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Speaker 1: From the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg day

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Speaker 1: Break for Thursday, June fifteenth.

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Speaker 2: Coming up today, the Fed pauses for the first time

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Speaker 2: in fifteen months, but signals more rate hikes ahead.

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Speaker 1: Now it's the ECB's turn, with a policy decision coming

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Speaker 1: this morning.

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Speaker 2: A busy week of economic data continues. US retail sales

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Speaker 2: are two out.

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Speaker 1: And former President Trump holds onto GOP support in the

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Speaker 1: wake of his indictments.

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Speaker 3: The retired marine charge with putting a Manhattan subway writer

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Speaker 3: and a fatal choke hold has been indicted. Plus Texas

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Speaker 3: has sent a busload of migrants to Los Angeles. I'm

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Speaker 3: Michael Barr. Oh ahead, I'm John Stansh.

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Speaker 4: Edward's wards the Mets with a walk off win over

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Speaker 4: the Yankees, the US Open golfed t He's off today

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Speaker 4: in Los Angeles.

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Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business

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Speaker 5: news you need to sturn your day in just one

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Speaker 5: fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

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Speaker 5: Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 6: Good morning, I'm Nathan.

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Speaker 1: Hager and I'm Amy Morris. Here are the stories we're

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Speaker 1: following Today.

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Speaker 2: Investors are still digesting yesterday's message from the Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 2: The Central Bank did pause rate hikes after fifteen months

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Speaker 2: of tightening, but the move is being viewed as a

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Speaker 2: hawkish hold. Fed Shair Jaypal says he expects more hikes

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Speaker 2: will be needed.

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Speaker 7: Today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.

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Speaker 7: Nearly all committee participants expect that it will be appropriate

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Speaker 7: to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of

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Speaker 7: the year.

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Speaker 2: And jay Pale declined to say whether another hike could

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Speaker 2: come as soon as July, but he did emphasize it

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Speaker 2: will be a live meeting next month.

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Speaker 1: Pell faced the challenging task of explaining two contradictory policies,

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Speaker 1: deciding to leave rates unchanged while also indicating two more

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Speaker 1: increases this year. Apollo Management chief economist Torsten slog says

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Speaker 1: Powell did a good job walking that fine line.

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Speaker 8: They succeeded in what we expected namy delivering a hawkish.

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Speaker 6: Skip, because they did signal very stronger that more rate

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Speaker 6: hikes are coming.

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Speaker 1: Torson's lack at Apollo says traders are now betting on

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Speaker 1: two more quarter point increases this year. We also get

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Speaker 1: the view from Diane Swank, chief economist at KPMG.

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Speaker 8: This is a FED that is committed to additional rate hikes.

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Speaker 8: The tricky part of this pause or skip was messaging it,

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Speaker 8: and this was a very effective way to message. We're

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Speaker 8: going to assess what titaning is out there and how

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Speaker 8: much additional titaning is needed.

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Speaker 1: KPMG chief economist Diane Swank also expects the Fed to

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Speaker 1: raise rates in July and September.

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Speaker 2: Well, the Fed appears to have laid out a plan.

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Speaker 2: I mean, now we wait to see what the data

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Speaker 2: say in the coming month. Today we get the latest

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Speaker 2: reading on retail sales. Economists forecast a drop of two

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Speaker 2: tenths of one percent in May, and Bloomberg's Vinnie del

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Speaker 2: Judice has more.

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Speaker 9: The prior report showed April retail sales recovered from back

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Speaker 9: to back declines. Even so, Bloomberg Economics, as Americans are

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Speaker 9: becoming more discerning with their money. Higher interest rates are

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Speaker 9: taking a bite out of household finances. Inflation remains an

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Speaker 9: issue too, and then to sign us, businesses are bracing

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Speaker 9: for weaker demand. Cardboard bakshipments are falling. Also on today's agenda,

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Speaker 9: May industrial production, economists anticipate moderation. Vinie del Judeis Bloomberg

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Speaker 9: day Break, Thank.

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Speaker 10: You, Vinnie.

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Speaker 1: It's also a busy day for economic news overseas. The

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Speaker 1: European Central Bank makes an interest rate policy decision this morning.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to London and get details from Bloomberg's U

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Speaker 1: and Parts. Good morning Ewan.

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Speaker 11: Good morning Amy and Nathan. The ECB looks set to

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Speaker 11: deliver what could be its penultimate rate hike later today.

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Speaker 11: Economists overwhelmingly expect the deposit rates shared by the twenty

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Speaker 11: nations which use the single currency to be lifted by

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Speaker 11: twenty five basis points to three point five percent. The

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Speaker 11: focus for investors will be on the ECB's guidance as

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Speaker 11: to how much further they have to go in their

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Speaker 11: fight against an inflation rate still three times the bank's targets.

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Speaker 11: In London, i'm Une Parts, Bloomberg day Break.

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Speaker 10: Thanks Youwan.

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Speaker 2: In Asia, overnight, China's Central Bank was making moves ramping

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Speaker 2: up monetary stimulus to help spur the economy. And Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Daybreak Asia anchor Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong.

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Speaker 12: The action on new signs of weakness in May the

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Speaker 12: PBOC cut the interest rate on its one year policy

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Speaker 12: loans by ten basis points to two point six five percent.

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Speaker 12: That's likely to prompt the banks to lower their rates

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Speaker 12: as well. On data, industrial output rose three point five

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Speaker 12: percent from a year earlier, matching estimates, but down from

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Speaker 12: five point six percent. Retail sales gained twelve point seven percent,

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Speaker 12: but that missed an estimate as well, and fixed asset

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Speaker 12: investments slowing to four percent in the first five months

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Speaker 12: of the year also weaker than forecast. In Hong Kong

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Speaker 12: Bran Curtis Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 1: Relations between China and US are also in focus. Secretary

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Speaker 1: of State Anthony B. Lincoln departs for China tomorrow as

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Speaker 1: plans call for a two day trip aimed at stabilizing

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Speaker 1: ties between the two countries. Lincoln's last attempt to visit

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Speaker 1: China was derailed by that alleged Chinese spy balloon.

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Speaker 5: Bank.

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Speaker 2: Here in the US, amy presidential politics remaining focus. Former

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Speaker 2: President Donald Trump's legal troubles are dominating headlines, but they

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Speaker 2: don't seem to be derailing his support among republic Wilkins.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg z Ed Baxter has a look at the latest numbers.

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Speaker 10: The Quinnipiac University poll says, bottom line, he is still

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Speaker 10: the strong front runner for the nomination. The survey, conducted

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Speaker 10: mostly after the latest indictment, shows support from fifty three

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Speaker 10: percent of Republican and GOP leaning voters ron DeSantis with

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Speaker 10: twenty five percent. Now it should be noted that the

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Speaker 10: fifty three is down from fifty six percent last month.

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Speaker 10: Fundraising well, his campaign says since the indictment, the tills

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Speaker 10: have been fed six point six million dollars in San Francisco.

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Speaker 10: I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak, thank you ed.

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Speaker 1: As former President Trump continues his campaign, he's accusing the

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Speaker 1: Special Counsel of a double standard. Trump points to others

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Speaker 1: accused of keeping classified documents who haven't been prosecuted, like

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Speaker 1: President Biden and Hillary Clinton, but former resistant Special Watergate

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Speaker 1: prosecutor Nick Ackerman says there's really no comparison.

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Speaker 13: I mean, the people who are making these arguments, they

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Speaker 13: would be questioned about specific paragraphs in this indictment and

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Speaker 13: ask them if they're fine with somebody doing that fine,

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Speaker 13: telling their lawyer to move boxes to hide documents, if

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Speaker 13: they're fine with telling their lawyer to destroy documents.

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Speaker 1: Former assistant US Attorney Nick Ackerman spoke with Joe Matthew

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg's Sound and Catch That show weekdays at one

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Speaker 1: pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Time now to look at some of the other stories

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Speaker 2: making news in New York and around the world with

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Michael Barr.

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Speaker 3: Good Morning, Michael, Good Morning Nathan. A man charge with

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Speaker 3: a manslaughter for putting an agitated New York City subway

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Speaker 3: writer in a fatal chokehold, has been indicted by a

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Speaker 3: grand jury. Daniel Penny was charged by Manhattan prosecutors last

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Speaker 3: month in the May first death of Jordan Neely, who

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Speaker 3: struggled in recent years with homelessness and mental illness. Penny

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Speaker 3: earlier this week talked about the incident in a video

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Speaker 3: released by his attorneys.

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Speaker 7: The three main threats that he repeated over and over

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Speaker 7: was I'm going to kill you, I'm prepared to go

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Speaker 7: to jail for life, and I'm willing to die.

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Speaker 3: New York City trial attorney Brian Buckmeyer spoke to ABC.

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Speaker 14: It's the idea of being safe in the subway, the

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Speaker 14: ideas of mental health and potentially substance abuse in the subway,

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Speaker 14: and how these two ideas and these these themes kind

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Speaker 14: of intersect and asking the question where is the line.

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Speaker 3: Penny faces up to fifteen years in prison if convicted.

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Speaker 3: And there's another incident of a subway writer facing charges

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Speaker 3: after the death of another man said to be harassing

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Speaker 3: other passengers. Twenty year old Jordan Williams is facing manslaughter

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Speaker 3: charges and the fatal stabbing on board of Brooklyn bound

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Speaker 3: Jay train Tuesday night. The NYPD says a fight began

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Speaker 3: aboard the train in Manhattan. Police are reviewing cell phone

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Speaker 3: videos of a thirty six year old man who was

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Speaker 3: allegedly harassing subway riders as the train traveled to Brooklyn.

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Speaker 3: A group of migrants who arrived by bus and downtown

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Speaker 3: Los Angeles were sent from Texas. La Mayor Karen Bass

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Speaker 3: called the move a despicable stunt. Republican Governor Greg Abbott

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Speaker 3: has also been chartering buses to New York City, Washington,

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Speaker 3: d C, Chicago, and Denver. A New Jersey man is

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Speaker 3: lucky to be alive after he was struck by lightning,

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Speaker 3: official say thirty nine year old to Eric Bombgardner a

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Speaker 3: Woodbridge Township public works employee was painting lines on a

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Speaker 3: middle school soccer field when he was struck. His life

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Speaker 3: was saved by Woodbridge police officer Robert R. J. McPartland,

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Speaker 3: who was assigned to the high school right next door

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Speaker 3: and arrived within seconds.

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Speaker 15: Some burnmarks appeared on his hands, realized he didn't have

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Speaker 15: a pulse and began CPR. He was a parent that

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Speaker 15: he was struck by lightning. He was still holding one

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Speaker 15: of the machines. We were able to get that away

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Speaker 15: from him. When more units arrived. We were able to

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Speaker 15: get the AD hooked up to him and start breathing

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Speaker 15: for him.

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Speaker 3: Officer McPartland says. Bombgardner was rushed to Robert wood Johnson

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Speaker 3: Medical Center in New Brunswick for treatments twenty four hours

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Speaker 3: a day, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists

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Speaker 3: nantilists in over one hundred and twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr.

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Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Neither.

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Speaker 10: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 2: Ten half of the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you

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Speaker 2: by Trice State out Eat.

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Speaker 10: Good morning, John Stanshauer, Good morning Nathan.

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Speaker 4: The Mets, losers of nine of their last ten games,

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Speaker 4: did a lot of things wrong at Citi Field. Jeff

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Speaker 4: McNeil's throwing air allowed the Yankees to take the lead

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Speaker 4: seventh inning, and later in that inning they ignored Isaiah

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Speaker 4: Connor pileeff and when he was at third base they

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Speaker 4: let him steal home. Then a base running blunder by

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Speaker 4: Brandon Nimmo, and of the chance to retake the lead

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Speaker 4: in the bottom of the seventh, so the Subway Series

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Speaker 4: was still tied in the tenth.

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Speaker 6: The O one swinging a high drive hit Teep right

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Speaker 6: field hours back to the track at the wall.

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Speaker 10: It is off the wall. Escobar racing a round third

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Speaker 10: take you the turn.

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Speaker 3: The cutoff row from.

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Speaker 4: Hight center field.

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Speaker 3: Is cut in time.

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Speaker 1: Escovar slides it safely at third base.

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Speaker 4: With it came winning RBI trip on WCBS. Mets beat

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Speaker 4: the Yankees four to three. Mets were without reliever Drew Smith,

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Speaker 4: they have with a ten game suspension. Smith had been

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Speaker 4: tossed out a Tuesday's game before he threw a pitch

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Speaker 4: as umpires found the sticky stuff, just like what happened

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Speaker 4: to his teammate Max Scherzer and of the Yankees Domingo Herman.

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Speaker 4: The Oakland A's stunning seven game win streak is over.

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Speaker 4: They were twelve and fifty before the streak, and the

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Speaker 4: A's moved closer to Las Vegas with final approval by

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Speaker 4: the Nevada Legislator and public funding for a new stadium

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Speaker 4: on the Strip. US Open Golf Te's off today on

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Speaker 4: of course, it has not hosted any of the previous

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Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty two opens, so most of the

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Speaker 4: field unfamiliar with the La Country Club. The two betting

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Speaker 4: favorite for Scottie Scheffler and John Rahm, both with Morning

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Speaker 4: Tea Times Finney Jim Matt Fitzpatrick plays this afternoon. He'll

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Speaker 4: be with Dustin Johnson, and just after that a group

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Speaker 4: that includes Brooks Kepta and Rory McClory, Johns stash Ellend Bloomberg.

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Speaker 16: Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 16: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg

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Speaker 16: Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning.

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Speaker 16: I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 2: The Federal Reserve has hit the pause button on its

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Speaker 2: aggressive run of interest rate hikes, keeping policy on hold

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Speaker 2: for the first time. Since March of last year, but

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Speaker 2: Chairman J. Powell is sending a message to markets the

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Speaker 2: central banks fight against inflation is far from over.

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Speaker 7: Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 7: inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of

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Speaker 7: getting inflation back down to two percent has a long

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Speaker 7: way to go.

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Speaker 2: That was Chairman Palell at the news conference you heard

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Speaker 2: yesterday here on Bloomberg Radio following that decision to keep

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Speaker 2: rates on hold and for more. We were joined by

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg opinion columnist Marcus Ashworth. Marcus, what did you make

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Speaker 2: of the messaging from the chairman and the big shift

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Speaker 2: that we saw on the dot plot.

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Speaker 17: Well, let's start the last thing first. I don't believe

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Speaker 17: particularly in the dot plot. It's a bit more of

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Speaker 17: a horoscope and it changes around as the wind. As

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Speaker 17: the wind blows. I don't think Pow thinks much of

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Speaker 17: it either. So I just think the Feller done a

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Speaker 17: great job in talking out prospective rate cuts for this year.

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Speaker 17: They've somehow managed to do a pause and make it

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Speaker 17: incredibly hawkish. I don't really believe that. I don't think

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Speaker 17: the market on reflection really believes it either. Nonetheless, they've

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Speaker 17: given themselves what the precious thing they want, which is

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Speaker 17: the optionality going into the July meeting. You know, they

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Speaker 17: can pause again or they can hike. Uh and that's

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Speaker 17: at their sort of blessing. So that's I think all

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Speaker 17: they want. But they'll see a bit more data. There

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Speaker 17: are a lot more data. Actually there's probably less data

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Speaker 17: of importance coming up. But yeah, and get another CPI,

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Speaker 17: get another payroll number. I think the interesting thing, most

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Speaker 17: interesting by quite some way, is how power has shifted

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Speaker 17: on what the effects of wage rises are to inflation.

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Speaker 17: He's essentially said, from being the bad thing, the baddest

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Speaker 17: thing out there, it's now a good thing for the economy,

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Speaker 17: as in supporting the almost like a flaw for a

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Speaker 17: soft landing. Now, if we do get what's known as

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Speaker 17: immaculate disinflation, perhaps there is a soft landing there, and

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Speaker 17: it means they're less focused on wage rises as being

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Speaker 17: pushing forward for second round effects of inflation and keeping

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Speaker 17: inflation high. There it's still a concern for them, but

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Speaker 17: nowhere near I think as much a prime concern. So

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Speaker 17: in that sense, I think there's a subtle shift on

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Speaker 17: what they're looking at they're not going to be so

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Speaker 17: fixated on backward looking labor data, and that is good news.

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Speaker 13: Now.

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Speaker 2: That is really interesting because there has been so much

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Speaker 2: of a focus over the last several months on the

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Speaker 2: concern that wage pressures could be what's leading to the

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Speaker 2: stickiness that we're seeing in inflation. What do you think

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Speaker 2: the FED is seeing in the data now that could

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Speaker 2: be justifying that shift?

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Speaker 17: Well, it's almost is the prusality is potentially reversed. And

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Speaker 17: I don't want to get too technical here, but in essence,

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Speaker 17: everyone's saying high wage rises leads to future inflation. If

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Speaker 17: inflation is coming down as it is now quite sharply

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Speaker 17: and across a range of everything, but use to flies

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Speaker 17: as one percent, you know, CPI, I know is a

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Speaker 17: little stick in the month a month, but it's heading downwards,

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Speaker 17: and the headline certainly is then those drop off of

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Speaker 17: inflation expectations may in turn actually feedback the other way

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Speaker 17: and people demanding less of a wage rise, and that

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Speaker 17: in turn will actually see wage rises full off. So

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Speaker 17: it's sort of looking at backwards. Perhaps, I think they're

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Speaker 17: realizing that short term inflation expectations are driven by headline

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Speaker 17: inflation as much as indeed the second round effects feeding

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Speaker 17: through of Oh I've missed out and I'm poor I was,

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Speaker 17: and I demand at least an inflationary rizon. More so,

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Speaker 17: I think they're hoping that consumer expectations and some sense

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Speaker 17: work for them rather than work against them.

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Speaker 2: In the minute we have left here, Marcus, you've got

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Speaker 2: to look forward to the European Central Bank decision. I

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Speaker 2: think I saw on the Markets Live survey yesterday. Will

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Speaker 2: Madame Legarde be listening to Chairman Powell? What's your answer

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Speaker 2: to that.

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Speaker 17: I think she is very much listening. Whether she'll admit

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Speaker 17: to it, it's another thing altogether. I do think that

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Speaker 17: the FED mothership is by skillfully. You may I might

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Speaker 17: not think it's skillful, but compared to what we have

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Speaker 17: over here, the Fed's played this pretty well. I think

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Speaker 17: they've got themselves a pause. They've got themselves the optionality

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Speaker 17: the next time around. She's not able to do that yet,

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Speaker 17: I'm hoping against hope that she hints that maybe in

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Speaker 17: July again, a day after the FED is the FED

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Speaker 17: pauses for a second time. That enables the easy be

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Speaker 17: to relax a bit and not be hiking adnauseum every

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Speaker 17: single meeting because you know, maybe they can go to

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Speaker 17: once a quarter this time around, it's a quarterly economic review,

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Speaker 17: and the next one will be September. Maybe they can

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Speaker 17: skip July. It's probably hoping. It's hope. I think that

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Speaker 17: certainly in a signal they will intend to hike in July.

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Speaker 17: Whether they do or not, I'm hopeful they may see

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Speaker 17: reason that economy in Europe is already in recession. The

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Speaker 17: start of second quart of Jemmy isn't great. This is

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Speaker 17: not a time to be hiking rights.

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