WEBVTT - Professional Development : The Nasdaq Bull Run, & Is Your 401k Safe?

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<v Speaker 1>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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<v Speaker 1>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

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<v Speaker 1>accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with

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<v Speaker 1>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

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<v Speaker 1>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

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<v Speaker 1>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States

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<v Speaker 1>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

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<v Speaker 1>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

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<v Speaker 1>are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly

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<v Speaker 1>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will

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<v Speaker 1>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

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<v Speaker 1>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

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<v Speaker 1>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,

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<v Speaker 1>border and families will be protected.

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<v Speaker 2>Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's talk about the market and where the money is

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<v Speaker 3>moving this year. Last year we saw the Nastak take

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<v Speaker 3>a hit thirty three down thirty three percent for the year.

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<v Speaker 3>A lot of the companies we talk about in Love

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<v Speaker 3>come from the nastag obviously is full of tech companies.

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<v Speaker 3>So let's talk about where the money is moving. We've

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<v Speaker 3>seen companies like in Vidio have a great start to

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty three. We've seen Microsoft have a pretty good start. Apple,

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<v Speaker 3>same thing. Where's the money going this year?

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<v Speaker 2>Right now?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, it's so strange. There's this barbell thing going on.

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<v Speaker 4>It's a little offense defense going on right now. First

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<v Speaker 4>of all, a half a trillion dollars in the money

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<v Speaker 4>market funds in just the past several months. I think

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred billion of that, guys, was last week in

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<v Speaker 4>the middle of the bank freak out. Guess what people

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<v Speaker 4>were doing. I'm taking money out. I'm putting it in

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<v Speaker 4>money market funds. I'm taking money out of the stock

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<v Speaker 4>market if I still had it there, I'm going money

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<v Speaker 4>market funds. Four percent on the money market fund is beautiful.

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<v Speaker 4>Boring is beautiful right now. So that's where a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of defensive money is gone. CDs, money market funds, government bonds.

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<v Speaker 4>You see the yields on bonds moving around a lot.

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<v Speaker 4>That's a lot of people running for safety. Gold actual

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<v Speaker 4>gold gold, gold, gold box that's up like six seven

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<v Speaker 4>or eight percent so far this year. That's a typical

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<v Speaker 4>flight to safety trade that a lot of people do.

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<v Speaker 4>They're freaked out about the stock market, they go to gold,

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<v Speaker 4>they go to bonds, they go to cash. But also

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<v Speaker 4>we mentioned bitcoin. Now, I don't believe that's a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of retail investors, although I buy it every few weeks,

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<v Speaker 4>just a little bit fifty bucks, fifty bucks. We're not

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<v Speaker 4>moving the market on bitcoin. That's big whale money moving

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<v Speaker 4>the money on bitcoin. But where's why is the Nasdaq

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred right? This is the one hundred biggest stocks

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<v Speaker 4>in the Nasdaq. The ticker for that for the UTFS

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<v Speaker 4>is QQQ. Why is that up so much this year?

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's up something like fifteen to sixteen percent, right,

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<v Speaker 4>qqq's up sixteen percent quarter. That is driven by the

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<v Speaker 4>biggest stocks with the biggest market caps on the Nasdaq.

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<v Speaker 2>And what are those?

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<v Speaker 4>Apple and Microsoft the two most widely held stocks on

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<v Speaker 4>the planet, right, and those have become the safety trade

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<v Speaker 4>for a lot of investors, don't you think, Ian A

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<v Speaker 4>lot of people are like, I'm freaking out everything. Let

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<v Speaker 4>me go with these two guys that I know really well,

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<v Speaker 4>because they're really big really well a ton of cash?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I agree thousand percent. Have you heard about Bloggis

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<v Speaker 5>insight on bigcoint and going to a million bucks? What

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<v Speaker 5>do you think about that? And also, if I wanted

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<v Speaker 5>to research creditor false swaps, where could I actually track

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<v Speaker 5>that stat to see if the it's going up or

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<v Speaker 5>going down on the site?

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<v Speaker 2>Right? Great question.

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<v Speaker 4>So there are some research shops and newsletters that track

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<v Speaker 4>credit default swops every single day. But you can check

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<v Speaker 4>on some banks that offer credit default swaps. You can

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<v Speaker 4>look at the pricing and you could put in the

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<v Speaker 4>ticker just like you would for a stock, and you

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<v Speaker 4>can look at the price for what it would cost

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<v Speaker 4>to buy a credit default swop. Individual investors can buy,

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<v Speaker 4>and you need to be a little bit more accredited.

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<v Speaker 4>You need to have a lot of money to actually

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<v Speaker 4>do something, and you actually need to have a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of money to make a lot of money. So this

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<v Speaker 4>is not for retail investors to play with. I would

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<v Speaker 4>say I would recommend, but you can track, just buy

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<v Speaker 4>ticker what the credit default swap price is right now

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<v Speaker 4>now and when it expires, because like insurance contracts, these

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<v Speaker 4>have a term to them, so like an option too, Right,

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<v Speaker 4>it's a derivative, it's an option. There's a term to

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<v Speaker 4>that insurance deal. So you've got to look at the pricing,

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<v Speaker 4>and you got to look at the data of expiration,

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<v Speaker 4>and you could see where the vulnerability is.

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<v Speaker 2>Just Deutsche Bank. I mentioned that last week.

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<v Speaker 4>It's like the fourteenth biggest or no. Twenty first big

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<v Speaker 4>bank in the world. It's a huge bank. It's got

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<v Speaker 4>a million and trillion and a half dollars and it

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<v Speaker 4>is Germany's biggest bank, and that's one of the biggest

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<v Speaker 4>manufacturing economies in the world. That bank is fine, but

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<v Speaker 4>the credit default swaps went up like thirty percent last

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<v Speaker 4>week because people got worried about it because of credit

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<v Speaker 4>squeeze and because of the fact that if we go

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<v Speaker 4>into some global recession, Germany is going to feel it's

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<v Speaker 4>a it's a really big manufacturing economy.

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<v Speaker 6>So somebody put in a chat, what is the fall

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<v Speaker 6>on case safe.

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<v Speaker 4>Up to two hundred and fifty thousand dollars it is

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<v Speaker 4>that's insured again. That is if you're a broker goes down,

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<v Speaker 4>if your broker gets taken over or goes into.

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<v Speaker 2>Receivership with the s I p C. Right, but not

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<v Speaker 2>if you make a bad decision within your four one

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<v Speaker 2>K that's your problem.

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<v Speaker 4>But your money that you have in there right now

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<v Speaker 4>is in shured up to two hudred and fifty thousand

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<v Speaker 4>dollars should your broker fail.

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<v Speaker 6>Is there a historical precedent set for a brokerage account

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<v Speaker 6>a brokerage going out of business and people losing money

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<v Speaker 6>like that? Has that ever happened?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? You heard about Celsius. Have you heard about FTX? Well,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean like.

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<v Speaker 4>Like a real broker, no real broker, like a chop

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<v Speaker 4>shop shops all day long, chop shops out on Long

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<v Speaker 4>Island all day long, like.

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<v Speaker 2>The Wolf of Wall Street. Yeah, Wolf of Wall Street

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<v Speaker 2>type chop chops, but not a not like squab that

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<v Speaker 2>they usually get acquired. They usually don't write people want

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<v Speaker 2>those accounts.

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<v Speaker 4>And a bear Stearns is different, right, That was a

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<v Speaker 4>you know, global bank that was having super liquidity problems

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<v Speaker 4>and a huge run on the stock and the Fed

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<v Speaker 4>did not let it go under.

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<v Speaker 2>They were a broker too, but they're really an investment bank.

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<v Speaker 4>So nobody, nobody of that scale. Oh, chop shops go

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<v Speaker 4>out of business every single day.

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<v Speaker 3>God, you brought up gold and so it makes me, wonder,

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<v Speaker 3>are there other commodities that we should keep our eye on?

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<v Speaker 3>In twenty twenty three?

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<v Speaker 2>Are are the ones that we should keep on our watchless? Absolutely? Chocolate, guys.

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<v Speaker 4>I was looking at stocks at fifty two week highs

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<v Speaker 4>just before we got on because I like to see,

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<v Speaker 4>as Ian knows, trends in motion. Sometimes stay in motion

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<v Speaker 4>until something breaks. There are two chocolate companies.

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<v Speaker 2>That are at all time highs fifty two week highs, Hershey,

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<v Speaker 2>and what's the other Monoliuese? Maybe that makes chocolate as well.

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<v Speaker 2>I was blown away by that. So chocolate.

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<v Speaker 4>Keep an eye on that. Keep an eye on sugar,

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<v Speaker 4>Keep an eye on copper. Everybody makes a big deal

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<v Speaker 4>about gold because it's the shiny object in the room.

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<v Speaker 2>We call copper doctor copper erners. What's up?

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<v Speaker 7>You ever walk into a small business and everything just

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<v Speaker 7>works like? The checkout is fast? There are seats, are

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<v Speaker 7>digital tipping is a breeze, and yet out the door

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<v Speaker 7>before the line even builds. Odds are they're using square?

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<v Speaker 7>We love supporting businesses that run on square because it

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<v Speaker 7>back end so you can keep pushing your vision forward.

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<v Speaker 7>This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank.

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<v Speaker 7>A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring,

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<v Speaker 7>and sure, they definitely can be, but understanding of professionals

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<v Speaker 7>routine shows us how they achieve their success little by little,

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<v Speaker 7>day after day. It's like banking with P and C Bank.

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<v Speaker 7>It might seem boring the safe plan and make calculated

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<v Speaker 7>decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is

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<v Speaker 7>what helps you live or more happily fulfilled life. P

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<v Speaker 7>and C Bank brilliantly boring since eighteen sixty five. Brilliantly

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<v Speaker 7>boring since eighteen sixty five is a service mark of

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<v Speaker 7>the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. P and C Bank

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<v Speaker 7>National Association member FDIC.

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<v Speaker 4>For for a reason, copper is a great leading indicator

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<v Speaker 4>of where the economy is going and often where the

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<v Speaker 4>market will follow, because we use copper in all kinds

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<v Speaker 4>of things, right We use have been phones we's been manufacturing,

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<v Speaker 4>use them in our dental equipment. We use copper all

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<v Speaker 4>the time. So that's a great leading indicator to watch.

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<v Speaker 4>And I would keep an eye on lumber prices as well.

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<v Speaker 4>You guys, remember we were talking back in twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 4>one or twenty twenty under prices were.

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<v Speaker 2>Sky high and then they crashed.

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<v Speaker 4>Watch lumber prices to see if we're going to get

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<v Speaker 4>some sort of a rebound in the housing life.

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<v Speaker 5>That hershon's at ninety three dollars and twenty eighteen it's

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<v Speaker 5>aid two fifty ninety.

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<v Speaker 2>Right now, go figure. I don't even know.

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<v Speaker 3>No, I was saying, Lemon prices are great for people

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<v Speaker 3>who you know in construction or building.

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<v Speaker 2>Go they they know the price of a board right now.

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<v Speaker 4>They can tell you right now to the penny.

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<v Speaker 5>If I'm watching the show that I'm terrified, I'm seeing

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<v Speaker 5>all the bank of news, I'm seeing FTX blow up

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<v Speaker 5>and seeing SCV blow up. What three pieces of advice

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<v Speaker 5>which you give to someone who's watching that wants to

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<v Speaker 5>invest but it feels like it's the most terrifying time

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<v Speaker 5>to do.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's a great question. And I get scared.

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<v Speaker 4>I've been in this a long time, and I get

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<v Speaker 4>scared sometimes too. So I have a couple of rules,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think I've heard in say this too. What's

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<v Speaker 4>your threshold? What's your threshold for losses?

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<v Speaker 2>For me? That threshold and.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm fifty two, right, I've got about thirty four and

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<v Speaker 4>hopefully thirty years of investing left in front of me,

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<v Speaker 4>and that's a long time. My threshold probably for losses

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<v Speaker 4>is around fifty percent until I'm just like, I can't.

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<v Speaker 4>So I you know what my pain point is, right?

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<v Speaker 4>What can I recover from? What do I have the

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<v Speaker 4>time to recover from? So you got to determine that right.

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<v Speaker 4>Then realize that these things happen a lot, right, These

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<v Speaker 4>cycles happen. They may feel like they're happening a lot

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<v Speaker 4>quicker these days, time is compressed. Social media is giving

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<v Speaker 4>us the echo chamber. It feels like it's all coming

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<v Speaker 4>at us at once. Last week felt like six months.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, I was talking about this NonStop. So if

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<v Speaker 4>these things happen, and they're happening faster, but eventually they resolve.

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<v Speaker 2>We go through cycles.

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<v Speaker 4>This is a pure product of massive inflation coming out

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<v Speaker 4>of the pandemic, a huge rise in interest rates to

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<v Speaker 4>tamp down inflation, and all the broken pieces that we're

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<v Speaker 4>going to discover, or as Warren Buffett likes to say,

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<v Speaker 4>when the tide goes out, we're going to see who's

0:10:40.280 --> 0:10:42.440
<v Speaker 4>swim and naked. There's a lot of bank swimming naked.

0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:45.080
<v Speaker 4>There's a lot of tech companies swim and naked right now.

0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:48.920
<v Speaker 4>Right there's a lot of companies that binged on cheap money.

0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.840
<v Speaker 4>Right But this cycle is going to end at some point,

0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:53.679
<v Speaker 4>and you can actually see it in the FEDS dot

0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:56.440
<v Speaker 4>lot and in their summary of Economic projections. Road's going

0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:58.719
<v Speaker 4>to slow this year a lot, it's going to pick

0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:01.040
<v Speaker 4>up a little next years, are going to come down

0:11:01.080 --> 0:11:03.280
<v Speaker 4>to around three percent by the year twenty twenty five.

0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:06.880
<v Speaker 4>That is a much more normalized oper environment for investing.

0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:09.520
<v Speaker 4>And by the way, while we're all worried about a

0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:11.920
<v Speaker 4>bear market, we're not in one anymore. And the Nasdaq

0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:13.880
<v Speaker 4>gets on its way to a bull market, so there's

0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:15.000
<v Speaker 4>always a place to invest.

0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:16.000
<v Speaker 2>Cycles happen.

0:11:16.200 --> 0:11:18.000
<v Speaker 4>You got to stay with it and you got a

0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:20.200
<v Speaker 4>dollar cost average because if you were smart and I

0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:21.840
<v Speaker 4>heard you in saying this, I heard you guys saying

0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:24.080
<v Speaker 4>in the last couple of shows, you've been dollar cost

0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:26.560
<v Speaker 4>averaging into your favorite stocks for the past eight to

0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:29.920
<v Speaker 4>ten months. You're smart, and you've been getting great deals,

0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:32.240
<v Speaker 4>and your average price is low, and you're probably sitting

0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:33.160
<v Speaker 4>on games right now.

0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:34.120
<v Speaker 2>So that's what I would say.

0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:37.520
<v Speaker 4>These things pass and then we resume, we normalize, and

0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:41.679
<v Speaker 4>then something else happens. But long term investors, right the tortoises,

0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:43.400
<v Speaker 4>they're the ones that usually win the race.

0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:48.000
<v Speaker 6>You said a Nastac is headed towards a bull market. Yeah, well,

0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:51.240
<v Speaker 6>elaborate on that as far as the long term. So

0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:55.680
<v Speaker 6>it's high was fourteen, six hundred and forty six. It's

0:11:55.720 --> 0:12:02.160
<v Speaker 6>currently at eleven thousand, seven hundred and sixty eight backhand math,

0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:06.000
<v Speaker 6>that's probably still thirty percent off of his peak.

0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:08.080
<v Speaker 2>Right, But you want to look at where it is

0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:08.840
<v Speaker 2>off of it's low.

0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.280
<v Speaker 6>No, No, I'm just saying so, So what I'm saying is that,

0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:14.280
<v Speaker 6>what's the outlook for it? What's the outlook for the

0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.520
<v Speaker 6>nasdack next year and a half?

0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:21.840
<v Speaker 4>Well, Because the Nasdaq is a market weighted index, right,

0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:24.880
<v Speaker 4>market cap weighted index. In other words, it's moved by

0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:27.079
<v Speaker 4>the size of the biggest stocks in the index. It's

0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:30.000
<v Speaker 4>going to move wherever Microsoft and Apple and a Nvidia

0:12:30.160 --> 0:12:33.600
<v Speaker 4>want to take it. Right, So as investors are thinking

0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:35.760
<v Speaker 4>the Fed's going to eventually pause, that's.

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:37.199
<v Speaker 2>One of the reasons we've seen this rally. One.

0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:39.840
<v Speaker 4>Apple and Microsoft feel like safe stocks. They pay dividends,

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.400
<v Speaker 4>they're massive, they have a lot of cash. But also

0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:45.439
<v Speaker 4>as interest rates cool start to cool a little bit,

0:12:45.559 --> 0:12:48.760
<v Speaker 4>maybe after May, after June, they're going to either stay

0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:50.439
<v Speaker 4>kind of at these levels or they're going to come down.

0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 4>Over the next two years, these tech companies are going

0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.199
<v Speaker 4>to benefit. So the Nasdaq's going to do well because

0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:58.000
<v Speaker 4>it's market weighted and the biggest stocks drag it around.

0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 4>And as long as investors are piling into the safety

0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:02.959
<v Speaker 4>of big tech stocks right now like they are, the

0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:06.080
<v Speaker 4>nazak's going to keep rising. Now we get another shock

0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:08.360
<v Speaker 4>to the system that could change everything. But right now

0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.720
<v Speaker 4>you're seeing this bifurcation right of what was hot is

0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:15.200
<v Speaker 4>no longer hot, but also the twenty twenty stocks, those

0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:17.960
<v Speaker 4>are long gone, but the leadership is back in the big,

0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:22.320
<v Speaker 4>the big strong tech stocks, so that NAZAC should continue

0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.079
<v Speaker 4>to do pretty well. It's already separated from the SMP

0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 4>five hundred aut I don't know sixteen percent or so,

0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.800
<v Speaker 4>so that I would I would probably think that that's

0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:34.000
<v Speaker 4>going to continue unless we get another shock in the

0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.560
<v Speaker 4>FED goes for raisin rates a full percentage point, which

0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:39.040
<v Speaker 4>they won't do because that'll break everything. So I like

0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.640
<v Speaker 4>the trend of the NAZAK right now, and I buy

0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:45.440
<v Speaker 4>the qqq ETF and I buy it all the time, up, down,

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:48.439
<v Speaker 4>all time highs, you know, fifty two weeks low. I

0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:50.520
<v Speaker 4>keep buying it because I believe in that, like you guys,

0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.840
<v Speaker 4>growth long term.

0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:59.080
<v Speaker 6>My graduates from my school being forced bad drops rop

0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:02.120
<v Speaker 6>rock back drop, back drop,