1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. That's when you have. 2 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 2: Fun when you're kicking somebody's ass and they're sucking from when. 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:17,240 Speaker 1: I was good. Ready, go in bolder on the base 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:22,119 Speaker 1: off Yeah, dump way. 5 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 2: Outside possible the wiley event there it is. Well, we 6 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 2: welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. This 7 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: is our March Madness Bracket Guide. I am your host, 8 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 2: Mike Calvary's and I am joined by the Action Networks 9 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:50,279 Speaker 2: Director of Research, Evan Abrams for discussion about everything March Madness. 10 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 2: I have to say, right from the jump, when I 11 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 2: saw this data dump, the amount of information, this treasure 12 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 2: trove of potential upsets or against the spread performance, all 13 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 2: of it in one place, it really harkened me back 14 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 2: to my childhood when I used to have to comb 15 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 2: through those sports illustrated in ESPN anthologies and these things. 16 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:13,199 Speaker 2: These things were absolute bricks and to go through year 17 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 2: by year. Oh, when was the last time that a 18 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 2: favorite actually won the championship? How often does a twelve 19 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 2: seed be to five seed? To have it all in 20 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 2: one place, even before we get into this conversation, to 21 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 2: see the raw data was so exciting to me. Is 22 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 2: it something that's you know, really moves the needle for 23 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 2: you just to go through some of these data projects 24 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 2: to find these easter eggs and present them to our audience. 25 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: First of all, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, Happy March madness. 26 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 1: I mean to be honest with you, it's a table 27 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 1: setter that needs to be done at least from my 28 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,960 Speaker 1: point of view, like weeks in advance, because once wetted 29 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 1: yesterday and today in conference championship week, I don't want 30 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: to do that stuff Like that stuff should already be 31 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: done so that we can use it as like if 32 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: I need to reference something, if you know every ten 33 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: is favored over a seven, or you know, things of 34 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: that nature. It's just easy things to refer back to 35 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: and it helps. It's like, you know, when you have 36 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: this many people covering the sport like we do, and 37 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: we have live shows and podcasts, just all try to 38 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: get it under the same window. 39 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, just going through this, it's it's interesting, Like you said, 40 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 2: to get your homework done ahead of time so that 41 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 2: you can shoot from the hip, but responsibly when filling 42 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 2: out your bracket and a note before we get started, 43 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 2: all of this data that you pulled, it all tracks 44 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 2: back to nineteen seventy eight. Why nineteen seventy eight? Why 45 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 2: not nineteen eighty five. Nineteen seventy eight was the first 46 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 2: year that the NCAA tournament was played with actual seeds 47 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 2: attached to the teams. So it's important in terms of 48 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 2: referencing our data that we'll be going all the way 49 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 2: back to seventy eight. But in general the modern tournaments, 50 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 2: when you think about those twelve five upsets and the 51 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 2: numbers really being meaningful on a yearly basis, that kind 52 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 2: of goes back to nineteen eighty five. So when you 53 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 2: look through this, was there anything before we get into 54 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 2: specifics that were a little bit more generational where this 55 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 2: happened in the eighties and nineties, where this is a new, 56 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 2: you know, phenomenon that seems to be bubbling to the 57 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 2: service eleven. 58 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: It's the eleven seed. I mean recently, I think since 59 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: the two thousands or so, even late twenty ten area, 60 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 1: it's been the eleven seed. I think they're over five 61 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: hundred potentially. I have it in my article on actionnetwork 62 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 1: dot Com that has like all the trends kind of 63 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: laid out, but they never used to really be the case, 64 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: like the twelve over five is also relatively a new 65 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: modern thing, which I think everyone's kind of caught on, 66 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: but I think like it might have been Yeah, I 67 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 1: think it was. You mentioned this as well, like the 68 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: thirteen to fourteen when you take each of those on 69 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 1: the money lines and things of that nature. I just 70 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: think the tournament, especially this year, when we're gonna talk 71 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: about Houston, who's only plus five to fifty, we're just 72 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 1: not used to that price as like a favorite entering 73 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: the tournament. It's usually you've got your three to ones, 74 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: your four to one, someone who's like really good, and 75 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: we've been saying it all year. The team just not there. 76 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's interesting. On Selection Sunday, one of the very 77 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 2: last games to come down to the wire was the 78 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 2: AAC title game. Houston. They've been carrying the banner as 79 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 2: the number one team at least by Vegas Power ratings 80 00:03:57,640 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 2: just for the entire season. They go down by I 81 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 2: want to say, double digits to Memphis, and the national 82 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 2: reaction was, yep, that's this season. It's absolutely insane at 83 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 2: this point, which brings us to one of the first 84 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 2: buckets of data that you went through, which is, can 85 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 2: you look to any particular conference, the AAC, you know, 86 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 2: being on the outside of that power six, it is 87 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 2: that a hindrance to a team like Houston or playing 88 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 2: from you know, a power conference like the Big twelve 89 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 2: where you battle tested. When you go through the overall 90 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 2: performances by conference, what are some things that jump out 91 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 2: to you? And I'll say this through the lens of 92 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 2: what's always jumped out to me is when any time 93 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 2: Bill Walton says the Conference of Champions, well not since 94 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 2: nineteen ninety seven. Bill, that's the last time a Pac 95 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 2: twelve team cut down the nets as the national champion. 96 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: I was gonna say, yeah, the stat that I love 97 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:43,720 Speaker 1: that I kind of use as a table setter. And 98 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: you know, things are great when they continue right until 99 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: someone wins it and then the trend ends. But at 100 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: the current moment, Arizona one that won the national title 101 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: back in nineteen ninety seven. No team has won the 102 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: championship west of Texas since then. So your u CLA's 103 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 1: your gonzagas. Any when you can think of on the 104 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: west side of the United States hasn't won the title 105 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: in a long time. So, I mean it's a little 106 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: bit weird. You try to look at a map and 107 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 1: say to yourself, Okay, how many teams actually fall west 108 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: of that? But when you do think about your Arizona's 109 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 1: and your PAC twelve and things of that nature, it 110 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 1: is interesting. The one thing you will see everywhere, Mike, 111 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 1: and I know I went to Indiana as a person 112 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 1: of the Big Ten. I know this as well. Beaton 113 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: hasn't won the title since two thousand, which every year 114 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: you hear it is like, how is that possible? Matteen Cleaves, 115 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: tom Izzo. That was the last time that conference won 116 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 1: the title. And then you start to look at even 117 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: the SEC twenty twelve Kentucky, and you think about those 118 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: teams who have been at the top, with the Auburns 119 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: and the Tennessees. Hasn't happened in a long time. And 120 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: I think from an ATS perspective, and it's been talked 121 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: about really all day, and I actually think it's actually funny. 122 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 1: Most of us will look at the matchups this year 123 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: and probably prefer them out West, but they're three and 124 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 1: eleven against the spread in the dance since twenty sixteen, 125 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 1: so some crazy stuff. 126 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's difficult to get excited about those West 127 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 2: Coast teams or the teams in the Rockies region just 128 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 2: because of how difficult it's been for them to string 129 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 2: wins together. I don't know if there's so much that 130 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 2: you can put into where some of these venues are selected. 131 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:22,359 Speaker 2: You look at the travel, and it's not just for 132 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 2: the teams, but it's also for the fan bases, where 133 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 2: you can, you know, start to rack up those thousand 134 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 2: mile trips pretty quickly, and the tournament committee tries their 135 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: best to balance it out with the first and second 136 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,040 Speaker 2: round venues. But when you look at the map, you 137 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 2: can go on too Wikipedia and see where those you know, 138 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 2: thumbtacks are put. Most of them are east of the Mississippi. 139 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 2: So it is interesting in terms of travel, not just 140 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 2: for the teams and coaches, but also for the fans. 141 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 2: All right, let's get into someone else in terms of 142 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 2: how rare champions are to come from outside of that 143 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:56,080 Speaker 2: quote unquote elite fraternity. So it's not just the blue bloods. 144 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 2: It's on a yearly basis, you generally think to yourself, 145 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 2: you know, those one to two in three seeds, they're 146 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 2: all priced. You know, twenty to one or shorter. Is 147 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:05,600 Speaker 2: the winner going to come out of there, or am 148 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 2: I going to be able to cash in on a 149 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 2: Yukon dream run when they hit for one hundred to one? 150 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 2: Or you know, some of these teams. North Carolina almost 151 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 2: cut down the nets last year, had a halftime lead 152 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 2: in the title game, they came out of nowhere. So 153 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 2: how rare is it actually for one of these programs 154 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 2: to win from way back in the pack. 155 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: So I think you'll always start with the unicorn. You'll 156 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 1: start with the one team who kind of went against 157 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,240 Speaker 1: the grain and did it all, and that was Yukon 158 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen. They were one hundred to one and 159 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: during the tournament, and they are the only triple digits, 160 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: triple digit future odds to win it all, so they're 161 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: kind of your unicorn. And then moving beyond Yukon, twenty 162 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 1: to one or higher has only happened four times. So 163 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 1: that's the twenty fourteen Yukon team, the twenty eleven Yukon team, 164 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: and then you've got to go all the way back 165 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: to Nova in eighty five and NC State in eighty three. 166 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: Those are the only four times that it's happened at 167 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 1: twenty to one to higher and higher, So I think 168 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: that's interesting but again, even if you dip it down 169 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 1: a little bit, we've had forty four NCAA tournament champions 170 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: since that nineteen seventy eight eight. Only nine entered the 171 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: tournament fifteen to one or higher, so about twenty percent. 172 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 2: It's interesting too, you get into how rare it is 173 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 2: for one of those pre tournament favorites to get knocked 174 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 2: out in the first weekends. You know, if you're traveling 175 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 2: in the Midwest and you say Ali Farukmanesh, that'll bring 176 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 2: out strong emotions one way or the other if you're 177 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 2: talking to a sports fan. So how often do those 178 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 2: teams actually get booted? Because this year the buzz is palpable, 179 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 2: the top teams are vulnerable, there's no super team. So 180 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 2: is there an actual chance for a team to lose 181 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 2: before getting out of the first weekend? And if so, 182 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 2: how rare would that be? An historical perspective in. 183 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 1: A blanket statement, the last pre tournament favorites to lose 184 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 1: in the first weekend since nineteen ninety were Kansas in 185 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 1: twenty ten. So again it's been twelve thirteen years since 186 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 1: we had that happen, So we've even though we've seen 187 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: those Virginia's things like that go down that real team 188 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 1: at the top tends to advance through, So twenty ten Kansas, 189 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: two thousand and four Kentucky, and then you've got to 190 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: go all the way back to ninety four UNC, so 191 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 1: really only twice in the last you know, twenty thirty years. 192 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 2: You spoke earlier about Houston and how it relates to 193 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 2: their future z Odds, which essentially I don't have the 194 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 2: numbers in front of me, but I want to say 195 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,319 Speaker 2: they opened in that ten to eleven to one range 196 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 2: and I just slowly ticked down but basically hit a 197 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,440 Speaker 2: wall at six to one. Never got any lower than 198 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 2: that on the season. Is that typical or is that 199 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 2: something where usually you have to pay a premium to 200 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 2: get a team that has been number one for the 201 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 2: majority of the season. They're both top ten in offensive 202 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 2: defensive efficiency, Generally you have to overpay for that. 203 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 1: Right usually, And let's just hone in on that. It's 204 00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,319 Speaker 1: really six to one plus five fifty number. It was 205 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: six to one earlier this morning, and it's funny it 206 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 1: actually moved to five point fifty as the bracket was 207 00:09:56,679 --> 00:09:58,719 Speaker 1: getting announced, kind of giving it a little bit of 208 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 1: tax up. But it's been interesting. Forty five tournaments in 209 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy eight, the pre tournament favorite has been six 210 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 1: to one or lower only ten times. So basically, plus 211 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,120 Speaker 1: six hundred was nineteen ninety four. UNC. Aside from that, 212 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: plus five fifties only happened three times, Houston this year, 213 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 1: NOVA in twenty eighteen, and UNC in twenty seventeen. So, 214 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: like I said, we always tend to see that plus 215 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 1: three hundred, that plus four hundred, that team that kind 216 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: of raises above them all and was a guaranteed one 217 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,319 Speaker 1: seed this year. I think we were debating the four 218 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 1: to one seeds really up into the selection. 219 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 2: Earlier. I kind of wanted to tease out the idea 220 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 2: that modern college basketball, by opening up, has opened up 221 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 2: to the Cinderella. So let's zoom out. Not necessarily from 222 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:48,319 Speaker 2: a national championship perspective, but winning four games is a 223 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 2: huge accomplishment. It can change your school's profile. Just ask 224 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:54,439 Speaker 2: loyal a Chicago, how rare is it for a team 225 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 2: that is really lucratively priced out of the market to 226 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 2: make the Final four? How often is that happening? And 227 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 2: have you seen an uptick in let's say the last 228 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 2: fifteen years. 229 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: It's insane, Mike, and I'll just start here. When I 230 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 1: went back and started to look at the future odds 231 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: for all of these teams dating back eighties, seventies, things 232 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 1: of that nature. The Texas Southerns, like the teams who 233 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,440 Speaker 1: now you would see as the fifteen to sixteen seed 234 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:21,079 Speaker 1: only opened at two hundred to one, two hundred and 235 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 1: fifty to one, three hundred and one to win the tournament. 236 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: Now you're looking at, you know, two thousand to one, 237 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 1: three thousand to one, so you know, based off of 238 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 1: the legalization of betting, I think we've seen a large 239 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: tick in actually the odds of these teams in the tournament. 240 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 1: So when you look at since two thousand nine, teams 241 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,439 Speaker 1: have made the final four at odds of a one 242 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: twenty five or higher, which is actually pretty frequent. Loyal 243 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 1: Chicago's three hundred and eighty to one VCU three hundred 244 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,319 Speaker 1: to one South Carolina in twenty seventeen, two hundred and 245 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 1: eighty to one, so the George Mason's even and I 246 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,560 Speaker 1: think this might be the crazier part. You've even seen 247 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: it from the Carolinas and the UCLAs, like even the 248 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: blue Bloods have found their way to have those high 249 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:04,560 Speaker 1: odds and make it to the final four. So opportunity right, 250 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 1: and again the rollover right, maybe even higher for some 251 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 1: of those teams. 252 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, the rollover is interesting. It's a point that Stucky 253 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 2: brings up a lot on our Big Bets on campus 254 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 2: podcasts where try to just you know, figure out the 255 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 2: back of the napkin math because in some cases, just 256 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 2: rolling over those winnings into the next money line and 257 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 2: having an opportunity without a hedge to pull out of 258 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 2: a run at any point that can be more lucrative 259 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 2: and give you more flexibility. So just another you know, 260 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 2: gambling tool that you should have in your toolbox, as 261 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,400 Speaker 2: you know, put together not just your bracket, but also 262 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 2: your individual plays for teams to potentially get to the 263 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 2: second weekend, get to the final four. Speaking of long shots, 264 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 2: how do underdogs perform in general? Because I think there's 265 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 2: a tendency at this time of year the publicity goes 266 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 2: to the upset, the publicity goes to the Cinderella that's 267 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 2: making the run. But do they actually cash out at 268 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 2: the window or is there a certain point in the 269 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 2: tournament where these Cinderellas go to die, even from and 270 00:12:57,400 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 2: against the spread perspective, what do you find through that research? 271 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 1: The one O their tip I'll give as well. If 272 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: you're gonna put it like a really big long shot 273 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 1: in split the tickets, especially at these books that allow 274 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 1: you to get some cash outs and stuff like that. 275 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: If you're gonna put fifty dollars on a future, you know, 276 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: thirty twenty, and you might find yourself in an opportunity 277 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 1: as well. So that's one thing as well. But let's 278 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: just talk about underdogs. As you said, as a whole. 279 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: They've actually been above five hundred and seven of the 280 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,199 Speaker 1: last NCAA tournaments seven the last eight nca tournaments, including 281 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: the last five straight just strictly blindly betting underdogs, and 282 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: in the last eight tournaments, underdogs actually have a small edge, 283 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 1: with a cover rate just under fifty three percent, So 284 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,079 Speaker 1: there is an edge, it is small, but each of 285 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,400 Speaker 1: those tournaments have all shown a profit. And I don't 286 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 1: think that's really shocking, right, I Mean, each time we 287 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: go into these I tend to think that the lines 288 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: kind of get bett down and I kind of think 289 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: that the bigger favorites tend to become smaller in these areas. 290 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: As ten teams tend to pluck out underdogs. And the 291 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 1: one note I will add in the last five tournaments, 292 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: the most profitable round for dog us sweet sixteen and 293 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: round to sixty four. So we tend to see the 294 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: dogs come through in the round of sixty four and 295 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: then kind of die out in the round of thirty two. 296 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:10,559 Speaker 1: We see that most years. 297 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, that was one piece of information just looking at 298 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 2: the raw data that you provided that really popped out 299 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 2: to me. Because you have the emotional elements almost kind 300 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 2: of resetting yourself. Can you get beyond this idea of 301 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 2: we just had one of the biggest wins in program history. 302 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 2: Now we have to get back up for another team 303 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 2: that's also probably going to be higher seated if we're 304 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 2: coming from the back of the pack. And you know 305 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 2: at this point as well, looking at the Sweet sixteen, 306 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 2: you get that four to five day break, you get 307 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 2: to travel, in some cases, you go home, You get 308 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:41,480 Speaker 2: to reset, you know, emotionally. I know it's something that's 309 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 2: a little bit mushy and a little bit difficult to quantify, 310 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 2: but I do think from a human nature perspective that 311 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 2: does actually make sense. So when looking at the Sweet sixteen, 312 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 2: I think I'll kind of recalibrate my expectations there speaking 313 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 2: of coaches and kind of, you know, trying to guide 314 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 2: these nineteen twenty twenty one year olds through the emotional 315 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 2: roller coaster for some some of them. These head coaches 316 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 2: are doing it for the very first time, and at 317 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 2: the college football level. I am very adamant about backing 318 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 2: coaches that are battle tested that I've seen how they're 319 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 2: going to play call. I've seen how they handle clock 320 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 2: management in the last two minutes of has all these 321 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,000 Speaker 2: different elements of situational football. I want to see how 322 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 2: they handle the pressure. College basketball is a little bit different. 323 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 2: I do know that march madness can become a half 324 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 2: court grind, a lot of reviews, a lot of stoppages. 325 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 2: So there's an opportunity if you're a really good coach 326 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 2: from an nex's nose perspective, to kind of flex a 327 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 2: little bit and give your team a little bit of 328 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 2: a boost. But in general, my outsider expertise on this 329 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 2: is that so many teams, it's more of a philosophy, 330 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 2: it's more of a motional offense. It's more of a 331 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 2: always be running, or let's focus on this, as opposed 332 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 2: to I'm a pure tactician. So with all that being said, 333 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 2: how have first year coaches performed in the tournament? Is 334 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 2: there anything that you can circle as either a plus 335 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 2: or minus? 336 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: And the one thing I will say, which I do 337 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: think you said and I agree with them, is true, 338 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: is like there's almost three seasons when you're a coach, 339 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: especially early on. It's the regular season, it's a conference tournament, 340 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: and it's the NCAA Tournament. And I think there's different 341 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 1: styles and all three of those different seasons. So I 342 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: think without having that NA tournament experience, you can have 343 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: your Saint Peter's and things like that happen sometimes, but again, 344 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: since nineteen eighty five, only five Elite eight appearances for 345 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 1: coaches in their first D one season, and we saw 346 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: it with Hubert Hubert Davis last year, but after that 347 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: it's two thousand and two, so it really just doesn't happen. 348 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: And I think that's one thing to look at, especially 349 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: when you have to You know, you can win a game, 350 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: you can win two games, but I think after you 351 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 1: get really the preparation that's needed to win those second 352 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: and third tier games, that's when you see most of 353 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 1: the teams die off. 354 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 2: What's interesting at this time of year is that everyone 355 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 2: gets so laser focused on the seed. You know, this 356 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 2: is a four seed as opposed to a six seed, 357 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 2: as opposed to a ten seed, when in reality, I 358 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 2: think a lot of people would be surprised to find 359 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 2: out in terms of the advanced metrics and also the 360 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 2: APN Coaches polls, some times those teams that are on 361 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 2: different lines may only be three or four numbers away 362 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 2: in an EP pole. So from a ranked versus unranked perspective, 363 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 2: if you just zoom out and look at it there, 364 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 2: as college football does all the time, as so many 365 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 2: other college sports do, they really focus on the national 366 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,919 Speaker 2: ranking versus unranked. Is there any correlation between performance on 367 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 2: that level? 368 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,120 Speaker 1: There definitely is, and I think it works the way 369 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: it tends to work sometimes in college football. It's funny 370 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:27,719 Speaker 1: when you will open up the action app you have 371 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:29,959 Speaker 1: and you look at the matchups one by one by 372 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 1: one for the NCAA tournament. On the left hand side, 373 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: you have the ranking, the AP rank versus the seed rank, 374 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:37,159 Speaker 1: and it's funny to see a lot of those teams 375 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: in like really tight spread games because the public tends 376 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 1: to like those teams so if you look over the 377 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 1: last decade, ranked teams are hitting just forty three percent 378 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: against the spread of the NCAA tournament versus unranked opponents. 379 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: A one hundred dollars better will be down almost two 380 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: grand in that span. So I think over a large 381 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,199 Speaker 1: sample size, again, the public tends to beef up some 382 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 1: of those ranked some of those teams that might have 383 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,119 Speaker 1: a number next to them that might be looking better, 384 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:06,320 Speaker 1: and they don't really cover. 385 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 2: All Right, We've got into a lot of the seating, 386 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 2: a lot of the national ranking, how it relates to 387 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 2: futures odds. But let's go off the board here. What's 388 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 2: something that you've noticed from a statistical deep dive perspective 389 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 2: that you've mined out that maybe you want to keep 390 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 2: a little bit close to your best, but you're gonna 391 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 2: go ahead and share with our audience because it is profitable. 392 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 2: What's a trend that popped out to you. 393 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 1: So let's just look at it as a blanket point 394 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 1: of view first, and then we'll kind of hone in 395 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 1: the blanket point of first half unders tend to be 396 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: a profitable trend in March madness overall. Now, listen, you're 397 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: going to have your higher numbers or lower numbers, and 398 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:42,640 Speaker 1: it's going to go up and down based off day. 399 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 1: But overall, teams tend to be a little bit colder 400 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: early on, tend to find their steam, and you tend 401 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 1: to find second half overs. But like I said, if 402 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 1: you hone in using our bet lab system, which you 403 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 1: can go online and check it all out. Since twenty eleven, 404 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,959 Speaker 1: March Madness game is a tip before two pm Eastern 405 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:04,200 Speaker 1: that have a first half total under seventy sixty six 406 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,200 Speaker 1: percent to the under an ROI of twenty five percent. 407 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 1: So really, what's that telling you? Early games, low total 408 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: games already kind of predicting that type of nature, and 409 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 1: those games tend to go under as well. 410 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 2: I'm not sure if you've attended March Madness in person, 411 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 2: but I've you know, made it to everywhere from the 412 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 2: first rounds all the way through the regionals. Have not 413 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 2: attendant the final four in person. But what I can 414 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 2: tell you is that particularly early on in that round 415 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,120 Speaker 2: of sixty four, when you get there for the first game, 416 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,159 Speaker 2: there may be a game at twelve and three and 417 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 2: then a break. Sometimes there's a late arriving crowd, and 418 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 2: I think there is an element to we're on the 419 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 2: biggest stage in college sports. You know, we've for some 420 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 2: of the underdog teams, those twelve through sixteen seats, this 421 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 2: is their moment they've lived their whole life for. And 422 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 2: it's a forty percent capacity for a noon tip off. 423 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 2: I absolutely have to believe that it plays into a 424 00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 2: little bit of the energy. And you can see it 425 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 2: as well, when a crowd doesn't necessarily have a rooting interest, 426 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 2: all of a sudden, they'll just start going for the 427 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 2: underdog because hey, it's Marshmados, it's fun and you can 428 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 2: see that energy, that juice get shot into a team. 429 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:12,719 Speaker 2: I saw it last year. I was at the regional 430 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 2: in Philadelphia when Saint Pete's won in the sweet sixteen, 431 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 2: and basically once they were in it in the second half, 432 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 2: the audience was like, Okay, we just have to back 433 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 2: the peacocks here. So it can be interesting from a 434 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 2: timing perspective when to go ahead and fade a hot 435 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 2: start as opposed to, you know, looking for a lot 436 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 2: of points right off the bat. 437 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,400 Speaker 1: The interesting thing about that, as well as the stadiums 438 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: like where they're actually playing, A lot of research should 439 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: be done there because some of these places don't house 440 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 1: college basketball games all the time or depending on the format, 441 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 1: it just those are things I like to look into 442 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 1: as well, based off of just where the total is 443 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: in the game. 444 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 2: Speaking of Saint Pete's, this one caught my eye. You 445 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 2: pulled this from the bet Labs database. After a team 446 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 2: pulls off a double digit points spread upset at the 447 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 2: NCAA tournament. They are three and seventeen straight up and 448 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 2: five and fifteen. Again, it's the spread in the following 449 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:05,959 Speaker 2: rounds dating back to twenty fifteen. Sometimes I do believe, 450 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 2: as we've mentioned before, that you spend all that emotional capital. 451 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,679 Speaker 2: Is there anything else that you saw in that data 452 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 2: in terms of their performance that broke down maybe to 453 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,399 Speaker 2: a first half play or a situational play. I do 454 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 2: know that a lot of sports books are starting to 455 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 2: offer the race to ten bet and some of that 456 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 2: micro betting options. Was there anything that you saw from 457 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:27,119 Speaker 2: that perspective? 458 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: Two things I'll add is that trend pretty much matches 459 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,160 Speaker 1: up well with the first half as well. So those 460 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,679 Speaker 1: teams you tend to struggle in that game after the 461 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 1: upset tend to struggle kind of overall throughout the game. 462 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 1: It's just hard to get up again. And I'll add 463 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: those teams were zero to nine straight up between two 464 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 1: thousand and five and twenty thirteen, and then you had 465 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 1: Florida Golf Coast. But I think that is the thing 466 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: that's interesting, is Florida Golf Coast. They're a blip on 467 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:55,199 Speaker 1: the radar. I think the trend actually is stronger than 468 00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: the blip. So I think finding those teams who do 469 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: pull off those big upsets, especially the emotional ones for 470 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 1: maybe schools haven't been to the tournament a long time, 471 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 1: I think it's tough to turn her around in that 472 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: amount of time. 473 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 2: It's been a semi recent development, the first four and 474 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 2: the expansion to not only have the play in for 475 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 2: the eleven seeds but also for the sixteen seed. In 476 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 2: some cases, there's been a launching pad for these eleven 477 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 2: seeds and having that opportunity where if a team goes 478 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,679 Speaker 2: out early in one of the major conference tournaments the 479 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 2: week before, they can go a week plus without playing. 480 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,439 Speaker 2: They're playing against a team that, yes, they may have 481 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 2: to board a bus or get on a plane after 482 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 2: winning a dating, but all of a sudden they have 483 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,239 Speaker 2: a little bit of wins in their sales. Was there 484 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 2: anything from the first four that you saw that maybe 485 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 2: you circle and gives you a little bit of a 486 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 2: double clutch on your bracket before you put that six 487 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 2: seed past the eleven that wins the play in. 488 00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:49,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, so twenty three of the forty four winners from 489 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 1: the first four or non sixteen seeds, you might as 490 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 1: well look at those so we can kind of take 491 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 1: those sixteen seeds out of the pack. What I want 492 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 1: to look at is the nine of those twenty three 493 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,439 Speaker 1: that advanced and kind of try to figure out is 494 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,280 Speaker 1: there anything of those teams that you could have gleamed 495 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,159 Speaker 1: in the past. And the two things I think that 496 00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:10,359 Speaker 1: are kind of interesting. Eight of nine had round to 497 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 1: sixty four games, which spreads under seven. So basically you 498 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 1: turned around and won in the first four, you got 499 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 1: to the round of sixty four and you just had 500 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 1: tight spreads. And then of those tight spreads. People can 501 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: throw RPI all they want around. It is interesting to 502 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 1: the fact that eight of the nine were top fifty 503 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: in RPI. The good team and the eleven seed who 504 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: kind of overachieves and starts getting hot tends to make 505 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,479 Speaker 1: a run. Four eleven seeds obviously in this tournament, and 506 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,400 Speaker 1: of those four eleven seeds top fifty RPI, that's Nevada. 507 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: So if you're looking at that trend, I think that's 508 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 1: probably one to look at if you think they can 509 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 1: make a run. 510 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,639 Speaker 2: I also know some data you had on teams that 511 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 2: end up winning the national championship. For the most part, 512 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 2: they're not going through against the spread, losing streaks on 513 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,640 Speaker 2: their way to cutting down the nets. Is it something 514 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,399 Speaker 2: that potentially could be warning flag? You have a lot 515 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 2: of teams that are susceptible at the top. Kansas can 516 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 2: struggle shooting from three point range on the glass. Alabama 517 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,359 Speaker 2: nearly lost to Arkansas, to South Carolina, They've gone through 518 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 2: a lot of off court issues as well, So the 519 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 2: question is how are they going to handle the pressure 520 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 2: of marshmadness. You basically go down the entire list of 521 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,639 Speaker 2: the one seeds. Houston was in multiple dog fights with Memphis. 522 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 2: They lost to Temple out right, so they put it 523 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 2: on film that they can be beat by teams that 524 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 2: are not exactly in the elite conversation headed into at 525 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 2: the tournament. So is there anything a canary and the 526 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 2: coal mine, so to speak, that we should keep an 527 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 2: eye on for those top seeds. If they're just squeaking 528 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,680 Speaker 2: by in the round of sixty four and thirty two. 529 00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 1: I mean, the way I look at it is those 530 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 1: tight wins by one seeds, two seeds, and three seeds, 531 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: I tend to fade them in the round of thirty 532 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: two and it works long term. That's exactly what you're 533 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,240 Speaker 1: looking for. You're looking for that team to lose by 534 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 1: one to two or three, and you tend to find 535 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: some value as they're just not as good in that 536 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 1: next round. 537 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 2: Last question I'll have here, were you from just a 538 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:04,199 Speaker 2: personal preference standpoint when filling out your bracket? Are you 539 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 2: someone who likes a contrast of styles as stuck you 540 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 2: likes to say styles make fights. And when it comes 541 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,200 Speaker 2: to college basketball, there are a few teams in this 542 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,640 Speaker 2: field of sixty eight that like to play slower. I'm 543 00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 2: looking at the you know Santa you see Santa Barbara Gauchos. 544 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 2: They like to play at a snail's pace and use 545 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 2: their defense. Virginia, certainly under Tony Bennett, at the higher 546 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,040 Speaker 2: level of basketball, likes to play that pack line defense 547 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:31,320 Speaker 2: and maximize the value of every single stop as opposed 548 00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 2: to these Gonzaga's teams that want to get into a 549 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 2: track meet with you. Is that something that comes into 550 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,679 Speaker 2: play for you before you even start filling out the 551 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 2: bracket just philosophically, or do you like to look at 552 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:43,360 Speaker 2: it as a clean slate every time that you fill 553 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:44,960 Speaker 2: out a bracket year over year. 554 00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 1: I think momentum to me, momentum and offensive rebounding. I 555 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 1: mean everyone talks about their four factors or what type 556 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 1: of different stats that you look for. It's kind of 557 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 1: the way I bet conference tournaments as well, Like I 558 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 1: want really good defensive teams who offensive rebound well, it 559 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: just gives me more chances. I mean you've heard about 560 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,120 Speaker 1: the you know, top thirty in offense and top thirty 561 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,239 Speaker 1: in defense, those are like the only teams that can 562 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,439 Speaker 1: win it all, like all sorts of different caveats, But 563 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,679 Speaker 1: to me, I always just look for more opportunities. And 564 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:14,679 Speaker 1: the one thing I will say and I agree with 565 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 1: is the high totals between high paced teams and low 566 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 1: paced teams. I tend to bet unders. I tend to 567 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,159 Speaker 1: think that that style tends to ground down, especially in 568 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 1: the tournament. 569 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,680 Speaker 2: We'll get you out of here on this one. Now 570 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 2: that you have all this information at your fingertips, is 571 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 2: it easier or harder to fill out your bracket? Because 572 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 2: you know, sometimes you have the ghost of previous mistakes, 573 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,680 Speaker 2: you know, rearing their head. And then finally, is there 574 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,119 Speaker 2: a team maybe outside of the top two seeds that 575 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:47,199 Speaker 2: you look at saying they have the statistical profile, the 576 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 2: DNA of a lot of teams that I've gone through. 577 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,080 Speaker 1: Well, I'll start by saying this the one, and I'm 578 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 1: going to give you a Cinderella just because I gave 579 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,919 Speaker 1: it out earlier. I like Iona, like I kind of 580 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 1: just like the format that they run in. I like 581 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,080 Speaker 1: their pace, I like the team, and I think they 582 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 1: do have a chance to kind of make a run. Now, 583 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 1: I liked UAB. That didn't work out for me. I 584 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 1: thought Jelly was going to get in. It didn't work out, 585 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,439 Speaker 1: I think, But I think i Own is good and 586 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 1: I think they can. I think they're good. I kind 587 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: of like Arizona. Like, I like them winning the Pac twelve. 588 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 1: I like them kind of getting over that hump and 589 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,880 Speaker 1: the kind I like the path. And now again people 590 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,440 Speaker 1: are going to say Utah State, but I think Arizona 591 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 1: has a shot. 592 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, Arizona certainly when they're playing their best basketball. I 593 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 2: think that you can put them in that small elite 594 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 2: group with teams like Alabama and Houston, where when it's 595 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,520 Speaker 2: really working for them offensively, it can feel like an 596 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 2: insurmountable task to run past them. So I agree with 597 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,639 Speaker 2: that assessment. Creighton is one of those teams that you 598 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 2: brought up a little shout out to Ken Palm, top 599 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,160 Speaker 2: thirty in offensive end defensive efficiency. They have a head 600 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 2: coach who's never made a deep deep run even when 601 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 2: he had Dougie Buckets. You know, his son playing for him, 602 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 2: but he's also a coach that hasn't flamed out all 603 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,159 Speaker 2: that early. That would probably be the last thing that 604 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 2: I would bring up in our conversation is that I 605 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 2: like to track the coaches just because over time, you 606 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 2: can kind of get a monkey on your back out 607 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:08,960 Speaker 2: of getting out of the first round, and Shaka Smart 608 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:10,919 Speaker 2: has one of those on his back right now. He 609 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,760 Speaker 2: hasn't won a first round game in March Madness since 610 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,119 Speaker 2: twenty thirteen, So even though he's well positioned with Marquette, 611 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,120 Speaker 2: they really put it together on the offensive end. They're 612 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 2: elite in that way. I think that's a consideration when 613 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 2: it comes to coaches that not only have the confidence 614 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,399 Speaker 2: to instill in their players, but have the confidence in 615 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:29,440 Speaker 2: themselves to get out of that. Is that something that's 616 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 2: overblown in your opinion, or do you think there is 617 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 2: something to be said for regular season conference tournament coaches 618 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,639 Speaker 2: and then a totally different breed that coach you can 619 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 2: wipe the slate clean and really go to work in 620 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 2: March madness. 621 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,240 Speaker 1: I do think there's a trend there. I mean every year, 622 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: I say to myself, Rick Barnes's time, He's going to 623 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 1: get over everything that's happened in the past. But if 624 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 1: you look at this stat from Shaka one in seven 625 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 1: straight up two and six against the spread in the 626 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 1: NCAA tournament as a favorite or a dog of less 627 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,720 Speaker 1: than four points, which means you know you're supposed to 628 00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: win the game or you're in a toss up and 629 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 1: he's done a really bad job. So that stuff just 630 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: really scares me. Especially and listen, I like Marquette. I 631 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: liked and every one of his teams seems to get 632 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 1: there and sometimes you know, they do make a run, 633 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 1: but usually usually he finds a way to get himself 634 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 1: out of there. 635 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,360 Speaker 2: This has been the Action Network podcast presented by fan 636 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 2: Duel for Evan Abrams on Mike Calvbry's of the Action Network. 637 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 2: This has been our March Madness bracket guide. Hopefully all 638 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 2: of the statistical nuggets we brought to the service can 639 00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,520 Speaker 2: help you fill out your bracket. A reminder, all the picks, 640 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 2: the analysis, you know, everything that gets tracked all through 641 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 2: the Action Network app. And then when it comes to 642 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,400 Speaker 2: filling out your bracket and making bets on individual games 643 00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,280 Speaker 2: in this year's tournament, Big Bets on Campus has you 644 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 2: covered soup to nuts from the first four all the 645 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 2: way through the national championship game. We're going to be 646 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 2: throwing so much content at you in the next few 647 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 2: weeks and certainly in the next few days, so be 648 00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,280 Speaker 2: sure to update your podcast feeds because it's going to 649 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,800 Speaker 2: becoming fast and furious. Thanks so much for listening, and 650 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 2: best of luck filling out your bracket. 651 00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 652 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 653 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 654 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:12,320 Speaker 2: hundred Gambler