:24:19.160 --> 0:24:20.960 we saw the Bears put together a pretty good game 0:24:21.000 --> 0:24:24.040 at home against the Bengals, and you know, they're one 0:24:24.160 --> 0:24:27.280 solid effort this season. I do think they've got a 0:24:27.280 --> 0:24:29.920 better team. Like I've been almost pleasantly surprised by the 0:24:29.960 --> 0:24:34.280 Bears defense. The front seven has been pretty good, actually 0:24:34.440 --> 0:24:36.119 covering up for some of the holes they might have 0:24:36.200 --> 0:24:40.239 in the back end. And meanwhile, like Detroit's got some 0:24:40.400 --> 0:24:42.920 major coverage issues. I mean, this was one of the 0:24:42.960 --> 0:24:45.920 worst groups of cornerbacks to begin with, and they lose 0:24:46.000 --> 0:24:51.240 Jeffrey Akuda, their best cornerback, and then Melafan who's probably 0:24:51.280 --> 0:24:54.159 their second best guy. And I forgive me for not 0:24:54.600 --> 0:24:57.320 knowing whether there's any chance if Malafanu who comes back 0:24:57.359 --> 0:24:59.840 this week, But I mean, they had so many blown 0:24:59.840 --> 0:25:03.280 c against the Ravens, and like the Ravens just couldn't 0:25:03.320 --> 0:25:09.040 fully cash in yesterday. But I think even as dysfunctional 0:25:09.040 --> 0:25:12.400 as that Bear's passing game look this past week, Yeah, 0:25:12.480 --> 0:25:15.520 I think it's destined to look a little better. It 0:25:15.560 --> 0:25:18.119 has to, dan, doesn't. I mean, like Matt Nagy is 0:25:18.160 --> 0:25:20.119 not going to be there next year, but he's playing 0:25:20.160 --> 0:25:23.560 for his next job, and whether that's like a job 0:25:23.640 --> 0:25:25.760 as a a you know, maybe an O C or 0:25:25.800 --> 0:25:30.119 a quarterbacks coach at the NFL level, or you know, 0:25:30.160 --> 0:25:34.480 the quarterbacks coach at with the San Diego State Aztecs 0:25:34.520 --> 0:25:38.080 next year. Like he's a young coach, he's still got 0:25:38.119 --> 0:25:40.280 a career ahead of him, and like he better get 0:25:40.320 --> 0:25:43.880 this ironed out with fields fast, yeah, or he's gonna 0:25:43.880 --> 0:25:45.240 be in Siberia next year. 0:25:45.760 --> 0:25:47.959 I assume that it's going to be better than what 0:25:48.000 --> 0:25:50.000 we saw yesterday. But Pat, you and I could be 0:25:50.040 --> 0:25:51.680 out on the football field and it might be better 0:25:51.680 --> 0:25:54.960 than what we saw yesterday. All Right, I'm not gonna 0:25:54.960 --> 0:25:56.920 bet this game. I'm not. I'm just gonna be transparent. 0:25:56.960 --> 0:25:59.359 I'm not gonna bet this game. There's no way, because 0:25:59.359 --> 0:26:01.760 I don't feel common either way. But I think if 0:26:01.800 --> 0:26:04.560 it stays here where I'm getting the hook, I'll take 0:26:04.560 --> 0:26:07.320 the hook, and I'll assume that even if the Bears 0:26:07.480 --> 0:26:10.199 pull it together and it gets better from what we 0:26:10.240 --> 0:26:13.439 saw yesterday, that the Lions figure out a way to 0:26:13.520 --> 0:26:16.120 keep it close and get the garbage time with Swift 0:26:16.200 --> 0:26:18.240 and sort of keeping it there and keeping it within 0:26:18.280 --> 0:26:21.280 a field goal. In a divisional game where I can't 0:26:21.359 --> 0:26:25.560 trust either team, I will just basically take the hook. 0:26:25.960 --> 0:26:28.720 It surprises me a little bit here because I think 0:26:28.720 --> 0:26:31.399 it begs you to take the hook, and I don't 0:26:31.480 --> 0:26:35.000 know why the bookmakers necessarily would want that. I mean 0:26:35.240 --> 0:26:38.560 maybe maybe with what you're saying, like it makes sense 0:26:38.560 --> 0:26:41.040 that they would, but I don't know how you can 0:26:41.040 --> 0:26:43.720 feel confident in either team at this point. So it's 0:26:43.920 --> 0:26:45.359 just something where I don't want to go near. What 0:26:45.400 --> 0:26:47.240 about the total pad at forty three and a half 0:26:47.359 --> 0:26:47.960 anything there? 0:26:48.240 --> 0:26:50.360 Yeah, I'm inclined to play it over. I mean, we 0:26:51.000 --> 0:26:54.119 have seen that Detroit just can't cover. They don't have 0:26:54.160 --> 0:26:59.120 the person to cover anyone, and like Alan Robinson and 0:26:59.400 --> 0:27:01.760 Darnell mood are going to be open at points in 0:27:01.800 --> 0:27:04.200 that game, and Fields is a good arm. I mean, 0:27:04.240 --> 0:27:06.560 he it was the pass rush that was causing him 0:27:06.560 --> 0:27:09.560 all sorts of problems yesterday, and if they can keep 0:27:09.640 --> 0:27:12.160 him just the least little bit clean. I think he's 0:27:12.200 --> 0:27:13.919 going to be able to do some business against this 0:27:14.000 --> 0:27:17.680 Detroit secondary, which is just in tatters right now. 0:27:18.119 --> 0:27:21.720 Yeah yeah, all right. Let's get to the Jets hosting 0:27:21.720 --> 0:27:24.600 the Titans. The Titans are laying seven and a half 0:27:24.720 --> 0:27:26.480 and the totals forty six. What do you think? 0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:30.000 Oh man, it's so hard to back the Jets right now, 0:27:31.400 --> 0:27:34.040 as dysfunctional as it's beending. Yet the Titans not a 0:27:34.080 --> 0:27:36.760 team you really feel comfortable laying seven and a half with, 0:27:37.080 --> 0:27:40.320 so probably a stay away from me. How do you 0:27:40.320 --> 0:27:43.000 feel about this one? I just nothing grabs me here. 0:27:43.200 --> 0:27:46.119 That's all right. I think there's value on the Jets 0:27:46.119 --> 0:27:48.399 that I will not be taking like that. That's how 0:27:48.440 --> 0:27:51.080 I view it. And I think that realistically, when you 0:27:51.119 --> 0:27:53.480 look at these games with the Jets, you're going to 0:27:53.560 --> 0:27:57.280 say all the trends are going to suggest the Jets 0:27:57.320 --> 0:27:59.439 and everything, and I think they'll put up points like 0:27:59.520 --> 0:28:02.040 I don't know. I certainly even hate the forty six 0:28:02.600 --> 0:28:04.520 as the over under there because I do think that 0:28:04.600 --> 0:28:07.320 this is a game where you'll see what happens a 0:28:07.400 --> 0:28:10.360 little bit when the Jets aren't playing a good defense 0:28:10.359 --> 0:28:12.199 like they played the Broncos. They had the Panthers in 0:28:12.240 --> 0:28:16.240 Week one, they had the Patriots. They've played some decent defenses. 0:28:16.280 --> 0:28:19.919 Who can really you know, hone in on the fact 0:28:19.960 --> 0:28:23.400 that their line is terrible. So I think you'll probably 0:28:23.400 --> 0:28:25.720 see some offense. So I don't I don't hate the 0:28:25.760 --> 0:28:29.040 over at forty six, but realistically we also we don't 0:28:29.040 --> 0:28:31.040 know a j Brown status or anything like that. Not 0:28:31.240 --> 0:28:34.520 that that necessarily means a ton, but it's a stay 0:28:34.560 --> 0:28:36.639 away from me. Really, I think there's value on the 0:28:36.680 --> 0:28:39.280 Jets that I have no interest in taking whatsoever. And 0:28:39.360 --> 0:28:41.720 like you said, like I just I can't really back 0:28:42.080 --> 0:28:45.000 the Jets, but the Titans have seemed a little dysfunctional 0:28:45.080 --> 0:28:47.000 at times. Even yesterday in a game that I thought 0:28:47.040 --> 0:28:48.840 that they would they I mean, they wound up winning 0:28:48.840 --> 0:28:50.640 the final scores. Fine, they covered the spread. I had 0:28:50.680 --> 0:28:54.800 them with the spread, but they didn't look particularly impressive overall. Right, 0:28:54.880 --> 0:28:57.080 So I think that it's something where the Jets can 0:28:57.360 --> 0:28:59.600 maybe hang around. I think it'll go over, but I'm 0:28:59.640 --> 0:29:00.640 not betting it either way. 0:29:01.040 --> 0:29:03.720 Yeah, that sounds right, And you make a good point 0:29:03.720 --> 0:29:06.200 about the Jets having faced some really tough defenses and 0:29:06.240 --> 0:29:10.480 this is probably going to be their easiest opponent. Maybe 0:29:10.480 --> 0:29:12.360 they can move the ball a little bit more, but yeah, 0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:14.760 they were just kind of drawing dead against the Broncos 0:29:14.760 --> 0:29:16.240 in Denver yesterday. 0:29:16.080 --> 0:29:19.520 And they were and again, and I think that our 0:29:19.560 --> 0:29:22.640 guests from this past week, Alex kalo J basically it said, 0:29:22.720 --> 0:29:24.360 or maybe it was Andrew Kaylee last week at it 0:29:24.400 --> 0:29:27.640 which was basically a after this week, start taking the 0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:29.240 over on the Jets games, because I think you will 0:29:29.240 --> 0:29:31.680 see the offense is not The offensive line is terrible, 0:29:31.800 --> 0:29:34.360 but the offense is not quite as dysfunctional as it 0:29:34.480 --> 0:29:37.640 necessarily has shown, you know, given it they have we'll 0:29:37.680 --> 0:29:39.800 see Elija more obviously at the concussions, so we'll see 0:29:39.800 --> 0:29:43.280 about that. But they can move the ball like they're 0:29:43.360 --> 0:29:46.120 just they have run into some difficult defenses right now, 0:29:46.120 --> 0:29:47.959 and I think you'll see them put up some points 0:29:47.960 --> 0:29:50.560 in this game. So I do lean the over forty six, 0:29:50.760 --> 0:29:53.479 but the spread is an absolute runaway for me, because 0:29:53.720 --> 0:29:55.280 I think there's value on the Jets that I have 0:29:55.360 --> 0:29:57.920 no interest in going near. The forty nine Ers are 0:29:57.960 --> 0:30:01.000 at home here laying three and a half to the Seahawks. 0:30:01.160 --> 0:30:02.800 The total is fifteen and a half. What do you 0:30:02.800 --> 0:30:03.240 think about this? 0:30:03.240 --> 0:30:06.400 One. Pat oh Man, I'm going to have to take 0:30:06.400 --> 0:30:08.960 a longer look at this one, because right off the 0:30:09.000 --> 0:30:11.280 bat like nothing grabs me. You'd think the forty nine 0:30:11.360 --> 0:30:13.000 ers would be in kind of a good bounced back spot. 0:30:13.040 --> 0:30:15.760 But then again, you know, Seattle didn't play their best 0:30:15.800 --> 0:30:20.640 game against Minnesota. So man, it just it seems like 0:30:21.480 --> 0:30:24.040 the right line. Like I don't know who the better 0:30:24.080 --> 0:30:26.200 team is right now, So three and a half for 0:30:26.240 --> 0:30:30.480 the home team sounds about rights and probably leaning over 0:30:31.000 --> 0:30:34.760 like I think it would probably go over, But then again, 0:30:34.920 --> 0:30:39.280 I'm not entirely sure about that either. Garoppolo didn't look 0:30:39.280 --> 0:30:42.400 great against the Packers on Sunday nights. The pass rush 0:30:42.480 --> 0:30:46.000 was really getting to him, and I know Seattle. I 0:30:46.040 --> 0:30:48.480 think the thing that drives me towards the over more 0:30:48.520 --> 0:30:50.800 than anything else is I think Seattle is another one 0:30:50.800 --> 0:30:53.040 of these teams that people are going to attack all year, 0:30:53.040 --> 0:30:55.800 like their cornerbacks are not good, but they can put 0:30:55.840 --> 0:30:59.479 heat on the passer. And green Bay, which had not 0:30:59.560 --> 0:31:03.360 put an any pressure on anyone all season, was getting 0:31:03.400 --> 0:31:07.600 the Garoppolo in Sunday Sunday night, and so I think 0:31:07.600 --> 0:31:09.600 Seattle's going to maybe be able to get to him 0:31:09.680 --> 0:31:12.600 and hold up that back end a little bit, but 0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:15.640 we'll see him. I'm leaning over here. I kind of 0:31:15.640 --> 0:31:17.200 want to dig into this one a little bit more 0:31:17.240 --> 0:31:18.440 before I lock anything in. 0:31:18.960 --> 0:31:20.880 Yeah, I agree that the over is the play here, 0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:22.840 and that you made a good point like this. I 0:31:22.920 --> 0:31:24.880 did not expect the Seahawks to be able to just 0:31:24.960 --> 0:31:27.640 generally get as much pressure as they have gotten so 0:31:27.760 --> 0:31:30.320 far this year, so I could see that being something. 0:31:30.360 --> 0:31:32.120 But I do think that there's going to be points 0:31:32.160 --> 0:31:36.080 scored in this game for sure. Interesting though, Pat, I 0:31:36.160 --> 0:31:38.680 will ask you, because you basically said you don't know 0:31:38.720 --> 0:31:41.040 which one of these teams is the better team, why 0:31:41.120 --> 0:31:42.440 doesn't that drive you to take the hook? 0:31:42.440 --> 0:31:42.600 Then? 0:31:42.720 --> 0:31:44.560 If you're getting the you know, the three and a half, 0:31:44.600 --> 0:31:46.160 if you think you know, I'm not sure, why don't 0:31:46.160 --> 0:31:48.400 Why don't you just take at this point the the 0:31:48.720 --> 0:31:51.760 you know they're asking you to, they're asking you to ice. 0:31:52.440 --> 0:31:55.560 Yeah, I just don't like that half point Sometimes isn't 0:31:55.600 --> 0:31:58.320 compelling enough for me, Like, you know, oh, if it 0:31:58.360 --> 0:32:01.239 was three, i'd walk away from a hook. I'm taking it. 0:32:01.320 --> 0:32:03.720 I guess I don't feel that strongly about that extra 0:32:03.760 --> 0:32:04.280 half point. 0:32:04.680 --> 0:32:08.040 Okay, fair enough, How about the rams are hosting the Cardinals. 0:32:08.400 --> 0:32:11.000 The matchup of three and zero teams. Here, the Rams 0:32:11.040 --> 0:32:13.840 are laying six points. The total is fifty three and 0:32:13.840 --> 0:32:15.200 a half. I love, by the way that it's like 0:32:15.200 --> 0:32:18.080 the total just like fifty three, fifty four, fifty five 0:32:18.160 --> 0:32:20.480 like routinely now in the NFL. It's kind of crazy. 0:32:20.480 --> 0:32:22.480 But again, what do you think they're six points fifty 0:32:22.480 --> 0:32:23.240 three and a half total. 0:32:24.320 --> 0:32:26.320 I'm inclined to go for the Cardinals just because I 0:32:26.320 --> 0:32:28.000 think it's going to be a close game, like a 0:32:28.040 --> 0:32:30.280 really close one, and I think the Rams are maybe 0:32:30.280 --> 0:32:33.760 getting a little too much credit for albeit a very 0:32:33.760 --> 0:32:37.800 convincing win against the Buccaneers, and that's it. I think 0:32:37.800 --> 0:32:40.600 the Rams are being rewarded for beating the team that 0:32:40.880 --> 0:32:42.960 a lot of people maybe pegged as the best team 0:32:43.000 --> 0:32:47.000 in the NFL, the defending champions, who have been playing 0:32:47.040 --> 0:32:49.760 greats going into Week three. So but this one just 0:32:49.760 --> 0:32:51.400 feels like it's going to be a really good game, 0:32:51.440 --> 0:32:53.360 and six points feels like too much to me. 0:32:54.080 --> 0:32:57.640 Yeah, I agree, this strikes me at worse. The back 0:32:57.640 --> 0:33:00.960 door cover by the Cardinals like a long as Murray's healthy, 0:33:01.040 --> 0:33:04.160 they can score in three seconds if they absolutely need to, 0:33:04.280 --> 0:33:06.920 and you know, kudos to the Rams. They do look great, 0:33:07.000 --> 0:33:09.600 but you know they you can score off them, you 0:33:09.600 --> 0:33:11.480 can put up points, So I agree, do you awesome? 0:33:11.520 --> 0:33:12.840 By the way, I'll just take the over, like I 0:33:13.200 --> 0:33:16.000 get that, like the total is high, but both teams 0:33:16.040 --> 0:33:18.040 are going to put up points in this game, so 0:33:18.560 --> 0:33:21.080 I will take the over this and again it's for me, 0:33:21.200 --> 0:33:23.200 Pat And you know, again we talked about draftings. It's 0:33:23.200 --> 0:33:27.000 actually forty fifty four and a half already, so that 0:33:27.120 --> 0:33:29.800 maybe I'll be like, okay, fine, like fine, you've got me. 0:33:29.840 --> 0:33:32.320 I'll stay away from it necessarily, but at fifty three 0:33:32.320 --> 0:33:34.240 and a half, I feel okay with it. Really it's 0:33:34.280 --> 0:33:35.920 it's there's gonna be points in this game. 0:33:36.080 --> 0:33:37.440 Same, Yeah, I agree. 0:33:37.880 --> 0:33:41.680 All right, your Packers are hosting the Steelers, laying seven 0:33:41.760 --> 0:33:45.240 points here with the Packers and until forty seven and 0:33:45.240 --> 0:33:48.280 a half that the Steelers, I mean, they look terrible. 0:33:48.280 --> 0:33:50.880 They've got injuries everywhere. You know, we don't know what 0:33:50.920 --> 0:33:52.880 receivers are going to be healthy. Their offensive line is 0:33:52.920 --> 0:33:53.360 and shambles. 0:33:53.400 --> 0:33:56.000 What do you think you're Yeah, another thing, I kind 0:33:56.000 --> 0:33:58.040 of want to see the injury report for the Packers 0:33:58.040 --> 0:34:00.760 and whether Elton Jenkins is back. Although they did a 0:34:00.800 --> 0:34:04.760 pretty good job of protecting Aaron Rodgers without Jenkins, and 0:34:04.840 --> 0:34:07.360 you know, of course David Bacciari is still out. But 0:34:08.040 --> 0:34:12.160 I think the for the Packers' offensive line to hold 0:34:12.239 --> 0:34:14.560 up against two pretty good pass rushes in a row 0:34:14.640 --> 0:34:17.560 with that sort of loss of manpower up front might 0:34:17.560 --> 0:34:21.799 be difficult. But as far as an offensive line holding up, 0:34:21.840 --> 0:34:24.399 I mean, Pittsburgh can't hold up to anyone right now. 0:34:24.760 --> 0:34:27.560 And the Packers finally generated a little bit of pass 0:34:27.640 --> 0:34:30.200 rush against San Francisco on Sunday night, you have to 0:34:30.239 --> 0:34:33.520 think they're going to be getting to big Ben Hunt Sunday. 0:34:33.560 --> 0:34:37.319 So yeah, I mean, I've seen this does look like 0:34:37.400 --> 0:34:39.520 kind of a letdown spot for the Packers after that 0:34:39.680 --> 0:34:44.080 emotional Sunday night victory. I'll probably walk away from this one. 0:34:44.120 --> 0:34:46.200 But if you forced me to pick it, Dan, I 0:34:46.239 --> 0:34:49.240 would probably take the Homer pick and lay the points 0:34:49.239 --> 0:34:49.960 with the Packers. 0:34:50.200 --> 0:34:52.640 So there are a couple of things I agree. The 0:34:52.680 --> 0:34:55.600 problem is really is the letdown right like that is 0:34:55.760 --> 0:34:58.880 such an emotional victory that they had there, and especially 0:34:58.880 --> 0:35:01.680 with Rogers' history with San Francisco and everything like that, 0:35:01.719 --> 0:35:03.719 like that that is really something on a Sunday night 0:35:03.719 --> 0:35:07.240 where you're just like, this is a prime letdown spot 0:35:07.480 --> 0:35:10.760 for the Packers, but I don't really care pat again 0:35:10.920 --> 0:35:16.760 because of how terrible the Pittsburgh offense looks right now, 0:35:17.040 --> 0:35:20.839 and just like, I mean, you know what we've said. 0:35:20.880 --> 0:35:22.799 You know you said it yesterday we were talking. It 0:35:22.840 --> 0:35:24.839 was sort of like Ben. You know what Ben is doing. 0:35:24.880 --> 0:35:28.360 He's trying to survive long enough not to throw it downfield, 0:35:28.640 --> 0:35:31.680 but to find a three yard checkdown to Naji Harris, 0:35:31.920 --> 0:35:33.640 I think the offense is broken. By the way, I 0:35:33.640 --> 0:35:35.920 will say it's seven. Every single book I'm looking at 0:35:35.960 --> 0:35:38.200 except DraftKings right now is six and a half, so 0:35:38.360 --> 0:35:40.879 that I certainly feel comfortable with doing. But I will 0:35:40.920 --> 0:35:43.480 even take it laying the seven because I think that, 0:35:43.840 --> 0:35:46.440 you know, the Packers, because of the fact that you know, 0:35:46.480 --> 0:35:48.719 they they look so bad in that opening game and 0:35:48.719 --> 0:35:50.399 they're still two and one. They've got to win, They've 0:35:50.400 --> 0:35:52.600 got to keep going with this. I do think that 0:35:52.640 --> 0:35:54.279 they still are going to be good enough to come 0:35:54.280 --> 0:35:58.200 out out with you know, firing. I'm fine taking the 0:35:58.440 --> 0:36:01.080 over as well with forty seven half because I think 0:36:01.320 --> 0:36:03.239 Pittsburgh will put up enough points and I think the 0:36:03.280 --> 0:36:05.040 Packers are going to be able to score on the team, 0:36:05.080 --> 0:36:07.760 So I lean that way, but I will take the spread. 0:36:07.920 --> 0:36:10.319 How about here, Pat? This is a I love, you know, 0:36:10.360 --> 0:36:14.000 Broncos games man early in the season at home. Fascinating 0:36:14.040 --> 0:36:16.760 to see the Broncos three to zero, laying a point 0:36:16.800 --> 0:36:19.960 and a half to the Ravens at home. The total 0:36:20.040 --> 0:36:21.440 is forty four and a half. What do you think 0:36:21.440 --> 0:36:21.960 of this one? 0:36:23.360 --> 0:36:28.840 Like, I think the Broncos are the play. I'm still 0:36:29.800 --> 0:36:32.000 not quite on board with the Ravens. We saw them 0:36:32.040 --> 0:36:37.120 just barely escape with a win against Detroit. We saw 0:36:37.160 --> 0:36:42.719 them lose opening night to the Raiders. Like those injuries, 0:36:42.760 --> 0:36:47.720 the JK. Dobbins injury and the forgetting Marcus Peters injury, 0:36:47.800 --> 0:36:50.440 like those were so big, Like the Marcus Peters injury 0:36:50.560 --> 0:36:53.719 was really a blow to that defense. And yeah, I 0:36:53.760 --> 0:36:56.239 just don't think this is quite the same Ravens team 0:36:56.239 --> 0:36:58.239 we've seen in the past. And I do believe in 0:36:58.280 --> 0:37:01.759 this Denver defense. I mean this is a very airtight defense. 0:37:03.600 --> 0:37:06.040 Just they can really cover in the back end. When 0:37:06.040 --> 0:37:08.960 you've got like three or four good cornerbacks, I mean 0:37:08.960 --> 0:37:11.359 that's just such a plus, Like you know that you're 0:37:11.400 --> 0:37:15.080 going to be, you know, not getting repeatedly burned in 0:37:15.120 --> 0:37:17.359 the passing game, and I don't think the Ravens really 0:37:17.400 --> 0:37:21.839 have the firepower to do that to anyone anyway. So yeah, 0:37:21.880 --> 0:37:23.919 I just like, I think this looks like a really 0:37:23.960 --> 0:37:28.680 good position for Denver, even though they're sort of riding high. 0:37:28.760 --> 0:37:32.440 You know, Baltimore really got grabbed by the lapels and 0:37:32.480 --> 0:37:35.080 shaken a little bit by almost losing to the Lions, 0:37:35.080 --> 0:37:38.000 so I expect them to be on their toes for 0:37:38.040 --> 0:37:39.320 this one. But I just don't know if they're a 0:37:39.320 --> 0:37:43.560 good enough team to like overcome that Denver defense, and 0:37:43.600 --> 0:37:46.680 you know, Denver's got a pretty functional ball control offense. 0:37:47.560 --> 0:37:49.320 I just think Denver might be the better team. 0:37:50.320 --> 0:37:52.839 I think you're right, and it's weird to feel that way, 0:37:53.440 --> 0:37:57.400 but especially also again, Denver at home early on in 0:37:57.440 --> 0:38:00.160 the season is just a spot where you want to 0:38:00.200 --> 0:38:04.560 back the Broncos because again, the thin air there. Eventually 0:38:04.640 --> 0:38:07.920 teams are conditioned enough where it doesn't have quite as 0:38:08.000 --> 0:38:11.200 much of an impact, but throughout September, you know, early 0:38:11.280 --> 0:38:13.919 on in the season, it's kind of where you want 0:38:13.920 --> 0:38:18.000 to be here with the Broncos because again, they're kind 0:38:18.000 --> 0:38:19.320 of used to it, and I mean, we'll be in 0:38:19.400 --> 0:38:22.080 October technically when the game starts, but it is something 0:38:22.120 --> 0:38:25.680 where first four weeks of the season, the Broncos at home, 0:38:25.880 --> 0:38:27.600 they have a great record against the spread. There is 0:38:27.640 --> 0:38:30.160 a reason for that. So I agree with you. I 0:38:30.280 --> 0:38:32.440 lean the Broncos. And it feels weird to sort of 0:38:32.440 --> 0:38:34.040 be saying that at this point, but I agree with you. 0:38:34.080 --> 0:38:36.640 I think they're the right side. How about the Bucks 0:38:37.160 --> 0:38:40.880 visiting the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The spread is six, 0:38:41.120 --> 0:38:43.800 so the Patriots are getting six, the totals forty nine. 0:38:45.280 --> 0:38:47.320 I don't think I could take anyone but the Bucks 0:38:47.480 --> 0:38:51.880 in this game now, with like I don't know, we 0:38:51.920 --> 0:38:54.560 thought mac Jones was maybe going to be an efficient 0:38:54.680 --> 0:38:57.399 game manager, but he's really not been that at all. 0:38:57.440 --> 0:39:01.360 And you know, now no no James White for the 0:39:01.400 --> 0:39:06.440 Panther or the Patriots. That takes away dimension of their offense, 0:39:06.440 --> 0:39:10.000 and kind of an important one at that. So it's 0:39:10.000 --> 0:39:12.960 hard to see how the Bucks don't win this convincingly. 0:39:14.000 --> 0:39:17.040 I mean, it's a great matchup, and you know, like 0:39:17.320 --> 0:39:21.279 we can give Bill Belichick all the credits and he's 0:39:21.480 --> 0:39:25.239 a fantastic coach, but like he likes to take away 0:39:25.280 --> 0:39:28.399 one thing, what are you taking away from the Buccaneers. 0:39:28.440 --> 0:39:31.880 Who are you taking away? You wait, Godwin Evans, Like, 0:39:32.560 --> 0:39:36.840 I just I don't know. I can't see the Patriots 0:39:36.840 --> 0:39:37.840 hanging in this one. 0:39:38.120 --> 0:39:41.080 Nope, there's no way it's under touchdown. I will take 0:39:41.080 --> 0:39:42.680 it any day of the week. Like, I feel very 0:39:42.680 --> 0:39:48.319 confident the Patriots are in my and we're overrated, you know, realistically, 0:39:48.400 --> 0:39:50.560 like the idea that Mac Jones could step in there, 0:39:50.560 --> 0:39:52.600 and again, they don't have anybody explode, Like, they don't 0:39:52.600 --> 0:39:55.959 have explosive playmakers anyway, right, I mean, you know, it's 0:39:56.040 --> 0:39:59.400 just they don't have the personnel necessarily regardless, but Jones 0:39:59.440 --> 0:40:02.000 is you know, they're not good enough for him to 0:40:02.040 --> 0:40:05.720 game manage their way to victories, especially against Tom Brady 0:40:05.880 --> 0:40:08.840 returning to New England off a loss. Like everything just 0:40:08.880 --> 0:40:09.960 screams take the bucks here. 0:40:10.040 --> 0:40:12.399 Yeah, And it's too bad, because I mean, how can 0:40:12.440 --> 0:40:14.680 this game not be great theater? Like can it be 0:40:14.760 --> 0:40:17.480 a great theater if it's not a close game? But 0:40:18.000 --> 0:40:19.680 I just can't wait to see what it looks like. 0:40:19.719 --> 0:40:23.320 But I just cannot conceive of the Patriots like winning 0:40:23.320 --> 0:40:25.600 this one or making it a really really tight game. 0:40:25.920 --> 0:40:29.400 And ps, it's essentially going to be unless I completely 0:40:29.480 --> 0:40:32.960 misread the situation living here in New England, having basically 0:40:33.000 --> 0:40:36.440 all my friends, my wife's entire family being Pats fans. 0:40:36.840 --> 0:40:40.160 They their loyalty is to Brady, and at this point 0:40:40.280 --> 0:40:43.120 over the Patriots like they were a little mad some 0:40:43.200 --> 0:40:45.000 of them when he left, they were done. But then 0:40:45.040 --> 0:40:48.879 watching him succeed now it's watching his personality come out 0:40:48.920 --> 0:40:52.400 here with everything. It seems like they fully come on 0:40:52.480 --> 0:40:55.279 board with Brady and are like whatever. Pats like, we 0:40:55.360 --> 0:40:57.879 can live with whatever. So it's probably it's not even 0:40:57.880 --> 0:40:59.719 gonna be a home build a bandage really for New 0:40:59.760 --> 0:41:03.640 England from what I can tell, so realistically, under field 0:41:03.640 --> 0:41:06.720 goal forget it. I'll take it all day long. Let's 0:41:06.760 --> 0:41:09.800 get to the last game, Monday Night Football, the Chargers 0:41:09.840 --> 0:41:13.160 at home taking on the undefeated Raiders. The Chargers are 0:41:13.160 --> 0:41:15.800 three point favorites. The total is fifty two and a half. 0:41:16.040 --> 0:41:16.759 What do you think here? 0:41:18.040 --> 0:41:21.240 It's a fun, really fun way to wrap up the week. 0:41:22.080 --> 0:41:24.680 Leaning Chargers in this one. I guess I just believe 0:41:24.760 --> 0:41:27.600 in them a little bit more. I think that run 0:41:27.640 --> 0:41:29.719 defense is a bit of an achilles. I don't know 0:41:29.840 --> 0:41:33.680 if the Raiders can capitalize on that. May or May 0:41:33.680 --> 0:41:36.120 not have Josh Shacobs back. We're probably not even going 0:41:36.200 --> 0:41:38.440 to know when Sunday's games kick off, so that's going 0:41:38.480 --> 0:41:43.520 to be confusing for fantasy people for sure. But just 0:41:43.600 --> 0:41:46.520 the way the Chargers handle the Chiefs this past week, 0:41:47.320 --> 0:41:49.960 I worried about kind of a sophomore slump for Justin Herbert. 0:41:49.960 --> 0:41:53.719 We're not getting that at all. He looks terrific. Mike 0:41:53.800 --> 0:41:56.600 Williams has taken another step up, like this passing game 0:41:56.680 --> 0:41:59.160 is now one of the better passing games in the league, 0:41:59.160 --> 0:42:03.600 no question. And you know, I just don't as good 0:42:03.600 --> 0:42:06.040 as Car has been, and he is hanging up some 0:42:06.120 --> 0:42:10.360 crazy yardage totals so far. I just don't think the 0:42:10.440 --> 0:42:12.880 Raiders can go toe to toe with the Chargers on 0:42:12.920 --> 0:42:13.279 the road. 0:42:15.160 --> 0:42:18.239 Yeah. I struggle with this, man. I mean, and I 0:42:18.360 --> 0:42:23.120 was on the Dolphins this weekend getting four or getting 0:42:23.160 --> 0:42:26.200 three and a half and they ultimately wound up covering. 0:42:26.760 --> 0:42:29.840 But I kind of expected the Raiders, especially with Car 0:42:30.120 --> 0:42:33.399 having the ankle injury, to be fla. You know, they 0:42:33.440 --> 0:42:35.359 came out a little flat, but they got there. All 0:42:35.400 --> 0:42:38.440 three of those receivers are getting it done. But with 0:42:38.600 --> 0:42:41.640 that said, I agree with you like the run defense 0:42:41.680 --> 0:42:44.120 we talked about it's fine, and we were joking about 0:42:44.160 --> 0:42:46.920 fantasy about Peyton Barber is gonna have like forty carries 0:42:47.000 --> 0:42:49.759 or whatever, you know this week coming in because that's 0:42:49.760 --> 0:42:52.480 just what they do. But I agree, like, I feel 0:42:52.480 --> 0:42:55.480 like the charters at home in this game are the 0:42:55.560 --> 0:42:58.000 right side for it. Do you have any thoughts on 0:42:58.040 --> 0:43:01.719 the total? Which was where I lost it? Hold on 0:43:01.880 --> 0:43:03.080 it was fifty two and a half. 0:43:04.760 --> 0:43:06.600 I kind of think there are gonna be points. I 0:43:06.600 --> 0:43:08.600 think it's gonna go over. I mean, maybe I'm not 0:43:08.640 --> 0:43:12.520 giving the Raiders defense enough credit. You know. Max Crosby 0:43:12.560 --> 0:43:16.920 has suddenly morphed into young JJ Watt basically where he 0:43:17.040 --> 0:43:21.280 just takes over games by himself. But I just feel 0:43:21.320 --> 0:43:23.279 like these teams are gonna run up and down the 0:43:23.280 --> 0:43:26.680 field a little bit. It has that sort of a feeling, 0:43:26.760 --> 0:43:29.080 So I'm gonna probably play something on the over. 0:43:29.520 --> 0:43:32.280 I agree, it's you know, I hate taking the overs 0:43:32.320 --> 0:43:35.360 on these totals, man, they're so high, But it is 0:43:35.400 --> 0:43:37.960 the right side, you know, because again, you know the books, 0:43:38.160 --> 0:43:40.120 you know, they know the public. Because it's so much 0:43:40.120 --> 0:43:42.000 more fun to root force something than it is to 0:43:42.080 --> 0:43:45.160 root against something. So all these lines are inflated, and 0:43:45.239 --> 0:43:47.080 I just feel like it doesn't matter at this point. 0:43:47.160 --> 0:43:51.160 Yeah, and it's two passing teams, I think, yeah, especially 0:43:51.160 --> 0:43:53.400 if there's no Jacobs. I think these are two teams 0:43:53.440 --> 0:43:55.080 that have to move the ball through the air and 0:43:55.080 --> 0:43:57.839 it just sets up like an over game. Yeah. 0:43:57.960 --> 0:43:59.719 I agree with you. I agree with you, So take 0:43:59.719 --> 0:44:01.480 an hour if you like it. All right, that's going 0:44:01.520 --> 0:44:03.000 to do it. Pat, Thank you so much for joining me. 0:44:03.040 --> 0:44:05.160 By the way, Pat, you know who is a new 0:44:05.480 --> 0:44:08.160 full time edition here to our Fantas Bros and Betting 0:44:08.200 --> 0:44:11.400 Pros team. He's going to be doing a player props 0:44:11.560 --> 0:44:13.960 Pat and I both are fantasy rankers, as I'm sure 0:44:13.960 --> 0:44:17.000 most people listening to this no, so we generally have 0:44:17.080 --> 0:44:20.160 a good sense of player props in the market, and 0:44:20.200 --> 0:44:23.040 that is a market that you can take advantage of, 0:44:23.080 --> 0:44:24.840 generally speaking. So I'm going to be doing a weekly 0:44:24.880 --> 0:44:27.760 player props video. Pat's going to be doing a weekly 0:44:27.920 --> 0:44:31.239 article on some favorite player props that he likes over 0:44:31.239 --> 0:44:33.799 here at Bettingpros dot com, So make sure to check 0:44:33.840 --> 0:44:36.560 that out. Pat, again, really appreciate you joining me. You 0:44:36.560 --> 0:44:38.359 can find pass work at Fantas Bros. And Betting Pros. 0:44:38.400 --> 0:44:39.960 I usually say, where can we find more of your work? 0:44:39.960 --> 0:44:41.600 Everybody knows at this point, but you can follow him 0:44:41.600 --> 0:44:45.360 on Twitter at fits underscore FF. Thank you for joining us. Everybody, 0:44:45.480 --> 0:44:47.040 we'll talk to again. We'll be back later in the week. 0:44:47.080 --> 0:44:49.319 You're talking about some of our best bets for week four.