1 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast, part of the Volume 2 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. 3 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, 4 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: Mike Padre my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, So 5 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 1: I'm in Chad. How we doing, dude? We got some 6 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: serious football, some serious football betting to discuss. Because the 7 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: NFL schedule came out last week, lines are posted for 8 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: every single game. Team totals are posted for games like 9 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: the Action to get down already for Week one has 10 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: been insane. It's become a highlight for fans. The schedule 11 00:00:54,880 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: released during the sort of dull drums of the NFL offseason, 12 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 1: and they've really nailed this. The NFL also offers gamblers 13 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:07,680 Speaker 1: a chance to discuss this upcoming season from a variety 14 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: of new angles. Today, we're going to do things a 15 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 1: little bit differently. We're doing a two part episode with 16 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: a very special guest returning to the show to discuss 17 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 1: many of those angles. One of our favorite guests with 18 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: our favorite mustache. He's an NFL predictive analyst, one of 19 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: the originals, a proponent of all things data, the impresario 20 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: of sharp football analysis. Dot Com. Mister Warren Sharp. 21 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 2: Hey, thanks for having me, Chad Simon. Pleasure to be 22 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 2: back with you. 23 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 3: Guys. Always love this time of year because we get 24 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,679 Speaker 3: to break down the schedule and like you mentioned, lines 25 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:47,600 Speaker 3: out on all these games. 26 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 2: Everything is super fresh. 27 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 3: It's never going to be any fresher than it is 28 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 3: over the past week or so, so happy to dive 29 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 3: into it with you guys. 30 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: Well listen, one of the reasons we love to have 31 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: you on is because your Preseason Bible is a must 32 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: for football fans because you go so deep on every 33 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: team every new edition, how these teams did against the spread, 34 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 1: what they do on offense, defense, all the rest metrics 35 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: that we're going to get into today. You are very 36 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: graciously offering listeners of the favorites the Bible, Sharp Football Analysis, 37 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: the Preseason Bible for one dollar use code Action. Go 38 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: to Sharp dot Football. That's right, Sharp dot Football, Sharp 39 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 1: dot Football. 40 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 3: It'll have a link up the top. You can go 41 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:39,280 Speaker 3: right to the purchase page enter into code Action. Drops 42 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 3: the price from thirty five dollars down to one dollar. 43 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 3: So you're not going to get a better deal than that, 44 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 3: and I can guarantee you're not going to find a 45 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,239 Speaker 3: better use today for a dollar than pre ordering the 46 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 3: book for when it comes out the beginning of July. 47 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: One dollar. The ROI on that dollar, God only knows. 48 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: You've got to be wise, but that is going to 49 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 1: be a huge ROI. All right, NFL schedule it's out. 50 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: We're going to get to that in a second. Spring 51 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: meetings happening as we speak. So many you know, rules 52 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: changes being proposed. Everyone's talking about the touch push, but 53 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 1: there's also proposals for playoff seating structure. Simon, I'll start 54 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: with you, how do you feel about a change to 55 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: the seating structure and how would that impact the way 56 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: you think about not just the playoffs, but also how 57 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: teams sort of work the regular season from a betting perspective. 58 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 4: A bunch of differentids come out of the main part 59 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 4: I don't like about is it's I feel like they're 60 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 4: trying to take away something we all love is betters, 61 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 4: which is home dogs in the playoffs, Like that eight 62 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 4: to nine team in the playoffs at home playing against 63 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 4: a team that's going to be much more talented, right, 64 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 4: the five seed usually it is gonna better than the 65 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 4: four seed. You know, it's it's taking something away from us, right, 66 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 4: Like again, it rarely overall, right, but there's always those 67 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 4: unique spots that there is a team that is terrible 68 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 4: makes in the playoffs and somehow pulls off a huge upset, 69 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 4: which we all talk about all the time. Beast quick like, 70 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 4: that's the game that will forever stick out that any 71 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 4: anyone that's a real big time better that Seahawks was 72 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 4: a big dog playing against a Drew Brees led team, which, 73 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 4: as it better, pretty simple, right, You're getting Drew Brees 74 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 4: going from indoor to outdoors against a team that thrived 75 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 4: on strong defense with a good run game. It was 76 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,679 Speaker 4: like very easy for Better to see, but the general 77 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 4: public didn't see it that way. So those are ones 78 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 4: that pop out to me. And you know, we saw 79 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 4: last year with that great team down in Washington making 80 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 4: that run chat. That was a team that you know, 81 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 4: did it all on the road. So those are things 82 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 4: I love and I love to see happen. 83 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 2: But I get it. 84 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 4: I'd be pissed too if I was a really good 85 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 4: team and I'm them to play all my road games 86 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,839 Speaker 4: rather than you know, being at home. So pretty interesting shakeup. 87 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 4: But I think that the Vikings Detroit, I don't know. 88 00:04:57,640 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 4: I don't like that they're they're pro proposing in this 89 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 4: actually might happen, But we'll see what the rule is. 90 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: Chad. 91 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 4: It's a big deal for sure. 92 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:07,599 Speaker 1: Though, Warren, you're a pretty connected guy. Do you have 93 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:11,480 Speaker 1: thoughts on if this has a real chance at passing? 94 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 2: At first, I thought it was going to have a 95 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 2: great chance. 96 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 3: I think now that the pressure from Goodell is going 97 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 3: to be very strong on this two pass. 98 00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 2: But I'm not. 99 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 3: Quite sure that we're going to get enough buy in 100 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 3: yet from some of the teams in those divisions that stink, 101 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 3: like the AFC South for example, who love to have 102 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 3: that four seed when they get to the playoffs and 103 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 3: would lose that four seed if they passed this rule 104 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 3: because that team then would probably be seven seed or 105 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 3: six seed, and that's a big issue for those teams. 106 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 3: But I felt like that this rule should pass because 107 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 3: Goodell wants it to pass. I mean, as we're going 108 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 3: to be talking about momentarily, this league is now built 109 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 3: on making revenue and get getting people to watch their 110 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 3: games on TV so that their ratings go high so 111 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,479 Speaker 3: that they can get new deals in the future. And 112 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 3: this will make those Week eighteen games better. But to 113 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 3: Simon's point, from betting on those games, one of the 114 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 3: things that we are able to do is get all 115 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 3: that insight a little bit before maybe the general public 116 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 3: is is this coach going to rest this players week eighteen? 117 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 3: Is this how many snaps? Is this first team going 118 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 3: to play? Now, if they do this, we're going to 119 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 3: have less teams resting in Week eighteen. I mean, there 120 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 3: was a slide that they presented at the ownership meetings 121 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 3: that showed that the Houston Texans went into Week eighteen 122 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:40,279 Speaker 3: locked into the fourth seed, but if this new system 123 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:44,040 Speaker 3: had passed, they could have finished anywhere from fourth to 124 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 3: seventh seed. 125 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 2: Last year. 126 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 3: The La Rams went into Week eighteen last year as 127 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 3: the number three or the four seed. They also decided 128 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 3: to rest starters, but if this had passed, they could 129 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 3: have been anywhere from the fourth to the seventh seed. 130 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 3: Even the Philadelphia Eagles, they were locked in as the 131 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 3: two in this adjusted system, they could have fallen into 132 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 3: the third seed with a loss. And so those three 133 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 3: teams decided to rest starters in Week eighteen. This new 134 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 3: system would given them more of a desire to play guys, 135 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 3: And so I actually think it might be like the 136 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 3: Players Association that would feel the strongest like, hey, our 137 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 3: guys should deserve a little bit of a rest. We 138 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 3: don't need to change this up for the NFL to 139 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 3: get new ratings, for the owners to line their pockets more, 140 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 3: even though eventually it does trickle down to the players. 141 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 2: So I think it's going to be fascinating. I totally disagree, though. 142 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 3: Chad, with this contingent of people who think that this 143 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 3: is going to Yes, it sort of makes divisions less important, 144 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 3: but it's not going to throw everything out like this 145 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 3: is to me, this is not something that is going 146 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 3: to make teams less likely. 147 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 2: To play hard. 148 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 3: These teams in the strong divisions are still going to 149 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 3: be playing to try to get their seeding, and the 150 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 3: teams in the weak division. Do you think if a 151 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 3: team is in first place in the AFC South and 152 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 3: they're like, oh, well, we're not going to get a 153 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 3: fourth place they're still going to be playing to not 154 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 3: play the seventh place playoff schedule, the sixth place playoff schedule. 155 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 3: They may not be able to get the fourth place spot, 156 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 3: but they're still going to be trying to play for 157 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 3: a higher seed. So I don't see how this makes 158 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,119 Speaker 3: the teams less likely to try hard. 159 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: I like the idea. Actually, I like having more of 160 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: an opportunity in the regular season to have one more 161 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: week with a full slate that offers betting windows, right, 162 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 1: because the scenario that you just talked about, Simon's becoming 163 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 1: less and less. We love betting the playoffs. We killed 164 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 1: in the playoffs this year, but I don't mind having 165 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: a lot more games to look at in the final 166 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:54,079 Speaker 1: weekend of the regular season. I think that's kind of fantastic. 167 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 4: Brother, I just took We just had the rams of 168 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 4: the Dog against the Vikings, and that was amazing and 169 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 4: we killed it, right, That's what I mean. So like 170 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 4: that was a nice opportunity. We're gonna lose the opportunity, dude, 171 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 4: that would have been a Viking to home game. That's 172 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 4: I get where they're coming from again, all these different proposals, 173 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 4: Each one's different, right. Some of them it only matters 174 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,839 Speaker 4: if a team's below five hundred. Some of them they're 175 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 4: only going to recede after the first round. Like it's 176 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 4: I mean, like you said, it's there's a lot of 177 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 4: things being pushed today that the Toush push, Like it 178 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 4: sounds like the toush push is more likely to get 179 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 4: put through than this one is because it seems like 180 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 4: a lot of owners fucking hate the toush push because 181 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 4: their team can't do it, and the Eagles obviously couldn't 182 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 4: couldn't be stopped. So like Green Bay being the team 183 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 4: to go and propose this touch push ban, that makes 184 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 4: more sense than other teams agreeing to this receding cause 185 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 4: it's like I'd be bitter too. It's an automatic play 186 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 4: that a team is a huge advantage on. You know, 187 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 4: I get, I get why they're trying to ban that. 188 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 4: I just don't, like you said, the revenue thing. That 189 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 4: makes more sense than anything else for this. Try to 190 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 4: change these playoff. 191 00:09:55,320 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: Schedules, Warren, You've corner the market on the idea of 192 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: rest advantage, and when you look at the schedule, now, 193 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: how do you handicap the teams that have done that 194 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:20,439 Speaker 1: have gotten a rest advantage versus the teams that don't. 195 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 2: Well. Rest certainly matters. There have been changes in. 196 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 3: The way that the league has divvied up the schedule 197 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 3: this year to help increase the equity a little bit. 198 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 3: I do think that they did a little bit of 199 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 3: a better job this year than they have in years past. 200 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 3: Some years have come on your show this time every 201 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 3: May pounded my hand on the table and said, this 202 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 3: is ridiculous. To keep making it worse. I don't know 203 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 3: where the you know, the light the end of the 204 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 3: tunnel is. But things are good. Just ripping my hair 205 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 3: out with how terrible it is. It's still not great, 206 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 3: but it's better than what it was last year. I'll 207 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 3: say that it has improved a little bit. 208 00:10:57,440 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 2: Last year. 209 00:10:57,800 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 3: There are still one hundred and one games being played 210 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 3: where one team has a rest advantage over an opponent, 211 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 3: which is the identical number to what it was last year, 212 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 3: but the haves and the have nots, it's gotten a 213 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 3: little bit closer to even so we're not seeing as 214 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 3: many teams skewing to one end of the spectrum or 215 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 3: the other. 216 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 2: So that's a positive. 217 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,679 Speaker 3: We'll talk momentarily about some of the teams that got 218 00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:25,079 Speaker 3: screwed the most or the most benefits. But one of 219 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 3: the things that has changed, and the league sort of 220 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 3: pointed this out when they were doing a little bit 221 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 3: of analysis of the schedule and rest in the schedule, 222 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 3: is that bye weeks have certainly become less beneficial, especially 223 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 3: to bet on then they had in the past. In 224 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 3: the past, prior to twenty eleven, we had major advantages 225 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 3: from bye weeks, and you could cover the spread fifty 226 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 3: six percent of the time if you were just betting 227 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 3: on the team that was off of a bye That 228 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 3: no longer exists because that twenty eleven CBA forces four 229 00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 3: mandatory days off of bye weeks, and there are teams 230 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 3: and coaches that used to give their players one day 231 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 3: off in a bye week and get ready for the 232 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 3: next day. 233 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 2: We got a big game coming up. 234 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 3: Okay, everybody, you can go home, don't come back until 235 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 3: you know, the day after tomorrow. But otherwise, now they're 236 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 3: getting all this time off, the coaches are getting out 237 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 3: of rhythm from a play calling perspective. I don't know 238 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 3: about you guys, from the way that you've been betting 239 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 3: things over the last couple of years, but I certainly 240 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,200 Speaker 3: have ran into a couple of problems where I would 241 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 3: be liking a team for a certain game, knowing they're 242 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:31,959 Speaker 3: coming off of a bye, thinking that that would provide 243 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 3: a little bit more of an edge, But what ends 244 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 3: up happening is that team shows up rusty, out of sync. 245 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 2: The play calling strategies. 246 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 3: Are a little bit different than what they were finishing 247 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,079 Speaker 3: as they went into the buy and all of a sudden, 248 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 3: I'm betting on a team that I wasn't expecting to 249 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 3: be out there on the field, And that's happened several times, 250 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 3: and you know, I just kicked myself out of yet 251 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 3: I remember this team's coming off of a bye. Those 252 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 3: teams are becoming a little bit more fade material hitting, 253 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 3: you know, covering the spread like forty seven forty eight 254 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 3: percent of the time as opposed to fifty six percent, 255 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 3: which is massive. So identifying chad the situations where rest 256 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 3: is beneficial and isolating the situations where rest may not 257 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 3: be as beneficial, that's become a little bit more important 258 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,719 Speaker 3: over the last several seasons in my opinion. But there 259 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 3: certainly are spots where teams are just league wide getting 260 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 3: screwed with rest or getting rest advantages. Holistically, we know 261 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 3: that short week road games are a bad thing for teams, 262 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 3: but since twenty and twenty one, so just over the 263 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 3: last four years, a team like the San Francisco forty 264 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 3: nine ers has to play ten such games, whereas other 265 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 3: teams have only played two such games. Over the last 266 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 3: four years, so there isn't necessarily a desire to balance 267 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 3: this stuff out at the minute level, and that's where 268 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 3: you know, I would like to see it be more fair. 269 00:13:56,600 --> 00:14:01,319 Speaker 3: But we now know that the NFL doesn't prioritize that. 270 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 3: What they're prioritizing is big teams playing one another in 271 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,199 Speaker 3: big games, which is why we have ridiculous schedule this 272 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 3: Christmas and Thanksgiving, and they're in it for the ratings 273 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 3: they want to get, you know, they want to be 274 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 3: able to promote that they broke the records ratings. I 275 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 3: even heard Mike North come out and say, we want 276 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 3: to hit fifty million viewers on the Thanksgiving night game 277 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 3: where Dallas plays the Kansas City. 278 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 2: Chiefs, which would break all of the records. 279 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 3: And the reason that they're looking to do that is 280 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 3: because they want to sell a standalone pay per view 281 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 3: game on Dezone or on tob or god knows what 282 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 3: other network, so they then can make more money in 283 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 3: the future. So that's what they're prioritizing. They say, as 284 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 3: long as rest isn't too inequitable, then it's okay. But 285 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 3: who's to define too inequitable. It's their own decision as 286 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 3: to what's too inequitable, and that's why we need to 287 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 3: sort of act as watchdogs and look out for the 288 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 3: schedule and look out for the rest and just make 289 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,200 Speaker 3: sure that they're not when they are screwing teams they 290 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 3: like they are, and we'll discuss we point that out 291 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 3: so that hopefully those teams get a little bit of 292 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 3: benefit in the future. 293 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 1: You brought up sort of it used to be an 294 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: auto play and now it's becoming less and less of 295 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 1: that to get bet these teams coming off the by 296 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: Evan did some research for US. Last season, teams with 297 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: a rest advantage were actually one game under five hundred 298 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: fifty four to fifty five straight up, and then they 299 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: were thirteen games under five hundred against the spread. That's 300 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: the second worst mark against the spread since two thousand 301 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 1: and by the way, since PASPO was repealed in twenty eighteen, 302 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 1: fifty one percent straight up forty eight percent against the spread. 303 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: So that is a losing bet since two thousand eighteen 304 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: betting teams with the rest advantage. To your point, is 305 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 1: it because they haven't been equitable? But before I actually 306 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: let me ask sign in, how have you been thinking 307 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: about teams coming off of buye or teams having rest 308 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: advantages the last couple of years. 309 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 4: It's a bunch of boys. Like I told you, I 310 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 4: use Warren's book as a major tool for what I'm doing, 311 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 4: and that is the sense of you know, adjusting to 312 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 4: season win tolls and differences like that. Like you know 313 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 4: that Eagles team last year, all the players talked about 314 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 4: going to Brazil week one. They felt like they couldn't 315 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 4: catch up and get like get their heads right until 316 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 4: their bye week which was after week four, and you 317 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 4: hear every player talk about it where it's like they 318 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 4: couldn't catch their breath. It was just really intense going 319 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 4: from your preseason trying to make the team get ready 320 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 4: for the upcoming season. Two you're going to a foreign country. 321 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 4: Now you're coming back, and now you're playing, you know, 322 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 4: multiple road games, you have a home game here and there. 323 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 4: It's a lot and the Bible helped them catch up. 324 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 4: You look at this schedule this year, there's tons of 325 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 4: teams having that exact scenario, long distance travel, a lot 326 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 4: going on and a lot to deal with when they 327 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 4: get back. And you know, for me, I remember last 328 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,400 Speaker 4: year one that really jumped out was one was on it. 329 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 4: It was about the Chiefs. The Chiefs got the worst 330 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 4: deal we've ever seen any football team get last year. Right, 331 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 4: they had the most insane schedule Saturdays, Wednesdays. I mean, 332 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 4: I think the only day they didn't play was Tuesday. 333 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 4: They might even add a Tuesday game. I don't even know, 334 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 4: but it was just insane how their schedules set up. 335 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,879 Speaker 4: They were perfect. So we talked on here about that 336 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,360 Speaker 4: where there's certain teams we do think it will affect, 337 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 4: and there's other teams with veteran quarterback and veteran head 338 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:32,120 Speaker 4: coaches that their leadership can balance that, right, that rest 339 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 4: disparity those other teams that it does affect. Where we 340 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 4: just talked about a young Eagles team. They started two 341 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 4: and two, right, they lost to a not very talented 342 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins and that Atlanta team, and then to a 343 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 4: Saints team that we all know we're terrible. I mean, 344 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 4: not the Saints, Tampa Bay. We were pretty good, but 345 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,439 Speaker 4: still close. Came with the Saints starts season. So it 346 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 4: just shows out early in the year these teams they're 347 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 4: not going to be the who they are, especially when 348 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 4: they're traveling like they are, so you know, jumps out 349 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 4: of the page. Chargers Chiefs. That's a team that's going 350 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 4: to Brazil week one, right, Like we have a lot 351 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 4: of things. People can look at Warren's book about that 352 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,399 Speaker 4: type of stuff where it's like those miles and that 353 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 4: stuff does matter and can affect a lot of teams. 354 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 4: So that's what's such a big deal to me reading 355 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,360 Speaker 4: war and stuff. It's like you have to look into 356 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 4: each team's rest is spirit. Even though it's not the 357 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:18,480 Speaker 4: end all be all, it's a major tool to have 358 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 4: on end. 359 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 3: One thing, Chad, I do I do want to throw 360 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 3: in just some data I know because you were mentioning 361 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 3: Evans Evan Abrams great research. I just want to throw 362 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 3: in some some nuggets heer real quick before we get 363 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 3: into team discussion and other situations. 364 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 2: Just the specifics. 365 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 3: If you are off of a bye week from two 366 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 3: thousand and two to twenty ten, you are covering the 367 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,640 Speaker 3: spread fifty six percent of the time seven point six 368 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:48,479 Speaker 3: percent ROI. Since twenty seventeen you're covering the spread forty 369 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 3: six percent of the time minus twelve point two percent ROI. 370 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 3: So a massive difference off of the buy the situations 371 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 3: where you want to be looking and Simon mentioned this too, 372 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 3: about the Chiefs. What I affect is that the better 373 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,439 Speaker 3: team usually obviously in these games, is going to be 374 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 3: favored favorites. When they have extra rest, that edge becomes amplified. 375 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:13,600 Speaker 3: Bad teams that may have extra rest, it doesn't necessarily 376 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 3: help them. They don't know the right strategies to use 377 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 3: during that extra rest or to take advantage of to 378 00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 3: get to the level of the good team. So favorites 379 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:25,479 Speaker 3: tend to do a little bit better when they do 380 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 3: have extra rest than underdogser than bad teams do. The 381 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 3: other spots to think about here are the short week 382 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 3: road games, which we are going to discuss short week 383 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 3: road games. The last ten years, those teams that means 384 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 3: like they're playing Sunday and then they play on Thursday 385 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 3: on the road, which happens a lot. This year, those 386 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 3: teams have covered the spread just forty eight point three 387 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,679 Speaker 3: percent of the time, which is minus seven point eight 388 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,920 Speaker 3: percent ROI over the last ten years. 389 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 2: That's a big deal. 390 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:55,880 Speaker 3: Forty eight percent cover rate can be a solid spot 391 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,800 Speaker 3: to bet against these teams, especially when other factors play 392 00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 3: into it. If that's team instead of having goes on 393 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 3: the road, instead of having short rest, they actually have 394 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,520 Speaker 3: a little bit extra rest in their opponent, all of 395 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 3: a sudden they become fifty four point seven percent ROI, 396 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 3: fifty four point seven percent cover rate, which is positive 397 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 3: four point four percent ROI. A couple other spots to 398 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 3: be aware of. It only happens once this year, three 399 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 3: games in ten days. That last game is absolutely brutal. 400 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 3: It's a very low sample size. It's going to happen 401 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 3: to the Dallas Cowboys once this year, actually on Thanksgiving. 402 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,959 Speaker 3: Those teams when it's when it's happened, there's something like 403 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 3: two and nine, two and ten in the last decade 404 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 3: when they've played three games in ten days, which hasn't 405 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 3: happened very frequently, and then games after playing on the 406 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 3: road Sunday or Monday night and having to come home 407 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 3: and play an opponent that has not had to do 408 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 3: that forty eight point seven percent since twenty thirteen across 409 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 3: over four hundred games. So we aren't talking about situations 410 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 3: here that are going to scream, you know, sixty percent, 411 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 3: sixty five percent hover rate when you talk about sample 412 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 3: sizes that are a little bit larger, but it is 413 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 3: meaningful when you're talking about and Simon knows this, you 414 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 3: know this chat. I don't really bet other sports, but 415 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 3: I do know that there are people out there that 416 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 3: whether they're betting NBA rest spots or MLB rest spots 417 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 3: or situations or team's gone on the road for all 418 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 3: those games and then comes back home, like, there are 419 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 3: spots and edges to be had just based upon general 420 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 3: rest situations. So it is a key factor in the NFL. 421 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 3: But the key is to understand when it is a 422 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 3: factor and when it is not as big of a factor. 423 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 1: Well, what's interesting about that? And you guys have both 424 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: just said this is the NFL disadvantages the marquee teams 425 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 1: in these scenarios because they want to put the marquee 426 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 1: teams in the highest profile slots, and that's automatically going 427 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: to be impossible to navigate to get them both rest 428 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 1: and marquee slot. The teams that we've already talked about, 429 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 1: the Cowboys, the Chiefs, Historically, the Niners have gotten screwed 430 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,160 Speaker 1: on this, right, like the teams that the Eagles last year, Right, 431 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 1: those are the teams that we're always thinking about. So 432 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,120 Speaker 1: it's fascinating to me that all of a sudden you've 433 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: got these insights and windows into Hey, these might be 434 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 1: teams that even if historically we want to back them, 435 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: this is a very specific spot where you might want 436 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 1: to fade them because there could be value, especially if 437 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,119 Speaker 1: they're coming off some high profile games in which they 438 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 1: might have won. So Warren, looking at the schedule, who wins, 439 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,120 Speaker 1: who loses when it comes to rest and spots right now. 440 00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you one spot that's terrible. This team 441 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,439 Speaker 3: is fine from an overall rest advantage. But like just 442 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 3: an example of how the NFL doesn't pay enough attention 443 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 3: to this. The Cincinnati Bengals have to play on the 444 00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 3: road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And that's the 445 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 3: third straight year that they have to play on the 446 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,440 Speaker 3: road in Baltimore on a Thursday game. And how many 447 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 3: times have the Ravens gone into Cincinnati to play on 448 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 3: the road on a Thursday game. One time since two 449 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 3: thousand and six, So we're talking one time in the 450 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 3: last nineteen years. But Cincinnati has had to do it 451 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 3: now three straight years in Baltimore. By the way, Baltimore 452 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 3: nine to zero hosting Thursday night home games. Most teams 453 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,880 Speaker 3: are really good when they host Thursday night games. Baltimore 454 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 3: is terrible when they go on the road on Thursday. 455 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:30,959 Speaker 3: That nine and oh team at home turns into two 456 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 3: and seven on the road, but they get to host Cincinnati. 457 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 3: It's unfair that they get to do that three straight 458 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,119 Speaker 3: years in a row. The NFL needs to right that 459 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 3: wrong next season. But you could try to make up 460 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 3: for it, like they're doing with the San Francisco forty 461 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 3: nine ers rest this year. They're one of the top 462 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 3: teams in the league after being screwed by minus twenty 463 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,679 Speaker 3: days or worse each of the last two seasons. We 464 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 3: talked about them last year on your show Minus twenty 465 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 3: two day net rest differential I think it was and 466 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 3: obviously their season on Repdill mainly due to injuries, but 467 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 3: rest didn't help. But you know, it's one thing to 468 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 3: go right the wrong, you know, a couple of years later. 469 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,399 Speaker 3: The issue is trying to make it as balanced as 470 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,440 Speaker 3: possible in the moment and not have these situations happen 471 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 3: because coaches careers are on the line. 472 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 2: You know, a couple of. 473 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,679 Speaker 3: Bad seasons because in some part rest is factoring into 474 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 3: the fact that you're unable to win some of these games, 475 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 3: and all of a sudden you're out of a job, 476 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,199 Speaker 3: So it might help your successor when they write the 477 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 3: wrong a couple of years from now, but it's not 478 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 3: going to help you in the moment. The Detroit Lions 479 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,400 Speaker 3: are one of these teams that really stands out this season. 480 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 3: It's ironic because they have such a brutal schedule. They 481 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 3: have one of the most difficult schedules of opponents in 482 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 3: the NFL. But the NFL doesn't define who you're going 483 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 3: to play. That's all predetermined based upon where you finished 484 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 3: last year and a rolling calendar that schedules out in 485 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,640 Speaker 3: advanced years in advance what divisions you're going to play. 486 00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 2: The Lions are screwed from a strength of. 487 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 3: Opponent perspective, but the NFL of them eight games where 488 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 3: they have a rest advantage over their opponent. Eight games 489 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 3: has never happened before in NFL history. This is an 490 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 3: example of where while the league has improved, they're scheduling 491 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 3: a little bit, there are still areas that are notable 492 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,919 Speaker 3: and that they could improve further. Never before has a 493 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,240 Speaker 3: team played more than six games in a season with 494 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 3: a rest advantage over their opponent. Destroit doesn't play just seven, 495 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,640 Speaker 3: they play eight. On top of that, they only play 496 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 3: one game where they're at a rest disadvantage, thus a 497 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 3: net of plus seven games where they have a rest 498 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:36,959 Speaker 3: advantage over their opponent. They play five different games against 499 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,320 Speaker 3: an opponent who's coming off a Monday night football game 500 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 3: on a short week, and those five games. You think 501 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 3: about it, and I've talked to some players. When they 502 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:50,239 Speaker 3: get home on Monday night, it's actually Tuesday morning at 503 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 3: that point in time, even if it's a home game, 504 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 3: they're getting in Tuesday morning. They're starting their rehab. The 505 00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 3: Lions playing on a Sunday at one pm. They have 506 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 3: all evening Sunday to rest and rehab and start watching film. 507 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 3: They have all day Monday to rest and rehab, watch 508 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:11,239 Speaker 3: the tape from yesterday, make their adjustments, figure out their 509 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 3: game plan, and then they get Monday night to watch 510 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 3: the opponent that they're going to play. While the Lions 511 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 3: are still rehabbing, this other team that they're playing has 512 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,720 Speaker 3: less time to rehab and also has less time to 513 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 3: make adjustments based upon what happened. They're instantly looking forward 514 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 3: to the next game as opposed to making some of 515 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,600 Speaker 3: those corrections based upon how they performed on Monday night. 516 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 3: So it's a minor advantage. It's only one day of rest, 517 00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 3: but it is impactful over the course of you know, 518 00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 3: these minor edges added up over the course of entire season. 519 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,080 Speaker 3: No team has ever played five opponents off of Monday 520 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 3: Night Football like the Detroit Lions are going to play. 521 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,120 Speaker 3: The other interesting factor about the Lions schedule specifically is 522 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 3: the comparison and unfortunately, Chad, you know, your Chicago Bears 523 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,479 Speaker 3: are there in the NFC North, the comparison of the 524 00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 3: Detroit Lions and how they stack up with the rest 525 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,440 Speaker 3: of the North. Because if you look at my net 526 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,360 Speaker 3: rest edges in the article that I wrote, a lot 527 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,479 Speaker 3: of the teams in the NFC West are up at 528 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 3: the top, the forty nine Ers, the Rams, the Cardinals. 529 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 3: The NFL tried to help out the forty nine ers, 530 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,840 Speaker 3: I think this year, right the wrongs of those minus 531 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:20,360 Speaker 3: twenty days, and so they also ended up helping out 532 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 3: some of the other teams in their division simultaneously. But 533 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 3: for the NFC North, the Lions are the only team 534 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 3: that's getting these edges. If you look at their division 535 00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 3: games with a rest edge, they have eight. No other 536 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,120 Speaker 3: team in their division has four. Your Chicago Bears only 537 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 3: play two games would they rest disadvantage? I just mentioned 538 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 3: the Chicago Bears. Sorry, the Detroit Lions play only one 539 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:46,680 Speaker 3: such game. The Bears play five games. Would they rest disadvantage? 540 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 3: And so if you look at the net, how many 541 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,440 Speaker 3: net games of rest advantage do you have? The Lions 542 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 3: are at plus seven, eight and one plus seven, The 543 00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 3: Bears and everybody else is zero or worse. In fact, 544 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,960 Speaker 3: the Bears are minus three. So that's just games with 545 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 3: a rest advantage the bit net games. The Lions are 546 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 3: at plus seven and your Chicago Bears are minus three. 547 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 3: We're talking about a ten game span in a seventeen 548 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 3: game season. So I just don't feel like things like 549 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:21,919 Speaker 3: that are necessarily fair, pre flop and equitable, and the 550 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 3: league should be looking at trying to make things a 551 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:28,399 Speaker 3: little bit more balanced, specifically within divisions, so that teams 552 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 3: don't have such wide sweeping edges in rest like they 553 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,720 Speaker 3: do right now in the NFC. 554 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:38,760 Speaker 1: North Simon feels a little bit like a conspiracy theory 555 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:39,479 Speaker 1: from the NFL. 556 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 4: It isn't. It isn't though, because you know, some of 557 00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 4: that has lots of football debates. I feel like nine 558 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 4: percent of my life is conversations about football people. 559 00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:50,960 Speaker 2: Call me off season. 560 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:52,360 Speaker 4: I think I called me to catch up, Chad, and no, 561 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,320 Speaker 4: they're calling me to give me some crazy idea and 562 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 4: have a conversation about football. And you know, we always talk, 563 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 4: especially with the old heads, about the Cowboys, like that's 564 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 4: such a polarizing team that you know, even when they're 565 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 4: not that good, they're still going to get four to 566 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,719 Speaker 4: five primetime games, and if they have a little bit 567 00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,240 Speaker 4: of talent, they might get six or seven. Like that's 568 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 4: just a team the NFL loves. But because of that, 569 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 4: pros professionals have been on a steady fade of them 570 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 4: since the nineties, ever since they become America's team. Really 571 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 4: they're always in these tough spots where they're not going 572 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 4: to be great for a team, especially for their season, 573 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,280 Speaker 4: and this season it's historical for them. The Cowboys are 574 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 4: a team that have four Thursday games. That doesn't even 575 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,719 Speaker 4: sound real when you say it out loud, but it's true. 576 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 4: And like it's the NFL. 577 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 2: You could say this. 578 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 4: Cowboys can say we have a raw deal. They're screwing 579 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,520 Speaker 4: us here, and I would agree they really are, because 580 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 4: Warren's telling you, like that Thursday game players talk all 581 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 4: the time their bodies ain't right till that Thursday Friday 582 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 4: after a Sunday game. So they have four this year 583 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 4: of short weeks, and you know they've finagled it right. 584 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 4: They give them back to back Thursdays, they try to 585 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 4: make it work for them. But overall, that's something that 586 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 4: really jumps out to me. That's team I love this season. 587 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,800 Speaker 4: The Cowboys, a team who's win total. I've been very 588 00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 4: heavy on a team that I bet for division and 589 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 4: you're seeing why because they have a tough schedule as well, 590 00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 4: Like towards the end of the season. Why their win 591 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,239 Speaker 4: total is what it is chat seven and a half, 592 00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 4: eight and a half because the NFL screws them with 593 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,320 Speaker 4: the schedule because they are America's team and they're not 594 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 4: getting any favors where the NFC East is playing really 595 00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 4: tough out division games this season. So that's something I 596 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 4: really can't wait to dive into. And I get Warren's 597 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 4: book about his outlook on this Cowboys team, because that 598 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 4: was something that jumped out for me right away, where 599 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 4: it's like, man, I thought I was getting in sane 600 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:32,800 Speaker 4: the good value. You see their schedule. Once it game 601 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 4: I goes okay, I get why that's such a low number. 602 00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 4: All Right, there's a lot of hype for Washington Eagles, 603 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 4: but they also have a very tough schedule this upcoming 604 00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 4: season in Dallas. 605 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of 606 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 1: The Favorites Thursday with part two of our episode with 607 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 1: Warren Sharp. Download us from Spotify, Apple podcast, wherever you 608 00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 1: get your podse rate, review, subscribe, loops five stars, say 609 00:30:54,000 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 1: whatever you want. Feedback is get until next time. Love You. 610 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:08,760 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 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