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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 1: Sisting just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 1: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How

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Speaker 1: shot with that shop of mind? But buddy, and that's

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Speaker 1: why you see nor beautiful tiers. Look at his movements

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Speaker 1: the most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picts them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: Again. The wall. It's left too, the wide eyed, drilled fibus,

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Speaker 1: How old Earth big that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 3: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leeboff, and

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Speaker 3: joining me today is beaj A Cunningham. Anthony de is

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Speaker 3: on vacation. I think he's at the Big East Tournament

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Speaker 3: or something like that. Either way, we will trudge on

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Speaker 3: without his insight for a loaded weekend of Premier League action.

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Speaker 3: Right off the top, we do have to say there

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Speaker 3: are four Premier League games on Thursday. We are recording

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Speaker 3: this on Wednesday night in order to get this out

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Speaker 3: on Thursday morning. Those matches are in Nord City, versus

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Speaker 3: Chelsea Wolves, versus Watford Saints, versus Newcastle and Leeds versus

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Speaker 3: ass and Villa. But we will still do our best

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Speaker 3: to handicap every match that we can and get you

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Speaker 3: prepared for the upcoming weekend of soccer action. And we

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Speaker 3: will start with a twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday

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Speaker 3: between Manchester United they're plus one fifteen at Old Trafford

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Speaker 3: hosting Tottenham Hotspur who are plus two forty five. The

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Speaker 3: draw for this one is plus two to fifty. On

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Speaker 3: the surface, it seems like a pretty classic by low

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Speaker 3: Sell high spot Spurs coming off a five mil drubbing

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Speaker 3: of Everton who basically didn't show up to Tottenham Hotspur

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Speaker 3: Stadium Monday, and Manchester United they got played off the

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Speaker 3: park by their inner city rivals Manchester City in a

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Speaker 3: not so close loss in the Manchester Derby, and United

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Speaker 3: struggled with with good sides this season. I think we've

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Speaker 3: been talking about how we were skeptical of their improved

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Speaker 3: metrics for a while because they were playing such a

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Speaker 3: soft schedule, and if you look at how they've done

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Speaker 3: against the big boys of the Premier League like Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, arsenal.

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Speaker 2: I mean even Watford.

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Speaker 3: They've struggled with Watford too, kiddy. The United's just their

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Speaker 3: numbers aren't that good.

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Speaker 2: Bja.

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Speaker 3: I actually think Spurs is the value side on this one.

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Speaker 3: We'll see where this market goes. But plus two forty

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Speaker 3: five for me, I think is enough to get in

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Speaker 3: on Tottenham.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I definitely agree with that. It's a little

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Speaker 1: bit too low for me to play. Instead, I'm going

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Speaker 1: to be looking at the total over two and a

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Speaker 1: half goals of minus one thirty. I mean, the matches

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Speaker 1: against Athletic go and man City have just truly shown

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Speaker 1: that this Manchester United team hasn't changed a bit really

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Speaker 1: from Rangnick of oldunny soul shark. They got completely dominated

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Speaker 1: in the Manchester derby on Sunday. They did not have

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Speaker 1: a shot for the entire second half, allowed City four

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Speaker 1: goals two point seven expected goals. It was just a

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Speaker 1: really bad performance. On the flip side, Tottenham, No, their

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Speaker 1: defense isn't anywhere near the level of Manchester City. Sure,

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Speaker 1: they beat Everton five nothing on Monday. Look, I mean,

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Speaker 1: we can try to sugarcoat at all we want, but

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Speaker 1: it was just a bad performance by Everton. But Spurs

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Speaker 1: have allowed eleven point two expected goals and there's seven

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Speaker 1: previous matches from the one against Everton and only two

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Speaker 1: of those opponents were actually in the top seven, So

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Speaker 1: facing Manchester United is going to be a step up

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Speaker 1: in competition. Overall for the season, Tottham is thirteenth and

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Speaker 1: shots lowed per ninety and tenth in big scoring chants allowed,

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Speaker 1: but also not a great pressing team and only tenth

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Speaker 1: and pass per defensive action, seventeenth in pressure success rate

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Speaker 1: and actually the fewest high turnovers in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: That's huge for Manchester United, who has really struggled to

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Speaker 1: play through pressure this season. United they should be getting

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Speaker 1: Ronaldo back it looks like on Saturday, which obviously will

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Speaker 1: be a big boost for them. Even though they have

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Speaker 1: played a relative easy schedule under Rangnick, still one point

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Speaker 1: six expected goals per match. I have a round three

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Speaker 1: point three goals projected, so it is you know, ted

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Speaker 1: pricey over two and a half goals at minus one

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Speaker 1: thirty both teams of scorer is also pretty pricey at

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Speaker 1: minus one to fifty five with both of them, I

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Speaker 1: would be willing to pay that type price because I

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Speaker 1: don't see anything other than chaos in this match, given

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Speaker 1: how not only good Tottenham's offense has been, how talented

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Speaker 1: man United's offense has been, but how shaky man United

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Speaker 1: has looked defensively, and also Tottenham even that the Beverton match,

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Speaker 1: even they Toffees did create a few chances here and there,

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Speaker 1: but especially against bigger sides, Tottenham has allowed a ton

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Speaker 1: of chances. So over two and a half goals and

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Speaker 1: minus one thirty is where I'm going.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a pretty good live betting match too.

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Speaker 3: If if Spurs go down early, I think I will

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Speaker 3: be in on them again because I don't trust Manchester

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Speaker 3: United to hold the lead at all.

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Speaker 2: All right, we'll move to Saturday morning.

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Speaker 3: The seven thirty am kickoff is Brighton There at home

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Speaker 3: plus five point fifty hosting Liverpool minus two to five.

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Speaker 3: The draw here is plus three. Liverpool's long on Beaten

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Speaker 3: Street came to an end against Interim a lot in

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Speaker 3: the Champions League. They also lost one nil at Anfield.

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Speaker 3: There was their first home loss in about it a

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Speaker 3: year and it kind of drove home at the point

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Speaker 3: that I was making in our Champions League podcast, which

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Speaker 3: these performances are starting to show from Liverpool and I

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Speaker 3: think going against them will finally pay off. I know

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Speaker 3: I sound like a broken record. They are still maybe

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Speaker 3: the second best team in the world, sure, but they're

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Speaker 3: giving up scoring chances. They're getting by against teams like

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Speaker 3: west Ham and they had to come from behind against

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Speaker 3: Nowork City. There are just some cracks showing on the

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Speaker 3: defensive side of the ball. Some defensive regression is coming

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Speaker 3: for this team and they struggle with Brighton, who is

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Speaker 3: an underdog that likes to punch up and they do

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Speaker 3: it very well. We like to bet on Brighton when

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Speaker 3: they're at big prices on the show and I'll be

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Speaker 3: doing it again this season. At Anfield, they drew one

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Speaker 3: one with Brighton.

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Speaker 2: The expected goles was basically.

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Speaker 3: Split down the middle, and over the past few seasons

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Speaker 3: Brighton is actually to and zero win draw loss against Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: So you're giving me plus five to fifty against a

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Speaker 3: team that has kind of turned into a bogie team

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Speaker 3: for Liverpool at home, I'll take it.

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Speaker 2: Despite the fact.

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Speaker 3: That Brighton has really struggled lately. They're zero and four

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Speaker 3: wind draw loss with a minus eight goal differential nine

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Speaker 3: goals against one goal four. However, those numbers are little

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Speaker 3: inflated they expected goals has them suggest they should have

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Speaker 3: four goals over that span and I've only allowed six

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Speaker 3: and a half. Still not good, but better than what

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Speaker 3: their actual results are. So I'll take a shot Brighton

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Speaker 3: bet anything better than five to one for me.

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Speaker 2: I like the Seagulls.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm probably gonna end up passing on this one.

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Speaker 1: That match against Liverpool earlier the season was really interesting

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Speaker 1: because Liverpool actually went up to nothing and Brighton just

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Speaker 1: started to control the possession. They started to control the

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Speaker 1: midfield and they really created two really nice chances and

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Speaker 1: ended up drawing two too. You go back to that though,

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Speaker 1: Liverpool was without a lot of their central midfielders, so

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of chances for Brighton with their build

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Speaker 1: up plate to take advantage of Liverpool's midfield. Obviously Liverpool

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Speaker 1: is healthy now, but they have to be exhausted. I

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Speaker 1: mean this is their fourth match in ten days. I

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Speaker 1: understand Klop now has a ton depth and he can

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Speaker 1: rotate a lot of guys, but still it's it's a

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Speaker 1: tough it's a really it's really a Sandwich spot because

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Speaker 1: obviously playing Inter on Tuesday and then they've got Arsenal

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday, so big time Sandwich spot going on the road.

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Speaker 1: My projections, I have this pretty much debt on. I

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Speaker 1: have Liverpool at around minus one ninety five, the total

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Speaker 1: set right at three, so there really isn't much value

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Speaker 1: for me Brighton. It's tough, you know. Losing four straight

156
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Speaker 1: and losing the expected goals better in all four against

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Speaker 1: some pretty weak competition outside of Manchester United is a

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Speaker 1: little bit concerning for the Seagulls. They're starting to drop

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Speaker 1: a little bit of the table, but they're going to

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Speaker 1: be comfortably mid table for the rest of the season.

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Speaker 1: So definitely, if I was going to play anything, it

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Speaker 1: would probably be Brightened, But since my projections have this

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Speaker 1: right on, I'll be passing.

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Speaker 3: There's only one ten am kickoff on Saturday because of

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Speaker 3: the scheduling wonkiness from the Comicron surge. There's a game

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Speaker 3: at seven thirty am Saturday, ten am on Saturday, two

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Speaker 3: thirty pm on Saturday, and then a bunch of ten

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Speaker 3: am starts on Sunday and we also have Monday night football.

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Speaker 3: So the only ten am game is Brentford and Burnley

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Speaker 3: in a relegation six pointer. The Bees are plus one fifteen,

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Speaker 3: Burnley comes back plus two sixty on the road. The

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Speaker 3: draw here is plus two thirty. This let's set up

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Speaker 3: the relegation battle. Right as it stands, a bunch of

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Speaker 3: these teams are playing on Thursday. Newcastle they have twenty

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Speaker 3: eight points from twenty six games, the Bees Brentford they

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Speaker 3: are twenty seven points from twenty eight games. Then we

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Speaker 3: get Leads twenty three points from twenty seven games, Evertton

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Speaker 3: twenty two points from twenty five games, Burnley twenty one

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Speaker 3: from twenty six. There in eighteenth, Watford nineteenth with nineteen

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Speaker 3: points in twenty seven games played, nord City seventeen points

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Speaker 3: from twenty seven games played. Norich, Watford, Newcastle and Leeds

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Speaker 3: are all playing on Thursday, so this could look different

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Speaker 3: by the time you're listening to this. However, I think

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Speaker 3: this pretty good spot to get in on Brentford. I

185
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Speaker 3: think we're starting to see them turn a corner a

186
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Speaker 3: little bit here, and I want to beat the market

187
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Speaker 3: to it. Even though this number isn't that great, it's only,

188
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Speaker 3: you know, it's not a huge number. That said, you know,

189
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Speaker 3: you're getting plus money at home against the team that's

190
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Speaker 3: in eighteenth place in the League, So maybe it's nothing

191
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Speaker 3: the thumbier nose that Burnley's lust two in a row

192
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Speaker 3: six goals against zero goes four The expectacles suggest that

193
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Speaker 3: those numbers are a little inflated. However, It's just not

194
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Speaker 3: a great matchup for Burnley, except for the fact that

195
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Speaker 3: Brentford does have trouble defending set pieces. I do trust

196
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Speaker 3: the Bees and their slight out tick and form. They

197
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Speaker 3: did show something Christian Erikson should make a difference. Ivan

198
00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,360
Speaker 3: Tony looks to be back at form as well, so

199
00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:38,400
Speaker 3: I think we're going to be getting a performance from

200
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Speaker 3: Brentford that looks more like the team we saw in

201
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Speaker 3: September and October than the one we've seen in the winter.

202
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Speaker 1: Absolutely, you hit the nail right on the head. This

203
00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:50,520
Speaker 1: is just the match against Norwich was one of those finally,

204
00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,120
Speaker 1: like finally, Brentford put together a big formance. I understand

205
00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:54,880
Speaker 1: they had a couple penalties in there, but still it

206
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Speaker 1: was the culmination of a ton of overdue positive regression

207
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Speaker 1: for the Bees. Since they're bad runs started back on

208
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Speaker 1: January eleventh. They've picked up only four points in nine matches,

209
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Speaker 1: but based on expected points, they should have around a

210
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Speaker 1: little over ten so they're still due for more of

211
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Speaker 1: that positive aggrets and the return of Ivan Tony is

212
00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,559
Speaker 1: so he's just so important for their attack. He's got

213
00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:18,880
Speaker 1: a point five to two x G plus expected as

214
00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,400
Speaker 1: says per ninety minute rate, which is the best on

215
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Speaker 1: the team and is in the top twenty in the

216
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Speaker 1: Premier League. Burnley back to back pretty bad defensive performances

217
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Speaker 1: for them, you know, the Chelsea match. For the first

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Speaker 1: half they look to be in it and then Chelsea

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Speaker 1: kind of put them away in the second, but still

220
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Speaker 1: not a great defensive performance. There's just sloppiness in those

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Speaker 1: two matches versus Lester and Chelsea. This is another pretty

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Speaker 1: good spot here for Brentford to serge here offensively. The

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Speaker 1: biggest thing though is the home road splits. We've talked

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Speaker 1: about Brentford and Burnley just at nauseum. The home roads

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Speaker 1: split's Brentford plus two point two expected goldf French at home,

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Speaker 1: Burnley minus eleven expected goldffrenchal on the road. So I

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Speaker 1: have Brentford projected at minus one fourteen, so it definitely

228
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Speaker 1: is some value on the B's at plus one fifteen day.

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Speaker 3: Morning ten am kickoff between Chelsea there minus three twenty

230
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Speaker 3: hosting Newcastle plus nine to fifty on the road to

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00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,400
Speaker 3: draw here is plus four to fifty. Both teams in

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Speaker 3: action on Thursday, Chelsea taking on Norich City at Cara Road.

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Speaker 3: Newcastle will be traveling.

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Speaker 2: South to southampt.

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Speaker 3: It's not a great spot for Newcastle in terms of travel,

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Speaker 3: but I think it's an interesting spot to take on Chelsea.

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Speaker 2: They'll be looking ahead to a Champions League game in

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Speaker 2: the midweek coming up.

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Speaker 3: Newcastle has been better. I think they've been much better

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Speaker 3: than I've expected. I've been wrong on them all season,

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Speaker 3: or at least since Eddie how It took over.

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Speaker 2: And I think that.

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Speaker 3: This is a game where Chelsea they're pretty comfortable in

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Speaker 3: their spot. It's not they're kind of playing out the

245
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Speaker 3: string in the Premier League. They could rotate their squad

246
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Speaker 3: to keep them fresh for the Champions League, especially if

247
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Speaker 3: they get to win against Norch City as we all.

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Speaker 2: Expect them on Thursday.

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Speaker 3: So I think you're getting a pretty big number on

250
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Speaker 3: Newcastle and it's one thing I'm probably not going to

251
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Speaker 3: look away from. At plus nine to fifty, so I'll

252
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Speaker 3: be on the Magpies money line. I think, maybe for the.

253
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Speaker 2: Second time all season, I'll be beding on Newcastle and

254
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Speaker 2: uh don't feel good about it, but I'm gonna do it.

255
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Speaker 1: It's interesting obviously, since we're taping this before the Thursday matches,

256
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Speaker 1: I'm very very I'm not really interested to see what

257
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Speaker 1: happens with Chelsea and Norwich. It is where it is,

258
00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:14,280
Speaker 1: unless obviously Norwich pulls off some crazy upset. But I'm

259
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Speaker 1: very interesting to see what Newcastle does against Southampton because

260
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Speaker 1: since they're recent resurgence since the January transfer Windo when

261
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Speaker 1: they brought in pretty much one hundred million dollars worth

262
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Speaker 1: of players, they've had a pretty easy schedule. They've played Watford, Leeds, Everton,

263
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Speaker 1: west Ham, Aston Villa, Brentford Brighton and then Southampton on Thursday,

264
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Speaker 1: so they haven't really faced the top side and I'm

265
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Speaker 1: very interesting to see how they'll deal with that because

266
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Speaker 1: they're trying to switch to a four to three three.

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Speaker 1: They're trying to play more possession based, which they've done

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Speaker 1: their last two matches. But how are they going to

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Speaker 1: be out of possession? Are they going to fall back

270
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Speaker 1: into the normal Newcastle four to four to two under

271
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Speaker 1: Steve Bruce or are they going to try to play

272
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Speaker 1: with Chelsea in the four to three three and play

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Speaker 1: up tempo. I think that would be a recipe for

274
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Speaker 1: disaster Forwich. The last time these two teams faced it

275
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Speaker 1: was you know, obviously things have changed quite a bit,

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Speaker 1: but Newcastle did absolutely nothing for the whole match. Chelsea

277
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Speaker 1: beat them three nothing at Saint James Park. Newcastle had

278
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Speaker 1: point three expected goals. Chelsea outpassed them seven hundred and

279
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Speaker 1: seventy nine to two twenty seven. Newcasts only had six shots.

280
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Speaker 1: So I'm pretty much dead on with the market here

281
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Speaker 1: with my projections, so I'm happy to pass maybe taking

282
00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:27,520
Speaker 1: a look at an under, but other than that, I'm

283
00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,760
Speaker 1: just very interested to see how Newcastle's going to perform

284
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Speaker 1: against one of the top sides.

285
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:36,320
Speaker 3: Leeds United and nord City, another relegation six pointer. Leeds

286
00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:38,920
Speaker 3: is minus one seventy. Their odds on at home taking

287
00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:40,840
Speaker 3: on nord City plus four to fifty. The draw is

288
00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:43,840
Speaker 3: plus three forty. The market I think in this match,

289
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:45,720
Speaker 3: maybe more than any other one with that will be

290
00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,440
Speaker 3: affected by Thursday. This one can move a lot after

291
00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,319
Speaker 3: we recorded this because Leeds is playing Villa and Leeds

292
00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,800
Speaker 3: look pretty good under Jesse Marsh in their first game

293
00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,360
Speaker 3: against Leicester, So good performance from Leeds and this number

294
00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,520
Speaker 3: could actually balloon even further, which is interesting since they

295
00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:03,040
Speaker 3: are already minus one seventy despite the fact that they

296
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:07,160
Speaker 3: are in sixteenth place in the table. However, this matchup

297
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,360
Speaker 3: I think sets up pretty well for the Peacocks and

298
00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,000
Speaker 3: I like taking them on an all spread minus one

299
00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,000
Speaker 3: and a half, minus two and a half whatever you

300
00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:15,560
Speaker 3: float your boat minus one and a half right now,

301
00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,040
Speaker 3: I think it's plus one forty three I saw. And

302
00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:19,680
Speaker 3: the reason I like that is because I think they're

303
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,000
Speaker 3: going to win this game, and in true Leads United fashion,

304
00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:23,880
Speaker 3: if they do win this game, it's probably going to

305
00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,000
Speaker 3: come by multiple goals against a team that shouldn't be

306
00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:29,960
Speaker 3: able to take advantage of Leeds's biggest bugaboo, which is

307
00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:33,080
Speaker 3: their defense. Nord City's attack has been awful all season,

308
00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,080
Speaker 3: so in terms of a matchup, can't get better than

309
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,520
Speaker 3: this for basically anybody, because it's Nordcha City and I'd

310
00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:44,000
Speaker 3: rather take the big price on something then you just

311
00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:45,400
Speaker 3: lay it with Leads or throw them in a money

312
00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:45,920
Speaker 3: line parlay.

313
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:49,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I'm on Leads minus one at even money.

314
00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,080
Speaker 1: This is one of those situations where since ivis the

315
00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:54,680
Speaker 1: recording this before but on Thursday. What I usually do

316
00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:57,640
Speaker 1: in a situation like this where I know that the

317
00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,520
Speaker 1: Leeds number could potentially get a lot better or a

318
00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,360
Speaker 1: lot worse, considering they're basically a pick them against Aston Villa,

319
00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have that leads spread open during the match.

320
00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,680
Speaker 1: If they go up or they look are starting to

321
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:10,960
Speaker 1: look really good in the first half, it's automatic fire

322
00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,600
Speaker 1: on leads. If they start to stumble or maybe fast

323
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,000
Speaker 1: and Villa gets ahead on a couple of low quality chances,

324
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:18,640
Speaker 1: I'll probably wait for the end of the match and

325
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:20,960
Speaker 1: see if the market over reacts to that and potentially

326
00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,040
Speaker 1: get leads at a better number. I don't think you're

327
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:24,680
Speaker 1: going to I don't think the Norwich Chelsea match is

328
00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,440
Speaker 1: really going to affect this number at all. But very

329
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,400
Speaker 1: similar to that, I'm waiting on to see what happens

330
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,600
Speaker 1: with leads. I mean, they look so good under Jesse

331
00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:33,680
Speaker 1: Marsh that first match, so this is a really good

332
00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:35,920
Speaker 1: opportunity I think to get it at a cheaper price.

333
00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,920
Speaker 1: I mean, we've said it so many times and we've

334
00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:42,640
Speaker 1: set it in so many different iterations, but Norwich is

335
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,880
Speaker 1: just horrible, Like there's just really no other way to

336
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,400
Speaker 1: describe how bad they are. Offensively. They're now in dead

337
00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:51,960
Speaker 1: last and non penalty expected goals by a pretty considerable margin.

338
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,960
Speaker 1: They're dead last and shots bernandi and big scoring chances.

339
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,080
Speaker 1: In fact, they haven't created a big scoring chance in

340
00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,920
Speaker 1: their last five matches. Their defense is also been really

341
00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,000
Speaker 1: bad the last five thirteen point six expectable is allowed

342
00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,520
Speaker 1: in those. In those matches they're near the bottom in

343
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:08,560
Speaker 1: the Premier League. Get playing through pressure, which is not

344
00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:10,880
Speaker 1: a good match Begainst Leads, who actually in their first

345
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,960
Speaker 1: match under Jesse Marsch I mentioned the last podcast had

346
00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,240
Speaker 1: pressed around one hundred and ninety times in the match,

347
00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,160
Speaker 1: which is what well above the average they were doing

348
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:22,440
Speaker 1: under Bielsa. So Leeds being at Allen Road where they're

349
00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 1: much better only around of minus three expected older ferential

350
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,240
Speaker 1: versus minus thirteen on the road. I think this is

351
00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 1: a really good spot for them with the new manager

352
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,760
Speaker 1: bounce under Jesse marsh I have Leads projected around minus

353
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 1: one point two, so I minus wanted even money. I

354
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 1: think you get decent value on the Peacocks.

355
00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not much we can really say to keep

356
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 2: something up. How bad North City is they're bad. Did

357
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,320
Speaker 2: good on them for hanging they should have been out of.

358
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,640
Speaker 3: This race, I think six weeks ago, seven weeks ago,

359
00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,360
Speaker 3: but good for them. I just think sticking around west

360
00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:56,240
Speaker 3: Ham or plus one twenty favorites hosting Aston Villa plus

361
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,200
Speaker 3: two forty five. The draw here is plus two forty

362
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,520
Speaker 3: that's a villain action on Thursday, and I think an

363
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 3: interesting spot in terms of a matchup. A Savilla's offense

364
00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:08,120
Speaker 3: doesn't really create much their nineteenth and big chances created

365
00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,119
Speaker 3: in the Premier League this season, and that's how you

366
00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:15,240
Speaker 3: should be taking advantage against west Ham, whose defense can

367
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:17,800
Speaker 3: be a little bit leaky. However, they're getting healthier and

368
00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,479
Speaker 3: I think their performance against Liverpool kind of showed that.

369
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:22,280
Speaker 2: Like I was sorry about Brentford.

370
00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 3: We're starting to see more performances from west Ham closer

371
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,400
Speaker 3: to what we saw when they were at their peak.

372
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 3: Not saying that we're going to see them, you know,

373
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,480
Speaker 3: pull the results like they did when they beat Liverpool

374
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,560
Speaker 3: in November, but I'm pretty confident that they're starting to

375
00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:37,399
Speaker 3: run back into form as well. So I'm closer to

376
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:39,600
Speaker 3: west Ham here, but the number is not big enough

377
00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,639
Speaker 3: for me because I just don't really think that Villa

378
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:43,960
Speaker 3: is going to be able to create enough.

379
00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, west Ham is started to trend in the right

380
00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 1: direction offensively, you know, after a couple really like four

381
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 1: straight dud performances in January. Three point four expected goals

382
00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,959
Speaker 1: in their last two matches against Wolves and Liverpool. However,

383
00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,119
Speaker 1: this situation isn't the best for them because they have

384
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,120
Speaker 1: on Thursday. They're traveling to Sevilla for a Europa League

385
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:03,920
Speaker 1: match on Thursday night and then they have to fly

386
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,159
Speaker 1: back for this one on Sunday. Also, it looks like

387
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 1: at the time of taping this that Jared Bowen is

388
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:10,919
Speaker 1: going to be out for west Ham and that's just

389
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,520
Speaker 1: absolutely detrimental to their offense. Point five to three xch

390
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 1: plus expected it'sis per ninety minutes. That's by far the

391
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 1: best rate on the team, similar to the Newcastle Southampton match.

392
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:24,439
Speaker 1: I'm very interested to see how Aston Villa plays on

393
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,560
Speaker 1: Thursday against Leeds because if they can back up their

394
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 1: tremendous offensive performance from the weekend against Southampton, then maybe

395
00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,680
Speaker 1: Gerard has them head in the right direction. But they

396
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,439
Speaker 1: have been overperforming offensively under him, twenty three goals off

397
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,720
Speaker 1: of only eighteen expected, So with the travel for west

398
00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,159
Speaker 1: Ham with Bowen being out, it's a pass for me

399
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:46,040
Speaker 1: on the money line potentially maybe looking at under under

400
00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:47,760
Speaker 1: two and f goals is a minus one o five

401
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,439
Speaker 1: right now. Again, I'm gonna wait and see what the

402
00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,760
Speaker 1: aston Villa performance looks like on Thursday, and if it's

403
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,920
Speaker 1: a complete dud offensively and it's a low event type

404
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 1: game against Leeds, which you know don't really doesn't really

405
00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,040
Speaker 1: happen when you play United, I might be firing on

406
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,080
Speaker 1: under two and f goals at minus one o.

407
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 3: Five Southampton or minus one sixty five hosting Watford plus

408
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 3: four to twenty five to draw here is plus three

409
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 3: thirty both teams in action on Thursday. Watford's defense we

410
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 3: still talked about it. It's improving under Roy Hodgson, and

411
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,439
Speaker 3: they found a way to score two goals against Arsenal

412
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,719
Speaker 3: last weekend, so who knows what's going to come out

413
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 3: of that offense and any given day usually it's a dud,

414
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 3: but they just pull out these performances out of nowhere.

415
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 3: I think this game sets up with both teams playing

416
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,600
Speaker 3: on Thursday and then so playing again in short rest

417
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,040
Speaker 3: and Watford would bite your hand off for a draw

418
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 3: and on the road at Saints. I think that this

419
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,639
Speaker 3: sets up for Roy Hodgson putting ten people behind the

420
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 3: ball slow, trying to do his best to slow Southampton

421
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 3: down just give them the ball, which I don't think

422
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 3: Southampton necessarily wants their team that loves the press and

423
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,159
Speaker 3: counter attack, So it just feels like it's going to

424
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,439
Speaker 3: be an ugly, ugly match, and I think it's a

425
00:19:56,600 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 3: recipe for success for a draw better And it's three

426
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 3: to one plus three thirty, so I'm going there.

427
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,359
Speaker 1: I'm kind of there with you. It's it's not a

428
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,360
Speaker 1: great spot for both either team, obviously having to play

429
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 1: on short rest, but especially for Watford having to travel

430
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 1: in back to back matches. I'll probably wait and see

431
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 1: what's happens on Thursday with both of these before playing this,

432
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,400
Speaker 1: but I think there's definitely some value on Watford here.

433
00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 1: I try not to overweight motivation and handicapping matches until

434
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 1: we get to the very end of the season, and

435
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,879
Speaker 1: that's basically when the market just drastically overreacts to teams

436
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,040
Speaker 1: that have to play for something in teams that don't.

437
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,159
Speaker 1: But Southampton is pretty comfortably in the middle of the

438
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 1: table while and they really have no shot of finishing

439
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,560
Speaker 1: inside the top seven, while Watford has absolutely everything to

440
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 1: play for. Like you mentioned, they'd bite your hand off

441
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 1: for a draw. Roy Hodgson, I agree with you. He's

442
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 1: actually doing a really good job with Watford and you

443
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 1: can make the case that they're due for a little

444
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 1: bit of positive regression. In his seven matches in charge,

445
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 1: Watford has a minus one point seven expected gold differential

446
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 1: but a minus six actual goal differential. In fact, his

447
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 1: expected gold differential per ninety minutes is minus point two

448
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 1: to three, which which is drastically better than the last

449
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 1: two managers who combined for minus zero point seven to

450
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 1: six per ninety minutes. So and Watford is actually in

451
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 1: the top half of the Premier League in big scoring chances,

452
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 1: which has been Southampton's bugaboo all season long. They've conceded

453
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:13,800
Speaker 1: the fourth most in the league. And if you look

454
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,439
Speaker 1: at any pretty much any other projection model from five

455
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:21,360
Speaker 1: thirty eight to Info Goal nobody has Southampton over fifty

456
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,680
Speaker 1: four percent, which is essentially minus one twenty So there

457
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 1: definitely is some value here on Watford. I love them

458
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: on the spread plus one at minus one twenty five,

459
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 1: just from a pure market perspective. At some point they

460
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 1: got to get a little bit of this positive regression

461
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 1: and the job they're doing on Roy Hodgson I think

462
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 1: bodes really well for them. At the Saint Mary Stadium

463
00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: on Sunday, I.

464
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 3: Don't want to do it, but we gotta. Let's talk

465
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:45,439
Speaker 3: about Everett in there plus one.

466
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 2: Let's do it there plus one thirty at home.

467
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 3: Hosting Wolves plus two thirty five, the draw is plus

468
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:55,400
Speaker 3: two twenty five. The relegation pressure is real on Frank

469
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,159
Speaker 3: Lampard's Toffees. They have Wolves and the Newcastle at home

470
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 3: coming up, two huge matches that anything less than four

471
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 3: points is a disaster. Honestly, anything less than six is

472
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 3: not good either. I do think they're catching Wolves at

473
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 3: a good time here, especially with Everton at home where

474
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 3: they looked much more comfortable under Lampard, and just generally

475
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 3: the question is for me, there's a.

476
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 2: Couple of things.

477
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 3: The Everdon defense was shambalic again against Tottenham, but they

478
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 3: were really good against Manchester City and that game came

479
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 3: at home. But City is a more of a lumbering attack.

480
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 3: They're not the kind of press encounter that take advantage

481
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 3: of a mistake and be opportunistic like Tottenham is, and

482
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 3: that is.

483
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 2: Kind of why I feel a little confident.

484
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 3: About this matchup against Wolverhampton. This offense is I don't

485
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 3: want to say they're toothless, but they are struggling, only

486
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,160
Speaker 3: three point one expected goals in their last four matches,

487
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 3: all losses, and they're not the type of team that's

488
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 3: going to take advantage of this Everton. The middle of

489
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,479
Speaker 3: the Everton defense, which whether it's Michael Kane, Jared Branwait,

490
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 3: Mason Holgate or Ben Godfrey, who is looking like he's healthy,

491
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 3: which would be a huge, huge improvement over what we've seen.

492
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 2: I just don't think this Wolves attack is.

493
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,199
Speaker 3: The one that's going to punish evert in for the

494
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,239
Speaker 3: mistakes that they will inevitably make. So I think it's

495
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 3: Everden or nothing at this number, but I don't know

496
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 3: if I have the cohones to do it.

497
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm there with you. It's definitely lean Everton here.

498
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 1: That's really the only play for this match. I mean,

499
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 1: there's really no way to share cota to what happened

500
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 1: on Monday. I already said it, but I mean it

501
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 1: was just bad, Like it's just a really bad Everton performance.

502
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 1: Now the question is can they put that in the

503
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: rear view mirror and you know, get up for this

504
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 1: match against Wolves, because what I will say about Everton

505
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 1: is a lot of their bad performances like the one

506
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: on Monday, have come against the top seven. And we've

507
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 1: said it. In the Premier League there is a very

508
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 1: clear top seven and it is a pretty steep drop

509
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 1: off from there, you know, with Wolves being sitting there

510
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: in eighth place. Everton versus the top seven the season

511
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 1: is averaging point seven three expected goals per match and

512
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: allowing one point seven eight. But against the rest of

513
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,719
Speaker 1: the Premier League they're averaging one point four to two

514
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: expecting goals per match and only allowing one point three four.

515
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,719
Speaker 1: So they I definitely have a good shot here. They'll

516
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 1: have the rest advantage over Wolves, who has to play

517
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: on Thursday afternoon. Wolves, the negative aggrestion is hitting them

518
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,919
Speaker 1: in a big way. They've lost three straight matches and

519
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 1: have lost the expected goals battle in nine of their

520
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: last ten matches. So definitely leaning Everton here. I do

521
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: not like the number at plus one thirty. I have

522
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 1: them projected at plus one fifty. I would prefer to

523
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: get Everton a draw no bet at something like minus

524
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: one ten minus one five. But if I can't get that,

525
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,439
Speaker 1: I'll ultimately just be passing on this one.

526
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 3: The twelve thirty pm kickoff on Sundays, your Arsenal gunner

527
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 3: sore minus two hundred hosting Leicester City.

528
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 2: The draw here is plus three sixty.

529
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 3: Arsenal has Liverpool coming up on Wednesday after, so a

530
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 3: little bit of a look ahead spot. However, there's plenty

531
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,120
Speaker 3: of reasons to pay attention to this match, with Arsenal

532
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 3: gunning for the top four and.

533
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 2: Playing well of late.

534
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 3: I do think that it's it's another spot where you're

535
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 3: getting a number that's way too high on the favorite.

536
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,160
Speaker 3: Arsenal minus two hundred is a little rich. They're still

537
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 3: giving up goals. Leicester we know can they can do

538
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 3: it quickly on the counter. However, their defense you can't

539
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 3: trust them either. So it does set up for which

540
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 3: should be a back and forth and fair I think

541
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna sit back and wait and look to live

542
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 3: bet this one. I think, especially if Lester goes down early,

543
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 3: you're gonna get a big number on them, and there's

544
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 3: a chance that this Arsenal defense can be picked apart

545
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 3: and Lester can come back, so I'll be looking a

546
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 3: live bet enjoy this one at twelve thirty hopefully after

547
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 3: an Ever did win.

548
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 2: But for the pregame market, nothing for me.

549
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually like over three goals and plus one

550
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 1: o five. Arsenal's offense. I mean I said last week

551
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,359
Speaker 1: it's been one of the best in the Premier League

552
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: so basically since the start of December, last ten matches,

553
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,679
Speaker 1: averaging two point one expected goals per match. Not only that,

554
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 1: but now they're inside the top five in the league

555
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: in both shots for ninety and box centuries. Now you

556
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: get to face a lesser defense that continues to be

557
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: one of the worst in the league. Last weekend they

558
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 1: allowed one point nine expected goals and nineteen shots to Leads,

559
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: but obviously ended up getting a clean sheet, actually back

560
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 1: to back clean sheets for Lester. Since Boxing Day, the

561
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: Foxes have allowed seventeen point four expected goals in nine matches.

562
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: Johnny Evans is still injured. That I mean Daniel Armadi

563
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:10,719
Speaker 1: will continue to have to play out a position at

564
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 1: center back, which clearly has not worked for the Foxes. Now,

565
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 1: on the flip side of that, you saw it on

566
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 1: Sunday Arsenal's defense ten has been a bit shaky. They've

567
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: made a few mistakes here and there. They've conceded in

568
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 1: three straight matches. So Lesser's offense, which has been trending

569
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 1: in the right direction, definitely should be able to create

570
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,200
Speaker 1: some big chances. We talk about it all the time

571
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,360
Speaker 1: with Lesser set piece issues leads to the Premier League

572
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 1: thirteen set piece goals loud, while Arsenal they scored nine

573
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 1: goals off set pieces this season. And also neither team

574
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 1: really presses at a very high rate, so there should

575
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 1: be plenty of open space, plenty of opportunities in each

576
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: final third for chances to be created. I have three

577
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 1: point two goals projected, so at a price of plus

578
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 1: one oh five on over three goals, I think there's

579
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:53,320
Speaker 1: definitely some value there.

580
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 3: And finally we will wrap up the EPL portion of

581
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 3: the program with Crystal Palace. They're nine to one at

582
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 3: home hosting Manchester City minus three twenty to the draw.

583
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 3: Here is plus four to seventy five. This is Monday,

584
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 3: three pm, Monday Night Football under the lights at Selhurst

585
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 3: Park City on sixty nine points from twenty eight games played.

586
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 3: Right behind them as Liverpool at sixty three points on

587
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 3: twenty seven games played. They still have to play each

588
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 3: other in April and the gold differential separation right now

589
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 3: is Manchester City at plus fifty Liverpool plus fifty one,

590
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 3: so we do have a title race.

591
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 2: On our hands.

592
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 3: Palace, of course, upset City is twenty to one near

593
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 3: twenty to one underdogs. A couple months ago that was

594
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 3: on the road, so revenched spot if you want to

595
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 3: look into it.

596
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 2: City just took care.

597
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 3: Of business in the Champions League and nil nil draw

598
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,400
Speaker 3: Agats Sporting which they won five nil and aggregate across

599
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 3: the two legs, so I'm not too worried about the rest,

600
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 3: especially since it's a Monday game.

601
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 2: Palace is a tricky spot. I think we can.

602
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 3: Both agree that Crystal Palace is compared to where they've

603
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 3: been in seasons past. They are improved, They're not easy

604
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 3: to break down, they're strong defensively. However, I just don't

605
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 3: think they're going to have the ball enough. I mean,

606
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 3: I don't think you're going to score. So this is

607
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 3: an undergame to me. I honestly don't mind betting like

608
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 3: an alt under, like maybe two and a half or

609
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:06,920
Speaker 3: if it's at.

610
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 2: One and a half. I don't know.

611
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 3: This screams one nail City win, like on a Readmirez

612
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 3: pk in like the thirty eighth minute or something, then

613
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 3: they hold on. It just doesn't sound like these two

614
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 3: teams I don't think will create much of an exciting affair,

615
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 3: so in likelihood to either pass or an under for me,

616
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 3: what about you?

617
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: I think the spot is fantastic for Crystal Palace, playing

618
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 1: into your your under narrative. Though when Palace is behind

619
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,479
Speaker 1: the season, they're only allowing around one point one expected

620
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 1: goals per ninety minutes and they're also one of the

621
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: best second half teams in the Premier League, so potentially

622
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 1: if you want to get in live on Palace, I

623
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: think they have a round a little over a plus

624
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: five and a half expected gold differential in the second half.

625
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 1: So if City goes up here, there is a potential

626
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: to play Crystal Palace live. But I love them pregame

627
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: plus one and a half at even money. We've talked

628
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: about it a ton, but Crystal Palace at home is

629
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 1: unbelievable fifth in the Premier League and expect gold, and

630
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: most importantly they have been really good against the big

631
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 1: boys at home against Tottenham, West Ham, Liverpool and Chelsea.

632
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: The Eagles have a plus two point four expected goal

633
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 1: deffential in those four matches, and defensively at home this season,

634
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: therowing along point eight nine xtal per ninety minutes. So

635
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 1: it's a really really good team. And you mentioned it

636
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 1: the revenge angle. They did hand message Manchester City one

637
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: of their three losses in the Premier League this season,

638
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: beat them to nothing. Now, man City did get a

639
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: red card in the forty fifth minute, but Wilfrid Zaja

640
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: did score in the sixth minute and then they ended

641
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 1: up holding City to only one point one expected goals

642
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: and one and only fourteen shots Man City. It's just

643
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 1: they're just in weird form. We said it like two

644
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: or three times already, but just since the start of

645
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 1: the new year, if you throw out the drubbing against

646
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: Norwich City has a plus point eighty eight expected gold

647
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: differential per ninety minutes, which sounds really good, but when

648
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: you compare it to their form of all of twenty

649
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: twenty one. Since start of the twenty this season, through

650
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, they had a plus one point eighty

651
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: three expected gold official per ninety minutes and it's starting

652
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 1: to kind of show in their level of play because

653
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: it has dipped a tad. Additionally, the injury to Ruben

654
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: Dis is a blow. Obviously, City has a ton of depth,

655
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 1: so you know it's not the biggest blow in the world,

656
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 1: but he is clearing away their best center back, so

657
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: it's going to have a little bit of effect. I

658
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 1: only have Manchester City projected their spread projected at minus

659
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: one point zero seven, so getting Crystal Palace at plus

660
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: one and a half at even money, it definitely for

661
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 1: me has some value and I think it's just a

662
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: really good spot for the Eagles, especially being on Monday.

663
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 2: Onto the Bundesliga. Now we'll give out a pick in Germany.

664
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 2: I like Mines again.

665
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 3: They with my team plus one eighty on the road

666
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 3: at Augsburg, my second best team in the Bundesliga in

667
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 3: expected goles against Augsburg. Their offense is near the bottom

668
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 3: and so is their defense, so you're talking about a

669
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 3: pretty good matchup.

670
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 2: I guess that on offense that shouldn't.

671
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 3: Be able to post much of a threat to both

672
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 3: fenced inside, so I think the number here is pretty good.

673
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 3: I may think mine should be a favorite, even on

674
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 3: the road against Oxburg. So yeah, going back to Mines

675
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 3: baby plus one eighty.

676
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 1: What a ludicrous line that is. I mean, what are

677
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: we doing here, like seriously, like Augsburg is so such

678
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: an overformer, so bad, should be in the relegation fight.

679
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: And we've always talked about how much we love Mines. Obviously,

680
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,479
Speaker 1: that match against Dormann got postponed because of COVID. I'm

681
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: pretty sure all Mines cases are gone and they're they're

682
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 1: gonna be fine for this match, so I believe that's

683
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: on Friday as well. So I mean, what a beautiful

684
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: Friday afternoon to take Mines. But I'm actually going Union

685
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: Berlin plus one oh five at home against Stuttgart. This

686
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: line for me is just way too low for incredibly

687
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 1: solid Union Berlin squad. They're one of the better defensive

688
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: outfits in the Bundesliga. Only one point three non penalty

689
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: expected goal is allowed per match. The reason for that

690
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: they do not allow a ton of high quality chances.

691
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: They're third in the Bundesligae, conceding only twenty nine on

692
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: the season. What's impressive about that, though, is they're actually

693
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,239
Speaker 1: not a big pressing team. They're dead last in the

694
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: bunasig and passes per defensive action. They play out of

695
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: either a three to five to two or a five

696
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 1: to three to two, which gives them a lot of

697
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 1: solidity at the back. But what it also means is

698
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 1: they're very reliant on their wing backs getting forward to

699
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 1: supply the attack and it shows in their numbers because

700
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: they're second in the Bundesliga and crosses completed into the

701
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 1: penalty area well, Stutgart is allowing the fifth most crosses

702
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 1: in the league. Stuttgart defensively has been a mess, seventeen

703
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: point six expected goals allowed in their last ten matches,

704
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: along with seventeen big scoring chances their second to last

705
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: in the league and shots aloud for ninety fourth to

706
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: last and expected goals allowed and third to last in

707
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: box centuries allowed. The last time needs two teams met

708
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:40,640
Speaker 1: as Stuttgart absolutely stole a point, they got a red card,

709
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 1: they were down one nothing and they got a ninety

710
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,479
Speaker 1: third minute goal, but Berlin outgraded them one point two

711
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 1: to awo point five, So I have Berlin projected around

712
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 1: minus one forty so at plus one oh five I

713
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: do like the value on them at home.

714
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 2: We'll go on to Syria. I'll be passing on the

715
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 2: Italian League this weekend. What about you?

716
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: Uh, Fiorentina under two and a half goals at plus

717
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 1: one p fifteen. When I saw this line, I was

718
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: just like, what are we doing here? Like? Are we

719
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 1: being serious? Because me and Anthey have talked about the

720
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 1: over performance in Italy and how just crazy these offenses are.

721
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 1: Since Plahovic left for Juventus, Fiorentina matches are only averaging

722
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 1: around two point five total expected goals. Bologna is one

723
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 1: of the more low event teams in Syria, but it's

724
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 1: a massive over performance. Their matches are averaging two point

725
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: three to five expected goals, but if you look at

726
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: actual goals they're averaging two point seven four. So essentially

727
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 1: Bologna is a very overrated offense and a very underrated defense,

728
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: which is a perfect recipe to bet on some regression

729
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: by taking me under. Fiorentina is actually number one in

730
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 1: Italy in shots laud per ninety minutes, only around nine

731
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: point three on average. Bologna offensively has been pretty pathetic,

732
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 1: only point nine to three non penalty expected goals per

733
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 1: match and only created seventeen big scoring chances in twenty

734
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: seven matches, so it's gonna be difficult for them to

735
00:33:57,760 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 1: break down one of the better defenses in Italy. Also,

736
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 1: these defenses are top four in Syria in XG allowed

737
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: per shot off of set pieces, which is really bad

738
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 1: news for both offenses who have been incredibly reliant on

739
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: set pieces and penalties to score goals. So I only

740
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: have around two point one goals projected so at under

741
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 1: two and a half at plus one fifteen, let's hope

742
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 1: we can get some of that positive aggression.

743
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 2: Ante La Liga.

744
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 3: I like Athletic Club bill Bao plus two thirty taking

745
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,720
Speaker 3: on Real Betis bill Boos on the road as a

746
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 3: pretty big underdog, but I think it's another good matchup

747
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 3: on a team that is generally underrated by the market, Rialbatis.

748
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 3: They're not terribly good defensively. They're fifteenth in La Liga

749
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 3: in big scoring chances allowed, fourteenth in non penalty expected

750
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 3: goals allowed.

751
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 2: Meanwhile bill Bao is.

752
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 3: Top six in both of those metrics. You flip it

753
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 3: on the defensive side, Bill Boo is third in preventing

754
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 3: big scoring chances and that's what you need to do

755
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 3: against this Real Bettis side, who is six in big

756
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 3: scoring chances allowed, fourth in non penalty expected goals for

757
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 3: ninety So I think it's a good matchup abou at

758
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:04,760
Speaker 3: a pretty big number. And look, they're like mines like Brighton.

759
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 3: These are the type of teams that you want to

760
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 3: back to punch up as underdogs because they are solid

761
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 3: in all three phases of the game. What do you

762
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 3: have for us in La Liga?

763
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: Real Associa Dad Alavese under two and a half goals

764
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty. The last time these two teams met,

765
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 1: it was a really cagy one one drawl around two

766
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: expected goals were created and I'm expecting this this time

767
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 1: around as well. Real Associate Dad. Let's just be flat honest.

768
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 1: They are not the offense we expected them to be

769
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 1: coming into the season. Ninth in non penalty expected goals

770
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 1: from match, thirteenth in shots per ninety minutes, seventeenth and

771
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 1: crosses completed into the penalty area For a team that

772
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 1: has Alexander Eeshach and Michel Olfabel, that is definitely not

773
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 1: good enough. And Alavese, while they're not maybe one of

774
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: the more better defensive teams in La Liga, they are

775
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: horrific offensively bottom three and every single offensive metric, including

776
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 1: averaging only point eight non penalty expected goals from In fact,

777
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 1: they've only created over one expected goal three times in

778
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 1: their last twelve matches, so I'm expecting a pretty low

779
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 1: event match here. I only have a round two point

780
00:36:09,719 --> 00:36:13,240
Speaker 1: zero five goals projected, so at a price of minus

781
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 1: one twenty on under two and a half goals, I

782
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 1: like the value on that.

783
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 2: All right, right back to you for a league Oh.

784
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:22,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, Lens plus one o five on the road at

785
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 1: Mets Mets is I think maybe the worst team in

786
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: the top five leagues. It's probably a battle between them

787
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 1: in Salad and Eitana in Italy. I mean, they are

788
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:36,839
Speaker 1: dead last in every single offensive metric. They've created only

789
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: over one expected goal twice in their last twelve matches.

790
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: Lens hasn't been in the best form in League one,

791
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 1: but this is just a terrific matchup for them. Still

792
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 1: top five and non penalty expected goals shots per ninety

793
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances allowed on the flip side fifth

794
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 1: in all the important offensive metrics. It's a team that's

795
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: due for a lot of positive regression. Just a good

796
00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 1: spot for them at a good price. I have them

797
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: for rejected at minus one twenty five, so at plus

798
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 1: one oh five on the money line, good price on

799
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: Lens get all three points at Mets.

800
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:11,800
Speaker 3: All right, let's go on to our favorite underdogs. Anthony

801
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 3: has sent in his from a vacation and it's Wolfsburg.

802
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 1: He's credentialed somehow at the ACC tournament. What does he

803
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: I mean, They're just they must be just giving out

804
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:24,320
Speaker 1: credentials to anybody these days.

805
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 3: Just just keep him far far away from from the professionals,

806
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 3: is all I'm going to say.

807
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 2: But for his underdog, he likes Wolfsburg.

808
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 3: There plus two forty five on Saturday morning on the

809
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 3: road taking on Freiburg in the Bundesliga.

810
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 2: For me, I like Brighton, I talked about it.

811
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 3: This is a team we like to back at big

812
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 3: prices and I know that they have struggled immensely over

813
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 3: their past four matches. They're oh and to four win

814
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,760
Speaker 3: loss with a minus eight gold differentially one goal scored. However,

815
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,919
Speaker 3: there is some positive regression coming from them offensively.

816
00:37:57,719 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 2: And Liverpool right now are.

817
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 3: In so I want to say bad form, but they're

818
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 3: definitely showing some wobble to them and I want to

819
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 3: beat the market to them. They just to that wobble,

820
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 3: I should say it's they just lost to inter Milan

821
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 3: at home one nil in the Champions League. They've been

822
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 3: playing a ton of soccer across a bunch of different

823
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 3: competitions over the past three weeks, so a fatigue Liverpool

824
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 3: is not A fatigue team is not what you want

825
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 3: to go into the Ames with to take on Brighton,

826
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 3: a team that can press you and pass you off

827
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 3: the park. So I'd like a bi Lo spot here

828
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 3: on the Seagulls plus five fifty. They have played very

829
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 3: well against Liverpool so far over the past two years.

830
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 2: They won one win, two draws against the Reds.

831
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 3: So a bogie side if there ever was one for

832
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 3: Jurgen klops men Brighton plus five to fifty on Saturday

833
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 3: morning seven thirty again.

834
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 1: For Reno plus three to ninety at home against inter Milan.

835
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:55,399
Speaker 1: This is a terrific matchup for Torino, especially being at home.

836
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 1: It's a strength versus strength matchup. Enter is number one

837
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 1: in every single offensive metric, but Reno is second in

838
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 1: every single defensive metric, behind only Napoli, and they're also

839
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 1: the number one pressing team. As I mentioned many times

840
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 1: in Italy. Now inter is very good versus pressure, but

841
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 1: they haven't seen They really struggled the last of the

842
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 1: time these two teams met Inner one one nothing at

843
00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 1: the San Siero, but expected goals is only one point three.

844
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:23,879
Speaker 1: Two point six shots were even. To Reno out touched

845
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 1: them in the penalty area, possession was pretty even. Inner's

846
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 1: defense is starting to trend a little bit in the

847
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 1: wrong direction. They're now down to fifth in non penalty

848
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: expected goes allowed, fifth in big scoring chances loud when

849
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 1: near the beginning of the season, when they were in

850
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 1: their dominant form, they were number one in pretty much

851
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 1: every sin single one of these defensive categories. So a

852
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 1: really good spot here for a really underrated to Reno team.

853
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 1: I have then projected around only plus two to fifty.

854
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 1: So at plus three ninety, I think you're getting really

855
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:52,360
Speaker 1: good value on to Reno to upset interer belan Tono,

856
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:53,839
Speaker 1: Brighton and Wolfsburgy.

857
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 3: Partlay those three teams together and it's one hundred and

858
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 3: nine to one.

859
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 2: All right, We'll move on to our two favorite bets.

860
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:02,720
Speaker 3: I like Leeds United minus one and a half plus

861
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 3: one forty three against nord City. Nord City's twentieth in

862
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals per ninety twentieth in shots per

863
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,399
Speaker 3: ninety twentieth in big scoring chances, and eighteenth in box

864
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 3: entries per ninety minutes the season.

865
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 2: How do you beat Leeds United?

866
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 3: You play through their pressure and you take advantage of

867
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 3: their leaky defense, and Nord City is as ill equipped

868
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 3: a team to do that as anybody in the Premier League.

869
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 2: Plus not knowing what they do on Thursday a hand up.

870
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 3: We're recording this before leeds Is match on Thursday. However,

871
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 3: they did show that they had some defensive improvements under

872
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 3: Jesse Marsh in his debut, so I'm gonna go with

873
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 3: Leeds United back that improvement against nord City. They are

874
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 3: the type of team that can score in bunches, so

875
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 3: if they do win, it's likely to come multiple goals.

876
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 3: So I like chasing a minus one and a half

877
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 3: and if you're crazy, maybe minus two and a half

878
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 3: or minus.

879
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 2: Three and a half against nord City. This should be

880
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 2: a blowout. PJ your favorite bet.

881
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace plus one and a half at even money

882
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:03,240
Speaker 1: at home on Monday afternoon against league leaders Manchester City

883
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,240
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace. The home road splits for them are pretty

884
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 1: drastic this season. Their unbelievable team at home fifth in

885
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 1: the Premier League with a plus eight point eight expected

886
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,240
Speaker 1: gold differential. But more importantly, they've been really good against

887
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,280
Speaker 1: the big boys. In four matches against Tottenham, West Ham,

888
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:22,319
Speaker 1: Liverpool and Chelsea Crystal. Palace has a plus two point

889
00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:25,720
Speaker 1: four expected gold differential and they actually handed Manchester City

890
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:28,160
Speaker 1: one of their three losses on the season back at

891
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 1: the they had back in October, Chris Palace won two

892
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 1: to nothing. Manchester did get a red card around the

893
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 1: forty fifth minute, but Palace did hold them to one

894
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 1: point one expected goals and only fourteen shots, which is

895
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: not a lot of teams can say this season. Manchester

896
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 1: City has been in a little bit of weird form

897
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 1: since the start of the new year. They only have

898
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 1: a plus point eighty eight expected gold differential per ninety minutes,

899
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 1: which sounds really good, but if you compare it to

900
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, where they had a plus one point

901
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: eighty three expect gold differential per ninety minutes, their dip

902
00:41:57,680 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 1: in form is actually starting to show on the pitch.

903
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: So I love this spot here for christ Palace, especially

904
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 1: being at home. I have Manchester City spread projecting only

905
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 1: around minus one point one, So I love the Eagles

906
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,800
Speaker 1: plus one and a half and even money.

907
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 3: All right, that wraps up another episode of Wondergirl. We

908
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:16,359
Speaker 3: will see you again on Monday morning with the end

909
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 3: of the du Bundo back in day