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Speaker 1: Good morning. I maybe Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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Speaker 1: are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 2: We begin with oil rising to start the new year,

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Speaker 2: Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea in an

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Speaker 2: escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force

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Speaker 2: comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy boats which

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Speaker 2: we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day.

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Speaker 2: Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University

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Speaker 2: and says the two are clearly interlinked.

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Speaker 3: Aaron is puppeteering Hamas, the Hoothy's and other movements like

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Speaker 3: Hezbollah in the Middle East, and the houthy slogan indeed

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Speaker 3: includes the words death to Israel and a curse on

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Speaker 3: the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's more

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Speaker 3: militant and extreme war wing.

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Speaker 2: Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now, Nie makes

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Speaker 2: crude oil up more than two percent or a dollar

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Speaker 2: forty nine now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen

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Speaker 2: cents a bit.

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Speaker 1: Well, Amy, oil isn't the only thing on the move

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Speaker 1: this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise, following

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Speaker 1: through on last year's massive rally, and we get more

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Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton.

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Speaker 4: It is up another four percent at the moment, at

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Speaker 4: the highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand

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Speaker 4: dollars for the first time in two years. This is

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Speaker 4: due to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF,

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Speaker 4: so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity.

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Speaker 4: People looking for more technical levels for that one to

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Speaker 4: keep going higher.

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Speaker 1: And Bloomberg Joe Easton says Bitcoin has risen over twenty

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Speaker 1: percent since has started December, as that January tenth deadline

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Speaker 1: for the Securities and Exchange Commission to give its blessing

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Speaker 1: for a spot bitcoin ETF dra us closer checking bitcoin

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Speaker 1: right now, it's at forty five seven hundred dollars.

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Speaker 2: Over in Europe's stocks are also higher to kick off

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Speaker 2: the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Daybreak euro banker Stephen Carrol.

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Speaker 5: Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the

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Speaker 5: Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today.

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Speaker 5: Shares and the shipping giant Marisk have risen after it

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Speaker 5: stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours

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Speaker 5: following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher

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Speaker 5: oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making

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Speaker 5: energy one of the best performing sectors on the Stock

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Speaker 5: six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets

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Speaker 5: which are out performing, boost it by a rise in

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Speaker 5: bank shares. In London, Stephen Carrolt Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: All right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US,

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Speaker 1: Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick

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Speaker 1: off the new trading year, and we get a look

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Speaker 1: ahead from Bloomberg Shirlie Pellett.

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Speaker 6: The S and P five hundred index sits within striking

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Speaker 6: distance of its first in two years. But a key

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Speaker 6: challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy and

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Speaker 6: corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments.

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Speaker 7: The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving that,

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Speaker 7: corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent.

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Speaker 7: And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're

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Speaker 7: not super expensive either in the markets right now.

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Speaker 6: Among this week's earnings reports, Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots

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Speaker 6: Alliance in New York Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Charlie. In twenty twenty three, some of Wall

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Speaker 2: Street's biggest names got it wrong with their predictions for

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Speaker 2: how markets would perform, So will they fare better? In

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than six hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take. Sam

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Speaker 2: Potter is a senior markets editor for Bloomberg.

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Speaker 8: Most strategists on Wall Street see the interest rate tykes

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Speaker 8: of the past eighteen months to two years finally starting

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Speaker 8: to bite economies generally around the world, stock slow, and

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Speaker 8: that will kind of pre run a central bank pivot

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Speaker 8: roundabout mid year.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see

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Speaker 2: the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 1: In corporate news, Amy Chinas BYD may have just overtaken

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Speaker 1: Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's still

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Speaker 1: more than five hundred twenty six in fully electric vehicles

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Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John Lewis more from Beijing when.

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Speaker 9: BYD Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's going

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Speaker 9: to put this company into the consciousness of people around

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Speaker 9: the world in a way that that company has not

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Speaker 9: had ever before. The number two thing it does is

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Speaker 9: it really underscores how dominant a position China not only

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Speaker 9: as a market, but as a country with lots of

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Speaker 9: companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China has

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Speaker 9: in that industry.

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Speaker 1: Now and Bloombergs John Lusa's Tesla is estimated to have

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Speaker 1: delivered over four hundred and eighty three thousand in the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter alone.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of China, President Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen

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Speaker 2: his country's economic recovery after a tough year. Bloomberg's Jenny

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Speaker 2: Marsh has more from Hong Kong.

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Speaker 10: This is Chi Jinping's new yas Eve's speech, and he

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Speaker 10: normally uses it to so trumpet the achievements his nation's

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Speaker 10: major in the year. And I think this speech really

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Speaker 10: stood out for how candid he was being about these problems.

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Speaker 10: It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggle that

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Speaker 10: twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed

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Speaker 10: in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead

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Speaker 10: in twenty twenty four for the economy. And he didn't

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Speaker 10: really have any sort of quick fixes for that.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Jenny Mark says China is entering a pivotal period

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Speaker 2: as policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in

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Speaker 2: the property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to

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Speaker 2: target a growth goal of around five percent again in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Amy, the Biden administration has won another battle and

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Speaker 1: its effort to try and slow Shina from building its

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Speaker 1: own semiconductor industry. We get more with the Bloomberg's.

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Speaker 11: Ed Baxter, ASML Holding is canceled shipments of some of

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Speaker 11: its machines to China at the Biden request. This week's

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Speaker 11: before the export bands on the high end chip making

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Speaker 11: came into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship

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Speaker 11: three top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but

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Speaker 11: before the deadline it decided to cancel the orders. The

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Speaker 11: US and allies have been trying to block access to

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Speaker 11: the technology. Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank.

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Speaker 2: You care in time now for a look at some

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Speaker 2: of the other stories making news in New York and

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Speaker 2: around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's

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Speaker 2: Michael bar Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 12: Good morning, Amy The death toll has now climbed to

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Speaker 12: forty eight. After a magnitude seven point six earthquake struck Japan.

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Speaker 12: The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast.

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Speaker 12: This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting

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Speaker 12: to Yama when the quake hit.

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Speaker 13: First. The trim had just done it very slowly, and

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Speaker 13: everybody kind of left it off, you know, they thought, oh,

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Speaker 13: this is this is kind of humorous, you know, on

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Speaker 13: New Year's Day, and then then it is just a

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Speaker 13: violent shape.

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Speaker 12: The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks. A plane

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Speaker 12: is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's

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Speaker 12: Hanada Airport. Authorities say a large burst of fire erupted

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Speaker 12: from the side of a Japan Airlines plane as a

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Speaker 12: taxi on the runway. All of the three hundred and

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Speaker 12: seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated.

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Speaker 12: Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime

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Speaker 12: Minister Benjamin Etnaho's contentious judicious overhaul before the October seventh

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Speaker 12: to Maas attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul sparked

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Speaker 12: months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional crisis

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Speaker 12: between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The FBI's

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Speaker 12: Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester, New York,

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Speaker 12: to investigate a car crash that killed two people and

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Speaker 12: injured five others outside of Performing Arts theater in the

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Speaker 12: early hours of New Year's Day. The crash happened in

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Speaker 12: front of the Kodak Center. It became a large scene

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Speaker 12: due to a fire which had erupted as a result

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Speaker 12: of the crash, and police also say several gas cans

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Speaker 12: were found in and around the striking vehicle. Rochester Mayor

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Speaker 12: Malik Evans I.

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Speaker 14: Want to offer my condolences to those families, those individuals

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Speaker 14: that lost their lives, and I asked the community to

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Speaker 14: pay pray not only for those that have lost their lives,

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Speaker 14: but also those that are injured.

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Speaker 12: Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just

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Speaker 12: a car accident or something far worse. New York City's

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Speaker 12: effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses

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Speaker 12: arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses

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Speaker 12: from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at

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Speaker 12: several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers

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Speaker 12: are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison,

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Speaker 12: New Jersey mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a

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Speaker 12: major risk to health and security.

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Speaker 7: The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is

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Speaker 7: not to pawt it off to another mayor.

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Speaker 12: Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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Speaker 12: want it with the Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr,

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Speaker 12: and this is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Aamy all right, Thank you, Michael, And we do bring

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Speaker 2: the news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio, and

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Speaker 2: now you can get the news on demand whenever you

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Speaker 2: want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the

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Speaker 2: latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed

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Speaker 2: on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com

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Speaker 2: plus Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Time now for the Sports Report, brought to you by

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Speaker 2: Tri State Audi. For that, we bring in John stash Hour.

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Speaker 15: Thanks Amy Kevilo. Terrific gains of the college football playoff

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Speaker 15: semifinals overtime at the Rose Ball after Michigan tie to Alabama.

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Speaker 15: The lad touchdown in ot Wolverines had the ball first out.

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Speaker 6: Of the shotgun. Paura McGain This tiny poussi.

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Speaker 15: He's got the first out of more porm inside the five.

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Speaker 11: Porm space is.

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Speaker 14: Way across the goal line.

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Speaker 2: Touch down Michigan seven.

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Speaker 12: Take your touchdown.

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Speaker 15: Run ESPN the call Michigan and stop BAMACB Jalen Milroe

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Speaker 15: on a fourth down and one twenty seven to twenty

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Speaker 15: JJ McCarthy through three TD passes, and then came the

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Speaker 15: Sugar Bowl where Washington never trailed that at thirteen point

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Speaker 15: lead been WITHY through the fourth quarter. Texas rallied had

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Speaker 15: four chances to take the lead the final fifteen seconds,

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Speaker 15: but ended the game with three incompletions on the Husky

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Speaker 15: survive thirty seven thirty one. Their QB Michael Pennix Junior

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Speaker 15: threw for four hundred and thirty yards. Championship game next

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Speaker 15: Monday in Houston, both Michigan and Washington will go in

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Speaker 15: fourteen and oh I Fiesta Ball, all Oregon forty five

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Speaker 15: to six over a limitary vote next to five TD

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Speaker 15: passes Sitters pull in Orlando, All Tennessee thirty five nothing

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Speaker 15: over Iowa. LSU won the RELYA Quest in Tampa thirty

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Speaker 15: five to thirty one over Wisconsin. Nicks happy to start

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Speaker 15: the new year at the Garden after an ohen three

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Speaker 15: road trip, they beat Minnesota, won twelve one to OH six.

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Speaker 15: Julius Randall Port in thirty nine points. O g Onnobi

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Speaker 15: made his next debut. He played thirty five minutes before

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Speaker 15: found out. He scored seventeen in Toronto.

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Speaker 6: RJ.

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Speaker 15: Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team. Scored

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Speaker 15: nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland.

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Speaker 15: Outdoor Hockey in Seattle, crowd of forty seven thousand to

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Speaker 15: see the Kraken shoutout Vegas three to nothing. John Stashwin Bricksport.

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Speaker 16: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 16: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg

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Speaker 16: Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Day Break.

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Speaker 11: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week

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Speaker 2: of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do most

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Speaker 2: investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the

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Speaker 2: same middle of the road scenario for the coming year,

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Speaker 2: an economic slow down, a central bank pivot, and a

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Speaker 2: late year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University of

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Speaker 2: Akron and Dowment chairman and former publisher of the Gartman

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Speaker 2: Letter to sort of set us straight on what we

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Speaker 2: can expect for the coming year. Now, Dennis, the dollar

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Speaker 2: closed out its worst year since twenty twenty, the S

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Speaker 2: and P five hundred rose nine straight weeks. Are these

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Speaker 2: trends bound to continue?

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Speaker 17: I have my doubts to the latter trend will continue.

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Speaker 17: I think stocks are extremely overbought. The market has risen

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Speaker 17: on an anticipation of three, four, five six cuts in

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Speaker 17: the overnight Fed Funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank.

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Speaker 17: I have my doubts as to whether that will occur.

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Speaker 17: I think that the Fed is done raising the overnight

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Speaker 17: Fed funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether

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Speaker 17: they're going to cut five or six times, I think

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Speaker 17: is very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the

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Speaker 17: fact that the Federal will delay any change in the

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Speaker 17: overnight Fed funds rate lower to later this year. There's

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Speaker 17: too much anticipation that the FEDERALI begin cutting the overnight

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Speaker 17: funds rate by March. I think it'll be late in

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Speaker 17: the summer, maybe early into the autumn before it happens,

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Speaker 17: But we shall see. Time shall tell. I think stocks, however,

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Speaker 17: are aggressively overbought, have been for some while, and it

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Speaker 17: seems to me this looks very similar to what happened

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Speaker 17: in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, when we reach

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Speaker 17: the higher the market on the opening day of twenty

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Speaker 17: twenty one and then ended up having a rather substantive

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Speaker 17: decline in prices. So time shall tell. We'll see. But

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Speaker 17: too much anticipation of too much easier possible abilities on

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Speaker 17: the part of the Fed that I don't think are

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Speaker 17: going to happen.

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Speaker 2: Now, we have a job's report coming out on Friday.

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Speaker 2: What are you watching for in that and how that

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Speaker 2: might impact it?

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Speaker 17: Long ago I quit anticipating the over the employment rates

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Speaker 17: because of the fact that we tend to see such

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Speaker 17: huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next.

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Speaker 17: But right now the market is anticipating an increase of

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Speaker 17: about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and

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Speaker 17: eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that

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Speaker 17: if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically

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Speaker 17: revised reports of the year. Every month the revisions are

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Speaker 17: forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So right now

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Speaker 17: the market is anticipating one hundred and seventy five to

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Speaker 17: one hundred eighty five thousand times.

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Speaker 2: Shall tell Barkley is predicting a softest landing. Vanguard JP

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Speaker 2: Morgan expecting a mild recession. But you know that's what

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Speaker 2: everybody predicted for twenty twenty three as well. What's the

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Speaker 2: difference now.

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Speaker 17: I was one of the people that expected to see

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Speaker 17: a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have

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Speaker 17: not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest,

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Speaker 17: the best of all kind of soft landings imaginable. I

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Speaker 17: have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but

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Speaker 17: that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices

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Speaker 17: have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether

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Speaker 17: whether it happens or not is up for debate. I

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Speaker 17: have my doubts. Seriously, though we are over extended to

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Speaker 17: the upside. We were long overdue on a recession because

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Speaker 17: of the FED tightening monetary policy over the course of

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Speaker 17: the past several years, and there's always law long and

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Speaker 17: reasonable legs between the monetary policy and economic activity. And

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Speaker 17: I think we be recessionary before the end of the year,

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Speaker 17: but I don't think it'll be a substantive one. I

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Speaker 17: think it'll be a very quiet one. Time. However, again,

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Speaker 17: as I've said too many times already this morning time show,

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Speaker 17: tell Yeah, I.

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Speaker 2: Was about to ask you what kind of recession you

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Speaker 2: were looking for. You're expecting a softest landing.

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Speaker 17: Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one,

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Speaker 17: a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before.

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Speaker 17: But I think it'll be a very a very quiet

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Speaker 17: and not anything like we saw in seventy three, seventy four,

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Speaker 17: not anything like we saw in eighty one, eighty two,

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Speaker 17: not anything like we saw in nine. But it'll be

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Speaker 17: a recession, and it'll be a quiet increase in over

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Speaker 17: in the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent

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Speaker 17: before it's done.

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Speaker 2: What do you see with oil and gold in this

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Speaker 2: new year?

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Speaker 17: Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I

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Speaker 17: think gold wants to go from the lower left to

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Speaker 17: the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while,

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Speaker 17: and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly, it's

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Speaker 17: heading about twenty one thousand before before too long, I

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Speaker 17: think it goes to twenty two or twenty three thousand

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Speaker 17: before the year is out. I have been very bearish

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Speaker 17: on crude oil for a while because the term structure

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Speaker 17: has been overly overtly barished, with the front month leading

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Speaker 17: on the downside and failing to gain upon the back

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Speaker 17: moths when the market when the market rallies. But now

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Speaker 17: all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term

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Speaker 17: structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching

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Speaker 17: what's happening in the Gulf of so As. I think

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Speaker 17: that's only gonna get worse, not better. And for the

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Speaker 17: first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil.

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Speaker 17: I'm starting to turn bullish of a Timeshall tell, but

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Speaker 17: this is the first time in months that I've actually

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Speaker 17: been have not been bearish on the crude oil market

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Speaker 17: because of the changing nature of the term structure.

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