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Speaker 1: Oh right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. Today,

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Speaker 1: we're talking baseball with our favorite bets to make in

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Speaker 1: the MLB futures market before opening day. I'm your host

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Speaker 1: Seth Wilcock, and I'm joined by two of the best

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Speaker 1: in the business, including the host of Leading Off, Chris Welsh.

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Speaker 1: Ak B Welsh. What's going on today, bal.

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Speaker 2: Aw Man Baseball. I am very, very excited. I'm excited

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Speaker 2: to get all these future bets. I'm excited to talk

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Speaker 2: about them, I'm excited to lay them. But I'm also

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Speaker 2: excited for daily baseball betting. And I know a lot

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Speaker 2: of people don't get into that and a lot of

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Speaker 2: people get scared. Don't be scared. There's so much to

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Speaker 2: get excited about, whether you want to play some public

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Speaker 2: nerfees or you want to get into the deeper fun

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Speaker 2: stuff like first fives. I'm very excited for futures and

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Speaker 2: for in season betting.

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Speaker 1: My friend, Yeah, just a couple of days away from

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Speaker 1: opening day, so excited to break it down with you. Welsh.

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Speaker 1: Also locked in with us today is a man who's

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Speaker 1: already got that baseball flow going as we round out

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Speaker 1: spring training. Joe Rico. Joe Thanks for jumping on today.

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Speaker 1: How are you? As we sit just days away from

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Speaker 1: a full slate of regular season.

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Speaker 3: Baseball outside of the Jared Jones and Shane McClanahan shares

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Speaker 3: that I have, I'm doing pretty all right.

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Speaker 4: I got one more draft for the season.

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Speaker 3: It's on Wednesday, But man, I just need the season

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Speaker 3: to start because we're gonna talk about players today. I

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Speaker 3: just hope nobody gets hurt before the show gets posted

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Speaker 3: the way that things have gone the last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 3: But very excited to be joining you fellas today.

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Speaker 4: Very excited.

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Speaker 2: I sadly I had. It's kind of a fun little market.

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Speaker 2: They'll post the like, you know, said player to get

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Speaker 2: to this amount of stats, Like if you were to

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Speaker 2: just bet like their normal season totals, it's usually like

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Speaker 2: a minus money, you know. So like one I like

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Speaker 2: I talked to this on Fantasy Fest was Michael tolia Over.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a twenty three point five homers or

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Speaker 2: twenty even twenty four, it doesn't matter to me. Crush

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Speaker 2: love those minus moneies. But you can go in a

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Speaker 2: lot of these different books, you can go and check

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Speaker 2: out the market for this player to let's say, hit

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Speaker 2: twenty five homers or thirty homers, and sometimes you can

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Speaker 2: get plus. But the best thing is to let you

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Speaker 2: pair them together a little seed. It's similar to like

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Speaker 2: you're putting together like a prize picks or an underdogers

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Speaker 2: sure that you can do. In the books, I had

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Speaker 2: a magnificent one, magnificent one that had Jared Jones in

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Speaker 2: and that one is that one was killed before the

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Speaker 2: season started. That's what happens when you're like Icarus and

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Speaker 2: you get too close to the sun with a picture.

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Speaker 2: Shouldn't have done it. I learned my lesson, but I

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Speaker 2: still got a couple more though.

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Speaker 1: Jared Jones, Well, I'm a Pirates fan over here, so

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Speaker 1: I'm pouring out an icy light for our guy Jared

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Speaker 1: Jones on today's show. It looks like this will break

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Speaker 1: down the following betting markets, MVP CY Young season win

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Speaker 1: totals and to make the playoffs division winners, World Series winners,

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Speaker 1: and we'll round it out with our favorite long shot futures.

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Speaker 1: As always, thank you so much for hanging out with us,

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Speaker 1: either on the benk Pros YouTube channel or the audio feed.

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Speaker 1: As always, the easiest way to support us is to

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Speaker 1: give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this

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Speaker 1: type of content. Also subscribe to the channel if you're new.

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Speaker 1: And all right, gentlemen, let's go ahead and jump into

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Speaker 1: the MVP picks looking at the odds. Starting in the

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Speaker 1: Al Ragning al MVP and Judge of the Yankees, he's

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Speaker 1: the favorite at plus three ten, with Bobby Witt Junior

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Speaker 1: of the Royals plus four fifty, Gunner Henderson of the

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Speaker 1: Orioles plus eight fifty not too far behind. And then

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Speaker 1: on the NL side of things, we have reigning NL

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Speaker 1: MVP Sho Heo Tani of the Daughters plus one seventy

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Speaker 1: and his return to two way play, and Juan Soto

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Speaker 1: who just got a massive payday from the Mets plus

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Speaker 1: six hundred and Fernando Tatis Junior of the Padres at

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Speaker 1: ten to one. Well, should you see any value here

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Speaker 1: with the favorites?

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Speaker 2: So in the NL, no, I don't, because shoe Heotan,

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Speaker 2: I mean if you here's a positive, look you get

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Speaker 2: plus money for Sho Hao Tani, I mean that's a

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Speaker 2: positive at least you're getting and it's not minus money

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Speaker 2: At this point. Joe Pizzapia has said this a whole

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Speaker 2: lot where I'm not necessarily sure I'm in this market.

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Speaker 2: But he's been taking show Haotani and pairing it with

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Speaker 2: whichever of his AL favorites are, and you're getting good money.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the the odds really kind of work

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Speaker 2: out to where it's probably working. But I think I

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Speaker 2: think if you want to speculate, if you're in a huge,

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Speaker 2: big speculative market, person like Okay, sure, like Ronald Lacuna,

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Speaker 2: if you were to come back and this team were

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Speaker 2: to start to getting on a tear, yeah, you're getting

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Speaker 2: you're getting good potential returns in the NL, but I

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Speaker 2: don't I don't think I'm going to do it, and

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Speaker 2: I don't think there's a lot of great return. The

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Speaker 2: ALS is a completely different conversation because it's more open.

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Speaker 2: You're starting around three and a half to four to

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Speaker 2: one on your MVP favorite, and that's what I like

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Speaker 2: to do, and that's where I'm at. I'm not on

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Speaker 2: the favorite, but I am at the top of the

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Speaker 2: market for my favorite in the MVP race in the

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Speaker 2: AL though not touching the NL, my friend, So I

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Speaker 2: don't know when if you want me to just jump

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Speaker 2: right into it or please go ahead all right. So again,

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Speaker 2: you know, Aaron Judge is a really great bet. I

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Speaker 2: will say I think the AL has got some funner,

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Speaker 2: deeper plays, like if you are a sicko, you could

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Speaker 2: play with like a Mike Trout. I think that's kind

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Speaker 2: of a sick o play.

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Speaker 1: That is a sicko play.

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Speaker 2: If the Angels were to make the playoffs and he

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Speaker 2: were to play a full season, I think Jose Ramirez,

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Speaker 2: after what he did last season, there's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: little like give him, you know, his flowers for this season.

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Speaker 2: And that's around like fifteen to sixteen to one. But

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Speaker 2: the one that's been staring at me all off season

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Speaker 2: long has not been Aaron Judge. It's been Bobby Witt Junior.

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Speaker 2: At four and a half to one, I think that's

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Speaker 2: a really good potential return, especially for number two on

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Speaker 2: the board where there's not a clear cut because you

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Speaker 2: know in the NL, it's like O Tawny plus like

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Speaker 2: you know, one point seven and then it goes to

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Speaker 2: seven for the next guy. Bobby Witt Junior coming off

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Speaker 2: of these thirty thirty potential seasons every single year, complete

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Speaker 2: five tool player. Also, I think the Royals are a

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Speaker 2: sneaky team. To make a pretty good push into the

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Speaker 2: playoffs this year. They've got a pretty robust minor league

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Speaker 2: system if they want to make some aggressive pushes in

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Speaker 2: season for more pitching, Jonathan Indy at the top of

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Speaker 2: the lineup is a great table setter. Let's hope Anye

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Speaker 2: pas Quentino's okay. But at the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: Bobby Witt has pushed himself every single year into that

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Speaker 2: conversation because he almost alone is carrying this team. So

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Speaker 2: I think the Yankees are on a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a down tick. Obviously, if they are to bounce back

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Speaker 2: from all their injuries, Judge is going to be a

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Speaker 2: big force of that. But I think with the Royals

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Speaker 2: potential playoff push coming, with the assets that they have

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Speaker 2: kind of built around, it's not a superstar team, but

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Speaker 2: Bobby Witt is getting superstar treatment. I think at four

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Speaker 2: and a half to one for a guy that's already

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Speaker 2: getting you know, first MVP votes from last season, I

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Speaker 2: think Bobby Wit Junior is my favorite in here. It's

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Speaker 2: not super sexy because you're you know, season long bets.

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Speaker 2: You'd love to get like eight, nine, ten to one, sure,

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Speaker 2: but four and a half to one give me Bobby

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Speaker 2: Witt Junior, al MVP.

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Speaker 1: Joe, your thoughts on Bobby Witt Junior and your al

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Speaker 1: MVP pick as well.

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Speaker 3: I second everything Welsh said. Wit is the star of

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Speaker 3: that team. He's gotten better every year. I mean, it's

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Speaker 3: funny looking back a couple of years ago, thinking like

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Speaker 3: maybe Bobby Witt can hit two forty two to fifty,

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Speaker 3: and now it's.

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Speaker 4: Like, well, maybe he's a batting title of winner and.

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Speaker 2: Maybe at three forty or three fifty.

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Speaker 3: Like it's just an unbelievable progression that he's had over

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Speaker 3: the last couple of years. And I think that there's

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Speaker 3: a very good chance that this bet comes through. Bobby

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Speaker 3: Witch was MVP worthy last season. There's just been such

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Speaker 3: juggernaut years in both leagues over the last couple of

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Speaker 3: seasons that you really need to be the forty seventy Akunya,

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Speaker 3: the fifty to fifty Oh Tawny, the sixty plus Homer

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Speaker 3: Judge seasons have been winning MVPs.

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Speaker 4: But Bobby Wood Junior, he could.

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Speaker 3: Go forty forty and hit three thirty, and I think

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Speaker 3: that would very easily put him into the conversation. I

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Speaker 3: think Judge is also interesting because he always is kind

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Speaker 3: of interesting. But as he gets older, that big body,

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Speaker 3: if it even misses twenty thirty games, which is very

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Speaker 3: reasonable to expect at his age, then you probably taking

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Speaker 3: him out of the running. He's been very healthy the

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Speaker 3: last couple of years. But I think that there is

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Speaker 3: a bit of a chance that you're taking if you're

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Speaker 3: betting on Aaron Judge, especially at just three to one.

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Speaker 3: My choice, and I promise this is not a homer pick,

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Speaker 3: although it will look like a homer pick. Vladimir Gerrero Junior,

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Speaker 3: I think is a great value for MVP. Some books

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Speaker 3: it's twelve to one, so it's fourteen. I got him

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Speaker 3: at fifteen to one, and I think if you look

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Speaker 3: at what he did last season, it was arguably the

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Speaker 3: best year of his career WRC plus at one sixty

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Speaker 3: five thirty homers I did three twenty three. I think

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Speaker 3: it was pretty much on par with what he did

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Speaker 3: in his breakout twenty twenty one, not in terms of

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Speaker 3: the homers, but in terms of the overall offensive output.

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Speaker 3: He had the highest expected batting average in baseball was

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Speaker 3: at three twenty three. I believe the batting average it's

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Speaker 3: going to be great. He's done that every year of

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Speaker 3: his career. He's a two to ninety hitter, He's a

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Speaker 3: lock for thirty plus homers. And the big thing here

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Speaker 3: is that he's in a contract year. Vladimir Guerrero Junior

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Speaker 3: is very likely going to be leaving Toronto as sad

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Speaker 3: as that'll make me over the course of the offseason,

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Speaker 3: or maybe before if he gets traded. But I think

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Speaker 3: that he is clearly, like Bobby Wood Junior, the star

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Speaker 3: of this team. The team lives and dies by Vladimir

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Speaker 3: Guerrero Junior. If he is able to push forty home

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Speaker 3: runs while keeping that batting average where it's been the

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Speaker 3: last couple of years, I think there's a very good

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Speaker 3: chance he does win MVP. He's already got a runner

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Speaker 3: up and a sixth place finish. He's only twenty five

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Speaker 3: years old. I think that this sky is the limit

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Speaker 3: for Vladdie in this year. He's got a little bit

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Speaker 3: extra to kind of play for with that contract being

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Speaker 3: on the table.

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Speaker 2: Joy, can I ask you real quick, I got one

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Speaker 2: thing I'm gonna tease this real quick. I got a

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Speaker 2: super super deep name I'm going to throw into this

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Speaker 2: because I'm not a big deep game fisher. Here in

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Speaker 2: this market. But if you want to speculate, do you

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Speaker 2: at all go and do like because yours just a

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Speaker 2: little bit deeper, like fourteen to one on Vlad, it's

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Speaker 2: a little bit deeper. Do you also, do you ever

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Speaker 2: play like a hedge where you go and let's say

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Speaker 2: you really like Judge or Bobby Witt and you bet

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Speaker 2: both of them. It takes a little bit of the

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Speaker 2: shine off of the fourteen to one, but you're still

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Speaker 2: getting it about ten to one. If you were to

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Speaker 2: bet Vlad and Bobby Witt Junior, and if you bet

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Speaker 2: your same unit price, you're only taking a little bit

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Speaker 2: off of the far element and you're taking you're still

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Speaker 2: getting three and a half to one. Let's say, on

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Speaker 2: Bobby Witch, would you play something like that with Vlad?

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Speaker 2: Because I might do this with my super deep name

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Speaker 2: here even though it's not needed. But or do you

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Speaker 2: feel that confident that fourteen to one Vlad is like

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Speaker 2: the play?

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Speaker 3: I think Vlad is my favorite play, but I have

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Speaker 3: no problem with Bobby Witt, I have no problem with

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Speaker 3: Judge or even jay Ram. Jay Ram's kind of in

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Speaker 3: that same range plus sixteen plus sixteen hundred plus eighteen

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Speaker 3: hundred I don't mind mixing and matching and taking one

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Speaker 3: of the other kind of favors there because I'm very

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Speaker 3: confident in Latti. But it's not a slam dunk by

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Speaker 3: any means. I just think the line is really valuable there,

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Speaker 3: fourteen to one.

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Speaker 2: So the one name I'm gonna just throw out to

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Speaker 2: you real quick if you want a deep, deep play

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Speaker 2: name at plus six thousand, Oh, Alex Bregman in the AL.

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Speaker 2: Alex Bregman at six thousand plus six thousand, sixty to

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Speaker 2: one on that Red Sox team on a Yankees team

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Speaker 2: that seems to be fumbling on the rotation, Red Sox

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Speaker 2: could take the division. He's in a new hitter friendly environment.

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Speaker 2: We've seen big home run years, could be big RBI totals.

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Speaker 2: If he's hitting two or three at the lineup, complete

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Speaker 2: five tools, Boston could unlock him and he could end

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Speaker 2: up being a catalyst where guy like Rafield Evers moves

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Speaker 2: to the DH not saying it's going to happen at all,

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Speaker 2: but if you're a long shot play, I really like

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Speaker 2: that sixty to one on Alex Bregman in the AL,

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Speaker 2: just as a little tinny sprinkle.

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Speaker 1: The great thing about the futures market too, is specifically

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Speaker 1: if you're betting on like FANDLE, which heavily heavily hedges itself,

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Speaker 1: is that they're going to give you a cash.

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Speaker 2: Out option if you're onto something.

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Speaker 1: I remember last year in the Heisman market, I had

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Speaker 1: a Travis Hunter ticket early sixty five to one, and

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Speaker 1: they tried to get me out of every single week.

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Speaker 1: Especially with some other futures like I know in the

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Speaker 1: NFL they'll do the same thing as well as motorsports,

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Speaker 1: so same thing. If you want someone like Bregman there,

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Speaker 1: Welsh might be worth a little bit of a flyer

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Speaker 1: and then you know it might come around by mid May,

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Speaker 1: maybe June or July that they're trying to get you

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Speaker 1: out of there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I And that's something to be on the

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Speaker 2: lookout for, especially if you play in a market and

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Speaker 2: they are having that early trajectory. I think it's a

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Speaker 2: really really good It's a good place to be and

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Speaker 2: watch for potential buyouts.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead, let's shift gears two Cy Young picks

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Speaker 1: in the al The favorites are reigning al Cy Young

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Speaker 1: winner to Wreak scooball of the Tigers plus three point fifty,

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Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox plus five fifty and

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Speaker 1: Cole Reagan's of the Royals at ten to one in

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Speaker 1: the AL or in the NL. Excuse me, your betting

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Speaker 1: favorites are Paul Skeins of the Pirates three to one,

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Speaker 1: Zach Wheeler of the Phillies eight to one, and Blake

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Speaker 1: Snell of the Dodgers at ten to one. Joe, let's

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Speaker 1: start with you. Are you finding any value at the

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Speaker 1: top of the board. Are you once again going off

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Speaker 1: the beaten path?

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Speaker 3: I'm going a little bit farther down, Like, there are

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Speaker 3: some lines on the on Scheens in Schooble that I

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Speaker 3: don't really love plus three hundred plus two fifty. There's

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Speaker 3: a Schiens line at plus two ten. I think it's

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Speaker 3: just a little bit rich. There's a lot of risk

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Speaker 3: with both of them, considering how fast they throw. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Schooble had a healthy year last year, but before last

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Speaker 3: season he was quite an injury plagued guy. So I

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Speaker 3: think there's a bit of a risk with those lines.

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Speaker 3: I think those lines are a little bit too short

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Speaker 3: for me personally.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so who is your long shot then or longer shot?

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Speaker 3: I should say, I've already gotten myself in all kinds

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Speaker 3: of trouble this preseason, so let's keep down this path

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Speaker 3: of Jacob de grow because I think considering the fact

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Speaker 3: that he has a new UCL, the fact that there's

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Speaker 3: not as much tread on his arm as there are

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Speaker 3: going to be on a lot of guys his age,

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Speaker 3: because he just hasn't pitched a lot the last few season.

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Speaker 3: That doesn't mean he has the arm of a thirty

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Speaker 3: two year old necessarily, but he doesn't have thousands and

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Speaker 3: thousands of innings built up because he's missed some time now.

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Speaker 3: That's because of the injury. Bet I would argue that

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Speaker 3: with the surgery freshly healing his UCL, there's a good

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Speaker 3: chance he's able to stay healthy. We've talked a lot

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Speaker 3: on the Baseball Pod over the years about the TJ honeymoon,

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Speaker 3: the Tommy John honeymoon. Once you come back from the surgery,

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Speaker 3: generally speaking, it doesn't work one hundred percent of the time,

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Speaker 3: but you do have a little bit of a window

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Speaker 3: where you are healthy.

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Speaker 4: Justin Verlander is the prime example of this.

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Speaker 3: In twenty nineteen, you had the Tommy John surgery, came

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Speaker 3: back a year later, had the best season of his

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Speaker 3: career actually might have been a year later than I said,

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Speaker 3: but he had the best season of his career coming

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Speaker 3: off of Tommy John at age thirty nine. I see

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Speaker 3: Jacob deGrom making smarter decisions with his arm, saying he's

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Speaker 3: not going to be throwing ninety nine in one hundred.

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Speaker 3: He's not going to be maxing out. He's going to

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Speaker 3: be keeping himself in the ninety five to ninety six range.

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Speaker 3: The Rangers are going to be smarter about their usage

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Speaker 3: with him, too, and I think five to six inning outings,

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Speaker 3: they're going to probably have him miss a few starts.

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Speaker 3: But even if he goes twenty five starts of five

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Speaker 3: to six innings in length, hopefully pushing close to the SI,

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Speaker 3: we can still get into one hundred and fifty inning range.

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Speaker 3: And I think in this day and age, that's enough,

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Speaker 3: especially with the production I'm expecting from de Grom, where

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Speaker 3: he could very easily win the Cy Young and the

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Speaker 3: numbers you are seeing on him are in the plus

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Speaker 3: twelve hundred plus fourteen hundred type of range. And I

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Speaker 3: think betting on the best picture in baseball makes sense

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Speaker 3: when you're getting that long of an odds plus twelve

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Speaker 3: hundred plus fourteen, either one of those. I'm pretty happy

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Speaker 3: to take a shot on Jacob de Gram at Okay.

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Speaker 1: Welsh, how do you feel about de Gram and who

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Speaker 1: is your pick for the cy Young market?

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Speaker 2: De Gram is definitely always going to be in the conversation.

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Speaker 2: If he got to one hundred and sixty innings, I

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Speaker 2: think he could win it, and I think he probably

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Speaker 2: does win it. I don't think the team thinks he's

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Speaker 2: going to get there. I don't think they're planning for it.

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Speaker 2: They're building around it, and the history hasn't told it,

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Speaker 2: so it's a calculated risk. There's a reason it's fourteen

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Speaker 2: to one here. He's got the stuff, but the innings

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Speaker 2: really do work against him. I do have a deep play,

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Speaker 2: and I've got my actual play, Okay, my actual play here.

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Speaker 2: And maybe I'm boring because I'm not playing, you know,

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Speaker 2: a lot of ten to ones. I'm back into four

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Speaker 2: and a half to one in the al and I'm

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Speaker 2: picking Garrett Crochet. I've got another Garrett Crochet that I'm

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Speaker 2: going to talk about here in a little bit. He's

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Speaker 2: obviously coming off of just a phenomenal spring was a

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Speaker 2: just a ridiculous pitcher on the worst team in baseball

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Speaker 2: last year, huge ks, walks and aren't too too much

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Speaker 2: of a problem. It is a hitter friendly environment in

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Speaker 2: I guess I'm very pro Boston right now because I

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Speaker 2: talked about Bregman, But it's a very hitter friendly environment,

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Speaker 2: which is something we're gonna have to watch for for Crochet.

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Speaker 2: This is this something new like it could have some

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Speaker 2: explosive blowout performances that could raise up the era plus

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Speaker 2: the division. But get back to it. Yankees are kind

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Speaker 2: of tailing a little bit down, a lot of left handers,

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Speaker 2: and that Orioles lineup raised. We'll have to see. Blue

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Speaker 2: Jays will have to see. But he's one of the

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Speaker 2: king of strikeouts. There's gonna be a ton of win opportunities.

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Speaker 2: He's the top of that rotation. And I really do

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Speaker 2: think Boston is going to press very, very hard this year.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to get more

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Speaker 2: aggressive in a trade market. Garrett Crochet is going to

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Speaker 2: be at the tippy top of that. So I'm avoiding

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Speaker 2: the NL On the cy Young is Verry Paul Skeenze. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: Chris Sale is floating around there. I just don't want

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Speaker 2: to touch it. I feel really good about Garrett Crochet,

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Speaker 2: but my deep play is also fourteen to one. It

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Speaker 2: is just the opposite of Jacob deGrom. It's a guy

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Speaker 2: that's going to get two hundred innings, Logan Gilbert. Logan

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Speaker 2: Gilbert is the Panacle of innings. He is going to

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Speaker 2: push one hundred and eighty to two hundred to one

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Speaker 2: of the best rotations in baseball. Stuff ticking up more

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Speaker 2: strikeouts with the splitter, if they can learn to get

385
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Speaker 2: some run scoring. We talked about this on the Fantasy

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Speaker 2: Pros MLB Fantasy Fest. If you guys ever checked this out,

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Speaker 2: I think it was on the MLB YouTube channel. We

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Speaker 2: talked about our best bets for the season with Derek

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Speaker 2: Carty from the bat x on and his favorite preseason

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Speaker 2: bet was Logan Gilbert to lead the league in wins

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Speaker 2: and that was I believe thirty five to one. Yes,

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Speaker 2: it was thirty five to one for Logan Gilbert to

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Speaker 2: lead the league and wins. So you take kind of

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Speaker 2: that on the projection side, a guy with those innings,

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Speaker 2: if they can pick up a few more wins this

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Speaker 2: season with a phenomenal closer and Andres Munos projections are

397
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Speaker 2: very favorable. Logan Gilbert is a top five Fantasy starting pitcher,

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Speaker 2: but also in the wins department, he's right there. I

399
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Speaker 2: don't think it's out of pocket to think that Logan

400
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Speaker 2: Gilbert on that Mariners team could be in the running.

401
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Speaker 2: So at fourteen to one, I think he is the

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Speaker 2: best value. But my play is Garrett Crochet.

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Speaker 1: Love it before we keep it moving. I did want

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Speaker 1: to remind everyone about the Betting Pros betting Systems tool

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00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:41,359
Speaker 1: that is designed to help you find winning strategies and

406
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:45,199
Speaker 1: make smarter bets. You can customize your betting systems by sport,

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00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 1: bet type, and timeframe to find the best opportunities using

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00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 1: real time data and expert analysis, track the performance of

409
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:57,480
Speaker 1: different betting systems over time, and optimize your betting card

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00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:01,160
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00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:04,000
Speaker 1: app today or go to Bettingpros dot com slash systems

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00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:07,880
Speaker 1: to elevate your betting strategy and start making smarter bets today.

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Speaker 1: Let's head to either the season wins total or to

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Speaker 1: make a playoff market. This is one of the trickier

415
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Speaker 1: markets because often you're laying some juice, you're drinking that

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Speaker 1: at rather short odds. Well, what do you have in

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Speaker 1: store for the fine people of the internet in this market?

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Speaker 2: All right? So this is actually one of my favorites.

419
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Speaker 2: If I'm playing this, win totals is not necessarily my thing.

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Speaker 2: I think that might end up being big volume betting

421
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,240
Speaker 2: pending how you are? Is it better again when you

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00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 2: talk about the season totals that are minus money, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's not quite my market because whatever your normal unit

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Speaker 2: play is, you probably want to play it up. But

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Speaker 2: I'm also not chasing, as you can clearly tell my

426
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Speaker 2: MVPN is signing. I'm not chasing tons of value. But

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Speaker 2: I came into this preseason being around this camp about

428
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Speaker 2: in Arizona, so I'm around half the MLB teams, But

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Speaker 2: I came in looking at this offense, look at the

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Speaker 2: pitching staff, looking at the new managerial changes, and hyper

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Speaker 2: focusing that I think this team is a team that

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Speaker 2: can make the playoffs. And you're getting three to one

433
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:12,879
Speaker 2: on to make the playoff market, now, that's not absurd,

434
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 2: but you'll see plenty of divisions that are like plus

435
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 2: one ten for the top plus one seventy. You don't

436
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,080
Speaker 2: really get in there. And the team I'm picking are

437
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Reds. The Cincinnati Reds to make the playoff.

438
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 2: Looking over in DK is three to one right now.

439
00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:26,960
Speaker 4: And I really like that.

440
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 2: Terry Francona coming over is a complete change to a

441
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,959
Speaker 2: winning culture. Now, let's look at the offense. Ellie Day

442
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:39,200
Speaker 2: La Cruz MVP potential candidate. Two big studs returning from injuries,

443
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,600
Speaker 2: Matt McClain, Christian and Carnassi and Strand. They've got a

444
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 2: pretty well built outfield. Their infield is looking strong. They

445
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 2: gotten a welvy out They're not playing around. They're just

446
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,200
Speaker 2: not going to play around this year. It's like Jamer

447
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 2: that Spencer Steeer is starting a little bit late, but

448
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 2: he's going to pop back in. And then look at

449
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,439
Speaker 2: the rotation. That's the big thing here. Hunter Green has

450
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 2: completely transformed as a pitcher, looking like a true ace.

451
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,359
Speaker 2: He's throwing a splitter and he's throwing it more and

452
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 2: he's commanding it. That goes with that big power fastball

453
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 2: and slider. He's becoming a completely altered pitcher than who

454
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,679
Speaker 2: he used to be. Nicolodolo looks like he's healthy and

455
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 2: he's gonna get back out there. They also went they

456
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,640
Speaker 2: got Taylor Rodgers to kind of bolster that bullpen. Alexis

457
00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,199
Speaker 2: Diez is on the IL, but they're gonna put it

458
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 2: looks like Graham Ashcraft in there. They've got a pretty

459
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 2: decent bullpen. They've got a pretty strong rotation. They've got

460
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 2: a very strong offense and an offensive environment that I

461
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,239
Speaker 2: think if they can go make a move or too.

462
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 2: And by the way, they get Reh Lauder coming back

463
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 2: in a little bit if they can, and Brady Singer

464
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 2: they traded for from the Royals ground ball pitcher. If

465
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,959
Speaker 2: they can go or theoretical hopeful, if they can go

466
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 2: and maybe make one move or two, this team could

467
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,400
Speaker 2: be as little as one move or two away from

468
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,959
Speaker 2: being a strong playoff team. Now that division, you know

469
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:54,480
Speaker 2: that there could be one powerhouse that kind of comes

470
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 2: out of it. But I think the Reds have as

471
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 2: much of a of an opportunity. I kind of see

472
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,359
Speaker 2: them as the NL Royals in this situation, as a

473
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 2: team that can really sneak in. I think they've got

474
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 2: a strong core that they can hopefully build from a

475
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 2: huge minor league system to trade from end season, and

476
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 2: I think they're not playing around. I think Francona is

477
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 2: ready for them to be a playoff team this year.

478
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 2: So at three to one, I really like the Reds

479
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 2: to make the playoffs.

480
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 1: Man, that would be exciting because the people of Cincinnati,

481
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 1: they've been begging for this for so long. I think

482
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 1: it was just a couple of years ago the owner

483
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 1: of the Reds came out and said, like, look, if

484
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 1: you don't like our team, you don't like how I'm

485
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:30,679
Speaker 1: running it, like too bad, go watch something else. And

486
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 1: so maybe maybe they'll finally put together here. Joe, your

487
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 1: thoughts on the Reds. Could they make a run here

488
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: into the postseason? And what is your pick for a

489
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 1: team to make the playoffs as well?

490
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 2: Please?

491
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Reds are in a very winnable division. I

492
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 3: think it's probably the Cubs for me. If I had

493
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 3: to choose a straight up division winner, sure, But if

494
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 3: we're just talking about making the playoffs, I think there's

495
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 3: a good chance the Reds can sneak into the wildcard.

496
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 3: Welsh laid it out very well. I was kind of

497
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 3: surprise to see Marte not make the team. I figured

498
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 3: they were going to give another chance, but again, like

499
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 3: they're not going to be messing around and giving somebody

500
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 3: playing time that doesn't deserve it. So I think the

501
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 3: lineup is very strong, although i'd prefer somebody else rather

502
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 3: than Austin Hayes cleaning up. I think maybe Ces gets

503
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 3: there at some point during the season, but I think

504
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 3: it's a pretty solid lineup. I think Green and Singer

505
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 3: and potentially Lodolo is a really good one two three.

506
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 3: Nick Martinez is very underrated. I think I would agree

507
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 3: that they're a mover two away still, but I think

508
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 3: at three to one, this is a solid bet to make.

509
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 3: And I've also kind of targeted a weaker division looking

510
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: at the American League side of it, and also looking

511
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 3: at the Central. I've taken the Minnesota Twins to make

512
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Now, the line you can get it at

513
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,440
Speaker 3: one twenty looks like the best line right now. Fangrafts

514
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 3: has them projected as the best team in the division,

515
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 3: although it is relatively close. I think there's a couple

516
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 3: different ways that it could go in the Central, but okay,

517
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 3: I think when you're talking about the Tigers, there's still

518
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 3: some risk there.

519
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 4: The Royals.

520
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 3: I think the Royals are probably the biggest competition for

521
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 3: the Twins, but you're looking at a fantastic rotation. The

522
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 3: Twins have Lopez, Joe, Ryan, Bailey Over, David Festa is

523
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 3: going to be there eventually. Sam me to with Richardson

524
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 3: has actually had a decent spring, believe it or not.

525
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 3: So I think the pitching is solid. The bullpen we

526
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 3: know Duran and Jacks is a phenomenal back end, and

527
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: I think the lineup is very good as well. I

528
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 3: think there's a lot of question marks surrounding health, mostly

529
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 3: can Korea Buxton and I mean Royce Lewis is already

530
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 3: on the shelf. Can these guys stay healthy or at

531
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 3: least somewhat healthy. I think that'll be the big question.

532
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 3: But I think they are probably the best bet of

533
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 3: any team in the American League Central to make the playoffs.

534
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 1: Well, should you be drinking that juice even money for

535
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 1: the Twins to make the playoffs, because I know you

536
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 1: also like the Royals. It seems like too.

537
00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's a little counter to where I'm at,

538
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 2: but strong rotation. They need bouncebacks. I think you know,

539
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 2: Joe Ryan's Vilo's something to watch, Pablo Lopez's consistency. If

540
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 2: Bailey over is back where he is, one thing it's

541
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:53,959
Speaker 2: hard to argue is that they don't have like a

542
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 2: really strong top end of the rotation and a pretty

543
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 2: dang strung bullpen as well, and those are two big

544
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 2: key cogs as well. Offensively, I think they've got a

545
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 2: like they've got a pretty strong overall, Like if Buxton

546
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 2: is missing time or Korea's time, they've got replacements. So

547
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 2: I think there's a few guys that have to step up.

548
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 2: But the same thing is kind of in play for

549
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 2: my Reds. It's just the Reds are three to one

550
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 2: Twins or even money, but it's like if you know,

551
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 2: Miranda has to step up, but in the lineup, they

552
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 2: need Matt Walner to step up a little bit. So

553
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 2: I think it's in play. I don't think it's a

554
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 2: bad bet at all. I'm more on the Royal side

555
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 2: of this, so I would lean on the Royals, but

556
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 2: I definitely get it because this is a very very

557
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,120
Speaker 2: strong team, and if you're gonna pick a team, you're

558
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 2: gonna want to pick a team that's really really strong

559
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,239
Speaker 2: on the top end, especially the top three of their

560
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 2: rotation with a bullpen, and the Twins do meet that.

561
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: Okay, excellent, Before we move forward, I would like to

562
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 1: remind everyone that Fantasy Pros is now live on Twitch

563
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 1: starting opening day. Join Joey p and Chris Welsh every

564
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 1: weekday at twelve pm Eastern Time for Leading Off. Your

565
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 1: daily dose of all things baseball, news, notes, bets, and

566
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 1: fantasy advice all in one place. Questions, get insight and

567
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 1: interact live false now on Twitch at twitch dot tv

568
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros and never miss a stream. A bigger

569
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:14,080
Speaker 1: line of exclusive, interactive live content is on the way. Well,

570
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 1: should I know you guys always have fun over there

571
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 1: on leading Off? Man, what do you call peanuts and

572
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 1: cracker Jacks? That's your your live prover there. It seems

573
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 1: like you guys always having a blast interacting with them.

574
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 2: Well, they're moving over to Twitch. We're still on YouTube.

575
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 2: We'll still be on the Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube daily

576
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 2: editions of that. We're actually doing a Wednesday live stream

577
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: still on YouTube, so you can catch all the great

578
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 2: stuff with the penuts of cracker Jacks moving over to

579
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 2: Twitch and we have a little too much fun something.

580
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: That's all right, man, Let's go ahead, let's keep having

581
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 1: fun here on this show. Let's move to the to

582
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 1: win the division odds where there are on some insanely

583
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 1: short odds, including the Los Angeles Dodgers all the way

584
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 1: down at minus five hundred to win the NL West,

585
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: Chicago Cubs plus one twenty five to win the NL Central,

586
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: Atlanta b plus one thirty five to win the NL East,

587
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: and the New York Yankees still plus one sixty to

588
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,679
Speaker 1: win the AL East. Joe, what's moving the needle for

589
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 1: you in this market?

590
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 3: My favorite bet to make, And granted it took a

591
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 3: little bit of a hit over the weekend with the

592
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 3: Shane McClanahan news, but I really like the Tampa Bay

593
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 3: Rays to win the American League East. Even with the

594
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,880
Speaker 3: injury to McClanahan. We got about the best case scenario

595
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 3: that he's not going to be going back under the knife.

596
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 3: It looks like they're just gonna rest him for an

597
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 3: undetermined period at this point, but he will return this year.

598
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 4: That is the main portion of it.

599
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 3: And I don't think we're going to be looking at

600
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 3: like a four month absence or something. I think we're

601
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 3: probably looking at somewhere in the month and a half

602
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 3: the two month range, and they'll get their ace back.

603
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 3: But this is a very deep team. This is a

604
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 3: team that was projected to start with the six man

605
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 3: rotation to begin with, so they can kind of get

606
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 3: by for a little bit with Pepio Bradley, Drew Rasmus

607
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 3: and Shane Baz and Zach Lttel. Now when I look

608
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 3: at the lineup, that's where I kind of get excited here.

609
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 3: I am a big fan of Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe.

610
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 3: I always mix up my Low's and Lao might mix.

611
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 4: Those up at some point.

612
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 3: Junior camon Naro is also looking fantastic. I love Danny

613
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 3: Jansen's potential in this ballpark. He was able to stay

614
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 3: healthy and Andy Diaz as well. Like there's a lot

615
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 3: of really really solid bats. The pen is a little

616
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 3: bit interesting. Pete Fairbanks always finds a way to get

617
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 3: hurt somehow. But then the Rays just seemed to be

618
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 3: able to come up with three or four relievers every

619
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 3: year that we've never heard of that are going to

620
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 3: have a sub too.

621
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 4: Pra at some point. It always seems to work out

622
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 4: that way, and.

623
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 2: That'll be Joe Boyle. His name is Joe Boyle this year, by.

624
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 3: The way, Yeah, I think Boyle can do that. And

625
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 3: I think there's also who's the other guy. Mason Montgomery,

626
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 3: I think is another one that could be a really

627
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 3: nice arm there that people aren't really necessarily expecting. But

628
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 3: when you look at the projected standings on fangrafts, every

629
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 3: team in the American League East is projected between eighty

630
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 3: one and eighty five wins. So it's very very tight

631
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 3: right now. The Rays have a currently a thirty seven

632
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 3: point six percent chance to make the playoffs according to fangrafs.

633
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 3: Oh wow, I think that that line is really just

634
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 3: too good to pass up. Plus eight hundred. Shop around.

635
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 3: You might be able to get it an even slightly

636
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 3: better line after the mc lanahan news. But I've really

637
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 3: been in on the Rays this offseason.

638
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 1: Welsh thoughts on the Rays and who are you going

639
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 1: with to win the division?

640
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:08,880
Speaker 4: Again?

641
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 2: This is similar to the Twins. I get the logic

642
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 2: of it. The Rays are the six sneaky, weird constructed team.

643
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 2: Some of it's not sexy, but I think the parts

644
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 2: as a whole makes sense. But I also think Boston

645
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 2: is going to be like pretty dominant on this team.

646
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 2: So but to win the division Boston is not I

647
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 2: think a great play. I think Boston is My look

648
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 2: here in Baltimore. I mean they're super super sneaky here. Yeah,

649
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 2: my play though, I'm going to go back to what

650
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 2: we've already talked about it. I'll be quick about it.

651
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 2: Is the Royals and you're getting the orlds at almost

652
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 2: three to one to win their division. I think the

653
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: odds are really great. It's kind of spread out a

654
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 2: bit with some plus money odds. But going back to

655
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 2: the rotation talk, Cole Reagan set logo, Michael Waka, I

656
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,479
Speaker 2: love that three punch, very very good bullpen with Carlos

657
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 2: Estevez and Lucas Erseg on the back end, those are

658
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 2: things you're really to be hyper focused on. Jonathan India

659
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 2: really kind of pieces that offense together at the top. Again,

660
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 2: we're gonna watch for pas Quentino. But I think it's

661
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: a win a bold division. I think if I'm betting

662
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 2: Bobby Witt to win MVP, it's going to be due

663
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: to his carrying and Cole Reagan's maybe even taking another

664
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 2: step up. So at almost three to one at plus

665
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 2: two seventy for the Royals to win the division, that's

666
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 2: the type of bet I'm looking for here.

667
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: Love it, love it, Let's go ahead, Let's talk World

668
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 1: Series Gentlemen thirty teams or at least twenty nine excluding

669
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: the Pirates. They're setting out with hopes to hoist the

670
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: Commissioner's Trophy this season, but only one of these organizations

671
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 1: can call themselves the World Series champion. The favorites are

672
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 1: as follows, coming from DraftKings, the Dodgers plus two to ninety,

673
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: the Braves plus seven to fifty, and the Yankees plus

674
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: eight fifty. Welsh, where are you going with your play?

675
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: To go all the way?

676
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 2: There's a lot of good plays in here. I mean,

677
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 2: even to get the Dodgers at almost three to one,

678
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 2: that's not bad no matter. I think, no matter what

679
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 2: bet you make, you should probably throw something like a

680
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: unit on that Dodge ahead getting Yeah, well you're getting

681
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 2: three to one, very likely to be the The NL

682
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 2: is strong though. I mean I wouldn't hold anything back

683
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 2: against Atlanta and Philadelphia. I think both of those are

684
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 2: good strong bets. But like anything I would do, I

685
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 2: would probably take a close to three to one Dodgers.

686
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 2: But I'm going to go over to the al kind

687
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 2: of sticking with a theme here, I am getting value.

688
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 2: This isn't a usual big play of like World series winner.

689
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 2: At this point, you're probably looking for someone that can

690
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 2: carry throughout the season. Maybe you can buy out of it,

691
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: or if things really push your way. At twenty to one,

692
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 2: the Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox A plus twenty

693
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 2: twenty to one, I'm going to make that play. I

694
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 2: think Walker Buehler is a big extra punch for them.

695
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 2: I've already talked to you about Garrett Crochet. I actually

696
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 2: like the back end of their bullpen. A roll this

697
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 2: in Liam Hendrix, if we can stay healthy, is not

698
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 2: a bad punch there. Offensively, I think they are crazy strong,

699
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 2: and they still have the pieces that they were potentially

700
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 2: talking about trading during the offseason. Will you or Bray

701
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 2: It was someone that some thought would go into Garrett

702
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: Crochet trade. They've got Marcelo Mayor, they have got Roman Anthony.

703
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 2: Christian Campbell made the roster. I think they have chips

704
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 2: if they wanted to go after a Sandale Contra or anybody.

705
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 2: If a team falters and they want to make some moves,

706
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: I think that division, the Ale East is for the

707
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 2: taking right now, and I think the Boston Red Sox

708
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 2: have positioned themselves to really be able to take it

709
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: and if they keep going, it could be World Series bounds.

710
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 2: So twenty to one, I'm gonna take the Red Sox.

711
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: We need to get you a Red Sox jersey.

712
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 2: There's way too many Red Sox fantasy analysts out there.

713
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 2: We don't need another one. From Ponce to Eric Kratt,

714
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: we got plenty of them. But I do like this team. Yeah,

715
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 2: I got Mayor. We got too many Red Sox guys already,

716
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 2: but I'm very pro Red Sox. I like the Rangers

717
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 2: this year and a lot of their fantasy assets. From

718
00:31:58,080 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: a betting market, I think there's just a lot of

719
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 2: value on that Boston team right now.

720
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 1: I see you got a bunch of signed balls behind you.

721
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 1: Got any like Kurt Shilling, any big poppy back there?

722
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: Any former Red Sox.

723
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 2: Oh, former Red Sox We've got, Well, we got a

724
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 2: Chris Sale former Red Sox. Here, we have a jar.

725
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 2: I have a Jared Duran, but I can't show it

726
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 2: to you because it is inscribed with something that he

727
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 2: ran with last year. If you guys know what I'm

728
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 2: talking about, so I can't. It wouldn't be good for not.

729
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 4: That, not that.

730
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 2: No, it's it's a ball that we're not going to

731
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 2: show on but yes I do have Jared Duran, I

732
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 2: got a couple of Red Sox in here.

733
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, Joe, your thoughts on the Red Sox,

734
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 1: and you also have a couple plays, including one in

735
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 1: the Dodgers.

736
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 4: The first Well, so I was like, did he ride

737
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 4: a slur on the ball or something?

738
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no, it's it's it's it's a branding.

739
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 2: It was more of a branding thing for him. You're

740
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 2: making me nervous.

741
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 4: Here, Joe, oh Man, I like the Red Sox.

742
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 3: I just think the lineup is maybe a little but

743
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 3: if he in the bottom half, and I think I

744
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 3: wouldn't really think that so much if it wasn't for

745
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 3: the Rafael Devers shoulder stuff. That kind of worries me.

746
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 3: But I think at twenty I've actually seen it at

747
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: twenty five to one, Like, I think it's a fair

748
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 3: bet to make. Like I mentioned earlier, the American League

749
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 3: East is very tight. I think it's actually probably the

750
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 3: weakest that's been in several years, and it's very winnable

751
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 3: division overall. We've seen a lot of injuries in the preseason.

752
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 3: The Yankees aren't what they were. Yeah, the Orioles are

753
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 3: not a serious team. They're just not They've proven that

754
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 3: this offseason that they are not going to make moves.

755
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 3: Kyle Gibson was there signing recently. Like they're just not serious.

756
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 3: So I think the Red Sox are a good bet

757
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 3: to make there at in the twenty to twenty five

758
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 3: to one range. The one that I am going with here,

759
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 3: while I have two of them, I'll just mention the

760
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 3: Dodgers because I think that that's a great line. I'm

761
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 3: seeing it plus three ten looks like the best mark

762
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 3: I can find.

763
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 1: That's crazy that that is a good line for a

764
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 1: world I know, champion, that's insane.

765
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 4: No, but just considering how great they are, how deep

766
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 4: they are, they.

767
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 1: Just are are they the best team you guys have

768
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: ever seen on paper? Ahead of a season?

769
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 2: You think, I think some of those old like Yankee

770
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 2: teams and like you know, I'm thinking about like you know,

771
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 2: you put like Tashera and Alex Rudgery, like those were

772
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 2: like moster and if you look at the Dodgers, the

773
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 2: back half of not to like pick on them, but

774
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 2: like the back half of the Dodgers, like even line

775
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,280
Speaker 2: up where it's like Andy Peihas and like maximumt You're like, Okay,

776
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,439
Speaker 2: the rotation is going to be sick, and the top

777
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:24,760
Speaker 2: end is absolutely sick, and they got a great bullpen.

778
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:26,839
Speaker 2: But I the first thing that came to mind when

779
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 2: you said that was I thought about that, like Yankee, Yeah.

780
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 3: Alex Ro looking at that lineup from their lineup in

781
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:37,280
Speaker 3: O seven was Pasada, Canoe, Jeter, a Rod, Matt Suey,

782
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 3: Bobby A. Bray, You, Jason Giambi, Melki Cabrera, Johnny David.

783
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 4: Johnny Damon.

784
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 1: There's an old Red Sox too.

785
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:46,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, there you go, World Series with the Red Sox

786
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 4: and the Yankees.

787
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 3: I believe I might be wrong on that, But my

788
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 3: kind of more long shot bet is the Rangers. And

789
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:55,760
Speaker 3: I've already mentioned earlier how much I love Jacob deGrom.

790
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 3: This one is at twenty five to one, twenty two

791
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 3: to twenty five is kind of the and you're seeing it.

792
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 3: But that lineup, I think is just honestly, I think

793
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 3: they have the best lineup in the American League if

794
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 3: everybody stays healthy from top to bottom. Simeon Seeger Langford, Petersen, Garcia, Young,

795
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 3: Carter Berger, him, like, that's a great lineup. I think

796
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 3: that a lot of it will depend on what we

797
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:18,839
Speaker 3: see at a Kuma Rocker and Jack Lighter this year.

798
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 3: If they are able to take those next steps, feel

799
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,240
Speaker 3: a little bit more confident that Rocker will as opposed

800
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:25,719
Speaker 3: to Lighter, but if even one of them is able

801
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 3: to take that next step forward, and then you've got

802
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 3: Nathan Yavaldi, who is steady eddy there every single year,

803
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 3: maybe this mid season edition, I think if there is

804
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 3: an addition, it should probably come in the bullpen. They

805
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 3: have Chris Martin, who's about to be thirty nine years

806
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 3: old as their closer, and while he was good last year,

807
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 3: at age thirty nine, you just never really know, so

808
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 3: there is a little bit of risk, but I think

809
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 3: the line is very well set for value at plus

810
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 3: twenty two plus twenty five to one.

811
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 1: Okay, let's go ahead and round out the program with

812
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: the guy's favorite futures long shot and Joe, let's start

813
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: with you as you have a couple moonshots to take

814
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 1: home MVP on this season.

815
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 3: I do, and I'm just kind of looking at the

816
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 3: way that things have gone over the last couple of

817
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 3: years with great players really kind of breaking out in

818
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 3: year two after We've seen a small tastes in year

819
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,280
Speaker 3: one and then the second year they just explode. Bobby

820
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 3: Witt did it, Corbyn Carroll did it, Julio Rodriguez did it.

821
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:17,879
Speaker 3: We've had a good few examples over the last couple

822
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 3: of years of guys who show their promise and then

823
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,640
Speaker 3: they just explode in year two. And I think we

824
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 3: can kind of expect that with both of these guys.

825
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 3: And that's why at Langford and Jackson Cheerio, you can

826
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 3: get them each at forty to one to win the

827
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 3: American League and National League MVPs, respectively, and I think

828
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,919
Speaker 3: at that price you take the chance Langford has become

829
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,760
Speaker 3: a second round fantasy pick. Churio is a first rounder

830
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 3: in some rooms, and that's not necessarily tied together. But

831
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 3: when you're looking at the projected value of Churio, we'll

832
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 3: start with him. He could be a thirty five to

833
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 3: thirty five guy who it's one hundred bats three hundred,

834
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 3: who has one hundred runs, hundred RBI like.

835
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 4: He could be.

836
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 3: Next year, we could be talking about Jackson Cherio as

837
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 3: the one zero one pick in fantasy, and I don't

838
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 3: think that'll be surprising. And Langford is also kind of

839
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:59,120
Speaker 3: in the same boat massive power with good speed. I've

840
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:00,840
Speaker 3: alread talked about how much I like the lineup. I

841
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 3: think one hundred runs and ribbies is very much on

842
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 3: the table there, and if they are able to make

843
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 3: those progressions like the Wits and Carrol's and Julios of

844
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 3: the last couple of years, I think it's very very

845
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 3: easy to see them on the MVP ballot.

846
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,839
Speaker 1: Okay, Welsh, where are you going with your long shot?

847
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 4: Pick?

848
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 2: All right, I got two. I'm actually gonna throw two

849
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 2: at you. Okay, Little versions again of the Fantasy Fest.

850
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 2: I talked about some of these, but this is a

851
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 2: new little wrinkle. One of them was talking about Michael

852
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 2: Tolia's homers, and you know you can get like like

853
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 2: minus one ten for twenty three and a half over.

854
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 2: I really like Michael Tolia this year hitting in Colorado,

855
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 2: he had twenty five homers last year. Projections do have

856
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 2: them around twenty four and twenty five. But the goofy

857
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,760
Speaker 2: thing is is like you see projected uptick in batting average.

858
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 2: He had an XBA last year of two forty four

859
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 2: and he hit to eighteen. But you see the projections

860
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 2: uptick the average a little bit, but you don't really

861
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 2: see the home run total go up. You had four

862
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 2: three hundred and ninety ninety bats last year for twenty

863
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 2: five homers. Full season expected batting average comes up homers.

864
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:01,240
Speaker 2: You can get thirty homers DK right now at almost

865
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 2: two to one plus one ninety five for thirty home runs.

866
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:05,359
Speaker 2: I think he could be a thirty five home run hitter,

867
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 2: So that's kind of a smaller bet. My favorite bet

868
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 2: of the season I put this in a month or

869
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 2: so ago, is Garrett Crochet to lead the league in strikeouts.

870
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 2: You can get this at ten to one. Why I

871
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 2: love this you look at any of the projection systems

872
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 2: out there. Specifically when I looked at was the bat,

873
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 2: Derek Carty's the bat, and you see Garrett Crochet around

874
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 2: fifth or six in projected strikeouts in the league. As

875
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: a matter of fact, sixteen strikeouts, I believe is the

876
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,280
Speaker 2: number I could be off by one or two less

877
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:41,280
Speaker 2: than the number one pitcher, who's Dylan Cees, but thirty

878
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 2: to forty more innings pitch by every single pitcher above him,

879
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 2: he is like the highest K per nine pitcher projected

880
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 2: across the board. But guess what, here's the other thing,

881
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 2: he's only projected for like four more innings than he

882
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 2: pitched last season, And now you're talking about pitching on

883
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 2: a contender the White Sox last year. Pitch him like

884
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 2: these weird three innings blah blah blah. Later projection are

885
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 2: not really necessarily built around innings pitched, and that's a

886
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 2: lot of people can talk about that. I believe we

887
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,359
Speaker 2: are going to push past those. The Red Sox will

888
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 2: need to get past those. And if you put twenty

889
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 2: more innings on Garrett Croche, put ten more innings on

890
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,760
Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet, he should be near the top. You put twenty,

891
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 2: he should blast past everybody. If you can get to

892
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 2: about a one seventy marker, Garrett Croche, based on tho

893
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 2: strikeout numbers, should and can lead the league. Projections tell

894
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 2: you so. The thing literally the only thing holding back

895
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 2: is projected innings from most people Division Ballpark. Those are

896
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 2: some big questions, But at ten to one for one

897
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 2: of the highest K per nine pitchers in baseball, one

898
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 2: of the highest K percentage guys on this team, I

899
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 2: like Garrett Croche to lead the league in strikeouts at

900
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:48,399
Speaker 2: ten to one, and maybe you can even get a better.

901
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 4: That's a great bet. That's a great bet. Like it

902
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 4: really is.

903
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:54,439
Speaker 3: Like the innings pitch projections are and the people who

904
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 3: make the projections will tell you this themselves. The innings

905
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 3: are not really well thought out. A lot of the systems,

906
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 3: a lot of the systems will or innings from each other.

907
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 3: I think the bat uses ATC's projected playing time. So

908
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 3: if you think you have an edge in terms of

909
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 3: projecting playing time, that's probably the biggest edge in the

910
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 3: market in my opinion.

911
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, heck yeah, Well, guys, we're gonna get out of here.

912
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: I gotta go plas a couple of these bets now

913
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,879
Speaker 1: after you guys said them before these lines move. That's

914
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 1: going to do it for us today on the Betting

915
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 1: Pros podcast, Thank you so much for watching. As always,

916
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:25,879
Speaker 1: the best freeway to support us is give this video

917
00:40:25,960 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 1: a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content.

918
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 1: Also subscribe to the channel if you're new. Also make

919
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:33,280
Speaker 1: sure you go download the Betting Pros app and sink

920
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 1: your sportsbooks today for Chris Boston, Welsh and Joe Orco.

921
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 1: I am Seth Wilcock. Take care of y'all. Thanks for

922
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 1: listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you love the show,

923
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,520
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924
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925
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926
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:56,080
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927
00:40:56,120 --> 00:41:06,680
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