WEBVTT - Beginnings

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<v Speaker 1>School of Humans. What would your life be like right

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<v Speaker 1>now if coronavirus hadn't emerged in twenty nineteen, What would

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<v Speaker 1>the world be like? I'm Sean Revieve. I'm a full

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<v Speaker 1>time freelance journalist. I travel around the country and world

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<v Speaker 1>to tell stories. I've reported on HIV, neuro signs, AI,

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<v Speaker 1>facial recognition, and a host of weirder topics. In twenty twenty,

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<v Speaker 1>I did none of that. Instead, I spent months afraid

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<v Speaker 1>of going to the grocery store, afraid of touching door

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<v Speaker 1>knobs and hugging my best friends. I worried about keeping

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<v Speaker 1>my wife and two year old sons safe. I worked

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<v Speaker 1>half time or no time. I got the news that

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<v Speaker 1>my aunt died alone in a hospital. I spent a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of time on a couch depressed. That's just me.

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<v Speaker 1>You've got your own list. Now. Multiply that by seven

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<v Speaker 1>point eight billion. Lives ground to a halt after a

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<v Speaker 1>novel coronavirus showed up in Wuhan. Nearly two hundred million

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<v Speaker 1>people have been infected with coronavirus since December twenty nineteen.

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<v Speaker 1>More than four million have died. So many lives disrupted

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<v Speaker 1>or damn near ruined we want our old lives back,

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<v Speaker 1>if that's even possible. While a truly universal pandemic, one

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<v Speaker 1>that affects everyone everywhere, may be unprecedented. In our lifetimes,

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<v Speaker 1>humans and viruses have evolved side by side. Our history

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<v Speaker 1>has been shaped by plagues, pandemics, viruses and diseases and

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<v Speaker 1>the fight against them. Today, they are in combat more

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<v Speaker 1>than ever, and vaccines have moved from the background to

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<v Speaker 1>the foreground of our daily lives. So as a journalist

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<v Speaker 1>and generally curious person, I want to know what went

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<v Speaker 1>into them. In this podcast series, we're going to take

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<v Speaker 1>you deep into the science and the people behind the

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus vaccines. We'll travel back in time to me the

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<v Speaker 1>first innoculators, follow a path from legendary healers in China

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<v Speaker 1>to obscure country doctors in the UK, from an enslaved

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<v Speaker 1>African in Boston to the man who invented dozens of vaccines,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll draw a direct line between them and the

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<v Speaker 1>shots we're getting today. In this episode about Beginnings, we'll

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<v Speaker 1>talk to a virologists who played a key role in

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<v Speaker 1>releasing the genetic sequence of coronavirus. We'll also hear from

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<v Speaker 1>an evolutionary biologist who explores the origins of all coronaviruses

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<v Speaker 1>from My Heart Radio and School of Humans. I'm Sean

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<v Speaker 1>Revived and this is long shot the two hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>fifty year journey to the COVID nineteen vaccines. Ever since

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus became the biggest story in the world, vaccines have

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<v Speaker 1>been our greatest hope to stop it. The coronavirus vaccines

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<v Speaker 1>were produced in record time, but they're not slap dash

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<v Speaker 1>overnight inventions. There are a culmination of centuries of research

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<v Speaker 1>and advances and some unbelievable experimentation that began way back

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<v Speaker 1>when with smallpox inoculation, which marks the beginning of one

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<v Speaker 1>of humankind's greatest achievements, the ability to protect from disease.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a practice so old that nobody knows who first

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<v Speaker 1>attempted it or exactly where it originated. To even begin

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<v Speaker 1>to figure that out, you have to probe nameless. Healers,

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<v Speaker 1>myths and legends. Here's writer and actor Leoe I v

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<v Speaker 1>Chen to tell us one of them. To get to

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<v Speaker 1>the top of the highest of the four sacred the

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<v Speaker 1>Buddhist the mountains in China, you must climb sixty thousand

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<v Speaker 1>steps over piles of snow in winter, past the water

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<v Speaker 1>falls and the large greenery in summer. It will take

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<v Speaker 1>you two days to get to the top. Mont er May,

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<v Speaker 1>or er May Shan, was created two hundred and sixty

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<v Speaker 1>million years ago by a volcanic event so explosive that

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<v Speaker 1>it caused the massive extinctions across the planet. The mountain

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<v Speaker 1>is ten thousand feet top. It juts into the heavens

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<v Speaker 1>above the clouds, like a defined place it is. The

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<v Speaker 1>mountain is one of the holiest sites in Buddhism. There

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<v Speaker 1>are more than thirty buddha is the temples on mont

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<v Speaker 1>er May, including the first one built in China. Like

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<v Speaker 1>all holy places, there is a legend about mont er May.

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<v Speaker 1>A thousand and years ago, the son of a local

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<v Speaker 1>governor got very sick from small pox, which by land

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<v Speaker 1>had plagued China for at least a thousand years. The

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<v Speaker 1>governor offered the piles of gold to anyone who could

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<v Speaker 1>help his son. Three Daoists traveled from mont er May

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<v Speaker 1>and offered their services. By washing the small pox, the

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<v Speaker 1>Dooists said, you could grant protection from the disease. The

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<v Speaker 1>governor asked the Daoists to teach him this practice. The

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<v Speaker 1>Daoists agreed, and before they returned to the mountain, they

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<v Speaker 1>placed a book containing the secret of inoculation underneath a

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<v Speaker 1>medal incense thorible. Upon opening the book, the governor learned

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<v Speaker 1>at least tech chniko inoculation had long ago been invented

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<v Speaker 1>by a female Daoist. As a reward for her pioneering discovery,

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<v Speaker 1>she was turned into a goddess. So this myth, this

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<v Speaker 1>one on Mount a Mae. It was written in the

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<v Speaker 1>seventeenth century by a man named Fusheng Lin, and fusheng

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<v Speaker 1>Lin has his own interesting connection to innoculation. Louise, going

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<v Speaker 1>to tell us that story, said about seven hundred years later,

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<v Speaker 1>during the reign of teen Emperors sunt there were at

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<v Speaker 1>least nine outbreaks of small parks in Beijing, the city

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<v Speaker 1>where he lived. Each time there was an outbreak, the

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<v Speaker 1>emperor left his home to go to a bid Saw,

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<v Speaker 1>a place to quarantine from small parks, including one Bidsa

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<v Speaker 1>that was on a literal island. This way, the parks

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<v Speaker 1>could not reach across and infect him. Despite these precautions,

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<v Speaker 1>the emperor caught a small pox as he lay dying,

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<v Speaker 1>the emperor had to decide on a successor among his

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<v Speaker 1>six young sons. He chose the second son at a

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<v Speaker 1>young age. He'd already survived the small pox. With protection

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<v Speaker 1>from the disease, the boy was more likely to have

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<v Speaker 1>a long rule be a stabilizing force for the empire,

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<v Speaker 1>and he was This Song became the County Emperor, the

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<v Speaker 1>longest the ruling emperor in China's history. Low the County

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<v Speaker 1>Emperor survived the small parks, he did not escape to

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<v Speaker 1>trauma every time there was an outbreak of small parks.

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<v Speaker 1>He was haunted both by his foulest death and by

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<v Speaker 1>the isolation, and so when he grew into an adult,

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<v Speaker 1>the Councy Emperor searched far and wide for the umpire's

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<v Speaker 1>best inoculators. Around the sixteen eighty two inoculators were chosen

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<v Speaker 1>to protect the emperor's children. One of them was a

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<v Speaker 1>full Hunling, the author of the story about Monteur May.

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<v Speaker 1>Those early Chinese inoculators used several different methods to protect

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<v Speaker 1>people from small pox. One involved blowing the scab of

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<v Speaker 1>a small pox sufferer into the nose of a patient

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<v Speaker 1>using a bamboo shoot. Another method had the patient wearing

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<v Speaker 1>the clothing of an affected person for two or three days.

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<v Speaker 1>Yet another had a child lay underneath the quilt with

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<v Speaker 1>a sick patient, so that the patients chi would transfer

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<v Speaker 1>to the child. Some methods worked better than others. Even

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<v Speaker 1>in these early times, the inoculators had standards for who

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<v Speaker 1>could or should be inoculated. They avoided the procedure for

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<v Speaker 1>medically fragile patients, who were more likely to develop full

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<v Speaker 1>blown smallpox. It was not recommended for the week or

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<v Speaker 1>otherwise diseased, or for pregnant women. They thought it was

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<v Speaker 1>better to inoculate before puberty. It's unclear which innoculation method

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<v Speaker 1>was favored by fushang Lin, but the story he wrote

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<v Speaker 1>about Mountain Amey and the three Taoists may be evidence

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<v Speaker 1>of the earliest known inoculators, so long ago that the

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<v Speaker 1>first Crusaders hadn't yet invaded Jerusalem, but it might just

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<v Speaker 1>be a story. Real documentation of inoculation doesn't come for

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<v Speaker 1>about five hundred more years. In volume six of the

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<v Speaker 1>late British historian Joseph Needham's enorm a series Science and

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<v Speaker 1>Civilization in China, there is a reference to a fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>forty nine medical text by a Ming dynasty physician. That

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<v Speaker 1>quote casually mentions smallpox inoculation as if it is already

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<v Speaker 1>by then a common practice in China. That's one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty years before the first known inoculation in say, England.

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<v Speaker 1>But the point is nobody really knows exactly when or

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<v Speaker 1>where innoculation began. All we have our stories. In the

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen eighties and nineties, a relatively new disease ravaged the

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<v Speaker 1>city of Edinburgh, Scotland. It was called acquired immuno deficiency

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<v Speaker 1>syndrome or AIDS, the disease caused by HIV. In Edinburgh,

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<v Speaker 1>HIV spread fast, often through the sharing of needles by

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<v Speaker 1>intravenous drug users. They would in a drugs and shared

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<v Speaker 1>a needle, They passed the needle down, you know, amongst

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<v Speaker 1>these people in these kind of tenement buildings that fuel

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<v Speaker 1>this massive HIV ant break in Edinburgh. That's Eddie Holmes,

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<v Speaker 1>a virologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of Sydney.

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<v Speaker 1>Back in the early nineties, he was in Edinburgh studying

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<v Speaker 1>the spread of HIV. So what we were trying to

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<v Speaker 1>do was trying to work out how the virus was

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<v Speaker 1>spreading through that population, how it had diffused, and how

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<v Speaker 1>it got into sydy and how it spreading. I do

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<v Speaker 1>remember that actually getting in Around that time, he got

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<v Speaker 1>a car from Beatrice Hahn. Beatrice harm, who was then

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<v Speaker 1>working in virologist then working at the University of Alabama

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<v Speaker 1>at Birmingham. Hann asked Eddie if he was interested in

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<v Speaker 1>joining her and an HIV related research project. She's been

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<v Speaker 1>the person who's done more than anyone else to reveal

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<v Speaker 1>the origins of HIV. And she asked me in nineteen ninety,

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<v Speaker 1>was I interested in working on that? And I said, no,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to do my own, my own work on

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<v Speaker 1>something else. He turned her down to concentrate on his

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<v Speaker 1>own work. By then, AIDS had already killed more than

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<v Speaker 1>sixteen million people. It was known that there were two

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<v Speaker 1>main types of HIV, HIV one and two. Han and

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<v Speaker 1>her colleagues and not Eddie would go on to discover

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<v Speaker 1>that neither type of HIV came initially from humans. Both

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<v Speaker 1>originated in primates HIV one in chimpanzees and HIV two

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<v Speaker 1>in suity manga bays, each of which carry Simian immuno

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<v Speaker 1>deficiency virus or SIV. The virus jumped to humans at

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<v Speaker 1>least seven times, mostly in areas around Congo. It was

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<v Speaker 1>a stunning discovery. Hans said that it was especially sobering

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<v Speaker 1>that two very different primate species could serve as a

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<v Speaker 1>host for human pathogens. She was even more worried because

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<v Speaker 1>she knew that there were dozens more species of primates

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<v Speaker 1>that carried their own forms of SIV. Hans blockbuster paper

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<v Speaker 1>was exciting to Eddie home, but he had some regrets

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<v Speaker 1>knowing that he could have been a part of it.

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<v Speaker 1>That was like saying those the Beatles in nineteen sixty three,

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<v Speaker 1>you know I missed, I missed my opportunity. It's a

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<v Speaker 1>do some great work on that. Instead of discovering the

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<v Speaker 1>origin of HIV, Eddie began working in metagenomics, the study

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<v Speaker 1>of genetic material taken directly from the environment. So our

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<v Speaker 1>focus has always been on these kind of key species,

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<v Speaker 1>but with metagenomics you could at anything. So we're looking

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<v Speaker 1>at this an these wild Invertibrus and known and looked at,

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<v Speaker 1>and we found this amazing diversity of viruses in nature

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<v Speaker 1>and everywhere. So these animals we never looked at suddenly

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<v Speaker 1>saw this this huge diversity of viruses. The virus sphere

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<v Speaker 1>was enormous. Opening that door was facilitated by this this technology,

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<v Speaker 1>the methogenomics. By the time coronavirus hits, Eddie has become

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty big time evolutionary biologist. He studied the flu,

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<v Speaker 1>deng HIV, Hepotatis C and other viruses. He's got grants

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<v Speaker 1>and awards and fellowships, but he still hasn't had his

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<v Speaker 1>Beatles moment, not since turning down the chance to discover

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<v Speaker 1>the origin of HIV back in the nineties. In twenty twelve,

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<v Speaker 1>Eddie moves to Australia to work at the University of Sydney.

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<v Speaker 1>He begins a partnership with Professor Jong jen Jang, then

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<v Speaker 1>working at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

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<v Speaker 1>in Beijing. He's a character, as they say, I said

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<v Speaker 1>this thing where whenever I sent an email to him,

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<v Speaker 1>he would reply within fifteen minutes, right because he was

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<v Speaker 1>always checking. So I used to send him an email

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<v Speaker 1>like at six am in the morning, thinking right now,

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<v Speaker 1>I'll get he must be asleep. That's three am in

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<v Speaker 1>and then ten minutes later, Hi, Eddie, it's amazing. So

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<v Speaker 1>he'd wake up in the night just to check his

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<v Speaker 1>email you know he's extraordinarily hard working. I mean off

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<v Speaker 1>the scale. Using metagenomic elysis, Eddie and Jang sampled animals

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<v Speaker 1>of all kinds looking for RNA viruses, that is, viruses

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<v Speaker 1>that have rabuclaic acid as their based genetic material, like coronavirus.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of the animals they look at include bats, mice, pigs,

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<v Speaker 1>and birds, but also snakes, crabs, spiders, ticks, shrimp, crayfish,

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<v Speaker 1>woodlight tapeworm, mosquitoes, centipedes, millipedes, leeches, earthworms, octopus, snails, oysters, muscles, clams, barnacles,

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<v Speaker 1>even goddamn sea cucumbers. No species is too obscure In

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<v Speaker 1>these animals and their parasites, they discover thousands of new viruses.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of their work is done in and around Wuhan,

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<v Speaker 1>an enormous city in central China. It's not very well

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<v Speaker 1>known in the West at the time, but with eleven

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<v Speaker 1>million people, Wuhan is bigger than New York or Paris.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a very big city. It's extremely well connected in China.

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<v Speaker 1>It's very famous for being a travel hub because because

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<v Speaker 1>the Yancy River goes through it's the big river kind

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<v Speaker 1>of delta or big river system brother and the train system.

0:16:13.005 --> 0:16:15.085
<v Speaker 1>You can get from basically anywhere in China to Ruhan

0:16:15.125 --> 0:16:17.165
<v Speaker 1>about six and a half house as an international airport,

0:16:17.205 --> 0:16:19.565
<v Speaker 1>so it's a big hub. It's a really big hub.

0:16:20.165 --> 0:16:24.845
<v Speaker 1>Also around Ruhan, it's just this you know, pristine natural environments.

0:16:24.925 --> 0:16:28.685
<v Speaker 1>Actually's a very interesting place to sample. In twenty fourteen,

0:16:28.845 --> 0:16:31.685
<v Speaker 1>Eddie and Jang even visit the place most associated with

0:16:31.725 --> 0:16:36.365
<v Speaker 1>the first cases of coronavirus, the Huanan seafood wholesale market.

0:16:38.445 --> 0:16:41.085
<v Speaker 1>The local CDC took me there because they said, look

0:16:41.085 --> 0:16:43.965
<v Speaker 1>at this place, it's a really good place for a

0:16:44.005 --> 0:16:51.485
<v Speaker 1>disease to emerge. It's probably like two big supermarkets glued together,

0:16:52.205 --> 0:16:56.005
<v Speaker 1>the set of indoor alleys with a kind of road

0:16:56.085 --> 0:16:57.645
<v Speaker 1>to the middle of it. There's lots of it. It's

0:16:57.685 --> 0:17:01.165
<v Speaker 1>like an indoor, big indoor market, and there's lots of stores,

0:17:01.205 --> 0:17:04.445
<v Speaker 1>and there's there's kind of gutters, there's lots of things

0:17:04.445 --> 0:17:06.925
<v Speaker 1>on sales. There's lots of eye products, lots of fish,

0:17:07.085 --> 0:17:11.685
<v Speaker 1>lots of frozen products. And there's one section where there

0:17:11.685 --> 0:17:16.245
<v Speaker 1>were wildlife. I mean I saw mammalian wildlife there. There's ice,

0:17:16.245 --> 0:17:19.445
<v Speaker 1>saw rodents there, and variety of other things. There's also

0:17:19.485 --> 0:17:22.405
<v Speaker 1>these famous kind of like menu boards outside showing some

0:17:22.485 --> 0:17:26.845
<v Speaker 1>of the kind of wildlife that they're they're selling. It's

0:17:26.925 --> 0:17:29.325
<v Speaker 1>very closed. It feels kind of like, you know, it

0:17:29.405 --> 0:17:33.205
<v Speaker 1>feels kind of sweaty and cramped, and it feels like

0:17:33.285 --> 0:17:38.765
<v Speaker 1>kind of incubator in a way. You know. I took

0:17:38.765 --> 0:17:42.725
<v Speaker 1>the photographs, really crappy photographer took of these raccoon dogs, okay,

0:17:42.925 --> 0:17:46.845
<v Speaker 1>in these cages that raccoon dogs are weird. Theircadians in

0:17:46.845 --> 0:17:49.325
<v Speaker 1>the dog founding and their fur farm, and I think

0:17:49.325 --> 0:17:53.245
<v Speaker 1>they're used for food as well. And what I realized

0:17:53.325 --> 0:17:56.925
<v Speaker 1>is that raccoon dogs they were implicated in the first

0:17:56.925 --> 0:17:59.445
<v Speaker 1>Stars outbreak of two thousand and two two thousand and

0:17:59.525 --> 0:18:02.245
<v Speaker 1>three because there were positive raccoon dogs in these markets

0:18:02.285 --> 0:18:05.285
<v Speaker 1>in Grand Dumb and there they were in this market

0:18:05.765 --> 0:18:12.365
<v Speaker 1>in Wuhan. During the two years before the outbreak of

0:18:12.405 --> 0:18:15.205
<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen, Eddie and Jang are working on a study

0:18:15.205 --> 0:18:18.685
<v Speaker 1>of Central Hospital of Wuhan. They're studying patients with acute

0:18:18.725 --> 0:18:22.725
<v Speaker 1>respiratory disease symptoms and trying to find out the cars. Again,

0:18:22.765 --> 0:18:26.205
<v Speaker 1>this is before COVID nineteen, But what that meant was

0:18:26.245 --> 0:18:29.965
<v Speaker 1>we were kind of like on site almost looking at

0:18:29.965 --> 0:18:34.525
<v Speaker 1>the same Z syndrome in the right tissue samples with

0:18:34.645 --> 0:18:39.165
<v Speaker 1>the right technology, and so we happen to be in

0:18:39.205 --> 0:18:41.165
<v Speaker 1>the wrong place the wrong time. I feel like when

0:18:41.165 --> 0:18:44.085
<v Speaker 1>it all kind of started, and that gave us the

0:18:44.205 --> 0:18:47.125
<v Speaker 1>kind of an open door to really try and look

0:18:47.125 --> 0:18:49.805
<v Speaker 1>at this some of the early first cases to see

0:18:49.805 --> 0:18:57.885
<v Speaker 1>what was going on. In mid December of twenty nineteen,

0:18:58.365 --> 0:19:00.605
<v Speaker 1>the forty one year old worker at the Huanan seafood

0:19:00.605 --> 0:19:05.885
<v Speaker 1>wholesale market begins getting pneumonia like symptoms, fever, calf pain, easiness,

0:19:06.405 --> 0:19:09.685
<v Speaker 1>that kind of stuff. A few days later, the patient

0:19:09.765 --> 0:19:12.725
<v Speaker 1>is admitted to Central Hospital of Wuhan, among the very

0:19:12.765 --> 0:19:16.725
<v Speaker 1>earliest identified novel coronavirus patients in the world, the same

0:19:16.765 --> 0:19:19.685
<v Speaker 1>hospital where Eddie and Jang have already been studying patients

0:19:19.725 --> 0:19:24.605
<v Speaker 1>with similar symptoms. By this time, Eddie is back in

0:19:24.685 --> 0:19:28.405
<v Speaker 1>Australia and Jang is in Shanghai, but because of their

0:19:28.405 --> 0:19:32.125
<v Speaker 1>prior work at Central Hospital, they particularly Jang, are in

0:19:32.165 --> 0:19:34.645
<v Speaker 1>prime position to see what's going on with these strangely

0:19:34.685 --> 0:19:39.885
<v Speaker 1>afflicted patients. Early in the afternoon on January third, Jang

0:19:39.925 --> 0:19:43.285
<v Speaker 1>receives a package, a metal box holding a test tube

0:19:43.325 --> 0:19:46.725
<v Speaker 1>packed in dry ice. Inside the test tube is a

0:19:46.765 --> 0:19:52.365
<v Speaker 1>swabbed sample from the sick market worker. By this time,

0:19:52.525 --> 0:19:54.965
<v Speaker 1>word of a new contagious virus is spreading among the

0:19:55.005 --> 0:19:58.685
<v Speaker 1>public health community. The first news reports about this mysterious

0:19:58.725 --> 0:20:02.005
<v Speaker 1>illness have been published. In China. There are forty four

0:20:02.085 --> 0:20:06.245
<v Speaker 1>or so confirmed pneumonia of unknown origin cases. Seafood market

0:20:06.245 --> 0:20:10.165
<v Speaker 1>has been closed. Many countries and the World Health Organization

0:20:10.205 --> 0:20:11.845
<v Speaker 1>are trying to figure out what the heck is going

0:20:11.885 --> 0:20:14.645
<v Speaker 1>on and if this disease is going to cross borders.

0:20:16.925 --> 0:20:18.765
<v Speaker 1>Jiang does not know that the test tube in front

0:20:18.765 --> 0:20:21.045
<v Speaker 1>of him contains a sample of a virus that would

0:20:21.085 --> 0:20:24.725
<v Speaker 1>take over the world within months, but he knows it's important.

0:20:25.725 --> 0:20:28.565
<v Speaker 1>Rumors are already spreading that it is SARS like which

0:20:28.605 --> 0:20:32.285
<v Speaker 1>in China and especially in Chinese virologist circles, is a

0:20:32.285 --> 0:20:39.165
<v Speaker 1>big deal. The first severe acute respiratory syndrome where SARS

0:20:39.205 --> 0:20:42.365
<v Speaker 1>epidemic was discovered in the city of Foshan in China

0:20:42.565 --> 0:20:45.805
<v Speaker 1>in November two thousand and two. Eventually it's spread to

0:20:45.845 --> 0:20:50.605
<v Speaker 1>more than eight thousand people in twenty nine countries. SARS

0:20:50.645 --> 0:20:54.485
<v Speaker 1>one was internationally embarrassing for Chinese leadership. They could not

0:20:54.525 --> 0:20:57.805
<v Speaker 1>contain the outbreak and could not treat the disease. Western

0:20:57.845 --> 0:21:03.845
<v Speaker 1>media reported aggressively on China's failures. The last thing Jiang

0:21:04.045 --> 0:21:06.645
<v Speaker 1>or his country wanted was another There are stars, and

0:21:06.845 --> 0:21:12.085
<v Speaker 1>Jang strongly suspected he had it. Sitting in that test tube.

0:21:14.245 --> 0:21:17.085
<v Speaker 1>For the next two days, working around the clock, Jang

0:21:17.125 --> 0:21:20.605
<v Speaker 1>and his team worked to sequence the virus. Around two

0:21:20.605 --> 0:21:29.205
<v Speaker 1>am on the fifth, it was done. Eddie gets an

0:21:29.205 --> 0:21:32.925
<v Speaker 1>email from Jang. Jang emailed me and says, please call

0:21:32.965 --> 0:21:35.045
<v Speaker 1>me immediately. I was driving to the beach and my

0:21:35.125 --> 0:21:38.485
<v Speaker 1>in laws for breakfast, right because it's January. It's summer

0:21:38.485 --> 0:21:40.645
<v Speaker 1>in Sydney, right, And that was that was like eight

0:21:40.725 --> 0:21:42.925
<v Speaker 1>am in Sydney time, so it must have been like

0:21:42.965 --> 0:21:46.885
<v Speaker 1>five o'clock in the morning in Shanghai. And so I

0:21:47.005 --> 0:21:49.765
<v Speaker 1>ranging on. I was in the phone my inlaws and

0:21:50.725 --> 0:21:54.165
<v Speaker 1>he said they managed to get the complete genome on

0:21:54.285 --> 0:21:58.165
<v Speaker 1>the fifth in January. And they they they literally worked,

0:21:58.725 --> 0:22:01.165
<v Speaker 1>you know, non so it took forty hours. They worked NonStop.

0:22:01.965 --> 0:22:03.885
<v Speaker 1>So just put it in context, it's actually very interesting.

0:22:03.885 --> 0:22:08.045
<v Speaker 1>So it took forty hours for some to gain the

0:22:08.085 --> 0:22:14.005
<v Speaker 1>full genome. Okay, two years, two years for HIV to

0:22:14.045 --> 0:22:16.485
<v Speaker 1>be described as the cause of AIDS and took forty

0:22:16.525 --> 0:22:23.205
<v Speaker 1>hours to find this virus. Okay, Now Jang knows he's

0:22:23.205 --> 0:22:26.845
<v Speaker 1>a virus very closely related to SARS one. He reports

0:22:26.845 --> 0:22:29.365
<v Speaker 1>his findings to China's Ministry of Health and to public

0:22:29.405 --> 0:22:33.405
<v Speaker 1>health officials in Wuhan. He also submits the genetic sequence

0:22:33.445 --> 0:22:36.325
<v Speaker 1>for review to a database run by the US NIH

0:22:37.045 --> 0:22:39.525
<v Speaker 1>and as part of a paper co authored by Eddie

0:22:39.565 --> 0:22:42.485
<v Speaker 1>for the journal Nature. But the genetic sequence has not

0:22:42.565 --> 0:22:46.245
<v Speaker 1>been released publicly, which means researchers can't study it's thousands

0:22:46.245 --> 0:22:48.365
<v Speaker 1>of bits of data and use it to start figuring

0:22:48.365 --> 0:22:50.605
<v Speaker 1>out how to stop it, how to build a vaccine

0:22:50.605 --> 0:22:54.005
<v Speaker 1>to protect people from the virus. To put it in perspective,

0:22:54.285 --> 0:22:57.005
<v Speaker 1>there is at most one reported death at this point.

0:22:57.565 --> 0:23:00.765
<v Speaker 1>No other countries have known cases. Nobody could have guessed

0:23:00.765 --> 0:23:04.445
<v Speaker 1>this virus would change the world. Still, the idea that

0:23:04.445 --> 0:23:08.405
<v Speaker 1>there could be another SAR or MIRS is terrifying. MRS

0:23:08.845 --> 0:23:12.325
<v Speaker 1>or Middle East Respiratory Syndrome was another coronavirus that had

0:23:12.365 --> 0:23:15.365
<v Speaker 1>spread in twenty twelve and killed nine hundred people in

0:23:15.405 --> 0:23:19.685
<v Speaker 1>eighteen countries. Nobody wants to see a third coronavirus outbreak.

0:23:20.925 --> 0:23:24.245
<v Speaker 1>Six days after Jang finishes sequencing the virus. The genetic

0:23:24.285 --> 0:23:28.045
<v Speaker 1>information is still not out there, but rumors of the

0:23:28.085 --> 0:23:31.725
<v Speaker 1>novel coronavirus have spread, as has word of the embargoed

0:23:31.765 --> 0:23:35.925
<v Speaker 1>paper in Nature. But Jang doesn't know how Chinese officials

0:23:35.925 --> 0:23:38.565
<v Speaker 1>will react to him releasing the sequence, and a few

0:23:38.645 --> 0:23:42.005
<v Speaker 1>days earlier the government told local authorities not to publish

0:23:42.045 --> 0:23:45.565
<v Speaker 1>information about the virus because the Ministry of Health were

0:23:45.565 --> 0:23:49.045
<v Speaker 1>controlling everything and they wanted they wanted to control the message,

0:23:49.085 --> 0:23:52.085
<v Speaker 1>they wanted to damp down on rumors, they wanted to

0:23:52.125 --> 0:23:55.685
<v Speaker 1>be in control of the situation. And as the days

0:23:55.725 --> 0:23:59.765
<v Speaker 1>went on, more information was slowly being kind of released,

0:24:00.645 --> 0:24:02.565
<v Speaker 1>and so there was I think the Wall Street Journal

0:24:02.565 --> 0:24:05.725
<v Speaker 1>in January eighth published that it was a corona virus.

0:24:05.765 --> 0:24:08.725
<v Speaker 1>I think the Chinese authorities on the ninth announced it

0:24:08.765 --> 0:24:12.685
<v Speaker 1>was a coronavirus. As as the days wore on, it

0:24:12.805 --> 0:24:15.725
<v Speaker 1>got more and more kind of ridiculous that they weren't

0:24:15.805 --> 0:24:19.045
<v Speaker 1>saying exactly what it is, and this is this is

0:24:19.085 --> 0:24:22.645
<v Speaker 1>the sequence, right. We sent our paper off to Nature,

0:24:22.685 --> 0:24:26.605
<v Speaker 1>off to the journal Nature, and they were very keen

0:24:26.685 --> 0:24:34.805
<v Speaker 1>for the sequence to be released as well. On January eleventh,

0:24:35.285 --> 0:24:38.245
<v Speaker 1>jan gets on a plane in Shanghai and it's about

0:24:38.325 --> 0:24:46.925
<v Speaker 1>to take off when a phone buzzards. It's Eddie and

0:24:47.085 --> 0:24:49.405
<v Speaker 1>I said, we need to release these data. Nokay, I've

0:24:49.405 --> 0:24:51.285
<v Speaker 1>been emailing about this and we have to get this release.

0:24:51.845 --> 0:24:53.565
<v Speaker 1>And he said, okay, okay, do it, do it, do it?

0:24:53.845 --> 0:24:55.645
<v Speaker 1>And I said, can you send me the seat I

0:24:55.645 --> 0:24:57.565
<v Speaker 1>haven't got the seats myself. Can you please send it

0:24:57.645 --> 0:24:59.445
<v Speaker 1>to me right? And so he got I think he

0:24:59.525 --> 0:25:01.085
<v Speaker 1>got one of his one of his post docs to

0:25:01.205 --> 0:25:03.525
<v Speaker 1>email me that the sequence. So it arrived on my

0:25:03.725 --> 0:25:07.445
<v Speaker 1>on my email and I thought, oh, you know, Franky,

0:25:07.485 --> 0:25:10.245
<v Speaker 1>I'm knowing. I better get it's done right. So and

0:25:10.365 --> 0:25:13.485
<v Speaker 1>that whole process for me getting the sequence in the

0:25:13.525 --> 0:25:16.405
<v Speaker 1>email to releasing it, I think it's like fifty two

0:25:16.485 --> 0:25:18.685
<v Speaker 1>minutes or something like that. If I didn't even chet

0:25:18.725 --> 0:25:21.805
<v Speaker 1>what it was. And after I said I've posted it,

0:25:22.045 --> 0:25:24.805
<v Speaker 1>it could have been any odd chunk, but luckily it

0:25:25.005 --> 0:25:30.645
<v Speaker 1>was actually the virus. So and then that was that moment.

0:25:30.725 --> 0:25:34.565
<v Speaker 1>Then that was a huge kind of burden off my shoulders.

0:25:34.565 --> 0:25:38.525
<v Speaker 1>At that point, he posts the sequence on a website

0:25:38.565 --> 0:25:43.085
<v Speaker 1>called Virological, a somewhat obscure open access epidemiology discussion board

0:25:43.285 --> 0:25:48.165
<v Speaker 1>founded by one of Eddie's friends. Jang is not the

0:25:48.245 --> 0:25:51.005
<v Speaker 1>first to sequence the virus by this time. It's already

0:25:51.045 --> 0:25:53.445
<v Speaker 1>been done at private labs in Wolhuan as early as

0:25:53.525 --> 0:25:56.765
<v Speaker 1>late December, but Jang and Eddie's sequence is the first

0:25:56.805 --> 0:26:00.285
<v Speaker 1>to catch international notice. Eddie tweets out a link to

0:26:00.365 --> 0:26:04.645
<v Speaker 1>the sequence in January eleventh, Sydney time. This is the

0:26:04.725 --> 0:26:10.765
<v Speaker 1>moment kicking off development for the COVID nineteen vaccines. One

0:26:10.845 --> 0:26:13.245
<v Speaker 1>of the first replies to the tweet is from a

0:26:13.285 --> 0:26:16.325
<v Speaker 1>professor of microbiology and Mount Sinai in New York City.

0:26:16.965 --> 0:26:19.485
<v Speaker 1>He sends a gift of hundreds of planes taking off

0:26:19.725 --> 0:26:24.365
<v Speaker 1>in unison, along with the words and so it begins.

0:26:44.405 --> 0:26:48.045
<v Speaker 1>What if it never began? That is, what if we

0:26:48.125 --> 0:26:51.005
<v Speaker 1>were never struck by the coronavirus known as SARS cove two.

0:26:52.365 --> 0:26:56.205
<v Speaker 1>What if twenty twenty was just a normal year. We

0:26:56.405 --> 0:27:03.885
<v Speaker 1>never quarantined, never wore masks, never sanitized groceries, We just lived.

0:27:05.965 --> 0:27:10.085
<v Speaker 1>I spoke with another evolutionary biologist. His name is Joel Wortheim.

0:27:10.845 --> 0:27:13.725
<v Speaker 1>He's an associate professor of medicine at you See, San Diego.

0:27:14.725 --> 0:27:17.405
<v Speaker 1>He ran these computer based simulations of the virus going

0:27:17.485 --> 0:27:20.125
<v Speaker 1>back and forward in time. The goal was to describe

0:27:20.165 --> 0:27:22.565
<v Speaker 1>the likeliest version of the way the virus spread after

0:27:22.685 --> 0:27:26.125
<v Speaker 1>it first infected a human being. But while doing so,

0:27:26.325 --> 0:27:29.365
<v Speaker 1>he discovered that the very likeliest outcome was that we

0:27:29.525 --> 0:27:33.485
<v Speaker 1>never had a pandemic to begin with, That coronavirus infected

0:27:33.525 --> 0:27:38.445
<v Speaker 1>one person and never a second. That coronavirus dematerialized as

0:27:38.525 --> 0:27:41.765
<v Speaker 1>quickly as it materialized, and before we even knew it existed,

0:27:42.445 --> 0:27:46.605
<v Speaker 1>it was gone seven out of ten of our simulations

0:27:47.325 --> 0:27:51.845
<v Speaker 1>when extinct on their own, So without any mitigation efforts,

0:27:51.885 --> 0:27:55.645
<v Speaker 1>without any sort of attempt to slow down transmission of

0:27:55.685 --> 0:28:00.485
<v Speaker 1>the virus, the natural progression of seventy percent of stars

0:28:00.565 --> 0:28:05.245
<v Speaker 1>CoV two introductions into the human population result in natural extinction.

0:28:07.085 --> 0:28:09.645
<v Speaker 1>So we were sort of unlucky in that we were

0:28:09.845 --> 0:28:14.005
<v Speaker 1>part of at thirty percent where it did not go extinct. Yeah,

0:28:14.445 --> 0:28:20.245
<v Speaker 1>it was really just bad luck in that regard. Joel

0:28:20.325 --> 0:28:23.565
<v Speaker 1>specializes in taking viruses back in time using something called

0:28:23.605 --> 0:28:28.325
<v Speaker 1>the molecular clock. I'll let him explain. The molecular clock

0:28:28.565 --> 0:28:31.565
<v Speaker 1>is a really important tool and one of my favorite

0:28:31.605 --> 0:28:35.205
<v Speaker 1>to use in research. It basically helps us estimate the

0:28:35.365 --> 0:28:38.565
<v Speaker 1>number of changes that are happening in a viral genome

0:28:38.965 --> 0:28:43.165
<v Speaker 1>over time, over weeks, months, and years, and by sampling

0:28:44.245 --> 0:28:48.165
<v Speaker 1>a lot of different viruses at different time points, we

0:28:48.325 --> 0:28:51.725
<v Speaker 1>can estimate that rate of change, and then we can

0:28:51.885 --> 0:28:55.085
<v Speaker 1>basically count to the number of mutations going back in

0:28:55.245 --> 0:28:57.605
<v Speaker 1>time that it would have taken to get back to

0:28:57.725 --> 0:29:01.485
<v Speaker 1>the ancestor of all of the viruses we saw. So

0:29:01.645 --> 0:29:04.485
<v Speaker 1>we can put a date on a virus that was

0:29:04.645 --> 0:29:08.725
<v Speaker 1>never observed based on looking at the rate of change

0:29:08.765 --> 0:29:14.925
<v Speaker 1>in viruses that we did observe. In KSE, you didn't

0:29:14.965 --> 0:29:18.645
<v Speaker 1>get that. Joel and his colleagues take RNA of viruses

0:29:18.685 --> 0:29:21.605
<v Speaker 1>at different times, count the differences in the number of

0:29:21.645 --> 0:29:25.365
<v Speaker 1>mutations at each point, and use the differences to estimate

0:29:25.445 --> 0:29:29.965
<v Speaker 1>when viruses start to diverge from each other. In twenty twenty,

0:29:30.165 --> 0:29:32.965
<v Speaker 1>Joel and some colleagues use the molecular clock to estimate

0:29:33.045 --> 0:29:36.285
<v Speaker 1>when the first cases of COVID appeared in Hubei. Hube

0:29:36.445 --> 0:29:40.005
<v Speaker 1>is a landlocked central province in China. Uhan is the capital.

0:29:41.685 --> 0:29:44.285
<v Speaker 1>Using all the information available on all known cases in

0:29:44.405 --> 0:29:47.205
<v Speaker 1>hube they determined that the first case, the index case,

0:29:47.405 --> 0:29:51.445
<v Speaker 1>appeared in hube sometime between mid October to bid November.

0:29:52.125 --> 0:29:55.085
<v Speaker 1>That's weeks before anyone knew of a mysterious virus making

0:29:55.125 --> 0:29:59.245
<v Speaker 1>people sick. Even local experts like Jang had no idea

0:29:59.325 --> 0:30:02.885
<v Speaker 1>at this point, so the first outbreak of the virus

0:30:03.005 --> 0:30:06.325
<v Speaker 1>almost certainly occurred much earlier than even the first reports

0:30:06.365 --> 0:30:10.525
<v Speaker 1>in China. In the US, we're all out trick or

0:30:10.565 --> 0:30:13.165
<v Speaker 1>treating for Halloween twenty nineteen, and the virus that would

0:30:13.165 --> 0:30:16.645
<v Speaker 1>eventually halt all our lives may have already been spreading

0:30:16.685 --> 0:30:23.285
<v Speaker 1>across the world. Crazy, maybe even crazier is another study

0:30:23.365 --> 0:30:26.485
<v Speaker 1>by Joel. This one was done way back in twenty thirteen.

0:30:26.765 --> 0:30:30.285
<v Speaker 1>This is a bit of a hipster coronavirus paper. We

0:30:30.365 --> 0:30:33.325
<v Speaker 1>were studying it before it was cool. I'm still proud

0:30:33.365 --> 0:30:35.325
<v Speaker 1>of this paper where actually we're proud of it than ever.

0:30:35.845 --> 0:30:38.645
<v Speaker 1>More people, and by that I mean more scientists have

0:30:38.805 --> 0:30:41.485
<v Speaker 1>read this paper in the last year than read it

0:30:41.645 --> 0:30:45.485
<v Speaker 1>in the previous eight years. More people are downloading it,

0:30:45.605 --> 0:30:50.085
<v Speaker 1>more people are citing it. We are shocked that this

0:30:50.285 --> 0:30:54.085
<v Speaker 1>paper was rediscovered. I'm not shocked that the paper was

0:30:54.165 --> 0:30:57.045
<v Speaker 1>rediscovered in our case by Gabby Watts, the producer on

0:30:57.165 --> 0:30:59.765
<v Speaker 1>this series. And the reason I'm not shocked is that

0:30:59.845 --> 0:31:03.005
<v Speaker 1>the paper has the tantalizing title a case for the

0:31:03.085 --> 0:31:08.285
<v Speaker 1>ancient origin of coronaviruses. That's exactly the case Joel and

0:31:08.365 --> 0:31:12.405
<v Speaker 1>his colleagues make in the paper that coronaviruses are super

0:31:12.565 --> 0:31:18.805
<v Speaker 1>damn old. They looked at a lot of coronaviruses. So

0:31:18.965 --> 0:31:23.565
<v Speaker 1>you have turkey coronaviruses, you have magpie robin coronaviruses, you

0:31:23.645 --> 0:31:29.765
<v Speaker 1>have bovine coronaviruses, various different back coronaviruses. I don't even

0:31:29.805 --> 0:31:31.605
<v Speaker 1>have the names of them. I just have the They

0:31:31.685 --> 0:31:37.005
<v Speaker 1>just have boring names. Yeah, I'm sorry, I kind of disagree, Joel.

0:31:37.805 --> 0:31:42.965
<v Speaker 1>What about duck coronavirus, thrush coronavirus, widgeon not pigeon coronavirus,

0:31:43.525 --> 0:31:55.605
<v Speaker 1>and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus. Before Joel's paper, molecular clock

0:31:55.645 --> 0:31:59.765
<v Speaker 1>analysis suggested that the common descendant of coronaviruses, the sort

0:31:59.765 --> 0:32:04.325
<v Speaker 1>of coronavirus zero or coronavirus eve, existed about ten thousand

0:32:04.445 --> 0:32:07.405
<v Speaker 1>years ago, but this seemed far too recent for Joel,

0:32:07.805 --> 0:32:11.765
<v Speaker 1>especially since bats and birds, the most common carriers of coronaviruses,

0:32:12.205 --> 0:32:16.045
<v Speaker 1>have been around for millions of years. The molecular clock

0:32:16.165 --> 0:32:19.165
<v Speaker 1>works really well for viruses in the short term. You

0:32:19.285 --> 0:32:23.365
<v Speaker 1>can watch a virus like SARSCOBE two or influence a

0:32:23.445 --> 0:32:26.045
<v Speaker 1>spread around the world, and you can count those mutations

0:32:26.405 --> 0:32:28.525
<v Speaker 1>and see how quickly they occur, and you can then

0:32:28.845 --> 0:32:32.645
<v Speaker 1>estimate going back in time, well, this virus probably existed

0:32:32.765 --> 0:32:35.645
<v Speaker 1>six months ago, this ancestor a year ago, this answer

0:32:35.765 --> 0:32:38.645
<v Speaker 1>ten or fifty or one hundred years ago. But once

0:32:38.725 --> 0:32:42.885
<v Speaker 1>you start getting past that point in time, things start

0:32:42.965 --> 0:32:46.485
<v Speaker 1>to get a little weird for viruses. And the reason

0:32:46.565 --> 0:32:48.925
<v Speaker 1>we think that is because those mutations that used to

0:32:49.005 --> 0:32:52.405
<v Speaker 1>click off regularly, well, the same mutation seemed to be

0:32:52.525 --> 0:32:56.725
<v Speaker 1>happening over and over and over again. So instead of

0:32:57.165 --> 0:33:00.645
<v Speaker 1>mutation indicating a week or a month or a year,

0:33:02.765 --> 0:33:05.325
<v Speaker 1>you're gonna count one mutation and that's actually going to

0:33:05.365 --> 0:33:08.765
<v Speaker 1>be ten or one hundred years because that same change

0:33:08.805 --> 0:33:11.445
<v Speaker 1>has happened ten or one hundred times. So you start

0:33:11.525 --> 0:33:15.045
<v Speaker 1>to undercount. So instead of looking at a virus and say, well,

0:33:15.045 --> 0:33:18.165
<v Speaker 1>if we just put the evolutionary rate on this virus

0:33:18.245 --> 0:33:21.645
<v Speaker 1>and it's you know, ten thousand years old, your virus

0:33:21.765 --> 0:33:24.765
<v Speaker 1>is there could actually be ten million years old and

0:33:24.925 --> 0:33:29.165
<v Speaker 1>they would look the same. In other words, Joel believed

0:33:29.205 --> 0:33:35.445
<v Speaker 1>the molecular clock for RNA viruses was broken. When you

0:33:35.525 --> 0:33:38.405
<v Speaker 1>think about evolution and change in animals or other living things,

0:33:38.685 --> 0:33:42.445
<v Speaker 1>you tend to think of evolution favoring change, adaptation to

0:33:42.525 --> 0:33:46.925
<v Speaker 1>different environments, promotion of new positive traits. But with viruses

0:33:47.085 --> 0:33:50.085
<v Speaker 1>it's different. In fact, it's not even agreed upon by

0:33:50.125 --> 0:33:54.125
<v Speaker 1>scientists whether viruses are living things. They have an impact

0:33:54.205 --> 0:33:58.405
<v Speaker 1>on living things, but as one virologists put it, viruses

0:33:58.485 --> 0:34:05.965
<v Speaker 1>exist at the border between chemistry and life. If viruses

0:34:06.045 --> 0:34:08.325
<v Speaker 1>may not even be alive, it stands to reason they

0:34:08.365 --> 0:34:14.885
<v Speaker 1>would evolve differently than living things, and they do. Viruses,

0:34:14.885 --> 0:34:18.085
<v Speaker 1>when they evolve, tend to remove negative mutations rather than

0:34:18.165 --> 0:34:23.605
<v Speaker 1>accentuate the positive ones. That's called purifying selection. Mostly when

0:34:23.645 --> 0:34:27.605
<v Speaker 1>we think about viruses or evolution in general, we like

0:34:27.765 --> 0:34:31.845
<v Speaker 1>to think about a natural selection evolution favoring changes. We

0:34:31.965 --> 0:34:33.965
<v Speaker 1>adapt to this, and we adapt to that, And we

0:34:34.285 --> 0:34:37.485
<v Speaker 1>think about this doubly so for viruses, where they're constantly

0:34:37.565 --> 0:34:41.605
<v Speaker 1>adapting to the host environment, to the immune system, to

0:34:41.965 --> 0:34:45.805
<v Speaker 1>drugs that we try and throw at them. But really

0:34:46.565 --> 0:34:50.725
<v Speaker 1>the main driver of evolution in viruses is actually to

0:34:50.925 --> 0:34:55.685
<v Speaker 1>stay where you are, to keep your genetic sequence where

0:34:55.725 --> 0:34:59.605
<v Speaker 1>it is, and that's purifying selection, and that it removes changes.

0:35:00.205 --> 0:35:04.205
<v Speaker 1>And what we notice is that if a virus is

0:35:04.245 --> 0:35:08.845
<v Speaker 1>able to change from one, say genetic position to another,

0:35:09.365 --> 0:35:10.805
<v Speaker 1>what it's going to do is it's probably just going

0:35:10.885 --> 0:35:13.885
<v Speaker 1>to keep making those same changes again and again. And

0:35:14.045 --> 0:35:16.845
<v Speaker 1>that's strong purifying selection. And when you're forced to make

0:35:16.925 --> 0:35:19.885
<v Speaker 1>the same change again and again and again rather than

0:35:20.565 --> 0:35:24.445
<v Speaker 1>making any change you want, that's strong purifying selection. And

0:35:24.605 --> 0:35:27.925
<v Speaker 1>that's going to hide the ticking of the molecular clock.

0:35:28.325 --> 0:35:30.445
<v Speaker 1>It's going to make it look like only one hundred

0:35:30.525 --> 0:35:33.685
<v Speaker 1>or a thousand years have passed, when really it's taken

0:35:33.725 --> 0:35:36.525
<v Speaker 1>a million years, but we've only made the same changes

0:35:36.565 --> 0:35:41.365
<v Speaker 1>again and again and again. So after factoring in all

0:35:41.365 --> 0:35:44.285
<v Speaker 1>the potential mutations that the molecular clock may have missed

0:35:44.805 --> 0:35:48.325
<v Speaker 1>and that strong purifying selection may have hidden, Joel came

0:35:48.365 --> 0:35:52.205
<v Speaker 1>up with an estimate for the age of coronaviruses. Now

0:35:52.285 --> 0:35:56.045
<v Speaker 1>that's not Sars covi two, our current adversary, or STARS one,

0:35:56.805 --> 0:36:01.085
<v Speaker 1>or even poor signed epidemic diarrhea virus. That's all bat

0:36:01.125 --> 0:36:05.085
<v Speaker 1>and bird coronaviruses, which likely originate from a common ancestor.

0:36:06.685 --> 0:36:09.725
<v Speaker 1>The age they came up with not ten thousand years

0:36:10.125 --> 0:36:15.565
<v Speaker 1>two hundred and ninety three million years Some things were

0:36:15.605 --> 0:36:19.205
<v Speaker 1>different then. For one, the Earth had just one giant

0:36:19.325 --> 0:36:24.765
<v Speaker 1>land mass, a super consonant. Dragonflies and amphibians have just evolved,

0:36:25.165 --> 0:36:28.405
<v Speaker 1>while primitive ancestors of mammals and cockroaches are on the way.

0:36:29.005 --> 0:36:36.125
<v Speaker 1>No people, no dinosaurs, no netflix. Two hundred ninety three

0:36:36.125 --> 0:36:38.325
<v Speaker 1>million years ago is also not long after the time

0:36:38.405 --> 0:36:42.005
<v Speaker 1>that mammals and birds first diverged from each other. This

0:36:42.165 --> 0:36:45.405
<v Speaker 1>implies that ancestors of coronaviruses, which we find mostly in

0:36:45.485 --> 0:36:47.845
<v Speaker 1>bats and birds, could be as old as bats and

0:36:47.965 --> 0:36:54.605
<v Speaker 1>birds themselves. Maybe they developed in sinc Maybe coronaviruses are

0:36:54.605 --> 0:36:57.925
<v Speaker 1>wondering where do these humans come from? These humans that

0:36:58.045 --> 0:37:02.805
<v Speaker 1>infected our world. But Joel isn't super confident in his number.

0:37:03.605 --> 0:37:07.885
<v Speaker 1>He says, it's an extremely rough to it. As much

0:37:07.925 --> 0:37:10.485
<v Speaker 1>as I'd like to think, in all of that noise

0:37:10.805 --> 0:37:13.205
<v Speaker 1>and all of that uncertainty, we managed to hit the

0:37:13.325 --> 0:37:15.765
<v Speaker 1>nail on the head, going back hundreds of millions of

0:37:15.885 --> 0:37:20.405
<v Speaker 1>years and identifying the split between bats and birds. I

0:37:20.565 --> 0:37:24.205
<v Speaker 1>just think that that's a lucky happenstance. So we said, look,

0:37:24.605 --> 0:37:27.405
<v Speaker 1>it's possible that these viruses have been around in bats

0:37:27.445 --> 0:37:30.565
<v Speaker 1>since bats became bats, And these viruses have been around

0:37:30.605 --> 0:37:34.565
<v Speaker 1>in birds since birds became birds. And you can't use

0:37:34.645 --> 0:37:38.885
<v Speaker 1>the molecular clock to argue that they're younger, because the

0:37:39.005 --> 0:37:41.565
<v Speaker 1>molecael clock says they can be well, they can be

0:37:41.605 --> 0:37:55.685
<v Speaker 1>as old as time. Sometimes we tell stories because it

0:37:55.765 --> 0:37:59.405
<v Speaker 1>makes us feel better. I'm a writer. Sometimes I tell

0:37:59.485 --> 0:38:02.485
<v Speaker 1>stories to make me feel better, sometimes to make others

0:38:02.565 --> 0:38:07.445
<v Speaker 1>feel better or worse. If I'm being honest. Joel Wortheiman

0:38:07.485 --> 0:38:10.285
<v Speaker 1>says that the story his paper tells that these viruses

0:38:10.325 --> 0:38:13.365
<v Speaker 1>were around two hundred ninety three million years ago. It

0:38:13.525 --> 0:38:17.285
<v Speaker 1>may not be true at all. Coronaviruses might be far younger.

0:38:18.085 --> 0:38:23.565
<v Speaker 1>It's just a PhD educated, calculated and simulated guests. But

0:38:23.725 --> 0:38:27.805
<v Speaker 1>another virologists we've already heard about, has also studied ancient viruses.

0:38:28.685 --> 0:38:33.325
<v Speaker 1>Jeong Jenjang, Eddie Holmes's close collaborator, one of the heroes

0:38:33.365 --> 0:38:36.725
<v Speaker 1>of COVID. I wasn't able to speak directly with Jang,

0:38:37.285 --> 0:38:39.605
<v Speaker 1>but here he is in a World Signed Summit video

0:38:39.685 --> 0:38:43.125
<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty. Just to make sure you understand, I'll

0:38:43.125 --> 0:38:49.045
<v Speaker 1>speak along with Jang. Are these carraviros low Wart Brice sambled.

0:38:50.045 --> 0:38:53.445
<v Speaker 1>The discovery of viruses in low vertebrates sampled from the

0:38:53.525 --> 0:38:57.005
<v Speaker 1>ocean indicate that the RNA viruses that still infect us

0:38:57.045 --> 0:39:01.885
<v Speaker 1>today are ancient and have evolutionary histories that date back

0:39:01.925 --> 0:39:05.925
<v Speaker 1>to the first vertebrates and perhaps the first animals. So

0:39:06.325 --> 0:39:09.405
<v Speaker 1>for the first time we can definitely show that RNA

0:39:09.525 --> 0:39:13.085
<v Speaker 1>viruses are many millions of years old and have been

0:39:13.165 --> 0:39:17.885
<v Speaker 1>in existence since the first vertebrates existed. Viruses are everywhere,

0:39:18.005 --> 0:39:20.085
<v Speaker 1>and our work makes it clear that there are still

0:39:20.525 --> 0:39:24.605
<v Speaker 1>many millions more viruses still to be discovered. He's coward,

0:39:25.165 --> 0:39:30.405
<v Speaker 1>so your rivrsphea has to be redefined, and ours I

0:39:30.405 --> 0:39:42.165
<v Speaker 1>would change the pupil's honest thanguable. Like Joel's ancient coronavirus story,

0:39:42.565 --> 0:39:45.045
<v Speaker 1>the story of Mountain a May, where the divine doctor

0:39:45.085 --> 0:39:47.285
<v Speaker 1>comes down from the mountain and heals the governor's son

0:39:48.365 --> 0:39:51.565
<v Speaker 1>is probably made up, at least according to the source

0:39:51.605 --> 0:39:54.605
<v Speaker 1>where I read it. I found the story in a

0:39:54.725 --> 0:39:58.285
<v Speaker 1>University of London thesis by the medical historian Chia Feng Chang.

0:39:59.445 --> 0:40:01.245
<v Speaker 1>In the paper, she makes clear that there is no

0:40:01.405 --> 0:40:04.205
<v Speaker 1>contemporaneous written record of innoculation at the turn of the

0:40:04.245 --> 0:40:08.165
<v Speaker 1>second millennium, ad. In her thesis, Chang surmises that this

0:40:08.365 --> 0:40:11.925
<v Speaker 1>legend was used to justify smallpox inoculation in a sixteen hundreds,

0:40:12.325 --> 0:40:15.725
<v Speaker 1>when it was certainly practiced under the cloak of a

0:40:15.805 --> 0:40:18.925
<v Speaker 1>heavenly goddess. She says it would be easier to convince

0:40:19.005 --> 0:40:22.165
<v Speaker 1>people to get inoculated. She says these stories may have

0:40:22.245 --> 0:40:24.565
<v Speaker 1>been told to persuade patients or even doctors of the

0:40:24.645 --> 0:40:30.645
<v Speaker 1>practice's worthiness. It's good pr for inoculators. Her theory is

0:40:30.685 --> 0:40:33.485
<v Speaker 1>not quite as cool as a mystical doctor, a secret book,

0:40:33.925 --> 0:40:38.325
<v Speaker 1>and a healer transformed into a goddess of innoculator's working

0:40:38.365 --> 0:40:41.445
<v Speaker 1>a whole millennium ago on a sacred mountain. But it's

0:40:41.445 --> 0:40:56.045
<v Speaker 1>still a pretty good story. And how about Eddie Holmes's story.

0:40:57.085 --> 0:40:58.925
<v Speaker 1>He may have passed on the chance to discover the

0:40:59.005 --> 0:41:02.605
<v Speaker 1>origins of HIV, but he hit it big by posting

0:41:02.645 --> 0:41:05.685
<v Speaker 1>the genetic sequence for coronavirus so that the word world

0:41:05.685 --> 0:41:10.845
<v Speaker 1>could start fighting the virus create vaccines. It's finally Eddie's

0:41:10.885 --> 0:41:15.405
<v Speaker 1>Beatles moment. Right, You mentioned at the beginning of a

0:41:15.485 --> 0:41:17.365
<v Speaker 1>conversation that you sort of missed out or you may

0:41:17.405 --> 0:41:19.765
<v Speaker 1>have missed out in the Beatles moment of you know,

0:41:20.165 --> 0:41:23.685
<v Speaker 1>tracking HIV back to Congo or Cameroon. Um. But now

0:41:23.925 --> 0:41:25.725
<v Speaker 1>do you feel like this, this was your sort of

0:41:25.765 --> 0:41:28.005
<v Speaker 1>similar moment that you're able to sort of be there

0:41:28.005 --> 0:41:29.965
<v Speaker 1>at the very very beginning of this of this virus.

0:41:31.885 --> 0:41:35.285
<v Speaker 1>I wish it never happened. I honestly, I would change

0:41:35.525 --> 0:41:38.125
<v Speaker 1>anything to not be in this position I have to

0:41:38.205 --> 0:41:43.045
<v Speaker 1>say anything, So you know, maybe it's I don't regard

0:41:43.125 --> 0:41:44.685
<v Speaker 1>any of this is good at all. I regard this

0:41:44.805 --> 0:41:50.045
<v Speaker 1>as an absolute miserable thing to be involved in. So yeah,

0:41:50.125 --> 0:41:51.805
<v Speaker 1>I think it might be the defining point of my

0:41:52.005 --> 0:41:54.485
<v Speaker 1>of my career. I think I'll always be remembered for this.

0:41:54.645 --> 0:41:57.125
<v Speaker 1>But I mean I'd rather I wish I wasn't. I

0:41:57.245 --> 0:42:02.765
<v Speaker 1>honestly wish I wasn't. I wish it never happened. On

0:42:02.885 --> 0:42:04.845
<v Speaker 1>the next episode of long Shot, We're going to meet

0:42:04.885 --> 0:42:08.045
<v Speaker 1>a family of an oculation entrepreneurs and we'll speak to

0:42:08.125 --> 0:42:09.845
<v Speaker 1>one of the first people to ever get a COVID

0:42:09.925 --> 0:42:15.445
<v Speaker 1>nineteen Veccine. Long Shot is a production of School of

0:42:15.525 --> 0:42:20.205
<v Speaker 1>Humans and iHeartRadio. Today's episode was produced, written, and narrated

0:42:20.245 --> 0:42:23.325
<v Speaker 1>by me Sean Revive. My co producer is Gabby Watts.

0:42:24.165 --> 0:42:27.845
<v Speaker 1>Executive producers are Virginia Prescott, Brandon Barr, and ELC. Crowley.

0:42:28.445 --> 0:42:31.085
<v Speaker 1>Special thanks to Noel Brown at iHeartRadio and actor and

0:42:31.165 --> 0:42:35.125
<v Speaker 1>writer Leuis ivy Chen. Thank you to Falling Walls for

0:42:35.205 --> 0:42:38.445
<v Speaker 1>the clip of Young Jen j long shot was scored

0:42:38.485 --> 0:42:41.085
<v Speaker 1>by Jason Shannon with sound design and mixed by Harper

0:42:41.125 --> 0:42:54.285
<v Speaker 1>Harris at Tuonewelder's School of Humans.