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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: Crushed It. It's good.

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Speaker 1: We're that further ado.

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Speaker 2: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 3: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna leave it up here.

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Speaker 2: You couldn't make su if you try that again, absolutely.

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Speaker 3: Trying to.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast NBA Finals Edition.

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Speaker 1: It's here.

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Speaker 4: The last series of the twenty twenty one playoffs has arrived.

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Speaker 4: The Phoenix Suns take on the Milwaukee Bucks in what

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Speaker 4: should be a really fun series if you're honest, not

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Speaker 4: tonpoken play and no one else gets hurt, which seems

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Speaker 4: like it's asking a lot at this point. Jodimi is

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Speaker 4: always our Raheem Palmer and Brandon Anderson. We're recording this

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Speaker 4: episode on Monday night, July fifth. Hope you guys had

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Speaker 4: a great Fourth of July holiday. Reminded that all of

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Speaker 4: today's bets are available in the Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: You can track all of your bets.

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Speaker 4: Get up to the lines, up to the second lines

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Speaker 4: on everything that you want to know, get numbers, percentages, models,

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Speaker 4: Raheem Palmer's models, Brandon's props, my random x's and nose breakdowns,

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Speaker 4: everything that comes along with it. You can find the

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Speaker 4: Action Network app and to All of today's odds are

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Speaker 4: courtesy of bet MGM, the official odds provider of the

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Speaker 4: Action Network podcast. We'll go over today what the series

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Speaker 4: looks like from both sides. We'll talk about props, we'll

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Speaker 4: talk about series lines, we'll talk about everything, and we'll

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Speaker 4: try and get Raheem Palmer to invest some of his

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Speaker 4: hard earned money on a side as he is currently

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Speaker 4: being his usual cautious self, and we'll find out what

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Speaker 4: absolutely ridiculous long odds prop Brandon's going to talk himself

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Speaker 4: into it looks like a genius in about seven days

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Speaker 4: before he ultimately loses. We'll do all that and more

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Speaker 4: on today's show, but let's start with fellas.

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Speaker 1: How is your weekend? Rahim? How did you get you?

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Speaker 5: Guys?

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Speaker 4: Would both were both really burned out because both of

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Speaker 4: you not only cover the NBA, but you also do

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Speaker 4: writing for the NFL, and so you've just been going

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Speaker 4: non stop for ten months.

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Speaker 1: Did you get the break that you needed? Did you

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Speaker 1: have a good fourth of July run?

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Speaker 6: I did not take a break. I actually spent all

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Speaker 6: day writing two pieces. I wrote a piece on live

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Speaker 6: betting that is coming out tomorrow how to Love Bet

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Speaker 6: the NBA Finals. I also wrote a piece about the

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Speaker 6: ninety three Suns. I did a lot of research. I

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Speaker 6: found every single odds for all of the games for

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Speaker 6: the ninety three Finals, I found the odds for Yeah,

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Speaker 6: I found everything. Like it's just it's really comprehensive, So

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Speaker 6: check it out tomorrow and the Action Networks. So I

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Speaker 6: just really spent the weekend ground grinding. And then also

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Speaker 6: I had a big bet on the Milwaukee Bucks.

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Speaker 3: The other day.

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Speaker 6: I know, I put it in an app that I

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Speaker 6: liked the Hawks pre game and I did take some

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Speaker 6: Hawks pre game, but I watched the first two minutes

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Speaker 6: of a game and I hammered the Bucks. So I

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Speaker 6: had a pretty good weekend all to me, it was

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Speaker 6: like my first losing weekend like four months.

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Speaker 4: I had a great weekend because Suns Bucks cash for me.

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Speaker 1: I had a lot of props on that.

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Speaker 4: Series, and that pretty much I had to go through

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Speaker 4: and clear out my spreadsheet. I'm now I head substantially

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Speaker 4: despite all the money on the Nets futures and Lakers

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Speaker 4: futures that I took throughout the year, I am now

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Speaker 4: up and and no matter what I had hedged my

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Speaker 4: positions correctly that Sons No, no matter who wins and

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Speaker 4: Sons and Bucks, I'm still having I'm gonna be fine.

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Speaker 1: I'm in a great spot regardless there.

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Speaker 4: I am glad that you went ahead and did not

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Speaker 4: rest so that you will be cranky and lost this

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Speaker 4: entire time. I'm also annoyed that you did the opposite

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Speaker 4: of what I did, which was after Game five, I

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Speaker 4: love the Bucks. I was like, I like the Bucks.

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Speaker 4: They're gonna win the series. They're they are the better team.

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Speaker 4: Like that four was was an absolute like aberration. That's

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Speaker 4: I should have I expected.

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Speaker 1: The Hawks to get two games in this series. I

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Speaker 1: should have been expected. And then I'm I'm not kidding you, Rahim,

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Speaker 1: I'm not kidding you.

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Speaker 4: I had a dream on Friday night that Clint Coppell

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Speaker 4: I had a monster game, just like I'm just sitting

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Speaker 4: there having a dream that like Capel and it was

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Speaker 4: one of those that felt so real it felt like

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Speaker 4: deja vu.

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Speaker 1: I swear to god.

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Speaker 4: I got up and I cashed out on all my

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Speaker 4: Bucks bets and I put it Hawks money line for

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Speaker 4: less because I was still like, this is a dream

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Speaker 4: and this is stupid. But I couldn't shake it, and

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Speaker 4: I was so mad at myself. I would have finished

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Speaker 4: eight and one in conference finals on side, but wow,

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Speaker 4: the dream talk to me.

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Speaker 6: I gotta say, that's impressive that you still finished in

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Speaker 6: the green with your futures because you hammered the Nets

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Speaker 6: and the Lakers, so still coming in a head.

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Speaker 3: That's that's amazing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well a lot of it was.

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Speaker 4: You have to like, this podcast has helped a lot,

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Speaker 4: so for those of you that don't know, like I

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Speaker 4: just add on to futures like constantly, like I am

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Speaker 4: always accumulating futures positions like their stock. And one of

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Speaker 4: the things that happened though was the Lakers going down

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Speaker 4: was really helpful for me actually because what it did

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Speaker 4: was it opened it up and it allowed me to

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Speaker 4: be like, wait, I don't just have to bet the

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Speaker 4: Lakers to win the title, like I can, you know,

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Speaker 4: And I had like nets, futures all those things, but

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Speaker 4: because I was betting finals matchups, the odds were really

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Speaker 4: long while the outcomes were reasonably high. Like that's just

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Speaker 4: I don't think that's an efficient market when I look

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Speaker 4: at the numbers that you get on those outcomes if

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Speaker 4: you bet it right and you wait for the for

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Speaker 4: those odds to get to the right spot, because like

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Speaker 4: I was buying Suns bucks at various low points, like

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Speaker 4: when the bucks went down to the nets, I bought

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Speaker 4: more Sons bucks and stuff like that, So I wasn't

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Speaker 4: just buying the bucks low. I was getting an elevated

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Speaker 4: price while the Suns were beating the shit out of

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Speaker 4: the Nuggets. Like I could feel good about the Suns,

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Speaker 4: and I could also feel good about the bucks now,

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Speaker 4: Like my margin would have been a lot better, right

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Speaker 4: if I just if I just just bet Sons Box

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Speaker 4: and just held onto that the whole way. But I

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Speaker 4: am looking for more like marginal opportunities to build the

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Speaker 4: best position, and like look at the Lakers and Nets

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Speaker 4: it hit, i'd be up even.

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Speaker 1: More, like i'd be up way big.

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Speaker 4: I am fine because I managed to get on Sun's

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Speaker 4: bucks and because honestly, like the numbers on those like

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Speaker 4: looking back when I looked back at when I bet one,

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Speaker 4: I bet Sons Box on May twenty seventh, like was

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Speaker 4: one was my original position on that, and at that point,

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Speaker 4: like you're so far out and like that's I can't

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Speaker 4: take a lot of credit on that because it's like

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Speaker 4: look the same maladies that hit everybody else could have

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Speaker 4: hit the sons of the Bucks there, and they in

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Speaker 4: the park did right. But I did add on to

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Speaker 4: them appropriately as it went on. Brandon, I understand that, you, however,

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Speaker 4: had a much better Fourth of July weekend, and uh

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Speaker 4: got some actual rest.

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Speaker 7: I don't know about rest so much. I did get

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Speaker 7: some rest from the NBA grind. I got to get

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Speaker 7: out of town a little bit, how to head out

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Speaker 7: to Kentucky, and got to spend the weekend with two

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Speaker 7: of my favorite families in the whole world. My idea

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Speaker 7: of a getaway weekend is putting myself into a house

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Speaker 7: with eleven children, and we just played games. We played

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Speaker 7: Knockout all weekend and like the ninety degree weather, we

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Speaker 7: had a slip and slide with the camp for campfires'mores,

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Speaker 7: wire balloon fights, three nights of fireworks, you know, the

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Speaker 7: whole thing. So I am physically exhausted, I am mentally recharged.

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Speaker 7: I'm ready for finals. I shouts to the Peterson and

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Speaker 7: Bear kids, who not only support and I was even

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Speaker 7: listening to this podcast even though they didn't follow basketball

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Speaker 7: at all. All weekend. They kept asking mister Brandon how

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Speaker 7: are bets doing? How are we doing? Are we winning?

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Speaker 7: So I've like explained the whole sports betning world they're in.

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Speaker 7: They wanted to hear about Dollar Store Durant. On Saturday,

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Speaker 7: we hit our turnovers. We cashed our Joey chest not

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Speaker 7: to hop dogs over on the fourth of July. It

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Speaker 7: was a great weekend. I'm recharged. I'm ready. You gotta

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Speaker 7: get that Fourth of July Joey chest not over. That's

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Speaker 7: like free money every year, so let's do some finals.

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Speaker 1: I I went to an MLS game on fourth of July.

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Speaker 3: Oh, that's amazing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I went.

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Speaker 4: I went to the Rapids Sounders game in Denver and

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Speaker 4: it was awesome and it was a lot of fun.

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Speaker 4: And I lost a little money because I live bet

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Speaker 4: the Rapids because they were getting great shots on goal

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Speaker 4: and because I don't understand soccer enough to understand how

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Speaker 4: much time is left in the game. But then that

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Speaker 4: it was a great night, fabulous arena or stadium.

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Speaker 1: It was beautiful.

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Speaker 4: It was a clear night and the biggest firework showing

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Speaker 4: in the state of Colorado.

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Speaker 1: So got to enjoy that with my kids. It was

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Speaker 1: a good time, all right. That's enough.

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Speaker 4: Like warm and fuzzies. Let's let's do some fucking basketball, right, suns.

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Speaker 1: And box Let's get everybody have to speed on. We're

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Speaker 1: at right now.

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Speaker 4: As of right now, we're recording this at eleven thirty

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Speaker 4: Eastern on.

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Speaker 3: Monday night.

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Speaker 1: Janas on Compo about I don't know, an hour or.

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Speaker 4: Two ago, was officially listed as doubtful for Game one,

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Speaker 4: which is tomorrow night on Tuesday. The report from from

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Speaker 4: Chris Haynes before Game six was that if it had

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Speaker 4: gone seven, Jannis was a maybe to play in Game seven,

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Speaker 4: which would have been tonight. So to me, this is

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Speaker 4: kind of what I'm expecting. So I will tell you

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Speaker 4: what I've heard the I will refer to this as burblings.

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Speaker 4: So this is not I haven't spoken to Janice's trainer.

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Speaker 4: I haven't spoken to anybody inside the Milwaukee Bucks organization.

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Speaker 4: I haven't spoken to Janet in Compo himself. He and

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Speaker 4: I are not texting right. This is just like what

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Speaker 4: people in the league are saying. The idea was like

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Speaker 4: I've heard middle of the finals is a thing that

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Speaker 4: I've heard multiple people say, is like I've heard middle

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Speaker 4: of the finals.

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Speaker 1: He should be back. You could ask.

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Speaker 4: When's the middle of the finals, because if the Suns

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Speaker 4: sweep them, middle of the finals is game two and

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Speaker 4: is between Game two and Game three.

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Speaker 1: I will say this, I expect him.

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Speaker 4: I am entering this series under For me personally, this

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Speaker 4: is like a I am factoring in all of my

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Speaker 4: knowledge of experience in watching the injuries and everything else.

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Speaker 1: I'm expecting game three. Okay.

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Speaker 4: I think two is maybe like fifty fifty, sixty forty.

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Speaker 4: I think game three is probably above like seventy percent

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Speaker 4: that he plays. So I'm expecting like game three. Again,

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Speaker 4: this is not like, do not consider this to be

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Speaker 4: like Matt more of the Action Network is reporting, I

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Speaker 4: am everyone's guessing here, and yeah, I could be way off,

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Speaker 4: because Giannis can get there just be like I don't feel.

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Speaker 1: Right, and that's it.

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Speaker 4: Like he can get he could tomorrow, he can wake

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Speaker 4: up and be like I'm ready to go, and then

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Speaker 4: he could work out before the game and be like nah,

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Speaker 4: Like that's how.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be.

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Speaker 4: So let's assume for right now we're going into the

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Speaker 4: series that Giannis is not going to play in game

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Speaker 4: one and he's not.

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Speaker 1: Gonna play in game two.

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Speaker 4: Let's make his availability for Game three and four, like

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Speaker 4: at least like a coin flip.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so that's what we're gonna do. Is like our

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Speaker 1: operating procedure. Dante DiVincenzo is out. Everybody's healthy. For the Suns.

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Speaker 1: We're locked in and ready to go. Let's start on

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Speaker 1: the Sun's side.

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Speaker 4: I wrote to today an article on Action Network which

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Speaker 4: will be up when you read this, which is, if

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Speaker 4: you want about the Suns, I have all the reasons

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Speaker 4: that you should. It's basically like confirmation bias. If you're

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Speaker 4: like I think the Suns, but I want to feel

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Speaker 4: better about it, this is the article for you.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 4: My base opinion with the Suns is this they have

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Speaker 4: more paths to victory, which I was not my opicion

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Speaker 4: position going into writing the article. I was very much

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Speaker 4: leaning towards Bucks. I have a Bucks beat Sons ticket

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Speaker 4: from several weeks ago. I like the Bucks. I've liked

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Speaker 4: them consistently. I like the matchup in concept. When I

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Speaker 4: dug in, I am now leaning the other way. Brandon,

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Speaker 4: let's start with you. When the Suns are on offense,

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Speaker 4: what do you think of the biggest keys for the series.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think.

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Speaker 7: I think that I see a big advantage coming from

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Speaker 7: just Chris Paul and Devin Booker just doing their thing,

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Speaker 7: and we know exactly what they're gonna do. Phoenix knows

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Speaker 7: what they're gonna do. Milwaukee knows what they're gonna do.

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Speaker 7: And this is the test, this is the ultimate test

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Speaker 7: to see. Okay, all this work that Milwaukee's defense has

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Speaker 7: done all season long, They've been, you know, experimenting, can

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Speaker 7: can the drop coverage hold up at the highest levels?

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Speaker 7: Can the switching thing work? And they've done more and

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Speaker 7: more of that at times in the postseason that I

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Speaker 7: especially early, especially because, like you said, we're assuming that

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Speaker 7: Giannis probably doesn't play for at least a couple of games.

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Speaker 7: Now we're looking at a Bucks defense that has to

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Speaker 7: pretty much keep brook Lopez out there just because they

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Speaker 7: don't have other options. They can't. They're out of bodies.

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Speaker 7: It's either brook or it's Bobby Portis. And Portis, don't forget,

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Speaker 7: got played completely off the court out of the series

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Speaker 7: in Brooklyn. He could have just stayed home and watched

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Speaker 7: it on TV. He didn't play a second in the

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Speaker 7: last three minutes so or the last three games. Sorry,

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Speaker 7: And I think that Chris Paul and Devin Booker just attacking, attacking,

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Speaker 7: attacking that over and over again. I see that as

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Speaker 7: as just really you know, keeping their thumb on, just

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Speaker 7: really putting the pressure on that pressure point that we've

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Speaker 7: seen affect Milwaukee a lot. If Lopez takes that extra

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Speaker 7: half step out trying to take that little elbow jumper

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Speaker 7: away from Booker, from CP, we know it's coming. Now

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Speaker 7: it's Ayton. Okay, so we've seen what Ayton can do

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Speaker 7: in the postseason. I need to see I need to

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Speaker 7: see engaged Deandrayton. I need to see aggressive down Rayton.

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Speaker 7: I think in those moments when Lopez, you know, when

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Speaker 7: he steps out a little bit, okay, or when they

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Speaker 7: switch and now they're switching and now you know, now

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Speaker 7: who's on down Drayton?

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Speaker 2: Is it PJ? Tucker?

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Speaker 7: Is it somebody much smaller? I need to see somebody.

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Speaker 7: I need to see Ayton with his huge size and

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Speaker 7: strength advantage, use it.

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Speaker 2: I need to see it happen.

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Speaker 7: And yeah, I just I feel like I feel like

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Speaker 7: the Suns are gonna have not just CP and Booker,

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Speaker 7: but campaign.

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Speaker 2: Don't forget he got hurt last series.

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Speaker 7: So I think this like almost a week off is

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Speaker 7: really big for him to get healthy. He's been great

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Speaker 7: in the playoffs coming off the bench, providing energy. The

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Speaker 7: Bucks are a tired team. I think in Pain's energy

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Speaker 7: against a bench unit that is lacking more than ever,

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Speaker 7: while they're so shorthanded, I think that that's just a

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Speaker 7: third guard that can just keep them coming, just keep

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Speaker 7: on coming. So I the Bucks defense has been great

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Speaker 7: in the playoffs. It's why they're still here. It's not

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Speaker 7: the offense. They've done just enough. The defense is why

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Speaker 7: they're here. But I like a lot of how the

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Speaker 7: Suns do match up with them.

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Speaker 1: Okay, some things there. One I think that Campaign.

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Speaker 4: Pain's an interesting one in the series for this reason.

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Speaker 4: When Pains hit big shots like that's what he's done

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Speaker 4: is he's just like wow, a campaign hit another open

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Speaker 4: three like wow, campaign hit another contested shot like wow.

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Speaker 1: Campaign got to the rim.

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Speaker 4: When campaign had to run actual offense, things did not

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Speaker 4: go well.

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Speaker 1: Like when he had to run actual pick and roll.

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Speaker 3: It was bad. It was just bad.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's still kind of a limitation. Is

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Speaker 4: I'll say this, the Sun's offense struggled with the Clippers defense,

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Speaker 4: and you can say like, well, yeah, that's that's because

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Speaker 4: the Clippers switch everything. Yeah, but they still don't have

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Speaker 4: good defenders. The Bucks have great defenders. Like Rahim, I'll

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Speaker 4: tell you right now, I'm on Sun's money line for

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Speaker 4: Game one.

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Speaker 1: M I'm gonna betting the Unders. I think a lot

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Speaker 1: in this series. Yeah, until the lines adjust, because look,

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Speaker 1: I mean they're not.

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Speaker 4: It's not like we have this like big juicy number

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Speaker 4: that we can just like really think it has a

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Speaker 4: lot of TV here, it's to eighteen right to eighteen

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Speaker 4: and a half of Game one. But I do think

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Speaker 4: this is gonna be more one of four, one O seven,

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Speaker 4: one hundred and one oh three. Both of these teams

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Speaker 4: are exceptional defensively.

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Speaker 1: I look this up.

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Speaker 4: This is the number one and number two teams in

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Speaker 4: allowed field goal percentage of the RIM. I think for

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Speaker 4: the Suns offensively, a lot of it really is gonna

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Speaker 4: come down to contested shot making. I do give them

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Speaker 4: the edge there because they've got they've got Chris Paul,

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Speaker 4: and they've got especially Devin. I'll say this, like Chris's

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Speaker 4: shooting numbers are a little concerning, Like you go back

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Speaker 4: and you look at game six, he was phenomenal versus

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Speaker 4: the Clippers in Game six, he was terrific in the

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Speaker 4: entire four games versus the Nuggets, Like it's the point,

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Speaker 4: He's the point guy, full respect to him. I got

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Speaker 4: a whole thing up about his career and what this means,

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Speaker 4: Big Chris Paul guy here. The shooting, quite honestly, has

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Speaker 4: been a little wobbly.

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Speaker 6: I mean, how much is that has to do with

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Speaker 6: the fact that he just came back from COVID because

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Speaker 6: I think that's when his shooting, because we saw him

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Speaker 6: in a Nugget series and he made everything.

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Speaker 4: If that's your take, then you cannot think that he's

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Speaker 4: gonna shake it though, that's my thing. Tatum talked about

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Speaker 4: how it stayed with him for months. Everybody that if

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Speaker 4: he had it, which again we haven't confirmed, like there's

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Speaker 4: been there has been suggestions of a positive test.

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Speaker 1: There's been assumptions, but.

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Speaker 6: Maybe maybe some of that, some of that could be

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Speaker 6: Russ too. I mean, he missed what he missed like

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Speaker 6: fourteen days and he played, he only played, he didn't

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Speaker 6: play games one and two.

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Speaker 4: Kind of it fourteen days, right, because it was like

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Speaker 4: he got he got diagnosed on like Wednesday, and then

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Speaker 4: like that first game was like a week later.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't two weeks, it was.

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Speaker 6: It was probably like it was it was close to

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Speaker 6: like ten ten days and he couldn't practice.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that Chris Paul is so rusty after

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Speaker 1: ten days?

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Speaker 4: Like that ten days would cause that much rest or

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Speaker 4: that much rust on him.

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Speaker 3: See, I'm struggling to determine what.

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Speaker 6: It is because he did come back in game six

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Speaker 6: and he hit everything.

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Speaker 4: And so that that I think here's the thing. I

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Speaker 4: think that your framework here is something that I'm a

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Speaker 4: little I don't think it's wrong if you want to

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Speaker 4: follow through with it, I'm a little cautious on it

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Speaker 4: because it fits into like this very neat narrative package, right, like, oh,

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Speaker 4: he had COVID, he got better, he hit shots in

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Speaker 4: game six when it's like, what if his variance is

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Speaker 4: just higher now?

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Speaker 3: Gotcha?

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Speaker 4: He's like thirty six, Like what if the variance is

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Speaker 4: just higher now? And he's gonna and Brandon and I

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Speaker 4: were talking about this, here's a big key when they're

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Speaker 4: on offense. In the regular season, the Suns won both

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Speaker 4: matchups by a combined two points. Drew Holliday did not

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Speaker 4: play in one of the games. Johannis got hurt. I

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Speaker 4: believe in the other game late he twisted an ankle.

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Speaker 4: De Vincenzo guarded CP three a lot and he say like, oh,

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Speaker 4: but but de Vincenzo's not there, to which I say, yeah,

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Speaker 4: here's the problem.

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Speaker 1: He didn't actually do a good job. Chris got to

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Speaker 1: whatever spot.

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Speaker 4: He wanted him was clean because Devincenzo wasn't able to

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Speaker 4: get off of screens.

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Speaker 1: The biggest thing that Drew Holliday can do is he's

402
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Speaker 1: so athletic he can come off that screen.

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Speaker 4: It's a lot different when you have a defender that

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Speaker 4: you're comfortable against putting him in jail on your hip

405
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,200
Speaker 4: versus Drew Holliday, who's really good about recovering and can

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Speaker 4: get over the backside and block it. And when CP

407
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Speaker 4: three feels pressure at this point in his career, he

408
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:21,600
Speaker 4: is more likely to either dribble out and try and

409
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 4: extend that to try and like he may try and

410
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 4: force brook Lopez into the switch, but the Bucks are

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Speaker 4: really good about denying that, Like they are really good

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Speaker 4: about just like they don't allow you to get that switch.

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00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 4: If they play drop, it comes off and CP three

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Speaker 4: dribbles towards the baseline. Drew Holliday is gonna tail him

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Speaker 4: and just be like, look, if you give Ayton an

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Speaker 4: eighteen footer, fine, have at it, Like we'll give up

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00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 4: the picking pop. That's fine, But Drew Holliday is going

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Speaker 4: to be chasing you down. We're not gonna let you

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Speaker 4: get Brook Lopez on an island. They're like, I am

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Speaker 4: the number one one, the drop sucks guy. The Bucks

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Speaker 4: are doing an exceptional job. If you're gonna play it,

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Speaker 4: you gotta play it how the Bucks have played it.

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Speaker 4: So this is all to say that, like, I think

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Speaker 4: that a lot of this, if you want to go

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Speaker 4: in on the Suns, you need to have a lot

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Speaker 4: of faith that Devin Booker is gonna be absolutely thermonuclear

427
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Speaker 4: in this series got But if he's not nuclear, it's

428
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 4: hitting night be thermonuclear, because like we'll get to this

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00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 4: with the Bucks in a minute. But like, to me,

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Speaker 4: the argument is basically, I think this is gonna be

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Speaker 4: a rock fight, and Booker's gonna hit enough tough shots.

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Speaker 1: That's where I'm at right now.

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Speaker 6: So you're basically saying that you think that Jrew Holliday

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Speaker 6: is gonna come out guarding Chris Paul and basically Devin

435
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Speaker 6: Booker's gonna win MVP if the Sun's going to win

436
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:44,919
Speaker 6: this series.

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00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Okay, I think there's I think there's value. Now.

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Speaker 4: I've got Chris Paul plus four hundred ticket from before

439
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 4: they won the conference finals. I bet that after they one,

440
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 4: after they went up three to one, I believe that's

441
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:03,720
Speaker 4: when I got Paul mm hmm. But Brandon like that,

442
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,880
Speaker 4: that's I do think that that's probably where I see

443
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 4: the value you talk about Eightton.

444
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,640
Speaker 1: I'll say this, the Sons don't give him the ball.

445
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 4: On switches, Brandon, they don't they give it. They give

446
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 4: it to him on cuts. Sometimes they'll do it for

447
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 4: a quarter just to like they did this versus the Clippers,

448
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 4: basically to be like if you do not put a

449
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,200
Speaker 4: body on him, if you pay attention.

450
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 1: To our ball handlers, we're gonna hit.

451
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 4: Him with lobs and cuts just enough to make sure

452
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 4: that their ball handlers get space. But other than that,

453
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 4: they're a jump shooting team, like.

454
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:39,879
Speaker 1: They just that's what they want to do.

455
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 4: Is like the Suns want to want to move the ball,

456
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 4: play pick and roll and hit jump shots, like that's

457
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 4: what they want to do. Like I would love for

458
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 4: them if if you could tell me that they were

459
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 4: going to give the ball to Ayton on switches and

460
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 4: have him punish PJ. Tucker or punish your holiday or

461
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 4: mid great. I don't think they'll do it, which I

462
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 4: think is another reason why, like the Suns are gonna

463
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 4: have more trouble offensively, You can talk yourself into a

464
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 4: very ten thousand foot view of like the Sons are

465
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 4: gonna win the series, for one, because they can actually

466
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 4: score and the Bucks can't. The Bucks are such a

467
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 4: great defensive team, They're going to make things hard on

468
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 4: the Suns, and they do not trust Eighten enough to

469
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 4: just be like, all right, big fella, you got to switch,

470
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 4: go get them.

471
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,199
Speaker 2: You agree, Yeah, I do agree. I mean we saw that.

472
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 7: I forget which game I was that the game last

473
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 7: series when Zubac suddenly was out and everyone was all

474
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 7: excited to start betting, you know, hammering the eight and

475
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 7: overs like all.

476
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 2: Right, well here we go, no size so eight and

477
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 2: go to work, buddy.

478
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 7: And we've talked about this on our podcast before, Like

479
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 7: that's just that's not what they do. Not everyone is

480
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 7: Joel Embiid. It turns out just Joel Embiid is Joel

481
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 7: embiid like there, when you're not the modern you know,

482
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 7: not many modern teams just dump it into the post

483
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 7: and let them do their thing. And when you're not that,

484
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 7: it's not easy to just do that, like that's yeah,

485
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 7: that's not what Chris Paul and what Don Booker have done.

486
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: So it's not like an easy switch.

487
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 7: And really it's like you're saying, it's one that we've

488
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 7: seen them choose not to do, Like we've seen when

489
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 7: they should have had that advantage and hammered the advantage

490
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 7: and still not gone to it. So I think it's

491
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 7: a good point. I want to push back about the

492
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 7: Chris Paul thing. So tell me more about your concern

493
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 7: about Chris Paul's shooting because so I'm.

494
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 2: Looking at the numbers right now. So we missed those

495
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 2: two games.

496
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 7: It was eleven days off between games, by the way,

497
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 7: So June thirteenth was the last Denver game June twenty

498
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 7: fourth for the Clippers.

499
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 2: Those first two.

500
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 7: Games back terrible terrible shooting numbers five of nineteen, six

501
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 7: of twenty two, real bad, twenty six and twenty seven percent.

502
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 7: So no arguments there, two horrible shooting games. The next

503
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 7: game eight of nineteen it's not great, but that's all

504
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 7: of six on threes, which is variance, and it's eight

505
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 7: of thirteen on twos, which is really good for Chris Paul.

506
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 7: Next game sixty of twenty four, which is boosted by

507
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 7: the threes, but still really good on twos also, and

508
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 7: then okay, so we know that the Nuggets thing was

509
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 7: a huge outlier. We know that that was like historically

510
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 7: good mid range shooting. We saw those numbers. Then the

511
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 7: Lakers series is the other side. He didn't have a shoulder.

512
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,479
Speaker 7: He literally couldn't shoot. He wasn't even trying to shoot. Like,

513
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,919
Speaker 7: as I look at the numbers, the number that I

514
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 7: see that that stands out. Actually, those last four Clippers games,

515
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,200
Speaker 7: the only four he played, he shot seven, three, six,

516
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 7: and eight three pointers.

517
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 2: That I like.

518
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 7: Because that tells me he actually feels confident in the

519
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 7: three pointer. Now, he feels confident in a shot. Now

520
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 7: we saw, you know, he wasn't even taking those. He

521
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 7: wasn't even he was passing him up early in the year.

522
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 7: So to me, it's the shoulder thing. And we're a

523
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 7: month out from that now and he just had another

524
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 7: week off. We don't know, we don't know the COVID thing.

525
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,479
Speaker 7: We have no way to know. All we can do,

526
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 7: you know, same as the honest thing. We only can guess.

527
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 7: But I think that the shooting, the way that the

528
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 7: volume is up on his shots, and the confidence he's

529
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,959
Speaker 7: showing in his own shot gives me confident.

530
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 4: And yeah, So here's the trick, Brandon, is that I

531
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:04,800
Speaker 4: have more resources than you.

532
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 1: That's the lesson here.

533
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 4: So I have access to some numbers thanks to a

534
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 4: friend this has provided me. From second spectrum. I pulled

535
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 4: all the contested jumper rates for both play for all

536
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 4: the players in both series, and amongst the guys that

537
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 4: have actually taken a reasonable amount of them, there are

538
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 4: eleven players that have basically taken at least fifty contested

539
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 4: jumpers in the playoffs. And that's what I care about.

540
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 4: Can you make contested ones like Chris is going to

541
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 4: hit a fair amount of like open ones. I'll say this,

542
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 4: if the Milwaukee Bucks are leaving Chris Paul opened, something

543
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 4: has probably gone wrong. That's greater and the Bucks are

544
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 4: already screwed. But let's assume let's give them the benefit

545
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 4: of the doubt of a great defense and say that's

546
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 4: not going to happen. Of the eleven players on contested

547
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 4: jumpers that I've got tracked for this thing, Chris Paul

548
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 4: is eighth at forty seven point three percent effective field

549
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 4: goal percentage not field goal percentage.

550
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 1: EFG, you're below fifty percent.

551
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 4: Concerning the top three are Forbes, Content and Lopez obviously

552
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 4: with lower amounts, but they've shot really well.

553
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: On your contest.

554
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 4: The best high volume dude is Devin is Booker obviously

555
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,239
Speaker 4: fifty two point four to six, and then Crowder at

556
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 4: fifty point nine to five. That makes a lot of sense,

557
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 4: and that matters to me in terms of the Sun's thing.

558
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 4: But then you got Mid, you got Campaign, and then

559
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 4: you got Mid.

560
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: And then you got Chris Paul.

561
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 4: So this is kind of my point here is I

562
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 4: think the best way to put it is maybe the

563
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 4: easy stuff is still what he can absolutely knock down.

564
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,479
Speaker 4: And we saw that in the Denver series, and we

565
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 4: saw someone in the Clipper series when when this and

566
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 4: like the Clippers have breakdowns. They're not a great defensive team.

567
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 4: That's why I like the Suns in that series. The

568
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 4: Clippers on a great defensive team. The Bucks are a

569
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,440
Speaker 4: great defensive team, and I think Chris is going to

570
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 4: have to hit contested stuff, and Chris is gonna hit

571
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 4: have knights when he hits some contested stuff. He's gonna

572
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 4: have games where he hits a lot of contested stuff.

573
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 4: I think overall, there's at least I have some concern

574
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 4: about variability from game to game in the series.

575
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 1: Does that make sense?

576
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 7: It does, so, I guess I feel I feel largely

577
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 7: the same way. It's just that I am expecting Drew

578
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 7: to defend book largely, so I'm expecting big variants from

579
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 7: Booker and don't like him as Finals MVP. I got

580
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 7: I think Booker has a couple of really big games,

581
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 7: and then you know that Drew gets up in his

582
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 7: grill and gets into him. So why do we think

583
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 7: you know so Holiday guarded Booker in the season when

584
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 7: de Vincenzo was available to play. Why won't it be

585
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 7: you know who Pat Connatan or who whoever is next?

586
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 7: Why does Drew switch over to Chris Paul? Because if

587
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 7: if the box agree with you that Booker is the

588
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 7: real danger in the series, then shouldn't Drew Holiday be

589
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 7: on Booker?

590
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 4: Uh? The majority of time in the regular season in

591
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 4: Cornet NBA comes matchup stats, Drew Holiday defended Chris Paul.

592
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 2: But you Evencenzo was guarding him. So I no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

593
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 1: One of the reasons de Vincenzo was guarding Chris Paul

594
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: was in one of the games Drew Holiday did not play.

595
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 2: Sure, Okay, that's that's fair.

596
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: And so here here's a lot of it.

597
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 4: This is actually a for I think the the Bucks

598
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 4: in the series, Mid guarded Booker most of the time.

599
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: Here's what's kind of surprising. Devin shot five of twelve

600
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 1: forty seven percent shooting.

601
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 4: These numbers are really I gotta stress this I always

602
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 4: use whenever I say and like, it's a running joke

603
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 4: with with colleagues that I always say this I always

604
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 4: refer to as NBA dot COM's admittedly wonky tracking data.

605
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 4: So the matchup stuff is not perfect. It's just not

606
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 4: like there's there's noise in it. It's hard for the

607
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 4: cameras to get like it's you're often facing you're often

608
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 4: defended by multiple people, it turns out, but Mid did

609
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 4: them give most of the time on Booker. I actually

610
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 4: kind of think the Mid and Booker are just going

611
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 4: to basically guard each other most of the series. I

612
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 4: think that it's possible that the Kale Bridges gets a

613
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 4: turn on mid. I think that that's I think that's

614
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 4: possible given that if they start Portous without Yannis out

615
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 4: right and you're probably like, okay, like, oh we could,

616
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 4: we can probably get around this. Me Bridges takes Portus maybe,

617
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 4: but I can see a lot more flexibility there. I

618
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 4: do think, however, I think Drew's gonna take Chris Paul

619
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 4: if for no other reason, then if you cut off

620
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 4: pick and roll and it's all Booker iso stuff, that's

621
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:16,719
Speaker 4: what the Bucks want.

622
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 1: Like if you're the Bucks, don't you want that?

623
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 4: Like you're just like, yeah, all right, all right, dev

624
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 4: try and score seventy, Like we're gonna limit your three pointers,

625
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 4: we're gonna protect the rim, we're not gonna let you

626
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 4: get easy stuff, and we're gonna make Booker score seventy

627
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 4: and we're gonna wear you out. Like that sounds like

628
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 4: Buck strategy, does it not?

629
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 2: I think it does? But why why can't Booker?

630
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 7: You know, he's been point Booker before and he's had

631
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 7: big assist games, So isn't that the answer to that?

632
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: Then?

633
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 4: Like yes, And which is why we probably which is

634
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 4: why we probably lean towards Sure, which is why we

635
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 4: probably lean towards suns.

636
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 1: But it doesn't mean that the Chris Paul stuff is wrong, right, sure?

637
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, I think back to to my original point

638
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 7: is just like you've got Chris Paul and Drew Chris

639
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 7: Paul and down. Booker is two and Drew Holiday is one.

640
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 7: So whichever one you've you've convinced me Drew Holiday probably

641
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 7: guards Chris Paul. Whichever one he can't guard because there's

642
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 7: only one of him, then I like that the other

643
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 7: one is still gonna be able to keep putting that

644
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 7: hitting that pressure for you.

645
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 1: Here's a question for you.

646
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 4: Who does Booker guard? Let's go to the Bucks. Who

647
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 4: who does because we'll come back to this. Who does

648
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 4: Booker guard?

649
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 2: Yeah?

650
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's that's a major issue.

651
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 6: And I expect I came into the series expecting the

652
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 6: Bucks to hunt him down.

653
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 4: You think, yeah, it's involving him in pick and roll,

654
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 4: So he guard ad Mid Like I said, most of

655
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 4: the time, you can't put him on Hortois like Bobby.

656
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 4: You could say, like, well, I'm not worried about Bobby Porter.

657
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 4: Bobby will just beat the ship. Out of him, Like

658
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 4: it's not even about like because this is the whole

659
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 4: thing with the big question with who Booker Booker guards

660
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 4: is not. Booker is a bad defender. He's the worst

661
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 4: defender of their bunch, but who cares. He's awesome offensively.

662
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 4: The big key here is the Bucks are going to

663
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 4: try and wear Devin Booker out. Yeah, if he guards

664
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 4: mid then if they switch, they're gonna run him up

665
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 4: against Brook or against Portis, and then he's gonna get

666
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 4: bodied a lot, and that's gonna be exhausting, like if

667
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 4: they put just just putting him in pick and roll

668
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 4: because you have to navigate all that stuff is exhausting.

669
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 4: So I think that's like probably the Bucks play is

670
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 4: like they just probably target him over and over and

671
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 4: over again, like if Bridges starts out on Portois, Like, honestly,

672
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 4: I'll be really interest to see what happens when Giannis

673
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 4: gets back right, because if it's the starts the standards

674
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 4: starting five, how do you match that up? Like, Okay,

675
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 4: you know Aiden guards Brook, but Aiden guarded Giannis most

676
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 4: of the time in the regular season, which is fine.

677
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 4: You can have Crowder guard Brook and just be like

678
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 4: we're gonna try and stay home and can test the threes, right,

679
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 4: that's fine. So then it becomes like in that third spot,

680
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 4: how do you like, you know, do they go back

681
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 4: to con There are all these questions that.

682
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 2: Come out of this.

683
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 7: I think, shouldn't I guess I have been assuming that

684
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 7: McHale would get the first assignmon On Middleton and then

685
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 7: that Booker. You put Booker on Conaton or whoever? That

686
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 7: other guy is Forbes content whoever?

687
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 4: If it's it's not gonna be content, I would bet

688
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 4: they're gonna play Portis again. So do you put Do

689
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 4: you put Booker on Portois and let Portis just ram

690
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 4: him under the basket? No?

691
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 7: I think I put I think I put Crowder on

692
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 7: Portois in that matchups because because the honest is out?

693
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 1: So who do you put?

694
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 7: Isn't there still a fifth We're missing a fifth starter

695
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 7: where we're missing the DiVincenzo content spot, aren't we?

696
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 4: So they started Booker or they started Chris Drew Tucker Lopez?

697
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, forgot about Tucker.

698
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: Do you put Booker on Tucker?

699
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 2: Sure?

700
00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 6: I think that's that's that's exactly where you had him

701
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 6: at because all Tucker is gonna do a stand in

702
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 6: the corner. But I think the Bucks are gonna beat

703
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 6: them up on the offensive glass Yep.

704
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're definitely gonna try it too, for sure.

705
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,879
Speaker 4: I mean they're gonna like the Sun's the second chance

706
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 4: points is one of the few, Like, oh, that's kind

707
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 4: of concerning. They have a they have a surprising weakness. Now, look,

708
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,479
Speaker 4: I'm not somebody that believes like offensive rebounds are gonna

709
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 4: carry you.

710
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 3: I don't.

711
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 4: I don't think the way I would describe it as

712
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 4: that's not a meal, right, It's like that's an appetizer,

713
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 4: that that's a dessert. That's like a side dish. That's

714
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,879
Speaker 4: your side solid. That's fine, it's great, it's filling. It's

715
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 4: not a meal. Your half court offense has to be

716
00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 4: your meal.

717
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 6: But I think, I mean, like you said, it's just

718
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 6: the half court offense has to be a meal. And

719
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 6: it's just like, how do you trust this Bucks team?

720
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 6: We talk about all the time they're shooting just doesn't

721
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 6: show up in the playoffs. And I think that the

722
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 6: big thing with Giannis being out is that this team

723
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,880
Speaker 6: becomes so jump shot depended, whereas just.

724
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,919
Speaker 1: The thing is it didn't.

725
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,839
Speaker 4: Though, Like so here's Here's here's like the problem with that.

726
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 4: It wasn't versus the Hawks, like they still kept attacking

727
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 4: the rim, like Brooke was huge in Game five. The

728
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 4: problem is that that Hawks team couldn't defend the rim. Right, So,

729
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 4: like this is it's not as simple as like without Yannis,

730
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,320
Speaker 4: they've become a jump shooting team, because it's actually not accurate.

731
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 4: The problem is he is trying to adjust what they

732
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 4: were able to do to Atlanta versus such a better

733
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 4: defensive team at the rim than the Suns.

734
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, Like that to me is like the is

735
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 1: like a big key of this.

736
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 4: So these are the two biggest stats I pulled today

737
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 4: and everything that I did, these are the two biggest numbers.

738
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: The Sons are number one in opponent field goal percentage

739
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 1: at the rim. The Bucks are number two.

740
00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 4: Suns opponents in the playoffs are shooting thirty three percent

741
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:01,240
Speaker 4: on jump shots.

742
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,320
Speaker 1: That's the best mark in the league.

743
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 2: Now, thanks thanks Faku Compazo.

744
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 1: Well that's the thing.

745
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 4: We got two ways to look at this, which is

746
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 4: either they haven't faced enough, like the Lakers don't have

747
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 4: anybody that can score. The Nuggets had no guards, the

748
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 4: Clippers were exhausted and no Kawhi. But then, like to

749
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:30,800
Speaker 4: Raheem's point, it's the Bucks and none of us feel

750
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 4: good about there. So that's another reason why I just

751
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 4: want to be in like this is a good situation

752
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 4: where I think two years ago i'd be like, the

753
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 4: Bucks should win, the Bucks should win, the Bucks will

754
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 4: win exist in such different universes.

755
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, that you you just there's no thread line there.

756
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,719
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786
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: The Bucks are gonna look the Bucks will I look?

787
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 4: I love what Portos has given them, flat out loved it,

788
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 4: Like you talked about him being bench versus Brooklyn, Fine,

789
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 4: he was awesome versus the Hawks was he was great.

790
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 1: Chris will put him in pick and rolls. That's the problem.

791
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 4: It's like Brooks good enough to contain him, Portois is not,

792
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 4: and so Portis has to get it back at the

793
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 4: other end. You know, if Crowder is guarding him, that

794
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:49,279
Speaker 4: gets tough. But if McHale Bridges is guarding him, I

795
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,359
Speaker 4: think he can do that. Like Bridges is a really

796
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 4: good defender, but Bridges is definitely a wing defender.

797
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: He's wiring, you.

798
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 4: Know, like Bobby's all muscle. It was I thought it

799
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,359
Speaker 4: was insanity that he's started that last game. I thought

800
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 4: that was nuts. I was like, what are you doing?

801
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 4: This is madness? And then I was like, oh, it

802
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 4: works because Bobby was awesome. Like that was an incredible move.

803
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 4: I feel like I have a hard time kind of

804
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 4: trying to judge the Sun's defense is good. Rahim, Are

805
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 4: you with me though that, Like the Sun's defense is

806
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 4: not as good as the Bucks defense?

807
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 6: I totally agree, And I mean you already listed the

808
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 6: opponents that they played, so they kind of ran good

809
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 6: in that aspect.

810
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: Brandon, are you with me on that?

811
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,439
Speaker 2: Yeah? I am. But but let me bring up though.

812
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,440
Speaker 7: So we we talked about the Suns and the Son's opponents,

813
00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 7: and like, it's not an asterisk. You can only play

814
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 7: the teams in front of you. I know we all

815
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 7: agree on that.

816
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 2: It is what it is.

817
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,240
Speaker 7: They're in the finals. Why don't we do the same

818
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 7: thing for the Bucks? Like what we all came into

819
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 7: the playoffs skeptical of the Bucks from all that we've

820
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 7: seen in the last few years. What is it that

821
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 7: we've seen that that has changed our minds? I think

822
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 7: it's that. Well, they're in the finals now. They made

823
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 7: to the finals, but they beat a bad Heat team

824
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 7: that we crapped on all year long. They trailed a

825
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 7: one man Nets team missing two of their superstars. They

826
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 7: lost to not Trey Young. And we're two to two

827
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 7: to the Atlanta Hawks, who we didn't even know if

828
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 7: we're going to be a playoff team for chunk of

829
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 7: the season, Like what what have they proven to us?

830
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 7: Why why should we get Like to me, I went

831
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 7: into the conference finals being like, all right, the Bucks

832
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 7: pulled through against the Nets. They won those last two games.

833
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:38,399
Speaker 7: They had to do it, it was all on the line.

834
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 7: They pulled through and now I'm Bucks over Suns. And

835
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 7: then Game one happened and they laid an absolute egg.

836
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:49,360
Speaker 4: And they still six, Like they didn't even need to

837
00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 4: have to go seven late. If you just like take

838
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 4: the tenth that you're getting too much into, here's the thing,

839
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 4: the end.

840
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 1: This is what I've been saying about the Bucks.

841
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 4: The end result doesn't feel like what the end result is.

842
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 4: That's that's our problem, is like we have this thing

843
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:08,720
Speaker 4: of like how it feels to watch the Bucks doesn't

844
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:09,720
Speaker 4: match the result.

845
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 1: But that's also like a really key part.

846
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 4: If we're gonna try and get an idea of where

847
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:19,799
Speaker 4: the value is, then we have to remove how it

848
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 4: feels watching the Bucks. And we got to be like, okay,

849
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 4: like this is the this is the start to to

850
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 4: my Bucks column I am currently writing.

851
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 1: It hasn't been pretty pretty.

852
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,879
Speaker 4: In fact, it's been fucking ugly, but the Milwaukee Bucks

853
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:33,760
Speaker 4: are in the finals.

854
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 6: I think the example that you gave on Twitter was

855
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 6: the two thousand and eight Celtics. They struggled with everybody.

856
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:43,360
Speaker 6: They went seven with Zaza Pachuli in the Hawks. They

857
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 6: went seven with so many different teams and they have

858
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 6: all this Hall of Fame talent, but at the end

859
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 6: of the day, they got it done. And I'm kind

860
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 6: of with you in that regard, and I think their

861
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:57,240
Speaker 6: defense has been keeping them in these situations and they've

862
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,680
Speaker 6: had the offense to be able to pull through when

863
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 6: it so I do think we have to give them

864
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 6: some credit in it in that regard.

865
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 3: Does that make sense, Brendan.

866
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 2: It does, It does make sense, But I don't know.

867
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 7: Just but it doesn't.

868
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 1: You're like, it doesn't feel well.

869
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean the thing you were just saying, Matt

870
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,800
Speaker 7: about the Bucks is that's how that's that's how I felt.

871
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 7: I kept, you know, I would not see the Bucks

872
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 7: play for a week or two. This has been for

873
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 7: years now. I'd not see them play a couple, you know,

874
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 7: miss some games, and I look at the numbers and

875
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,520
Speaker 7: be like, man, the Bucks are amazing. They're smashing everyone

876
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 7: in the regular season. They have this incredible defense and

877
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:37,760
Speaker 7: Giannie is crushing and then you watch the game and you're.

878
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 1: Like, no, I disagree. I don't agree.

879
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 4: I think I think they were dominant the last two

880
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:44,880
Speaker 4: years in the regular season.

881
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,399
Speaker 2: No, they were. They were, but then you watch it.

882
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 4: And when I watched it, when I watched it, they

883
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 4: looked amazing at times, like there were games where they

884
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 4: would just I mean even the season those games versus

885
00:42:55,760 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 4: the Nets and the regular season, like and that was

886
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 4: with two of the Stars, Like the Bucks came out

887
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 4: and just smack them, like they would look awesome, and

888
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 4: then they would run up against the wrong matchup in

889
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 4: the playoffs and then they would look inept and this

890
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 4: is what's different about this year.

891
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 1: And I kind of thought, I was kind of curious.

892
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 4: This is what the reason I was like like reticently

893
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 4: tucking some money away on the Bucks, especially as they

894
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 4: got further and further like plus three seventy five and

895
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 4: higher to when the East as the season went on,

896
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 4: was because I was like, they're not as flashy, they're

897
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 4: not as impressive, but they're a lot harder to beat,

898
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:34,240
Speaker 4: Like they just are able to do more stuff.

899
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 2: Well they're not. Really. That's the Drew Holiday thing too.

900
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 7: That's like that's the floor rays that we got from

901
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 7: Bledsoe to Holiday. That was that exact thing, was like,

902
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 7: just just take some of the badness off of the table,

903
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 7: not that Eric Bledsoe is bad, just take away some

904
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,479
Speaker 7: of the outs that other teams had and just raise

905
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:55,839
Speaker 7: the floor and like, really, that's that's the playoffs. That's

906
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:57,839
Speaker 7: the theme of the playoffs this year? Do you have

907
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 7: a high floor and a lot of depth because everyone

908
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:03,360
Speaker 7: else is losing guys and losing bodies and losing games,

909
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 7: and if you can just keep that high floor and

910
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 7: stick around, you might get more chances. And I feel

911
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 7: like like that's again not to take away from all

912
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 7: the Sons and Bucks have done, but they've kind of

913
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,640
Speaker 7: kept a high floor and stuck around, and here we are.

914
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 7: Someone needs to stick around four more wins and then

915
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:19,479
Speaker 7: they're the champions. That's getting off.

916
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:22,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's the thing is, like, you know,

917
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 4: they don't have to they don't have to make you

918
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 4: feel good. They just got to score more points than

919
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 4: the Suns four times.

920
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:32,680
Speaker 3: That's it.

921
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 2: Yeah.

922
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 6: I mean to me that it just doesn't seem I

923
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 6: struggle with it when I look at them, Like, to me,

924
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 6: I see six guys who can realistically play, you know,

925
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 6: like Ken Brent Forbes actually stay on the floor in

926
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 6: this series.

927
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 3: Do you really want? You think? So?

928
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 2: I think?

929
00:44:53,800 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 3: Wow? See I assume that he was just gonna get him.

930
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 6: I mean, because Chris Paul and Devin Book is out there, like,

931
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 6: do you I don't want I don't want him guarding them.

932
00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 4: Briton Brnn's not guarding them. I don't think Jeff t

933
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 4: can play. Those minutes are gonna be a fucking disaster.

934
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 4: I'll just Buzz's gonna play him and everyone's gonna be

935
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 4: like why, Although Jeff Tige won them game six, so

936
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 4: he did. Props to my guy, Jeff Tig, but like,

937
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 4: I don't think Jeff t can play. But like, look,

938
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 4: any anytime that Brind's on the floor, if Conton's on

939
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:31,320
Speaker 4: the court, then Contan's taken Paul and you can say, like,

940
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 4: well that's a bad matchup.

941
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:33,720
Speaker 1: Fine, but it's not as bad as Brynn.

942
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 4: They're gonna hide brentn On, whoever the third shooter is,

943
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 4: Cam Johnson campaign whoever that guy is, that that's where

944
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:40,399
Speaker 4: he's gonna be. And if you're like, well they'll force

945
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 4: them into the action, you can, but the Sons don't

946
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 4: like the The Sons won't run a ton of that,

947
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:49,319
Speaker 4: and if they do, it's like you're talking about so

948
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:52,239
Speaker 4: few possessions where Brin's gonna have to guard any sort

949
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 4: of like this is the big thing. You have to

950
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 4: buy some minutes. You have to, you know, because like

951
00:45:58,239 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 4: on the other hand, it's like.

952
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 1: Do I want to do. I want campaign guarding Drew Holliday.

953
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:03,719
Speaker 1: Is that is that a thing I want?

954
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 4: Because I don't think I want that, Like, you know,

955
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 4: do I want Cam Johnson guarding Kurs Middleton?

956
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 1: I don't like Cam's been great. But these guys are

957
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:16,359
Speaker 1: about to be pressured in a whole other way. Because

958
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 1: the Clippers were mostly.

959
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 4: Spot up shooters in Paul George right, like, they didn't

960
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 4: have that other guy that could apply pressure. The Bucks

961
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 4: at full strength when they get Janis back, especially, have

962
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 4: three guys that can ply apply pressure and will scare

963
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 4: the shit out of you defensively, I.

964
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,280
Speaker 6: Think, I mean, but I think we have to handicap

965
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 6: Janis as well. I mean, how can we assume that

966
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 6: this is gonna be Yannis at On? I'm cock like,

967
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 6: we have to assume that Giannis is gonna be seventy

968
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 6: percent of himself like this.

969
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 1: Let's ask that question.

970
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 4: So my understanding of the hyper extension, it's very painful

971
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 4: in the beginning.

972
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 1: It takes a few days for you to get over it.

973
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 1: But that it's not like I don't think this is

974
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 1: the same as a hamstring string.

975
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 2: No, for sure, it's not.

976
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 6: But I think you have to look at the look

977
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 6: at how Giannis plays basketball. This is not a guy

978
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 6: who can you know, take a mid range jump shots

979
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 6: or it can hit three consistently. He has to drop

980
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 6: to the basket and he has to use his energy.

981
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:18,839
Speaker 6: He like, I mean you talk about this all the time.

982
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 6: I think you mentioned it on the last podcast. Yiannis

983
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 6: will pull the ball back and reset. All of that

984
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 6: requires his legs to be there. And if it's not there,

985
00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 6: how can we, you know, handicap this matchup as if

986
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:33,920
Speaker 6: he's Janio two tome MVP.

987
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 1: Well you don't think that he's good anyway, Rahiems, So

988
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: what does it matter?

989
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 7: I'm with through him on this, Like I always wanting

990
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 7: to bring that up too, Like I feel like we

991
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 7: look at Yanni's and we think of this as binary,

992
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,399
Speaker 7: like either he's out or we get Yanni's two time

993
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:51,919
Speaker 7: MVP back, And like I don't think we're getting that.

994
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 7: I don't know any reasonable belief why, Like we all

995
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:56,840
Speaker 7: none of.

996
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 2: Us are doctors, but we all saw that and thought

997
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 2: he was out for a long time.

998
00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 7: Like none of us even thought he was gonna be

999
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 7: doubtful for Game five, that he'd even like nobody and

1000
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 7: not just us, but like the guys on TV the

1001
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 7: next day, the guys talking that night, nobody thought we'd

1002
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 7: see him again in these playoffs. I hope we get

1003
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 7: to see him. It looks like we might get to

1004
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:18,959
Speaker 7: see him, But that doesn't mean we get to see

1005
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:22,359
Speaker 7: the two time MVP Jannis, who we still don't even

1006
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:25,320
Speaker 7: really know if he can be that version of himself

1007
00:48:25,400 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 7: at this highest level anyways, because we still haven't quite

1008
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,760
Speaker 7: seen that version consistent.

1009
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:31,320
Speaker 2: Enough in the playoffs.

1010
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 7: But but I wonder too, Yeah, when you know, let's

1011
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 7: think about very different players. But I think about like

1012
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 7: Russell Westbrook, when Wes Westbrook picks up that knee injury

1013
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:45,000
Speaker 7: and doesn't have the jumper, and now that explosive athleticism

1014
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,879
Speaker 7: isn't quite the same explosive, and like that's his game,

1015
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 7: that's the whole thing, and then he just craters without that,

1016
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 7: and I don't think, like, you're honest again, different player,

1017
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 7: but the knee hurt is the knee that he like

1018
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 7: pushes off when he does the euro step and and

1019
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 7: gets the rim a lot, like I think, I think, honestly,

1020
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 7: and this sounds crazy, but I honestly think if Jannis

1021
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 7: comes back and is like seventy percent or whatever percent

1022
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 7: who knows, Like.

1023
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:12,839
Speaker 2: I think it could actually clog things up a little bit.

1024
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:15,439
Speaker 7: Like if he's not the honest we think, and now

1025
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 7: suddenly he's just kind of another center in the way

1026
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:20,520
Speaker 7: and not doing is his stuff.

1027
00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 1: That's I think that's actually a really good point.

1028
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 4: I think the you know, less than seventy percent a

1029
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 4: bad Giannis is going to maybe even more of a

1030
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 4: hindrance than an advantage. I'm just gonna say this, and

1031
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 4: I apologize for it again.

1032
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 1: Broughte an entire thing about how much I love Chris

1033
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 1: Paul and I want good things for him, and he's

1034
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 1: the point. Guy, If you guys are gonna go down this.

1035
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:40,400
Speaker 4: Road, you have to accept the fact that there's a

1036
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 4: pretty high likely hi, that Chris Paul is going to

1037
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 4: suffer an injury.

1038
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:46,239
Speaker 1: Again, there's at least like a decent poteah, Like, that's

1039
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 1: that's something.

1040
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 3: I've thought, I've thought about.

1041
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, I tweeted just like an hour ago. We are

1042
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:53,759
Speaker 7: under twenty four hours from the NBA Finals and Chris

1043
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 7: Paul is the betting favorite to win the finals.

1044
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 2: MVP, and I knock on all.

1045
00:49:58,560 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 7: The word, but stay if the box be the Suns

1046
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:05,439
Speaker 7: far and square, so be it. But please God, let

1047
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:10,919
Speaker 7: Chris Paul get his shot this series all the way through, all.

1048
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:12,840
Speaker 1: Right, So let's talk about let's talk about numbers. So

1049
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:15,759
Speaker 1: here's about betting. Let's let's get some value here. Let's

1050
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 1: find out where we want, where we want to be

1051
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:17,319
Speaker 1: on this.

1052
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 3: I've already put bets in.

1053
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 1: Love love love, love love.

1054
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:28,319
Speaker 4: The Suns in game one, more rests, more time, No

1055
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:33,839
Speaker 4: Yannice tougher opponent hyped arena, better team the works, like.

1056
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 1: I just as good.

1057
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 4: I think that the usually we talked a lot about

1058
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:39,800
Speaker 4: like the drop off without the star, and like the

1059
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 4: Bucks kind of showed like that other effect, right, like

1060
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:46,280
Speaker 4: they played more free and more they've played more open

1061
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 4: without without Yannis, and I said that they would on

1062
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 4: heat check, and somebody on this panel disagree with me,

1063
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 4: and so like when we talk about this game, though,

1064
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 4: I think that like the the emotional wearoff from the

1065
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 4: conference finals, doing it for yann with whatever is gone

1066
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 4: and now you just got to try and beat those

1067
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 4: Suns in their own house, hyped up game one, I

1068
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:11,000
Speaker 4: don't think the value is on the Bucks now at all.

1069
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 4: I also don't think the value is on the suns.

1070
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 4: This thing is juiced, gents, it is juiced. We're at

1071
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 4: one ninety minus one. It opened minus one thirty at

1072
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 4: a certain book in the desert, and it is now

1073
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:30,920
Speaker 4: minus one ninety at bet MGM.

1074
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:34,839
Speaker 1: For me, like, I do not.

1075
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 4: Think that there's good value when you're looking at a

1076
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 4: sixty five percent implied probability. Uh, the no juice number

1077
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:46,280
Speaker 4: on this is closer to sixty two and a half percent.

1078
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 4: I don't want this number at anything below. I only

1079
00:51:52,080 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 4: think anything over if you have to take it longer

1080
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 4: than then minus one thirty for the suns. I don't

1081
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 4: want it, like, I don't. I don't want to lay

1082
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:03,600
Speaker 4: one thirty or more on the suns. That's like my

1083
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:04,359
Speaker 4: dividing line.

1084
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:06,840
Speaker 6: I say, wait, wait, wait, wait, you don't want to

1085
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 6: lay one thirty on the suns.

1086
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 1: I don't why.

1087
00:52:11,840 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 4: I don't think that the implyed probability is good enough.

1088
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 4: I want like for me? Okay, so like that's fifty six.

1089
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:20,400
Speaker 2: So I want it.

1090
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 1: Let's see where going it? I want it?

1091
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 4: Uh one, I don't want I one thirty. I would

1092
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 4: take it at one fifty is my dividing line.

1093
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 6: Okay, I'm about to say yeah, one thirty is insane,

1094
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 6: Like I mean with adding home court with no Yiannis,

1095
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 6: I mean a team coming off you know, they're basically

1096
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:39,240
Speaker 6: playing six guys.

1097
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 3: They don't have Divencenzo.

1098
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, but even then, man, even but even then, man

1099
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:48,759
Speaker 4: Like again, the Bucks are really good, like they're just

1100
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 4: like you could list all this stuff that you want.

1101
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 4: The Bucks are a really great team.

1102
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 3: But see, I respect it, but at one thirty, I'm

1103
00:52:57,080 --> 00:52:57,840
Speaker 3: willing to ship it.

1104
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:00,879
Speaker 4: That's fine, but we're it doesn't matter because we're talking

1105
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:03,840
Speaker 4: about Yeah.

1106
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 7: We're saying that, and I agree with you. I'm I'm

1107
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:09,719
Speaker 7: definitely in on Suns game one. So if you are

1108
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,759
Speaker 7: totally in on Sun's game one, now you only need

1109
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:16,120
Speaker 7: to win three out of six games, and now, like like,

1110
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 7: don't we like that line shifts even further. So if

1111
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 7: you're giving Phoenix game one confidently and you only have

1112
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:24,279
Speaker 7: to get three out of six, then I think even

1113
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 7: your minus one ninety is still a good number for you.

1114
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:27,560
Speaker 2: If you're that's your game.

1115
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 1: I don't like it. I think that's too narrow.

1116
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 4: Now what I did take, I like that they group

1117
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:38,480
Speaker 4: these bet MGM's got Suns four to two or four

1118
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 4: to three at plus one point fifty, So Sons win,

1119
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:44,960
Speaker 4: they don't win a sleep, they don't.

1120
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 1: Win in five. Yeah, and I'm getting and I got

1121
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 1: a plus number on it.

1122
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 3: I like that.

1123
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:53,560
Speaker 7: I looked at that as well, because I mean, I

1124
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:56,200
Speaker 7: think it sounds like we're all leaning Suns and it

1125
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:58,960
Speaker 7: sounds like we're all leaning something like Sons and six.

1126
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 2: That's a world close out.

1127
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 7: But that's what the Sons have done I think in

1128
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 7: all three series now, right, three road closeouts. So it's

1129
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 7: not a thing that they can't do. For me, though,

1130
00:54:08,640 --> 00:54:10,920
Speaker 7: I'm looking, Okay, so what what do I like for

1131
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 7: the series? And if I'm thinking about Sons and six,

1132
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:17,360
Speaker 7: what's my next most likely outcome for me?

1133
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 2: Right now?

1134
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 7: My next most likely outcome is not Suns and seven.

1135
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:24,439
Speaker 7: It's Sons in five. And then I'm stuck between those

1136
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 7: two and I don't like it anymore.

1137
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:30,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just I think if if you go down,

1138
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:32,319
Speaker 4: I think this is a dangerous rabbit hole where you

1139
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:36,279
Speaker 4: start to get too hyped on your own analysis. Right,

1140
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 4: and like that, you mentioned the Hawks series Brandon the

1141
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 4: year all like they went six games with the Hawks,

1142
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 4: Like this is the thing is these teams got to

1143
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 4: the conference finals, they're gonna win two games. Like, I

1144
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:51,399
Speaker 4: am not surprised the Sun that the Hawks won one

1145
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:51,919
Speaker 4: of those games.

1146
00:54:51,960 --> 00:54:54,440
Speaker 1: It's just like a it was, it was a random thing.

1147
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:57,240
Speaker 4: It was just like the Sun shot the or the

1148
00:54:57,280 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 4: Hawks shot the ever loving lights out. They have a

1149
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:01,479
Speaker 4: to do it and the game Tray Young was out,

1150
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 4: the emotional boost they were at home, et cetera, et cetera.

1151
00:55:04,280 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 4: Like Bucks get to a game four, right and they

1152
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:12,239
Speaker 4: you know, they they split in Phoenix and it's a

1153
00:55:12,280 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 4: game four and they're down to one and just like

1154
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:19,280
Speaker 4: Middleton goes supernova and you're like, the Sun's outplayed them.

1155
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:21,520
Speaker 4: Part of my thinking is, I do think the Bucks

1156
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:23,319
Speaker 4: are gonna get one of the first two, and I

1157
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:25,399
Speaker 4: think at that point I can get a much better

1158
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,440
Speaker 4: price on the Suns. I think the worst value on

1159
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:30,759
Speaker 4: the Suns is right now. I don't think you're gonna

1160
00:55:30,760 --> 00:55:32,760
Speaker 4: get a better number. That's my opinion.

1161
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:35,919
Speaker 7: I feel like though you're making a very narrow path

1162
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:38,279
Speaker 7: for the series because you're very confident that the Suns

1163
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,759
Speaker 7: are gonna win game one, and but you think that

1164
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:42,399
Speaker 7: the Bucks are gonna get one of the first two,

1165
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:44,799
Speaker 7: which means that you're also equally confident the Bucks win

1166
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 7: Game two and then like it's It's just it's a

1167
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:51,160
Speaker 7: very specific path for how things have to go in

1168
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 7: the well.

1169
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 4: I would if not for my dream brand, and I

1170
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 4: would have gone eight to one on sides in the

1171
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:55,480
Speaker 4: Conference finals.

1172
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,800
Speaker 2: Oh so the way that I would play.

1173
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:03,000
Speaker 7: So my response to your bet, you know, bet MGM

1174
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:06,600
Speaker 7: has the two together the Sons in six or seven,

1175
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:09,560
Speaker 7: since I don't like that as much. My way that

1176
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 7: I would play Sons minus one point five in the series,

1177
00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:16,600
Speaker 7: which means that the Suns win and not seven. Anything

1178
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 7: less than that is plus one twenty So that to

1179
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 7: me would be my bet. I don't think they need

1180
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 7: to go seven on it if it the longer this

1181
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 7: series goes the less, I like the Suns because I

1182
00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:30,400
Speaker 7: think it's going long because Giannis is back and playing

1183
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 7: effective basketball at some point, So that means I get

1184
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:37,120
Speaker 7: them in six and then minus two point five, So

1185
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:40,359
Speaker 7: that Sun's winning in five or less is plus two

1186
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 7: twenty five. So then if you want you play the

1187
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 7: minus one point five, you sprinkle a little extra on

1188
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:48,520
Speaker 7: the minus two point five. I'm not even sure you

1189
00:56:48,520 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 7: need to do that, though, because you can just keep

1190
00:56:50,640 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 7: it at the plus one twenty and now you're getting

1191
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 7: You're getting sons at plus odds just to not win

1192
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 7: in seven. And if you do really think that they like,

1193
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:01,440
Speaker 7: if you watch the first couple of games, you're like, man, yeah,

1194
00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 7: they really have this matchup, or Giannis really is back

1195
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:06,799
Speaker 7: but not feeling it. Now you can just bat one

1196
00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:09,799
Speaker 7: of those road money lines and like, you don't need

1197
00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:11,879
Speaker 7: to play the two twenty five, you can just play

1198
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:14,080
Speaker 7: the game instead. So I don't think that I like

1199
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:16,360
Speaker 7: the double play that way. I do think I like

1200
00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:18,400
Speaker 7: the Sun's minus one point series.

1201
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 4: Though, all right, rahiem, we've gone through this entire thing.

1202
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:24,760
Speaker 4: You haven't put bets down. Are you just gonna go

1203
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 4: ahead and lay the one ninety and be done with it?

1204
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 6: I think I am, because I think if I'm gonna

1205
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 6: assume that the Sun's win game one then and Giannis

1206
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 6: is gonna come back into like game three, I think

1207
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 6: I have an advantage there and I can, you know,

1208
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 6: I put myself in a position to where I can

1209
00:57:46,680 --> 00:57:47,520
Speaker 6: get off of it later.

1210
00:57:47,520 --> 00:57:48,840
Speaker 3: So I think I'm gonna lay the one ninety.

1211
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:52,400
Speaker 4: I like that, Okay, I don't think that you're gonna

1212
00:57:52,400 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 4: get the best of the number and you can get that,

1213
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 4: you can get you can double down later, right like

1214
00:57:57,320 --> 00:57:58,959
Speaker 4: you can take the one ninety now and then add

1215
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:01,840
Speaker 4: on to it if you get some ones at you know,

1216
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 4: one thirty like we talked about or better after game two,

1217
00:58:06,560 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 4: right like, yeah, if we expect the Suns, so this

1218
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 4: is part of is like, if we expect the Suns

1219
00:58:12,320 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 4: to win, then I think the number on the Bucks

1220
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:18,760
Speaker 4: is going to be pretty healthy in game two, So

1221
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:20,840
Speaker 4: we won't we won't talk before them before now.

1222
00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 6: But Matt, the question I ask for you, do you

1223
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,600
Speaker 6: think this series is tattooed to at any point?

1224
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 2: It's only really the one point.

1225
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,400
Speaker 6: I mean, I mean, yeah, at one point. I'm asking

1226
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:34,040
Speaker 6: that because and he means.

1227
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 4: Any way, do I think yeah, regardless of how I

1228
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 4: get there, pedantic mother?

1229
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:48,440
Speaker 1: Uh, I think I'm not certain.

1230
00:58:49,560 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 4: Like I can see it being three to one Sons,

1231
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:57,920
Speaker 4: like we just saw Sons three to one lose Game five,

1232
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:00,240
Speaker 4: right like.

1233
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 1: We just saw it.

1234
00:59:04,880 --> 00:59:08,240
Speaker 4: The I'll say this, the floors on these teams are

1235
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 4: not exceptionally high. When the Suns don't look good, they

1236
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 4: don't look good, Brandon.

1237
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 7: Like the offenses are not exceptionally high, is what I

1238
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:22,680
Speaker 7: would say to him end that the defenses have been

1239
00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 7: so good in the playoffs. I think the floor overall

1240
00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:27,360
Speaker 7: is high offenses the problem.

1241
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:31,760
Speaker 4: That's fair, that's fair that the offenses the offenses floor

1242
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 4: are really I agree that. So again, I think this

1243
00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:40,000
Speaker 4: leads us to I think Suns in the under is

1244
00:59:40,000 --> 00:59:40,600
Speaker 4: the play for game.

1245
00:59:40,680 --> 00:59:42,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I think you nailed it with the under.

1246
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:44,520
Speaker 6: And then when you look at the fact that Chris

1247
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:47,240
Speaker 6: Paul has always paid us played a slow paced game

1248
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 6: and you have another team in the.

1249
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 3: Bucks who struggle to shoot the ball, I think that

1250
00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:53,120
Speaker 3: lends itself to under.

1251
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:55,800
Speaker 6: Like I think that's probably the sharpest play that's been

1252
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:58,040
Speaker 6: on his podcast. I gotta give that up to you, met,

1253
00:59:58,120 --> 01:00:00,919
Speaker 6: because I wasn't even thinking of So.

1254
01:00:00,680 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 7: So, what do you guys think about in our slack

1255
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 7: our guy at Action iWork. Joe Delera brought up at

1256
01:00:06,280 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 7: bet MGM, you can play the Bucks to win the

1257
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:12,200
Speaker 7: series after trailing at any point in the series plus

1258
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:16,000
Speaker 7: five hundred. Right now, that seems like a very solid

1259
01:00:16,040 --> 01:00:18,560
Speaker 7: play to me, because I think we're all agreeing that

1260
01:00:18,640 --> 01:00:21,240
Speaker 7: even if we like the Suns, the Bucks are certainly live,

1261
01:00:21,480 --> 01:00:24,880
Speaker 7: certainly have a chance to win this thing, and like,

1262
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 7: how do the Bucks win the series without trailing? They

1263
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:30,240
Speaker 7: win game one, but they're not gonna sweep the two

1264
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 7: Phoenix games. So now it's one to one, and then

1265
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:34,400
Speaker 7: they go home and they win again, so they're up

1266
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:37,160
Speaker 7: two to one, and then like that, like that's it.

1267
01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 7: That's the roadmap is they got to win game one

1268
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:42,880
Speaker 7: and they got to win game three. Otherwise, like they

1269
01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:46,320
Speaker 7: lose tomorrow, they're trailing in the series, they lose, you know,

1270
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 7: in game three or like there's so many especially because

1271
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:54,640
Speaker 7: like we said, Matt, we're assuming that Giannis is probably

1272
01:00:54,680 --> 01:00:57,560
Speaker 7: missing these first couple of games. Like that sets up

1273
01:00:57,600 --> 01:01:00,200
Speaker 7: perfectly for the Bucks to trail a little bit and

1274
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:03,600
Speaker 7: then Jannis comes back and whatever version of him pushes

1275
01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 7: them over the finish line plus five hundred compared to

1276
01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 7: the odds that we're getting on just a Bucks winning

1277
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:12,920
Speaker 7: the series. Like I feel like, however the Bucks would win,

1278
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:18,040
Speaker 7: it would be coming from trailing. Otherwise it's it basically

1279
01:01:18,120 --> 01:01:19,760
Speaker 7: means that they have to win game one for that

1280
01:01:20,200 --> 01:01:22,440
Speaker 7: for that bet to not feel good to me, And

1281
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:25,080
Speaker 7: I think it's a good I think it's a good

1282
01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:29,680
Speaker 7: insurance bet if you, especially if you're someone we've had

1283
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:31,960
Speaker 7: some guys on Twitter reaching out to us with their

1284
01:01:32,000 --> 01:01:35,440
Speaker 7: their big Phoenix futures, you know, guys with like sixty

1285
01:01:35,440 --> 01:01:36,880
Speaker 7: to one and things like that.

1286
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:40,960
Speaker 2: Raheem never likes to hedge, never, ever, ever, ever.

1287
01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:44,200
Speaker 7: But if you're going to hedge the plus five hundred

1288
01:01:44,240 --> 01:01:46,120
Speaker 7: for the Bucks to win the series after trailing at

1289
01:01:46,120 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 7: any point, seems like like a decent spot to consider

1290
01:01:49,560 --> 01:01:52,520
Speaker 7: doing something like that, because like, if the Suns do

1291
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 7: win Game one, the Bucks aren't gonna be plus five hundred.

1292
01:01:54,840 --> 01:02:00,000
Speaker 7: It's not gonna hit that long of an odds, right, Yeah, Yeah,

1293
01:02:00,000 --> 01:02:00,400
Speaker 7: I don't think.

1294
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:02,959
Speaker 1: I don't think that's a bad play at all.

1295
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 4: I think that that's I think there's probably those props

1296
01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:10,120
Speaker 4: are are interesting at least. I think it's weird because

1297
01:02:10,120 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 4: it just you. I started to worry about, like are

1298
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:14,280
Speaker 4: you getting too narrow? Are you limiting yourself? Like what

1299
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:16,640
Speaker 4: what's the value there? But I do think that there's.

1300
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:19,200
Speaker 3: Some I do I don't.

1301
01:02:20,480 --> 01:02:22,360
Speaker 6: I don't like to box myself in a quarter in

1302
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:26,080
Speaker 6: that way because I think if you they dropped the

1303
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:28,920
Speaker 6: first two games, that's that's about the that's about the

1304
01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 6: price it would be, and then you.

1305
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 1: Were like a Mormon, you only want missionary.

1306
01:02:33,560 --> 01:02:39,160
Speaker 4: It's just just straight up sides and totals for Rye Palmer,

1307
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 4: meat and potatoes.

1308
01:02:42,320 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 6: I mean, I just think I think you bock this.

1309
01:02:44,960 --> 01:02:47,800
Speaker 6: I mean there's things I like, Like I called, you know,

1310
01:02:47,880 --> 01:02:50,640
Speaker 6: Chris Paul forty two to one to win the MVP

1311
01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:51,720
Speaker 6: a couple of weeks ago.

1312
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:54,320
Speaker 3: So it's just like I have to really.

1313
01:02:54,240 --> 01:02:56,040
Speaker 6: If I'm gonna step out of that box, I gotta be.

1314
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:56,920
Speaker 3: Getting something big.

1315
01:02:57,120 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 6: But I think in this situation, you bock yourself in

1316
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:03,439
Speaker 6: a hole before you even get a chance to even

1317
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:04,800
Speaker 6: see the series play out.

1318
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:07,760
Speaker 3: Like it's just I just I don't know. I struggle

1319
01:03:07,760 --> 01:03:08,040
Speaker 3: with it.

1320
01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:11,600
Speaker 6: If if I knew that Gianni Santankupo was coming back,

1321
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 6: he's going to be healthy, I'm taking that all day.

1322
01:03:15,360 --> 01:03:16,600
Speaker 3: But I don't want to play. I don't want to

1323
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 3: play the doctor.

1324
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:20,440
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1325
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 7: Another thing that uh some props that bet MGM has

1326
01:03:24,520 --> 01:03:27,400
Speaker 7: up is you can bet on you know, I'm the

1327
01:03:27,400 --> 01:03:30,880
Speaker 7: props guy here on our podcast and Action Network. They've

1328
01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:33,400
Speaker 7: got a bunch of player props up you can bet

1329
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,920
Speaker 7: on like over under total points for the series. And

1330
01:03:36,920 --> 01:03:39,400
Speaker 7: that one's interesting because you get to kind of factor

1331
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 7: in how long do I think the series is going

1332
01:03:41,600 --> 01:03:43,560
Speaker 7: to go, and how well do I think this player

1333
01:03:43,600 --> 01:03:45,960
Speaker 7: is gonna play? So you could of course there's no

1334
01:03:46,000 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 7: Giannis numbers up because they wouldn't put that up. We

1335
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:51,360
Speaker 7: don't know what's happening with them. But for example, Chris

1336
01:03:51,360 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 7: Middleton over under forty three and a half rebounds for

1337
01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:57,320
Speaker 7: the series. So if you like the Bucks, if you

1338
01:03:57,480 --> 01:03:59,240
Speaker 7: like the Bucks in the series, or even like the

1339
01:03:59,240 --> 01:04:02,120
Speaker 7: Bucks to can and hang around in the series, you

1340
01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:05,040
Speaker 7: have to like them long. Like you're not picking the

1341
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:07,360
Speaker 7: Bucks to win four or five, especially if we don't

1342
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 7: think Gianns is gonna play. So if you like the Bucks,

1343
01:04:10,520 --> 01:04:13,880
Speaker 7: you probably think Middleton's gonna have a good series. Middleton's

1344
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:18,080
Speaker 7: gonna play huge minutes. He's averaging eight rebounds a game

1345
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:20,880
Speaker 7: in the playoffs and now like he could get there

1346
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:23,040
Speaker 7: in five games. Even if the Bucks lose in five,

1347
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:26,120
Speaker 7: he might get to forty four rebounds. But if you

1348
01:04:26,200 --> 01:04:28,040
Speaker 7: like the Bucks, you figure that you're probably getting a

1349
01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:31,720
Speaker 7: game six or game seven, and like some of the

1350
01:04:31,760 --> 01:04:34,200
Speaker 7: props are very playable at bet MGM.

1351
01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:37,640
Speaker 2: If you have a good feel for I think this.

1352
01:04:37,600 --> 01:04:40,960
Speaker 7: Series goes long, or I feel like this series goes short,

1353
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:43,840
Speaker 7: like the same way when when you do like a

1354
01:04:43,960 --> 01:04:46,560
Speaker 7: one game parlay and put some of the things together

1355
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:48,600
Speaker 7: and you kind of have to build the narrative and say, Okay,

1356
01:04:49,280 --> 01:04:51,920
Speaker 7: here's the story that I think happens in this game,

1357
01:04:52,280 --> 01:04:55,080
Speaker 7: and here's what that means for this player, same way

1358
01:04:55,080 --> 01:04:56,480
Speaker 7: you would do it on a Super Bowl bet.

1359
01:04:56,760 --> 01:04:57,600
Speaker 2: I think you can do.

1360
01:04:57,600 --> 01:05:00,360
Speaker 7: That with some of these season long props here, and

1361
01:05:01,000 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 7: if you feel like you have a narrative or a

1362
01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:04,600
Speaker 7: story that you're that you're counting on, I think that

1363
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 7: there's some serious advantages there. Like I think Middleton if

1364
01:05:08,560 --> 01:05:10,640
Speaker 7: the if the series goes long, Middleton could have like

1365
01:05:10,720 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 7: sixty rebounds or something, and so some of those numbers

1366
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:16,360
Speaker 7: I think have real value to them.

1367
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:19,960
Speaker 4: Mid is plus six hundred Drew Holiday plus a fifty

1368
01:05:19,960 --> 01:05:24,080
Speaker 4: You guys got finals MVP takes?

1369
01:05:24,880 --> 01:05:27,880
Speaker 7: Yeah, My my finals MVP take is, I don't feel

1370
01:05:27,920 --> 01:05:30,200
Speaker 7: like there's a lot of great value right now. Do

1371
01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:33,440
Speaker 7: we know, well, these odds reopen again each game, like

1372
01:05:33,480 --> 01:05:38,600
Speaker 7: well we'll okay. So my my take then is, uh,

1373
01:05:38,720 --> 01:05:40,400
Speaker 7: Joannice is three fifty right now?

1374
01:05:40,440 --> 01:05:46,040
Speaker 1: Right, yes, that it's four fifty for he's going up.

1375
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:52,640
Speaker 7: Okay, he's so so my take so I already have

1376
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:56,800
Speaker 7: Chris Middleton at twenty seven to one from or twenty

1377
01:05:56,840 --> 01:05:59,520
Speaker 7: seven hundred from a few weeks ago, and I had

1378
01:05:59,560 --> 01:06:01,840
Speaker 7: Chris Paul twelve to one. So I'm not playing any

1379
01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 7: other finals MVP bets. I've got my two. I've got

1380
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:06,360
Speaker 7: two great tickets in already. I'm gonna write it out

1381
01:06:06,680 --> 01:06:08,920
Speaker 7: if I want to add to it. I think my

1382
01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:12,480
Speaker 7: position is nothing right now. Wait a couple of games

1383
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:16,360
Speaker 7: while the Bucks probably like the narrative sets up really

1384
01:06:16,360 --> 01:06:19,280
Speaker 7: well for Giannis. If the Bucks fall behind and he

1385
01:06:19,280 --> 01:06:22,120
Speaker 7: heroically comes back in game three and then the Bucks

1386
01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:25,400
Speaker 7: win the series. Like I know we said before, Middleton

1387
01:06:26,000 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 7: is the closer. If the Bucks are good early and

1388
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:32,320
Speaker 7: get an early game, it's probably because of Middleton, and

1389
01:06:32,360 --> 01:06:34,400
Speaker 7: now it sets up all for him. If the Bucks

1390
01:06:34,440 --> 01:06:37,360
Speaker 7: fall behind the Suns get game one, then Giannis has

1391
01:06:37,360 --> 01:06:40,240
Speaker 7: to come back and be the hero and everybody likes him.

1392
01:06:40,240 --> 01:06:42,400
Speaker 7: He's got the center of the narrative and all that stuff.

1393
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:45,360
Speaker 7: I think if he's already you know, four to one

1394
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:47,560
Speaker 7: or higher now and those odds are only going to

1395
01:06:47,600 --> 01:06:50,520
Speaker 7: go longer as he just doesn't play games, then I

1396
01:06:50,560 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 7: think that's a play that I feel really good about

1397
01:06:53,520 --> 01:06:55,280
Speaker 7: like going to game three if it looks like he's

1398
01:06:55,480 --> 01:06:58,040
Speaker 7: likely gonna play, and I don't know what the odds

1399
01:06:58,120 --> 01:07:01,080
Speaker 7: look like at that point, but if it's to zero,

1400
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:04,160
Speaker 7: then all of a sudden, the you know, the MVPs

1401
01:07:04,200 --> 01:07:06,200
Speaker 7: are gonna be all Suns guys, because they're never gonna

1402
01:07:06,200 --> 01:07:10,040
Speaker 7: give it to a loser. So I think nobody yet,

1403
01:07:10,240 --> 01:07:13,120
Speaker 7: but I like I like the long term Yiannis play

1404
01:07:13,160 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 7: a couple of games from now.

1405
01:07:14,200 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 2: What do you guys think with that angle?

1406
01:07:16,040 --> 01:07:17,680
Speaker 5: I think that I think that that's I think there's

1407
01:07:17,720 --> 01:07:19,680
Speaker 5: good value there, right, Like, yeah, I like that if

1408
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:23,280
Speaker 5: nothing else, it's like a decent hedge against like you

1409
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:25,520
Speaker 5: can put it if you want to go heavy on

1410
01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:26,480
Speaker 5: one ninety.

1411
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:28,800
Speaker 1: On minus one ninety on the Suns go back the

1412
01:07:28,840 --> 01:07:29,240
Speaker 1: other way.

1413
01:07:29,600 --> 01:07:32,919
Speaker 4: And like, the only concern I think you have there

1414
01:07:33,280 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 4: is again like if we're wrong as we're recording this,

1415
01:07:36,640 --> 01:07:38,720
Speaker 4: we're gonna be way wrong, and we're not talking to

1416
01:07:38,760 --> 01:07:39,919
Speaker 4: you guys until after game two.

1417
01:07:40,240 --> 01:07:42,120
Speaker 1: But like if the Bucks come out and win game to.

1418
01:07:42,200 --> 01:07:46,160
Speaker 4: Game one tomorrow because Middleton goes off for forty right

1419
01:07:46,480 --> 01:07:49,560
Speaker 4: then like everything changes now. It's like, look the Buck,

1420
01:07:49,680 --> 01:07:51,880
Speaker 4: the Bucks only got to win three of the next six,

1421
01:07:52,400 --> 01:07:54,800
Speaker 4: and the Bucks are going home and Giannis is gonna

1422
01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:57,960
Speaker 4: get healthy. Uh, and Chris Middleton just scored forty five

1423
01:07:58,000 --> 01:07:59,920
Speaker 4: and set the tone and became the series leader. Like

1424
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:04,400
Speaker 4: everything can change really quickly in the twenty four hours

1425
01:08:04,440 --> 01:08:08,080
Speaker 4: after we're done with this podcast. But I think from

1426
01:08:08,080 --> 01:08:10,000
Speaker 4: where we're sitting right now and when people will listen

1427
01:08:10,000 --> 01:08:11,800
Speaker 4: to this, yeah, I think that there's good value on

1428
01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:14,800
Speaker 4: that if you want, if you like playing both sides,

1429
01:08:15,000 --> 01:08:20,320
Speaker 4: which not everyone does Rahiem does not, but you like

1430
01:08:20,360 --> 01:08:22,800
Speaker 4: playing both sides like I like, like go in on

1431
01:08:23,040 --> 01:08:26,840
Speaker 4: you know, suns minus two and a half and then

1432
01:08:27,000 --> 01:08:30,479
Speaker 4: and then with a small piece on Janni's at.

1433
01:08:30,400 --> 01:08:32,040
Speaker 1: Plus five hundred. I don't think that. I think that

1434
01:08:32,040 --> 01:08:33,839
Speaker 1: there's some value that's okay.

1435
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:37,599
Speaker 6: But I have a question. I mean, because the thing

1436
01:08:37,600 --> 01:08:40,320
Speaker 6: that jumps out to me is that if the Bucks

1437
01:08:40,320 --> 01:08:42,200
Speaker 6: are gonna be If the Bucks are gonna win this series,

1438
01:08:42,200 --> 01:08:45,280
Speaker 6: it's gonna because Drew how they lock down either Devin

1439
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:48,360
Speaker 6: Book or Chris Paul And if there's no Gyiannis and

1440
01:08:48,400 --> 01:08:50,240
Speaker 6: they're gonna take one of let's just say they take

1441
01:08:50,280 --> 01:08:52,800
Speaker 6: one of these two games, I think he's gonna be

1442
01:08:52,800 --> 01:08:53,800
Speaker 6: the biggest reason why.

1443
01:08:54,320 --> 01:08:56,200
Speaker 3: So it's like, why can't he win finals MVP?

1444
01:08:58,040 --> 01:09:00,599
Speaker 7: I think you can, Like I think he's he's sixteen

1445
01:09:00,600 --> 01:09:02,160
Speaker 7: to one right now, right like I put I was

1446
01:09:02,160 --> 01:09:04,360
Speaker 7: putting that on my list as if I if I

1447
01:09:04,400 --> 01:09:07,200
Speaker 7: had to play somebody at the odds right now, I

1448
01:09:07,240 --> 01:09:09,200
Speaker 7: think that that's the bet that I would make right

1449
01:09:09,240 --> 01:09:13,240
Speaker 7: now because the reasons that you said, my problem is,

1450
01:09:14,439 --> 01:09:17,559
Speaker 7: I think, yes, if we think that that's what happens,

1451
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:20,400
Speaker 7: that he takes CP or book out of the game,

1452
01:09:20,840 --> 01:09:22,799
Speaker 7: he puts up a big line, he's been more.

1453
01:09:22,640 --> 01:09:23,479
Speaker 2: Aggressive, he scored.

1454
01:09:23,600 --> 01:09:26,360
Speaker 7: Like, if if those things happen and the Bucks win

1455
01:09:26,400 --> 01:09:29,080
Speaker 7: the series, then Drew Holliday has a good case for MVP.

1456
01:09:29,800 --> 01:09:31,960
Speaker 7: I just don't think all that happens, Like maybe he

1457
01:09:31,960 --> 01:09:34,760
Speaker 7: can do those things. But if if Drew Holiday is

1458
01:09:34,760 --> 01:09:37,000
Speaker 7: the star for the Bucks and doing all those things,

1459
01:09:37,120 --> 01:09:38,519
Speaker 7: I don't think the Bucks win the series.

1460
01:09:38,760 --> 01:09:39,559
Speaker 2: Here's the problem.

1461
01:09:39,760 --> 01:09:41,400
Speaker 4: You only got well, the only time that guys have

1462
01:09:41,439 --> 01:09:44,040
Speaker 4: won MVP for playing defense.

1463
01:09:45,080 --> 01:09:48,519
Speaker 1: Lebron Yeah yeah, And no.

1464
01:09:48,360 --> 01:09:53,600
Speaker 4: Matter how good they are versus CP or versus Giannis

1465
01:09:53,840 --> 01:09:58,960
Speaker 4: or versus whoever or Booker, it's it's not like you

1466
01:09:59,000 --> 01:10:01,479
Speaker 4: have you got to do versus Lebron even had great

1467
01:10:01,479 --> 01:10:04,720
Speaker 4: games in those series, Like you know, it was basically

1468
01:10:04,760 --> 01:10:06,799
Speaker 4: like we would give it to Lebron, but he lost.

1469
01:10:07,439 --> 01:10:11,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that that's that That.

1470
01:10:11,240 --> 01:10:12,760
Speaker 4: To me is like why you can't go in like

1471
01:10:13,160 --> 01:10:16,080
Speaker 4: defense will never get are like the voters are that

1472
01:10:16,080 --> 01:10:19,200
Speaker 4: they will will vote on this are very smart, experienced

1473
01:10:19,200 --> 01:10:27,280
Speaker 4: writers that I think deserve the vote. At the same time, like, defensively,

1474
01:10:27,280 --> 01:10:31,280
Speaker 4: you're never gonna stand out enough I think to carry it.

1475
01:10:32,080 --> 01:10:35,640
Speaker 2: So let me you sat at the top of the podcast.

1476
01:10:35,680 --> 01:10:38,760
Speaker 7: We're gonna get Brandon's irresponsibly stupid best something.

1477
01:10:38,840 --> 01:10:40,160
Speaker 1: Oh excited, let's go.

1478
01:10:40,360 --> 01:10:40,920
Speaker 2: It's time.

1479
01:10:42,000 --> 01:10:44,760
Speaker 7: Allow me to make a fool of myself. I'm going

1480
01:10:44,880 --> 01:10:48,200
Speaker 7: for the Danny Green Memorial Finals MVP. Danny did not

1481
01:10:48,320 --> 01:10:51,599
Speaker 7: win Finals MVP, but we all recall the series when

1482
01:10:51,680 --> 01:10:54,760
Speaker 7: Danny was just hitting every shot, every shot, he was

1483
01:10:54,800 --> 01:10:59,000
Speaker 7: gonna win finals MVP. If you know Tim Duncan had

1484
01:10:59,000 --> 01:11:00,640
Speaker 7: be Doun on the court to get a rebound or

1485
01:11:00,680 --> 01:11:03,840
Speaker 7: any other number of things I want to talk about it.

1486
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:08,560
Speaker 7: So you're Danny Green Memorial Finals MVP, and let me

1487
01:11:08,640 --> 01:11:10,679
Speaker 7: make the case for Jay Crowder.

1488
01:11:11,760 --> 01:11:16,240
Speaker 2: Jay Crowder, alright, let me make the case.

1489
01:11:16,360 --> 01:11:18,719
Speaker 1: Come on, I'll tell you go ahead, go ahead.

1490
01:11:18,760 --> 01:11:21,840
Speaker 7: Sorry, sorry, Look, it's gonna be one of like the

1491
01:11:21,840 --> 01:11:23,880
Speaker 7: five main guys. It's either CP or Book, it's one

1492
01:11:23,920 --> 01:11:25,679
Speaker 7: of the three bucks stars. I just I was looking

1493
01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:28,120
Speaker 7: at saying, okay, if it's not one of the five,

1494
01:11:28,360 --> 01:11:30,479
Speaker 7: who who can I turn myself into as the long shot.

1495
01:11:30,520 --> 01:11:34,960
Speaker 7: So here's the reason for Crowder. When the Suns are good,

1496
01:11:35,360 --> 01:11:38,080
Speaker 7: Crowder is almost always a big part of why they're

1497
01:11:38,120 --> 01:11:40,439
Speaker 7: really good. And that was the case with the Heat

1498
01:11:40,479 --> 01:11:42,679
Speaker 7: last year too. This is what Jay Crowder does. He's

1499
01:11:42,720 --> 01:11:46,880
Speaker 7: the bellweather of success for your team. This postseason, Crowder

1500
01:11:46,880 --> 01:11:50,240
Speaker 7: has scored doublegit points seven times. The Suns are seven

1501
01:11:50,240 --> 01:11:52,320
Speaker 7: to zero in those games with a plus one twenty

1502
01:11:52,400 --> 01:11:55,240
Speaker 7: scoring margin, He's hit three point nine to three is

1503
01:11:55,280 --> 01:11:58,040
Speaker 7: a game in those games at fifty two percent. In

1504
01:11:58,200 --> 01:12:00,479
Speaker 7: not those games, the Suns fall to five and four

1505
01:12:00,479 --> 01:12:03,439
Speaker 7: at minus sixteen, and he's twenty two percent. And we've

1506
01:12:03,479 --> 01:12:05,880
Speaker 7: all seen it, Like we all you know exactly what

1507
01:12:05,880 --> 01:12:08,960
Speaker 7: I'm talking about. The first quarter starts, Crowder hits an

1508
01:12:08,960 --> 01:12:11,320
Speaker 7: early three. He's confident, and he just starts shooting a

1509
01:12:11,400 --> 01:12:13,679
Speaker 7: rational confidence all game and he's just piling the threes

1510
01:12:13,720 --> 01:12:16,840
Speaker 7: on or he misses those first two shots and then

1511
01:12:16,840 --> 01:12:19,240
Speaker 7: he just like won't even shoot for the next two quarters.

1512
01:12:19,240 --> 01:12:21,599
Speaker 7: And Michale does the same thing but doesn't run quite

1513
01:12:21,600 --> 01:12:22,680
Speaker 7: as hot and cold.

1514
01:12:23,280 --> 01:12:24,000
Speaker 2: So we have that.

1515
01:12:24,800 --> 01:12:28,639
Speaker 7: We know that when Crowder scores, when he hits those threes,

1516
01:12:28,680 --> 01:12:32,559
Speaker 7: the suns look really good. And on top of it,

1517
01:12:33,200 --> 01:12:37,120
Speaker 7: Crowder just lit up these very Milwaukee Bucks last year

1518
01:12:37,280 --> 01:12:39,680
Speaker 7: in the playoffs to knock them out. He had a

1519
01:12:39,720 --> 01:12:43,200
Speaker 7: great series against them. He averaged fifteen six and two.

1520
01:12:43,240 --> 01:12:45,280
Speaker 7: We had four point four to three pointers a game

1521
01:12:45,400 --> 01:12:49,360
Speaker 7: in that series. And I don't know, it's a long shot,

1522
01:12:49,400 --> 01:12:51,320
Speaker 7: but look here's why it's a long shit. It's one

1523
01:12:51,439 --> 01:12:54,719
Speaker 7: hundred and fifty to one right now. Jay Crowder literally

1524
01:12:54,760 --> 01:12:59,439
Speaker 7: has the same Finals MVP odds as Jevon Carter. That's

1525
01:12:59,520 --> 01:13:03,760
Speaker 7: so dis respectful. This is a starter in the NBA Finals.

1526
01:13:04,000 --> 01:13:05,800
Speaker 7: At least make my man like one hundred to one

1527
01:13:05,880 --> 01:13:08,400
Speaker 7: or something. Just saying one hundred and fifty to one,

1528
01:13:08,960 --> 01:13:11,400
Speaker 7: just a little tiny taste of it. And when he

1529
01:13:11,439 --> 01:13:13,639
Speaker 7: comes out and puts up like five threes in game one,

1530
01:13:13,680 --> 01:13:17,280
Speaker 7: you start dreaming a little hop on prop swat make

1531
01:13:17,320 --> 01:13:17,920
Speaker 7: a little cash.

1532
01:13:18,040 --> 01:13:22,400
Speaker 4: Rhim DeAndre Aiden is twenty to one, and our guy says, no, no, no.

1533
01:13:22,640 --> 01:13:23,639
Speaker 1: I'm going further.

1534
01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:26,280
Speaker 3: That's not enough for me.

1535
01:13:26,840 --> 01:13:31,640
Speaker 1: Twenty one eight not enough. Gotta go deeper, gotta go

1536
01:13:31,680 --> 01:13:32,559
Speaker 1: for the long ball.

1537
01:13:32,520 --> 01:13:34,439
Speaker 2: You for the stars on the moon.

1538
01:13:35,120 --> 01:13:35,760
Speaker 3: I love it, though.

1539
01:13:35,840 --> 01:13:37,280
Speaker 4: The thing is, I'm gonna bet. I'm gonna tell you

1540
01:13:37,360 --> 01:13:39,400
Speaker 4: right now, I'm gonna bet it right now. I'm gonna

1541
01:13:39,439 --> 01:13:42,800
Speaker 4: bet it, and I'm gonna cash it out after like

1542
01:13:42,880 --> 01:13:48,920
Speaker 4: game five exactly, like minus one fifty. I'm gonna try

1543
01:13:48,960 --> 01:13:49,479
Speaker 4: and get out of.

1544
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:53,240
Speaker 7: It, like I just it's it's a ridiculous long shot.

1545
01:13:53,320 --> 01:13:57,360
Speaker 7: Be responsible if you're listening to this. However, However, MVP

1546
01:13:57,680 --> 01:14:00,559
Speaker 7: is a ridiculous small sample size of award that we

1547
01:14:00,720 --> 01:14:04,040
Speaker 7: based on four games, not even seven. You only care

1548
01:14:04,080 --> 01:14:06,719
Speaker 7: about the four wins. It's a ridiculous award. We should

1549
01:14:06,720 --> 01:14:10,920
Speaker 7: have a playoff MVP, not a finals MVP. Why can't

1550
01:14:11,040 --> 01:14:14,000
Speaker 7: Ja Crowder hit like twenty threes in four wins?

1551
01:14:14,040 --> 01:14:15,080
Speaker 2: He absolutely could.

1552
01:14:15,320 --> 01:14:18,360
Speaker 7: Hens don't put up huge scoring. They could have more

1553
01:14:18,400 --> 01:14:22,480
Speaker 7: balance scoring numbers. It's it's in the realm of possibility,

1554
01:14:22,520 --> 01:14:24,920
Speaker 7: and it's higher than like zero point seven percent of

1555
01:14:24,920 --> 01:14:25,320
Speaker 7: a chance.

1556
01:14:25,360 --> 01:14:26,960
Speaker 4: I just trying to imagine the voters are gonna go

1557
01:14:27,160 --> 01:14:32,680
Speaker 4: this being liked being like one achievement, Jay Crowd, I

1558
01:14:32,680 --> 01:14:34,200
Speaker 4: know the Chris Paul.

1559
01:14:35,960 --> 01:14:37,439
Speaker 1: Is there, but.

1560
01:14:38,960 --> 01:14:40,320
Speaker 2: We're gonna have to get you know what is there?

1561
01:14:40,320 --> 01:14:41,080
Speaker 2: Like eleven voters.

1562
01:14:41,120 --> 01:14:43,320
Speaker 7: We're gonna have to win this like five to three

1563
01:14:43,320 --> 01:14:45,800
Speaker 7: to three, like a few votes for Giannis on a

1564
01:14:45,880 --> 01:14:48,600
Speaker 7: on a hero comeback, few for the career achievement for

1565
01:14:48,680 --> 01:14:51,639
Speaker 7: CP like maybe maybe a Booker. And then like Jay

1566
01:14:51,680 --> 01:14:53,799
Speaker 7: Crowder wins the plurality with four votes.

1567
01:14:54,080 --> 01:14:54,640
Speaker 2: How did you win?

1568
01:14:54,680 --> 01:14:58,160
Speaker 1: You're one hundred and fifty to one, bet jury. That's

1569
01:14:58,240 --> 01:15:00,880
Speaker 1: that's the past success.

1570
01:15:01,600 --> 01:15:04,599
Speaker 4: All right, I'm gonna go ahead and put Suns. I've

1571
01:15:04,680 --> 01:15:10,040
Speaker 4: put Suns and the under parlad I got that one

1572
01:15:10,120 --> 01:15:10,679
Speaker 4: fifty five.

1573
01:15:12,160 --> 01:15:13,759
Speaker 1: I'm on Suns miles five and a half.

1574
01:15:14,960 --> 01:15:16,880
Speaker 4: I will tell you right now that regardless of game,

1575
01:15:17,120 --> 01:15:19,439
Speaker 4: well not regardless, I will if the Suns win tomorrow night,

1576
01:15:19,439 --> 01:15:21,479
Speaker 4: I will be on the Bucks in game two. You

1577
01:15:21,479 --> 01:15:25,080
Speaker 4: can check out heat check on Tuesday and Thursday this

1578
01:15:25,160 --> 01:15:28,559
Speaker 4: week for more on the series. We'll have it before

1579
01:15:28,720 --> 01:15:30,760
Speaker 4: the game. You can be able to get updates on

1580
01:15:30,840 --> 01:15:34,720
Speaker 4: injury statuses, great information. It's on Action Network HQ. That's

1581
01:15:34,760 --> 01:15:37,200
Speaker 4: our Twitter handle. Make sure that follow the guys in

1582
01:15:37,240 --> 01:15:39,559
Speaker 4: the app and on Twitter. We'll have more stuff coming

1583
01:15:39,680 --> 01:15:42,759
Speaker 4: for you, for Rahiem Palmer, for Brandon Anderson.

1584
01:15:42,760 --> 01:15:45,759
Speaker 1: Everybody enjoy the Finals. We'll be back on Friday morning.

1585
01:15:45,760 --> 01:15:49,880
Speaker 4: We'll record after Thursday night's Game two with another episode.

1586
01:15:49,360 --> 01:15:54,280
Speaker 1: Of NBA Finals Action Network Podcast. Thanks for joining us,

1587
01:15:54,280 --> 01:16:02,519
Speaker 1: I regard

1588
01:16:05,520 --> 01:16:06,559
Speaker 8: We're finished talking