WEBVTT - Investing in the Era of Climate Change

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. You're listening and

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<v Speaker 1>watching Bloomberg Business Week. We're getting ready to wrap up

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<v Speaker 1>our show, but we've got a great last guest that

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<v Speaker 1>we wanted to get to and just to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>set it up. Earlier this year, McKenzie pegged the price

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<v Speaker 1>tag of a livable climate at nine point two trillion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars a year. So that's the level of investment needed

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<v Speaker 1>to reach the international climate goals of net zero emissions

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<v Speaker 1>by twenty fifty. And our next guest him as a

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<v Speaker 1>guide to the risks and opportunities for investors as a

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<v Speaker 1>worldfaces climate change. Very pleased to have with us this afternoon.

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<v Speaker 1>Bruce Usher. He's professor of Professional Practice at Columbia Business School.

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<v Speaker 1>He's also the author of his book Investing in the

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<v Speaker 1>Era of Climate Change. And I should note full disclosure

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<v Speaker 1>he was my professor when I took a course from

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<v Speaker 1>him all the way back in what Maybe Business Right. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>this was a cool class investing for social ventures. We

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<v Speaker 1>got to like essentially serve as consultants for these startups

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<v Speaker 1>and decide whether or not they would be awarded money

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<v Speaker 1>pressor Usher. Great to have you with us this afternoon.

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<v Speaker 1>How are you? Thank you for having on the show

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<v Speaker 1>and nice chat again. Yeah, it's good. It's good to

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<v Speaker 1>have you with us. Hey, help us understand in a

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<v Speaker 1>time where we're seeing global upheaval, the worst energy crisis

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<v Speaker 1>that we've actually seen in decades, uh, and investors are

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<v Speaker 1>fighting for returns anywhere. How should they be thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>investing when it comes to climate change. Well, there's no

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<v Speaker 1>shortage of volatility in the markets these days, but they

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<v Speaker 1>should think about climate change from a longer term perspective.

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<v Speaker 1>If they're looking for stable trends, it's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>here with us for years, if not decades, and affecting

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<v Speaker 1>businesses for decades to come, and therefore affecting investors investor

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<v Speaker 1>returns for years to come. Climate change is the macro

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<v Speaker 1>trend of the next several decades. There's just no question

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<v Speaker 1>about that. So okay, and I do feel like it's

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<v Speaker 1>going through a reckoning. Tim and I talked about E S. G. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>We've seen so much money, Professor Usher go into this space,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're getting to a point where people really want

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<v Speaker 1>to understand what they're investing in, and that that money

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately makes a difference when it comes to E s

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<v Speaker 1>G metrics, How do we make sure that investments that

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<v Speaker 1>we make really are making a difference and are good

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<v Speaker 1>for the climate. Well, there's plenty of discourse or any

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<v Speaker 1>s G these days, no question about that. And the

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<v Speaker 1>challenge the B s G is the concept is very simple, right.

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<v Speaker 1>It's simply saying that when you make an investment, you

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<v Speaker 1>would normally look at financial metrics, and manage metrics and

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<v Speaker 1>competition all these other metrics. In addition, add to that

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<v Speaker 1>analysis the environmental or social factors that are material to

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<v Speaker 1>the company you're considering. If you're buying into real estate

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<v Speaker 1>on the coast, you might want to think about floods

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<v Speaker 1>and storms in the life, right. So that's the s

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<v Speaker 1>G analysis. It's very important for investment perspective. It makes

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<v Speaker 1>makes for better investment decisions. It doesn't have a tremendous

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<v Speaker 1>impact though, on addressing climate change, because what you're really

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<v Speaker 1>doing is investing in companies that are doing better for

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<v Speaker 1>managing climate risk. But those decisions don't necessarily reduce emissions

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<v Speaker 1>as gases. So that's what you're focused on. It I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's prettymportant to be focused on it. There's really

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<v Speaker 1>two strategies to consider. One is a thematic act investing strategy.

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<v Speaker 1>Pick a theme or sector that contributes to addressing climate ching,

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<v Speaker 1>say renew energy, solid wind, or electric vehicles, and put

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<v Speaker 1>some investments into that sector in a smart way to

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<v Speaker 1>maximize risks to adjusted returns and also contribute to reducing

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<v Speaker 1>emissions of greenhouse gasses. The other strategy that's unique to

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<v Speaker 1>really high net worth altra high net worth individuals is

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<v Speaker 1>take what's called impact first strategy. So here we're really

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<v Speaker 1>focused on climate change and invests with that lens in mind.

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<v Speaker 1>Now that means big, very long term investments and and

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps some additional risk, but some investors are willing to

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<v Speaker 1>go as well. What I find a little puzzling in

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<v Speaker 1>this day and age, in you know, October, is the

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<v Speaker 1>market has rewarded this year companies that are the antithesis

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<v Speaker 1>of these climate friendly companies. You could argue, right um

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<v Speaker 1>oil and gas companies. And when you look at the

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<v Speaker 1>best forming stock in the SMP five D this year,

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<v Speaker 1>Occidental patrolling about on number for the first, third, fourth, fifth, six, seventh, eighth, ninth,

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<v Speaker 1>and tenth companies that are the only that they are

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<v Speaker 1>the best performing in the SP five hundred. They are

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<v Speaker 1>all oil gas natural resources companies. So what's an investor

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<v Speaker 1>to do in this environment so to days? But with

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<v Speaker 1>the oil and gas, First of all, they were that

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<v Speaker 1>was from very low price points a year ago, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So the multiples on those companies are still very well. Secondly,

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<v Speaker 1>many of those oil and gas companies are aware of

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<v Speaker 1>climate change and aware that their business models and how

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to change them. So Ocidental Petroleum as an example,

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<v Speaker 1>has invested heavily and direct their capture and some other

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<v Speaker 1>technologies to ideally reduce their emissions over time. So they're

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<v Speaker 1>they're also thinking long term. I'm not saying where their

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<v Speaker 1>business model is the right one. Actually, we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>much clarity on on the oil and gas UH strategies

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<v Speaker 1>around climate change yet, but it's not as if those

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<v Speaker 1>companies are ignoring the issual to at least the best

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<v Speaker 1>majority of the n take action on that. That being said,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I said a few minutes ago, climate change

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<v Speaker 1>is a long term trend and lower seeing the markets

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<v Speaker 1>right now is short term volatilly right, oil gas prices

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<v Speaker 1>are up dramatically in the past year, and those stocks

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<v Speaker 1>are into well in the short term. But is there

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<v Speaker 1>going to be you know, it's interesting on a day

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<v Speaker 1>when we heard from Cathy Wood of our convest to

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<v Speaker 1>obviously stresses disruption innovation. You know, is there going to

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<v Speaker 1>be this uncomfortable pivot? Forgive me for using the p

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<v Speaker 1>word you have to drink, but is there going to

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<v Speaker 1>be an uncomfortable pivot at least in the public markets

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<v Speaker 1>as we do shift away from carbon based fuels, as

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<v Speaker 1>we move to alternative energy more e vs, because we

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<v Speaker 1>really are turning our backs on companies that have been

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<v Speaker 1>so much a part of our public markets in some ways,

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<v Speaker 1>and there will be new leaders in the market. So

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<v Speaker 1>will there be some dislocations, some discomfort as that happens. Absolutely. Look,

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<v Speaker 1>climate change is two words, right, the second words change,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's going to be environmental change, but there's also

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a lot of change in the in

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<v Speaker 1>in business as decarbonation takes place through the global economy.

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<v Speaker 1>There are going to be companies that are winners and

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<v Speaker 1>companies that are losers. There's just no question about that.

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<v Speaker 1>From an investment perspective, the key question, of course is

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<v Speaker 1>who's going to win is going to lose. And here

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<v Speaker 1>it gets a challenging because in some sectors, the disruptive

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<v Speaker 1>companies new technologies really have an advantage. I mean, just

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<v Speaker 1>look at the auto automotive sector and Tesla. It's completely

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<v Speaker 1>disrupted it and we so it happened to value us

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<v Speaker 1>both in Tesla and then competitors. Some other sectors are

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<v Speaker 1>the incumbents have big advantages. And sectors where there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of regulation or big balancies are required, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>utility sector. You know there are companies have tried to

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<v Speaker 1>disrupt utilies for the number of years. Now next Era

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<v Speaker 1>took a look what's going on, starting investing heavily, and

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<v Speaker 1>Renewables is now the largest owner of renewable energy astics

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<v Speaker 1>in the country and more importantly, is the most valuable

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<v Speaker 1>utility in the country today and when most valuable energy

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<v Speaker 1>comverst utility. So, you know, picking those winners and losers.

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<v Speaker 1>As this transition happened us the word pivot, I would

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<v Speaker 1>use the word transition. But this this change that's coming,

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<v Speaker 1>it's critical. How much do you watch It's funny when

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<v Speaker 1>Tim and I were at Milkin, was it in the spring?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, we spent so many of our conversations talking

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<v Speaker 1>about the private markets versus the public markets. How much

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<v Speaker 1>do you watch what's going on, especially when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to disruption, innovation, that pivot that's happening as we think

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<v Speaker 1>about the climate. How much of what we really should

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<v Speaker 1>be keeping an eye on is where those investments are

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<v Speaker 1>going on in the private markets to give us an

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<v Speaker 1>idea of who will be ultimately the leaders in the

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<v Speaker 1>public markets in the years to come. Absolutely, the private

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<v Speaker 1>markets where a lot of the innovation occurs, as where

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<v Speaker 1>venture capital flows. That's where a lot of private capitalists

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<v Speaker 1>flowing from from mindor worth individuals. We should look at

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<v Speaker 1>what's going look at what Bill Gates and break your

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<v Speaker 1>energy ventures are investing, and look at what the number

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<v Speaker 1>of the DC fonds are putting into. Figure out called

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<v Speaker 1>climate tech and let's see, you know which which of

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<v Speaker 1>those become the winners in the very sectors. Sectors that

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<v Speaker 1>would focus on green hydrogen. Whole new sector could absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>revolutionize a lot of industries today direct or capture much risk,

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<v Speaker 1>you're much harder, but could revolutionize the way we address

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<v Speaker 1>climate change. And then there a whole lot of other

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<v Speaker 1>technologies around energy storage and transportation all early stage, not

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<v Speaker 1>competitive commercially yet with the incoment companies, but a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of opportunity and promises. So don't make fun of I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know riv and or like whoever is out there. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>we love you. No, I'm just saying no, no of

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<v Speaker 1>you at all. But I mean there's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>stumbles right as we make this change. Absolutely. Yeah. Look

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<v Speaker 1>the parallel here is you know, I I teach a

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<v Speaker 1>business school, right, and we if we go back thirty

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<v Speaker 1>years when I graduating business school, the big thing that

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<v Speaker 1>came and we didn't see it coming really was technology.

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<v Speaker 1>Technology changed all businesses, and we looked at telligent. Even

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<v Speaker 1>when we saw technology coming, it was often hard to

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<v Speaker 1>know which companies we're gonna win. You know, Netscape was

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest internet company there for a while and doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>exist anymore. Google paying along and it's still dominant. Those

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<v Speaker 1>changes in the world of technology, and specifically digital technologies

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<v Speaker 1>have revolutionized business in so many ways and results in

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of a lot of change. We look forward

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<v Speaker 1>thirty years, that's climate change. Climate change is going to

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<v Speaker 1>have a similar impact on businesses, and it's it's tough

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<v Speaker 1>to predict which specific companies are going to come out

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<v Speaker 1>on top, Bruce, Where is the drive going to come from?

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<v Speaker 1>When you think about investors, when you think about just

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<v Speaker 1>business risk, where you think about the government. Is this

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<v Speaker 1>something that so that these companies are going to do

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<v Speaker 1>on their own or does the government need to step

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<v Speaker 1>in and create regulations that guide them. Yes, So this

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<v Speaker 1>is an interesting moment and the reason why I wrote

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<v Speaker 1>the book. Now, I could have been working in second

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<v Speaker 1>twenty years. I could have written it some years ago

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<v Speaker 1>or waited a little longer. We're at a various moment

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<v Speaker 1>in time here because there's multiple drivers going at once. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>one driver is a Pisco risk. The climate change are

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<v Speaker 1>manifesting themselves increasingly, we're seeing climate change play out physically

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<v Speaker 1>instead that affects people. Consumers are starting to man more

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<v Speaker 1>sustainable products. Employees they want to work for companies they

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<v Speaker 1>believe are sustainable. These are all real trends and there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of economic researchers show that these actually effective businesses.

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<v Speaker 1>That you've got government government stepping up more than ever.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's it's not consistent particularly here with parties change,

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<v Speaker 1>but the inflation reduction acts by far the largest government

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<v Speaker 1>support ever in this area, and that's as big implications.

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<v Speaker 1>And then the greatest change of all is around the innovation.

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<v Speaker 1>So we have products like solar and winds and electric

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<v Speaker 1>vehicles that are revolutionary and revolutionizing industries and also really

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<v Speaker 1>starting to bend the curve on emissions. Uh. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>here in the US, most people don't realize we actually

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<v Speaker 1>peaked in our greenhouse gas emissions back in two thousand seven.

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<v Speaker 1>We actually are in a det work not nearly quickly enough.

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<v Speaker 1>We have to be we have to accelerate this, this

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<v Speaker 1>this transition. But this innovation and technologies is really making

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<v Speaker 1>a big difference. So we've had a minute or so

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<v Speaker 1>left here, and there's a line in your story with

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<v Speaker 1>a graphicum or a picture. Investors should climate proof their

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<v Speaker 1>investments by mid century, in line with the recommendations of

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<v Speaker 1>climate scientists. So I'm thinking about our investors, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>people who are listening to this show, listening to you speak,

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<v Speaker 1>listening to this interview. What's the takeaway at this point

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<v Speaker 1>when they think about their investments and maybe their their strategy,

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<v Speaker 1>their their time frame and the like. Yeah, so the

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<v Speaker 1>the initial reactions that maybe, well, mid century is an

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<v Speaker 1>awfully long time. Now it's almost three decades and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be I'm gonna be pretty old. Hope, hope, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>still here talking to me then. But investments are priced

0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:46.480
<v Speaker 1>their value on future cash flows and future expectations on

0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.880
<v Speaker 1>the value in those assets most companies, and it's becoming

0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:53.719
<v Speaker 1>increasing at parent that the world is going to decarbonize

0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:55.839
<v Speaker 1>by the way, whether or not governments make it happen,

0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:58.200
<v Speaker 1>is going to happen these climate change is basic physics.

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<v Speaker 1>When you do to its going to force us to

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<v Speaker 1>do this. So you're looking at your your investments, think

0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:06.360
<v Speaker 1>about how they're going to be affected not thirty years

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<v Speaker 1>from now, and how they're going to get affected in the

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<v Speaker 1>the last a couple of years as these changes really

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<v Speaker 1>start to manifest themselves, and then reposition around that. Fascinating

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<v Speaker 1>and I think it's just so relevant to so much

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<v Speaker 1>going on, especially as we continue to see the impact

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<v Speaker 1>of climate change and then think about how it plays

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<v Speaker 1>certainly into investing strategy. Bruce A sure, thank you so much.

0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:27.880
<v Speaker 1>Hopefully we can catch up with you soon again in

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<v Speaker 1>the future, professor of professional Practice at Clubby Business School.

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<v Speaker 1>Check out his new book, Investing in the Era of

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<v Speaker 1>Climate Change. Uh, it is just at