WEBVTT - Jeff Currie Talks Energy and Commodities

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Slationary pressures. But let's begin with a focus on the

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<v Speaker 2>oil markets.

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<v Speaker 1>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>Prices have rallied since late last year and escalating tensions

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<v Speaker 2>in the Middle East. Some analysts say that one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>dollars a barrel is back on the cards. While joining

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<v Speaker 2>us now I'm delighted is Jeff Curry, chief strategy officer

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<v Speaker 2>of the Energy Pathways at Carlisle, a former head of

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<v Speaker 2>Kamanti's research at Golden Sachs. I mean, you understand, welcome

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<v Speaker 2>to the program. Great, Jeff, you understand these Kamanities really

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<v Speaker 2>like no one else. I want to get your thoughts

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<v Speaker 2>on oil off the highs. Does that reflect the fact

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<v Speaker 2>that traders are less worried about the Middle East and

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<v Speaker 2>has escalating conflict or is it supplying demand issues?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, obviously if you look at the pullback recently, we're

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<v Speaker 3>back to the levels before the events of what happened

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<v Speaker 3>between Iran and Israel a week and a half ago.

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<v Speaker 3>But more importantly, everything's off. Commodities are going through a

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<v Speaker 3>consolidation period. You know, we were beginning to price in

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<v Speaker 3>equities every thing. This idea of rates being higher for longer.

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<v Speaker 3>But let me remind everybody we're talking about rates being

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<v Speaker 3>higher for longer because growth is so good. I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>I just the things you just went over just now,

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<v Speaker 3>private sector activity in Europe the highest level in the year.

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<v Speaker 3>We're seeing a reacceleration of growth across the board. And

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<v Speaker 3>so when I think about what's going on oil specifically

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<v Speaker 3>in commodities and they I'll put bitcoin in there, and

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<v Speaker 3>all the physical assets is they're going through a consolidation period.

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<v Speaker 3>These assets, these physical assets are tied to underlying growth

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<v Speaker 3>and inflationary pressures. In the bottom line, retail sales was

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<v Speaker 3>smashing that we saw that. You know last week, you

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<v Speaker 3>have unemployment still at very low levels, CPI surprise to

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<v Speaker 3>the upside, Chinese manufacturing beginning to accelerate, Europe, Germany accelerate,

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<v Speaker 3>and the list goes on.

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<v Speaker 4>This is classic late cycle expansion that you and I

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<v Speaker 4>were talking about three months ago.

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<v Speaker 2>So what you're telling me is that there's a shift

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<v Speaker 2>basically in the supply demand equation.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that right?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I wouldn't say it's so much a shift today

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<v Speaker 3>as it was when we were talking three months ago.

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<v Speaker 3>What we went through in twenty twenty two and twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty three is your classic mid cycle pause. The economy

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<v Speaker 3>adjusts to the higher rates and the higher energy and

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<v Speaker 3>commodity prices. It went through that adjustment, manufacturing slowed down.

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<v Speaker 4>Now we're coming out of it.

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<v Speaker 3>And is this thing any different than a previous cycles.

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<v Speaker 4>No?

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<v Speaker 2>But Jeff, if you look at so the rates expectations

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<v Speaker 2>for the FED right higher for longer, and I know

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<v Speaker 2>this is because growth is wrong, but does it have

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<v Speaker 2>a harmful effect on commodities at all?

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<v Speaker 3>Look, well, this is why why I'm always why you

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<v Speaker 3>want to own commodities in this environment, because if the rate,

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<v Speaker 3>if you don't have a situation in which you're raising

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<v Speaker 3>rates because of strong underlying growth, means commodities are going higher,

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<v Speaker 3>and that's what's going to force their hand to raise rates.

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<v Speaker 3>And if they do cut rates, you're adding more liquidity

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<v Speaker 3>into the system, which means higher commodities. So commodities are

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<v Speaker 3>a win win in this situation. That's why they nearly

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<v Speaker 3>always outperform all other asset classes in this environment.

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<v Speaker 2>But I'm looking at the IA they're predicting for the

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<v Speaker 2>slow down and oil demand growth next year, it's just

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<v Speaker 2>one point one million barrels a day. Right, as we

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<v Speaker 2>get closer to peak demand, do you agree with process.

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<v Speaker 3>By the way, when we look at late cycle commodities,

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<v Speaker 3>there's a really important point. It's not the growth that matters,

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<v Speaker 3>it's the level that matters.

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<v Speaker 4>And why do I say that.

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<v Speaker 3>Is because as the level of commodity demand goes up,

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<v Speaker 3>it stresses the underlying supply level.

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<v Speaker 4>So yes, the growth rates are going to slow.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and that's what will happen late, but the level

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<v Speaker 3>could continue to grow. Stresses the system puts upward pressures

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<v Speaker 3>on prices. So that and by the way, the equities,

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<v Speaker 3>which are tied to growth rates, they begin to come down.

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<v Speaker 3>So this is what I always argue over and over

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<v Speaker 3>with commodities. They are tied to the level of activity,

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<v Speaker 3>while financial markets are tied to the growth rates of activity,

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<v Speaker 3>which is why you get the outperformance.

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<v Speaker 1>Opek plus has kept supply tights. Yes, is this about

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<v Speaker 1>the backfire?

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<v Speaker 3>No, when we look at where you know that plus.

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<v Speaker 3>First of all, everybody's talking about all the spare capacity

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<v Speaker 3>in the system. It sits in Saudi Arabia, in UAE,

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<v Speaker 3>that's it. And they have more market power today than

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<v Speaker 3>they've ever had because of a lack of investment in

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<v Speaker 3>many of the different non OPEC countries.

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<v Speaker 4>And yes, you're going to respond back that, you.

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<v Speaker 3>Know, rapid growth in the US, but that compared to

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<v Speaker 3>what's going on more broadly, it's relatively small. And then

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<v Speaker 3>I think the other issue that gives them market power

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<v Speaker 3>is that you have in elastic demand because we've taken

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<v Speaker 3>out all the low hanging fruit, so that so that

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<v Speaker 3>group that sits on that spare capacity has more market

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<v Speaker 3>power today than they have had since the existence of OPEC.

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<v Speaker 1>So does oil. You know, is it eighty dollars or

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred? Next we were far.

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<v Speaker 3>Closer to one hundred. I'm not in the forecasting business anymore. Wow,

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to hit one hundred. By the way, the

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<v Speaker 3>one thing I learned in all my time, I'm looking

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<v Speaker 3>at these commodities trade the wings. This thing's gonna when

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<v Speaker 3>it goes, it goes, and when it drops, it drops.

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<v Speaker 3>And you've been doing this as long as I have,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, so the odds of this thing going over

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred or extraordinarily high. The question is how high

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<v Speaker 3>can you get before you start to see OPEK begin

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<v Speaker 3>to adjust the system.

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<v Speaker 4>By the way, I want to say this and This

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<v Speaker 4>is just history.

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<v Speaker 3>In the forty years of OPEK history and where we

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<v Speaker 3>are in the cycle. Never has OPEK ever been able

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<v Speaker 3>to bring on supply as we go into the final

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<v Speaker 3>stretches of an economic expansion and tame the oil price.

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<v Speaker 4>What happens go back? Were they able to do it

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<v Speaker 4>in twenty eighteen.

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<v Speaker 3>No, we got up to eighty eight dollars a barrow,

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<v Speaker 3>and then we had the waivers on Iran. We could

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<v Speaker 3>talk about that later. That's a very similar risk here.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think it works to the upside this time

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<v Speaker 3>around seven eight and then you can go back to

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<v Speaker 3>one two thousand. I can keep going back all the

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<v Speaker 3>way back to the distance they never because here's the point.

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<v Speaker 3>If the rise in production misses by just.

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<v Speaker 4>Five days, what are you gonna do. You're gonna get backgradation.

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<v Speaker 3>You got to get that pinpoint, that accuracy, which is

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<v Speaker 3>all by the way, If there was a group in

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<v Speaker 3>OPEC that could actually get this right this time around,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, I will say this, You know that this

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<v Speaker 3>leadership can get it right. But again I'm gonna say

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<v Speaker 3>you missed by five days, because think about what happens.

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<v Speaker 3>We know that tankers out there in the Gulf wherever

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<v Speaker 3>it is, it's coming into the refinery.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't have crew today.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm short by Let's say my inventories are five days,

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to be six days late.

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<v Speaker 4>I got a problem.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm buying crued and the backwardation goes up. Also on

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<v Speaker 3>the back gradation, another point, I want to emphasize. Everybody's

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<v Speaker 3>talking about backgradation as an indication of a political risk.

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<v Speaker 3>For geopolitical risk premium, it can't be. I always say

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<v Speaker 3>time spreads don't lie. They tell you this market is tight.

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<v Speaker 3>And another point, the market went off the board in backwardation.

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<v Speaker 3>That means there's no investors in it. It's all physical.

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<v Speaker 3>You really have a tight market here.

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<v Speaker 2>Jeff type market plus do you political risks? So let's

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<v Speaker 2>talk about her on I mean, could this actually fly

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<v Speaker 2>through the roof if something happens.

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<v Speaker 4>Oh? Absolutely, because I mean the market doesn't prepared.

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<v Speaker 1>Priced in the market is unprepared.

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<v Speaker 3>But we look at more broadly, I don't care if

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<v Speaker 3>it's energy equities, Energy commodities are more like it. There's

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<v Speaker 3>not a large investor participation. And also money today chases trends.

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<v Speaker 3>They don't make bets, they don't trade, and.

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<v Speaker 4>So there's no real trend here.

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<v Speaker 3>By the way, when it started trading, a look at copper,

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<v Speaker 3>copper overshot the fundamentals near term, they'll trade that trend.

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<v Speaker 3>But when we look at more broadly, most of the

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<v Speaker 3>discretionary money can't sit there and hold a position of

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<v Speaker 3>geol political risk premium betting. For the thing that said,

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<v Speaker 3>there is activity and out of the money options and

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<v Speaker 3>you go up to that one fifty two dollars range.

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<v Speaker 3>People are buying it because they're heading geopolitical risk, inflation risk,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know equity risk type premiums. So there is activity,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's relatively small and it's located in the options markets.

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<v Speaker 2>Jeff, I think Jpmorrian is saying that it's time for

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<v Speaker 2>a reality check on the energy transition. It's slow, costly,

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<v Speaker 2>and not rewarding for investors.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, is that how we should see it?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think we're going through that reality check right

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<v Speaker 3>now and people are making reassessing it. When we look

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<v Speaker 3>at the returns in the green sector, there's two things

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<v Speaker 3>that are driving it. One, there's a hangover from the

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<v Speaker 3>big spike we had in twenty twenty two. Let's remember

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<v Speaker 3>that when everything exploded in twenty twenty two, coal production

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<v Speaker 3>went up the size of Saudi Arabia, by the way,

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<v Speaker 3>that's how much coal we added in that environment. Gas

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<v Speaker 3>prices went negative in Europe and you know US n

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<v Speaker 3>imax natural gas and power prices reached an all time.

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<v Speaker 4>Low what's six weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 3>That's creating a headwind to the sector. And by the way,

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<v Speaker 3>cause because we ramped up coal production. The second factor

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<v Speaker 3>that's had a big impact on this is China.

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<v Speaker 4>What is China doing.

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<v Speaker 3>About their property market problem. They're rotating growth into manufacturing

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<v Speaker 3>of green capex goods and they're pushing them onto the

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<v Speaker 3>global market. And by the way, the returns aren't that great,

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<v Speaker 3>which is the problem that the equity market has had

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<v Speaker 3>in China. But I think the key key message here

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<v Speaker 3>is there there's two drivers of that weakness.

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<v Speaker 4>One a hangover from that spike.

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<v Speaker 3>In twenty twenty two in what China is currently doing.

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<v Speaker 3>Both of these are temporary, you know, longer term there

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<v Speaker 3>is a story here.

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<v Speaker 1>And temporary a couple of years or temporary ten years.

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<v Speaker 4>By way, it's been temporary for two and a half years.

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<v Speaker 4>If you look at the.

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<v Speaker 3>Peak, you know, you know, in fact, by the way

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<v Speaker 3>that report Christian did I thought was phenomenal, but you

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<v Speaker 3>know he has a chart in there.

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<v Speaker 4>Ye.

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<v Speaker 3>This has been going on for two and a half years.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not something just cropped up in the last couple

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<v Speaker 3>of days. So you know that we're going through that

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<v Speaker 3>rough patch. But I think the longer term outlook is

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<v Speaker 3>still very positive for the sector.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, we'll talk about that longer term outlook, could Jeff?

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you so mu Jeff Curry from Carlisle stays with

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<v Speaker 2>us for a look at some of the broader Kamaniti

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<v Speaker 2>themes and sectors, including also the rating.

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<v Speaker 1>Gold and medals. This is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome back to our deep dive from the energy and

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<v Speaker 2>commanity sector.

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<v Speaker 1>We've looked at oil. Let's now talk about the routing

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<v Speaker 1>golden medals.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, the index of all six base metals on the

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<v Speaker 2>LME has gained more than thirteen percent this month on

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<v Speaker 2>a better global manufacturing outlook, Investors will remain cautious on

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<v Speaker 2>future moves by the Fed. Meanwhile, gold extending losses after

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<v Speaker 2>its biggest daily decline in almost two years following a

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<v Speaker 2>stunning rally in the haven asset. Now let's bring back

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<v Speaker 2>Jeff Curry from Carl, Jeff, I want to talk to

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<v Speaker 2>you about copper gold.

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<v Speaker 1>What is gold? Right now?

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<v Speaker 4>By the way, gold is a mystery.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm i going to say I got it, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>and understand it because if you look at the drivers fundamentally,

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<v Speaker 3>usually what drives higher gold are lower reel rates or

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<v Speaker 3>a weaker dollar.

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<v Speaker 4>What are we actually seeing. We're seeing higher real rates.

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<v Speaker 3>And a stronger dollar, and typically gold goes down that

0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:56.040
<v Speaker 3>when we look at it, clearly there's a mysterious buyer

0:10:56.080 --> 0:10:58.000
<v Speaker 3>out there. You can see it in the physical premia.

0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:02.000
<v Speaker 3>It's most likely coming through Dubai. You see it in

0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:06.000
<v Speaker 3>the OTC market. Historically, when we see that and you

0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:08.360
<v Speaker 3>get the data three or four months down the road,

0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:11.280
<v Speaker 3>you find out it was an emerging market. You know,

0:11:11.440 --> 0:11:13.760
<v Speaker 3>probably unlikely Russia is they just dig up their goal

0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:15.720
<v Speaker 3>put it into the central bank because they got so

0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:18.760
<v Speaker 3>much underneath the ground. But you know, you know, is

0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:21.079
<v Speaker 3>it China, is it India or somebody like that?

0:11:21.679 --> 0:11:24.200
<v Speaker 2>Who knows what fly Is this a play against treasuries

0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:26.800
<v Speaker 2>or trying not to buy treasury or could it be complexe.

0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:28.880
<v Speaker 4>I would argue it's probably an inflationary hedge.

0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:31.560
<v Speaker 3>I want to emphasize gold traded like this in the

0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:36.160
<v Speaker 3>nineteen seventies, So what we're seeing here in this dynamic

0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:39.520
<v Speaker 3>is not completely unfamiliar territory. You just got to go

0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:42.040
<v Speaker 3>back four decades to see a period similar to this.

0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:45.000
<v Speaker 3>So I would argue, you know, and you and you

0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.200
<v Speaker 3>look at bitcoin too. Both of them are, you know,

0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:50.440
<v Speaker 3>the strongest performers out there. I argue they're pricing in

0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:53.040
<v Speaker 3>inflation risk. But the other thing both they're pricing in

0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:57.199
<v Speaker 3>is liquidity problems. Liquidity risk, particularly in the financial markets, Yeah.

0:11:57.000 --> 0:11:59.599
<v Speaker 2>Which which have come to fruition, or it's something that

0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:02.360
<v Speaker 2>they're just happy.

0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:05.040
<v Speaker 3>You know, one thing I can say, it's bitcoins a

0:12:05.080 --> 0:12:08.080
<v Speaker 3>measure of liquidity out there. And you know, part of

0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:10.640
<v Speaker 3>the reason the volatility you've seen across the space, not

0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:13.200
<v Speaker 3>only in commodities, but in financial markets.

0:12:13.679 --> 0:12:15.360
<v Speaker 4>You know, liquidity still remains low.

0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:17.880
<v Speaker 2>Deeff talking to me about copper, so it's had quite

0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:19.840
<v Speaker 2>a strong run. I think it's right on the cost

0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:23.040
<v Speaker 2>of ten thousand dollars a ton. We talked about the

0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.959
<v Speaker 2>energy transition. I mean, is this a signal that we

0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:27.719
<v Speaker 2>could be there? I know you said, you know, we've

0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:29.480
<v Speaker 2>been waiting for two years and a half.

0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:30.920
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, yeah, had time it.

0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:32.280
<v Speaker 2>You know.

0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:34.600
<v Speaker 3>By the way, I want to point out, we got

0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:37.320
<v Speaker 3>bullish on corn in two thousand and six off of

0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:42.679
<v Speaker 3>the biofuel story. Corn didn't perform till twenty twelve, but

0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:46.360
<v Speaker 3>it went straight up, by the way. But copper typically

0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:48.640
<v Speaker 3>trades like a stair step, and we just went through

0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:53.360
<v Speaker 3>one of the stairsteps. So now the difference between copper

0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:55.640
<v Speaker 3>and oil oil has bagradation.

0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.240
<v Speaker 4>That's telling you it's fundamentally tight on the front end.

0:12:58.320 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 3>And again I'm going to emphasize it off the board

0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:03.439
<v Speaker 3>and back gradation. There's no investors going off the board

0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:07.440
<v Speaker 3>and back gradation. In copper, we're a little bit of

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:09.960
<v Speaker 3>contango on the front end, which is telling you it's

0:13:09.960 --> 0:13:12.000
<v Speaker 3>pricing medium to longer term stories.

0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:13.079
<v Speaker 4>So yes, you've.

0:13:12.880 --> 0:13:16.480
<v Speaker 3>Had the upward draft of everything under this higher for longer.

0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.480
<v Speaker 3>You know, grows surprise that we're dealing with. I'm not

0:13:19.520 --> 0:13:21.839
<v Speaker 3>going to call it a surprise. It's your typical lates.

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:23.960
<v Speaker 1>You call it, not others.

0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:27.840
<v Speaker 3>But in terms of thinking about what copper and the

0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:32.200
<v Speaker 3>metals are pricing, it's pricing a more medium, longer term story,

0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:36.920
<v Speaker 3>which brings us back to the whole question around energy transition,

0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:39.760
<v Speaker 3>because you know, we've all been making the argument, you know,

0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.640
<v Speaker 3>going back, copper is the new oil, and stand by

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.200
<v Speaker 3>that that that view. Because we're going to electrify everything,

0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:48.280
<v Speaker 3>you're gonna need need the copper to do it.

0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:49.880
<v Speaker 4>And so most likely it's pricing that in.

0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 3>But even there, like oil, that's going through a consolidation

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.840
<v Speaker 3>period because the price got ahead of the fundamentals. But

0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.800
<v Speaker 3>longer term, absolutely believer in that. And by the way,

0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 3>underlying demand for copper, despite the weakness in the property

0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.920
<v Speaker 3>market in China, is still healthy because think about what

0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:09.080
<v Speaker 3>we were just talking about, all of those green CAPEX

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.200
<v Speaker 3>goods in China that are being subsidized, and then you

0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 3>have all the investment that's occurring in the West and

0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:18.000
<v Speaker 3>it really starts to accelerate in twenty six and twenty seven.

0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:20.760
<v Speaker 1>If you have the energy transition and you have AI.

0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:24.960
<v Speaker 2>So as we use AI, our mobile phones get more complicated,

0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.040
<v Speaker 2>we're also going to be you know, using some of

0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:29.040
<v Speaker 2>the rare earths or even some of the things that

0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.680
<v Speaker 2>you follow very close, some of these metals, like how

0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:33.000
<v Speaker 2>do you see that complex.

0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:36.320
<v Speaker 3>All AI is chips and copper, and what are the

0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:41.080
<v Speaker 3>chips gallium and germanium so it is basically critical.

0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:42.040
<v Speaker 4>Metals and copper.

0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:44.680
<v Speaker 3>So you know, you know it's in the that is

0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:48.400
<v Speaker 3>the bottleneck to really be able to make the investment

0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:52.720
<v Speaker 3>in in AI. In fact, you know everybody goes well,

0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:56.680
<v Speaker 3>AI and energy are the two most investible themes. Well,

0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.440
<v Speaker 3>energy is more investible than AI because you need the

0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:00.880
<v Speaker 3>energy to get to the AI.

0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:02.760
<v Speaker 4>Here's a stat for you.

0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:07.480
<v Speaker 3>One GPU, one of the Vidio GPUs, consumes as much

0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:11.200
<v Speaker 3>electricity as the average American household. Now let's go start

0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:13.960
<v Speaker 3>building enormous data centers. You could be up to one

0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 3>hundred megawatts of for you know the demand out there,

0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 3>So you know this is significant. And you know, I

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.400
<v Speaker 3>really believe when we think about the forward demand or

0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:26.600
<v Speaker 3>the structural story, it's more bullish today post this AI

0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 3>boom that we've seen over the last twelve months than

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:30.240
<v Speaker 3>it was eighteen months ago.

0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 2>But after decades of under investment, is there now danger

0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:35.640
<v Speaker 2>that they're over investing and actually we'll have too much

0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 2>of it?

0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:40.040
<v Speaker 4>Absolutely not. And by the way, here's the point is.

0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:42.160
<v Speaker 3>You know people say to me, oh, look at all

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:45.360
<v Speaker 3>the investment in green energy, and I'm going to cite

0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:47.480
<v Speaker 3>a number. I think it was two point three trillion

0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 3>in the numbers that Christian you know, in that report

0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:53.720
<v Speaker 3>he did. You know, when you look at the need,

0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:55.960
<v Speaker 3>you know, like I know, Goldman put out a number

0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:59.320
<v Speaker 3>somewhere around between fifteen and twenty trillion dollars this decade alone,

0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:03.280
<v Speaker 3>You're not even scratching the surface of how much investment

0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 3>we actually need to be able to achieve this. So

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.320
<v Speaker 3>I stand by the under investment thesis. And also remember

0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:12.640
<v Speaker 3>greening represents somewhere around eighteen percent of the overall energy.

0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:15.880
<v Speaker 3>Brown represents eighty two percent, and we have not been

0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:18.200
<v Speaker 3>investing that we're under invested. And that's really the core

0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:21.480
<v Speaker 3>of the supercycle story or the revenge of the old economy,

0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:22.680
<v Speaker 3>is that lack of investment.

0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:24.880
<v Speaker 2>Finally, I mean I can speak to you for those

0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:27.040
<v Speaker 2>three hours, but I know you do have business to do.

0:16:27.480 --> 0:16:30.280
<v Speaker 2>Gasoline prices in the US are they critical in the

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:31.160
<v Speaker 2>US election year?

0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:32.600
<v Speaker 4>Absolutely? Yes.

0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:36.480
<v Speaker 3>And you know, when you look at what are the

0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:39.960
<v Speaker 3>most important issues facing voters, particularly in the US, the

0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 3>dominant one is the economy and inflation.

0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:44.000
<v Speaker 4>And by the way, the.

0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.400
<v Speaker 3>One thing nobody's been talking about that is in that

0:16:46.480 --> 0:16:49.520
<v Speaker 3>aid bill at ninety five billion dollars, Aid bill more

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:53.320
<v Speaker 3>sanctions on Iran around vessels, refining and how they handle

0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:56.600
<v Speaker 3>the Iranian crewd I would say, the one way out

0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:58.280
<v Speaker 3>waivers and remember.

0:16:58.040 --> 0:16:59.840
<v Speaker 4>We started this twenty eighteen. What a Trump.

0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.360
<v Speaker 3>So Waivers will be able to manage it as you

0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:04.320
<v Speaker 3>go into that election.

0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:06.679
<v Speaker 2>So interesting, Jeff, thank you so much, as always for

0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:08.560
<v Speaker 2>giving us a little bit of your time. Jeff Curry,

0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:12.840
<v Speaker 2>there's chief strategy officer of Energy Pathways at Carlisle