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Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and
Speaker 1: of course, on the Bloomberg Good Morning, David Gura with
Speaker 1: Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance Wednesday, November the nine, the
Speaker 1: day after Election Day, two thousand sixteen. Since the polls
Speaker 1: closed yesterday, we've kept one eye on the popular vote
Speaker 1: in the Electoral College, the other eye on the markets.
Speaker 1: Analyst said Donald Trump's path the White House would be
Speaker 1: narrow when it looked like he was indeed on that path,
Speaker 1: winning Florida, giving Hillary Clinton a run for her money
Speaker 1: in Virginia. The sell off began in earnest the Mexican
Speaker 1: pay so touching record lows. Overnight doubt futures down more
Speaker 1: than seven hundred points from time to time. Around two
Speaker 1: am Wall Street time, The announcement came from John Podesta,
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman, telling her stunned supporters at the
Speaker 1: Jabbt Center they would not hear from the Democratic candidate,
Speaker 1: not until every vote is counted. Donald Trump, for his part,
Speaker 1: did not wait. He spoke at his election night headquarters
Speaker 1: about an hour later, thanked those supporters and made a
Speaker 1: constiliatory gesture or two to his opponent and her supporters.
Speaker 1: President elect Donald Trump standing next to Vice President elect
Speaker 1: Mike Pence and now four hours later, seeing futures down
Speaker 1: less dramatically than they were last night, S and P
Speaker 1: futures down forty five points dollar pays so at N
Speaker 1: twelve and gold which we're keeping an eye on all
Speaker 1: last night at thirteen oh three fifteen. Joining us now
Speaker 1: in studios, Bob Formats, vice chairman of Kisinger and Associate's Bob.
Speaker 1: Great to have you here, great to bear Thanks. It's
Speaker 1: played out just as you expected. Imagine. This is a
Speaker 1: big surprise to me, a big shock. But now we
Speaker 1: have a new president elect and we have to figure
Speaker 1: out a way of making sure that he succeeds in
Speaker 1: dealing with the problems that the country faces and pulling
Speaker 1: the country back together. This country. It's not just divided,
Speaker 1: it's fractured. And healing this fracture is going to take
Speaker 1: a lot of work across party lines and within parties,
Speaker 1: because they're very very strongly held views in both parties
Speaker 1: that ultimately, if you're going to get any progress at all,
Speaker 1: you have to compromise on some things. I think there
Speaker 1: can be a deal on infrastructure, and I think both
Speaker 1: Clinton and Trump focused a lot on small business, and
Speaker 1: there are plans in the House Republican bill for lowering
Speaker 1: taxes on small businesses. Uh that could be very helpful
Speaker 1: to individual proprietaryships or LLCs or individual companies, small businesses
Speaker 1: that now pay the individual income tax. If you lower
Speaker 1: taxes on small business, that can be very helpful, and
Speaker 1: I think there could be a consensus developed on that.
Speaker 1: For instance, among the things that we didn't talk about
Speaker 1: in much detail before last night was how Donald Trump
Speaker 1: would govern with a Republican Congress, Republican House, and Republican Senate.
Speaker 1: It does make things easier here having republic control of
Speaker 1: both those houses, yes, it does. On the other hand,
Speaker 1: the rule of the Senators you have to get sixty
Speaker 1: votes to get legislation through and therefore having a slight
Speaker 1: majority in the Senate doesn't guarantee you're going to get
Speaker 1: what you want. In addition, there are divisions between Ryan
Speaker 1: and the President elect Trump on a certain issues, so
Speaker 1: he's got to work out arrangements with with Ryan and
Speaker 1: with others in the House to get the kind of
Speaker 1: things he wants. So he's gonna even though they're all publicans,
Speaker 1: he still has to make deals with the House because
Speaker 1: they don't see things eye to eye with him. And
Speaker 1: on trade, he has a lot of authority. He's been
Speaker 1: delegated over decades, a huge amount of authority, and he
Speaker 1: can take action on trade without having to discuss it
Speaker 1: with the House. He may find it prudent to do so,
Speaker 1: but he can. He has a lot of authority. And
Speaker 1: if he abuses that authority, if he does the kind
Speaker 1: of things he says he's going to do he said
Speaker 1: he's going to do in the campaign, you could have
Speaker 1: a great many problems. Even if fiscal policy is sound.
Speaker 1: You could have a trade war if he decides to
Speaker 1: go after China, impose unilaterally a forty cent tara for
Speaker 1: do the kind of things to abolish NAFTA. And I
Speaker 1: think with the markets. More worried about is not so
Speaker 1: much his fiscal policy because our checks and balances, and
Speaker 1: there are a number of people he has to work
Speaker 1: with to get fiscal policy through. He is almost unlimited
Speaker 1: for the moment powers on trade to take tough action,
Speaker 1: and and that could cause huge problems in the market
Speaker 1: if he pursues the policies he said he could moderate them,
Speaker 1: and I think there will be people who would argue
Speaker 1: that they should be moderated tougher lines, but not these
Speaker 1: kind of policies that would cause a trade war. David Gura.
Speaker 1: For me, it was a tell tale moment. Two things happened.
Speaker 1: Chris Matthews killed it on MSNBC with an analysis of
Speaker 1: the Philadelphia suburbs in particularly Bucks County, and the other
Speaker 1: was a loss of your North Carolina. What when for
Speaker 1: you in the heat of the coverage last night was
Speaker 1: the shift made? It felt like for hours we were
Speaker 1: watching Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and I was sitting next
Speaker 1: to Megan Murphy, as you mentioned, and she also was
Speaker 1: looking at Pennsylvania very closely. And the story through the
Speaker 1: night when we're looking at Virginia as well, was about
Speaker 1: these suburbs about these ex serbs in Virginia. The story
Speaker 1: was similar in Pennsylvania as well. We talked about the
Speaker 1: diaconomy there the two Pennsylvania's Barack Obama had a lot
Speaker 1: of success bringing in massive votes in and around Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: It appears Hillary Clint did not have the same success.
Speaker 1: I agree, And it's so much a type two. Not
Speaker 1: so much what Mr Trump did, but the analysis of
Speaker 1: post mortem of how Secretary Clinton perform. Robert Harmetts, you
Speaker 1: worked within the Obama administration and most directly with Secretary Clinton.
Speaker 1: How would you suggest she will move on after this
Speaker 1: stunning defeat. It's gonna be tough. She is a tough
Speaker 1: person though, and she's I think able to deal with
Speaker 1: difficult circumstances, but this one. I think she felt very
Speaker 1: good about running, and I think she felt that she
Speaker 1: had a very good chance of winning. But she also
Speaker 1: is not going to back off from playing a role
Speaker 1: in American politics, even if it's not as president. She
Speaker 1: has a number of strong views about issues, and I
Speaker 1: think she will weigh in and I think if the
Speaker 1: president's wise, President Elect Trump is wise, he will sit
Speaker 1: down and and talk to her and at least get
Speaker 1: some sense on some of the issues, perhaps issues on
Speaker 1: which they agree or could agree. We have to pull
Speaker 1: the country together. The fractured country, if it continues to
Speaker 1: be fractured from political and a social point of view,
Speaker 1: we're not going to get very much done. One way
Speaker 1: he could do it is to reach out and UH
Speaker 1: talk to her and others in the Democratic Party. One
Speaker 1: of the things that was very interesting when Eisenhower won
Speaker 1: a very controversial nomination UH in nineteen fifty two, he
Speaker 1: ran against Taft. Taft was the one he defeated. On
Speaker 1: the floor of the of the of the convention, he
Speaker 1: walked over to Taft and said, look, we've got to
Speaker 1: sit down together. I think what Trump is gonna have
Speaker 1: to do is be much more inclusive, talk to people
Speaker 1: in his own party like Ryan who have a lot
Speaker 1: of doubts about some of his policies, but also have
Speaker 1: a dialogue with UH senior Democrats in order to get
Speaker 1: the country moving together. Not in every area. It's not
Speaker 1: gonna work in every area, but in some areas. Having
Speaker 1: a conversation with her and other Democrats is going to
Speaker 1: be important. If he wants to be the if he
Speaker 1: wants to get things done, and he wants to be
Speaker 1: the president, the inclusive president that he mentioned he wanted
Speaker 1: to be. Last night, that statement here from the White House.
Speaker 1: Just crossing a statement from the Press secretary from the
Speaker 1: White House residence, the President phone Donald Trump to congratulate
Speaker 1: him on his victory early this morning. The President also
Speaker 1: called Secretary Clinton, expressed admiration for the strong campaign she
Speaker 1: waged throughout the country, and that just coming across it
Speaker 1: from the White House moments ago. Bob Formats. Donald Trump
Speaker 1: on the campaign trail said many times he was a
Speaker 1: candidate capable of change, often in the face of criticism.
Speaker 1: He said he would act differently if he were to
Speaker 1: become president. Did you see signs of that last night
Speaker 1: in the speech that he gave. It wasn't a long speech,
Speaker 1: it wasn't a speech marked by sweeping rhetoric, but he
Speaker 1: was at points conciliatory. The tone of what he said
Speaker 1: last night, however, brief, as you say, was actually very constructive.
Speaker 1: And if he continues that tone, that notion of inclusivity,
Speaker 1: that he wants to be the president for all the people,
Speaker 1: that will be very important who he picks as his advisors,
Speaker 1: if he picks people who are pragmatists. That will be
Speaker 1: a very important signal that progress is going to be made.
Speaker 1: If he picks ideologues, it'll be much more difficult to
Speaker 1: make progress. The President has invited President Elect Trump to
Speaker 1: meet him at the White House on Thursday of this
Speaker 1: week to update him on the transition planning. His team
Speaker 1: has been working on that for nearly a year as well.
Speaker 1: I just want to mention that to Tom Baba Herma,
Speaker 1: it's very quickly you are out of Baltimore, Maryland. I
Speaker 1: would suggest that Mr Trump had to support just as
Speaker 1: one example of the Baltimore police officers are many of
Speaker 1: them as well. He has a constituency which he has
Speaker 1: to meet with, and he has to address the people
Speaker 1: that voted him in and their needs. How will he
Speaker 1: express that in the first critical hundred days he he
Speaker 1: does have to deal with his constituency. It's a constituency
Speaker 1: that feels marginalized. It feels that the elites have not
Speaker 1: paid attention to them, that that that the people who
Speaker 1: are running the country have really not dealt with their issues.
Speaker 1: So he's got to figure out a way of addressing
Speaker 1: some of the grievances that his constituents, the people who
Speaker 1: supported in the movement is he calls it feel most
Speaker 1: strongly about and that I think requires him to try
Speaker 1: to figure out ways of dealing with it. With the
Speaker 1: tax issue. Uh, the tax issue at this point, I
Speaker 1: think it is probably not gonna fly through the House,
Speaker 1: but he also finds some way of doing Let's come back.
Speaker 1: Robert Harmett's with us this morning. David Gura with me
Speaker 1: up until two thirty or three? Did you get any
Speaker 1: sleep at all? In a half hour He's got back
Speaker 1: to the hotel about about what I got. John Tucker
Speaker 1: has been up for forty eight hours enlivening. Is Governor
Speaker 1: Christie caud looking for you to take over as he
Speaker 1: goes to Washington. Uh, you know it was all seriousness.
Speaker 1: You gotta wonder it's this, with this mess that's going
Speaker 1: on in federal courts in Newark, where does it stop?
Speaker 1: And I don't has that has come up with see
Speaker 1: that as well. We welcome all of you nationwide, indeed
Speaker 1: around the world. For those of you are on the world.
Speaker 1: This is remarkably American centric this morning, and we're thrilled
Speaker 1: to have with us Robert Orman, who has served administrations
Speaker 1: on both sides. I think I almost recently directly with
Speaker 1: Secretary Clinton and President Obama State Boba Hormants. I I
Speaker 1: guess we defined that we redefine the phrase flyover America
Speaker 1: is David was mentioning on the break the map looks
Speaker 1: a little different, uh this morning. It is about demographics,
Speaker 1: it's about culture, it's about race. It's about a new
Speaker 1: America and the establishment. You're a card carrying a member
Speaker 1: must adapt. The establishment has to adopt. I think you're
Speaker 1: exactly right. At first. It has to understand what's going
Speaker 1: on in Middle America. We in New York, I think
Speaker 1: live in a cocoon. Uh, we don't really understand what's
Speaker 1: going on in the Midwest and all these states or
Speaker 1: on Eleventh Avenue, but continue or eleventh Avenue right or
Speaker 1: or or north of ninety s uh we. When I
Speaker 1: was under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, I made
Speaker 1: a point of going to various parts of the country
Speaker 1: that had been hit by the downturn, the Great Recession, Gary, Indiana, Hammond, Indiana,
Speaker 1: hamm Trammic Michigan, New Orleans, and there it was palpable
Speaker 1: that these people felt that they had not benefited from
Speaker 1: the recovery that globalization was a threat that the money
Speaker 1: that was spent to restimulate the economy had not helped them.
Speaker 1: It had helped Wall Street and big business, it had
Speaker 1: not helped them. They weren't getting any money. The financing
Speaker 1: wasn't there for them. Globalization was harmful to them, and
Speaker 1: new technology was displacing their I know David wants to
Speaker 1: get in here. He's got a surveillance bagel in his
Speaker 1: mouth right now, which is helping out. Bob Hormet's helped
Speaker 1: me here with your definition of Trump capitalism after what
Speaker 1: you've observed for the last two years. Well, I think
Speaker 1: Trump capitalism, essentially, as he has described it, is to
Speaker 1: lower taxes not just on lower income people, but upper
Speaker 1: income people, hoping that will stimulate more demand. Uh. That
Speaker 1: is probably his his main thing. He also wants to
Speaker 1: do certain things that will help small businesses. The House
Speaker 1: Ways and Means Committee, Kevin Brady and the and the
Speaker 1: and the Speaker have a very thoughtful plan to lower
Speaker 1: taxes for small businesses so that so called passed through
Speaker 1: income will be taxed at fift and not the thirty
Speaker 1: nine point six individual tax rate. I think there are
Speaker 1: things that can be done that will pull Democrats and
Speaker 1: Republicans together. Everyone knows you need to do things to
Speaker 1: help small business. This at least is one area. There's
Speaker 1: also gonna be a lot of focus on how do
Speaker 1: you repatriate the two trillion or so dollars that are
Speaker 1: held abroad. Their numerous plans being developed again in the
Speaker 1: so called House Republican blueprint that can be utilized for this.
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be a lot of discussion of
Speaker 1: these kinds of things, whether they're in Trump's program or
Speaker 1: they're in the House Republican programmers. And the program there
Speaker 1: is where I think you can get some degree of
Speaker 1: of harmony amongst the various parties interests. The burden of
Speaker 1: expectations here is is heavy. Donald Trump is able to
Speaker 1: travel to western Pennsylvania and and talk to folks who
Speaker 1: have been out of work, say he's going to change things,
Speaker 1: say cold is coming back, for instance, that talked about
Speaker 1: the carrier conditioners, that companies sending jobs overseas, Ford sending
Speaker 1: jobs everse easier said than done, though, And these are
Speaker 1: people who are angry who are expecting him to do something. Yes,
Speaker 1: expectations are very high because the main theme of his
Speaker 1: campaign was that people in Washington weren't listening to Middle America,
Speaker 1: to these people who feel disenfranchised, who feel the pain
Speaker 1: of of the downturn and haven't really recovered from it,
Speaker 1: so their expectations are very high. Finding answers to these
Speaker 1: problems not so easy, because you can bring manufacturing back,
Speaker 1: but with new technology. The kind of manufacturing that is
Speaker 1: going to come back may produce more goods, but probably
Speaker 1: we'll produce them with fewer people because of newer technologies.
Speaker 1: So the changes really are more driven by technology, uh
Speaker 1: than by trade competition. Trade competition can display some jobs,
Speaker 1: but technology displaces a lot of jobs and doesn't create
Speaker 1: as many new jobs for the future as we had anticipated.
Speaker 1: Bob Hormets, thank you so much for coming in this morning.
Speaker 1: You had eight reasons to cancel. So much going on today,
Speaker 1: but I greatly appreciate Ambassador Hormets. Uh. Look for is
Speaker 1: there a book coming out? Do we do? We? I
Speaker 1: haven't had time, but I'd like to write one. Since
Speaker 1: you and I collaborate on our last book, we ought
Speaker 1: to try another one two. But I do think we
Speaker 1: have to look ahead and think ahead, and and and plan.
Speaker 1: We've been very tactical as a country, and our governments
Speaker 1: have been very tactical looking at the short term. We
Speaker 1: need a long term strategy for creating growth and opportunity.
Speaker 1: I can't just react to events of the day. Bob Horts,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. David Grein, Toime Key Bloomberg, throwed
Speaker 1: you where this David Gerr and Tom Keene. We're picking
Speaker 1: up the debris after an historic day for America, a
Speaker 1: nation and a world in shock over our political moment.
Speaker 1: We are honored to bring you now someone who was
Speaker 1: in sharp support and strong support for Mr Trump. Uh
Speaker 1: Tom Barrick, who has been more than visible with Colony
Speaker 1: capital Um. What you need to know, folks, that he's
Speaker 1: does own the coolest bar in the world, raffles over
Speaker 1: in Singapore, and that is a good and beautiful thing.
Speaker 1: If you and I already have a beverage of our
Speaker 1: choice Singapore, Yeah, in Singapore today, Tom, I would point
Speaker 1: out your grandparents came over from Lebanon. How does your
Speaker 1: president elect speak to immigrants in America and the people
Speaker 1: that want to come? And I think it's simple. I
Speaker 1: think it's a message of hope, opportunity and renewal. And
Speaker 1: I think what you saw last night was a blowout
Speaker 1: of of that immigrant mentality, right, of the beauty of
Speaker 1: America being a place where if you have a desire,
Speaker 1: if you have the opportunity, if you have the hard work,
Speaker 1: you can do it. And we've lost that over the
Speaker 1: last decade or so. So I think I'm a great
Speaker 1: example of my grandparents. My parents coming over in the
Speaker 1: in the in the cargo whole of a ship, with nothing,
Speaker 1: and due to the beauty of the American system, had
Speaker 1: an opportunity to make a living in a life way
Speaker 1: beyond their dreams for the kids. Can we get legislation
Speaker 1: through that? It's Republican president, Republican House, Republican Senate. Is
Speaker 1: it a republican California? I don't even know. Can we
Speaker 1: get legislation finally done on immigration? I think absolutely so
Speaker 1: the Vice president. Hence, when you think of the opportunity today,
Speaker 1: it's immense you have Trump leadership, and I think you're
Speaker 1: going to see the cadence of the man now as
Speaker 1: president much different than the cadence of the man as candidate.
Speaker 1: The markets will will calm, the waters will will quiet,
Speaker 1: and Vice President Pence will have a role that probably
Speaker 1: no Vice President has had in leading and mentoring through
Speaker 1: that congressional lab Did Tom Barrick wake up this morning
Speaker 1: and look at the real estate listings in Washington, DC?
Speaker 1: Are you are you going to be headed to Washington?
Speaker 1: We're very curious here sort of what kind of team
Speaker 1: Donald Trump would assemble just broadly speaking here, whom does
Speaker 1: he hire? Yeah, I mean that's that's right question, right,
Speaker 1: because if you look at President Reagan, a lot of
Speaker 1: the same questions. Right. He was an actor, He was
Speaker 1: from California, which was a horrible thing. He went to
Speaker 1: Eureka College, which nobody had heard of. He had no
Speaker 1: foreign policy experience, and he was divorced. What did he do?
Speaker 1: He surrounded himself with the best of class cabinet, so
Speaker 1: he had George schultzkap Winburger, Richard Allen. I think you're
Speaker 1: gonna see that now happen. He Trump has a great
Speaker 1: transition team. But if if you think of who the
Speaker 1: availability those candidates were until yesterday, it was more limited
Speaker 1: because people who would consider it weren't taking it that seriously.
Speaker 1: So just in the last twelve hours on my iPhone alone,
Speaker 1: the quality of the candidates who now want to be
Speaker 1: considered is dramatic. So I think you're going to see
Speaker 1: great choices of people who understand the system, who have
Speaker 1: used the system, but are not of the system, so
Speaker 1: that you can affect that gigantic aircraft carrier of bureaucracy
Speaker 1: and tiny degrees, not in jolts, but in tiny degrees.
Speaker 1: You're a successful businessman. You've heard Donald Trump talk about
Speaker 1: say that the Federal Reserve in political terms, terms that
Speaker 1: he's been criticized for. For those in business who are
Speaker 1: worried about remarks like that that they might see as flippant,
Speaker 1: Can you offer some assurance here that he is going
Speaker 1: to move forward in a very measured way. Yes, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think what he was doing before I analogize it
Speaker 1: to the uf the UFC cage he was in political battle.
Speaker 1: He's using every known martial arts and slugfest tactic that
Speaker 1: he can. Now he's president United States. Every word that
Speaker 1: he says reflects global terror, fear, or confidence, and I
Speaker 1: think you'll see him be much more judicious about what
Speaker 1: his statements are. Help me with the Republican Party, for
Speaker 1: for you grew up in the collegial love fest known
Speaker 1: as Southern California, Republican What a mess that used to
Speaker 1: be back and forth? You work with Mr Komback and
Speaker 1: the personal attorney to President Nixon. How do you perceive
Speaker 1: the new Republican Party with a different demographic in America?
Speaker 1: Where do the next Republicans come from? Yeah? We we
Speaker 1: we don't have a deep bench. And I think what
Speaker 1: we've seen in both parties is a redefinition of everything
Speaker 1: of the parties, of the way we analyze um social
Speaker 1: agendas and and monetary agendas and fiscal agendas. And when
Speaker 1: when you look at the polling and the exit polling
Speaker 1: of what happened, what we realize is we have no
Speaker 1: tools anymore. Right, the tools were totally useless, and I
Speaker 1: think I think they're equally use useless. In both parties.
Speaker 1: You find people are tired of rhetoric. They want action.
Speaker 1: A lot of people are very liberal on social issues
Speaker 1: in the Republican Party and very conservative on fiscal issues,
Speaker 1: but they don't know what it means. You you own
Speaker 1: the earthquake free part of Santa Barbara because there's only
Speaker 1: two acres of it. I didn't hear anything on Green
Speaker 1: America climate change. What what's the strategy here for something
Speaker 1: dear to the heart of every California. What is President
Speaker 1: Trump going to do on these huge issues of climate change?
Speaker 1: I think I think it'll evolve and and you know,
Speaker 1: the priorities of the first hundred days, of course, are
Speaker 1: a little bit like when you're in an airplane and
Speaker 1: you're losing altitude. The first thing the captain says is
Speaker 1: take the oxygen mask and put it on. We do
Speaker 1: that every morning to get out of it. By the way,
Speaker 1: I love it. I love it here. You guys have
Speaker 1: a very cool place. But he doesn't says, He doesn't say,
Speaker 1: take the mask and put it on your four friends,
Speaker 1: and then go across the island put it on three
Speaker 1: other people. And I think that's what you're gonna see
Speaker 1: is those priorities are priorities of an entitled society that
Speaker 1: needs that focus. But right now we need other focus
Speaker 1: on our monetary policies. Wanning, you're gonna see fiscal policy
Speaker 1: be instilled. You need a new task code, you need
Speaker 1: you need a new health program, you need schooling. Our
Speaker 1: foreign policy has got to be restabilized. You have an
Speaker 1: opportunity for a man like Trump with a elegant foreign
Speaker 1: service bureaucracy to change the fabric of how we deal
Speaker 1: with the Middle East, of how we deal with China,
Speaker 1: of how we deal with Russia. It's an opportunity and
Speaker 1: it's going to take a very sophisticated team in order
Speaker 1: to implement all of that at one time. You've watched
Speaker 1: your your friend Donald Trump go through this here over
Speaker 1: the last many months, and we have seen a lot
Speaker 1: written about Jared Kushner, his his in law, as somebody
Speaker 1: who was playing a very active role in the campaign
Speaker 1: going forward, What kind of role do you see him
Speaker 1: playing in administration? Significant? I mean, Jared is exceptional, as
Speaker 1: is Ivanka and Donald's other kids. But Jared has a
Speaker 1: a very refined mind, a very soft and consensual approach,
Speaker 1: and most importantly, Donald trust, which for this president is
Speaker 1: critically important. So I think Jared as an advisors, a confidante.
Speaker 1: You'd have to ask Donald what what position other than that?
Speaker 1: But for a young man, he has an old soul
Speaker 1: and a very sophisticated mind. I assume you were at
Speaker 1: the Hilton last night for for all the goings on
Speaker 1: after the polls closed, there was a moment when Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: Beck and Rhyn's previous up to the stage gave him
Speaker 1: a big hug. President Elect Donald Trump gave him a
Speaker 1: big hug and thanked him for it. The symbolism was
Speaker 1: not lost on me there. This has spented times an
Speaker 1: uneasy relationship with the Republican Party officials. What's the importance
Speaker 1: of party allegiance in light of the campaign that we've
Speaker 1: seen here? Uh? Do people have as much allegiance to
Speaker 1: their parties to be the Republican and Democrat going forward?
Speaker 1: I think the truth Lanzers know and and I think
Speaker 1: what happened in that alignment was um was a forced marriage.
Speaker 1: And what you saw and Donald bring him up to
Speaker 1: the stage was we did it you. You may have
Speaker 1: questioned me getting us here, but I got us here.
Speaker 1: And I think he is he You know what what
Speaker 1: a capable head of a It's a hopeless tasking head
Speaker 1: of the Republican Party under those circumstances when you have
Speaker 1: a candidate that the party didn't even want in the
Speaker 1: first place. Now, the man is exceptionally capable. He'd be
Speaker 1: a great chief of staff. He could he could roll
Speaker 1: over into and other pieces. But I think exactly as
Speaker 1: you as you said, the definition of what is the party?
Speaker 1: What is the purpose and do people really vote that
Speaker 1: way anymore? I think it's a different game. Could you
Speaker 1: bring rugby to America? I hope then? Then then at
Speaker 1: least I could get something. Did you watch All Blacks
Speaker 1: in Ireland the other day? Unbelievable. I don't know much
Speaker 1: about it. You did it, you played it at USC
Speaker 1: but it was extraordinary. It wasn't it was? And you know,
Speaker 1: I look at the election kind of the same ways
Speaker 1: what I loved about rugby. As you go out, you
Speaker 1: you compete to the fullest extent known demandkind killing you
Speaker 1: and when that whistle blows at the end, they bring
Speaker 1: out a keg, it's over. Yeah. What I don't get
Speaker 1: is you've got a gorgeous face. How did your this
Speaker 1: mut be all the money you got your I mean
Speaker 1: you like it's perfect figure. Eyesight must be failing. Yes
Speaker 1: it is, and it's I told Daily tom By so much.
Speaker 1: Clearly in support, in an early support of your president elected.
Speaker 1: He is a former governor of Minnesota. The hockey player
Speaker 1: from South St. Paul Jim Polini, Governor, Good morning, Well
Speaker 1: thanks for that introduction, particularly like that one. I was
Speaker 1: thrilled to have you from our studios in Washington. It
Speaker 1: is a different morning for Republicans in Washington. How do
Speaker 1: they adapt and adjust to their president elect? I think
Speaker 1: fairly easily. I think most of the Republicans if you
Speaker 1: look at their wish list, which is makes some progress
Speaker 1: on the debt and the deficit, get tougher with respect
Speaker 1: to immigration, make sure it's legal as opposed to illegal,
Speaker 1: try to get some regulatory reform and relief, try to
Speaker 1: better unleash of the American energy sector, fix or repeal Obamacare,
Speaker 1: and more. And you line that up with most of
Speaker 1: the Donald Trump's agenda. There's there's really good alignment, so
Speaker 1: I think for the Republican Congress, and that's sort of
Speaker 1: president You could see people get very busy in Washington
Speaker 1: very quickly. Governor Polanta, you now helm the financial services
Speaker 1: roundtable there in in Washington, d C. Your constituents, your
Speaker 1: members are big investors, the heads of big companies. What
Speaker 1: assurance are they getting this morning from the Trump campaign
Speaker 1: about a path forward here once he begins the transition. Well,
Speaker 1: he hasn't said a lot about financial services in detail,
Speaker 1: but he said a few things over the course of
Speaker 1: the campaign. Wondering the Republican Convention, they put a return
Speaker 1: to Glass Stiegel the breaking up of investment and commercial
Speaker 1: banking in the Republican platform, and his then campaign manager
Speaker 1: embrace that. I'm not sure how vigorously he'll embrace that
Speaker 1: as a president. He also said he wants to get
Speaker 1: rid of DoD Frank or at least substantially overhaul it
Speaker 1: and try to uh create more lending opportunities. And so
Speaker 1: that's hopeful from a industry standpoint. He attacked carried interest
Speaker 1: specifically in a couple of junctures that really affects more
Speaker 1: hedge funds than the regulated banks. The group that I
Speaker 1: represent and lead. He's also talked about the need to
Speaker 1: provide some relief for small banks and community banks in
Speaker 1: particular midsize banks. So and the list goes on a
Speaker 1: little bit, but but basically that's a list that is
Speaker 1: pretty uh I think would be hopeful from the industry
Speaker 1: feeling like that they've been overregulated in some respects. You're
Speaker 1: in the information business, your lobbying, you're talking to lawmakers
Speaker 1: about policy, what you'd like to see, what shape you'd
Speaker 1: like to see policy take. From what you know of
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, from what exposure you've had to him here
Speaker 1: over these last few months. How amenable is he to
Speaker 1: listening to people like you amid the rhetoric, of course
Speaker 1: of draining the swamp of Washington, d C. I think,
Speaker 1: you know, there's a big difference between what you do
Speaker 1: on the campaign trail and now the active governing. And
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be fair to say, based
Speaker 1: on the arc of his life and what we saw
Speaker 1: during the campaign, he's never going to be the kind
Speaker 1: of person who dives into policy details. So I think
Speaker 1: he's going to set a direction in a tone, and
Speaker 1: then try to trust people around him to build out
Speaker 1: the details and move it forward. And so who he
Speaker 1: appoints to these positions is going to be very telling
Speaker 1: and very impactful and very important the governor. I mentioned
Speaker 1: this morning, elections of eighteen hundred, of nineteen sixteen, and
Speaker 1: of course the history of nineteen sixty. Uh. You are
Speaker 1: a Catholic, but you have, with your wife, spent much
Speaker 1: more time within the evangelical movement. How did Donald Trump
Speaker 1: gain the evangelical vote was some of the outrages of
Speaker 1: this campaign. You lived it out in Minnesota. How did
Speaker 1: he pull that off? I think Donald Trump is somebody
Speaker 1: who benefited from his own charisma his own projection of
Speaker 1: strength people wanted and perceived strength. And then there's a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of people in this country who were either
Speaker 1: afraid of being disenfranchised or were disenfranchised. And one group
Speaker 1: of that where people who are concerned about their faith
Speaker 1: and religious freedom, the future of the Supreme Court. And
Speaker 1: while they may not have love Donald Trump's behavior at
Speaker 1: certain chapters in his life, they were very much fearful
Speaker 1: of what Hillary Clinton might do in that regard as
Speaker 1: it relates to religious freedom, Supreme Court appointments, and the like.
Speaker 1: And they realize those appointments in particular will last and
Speaker 1: have an impact for twenty or thirty years, and so
Speaker 1: they I think, we're willing to make some concessions and
Speaker 1: realize it's an imperfect package, but on balance, they'd rather
Speaker 1: have Trump for those reasons. Then Clinton, let's turn our
Speaker 1: attention to your home state, the state of Minnesota. Donald
Speaker 1: Trump and his campaign saying and the days leading up
Speaker 1: to the election that the campaign had a real shot
Speaker 1: of winning that state doesn't look like that happened. But
Speaker 1: what did he see in Minnesota? What did you see
Speaker 1: him seeing in Minnesota there that that others didn't well
Speaker 1: Minnesota has some characteristics of Wisconsin and some of the
Speaker 1: other Iowa and some of the other Midwestern states, but
Speaker 1: it also has some things that are you know, like
Speaker 1: other parts of the country, like Boston, for example. So
Speaker 1: we have a big med tech, high tech, more diverse
Speaker 1: economy frankly than some of the other parts of the Midwest.
Speaker 1: So it's a blend between some of the states that
Speaker 1: went for Trump and some of the states that went
Speaker 1: for Clinton. Clinton eked it out, but barely. It was
Speaker 1: much much closer than people would have imagined, and he actually,
Speaker 1: with a little bit more about boost could have potentially
Speaker 1: won it. But Minnesota hasn't voted Republican for presidents since
Speaker 1: Richard Nixon. Is the longest unbroken streak of any state
Speaker 1: in the nation voting for Democrat for president, and in
Speaker 1: part that's because Reagan won all the states and Monde
Speaker 1: was on the ballot and he didn't. He carried Mondale
Speaker 1: carried Minnesota governor there, former governor of Minnesota now c
Speaker 1: of the Financial Services Roundtable in Washington, d C. Next
Speaker 1: Ian Bremer joins us, of course it was a rasier group.
Speaker 1: He is picking up the debris of the international relations
Speaker 1: of your raisier group with a domestic focus today. Uh.
Speaker 1: Dr Bremer, good morning to you. There was a moment
Speaker 1: where Mexican Peso signaled Secretary Clinton would do what the
Speaker 1: elite said, and then things and then things changed. Why
Speaker 1: did they change at ten pm last night? Look, I
Speaker 1: mean there's no question as comes to the shock to
Speaker 1: everybody that was watching the polls. Um. You know, I
Speaker 1: think what happened is not the structural issues aren't different.
Speaker 1: It's just that they hit harder, right. I mean, you
Speaker 1: have a population with a very strong anti establishment sensibility.
Speaker 1: That's not just about democratic leadership, that's Republican leadership. Um,
Speaker 1: it's the mainstream media. Uh. Those You have an economic rebound,
Speaker 1: but a feeling that that rebound is not getting two
Speaker 1: lots of people in the middle and working classes. Um.
Speaker 1: And you also were running the most establishment candidate with
Speaker 1: a lot of negatives that either side could have put forward.
Speaker 1: Given all of that, the polls were still showing a
Speaker 1: very significant Hillary win towards the end um and a
Speaker 1: lot of it was it's about the question of turnout
Speaker 1: and a lot of people not telling you what they're
Speaker 1: planning on doing in the polls. Even given that the
Speaker 1: United States demographics should have given you a different outcome
Speaker 1: than what you saw in the UK. That just wasn't
Speaker 1: the case. And uh and and now, of course you're
Speaker 1: going to see a dramatically different US foreign policy in
Speaker 1: the rest of the world. Remember, let's talk a little
Speaker 1: bit about that policy. We we we have a situation
Speaker 1: in Syria that continues to worsen. We have fighting in
Speaker 1: most once again. We have a relationship with Russia that
Speaker 1: is fractious, to say the least. What's at the top
Speaker 1: of the agenda here for President elect Trump when it
Speaker 1: comes to foreign policy, Well, uh, you know, the wall
Speaker 1: is what he says is at the top of the agenda. Um,
Speaker 1: but nobody really believes that it's going to get built.
Speaker 1: I think the thing, the thing is that he talks
Speaker 1: about and the constraints that he will face in foreign
Speaker 1: policy will be very great. I mean, Obama was a
Speaker 1: radical departure from Bush's foreign policy. And you know, if
Speaker 1: you look at what Obama's foreign policy is actually accounted
Speaker 1: to over the course of eight years, you see that
Speaker 1: in most cases it's not all that different. You still
Speaker 1: have wars going on in Iraq, uh and Afghanistan, Guantanamo
Speaker 1: is still open. Um, European relations aren't that great. Israel
Speaker 1: Palestine hasn't gotten sex. I mean something's happened, of course,
Speaker 1: and Iran you know. Um. But you know, if you
Speaker 1: ask where Trump is going to matter most, He's gonna
Speaker 1: matter most in terms of the fact that every single
Speaker 1: US ally thinks that he's a disaster for their relationship
Speaker 1: in the future, thinks that he's not committed to American alliances,
Speaker 1: thinks he's not committed to American trade, thinks he's not
Speaker 1: committed to American values. And so therefore you're going to
Speaker 1: see an incredible amount of international hedging away from America
Speaker 1: and not towards any single thing. It's an absence of
Speaker 1: American leadership and an absence of global leadership, and so
Speaker 1: the Middle East in particular that means a lot more violent.
Speaker 1: Interestingly enough, in Syria's the one place that's given his
Speaker 1: relationship his desire to have a closer relationship with Russia.
Speaker 1: I do think the view will be as Sade isn't
Speaker 1: going anywhere, there's a big win for assad Um and uh,
Speaker 1: and let's just do what we can to get out
Speaker 1: and keep the fighting off. We continue with Ian Bremer
Speaker 1: of Eurisier Group, David guru quickly, a dated check with
Speaker 1: the tape improves particularly off where we were ten pm
Speaker 1: in the midnight futures negative thirty dramatically worse earlier. The
Speaker 1: down not negative four und negative three negative to thirty two.
Speaker 1: That's quite an improvement. Just over eighteen thousand yields come in,
Speaker 1: come in from where they were one point nine on
Speaker 1: the tenure yield David ian Bremer. Last night we heard
Speaker 1: Donald Trump doing CONCILIU tory as best he could around
Speaker 1: three o'clock in the morning when he delivered his speech
Speaker 1: at the at the at the Hilton here in Midtown Manhattan.
Speaker 1: He said that we would be willing to the U s,
Speaker 1: would be willing to meet with with any countries, again
Speaker 1: just emphasizing that he wants fair deals with them. Who's
Speaker 1: going to lead his efforts to engage with other foreign
Speaker 1: leaders around the world, Well, so far it's been his
Speaker 1: son in law, Jared Kushner. He's the one that's actually
Speaker 1: organized the meetings that Trump has had with heads of state.
Speaker 1: He's been in those meetings individually, um and he is
Speaker 1: he does have a strong view on foreign policy. Clearly
Speaker 1: wants to play a role. Um but in terms of
Speaker 1: who's going to be the Secretary of State or who's
Speaker 1: going to be, you know, sort of the Secretary of Defense.
Speaker 1: I mean, frankly, there's no one that's been around Trump
Speaker 1: that's considered radically credible on those issues. So either he
Speaker 1: goes for a complete outsider, uh, he takes one of
Speaker 1: his advisors that you know doesn't have experience on these points.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, Lute gang Ridge would be an
Speaker 1: obvious choice, um or, or you know you're gonna see
Speaker 1: him reach out some of the Republican establishment and and
Speaker 1: on foreign policy. Literally everyone in the Republican establishment has
Speaker 1: said that this strongly opposed to the guy who you
Speaker 1: put your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust
Speaker 1: in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four
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Speaker 1: with Tom Keane on the day after election Day two
Speaker 1: thousand sixteen, the ninth of November. Looking at economic indicators
Speaker 1: here brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. It's time
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Speaker 1: dot com to learn more. Tom at ten o'clock to
Speaker 1: the wholesale inventories wholesale trade sales coming out as weal
Speaker 1: tomorrow looking ahead to initial jobless claim. Suffice to say,
Speaker 1: the biggest economic indicator is Donald Trump President elect Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: and the uncertainty surrounding that, who will be on his cabinet,
Speaker 1: what his economic policy will look like. That's we're continuing
Speaker 1: to follow here this morning. And with that, I want
Speaker 1: to bring in the honorable Dick Gephard, former Congressman, former
Speaker 1: Democratic leader, joining us now by phone. He is now
Speaker 1: the president and CEO of the Get Heart Group and
Speaker 1: Congression Gap hard Pring to bear your experience governing in
Speaker 1: the minority when you have such a majority the other
Speaker 1: party in Washington. You take us back to how useful
Speaker 1: is it to look at that when you're when you're
Speaker 1: looking at the way things took out last night, Well,
Speaker 1: I think it is useful to look at history always
Speaker 1: an experience. Uh. You know, that was tumultuous election. We
Speaker 1: lost the House for the first time in forty years.
Speaker 1: So it was a big devastating loss to Democrats, just
Speaker 1: like this is today for Democrats. But it's a great
Speaker 1: country and we have to move forward together and you
Speaker 1: have to make decisions. And you know, I always remind
Speaker 1: people that in that period after ninety four, you know,
Speaker 1: the Republicans shut down the government twice and they impeach
Speaker 1: President Clinton. And in the midst of all that, we
Speaker 1: were solving problems. We balance the budget, we got welfare
Speaker 1: reform done. So you can do these things even in
Speaker 1: the midst of lots of disagreement and difficulty. And that's
Speaker 1: kind of the story of democracy. You know, it's a
Speaker 1: substitute for violence. Uh. You we put our ancestors, put
Speaker 1: five and thirty five people in the room, not one,
Speaker 1: and that means you've got to work hard every day,
Speaker 1: but among that group and with the president to get
Speaker 1: hard things done to resolve those inevitable conflicts that come
Speaker 1: on policy between this vast diverse country. Congressman gap Hard
Speaker 1: what happens to the anger that we have seen on
Speaker 1: the campaign trail here you mentioned with their proxies for
Speaker 1: that anger, how does that play out? Well, it's a
Speaker 1: real it's a real problem. But again, you have to
Speaker 1: deal with what you've got. Um, there were a lot
Speaker 1: of grievances, in my view, that were expressed last night.
Speaker 1: It's wrong, I think to make all this statements about
Speaker 1: what was being expressed. I think a lot of different
Speaker 1: things were being expressed. Economic grievances, gender grievances, social grievances,
Speaker 1: racial grievances, and and a lot of others. And and
Speaker 1: so there was a lot of anger out in the
Speaker 1: country for a variety of reasons that got expressed. The
Speaker 1: people make the decision, and so the people that got
Speaker 1: elected have a duty a responsibility to come to Washington
Speaker 1: and try painstakingly, which it always is, to find compromises
Speaker 1: they can allow the country to move forward. That's their job,
Speaker 1: and that's what they need to do. Mr Goodhart. It
Speaker 1: has been a tumultuous two weeks. I guess the election
Speaker 1: counts is a smaller item than the Chicago Cubs winning. Uh,
Speaker 1: And you know, I don't know what that means. To
Speaker 1: a gentleman from St. Louis. But I give us a
Speaker 1: perspective on how you are. And truly, your St. Louis
Speaker 1: has changed over the years. It's changed America. It is
Speaker 1: a different America. This was to happen, That was to happen.
Speaker 1: All the pundit's got it wrong. How is your St.
Speaker 1: Louis changed over the ensuing years. Well, there there's so
Speaker 1: much change. It's it's hard to know where to start. Uh.
Speaker 1: First of all, when I was growing up in the
Speaker 1: fifties and St. Louis, it was you know, uh, midwestern
Speaker 1: industrial town. We had big corporation headquarters. We had lots
Speaker 1: of jobs. My dad was a milk truck driver. Uh,
Speaker 1: delivered milk door to door. Uh. He didn't get through
Speaker 1: high school. And he used to always say to me,
Speaker 1: you know you have clothes on your back. You have Uh,
Speaker 1: we're in the middle class, he used to say, because
Speaker 1: I'm in a union that gets me fair wages for
Speaker 1: my hard work. That was the world I grew up in.
Speaker 1: That world is gone, and now you're into a completely
Speaker 1: different world. From all aspects. Our economy has changed dramatically
Speaker 1: in the last four fifty years. Our information revolution is
Speaker 1: to me bigger than the Industrial Revolution, and that's changed everything,
Speaker 1: disrupted everything, And and you've got a more multiracial society
Speaker 1: than we had. Women have obtained many more abilities to
Speaker 1: do things in the economy and in our society. So
Speaker 1: there's a lot of, you know, really earth moving change
Speaker 1: that's going on. And in a way, this this election
Speaker 1: and pat some past elections have been a reaction to
Speaker 1: a lot of that. We have a minute left only, sir,
Speaker 1: from our studios in Washington, how does your Democratic Party regroup?
Speaker 1: What do you need to see from the present leadership,
Speaker 1: Speaker Polosy and such Well. I think both parties are
Speaker 1: faced with grappling with all of this change and the
Speaker 1: grievances that and so you know, in our primary for president,
Speaker 1: we had the Bernie Sanders effect and that expressed a
Speaker 1: lot of these grievances that are out there. And I
Speaker 1: guess you can say, we've got to deal with that.
Speaker 1: The Democratic Party has to get back in touch with
Speaker 1: working class Americans. They've got to really address I think
Speaker 1: most importantly the Democrats a's have to be able to
Speaker 1: address with the Republicans these urgent issues that are in
Speaker 1: front of us. As a country and work with Republicans
Speaker 1: as best they can to find those magic compromises that
Speaker 1: allow us to move forward. He has Gobbard from St. Louis.
Speaker 1: Mr Gobert, thank you so much from our studios in
Speaker 1: Washington this morning. And you know this is remarkable, David.
Speaker 1: I mean, I just can't say enough about the guests
Speaker 1: we're having. They're truly the shock of this moment for all,
Speaker 1: including the supports Mr Trump. Unexpected by many. But yeah,
Speaker 1: we're gonna speak with another one. David mal passed me,
Speaker 1: joined me shortly the moon Shot near North Carolina last
Speaker 1: night from eighteen ish up to record weakness twenty five
Speaker 1: zero on Mexican pay, so a little better recovery through
Speaker 1: the morning, give Mr Trump speech, etcetera. But we've just
Speaker 1: had a new leg up and pay, so it'll be
Speaker 1: interesting to see if we break through the new weakness
Speaker 1: for all Americans. I really can't convey enough a careful
Speaker 1: read of always wonderful Michael Barone at the American Enterprise Institute.
Speaker 1: If you are the most die hard Bernie Sanders supporter
Speaker 1: or a supporter of Secretary Clinton and obviously Republican, Peru's
Speaker 1: his November five essay on royaltist royalist America. It is
Speaker 1: really something he leaves no and no candidates unscarred joining us.
Speaker 1: Now we are honored to have with his secretary mail Pass.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, I'm trying to get at, David, congratulations on
Speaker 1: your economic instincts, in your persistency of advocating a Republican
Speaker 1: party policy around the candidate you were del When did
Speaker 1: you become a Trump supporter? I don't think I Tom,
Speaker 1: good morning, and David um, I don't think. Uh, that's
Speaker 1: the right way to think about this. Donald Trump is
Speaker 1: very strongly knowledgeable about where he wants to take the country,
Speaker 1: and that's what drove this. It wasn't it wasn't people
Speaker 1: creating the plan. It was him saying, look, remember the
Speaker 1: knowledge of the tax code. The tax code is really
Speaker 1: screwed up. So that was the principal focus of of
Speaker 1: the of the campaign and so on down the list.
Speaker 1: Someone have suggested if school taxes, maybe we would have
Speaker 1: been able to focus on the code. Okay, but school
Speaker 1: choice is a really important thing to Americans. He identified that,
Speaker 1: talked about it a lot and did these, uh lots
Speaker 1: of addresses on policy change. So we ought to look
Speaker 1: at it that way. Can he affect policy now that
Speaker 1: the strategy has led to victory. I think so definitely.
Speaker 1: And so look at the republic can House incident. That's
Speaker 1: going to be a critical aspect of this. I liked
Speaker 1: last night how he reached out to lots of people,
Speaker 1: to foreign countries saying saying, we're gonna America is going
Speaker 1: to be fair for everyone. He reached out to rents previous,
Speaker 1: and so these were strong ways to bring people together.
Speaker 1: House and Senate will be critical in policy implementation. A
Speaker 1: lot of stuff he can do through leadership, and Americans
Speaker 1: in the exit polls yesterday, we're saying, above all, they
Speaker 1: want a strong leader, and he's showing that. And also
Speaker 1: I think UH showed a very good UH speech last
Speaker 1: night to bring people together. David Malpass, you have served
Speaker 1: in federal government, Donald Trump? No, no, please, you guys,
Speaker 1: that's not right. We'll talk to tomorrow. Let's see what
Speaker 1: the story is. You've served in government. Donald Trump very
Speaker 1: proudly has not served in government. If you had a
Speaker 1: few minutes with him to talk about what what he
Speaker 1: needs to know going into to running the federal government,
Speaker 1: what would you say, Again, that's not the way it works.
Speaker 1: He knows a lot about how government operates. He's been
Speaker 1: uh watching government and and thinking about how it should
Speaker 1: be done. He's already said that he wants a business
Speaker 1: like government, that the way the government has been operating
Speaker 1: is sloppy, it doesn't work, it's very costly. So we
Speaker 1: know one of the things he'll want to do is
Speaker 1: bring very qualified people into positions and allow them to
Speaker 1: operate the way he does in his business enterprises. We
Speaker 1: joke about you being Secretary Maupasspeter, are you convinced here
Speaker 1: that there are Republicans, establishment Republicans, others who will take
Speaker 1: the call when Donald Trump calls offering them positions in
Speaker 1: his government who may not have supported him here on
Speaker 1: the campaign trail. I don't mean to be cynical, but
Speaker 1: there are a lot of people who would like to
Speaker 1: like to help who weren't helping before. And so I
Speaker 1: think there is going to be a need for everybody
Speaker 1: in the country to kind of pull together and with
Speaker 1: there are millions of people not in the labor force.
Speaker 1: We've talked about this a lot, and that need jobs
Speaker 1: need to be have, small businesses that create new investments.
Speaker 1: Everybody has to pull together. You are the physicist from
Speaker 1: Colorado College. I want to not go over the physics
Speaker 1: of something complex. Steve Roach mentioned this yesterday before this
Speaker 1: shocking election. David mel Pass explain the physics of dynamics scoring.
Speaker 1: It's hugely controversial. People have beat you. Wilbert Ross and
Speaker 1: others of Peter Navarro tell me why the critics of
Speaker 1: male Pass dynamic scoring are wrong. Dynamic scoring simply means
Speaker 1: that the economy changes when you change policy. It's dynamic,
Speaker 1: and so we know that if you put in a
Speaker 1: better tax code, people are gonna work harder, they're going
Speaker 1: to invest more. There's a divide in the party. Sometimes
Speaker 1: Democrats say, oh no, people won't work more, they'll work
Speaker 1: less because they're getting more take home pay. That's not
Speaker 1: actually the way it works. When you have lower rates
Speaker 1: on a broader base, as Ronald Reagan did, you got
Speaker 1: more business involvement and more hiring, more people that wanted
Speaker 1: to advance, and the median income went up very rapidly.
Speaker 1: That's dynamics your model that into the portfolio and into
Speaker 1: the plug ins and predictions CBO for just for example,
Speaker 1: before the fact, or does President Trump and his administration
Speaker 1: have to wait as everyone else does tell after the fact.
Speaker 1: One way to do numbers is to say, if we
Speaker 1: grow four percent, what happens to revenues? And so if
Speaker 1: you keep revenues constant as a percentage of GDP, as
Speaker 1: you accelerate the GDP, it actually turns out that the
Speaker 1: debt to GDP ratio starts going down. If you then
Speaker 1: project that to the business community, say, look, things are
Speaker 1: getting better from the government's debt standpoint, they're going to
Speaker 1: invest more. And so you end up with a dynamic
Speaker 1: business investment environment that creates jobs like crazy. So and
Speaker 1: Mr Trump knew that from the beginning. He said, well,
Speaker 1: it's not just four percent. There can be more than that.
Speaker 1: I know there million jobs. The distinction here, using a
Speaker 1: phrase from President Obama, is the hope and audacity of
Speaker 1: modeling the success before you get that payoff from fiscal policy.
Speaker 1: Exactly right. Well, but if you model uh, stagnation, then
Speaker 1: businesses aren't going to invest. My current Forbes column, which
Speaker 1: is which I think is on newstands, says that straight out,
Speaker 1: when you d do a shameless plug, like when you're
Speaker 1: a secretary mailbost you just let it pass. Available on
Speaker 1: newsstands David belt Fast before before you went to Colorado Springs,
Speaker 1: you were in you were in northern Michigan looking at
Speaker 1: the election results last night, Donald Trump carrying Michigan, the
Speaker 1: first time Republican has done that since he tapped into
Speaker 1: something there. We were talking about the burden of expectations earlier,
Speaker 1: a lot of rhetoric here about Ford sending jobs to Mexico,
Speaker 1: the carrier air conditioning company sending jobs out of the
Speaker 1: country as well. You've got people now who are expecting action.
Speaker 1: How is Donald Trump going to deliver? Yeah, So I
Speaker 1: grew up in a very small town in in in
Speaker 1: blue collar my uh in in iron iron foundry country,
Speaker 1: and so it's very challenging for American workers to see
Speaker 1: iron coming in from India castings that are landed in
Speaker 1: Michigan at a lower cost than what could possibly be
Speaker 1: produced in the US. And so that that Trump was
Speaker 1: able to explain that to Americans that the system, the
Speaker 1: global government system that we've been operating under hasn't worked
Speaker 1: for Americans. I think there can be constructive changes, And
Speaker 1: he reached out to everybody in the world yesterday and
Speaker 1: said let's make this work. Actually was Secretary male Pass
Speaker 1: I want to know bring that. I want to bring
Speaker 1: up one name. We're trying to avoid the uh, the
Speaker 1: guessing of the administration, but there is one name to
Speaker 1: the service nation. You and I know him quite well,
Speaker 1: and that is Roger Ferguson. Is it time for Mr
Speaker 1: Ferguson to re enter the political maelstrom and serve the
Speaker 1: nation again? He was a great FED vice chair. I
Speaker 1: don't so, I really don't have comments on personnel. Um
Speaker 1: there you know, uh. President elect Trump has said that
Speaker 1: he's going to reach out to lots, to the best,
Speaker 1: most talented. He used a Kennedy phrase, I think last night,
Speaker 1: best and brightest to make the country grow again and
Speaker 1: great again. And so certainly anyone who can contribute to that,
Speaker 1: there is the need for them to do it, either
Speaker 1: in their own business or in government. Both ways. We
Speaker 1: need a government that's working effectively for the American people.
Speaker 1: We haven't had that and that can be repaired. David,
Speaker 1: congratulations on the wisdom of this election. From the eyes
Speaker 1: of the mel best. Just congrats to Trump worked. Think
Speaker 1: how hard he worked every day for two years, giving
Speaker 1: speech after speech to explain this to the biggest part
Speaker 1: of the American public. You know, David Melpos, thank you
Speaker 1: so much. Within SEEMA Global and an early supporter of
Speaker 1: the economics of President elect Trump. It is a most
Speaker 1: odd market. It is uncorrelated, and its levels in search
Speaker 1: of new levels yields eleven basis points higher one point
Speaker 1: nine seven. As we mentioned earlier, the probability of that
Speaker 1: action coming in decisively off the Bloomberg on December roughly
Speaker 1: right now green on the screen, the dots sixty eight points.
Speaker 1: But stocks going this way and that David Wilson, of
Speaker 1: course mentioning the hospital stocks crushed off of thoughts on
Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Act. We afford a good time to
Speaker 1: speak with Mohammed el Arian. It is wonderful to speak
Speaker 1: to him, of course. Pub and the Ft a bit ago.
Speaker 1: Dr Larin, Good morning your book, When Markets Collide, Change
Speaker 1: the Language of Game Theory, page two eighty. Pascal's wager
Speaker 1: applies to a situation in which there is a small
Speaker 1: probability of an event that has an enormous consequence. Thank
Speaker 1: you for predicting the Trump election. Good morning Tom, Tom.
Speaker 1: It's it's just one of a long list of improbable,
Speaker 1: if not unthinkables, that have become reality. And it's the
Speaker 1: system telling us something, which is, if you run advanced
Speaker 1: economies at low speed for a long time, and if
Speaker 1: the low speed is non inclusive, things great. My chart
Speaker 1: of the year is real g d P down forty
Speaker 1: percent on a rate basis from four points some percent
Speaker 1: to two point one back thirty years or so, and
Speaker 1: it really speaks to the slowdown. What policy persu scryption
Speaker 1: can there be to jump start this economy to the
Speaker 1: quoted Trump number of four percent. So the good news
Speaker 1: is there's pretty broad based consensus in the profession that
Speaker 1: you need to move on four things. One pro growth
Speaker 1: structural reforms such as corporate tax reform, to a more
Speaker 1: balanced demand management including infrastruction, infrastructor spending on fiscal side.
Speaker 1: Three deal with the debt problems in Greece and elsewhere.
Speaker 1: And finally, better global policy coordination. So there with an
Speaker 1: engineering solution, it's whether the politics will implement it. You
Speaker 1: grew up in a house of diplomacy, doctor l Arion.
Speaker 1: You have an esteemed British education or game theory is
Speaker 1: a cottage industry. What should be the game theory of
Speaker 1: Mr Trump? As he moves from movement as he called
Speaker 1: it in his acceptance speech to the reality of executing politics.
Speaker 1: What's the change agent he needs within Donald Trump's game theory?
Speaker 1: So I think it's to move quickly in areas that
Speaker 1: have an immediate positive impact and where there is broad
Speaker 1: based agreement. So he has promised, for example, infrastructure spending,
Speaker 1: corporate tax reform, raising the tax on kine, interest the regulation.
Speaker 1: If he moves quickly on this but refrains from moving
Speaker 1: on other things he promised, particularly protectionism, slapping tariffs on
Speaker 1: China in Mexico, breaking up NaSTA. If he was able
Speaker 1: to do this combination and communicated as he did at
Speaker 1: two thirty this morning in a consuliatory fashion, he could
Speaker 1: get moments. He could get positive moment two themes to
Speaker 1: speak of in our final minutes with you this morning.
Speaker 1: Can Prime Minister may avoid a hard Brexit? The language
Speaker 1: of Parliament seems to be towards moderation. Is that feasible
Speaker 1: within the British system? Um? It is? It is? It
Speaker 1: is feasible she can avoid a hart Brexit. Um right
Speaker 1: now things have moved towards a softer Brexit and a
Speaker 1: longer Brexit process, so clearly that there is a way out.
Speaker 1: But the politics again are complicated, and we haven't even
Speaker 1: spoken about what's happening with the Italian referendum. Politics will
Speaker 1: remain a big issue on your show, Tom in the
Speaker 1: in the weecent months to come, we'll see that we
Speaker 1: had wonderful perspective. Thank you to Richard House and Robert
Speaker 1: Hormeance for perspective this morning. Finally, Dr Hilarion to your Egypt.
Speaker 1: The depreciation, the unpegging, if you will, of the Egyptian
Speaker 1: pound was extraordinary. How does the LCC government, whatever you
Speaker 1: want to phrase it as a government, how do they
Speaker 1: deal with a black market Egyptian pound effect the effect
Speaker 1: of that upon the people of Cairo in Egypt. So,
Speaker 1: first and foremost, they need to protect the most vulnerable
Speaker 1: segment of the population, and the program that they've agreed
Speaker 1: to the i m F attempts to do that. Secondly,
Speaker 1: they need to promote higher growth quickly and there are
Speaker 1: the reforms. And thirdly they have to make sure that
Speaker 1: the exchange system work works properly. Um this is probably
Speaker 1: the most comprehensive reform program that Egypt has put together,
Speaker 1: and there's commitment from the very top to its implementation.
Speaker 1: It's it's going to be really critical for them to
Speaker 1: follow through and for them to get the external assistance
Speaker 1: that the program assumes, but doesn't it assume domestic reform
Speaker 1: as well? And can the LCC government do that? Can
Speaker 1: they domestically reform away from international rulemakers like Madame Legarde
Speaker 1: in the i m F. So what they're hoping to
Speaker 1: do is to reform with the support of the international
Speaker 1: community UM and implement a program that they have stressed
Speaker 1: is designed in Egypt for Egypt, but needs to support
Speaker 1: of the outside world. That that is the approach, that's
Speaker 1: that's being adopted, and we will see as as the
Speaker 1: various components come together and whether that sustained or not.
Speaker 1: Duch Llarian, thank you so much, greatly appreciate Muhammeddlarian, folks.
Speaker 1: I can't say enough about his more recent a book
Speaker 1: is well and frankly becomes ever more interesting given the
Speaker 1: political festivities of the last twenty four hours. Just truly
Speaker 1: truly extraordinary. Muhammadalarian, of course, writing off in for Bloomberg View.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and
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Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm out on Twitter at Tom Keene. David
Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can
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