WEBVTT - Surveillance: The Improbable Becomes Reality 0:00:00.320 --> 0:00:04.160 Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:07.640 their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune 0:00:07.640 --> 0:00:12.240 of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your 0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:29.040 independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:33.120 I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:38.200 insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:43.199 Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:50.600 of course, on the Bloomberg Good Morning, David Gura with 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:53.560 Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance Wednesday, November the nine, the 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:57.000 day after Election Day, two thousand sixteen. Since the polls 0:00:57.040 --> 0:01:00.000 closed yesterday, we've kept one eye on the popular vote 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:02.440 in the Electoral College, the other eye on the markets. 0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:04.840 Analyst said Donald Trump's path the White House would be 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:07.920 narrow when it looked like he was indeed on that path, 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:10.680 winning Florida, giving Hillary Clinton a run for her money 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:13.639 in Virginia. The sell off began in earnest the Mexican 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:16.840 pay so touching record lows. Overnight doubt futures down more 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:19.759 than seven hundred points from time to time. Around two 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:22.400 am Wall Street time, The announcement came from John Podesta, 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:25.600 Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman, telling her stunned supporters at the 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.520 Jabbt Center they would not hear from the Democratic candidate, 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:32.119 not until every vote is counted. Donald Trump, for his part, 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:34.640 did not wait. He spoke at his election night headquarters 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:37.399 about an hour later, thanked those supporters and made a 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:40.800 constiliatory gesture or two to his opponent and her supporters. 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:44.559 President elect Donald Trump standing next to Vice President elect 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:47.720 Mike Pence and now four hours later, seeing futures down 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:50.200 less dramatically than they were last night, S and P 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:53.880 futures down forty five points dollar pays so at N 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:56.880 twelve and gold which we're keeping an eye on all 0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:00.720 last night at thirteen oh three fifteen. Joining us now 0:02:00.760 --> 0:02:03.920 in studios, Bob Formats, vice chairman of Kisinger and Associate's Bob. 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:05.960 Great to have you here, great to bear Thanks. It's 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:08.360 played out just as you expected. Imagine. This is a 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:12.000 big surprise to me, a big shock. But now we 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:14.519 have a new president elect and we have to figure 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:17.640 out a way of making sure that he succeeds in 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:20.960 dealing with the problems that the country faces and pulling 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:24.440 the country back together. This country. It's not just divided, 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:27.960 it's fractured. And healing this fracture is going to take 0:02:28.000 --> 0:02:31.320 a lot of work across party lines and within parties, 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:35.800 because they're very very strongly held views in both parties 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:38.440 that ultimately, if you're going to get any progress at all, 0:02:38.520 --> 0:02:41.200 you have to compromise on some things. I think there 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:44.959 can be a deal on infrastructure, and I think both 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:50.000 Clinton and Trump focused a lot on small business, and 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:54.560 there are plans in the House Republican bill for lowering 0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:59.280 taxes on small businesses. Uh that could be very helpful 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:06.160 to individual proprietaryships or LLCs or individual companies, small businesses 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:09.280 that now pay the individual income tax. If you lower 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:12.080 taxes on small business, that can be very helpful, and 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:15.040 I think there could be a consensus developed on that. 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:17.400 For instance, among the things that we didn't talk about 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:21.600 in much detail before last night was how Donald Trump 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:24.959 would govern with a Republican Congress, Republican House, and Republican Senate. 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:28.079 It does make things easier here having republic control of 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:31.600 both those houses, yes, it does. On the other hand, 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.200 the rule of the Senators you have to get sixty 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:38.280 votes to get legislation through and therefore having a slight 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:41.360 majority in the Senate doesn't guarantee you're going to get 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:45.320 what you want. In addition, there are divisions between Ryan 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:49.800 and the President elect Trump on a certain issues, so 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:53.520 he's got to work out arrangements with with Ryan and 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:57.120 with others in the House to get the kind of 0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:00.600 things he wants. So he's gonna even though they're all publicans, 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.040 he still has to make deals with the House because 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:05.800 they don't see things eye to eye with him. And 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:08.960 on trade, he has a lot of authority. He's been 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:12.720 delegated over decades, a huge amount of authority, and he 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:16.880 can take action on trade without having to discuss it 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.440 with the House. He may find it prudent to do so, 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:21.240 but he can. He has a lot of authority. And 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:24.160 if he abuses that authority, if he does the kind 0:04:24.200 --> 0:04:26.680 of things he says he's going to do he said 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:29.159 he's going to do in the campaign, you could have 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:33.080 a great many problems. Even if fiscal policy is sound. 0:04:33.400 --> 0:04:35.359 You could have a trade war if he decides to 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:39.279 go after China, impose unilaterally a forty cent tara for 0:04:39.760 --> 0:04:42.880 do the kind of things to abolish NAFTA. And I 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:45.440 think with the markets. More worried about is not so 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:48.560 much his fiscal policy because our checks and balances, and 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:50.360 there are a number of people he has to work 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.880 with to get fiscal policy through. He is almost unlimited 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:58.239 for the moment powers on trade to take tough action, 0:04:58.720 --> 0:05:01.440 and and that could cause huge problems in the market 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:05.000 if he pursues the policies he said he could moderate them, 0:05:05.040 --> 0:05:07.159 and I think there will be people who would argue 0:05:07.560 --> 0:05:11.039 that they should be moderated tougher lines, but not these 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:15.719 kind of policies that would cause a trade war. David Gura. 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:18.840 For me, it was a tell tale moment. Two things happened. 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:23.160 Chris Matthews killed it on MSNBC with an analysis of 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:27.320 the Philadelphia suburbs in particularly Bucks County, and the other 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:30.440 was a loss of your North Carolina. What when for 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:33.080 you in the heat of the coverage last night was 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:35.400 the shift made? It felt like for hours we were 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:38.160 watching Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and I was sitting next 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.320 to Megan Murphy, as you mentioned, and she also was 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.279 looking at Pennsylvania very closely. And the story through the 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:45.239 night when we're looking at Virginia as well, was about 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:48.440 these suburbs about these ex serbs in Virginia. The story 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:51.400 was similar in Pennsylvania as well. We talked about the 0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:54.200 diaconomy there the two Pennsylvania's Barack Obama had a lot 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:57.840 of success bringing in massive votes in and around Philadelphia. 0:05:57.880 --> 0:05:59.839 It appears Hillary Clint did not have the same success. 0:05:59.880 --> 0:06:01.960 I agree, And it's so much a type two. Not 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:04.560 so much what Mr Trump did, but the analysis of 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:08.719 post mortem of how Secretary Clinton perform. Robert Harmetts, you 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:13.400 worked within the Obama administration and most directly with Secretary Clinton. 0:06:13.680 --> 0:06:16.760 How would you suggest she will move on after this 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:20.320 stunning defeat. It's gonna be tough. She is a tough 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:23.080 person though, and she's I think able to deal with 0:06:23.800 --> 0:06:27.560 difficult circumstances, but this one. I think she felt very 0:06:27.560 --> 0:06:30.240 good about running, and I think she felt that she 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:34.080 had a very good chance of winning. But she also 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:37.200 is not going to back off from playing a role 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:40.839 in American politics, even if it's not as president. She 0:06:40.960 --> 0:06:43.880 has a number of strong views about issues, and I 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:46.440 think she will weigh in and I think if the 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:50.640 president's wise, President Elect Trump is wise, he will sit 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.719 down and and talk to her and at least get 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.960 some sense on some of the issues, perhaps issues on 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:00.240 which they agree or could agree. We have to pull 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:03.320 the country together. The fractured country, if it continues to 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:05.920 be fractured from political and a social point of view, 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:08.039 we're not going to get very much done. One way 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:11.280 he could do it is to reach out and UH 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:14.560 talk to her and others in the Democratic Party. One 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:17.120 of the things that was very interesting when Eisenhower won 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:22.840 a very controversial nomination UH in nineteen fifty two, he 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:26.240 ran against Taft. Taft was the one he defeated. On 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:28.840 the floor of the of the of the convention, he 0:07:28.880 --> 0:07:31.280 walked over to Taft and said, look, we've got to 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:33.720 sit down together. I think what Trump is gonna have 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:36.320 to do is be much more inclusive, talk to people 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:38.520 in his own party like Ryan who have a lot 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:41.080 of doubts about some of his policies, but also have 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:44.560 a dialogue with UH senior Democrats in order to get 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:47.320 the country moving together. Not in every area. It's not 0:07:47.360 --> 0:07:49.880 gonna work in every area, but in some areas. Having 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:53.920 a conversation with her and other Democrats is going to 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:56.440 be important. If he wants to be the if he 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:58.080 wants to get things done, and he wants to be 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:00.840 the president, the inclusive president that he mentioned he wanted 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:03.160 to be. Last night, that statement here from the White House. 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:05.200 Just crossing a statement from the Press secretary from the 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:08.000 White House residence, the President phone Donald Trump to congratulate 0:08:08.080 --> 0:08:10.680 him on his victory early this morning. The President also 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:14.080 called Secretary Clinton, expressed admiration for the strong campaign she 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:17.360 waged throughout the country, and that just coming across it 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:20.320 from the White House moments ago. Bob Formats. Donald Trump 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:22.520 on the campaign trail said many times he was a 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.200 candidate capable of change, often in the face of criticism. 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:27.080 He said he would act differently if he were to 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:30.200 become president. Did you see signs of that last night 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:32.160 in the speech that he gave. It wasn't a long speech, 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:34.360 it wasn't a speech marked by sweeping rhetoric, but he 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:38.040 was at points conciliatory. The tone of what he said 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:43.200 last night, however, brief, as you say, was actually very constructive. 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:47.640 And if he continues that tone, that notion of inclusivity, 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:49.959 that he wants to be the president for all the people, 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:54.559 that will be very important who he picks as his advisors, 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:57.760 if he picks people who are pragmatists. That will be 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:00.360 a very important signal that progress is going to be made. 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:03.760 If he picks ideologues, it'll be much more difficult to 0:09:03.800 --> 0:09:06.839 make progress. The President has invited President Elect Trump to 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:08.600 meet him at the White House on Thursday of this 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:10.760 week to update him on the transition planning. His team 0:09:10.760 --> 0:09:12.600 has been working on that for nearly a year as well. 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:14.560 I just want to mention that to Tom Baba Herma, 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:17.040 it's very quickly you are out of Baltimore, Maryland. I 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.400 would suggest that Mr Trump had to support just as 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:23.240 one example of the Baltimore police officers are many of 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:26.800 them as well. He has a constituency which he has 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:29.240 to meet with, and he has to address the people 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:32.480 that voted him in and their needs. How will he 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:37.920 express that in the first critical hundred days he he 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:42.360 does have to deal with his constituency. It's a constituency 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:46.200 that feels marginalized. It feels that the elites have not 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.079 paid attention to them, that that that the people who 0:09:49.080 --> 0:09:51.680 are running the country have really not dealt with their issues. 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:54.199 So he's got to figure out a way of addressing 0:09:54.720 --> 0:09:58.480 some of the grievances that his constituents, the people who 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:01.640 supported in the movement is he calls it feel most 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:05.640 strongly about and that I think requires him to try 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:08.080 to figure out ways of dealing with it. With the 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.840 tax issue. Uh, the tax issue at this point, I 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:13.960 think it is probably not gonna fly through the House, 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:16.280 but he also finds some way of doing Let's come back. 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:19.719 Robert Harmett's with us this morning. David Gura with me 0:10:19.800 --> 0:10:22.080 up until two thirty or three? Did you get any 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.000 sleep at all? In a half hour He's got back 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:29.040 to the hotel about about what I got. John Tucker 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:33.640 has been up for forty eight hours enlivening. Is Governor 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:35.840 Christie caud looking for you to take over as he 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:39.120 goes to Washington. Uh, you know it was all seriousness. 0:10:39.120 --> 0:10:41.439 You gotta wonder it's this, with this mess that's going 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:44.760 on in federal courts in Newark, where does it stop? 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:49.079 And I don't has that has come up with see 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:52.600 that as well. We welcome all of you nationwide, indeed 0:10:52.640 --> 0:10:55.120 around the world. For those of you are on the world. 0:10:55.160 --> 0:10:58.640 This is remarkably American centric this morning, and we're thrilled 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:01.600 to have with us Robert Orman, who has served administrations 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.520 on both sides. I think I almost recently directly with 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:08.959 Secretary Clinton and President Obama State Boba Hormants. I I 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:13.160 guess we defined that we redefine the phrase flyover America 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:15.840 is David was mentioning on the break the map looks 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:20.360 a little different, uh this morning. It is about demographics, 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:23.560 it's about culture, it's about race. It's about a new 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:27.920 America and the establishment. You're a card carrying a member 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:33.400 must adapt. The establishment has to adopt. I think you're 0:11:33.440 --> 0:11:37.200 exactly right. At first. It has to understand what's going 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:40.400 on in Middle America. We in New York, I think 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:44.280 live in a cocoon. Uh, we don't really understand what's 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:48.120 going on in the Midwest and all these states or 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:51.480 on Eleventh Avenue, but continue or eleventh Avenue right or 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:56.400 or or north of ninety s uh we. When I 0:11:56.480 --> 0:11:59.560 was under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, I made 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.160 a point of going to various parts of the country 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:08.800 that had been hit by the downturn, the Great Recession, Gary, Indiana, Hammond, Indiana, 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:12.880 hamm Trammic Michigan, New Orleans, and there it was palpable 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:16.280 that these people felt that they had not benefited from 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.920 the recovery that globalization was a threat that the money 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:24.440 that was spent to restimulate the economy had not helped them. 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:27.920 It had helped Wall Street and big business, it had 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:30.960 not helped them. They weren't getting any money. The financing 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:35.640 wasn't there for them. Globalization was harmful to them, and 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:38.640 new technology was displacing their I know David wants to 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:40.440 get in here. He's got a surveillance bagel in his 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:43.520 mouth right now, which is helping out. Bob Hormet's helped 0:12:43.520 --> 0:12:47.439 me here with your definition of Trump capitalism after what 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:49.920 you've observed for the last two years. Well, I think 0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:54.400 Trump capitalism, essentially, as he has described it, is to 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:58.280 lower taxes not just on lower income people, but upper 0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:03.320 income people, hoping that will stimulate more demand. Uh. That 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:06.280 is probably his his main thing. He also wants to 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:10.560 do certain things that will help small businesses. The House 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:13.440 Ways and Means Committee, Kevin Brady and the and the 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:17.480 and the Speaker have a very thoughtful plan to lower 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:21.640 taxes for small businesses so that so called passed through 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.760 income will be taxed at fift and not the thirty 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:28.800 nine point six individual tax rate. I think there are 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:33.199 things that can be done that will pull Democrats and 0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:36.440 Republicans together. Everyone knows you need to do things to 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.440 help small business. This at least is one area. There's 0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:41.200 also gonna be a lot of focus on how do 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:44.800 you repatriate the two trillion or so dollars that are 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:49.040 held abroad. Their numerous plans being developed again in the 0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:52.840 so called House Republican blueprint that can be utilized for this. 0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:55.240 I think there's gonna be a lot of discussion of 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:58.640 these kinds of things, whether they're in Trump's program or 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:02.080 they're in the House Republican programmers. And the program there 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:05.720 is where I think you can get some degree of 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:09.320 of harmony amongst the various parties interests. The burden of 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:12.160 expectations here is is heavy. Donald Trump is able to 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:14.640 travel to western Pennsylvania and and talk to folks who 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:16.600 have been out of work, say he's going to change things, 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:19.160 say cold is coming back, for instance, that talked about 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:21.880 the carrier conditioners, that companies sending jobs overseas, Ford sending 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:24.080 jobs everse easier said than done, though, And these are 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:27.160 people who are angry who are expecting him to do something. Yes, 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:30.360 expectations are very high because the main theme of his 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:35.520 campaign was that people in Washington weren't listening to Middle America, 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:39.280 to these people who feel disenfranchised, who feel the pain 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:44.080 of of the downturn and haven't really recovered from it, 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:48.440 so their expectations are very high. Finding answers to these 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:52.640 problems not so easy, because you can bring manufacturing back, 0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:57.200 but with new technology. The kind of manufacturing that is 0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:00.600 going to come back may produce more goods, but probably 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:03.920 we'll produce them with fewer people because of newer technologies. 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:08.680 So the changes really are more driven by technology, uh 0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:12.360 than by trade competition. Trade competition can display some jobs, 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:16.480 but technology displaces a lot of jobs and doesn't create 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:20.000 as many new jobs for the future as we had anticipated. 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:22.840 Bob Hormets, thank you so much for coming in this morning. 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:25.520 You had eight reasons to cancel. So much going on today, 0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:29.920 but I greatly appreciate Ambassador Hormets. Uh. Look for is 0:15:29.960 --> 0:15:32.200 there a book coming out? Do we do? We? I 0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:34.480 haven't had time, but I'd like to write one. Since 0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:36.560 you and I collaborate on our last book, we ought 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:40.880 to try another one two. But I do think we 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:43.560 have to look ahead and think ahead, and and and plan. 0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:46.720 We've been very tactical as a country, and our governments 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:49.360 have been very tactical looking at the short term. We 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.800 need a long term strategy for creating growth and opportunity. 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:56.080 I can't just react to events of the day. Bob Horts, 0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:59.160 thank you so much. David Grein, Toime Key Bloomberg, throwed 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:15.440 you where this David Gerr and Tom Keene. We're picking 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:18.760 up the debris after an historic day for America, a 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:23.200 nation and a world in shock over our political moment. 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:25.520 We are honored to bring you now someone who was 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:30.880 in sharp support and strong support for Mr Trump. Uh 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:34.360 Tom Barrick, who has been more than visible with Colony 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:37.720 capital Um. What you need to know, folks, that he's 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:41.280 does own the coolest bar in the world, raffles over 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:44.160 in Singapore, and that is a good and beautiful thing. 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:45.640 If you and I already have a beverage of our 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:51.400 choice Singapore, Yeah, in Singapore today, Tom, I would point 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.360 out your grandparents came over from Lebanon. How does your 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:59.120 president elect speak to immigrants in America and the people 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:02.040 that want to come? And I think it's simple. I 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:08.000 think it's a message of hope, opportunity and renewal. And 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:12.200 I think what you saw last night was a blowout 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.840 of of that immigrant mentality, right, of the beauty of 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:19.840 America being a place where if you have a desire, 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:23.160 if you have the opportunity, if you have the hard work, 0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:25.480 you can do it. And we've lost that over the 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:29.240 last decade or so. So I think I'm a great 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:31.919 example of my grandparents. My parents coming over in the 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:35.679 in the in the cargo whole of a ship, with nothing, 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:39.119 and due to the beauty of the American system, had 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:41.520 an opportunity to make a living in a life way 0:17:41.560 --> 0:17:44.360 beyond their dreams for the kids. Can we get legislation 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:50.200 through that? It's Republican president, Republican House, Republican Senate. Is 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.800 it a republican California? I don't even know. Can we 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:57.520 get legislation finally done on immigration? I think absolutely so 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:02.040 the Vice president. Hence, when you think of the opportunity today, 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:05.080 it's immense you have Trump leadership, and I think you're 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:07.520 going to see the cadence of the man now as 0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:10.639 president much different than the cadence of the man as candidate. 0:18:11.280 --> 0:18:15.439 The markets will will calm, the waters will will quiet, 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.479 and Vice President Pence will have a role that probably 0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:23.520 no Vice President has had in leading and mentoring through 0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:26.920 that congressional lab Did Tom Barrick wake up this morning 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:29.080 and look at the real estate listings in Washington, DC? 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:31.120 Are you are you going to be headed to Washington? 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:33.000 We're very curious here sort of what kind of team 0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:35.760 Donald Trump would assemble just broadly speaking here, whom does 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:37.720 he hire? Yeah, I mean that's that's right question, right, 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:39.919 because if you look at President Reagan, a lot of 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:42.200 the same questions. Right. He was an actor, He was 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:44.320 from California, which was a horrible thing. He went to 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:46.560 Eureka College, which nobody had heard of. He had no 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.520 foreign policy experience, and he was divorced. What did he do? 0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:52.720 He surrounded himself with the best of class cabinet, so 0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:55.880 he had George schultzkap Winburger, Richard Allen. I think you're 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.720 gonna see that now happen. He Trump has a great 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.840 transition team. But if if you think of who the 0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:05.560 availability those candidates were until yesterday, it was more limited 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:09.520 because people who would consider it weren't taking it that seriously. 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:13.480 So just in the last twelve hours on my iPhone alone, 0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:16.639 the quality of the candidates who now want to be 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:20.240 considered is dramatic. So I think you're going to see 0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:24.320 great choices of people who understand the system, who have 0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:27.719 used the system, but are not of the system, so 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:31.960 that you can affect that gigantic aircraft carrier of bureaucracy 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:35.960 and tiny degrees, not in jolts, but in tiny degrees. 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:38.760 You're a successful businessman. You've heard Donald Trump talk about 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:42.080 say that the Federal Reserve in political terms, terms that 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:45.240 he's been criticized for. For those in business who are 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:48.240 worried about remarks like that that they might see as flippant, 0:19:48.320 --> 0:19:50.119 Can you offer some assurance here that he is going 0:19:50.160 --> 0:19:52.920 to move forward in a very measured way. Yes, I mean, 0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:55.320 I think what he was doing before I analogize it 0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:59.760 to the uf the UFC cage he was in political battle. 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:04.639 He's using every known martial arts and slugfest tactic that 0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:08.080 he can. Now he's president United States. Every word that 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:13.040 he says reflects global terror, fear, or confidence, and I 0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:16.800 think you'll see him be much more judicious about what 0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:20.040 his statements are. Help me with the Republican Party, for 0:20:20.040 --> 0:20:22.880 for you grew up in the collegial love fest known 0:20:22.880 --> 0:20:26.080 as Southern California, Republican What a mess that used to 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:29.159 be back and forth? You work with Mr Komback and 0:20:30.160 --> 0:20:34.880 the personal attorney to President Nixon. How do you perceive 0:20:35.000 --> 0:20:40.000 the new Republican Party with a different demographic in America? 0:20:40.200 --> 0:20:43.720 Where do the next Republicans come from? Yeah? We we 0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:46.280 we don't have a deep bench. And I think what 0:20:46.280 --> 0:20:49.600 we've seen in both parties is a redefinition of everything 0:20:50.440 --> 0:20:54.720 of the parties, of the way we analyze um social 0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:59.640 agendas and and monetary agendas and fiscal agendas. And when 0:20:59.640 --> 0:21:03.320 when you look at the polling and the exit polling 0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:05.800 of what happened, what we realize is we have no 0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:08.359 tools anymore. Right, the tools were totally useless, and I 0:21:08.440 --> 0:21:11.240 think I think they're equally use useless. In both parties. 0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:15.040 You find people are tired of rhetoric. They want action. 0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:18.560 A lot of people are very liberal on social issues 0:21:18.560 --> 0:21:22.040 in the Republican Party and very conservative on fiscal issues, 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:24.200 but they don't know what it means. You you own 0:21:24.200 --> 0:21:28.320 the earthquake free part of Santa Barbara because there's only 0:21:28.320 --> 0:21:30.680 two acres of it. I didn't hear anything on Green 0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:34.720 America climate change. What what's the strategy here for something 0:21:34.760 --> 0:21:37.800 dear to the heart of every California. What is President 0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:42.480 Trump going to do on these huge issues of climate change? 0:21:42.720 --> 0:21:45.719 I think I think it'll evolve and and you know, 0:21:45.760 --> 0:21:49.360 the priorities of the first hundred days, of course, are 0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:51.320 a little bit like when you're in an airplane and 0:21:51.359 --> 0:21:54.639 you're losing altitude. The first thing the captain says is 0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:57.119 take the oxygen mask and put it on. We do 0:21:57.200 --> 0:22:01.080 that every morning to get out of it. By the way, 0:22:01.119 --> 0:22:02.560 I love it. I love it here. You guys have 0:22:02.680 --> 0:22:07.800 a very cool place. But he doesn't says, He doesn't say, 0:22:07.840 --> 0:22:09.959 take the mask and put it on your four friends, 0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:11.800 and then go across the island put it on three 0:22:11.840 --> 0:22:13.640 other people. And I think that's what you're gonna see 0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:18.639 is those priorities are priorities of an entitled society that 0:22:18.800 --> 0:22:21.879 needs that focus. But right now we need other focus 0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:24.760 on our monetary policies. Wanning, you're gonna see fiscal policy 0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:27.800 be instilled. You need a new task code, you need 0:22:27.440 --> 0:22:31.239 you need a new health program, you need schooling. Our 0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:33.359 foreign policy has got to be restabilized. You have an 0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:38.119 opportunity for a man like Trump with a elegant foreign 0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:41.960