Speaker 1: Good morning. I maybe Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here
Speaker 1: are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 2: We begin with oil rising to start the new year,
Speaker 2: Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea in an
Speaker 2: escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force
Speaker 2: comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy boats which
Speaker 2: we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day.
Speaker 2: Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University
Speaker 2: and says the two are clearly interlinked.
Speaker 3: Aaron is puppeteering Hamas, the Hoothy's and other movements like
Speaker 3: Hezbollah in the Middle East, and the houthy slogan indeed
Speaker 3: includes the words death to Israel and a curse on
Speaker 3: the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's more
Speaker 3: militant and extreme war wing.
Speaker 2: Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now, Nie makes
Speaker 2: crude oil up more than two percent or a dollar
Speaker 2: forty nine now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen
Speaker 2: cents a bit.
Speaker 1: Well, Amy, oil isn't the only thing on the move
Speaker 1: this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise, following
Speaker 1: through on last year's massive rally, and we get more
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton.
Speaker 4: It is up another four percent at the moment, at
Speaker 4: the highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand
Speaker 4: dollars for the first time in two years. This is
Speaker 4: due to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF,
Speaker 4: so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity.
Speaker 4: People looking for more technical levels for that one to
Speaker 4: keep going higher.
Speaker 1: And Bloomberg Joe Easton says Bitcoin has risen over twenty
Speaker 1: percent since has started December, as that January tenth deadline
Speaker 1: for the Securities and Exchange Commission to give its blessing
Speaker 1: for a spot bitcoin ETF dra us closer checking bitcoin
Speaker 1: right now, it's at forty five seven hundred dollars.
Speaker 2: Over in Europe's stocks are also higher to kick off
Speaker 2: the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Daybreak euro banker Stephen Carrol.
Speaker 5: Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the
Speaker 5: Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today.
Speaker 5: Shares and the shipping giant Marisk have risen after it
Speaker 5: stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours
Speaker 5: following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher
Speaker 5: oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making
Speaker 5: energy one of the best performing sectors on the Stock
Speaker 5: six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets
Speaker 5: which are out performing, boost it by a rise in
Speaker 5: bank shares. In London, Stephen Carrolt Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: All right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US,
Speaker 1: Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick
Speaker 1: off the new trading year, and we get a look
Speaker 1: ahead from Bloomberg Shirlie Pellett.
Speaker 6: The S and P five hundred index sits within striking
Speaker 6: distance of its first in two years. But a key
Speaker 6: challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy and
Speaker 6: corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments.
Speaker 7: The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving that,
Speaker 7: corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent.
Speaker 7: And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're
Speaker 7: not super expensive either in the markets right now.
Speaker 6: Among this week's earnings reports, Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots
Speaker 6: Alliance in New York Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: Thank you, Charlie. In twenty twenty three, some of Wall
Speaker 2: Street's biggest names got it wrong with their predictions for
Speaker 2: how markets would perform, So will they fare better? In
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than six hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take. Sam
Speaker 2: Potter is a senior markets editor for Bloomberg.
Speaker 8: Most strategists on Wall Street see the interest rate tykes
Speaker 8: of the past eighteen months to two years finally starting
Speaker 8: to bite economies generally around the world, stock slow, and
Speaker 8: that will kind of pre run a central bank pivot
Speaker 8: roundabout mid year.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see
Speaker 2: the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 1: In corporate news, Amy Chinas BYD may have just overtaken
Speaker 1: Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's still
Speaker 1: more than five hundred twenty six in fully electric vehicles
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John Lewis more from Beijing when.
Speaker 9: BYD Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's going
Speaker 9: to put this company into the consciousness of people around
Speaker 9: the world in a way that that company has not
Speaker 9: had ever before. The number two thing it does is
Speaker 9: it really underscores how dominant a position China not only
Speaker 9: as a market, but as a country with lots of
Speaker 9: companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China has
Speaker 9: in that industry.
Speaker 1: Now and Bloombergs John Lusa's Tesla is estimated to have
Speaker 1: delivered over four hundred and eighty three thousand in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter alone.
Speaker 2: Speaking of China, President Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen
Speaker 2: his country's economic recovery after a tough year. Bloomberg's Jenny
Speaker 2: Marsh has more from Hong Kong.
Speaker 10: This is Chi Jinping's new yas Eve's speech, and he
Speaker 10: normally uses it to so trumpet the achievements his nation's
Speaker 10: major in the year. And I think this speech really
Speaker 10: stood out for how candid he was being about these problems.
Speaker 10: It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggle that
Speaker 10: twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed
Speaker 10: in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty four for the economy. And he didn't
Speaker 10: really have any sort of quick fixes for that.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Jenny Mark says China is entering a pivotal period
Speaker 2: as policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in
Speaker 2: the property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to
Speaker 2: target a growth goal of around five percent again in
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Amy, the Biden administration has won another battle and
Speaker 1: its effort to try and slow Shina from building its
Speaker 1: own semiconductor industry. We get more with the Bloomberg's.
Speaker 11: Ed Baxter, ASML Holding is canceled shipments of some of
Speaker 11: its machines to China at the Biden request. This week's
Speaker 11: before the export bands on the high end chip making
Speaker 11: came into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship
Speaker 11: three top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but
Speaker 11: before the deadline it decided to cancel the orders. The
Speaker 11: US and allies have been trying to block access to
Speaker 11: the technology. Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank.
Speaker 2: You care in time now for a look at some
Speaker 2: of the other stories making news in New York and
Speaker 2: around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's
Speaker 2: Michael bar Good morning, Michael.
Speaker 12: Good morning, Amy The death toll has now climbed to
Speaker 12: forty eight. After a magnitude seven point six earthquake struck Japan.
Speaker 12: The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast.
Speaker 12: This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting
Speaker 12: to Yama when the quake hit.
Speaker 13: First. The trim had just done it very slowly, and
Speaker 13: everybody kind of left it off, you know, they thought, oh,
Speaker 13: this is this is kind of humorous, you know, on
Speaker 13: New Year's Day, and then then it is just a
Speaker 13: violent shape.
Speaker 12: The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks. A plane
Speaker 12: is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's
Speaker 12: Hanada Airport. Authorities say a large burst of fire erupted
Speaker 12: from the side of a Japan Airlines plane as a
Speaker 12: taxi on the runway. All of the three hundred and
Speaker 12: seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated.
Speaker 12: Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime
Speaker 12: Minister Benjamin Etnaho's contentious judicious overhaul before the October seventh
Speaker 12: to Maas attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul sparked
Speaker 12: months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional crisis
Speaker 12: between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The FBI's
Speaker 12: Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester, New York,
Speaker 12: to investigate a car crash that killed two people and
Speaker 12: injured five others outside of Performing Arts theater in the
Speaker 12: early hours of New Year's Day. The crash happened in
Speaker 12: front of the Kodak Center. It became a large scene
Speaker 12: due to a fire which had erupted as a result
Speaker 12: of the crash, and police also say several gas cans
Speaker 12: were found in and around the striking vehicle. Rochester Mayor
Speaker 12: Malik Evans I.
Speaker 14: Want to offer my condolences to those families, those individuals
Speaker 14: that lost their lives, and I asked the community to
Speaker 14: pay pray not only for those that have lost their lives,
Speaker 14: but also those that are injured.
Speaker 12: Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just
Speaker 12: a car accident or something far worse. New York City's
Speaker 12: effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses
Speaker 12: arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses
Speaker 12: from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at
Speaker 12: several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers
Speaker 12: are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison,
Speaker 12: New Jersey mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a
Speaker 12: major risk to health and security.
Speaker 7: The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is
Speaker 7: not to pawt it off to another mayor.
Speaker 12: Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you
Speaker 12: want it with the Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr,
Speaker 12: and this is Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Aamy all right, Thank you, Michael, And we do bring
Speaker 2: the news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio, and
Speaker 2: now you can get the news on demand whenever you
Speaker 2: want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the
Speaker 2: latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed
Speaker 2: on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg
Speaker 2: News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com
Speaker 2: plus Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: Time now for the Sports Report, brought to you by
Speaker 2: Tri State Audi. For that, we bring in John stash Hour.
Speaker 15: Thanks Amy Kevilo. Terrific gains of the college football playoff
Speaker 15: semifinals overtime at the Rose Ball after Michigan tie to Alabama.
Speaker 15: The lad touchdown in ot Wolverines had the ball first out.
Speaker 6: Of the shotgun. Paura McGain This tiny poussi.
Speaker 15: He's got the first out of more porm inside the five.
Speaker 11: Porm space is.
Speaker 14: Way across the goal line.
Speaker 2: Touch down Michigan seven.
Speaker 12: Take your touchdown.
Speaker 15: Run ESPN the call Michigan and stop BAMACB Jalen Milroe
Speaker 15: on a fourth down and one twenty seven to twenty
Speaker 15: JJ McCarthy through three TD passes, and then came the
Speaker 15: Sugar Bowl where Washington never trailed that at thirteen point
Speaker 15: lead been WITHY through the fourth quarter. Texas rallied had
Speaker 15: four chances to take the lead the final fifteen seconds,
Speaker 15: but ended the game with three incompletions on the Husky
Speaker 15: survive thirty seven thirty one. Their QB Michael Pennix Junior
Speaker 15: threw for four hundred and thirty yards. Championship game next
Speaker 15: Monday in Houston, both Michigan and Washington will go in
Speaker 15: fourteen and oh I Fiesta Ball, all Oregon forty five
Speaker 15: to six over a limitary vote next to five TD
Speaker 15: passes Sitters pull in Orlando, All Tennessee thirty five nothing
Speaker 15: over Iowa. LSU won the RELYA Quest in Tampa thirty
Speaker 15: five to thirty one over Wisconsin. Nicks happy to start
Speaker 15: the new year at the Garden after an ohen three
Speaker 15: road trip, they beat Minnesota, won twelve one to OH six.
Speaker 15: Julius Randall Port in thirty nine points. O g Onnobi
Speaker 15: made his next debut. He played thirty five minutes before
Speaker 15: found out. He scored seventeen in Toronto.
Speaker 6: RJ.
Speaker 15: Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team. Scored
Speaker 15: nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland.
Speaker 15: Outdoor Hockey in Seattle, crowd of forty seven thousand to
Speaker 15: see the Kraken shoutout Vegas three to nothing. John Stashwin Bricksport.
Speaker 16: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,
Speaker 16: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg
Speaker 16: Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Day Break.
Speaker 11: Good morning.
Speaker 2: I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week
Speaker 2: of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do most
Speaker 2: investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the
Speaker 2: same middle of the road scenario for the coming year,
Speaker 2: an economic slow down, a central bank pivot, and a
Speaker 2: late year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University of
Speaker 2: Akron and Dowment chairman and former publisher of the Gartman
Speaker 2: Letter to sort of set us straight on what we
Speaker 2: can expect for the coming year. Now, Dennis, the dollar
Speaker 2: closed out its worst year since twenty twenty, the S
Speaker 2: and P five hundred rose nine straight weeks. Are these
Speaker 2: trends bound to continue?
Speaker 17: I have my doubts to the latter trend will continue.
Speaker 17: I think stocks are extremely overbought. The market has risen
Speaker 17: on an anticipation of three, four, five six cuts in
Speaker 17: the overnight Fed Funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank.
Speaker 17: I have my doubts as to whether that will occur.
Speaker 17: I think that the Fed is done raising the overnight
Speaker 17: Fed funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether
Speaker 17: they're going to cut five or six times, I think
Speaker 17: is very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the
Speaker 17: fact that the Federal will delay any change in the
Speaker 17: overnight Fed funds rate lower to later this year. There's
Speaker 17: too much anticipation that the FEDERALI begin cutting the overnight
Speaker 17: funds rate by March. I think it'll be late in
Speaker 17: the summer, maybe early into the autumn before it happens,
Speaker 17: But we shall see. Time shall tell. I think stocks, however,
Speaker 17: are aggressively overbought, have been for some while, and it
Speaker 17: seems to me this looks very similar to what happened
Speaker 17: in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, when we reach
Speaker 17: the higher the market on the opening day of twenty
Speaker 17: twenty one and then ended up having a rather substantive
Speaker 17: decline in prices. So time shall tell. We'll see. But
Speaker 17: too much anticipation of too much easier possible abilities on
Speaker 17: the part of the Fed that I don't think are
Speaker 17: going to happen.
Speaker 2: Now, we have a job's report coming out on Friday.
Speaker 2: What are you watching for in that and how that
Speaker 2: might impact it?
Speaker 17: Long ago I quit anticipating the over the employment rates
Speaker 17: because of the fact that we tend to see such
Speaker 17: huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next.
Speaker 17: But right now the market is anticipating an increase of
Speaker 17: about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and
Speaker 17: eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that
Speaker 17: if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically
Speaker 17: revised reports of the year. Every month the revisions are
Speaker 17: forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So right now
Speaker 17: the market is anticipating one hundred and seventy five to
Speaker 17: one hundred eighty five thousand times.
Speaker 2: Shall tell Barkley is predicting a softest landing. Vanguard JP
Speaker 2: Morgan expecting a mild recession. But you know that's what
Speaker 2: everybody predicted for twenty twenty three as well. What's the
Speaker 2: difference now.
Speaker 17: I was one of the people that expected to see
Speaker 17: a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have
Speaker 17: not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest,
Speaker 17: the best of all kind of soft landings imaginable. I
Speaker 17: have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but
Speaker 17: that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices
Speaker 17: have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether
Speaker 17: whether it happens or not is up for debate. I
Speaker 17: have my doubts. Seriously, though we are over extended to
Speaker 17: the upside. We were long overdue on a recession because
Speaker 17: of the FED tightening monetary policy over the course of
Speaker 17: the past several years, and there's always law long and
Speaker 17: reasonable legs between the monetary policy and economic activity. And
Speaker 17: I think we be recessionary before the end of the year,
Speaker 17: but I don't think it'll be a substantive one. I
Speaker 17: think it'll be a very quiet one. Time. However, again,
Speaker 17: as I've said too many times already this morning time show,
Speaker 17: tell Yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Was about to ask you what kind of recession you
Speaker 2: were looking for. You're expecting a softest landing.
Speaker 17: Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one,
Speaker 17: a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before.
Speaker 17: But I think it'll be a very a very quiet
Speaker 17: and not anything like we saw in seventy three, seventy four,
Speaker 17: not anything like we saw in eighty one, eighty two,
Speaker 17: not anything like we saw in nine. But it'll be
Speaker 17: a recession, and it'll be a quiet increase in over
Speaker 17: in the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent
Speaker 17: before it's done.
Speaker 2: What do you see with oil and gold in this
Speaker 2: new year?
Speaker 17: Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I
Speaker 17: think gold wants to go from the lower left to
Speaker 17: the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while,
Speaker 17: and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly, it's
Speaker 17: heading about twenty one thousand before before too long, I
Speaker 17: think it goes to twenty two or twenty three thousand
Speaker 17: before the year is out. I have been very bearish
Speaker 17: on crude oil for a while because the term structure
Speaker 17: has been overly overtly barished, with the front month leading
Speaker 17: on the downside and failing to gain upon the back
Speaker 17: moths when the market when the market rallies. But now
Speaker 17: all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term
Speaker 17: structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching
Speaker 17: what's happening in the Gulf of so As. I think
Speaker 17: that's only gonna get worse, not better. And for the
Speaker 17: first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil.
Speaker 17: I'm starting to turn bullish of a Timeshall tell, but
Speaker 17: this is the first time in months that I've actually
Speaker 17: been have not been bearish on the crude oil market
Speaker 17: because of the changing nature of the term structure.
Speaker 2: You are listening to Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief
Speaker 2: on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington
Speaker 2: and beyond.
Speaker 1: Look for us on your podcast feed at six am
Speaker 1: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you
Speaker 1: get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: You can also listen live each morning starting at five
Speaker 2: am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero
Speaker 2: in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine
Speaker 2: sixty in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: Our flagship New York station is also available on your
Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Plus listen coast to coat on the Bloomberg Business app,
Speaker 2: Sirius Xmbiheartradio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Amy Morris.
Speaker 1: And I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for
Speaker 1: all the news you need to start your day right
Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Daybreak