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Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put

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Speaker 1: their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune

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Speaker 1: of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your

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Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and

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Speaker 1: of course, on the Bloomberg Good Morning, David Gura with

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance Wednesday, November the nine, the

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Speaker 1: day after Election Day, two thousand sixteen. Since the polls

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Speaker 1: closed yesterday, we've kept one eye on the popular vote

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Speaker 1: in the Electoral College, the other eye on the markets.

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Speaker 1: Analyst said Donald Trump's path the White House would be

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Speaker 1: narrow when it looked like he was indeed on that path,

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Speaker 1: winning Florida, giving Hillary Clinton a run for her money

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Speaker 1: in Virginia. The sell off began in earnest the Mexican

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Speaker 1: pay so touching record lows. Overnight doubt futures down more

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Speaker 1: than seven hundred points from time to time. Around two

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Speaker 1: am Wall Street time, The announcement came from John Podesta,

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman, telling her stunned supporters at the

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Speaker 1: Jabbt Center they would not hear from the Democratic candidate,

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Speaker 1: not until every vote is counted. Donald Trump, for his part,

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Speaker 1: did not wait. He spoke at his election night headquarters

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Speaker 1: about an hour later, thanked those supporters and made a

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Speaker 1: constiliatory gesture or two to his opponent and her supporters.

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Speaker 1: President elect Donald Trump standing next to Vice President elect

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Speaker 1: Mike Pence and now four hours later, seeing futures down

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Speaker 1: less dramatically than they were last night, S and P

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Speaker 1: futures down forty five points dollar pays so at N

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Speaker 1: twelve and gold which we're keeping an eye on all

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Speaker 1: last night at thirteen oh three fifteen. Joining us now

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Speaker 1: in studios, Bob Formats, vice chairman of Kisinger and Associate's Bob.

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Speaker 1: Great to have you here, great to bear Thanks. It's

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Speaker 1: played out just as you expected. Imagine. This is a

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Speaker 1: big surprise to me, a big shock. But now we

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Speaker 1: have a new president elect and we have to figure

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Speaker 1: out a way of making sure that he succeeds in

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Speaker 1: dealing with the problems that the country faces and pulling

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Speaker 1: the country back together. This country. It's not just divided,

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Speaker 1: it's fractured. And healing this fracture is going to take

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Speaker 1: a lot of work across party lines and within parties,

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Speaker 1: because they're very very strongly held views in both parties

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Speaker 1: that ultimately, if you're going to get any progress at all,

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Speaker 1: you have to compromise on some things. I think there

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Speaker 1: can be a deal on infrastructure, and I think both

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Speaker 1: Clinton and Trump focused a lot on small business, and

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Speaker 1: there are plans in the House Republican bill for lowering

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Speaker 1: taxes on small businesses. Uh that could be very helpful

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Speaker 1: to individual proprietaryships or LLCs or individual companies, small businesses

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Speaker 1: that now pay the individual income tax. If you lower

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Speaker 1: taxes on small business, that can be very helpful, and

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Speaker 1: I think there could be a consensus developed on that.

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Speaker 1: For instance, among the things that we didn't talk about

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Speaker 1: in much detail before last night was how Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: would govern with a Republican Congress, Republican House, and Republican Senate.

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Speaker 1: It does make things easier here having republic control of

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Speaker 1: both those houses, yes, it does. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: the rule of the Senators you have to get sixty

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Speaker 1: votes to get legislation through and therefore having a slight

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Speaker 1: majority in the Senate doesn't guarantee you're going to get

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Speaker 1: what you want. In addition, there are divisions between Ryan

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Speaker 1: and the President elect Trump on a certain issues, so

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Speaker 1: he's got to work out arrangements with with Ryan and

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Speaker 1: with others in the House to get the kind of

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Speaker 1: things he wants. So he's gonna even though they're all publicans,

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Speaker 1: he still has to make deals with the House because

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Speaker 1: they don't see things eye to eye with him. And

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Speaker 1: on trade, he has a lot of authority. He's been

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Speaker 1: delegated over decades, a huge amount of authority, and he

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Speaker 1: can take action on trade without having to discuss it

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Speaker 1: with the House. He may find it prudent to do so,

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Speaker 1: but he can. He has a lot of authority. And

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Speaker 1: if he abuses that authority, if he does the kind

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Speaker 1: of things he says he's going to do he said

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Speaker 1: he's going to do in the campaign, you could have

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Speaker 1: a great many problems. Even if fiscal policy is sound.

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Speaker 1: You could have a trade war if he decides to

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Speaker 1: go after China, impose unilaterally a forty cent tara for

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Speaker 1: do the kind of things to abolish NAFTA. And I

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Speaker 1: think with the markets. More worried about is not so

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Speaker 1: much his fiscal policy because our checks and balances, and

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Speaker 1: there are a number of people he has to work

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Speaker 1: with to get fiscal policy through. He is almost unlimited

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Speaker 1: for the moment powers on trade to take tough action,

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Speaker 1: and and that could cause huge problems in the market

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Speaker 1: if he pursues the policies he said he could moderate them,

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Speaker 1: and I think there will be people who would argue

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Speaker 1: that they should be moderated tougher lines, but not these

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Speaker 1: kind of policies that would cause a trade war. David Gura.

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Speaker 1: For me, it was a tell tale moment. Two things happened.

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Speaker 1: Chris Matthews killed it on MSNBC with an analysis of

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Speaker 1: the Philadelphia suburbs in particularly Bucks County, and the other

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Speaker 1: was a loss of your North Carolina. What when for

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Speaker 1: you in the heat of the coverage last night was

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Speaker 1: the shift made? It felt like for hours we were

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Speaker 1: watching Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and I was sitting next

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Speaker 1: to Megan Murphy, as you mentioned, and she also was

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Speaker 1: looking at Pennsylvania very closely. And the story through the

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Speaker 1: night when we're looking at Virginia as well, was about

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Speaker 1: these suburbs about these ex serbs in Virginia. The story

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Speaker 1: was similar in Pennsylvania as well. We talked about the

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Speaker 1: diaconomy there the two Pennsylvania's Barack Obama had a lot

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Speaker 1: of success bringing in massive votes in and around Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: It appears Hillary Clint did not have the same success.

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Speaker 1: I agree, And it's so much a type two. Not

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Speaker 1: so much what Mr Trump did, but the analysis of

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Speaker 1: post mortem of how Secretary Clinton perform. Robert Harmetts, you

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Speaker 1: worked within the Obama administration and most directly with Secretary Clinton.

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Speaker 1: How would you suggest she will move on after this

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Speaker 1: stunning defeat. It's gonna be tough. She is a tough

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Speaker 1: person though, and she's I think able to deal with

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Speaker 1: difficult circumstances, but this one. I think she felt very

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Speaker 1: good about running, and I think she felt that she

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Speaker 1: had a very good chance of winning. But she also

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Speaker 1: is not going to back off from playing a role

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Speaker 1: in American politics, even if it's not as president. She

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Speaker 1: has a number of strong views about issues, and I

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Speaker 1: think she will weigh in and I think if the

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Speaker 1: president's wise, President Elect Trump is wise, he will sit

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Speaker 1: down and and talk to her and at least get

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Speaker 1: some sense on some of the issues, perhaps issues on

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Speaker 1: which they agree or could agree. We have to pull

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Speaker 1: the country together. The fractured country, if it continues to

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Speaker 1: be fractured from political and a social point of view,

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Speaker 1: we're not going to get very much done. One way

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Speaker 1: he could do it is to reach out and UH

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Speaker 1: talk to her and others in the Democratic Party. One

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Speaker 1: of the things that was very interesting when Eisenhower won

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Speaker 1: a very controversial nomination UH in nineteen fifty two, he

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Speaker 1: ran against Taft. Taft was the one he defeated. On

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Speaker 1: the floor of the of the of the convention, he

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Speaker 1: walked over to Taft and said, look, we've got to

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Speaker 1: sit down together. I think what Trump is gonna have

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Speaker 1: to do is be much more inclusive, talk to people

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Speaker 1: in his own party like Ryan who have a lot

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Speaker 1: of doubts about some of his policies, but also have

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Speaker 1: a dialogue with UH senior Democrats in order to get

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Speaker 1: the country moving together. Not in every area. It's not

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Speaker 1: gonna work in every area, but in some areas. Having

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Speaker 1: a conversation with her and other Democrats is going to

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Speaker 1: be important. If he wants to be the if he

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Speaker 1: wants to get things done, and he wants to be

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Speaker 1: the president, the inclusive president that he mentioned he wanted

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Speaker 1: to be. Last night, that statement here from the White House.

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Speaker 1: Just crossing a statement from the Press secretary from the

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Speaker 1: White House residence, the President phone Donald Trump to congratulate

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Speaker 1: him on his victory early this morning. The President also

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Speaker 1: called Secretary Clinton, expressed admiration for the strong campaign she

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Speaker 1: waged throughout the country, and that just coming across it

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Speaker 1: from the White House moments ago. Bob Formats. Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: on the campaign trail said many times he was a

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Speaker 1: candidate capable of change, often in the face of criticism.

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Speaker 1: He said he would act differently if he were to

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Speaker 1: become president. Did you see signs of that last night

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Speaker 1: in the speech that he gave. It wasn't a long speech,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't a speech marked by sweeping rhetoric, but he

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Speaker 1: was at points conciliatory. The tone of what he said

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Speaker 1: last night, however, brief, as you say, was actually very constructive.

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Speaker 1: And if he continues that tone, that notion of inclusivity,

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Speaker 1: that he wants to be the president for all the people,

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Speaker 1: that will be very important who he picks as his advisors,

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Speaker 1: if he picks people who are pragmatists. That will be

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Speaker 1: a very important signal that progress is going to be made.

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Speaker 1: If he picks ideologues, it'll be much more difficult to

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Speaker 1: make progress. The President has invited President Elect Trump to

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Speaker 1: meet him at the White House on Thursday of this

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Speaker 1: week to update him on the transition planning. His team

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Speaker 1: has been working on that for nearly a year as well.

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Speaker 1: I just want to mention that to Tom Baba Herma,

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Speaker 1: it's very quickly you are out of Baltimore, Maryland. I

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Speaker 1: would suggest that Mr Trump had to support just as

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Speaker 1: one example of the Baltimore police officers are many of

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Speaker 1: them as well. He has a constituency which he has

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Speaker 1: to meet with, and he has to address the people

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Speaker 1: that voted him in and their needs. How will he

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Speaker 1: express that in the first critical hundred days he he

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Speaker 1: does have to deal with his constituency. It's a constituency

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Speaker 1: that feels marginalized. It feels that the elites have not

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Speaker 1: paid attention to them, that that that the people who

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Speaker 1: are running the country have really not dealt with their issues.

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Speaker 1: So he's got to figure out a way of addressing

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Speaker 1: some of the grievances that his constituents, the people who

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Speaker 1: supported in the movement is he calls it feel most

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Speaker 1: strongly about and that I think requires him to try

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Speaker 1: to figure out ways of dealing with it. With the

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Speaker 1: tax issue. Uh, the tax issue at this point, I

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Speaker 1: think it is probably not gonna fly through the House,

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Speaker 1: but he also finds some way of doing Let's come back.

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Speaker 1: Robert Harmett's with us this morning. David Gura with me

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Speaker 1: up until two thirty or three? Did you get any

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Speaker 1: sleep at all? In a half hour He's got back

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Speaker 1: to the hotel about about what I got. John Tucker

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Speaker 1: has been up for forty eight hours enlivening. Is Governor

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Speaker 1: Christie caud looking for you to take over as he

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Speaker 1: goes to Washington. Uh, you know it was all seriousness.

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Speaker 1: You gotta wonder it's this, with this mess that's going

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Speaker 1: on in federal courts in Newark, where does it stop?

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Speaker 1: And I don't has that has come up with see

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Speaker 1: that as well. We welcome all of you nationwide, indeed

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Speaker 1: around the world. For those of you are on the world.

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Speaker 1: This is remarkably American centric this morning, and we're thrilled

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Speaker 1: to have with us Robert Orman, who has served administrations

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Speaker 1: on both sides. I think I almost recently directly with

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Speaker 1: Secretary Clinton and President Obama State Boba Hormants. I I

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Speaker 1: guess we defined that we redefine the phrase flyover America

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Speaker 1: is David was mentioning on the break the map looks

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Speaker 1: a little different, uh this morning. It is about demographics,

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Speaker 1: it's about culture, it's about race. It's about a new

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Speaker 1: America and the establishment. You're a card carrying a member

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Speaker 1: must adapt. The establishment has to adopt. I think you're

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Speaker 1: exactly right. At first. It has to understand what's going

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Speaker 1: on in Middle America. We in New York, I think

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Speaker 1: live in a cocoon. Uh, we don't really understand what's

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Speaker 1: going on in the Midwest and all these states or

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Speaker 1: on Eleventh Avenue, but continue or eleventh Avenue right or

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Speaker 1: or or north of ninety s uh we. When I

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Speaker 1: was under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, I made

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Speaker 1: a point of going to various parts of the country

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Speaker 1: that had been hit by the downturn, the Great Recession, Gary, Indiana, Hammond, Indiana,

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Speaker 1: hamm Trammic Michigan, New Orleans, and there it was palpable

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Speaker 1: that these people felt that they had not benefited from

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Speaker 1: the recovery that globalization was a threat that the money

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Speaker 1: that was spent to restimulate the economy had not helped them.

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Speaker 1: It had helped Wall Street and big business, it had

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Speaker 1: not helped them. They weren't getting any money. The financing

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Speaker 1: wasn't there for them. Globalization was harmful to them, and

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Speaker 1: new technology was displacing their I know David wants to

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Speaker 1: get in here. He's got a surveillance bagel in his

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Speaker 1: mouth right now, which is helping out. Bob Hormet's helped

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Speaker 1: me here with your definition of Trump capitalism after what

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Speaker 1: you've observed for the last two years. Well, I think

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Speaker 1: Trump capitalism, essentially, as he has described it, is to

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Speaker 1: lower taxes not just on lower income people, but upper

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Speaker 1: income people, hoping that will stimulate more demand. Uh. That

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Speaker 1: is probably his his main thing. He also wants to

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Speaker 1: do certain things that will help small businesses. The House

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Speaker 1: Ways and Means Committee, Kevin Brady and the and the

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Speaker 1: and the Speaker have a very thoughtful plan to lower

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Speaker 1: taxes for small businesses so that so called passed through

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Speaker 1: income will be taxed at fift and not the thirty

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Speaker 1: nine point six individual tax rate. I think there are

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Speaker 1: things that can be done that will pull Democrats and

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Speaker 1: Republicans together. Everyone knows you need to do things to

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Speaker 1: help small business. This at least is one area. There's

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Speaker 1: also gonna be a lot of focus on how do

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Speaker 1: you repatriate the two trillion or so dollars that are

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Speaker 1: held abroad. Their numerous plans being developed again in the

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Speaker 1: so called House Republican blueprint that can be utilized for this.

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Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be a lot of discussion of

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Speaker 1: these kinds of things, whether they're in Trump's program or

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Speaker 1: they're in the House Republican programmers. And the program there

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Speaker 1: is where I think you can get some degree of

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Speaker 1: of harmony amongst the various parties interests. The burden of

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Speaker 1: expectations here is is heavy. Donald Trump is able to

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Speaker 1: travel to western Pennsylvania and and talk to folks who

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Speaker 1: have been out of work, say he's going to change things,

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Speaker 1: say cold is coming back, for instance, that talked about

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Speaker 1: the carrier conditioners, that companies sending jobs overseas, Ford sending

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Speaker 1: jobs everse easier said than done, though, And these are

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Speaker 1: people who are angry who are expecting him to do something. Yes,

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Speaker 1: expectations are very high because the main theme of his

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Speaker 1: campaign was that people in Washington weren't listening to Middle America,

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Speaker 1: to these people who feel disenfranchised, who feel the pain

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Speaker 1: of of the downturn and haven't really recovered from it,

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Speaker 1: so their expectations are very high. Finding answers to these

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Speaker 1: problems not so easy, because you can bring manufacturing back,

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Speaker 1: but with new technology. The kind of manufacturing that is

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Speaker 1: going to come back may produce more goods, but probably

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Speaker 1: we'll produce them with fewer people because of newer technologies.

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Speaker 1: So the changes really are more driven by technology, uh

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Speaker 1: than by trade competition. Trade competition can display some jobs,

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Speaker 1: but technology displaces a lot of jobs and doesn't create

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Speaker 1: as many new jobs for the future as we had anticipated.

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Speaker 1: Bob Hormets, thank you so much for coming in this morning.

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Speaker 1: You had eight reasons to cancel. So much going on today,

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Speaker 1: but I greatly appreciate Ambassador Hormets. Uh. Look for is

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Speaker 1: there a book coming out? Do we do? We? I

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Speaker 1: haven't had time, but I'd like to write one. Since

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Speaker 1: you and I collaborate on our last book, we ought

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Speaker 1: to try another one two. But I do think we

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Speaker 1: have to look ahead and think ahead, and and and plan.

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Speaker 1: We've been very tactical as a country, and our governments

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Speaker 1: have been very tactical looking at the short term. We

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Speaker 1: need a long term strategy for creating growth and opportunity.

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Speaker 1: I can't just react to events of the day. Bob Horts,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. David Grein, Toime Key Bloomberg, throwed

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Speaker 1: you where this David Gerr and Tom Keene. We're picking

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Speaker 1: up the debris after an historic day for America, a

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Speaker 1: nation and a world in shock over our political moment.

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Speaker 1: We are honored to bring you now someone who was

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Speaker 1: in sharp support and strong support for Mr Trump. Uh

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Speaker 1: Tom Barrick, who has been more than visible with Colony

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Speaker 1: capital Um. What you need to know, folks, that he's

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Speaker 1: does own the coolest bar in the world, raffles over

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Speaker 1: in Singapore, and that is a good and beautiful thing.

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Speaker 1: If you and I already have a beverage of our

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Speaker 1: choice Singapore, Yeah, in Singapore today, Tom, I would point

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Speaker 1: out your grandparents came over from Lebanon. How does your

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Speaker 1: president elect speak to immigrants in America and the people

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Speaker 1: that want to come? And I think it's simple. I

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Speaker 1: think it's a message of hope, opportunity and renewal. And

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Speaker 1: I think what you saw last night was a blowout

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Speaker 1: of of that immigrant mentality, right, of the beauty of

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Speaker 1: America being a place where if you have a desire,

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Speaker 1: if you have the opportunity, if you have the hard work,

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Speaker 1: you can do it. And we've lost that over the

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Speaker 1: last decade or so. So I think I'm a great

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Speaker 1: example of my grandparents. My parents coming over in the

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Speaker 1: in the in the cargo whole of a ship, with nothing,

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Speaker 1: and due to the beauty of the American system, had

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Speaker 1: an opportunity to make a living in a life way

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Speaker 1: beyond their dreams for the kids. Can we get legislation

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Speaker 1: through that? It's Republican president, Republican House, Republican Senate. Is

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Speaker 1: it a republican California? I don't even know. Can we

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Speaker 1: get legislation finally done on immigration? I think absolutely so

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Speaker 1: the Vice president. Hence, when you think of the opportunity today,

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Speaker 1: it's immense you have Trump leadership, and I think you're

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Speaker 1: going to see the cadence of the man now as

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Speaker 1: president much different than the cadence of the man as candidate.

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Speaker 1: The markets will will calm, the waters will will quiet,

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Speaker 1: and Vice President Pence will have a role that probably

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Speaker 1: no Vice President has had in leading and mentoring through

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Speaker 1: that congressional lab Did Tom Barrick wake up this morning

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Speaker 1: and look at the real estate listings in Washington, DC?

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Speaker 1: Are you are you going to be headed to Washington?

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Speaker 1: We're very curious here sort of what kind of team

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump would assemble just broadly speaking here, whom does

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Speaker 1: he hire? Yeah, I mean that's that's right question, right,

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Speaker 1: because if you look at President Reagan, a lot of

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Speaker 1: the same questions. Right. He was an actor, He was

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Speaker 1: from California, which was a horrible thing. He went to

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Speaker 1: Eureka College, which nobody had heard of. He had no

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Speaker 1: foreign policy experience, and he was divorced. What did he do?

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Speaker 1: He surrounded himself with the best of class cabinet, so

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Speaker 1: he had George schultzkap Winburger, Richard Allen. I think you're

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Speaker 1: gonna see that now happen. He Trump has a great

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Speaker 1: transition team. But if if you think of who the

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Speaker 1: availability those candidates were until yesterday, it was more limited

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Speaker 1: because people who would consider it weren't taking it that seriously.

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Speaker 1: So just in the last twelve hours on my iPhone alone,

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Speaker 1: the quality of the candidates who now want to be

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Speaker 1: considered is dramatic. So I think you're going to see

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Speaker 1: great choices of people who understand the system, who have

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Speaker 1: used the system, but are not of the system, so

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Speaker 1: that you can affect that gigantic aircraft carrier of bureaucracy

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Speaker 1: and tiny degrees, not in jolts, but in tiny degrees.

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Speaker 1: You're a successful businessman. You've heard Donald Trump talk about

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Speaker 1: say that the Federal Reserve in political terms, terms that

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Speaker 1: he's been criticized for. For those in business who are

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Speaker 1: worried about remarks like that that they might see as flippant,

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Speaker 1: Can you offer some assurance here that he is going

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Speaker 1: to move forward in a very measured way. Yes, I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think what he was doing before I analogize it

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Speaker 1: to the uf the UFC cage he was in political battle.

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Speaker 1: He's using every known martial arts and slugfest tactic that

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Speaker 1: he can. Now he's president United States. Every word that

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Speaker 1: he says reflects global terror, fear, or confidence, and I

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Speaker 1: think you'll see him be much more judicious about what

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Speaker 1: his statements are. Help me with the Republican Party, for

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Speaker 1: for you grew up in the collegial love fest known

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Speaker 1: as Southern California, Republican What a mess that used to

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Speaker 1: be back and forth? You work with Mr Komback and

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Speaker 1: the personal attorney to President Nixon. How do you perceive

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Speaker 1: the new Republican Party with a different demographic in America?

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Speaker 1: Where do the next Republicans come from? Yeah? We we

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Speaker 1: we don't have a deep bench. And I think what

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Speaker 1: we've seen in both parties is a redefinition of everything

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Speaker 1: of the parties, of the way we analyze um social

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Speaker 1: agendas and and monetary agendas and fiscal agendas. And when

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Speaker 1: when you look at the polling and the exit polling

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Speaker 1: of what happened, what we realize is we have no

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Speaker 1: tools anymore. Right, the tools were totally useless, and I

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Speaker 1: think I think they're equally use useless. In both parties.

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Speaker 1: You find people are tired of rhetoric. They want action.

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Speaker 1: A lot of people are very liberal on social issues

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Speaker 1: in the Republican Party and very conservative on fiscal issues,

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Speaker 1: but they don't know what it means. You you own

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Speaker 1: the earthquake free part of Santa Barbara because there's only

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Speaker 1: two acres of it. I didn't hear anything on Green

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Speaker 1: America climate change. What what's the strategy here for something

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Speaker 1: dear to the heart of every California. What is President

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Speaker 1: Trump going to do on these huge issues of climate change?

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Speaker 1: I think I think it'll evolve and and you know,

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Speaker 1: the priorities of the first hundred days, of course, are

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Speaker 1: a little bit like when you're in an airplane and

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Speaker 1: you're losing altitude. The first thing the captain says is

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Speaker 1: take the oxygen mask and put it on. We do

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Speaker 1: that every morning to get out of it. By the way,

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Speaker 1: I love it. I love it here. You guys have

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Speaker 1: a very cool place. But he doesn't says, He doesn't say,

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Speaker 1: take the mask and put it on your four friends,

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Speaker 1: and then go across the island put it on three

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Speaker 1: other people. And I think that's what you're gonna see

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Speaker 1: is those priorities are priorities of an entitled society that

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Speaker 1: needs that focus. But right now we need other focus

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Speaker 1: on our monetary policies. Wanning, you're gonna see fiscal policy

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Speaker 1: be instilled. You need a new task code, you need

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Speaker 1: you need a new health program, you need schooling. Our

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Speaker 1: foreign policy has got to be restabilized. You have an

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Speaker 1: opportunity for a man like Trump with a elegant foreign

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Speaker 1: service bureaucracy to change the fabric of how we deal

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Speaker 1: with the Middle East, of how we deal with China,

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Speaker 1: of how we deal with Russia. It's an opportunity and

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Speaker 1: it's going to take a very sophisticated team in order

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Speaker 1: to implement all of that at one time. You've watched

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Speaker 1: your your friend Donald Trump go through this here over

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Speaker 1: the last many months, and we have seen a lot

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Speaker 1: written about Jared Kushner, his his in law, as somebody

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Speaker 1: who was playing a very active role in the campaign

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Speaker 1: going forward, What kind of role do you see him

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Speaker 1: playing in administration? Significant? I mean, Jared is exceptional, as

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Speaker 1: is Ivanka and Donald's other kids. But Jared has a

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Speaker 1: a very refined mind, a very soft and consensual approach,

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Speaker 1: and most importantly, Donald trust, which for this president is

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Speaker 1: critically important. So I think Jared as an advisors, a confidante.

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Speaker 1: You'd have to ask Donald what what position other than that?

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Speaker 1: But for a young man, he has an old soul

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Speaker 1: and a very sophisticated mind. I assume you were at

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Speaker 1: the Hilton last night for for all the goings on

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Speaker 1: after the polls closed, there was a moment when Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: Beck and Rhyn's previous up to the stage gave him

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Speaker 1: a big hug. President Elect Donald Trump gave him a

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Speaker 1: big hug and thanked him for it. The symbolism was

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Speaker 1: not lost on me there. This has spented times an

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Speaker 1: uneasy relationship with the Republican Party officials. What's the importance

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Speaker 1: of party allegiance in light of the campaign that we've

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Speaker 1: seen here? Uh? Do people have as much allegiance to

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Speaker 1: their parties to be the Republican and Democrat going forward?

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Speaker 1: I think the truth Lanzers know and and I think

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Speaker 1: what happened in that alignment was um was a forced marriage.

431
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 1: And what you saw and Donald bring him up to

432
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: the stage was we did it you. You may have

433
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 1: questioned me getting us here, but I got us here.

434
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 1: And I think he is he You know what what

435
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 1: a capable head of a It's a hopeless tasking head

436
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 1: of the Republican Party under those circumstances when you have

437
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 1: a candidate that the party didn't even want in the

438
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 1: first place. Now, the man is exceptionally capable. He'd be

439
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 1: a great chief of staff. He could he could roll

440
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: over into and other pieces. But I think exactly as

441
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 1: you as you said, the definition of what is the party?

442
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 1: What is the purpose and do people really vote that

443
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 1: way anymore? I think it's a different game. Could you

444
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: bring rugby to America? I hope then? Then then at

445
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 1: least I could get something. Did you watch All Blacks

446
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 1: in Ireland the other day? Unbelievable. I don't know much

447
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: about it. You did it, you played it at USC

448
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 1: but it was extraordinary. It wasn't it was? And you know,

449
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: I look at the election kind of the same ways

450
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 1: what I loved about rugby. As you go out, you

451
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 1: you compete to the fullest extent known demandkind killing you

452
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:22,880
Speaker 1: and when that whistle blows at the end, they bring

453
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 1: out a keg, it's over. Yeah. What I don't get

454
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 1: is you've got a gorgeous face. How did your this

455
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 1: mut be all the money you got your I mean

456
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 1: you like it's perfect figure. Eyesight must be failing. Yes

457
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: it is, and it's I told Daily tom By so much.

458
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 1: Clearly in support, in an early support of your president elected.

459
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: He is a former governor of Minnesota. The hockey player

460
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 1: from South St. Paul Jim Polini, Governor, Good morning, Well

461
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 1: thanks for that introduction, particularly like that one. I was

462
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: thrilled to have you from our studios in Washington. It

463
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 1: is a different morning for Republicans in Washington. How do

464
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:17,360
Speaker 1: they adapt and adjust to their president elect? I think

465
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 1: fairly easily. I think most of the Republicans if you

466
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 1: look at their wish list, which is makes some progress

467
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: on the debt and the deficit, get tougher with respect

468
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 1: to immigration, make sure it's legal as opposed to illegal,

469
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 1: try to get some regulatory reform and relief, try to

470
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: better unleash of the American energy sector, fix or repeal Obamacare,

471
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: and more. And you line that up with most of

472
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: the Donald Trump's agenda. There's there's really good alignment, so

473
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 1: I think for the Republican Congress, and that's sort of

474
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 1: president You could see people get very busy in Washington

475
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 1: very quickly. Governor Polanta, you now helm the financial services

476
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 1: roundtable there in in Washington, d C. Your constituents, your

477
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 1: members are big investors, the heads of big companies. What

478
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 1: assurance are they getting this morning from the Trump campaign

479
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 1: about a path forward here once he begins the transition. Well,

480
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 1: he hasn't said a lot about financial services in detail,

481
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 1: but he said a few things over the course of

482
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: the campaign. Wondering the Republican Convention, they put a return

483
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: to Glass Stiegel the breaking up of investment and commercial

484
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: banking in the Republican platform, and his then campaign manager

485
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 1: embrace that. I'm not sure how vigorously he'll embrace that

486
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: as a president. He also said he wants to get

487
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: rid of DoD Frank or at least substantially overhaul it

488
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,880
Speaker 1: and try to uh create more lending opportunities. And so

489
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 1: that's hopeful from a industry standpoint. He attacked carried interest

490
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 1: specifically in a couple of junctures that really affects more

491
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 1: hedge funds than the regulated banks. The group that I

492
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 1: represent and lead. He's also talked about the need to

493
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 1: provide some relief for small banks and community banks in

494
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 1: particular midsize banks. So and the list goes on a

495
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 1: little bit, but but basically that's a list that is

496
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 1: pretty uh I think would be hopeful from the industry

497
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: feeling like that they've been overregulated in some respects. You're

498
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 1: in the information business, your lobbying, you're talking to lawmakers

499
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 1: about policy, what you'd like to see, what shape you'd

500
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: like to see policy take. From what you know of

501
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, from what exposure you've had to him here

502
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: over these last few months. How amenable is he to

503
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 1: listening to people like you amid the rhetoric, of course

504
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: of draining the swamp of Washington, d C. I think,

505
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 1: you know, there's a big difference between what you do

506
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 1: on the campaign trail and now the active governing. And

507
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be fair to say, based

508
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 1: on the arc of his life and what we saw

509
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: during the campaign, he's never going to be the kind

510
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,400
Speaker 1: of person who dives into policy details. So I think

511
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 1: he's going to set a direction in a tone, and

512
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: then try to trust people around him to build out

513
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 1: the details and move it forward. And so who he

514
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 1: appoints to these positions is going to be very telling

515
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 1: and very impactful and very important the governor. I mentioned

516
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 1: this morning, elections of eighteen hundred, of nineteen sixteen, and

517
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 1: of course the history of nineteen sixty. Uh. You are

518
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: a Catholic, but you have, with your wife, spent much

519
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:57,479
Speaker 1: more time within the evangelical movement. How did Donald Trump

520
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 1: gain the evangelical vote was some of the outrages of

521
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: this campaign. You lived it out in Minnesota. How did

522
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: he pull that off? I think Donald Trump is somebody

523
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 1: who benefited from his own charisma his own projection of

524
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: strength people wanted and perceived strength. And then there's a

525
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: whole bunch of people in this country who were either

526
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 1: afraid of being disenfranchised or were disenfranchised. And one group

527
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 1: of that where people who are concerned about their faith

528
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: and religious freedom, the future of the Supreme Court. And

529
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: while they may not have love Donald Trump's behavior at

530
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: certain chapters in his life, they were very much fearful

531
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: of what Hillary Clinton might do in that regard as

532
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 1: it relates to religious freedom, Supreme Court appointments, and the like.

533
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: And they realize those appointments in particular will last and

534
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 1: have an impact for twenty or thirty years, and so

535
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 1: they I think, we're willing to make some concessions and

536
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 1: realize it's an imperfect package, but on balance, they'd rather

537
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: have Trump for those reasons. Then Clinton, let's turn our

538
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: attention to your home state, the state of Minnesota. Donald

539
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,719
Speaker 1: Trump and his campaign saying and the days leading up

540
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 1: to the election that the campaign had a real shot

541
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 1: of winning that state doesn't look like that happened. But

542
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: what did he see in Minnesota? What did you see

543
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 1: him seeing in Minnesota there that that others didn't well

544
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: Minnesota has some characteristics of Wisconsin and some of the

545
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: other Iowa and some of the other Midwestern states, but

546
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 1: it also has some things that are you know, like

547
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: other parts of the country, like Boston, for example. So

548
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 1: we have a big med tech, high tech, more diverse

549
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: economy frankly than some of the other parts of the Midwest.

550
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 1: So it's a blend between some of the states that

551
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 1: went for Trump and some of the states that went

552
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: for Clinton. Clinton eked it out, but barely. It was

553
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 1: much much closer than people would have imagined, and he actually,

554
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 1: with a little bit more about boost could have potentially

555
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 1: won it. But Minnesota hasn't voted Republican for presidents since

556
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: Richard Nixon. Is the longest unbroken streak of any state

557
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: in the nation voting for Democrat for president, and in

558
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: part that's because Reagan won all the states and Monde

559
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: was on the ballot and he didn't. He carried Mondale

560
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: carried Minnesota governor there, former governor of Minnesota now c

561
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 1: of the Financial Services Roundtable in Washington, d C. Next

562
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 1: Ian Bremer joins us, of course it was a rasier group.

563
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 1: He is picking up the debris of the international relations

564
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 1: of your raisier group with a domestic focus today. Uh.

565
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 1: Dr Bremer, good morning to you. There was a moment

566
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: where Mexican Peso signaled Secretary Clinton would do what the

567
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: elite said, and then things and then things changed. Why

568
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: did they change at ten pm last night? Look, I

569
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 1: mean there's no question as comes to the shock to

570
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 1: everybody that was watching the polls. Um. You know, I

571
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 1: think what happened is not the structural issues aren't different.

572
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 1: It's just that they hit harder, right. I mean, you

573
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: have a population with a very strong anti establishment sensibility.

574
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: That's not just about democratic leadership, that's Republican leadership. Um,

575
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: it's the mainstream media. Uh. Those You have an economic rebound,

576
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 1: but a feeling that that rebound is not getting two

577
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: lots of people in the middle and working classes. Um.

578
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 1: And you also were running the most establishment candidate with

579
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: a lot of negatives that either side could have put forward.

580
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: Given all of that, the polls were still showing a

581
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: very significant Hillary win towards the end um and a

582
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 1: lot of it was it's about the question of turnout

583
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 1: and a lot of people not telling you what they're

584
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 1: planning on doing in the polls. Even given that the

585
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: United States demographics should have given you a different outcome

586
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: than what you saw in the UK. That just wasn't

587
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 1: the case. And uh and and now, of course you're

588
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: going to see a dramatically different US foreign policy in

589
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: the rest of the world. Remember, let's talk a little

590
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:46,680
Speaker 1: bit about that policy. We we we have a situation

591
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: in Syria that continues to worsen. We have fighting in

592
00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 1: most once again. We have a relationship with Russia that

593
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 1: is fractious, to say the least. What's at the top

594
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 1: of the agenda here for President elect Trump when it

595
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 1: comes to foreign policy, Well, uh, you know, the wall

596
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 1: is what he says is at the top of the agenda. Um,

597
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 1: but nobody really believes that it's going to get built.

598
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 1: I think the thing, the thing is that he talks

599
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: about and the constraints that he will face in foreign

600
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: policy will be very great. I mean, Obama was a

601
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: radical departure from Bush's foreign policy. And you know, if

602
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: you look at what Obama's foreign policy is actually accounted

603
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,640
Speaker 1: to over the course of eight years, you see that

604
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: in most cases it's not all that different. You still

605
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 1: have wars going on in Iraq, uh and Afghanistan, Guantanamo

606
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: is still open. Um, European relations aren't that great. Israel

607
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 1: Palestine hasn't gotten sex. I mean something's happened, of course,

608
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 1: and Iran you know. Um. But you know, if you

609
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: ask where Trump is going to matter most, He's gonna

610
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 1: matter most in terms of the fact that every single

611
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: US ally thinks that he's a disaster for their relationship

612
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: in the future, thinks that he's not committed to American alliances,

613
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 1: thinks he's not committed to American trade, thinks he's not

614
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: committed to American values. And so therefore you're going to

615
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: see an incredible amount of international hedging away from America

616
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: and not towards any single thing. It's an absence of

617
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,160
Speaker 1: American leadership and an absence of global leadership, and so

618
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 1: the Middle East in particular that means a lot more violent.

619
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 1: Interestingly enough, in Syria's the one place that's given his

620
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,800
Speaker 1: relationship his desire to have a closer relationship with Russia.

621
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 1: I do think the view will be as Sade isn't

622
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 1: going anywhere, there's a big win for assad Um and uh,

623
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 1: and let's just do what we can to get out

624
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:33,760
Speaker 1: and keep the fighting off. We continue with Ian Bremer

625
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 1: of Eurisier Group, David guru quickly, a dated check with

626
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: the tape improves particularly off where we were ten pm

627
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 1: in the midnight futures negative thirty dramatically worse earlier. The

628
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: down not negative four und negative three negative to thirty two.

629
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 1: That's quite an improvement. Just over eighteen thousand yields come in,

630
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 1: come in from where they were one point nine on

631
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: the tenure yield David ian Bremer. Last night we heard

632
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,320
Speaker 1: Donald Trump doing CONCILIU tory as best he could around

633
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 1: three o'clock in the morning when he delivered his speech

634
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: at the at the at the Hilton here in Midtown Manhattan.

635
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 1: He said that we would be willing to the U s,

636
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 1: would be willing to meet with with any countries, again

637
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 1: just emphasizing that he wants fair deals with them. Who's

638
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 1: going to lead his efforts to engage with other foreign

639
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: leaders around the world, Well, so far it's been his

640
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 1: son in law, Jared Kushner. He's the one that's actually

641
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: organized the meetings that Trump has had with heads of state.

642
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: He's been in those meetings individually, um and he is

643
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,280
Speaker 1: he does have a strong view on foreign policy. Clearly

644
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: wants to play a role. Um but in terms of

645
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 1: who's going to be the Secretary of State or who's

646
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 1: going to be, you know, sort of the Secretary of Defense.

647
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: I mean, frankly, there's no one that's been around Trump

648
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 1: that's considered radically credible on those issues. So either he

649
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 1: goes for a complete outsider, uh, he takes one of

650
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: his advisors that you know doesn't have experience on these points.

651
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, Lute gang Ridge would be an

652
00:35:55,840 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 1: obvious choice, um or, or you know you're gonna see

653
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 1: him reach out some of the Republican establishment and and

654
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 1: on foreign policy. Literally everyone in the Republican establishment has

655
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 1: said that this strongly opposed to the guy who you

656
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 1: put your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust

657
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four

658
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 1: trillion dollars. Why they see their role is to serve,

659
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 1: not sell. That's why Charles Schwab is committed to the

660
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: success of over seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately

661
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: dedicate themselves to helping people achieve their financial goals. Learn

662
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:52,359
Speaker 1: more and find your independent advisor dot com. David Garrow

663
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 1: with Tom Keane on the day after election Day two

664
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 1: thousand sixteen, the ninth of November. Looking at economic indicators

665
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:00,359
Speaker 1: here brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. It's time

666
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 1: to change the conversation. Talk with a broker dealer. Are

667
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 1: I a that's ready to listen? Call eight six six

668
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: four six two three six three eight or visit Commonwealth

669
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 1: dot com to learn more. Tom at ten o'clock to

670
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 1: the wholesale inventories wholesale trade sales coming out as weal

671
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: tomorrow looking ahead to initial jobless claim. Suffice to say,

672
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 1: the biggest economic indicator is Donald Trump President elect Donald Trump,

673
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 1: and the uncertainty surrounding that, who will be on his cabinet,

674
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 1: what his economic policy will look like. That's we're continuing

675
00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 1: to follow here this morning. And with that, I want

676
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 1: to bring in the honorable Dick Gephard, former Congressman, former

677
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 1: Democratic leader, joining us now by phone. He is now

678
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 1: the president and CEO of the Get Heart Group and

679
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:43,359
Speaker 1: Congression Gap hard Pring to bear your experience governing in

680
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 1: the minority when you have such a majority the other

681
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 1: party in Washington. You take us back to how useful

682
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: is it to look at that when you're when you're

683
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 1: looking at the way things took out last night, Well,

684
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 1: I think it is useful to look at history always

685
00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:01,799
Speaker 1: an experience. Uh. You know, that was tumultuous election. We

686
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: lost the House for the first time in forty years.

687
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 1: So it was a big devastating loss to Democrats, just

688
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 1: like this is today for Democrats. But it's a great

689
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 1: country and we have to move forward together and you

690
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: have to make decisions. And you know, I always remind

691
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 1: people that in that period after ninety four, you know,

692
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,800
Speaker 1: the Republicans shut down the government twice and they impeach

693
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 1: President Clinton. And in the midst of all that, we

694
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 1: were solving problems. We balance the budget, we got welfare

695
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: reform done. So you can do these things even in

696
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 1: the midst of lots of disagreement and difficulty. And that's

697
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: kind of the story of democracy. You know, it's a

698
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:51,000
Speaker 1: substitute for violence. Uh. You we put our ancestors, put

699
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 1: five and thirty five people in the room, not one,

700
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 1: and that means you've got to work hard every day,

701
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 1: but among that group and with the president to get

702
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 1: hard things done to resolve those inevitable conflicts that come

703
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 1: on policy between this vast diverse country. Congressman gap Hard

704
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 1: what happens to the anger that we have seen on

705
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:17,680
Speaker 1: the campaign trail here you mentioned with their proxies for

706
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 1: that anger, how does that play out? Well, it's a

707
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 1: real it's a real problem. But again, you have to

708
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: deal with what you've got. Um, there were a lot

709
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,879
Speaker 1: of grievances, in my view, that were expressed last night.

710
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 1: It's wrong, I think to make all this statements about

711
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 1: what was being expressed. I think a lot of different

712
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:43,720
Speaker 1: things were being expressed. Economic grievances, gender grievances, social grievances,

713
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: racial grievances, and and a lot of others. And and

714
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: so there was a lot of anger out in the

715
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 1: country for a variety of reasons that got expressed. The

716
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 1: people make the decision, and so the people that got

717
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 1: elected have a duty a responsibility to come to Washington

718
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: and try painstakingly, which it always is, to find compromises

719
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 1: they can allow the country to move forward. That's their job,

720
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 1: and that's what they need to do. Mr Goodhart. It

721
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 1: has been a tumultuous two weeks. I guess the election

722
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 1: counts is a smaller item than the Chicago Cubs winning. Uh,

723
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 1: And you know, I don't know what that means. To

724
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 1: a gentleman from St. Louis. But I give us a

725
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 1: perspective on how you are. And truly, your St. Louis

726
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 1: has changed over the years. It's changed America. It is

727
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: a different America. This was to happen, That was to happen.

728
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: All the pundit's got it wrong. How is your St.

729
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 1: Louis changed over the ensuing years. Well, there there's so

730
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 1: much change. It's it's hard to know where to start. Uh.

731
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: First of all, when I was growing up in the

732
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 1: fifties and St. Louis, it was you know, uh, midwestern

733
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: industrial town. We had big corporation headquarters. We had lots

734
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:06,280
Speaker 1: of jobs. My dad was a milk truck driver. Uh,

735
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 1: delivered milk door to door. Uh. He didn't get through

736
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 1: high school. And he used to always say to me,

737
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 1: you know you have clothes on your back. You have Uh,

738
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:18,800
Speaker 1: we're in the middle class, he used to say, because

739
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 1: I'm in a union that gets me fair wages for

740
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 1: my hard work. That was the world I grew up in.

741
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:29,440
Speaker 1: That world is gone, and now you're into a completely

742
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 1: different world. From all aspects. Our economy has changed dramatically

743
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 1: in the last four fifty years. Our information revolution is

744
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:47,359
Speaker 1: to me bigger than the Industrial Revolution, and that's changed everything,

745
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 1: disrupted everything, And and you've got a more multiracial society

746
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: than we had. Women have obtained many more abilities to

747
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: do things in the economy and in our society. So

748
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 1: there's a lot of, you know, really earth moving change

749
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 1: that's going on. And in a way, this this election

750
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 1: and pat some past elections have been a reaction to

751
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 1: a lot of that. We have a minute left only, sir,

752
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:21,320
Speaker 1: from our studios in Washington, how does your Democratic Party regroup?

753
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 1: What do you need to see from the present leadership,

754
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 1: Speaker Polosy and such Well. I think both parties are

755
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: faced with grappling with all of this change and the

756
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:38,800
Speaker 1: grievances that and so you know, in our primary for president,

757
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 1: we had the Bernie Sanders effect and that expressed a

758
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 1: lot of these grievances that are out there. And I

759
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 1: guess you can say, we've got to deal with that.

760
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 1: The Democratic Party has to get back in touch with

761
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:57,479
Speaker 1: working class Americans. They've got to really address I think

762
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 1: most importantly the Democrats a's have to be able to

763
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 1: address with the Republicans these urgent issues that are in

764
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 1: front of us. As a country and work with Republicans

765
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 1: as best they can to find those magic compromises that

766
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 1: allow us to move forward. He has Gobbard from St. Louis.

767
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 1: Mr Gobert, thank you so much from our studios in

768
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 1: Washington this morning. And you know this is remarkable, David.

769
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I just can't say enough about the guests

770
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,919
Speaker 1: we're having. They're truly the shock of this moment for all,

771
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: including the supports Mr Trump. Unexpected by many. But yeah,

772
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 1: we're gonna speak with another one. David mal passed me,

773
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 1: joined me shortly the moon Shot near North Carolina last

774
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: night from eighteen ish up to record weakness twenty five

775
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 1: zero on Mexican pay, so a little better recovery through

776
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,960
Speaker 1: the morning, give Mr Trump speech, etcetera. But we've just

777
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: had a new leg up and pay, so it'll be

778
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,200
Speaker 1: interesting to see if we break through the new weakness

779
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: for all Americans. I really can't convey enough a careful

780
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 1: read of always wonderful Michael Barone at the American Enterprise Institute.

781
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:20,240
Speaker 1: If you are the most die hard Bernie Sanders supporter

782
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: or a supporter of Secretary Clinton and obviously Republican, Peru's

783
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 1: his November five essay on royaltist royalist America. It is

784
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 1: really something he leaves no and no candidates unscarred joining us.

785
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:40,760
Speaker 1: Now we are honored to have with his secretary mail Pass.

786
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 1: Excuse me, I'm trying to get at, David, congratulations on

787
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 1: your economic instincts, in your persistency of advocating a Republican

788
00:44:56,000 --> 00:45:00,759
Speaker 1: party policy around the candidate you were del When did

789
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 1: you become a Trump supporter? I don't think I Tom,

790
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 1: good morning, and David um, I don't think. Uh, that's

791
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 1: the right way to think about this. Donald Trump is

792
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 1: very strongly knowledgeable about where he wants to take the country,

793
00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 1: and that's what drove this. It wasn't it wasn't people

794
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 1: creating the plan. It was him saying, look, remember the

795
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 1: knowledge of the tax code. The tax code is really

796
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:30,239
Speaker 1: screwed up. So that was the principal focus of of

797
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:32,799
Speaker 1: the of the campaign and so on down the list.

798
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 1: Someone have suggested if school taxes, maybe we would have

799
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:39,840
Speaker 1: been able to focus on the code. Okay, but school

800
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:43,879
Speaker 1: choice is a really important thing to Americans. He identified that,

801
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:47,240
Speaker 1: talked about it a lot and did these, uh lots

802
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 1: of addresses on policy change. So we ought to look

803
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 1: at it that way. Can he affect policy now that

804
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: the strategy has led to victory. I think so definitely.

805
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 1: And so look at the republic can House incident. That's

806
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 1: going to be a critical aspect of this. I liked

807
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 1: last night how he reached out to lots of people,

808
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 1: to foreign countries saying saying, we're gonna America is going

809
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:13,760
Speaker 1: to be fair for everyone. He reached out to rents previous,

810
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,840
Speaker 1: and so these were strong ways to bring people together.

811
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:20,799
Speaker 1: House and Senate will be critical in policy implementation. A

812
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 1: lot of stuff he can do through leadership, and Americans

813
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 1: in the exit polls yesterday, we're saying, above all, they

814
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:30,720
Speaker 1: want a strong leader, and he's showing that. And also

815
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,879
Speaker 1: I think UH showed a very good UH speech last

816
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,720
Speaker 1: night to bring people together. David Malpass, you have served

817
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:41,320
Speaker 1: in federal government, Donald Trump? No, no, please, you guys,

818
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 1: that's not right. We'll talk to tomorrow. Let's see what

819
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 1: the story is. You've served in government. Donald Trump very

820
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 1: proudly has not served in government. If you had a

821
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 1: few minutes with him to talk about what what he

822
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,360
Speaker 1: needs to know going into to running the federal government,

823
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 1: what would you say, Again, that's not the way it works.

824
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:00,879
Speaker 1: He knows a lot about how government operates. He's been

825
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 1: uh watching government and and thinking about how it should

826
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:07,800
Speaker 1: be done. He's already said that he wants a business

827
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 1: like government, that the way the government has been operating

828
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 1: is sloppy, it doesn't work, it's very costly. So we

829
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 1: know one of the things he'll want to do is

830
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 1: bring very qualified people into positions and allow them to

831
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:23,759
Speaker 1: operate the way he does in his business enterprises. We

832
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 1: joke about you being Secretary Maupasspeter, are you convinced here

833
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: that there are Republicans, establishment Republicans, others who will take

834
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 1: the call when Donald Trump calls offering them positions in

835
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 1: his government who may not have supported him here on

836
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 1: the campaign trail. I don't mean to be cynical, but

837
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 1: there are a lot of people who would like to

838
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 1: like to help who weren't helping before. And so I

839
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 1: think there is going to be a need for everybody

840
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 1: in the country to kind of pull together and with

841
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:53,439
Speaker 1: there are millions of people not in the labor force.

842
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 1: We've talked about this a lot, and that need jobs

843
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 1: need to be have, small businesses that create new investments.

844
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: Everybody has to pull together. You are the physicist from

845
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,240
Speaker 1: Colorado College. I want to not go over the physics

846
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,960
Speaker 1: of something complex. Steve Roach mentioned this yesterday before this

847
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: shocking election. David mel Pass explain the physics of dynamics scoring.

848
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: It's hugely controversial. People have beat you. Wilbert Ross and

849
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 1: others of Peter Navarro tell me why the critics of

850
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 1: male Pass dynamic scoring are wrong. Dynamic scoring simply means

851
00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 1: that the economy changes when you change policy. It's dynamic,

852
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 1: and so we know that if you put in a

853
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 1: better tax code, people are gonna work harder, they're going

854
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 1: to invest more. There's a divide in the party. Sometimes

855
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 1: Democrats say, oh no, people won't work more, they'll work

856
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 1: less because they're getting more take home pay. That's not

857
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:49,800
Speaker 1: actually the way it works. When you have lower rates

858
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 1: on a broader base, as Ronald Reagan did, you got

859
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 1: more business involvement and more hiring, more people that wanted

860
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 1: to advance, and the median income went up very rapidly.

861
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 1: That's dynamics your model that into the portfolio and into

862
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:11,040
Speaker 1: the plug ins and predictions CBO for just for example,

863
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 1: before the fact, or does President Trump and his administration

864
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 1: have to wait as everyone else does tell after the fact.

865
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 1: One way to do numbers is to say, if we

866
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 1: grow four percent, what happens to revenues? And so if

867
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:29,239
Speaker 1: you keep revenues constant as a percentage of GDP, as

868
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 1: you accelerate the GDP, it actually turns out that the

869
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,399
Speaker 1: debt to GDP ratio starts going down. If you then

870
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 1: project that to the business community, say, look, things are

871
00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 1: getting better from the government's debt standpoint, they're going to

872
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 1: invest more. And so you end up with a dynamic

873
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 1: business investment environment that creates jobs like crazy. So and

874
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 1: Mr Trump knew that from the beginning. He said, well,

875
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 1: it's not just four percent. There can be more than that.

876
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 1: I know there million jobs. The distinction here, using a

877
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:06,759
Speaker 1: phrase from President Obama, is the hope and audacity of

878
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 1: modeling the success before you get that payoff from fiscal policy.

879
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:18,239
Speaker 1: Exactly right. Well, but if you model uh, stagnation, then

880
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 1: businesses aren't going to invest. My current Forbes column, which

881
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:25,120
Speaker 1: is which I think is on newstands, says that straight out,

882
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 1: when you d do a shameless plug, like when you're

883
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: a secretary mailbost you just let it pass. Available on

884
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:36,280
Speaker 1: newsstands David belt Fast before before you went to Colorado Springs,

885
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 1: you were in you were in northern Michigan looking at

886
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:41,400
Speaker 1: the election results last night, Donald Trump carrying Michigan, the

887
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:45,439
Speaker 1: first time Republican has done that since he tapped into

888
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 1: something there. We were talking about the burden of expectations earlier,

889
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:52,240
Speaker 1: a lot of rhetoric here about Ford sending jobs to Mexico,

890
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 1: the carrier air conditioning company sending jobs out of the

891
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 1: country as well. You've got people now who are expecting action.

892
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:01,480
Speaker 1: How is Donald Trump going to deliver? Yeah, So I

893
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:04,440
Speaker 1: grew up in a very small town in in in

894
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 1: blue collar my uh in in iron iron foundry country,

895
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 1: and so it's very challenging for American workers to see

896
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 1: iron coming in from India castings that are landed in

897
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: Michigan at a lower cost than what could possibly be

898
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 1: produced in the US. And so that that Trump was

899
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 1: able to explain that to Americans that the system, the

900
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:32,320
Speaker 1: global government system that we've been operating under hasn't worked

901
00:51:32,320 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 1: for Americans. I think there can be constructive changes, And

902
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 1: he reached out to everybody in the world yesterday and

903
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 1: said let's make this work. Actually was Secretary male Pass

904
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 1: I want to know bring that. I want to bring

905
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 1: up one name. We're trying to avoid the uh, the

906
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 1: guessing of the administration, but there is one name to

907
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 1: the service nation. You and I know him quite well,

908
00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 1: and that is Roger Ferguson. Is it time for Mr

909
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 1: Ferguson to re enter the political maelstrom and serve the

910
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 1: nation again? He was a great FED vice chair. I

911
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 1: don't so, I really don't have comments on personnel. Um

912
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 1: there you know, uh. President elect Trump has said that

913
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 1: he's going to reach out to lots, to the best,

914
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 1: most talented. He used a Kennedy phrase, I think last night,

915
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 1: best and brightest to make the country grow again and

916
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 1: great again. And so certainly anyone who can contribute to that,

917
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 1: there is the need for them to do it, either

918
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 1: in their own business or in government. Both ways. We

919
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:40,320
Speaker 1: need a government that's working effectively for the American people.

920
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 1: We haven't had that and that can be repaired. David,

921
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 1: congratulations on the wisdom of this election. From the eyes

922
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 1: of the mel best. Just congrats to Trump worked. Think

923
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 1: how hard he worked every day for two years, giving

924
00:52:57,000 --> 00:53:00,319
Speaker 1: speech after speech to explain this to the biggest part

925
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 1: of the American public. You know, David Melpos, thank you

926
00:53:03,239 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 1: so much. Within SEEMA Global and an early supporter of

927
00:53:07,600 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 1: the economics of President elect Trump. It is a most

928
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:29,720
Speaker 1: odd market. It is uncorrelated, and its levels in search

929
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 1: of new levels yields eleven basis points higher one point

930
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 1: nine seven. As we mentioned earlier, the probability of that

931
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 1: action coming in decisively off the Bloomberg on December roughly

932
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 1: right now green on the screen, the dots sixty eight points.

933
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 1: But stocks going this way and that David Wilson, of

934
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 1: course mentioning the hospital stocks crushed off of thoughts on

935
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:56,080
Speaker 1: the Affordable Care Act. We afford a good time to

936
00:53:56,080 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 1: speak with Mohammed el Arian. It is wonderful to speak

937
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 1: to him, of course. Pub and the Ft a bit ago.

938
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:06,800
Speaker 1: Dr Larin, Good morning your book, When Markets Collide, Change

939
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:11,880
Speaker 1: the Language of Game Theory, page two eighty. Pascal's wager

940
00:54:12,640 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 1: applies to a situation in which there is a small

941
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 1: probability of an event that has an enormous consequence. Thank

942
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:25,280
Speaker 1: you for predicting the Trump election. Good morning Tom, Tom.

943
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:29,600
Speaker 1: It's it's just one of a long list of improbable,

944
00:54:30,200 --> 00:54:33,719
Speaker 1: if not unthinkables, that have become reality. And it's the

945
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 1: system telling us something, which is, if you run advanced

946
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:40,960
Speaker 1: economies at low speed for a long time, and if

947
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:44,959
Speaker 1: the low speed is non inclusive, things great. My chart

948
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:48,800
Speaker 1: of the year is real g d P down forty

949
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:52,360
Speaker 1: percent on a rate basis from four points some percent

950
00:54:53,040 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 1: to two point one back thirty years or so, and

951
00:54:56,800 --> 00:55:00,360
Speaker 1: it really speaks to the slowdown. What policy persu scryption

952
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:03,880
Speaker 1: can there be to jump start this economy to the

953
00:55:04,000 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 1: quoted Trump number of four percent. So the good news

954
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:13,239
Speaker 1: is there's pretty broad based consensus in the profession that

955
00:55:13,320 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 1: you need to move on four things. One pro growth

956
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:22,399
Speaker 1: structural reforms such as corporate tax reform, to a more

957
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:27,800
Speaker 1: balanced demand management including infrastruction, infrastructor spending on fiscal side.

958
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:31,920
Speaker 1: Three deal with the debt problems in Greece and elsewhere.

959
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:36,359
Speaker 1: And finally, better global policy coordination. So there with an

960
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:41,120
Speaker 1: engineering solution, it's whether the politics will implement it. You

961
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 1: grew up in a house of diplomacy, doctor l Arion.

962
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:48,440
Speaker 1: You have an esteemed British education or game theory is

963
00:55:48,480 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 1: a cottage industry. What should be the game theory of

964
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:55,720
Speaker 1: Mr Trump? As he moves from movement as he called

965
00:55:55,719 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 1: it in his acceptance speech to the reality of executing politics.

966
00:56:00,520 --> 00:56:05,160
Speaker 1: What's the change agent he needs within Donald Trump's game theory?

967
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:08,720
Speaker 1: So I think it's to move quickly in areas that

968
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 1: have an immediate positive impact and where there is broad

969
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 1: based agreement. So he has promised, for example, infrastructure spending,

970
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:22,800
Speaker 1: corporate tax reform, raising the tax on kine, interest the regulation.

971
00:56:22,920 --> 00:56:26,240
Speaker 1: If he moves quickly on this but refrains from moving

972
00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 1: on other things he promised, particularly protectionism, slapping tariffs on

973
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 1: China in Mexico, breaking up NaSTA. If he was able

974
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:38,520
Speaker 1: to do this combination and communicated as he did at

975
00:56:38,520 --> 00:56:43,160
Speaker 1: two thirty this morning in a consuliatory fashion, he could

976
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:46,640
Speaker 1: get moments. He could get positive moment two themes to

977
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:48,960
Speaker 1: speak of in our final minutes with you this morning.

978
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:53,560
Speaker 1: Can Prime Minister may avoid a hard Brexit? The language

979
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 1: of Parliament seems to be towards moderation. Is that feasible

980
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:02,600
Speaker 1: within the British system? Um? It is? It is? It

981
00:57:02,719 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 1: is feasible she can avoid a hart Brexit. Um right

982
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:09,920
Speaker 1: now things have moved towards a softer Brexit and a

983
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:14,279
Speaker 1: longer Brexit process, so clearly that there is a way out.

984
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 1: But the politics again are complicated, and we haven't even

985
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:21,480
Speaker 1: spoken about what's happening with the Italian referendum. Politics will

986
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:24,040
Speaker 1: remain a big issue on your show, Tom in the

987
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:26,280
Speaker 1: in the weecent months to come, we'll see that we

988
00:57:26,320 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 1: had wonderful perspective. Thank you to Richard House and Robert

989
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 1: Hormeance for perspective this morning. Finally, Dr Hilarion to your Egypt.

990
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:38,160
Speaker 1: The depreciation, the unpegging, if you will, of the Egyptian

991
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 1: pound was extraordinary. How does the LCC government, whatever you

992
00:57:44,000 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 1: want to phrase it as a government, how do they

993
00:57:46,480 --> 00:57:51,240
Speaker 1: deal with a black market Egyptian pound effect the effect

994
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 1: of that upon the people of Cairo in Egypt. So,

995
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:59,680
Speaker 1: first and foremost, they need to protect the most vulnerable

996
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:03,560
Speaker 1: segment of the population, and the program that they've agreed

997
00:58:03,600 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 1: to the i m F attempts to do that. Secondly,

998
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 1: they need to promote higher growth quickly and there are

999
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 1: the reforms. And thirdly they have to make sure that

1000
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:18,960
Speaker 1: the exchange system work works properly. Um this is probably

1001
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:23,000
Speaker 1: the most comprehensive reform program that Egypt has put together,

1002
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 1: and there's commitment from the very top to its implementation.

1003
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:28,440
Speaker 1: It's it's going to be really critical for them to

1004
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:31,440
Speaker 1: follow through and for them to get the external assistance

1005
00:58:31,960 --> 00:58:35,960
Speaker 1: that the program assumes, but doesn't it assume domestic reform

1006
00:58:36,040 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 1: as well? And can the LCC government do that? Can

1007
00:58:39,480 --> 00:58:45,160
Speaker 1: they domestically reform away from international rulemakers like Madame Legarde

1008
00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:49,000
Speaker 1: in the i m F. So what they're hoping to

1009
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:52,200
Speaker 1: do is to reform with the support of the international

1010
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 1: community UM and implement a program that they have stressed

1011
00:58:57,400 --> 00:59:00,920
Speaker 1: is designed in Egypt for Egypt, but needs to support

1012
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 1: of the outside world. That that is the approach, that's

1013
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:08,520
Speaker 1: that's being adopted, and we will see as as the

1014
00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 1: various components come together and whether that sustained or not.

1015
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 1: Duch Llarian, thank you so much, greatly appreciate Muhammeddlarian, folks.

1016
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:19,720
Speaker 1: I can't say enough about his more recent a book

1017
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:24,160
Speaker 1: is well and frankly becomes ever more interesting given the

1018
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:28,960
Speaker 1: political festivities of the last twenty four hours. Just truly

1019
00:59:29,080 --> 00:59:33,280
Speaker 1: truly extraordinary. Muhammadalarian, of course, writing off in for Bloomberg View.

1020
00:59:40,400 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

1021
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:49,880
Speaker 1: listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform

1022
00:59:50,040 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm out on Twitter at Tom Keene. David

1023
00:59:53,600 --> 00:59:57,280
Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can

1024
00:59:57,400 --> 01:00:13,840
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Who you put

1025
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:17,640
Speaker 1: your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust in

1026
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:22,040
Speaker 1: independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four trillion dollars.

1027
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 1: Why learn more and find your independent advisor dot com.