1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: This is a joy. She is a Columbia university in 7 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 2: for years with golden sas Abbie Joseph Cohen joins us 8 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,479 Speaker 2: now in an important time for the nation. Abby, let 9 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 2: me go out to sixty thousand feet with this administration, 10 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:46,879 Speaker 2: with the ying and yang almost of this old administration 11 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 2: to new and all, do we risk giving up American productivity? 12 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 2: For whatever reason? Are we close to where we upset 13 00:00:56,560 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 2: the long term glow in a f of America? 14 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 3: Tom, I know that you've always had this focus on productivity, 15 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 3: and I'm glad that you do because, as you and 16 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 3: I both know, long term economic growth and long term 17 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 3: wealth creation. And I'm talking about national wealth, personal wealth 18 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 3: rather than stock market erratic wealth is very much related 19 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 3: to productivity. And I do think that some decisions that 20 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 3: have been made and continue to be made right now 21 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 3: will be damaging the nation's long term productivity growth. I'll 22 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 3: give you a few examples. First of all, even during 23 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 3: prior administrations, we were seeing that our national investment in 24 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 3: science and technology as a percentage of GDP had gone down, 25 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 3: and it has gone down even further during the last 26 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 3: few months. Cancelation just yesterday for example, or excuse me, 27 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 3: postponement rather of all NIH grants announced yesterday is an 28 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 3: indication of loss of productivity future productivity in the bio 29 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 3: BioResearch area. We've also seen enormous cutbacks in grants from 30 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 3: the National Science Foundation, NASA and so on, and these 31 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,119 Speaker 3: are the things that really gave us a leg up 32 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 3: in terms of our technology, especially with regard to things 33 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 3: like computer science and a number of other categories that 34 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 3: are going to be so critical for the future. 35 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 4: Happy we're going to hear from the Federal Reserve Bank today, 36 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 4: and as you know, so much cross currents out there 37 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,840 Speaker 4: and probably some political pressures that this is a this 38 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 4: FED has not had to deal with for a very 39 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 4: very long time. What do you expect to hear today? 40 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 3: I think, like everyone else, I will be on tender hooks, 41 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: but I think the consensus probably has it right that 42 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 3: the FED for the time being would like to hold 43 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,799 Speaker 3: tight on interest rate policy. Keep in mind that even 44 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 3: the GDP report this morning had those cross currents in it. 45 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 3: The top line might have looked good, but things like 46 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 3: real final sales are showing signs of deceleration, consumer spending decelerating, 47 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 3: and very importantly, back to Tom's question about productivity, we 48 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 3: see that business investment capex, for example, is also slowing. 49 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 3: And these are things that we need to be watching carefully. 50 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 3: But let's remember that the FED is under pressure not 51 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 3: just on interest rate policy, but on some other things, 52 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:45,559 Speaker 3: including its very important supervisory and regulatory function within financial services. 53 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 3: And then, of course there are the questions about the building. 54 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 3: I would say that I worked in two of those 55 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 3: buildings and they were in desperate need of renovation, experate renovation. 56 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 4: So again, so abby. When you think about, you know, 57 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 4: these markets here today and some of the trade policies 58 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 4: that maybe the market's trying to discount here, the political issues, 59 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 4: the geopolitical issues for topics around the world. Are you 60 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 4: surprised that the equity market snapped back as well as 61 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 4: it did, and we're talking about new all time highs 62 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 4: on a daily basis. 63 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 3: Well, As you point out, the equity market did snap 64 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 3: back especially after those announcements in April, and I think 65 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 3: the key reason for it has been that economic data 66 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 3: has been okay. As I mentioned before, there are now 67 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 3: some signs of deceleration, but certainly procession and corporate profits 68 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 3: have been quite robust. Particularly it's in sectors that have 69 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 3: been favored. I think that the real question will be 70 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 3: in the second half of this year once we see 71 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 3: what happens as companies are now beginning to adjust for 72 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 3: the tariff policies they see, for example, the announcements just 73 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 3: over the last yeays Procter and Gamble and Hershey and 74 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 3: of course some of these pharmacy companies. 75 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 2: Abby Joseph Cohen with US of Columbia and of course 76 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 2: decades of Goldman Sex. Abby, Are you a bull in 77 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 2: this oddest of markets where people you and I know 78 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 2: in respect have ten holdings that are forty even fifty 79 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 2: percent of their portfolio. Is this a legitimate bull market 80 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 2: that you can believe in? 81 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 3: This is a legitimate bull market. The question is how 82 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 3: much further can it go? The concentration that we've seen 83 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 3: in a small number of extremely well performing shares, and 84 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 3: of course the valuation valuations are just not all that appealing. 85 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 3: If we look at the S and P five hundred overall, 86 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 3: it is, you know, sort of at record deciles visa 87 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 3: pe price to sales, price to book, and so on. 88 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:03,040 Speaker 3: Doesn't mean that there are some value opportunities, but I 89 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 3: think that investors really need to be very careful. And 90 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 3: one of the things that I always go back to 91 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 3: is that when the market is undervalued, when the market 92 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 3: is too cheap and there are disappointments perhaps on economics 93 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 3: or geopolitics, the market has shock absorbers. But when things 94 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 3: are already priced for perfection, then you really need to 95 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 3: be careful because that's when the volatility picks up. And 96 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 3: we have seen, for example, that when there are those 97 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 3: periods in which it's not clear what economic policy will 98 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 3: be or what's happening in the rest of the world, 99 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 3: we do see that volatility picking up, and volatility works 100 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 3: in both directions, not just up but also down. 101 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 4: Abby what have you seen so far and what do 102 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 4: you expect to see in the second quarter earnings that 103 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 4: we're dealing with at the moment. 104 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 3: The second quarter earnings have actually been quite good, and 105 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,919 Speaker 3: that I'm sure is a relief to many people. My focus, however, 106 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 3: has on guidance. What are these companies telling us about 107 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 3: the future. And we are hearing more and more companies 108 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:13,679 Speaker 3: saying they are concerned about tariffs. They've not been forced, 109 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 3: if you will, to focus in detail on it, because 110 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 3: nobody really knows what the tariff structure is going to be. 111 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 3: There's been a sigh of relief that the tariff of 112 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 3: focus will not be as high as it might have 113 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 3: been in April. But where we are right now fifteen 114 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 3: to eighteen percent on average expectation for tariff rates, that's 115 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 3: extremely high, that smooth Hawley level. And the comments that 116 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 3: have been made by some saying, oh, look how much 117 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 3: money we're collecting from tariffs, that's great, it's going to 118 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,119 Speaker 3: help us on the deficit. Well, I would say, hold 119 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 3: on a second. Those tariffs are being collected in large 120 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 3: part from American businesses and American consumers. It's a sales tax, 121 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 3: and it's something that is not helpful for economic growth. 122 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 3: Thus far, what we have seen in corporate reports is 123 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 3: that companies willing to absorb to this point, but as 124 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 3: they have a better sense of what the tarips will 125 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 3: really be, they may adjust their policies. 126 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 2: Having I got twenty seconds it's one hundred degrees out 127 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 2: Ken olvetch can do it one more year for the 128 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 2: Washington Capitals. 129 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 3: I certainly hope. So I've got my jersey ready. 130 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 2: Very good Abby, and thank you so much. With Columbia 131 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 2: University sitting right behind the bench in Washington Capitals opening 132 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 2: that it'll be in October. I believe first week of 133 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 2: October is the tradition. 134 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 135 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. E's durn Listen 136 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 137 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 138 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:02,959 Speaker 2: Studying me, I an't who was silber member with this 139 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 2: now our RBC Capital Markets into the great fundamental analysis 140 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 2: the mathematics of Abby Joseph Cohen at Columbia University when 141 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 2: you were coming up and I was the same way. 142 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 2: How did you study Abby Joseph Cohen? She was asconsdin 143 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 2: gold and Sacks, hugely active within the CFA Institute. How 144 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 2: did you study the applied mathematics of Abby Joseph Cohen? 145 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 5: Well, first I was at Goldman and you know, Abby 146 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 5: Joseph Cohen was the star. So it's very cool. 147 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 6: Did you ever speak to her? 148 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 5: I was too afraid that was like a lowly associate 149 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 5: in the Derivas research department. I just you know, I 150 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 5: looked from afar. But you know one thing I appreciated 151 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 5: and that became part of the background is like a 152 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 5: lot of the white paper analysis is kind of the fundamentals. 153 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 5: It creates the background for a lot of our analysis 154 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 5: going forward, looking at back test, looking at systematic factors, 155 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 5: and that's our framework now at rbcun Derivetives. 156 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:08,480 Speaker 4: We look at the VIX here. Tom makes us look 157 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 4: at the VIXI beats us over the head every day. 158 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 7: You looking at the vix. 159 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 4: What it's here at below sixteen? It just feels like 160 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 4: it should be higher than that. I don't know, it's 161 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:20,680 Speaker 4: crazy out there, but we have a vix. It seems 162 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:21,440 Speaker 4: pretty benign here. 163 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 2: How do you think about that's? 164 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 5: It looks completely benign. You know, I've been joking that 165 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 5: I've got to bring back my paddling duck market analogy 166 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 5: because I think it still suits the market here. 167 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 4: Look. 168 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 5: The one fact I would add though, is that realize 169 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 5: volatilely so thirty day SMP realize volatility is eight. So 170 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 5: if you look at that volatility risk premium, it's actually 171 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 5: fairly fat. But you know, our joke on the team 172 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 5: has been it's a good time to rent Gamma, it's 173 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 5: a good time to Essentially, it just means it's a 174 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:53,560 Speaker 5: good time to own a little bit of the idea 175 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 5: that volatility could increase from here, because just given what 176 00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 5: you guys just said, think about the heavy weights reporting today, 177 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 5: think about what Al could say today. And yet we're 178 00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 5: implying an S and P straddle that suggests nothing's going 179 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 5: to happen today. 180 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 2: Within the idea of betting on more volatility, betting on 181 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 2: more acceleration, if you will, in price change. Is there 182 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 2: a bet in this summer? Is there a bet on 183 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 2: Wall Street? Are people exposed? 184 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 5: So there is not a bet? Now there is a bet. 185 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 5: We've talked about this before Tom longer term, so more 186 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 5: in those October through December buckets, you're starting to see 187 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 5: more hedging activity. But my one fun fact is when 188 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 5: you look at August over the last decade, VIX typically 189 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 5: rises about eighteen percent. August is a volatilely potthole month. 190 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 5: It's a month where folks go one vacation. Investors maybe 191 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,680 Speaker 5: not as much at their desk, you get those liquidity vacuums, 192 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,199 Speaker 5: and maybe you get an August fifth where VIC spikes 193 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 5: to you know, the sixties that's happened before. We're not 194 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 5: prepared for that where we're still in July and we're 195 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 5: happy as a clam. 196 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 4: So, I mean, I've been in this market game since 197 00:11:58,000 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 4: eighty six. 198 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 7: October. 199 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 4: I don't like those periods. I mean I was on 200 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 4: the stock exchange floor in eighty seven. 201 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:05,240 Speaker 2: Not good. 202 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 4: How do you think about that? Do you see clients 203 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 4: positioning for volatility and the follow when people maybe. 204 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 2: Do get back to their desks. 205 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think essentially clients are planning on positioning, but 206 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 5: they have not yet because it's a little too early 207 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 5: and the name of the game and options is not 208 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 5: to have to burn premium. But what I'll tell you 209 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 5: is there's been kind of too divergent narratives. Right, So 210 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 5: the retail population has all has been about by the dip. 211 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:37,440 Speaker 5: It has worked for them, but there's always been this 212 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 5: institutional angst. It really hasn't gone away. It's gone away, 213 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 5: it has not. I think it's just being very tactical 214 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 5: about one to deploy it. 215 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 2: And this is so critical. If they are behind if 216 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 2: their angst has not gone away. What's the emotion of 217 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 2: institutions when they're oops, it's August or behind? 218 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 4: Yeah? 219 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 2: Are they like retail where they're like, let's get on board, 220 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 2: hold your nose, let's buy apple or whatever. 221 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 4: You know. 222 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 5: The one thing we've seen in financial history since COVID 223 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,240 Speaker 5: is it's not just a left tail risk. There's also 224 00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 5: this right tail risk. And it's very real, Like you 225 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 5: can no longer think of it as something that occasionally happens, 226 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 5: like you've you've now gotten a May twenty twenty one. 227 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 5: These meme crazes, right, these are very real risks that you, 228 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 5: as a portfolio manager are just as exposed to. If 229 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:31,719 Speaker 5: your benchmark runs away from you, You're you're hedging on 230 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 5: the upside as much as you're hedding on the downside. 231 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 2: Tom Amy was silveran with US RBC Capital Markt's thrilled 232 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 2: to have her with US. Ebby Joseph Cohen joining us 233 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 2: in about twenty minute here ready green on the screen 234 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 2: the vics fifteen six. 235 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 4: So you mentioned meme stocks and Amy. Whenever I see that, 236 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 4: and we see it from time to time, that to 237 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 4: me is a red flag that all right, this market's 238 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 4: getting a little silly here, and how do you pros 239 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 4: think about it? Because just from a lay person, when 240 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 4: I see that stuff, I get nervous. 241 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 5: I'd say two things. The first is, and I'll bring 242 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,439 Speaker 5: this back to game stop. So the reason game stop 243 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 5: became an issue for the broader market was at one 244 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 5: point was actually forty percent of all of the XRT. 245 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 5: So the retail etf it started to become a benchmark 246 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 5: risk for folks who didn't want to have anything to 247 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 5: do with it. I'd have investors tell me I don't care, 248 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 5: this is a side show. But then they're starting to 249 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 5: get that concentration risk in the benchmark. We're not there yet. 250 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 5: It's been a little bit of you know, a storm 251 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 5: and a tea kettle. But if that starts to spread, 252 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 5: you better believe again that right tail risk is going 253 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 5: to spread and people have to catch it. 254 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 2: I look at the math, the math, and let's go 255 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 2: to the cross moments. Folks, we're not going to get 256 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 2: into it. It's the summer. My head's hurting. But if 257 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 2: you look at the variant study, the cortosis study, the 258 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 2: rest of it is the math working right now. 259 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 5: For pros, you know, I think one thing that all 260 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 5: us folks who work in the rivers have to do, 261 00:14:58,240 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 5: and you know this is a slugs You got to 262 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 5: date these spreadsheets. Maybe AI can help, but that the 263 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 5: rise of zero data xpre trading really just changes how 264 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 5: we have to think about things. You know, we used 265 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 5: to have the standard monitor that's one month, three months, 266 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 5: six months, twelve month, that's your standard substructure. It kind 267 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 5: of has to be right because everything's happening in such 268 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 5: shorter duration. You know, I've kind of called it this 269 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 5: theme of duration shrinkage, meaning we're getting just as much 270 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 5: activity to. 271 00:15:24,640 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 2: LEB is that then on theta the X axis is 272 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 2: the advantage because of the focus short term to make 273 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 2: your bets out longer term is now seen to LEB 274 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 2: took small, longer term bets. 275 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, so you can get. What I will say is 276 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 5: the reason I think zero data XPRA is a healing 277 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 5: is because you get less of that problem with fatal, 278 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 5: a less of that carry problem. But what it has 279 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 5: also done is people are paying less attention I think 280 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 5: to the longer tenors which have been telling us something 281 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 5: this entire time. So I think it has sliced bow 282 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 5: ways and what you know what you want to deploy. 283 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 5: I think it really depends on your risk framework. 284 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 4: We're going to hear from a couple of big stocks 285 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 4: after the closed day, Microsoft and Meta Slash Facebook, and 286 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 4: that kind of goes to the concern that some people 287 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 4: have about concentration risk in this market? How has that 288 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 4: expressed AAR is your market? The derivatives market? Is that 289 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 4: concern about concentration risk? Is that there? And are people 290 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 4: trying to hedge it? Somehow? 291 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 5: It's one hundred percent there? And so one thing we 292 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 5: like to look at is to think about, you know, 293 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 5: one of our other themes is just how the meat 294 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 5: is made really matters. You know, what's in that sausage 295 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 5: and so you get I'll just give an example. I'll 296 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 5: give a component like XLC. So the SMP Communications ETF. 297 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 5: You go into your Bloomberg and you go to MMB 298 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 5: and what do you find there? Two to three stocks 299 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 5: max right, And so some of the opportunities that we 300 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 5: think are interesting is to essentially own the options of 301 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 5: the ETFs where it's essentially the same meat, but it's 302 00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 5: not pricing as. 303 00:16:58,440 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 7: If it is. 304 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 2: Certainly your famous line here how the meat is made 305 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 2: is a general statement you could go in cash market, 306 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 2: buy the ETF buy whatever by Nvidia, or you can 307 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 2: buy the option, which is basically four to one leverage. 308 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:16,400 Speaker 2: You're using one quarter the cash as a simplistic statement. 309 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 2: Or you could buy futures ages ago before you were born, 310 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 2: or it would be ten to one. You'd put up 311 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 2: one tenth the money. Is there an implied leverage there 312 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 2: based on how the meat is being made today? 313 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 3: Sure? 314 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 5: And so one thing I'll say that's interesting about Nvidia, 315 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 5: And this is why I think when people ask me 316 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 5: are we at peak froth? I say no, because if 317 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 5: we were, we'd start to see that call exuberance in 318 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 5: Nvidia the same way we saw it in May twenty 319 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 5: twenty one, which which is when you have to start 320 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 5: worrying about that right tail risk. It's very clear right 321 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 5: now we are not pricing that way. Why I think 322 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 5: because you know, like this one, the meme crazes its 323 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 5: own thing right now, it hasn't spread. But two, there 324 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 5: still are these institutional concerns that have not gone away, 325 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 5: about tariff transmission, about valuation, about a whole host of 326 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 5: other things that again you don't see the near term, 327 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 5: but have not changed from the longer terms. 328 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 4: You've mentioned ETFs several times this morning here. How pervasive 329 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 4: are atfs. It's part of just deris trading and hedging 330 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:21,679 Speaker 4: and that kind of stuff. 331 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 5: I mean, ETFs kind of trade like water, so something 332 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 5: like the cues or spy you you know, from an 333 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 5: options perspective, these are just as active as your big 334 00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 5: mag seven names. And then in options it gets even 335 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 5: more fun because there it's not triple lever at all 336 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 5: cash time, it's actually just triple lever queues or in 337 00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 5: video or what have you. And it just amazed, It 338 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 5: never sees to amaze me how much people pile into leverage. 339 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 2: But is there almost like a hidden Is there a 340 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 2: hidden leverage in the market given legit derivatives or crafted 341 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 2: marketing derivatives if you will, Is it like eighty seven? 342 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 2: I didn't know what Portfolio and Assurance was until a 343 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 2: Thursday evening at six pm with a cocktail in my 344 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 2: hand in October of eighty seven? Is there a leverage 345 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 2: issue out there because of all this new fangled stuff? 346 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 5: So I get asked this a lot. My short answer 347 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 5: is I don't think so. I think again, the meet 348 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 5: is made has changed. I don't think we're in a 349 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 5: February twenty eighteen volmaged situation, which you did have with 350 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 5: a lot of the inverse levered ATPs. So like your 351 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 5: your t VIX, your sbx Y that imploded lots of fun. 352 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 5: But you know what we have in the market that's 353 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,919 Speaker 5: grown a lot and notional are more your plain vanilla 354 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 5: overwriting strategies, which just has a different sense of leverage. 355 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 4: I mean velocity shares two times fixed. I mean you 356 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 4: can have a lot of fun. Yes, I mean you 357 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 4: got to stay on top of this. Amy, does your 358 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 4: world care about two o'clock today with the Federal Reserve 359 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 4: chairman and what we hear? 360 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,120 Speaker 5: I think very much so. And I think there's been 361 00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 5: this hotly contested do we get do we get a 362 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 5: crack into September? Does he admit that maybe there possibly 363 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 5: couldn't be an opening? I think that's gonna that's going 364 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 5: to be again a reasoner rent Gamma. 365 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 2: Right to see, Amy was silvervan with us with RBC 366 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:17,159 Speaker 2: Capital Markets this morning. Let me get one more in 367 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 2: here quickly. The idea here of this bull market in 368 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 2: MEGS seven. Can you play derivatives in mags seven? 369 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 5: Absolutely? And look if you are bulled up Tom in 370 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 5: Nvidia again that that collsk you that call exuberants where 371 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 5: everyone's piling to those options not seeing that yet. For 372 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:35,679 Speaker 5: August twenty seven. 373 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 2: Thirty, it was Silvervan Thank YOUBC at Capital Market. 374 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:43,360 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 375 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:46,400 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android 376 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 377 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 378 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 379 00:20:56,080 --> 00:21:01,199 Speaker 2: My first intern at Bloomberg was a high achievement and 380 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 2: got one of the great Covenant scholarships and jobs. He 381 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 2: migrated to State Department years ago. Ryan Majaris was under 382 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:13,640 Speaker 2: Ramundo at Commerce and a very extinguished career in trade 383 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 2: in law in Washington, and he joins US now. He's 384 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 2: the former Assistant General Counsel for US Trade. Is a 385 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 2: broad sense for President Biden. Ryan thrilled to have you 386 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 2: with us. This is arguably our interview of the day. 387 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,479 Speaker 2: What was it like at Georgetown when you won a 388 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 2: Harry S. Truman scholarship? That had to have been. 389 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,679 Speaker 8: Life changing, You know, it definitely set me on kind 390 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 8: of a different trajectory for sure. 391 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 7: And you'll get a kick out of this. 392 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,879 Speaker 8: But at Georgetown, my worst grade and undergrad was actually 393 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 8: international trade. So I've always wanted to go back to 394 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:49,679 Speaker 8: and talk to that professor and say, you know, look 395 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 8: what I've done since. 396 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 2: Then they the quality see. 397 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 7: Yeah. 398 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:56,919 Speaker 8: You know what's interesting is I think back on my 399 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 8: college experience at the Hilltop, which was great, but you know, 400 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 8: it was at a time when globalization was kind of 401 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 8: at its peak, and really every lecture I had in 402 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 8: college was about how globalization is a tie that lifts 403 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 8: all boats. Everybody is better off from because the value 404 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 8: added from globalization. And I sat there in those lectures thinking, 405 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 8: I feel like we're missing half the story here, and 406 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 8: I think what we've seen with this administration in the 407 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,159 Speaker 8: past decade kind of underscores that. 408 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 2: What is so important here and why I think this 409 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 2: series timely is all the smart people of whatever their politics, 410 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 2: say these are verbal agreements in not written agreements of detail. 411 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 2: Discuss how you perceive the Japanese and EU deals that 412 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:45,160 Speaker 2: the presidents as are massive, except does anything written down. 413 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 8: So this is a very different way of negotiating trade agreements. 414 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:51,719 Speaker 8: And I actually don't think you can look at these 415 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 8: framework deals in the traditional sense as trade agreements that 416 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 8: we've seen in the past, where there's multiple negotiating rounds 417 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 8: where you refine the text before it gets to the 418 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 8: principle and then it's issued. I really view these as 419 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 8: the start of negotiating rounds that we're going to see 420 00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 8: over the next weeks, months, and. 421 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 7: Maybe even years. 422 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 8: The reality is it takes a long time to get 423 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 8: at this significant kind of politically entrenched trade issues between countries, 424 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 8: and I do think at the end of the day, 425 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 8: that is what they're trying to get at. They're frustrated 426 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:24,640 Speaker 8: by years and years of jobs getting offshore and want 427 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 8: to deal with those non tariff barriers and unbalanced trade 428 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 8: through through different levels of tariffs by trying to counteract that. 429 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 7: And get folks to the negotiating table. 430 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 8: There's clearly a shock and ah aspect of this to 431 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,159 Speaker 8: threaten the use of tariffs and bring them to the table. 432 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 8: But right now I think we're seeing the result of that. 433 00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 8: There hasn't been enough time to really negotiate among the parties, 434 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,400 Speaker 8: and you're seeing these kind of like high level framework 435 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 8: deals that have investment commitments, but it's unclear at the 436 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 8: stage where they're going to go. I think we're going 437 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 8: to see more discussions. 438 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,560 Speaker 4: Ryan, Why do you think that Trump administration believes it's 439 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:02,880 Speaker 4: good trade policy to tax American businesses and tax American 440 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 4: consumers to bring back manufacturing jobs to an economy that 441 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 4: is already at full employment. 442 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,119 Speaker 8: So I think the story is a bit more complicated 443 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 8: than that. Certainly there is going to be degrees of 444 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 8: tariffs getting passed on to consumers, that's unquestionable, But they're 445 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,920 Speaker 8: trying to deal with these kind of broader concerns of 446 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 8: we have liberalized our market over the last seventy or 447 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 8: eighty years and other countries have not done that to 448 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,159 Speaker 8: the same degree. And I really do think at the 449 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,360 Speaker 8: end of the day, you have to even with all 450 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,639 Speaker 8: the kind of shifting sands in the trade policy and 451 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,400 Speaker 8: the on again off again, at the end of the day, 452 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,280 Speaker 8: they're trying to bring back manufacturing jobs and rebalance trade 453 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 8: and they think the tariffs are the best way to 454 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,080 Speaker 8: do that. That they create leverage and they're going to 455 00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:45,160 Speaker 8: get folks to the table, and there's no question that's 456 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:49,359 Speaker 8: done that. I think the ultimate question will be what 457 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 8: are the impacts of this. What are the kind of is. 458 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:54,600 Speaker 2: The President listening to our conversation. 459 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 4: I'm sure he is sure ran aren't the greatest beneficiaries 460 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 4: of globalization the American consumer. 461 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 7: But undoubtedly we've been afit. 462 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,360 Speaker 4: Why are we changing policies? 463 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 7: So there's two sides to the story. 464 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,440 Speaker 8: We've benefited from globalization, but there's no question that admitting 465 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 8: China to the WTO and kind of the broader scope 466 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,679 Speaker 8: approach that we took a globalization as that impacts on 467 00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 8: the country, and so I think you're seeing kind of 468 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 8: a response to that. 469 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,920 Speaker 2: Ryan, the President tweets, now, the August first deadline is 470 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 2: the August first deadline. It stands strong and will not 471 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 2: be extended. A big day for America, Ryan, is August first, 472 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,400 Speaker 2: a big day for all Americans. 473 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 8: I honestly think they're going to issue a lot of 474 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 8: tariffs on August first. 475 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 7: I don't think we're going to see many extensions. 476 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 8: I think we may see them on China, but you know, 477 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 8: I think they feel empowered to. You know, despite the 478 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 8: high level of tariffs that we're currently seeing, we have 479 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 8: an average teriff rate of nearly twenty percent. The stock 480 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 8: market's doing great, consumer prices have started to uptick, but 481 00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 8: aren't asked concerning as speared you know, inflation as an 482 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 8: ticked up. So until those things start to become headwinds, 483 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,439 Speaker 8: significant headwinds, I think they're going to fill embolden to 484 00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 8: try this out and test it. 485 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 2: And John Tucker, you had Hershey reporting and you stated 486 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 2: the tariffs came in much higher for Hershey's Chocolate's unexpected. 487 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 7: I think it was like one hundred and eighty million dollars. 488 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 7: Is what the tab's going to be from the earlier 489 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 7: projection in May? I think is this where we're heading? 490 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 3: Ryan? 491 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,199 Speaker 2: I mean, is a final question? Is this where the 492 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 2: path we're heading? Do is substantially a substantial intake on 493 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:30,640 Speaker 2: tariffs and expense? 494 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 7: I think so. 495 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 8: I think we're going to see that tariff rights stay 496 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 8: in the fifteen to twenty percent rage going forward unless 497 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 8: we start to see these headwinds take hold. 498 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 2: This has been wonderful. Ryan, don't be a stranger. I 499 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,920 Speaker 2: love to have you and was king and spauling Ryan 500 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:53,399 Speaker 2: and Jeris with this the former Assistant General Counsel of Trade. 501 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 502 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,000 Speaker 1: starting at seven am East on Applecarplay and Android Auto 503 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 504 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,880 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. 505 00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 2: Mark Hart with is now BNP Pariba with a really 506 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 2: really smart folk talking about the optimist trifecta that could 507 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 2: be out there. But you bring up a word which 508 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 2: I'm going to associate, you know, ages ago with the 509 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:25,640 Speaker 2: likes of Robert Mandel and Jacob Frinkel, which is trilemma. 510 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,399 Speaker 2: And in the foreign exchange in international space, a trilemma 511 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 2: indicates that within a system, there's a constraint. On this 512 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 2: crazy Wednesday with the newsflow, we have, what is the 513 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 2: constraint and the system that we have is it monetary policy? 514 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 2: Is it this trade fiesco we're in. What's the constraint 515 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 2: in our trilemma? 516 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 6: Well, I guess Tom there number and good morning, thanks 517 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,920 Speaker 6: for having me. You know, I think the constraint has 518 00:27:54,000 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 6: been for most of the year has been overarching uncertainty unknown, 519 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,639 Speaker 6: and that's been holding back corporate America, in particular away 520 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 6: from the mag seven, it's been holding back animal spirits. 521 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:07,560 Speaker 7: And with the. 522 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,679 Speaker 6: Passage of the Big Beautiful Bill, with the resilience of 523 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 6: the economy and with you know, getting deals, you know, 524 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 6: preliminary deals done with with key partners like the UK, 525 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 6: Japan and the EU. Some of that uncertainty is fading, 526 00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 6: and we're seeing animal spirits pick up. Tom, We're seeing 527 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:25,880 Speaker 6: M and A look at the Union Pacific deal, look 528 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 6: at some other M and A that's that's in the works. 529 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 6: And the comments we heard from big M and A 530 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,439 Speaker 6: banks recently. So the big constraint has been uncertainty, and 531 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,120 Speaker 6: I think that constraint is starting to wan. 532 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:39,960 Speaker 4: So what do we do here? I mean, I think 533 00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,040 Speaker 4: that a lot of folks are saying, boy, the stocks 534 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 4: look expensive twenty two ish times, pe credit spreads are tight. Boy, 535 00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 4: gold's had a rip. You know, where do you find? 536 00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:53,360 Speaker 4: Are you looking for value or you're just looking for 537 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 4: quality here and just saying I can hold my nose 538 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 4: at values. 539 00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 6: You know, it's a little bit of both. And mean 540 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 6: sometimes we're just looking for generic carry or yield. You know, 541 00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 6: it's not because that uncertainty can come back with just 542 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,160 Speaker 6: a tweet or two, or with a shock, a tsunami. 543 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 6: Who knows, there's there's a lot of outliers that can 544 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:18,080 Speaker 6: destabilize these days. But but Yes, quality with growth that 545 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 6: that is levered to a firm economy in the US 546 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 6: and slightly diminishing uncertainty is what we're looking for talking about. 547 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,040 Speaker 2: I mean with the unknown of the European deal, the 548 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,520 Speaker 2: unknown of the Japanese deal, maybe the unknown of the legislation. 549 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 2: Are al we living here on this huge day is 550 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 2: a lot of stimulus in a lot of tone of deregulation. 551 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 6: Tom, I think that's a. 552 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 2: Great way to put it, is that some of where 553 00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:47,200 Speaker 2: we are, Yeah. 554 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,040 Speaker 6: The Big Beautiful Bill is a lot of stimulus, tax 555 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 6: cuts and targeted spending and. 556 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 2: Overlaid on a union Pacific deregulation just a. 557 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 6: Yes p train and in the banking sector deregulation. There 558 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:02,240 Speaker 6: changes at the FED and other recite bodies. But importantly 559 00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 6: there's also the AI evolution, and that's we're going to 560 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 6: hear a lot of that today, like yourself. And that's 561 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 6: also a catalyst not just for the mag seven but 562 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,880 Speaker 6: for your firm, for my firm. It's being deployed more 563 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,800 Speaker 6: broadly and that is fueling growth. That's the under the 564 00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 6: surface mark. 565 00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,720 Speaker 4: So what are we doing here at US versus rest 566 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 4: of the world. There was a trade earlier this year 567 00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 4: where a lot of folks were taking money out of 568 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,440 Speaker 4: the US, maybe even the US dollar, the US stock 569 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:32,400 Speaker 4: market and employment the rest of the world. Was that 570 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 4: kind of a short term trade or is there something 571 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:35,640 Speaker 4: else going on out there? 572 00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:36,120 Speaker 6: What do you see? 573 00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:36,280 Speaker 9: Well? 574 00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 6: I think that was a tactical rebalance to reflect both 575 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 6: the acute uncertainty in April and as well as the 576 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:50,400 Speaker 6: divergent prospects or hopes for more stimulus, more growth in Japan, 577 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 6: in Europe and other parts of the world. Now we've 578 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 6: seen a more of an equilibrium and the de dollarization, 579 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,120 Speaker 6: as people call it, I think as much more or 580 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 6: of a slow burn. It's not it is not a 581 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 6: significant theme that we're hearing from clients in the near term, 582 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 6: but when you talk about twenty six twenty seven, I 583 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 6: think it will continue to be a force, particularly with 584 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,760 Speaker 6: the steepness of the curve and the prospects for some 585 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:15,479 Speaker 6: cuts next year. 586 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:20,440 Speaker 2: BNP perrybat has a just fabulous specific rim heritage. I 587 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 2: was honored to be part of that years ago, and 588 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,800 Speaker 2: I if I look at your study of EM, the 589 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 2: fact is dollar is really doing well against EM. There's 590 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 2: a lot I looked at Argentine peso today, it's grim. 591 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 2: I mean, is this the main store. The surprise for 592 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 2: the second half is dollar resilience. 593 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,520 Speaker 6: You know, I think that's that is a story, Tom. 594 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,480 Speaker 6: I don't know that that's the story. I think that 595 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 6: the you know, we had a major you know, ten 596 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 6: plus percent move in the dollar versus the basket, and 597 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 6: that that's an outlier. You don't see that every year. 598 00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 6: So I think we're going to settle into more of 599 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 6: a groove around that, and you know, other things will 600 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 6: will influence the major pairs, including the EM pairs, but 601 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 6: we're seeing a lot of money go into EM assets 602 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,800 Speaker 6: as you can imagine as the hunt for the hunter 603 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:15,280 Speaker 6: return and the hunt for yield and frankly an alternative 604 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:15,840 Speaker 6: to the dollar. 605 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,600 Speaker 2: Mark, thank you so much for starting as strong today. 606 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:21,240 Speaker 2: Mark Hawarden Studio with this. He is with BNP Burry Bob, 607 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,840 Speaker 2: his senior Multi Asset call specialist. 608 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 609 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 610 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 611 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 612 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty Arie World with us. 613 00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 2: Right now, I had a technical analysis Oppenheimer Ari. In 614 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 2: the fundamental space, John stolf is making headlines with an 615 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 2: optimism on a bullmarket. Is this bullmarket charterable? Does this 616 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,800 Speaker 2: bullmarket display a trend? 617 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 9: Sure does only it's a fresh breakout above its February 618 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 9: high points. I think the key message that we've been 619 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 9: conveying to clients here is that the rally is surely overbought, 620 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,960 Speaker 9: but that doesn't mean that the bullmarket is over that. Historically, 621 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,680 Speaker 9: when you get these very swift recoveries from a fifty 622 00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 9: two week low to a fifty two week high actually 623 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,640 Speaker 9: been followed by above average forward returns for the S 624 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,760 Speaker 9: and P. So I think this is consistent with an 625 00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,880 Speaker 9: intact bull market. We do want to invest for a 626 00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:33,320 Speaker 9: third year bullmarket. However, with that said, so Ari. 627 00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,640 Speaker 4: I'm just looking at the relative strength index for the 628 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,640 Speaker 4: S and P five hundred. It's now it's seventy one 629 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:42,320 Speaker 4: point eight, typically suggesting an over bought here. How do 630 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 4: you think about that short term. 631 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 9: It is, Well, that's a difficult timing indicator. I was 632 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:50,960 Speaker 9: looking at that. I heard you lead in with the 633 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:54,239 Speaker 9: RSI and I quickly checked it out myself. It hit 634 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:58,920 Speaker 9: seventy actually coming into July. That was right ahead of 635 00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 9: a three and a half percent rally in the S 636 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,080 Speaker 9: and P five hundred, So that relatives are the indicator. 637 00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,760 Speaker 9: That's a measurement of the speed of price. It's indicating 638 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 9: that price is still accelerating. That's actually a good thing. 639 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:13,200 Speaker 9: We call that confirmation in the technical analysis space. Typically 640 00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 9: you want to see those divergences and signs of deceleration 641 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,000 Speaker 9: before getting more concerned. 642 00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:22,120 Speaker 2: How do you use volume? My school thought, ari is 643 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:25,319 Speaker 2: I really try to ignore volume as noise. I would 644 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,800 Speaker 2: suggest you go another way. How do you treat volume 645 00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:30,880 Speaker 2: in this odd summer of a bull market. 646 00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 4: It's a great question. 647 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 9: It's really become secondary confirmation for us tom as we 648 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:42,279 Speaker 9: think about the market since the Great Financial Crisis, we've 649 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 9: had these lightly traded rallies followed by heavy volume selling, 650 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 9: and the textbooks tell you that that's what you don't 651 00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,840 Speaker 9: want to see. But it's been a terrific move to 652 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:57,360 Speaker 9: the upside since then, So it's secondary confirmation for us 653 00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 9: looking at individual stock ideas, I'd like to see volume 654 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,800 Speaker 9: with the breakouts, but it's not necessarily necessary. 655 00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:04,560 Speaker 2: That's right where I wanted to go. I mean within 656 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:09,239 Speaker 2: Stolfus and walled. Oppenheimer's got some real experience. And the 657 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,600 Speaker 2: basic idea here is we haven't seen this before. Is 658 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:14,800 Speaker 2: it because of the index funds? Is it because of 659 00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,760 Speaker 2: the ETFs? Is it because Michael Barr's in the triple 660 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:21,719 Speaker 2: leverage SBX fund? Is it a new market where technical 661 00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,719 Speaker 2: analysis doesn't work? Oh? 662 00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:29,439 Speaker 9: No, I think technical analysis is probably more important than ever, 663 00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:35,120 Speaker 9: just given the acceleration in index scene and move towards ETFs. 664 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,279 Speaker 9: Now investors are saying, do I want to buy the 665 00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,120 Speaker 9: XLK or XLF. It's not do I want to buy 666 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,040 Speaker 9: JP Morgan or Bank of America. They're all moving the same, 667 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:46,239 Speaker 9: and you're seeing the correlations rise and the importance of 668 00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,520 Speaker 9: macro investing and getting me into the right ballpark. And 669 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:51,719 Speaker 9: I think technical analysis is a big part of that. 670 00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,680 Speaker 4: Talk to us about breath in this market here, ari 671 00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,799 Speaker 4: or lack thereof. It just seems like so much of 672 00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,160 Speaker 4: the S and P five hundred fo romans is anchored 673 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:04,320 Speaker 4: in a handful of stocks here. Historically, how do you 674 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:04,680 Speaker 4: view that? 675 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,799 Speaker 9: Well, now we're getting into some of our concerns here. 676 00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:13,160 Speaker 9: I think Anyone trying to say that breadth is healthy 677 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,360 Speaker 9: here is kidding themselves. This is probably our biggest concerns 678 00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,799 Speaker 9: that this has been a more narrow move to the 679 00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:22,000 Speaker 9: upside kind of thinking in terms of stocks trading above 680 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,759 Speaker 9: their two hundreday average on the Russell three thousand, got 681 00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:28,080 Speaker 9: his high as fifty nine percent, more recently was as 682 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:32,120 Speaker 9: high as seventy percent throughout twenty twenty four. Net new 683 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:36,000 Speaker 9: highs on the NYC three hundred and seventy in twenty 684 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:39,160 Speaker 9: twenty four, only about one hundred and forty this time around. 685 00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,600 Speaker 9: So this is a yellow light, it's a warning, it's 686 00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:44,719 Speaker 9: what you don't want to see. I would say it 687 00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:47,680 Speaker 9: doesn't become a red light until really trading starts to 688 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 9: deteriorate here, and I would argue that there's been these 689 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:54,760 Speaker 9: offsetting positives. The leadership of the market been very pro cyclical. 690 00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,759 Speaker 9: We've seen high data cyclicals outperforming low volatility defensive. So 691 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,920 Speaker 9: it is a mosaic for the bread piece of the 692 00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,000 Speaker 9: puzzle being the more concerned here than us. 693 00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:08,839 Speaker 2: Ariwald, thank you so much. With Oppenheimer on technical analysis. 694 00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:11,440 Speaker 1: On the charts in the moment, this is the Bloomberg 695 00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:16,319 Speaker 1: surveillance podcast available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 696 00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:20,239 Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten 697 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:24,920 Speaker 1: am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, 698 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:28,359 Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 699 00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,000 Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg 700 00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:32,520 Speaker 1: terminal