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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody. Scott Bogman here for betting pros

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Speaker 1: to tell you about my favorite picks for Week four

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Speaker 1: of the college football season. Last week on the show,

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Speaker 1: we were one and two on the picks, three and

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Speaker 1: three on the player props. I have a lot more.

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Speaker 1: I feel like we've learned a lot through three weeks

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Speaker 1: of the season, so I'm feeling a little bit more

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Speaker 1: confident about some of these picks this week, So I

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Speaker 1: have more where you have eight straight picks and then

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Speaker 1: I have seven player props for you. So let's just

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Speaker 1: go ahead and start with the one that is tonight.

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Speaker 1: As you're watching this, number twenty four Illinois at number

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Speaker 1: twenty two Nebraska. The line is seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: I'm taking Illinois in this game. And look, I've got

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Speaker 1: in Nebraska and lost already once this season, So if

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Speaker 1: you want to fade me on my Nebraska picks, I

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Speaker 1: do understand this. But for me, this is a much

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Speaker 1: more tough opponent. This is a ranked Illinois team coming

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Speaker 1: in here. They've proven themselves against a good Kansas team

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Speaker 1: and what they've really done that I think. I think

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Speaker 1: we'll scare Nebraska a little bit and maybe Nebraska's just

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Speaker 1: not intimidated, but they have turned the ball. They have

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Speaker 1: forced nine turnovers on defense. So I think in a

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Speaker 1: freshman with a freshman quarterback in Nebraska in Dylan RelA,

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Speaker 1: who's been great. He's only thrown one interception. He's been

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Speaker 1: really solid. But the way this Illinois defense works, they're

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Speaker 1: bad against the run, they're pretty good at pass rush,

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Speaker 1: they're pretty good in coverage as well, so I think

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Speaker 1: that's going to funnel the Nebraska offense to run. Illinois

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Speaker 1: also hasn't had a lot of success running, They've had

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Speaker 1: a lot of success passing. I think maybe that will

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Speaker 1: keep them in this game, or if they get down,

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Speaker 1: their success in passing can bring them back in this game.

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Speaker 1: So the total I don't really want to mess with.

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Speaker 1: I would prefer the under if anything, But for me,

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Speaker 1: I like taking the points and taking Illinois currently seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. I got an eight and a half earlier,

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Speaker 1: but I like the hook still on it, So if

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Speaker 1: it gets below seven or two to seven, maybe I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't take it. But if you can get at seven

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Speaker 1: and a half, I still like it. Let's go to

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Speaker 1: USC at Michigan and I'm just gonna take I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take the USC side. I also like the under here

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Speaker 1: more so let's take the under. That's what we're gonna

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Speaker 1: go with here. It is currently forty four, which is

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Speaker 1: a low total, especially for a good USC team. You

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Speaker 1: can still get USC at minus five and a half,

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Speaker 1: and I lean that way pretty heavily. But my official

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Speaker 1: pick here is going to be on the under. And

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Speaker 1: that's because, look, I know, we saw Texas go in

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Speaker 1: here in tarrap Michigan, but that was an experienced veteran team.

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Speaker 1: This USC team is very good. We saw them beat LSU,

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Speaker 1: which was a big surprise. Right. Maybe ls isn't as

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Speaker 1: good as we thought, but they're still pretty good. So

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Speaker 1: for this USC team playing way better on defense, that's

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Speaker 1: really what gives me the confidence for the under here

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Speaker 1: is the fact that USC is playing so great on

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Speaker 1: defense and Michigan has been woefully awful on offense. So

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Speaker 1: they're switching quarterbacks, are going to Alex Orgi, which means

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Speaker 1: they're going to run the ball a lot. Maybe mission again,

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Speaker 1: we'll be able to impose their will on USC and

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Speaker 1: run the ball down their throat. That's why I'm not

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Speaker 1: officially taking USC in this one. I'd stick to the under,

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Speaker 1: but I do think Miller Moss is gonna this is

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Speaker 1: his first true road start in the big House with

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Speaker 1: all those fans there, So I think maybe in the

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Speaker 1: first half we get off to a rocky start on

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Speaker 1: offense for both of these teams. Ox Orgies first start,

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Speaker 1: Miller Moss's first big road game, So in the second half,

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Speaker 1: maybe we see a little bit more continuity from either side.

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Speaker 1: But for me, I like the under forty four in

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Speaker 1: this game because I think these offenses are going to

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Speaker 1: struggle against what it's turned into two really great defenses.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to UCLA at number sixteen. LSU. I'm laying

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Speaker 1: the points here. It has dropped. I got it earlier

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Speaker 1: at twenty three and a half. It's dropped to twenty

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Speaker 1: one at some books. So maybe just wait until Saturday

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Speaker 1: and see how far down this gets. But I think

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Speaker 1: UCLA is a complete mess. They barely were They barely

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Speaker 1: won in Hawaii. They were not competitive in the game

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Speaker 1: against Indiana, And maybe this is a correction game. Maybe

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Speaker 1: this is a wow we really got smoked at home.

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Speaker 1: We got to buckle down, we got to do all

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Speaker 1: of that. But I think LSU is too good in

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Speaker 1: an opponent. We saw them go into South Carolina and win.

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Speaker 1: I think USC is real strong that held tough with them.

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Speaker 1: I think because this game is in baton Rouge nus

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Speaker 1: Meyer and the offense are clicking. UCLA can't do anything

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Speaker 1: on third downs on either side of the ball, six

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Speaker 1: for twenty one on offense, thirteen for twenty six on

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Speaker 1: defense to one of ten teams that are allowing fifty

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Speaker 1: percent or better conversion on third downs to their opponent.

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Speaker 1: I know that maybe some people think that LSU is

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Speaker 1: one dimensional in their passing, but running back Kayden, the

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Speaker 1: freshman running back Kayden Durram Durham, excuse me, was excellent

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Speaker 1: against South Carolina, and I think they found their new

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Speaker 1: starting back. So I just really like what I saw

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Speaker 1: from LSU last week. I think that offense is clicking.

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Speaker 1: I don't think anything has been good for UCLA yet

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Speaker 1: this season. So, like I said, maybe this is a

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Speaker 1: over correction game for UCLA and we see them look

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Speaker 1: a lot better. But you know, they lost their coach,

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Speaker 1: they lost a lot of pieces, so I just really

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Speaker 1: don't think this is the same UCLA team that we

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Speaker 1: had last year. And I think they're pretty bad. So

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and take LSU at home and

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Speaker 1: lay the points. Let's go to I'm gonna bet against

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Speaker 1: USF again. And I know some of you may be

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Speaker 1: rolling your eyes. Maybe I'm a glutton for punishment, but

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Speaker 1: I think Miami is different than what Alabama brought to

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Speaker 1: USF right, And I think the big difference is the

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Speaker 1: fact that Jaln Milroe has a difficult time passing under pressure.

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Speaker 1: Cam Ward the quarterback for Miami through way of Washington State,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't. His grade under pressure is seventy eight point one,

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Speaker 1: which is almost as good as Jalen Milroe is in

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Speaker 1: a clean pocket of eighty two point eight. Miami's wide

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Speaker 1: receivers and running back positions are graded at as top

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Speaker 1: ten units. They are so good. I just don't think

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Speaker 1: that USAF can't do anything to slow down Miami. You

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Speaker 1: could do stuff to slow down Alabama by putting pressure

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Speaker 1: on JAA. Milrow forcing him into bad decisions. They also

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Speaker 1: slept walk through that game, right, Maybe Miami does that too.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they don't take USF serious, But after you just

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Speaker 1: saw them put the scare into Alabama, I think you

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Speaker 1: got in your on the road too. I think you

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Speaker 1: treat this as a business trip, and I think they

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Speaker 1: go down and take care of business in Tampa. So

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the points and take Miami. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: invest in the biggest game of the week, Tennessee minus

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Speaker 1: six and a half at Oklahoma. I like Tennessee in

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Speaker 1: this I like the under two. But I just think

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Speaker 1: that the big difference in this game. And look, you

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Speaker 1: know all the stuff that I said about Miller Moss

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Speaker 1: in the under, maybe you want to go the under here.

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Speaker 1: It's fifty six and a half. It's a big number.

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Speaker 1: So but for me, I'm taking Tennessee. And it's not

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Speaker 1: because you know Nico is gonna go on the road

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Speaker 1: here and maybe he has some struggles right that could

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Speaker 1: definitely happen. Tough start, But we know Josh Heipel is motivated.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma fired him. He wants revenge. He wants to put

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Speaker 1: up points in this game. They didn't lay off against

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Speaker 1: Kent State. They're doing this leave no doubt stuff, which

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Speaker 1: is great if you're taking them. The number now it's

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Speaker 1: minus six and a half. I got a little bit

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Speaker 1: earlier at minus five and a half. But the difference

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Speaker 1: in this game to me is the way the Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: offensive line is played versus the Tennessee defensive line. That's

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Speaker 1: the big difference. I think maybe Nico struggles on offense

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Speaker 1: and it's tough to score points, but I don't know

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Speaker 1: if Oklahoma is going to be able to do anything

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Speaker 1: on offense. I've looked bad so far this season, and

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Speaker 1: Tennessee has a strong defensive line eighth in pass rush,

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Speaker 1: fourth in run defense according to PFF. The old line

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Speaker 1: for Oklahoma sixty six in pass block one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty eighth in run blocking, and that's against not opponents

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Speaker 1: like Tennessee. Tennessee has one of the best defensive lines

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Speaker 1: in the nation. I think they imposed their will on Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: even on the road, and I don't think this game

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Speaker 1: is particularly close, So I'm going to take Tennessee and

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Speaker 1: lay the six and a half. There. A couple other

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Speaker 1: ones will go through quickly that I mentioned in my

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Speaker 1: article as well, but I just I like these games,

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Speaker 1: so I want to mention for you guys as well.

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Speaker 1: If you want more in depth, go check out my

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Speaker 1: article from a couple of days ago on betting pros

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Speaker 1: Arkansas State at Iowa State under fifty two In terms

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Speaker 1: of Arkansas State, the Michigan game hurts a small sample size,

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Speaker 1: but the eighteen points they scored against Michigan because of

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Speaker 1: those three turnovers is more than the last three games

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Speaker 1: against P four opponents. This is going to be a

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Speaker 1: lopsided game. This is Arkansas State at Iowa State under

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Speaker 1: fifty two. I think in this game it's just Arkansas

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Speaker 1: State doesn't have a lot on offense. Iowa State is

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Speaker 1: a very strong defense. Because we saw Iowa come out

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Speaker 1: firing right. They were great on offense in their first

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Speaker 1: game against Illinois State. They up to Iowa State and

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Speaker 1: they couldn't put up points. They couldn't move the ball.

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Speaker 1: I think Iowa State is a very good defense. I

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Speaker 1: don't think they're clicking on all cylinders on offense. So

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Speaker 1: far they are twenty twenty point five points per game

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Speaker 1: is one hundred and ninth. Arkansas State is middling for

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Speaker 1: their defense, is middling for the Sun Belt and the

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Speaker 1: weakest the Cyclones will have faced here. So I think

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Speaker 1: they win. I don't think they're putting up fifty two though,

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Speaker 1: and I don't know how many points Arkansas State scores zero,

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Speaker 1: twelve and three before that last game against Michigan last week,

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Speaker 1: and like I said, they got those off turnovers. You're

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Speaker 1: not gonna have those turnovers against Iowa State. So I

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Speaker 1: think this is a slogging slow game. I will take

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Speaker 1: the under fifty two in that one Virginia Tech versus

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Speaker 1: Rutgers over forty four. And this is a heavy run

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Speaker 1: offensive assault here. Both these offenses. Tech runs of fifty

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Speaker 1: three point six percent, Rutgers sixty two point nine percent.

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Speaker 1: So you know, you look at this game and you

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Speaker 1: think low scoring running battle. But these teams currently combined

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Speaker 1: to be three and two to the over this season.

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Speaker 1: They were fifteen to ten last year towards the over,

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Speaker 1: and this game last season scored fifty one points. So

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Speaker 1: the run defense on both sides has been bad. Rutgers

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Speaker 1: checking in at eighty six one hundred and fifty and

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Speaker 1: a half rushing yards allowed per game, bot Tech one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fourteenth, allowing one hundred and ninety point three

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Speaker 1: yards per game. The Virginia Tech stud running back Tuton

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Speaker 1: is questionable here, so maybe because of that a big weapon,

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Speaker 1: you wouldn't like this game to go over. But Malachai

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Speaker 1: Thomas or backup has a lot of experience at running

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Speaker 1: back over two hundred carries and twenty five receptions in

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Speaker 1: his career, So you know, I think this might be

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Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. Maybe a look at spot if Rutgers didn't

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Speaker 1: smoke them last year. They beat the breaks off of

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Speaker 1: Virginia Tech last year, so this is a revenge game

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Speaker 1: as well for Tech. So over forty four, I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're moving more towards the running game here

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Speaker 1: after it didn't work against Vandy, who has a good

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Speaker 1: rush defense. But I like the over there in my

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Speaker 1: last one, I'm going to go over. We're going to

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Speaker 1: follow this Texas Tech and over again. In this week

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Speaker 1: they're playing Arizona State, and just the Tech defense is

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Speaker 1: horrible one hundred and thirty one hundred thirtieth out of

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Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty four grated defenses according to PFF,

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Speaker 1: ninety third in run grade, one hundred and thirty first

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Speaker 1: in tackle grade, one hundred and thirty second in coverage grade.

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Speaker 1: They can't stop anybody. Arizona State has produced offensively in

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Speaker 1: its first three games against the top twenty five strength

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Speaker 1: to schedule so far this season, averaging thirty six point

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Speaker 1: three points, and they've scored at least thirty points in

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Speaker 1: every single game. So and I don't think Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: is getting slowed down. Their passing game is awesome. I

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Speaker 1: think they'll put up points. I like the over in

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Speaker 1: this game, so I'm chasing Texas Tech and over again.

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Speaker 1: And Washington State was too much for them. I don't

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Speaker 1: think Arizona State will be in. Arizona State will do

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Speaker 1: the heavy lifting here. I think they'll get most of this.

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Speaker 1: I will say, wait until Saturday to bet this game.

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Speaker 1: There's a chance of rain. It's already gone down. It

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Speaker 1: opened up I think at like fifty percent or sixty percent.

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Speaker 1: When I checked earlier this week it was forty percent.

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Speaker 1: I checked today right before recording this twenty three percent

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Speaker 1: chance up thunderstorms. So just check and make sure there's

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Speaker 1: no rain tomorrow, because it's Texas and the weather changes

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Speaker 1: on a dime here. So let me tell you, guys,

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Speaker 1: dollars bet and unlock two hundred dollars in bonus bets instantly.

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Speaker 1: and YouTube TV. Just go to Bettingpros dot com, slash

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Speaker 1: FanDuel to bet five dollars, get two hundred and stream

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Speaker 1: more football today only on FanDuel Sportsbook. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get to the player props that I like. And these

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Speaker 1: are mix in match, so you can bet any of

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Speaker 1: these if you want straight up, but these are you know,

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Speaker 1: underdog price picks. These a little bit mix and match.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna start with two rushing touchdown props. I

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Speaker 1: like for John Mattier, the Washington State quarterback who I

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Speaker 1: mistakenly called out last week and they won the Apple Cup.

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Speaker 1: So he looked great against Texas Tech. He looked great

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Speaker 1: against Washington's just a good quarterback. I think he's gonna

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Speaker 1: have a lot of Power four teams knocking on the

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Speaker 1: door here. But he's the number one run grade QB.

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Speaker 1: He has four rushing touchdowns this season. They're playing Jose

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Speaker 1: State and he had two touchdowns last week. I think

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Speaker 1: he's just hitting all cilders there. I'm also gonna go

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Speaker 1: with Nico Iamaliava rushing touchdown against OU. We talked about

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Speaker 1: that OU game. How I think you know there could

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Speaker 1: be problems scoring here. But Nico in his two games

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Speaker 1: against Power for opponents to Citrus Bowl last year, he

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Speaker 1: ran fifteen times, only twenty seven yards, but three touchdowns

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Speaker 1: and against NC State on the seventh of September eight

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Speaker 1: rushes sixty five yards and a score there as well,

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Speaker 1: So four rushing touchdowns in two games against P four opponents.

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Speaker 1: I like him to run into the end zone. This

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Speaker 1: one is not an underdog or price pick, so but

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Speaker 1: I like this total. It's darien mensa. Passing yards versus Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: close game. Here is what it's supposed to be. Two

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Speaker 1: lane is a two and a half point favorite. Fifty

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Speaker 1: three and a half is the total though, so a

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Speaker 1: high total mensa. He was nineteen of twenty nine for

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Speaker 1: three hundred and forty two yards, two touchdowns and a

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Speaker 1: pick against K State. Against Oklahoma, he just couldn't get it,

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Speaker 1: going only fourteen completions but thirty two attempts, so lots

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Speaker 1: of passing attempts in both games. Louisiana, they're one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventh and pass rush grade. There's sixtieth in coverage,

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Speaker 1: so middling, and those are grades against Kennesaw State and Grambling,

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Speaker 1: so going up against a good opponent in Tulane could

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Speaker 1: be tough. The line here for mensa two ur and

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Speaker 1: eight plus will pay you minus one fifteen. This is

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Speaker 1: on DK. I saw this. Two twenty five will get

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Speaker 1: you plus one forty two fifty you'll get you plus

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Speaker 1: two seventy. If you want to go for the swing

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Speaker 1: for defenses, two seventy five will get you plus five fifty.

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Speaker 1: I'll stick to that two eight to two twenty five range,

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Speaker 1: probably two twenty five to double up my money or

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Speaker 1: to get plus one forty. Excuse me. We talked about

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Speaker 1: how bad Texas Tech defense is so Arizona State quarterback

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Speaker 1: Sam Levitt. Uh. His underdog prop is two sixteen and

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Speaker 1: a half as of right now. If you wanted to

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Speaker 1: bet it straight not on you know a prop here

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Speaker 1: two seventeen or more will pay you minus one twenty

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Speaker 1: all the way up to two seventy five at plus

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Speaker 1: four to twenty five, So anywhere in there. I mean

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech's defense is bad. So uh, I think Levitt

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Speaker 1: will definitely do that. Montreal Johnson for Florida. His rushing

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Speaker 1: yard prop at Mississippi State is sixty nine and a half,

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Speaker 1: and we saw Cam Scattabo run for Arizona State against

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State thirty three times for two hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: two yards. Last season, Montreal Johnson split with Trevor Etn,

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Speaker 1: who has since transferred to Georgia. But this year the

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Speaker 1: split between him and his backup has been thirty three

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Speaker 1: for Johnson thirteen for Web, so it's way more in

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Speaker 1: his favor. We have QB controversy at Florida against a

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Speaker 1: weaker opponent. You're just looking for a win, especially after

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Speaker 1: a board of trustees meetings for billion Apier last week.

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Speaker 1: This should be run the ball a ton win the game,

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Speaker 1: get out with an easy dub here, and I mean

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Speaker 1: the lines go all the way up to one twenty,

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Speaker 1: which is plus six point fifty, but you can get

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Speaker 1: this double up at ninety plus plus two hundred. The

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Speaker 1: line is seventy two on DK I said a sixty

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Speaker 1: nine and a half on Price picks and then eighty

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Speaker 1: will be plus one thirty, So just anything in there.

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Speaker 1: I think Montreal Johnson gets a lot of rushing yards

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Speaker 1: in this game one four tonight. As you're listening to

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Speaker 1: this on Friday, am Man or for Stanford against Syracuse,

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Speaker 1: the line is sixty three and a half. Syracuse is

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Speaker 1: an eight and a half point favorite. The total in

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Speaker 1: this game is fifty six and a half as well.

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Speaker 1: So in this game, I just see Stanford probably playing

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Speaker 1: from behind and they're coming off of buy so is Syracuse.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know that there is like a strategical advantage.

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Speaker 1: But last year when Stanford had their bye week, they

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Speaker 1: schemed up Ama and or all week. That was this

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Speaker 1: huge game against Colorado where it went off for thirteen catches,

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Speaker 1: two hundred ninety four yards and three touchdowns. Now one

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Speaker 1: of those was a corner slip ninety seven yard touchdown.

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Speaker 1: Take that one away. Then twelve catches, two hundred yards

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Speaker 1: and two scores. So the line here sixty three and

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Speaker 1: a half is what we're looking at Syracuse against number

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Speaker 1: one wide receivers this season. Ohio they played coleman Owen

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Speaker 1: fifteen targets, ten catches, one hundred and thirty seven yards,

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Speaker 1: and then last weekends Georgia Tech or two weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: excuse me, against Georgia Tech Singleton, seven targets, five catches,

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Speaker 1: eighty six yards, So both went over the total Coleman

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Speaker 1: way over the total here, and you can get this

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Speaker 1: at seventy is plus one, twenty eighty is plus one

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Speaker 1: eighty ninety is plus to seventy, and it goes all

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Speaker 1: the way up to one twenty for plus eight hundred.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of options there for you to

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Speaker 1: take a manor in the last one, I'm going to

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Speaker 1: combine with cam Ward Xavier Restrepo. It's eighty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half receiving yards. Zepo was big in the Florida

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Speaker 1: game to start the year, seven catches, one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twelve yards in a touchdown. He got involved early against

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Speaker 1: FA Florida A and M in the blowout, he had

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Speaker 1: four catches one hundred and four yards in a score,

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Speaker 1: and then he scored twice early against ball State. In

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Speaker 1: the first half he had two touchdowns. He only had

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Speaker 1: forty seven yards in that game, but they didn't need him.

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Speaker 1: This game against USF should be tougher. I mean it

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Speaker 1: might be the toughest game they played. USF might be

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Speaker 1: better than Florida right now, so we'll see. But eighty

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Speaker 1: seven or more yards on DK is gonna get you.

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Speaker 1: Minus one twenty ninety plus is still minus one oh

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Speaker 1: five one hundred is where your first plus at one

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Speaker 1: thirty five one ten is plus one ninety and one

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Speaker 1: twenties plus two seventy. That one is probably more way

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Speaker 1: more of an underdog or price picks than a straight bet.

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Speaker 1: But there are options there, and that is it for me, everybody.

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Speaker 1: If you are on the Fantasy Pros Discord, I will

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Speaker 1: be there on Monday night to uh, you know, during

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Speaker 1: the late Monday night football game, to you know, play

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Speaker 1: the locker contest. It's a lot of fun. Come join

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Speaker 1: me and ask me whatever fantasy football questions you have

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Speaker 1: as well. But that is it for me. Follow me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter, app, bog and sports. Good luck this week

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Speaker 1: and I'll see you guys next week. Ticket ease everybody.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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Speaker 2: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

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Speaker 2: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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