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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve unders to San Francisco, Bluemberg

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Speaker 1: to the country SIS Exam Channel one ninety and around

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Speaker 1: the globe. The Bloomberg Radio Plus happened. Bloomberg dot com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Welcome back to Bluemberg Surveillance. At

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Speaker 1: eight thirty on Wall Street Michael McKay Economic Indicators brought

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Speaker 1: to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time to

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Speaker 1: change the conversation, talk with the broker dealer r I

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Speaker 1: A that's ready to listen, Call eight six six four

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Speaker 1: six two three six three eight or visit Commonwealth dot

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Speaker 1: com to learn more. One number this morning out early

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Speaker 1: this morning. Of course, the n f I B Small

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Speaker 1: Business is M number falls from to ninety two point nine.

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Speaker 1: Some question about what it actually means. That's the issue

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Speaker 1: with the small business numbers. Plans to hire, little changed, uh,

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Speaker 1: no change in selling prices, no change, well, little little

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Speaker 1: decline in capital spending, but still still higher. So all

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Speaker 1: at all not telling you that things are are terrible,

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Speaker 1: but a little slower. So I don't you know, this

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Speaker 1: is a good question for our next guest task. You know,

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Speaker 1: whether the NFIB survey tells HI a whole lot? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: do you want to bring him in? You want me

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Speaker 1: to bring him in ahead, I'd like to bring him

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Speaker 1: in because I was trying to think of a name

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Speaker 1: the other day and I couldn't get it through my

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Speaker 1: little brain. Fortunately, Dr Mark Sandy came to the rescue.

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Speaker 1: Is we go back to the thirties and look at

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Speaker 1: Charles Coughlin, who, frankly nobody remembers except he was a

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Speaker 1: huge deal in the ferment of economic depression, Mark Sandy,

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Speaker 1: you bring up Charles Coughlin and your research note is

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Speaker 1: being the one that said radio was a tool to

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Speaker 1: get the masses going. We're the same thing today, aren't we. Yeah? Yes,

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Speaker 1: sound that I was an op ed about the Trump

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Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders phenomena and just trying to point out that

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Speaker 1: we've been through this before, something similar back in the thirties,

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Speaker 1: and Father Coughlan was a very strident voice kind of

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Speaker 1: expressing the same kind of concerns that many people feel today.

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Speaker 1: That is, you know, manifest in what's going on politically.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's always there. We somehow get through it.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a confidence as a nation we will

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Speaker 1: move on as we did from say the Coughland of

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Speaker 1: thirty three, with some recovery, even if we stumbled in

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Speaker 1: thirty seven again. Yeah, absolutely, I'm optimistic. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think it's warm Buffett that says never bet against the

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Speaker 1: American economy. I think that's uh that works. Um. You know,

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Speaker 1: I think a lot depends on the economy and in

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Speaker 1: the idea that it will continue to improve, that will

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Speaker 1: create a lot of jobs, that will get to full employment,

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Speaker 1: that wage growth will pick up if all that happens,

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Speaker 1: and I think it will. And then I think this,

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Speaker 1: this angst, which is real and you know, based on

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Speaker 1: something you know clearly fundamental, will begin to fade away

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Speaker 1: and our politics will normal help us. And you've been

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Speaker 1: so good at this over the years. To frame the

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Speaker 1: GDP growth rate, we need to get escape velocity on

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Speaker 1: the anger um A lot of people use that is

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Speaker 1: three point two percent um. We're nowhere near that, do

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Speaker 1: we do we frame two point eight percent is the

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Speaker 1: new three point two? And is that enough umph to

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Speaker 1: get us away from the divisis divisiveness that we see now? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think we're there now, Tom, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: underlying GDP growth is stay closer to two. But at

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Speaker 1: two percent, we're creating a boatload of jobs. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we're creating on average over two or thousand jobs per

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Speaker 1: months two and at three million a year, And that's

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Speaker 1: what we've been doing consistently for four years. And that's

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Speaker 1: a lot more than we need to absorb. The growth

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Speaker 1: in the working age population means that unemployment unemployment will

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Speaker 1: continue to decloin. So we're getting a kind of growth

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Speaker 1: rates that we need. Uh, you know, it would be

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Speaker 1: it will become more of an issue going forward if

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Speaker 1: if we don't see stronger GDP growth, because we'll run

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Speaker 1: out of people. We just won't have the bodies. And

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Speaker 1: if we don't see productivity growth and GDP growth pick up,

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Speaker 1: then we we'll have more of an issue. But just

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Speaker 1: one quick sidebar on that. Actually, you know, I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: not I'm not convinced that we're measuring GDP right. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know too, it doesn't feel like a two percent

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Speaker 1: world to me. It feels like a three percent world. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And I think we are missing a lot of GDP

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Speaker 1: output that's going on out there. And I think that

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Speaker 1: will become quit over time once we get better at

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Speaker 1: measuring these things. Well, the level of GDP, whatever the

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Speaker 1: statistical number is, is probably not going to impress people

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Speaker 1: so much as seeing more money in their paychecks. So

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Speaker 1: when does that start to change? Does that start to

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Speaker 1: change just because we see unemployment fall or has something

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Speaker 1: changed in society because it's not just a question of

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Speaker 1: you know, hourly wages, but income inequality has gotten so big.

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Speaker 1: Median household income isn't rising overall. It just seems that

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Speaker 1: I obviously labors sheriff of capital is has declined. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's that's the rolled over it's changing because you know,

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Speaker 1: we've been in a world of high unemployment, high underemployment,

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Speaker 1: and it's depressed wage growth and you know, stuck it

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Speaker 1: to lower income mental income household that you're right, their

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Speaker 1: median the medium wage hasn't increased and their links standards

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Speaker 1: haven't improved. But here we are, we've created a lot

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Speaker 1: of jobs. Uh, the unemployment rate is four point nine,

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Speaker 1: the use six underemployment rate, which is you know it's

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Speaker 1: a broad measure of slack. Now the nine seven and

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Speaker 1: we're very very close to those levels that are consistent

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Speaker 1: historically with full employment, and that will lead to stronger

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Speaker 1: wage growth. And I think it's already happening. You can

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Speaker 1: see it to somebody agree to be a statistic state.

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Speaker 1: You can see in the a DP data that's aperial

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Speaker 1: process processing data that we put together, and it's happening.

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Speaker 1: And I think a year from now again, if we

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Speaker 1: continue to stay on this trend line and with strong

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Speaker 1: job growth, we're gonna marks Andy withvice with the analytics

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Speaker 1: as we look at uh the growth that's out there.

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Speaker 1: Of course, we get a lot of mail from people saying,

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Speaker 1: Drs Andy, what you're smoking UH is they don't feel

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Speaker 1: that they're part of it. But we'll continue this discussion

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Speaker 1: and I'm better than good g d P growth. We

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Speaker 1: thank all of you for listening. We thank you all

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Speaker 1: for your messages. They come in any way, any form

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Speaker 1: off the Bloomberg terminal. Bill emails and he's a student

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Speaker 1: of depression history and UH notes Father Coughlin was a

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Speaker 1: big influence, many would say import influence during the depression.

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Speaker 1: I was reading Mike about the effort, literally a tenure

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Speaker 1: effort to get the guy off the air, and he

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Speaker 1: was protected by his Bishop of Detroit at the trend

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Speaker 1: until the war came along, and then basically they said,

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Speaker 1: with a war, you gotta go. Well. Thank you Bill

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Speaker 1: for emailing and greatly appreciate that. Futures negative nine down,

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Speaker 1: futures negative sixty one. Time to check in with Michael R.

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Speaker 1: And get the latest world and national headlines. Michael byke time.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much. We're publicly Goanna and the presidential

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Speaker 1: and Democratic presidential primaries will take place today in several states,

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Speaker 1: with the biggest in Michigan. Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

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Speaker 1: campaign and and Arbor Michigan. Sanders thanked his supporters while

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Speaker 1: ribbing Republican front runner Donald Trump in Nebraska. That was

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Speaker 1: a huge turnout. We won the fife. You're right, I

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Speaker 1: should have said you. Senator Marco Rubio campaign and his

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Speaker 1: home state of Florida. Yesterday, Rubio spoke in Tampa. If

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Speaker 1: I'm our nominee, I would unite this party. This party

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Speaker 1: is fractured right now, and this party will be even

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Speaker 1: deeply fractured if we nominate someone that of the people

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Speaker 1: in the party don't like or don't want. Florida's primaries

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Speaker 1: are a week from today. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Ettayah,

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Speaker 1: who says he canceled plans to visit President Obama later

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Speaker 1: this month after he notified the White House last week

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Speaker 1: that he probably would not make the trip. The Obama

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Speaker 1: administration expressed surprise to learn about the cancelation. Today is

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Speaker 1: the two year anniversary of the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines

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Speaker 1: Flight three. Seventy Global News twenty four hours a day,

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Speaker 1: powered by our two hundred journalists more than a hundred

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Speaker 1: fifty news bureaus from around the world. I'm Michael bar

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Speaker 1: Mike Tom. Thank you, Michael. Time now for the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: NBC Sports Update with John Steshaw. Alright, Mike. N C

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Speaker 1: Double A Tournament begins next week. There could be a

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Speaker 1: heavy local presence, even in a year where St. John's

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Speaker 1: and Rutgers both went one in seventeen in conference place.

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Speaker 1: Seaton Hall should make it in Stony Brooks got a

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Speaker 1: good chance to play the America East Final Saturday, either

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Speaker 1: Wagner or after US going they'll in the Northeast Final tonight,

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Speaker 1: and I own a College headed to the n C

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Speaker 1: Double as that Gale beating Monmouth seventy six and the

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Speaker 1: Metro Atlantic Final and Albany, and even with the lost,

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Speaker 1: Monmouth may get in at large invite. The Huffs had

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Speaker 1: several impressive non league wins. Hofstrat denied the Pride miss

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Speaker 1: twelve straight shots over the second half. Lost the Colonial

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Speaker 1: Final in Baltimore to North Carolina Wilmington's eighty to seventy

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Speaker 1: three in overtime. Golden State bounced back from the embarrassing

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Speaker 1: loss of the Lakers beat Orlando. That's forty five consecutive

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Speaker 1: home wins in the regular season. That's a new NBA backer.

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Speaker 1: Big question entering the Peyton Manning retirement presser in Denver

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Speaker 1: would he be asked about the twenty year old allegations

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Speaker 1: of an incident involving a female trainer when Manning was

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Speaker 1: at Tennessee. Brought the light recently because it was part

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Speaker 1: of a Title nine lawsuit against the school. He was asked, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, first of all, this is a joyous day

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Speaker 1: and nothing can overtake from this day. I think it

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Speaker 1: is sad that some people don't uh understand the truth

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Speaker 1: and the facts, and uh I did not do what

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Speaker 1: has been alleged, and I'm not interested in relitigating something

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Speaker 1: that happened when I was nineteen years old. The rest

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Speaker 1: of the day was the celebration of man in his

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Speaker 1: brilliant career, and when pressed on why he was with

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Speaker 1: Tyree now, he kept saying, it was simply the right time.

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Speaker 1: With At the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update, I'm John stand

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Speaker 1: and John thanks so much, greatly appreciate that because the

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Speaker 1: euro one ten twenty yen was a one twelve hand

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Speaker 1: and we've given back a little bit uh stronger again

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Speaker 1: this morning one thirteen point zero for I'm gonna call

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Speaker 1: it a churn in for an exchange oil green on

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Speaker 1: the screen versus the risk off field thirty and eighteen

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Speaker 1: West Texas brand a lofty forty one thirty. He heard

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Speaker 1: Bernard Stanzil of eur Asia Group really pushed against the

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Speaker 1: Goldben Sacks theme published theme this morning Golden, saying, uh,

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Speaker 1: don't be so sure, and Bruno Stanzil more optimistic about

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Speaker 1: a range bound new range for oil for three on Brent.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg's surveillance coming up the FED meets next week.

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Speaker 1: They've already accomplished most of what they forecast for two

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Speaker 1: thousand sixteen, so what do they do? We'll ask marks

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Speaker 1: Andy here upon surveyans if you've