1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: India is often cited as the next rising Asian power, 2 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:11,959 Speaker 1: right thereafter China. Its balls say India as ascendant because 3 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:17,280 Speaker 1: of its growing population, tech savvy, d'aspora, and democracy, among 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: other things. Few discussions of Asia's future are complete without 5 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: the obligatory reference to China and India, often in the 6 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: same sentence. Both are frequently shorthand for the future of 7 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 1: the world. But is China really the best comparison or 8 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 1: is it merely the easiest? Does the narrative about India 9 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: China rivalry obscure more than it enlightens. Welcome to Benchmark, 10 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: a show about the global economy. I'm Annual Moss, columnists 11 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Opinion in New York, and I'm Scott Landman 12 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: and economics editor with Bloomberg News in Washington. A more 13 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: interesting way of looking at India today might be to 14 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 1: compare it to America in the late nineteenth and early 15 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: twenty centuries. That was the era of the so called 16 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:23,040 Speaker 1: robber barons of tycoons like Rockefeller and Morgan. And today 17 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: in India we have tycoons that have a kind of 18 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: a similar profile in their society. Dan tell us a 19 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: little bit about our guests. Our guest is James Crabtree, 20 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 1: an associate professor at the Lee Kuan New School of 21 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 1: Public Policy in Singapore. He's a former Financial Times journalist 22 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: who's just published The Billionaire Raj, a journey through India's 23 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: new guilded age. James, congratulations on the book, Thanks for 24 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: joining us, Thanks for having me. How different our India 25 00:01:57,080 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: and China? And what, if anything does the shorthand link 26 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: between the two, miss I think that you're starting premise 27 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: in your introduction is the right one, which is, these 28 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 1: are two very different economies. China's is state dominated. India's, 29 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 1: although it has a healthy state sector, is predominantly private sector. 30 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 1: Um China has a strong government that is capable of 31 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,519 Speaker 1: doing things India, with the best wood in the world, 32 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: does not. And most crucially, China began its liberalization process 33 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: a good ten years before India, maybe twenty years depending 34 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 1: on how you count it, and so China is a 35 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: much much larger economy. This plays out in the way 36 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: that people misread these two Asian giants, or one Asian 37 00:02:37,080 --> 00:02:39,160 Speaker 1: giant and one Asian giant in waiting. If you look 38 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: at an issue like the size and the middle class, 39 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 1: people look at them as if they're the same. But 40 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 1: the Chinese middle class is vast. The number of online 41 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 1: shoppers in China now is greater than the number of 42 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 1: online shoppers in the entire of the rest of the 43 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: world combined. The Indian middle class is stupid tiny. I mean, 44 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: maybe eighty million people out of population at one point 45 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: three billion would classify as the sort of middle class 46 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 1: customer that that you know, your listeners would imagine someone 47 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 1: who has a petrol driven vehicle and some savings in 48 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: the bank and a higher education. So they're very, very 49 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 1: different economies, and so it's often not that helpful to 50 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: take a kind of crude comparison between the two of them. James, 51 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: let's talk about how that plays into your book, you know, 52 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:28,239 Speaker 1: thinking about the government's role in the economies of China 53 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 1: and India. China had the state sponsored economy for some 54 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 1: decades after the Communist Revolution. Subsequently, in the late nineteen 55 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: seventies started to step away, which allowed the flourishing of 56 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: the kind the economy that you see today. Can you 57 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: tell us about India and how the government plays a 58 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: role in India's economy and how that has either helped 59 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: or held back and how that set the stage for 60 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: the rise of the billionaire class that you talk about 61 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: in your book. So India and China have been through 62 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: a similar stage in their economic development, or China has 63 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: been through. In India is going through this early stage 64 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:12,400 Speaker 1: of industrialization, which comes with a number of other things, 65 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 1: massive urbanization, the development of the middle class um and 66 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: big infrastructure development and its infrastructure, which I think is 67 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: the most instructive comparison, because China has been through the 68 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 1: largest infrastructure investment in human history, and it was predominantly 69 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 1: driven and even directed by the states. So the government 70 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 1: decided what should be built, and the people who are 71 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 1: building it were largely state back companies, not necessarily wholly 72 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 1: stay owned, but they were controlled by the state. India 73 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:44,919 Speaker 1: in the two thousands went through a similar infrastructure boom, 74 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 1: and typically we view India as having fairly hopeless infrastructure. 75 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:50,920 Speaker 1: But actually if you go to the major Indian cities 76 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 1: now and you go to their airports, they're not the 77 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: airports that you think. They are. World class airports in 78 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: almost every case. Now every big Indian city has a 79 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 1: has a world class airport, and the most they opened 80 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: in the last five to ten years and almost all 81 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: of these were put in by big private sector conglomerates 82 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: run by tycoons. The same is true of the steel 83 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 1: mills and the iron ore mills, and the ports on 84 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: the coast, and the and the toll roads between the cities. 85 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 1: And that is where the comparison with America and the 86 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: Gilded Age sort of bears out, because these have both 87 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: been countries where the risk taking and industrial development has 88 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: predominantly been taken on by the private sector. Now in 89 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 1: the Indian case, it is funded by public sector banks. 90 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: And you know, the government plays an important role because 91 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 1: you can't get land to build a road or or 92 00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: a steel mill without the government say so. But it's 93 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 1: really been the private sector that has taken the lead. 94 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: And I think it's probably fair to say that the 95 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: investment that went into India in the two thousands was 96 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 1: probably the largest private sector investment in history since America 97 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: built its railways. So you know, you're you're talking about 98 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: a very substantial role for the private sector. In the US, 99 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 1: there's a strong perception that China's government and its companies 100 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: are one that the state that is a communist party, 101 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: has co opted business in pursuit of national goals. Listening 102 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: to you speak, I wonder whether the reverse is true 103 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: in India. Companies have co opted the state. It's a 104 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 1: very nice way of putting it. I think that definitely 105 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: was true in the middle of the two thousands. So 106 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,919 Speaker 1: take take a step back. India became independent from Britain 107 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 1: in seven and then for forty years shut itself off 108 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,799 Speaker 1: from the rest of the world and developed a socialist 109 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 1: planned economy. Your listeners may be familiar with the phrase 110 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,600 Speaker 1: the Hindu rate of growth, the sense that India was 111 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,200 Speaker 1: a basket case that couldn't really grow more than four 112 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 1: or five It opened up and began to liberalize, but 113 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: it was really in the two thousands when things really 114 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: kicked off, and that was when India began to grow 115 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 1: it around eight percent a year, and you also got 116 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 1: a wave of corruption handles, many of them to do 117 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 1: with infrastructure investment or extractive industries or rent seeking. And 118 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: it was at that moment that the point you make 119 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: appeared to be true, where it really looked as if 120 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: the large tycoons had just got the government in their pocket. 121 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: They were bribing left, right and center, and that was 122 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 1: when you had a big public reaction against grand corruption 123 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: India in its pre liberalization time, We've always had corruption, 124 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: but it was pretty small bore stuff. You know, you 125 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 1: had to play a bribe to a policeman, you had 126 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 1: to pay a bribe to get your driving license, your 127 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 1: marriage certificate. It was only after liberalization. And this also 128 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: happened in different ways in China and Russia too. But 129 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 1: as the economy grew, the value of corruption grew with it, 130 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: and so suddenly you had this grand not rather than 131 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: retail corruption, you had a wholesale corruption. That has tapered 132 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: off a little bit. So into India's people elected Randramodi, 133 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: the current Prime Minister, won an overwhelming landslide. That was 134 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 1: partly because he stood as a pro growth, pro business candidate, 135 00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: but he was also staunchly anti corruption. And so this 136 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 1: sense that the tycoons have the Indian government in their 137 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,600 Speaker 1: pocket has tapered off a little bit. But I think 138 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: it's certainly true to say that if you look at 139 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: it the other way around, which is China. China's government 140 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: is very strategic in the way that it directs investment, 141 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,360 Speaker 1: and presently, for instance, is trying to roll out it's 142 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:19,679 Speaker 1: China Plan to develop world class advanced manufacturing in areas 143 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: like robotics and aeronautic manufacturing. India is much less good 144 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: at that at sort of the state directing industry strategically 145 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 1: and enabling it so that you get the kind of 146 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 1: injuries industries you need to develop. Why don't you tell 147 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: us a little bit about one of the main figures 148 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: in your book, Mukesh Ambani, one of the wealthiest men 149 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: in India. Who is he? Is there anybody in the 150 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: United States that might be an equivalent to like Jeff 151 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: Bezos or you know, how how did he amass not 152 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 1: just his wealth but the power. You have some pretty 153 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 1: interesting ecdotes in your book where people don't even want 154 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 1: to talk about him. He just has so much hidden 155 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:10,079 Speaker 1: power behind the scenes. There's an Indian newspaper editor called 156 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,400 Speaker 1: Shaker Gupta. He's one of the pre eminent columnists in India. 157 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 1: On Twitter earlier this week he sent me a little 158 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: message saying, you know, you're quite brave to have written 159 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: this book. And partially what he means is that people 160 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 1: in India a bit careful writing about the big business people. 161 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: Not because like Russia, you're going to end up dead 162 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,719 Speaker 1: in a ditch. But these people, they have a lot 163 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: of power they remember, and so people are somewhat cautious 164 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: about about writing about them. I mean, I had left 165 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 1: the country son, since I'm somewhat protected, and Ambani is 166 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,199 Speaker 1: the most sort of famous I suppose of these examples. 167 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: So let's start from the beginning. The American edition of 168 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: my book on its front cover has a picture of 169 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 1: his house, which is called Antilia. It is a a 170 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 1: hundred and seventy meter residential skyscraper that towers over downtown Mumbai. 171 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 1: It's a family home for Sambani, his wife and his 172 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: three chill Droun and you know, it's large enough to 173 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: be a gigantic hotel. It has all sorts of luxurious 174 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: a coutoment from an indoor put football pitch and swimming 175 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: pools and all the things you'd expect, hanging gardens, roof terraces, 176 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: and people call it the billion dollar Home. Nobody really 177 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: knows how much it actually cost to build. But there's 178 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 1: this sense that this is really the icon of what 179 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,440 Speaker 1: I have called India's New Gilded Age, because it's one 180 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: of the most visible buildings in Mumbai, which is the 181 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: financial capital and the richest city in India. But it's 182 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 1: still a city where something about half the residents live 183 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 1: in slums and in a country where GDP per capital 184 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: is about sevent d dollars. Muka Schambanni who is he? 185 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: It's quite difficult to compare him to an American capitalist 186 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: because he runs, as many Asian tycoons do, a very 187 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,679 Speaker 1: distributed conglomerate. So he inherited it from his father, and 188 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:56,199 Speaker 1: his father started out in plastics and moved into petro 189 00:10:56,320 --> 00:11:00,439 Speaker 1: chemicals and oil refining. Muk Shambani has recently he spent 190 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 1: an enormous amount of money thirty billion dollars launching a 191 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 1: fourth generation mobile telephone business. But he has his fingers 192 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: in all sorts of pies. He has media, hotels, bits 193 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:13,679 Speaker 1: and bobs of financial services, all sorts of things, and 194 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 1: it's a very distributed business. Oil and gas it's a 195 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 1: big business. So they do energy exploration. And he's not 196 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: just the richest man in India and his personal fortune 197 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 1: is forty billion dollars, so he's the richest man in 198 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: Asia according to the most recent Forbes list. The reason 199 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 1: why he's so feared partly is the legacy of his father, 200 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,719 Speaker 1: who was India's pre eminent tycoon before him. And had 201 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: a reputation for you know, knowing how to work the 202 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: system to to make money. Is a ferociously competitive and 203 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,200 Speaker 1: his son has inherited some of that as well. Chambani 204 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 1: is known as a ferocious competitor who will spend whatever 205 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 1: money and you know, indulge in whatever tactic is necessary 206 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: to get what he wants. And his investment in what's 207 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,839 Speaker 1: called reliance Geo. This new Greenfield mobile telephone network is 208 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 1: an example of a quite tycoon like venture in the 209 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: sense that no sensible board of a Western style company 210 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: would have green lit spending thirty billion dollars to build 211 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,959 Speaker 1: a new fourth generation mobile outfit in India, which is 212 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: an incredibly competitive mobile that mobile market in which almost 213 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 1: none of the companies make any profits because it's so competitive, 214 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: And yet he sank more money into one company than 215 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: all of the rest of the Indian telecom companies had 216 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:32,599 Speaker 1: spent collectively since liberalization. I mean, it was just a 217 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,840 Speaker 1: it's an insanely ambitious venture. And in the book, so 218 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: I suppose I have to say I sort of admire that. 219 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: I mean, what's the point of being a tycoon if 220 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: you can't take these ridiculous big bets that's sort of 221 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 1: the point of building a railway between New York and 222 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 1: Los Angeles, or you know, these huge, bold, visionary things. 223 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: The problem in India traditionally has been that you can 224 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 1: take a lot of risk as a tycoon, but you 225 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: don't take any of the downside of that risk because 226 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: as you have great control over the banks, you don't 227 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: have to pay back your debts. It's it's almost unheard 228 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: of for Indians to go bust. So the tycoons have 229 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,559 Speaker 1: a lot of power. So tell us a little bit 230 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: about your background. You were the ft bureau chief in Mumbai. 231 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: Did that mean you were the head of all FT 232 00:13:17,240 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: reporters in India. No, the South Asian Bureau chief sits 233 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: in Delhi. So typically that's how it works. The Ft 234 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: obviously is a much smaller operation than the giants of Broomberg. 235 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: So we had a couple of people in Mumbai and 236 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 1: a couple of people in Delhi, and so I was 237 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: in charge of writing about banks and finance, heavy industry, tech, telecoms, cricket, Bollywood, 238 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,319 Speaker 1: whole range of fun stuff. But it was we'll get 239 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 1: to cricket in a second. If it was, it was 240 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 1: from the beginning of the right from the start that 241 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: I got there. I arrived in twenty eleven. That was 242 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 1: the period of these corruption scandals, and so I sort 243 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 1: of arrived on the on the turn, as it were, 244 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: the moment when the real boom years were just beginning 245 00:13:56,080 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 1: to peter out. And what then happened, which was, uh, 246 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 1: you know, the tide went out and you began to 247 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 1: see who was still less standing, as it were, and 248 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: so a number of these conglomerates, it turned out to 249 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 1: have taken on far too much risk and got themselves 250 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: into big trouble. And this has been a theme of 251 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 1: the Indian economy ever since. Then. You have what's called 252 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: the twin balance sheet problem, where there's far too much 253 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: debt in the corporate center and much too much bad 254 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: loans in the banking system. And so India has been 255 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: struggling to come to terms with the sort of the 256 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 1: after effects of the boom in the mid two thousands. 257 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 1: And did you ask to go to India or were 258 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: you assigned? Now I've desperately wanted to go. I've been 259 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 1: to India before. You know, India's a fascinating country. It's 260 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: a wonderful place to be a journalist. It's very open. 261 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: If you compare South Asia, which is chaotic, to East Asia, 262 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: which is very well organized. But but South Asia is 263 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 1: very open society. Indians love to talk. If you go 264 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 1: in there, particularly if you work for a top tier 265 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: media organization like Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal or 266 00:14:57,240 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: the Ft, get great access. People will talk to you. 267 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: The Indian elite it's quite Western in its orientation. They 268 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: send their kids to American universities, their own houses in London, 269 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: they care, they get their capital from Western capital markets. 270 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 1: None of this is really true in China. That's not 271 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: to say that the Chinese are for the kids going 272 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: to university in the US. That's true. But and that's 273 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,160 Speaker 1: not to say that China's elite is insular. It isn't. 274 00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 1: But the Indian elite is particularly concerned with what is 275 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: said about it and is very well networked into the 276 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: global financial sectors London and New York. And that means 277 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 1: you get a peculiar insight into what's going on. And 278 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: I also think that typically when outsiders like us right 279 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: about India, we tend to do it from Delhi. The 280 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: typical book written by a foreigner about about India tends 281 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: to look at Indian politics. And so although I've often 282 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: joked that it's not as if the world was crying 283 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 1: out for another book written about India by a white 284 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: British journalist, I think mine is at least a little 285 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 1: bit different because it was written from Mumbai, and it's 286 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: written through the lens of business, and that's what I 287 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: was interested in. I never was that interested as a 288 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: journalist in writing about MidCap companies in London. But what 289 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: captured my imagination was the sheer risk taking that has 290 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: to go on in India at this stage in its development. 291 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 1: And I think if you were a journalist in America 292 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 1: and eight and you're watching Cornelius Vanderbilt or Jay Gould 293 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 1: or the true robber Barons, then these are exciting people. 294 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 1: If you were either Tarbell, yeah, exactly, if you're a 295 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 1: muck breaker, these are exciting people. And they're exciting partly 296 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 1: because of the boldness of their their capitalism, but also 297 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 1: because of the way they're bending the rules. And so 298 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 1: there's this this sort of very enchanting combination of risk 299 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: taking of a sort that are more established Western PLC 300 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: simply is not allowed to do. Maybe if you cover 301 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 1: somebody like Elon Musk you could say that you have 302 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: buccaneering tycoons of of a sort of similar quality who 303 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: are who are doing things that are simply the sort 304 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: of thing you wouldn't normally get on on Wall Street, 305 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: or it's not stretched across the entire our economy the 306 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 1: way someone like Muskies. Right, Well, I suppose that's true, 307 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: But anyway, that was that was what that was what 308 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 1: captured my imagination about India. This combination of risk taking 309 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 1: and rule bending, I thought was just a fantastic story. 310 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 1: Is the State of the Billionaire raj as we like 311 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 1: to It's a great title for the book. By the way, 312 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 1: Uh do you see that going on for a long time? 313 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:27,959 Speaker 1: And we talked a bit about at first we've alluded 314 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: to the guilded age, you know, that era in the 315 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 1: United States, and you just have this massive inequality in India. 316 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: Obviously these you know, a billionaire like on body who's 317 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: building his own billion dollar home. You know, often the 318 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 1: politics from from the outside, it seems to be kind 319 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:51,560 Speaker 1: of paralyzed and not really going anywhere. Is this state 320 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 1: of affairs of India's economy? Inequality? Is that likely to 321 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 1: persist for a long time? Or you know, do you 322 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 1: see this kind of working its way through the system 323 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 1: that you know there might be a way to equalize 324 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 1: that in the economy somehow. That's a great question. I mean, 325 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 1: I think for India it has to be that this 326 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 1: should be a passing phase and not a permanent condition, 327 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 1: because if it's a permanent condition, that's problematic for a 328 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,120 Speaker 1: for a whole range of reasons. Countries that start off 329 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: very very unequal tend to stay that way, like Brazil 330 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,360 Speaker 1: or South Africa, and that stores up problems for later. 331 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 1: It's much more difficult to reverse these trends, and very 332 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 1: unequal countries come with particular challenges. However, there's nothing particularly 333 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 1: unusual about what's going on in India at the moment. 334 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 1: We've talked about the American guilded age, and I think 335 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 1: if you were sitting where we are now in New 336 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 1: York as a media organization in eight and you looked 337 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 1: at the United States, you could very well say, you know, 338 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:55,160 Speaker 1: this is an absolutely hopeless country. It's politicians are completely venal, 339 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: it's tycoons are corrupt, its politics is disorganized. The no 340 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,439 Speaker 1: and that this is going to become a great superpower 341 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 1: looks rather fanciful. And yet over the next twenty or 342 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: thirty years you had a range of things that happened. 343 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: The middle class began to assert more control over politics. 344 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: You had the development of different types of institutions, You 345 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,919 Speaker 1: had anti corruption campaigns. There a whole range of things 346 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: which meant that you know, twenty or thirty years later, 347 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: things look rather different. The thing that has to happen, however, 348 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: I in the billionaire rage, I say, has these three 349 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: characteristics the rise of the super rich and the inequality 350 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: that came with it, endemic chrony capitalism, and then a 351 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: boom and bust investment model. And I think it's difficult 352 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:40,120 Speaker 1: to see India moving quickly from its current position. It's 353 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:41,879 Speaker 1: not really a poor country anymore. It's a sort of 354 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 1: lower middle income country through the ranks of middle income 355 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 1: status to become, you know, a rich country by some 356 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 1: time in the second half of this century, unless it 357 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,679 Speaker 1: fixes these three problems. And we we've seen countries do this. 358 00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: I mean that the successful developing economies of East Asia 359 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 1: have all managed to do this, but they did it 360 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,959 Speaker 1: in a particular way. They were more egalitarian than India 361 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 1: is now. Crucially, they also had a different economic model 362 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 1: because they were better at export focused manufacturing and India 363 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 1: is not very good at that. So that's another part 364 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 1: of the puzzle. But I think if India is going 365 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: to develop successfully, it needs to act pretty quickly to 366 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 1: try and find a way of bringing this extreme inequality 367 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 1: under control. Cricket, let's talk about that. How has the 368 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:27,399 Speaker 1: game developed in India and what role does it play 369 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:32,239 Speaker 1: in trying to understand the modern Indian economy. I'll just 370 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,680 Speaker 1: back up a bit for some listeners. The game's ancestral 371 00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: home is England. In the late nineties seventies, thanks largely 372 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: to changes initiated by an Australian businessman called Carrie Packer, 373 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: Australia became the financial driver of the game. Has that 374 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 1: now shifted to India? And what does that tell us? 375 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: So cricket is a fascinating example and I think fits 376 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 1: absolutely squarely within the book. So there's a chapter in 377 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,679 Speaker 1: the book on cricket. I used to cover cricket not 378 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: as a sport but as the business of sports, and 379 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: cricket is very, very lucrative in India. And yeah, I 380 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,719 Speaker 1: mean not absolutely no question that the idea that anyone 381 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,199 Speaker 1: other than India controls the finances of world cricket is 382 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 1: now fanciful and has been for probably ten or fifteen years, 383 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: but the gap just gets bigger and bigger. But cricket 384 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,360 Speaker 1: is interesting for a different reason, which is there are 385 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 1: very few examples of industries in which India is the 386 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 1: world leader. There will be over time, as with China, 387 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 1: as India grows to become the It's already the third 388 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: largest economy by by PPP. But you know, as it 389 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 1: becomes bigger and bigger and bigger, there will be many 390 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:37,920 Speaker 1: areas that India comes to dominate, but at the moment 391 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 1: there are very few, and cricket is definitely one. And 392 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 1: you see, that's sort of the good and the bad 393 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: of the Indian economy being reflected in the way that 394 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: cricket is now run. So the good, all of that 395 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: money has actually improved cricket a great deal. Cricket used 396 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:56,879 Speaker 1: to be a rather, you know, sort of tired, uninteresting game. 397 00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:58,879 Speaker 1: People like you and me might have liked it, but 398 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: it was compared to football or basketball, it's certainly lacked 399 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,360 Speaker 1: a bit of razzle dazzle. And India basically by pushing 400 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 1: a short term, more vibrant, more television friendly form of 401 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:13,159 Speaker 1: the game. Pumping it up with money has turned cricket 402 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,399 Speaker 1: on its head, but actually made it much more palatable. 403 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,199 Speaker 1: That's certainly true domestically in India, where you know, you 404 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: have built lots of great stadiums and that sort of thing. 405 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 1: But the dark side has come that actually the same 406 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 1: story that you had in mining or telecoms was true 407 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 1: in cricket as well. You have questionable government standards, corruption scandals, 408 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 1: chrony capitalism in which you had effectively the same kind 409 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 1: of collusion between the politicians who ran the game and 410 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 1: the business people who sponsored the game. And so cricket 411 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 1: has become an example of the new India writ large, 412 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 1: it's more vibrant, but it's also more corrupt. Let's talk 413 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: about those politics for a moment. Prime Minister Moody was 414 00:22:55,080 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 1: elected in He was widely viewed as a business can 415 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,439 Speaker 1: to person who is going to bring a very different 416 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 1: kind of administration to India, and yet governing is always 417 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 1: tougher than it looks. How is his government doing and 418 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,640 Speaker 1: how has the relationship with the billionaire class in India 419 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: evolved under Moody. On the surface, I think Moody has 420 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 1: done reasonably well India's headline growth rate is strong. It's 421 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: the world's fastest growing major economy and has been for 422 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 1: many of the last four years. It sort of goes 423 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 1: back and forth with China depending on how much juice 424 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 1: the Chinese are putting into their economy. The mega corruption 425 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 1: scandals have stopped, and they've introduced some broadly sensible reforms, 426 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 1: particularly goods and services tax of value added tax. The 427 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 1: fiscal situation is broadly under control. So that's all pretty positive. 428 00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 1: But I think that the criticism of Modi would be 429 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 1: that while he's been a good administrator of the Indian economy, 430 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: he hasn't been a very radical reformer of the Indian economy. 431 00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 1: And you can look at that across a whole range 432 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 1: of areas. So we've mentioned already the twin balance sheet problem, 433 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 1: one of the huge the fact that India has had 434 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 1: almost a lost decade of industrial investment because it's companies 435 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 1: have too much debt and its banks have lots of 436 00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 1: bad loans. He hasn't fixed that big underlying structural problems, 437 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,239 Speaker 1: changes to how you get a hold of land, how 438 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 1: the tax system works, a bunch of these structural economic reforms. 439 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,199 Speaker 1: He hasn't really managed to push through, and so I 440 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 1: think in a sense there were people who had much 441 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 1: higher hopes for what he would be able to achieve. 442 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:33,159 Speaker 1: What has struck you about Americans views towards Asia generally 443 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,399 Speaker 1: and India in particular. Well, I have a self interest 444 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 1: in saying this, but I think everybody needs to spend 445 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,479 Speaker 1: a lot more time thinking about India than they do. 446 00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,199 Speaker 1: Now I have a book to promote. So you might say, well, 447 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 1: he would say that anyway, But I think it's clear 448 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 1: that in the U S and to some degree ever else, 449 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,760 Speaker 1: we we view Asia through the prism of China, and 450 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 1: I think actually there is a case to say that 451 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 1: India is more important China. China is clearly the path 452 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,040 Speaker 1: is almost set now it is degenerating into a kind 453 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 1: of neo Leninist autocracy. India is much more in play 454 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 1: for the kind of country that it will become. And 455 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 1: we we in the West, we who believe in free 456 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 1: markets and the power of business, have a great self 457 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: interest in India becoming a middle income parliamentary democracy with 458 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 1: a broadly secular culture and liberal rights. That is probably 459 00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:21,120 Speaker 1: the path that India will take. But you know who 460 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: can tell it's It's the great swing state of the 461 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,359 Speaker 1: twenty one century at a time in which the die 462 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 1: looks increasingly cast between the West and China. And therefore 463 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,080 Speaker 1: I think I think people probably pay a little bit 464 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 1: too little attention to India and could probably pay pay 465 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:39,440 Speaker 1: a little more. The term Indo Pacific has proliferated here 466 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: in the US the past couple of years. What does 467 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,680 Speaker 1: that mean to you? Well, the Indo Pacific, which is 468 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 1: often called the free and open Indoor Pacific, is a 469 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: is a new attempt to justify the current status quo, 470 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 1: the American led global order. This is sometimes called the 471 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: rules based global order. The Indo Pacific as a particular 472 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: term became more prominent when President Trump went to Asia 473 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 1: at the end of last year. And it's instead of 474 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,879 Speaker 1: talking about the Asia Pacific, which is the way that 475 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 1: the people normally talk about that region, it's been enlarged 476 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,520 Speaker 1: to call it the Indo Pacific, with the specific aim 477 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: of basically bringing India together with the US, Japan, and 478 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 1: Australia to some degree as the sort of friends. Broadly 479 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 1: speaking of the US, is this thing called the Quad. Yeah, 480 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: that's the Quad, which is part of the notion of 481 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 1: the free and open Indo Pacific. But it's basically an 482 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:35,119 Speaker 1: attempt to try and balance Asia against the rise of 483 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:39,440 Speaker 1: China and to try and draw India more firmly into this. 484 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 1: They don't want to say anti Chinese, but I mean, 485 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 1: you could call it what it is. I mean, it's 486 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:45,879 Speaker 1: certainly the reason why people are coming up with this 487 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: is that all of these countries are worried about the 488 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:49,679 Speaker 1: rise of China and what that will then mean to 489 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: the system of rules in Asia. However, this is happening 490 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 1: at a time in which America, in theory, is the 491 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 1: architect of the free and open indoor Pacific. But then 492 00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 1: of course President Trump is going around destroying large arts 493 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,879 Speaker 1: of that order that in a sense of America is 494 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 1: claiming to protect. And so it's very complicated situations for 495 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 1: countries like India to some degree in Japan, South Korea 496 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 1: that they all quite like the status quo, but the 497 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:14,880 Speaker 1: country that is meant to be leading the status quo 498 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,399 Speaker 1: is also undermining it. And so it's a very complicated 499 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,159 Speaker 1: situation in Asia at the moment in which people are 500 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 1: pretty confused about American leadership. Well, we almost got through 501 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 1: an entire episode without mentioning President Donald Trump. So I 502 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 1: think we're just going to have to end it right there. 503 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 1: My apologies, all right, James Crabtree, Arthur of the Billionaire RAJ, 504 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us on Benchmark. Thank you. 505 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:44,120 Speaker 1: Benchmark will be back next week. Until then, you can 506 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com or 507 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:52,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg App, and podcast destinations such as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, 508 00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:55,000 Speaker 1: or wherever you listen. We love it if you took 509 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 1: the time to rate and review the show so more 510 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: listeners can find us. You can follow O me at 511 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 1: Moss Underscore Echo, I'm at scott Landman, and our guest 512 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:10,440 Speaker 1: is at at James Crabtree. Benchmark is produced by Tofa Foreheads. 513 00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:15,479 Speaker 1: The head of Bloomberg Podcasts is Francesca Lead. Thanks for listening. 514 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:16,680 Speaker 1: To see you next time.