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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go there throwing in so.

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Speaker 4: I'm sitting it to cash stop.

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Speaker 2: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to wind.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 3: You want to pull.

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Speaker 4: And we are the way.

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Speaker 2: Well it's everybody, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 2: Week number nine betting preview. Today. Of course we'll build

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Speaker 2: our Sunday six pack of against the spread bets with

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Speaker 2: to help my co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 2: Stucky stuck, what's going on?

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Speaker 1: Go on?

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Speaker 4: Brother? I finally had something go right. It was the

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Speaker 4: first time all year at the end of a game

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Speaker 4: with the Jags scoring for a That was nice. But

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Speaker 4: this injury luck that I've had this year had some

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Speaker 4: really bad reads. But the jack saw seven starters during

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Speaker 4: the game, all three wide receivers. Too offensive line, I

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Speaker 4: mean crazy, And then unfortunately for you, Daniels ended up going.

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Speaker 2: I really I'm still the game, still it.

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Speaker 4: And uh they went on that Hail Mary unbelievably bad

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Speaker 4: coaching job. I mean, I mean you have Stevenson taunting

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Speaker 4: the crowd, and then you have one guy spying the

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Speaker 4: quarterback or spying the running back. The dumbest hail Mary

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Speaker 4: defense I've ever seen. But it's time to get hot.

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Speaker 4: Let's get into week nine.

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Speaker 2: All right, Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 2: Houston Texans at the New York Jets. Jets favored by

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Speaker 2: the total is forty two. Of course, the big news

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Speaker 2: for Houston is wide receiver Stefon Diggs out for the

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Speaker 2: season with a knee with a ACL injury. So the

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Speaker 2: Jets are favored in this spot. You know, the Jets

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Speaker 2: have been catching some weird luck, and you know I

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Speaker 2: had the Patriots as my moneyline dog on the show

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Speaker 2: last week, but man, the Jets just cannot catch a break.

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Speaker 2: Now they're favored. This still makes me nervous, even though

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Speaker 2: Houston's down some people on offense, because I just don't

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Speaker 2: know where the collective psyche of the Jets is at.

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Speaker 2: It's a short week. It's superior team usually wins on

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Speaker 2: a short week. The Texans are that even though they

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Speaker 2: aren't favored. So I lean Houston, what about you?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I might be on the Jets in some form offession,

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Speaker 4: waiting on their injury report, specifically on defense. They should

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Speaker 4: have all their corners, probably short ended at safety. I

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Speaker 4: don't doubt Mosley goes. But like, this is just a

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Speaker 4: classic spot. You know, you have a two and sixteen

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Speaker 4: who's been extremely unlucky. Everyone is just piling on you

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Speaker 4: had like got like your hot take artists on ESPN,

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Speaker 4: Like I think Mike Greenberg was like this is the

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Speaker 4: biggest colossal failure in the history of sports. It's like

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Speaker 4: people weren't just saying the Jets are going to win

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Speaker 4: the Super Bowl. There was a lot of questions about

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Speaker 4: this team, starting with how effective Rogers would be. But

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Speaker 4: you know they've they've dealt with some injuries, they've had

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Speaker 4: really bad luck. I mean Greg Zerlin, who going to

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Speaker 4: ir only can help them? These two for five and

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Speaker 4: fourth quarter field goals one of four when the games

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Speaker 4: within three points and the Jets are what. They've lost

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Speaker 4: five straight and four of them have been by one possession.

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Speaker 4: The one blow out loss was actually pretty unlucky against Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 4: I mean they had every single member of their secondary

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Speaker 4: go down a couple bad bounces in that game as well,

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Speaker 4: But they could have beat the Bills. They should have

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Speaker 4: beat the Patriots last week. I mean they dominated that game.

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Speaker 4: I mean, since nineteen thirty three, teams were seven hundred

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Speaker 4: and fifty and zero when scoring twenty plus, committing no turnovers,

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Speaker 4: and allowing fewer than two hundred fifty yards. They're now

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Speaker 4: seven hundred and fifty and one. After the Jets lost

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Speaker 4: that game in New England. I mean just dominated the game. Statistically.

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Speaker 4: Horrible coaching, just like delay of games at the worst

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Speaker 4: possible times, time out management. They are a poorly coached team,

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Speaker 4: but you know they could. They had a chance to

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Speaker 4: beat the Vikings, they had a chance to beat the Broncos.

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Speaker 4: And then you look at the Texans. They're on the

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Speaker 4: opposite end of the spectrum. They're six and two, but

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Speaker 4: they haven't really been that impressive. I mean, this is

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Speaker 4: a team with a plus nine point differential plus nine

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Speaker 4: and they're six and two, so you know, and it's

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Speaker 4: they're like, they don't have the most impressive wins. They

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Speaker 4: beat the Colts twice, the Bears they're most impressive, winning

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Speaker 4: to get the Bills by three, that beat the Jags.

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Speaker 4: The Patriots like team's not really playing well if they're

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Speaker 4: early down play calling has not been great, they're bottom five,

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Speaker 4: and success rate the offensive line hasn't been great. Now

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Speaker 4: you don't have Nico Collins, your offense is night and

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Speaker 4: day with him in the lineup. On top of that,

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Speaker 4: you lose Diggs. So you know, how is this team

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Speaker 4: consistently going to move the ball? I have serious questions.

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Speaker 4: You're you got well you're gonna have in there now

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Speaker 4: Hutchinson and Robert Woods. It's you gotta rely on Tank

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Speaker 4: Dell and Dalton Schultz. It's not a great situation right

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Speaker 4: now for the Texans. I think that they're a bit overvalued,

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Speaker 4: and I think that this line is close to about

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Speaker 4: right market wise, because if you look these two teams

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Speaker 4: have played the Patriots in recent weeks in New England,

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Speaker 4: they were both around a seven point favorite. I know

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Speaker 4: the Jets lost, but they dominated the game statistically. The

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Speaker 4: Texans have lost, you know, have not lost Dell on

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Speaker 4: top of Collins. You have a cluster injury digs on

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Speaker 4: top of Collins. So yeah, I I the spot screams

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Speaker 4: to me, it's it's the Jets. So I might be

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Speaker 4: on them in some fashion, but you know, it's not

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Speaker 4: a huge bet. And I hate there's a night football,

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Speaker 4: but classic you know, bilos sell high. With the unlucky

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Speaker 4: team at home against the lucky team dealing with important

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Speaker 4: injuries at wide receiver, I think the Jets are going

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Speaker 4: to find a way here and have their luck turn.

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Speaker 2: I don't like a couple of things in this matchup.

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Speaker 2: Number one, you mentioned the kicker. It's an outdoor game.

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Speaker 2: It's not going to be their line, but it's going

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Speaker 2: to be either Spencer Straighter or Riley Patterson. So if

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Speaker 2: it's Patterson, that kind of restricts what you can do

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Speaker 2: long range, and in a close game that could come

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Speaker 2: back to haunt you. I also don't like that Houston

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Speaker 2: has its running game going right now, because that was

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Speaker 2: something we've talked about. They didn't have at points in

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Speaker 2: this year with Joe Mixon, and that is one way

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Speaker 2: you beat the Jets on the ground, and I think

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Speaker 2: that that combined with the coach and I still lean

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Speaker 2: usedon especially with them getting points.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the early down playcalls are bad for Houston

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Speaker 4: and this is just not the same offense. Forget Dicks

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Speaker 4: without Collins and outdoors, they have just not performed anywhere

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Speaker 4: close to what we've seen both at home and when

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Speaker 4: Collins is in the lineup. So I lean Jets, but

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Speaker 4: waiting on the injury report won't be a big bet.

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Speaker 2: Now it's time for our NFL Week nine Sunday six

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Speaker 2: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: Last week both of us went one and two. That

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Speaker 2: that Hail Mary really came back to haunt me.

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Speaker 4: F I'm so mad at the Dolphins up ten with

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Speaker 4: the ball in the second half in control and they

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Speaker 4: snap over their head safety and then a touchdown and

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Speaker 4: then it was like I was rooting for them to lose.

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Speaker 4: The game got on two and I was like, I'm

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Speaker 4: laying three here. I hope they lose out right, which

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Speaker 4: they did.

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Speaker 2: I'm up thirty two to fifteen. The good news is stuck.

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Speaker 2: You did gain a point on you last week. Wow,

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Speaker 2: So so that's some work to do. But where are

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Speaker 2: you going first?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I gotta put some sweeps together. For my first

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Speaker 4: pick of the Week nine Sunday six Pack, I'm going

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Speaker 4: with the Baltimore Ravens first half minus five and a

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Speaker 4: half out there. I look, this is a great spot

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Speaker 4: to buy the Ravens in my opinion. First of all,

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Speaker 4: just off the bat. Lamar Jackson is a first half machine.

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Speaker 4: In his career is fifty four to twenty nine and

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Speaker 4: two against friend the first half, sixty five point one percent.

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Speaker 4: Most profitable quarterback in NFL history. He's covering by over

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Speaker 4: a field goal per game in the first half. That's insane,

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Speaker 4: sample sizes almost one hundred games. How about as a

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Speaker 4: favor even better, forty six to twenty three and two

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Speaker 4: sixty six point seven percent, covering by four points per

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Speaker 4: game as a favorite in the first half. How about

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Speaker 4: when laying six or more eleven to three and one

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Speaker 4: against the spread seventy eight point six percent covering by

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Speaker 4: five points per game. They'll just throwing that out there.

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Speaker 4: There's especially when you're not playing these divisional games. His speed,

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Speaker 4: it's usually a well prepared team. His speed is just

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Speaker 4: a shock to opposing defenses. Ravens usually have a good

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Speaker 4: game plan. I think they will come out here with

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Speaker 4: their hair on fire. That that lost to the Browns last week.

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Speaker 4: Ravens should also be healthier in the secondary. Wiggins and

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Speaker 4: Humphrey both practice today. Bit worried about the interior the

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Speaker 4: defensive line put Michael Pierce on ir They have a

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Speaker 4: couple other guys dealing with some injuries. But this is

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Speaker 4: a pass funnel defense, and the pass defense hasn't been

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Speaker 4: great statistically, but they've been extremely unlucky. I mean, if

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Speaker 4: you look at like the tight window percentage that they

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Speaker 4: force all the dropped interceptions, they've not been as bad

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Speaker 4: as the numbers indicate. They've also dealt with some injuries.

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Speaker 4: Should be healthier this week, and the Broncos offense is

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Speaker 4: not the offense that's going to exploit that. You need

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Speaker 4: a really good quarterback, dominant outside receivers to take advantage

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Speaker 4: of the Ravens. And should I mentioned the Ravens their

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Speaker 4: pass defense numbers. They've played Burrow, Mahomes, Dak Josh Allen, Daniels,

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Speaker 4: Baker when he had his weapons, Raiders when they had Adams,

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Speaker 4: and then the Browns when they had Jameis Winston the

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Speaker 4: last week, which obviously provides much more juice to their offense.

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Speaker 4: So their schedule of pass offenses has been as hard

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Speaker 4: as it possibly gets and Broncos. Their offense looks good

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Speaker 4: when they get their ground game going to help out Nix.

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Speaker 4: That's just not gonna happen here. The Ravens have an

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Speaker 4: elite run defense, and the Broncos schedule, you know, complete

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Speaker 4: opposite end of the spectrum. Compared to the Ravens. Their

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Speaker 4: schedule has been a joke, an absolute joke, especially when

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Speaker 4: you consider the opponent injuries, the backup quarterbacks that they faced,

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Speaker 4: and even the weather. So I think their defenses is

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Speaker 4: a bit overrated. And Knicks has been atrocious early on

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Speaker 4: in games. I mean, even if you include, even if

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Speaker 4: you include the games against the Panthers and the Saints

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Speaker 4: the past two weeks where they were playing backup quarterbacks

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Speaker 4: and teams decimated defenses that couldn't stop the run, Nicks

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Speaker 4: negative point one four to five adjusted EPA for play

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Speaker 4: in the first half. The only quarterback that's been worse

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Speaker 4: is to Shaun Watson. He's been even worse in the

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Speaker 4: first quarter. He has put up a lot of his

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Speaker 4: stats in garbage time, go back to that Chargers game

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Speaker 4: or against the league's worst defenses with major injuries, so

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Speaker 4: he's been bad in that department. Denver also very blitz heavy.

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Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson this season is destroying the blitz, number one

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Speaker 4: in the NFL against the blitz among all qualified quarterbacks.

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Speaker 4: I mentioned the Ravens have been unlucky in the turner ardment.

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Speaker 4: They've also been unlucky in the penalty department. I mean

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Speaker 4: you're talking. If you just look at judgment call penalties,

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Speaker 4: the Ravens have been flagged for forty forty, the most

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Speaker 4: in the league by far. Their opponent's only twenty four

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Speaker 4: fewest in the league, a net of sixteen insane for

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Speaker 4: through eight games. They have some penalty regression, some turnover

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Speaker 4: regression coming their way. And yeah, I just I don't

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Speaker 4: see this Broncos offense challenging this Ravens secondary, which will

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Speaker 4: be healthier Lamar Jackson first half against the spread, he

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Speaker 4: didn't practice today. As to watch, I'll be out and

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Speaker 4: I'll get Josh Johnson. I'm assuming everything is fine there.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I think it's just a good spot to

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Speaker 4: back the Ravens off the loss in the first half

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Speaker 4: where they're usually money, especially as a favorite against the

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Speaker 4: Broncos team with the same record. But it's done so

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Speaker 4: against the completely fraudulent schedule Knicks has been hard in

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Speaker 4: the first half, Broncos won't be able to get their

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Speaker 4: run game going. Give me the Ravens first half. Also

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Speaker 4: like them for the game, but I like the first

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Speaker 4: half much more. We've seen the Ravens blow leads. We've

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Speaker 4: seen the Broncos come back in games and sneak in

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Speaker 4: the back door a couple of times this year. Did

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Speaker 4: it against Seattle the Chargers. You know, they came back,

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Speaker 4: made that a one possession game. So I prefer the

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Speaker 4: first half. So that's what I'm going to go with.

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Speaker 4: Six are better spine here. I like Baltimore.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it makes me a little worry just because, like

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Speaker 2: you said, Baltimore is just inconsistent in the course of

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Speaker 2: a game. So I would prefer first half. If I'm

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Speaker 2: back in the Ravens, I think that Broncos defense could

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Speaker 2: always show up. I know they've blitched a lot and

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Speaker 2: played a lot of man which is not good against

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Speaker 2: the mobile quarterback. But they also have been one of

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Speaker 2: the better coach teams this year, so it's not out

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Speaker 2: of the realm that they adjust and kind of throw

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Speaker 2: the Ravens a little bit off, and so then you

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Speaker 2: could get kind of a weird post ugly game. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: it makes me a little nervous. But I agree that

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Speaker 2: Broncos just haven't started well on offense against any functional

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Speaker 2: defense I mean, and that in which I mean the

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Speaker 2: Ravens specistically are one of the worst defenses. But you know,

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Speaker 2: this schedule has been tough. But yeah, it's I feel

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Speaker 2: better about the first half. Two. For my first pick,

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Speaker 2: the second overall of the week nine Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Dallas Cowboys plus two and a

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Speaker 2: half the Atlanta Falcons. See if it gets back to three.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if it will, but no, hurry at

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Speaker 2: the two and a half doesn't matter for this contest

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Speaker 2: because we don't do pushes here. But for me, there's

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Speaker 2: a couple of things. Number One, you're gonna get Dallas

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Speaker 2: just I mean, they got to get back on it here.

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Speaker 2: And they're on the road off a loss eleven and

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Speaker 2: five against the spread with dak in his career sixty

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Speaker 2: nine percent on the roadoff a loss with Under McCarthy

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Speaker 2: fourteen and seven, sixty seven percent against the spread. But

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Speaker 2: I just think this Atlanta team is a little bit fraudulent,

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Speaker 2: just based on these matchups against this Tampa Bay defense

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Speaker 2: when they've been really banged up. Her cousins. Two games

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Speaker 2: against the Bucks defense averaging three hundred and ninety two

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Speaker 2: and a half yards per game with eight touchdowns and

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Speaker 2: one interceptions total, and then against every other defense.

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Speaker 4: The way most touchdowns against one opponent.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and then it's against every other defense that hasn't

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Speaker 2: been Tampa Bay. He's averaging two to twenty passing yards

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Speaker 2: has it cleared two fifty in a game with six

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Speaker 2: touchdowns and six picks. So the offense.

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Speaker 4: Includes a game against the Panthers, Yeah, the Saints, Yeah,

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Speaker 4: that's about them. That's her last four wins. Is there

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Speaker 4: against their division teams? Who and none of those defenses

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Speaker 4: are playing well?

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Speaker 2: Right, And I'll give them, you know the I mean,

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Speaker 2: they did put up thirty eight on the pants. I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to knock him for that. But what I

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Speaker 2: will say is I think this offense is still mediocre.

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Speaker 2: I got there's a lot of teams in the NFC

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Speaker 2: that I think are mediocre. I think these two teams

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Speaker 2: there's not really a difference between them except Atlanta. On defense,

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Speaker 2: they don't get sacks. They're two point two percent sacker

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Speaker 2: is dead last they're bottom three and pressure eight as

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Speaker 2: per usual. And this Dallas team, even without Michael Parson,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna get a little bit of pressure. They're gonna bwitch,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be aggressive. Kirk Cousins still a statue in

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Speaker 2: the pocket. So I think both of these teams are

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Speaker 2: fairly evenly matched. But I just trust Dallas's defense to

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Speaker 2: create a little more havoc and and you know, pressure Cousins,

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Speaker 2: whereas I think this Atlanta defense is for the most part,

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Speaker 2: like Dak's gonna be thrown from a clean pocket. You know,

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Speaker 2: Dallas probably still gonna have no run game, but I

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Speaker 2: think they can do it through the air in this one.

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Speaker 2: And I'm getting two and a half here. Hopefully we

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Speaker 2: could get back to three. But I just think Dallas

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Speaker 2: more desperate team. Everyone's kind of you know, oh, Atlanta there.

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Speaker 2: I think it's an eighty two percent playoff odds now,

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Speaker 2: so everyone's all hyped on Atlanta over these just ridiculous

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Speaker 2: performances against the Bucks. So I feel like this is

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Speaker 2: potentially peak market for Atlanta. You're like, this is You're

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Speaker 2: not going to have a quarterback that's thrown you know,

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Speaker 2: has played that well he's already he's already played the

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Speaker 2: two division games and we're only in Week nine. This

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Speaker 2: is just kind of one of those weird circumstances where

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Speaker 2: it sets up where this is almost certainly the peak

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Speaker 2: of the market for the Atlanta Falcons, even if they

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Speaker 2: beat the Dallas Cowboys, Like, are we're going to think

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Speaker 2: they're any better? No, So I'm going to fade the

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Speaker 2: Falcons at this spot. Give me a Dallas plus two

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, just like your Browns pick last week when you

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Speaker 4: that was your first pick, this would have been my

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Speaker 4: second pick. I bet the Cowboys as well. Deron Bland

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Speaker 4: should be back. That's big. Is there an outside shot

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Speaker 4: horses plays? I know he is, he's already to practice,

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Speaker 4: but I.

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Speaker 2: Think it's more like fifty to fifty or somewhere between

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Speaker 2: like twenty five and fifty maybe, which but last week

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Speaker 2: it was more like between zero and twenty five, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: there's a chance.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's not a great home field advantage. I agree,

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Speaker 4: there's not much between these teams, and it's just a

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Speaker 4: good Bilow Cell high point. Yeah. I like this all

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Speaker 4: right for my second pick and the third overall of

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Speaker 4: the Week nine Sunday six pack. I'm going with the

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Speaker 4: Minnesota Vikings first half. There's a minus three out there.

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Speaker 4: Grab that obviously a key number, especially for first half.

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Speaker 4: Doesn't matter for this contest, but we can load that

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Speaker 4: in the app. But obviously this will get greater at

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Speaker 4: three and a half, which is more widely available. Still

339
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Speaker 4: like it there. I think this is a really good

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Speaker 4: spot from Minnesota. Extended rests for a great coaching staff,

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Speaker 4: and off of two losses at home with one of

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Speaker 4: the best home field advantages in the NFL in primetime. Now,

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Speaker 4: the Colts came out they said they're going to start

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Speaker 4: Joe placoll. I don't know why you announced it earlier

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Speaker 4: in the week for Flores, but that's the story for

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Speaker 4: another day. What do we know Flora is gonna do?

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Speaker 4: He's gonna blitz. Colts and Flacco have been absolutely atrocious

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Speaker 4: against the Blitz. Now they have offensive line injuries. Their

349
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Speaker 4: offensive line is not going to be at full strength.

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Speaker 4: That's a problem. More importantly, O'Connell has been arguably the

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Speaker 4: best coach in the NFL this season when it comes

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Speaker 4: to scripting plays, and now he has extra time to

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Speaker 4: prepare against a basic defense that you know what you're

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Speaker 4: gonna get, and you know they're not gonna blitz. You

355
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Speaker 4: know they're not gonna get a bunch of pressure, which

356
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Speaker 4: is important because you lost Darrisol, your star left tackle.

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Speaker 4: Viking's been the best first quarter offense in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: Great first half offense. Now second half different story, bottom

359
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Speaker 4: third and EPA and success rate. Part of that has

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Speaker 4: to do with the script and the impact that it

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Speaker 4: has in the quarter. In first half, even the Vikings

362
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 4: defense has been much better in the first half. And

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Speaker 4: if you look at the numbers, Vikings have been winning

364
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,160
Speaker 4: their first halfs by over a touchdown per game on average.

365
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Speaker 4: They've only trailed at the half once against Detroit, who

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Speaker 4: seems to have their number. They definitely have Flores's number.

367
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Speaker 4: There are other six games They've led by an average

368
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Speaker 4: of ten point two points per game, led by six

369
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Speaker 4: or more in five of those six. And while the

370
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 4: Vikings have been dominant in the first half, the Colts

371
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 4: have not. Colts first half offense twenty seventh EPA per

372
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Speaker 4: play thirty first success rate, They've only led at the

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Speaker 4: half in two games, and now they didn't even lead

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Speaker 4: at the half against the Dolphins. With their backup quarterback.

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Speaker 4: The Packers with their backup quarterback Gus Bradley also you

376
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 4: know what you're going to get, and when he does

377
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 4: have to adjust, he's super slow to do it, so

378
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Speaker 4: usually only do it at halftime. Go back to that

379
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,879
Speaker 4: Packers game when they ran for almost an NFL record

380
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 4: in the first half and then Bradley finally made the

381
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,919
Speaker 4: adjustments in the second half. He's slow to adjust. I

382
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Speaker 4: think the Colts are also extremely overvalued. Yes, they cover

383
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 4: every week, but I mean this is a team they

384
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Speaker 4: have wins over. The Steelers have since bench their quarterback,

385
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 4: the road Bears and the Titans, plus the Dolphins with

386
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 4: their backup quarterback all by one possession. I know all

387
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,639
Speaker 4: their games are one possession, but they've come back in

388
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Speaker 4: a number of these, which does word me a bit.

389
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 4: Just in the second half could be a backdoor here.

390
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 4: I just prefer the first half. The spot, the staff,

391
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 4: the scripting Flora is going to have some unique blitz

392
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 4: packages that are gonna bother the Flacco don't really have

393
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Speaker 4: to worry about the run game as much, and Vikings

394
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 4: run defense has been elite. The Colts early down offense

395
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Speaker 4: has been awful with Flacco in there. So I really

396
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Speaker 4: like the spot for Minnesota. I think they jump out

397
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 4: early on the Colts. Blitz gives Flacco some issues, and yeah,

398
00:21:57,760 --> 00:21:59,439
Speaker 4: I think this line has come down a bit too

399
00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,479
Speaker 4: much Flaco.

400
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 2: I mean, he had that great game, but it was

401
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 2: against the Jaguars, right, who nothing in the second Yeah, yeah,

402
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 2: So I mean Flacco's not just.

403
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 4: He's getting too much love. Like even the Steelers game.

404
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:17,440
Speaker 4: They were up fourteen to nothing with Richardson in that game,

405
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:21,360
Speaker 4: and against the Titans they had like six first downs,

406
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 4: they scored seventeen points. He had six first downs because

407
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 4: of penalty and then he hit the game winning touchdown

408
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 4: on a you know, third and long jump ball to Pittman.

409
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 4: So you know, he's been better than Richardson, but it

410
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 4: hurts the run game, and I think he's gonna he's

411
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 4: gonna be forced into a mistake or two against Flores,

412
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,679
Speaker 4: and he's really going to struggle with the Blitz. Like

413
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 4: probably you might have a rookie left tackle here as well,

414
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 4: which isn't great against his Vikings team. Extra rest, extra

415
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 4: prep for this staff off two losses at home in

416
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 4: prime time. I like it. What do you think?

417
00:22:56,320 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm surprised that the number is even this posts.

418
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 2: I mean, I know Flacco is an upgrade on Richardson,

419
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 2: who's been just terrible. But I think people are kind

420
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Speaker 2: of down on the Vikings all of a sudden, you know,

421
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,399
Speaker 2: they come off these two losses. Everyone's, Oh, They're just

422
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 2: who we thought they were. It's like, no, I mean

423
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 2: they played the Rams in the spot where you know,

424
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 2: the Rams kind of surprised them with both starting receivers

425
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 2: coming back courting probably would have off guard and playing

426
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 2: Detroit coming off of Detroit game. Yeah, it was just

427
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 2: a tough spot. But I still think the Vikings are elite.

428
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm surprised the numbers even this closet, but

429
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Speaker 2: I guess money is coming on the Coats all right.

430
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Speaker 2: For my second pick in the fourth overall of the

431
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 2: week nine Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Cleveland

432
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 2: the Browns plus two against the Los Angeles Chargers at home,

433
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 2: And for me, this is I'm just going to continue

434
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 2: to buy Cleveland because I think the market's still too

435
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 2: low on them with the change of quarterback and they

436
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 2: you know, they still have some injuries. Now they have

437
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 2: a Whosu Cormoa we'll see about Denzel Award. I think

438
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,400
Speaker 2: he's hurt, and so there's still some injuries to be sure.

439
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 2: But we know quarterback it's always going to be the

440
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 2: biggest thing when it comes to point differential. And Jameis Winston,

441
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 2: you know, he has sixty four dropbacks this year. Forty

442
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 2: one quarterbacks have sixty four more dropbacks. Winston right now

443
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 2: is number one, and adjusted EPA per dropback. Deshaun Watson

444
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: was thirty ninth, and Herbert's you know, kind of middle

445
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 2: of the pack twenty first. And so even with some

446
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: of the injuries on defense, this Charger offense doesn't really

447
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 2: scare me. You know, Herbert's a great quarterback, but just

448
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 2: the way they're playing, you know, they're they're playing pretty

449
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 2: conservatively JK. Dobbins. You know, as we get deeper into

450
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 2: the season, the explosive runs have disappeared. The receiving course,

451
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 2: they're talking about trading Josh Palmer, so the McConkey is

452
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 2: their best receiver. He's been good, but you know, everyone

453
00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,159
Speaker 2: seems to be dealing with an injury. They go to

454
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 2: a lot of heavy personnel. So it's gonna be one

455
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 2: of those games where I don't think the Chargers are

456
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 2: going to you know, get up by margin or anything

457
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: like that, and you have a team that plays indoors

458
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 2: going outdoors to Cleveland, a more desperate Cleveland's. Even if

459
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 2: before the season you just looked at these two teams,

460
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 2: they would both have been okay, they're probably in the

461
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 2: running for one of those final playoff spots in the AFC.

462
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 2: So now getting points at home with the Cleveland Browns

463
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 2: against an you know, a more indoor team that just

464
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 2: hasn't really looked impressive. I mean, you know, the Chargers

465
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 2: lose to the Arizona Cardinals. Again, they don't get in

466
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 2: the end zone in that game, or they you know,

467
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 2: they don't really put up enough points to beat five

468
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 2: field goals or whatever it was. I mean, this, this

469
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 2: Charger team is just not very impressive to me. And

470
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 2: I think some of the things with their defense. You know,

471
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 2: they they're they're playing a really good defense, but they

472
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 2: don't get a lot of pressure. They just sit back

473
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 2: in a ton of zone. They've done it all year,

474
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 2: so their pressure rate is actually second worst. You know,

475
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 2: they're they're thirty first, and again a lot of they're

476
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 2: just sitting back and zone or not but uh that

477
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,480
Speaker 2: that's if you're not gonna get pressure on Jamis Winston

478
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 2: and he's at home, and the Browns still have a defense,

479
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 2: you know, even if some guys are out, and more importantly,

480
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 2: Jamis Winston has an offensive line now, so it's gonna

481
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: be harder to get pressure on him. Wyatt Teller's back,

482
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,479
Speaker 2: Conquin's back, you know, maybe even jud Wills comes back

483
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 2: this week. I don't know, but the line is healthy.

484
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 2: I don't expect this Charger team to play to build margin,

485
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: and that means that the the Browns are gonna be

486
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,719
Speaker 2: able to run the ball with Nick Chubb, who you know,

487
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 2: look a little better last week against Baltimore. This is

488
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 2: not it's hard. It's a it's a good run defense,

489
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 2: but not as tough as Baltimore. So I think this

490
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 2: should be closer to a pick them.

491
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 1: You know.

492
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 2: I think there's just still this market overreaction to all

493
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 2: of Cleveland's injuries, combined with just a historically bad quarterback

494
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 2: performance from Deshaun Watson. I think these are two kind

495
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,680
Speaker 2: of the middle of the pack AFC teams. So give

496
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,880
Speaker 2: me the Cleveland Browns plus two.

497
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, my kids, I don't think j Oka

498
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 4: or are going to play, But that's definitely worth monitoring.

499
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 4: I'd rather I'd rather tease the Browns. That's a teaser

500
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 4: for a teaser segment, just because I just worry that

501
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,119
Speaker 4: Winston's gonna throw he pick and Herbert won't with the

502
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 4: charter sitting back in those zones like last week he

503
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 4: had all day to throw against the Ravens and they

504
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,640
Speaker 4: the Ravens should have had like three picks in that game,

505
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 4: but they dropped them all Does Winston throw one or

506
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 4: two key picks?

507
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 2: Pressure?

508
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 4: But the Ravens got no pressu last week? Like, he

509
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 4: just is gonna miss a couple throws? Where does he

510
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 4: miss them?

511
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 1: Like?

512
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 4: Because Herbert doesn't really turn it over. That's my only concern.

513
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 4: But in principle I agree with you. I would just

514
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 4: I just prefer to tease it, which I'll have more

515
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 4: on later. All right, For my third pick and the

516
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 4: fifth overall of the week nine Sunday six pack, I'm

517
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 4: going back. It's all reliable. The Green Bay Packers plus

518
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 4: three half at home against the Detroit Lions. Why am

519
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 4: I saying all reliable? Pumpkin golf, Pumpkin golf, Baby GoF

520
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 4: Outdoors first time all season. One of my favorite fades,

521
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 4: especially against the competent team. I mean, look, the Lions

522
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 4: are a covering machine. Dan Campbell's seventy percent against the

523
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 4: spread since he took over in Detroit god for his career,

524
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 4: sixty percent against the spread, seventy three, forty nine and

525
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 4: two indoors though, thirty nine and sixteen. I mean, it's

526
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 4: almost unbelievable. Seventy one percent outdoors, thirty four, thirty four

527
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 4: and one against the spread. He is much more human.

528
00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 4: There could be some elements here. You only need a

529
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 4: little bit, just a little win. Could have some rain

530
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 4: and this Lion's offense also, you get them outdoors, not

531
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 4: as potent Lafleur. By the way, at home, he's been

532
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 4: almost as impressive as some of the lines of bers.

533
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 4: He's twenty eight and sixteen against the spread, sixty three

534
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 4: point six percent, six and one against the numbers, an underdog.

535
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 4: I just think this is the top of the market

536
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 4: on the lines. Their defense I think is still extremely

537
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 4: vulnerable without Hutchinson. They have a couple other injuries as

538
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 4: well in the front seven. But we just saw the Titans.

539
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 4: The Titans, they couldn't move the ball on anyone all year,

540
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 4: moved the ball up and down the field on the

541
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 4: Lions in a completely misleading final score. I think the

542
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 4: Lions had like three hundred return yards, three short field

543
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 4: touchdowns and Detroit recently it's like, you know, they beat

544
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 4: the Titans, they beat a decimated Dallas team that just

545
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 4: had no one playing on defense. They got to beat

546
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 4: up Seattle team. The Lions are very good Legit su

547
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 4: Bowl contenders, but they benefited from the schedule of late

548
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 4: and they just seem to have the Vikings number go

549
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 4: back to last year. They just have Golf has Flores's number.

550
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 4: You're gonna see a lot more Zone this week from

551
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 4: Green Bay, and Golf has been much more pedestrian against

552
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 4: Zone than Man this year. Now, the biggest question in

553
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 4: the offhan the room is Jordan Love gonna play? So

554
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 4: I don't know. Could be that, you know, Laflour's playing

555
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 4: games again like he did before, which is entirely possible.

556
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 4: The MRI came back clean. They do have a bye

557
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 4: week on deck. Green Bay historically pretty conservative with injuries

558
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 4: to their stars, especially before a bye, but this is

559
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 4: a huge game in the NFC and the division, So

560
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,479
Speaker 4: I think there's at least a chance. But if Love played,

561
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 4: I would have, you know, and he was healthy, I

562
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,840
Speaker 4: would have the Packers favorite here at home. If he

563
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 4: doesn't play, the question is how much of a downgrade

564
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 4: is it? And you know before the year when I

565
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 4: bet the Packers against the Colts, I said, the market

566
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 4: thinks this is like an eight. People think it's like

567
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 4: seven eight, nine point downgrade. I don't necessarily agree with that.

568
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 4: I think it was closer to you know, five or six. Now,

569
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 4: after seeing Malik Willis cure Sea, I should point out

570
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 4: it's a curious use of that for that that you

571
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 4: had for the Jameis Winston stat You said sixty four

572
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 4: plays or more. Well, if we change up to sixty

573
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 4: one plays or more, you know, is number one just

574
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 4: an EPA for play Malik Willis. Willis has been good.

575
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 4: It's only sixty one snaps. But we've seen it three

576
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 4: times now. The Colts defense isn't very good, and they

577
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 4: had a great game plan in that game. The Titans

578
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:47,239
Speaker 4: defense is good. We saw it against the Titans and

579
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 4: even against the Jags last week. The Jags were leading

580
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 4: in that game when Willis came in and he put

581
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 4: together scoring drives. He's been nothing but good every time

582
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 4: we've seen him in all three games this season, and

583
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,640
Speaker 4: mobile quarterbacks can give Detroit issues with the way that

584
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 4: they rush the passer. I'm just still not entirely sold

585
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 4: on this defense without Hutch. So yeah, I think the

586
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 4: Packers at home. So how much is that is the downgrade?

587
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 4: Like if I had the Packers favored in this, crossing

588
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 4: three is so key, you know, maybe it's like closer

589
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:35,560
Speaker 4: to three and a half to four points, so I

590
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 4: wouldn't cross three here. So I'm taking anything over a

591
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 4: field goal, mainly because of outdoor golf, but there's also

592
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 4: a chance that Love plays.

593
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 3: Now.

594
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 4: If Love gets ruled out, you could see this line

595
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 4: creep out maybe to four, but maybe four and a half.

596
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 4: I'm sure the lines will be a big public play

597
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 4: as well. But I'm comfortable to take anything over a

598
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 4: field goal here because Willis has proven in this offense

599
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 4: and the floor is proven. He'll have a really good

600
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 4: game plan here. I think this line's defense is vulnerable

601
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 4: and you get golf outdoors, this Lin's offense just not

602
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 4: the same. So give me the home divisional dog bill

603
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 4: pack go.

604
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 2: I like to spot more from the dvantage point of

605
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 2: fading the Lions based on they won fifty to to

606
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 2: fourteen but got out gained by you know, a ridiculous amount.

607
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 2: They beat the Vikings of everybody thought it was though

608
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 2: eat they beat the Cowboys by what forty Like they're

609
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 2: just and now they're going outdoors. But I mean, Malik

610
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 2: Willis has played the AFC South, I still don't know

611
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 2: where he's at. But also, this Lion run defense generally good,

612
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 2: so it looks like there's gonna be weather in this game.

613
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 2: So I don't know how much Jordan love, you know,

614
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 2: that should be the equalizer for the home team. But

615
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 2: the Lions run game like if they want to dominate

616
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 2: on the ground, I think they're the more like team too.

617
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think the Packers of the right side

618
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 2: I do agree. I think that the market is kind

619
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 2: of overestimating the potential love being out, especially in this spot.

620
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 2: I really hate, like, I guess just hate betting against

621
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 2: the Lions because they just just find bluto ways to

622
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 2: cover the cover machines. But I can't really argue with

623
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 2: it because I think it should be a weather game.

624
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 2: Packers big under Packers underdogs at home in the spot

625
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 2: I agree this. This line probably would be like a uh,

626
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:30,720
Speaker 2: you know, Packers minus one or two. If everybody is healthier,

627
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 2: maybe you know, maybe a pick him, depending on how

628
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: the mark, because the market probably would still overreact to

629
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 2: uh that that blowout last week. But uh, I mean

630
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 2: the line's got what eighty five passing yards from golf

631
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 2: last week? He has, he gets three touchdowns. Titans turn

632
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 2: over four times. Lions don't turn over at all. The

633
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 2: only thing is if you get love, that could be

634
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 2: the same script. I mean, love is love has been

635
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 2: a turnover machine. Know week will stay clean in this spot.

636
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 2: He has so far, but again on these AFC South teams,

637
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 2: Like I need to see him do it against someone

638
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:01,240
Speaker 2: that's not in the AFS.

639
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 4: I think the Titans defense is legit, and I'm glad

640
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 4: you mentioned the thirty five plus point angle, especially when

641
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 4: a team loses by thirty five or more. And if

642
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,800
Speaker 4: you look historically bigger sample sides, team's off of thirty

643
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 4: five or more point win forty percent against the spread

644
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 4: as a road favorite ten twenty and one against the spread,

645
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 4: thirty three percent as a road favorite of over a

646
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 4: field goal six and sixteen against the spread twenty seven

647
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,320
Speaker 4: percent against the spread. So yeah, a little bit of

648
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 4: a gamble.

649
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 2: Here, Like what's go been going on with the Lions.

650
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:37,840
Speaker 2: They're just due for a fade. It's always tough to

651
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,840
Speaker 2: fade them because they've just been so good against the spread.

652
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 2: But at over three, I can't blame you. All right,

653
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 2: let me wrap it up with the my third and

654
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 2: the sixth overall of the week nine Sunday six pack.

655
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 2: I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks. There is two and

656
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 2: a half out there, so plus two and a half

657
00:35:56,840 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 2: at home against the Los Angeles Rams. This this is

658
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:04,560
Speaker 2: one where I mean, I know the Rams got tough

659
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,439
Speaker 2: and the cool back, but to me, these are still

660
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 2: two pretty even, we matched teams. I know, DK Metcalf

661
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 2: maybe out, but Seattle at home, second straight home game,

662
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: coming off a twenty plus point loss, I still think

663
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 2: this is a pretty decent spot for Seattle. Even with

664
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 2: the Rams coming off the longer week. They do have

665
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 2: Toy Buoling back. You know, could get Trey Brown back

666
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 2: this week at corner. That's gonna be big against the Rams.

667
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 2: I just can't get to this number with the Rams

668
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: favorite on the road. I mean, you know, look at

669
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: these two.

670
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 4: Teams as are almost Buffalo.

671
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 2: Right right, exactly, Yeah, Buffalo was laying three. We're up

672
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:45,959
Speaker 2: to two and a half at places with the Rams.

673
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,839
Speaker 2: And you look at Seattle all right on the year,

674
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 2: DVA the sixteenth overall, fifteen on offense, fourteen on defense,

675
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: twelve on special teams. The Rams are twenty first overall,

676
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 2: twelfth on offense, twenty eighth on defense, twenty second on

677
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 2: special teams. All right, you knock down the Seahawks a

678
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 2: little on the offense, and you give the Rams a

679
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:06,800
Speaker 2: little bump for you know, guys being healthier and whatnot.

680
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,800
Speaker 2: But the Seahawks they've also have been unhealthy on defense,

681
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 2: so you got you know, you kind of bumped them up.

682
00:37:11,880 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 2: So everything for the most part evens out. You still

683
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 2: got Seattle at home going up against a bad defense.

684
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 2: You know, even if Metcalf is out. I mean, this

685
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 2: team is not, like not incapable of moving the ball

686
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 2: up and down the field on the bottom five defense

687
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 2: with Gino Lockett, JSN, Kenneth Walker, you know, and you

688
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 2: know the right side of the line is a problem

689
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 2: for Seattle. It's been like that for most.

690
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:37,360
Speaker 4: They should get fan back though this week.

691
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I'm hoping right now we don't. It's

692
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:41,959
Speaker 2: too early to know, but you know, the left tackle

693
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 2: has been good for Seattle. If they get any positive

694
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 2: injury news, I mean, I you know, I still make

695
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 2: this a slight favorite for Seattle even with the injury

696
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 2: news and issuing metcalf Is is not really going to

697
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 2: be a factor here. So I just can't get to

698
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 2: this number, you know, kind of going going through the

699
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 2: zero to Rams being favored now, I just don't see it.

700
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 2: I think Seattle get a lot more better effort, more desperate,

701
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 2: and last week a lot of Seattle fans were kind

702
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,720
Speaker 2: of complaining that seemed more like a fifty to fifty crowd.

703
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 2: They didn't have their usual home field, but I mean,

704
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 2: the Rams don't have fans that travel, so you probably

705
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 2: just get a better home field advantage in this spot

706
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 2: than you had last week. Again, second straight home game

707
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 2: kind of offsets the longer rest for the Rams. And

708
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 2: Sean McVay actually hasn't been great in these spots. He

709
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 2: is just twelve and twenty five against the spread coming

710
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 2: off a multi game winning streak, and I think the

711
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 2: changing coaching staff in the offseason for Seattle, you know,

712
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,879
Speaker 2: getting rid of the Carol staff. It's benefits Seattle more

713
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 2: because Sean McVay, we just had that Carol. Yeah, they

714
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 2: just had their number. So anything new here like that

715
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 2: they have to prepare for and haven't seen is just

716
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 2: I think it just benefits Seattle more. So Yeah, give

717
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 2: me the Seahawks plus two and half. Don't think this

718
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,320
Speaker 2: gets to three either, but no rush at this point,

719
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 2: So if you don't see it come through in the app,

720
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 2: that's why. But I'll take them plus two and a

721
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 2: half here.

722
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:12,359
Speaker 4: I mean, the Seattle defense has obviously been disappointed, but

723
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 4: like they got cooked by the Bills, they got cooked

724
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 4: by the Lion. Those are two really good offenses. They've

725
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 4: also had so many injuries, they're healthier across the board.

726
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 4: On defense. They also added Ernest Jones. This will be

727
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 4: his second game. They also added Robertson Harris to kind

728
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 4: of reinforce that defensive line. And they were embarrassed last week.

729
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 4: I mean, that was an embarrassing effort across the board.

730
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,800
Speaker 4: They were fighting each other on the sidelines on defense

731
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 4: and the game just kind of got away from them

732
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 4: and the Bills were did whatever they wanted. But there

733
00:39:42,960 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 4: was also they were at the one yard line. They

734
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 4: snapped the ball over their head. They're at the one

735
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 4: yard line again and on fourth and goal and they tripped.

736
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 4: Gino trips over his center Like that game could have

737
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 4: went a bit differently. And yeah, I mean I have

738
00:39:55,880 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 4: the Bills. The Bills, they're like three and a half,

739
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 4: four points better than the Rams on the neutral field, right,

740
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 4: and this line was just Bills minus three, and we

741
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,320
Speaker 4: knew Metcalf was out. This would have been one of

742
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:10,240
Speaker 4: my picks. I was just waiting on the Metcalf news

743
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 4: because at two two and a half there's no risk

744
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 4: in waiting. But I would definitely play it. Like if

745
00:40:17,440 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 4: Metcalf was announced in this line will probably move towards

746
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 4: Seattle and then I can play it, you know, one

747
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 4: and a half two, try to grab it. But if

748
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 4: DK gets officially announced that I didn't practice today, then

749
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:29,399
Speaker 4: maybe there's a chance it goes to three. I don't

750
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 4: think it would last long, but that's what I'm waiting for.

751
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 4: I agree with you there, all right.

752
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 2: So that is our Sunday six pack for Week nine

753
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 2: to recaps that has the Baltimore Ravens minus five and

754
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 2: a half in the first half. The Minnesota Vikings minus

755
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 2: three in the first half. I the Green Bay Packers

756
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 2: plus three and a half for the game. I have

757
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 2: Dallas plus two and a half, the Browns plus two,

758
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 2: and the Seahawks plus two and a half. All three

759
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 2: of those, you know, kind of wait see where the

760
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 2: line ends up, because you know two, you know the three.

761
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 2: The key number is three. I don't know if any

762
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 2: of those gets get there, but it's worth waiting to

763
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 2: see if they do. All right, So you got Lamar Jackson,

764
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold and potentially Jordan Love maybe Mowie Willis. I

765
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,839
Speaker 2: got Dak Prescott, Gino Smith and James Winston. So yeah,

766
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 2: pretty good. I mean there might have been one where

767
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 2: we had like just as as good depending on Wills plays,

768
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 2: but yeah.

769
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 4: Something up there in there.

770
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 2: All right. That's that's our Week nine Sunday six pack.

771
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 2: Now it's time for our coaches, Pepzo. We sucked.

772
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 1: That's what it boiled down to.

773
00:41:32,600 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 2: I'm totally embarrassed and totally ashamed. And for this week,

774
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:40,399
Speaker 2: it comes from one of my favorites NFL films, own

775
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 2: John Facenda, also known as the Voice of God, just

776
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:48,799
Speaker 2: my favorite voice period. Probably we're going to dedicate this

777
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 2: one to let's go all all these NFL teams here,

778
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 2: especially the ones we're betting. I'll dedicate it to the

779
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,720
Speaker 2: six Pack because we had a two and four week last.

780
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 4: Week, So get it to me again too.

781
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, until until you get within half of my point total,

782
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 2: So you'll dedicate it to YouTube.

783
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 4: Stuck.

784
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 2: But you're not only the Raiders this week, so you

785
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:13,720
Speaker 2: can't just dedicate to the Raiders. But it is November.

786
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 2: It's kind of like the witching hour of the NFL.

787
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 2: If you will, things start to slip around, so you

788
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,839
Speaker 2: should see some interesting things go early games.

789
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:23,839
Speaker 4: Let's let's run it back from last week with that.

790
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 4: That was the first like really exciting witching hour of

791
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:26,399
Speaker 4: the year.

792
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:29,479
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, super Bowl.

793
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 1: Greens that glowed in the summer sunshine flicker and fade,

794
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: and the autumn shadows and hopes that were high in

795
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 1: the heat of September and will and die in the

796
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:48,239
Speaker 1: chill of November. November can be cold and gray. November

797
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: can be surly, with bitter rain upon the world and

798
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 1: winter coming early. Do you fear the force of the wind,

799
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: the slash of the rain, Go face them and fight them.

800
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:08,720
Speaker 1: Be savage again. The palms of your hands will thicken,

801
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 1: the skin of your cheek will can't. You'll grow ragged

802
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 1: and where the and went? But you must do the

803
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 1: best you can.

804
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 2: All Right, totals favorite total of the week? You went

805
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 2: first for the six packs. I'll go off first on

806
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 2: the total. I'm gonna go with the Jags Eagles under

807
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 2: twenty three and a half first half. And this is

808
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 2: something that Eagles full game didn't work out last week.

809
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 2: I mean, they just destroyed the Bengals, but first half,

810
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:44,439
Speaker 2: the Eagles just kind of they tend to feel things

811
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 2: out in the first quarter.

812
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 4: They scored in the first quarter this year.

813
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,240
Speaker 2: No, so there's no points in the first quarter.

814
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 4: That's insane.

815
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, they and they're at so they're at nine point

816
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:59,439
Speaker 2: three first half average, that's twenty second second half, they're

817
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 2: fifteen at one points game, tied for first in the NFL.

818
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:04,960
Speaker 2: So that's that's where I got caught up.

819
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 4: But yeah, I think it seems like the script doesn't

820
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:13,720
Speaker 4: align with like what Hurts is excelling at. And then

821
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 4: they after the script, they then start to move the

822
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 4: ball like it's pretty crazy. No points for that team

823
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 4: in the first quarter is wild.

824
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they'll get there eventually, but I mean they

825
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 2: it's been working out for him. So but when I

826
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 2: look at the matchup, we know the Jaguars defense, and

827
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,919
Speaker 2: they aren't getting a little healthier pass defense. They're getting

828
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 2: a little more pressure, but they're still a lot better

829
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,600
Speaker 2: of a run defense. A number of eleven in dv

830
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 2: AWA against the Runners still dead with ast against the pass.

831
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 2: So that plays here benefit against a team like the

832
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 2: Eagles who would like to set you know, everything up

833
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 2: off the run. And then you look at the other

834
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 2: side of this matchup, and I wouldn't be surprised if

835
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 2: Jacksonville starts really slow. You're gonna have a new left tackle,

836
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 2: Cam Robinson traded to the Minnesota Vikings. Your interior offensive

837
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 2: line is banged up, Brandon Sheriff and Cleveland left the

838
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 2: game last week. Who knows if they're going to be

839
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 2: active or one hundred percent. And your receiving corps is

840
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 2: also decimated. Christian Kirk out for the year. Brian Thomas Junior,

841
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:19,239
Speaker 2: your most explosive receiver. Initially they called him week to week.

842
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:20,919
Speaker 2: Now they're calling him day to day, so it could

843
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,600
Speaker 2: be shenanigans. He might. He'd probably just be fine. No,

844
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,879
Speaker 2: no that, but Gave Davis also left early. He's been

845
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:29,880
Speaker 2: just battling through a nagging shoulder injury. So there's a

846
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 2: chance here. Number one receiver in this spot for Jacksonville

847
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 2: is Parker Washington. If that's the case, or even if

848
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 2: it's not, I think you come out. You might see

849
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 2: Jacksonville come out with a lot more heavy personnel Brenton

850
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:43,320
Speaker 2: Strange in the two tight end sets, which I always

851
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 2: like for totals because I think that just leads to

852
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 2: more runs and shorter passes and whatnot, less explosiveness. So

853
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 2: a few different factors kind of working in favor of

854
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 2: the first half under and the fact that you know,

855
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 2: Philadelphia obviously has an advantage in the passing game, you know,

856
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 2: regardless of how Hurts is playing or what the script is.

857
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,839
Speaker 2: I mean, you got aj Brown and Devonte Smiths going

858
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 2: against this Jags defense that's ranked dead last, but you

859
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 2: still have your left tackle out, You're not gonna have

860
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: as much time, and a team that's starting slow. So

861
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm getting the best part of the

862
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 2: number here with this first half under twenty three and

863
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 2: a half, because you could get there a few different ways.

864
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 2: The Eagles could have success, but the Jaguars might not

865
00:46:22,800 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 2: do anything. And I think this Eagle d is getting

866
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 2: a lot better. I talked about that for the last

867
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 2: few weeks. Cooper Dejonal looks really good. Quinnon Mitchell has

868
00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:34,359
Speaker 2: just not been giving up catches, So yeah, I think

869
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 2: this Eagles defense continues to improve under Fanjioe as well.

870
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would like the first half under there. Maybe

871
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,480
Speaker 4: it's seven and a half. I think about the Jags,

872
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 4: but this Eagles. I agree that Benja d it might

873
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 4: have clicked in the place like it was they played

874
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson and the Giants without their left tackle. I

875
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 4: couldn't really take much from that, but I was impressed

876
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:03,399
Speaker 4: last week. And they've really turned it on offensively too.

877
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 4: They've been and you're right about their slow start, So

878
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,760
Speaker 4: I would definitely prefer first half. But their young corners

879
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 4: are starting to play better, starting to grasp that scheme. Yeah,

880
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 4: the Jags just might not have any receivers, like how

881
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:17,920
Speaker 4: many times can you really throw to Evan Ingram. I

882
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 4: will note that Cam Robinson hasn't played the last two games.

883
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 3: So yeah, like there, but yeah, he's so good and

884
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 3: now you have guard injuries and he could be down

885
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 3: your top three receivers, and the Jags past the is

886
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 3: really bad, but it's not as bad as the metrics are,

887
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 3: just because they've had a ton of injuries, Like, at

888
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,319
Speaker 3: least you have your top corner back now.

889
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:41,880
Speaker 4: Now. I do get worried a bit about the Jags

890
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 4: playing a ton of man. That's not usually a good

891
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 4: idea against AJ Brown and this offense. And Jalen Hurts

892
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 4: could use his legs, so this game could end up

893
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 4: getting out of hand, which is why I definitely would

894
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 4: like your your first half angle over the full game

895
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:00,400
Speaker 4: for my favorite tital I'm gonna go just keep it

896
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 4: really simple. I'm gonna go Pats Titans under thirty eight

897
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:09,359
Speaker 4: and a half too slow run heavy teams with bad

898
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 4: quarterback play. Titans defense should hold its own against the

899
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:17,839
Speaker 4: Pats offense. And you're gonna get Jacobe Brissett. What does

900
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 4: that mean? Sucks? I think you're gonna get No, no, no.

901
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 4: I meant to say, well, that actually is very fitting,

902
00:48:28,640 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 4: but uh, that sucks. All of the explosiveness, oh I

903
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 4: got of your offense, but that works as well. But yeah,

904
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:40,879
Speaker 4: this should be a rock fight.

905
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 3: Times up. Stop speaking, well.

906
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:45,440
Speaker 1: This whole thing is a Travis dye and a sham

907
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: and a mockery. It's a Travis Sham mockery.

908
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:52,399
Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, no no issues at that one. It's tight.

909
00:48:52,440 --> 00:48:54,840
Speaker 2: Like you said, the Titans defense probably better than that

910
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 2: they went on. I don't think they're fifty two points

911
00:48:57,880 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 2: to the line bad. That's the lines which has been

912
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 2: stomped through everyone and just got to hope that the

913
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:05,319
Speaker 2: turnovers don't get out of hand Brissette. They won't, So

914
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 2: you're just kind of hoping that Titans don't get get

915
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 2: it out of hand turnover wise. All right. So that's

916
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 2: Titans Patriots under thirty eight and a half and Eagles

917
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 2: Jags first half under twenty three and a half.

918
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 4: By the way, I would say, you know, I'm gonna

919
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 4: look at how many times do you think a team

920
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 4: has lost by thirty five or more and is favored

921
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 4: the next week by more than three?

922
00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 2: Probably have been I guess like five five times.

923
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 4: A year, max five times a year. That three times

924
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 4: in the last twenty years.

925
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 2: Oh wow.

926
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 4: Teams usually off thirty five point loss like automatic against

927
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 4: the spread. Very good in this particular case. I mean,

928
00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 4: it's a sample size at three, but they're all in

929
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 4: three against the spread. We saw it last year with

930
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 4: the Giants at the Cardinals, And do you remember that game?

931
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:04,320
Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, they got down like twenty eight, not in

932
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 2: the first half or something like that, and came all

933
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:06,640
Speaker 2: the way back.

934
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 4: Yep, and they were laying four and a half. They

935
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 4: only won by three. They outscored them by seventeen in

936
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:15,760
Speaker 4: the fourth quarter, Dobbs, but zero and three against the spread,

937
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:17,200
Speaker 4: So it rarely happens.

938
00:50:17,560 --> 00:50:20,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, and now it's time for our favorite teaser

939
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:22,200
Speaker 2: of the week.

940
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

941
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 2: Don't change. Don't tease me. Try to please me.

942
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,359
Speaker 4: With your teaser. What's your teaser? Keep it simple here too.

943
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 4: Brown started to talking about this earlier. Brown's up over

944
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 4: a touchdown and then I'm gonna go Bengals down to

945
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:53,360
Speaker 4: minus one and a half. I you know, the Bengals.

946
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:57,400
Speaker 4: I can't really play them as a favorite without knowing

947
00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:00,840
Speaker 4: the status of Higgins. And I don't think Orlando Brown's

948
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 4: gonna be healthy. The ceiling of their offense is extremely

949
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 4: limit I would actually look at that under too. If

950
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 4: he doesn't play, be a slow game, and it's just

951
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 4: not the same offense without Higgins. And then if Brown

952
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 4: is out too, but I think the Bengals should win

953
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 4: this game at home. So give me the Bengals and

954
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 4: Brown's ANFC North teaser. Lower ish totals going through three

955
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 4: and seven, I'll see a.

956
00:51:26,600 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 2: Couple of favorites down to one and a half. The

957
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 2: Eagles against the Jaguars. I just don't see the Jaguars

958
00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:37,360
Speaker 2: pulling it out here with all the injuries on offense.

959
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 2: And then the Saints. You know, this Panther team is

960
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: just we're getting Bryce younger again. So that's really the

961
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:47,399
Speaker 2: only handicap I need. We're getting Bryce down again.

962
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:50,720
Speaker 4: So Eagles Saints, Well, you're also getting Derek Carr back,

963
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:55,959
Speaker 4: and Derek Carr is a well above average quarterback when

964
00:51:55,960 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 4: he is not under pressure. Yeah, there's get zero pressure.

965
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 4: And the Saints are getting healthier across the board. Why

966
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 4: is Barby young start? It's still not healthier. They're just

967
00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:07,760
Speaker 4: they're going.

968
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 2: Back, so finger finger injury for a quarterback.

969
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:12,439
Speaker 4: I thought it was just gonna be like a week.

970
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 4: Are they going back? To see what they are tanking? Bro?

971
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 2: They literally just traded away Deantey Johnson for a ten

972
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 2: spot move up. They trade a fifth for a sixth pick, swap.

973
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 2: They're the worst team in the Ravens are like the

974
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 2: best team. This is the tanking. They might not say it,

975
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 2: but they're like, oh, we're not trading Chuba Hubbard and

976
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 2: uh who was it somebody else? It's like you're obviously

977
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 2: trading those guys if you're gonna say yeah.

978
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 4: But I also don't understand that trade to the Ravens

979
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 4: because there's a lot of teams in the NFL, Like,

980
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 4: he's just like a luxury depth beats for the Ravens.

981
00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:48,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, there was.

982
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:50,040
Speaker 4: A lot of teams in the NFL that I think

983
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 4: he could have got a better return, like the Cowboys.

984
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 4: I don't know if they need a receiver, like the Steelers.

985
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 4: The Steelers trade back for.

986
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 2: They've been trying to trade for everyone and they haven't.

987
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 2: They've struck out.

988
00:53:00,880 --> 00:53:02,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, but like you're telling me all these there's a

989
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 4: lot of teams in the NFL that could use a

990
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:10,799
Speaker 4: Deontay Johnson. Yes, and you couldn't get you couldn't get

991
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 4: better than that return.

992
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:14,400
Speaker 2: I said, the Texans probably would have given that up

993
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:15,360
Speaker 2: for a rental. Honestly.

994
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, Taxon's another good example.

995
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 2: I mean crazy, all right, But yeah, so that's our

996
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 2: teaser Bengals, Browns review, Eagles Saints. For me, I was

997
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 2: go to our money line parley.

998
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:39,560
Speaker 4: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

999
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 4: money line parlay.

1000
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 2: All right, I got got one here with this. With

1001
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 2: the Patriots last week, I don't know how first one

1002
00:53:47,120 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 2: out of seven hundred and fifty chance that they win

1003
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:53,320
Speaker 2: that game, they won that game. But where are you

1004
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 2: going this week?

1005
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, Raiders actually had some shots, man. I was so mad.

1006
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 4: I bet the Raiders actually two good two games that

1007
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 4: went for me and two games went against me. Luckwise

1008
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 4: a d M last week, which is very nice. Raiders

1009
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 4: got in the back door. But the Raiders. I was

1010
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:13,399
Speaker 4: so mad at Antonio Pears. He kicks a field goal

1011
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 4: every single time went on fourth down, and he decided

1012
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 4: to go for it this time and the worst call ever,

1013
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:22,799
Speaker 4: Minshew gets sacked and I was like, ye, gotta be kidding.

1014
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:24,400
Speaker 4: They started with the ball in the five yard line.

1015
00:54:24,560 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 4: All I needed was a field goal there and I

1016
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 4: would have locked up the cover. I was livid, but yeah,

1017
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:34,439
Speaker 4: that would have been nice if for that huge long shot.

1018
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 4: A good call on the Pats. My money line dog

1019
00:54:37,719 --> 00:54:40,279
Speaker 4: already talked about it earlier. I'm gonna go with.

1020
00:54:40,400 --> 00:54:44,879
Speaker 2: Seattle, all right, I want to actually go with let's

1021
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:47,799
Speaker 2: go with the Patriots again. This Titan team, I know

1022
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:49,839
Speaker 2: you like him, but that's a really good sign for

1023
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 2: me to bet against him, right kidding in all seriousness, Listen,

1024
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:58,320
Speaker 2: there's we know the number you mentioned the numbers of

1025
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:00,319
Speaker 2: these teams that you know they moved back thirty and

1026
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:02,960
Speaker 2: then they're favored by more than a field goal. Also,

1027
00:55:03,200 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 2: the numbers are just hideous. When you play the Lions

1028
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:09,839
Speaker 2: one week and then you know you have to then

1029
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:11,319
Speaker 2: you come back the next week. You're not on a

1030
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:14,319
Speaker 2: buyer or anything like that. And you know one thing

1031
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 2: about the Patriots that I will say wi Chia Kobe

1032
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 2: Brisett starting is that you don't really turn the ball

1033
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 2: over now, but their running backs still have to not fumble.

1034
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:26,319
Speaker 2: But even that, that's been bad luck all year. So

1035
00:55:26,719 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 2: if you don't turn the ball over against the Titans,

1036
00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:31,920
Speaker 2: you have a shot. That doesn't matter who you are.

1037
00:55:32,000 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 2: So I'll go with the Patriots plus one fifty year.

1038
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 4: Actually I'm gonna change it. I'm gonna go there's more uncertainty,

1039
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 4: but this I'm gonna go Cowboys. So it should be

1040
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 4: let's go Cowboys Pats should be okay right around same price?

1041
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:48,160
Speaker 2: All right, So Cowboys plus one twenty six Patriots plus

1042
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 2: one fifty parlay those together plus for sixty five. That

1043
00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:56,400
Speaker 2: is our money line underdog parlay. Now it's time for

1044
00:55:56,480 --> 00:55:58,879
Speaker 2: best of the rest the games. We did not discuss

1045
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:01,680
Speaker 2: in any other segment that's.

1046
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:03,640
Speaker 1: Gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful to

1047
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:06,319
Speaker 1: some of you, so you know what I mean.

1048
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:07,839
Speaker 4: All right?

1049
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 2: First up, we got the Bears at the Cardinals. Cardinals

1050
00:56:13,000 --> 00:56:16,320
Speaker 2: favorite by one. Their totals forty four and a half. Yeah,

1051
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 2: this is about right to me. I mean, the Bears

1052
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 2: have a good defense, but they continue to shoot themselves

1053
00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:25,360
Speaker 2: in the foot with coaching decisions. And the Cardinals I

1054
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 2: just kind of mediocre and a little bit in consistent.

1055
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 2: You don't know what you're gonna get from them for

1056
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:32,200
Speaker 2: week to week. I worry a little bit about Kyro

1057
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:35,640
Speaker 2: throwing down the field against the Spars d but they

1058
00:56:35,680 --> 00:56:38,759
Speaker 2: put Harrison in the slot more so maybe that helps out.

1059
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 2: I don't know what are your thoughts on this one.

1060
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:44,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, they finally changed his routree last week, Yeah, which

1061
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:47,280
Speaker 4: I didn't like to see. Exide money on the Dolphins.

1062
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 4: But I mean the Cardinals started out the season one

1063
00:56:53,080 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 4: in three. Since then they've gone three and one. Their

1064
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:02,920
Speaker 4: wins are by one, two and one, and they probably

1065
00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:04,360
Speaker 4: should have lost all three games they were train by

1066
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:06,680
Speaker 4: double digits in two of them. They are a weird

1067
00:57:06,719 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 4: team to figure out. Do you do? I trust the

1068
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 4: Bears in the road. Ibra Flus is oh and seventeen

1069
00:57:12,160 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 4: on the road on Sundays, He's three and seventeen.

1070
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 2: Overall.

1071
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 4: His wins have come against Bailey Zappi, Josh Dobbs, and

1072
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 4: Sam Howe three and seventeen on the road. I need

1073
00:57:26,640 --> 00:57:29,040
Speaker 4: I have a like a small lean to the Bears

1074
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 4: as a dog. I can't figure out the Bears like

1075
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 4: their offense is making progress, but it was against really

1076
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:37,040
Speaker 4: bad defenses. Yep, and they didn't do much last week.

1077
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:38,960
Speaker 4: But his Washington's defensive broom. We'll talk about that in

1078
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:41,320
Speaker 4: a second. But I need to see their like are

1079
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 4: Brisker and Gordon Back. I think that's important. Sweat might miss.

1080
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:48,920
Speaker 4: They also have a ton of offensive potent of offensive

1081
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 4: line injuries. Like eber Flu said today, Sweat their backup

1082
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 4: tackle was starting Tevin Jenkins. Bracton Braxton, Jones, Brisker, Gordon

1083
00:57:57,960 --> 00:57:59,440
Speaker 4: All would not have practiced today.

1084
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 3: So uh.

1085
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:06,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I lean Bears, but Cardinals are hard to figure

1086
00:58:06,680 --> 00:58:08,160
Speaker 4: out pass for now.

1087
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 2: Kyra is six and twelve against the spread, is a

1088
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:13,480
Speaker 2: home favorite, but the Bears are ten and five with

1089
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 2: Montese sweat, So you know, if he's out that that

1090
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:18,520
Speaker 2: changes things a little bit for that defense.

1091
00:58:19,120 --> 00:58:21,480
Speaker 4: How do the Bears respond to that loss last week?

1092
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 4: That's the it's hard to hard to get.

1093
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:27,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, yeah, it's I don't know where their

1094
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:29,640
Speaker 2: heads are. It's the gay I don't really, I.

1095
00:58:29,560 --> 00:58:31,280
Speaker 4: Mean they also do they also they have all these

1096
00:58:31,280 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 4: other second ra injuries. Do they like punish Stevenson? I

1097
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:36,080
Speaker 4: don't know.

1098
00:58:36,560 --> 00:58:38,160
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think you punished him. He's just

1099
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:41,360
Speaker 2: it's hard. Yeah, it's just is yeah, too much uncertainty?

1100
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 2: Is this one too close of his spread? Nothing really

1101
00:58:43,640 --> 00:58:47,520
Speaker 2: for me there. Miami at Buffalo Buffalo minus six to

1102
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 2: total forty nine and a half. It seems to be

1103
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:54,959
Speaker 2: one of those spots where Miami, you know, you always

1104
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:57,880
Speaker 2: trust him against bad teams, even though they I mean

1105
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,960
Speaker 2: maybe Arizona's not a bad team, but they kind of

1106
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:04,040
Speaker 2: get blown out against good teams. Though I don't feel

1107
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 2: great about them, even as a six point dog.

1108
00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 4: What about you, Yeah, I have a gut feeling that

1109
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:17,600
Speaker 4: Miami covers this game, just the intuition that you get.

1110
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:21,880
Speaker 4: But the line's probably out right. There were the Bills

1111
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 4: when both teams are healthy early in the year of

1112
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 4: minus two and a half at Miami. You know, now

1113
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 4: two is back. He should be maybe even a little

1114
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:32,680
Speaker 4: better his second week back post concussion, So you know,

1115
00:59:32,720 --> 00:59:38,360
Speaker 4: you're just for home field. The problem is with my intuition,

1116
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:40,520
Speaker 4: maybe I would place the small bet on my I

1117
00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:42,680
Speaker 4: definitely would have bet Miami if was at seven. But

1118
00:59:44,440 --> 00:59:47,600
Speaker 4: two against the Bills, it does not go well. He

1119
00:59:48,160 --> 00:59:50,760
Speaker 4: is a disaster one in seven against the Bills. His

1120
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:54,080
Speaker 4: completion percentage drops from sixty seven percent to sixty one.

1121
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 4: His yards per attempt drop almost a full yard. He

1122
00:59:57,200 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 4: has seven touchdowns and ten interceptions in those eight games,

1123
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:02,720
Speaker 4: six picks in the past three games against the Bills.

1124
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 4: Why Bills take away the explosive play. I mean this

1125
01:00:06,000 --> 01:00:08,240
Speaker 4: year they've only allowed two passing plays in more than

1126
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:10,760
Speaker 4: thirty yards. It's the fewest in the NFL. They make

1127
01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 4: to work it down the field, they eventually get some

1128
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:16,440
Speaker 4: pressure and he makes mistakes or they create negative plays

1129
01:00:16,440 --> 01:00:21,400
Speaker 4: and they take away those explosives. Buffalo offense. Also, you

1130
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:24,840
Speaker 4: could argue that this line maybe it's a little short.

1131
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 4: I could see someone arguing that because Buffalo's offense is

1132
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:31,920
Speaker 4: trending up. You added Amari Cooper Coleman is really coming along,

1133
01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:37,040
Speaker 4: really also opens up things for Shakir even more. Allan

1134
01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 4: is playing at a really high level in Miami's more

1135
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:45,640
Speaker 4: bagged up than it was early in the season compared

1136
01:00:45,640 --> 01:00:48,680
Speaker 4: to the Bills. So yeah, this is probably a stay

1137
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:53,800
Speaker 4: away for me to It just doesn't farewell against the Bills.

1138
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 4: And I think it's a schematic issue here. So nothing here.

1139
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:03,320
Speaker 2: Washington at the Giants Giants three and a half point

1140
01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:07,320
Speaker 2: underdogs at home total forty three and a half. I mean,

1141
01:01:08,040 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 2: the Giants just don't play well at home. Daniel Jones,

1142
01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:13,880
Speaker 2: we see it everywhere. He has a throwing a touchdown

1143
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 2: at home and like, oh, like what two years worth

1144
01:01:16,720 --> 01:01:20,880
Speaker 2: of days, like six hundred something, He's fourteen and twenty

1145
01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:26,320
Speaker 2: against the spread at home. The under in Daniel Jones

1146
01:01:26,400 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 2: home games is twenty four nine and one seventy three percent,

1147
01:01:30,800 --> 01:01:33,600
Speaker 2: So I'd probably lean that way. I just don't. I mean,

1148
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 2: and now Tyron Tracy, who's the best.

1149
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 4: He's so good.

1150
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:40,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's their best move former offense. He probably misses

1151
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:42,800
Speaker 2: with a concussion. You played Monday night, so it's a

1152
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,840
Speaker 2: short week, so he almost certainly misses. So yeah, this

1153
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 2: is it's Washington or not. I mean, even though it's

1154
01:01:49,200 --> 01:01:50,840
Speaker 2: three and a half, it's Washington or nothing. I mean,

1155
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:55,000
Speaker 2: they they struggled against that Bears defense. I expected them too.

1156
01:01:55,080 --> 01:01:57,920
Speaker 2: Now Daniel's gonna be healthier. I just don't trust this

1157
01:01:57,960 --> 01:02:00,439
Speaker 2: Giant team at home. The under is probab to play

1158
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:02,640
Speaker 2: just because the Giants don't show up. But yeah, I

1159
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 2: think it would be Washington in the under would be

1160
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:07,000
Speaker 2: the two points for me? What about you?

1161
01:02:07,440 --> 01:02:09,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I can't get to this number, so

1162
01:02:09,680 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 4: I should play the Giants.

1163
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:13,680
Speaker 2: But I also actually don't want to play the Giants here.

1164
01:02:13,800 --> 01:02:16,000
Speaker 2: You don't want to play the Giants, not without Andrew Thomas.

1165
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:21,480
Speaker 4: And I mean Tracy's a huge loss. He's provided such

1166
01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:26,000
Speaker 4: a spark to that offense. The you're gonna the thing?

1167
01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:28,240
Speaker 4: This game is hard to figure out for me because yeah,

1168
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:31,200
Speaker 4: maybe I'm just I still have an adjusted Washington enough

1169
01:02:32,320 --> 01:02:36,600
Speaker 4: and I have bought into their offense, but it's their defense,

1170
01:02:36,680 --> 01:02:38,919
Speaker 4: Like how is the defense I told you this last week?

1171
01:02:39,400 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 4: Like their defense is trending up, like their first impressure

1172
01:02:42,920 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 4: rate over the past four weeks, Like they're playing at

1173
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 4: like a top ten level over the past month. So

1174
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:52,760
Speaker 4: the truth is probably somewhere in the middle from like, hey,

1175
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:54,760
Speaker 4: this is a bottom three defense as we saw over

1176
01:02:54,800 --> 01:03:01,880
Speaker 4: in the year, there's yeah, I mean so, but I

1177
01:03:01,960 --> 01:03:03,760
Speaker 4: lean over because I don't I think that the Giants

1178
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:06,680
Speaker 4: probably should be able to score.

1179
01:03:07,880 --> 01:03:10,760
Speaker 2: Without Andrew Thomas bro this team last week.

1180
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 4: They they last week they put four hundred yards on

1181
01:03:12,720 --> 01:03:13,280
Speaker 4: the Steelers.

1182
01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:16,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, and now they're going back home where they don't

1183
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 2: do anything.

1184
01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 4: You just got to what they are and then it's outdoors.

1185
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:26,919
Speaker 4: The second divisional matchup is the favor of the Unders

1186
01:03:26,920 --> 01:03:29,880
Speaker 4: because of familiarity. So on the surface, there's some things

1187
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:31,360
Speaker 4: I like about the Over. I think the Stummer is

1188
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:35,640
Speaker 4: a bit short, but all the other ancillary factors, No thanks.

1189
01:03:35,920 --> 01:03:38,600
Speaker 4: The number. I think there's some guy in the Giants,

1190
01:03:38,600 --> 01:03:41,320
Speaker 4: but I could just be off on that, and the

1191
01:03:41,360 --> 01:03:43,360
Speaker 4: Giants at home and Daniel Jones at home, it's just

1192
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:46,040
Speaker 4: a disaster, So no thanks.

1193
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:51,360
Speaker 2: Washington forty Giants three. All right, just going to wrap

1194
01:03:51,400 --> 01:03:57,400
Speaker 2: it up for our week nine Action Network podcast. Thank

1195
01:03:57,440 --> 01:03:59,160
Speaker 2: you for listening. You can hear more of me every

1196
01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:02,280
Speaker 2: week with my guys Sean Kerner, Tuck and Fantasy DFS

1197
01:04:02,360 --> 01:04:06,320
Speaker 2: Player Projections, all that good stuff on the Fantasy Flex podcast,

1198
01:04:06,360 --> 01:04:09,400
Speaker 2: And of course Stuck talks college football every week over

1199
01:04:09,520 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 2: on Big Bets on Campus. Stuck is on X at

1200
01:04:12,920 --> 01:04:15,720
Speaker 2: Stuckey two. I'm at Chris Raybon and we're at those

1201
01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:20,200
Speaker 2: same handles on a free award winning Action Network app

1202
01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:33,040
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1203
01:04:33,200 --> 01:04:36,200
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1204
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:39,480
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1205
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:42,320
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1206
01:04:42,440 --> 01:04:43,240
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