WEBVTT - Middle East Tensions Escalate; Wall Street 2024 Predictions

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning. I maybe Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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<v Speaker 1>are the stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 2>We begin with oil rising to start the new year,

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<v Speaker 2>Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea in an

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<v Speaker 2>escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force

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<v Speaker 2>comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy boats which

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<v Speaker 2>we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day.

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<v Speaker 2>Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University

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<v Speaker 2>and says the two are clearly interlinked.

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<v Speaker 3>Aaron is puppeteering Hamas, the Hoothy's and other movements like

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<v Speaker 3>Hezbollah in the Middle East, and the houthy slogan indeed

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<v Speaker 3>includes the words death to Israel and a curse on

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<v Speaker 3>the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's more

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<v Speaker 3>militant and extreme war wing.

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<v Speaker 2>Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now, Nie makes

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<v Speaker 2>crude oil up more than two percent or a dollar

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<v Speaker 2>forty nine now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen

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<v Speaker 2>cents a bit.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Amy, oil isn't the only thing on the move

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<v Speaker 1>this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise, following

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<v Speaker 1>through on last year's massive rally, and we get more

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton.

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<v Speaker 4>It is up another four percent at the moment, at

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<v Speaker 4>the highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand

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<v Speaker 4>dollars for the first time in two years. This is

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<v Speaker 4>due to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF,

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<v Speaker 4>so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity.

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<v Speaker 4>People looking for more technical levels for that one to

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<v Speaker 4>keep going higher.

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<v Speaker 1>And Bloomberg Joe Easton says Bitcoin has risen over twenty

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<v Speaker 1>percent since has started December, as that January tenth deadline

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<v Speaker 1>for the Securities and Exchange Commission to give its blessing

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<v Speaker 1>for a spot bitcoin ETF dra us closer checking bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>right now, it's at forty five seven hundred dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>Over in Europe's stocks are also higher to kick off

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<v Speaker 2>the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Daybreak euro banker Stephen Carrol.

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<v Speaker 5>Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the

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<v Speaker 5>Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today.

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<v Speaker 5>Shares and the shipping giant Marisk have risen after it

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<v Speaker 5>stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours

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<v Speaker 5>following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher

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<v Speaker 5>oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making

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<v Speaker 5>energy one of the best performing sectors on the Stock

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<v Speaker 5>six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets

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<v Speaker 5>which are out performing, boost it by a rise in

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<v Speaker 5>bank shares. In London, Stephen Carrolt Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick

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<v Speaker 1>off the new trading year, and we get a look

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<v Speaker 1>ahead from Bloomberg Shirlie Pellett.

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<v Speaker 6>The S and P five hundred index sits within striking

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<v Speaker 6>distance of its first in two years. But a key

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<v Speaker 6>challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy and

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<v Speaker 6>corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments.

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<v Speaker 7>The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving that,

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<v Speaker 7>corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent.

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<v Speaker 7>And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're

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<v Speaker 7>not super expensive either in the markets right now.

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<v Speaker 6>Among this week's earnings reports, Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots

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<v Speaker 6>Alliance in New York Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you, Charlie. In twenty twenty three, some of Wall

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<v Speaker 2>Street's biggest names got it wrong with their predictions for

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<v Speaker 2>how markets would perform, So will they fare better? In

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than six hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take. Sam

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<v Speaker 2>Potter is a senior markets editor for Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 8>Most strategists on Wall Street see the interest rate tykes

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<v Speaker 8>of the past eighteen months to two years finally starting

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<v Speaker 8>to bite economies generally around the world, stock slow, and

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<v Speaker 8>that will kind of pre run a central bank pivot

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<v Speaker 8>roundabout mid year.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see

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<v Speaker 2>the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election.

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<v Speaker 3>Well.

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<v Speaker 1>In corporate news, Amy Chinas BYD may have just overtaken

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<v Speaker 1>Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's still

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<v Speaker 1>more than five hundred twenty six in fully electric vehicles

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<v Speaker 1>in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John Lewis more from Beijing when.

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<v Speaker 9>BYD Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's going

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<v Speaker 9>to put this company into the consciousness of people around

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<v Speaker 9>the world in a way that that company has not

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<v Speaker 9>had ever before. The number two thing it does is

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<v Speaker 9>it really underscores how dominant a position China not only

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<v Speaker 9>as a market, but as a country with lots of

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<v Speaker 9>companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China has

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<v Speaker 9>in that industry.

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<v Speaker 1>Now and Bloombergs John Lusa's Tesla is estimated to have

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<v Speaker 1>delivered over four hundred and eighty three thousand in the

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<v Speaker 1>fourth quarter alone.

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<v Speaker 2>Speaking of China, President Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen

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<v Speaker 2>his country's economic recovery after a tough year. Bloomberg's Jenny

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<v Speaker 2>Marsh has more from Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 10>This is Chi Jinping's new yas Eve's speech, and he

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<v Speaker 10>normally uses it to so trumpet the achievements his nation's

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<v Speaker 10>major in the year. And I think this speech really

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<v Speaker 10>stood out for how candid he was being about these problems.

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<v Speaker 10>It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggle that

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<v Speaker 10>twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed

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<v Speaker 10>in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead

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<v Speaker 10>in twenty twenty four for the economy. And he didn't

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<v Speaker 10>really have any sort of quick fixes for that.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Jenny Mark says China is entering a pivotal period

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<v Speaker 2>as policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in

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<v Speaker 2>the property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to

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<v Speaker 2>target a growth goal of around five percent again in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 1>Meanwhile, Amy, the Biden administration has won another battle and

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<v Speaker 1>its effort to try and slow Shina from building its

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<v Speaker 1>own semiconductor industry. We get more with the Bloomberg's.

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<v Speaker 11>Ed Baxter, ASML Holding is canceled shipments of some of

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<v Speaker 11>its machines to China at the Biden request. This week's

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<v Speaker 11>before the export bands on the high end chip making

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<v Speaker 11>came into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship

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<v Speaker 11>three top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but

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<v Speaker 11>before the deadline it decided to cancel the orders. The

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<v Speaker 11>US and allies have been trying to block access to

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<v Speaker 11>the technology. Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank.

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<v Speaker 2>You care in time now for a look at some

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<v Speaker 2>of the other stories making news in New York and

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<v Speaker 2>around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 2>Michael bar Good morning, Michael.

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<v Speaker 12>Good morning, Amy The death toll has now climbed to

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<v Speaker 12>forty eight. After a magnitude seven point six earthquake struck Japan.

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<v Speaker 12>The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast.

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<v Speaker 12>This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting

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<v Speaker 12>to Yama when the quake hit.

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<v Speaker 13>First. The trim had just done it very slowly, and

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<v Speaker 13>everybody kind of left it off, you know, they thought, oh,

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<v Speaker 13>this is this is kind of humorous, you know, on

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<v Speaker 13>New Year's Day, and then then it is just a

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<v Speaker 13>violent shape.

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<v Speaker 12>The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks. A plane

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<v Speaker 12>is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's

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<v Speaker 12>Hanada Airport. Authorities say a large burst of fire erupted

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<v Speaker 12>from the side of a Japan Airlines plane as a

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<v Speaker 12>taxi on the runway. All of the three hundred and

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<v Speaker 12>seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated.

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<v Speaker 12>Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime

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<v Speaker 12>Minister Benjamin Etnaho's contentious judicious overhaul before the October seventh

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<v Speaker 12>to Maas attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul sparked

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<v Speaker 12>months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional crisis

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<v Speaker 12>between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The FBI's

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<v Speaker 12>Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester, New York,

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<v Speaker 12>to investigate a car crash that killed two people and

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<v Speaker 12>injured five others outside of Performing Arts theater in the

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<v Speaker 12>early hours of New Year's Day. The crash happened in

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<v Speaker 12>front of the Kodak Center. It became a large scene

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<v Speaker 12>due to a fire which had erupted as a result

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<v Speaker 12>of the crash, and police also say several gas cans

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<v Speaker 12>were found in and around the striking vehicle. Rochester Mayor

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<v Speaker 12>Malik Evans I.

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<v Speaker 14>Want to offer my condolences to those families, those individuals

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<v Speaker 14>that lost their lives, and I asked the community to

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<v Speaker 14>pay pray not only for those that have lost their lives,

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<v Speaker 14>but also those that are injured.

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<v Speaker 12>Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just

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<v Speaker 12>a car accident or something far worse. New York City's

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<v Speaker 12>effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses

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<v Speaker 12>arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses

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<v Speaker 12>from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at

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<v Speaker 12>several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers

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<v Speaker 12>are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison,

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<v Speaker 12>New Jersey mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a

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<v Speaker 12>major risk to health and security.

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<v Speaker 7>The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is

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<v Speaker 7>not to pawt it off to another mayor.

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<v Speaker 12>Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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<v Speaker 12>want it with the Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr,

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<v Speaker 12>and this is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 2>Aamy all right, Thank you, Michael, And we do bring

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<v Speaker 2>the news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio, and

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<v Speaker 2>now you can get the news on demand whenever you

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<v Speaker 2>want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the

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<v Speaker 2>latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed

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<v Speaker 2>on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com

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<v Speaker 2>plus Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>Time now for the Sports Report, brought to you by

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<v Speaker 2>Tri State Audi. For that, we bring in John stash Hour.

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<v Speaker 15>Thanks Amy Kevilo. Terrific gains of the college football playoff

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<v Speaker 15>semifinals overtime at the Rose Ball after Michigan tie to Alabama.

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<v Speaker 15>The lad touchdown in ot Wolverines had the ball first out.

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<v Speaker 6>Of the shotgun. Paura McGain This tiny poussi.

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<v Speaker 15>He's got the first out of more porm inside the five.

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<v Speaker 11>Porm space is.

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<v Speaker 14>Way across the goal line.

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<v Speaker 2>Touch down Michigan seven.

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<v Speaker 12>Take your touchdown.

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<v Speaker 15>Run ESPN the call Michigan and stop BAMACB Jalen Milroe

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<v Speaker 15>on a fourth down and one twenty seven to twenty

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<v Speaker 15>JJ McCarthy through three TD passes, and then came the

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<v Speaker 15>Sugar Bowl where Washington never trailed that at thirteen point

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<v Speaker 15>lead been WITHY through the fourth quarter. Texas rallied had

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<v Speaker 15>four chances to take the lead the final fifteen seconds,

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<v Speaker 15>but ended the game with three incompletions on the Husky

0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:11.760
<v Speaker 15>survive thirty seven thirty one. Their QB Michael Pennix Junior

0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:15.000
<v Speaker 15>threw for four hundred and thirty yards. Championship game next

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<v Speaker 15>Monday in Houston, both Michigan and Washington will go in

0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:21.120
<v Speaker 15>fourteen and oh I Fiesta Ball, all Oregon forty five

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<v Speaker 15>to six over a limitary vote next to five TD

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<v Speaker 15>passes Sitters pull in Orlando, All Tennessee thirty five nothing

0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:29.480
<v Speaker 15>over Iowa. LSU won the RELYA Quest in Tampa thirty

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<v Speaker 15>five to thirty one over Wisconsin. Nicks happy to start

0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:34.319
<v Speaker 15>the new year at the Garden after an ohen three

0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:37.400
<v Speaker 15>road trip, they beat Minnesota, won twelve one to OH six.

0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:40.760
<v Speaker 15>Julius Randall Port in thirty nine points. O g Onnobi

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<v Speaker 15>made his next debut. He played thirty five minutes before

0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:45.920
<v Speaker 15>found out. He scored seventeen in Toronto.

0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:46.280
<v Speaker 6>RJ.

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<v Speaker 15>Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team. Scored

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<v Speaker 15>nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland.

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<v Speaker 15>Outdoor Hockey in Seattle, crowd of forty seven thousand to

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<v Speaker 15>see the Kraken shoutout Vegas three to nothing. John Stashwin Bricksport.

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<v Speaker 16>From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 16>Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 16>Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Day Break.

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<v Speaker 11>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week

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<v Speaker 2>of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do most

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<v Speaker 2>investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the

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<v Speaker 2>same middle of the road scenario for the coming year,

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<v Speaker 2>an economic slow down, a central bank pivot, and a

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<v Speaker 2>late year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University of

0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:40.640
<v Speaker 2>Akron and Dowment chairman and former publisher of the Gartman

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<v Speaker 2>Letter to sort of set us straight on what we

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<v Speaker 2>can expect for the coming year. Now, Dennis, the dollar

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<v Speaker 2>closed out its worst year since twenty twenty, the S

0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.920
<v Speaker 2>and P five hundred rose nine straight weeks. Are these

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<v Speaker 2>trends bound to continue?

0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:57.320
<v Speaker 17>I have my doubts to the latter trend will continue.

0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:01.400
<v Speaker 17>I think stocks are extremely overbought. The market has risen

0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:05.120
<v Speaker 17>on an anticipation of three, four, five six cuts in

0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:07.640
<v Speaker 17>the overnight Fed Funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank.

0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:09.920
<v Speaker 17>I have my doubts as to whether that will occur.

0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:12.480
<v Speaker 17>I think that the Fed is done raising the overnight

0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:15.200
<v Speaker 17>Fed funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether

0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:17.600
<v Speaker 17>they're going to cut five or six times, I think

0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.280
<v Speaker 17>is very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the

0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:23.319
<v Speaker 17>fact that the Federal will delay any change in the

0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.800
<v Speaker 17>overnight Fed funds rate lower to later this year. There's

0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:29.640
<v Speaker 17>too much anticipation that the FEDERALI begin cutting the overnight

0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:31.720
<v Speaker 17>funds rate by March. I think it'll be late in

0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:35.000
<v Speaker 17>the summer, maybe early into the autumn before it happens,

0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:38.000
<v Speaker 17>But we shall see. Time shall tell. I think stocks, however,

0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:41.640
<v Speaker 17>are aggressively overbought, have been for some while, and it

0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.040
<v Speaker 17>seems to me this looks very similar to what happened

0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:46.600
<v Speaker 17>in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, when we reach

0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:49.800
<v Speaker 17>the higher the market on the opening day of twenty

0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:53.119
<v Speaker 17>twenty one and then ended up having a rather substantive

0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.240
<v Speaker 17>decline in prices. So time shall tell. We'll see. But

0:12:56.320 --> 0:13:00.440
<v Speaker 17>too much anticipation of too much easier possible abilities on

0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:01.679
<v Speaker 17>the part of the Fed that I don't think are

0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:02.199
<v Speaker 17>going to happen.

0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:05.000
<v Speaker 2>Now, we have a job's report coming out on Friday.

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 2>What are you watching for in that and how that

0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:07.840
<v Speaker 2>might impact it?

0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:14.080
<v Speaker 17>Long ago I quit anticipating the over the employment rates

0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:17.480
<v Speaker 17>because of the fact that we tend to see such

0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:20.400
<v Speaker 17>huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next.

0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:22.959
<v Speaker 17>But right now the market is anticipating an increase of

0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:24.559
<v Speaker 17>about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and

0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:27.360
<v Speaker 17>eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:31.040
<v Speaker 17>if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically

0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:35.199
<v Speaker 17>revised reports of the year. Every month the revisions are

0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.079
<v Speaker 17>forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So right now

0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 17>the market is anticipating one hundred and seventy five to

0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:41.280
<v Speaker 17>one hundred eighty five thousand times.

0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:45.120
<v Speaker 2>Shall tell Barkley is predicting a softest landing. Vanguard JP

0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:48.800
<v Speaker 2>Morgan expecting a mild recession. But you know that's what

0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.600
<v Speaker 2>everybody predicted for twenty twenty three as well. What's the

0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:52.400
<v Speaker 2>difference now.

0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:55.719
<v Speaker 17>I was one of the people that expected to see

0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:58.680
<v Speaker 17>a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.280
<v Speaker 17>not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest,

0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:06.880
<v Speaker 17>the best of all kind of soft landings imaginable. I

0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:08.840
<v Speaker 17>have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but

0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 17>that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices

0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:16.040
<v Speaker 17>have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether

0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:18.560
<v Speaker 17>whether it happens or not is up for debate. I

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 17>have my doubts. Seriously, though we are over extended to

0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:25.440
<v Speaker 17>the upside. We were long overdue on a recession because

0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:27.640
<v Speaker 17>of the FED tightening monetary policy over the course of

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:32.600
<v Speaker 17>the past several years, and there's always law long and

0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 17>reasonable legs between the monetary policy and economic activity. And

0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:40.800
<v Speaker 17>I think we be recessionary before the end of the year,

0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 17>but I don't think it'll be a substantive one. I

0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:44.840
<v Speaker 17>think it'll be a very quiet one. Time. However, again,

0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.120
<v Speaker 17>as I've said too many times already this morning time show,

0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:48.360
<v Speaker 17>tell Yeah, I.

0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:50.160
<v Speaker 2>Was about to ask you what kind of recession you

0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:52.400
<v Speaker 2>were looking for. You're expecting a softest landing.

0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 17>Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one,

0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:58.800
<v Speaker 17>a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before.

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.360
<v Speaker 17>But I think it'll be a very a very quiet

0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.520
<v Speaker 17>and not anything like we saw in seventy three, seventy four,

0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:07.400
<v Speaker 17>not anything like we saw in eighty one, eighty two,

0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:11.800
<v Speaker 17>not anything like we saw in nine. But it'll be

0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.560
<v Speaker 17>a recession, and it'll be a quiet increase in over

0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:18.400
<v Speaker 17>in the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent

0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:19.200
<v Speaker 17>before it's done.

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.280
<v Speaker 2>What do you see with oil and gold in this

0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:21.800
<v Speaker 2>new year?

0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:25.680
<v Speaker 17>Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I

0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:27.280
<v Speaker 17>think gold wants to go from the lower left to

0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:29.360
<v Speaker 17>the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while,

0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 17>and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly, it's

0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:36.320
<v Speaker 17>heading about twenty one thousand before before too long, I

0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:38.160
<v Speaker 17>think it goes to twenty two or twenty three thousand

0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:41.240
<v Speaker 17>before the year is out. I have been very bearish

0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:44.000
<v Speaker 17>on crude oil for a while because the term structure

0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:48.080
<v Speaker 17>has been overly overtly barished, with the front month leading

0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:51.600
<v Speaker 17>on the downside and failing to gain upon the back

0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:54.120
<v Speaker 17>moths when the market when the market rallies. But now

0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:55.600
<v Speaker 17>all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term

0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:58.880
<v Speaker 17>structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching

0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:01.160
<v Speaker 17>what's happening in the Gulf of so As. I think

0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.600
<v Speaker 17>that's only gonna get worse, not better. And for the

0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 17>first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil.

0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:09.080
<v Speaker 17>I'm starting to turn bullish of a Timeshall tell, but

0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 17>this is the first time in months that I've actually

0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:14.440
<v Speaker 17>been have not been bearish on the crude oil market

0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 17>because of the changing nature of the term structure.

0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:21.600
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