Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. Week three
Speaker 1: is almost over. It is time to look ahead at
Speaker 1: the lines for week four. There are some intriguing things
Speaker 1: we're gonna want to talk about here. To do it
Speaker 1: with me is Pat fitz Morris. You can find him
Speaker 1: on Twitter at fits underscore ff. He is a senior
Speaker 1: editor here at Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros. Pat. Thank
Speaker 1: you for joining me this morning. How you doing great? Dan?
Speaker 2: Week four looks pretty fun. I can't wait to talk
Speaker 2: about it.
Speaker 1: The Thursday night game gets us off on a really
Speaker 1: disgusting start, but you know, I guess it'll get better, right.
Speaker 2: Yes, it does get a lot better.
Speaker 1: But even the worst football game is the best football game,
Speaker 1: as we saw sort of, even with the Panthers in
Speaker 1: the town. So let's get into all of it here
Speaker 1: for week four. Before we do, let me tell you
Speaker 1: about the latest offer from bet MGM. New customers can
Speaker 1: bet five dollars and win one hundred dollars in free
Speaker 1: bets if they bet on an NFL football game and
Speaker 1: either team scores a touchdown, so you get that you
Speaker 1: have five dollars. You win one hundred dollars in free
Speaker 1: bets if either team scores a touchdown. That is free
Speaker 1: money that is going to happen in pretty much whatever
Speaker 1: bet you take. Use the code Juice one hundred. I
Speaker 1: have mentioned it the Daily Juice podcast hosted by Matt
Speaker 1: Parlt That's where that promo code comes from. Again, Juice
Speaker 1: one hundred. New customers bet five dollars in any NFL game,
Speaker 1: win one hundred dollars in free bets if either team
Speaker 1: scores a touchdown. Also, it is September twenty seven today.
Speaker 1: That means it is almost October and that is when
Speaker 1: the giveaway for the two a tongue of I lois
Speaker 1: signed Jersey ends. All you got to do to be
Speaker 1: entered is lead review for the show on Apple Podcasts
Speaker 1: or cash Box and then go to be Bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com sorry slash review. That is it three times the entries.
Speaker 1: By the way, if you subscribe to the Betting Pros
Speaker 1: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. And again,
Speaker 1: every Sunday morning, we do a live stream me and
Speaker 1: Matt Pearl from eleven to twelve. We talked about our
Speaker 1: best bets, we talked about props. It's a lot of fun.
Speaker 1: So again, leave a review for the show on Apple
Speaker 1: podcast or castbox and go to Bettingpros dot com slash
Speaker 1: review and subscribe to our YouTube channel three times the entries.
Speaker 1: All right, Pat, let's get into it with the game
Speaker 1: that everybody wants to see. It is the Jaguars visiting
Speaker 1: the Bengals. You told me the Bengals were going to
Speaker 1: be a seven and a half point favorite over anyone
Speaker 1: this year. I might have added you at the beginning.
Speaker 1: But the consensus line is seven and a half. There
Speaker 1: are some sevens out there. Again at bettingpros dot com
Speaker 1: we have consensus lines. Where have books from all over.
Speaker 1: I'm DraftKings, Pat, You've talked how you do DraftKings. It's
Speaker 1: seven there, but against consensus line seven and a half.
Speaker 1: The total consensus total forty five and a half. So
Speaker 1: just what's your reaction to that line?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that hook is going to be all important. Dan,
Speaker 2: I think I'm inclined to take the points if I
Speaker 2: can get Jacksonville, Like I know, that had to be
Speaker 2: a big game for the Bengals against their longtime rivals Dealers.
Speaker 2: To go in in Pittsburgh and win that game, you
Speaker 2: just wonder if they might be looking a little bit
Speaker 2: past the next game on the schedule, or weren't maybe
Speaker 2: thinking that much about that one. So, you know, big
Speaker 2: game for the Jaguars. They were actually scrappy er this
Speaker 2: past week. Things got away from them against the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: They just ran into too much firepower worth with Kyler
Speaker 2: Murray in that offense. But yeah, seven and a half,
Speaker 2: Just laying seven or seven and a half with the
Speaker 2: Bengals just doesn't feel good. And the seven and a
Speaker 2: half is that's just I can't quite get over that
Speaker 2: big obstacle.
Speaker 1: So I make this analogy I probably last time. It's
Speaker 1: one of my favorite ones. I'm a big movie person.
Speaker 1: Random movie scenes pop into my head when I'm thinking
Speaker 1: about something, and I think of the Princess Bride, and
Speaker 1: I think of the Zeni doing the wine glasses and
Speaker 1: just looking at this game and the spread of being
Speaker 1: like I clearly cannot choose the wine in front of you,
Speaker 1: and I clearly can choose the wine in front of me,
Speaker 1: because that's what this is, and it strikes me. Pat
Speaker 1: is like, I'm gonna look at every Jaguars spread and
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be like, oh, there's value on the Jags
Speaker 1: right now. Like there is very clearly value on a
Speaker 1: seven and a half point spread on the Bengals coming
Speaker 1: off a giant win here against the Steelers. It's a
Speaker 1: prime letdown spot the Jaguars, right they fought, they fought.
Speaker 1: I mean they got Look, they got a one hundred
Speaker 1: and nine yard kickoff return. That's not gonna happen every time.
Speaker 1: But there were moments where you said, oh my god,
Speaker 1: they're going to beat the Cardinals at this point. But
Speaker 1: it reminds me of the Jets the other year where
Speaker 1: you were just like, I can't I know there's value
Speaker 1: on the Jets, but I can't take the Jets right
Speaker 1: now because there's such a dumpster fire. So I think
Speaker 1: in the end it's just gonna be something I stay
Speaker 1: away from. Padded, it's not it's not something I can
Speaker 1: go near. The total also forty five and a half
Speaker 1: forty six. Actually it's between forty five vanduels forty five
Speaker 1: bet MGM is forty six, so forty five and a half.
Speaker 1: I don't really see value on the total.
Speaker 2: Do you No, I don't either way. That seems like
Speaker 2: something I'm just gonna lay off entirely. I will make
Speaker 2: the case for Jacksonville, Dana. I do think they are
Speaker 2: a livelier bad team than either the Texans or the
Speaker 2: Jets right now. Jets might have a lively defense, but
Speaker 2: their offense is pretty much non functional. There were moments
Speaker 2: of functionality with Trevor Lawrence and that offense yesterday, and
Speaker 2: I think he's going to turn the corner pretty abruptly
Speaker 2: at some point and at least be capable. I mean,
Speaker 2: he's just making bad decisions right now, and I think
Speaker 2: he's going to pick it up pretty quickly. He's made
Speaker 2: more bad decisions in three games than we saw him
Speaker 2: making three years at Clemson, So you know, I think
Speaker 2: that's going to turn around. The defense isn't totally awful,
Speaker 2: so I think they're a little scrappier than some of
Speaker 2: these other just complete dumpster fire teams.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty one Jaguars moments of functionality. Let's go to
Speaker 1: the Texans visiting the Bills seventeen point favorite. No big
Speaker 1: deal here, the totals forty eight. What do you do,
Speaker 1: pat when you have a spread this large. I mean,
Speaker 1: is there any value on taking the dog at this
Speaker 1: point given where we are?
Speaker 2: Yeah, just like I don't like betting Alabama Vanderbilt games
Speaker 2: in college, Dan, I really shy away from a line
Speaker 2: like this. I mean, there's just so much wiggle room
Speaker 2: for the underdog here, and yet I can't take the
Speaker 2: underdog because Buffalo really does look like one of the
Speaker 2: three or four best teams in the league. Their defense
Speaker 2: now matches their offense, if not more so. And you know,
Speaker 2: even though the Texans were fairly scrappy against Carolina, another
Speaker 2: good defense last week, and even though they've had we'll
Speaker 2: have had ten days to prepare for this one, I
Speaker 2: can't take them with the points. I'm this is a
Speaker 2: stay away.
Speaker 1: There's no way, there's no way you can take the
Speaker 1: Texans in this game, just because again the Bills. You're right, Pat,
Speaker 1: Like I realized that Josh Allen in the first couple
Speaker 1: of games, he looked great on Sunday, but I realized
Speaker 1: that there was some like, oh, this looks a little
Speaker 1: like the old Josh Allen. Who knows what we're gonna see?
Speaker 1: Their defense has been so incredibly impressive to me, and
Speaker 1: I know they've had a great pass defense, but you
Speaker 1: know they're run to you just all over the place.
Speaker 1: They look really, really good. There's no way I can
Speaker 1: take it. But I also like, like, I can't take
Speaker 1: a team lank seventeen points. I just I can't do that,
Speaker 1: you know, no matter what fluky things can happen to
Speaker 1: allow them to cover. And the total. Again, also one
Speaker 1: of these things where I assume you agree is just like
Speaker 1: I don't really know how to feel about like watching
Speaker 1: this game, I have no idea what the total could be.
Speaker 1: I mean, the Bills could get there by themselves realistically
Speaker 1: or right. But if they don't, who knows what it's
Speaker 1: going to be. So that is a stay away for me,
Speaker 1: at least on that side. Wuld agree with that.
Speaker 2: On the total, I do because if it does play
Speaker 2: out as they expect and you know, the Texans, I
Speaker 2: think they're expected point total based on the line is
Speaker 2: something like fifteen and a half points, And if it
Speaker 2: does get out of hand, you could see the Bills
Speaker 2: taking the arrow out of the ball and just giving
Speaker 2: it to Zach Moss and Devin Singletary a lot in
Speaker 2: the second half, And you know, I could see the
Speaker 2: Bill going over by themselves, or I could see this
Speaker 2: just being a really dead second half where we see
Speaker 2: seven or ten points scored after intermission.
Speaker 1: All right, Saints are at home length and they will
Speaker 1: be at home for this game. Right, I read they're
Speaker 1: back to Nordy, I think so. I think they were cleared,
Speaker 1: So I think they're home and they will be laying
Speaker 1: eight to the zero to three Giants a low total
Speaker 1: here forty three and a half. What do you think?
Speaker 2: I always kind of like taking the teams dand coming
Speaker 2: off really disappointing victories against the fat and happy teams
Speaker 2: coming off a win. At least if the team coming
Speaker 2: off the disappointed victory is good enough to do something
Speaker 2: about it, that's the open question with the Giants. I
Speaker 2: don't know if they're good enough to do anything about it.
Speaker 2: But like when teams are a little bit embarrassed, and
Speaker 2: I think you're embarrassed losing a home game to the Falcons. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think they're going to come out a little a
Speaker 2: little angry at this one. So I'm inclined to take
Speaker 2: the points here. I kind of like the Giants.
Speaker 1: Does the fact, like all the injury that they have
Speaker 1: on offense, I realize when you're doing you know, the
Speaker 1: most important things when you're looking at the line really
Speaker 1: are like offensive line injuries and everything like that. But that,
Speaker 1: I mean, they're probably not gonna have Startling Sheppard. They're
Speaker 1: probably not going to have you know, Darius Slayton in
Speaker 1: this game. Sakuon look good. Yesterday we talked about so
Speaker 1: maybe the offense opens up a little bit. Does that
Speaker 1: matter to you whatsoever their health or you just think
Speaker 1: there's value.
Speaker 2: Regarding that much because they get Evan ingram back. I
Speaker 2: actually think Colin Johnson. I was surprised that Jacks released him,
Speaker 2: Like he's a decent fill in player and you know,
Speaker 2: had a couple of catches for them yesterday. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I just kind of like them, and nothing about that
Speaker 2: Saints offense has really impressed me. They've done a great
Speaker 2: job taking short fields, yes, and punching it in on
Speaker 2: short fields so far. But like we haven't seen eighty
Speaker 2: yards seventy yards sustained drives from Jamis yet, you know,
Speaker 2: I don't know if they can get that from him consistently,
Speaker 2: Like that's always been Jamis's thing. He'll he'll zip it
Speaker 2: down in a couple of plays sometimes but sometimes when
Speaker 2: you ask Jameis to go eighty or ninety yards, you're
Speaker 2: going to get that turnover first before you get points.
Speaker 1: So do you think there's any chance that this gets
Speaker 1: down to a touchdown by the time we get to Sunday? Like,
Speaker 1: is there any value if you like the dog right
Speaker 1: now taking it now? Or do you think that it's
Speaker 1: probably going to end up here at eight?
Speaker 2: I think it'll probably end up at eight. I don't
Speaker 2: think it gets bet down just because I know I
Speaker 2: would think the Saints are the more public team here. Sure,
Speaker 2: so yeah, I don't necessarily I don't know. I wouldn't
Speaker 2: be opposed to pouncing on it now, but I don't
Speaker 2: think it's urgent. I don't think that line's going to
Speaker 2: be driven way down.
Speaker 1: It strikes me as a very sharp versus public type
Speaker 1: of game, right, I think, like right, the number of
Speaker 1: bets is going to be heavily weighted to the Saints.
Speaker 1: The amount of money is probably going to be pretty
Speaker 1: much fifty to fifty in this game. But if there
Speaker 1: is a side to take care, I agree with you
Speaker 1: because I think the Saints are I think ideally you
Speaker 1: know that the Saints right now, do not want Winston
Speaker 1: throwing out up like crazy. We talked about a little
Speaker 1: bit yesterday and the Fantasy Bros. Podcast that they want
Speaker 1: to be conservative if they can, which I think is
Speaker 1: going to bleed the clock. I mean, realistically, Pat, even
Speaker 1: though it's a low total, I think there's probably value
Speaker 1: on the under. I don't think I'll bet it on
Speaker 1: the forty three and a half because it's such a
Speaker 1: low total, but it strikes me as a game where,
Speaker 1: you know, similar to the Falcons Giants game yesterday, which
Speaker 1: I think hit thirty one right seventeen fourteen strikes me
Speaker 1: as kind of a slow moving defensive game where the
Speaker 1: clock's just going to kind of run a little bit here,
Speaker 1: And I could see value on the under, but I'm
Speaker 1: not betting it because I just it's right under in it.
Speaker 1: Other than the Jets Broncos, where I felt very confident
Speaker 1: in the under in that game, I just don't think
Speaker 1: there's a lot of you know, you can't feel good
Speaker 1: about betting any under in the NFL pretty much.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I'm kind of with you there, Dan, I
Speaker 2: could see that sort of game developing, But I could
Speaker 2: also see with a Daniel Jones versus Jameis Winston game
Speaker 2: turnovers and short fields which can pile up points in
Speaker 2: a hurry. So it's a game that could kind of
Speaker 2: go one of two ways with that total, and I
Speaker 2: just don't want to try to guess which way it's
Speaker 2: going to go.
Speaker 1: That's an outstanding point. Actually, there could be a lot
Speaker 1: of short fields in that game, so I would say way.
Speaker 1: But you know, it does strike me as absentely that
Speaker 1: neither team is going to pile up the points. Let's
Speaker 1: go to the Eagles at home getting six from the
Speaker 1: one and two Chiefs, which is a little bizarre. The
Speaker 1: total is fifty five. Now, we are recording this on Monday,
Speaker 1: early on during the day. We have not seen the
Speaker 1: Eagles play yet tonight. There could be injuries. This line
Speaker 1: certainly could move depending on what happens. But just looking
Speaker 1: at it right now, what do you think here? The
Speaker 1: Eagles getting six at home, total of fifty five?
Speaker 2: Oh, man, Dan, I think the last time I won
Speaker 2: a bet on the Chiefs, like taking them with a spread,
Speaker 2: like either Alex Smith was quarterback, maybe it was Todd Blackledge.
Speaker 2: I can't remember. It's been a long time. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I just like I hate the Chiefs giving away that
Speaker 2: sort of heavy total against you know, a capable team
Speaker 2: on the road. I really like the Eagles in this one.
Speaker 2: I just the Chiefs don't seem quite all there the
Speaker 2: formula they're using right now, which you know Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 2: wins the games. Just try to maybe bend but not
Speaker 2: break as the defense force a couple of turnovers. Like
Speaker 2: it's this defense is not especially good, Like they are
Speaker 2: very turnover dependent, and if they don't get those turnovers,
Speaker 2: you can move the ball on them. And you know,
Speaker 2: plus we've got a live quarterback on the other side
Speaker 2: with Jalen Hurts who's gonna make plays. It's gonna be
Speaker 2: a fun game. But I would absolutely take the Eagles
Speaker 2: in this. I don't want to lay the points with
Speaker 2: the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no way you can take the Chiefs, I think.
Speaker 1: And also, by the way, if you do like the
Speaker 1: Chiefs at all, like you don't need to worry about
Speaker 1: like it's not getting at seven unless something crazy happens
Speaker 1: tonight obviously or something like like Hurts goes down or something.
Speaker 1: But it's not getting to seven because this is what
Speaker 1: I mean, everybody, it's that spread against starters stuck at
Speaker 1: six six and a half all week because you knew
Speaker 1: exactly what's going on. The Chiefs just don't cover. But
Speaker 1: I agree with you, Pat, Like the biggest thing that
Speaker 1: sticks out to me right now about the Chiefs is
Speaker 1: that defense, which again last year was was fine, you know,
Speaker 1: but this year it's really just a you know, they're
Speaker 1: going to give up a ton of yards. Maybe they
Speaker 1: can keep you out of the end zone. For the
Speaker 1: most part, it's bad. It's a bad defense right now,
Speaker 1: and it's really hard to feel confident at all against
Speaker 1: a team that doesn't cover the spread on its best
Speaker 1: day anyway, right Like, that's just not what they do.
Speaker 1: They win games, but they don't. So I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I like the Eagles here go ahead.
Speaker 2: Sorry, no, I was just going to add one more
Speaker 2: thing that with Andy Reid hospitalized after that last game,
Speaker 2: it's not going to be a normal work week for
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, which is another thing to factor and I think.
Speaker 1: I think that's a great call there as well. So
Speaker 1: again we'll see what happens tonight, but I do lean Eagles.
Speaker 1: Washington is visiting Atlanta. The Falcons are favored here by
Speaker 1: a point which I don't know why it struck me
Speaker 1: as a little strange, but maybe not. I'll be interested
Speaker 1: to hear you and the totals forty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one?
Speaker 2: Sounds like we're thinking the same thing, that this is
Speaker 2: probably a good spot for Washington. I guess just fundamentally,
Speaker 2: my opinion of Washington has not changed that much, even
Speaker 2: though I've kind of been disappointed with their results these
Speaker 2: first three weeks. Like I think that defense is better
Speaker 2: than it's played, and you know, I just think this
Speaker 2: shapes up as a pretty good team versus a pretty
Speaker 2: bad team, and you know, I'm willing to take the
Speaker 2: road team here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's surprising to me, Like I assumed Washington would
Speaker 1: be fair. I get that their defense has been somewhat disappointing.
Speaker 1: I understand that, but I mean, playing the Bill I
Speaker 1: think really yesterday what we saw, Pat is we saw
Speaker 1: a really really good Bills team, like just kind of
Speaker 1: stick it to them, Like I don't blame them nearly
Speaker 1: as much as I credit the Bills in that game.
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's crazy to me. Actually, I really In fact,
Speaker 1: I'm going to fire on it probably in the middle
Speaker 1: of this podcast. No, No, offense too. I like to
Speaker 1: do that bad in the middle of podcasts where I
Speaker 1: see something be like, okay, yeah, I would. I mean again,
Speaker 1: it's you know, whether a team is favored by one
Speaker 1: or laying one Like It's not a huge difference obviously,
Speaker 1: so I don't think you have to rush to do
Speaker 1: it or anything like that. But the wrong team is
Speaker 1: favored in this matchup in my opinion, Cowboys laying four
Speaker 1: and a half to the Panthers with the total of fifty.
Speaker 1: Once again, we have not seen the Cowboys yet play tonight,
Speaker 1: so maybe something happens. Four and a half is in
Speaker 1: that dead zone here for a team we don't know.
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey's status less than a grade one hamstring straight
Speaker 1: is what we were hearing. But I still wouldn't expect
Speaker 1: them to necessarily play even with the ten days. They
Speaker 1: just made a trade right before we did, to trade
Speaker 1: Dan Arnold and bolster their cornerback in it. So what
Speaker 1: do you think here, Cowboys laying four and a half
Speaker 1: at home coming off a short week Panthers off the minibi.
Speaker 2: As much as I respect the Panthers defense and think
Speaker 2: that is a very legitimate unit this year, I think
Speaker 2: I like the Cowboys a little bit here against the
Speaker 2: depleted You know, I am going to make the leap
Speaker 2: of faith and assume that Christian McCaffrey is not going
Speaker 2: to play in this one. So I think they are
Speaker 2: just gonna have a little too much firepower for the Panthers.
Speaker 2: As good as that defense is, I don't know if
Speaker 2: they can completely hold down the Dallas offense. And you know,
Speaker 2: I just I think at home, the Cowboys should probably
Speaker 2: get this done.
Speaker 1: Interesting, I think I come on the other side, pat
Speaker 1: and again, I don't think that this is something where
Speaker 1: you have to bet it either way, right because it's
Speaker 1: in that dead zone. It's not like it's getting a three.
Speaker 1: It's not like it's getting a seven. It's four and
Speaker 1: a half. You're fine either way. But you know, to me,
Speaker 1: I mean, look, kudos to the Cowboys for winning that
Speaker 1: game against the Chargers last week, where I like, I
Speaker 1: was on the Chargers getting three or laying three in
Speaker 1: that game. Sorry, so kudos to them, But you know
Speaker 1: their offensive line is, you know, so you know, just
Speaker 1: you know, well, Collins obviously down. It's fine. It hasn't
Speaker 1: played quite as well as sort of I expected. They
Speaker 1: have injuries on defense. I feel like either way, the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: I don't want to say this the wrong way. I
Speaker 1: don't know if they have the mentality to go out
Speaker 1: there and win a game by two touchdowns at this point,
Speaker 1: like they just seem like the type of team that
Speaker 1: will let you hang around. And even without Christian McCaffrey,
Speaker 1: the Panthers don't look like world beaters certainly there, but
Speaker 1: Juba Hubbard is able to get it done and out.
Speaker 1: DJ Moore is a star. Robbie Anderson is still there.
Speaker 1: I don't know what he's doing exactly, but they have
Speaker 1: enough I think where they can keep it close. So
Speaker 1: I think if I'm getting overfield goal in this game, again,
Speaker 1: not having seen what happens tonight, I'm willing to kind
Speaker 1: of ride with the Panthers in this one. Do you
Speaker 1: like the total back, because I mean, I think you
Speaker 1: think the Cowboys are gonna score. It's fifty, so it's
Speaker 1: a high total, But do you have any value there
Speaker 1: with that one?
Speaker 2: I'm inclined to go over on this one. I don't
Speaker 2: think there's gonna be just enough. And boy, I mean
Speaker 2: that's maybe counterintuitive. As good as I've felt about the
Speaker 2: Panthers defense, like that's been one of the biggest surprises
Speaker 2: of the season. I think how good they have been. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and you know, almost borderline elite defense. But you know,
Speaker 2: I still think Dallas, even with the offensive line wells
Speaker 2: can put up points on them. And I don't think
Speaker 2: Dallas is going to completely shut down Carolina, So I
Speaker 2: do think it's probably going to squeeze over that that
Speaker 2: fifty total.
Speaker 1: I agree, And again it's a lot of fifteen and
Speaker 1: a half's already out there, so it's it's in between.
Speaker 1: But I agree with you. I lean the over, and
Speaker 1: I have been impressed as well with the Panthers defense,
Speaker 1: But I don't think you're stopping I don't think really
Speaker 1: there is a defense that can fully stop the Cowboys
Speaker 1: offense so long as Dak is healthy and he's got
Speaker 1: at least two pass catchers and both running backs really
Speaker 1: are putting up points. So I agree, I lean over
Speaker 1: here with the fifty. Let's go to the Browns visiting Minnesota.
Speaker 1: The Vikings are laying one point and the total is
Speaker 1: fifty two and a half. As a game, I'm excited
Speaker 1: to watch. What do you think here about the spread?
Speaker 2: I am probably considering this a stay away because I
Speaker 2: do think this works out to be basically a true
Speaker 2: coin flip with the Vikings at home against a good team.
Speaker 1: I may have said the Vikings are laying one, by
Speaker 1: the way, if I did, it's the Browns are getting Okay,
Speaker 1: they're getting one. I apologize, I apologize. Yeah, the Browns
Speaker 1: are the favorite by one. Again, it doesn't matter that much,
Speaker 1: you know, when you're when you're thinking about it, whether
Speaker 1: you're laying one, whether you're getting one. But the Browns here,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, are laying one. Sorry if I misspoken, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's okay.
Speaker 2: So I think the the spread is a stay away
Speaker 2: from me. I'm more interested in the total and maybe
Speaker 2: playing this one under. Just the way the Browns play.
Speaker 2: I think they, you know, are the ultimate ball control
Speaker 2: team and uh sort of want to play slow, whereas
Speaker 2: maybe Minnesota might want to push the tempo a little bit.
Speaker 2: I think the Browns want to go four corners a
Speaker 2: little bit here, run the ball with Chubb and haunts,
Speaker 2: have Baker manage the game. That's kind of been the
Speaker 2: Stefanski formula this season, and I think it's going to
Speaker 2: apply here too.
Speaker 1: I agree with you. You know the Dolphin, that the
Speaker 1: Dolphin's gonna Sorry, the Vikings are explosive really this year,
Speaker 1: you know, more than ever, and Cousins is playing great,
Speaker 1: and the receivers are playing really well, and you know,
Speaker 1: you've got the ton End now involve. But realistically, I
Speaker 1: think that this game is kind of a slugfest in
Speaker 1: a slower moving game than I think most people are
Speaker 1: going to expect. So at fifty two and a half,
Speaker 1: that's what it was, that's that's too high for me,
Speaker 1: So I am going to go under there as well.
Speaker 2: And the other point I would make about that is
Speaker 2: just that if the Vikings had maybe a band in
Speaker 2: the run yesterday without Dalvin Cook, I might feel a
Speaker 2: little differently at all. But they really didn't, Like they're
Speaker 2: not going to get away from the running game entirely
Speaker 2: under Mike Sammer, like we've seen that for several years now,
Speaker 2: and they didn't get away from it yesterday.
Speaker 1: So yeah, and they didn't need I'm Madison look great,
Speaker 1: So that's good that they stuck with it. So even
Speaker 1: if Cook is out, which I kind of think he
Speaker 1: might be for this one, just given what you know,
Speaker 1: he didn't sound particularly close to playing it. Doesn't really
Speaker 1: matter in terms of how we view the game. So
Speaker 1: I agree with you there. Let's go to the Cults
Speaker 1: are visiting the Dolphins. The Dolphins are laying a point
Speaker 1: and a half and the total is a low forty
Speaker 1: three and a half. What do you think.
Speaker 2: I don't think I can support the Colts they're in
Speaker 2: a road game with unless they're getting more points than that.
Speaker 2: But man, this is a this is a tough one.
Speaker 2: Like this is just two teams I do not trust
Speaker 2: at all, So I probably will not touch this one.
Speaker 2: I don't know how you feel about it, Dan, if
Speaker 2: either of these teams grabs you, But have they given
Speaker 2: us a reason to want to throw our arms around
Speaker 2: them yet either one?
Speaker 1: I will. I will be watching this game because we
Speaker 1: watch every football game pat as our job, both as
Speaker 1: you know, on both sides. But I have no interest
Speaker 1: in having like a vested interest in this game on
Speaker 1: one in one way or another. No, I don't. And again, look,
Speaker 1: if you forced me, right, if you were like, hey, Dan,
Speaker 1: here's one hundred bucks you have to bet it on
Speaker 1: this game, I'd probably just take the Dolphins because I
Speaker 1: think they probably wind up coming out ahead in this game.
Speaker 1: But I would have no confidence in doing it whatsoever,
Speaker 1: So just to stand away for me, not a game
Speaker 1: I want to get any piece of. So let's move
Speaker 1: on to uh. I don't know how I feel about
Speaker 1: this one. Pat is the Bears at home against the Lions.
Speaker 1: They're length three and a half, so get that hook
Speaker 1: if you want to take the Lions. And the total
Speaker 1: is also forty three and a half. Justin fields. We
Speaker 1: talked about it yesterday on our fantasy podcast. Looked terrible,
Speaker 1: the offensive line was abysmal. The Bears offense looked broken.
Speaker 1: I assume it's still gonna be fields in this one
Speaker 1: just from everything I've seen about Dalton not being ready yet.
Speaker 1: So what do you think here? With them length three
Speaker 1: and a half against the Lions.
Speaker 2: Doesn't it feel like the odds makers just sort of
Speaker 2: threw up their arms with this one and didn't know
Speaker 2: what to do with it. And you know, under Dan Campbell,
Speaker 2: the Lions have indeed been biting kneecaps. Dan, I mean
Speaker 2: they've they refused to let the forty nine ers put
Speaker 2: them away in week one. You know, Week two against
Speaker 2: the Packers kind of got away from them. But then
Speaker 2: yesterday they should have probably I mean they should have
Speaker 2: and they shouldn't have won that game. Hollywood Brown should
Speaker 2: have had like two or three touchdown catches, and yet
Speaker 2: the Lions it took that sixty six yard bounce off
Speaker 2: the uprights field goal to put them away. So they
Speaker 2: have been really scrappy. On the other hand, two weeks ago,
Speaker 2: we saw the Bears put together a pretty good game
Speaker 2: at home against the Bengals, and you know, they're one
Speaker 2: solid effort this season. I do think they've got a
Speaker 2: better team. Like I've been almost pleasantly surprised by the
Speaker 2: Bears defense. The front seven has been pretty good, actually
Speaker 2: covering up for some of the holes they might have
Speaker 2: in the back end. And meanwhile, like Detroit's got some
Speaker 2: major coverage issues. I mean, this was one of the
Speaker 2: worst groups of cornerbacks to begin with, and they lose
Speaker 2: Jeffrey Akuda, their best cornerback, and then Melafan who's probably
Speaker 2: their second best guy. And I forgive me for not
Speaker 2: knowing whether there's any chance if Malafanu who comes back
Speaker 2: this week, But I mean, they had so many blown
Speaker 2: c against the Ravens, and like the Ravens just couldn't
Speaker 2: fully cash in yesterday. But I think even as dysfunctional
Speaker 2: as that Bear's passing game look this past week, Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think it's destined to look a little better. It
Speaker 2: has to, dan, doesn't. I mean, like Matt Nagy is
Speaker 2: not going to be there next year, but he's playing
Speaker 2: for his next job, and whether that's like a job
Speaker 2: as a a you know, maybe an O C or
Speaker 2: a quarterbacks coach at the NFL level, or you know,
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks coach at with the San Diego State Aztecs
Speaker 2: next year. Like he's a young coach, he's still got
Speaker 2: a career ahead of him, and like he better get
Speaker 2: this ironed out with fields fast, yeah, or he's gonna
Speaker 2: be in Siberia next year.
Speaker 1: I assume that it's going to be better than what
Speaker 1: we saw yesterday. But Pat, you and I could be
Speaker 1: out on the football field and it might be better
Speaker 1: than what we saw yesterday. All Right, I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: bet this game. I'm not. I'm just gonna be transparent.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna bet this game. There's no way, because
Speaker 1: I don't feel common either way. But I think if
Speaker 1: it stays here where I'm getting the hook, I'll take
Speaker 1: the hook, and I'll assume that even if the Bears
Speaker 1: pull it together and it gets better from what we
Speaker 1: saw yesterday, that the Lions figure out a way to
Speaker 1: keep it close and get the garbage time with Swift
Speaker 1: and sort of keeping it there and keeping it within
Speaker 1: a field goal. In a divisional game where I can't
Speaker 1: trust either team, I will just basically take the hook.
Speaker 1: It surprises me a little bit here because I think
Speaker 1: it begs you to take the hook, and I don't
Speaker 1: know why the bookmakers necessarily would want that. I mean
Speaker 1: maybe maybe with what you're saying, like it makes sense
Speaker 1: that they would, but I don't know how you can
Speaker 1: feel confident in either team at this point. So it's
Speaker 1: just something where I don't want to go near. What
Speaker 1: about the total pad at forty three and a half
Speaker 1: anything there?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm inclined to play it over. I mean, we
Speaker 2: have seen that Detroit just can't cover. They don't have
Speaker 2: the person to cover anyone, and like Alan Robinson and
Speaker 2: Darnell mood are going to be open at points in
Speaker 2: that game, and Fields is a good arm. I mean,
Speaker 2: he it was the pass rush that was causing him
Speaker 2: all sorts of problems yesterday, and if they can keep
Speaker 2: him just the least little bit clean. I think he's
Speaker 2: going to be able to do some business against this
Speaker 2: Detroit secondary, which is just in tatters right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, all right. Let's get to the Jets hosting
Speaker 1: the Titans. The Titans are laying seven and a half
Speaker 1: and the totals forty six. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Oh man, it's so hard to back the Jets right now,
Speaker 2: as dysfunctional as it's beending. Yet the Titans not a
Speaker 2: team you really feel comfortable laying seven and a half with,
Speaker 2: so probably a stay away from me. How do you
Speaker 2: feel about this one? I just nothing grabs me here.
Speaker 1: That's all right. I think there's value on the Jets
Speaker 1: that I will not be taking like that. That's how
Speaker 1: I view it. And I think that realistically, when you
Speaker 1: look at these games with the Jets, you're going to
Speaker 1: say all the trends are going to suggest the Jets
Speaker 1: and everything, and I think they'll put up points like
Speaker 1: I don't know. I certainly even hate the forty six
Speaker 1: as the over under there because I do think that
Speaker 1: this is a game where you'll see what happens a
Speaker 1: little bit when the Jets aren't playing a good defense
Speaker 1: like they played the Broncos. They had the Panthers in
Speaker 1: Week one, they had the Patriots. They've played some decent defenses.
Speaker 1: Who can really you know, hone in on the fact
Speaker 1: that their line is terrible. So I think you'll probably
Speaker 1: see some offense. So I don't I don't hate the
Speaker 1: over at forty six, but realistically we also we don't
Speaker 1: know a j Brown status or anything like that. Not
Speaker 1: that that necessarily means a ton, but it's a stay
Speaker 1: away from me. Really, I think there's value on the
Speaker 1: Jets that I have no interest in taking whatsoever. And
Speaker 1: like you said, like I just I can't really back
Speaker 1: the Jets, but the Titans have seemed a little dysfunctional
Speaker 1: at times. Even yesterday in a game that I thought
Speaker 1: that they would they I mean, they wound up winning
Speaker 1: the final scores. Fine, they covered the spread. I had
Speaker 1: them with the spread, but they didn't look particularly impressive overall. Right,
Speaker 1: So I think that it's something where the Jets can
Speaker 1: maybe hang around. I think it'll go over, but I'm
Speaker 1: not betting it either way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that sounds right, And you make a good point
Speaker 2: about the Jets having faced some really tough defenses and
Speaker 2: this is probably going to be their easiest opponent. Maybe
Speaker 2: they can move the ball a little bit more, but yeah,
Speaker 2: they were just kind of drawing dead against the Broncos
Speaker 2: in Denver yesterday.
Speaker 1: And they were and again, and I think that our
Speaker 1: guests from this past week, Alex kalo J basically it said,
Speaker 1: or maybe it was Andrew Kaylee last week at it
Speaker 1: which was basically a after this week, start taking the
Speaker 1: over on the Jets games, because I think you will
Speaker 1: see the offense is not The offensive line is terrible,
Speaker 1: but the offense is not quite as dysfunctional as it
Speaker 1: necessarily has shown, you know, given it they have we'll
Speaker 1: see Elija more obviously at the concussions, so we'll see
Speaker 1: about that. But they can move the ball like they're
Speaker 1: just they have run into some difficult defenses right now,
Speaker 1: and I think you'll see them put up some points
Speaker 1: in this game. So I do lean the over forty six,
Speaker 1: but the spread is an absolute runaway for me, because
Speaker 1: I think there's value on the Jets that I have
Speaker 1: no interest in going near. The forty nine Ers are
Speaker 1: at home here laying three and a half to the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: The total is fifteen and a half. What do you
Speaker 1: think about this?
Speaker 2: One. Pat oh Man, I'm going to have to take
Speaker 2: a longer look at this one, because right off the
Speaker 2: bat like nothing grabs me. You'd think the forty nine
Speaker 2: ers would be in kind of a good bounced back spot.
Speaker 2: But then again, you know, Seattle didn't play their best
Speaker 2: game against Minnesota. So man, it just it seems like
Speaker 2: the right line. Like I don't know who the better
Speaker 2: team is right now, So three and a half for
Speaker 2: the home team sounds about rights and probably leaning over
Speaker 2: like I think it would probably go over, But then again,
Speaker 2: I'm not entirely sure about that either. Garoppolo didn't look
Speaker 2: great against the Packers on Sunday nights. The pass rush
Speaker 2: was really getting to him, and I know Seattle. I
Speaker 2: think the thing that drives me towards the over more
Speaker 2: than anything else is I think Seattle is another one
Speaker 2: of these teams that people are going to attack all year,
Speaker 2: like their cornerbacks are not good, but they can put
Speaker 2: heat on the passer. And green Bay, which had not
Speaker 2: put an any pressure on anyone all season, was getting
Speaker 2: the Garoppolo in Sunday Sunday night, and so I think
Speaker 2: Seattle's going to maybe be able to get to him
Speaker 2: and hold up that back end a little bit, but
Speaker 2: we'll see him. I'm leaning over here. I kind of
Speaker 2: want to dig into this one a little bit more
Speaker 2: before I lock anything in.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree that the over is the play here,
Speaker 1: and that you made a good point like this. I
Speaker 1: did not expect the Seahawks to be able to just
Speaker 1: generally get as much pressure as they have gotten so
Speaker 1: far this year, so I could see that being something.
Speaker 1: But I do think that there's going to be points
Speaker 1: scored in this game for sure. Interesting though, Pat, I
Speaker 1: will ask you, because you basically said you don't know
Speaker 1: which one of these teams is the better team, why
Speaker 1: doesn't that drive you to take the hook?
Speaker 2: Then?
Speaker 1: If you're getting the you know, the three and a half,
Speaker 1: if you think you know, I'm not sure, why don't
Speaker 1: Why don't you just take at this point the the
Speaker 1: you know they're asking you to, they're asking you to ice.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just don't like that half point Sometimes isn't
Speaker 2: compelling enough for me, Like, you know, oh, if it
Speaker 2: was three, i'd walk away from a hook. I'm taking it.
Speaker 2: I guess I don't feel that strongly about that extra
Speaker 2: half point.
Speaker 1: Okay, fair enough, How about the rams are hosting the Cardinals.
Speaker 1: The matchup of three and zero teams. Here, the Rams
Speaker 1: are laying six points. The total is fifty three and
Speaker 1: a half. I love, by the way that it's like
Speaker 1: the total just like fifty three, fifty four, fifty five
Speaker 1: like routinely now in the NFL. It's kind of crazy.
Speaker 1: But again, what do you think they're six points fifty
Speaker 1: three and a half total.
Speaker 2: I'm inclined to go for the Cardinals just because I
Speaker 2: think it's going to be a close game, like a
Speaker 2: really close one, and I think the Rams are maybe
Speaker 2: getting a little too much credit for albeit a very
Speaker 2: convincing win against the Buccaneers, and that's it. I think
Speaker 2: the Rams are being rewarded for beating the team that
Speaker 2: a lot of people maybe pegged as the best team
Speaker 2: in the NFL, the defending champions, who have been playing
Speaker 2: greats going into Week three. So but this one just
Speaker 2: feels like it's going to be a really good game,
Speaker 2: and six points feels like too much to me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, this strikes me at worse. The back
Speaker 1: door cover by the Cardinals like a long as Murray's healthy,
Speaker 1: they can score in three seconds if they absolutely need to,
Speaker 1: and you know, kudos to the Rams. They do look great,
Speaker 1: but you know they you can score off them, you
Speaker 1: can put up points, So I agree, do you awesome?
Speaker 1: By the way, I'll just take the over, like I
Speaker 1: get that, like the total is high, but both teams
Speaker 1: are going to put up points in this game, so
Speaker 1: I will take the over this and again it's for me,
Speaker 1: Pat And you know, again we talked about draftings. It's
Speaker 1: actually forty fifty four and a half already, so that
Speaker 1: maybe I'll be like, okay, fine, like fine, you've got me.
Speaker 1: I'll stay away from it necessarily, but at fifty three
Speaker 1: and a half, I feel okay with it. Really it's
Speaker 1: it's there's gonna be points in this game.
Speaker 2: Same, Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1: All right, your Packers are hosting the Steelers, laying seven
Speaker 1: points here with the Packers and until forty seven and
Speaker 1: a half that the Steelers, I mean, they look terrible.
Speaker 1: They've got injuries everywhere. You know, we don't know what
Speaker 1: receivers are going to be healthy. Their offensive line is
Speaker 1: and shambles.
Speaker 2: What do you think you're Yeah, another thing, I kind
Speaker 2: of want to see the injury report for the Packers
Speaker 2: and whether Elton Jenkins is back. Although they did a
Speaker 2: pretty good job of protecting Aaron Rodgers without Jenkins, and
Speaker 2: you know, of course David Bacciari is still out. But
Speaker 2: I think the for the Packers' offensive line to hold
Speaker 2: up against two pretty good pass rushes in a row
Speaker 2: with that sort of loss of manpower up front might
Speaker 2: be difficult. But as far as an offensive line holding up,
Speaker 2: I mean, Pittsburgh can't hold up to anyone right now.
Speaker 2: And the Packers finally generated a little bit of pass
Speaker 2: rush against San Francisco on Sunday night, you have to
Speaker 2: think they're going to be getting to big Ben Hunt Sunday.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I've seen this does look like
Speaker 2: kind of a letdown spot for the Packers after that
Speaker 2: emotional Sunday night victory. I'll probably walk away from this one.
Speaker 2: But if you forced me to pick it, Dan, I
Speaker 2: would probably take the Homer pick and lay the points
Speaker 2: with the Packers.
Speaker 1: So there are a couple of things I agree. The
Speaker 1: problem is really is the letdown right like that is
Speaker 1: such an emotional victory that they had there, and especially
Speaker 1: with Rogers' history with San Francisco and everything like that,
Speaker 1: like that that is really something on a Sunday night
Speaker 1: where you're just like, this is a prime letdown spot
Speaker 1: for the Packers, but I don't really care pat again
Speaker 1: because of how terrible the Pittsburgh offense looks right now,
Speaker 1: and just like, I mean, you know what we've said.
Speaker 1: You know you said it yesterday we were talking. It
Speaker 1: was sort of like Ben. You know what Ben is doing.
Speaker 1: He's trying to survive long enough not to throw it downfield,
Speaker 1: but to find a three yard checkdown to Naji Harris,
Speaker 1: I think the offense is broken. By the way, I
Speaker 1: will say it's seven. Every single book I'm looking at
Speaker 1: except DraftKings right now is six and a half, so
Speaker 1: that I certainly feel comfortable with doing. But I will
Speaker 1: even take it laying the seven because I think that,
Speaker 1: you know, the Packers, because of the fact that you know,
Speaker 1: they they look so bad in that opening game and
Speaker 1: they're still two and one. They've got to win, They've
Speaker 1: got to keep going with this. I do think that
Speaker 1: they still are going to be good enough to come
Speaker 1: out out with you know, firing. I'm fine taking the
Speaker 1: over as well with forty seven half because I think
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh will put up enough points and I think the
Speaker 1: Packers are going to be able to score on the team,
Speaker 1: So I lean that way, but I will take the spread.
Speaker 1: How about here, Pat? This is a I love, you know,
Speaker 1: Broncos games man early in the season at home. Fascinating
Speaker 1: to see the Broncos three to zero, laying a point
Speaker 1: and a half to the Ravens at home. The total
Speaker 1: is forty four and a half. What do you think
Speaker 1: of this one?
Speaker 2: Like, I think the Broncos are the play. I'm still
Speaker 2: not quite on board with the Ravens. We saw them
Speaker 2: just barely escape with a win against Detroit. We saw
Speaker 2: them lose opening night to the Raiders. Like those injuries,
Speaker 2: the JK. Dobbins injury and the forgetting Marcus Peters injury,
Speaker 2: like those were so big, Like the Marcus Peters injury
Speaker 2: was really a blow to that defense. And yeah, I
Speaker 2: just don't think this is quite the same Ravens team
Speaker 2: we've seen in the past. And I do believe in
Speaker 2: this Denver defense. I mean this is a very airtight defense.
Speaker 2: Just they can really cover in the back end. When
Speaker 2: you've got like three or four good cornerbacks, I mean
Speaker 2: that's just such a plus, Like you know that you're
Speaker 2: going to be, you know, not getting repeatedly burned in
Speaker 2: the passing game, and I don't think the Ravens really
Speaker 2: have the firepower to do that to anyone anyway. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I just like, I think this looks like a really
Speaker 2: good position for Denver, even though they're sort of riding high.
Speaker 2: You know, Baltimore really got grabbed by the lapels and
Speaker 2: shaken a little bit by almost losing to the Lions,
Speaker 2: so I expect them to be on their toes for
Speaker 2: this one. But I just don't know if they're a
Speaker 2: good enough team to like overcome that Denver defense, and
Speaker 2: you know, Denver's got a pretty functional ball control offense.
Speaker 2: I just think Denver might be the better team.
Speaker 1: I think you're right, and it's weird to feel that way,
Speaker 1: but especially also again, Denver at home early on in
Speaker 1: the season is just a spot where you want to
Speaker 1: back the Broncos because again, the thin air there. Eventually
Speaker 1: teams are conditioned enough where it doesn't have quite as
Speaker 1: much of an impact, but throughout September, you know, early
Speaker 1: on in the season, it's kind of where you want
Speaker 1: to be here with the Broncos because again, they're kind
Speaker 1: of used to it, and I mean, we'll be in
Speaker 1: October technically when the game starts, but it is something
Speaker 1: where first four weeks of the season, the Broncos at home,
Speaker 1: they have a great record against the spread. There is
Speaker 1: a reason for that. So I agree with you. I
Speaker 1: lean the Broncos. And it feels weird to sort of
Speaker 1: be saying that at this point, but I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I think they're the right side. How about the Bucks
Speaker 1: visiting the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The spread is six,
Speaker 1: so the Patriots are getting six, the totals forty nine.
Speaker 2: I don't think I could take anyone but the Bucks
Speaker 2: in this game now, with like I don't know, we
Speaker 2: thought mac Jones was maybe going to be an efficient
Speaker 2: game manager, but he's really not been that at all.
Speaker 2: And you know, now no no James White for the
Speaker 2: Panther or the Patriots. That takes away dimension of their offense,
Speaker 2: and kind of an important one at that. So it's
Speaker 2: hard to see how the Bucks don't win this convincingly.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's a great matchup, and you know, like
Speaker 2: we can give Bill Belichick all the credits and he's
Speaker 2: a fantastic coach, but like he likes to take away
Speaker 2: one thing, what are you taking away from the Buccaneers.
Speaker 2: Who are you taking away? You wait, Godwin Evans, Like,
Speaker 2: I just I don't know. I can't see the Patriots
Speaker 2: hanging in this one.
Speaker 1: Nope, there's no way it's under touchdown. I will take
Speaker 1: it any day of the week. Like, I feel very
Speaker 1: confident the Patriots are in my and we're overrated, you know, realistically,
Speaker 1: like the idea that Mac Jones could step in there,
Speaker 1: and again, they don't have anybody explode, Like, they don't
Speaker 1: have explosive playmakers anyway, right, I mean, you know, it's
Speaker 1: just they don't have the personnel necessarily regardless, but Jones
Speaker 1: is you know, they're not good enough for him to
Speaker 1: game manage their way to victories, especially against Tom Brady
Speaker 1: returning to New England off a loss. Like everything just
Speaker 1: screams take the bucks here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's too bad, because I mean, how can
Speaker 2: this game not be great theater? Like can it be
Speaker 2: a great theater if it's not a close game? But
Speaker 2: I just can't wait to see what it looks like.
Speaker 2: But I just cannot conceive of the Patriots like winning
Speaker 2: this one or making it a really really tight game.
Speaker 1: And ps, it's essentially going to be unless I completely
Speaker 1: misread the situation living here in New England, having basically
Speaker 1: all my friends, my wife's entire family being Pats fans.
Speaker 1: They their loyalty is to Brady, and at this point
Speaker 1: over the Patriots like they were a little mad some
Speaker 1: of them when he left, they were done. But then
Speaker 1: watching him succeed now it's watching his personality come out
Speaker 1: here with everything. It seems like they fully come on
Speaker 1: board with Brady and are like whatever. Pats like, we
Speaker 1: can live with whatever. So it's probably it's not even
Speaker 1: gonna be a home build a bandage really for New
Speaker 1: England from what I can tell, so realistically, under field
Speaker 1: goal forget it. I'll take it all day long. Let's
Speaker 1: get to the last game, Monday Night Football, the Chargers
Speaker 1: at home taking on the undefeated Raiders. The Chargers are
Speaker 1: three point favorites. The total is fifty two and a half.
Speaker 1: What do you think here?
Speaker 2: It's a fun, really fun way to wrap up the week.
Speaker 2: Leaning Chargers in this one. I guess I just believe
Speaker 2: in them a little bit more. I think that run
Speaker 2: defense is a bit of an achilles. I don't know
Speaker 2: if the Raiders can capitalize on that. May or May
Speaker 2: not have Josh Shacobs back. We're probably not even going
Speaker 2: to know when Sunday's games kick off, so that's going
Speaker 2: to be confusing for fantasy people for sure. But just
Speaker 2: the way the Chargers handle the Chiefs this past week,
Speaker 2: I worried about kind of a sophomore slump for Justin Herbert.
Speaker 2: We're not getting that at all. He looks terrific. Mike
Speaker 2: Williams has taken another step up, like this passing game
Speaker 2: is now one of the better passing games in the league,
Speaker 2: no question. And you know, I just don't as good
Speaker 2: as Car has been, and he is hanging up some
Speaker 2: crazy yardage totals so far. I just don't think the
Speaker 2: Raiders can go toe to toe with the Chargers on
Speaker 2: the road.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I struggle with this, man. I mean, and I
Speaker 1: was on the Dolphins this weekend getting four or getting
Speaker 1: three and a half and they ultimately wound up covering.
Speaker 1: But I kind of expected the Raiders, especially with Car
Speaker 1: having the ankle injury, to be fla. You know, they
Speaker 1: came out a little flat, but they got there. All
Speaker 1: three of those receivers are getting it done. But with
Speaker 1: that said, I agree with you like the run defense
Speaker 1: we talked about it's fine, and we were joking about
Speaker 1: fantasy about Peyton Barber is gonna have like forty carries
Speaker 1: or whatever, you know this week coming in because that's
Speaker 1: just what they do. But I agree, like, I feel
Speaker 1: like the charters at home in this game are the
Speaker 1: right side for it. Do you have any thoughts on
Speaker 1: the total? Which was where I lost it? Hold on
Speaker 1: it was fifty two and a half.
Speaker 2: I kind of think there are gonna be points. I
Speaker 2: think it's gonna go over. I mean, maybe I'm not
Speaker 2: giving the Raiders defense enough credit. You know. Max Crosby
Speaker 2: has suddenly morphed into young JJ Watt basically where he
Speaker 2: just takes over games by himself. But I just feel
Speaker 2: like these teams are gonna run up and down the
Speaker 2: field a little bit. It has that sort of a feeling,
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna probably play something on the over.
Speaker 1: I agree, it's you know, I hate taking the overs
Speaker 1: on these totals, man, they're so high, But it is
Speaker 1: the right side, you know, because again, you know the books,
Speaker 1: you know, they know the public. Because it's so much
Speaker 1: more fun to root force something than it is to
Speaker 1: root against something. So all these lines are inflated, and
Speaker 1: I just feel like it doesn't matter at this point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's two passing teams, I think, yeah, especially
Speaker 2: if there's no Jacobs. I think these are two teams
Speaker 2: that have to move the ball through the air and
Speaker 2: it just sets up like an over game. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I agree with you, So take
Speaker 1: an hour if you like it. All right, that's going
Speaker 1: to do it. Pat, Thank you so much for joining me.
Speaker 1: By the way, Pat, you know who is a new
Speaker 1: full time edition here to our Fantas Bros and Betting
Speaker 1: Pros team. He's going to be doing a player props
Speaker 1: Pat and I both are fantasy rankers, as I'm sure
Speaker 1: most people listening to this no, so we generally have
Speaker 1: a good sense of player props in the market, and
Speaker 1: that is a market that you can take advantage of,
Speaker 1: generally speaking. So I'm going to be doing a weekly
Speaker 1: player props video. Pat's going to be doing a weekly
Speaker 1: article on some favorite player props that he likes over
Speaker 1: here at Bettingpros dot com, So make sure to check
Speaker 1: that out. Pat, again, really appreciate you joining me. You
Speaker 1: can find pass work at Fantas Bros. And Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: I usually say, where can we find more of your work?
Speaker 1: Everybody knows at this point, but you can follow him
Speaker 1: on Twitter at fits underscore FF. Thank you for joining us. Everybody,
Speaker 1: we'll talk to again. We'll be back later in the week.
Speaker 1: You're talking about some of our best bets for week four.