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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action. Also, Hello everybody, and welcome

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Speaker 2: to the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm

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Speaker 2: your host, Anthony Dubundo. This is a special Australian Open

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Speaker 2: Best Bets addition, and today I'm joined by my two

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Speaker 2: close friends, Avery Zimmerman, head editor of tennis coverage at

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Speaker 2: Action Network, and Feel Gross, host of Monday Match Analysis

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Speaker 2: and a broadcaster for the Tennis Channel. Excited for two

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Speaker 2: weeks of Ozzie Open tennis, gentlemen, let's do like a

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Speaker 2: rapid fire favorite bets you've made for me. On the

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Speaker 2: men's side, it's Barattini plus five fifty to win his

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Speaker 2: quarter and then I did take Novak to win the

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Speaker 2: whole tournament at minus one ten. I just think his

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Speaker 2: path is so friendly that he's really only going to

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Speaker 2: have one or two land mines. Like the only truly

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Speaker 2: match where I would not feel great is of Kirios

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Speaker 2: fines form out of nowhere and just plays out of

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Speaker 2: his mind in like a potential quarter final. Maybe other

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Speaker 2: than that until the final, like I just don't see

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Speaker 2: anybody troubling Novak. And then Barattini plus five fifty buying

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Speaker 2: low on him. I think he's a good bounce back candidate,

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Speaker 2: has had success here, has a relatively good draw coin

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Speaker 2: flip matches with Rude. Maybe a slight underdog to Fritz,

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Speaker 2: But do you think he rolls past Murray in the

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Speaker 2: first round. Two? So those are my two favorite bets here.

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Speaker 2: You guys both like Garcia, Avery, what do you have

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Speaker 2: so far?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Nori just about my favorite play to win that quarter.

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Speaker 3: Fritz to win his quarter as well. Medvedev I'm really

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Speaker 3: liking as well. At that price, I think he's going

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Speaker 3: to be really dangerous. Garcia, like you noted, I think

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Speaker 3: is a great price. I think Danielle Collins at twenty

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Speaker 3: five to one or even better is an awesome look

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Speaker 3: as well. Novak, I tell myself every year that I

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Speaker 3: can't do it at minus one ten, minus one, twenty eight,

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Speaker 3: and every single year he drops one or two sets,

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Speaker 3: maybe has a tough match, and I'll regret this, but.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to do it, Avery, and I did

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Speaker 1: agree a lot.

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Speaker 4: I love the Norri plus six hundred, I love the

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Speaker 4: Fritz plus two seventy five.

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Speaker 1: I would take Djokovic to win it.

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Speaker 4: I just think there's enough things going for him, especially

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Speaker 4: because I do think that quarter has the potential to

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Speaker 4: really blow up in his favor and I could see him,

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Speaker 4: you know, playing Andre Rublev in the in the quarterfinals

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Speaker 4: and Fritz and the Semis. I mean, the path that

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Speaker 4: I have drawn out for Novak is really really favorable.

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Speaker 4: I mean even up to the final, where you know,

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Speaker 4: I think if tis Pas and Medvedev play, I actually

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Speaker 4: like Steph and that's a guy Novak has beaten nine

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Speaker 4: times in a row. Like the way I filled out

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Speaker 4: my draw, it is a breeze for Novak.

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Speaker 2: I know. We're very excited to be nocturnal for the

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Speaker 2: next two weeks as we alter our sleep schedules and

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Speaker 2: get ready for tennis overnight into the wee hours. The

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Speaker 2: biggest thing hanging over this tournament I think has to

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Speaker 2: be the absence of Carlos Akaraz won't be able to

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Speaker 2: defend his title in New York. He will not be

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Speaker 2: able to go for the back to back slams. He

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Speaker 2: picked up a leg injury that leaves Novak Djokovic as

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Speaker 2: the clear favorite right now at Fando Sportsbook minus one

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Speaker 2: ten to win the Aussie Open. He was not able

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Speaker 2: to play last year. Because of the whole vaccine saga

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Speaker 2: that went down. He is playing this year. He is

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Speaker 2: the fifth seed. He got a pretty favorable draw. We'll

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Speaker 2: start with Gil. When you're looking at this draw, is

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Speaker 2: it Novak or does the field have any real chance

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Speaker 2: of pulling it off in the best of five?

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Speaker 1: It's pretty much Novak.

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Speaker 4: And first of all, great to be on these Action

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Speaker 4: Network airwaves where I interned in in twenty eighteen, and

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Speaker 4: I've always just really wanted to be on a podcast

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Speaker 4: with Tina.

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Speaker 2: Tina Woo pig Suy.

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Speaker 4: Novak's won five out of his last six events. He's

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Speaker 4: won the Australian Open nine times. He's fresh coming into

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Speaker 4: this twenty twenty three season. That's kind of the silver

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Speaker 4: lining for how much time Djokovic missed last years. He's

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Speaker 4: kind of in that perfect happy medium of he played

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Speaker 4: that indoor hardcourt season. He's gotten in plenty of matches,

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Speaker 4: so he's match tough. But also he is by no

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Speaker 4: means or by any stretch, worn down, which I know

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Speaker 4: it's usually the case for the Australian Open, but sometimes

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Speaker 4: for these top players it actually can be tough. The

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Speaker 4: offseason is like three weeks, especially if you're playing Davis Cup.

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Speaker 4: Then you look at the draw and it's another check

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Speaker 4: in the box for Djokovic, at least how I have

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Speaker 4: it playing out. So yeah, it's really hard to see

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Speaker 4: any room for Djokovic skepticism unless you're really worried about

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Speaker 4: the hamstring.

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Speaker 2: And that's the thing I want to pose to Avery,

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Speaker 2: because we did see that he ended his practice session

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Speaker 2: short on Wednesday. Are you concerned at all about the

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Speaker 2: leg injury? We've seen Novak feign some injuries win this

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Speaker 2: tournament despite battling injuries. Are you any concern? Does that

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Speaker 2: stop you from betting Novak? Are you going to wait

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Speaker 2: and see how he looks the first couple rounds? How

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Speaker 2: are you playing the outrights in this tournament knowing we

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Speaker 2: have such a huge favor I.

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Speaker 3: Think Gil kind of had the nail on the head.

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Speaker 3: It's hard to be too concerned about Djokovic, especially considering

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Speaker 3: how strong he is at this event. I think I

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Speaker 3: don't have much concern over that hamstring injury either. Took

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Speaker 3: the mto against Medvedev in the semifinals last week, came back,

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Speaker 3: had no issue, won that match in straight sets, went

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Speaker 3: on to be quarda in a super physical battle. So

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Speaker 3: my concern level is very low for that, and you

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Speaker 3: consider just how dominant Jokovic is at this tournament and

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Speaker 3: against a field that Frankly, I don't think he'd be

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Speaker 3: much shorter or much longer. Honestly, even if Alcarez was

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Speaker 3: in the field, I think you'd probably see him maybe

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Speaker 3: plus one ten, plus one twenty, but not much more

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Speaker 3: beyond that. So considering all of that, I don't think

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Speaker 3: maybe as a tough match round four against Krinia Busta,

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Speaker 3: who's not in the best of form either against then

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Speaker 3: until then you know these aren't players are going to

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Speaker 3: give Hi much an issue. So unless the hamstring really

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Speaker 3: is a big problem, which I don't really think it

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Speaker 3: is based on everything that he said, you really don't

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Speaker 3: need to be too concerned about Djokovic at least until

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Speaker 3: the quarterfinals.

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Speaker 2: I did bet Novak minus one ten. As soon as

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Speaker 2: the draw came out. I looked at it and I'm like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's all Medvedev, ctpos, all on the opposite side of

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Speaker 2: the draw, some other land mines, you know, some notable

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Speaker 2: names in his quarter for sure with Kirios, and we'll

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Speaker 2: get into that in a minute, but I'm rolling with

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Speaker 2: the chalk and I took some novack minus one ten.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't blame. I mean a couple of things

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Speaker 4: to note. First of all, he tore his oblique two

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Speaker 4: years ago and still won the event. This is definitely

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Speaker 4: less serious than that.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 4: I'm not saying, you know, you feel good as a

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Speaker 4: better if something like that happens. But also the key

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Speaker 4: is he's out there playing like like Avery said, he

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Speaker 4: played that Adelaide final. He is out there playing one

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Speaker 4: set at practice with Medvedev like this seems like something

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Speaker 4: he's feeling slightly, but it's going to totally go away.

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Speaker 4: It offers a little bit of intrigue just for that

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Speaker 4: first round match against Roberto Carbias Bayina. You just want

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Speaker 4: to see what he looks like. I bet it goes

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Speaker 4: away after that.

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Speaker 2: All right, we'll get into the quarters now, because I

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Speaker 2: think the best way to attack this tournament is looking

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Speaker 2: into the other markets. When you have such a huge favorite,

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Speaker 2: you can have your long shots. You know you're forty

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Speaker 2: to fifty to one. Somebody will convince you to take

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Speaker 2: Matteo Bertini or Sebastian Quarda off a recent form or whatnot.

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Speaker 2: But I want to look into the quarters. I think

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Speaker 2: it's the more interesting way to bet this because it

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Speaker 2: is just so hard to cast these big long shots

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Speaker 2: in these majors. And we start in the first quarter

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Speaker 2: the number one overall, see the defending champion, and he's

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Speaker 2: not even the favorite to win his own quarter. He's

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Speaker 2: plus two seventy five to win this quarter. And he

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Speaker 2: got an absolute bear of a draw. Rafie on Nadal.

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Speaker 2: Did he gets Jack Draper in the first round, He

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Speaker 2: has met in the quarter, he has quarter in the quarter.

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Speaker 2: It's a really difficult draw for Nadal. Avery where are

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Speaker 2: your initial takeaways and is there anybody you're eyeing to

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Speaker 2: win this quarter? And how do you assess Nadal's for

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Speaker 2: him coming in a.

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Speaker 3: Tough spot for Nadal to say the least, I don't

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Speaker 3: know when the last time we came into a Grand

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Speaker 3: Slam first round and Nadal is already down to minus

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Speaker 3: one ten. I think that's absolutely crazy, And I think

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Speaker 3: beyond that, it doesn't get much easier. With Brandon Nakashima,

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Speaker 3: that's not going to be an easy test, especially considering

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Speaker 3: how much he struggled over recent months coming into the season.

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Speaker 3: I think it was six of seven that he's now

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Speaker 3: lost and I don't know how much faith maybe you

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Speaker 3: want to put into that United Cup. But at the

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Speaker 3: same time, he really struggled from my head, which is

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Speaker 3: for someone that's a seriously good front runner, a big

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Speaker 3: question mark. The confidence is really low. I think for Rafa,

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Speaker 3: you come into a major, and you come into a

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Speaker 3: best of five situation, it's it's hard to maybe doubt Rafa.

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Speaker 3: But I think at any point in the last five

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Speaker 3: to ten years, everythince he's been dealing with with injury issues.

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Speaker 3: Beyond that, I think this is where his confidence has

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Speaker 3: perhaps been the lowest, and I think it's going to

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Speaker 3: be a very uphill battle for him. I think Draper

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Speaker 3: is going to be a maybe a good opportunity for him,

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Speaker 3: because if you can beat Draper and really establish a

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Speaker 3: little bit of form on the front foot, perhaps will

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Speaker 3: be in a good spot there. But in terms of

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Speaker 3: outrights and quarter prices, and I don't think it can even

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Speaker 3: come close to touching Rafa. I mean, this is a

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Speaker 3: stacked quarter. I think it's going to be tough for Rafa.

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Speaker 3: I don't think you can be betting him. Perhaps he

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Speaker 3: can't count him out, but it's really hard to bet

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Speaker 3: him at ten to one or anything in that range.

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Speaker 2: We're not going to do too much round one discussion

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Speaker 2: here because we want to kind of just do a

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Speaker 2: bigger picture. But you can't not talk about Nadal and

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Speaker 2: Draper gil Nadal likes to play his way into these tournaments.

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Speaker 2: He likes to kind of find his form early. How

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Speaker 2: live is Jack Draper to beat him? I mean the

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Speaker 2: FANDU will open to plus three ten. It's down to

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Speaker 2: plus one seventy as we're recording this now, puts him

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Speaker 2: right around thirty six percent to win. I mean, how

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Speaker 2: live is Jack Draper in this first round matchup? I

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Speaker 2: know you have it early early round popcorn for sure.

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Speaker 1: For sure.

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Speaker 4: I mean that's that's probably about right where it is now.

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Speaker 4: It opened with great value on Draper, and and we've

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Speaker 4: seen that get bet down.

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Speaker 1: I think for good reason.

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Speaker 4: At the end of the day, though, I do see

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Speaker 4: Nadal just getting into a war and probably coming through.

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Speaker 4: I have really liked how Draper has responded to these situations.

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Speaker 4: Center court at Wimbledon a couple of years ago against

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Speaker 4: Novak Djokovic, he won the first set. I thought that

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Speaker 4: he would be basically pooping his pants for that first

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Speaker 4: round matchup, and he actually showed up. He's got big

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Speaker 4: wins over Felix at the US Open last year, he.

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Speaker 1: Beat Cisipas in Canada.

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Speaker 4: So Draper, you know, he's a he's a gamer and

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Speaker 4: he's a baller in these kinds of matches. But this

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Speaker 4: is kind of one step up. Now there's kind of

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Speaker 4: expectation on him in rod Labor Arena, it's probably going

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Speaker 4: to be a night match. I really like the forehand

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Speaker 4: to fourhand matchup for Nadal. I just think Rafa's has

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Speaker 4: gets more bite and penetration, more potency, and Draper is

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Speaker 4: still a little bit spinny on that foehand side. He

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Speaker 4: needs to get better at flattening it out. But it's

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Speaker 4: mostly the intangibles where I think I like Nadal to

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Speaker 4: figure it out. His form wasn't that bad at the

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Speaker 4: United Cup. He lost to demon Or and he lost

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Speaker 4: to camer Noriri, but the form was all right. If

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Speaker 4: he can just serve better than he did in those matches,

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Speaker 4: I do think he finds a way. But I also

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Speaker 4: agree with Avery. It's such a gauntlet match after match

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Speaker 4: after match that you can't you can't back him here.

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Speaker 2: I'll be looking for some Draper first set. Had some

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Speaker 2: fun with that last year. You know, Rafa was kind

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Speaker 2: of pulling a Djokovic where he was easing his way

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Speaker 2: into some of those matches and the famous Fanini rinky

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Speaker 2: hijikata and then ultimately Tiafo taking him down in New York.

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Speaker 2: I think that there is you know, as Djokovic and

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Speaker 2: Adal get to these points in their careers, they are

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Speaker 2: very much managing and you can kind of find value

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Speaker 2: betting against the maybe early in matches where you know

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Speaker 2: the guy is not gonna be able to close the deal,

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Speaker 2: and that would be the concern with Draper. Let's move

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Speaker 2: on to quarter two. This is where it gets really interesting.

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Speaker 2: I think this is the most interesting quarter in terms

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Speaker 2: of there there's a somebody I'm just not a believer

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Speaker 2: in as the favorite, So maybe I'm a little biased,

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Speaker 2: but Stefano citipas the favorite in quarter two. How much

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Speaker 2: are we buying his recent form Gill? How much are

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Speaker 2: we selling him as a you know, going deep into

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Speaker 2: majors where he's really struggled off of in non clay

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Speaker 2: majors for the last you know, year and year and

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Speaker 2: a half. And what do you make you know, what

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Speaker 2: are your biggest takeaways from quarter two here?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, look Titipas, he looks good. The approach

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Speaker 4: on the backhand return, which has been a problem for

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Speaker 4: him to me, has has looked better. And he actually

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Speaker 4: does play really well in Australia historically. I mean he's

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Speaker 4: made three semi finals here. He's not known as a

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Speaker 4: like a fast court player necessarily, but this is just

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Speaker 4: an event that's treated him well. The one time he

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Speaker 4: lost in the third round it was to Milos Raunich,

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Speaker 4: who brings a big served the table, which Cetipas generally

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Speaker 4: struggles with. I hate this Quenty Alise matchup for Ttipas

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Speaker 4: in the first round, but after that I actually kind

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Speaker 4: of favor him to get through. That said, I don't

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Speaker 4: love the number. The number I like here is cam Norri,

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Speaker 4: who's plus six hundred and I don't understand really why,

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Speaker 4: because he's phenomenal so far. He's four and oh he's

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Speaker 4: probably gonna win Auckland. I'm not worried about fatigue because

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Speaker 4: cam Norri has never gotten tired in his career. And

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Speaker 4: you know you're looking at Yanick Sinner, who has an

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Speaker 4: injury concern coming in Massetti Shoritch, and I mean Felix

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Speaker 4: is the interesting one. Felix outdoors is just he hasn't

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Speaker 4: been the same in his career thus far. So I

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Speaker 4: know that nobody wants to bet Nori because it's no

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Speaker 4: fun and people think his game is ugly, But I

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Speaker 4: think that's the play here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, another quarter, another time I'm aligned with Gill. Here.

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Speaker 3: I started laughing because I kind of knew where he

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Speaker 3: was going without straight away. And maybe there's an a

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Speaker 3: dodge in sports betting that perhaps if it seems too easy,

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Speaker 3: maybe it is too easy, if it's too good to

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Speaker 3: be true, maybe it is too good to be true,

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Speaker 3: And maybe that's the case with Nori. But I was

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Speaker 3: not a big Norri believer. I know you disagree with

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Speaker 3: me on this one, Anthony, I was not a big

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Speaker 3: Norri believer. By about twenty twenty one, I quickly realized

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Speaker 3: that I was very wrong about Cameron Norri, a guy

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Speaker 3: that came in kind of with the pushing style when

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Speaker 3: he came into the game, a very defensive lack of aggression.

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Speaker 3: But by the time he's getting to Indian Wells and

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Speaker 3: winning the tournament, it's a real turning point in his career,

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Speaker 3: and last year he really broke out. And honestly, I've

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Speaker 3: been so impressed with him so far this year as well.

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Speaker 3: I think you're seeing so much more aggression on that forehand,

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Speaker 3: I think you're seeing even bigger serve. I think he's

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Speaker 3: going to be a serious problem on tour this year.

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Speaker 3: He's an all court player and these conditions are going

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Speaker 3: to be just fine for him. Like Gil said, Felix

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Speaker 3: is a good question here. He was unbelievable in Australia

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Speaker 3: last year. He even had a match pointing it's meditative,

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Speaker 3: which maybe makes him just about close to the favorite

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Speaker 3: for the tournament at that point. Perhaps not with Roefis

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Speaker 3: still in it, but he would have been either him

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Speaker 3: or Rafa. And I think at six to one you're

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Speaker 3: getting an unbelievable price on Nori. You get about half

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Speaker 3: that with Felix, and to me, that's crazy. Like Gil said,

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Speaker 3: and just like you, I'm not a believer in stuff.

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Speaker 3: I know he did well last year, he reached the Semis,

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Speaker 3: but anytime you put him on a fast court, I

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Speaker 3: think it's a good good spot to fade stuff.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't have anything here because I don't like

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Speaker 2: any of these players. I would love center, but like

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Speaker 2: you guys mentioned, the injuries, the form are not quite there,

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Speaker 2: and I'm just never gonna I call him scam Nori.

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Speaker 2: Maybe I'll be wrong, and I'll keep being wrong. He

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Speaker 2: did have a good twenty twenty two, I can't deny that,

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Speaker 2: but I will not be hopping on the Nori train.

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Speaker 2: I'll be sitting this quarter out myself. But I think

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Speaker 2: the interesting thing is we talk about the depth. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you go down the odds board in this quarter compared

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Speaker 2: to the one we were just talking about, And the

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Speaker 2: sixth guy on the list is Bodic van Deizanskult, which

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Speaker 2: we all like as a player. He's fine, but like

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Speaker 2: there's no ceiling there right, Like I think that's kind

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Speaker 2: of the point, you know, Greek spores is down there,

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Speaker 2: Musetti Vavrinka, the corpse of Rinka making a comeback. Like

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Speaker 2: the depth in this quarter is just so much weaker

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Speaker 2: than the other quarter that I think it's hard to,

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Speaker 2: you know, find the long shot who's about to make

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Speaker 2: a big run in this one too, So I think

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Speaker 2: ultimately it's chopped. But ultimately Nori and Felix on a

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Speaker 2: collision course for the round of sixteen. That will be

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Speaker 2: a fascinating matchup for sure. Let's move into quarter three.

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Speaker 2: I think this one another you know, kind of difficult

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Speaker 2: quarter to Handicapchus because there's a dominant favorite. But we

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Speaker 2: can we can dive in a little bit more here,

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Speaker 2: I think into the weeds of the quarter because there

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Speaker 2: are some very interesting matchups starting. This is Novak Djokovic's quarter.

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Speaker 2: He's the top seed. He's got Andre Rublev in the group.

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Speaker 2: What do we make of rube Lev and team in

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Speaker 2: round one, which, after Nadal Draper is probably the second

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Speaker 2: most exciting matchup of the first round.

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Speaker 4: Ruby Lev tends to play Team really well. They played

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Speaker 4: in I think it was heone last year and ruby

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Speaker 4: Lev played at a really really high level in that match.

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Speaker 4: You know, he's just able to take time away and

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Speaker 4: kind of suffocate Team on the backhand and push him back,

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Speaker 4: and like, you know, you got to kind of take

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Speaker 4: Team for what he is right now, which which is sad,

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Speaker 4: like we all want him to be better. I would

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Speaker 4: ignore all of the exhibition results that he's put in,

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Speaker 4: which have all been positive. You know, the one competitive

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Speaker 4: match he's played this year Sun Wu Kwan beat him

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Speaker 4: six four to six to one. Look the forehand until

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Speaker 4: it is a top ten forehand in the world. Again,

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Speaker 4: Dominic team is just another player and rube Lev hasn't

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Speaker 4: been great this year thus far, but I still think

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Speaker 4: it's it's Andre in this matchup.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm in agreement there. I think Rublo has won

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Speaker 3: four in a row. Now. I think he likes these conditions.

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Speaker 3: He likes fast courts obviously, and for team, like you said,

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Speaker 3: Gil did well in ku Yong and I forget which

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Speaker 3: Middle Eastern country he participated in the exhibition in December,

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Speaker 3: but he did well there as well. But so did

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Speaker 3: Alexander Zverev, who came into the United Cup and then

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Speaker 3: got absolutely bow raced by Yuri Lechka. So there's not

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Speaker 3: too much too much that you can put into that.

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Speaker 3: And I think even though team fought through twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: two and really at the end found his stride, he

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Speaker 3: almost got to the final, and Antwerp he did really well.

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Speaker 3: In Gihan, he got some good results, but at the

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Speaker 3: same time, when you put him up against top tier

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Speaker 3: competition last year, he really wasn't able to find a

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Speaker 3: big win, and so the confidence not only is still

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Speaker 3: going to be low in that point, I just don't

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Speaker 3: think his game is at the level that it really

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Speaker 3: once was. I think Rubylev's minus three hundred right now,

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Speaker 3: you could probably look at him on the spread, and

385
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Speaker 3: I think he probably have some good value on that.

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Speaker 2: What do we make of Rublev's jaw beyond that? Because

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Speaker 2: we all know that he has been you know, it's

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Speaker 2: always the matter of whether you can keep his head

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Speaker 2: or not deep into these slants. But I think it's

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Speaker 2: a pretty favorable draw once you get beyond team m

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Speaker 2: O RESERVOREI potentially in round two, bad boy Dan Evans,

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Speaker 2: potentially in round three. It wouldn't be until the fourth

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Speaker 2: round where you know he would potentially see Holgaruna or

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Speaker 2: the man Nikirios. But what do we make of the

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Speaker 2: rube Lev draw? And is he undervalued at fourteen to

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Speaker 2: one to win this quarter? Like I mean, ob my

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Speaker 2: answer is tough because of Djokovic, but it's.

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Speaker 3: It's probably not. I don't think he's under undervalued at all.

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Speaker 3: I think he actually has a really tough draw. We

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Speaker 3: maybe wed perhaps we disagree on this, but Russavori took

401
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Speaker 3: Felix the five sets, last year in Australia when Felix

402
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Speaker 3: was in a really good form, Dan Evans beat him

403
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Speaker 3: at the City Open. He has historically given a lot

404
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Speaker 3: of trouble. I think it was also the Western and

405
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Speaker 3: Southern when that was played in New York, where Evans

406
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Speaker 3: beat ruby Lev. That's not an easy matchup at all,

407
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Speaker 3: and I think you can pretty much count on Evan's

408
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Speaker 3: getting to the third round. He's got Forkuno Bagness in

409
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Speaker 3: the first round and then the winner of Galan and Chardie,

410
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Speaker 3: so I think you can pretty much book him there,

411
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Speaker 3: and then he's got to deal with players like Nick

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Speaker 3: or Holgarun and at that point you're pretty much dealing

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Speaker 3: with toss ups. I don't think you have Rublev undervalued

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Speaker 3: at all. And even if he gets through all of that,

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Speaker 3: he's got no back most likely.

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Speaker 4: I actually I agree with you that Dan Evans is

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00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 4: a bad matchup, and I like Emil Rusavori, but he

418
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Speaker 4: just hasn't done as much as as I kind of

419
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Speaker 4: thought he would in the especially in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 4: The head to head with Evans is four to four,

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Speaker 4: so that match tends to be a toss up, and

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Speaker 4: it's because of some tactical stuff with Evans's backhand slice

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Speaker 4: to rube Lev's backhand, which is pretty difficult for Andre.

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Speaker 4: But the thing is, I don't really trust Curios or

425
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Speaker 4: Runa as much as I trust rube Lev, and that's

426
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Speaker 4: why I could see him getting to this quarter final. Obviously,

427
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Speaker 4: Runa or Curios, you know they're going to take out

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Speaker 4: each other, so it's going to end up most definitely

429
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:46,160
Speaker 4: being only only one of them. But for a multitude

430
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 4: of reasons, Like you look at Hole Garuna, who's nineteen

431
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,399
Speaker 4: years old coming into a major with huge expectation for

432
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,120
Speaker 4: the first time in his career, and he hasn't won

433
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,560
Speaker 4: a match in months because he doesn't have any momentum

434
00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 4: in the build up. I think that's a bad combination.

435
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 4: Nick Kurios has been injured. I don't know what his

436
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 4: training has looked like the last two weeks, but he

437
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 4: doesn't have any match play. He also has the most

438
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 4: pressure he's ever had coming into a major event, which frankly,

439
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 4: sometimes the stress he doesn't handle it very well. And

440
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,119
Speaker 4: then you have the Netflix stock, which I think is

441
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 4: a big deal for Nick and a huge distraction for

442
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,479
Speaker 4: Nick because it matters to him immensely. So all of

443
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:26,440
Speaker 4: these things are red flags for Nick Kurios Runa, you know,

444
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 4: has some I have some doubts there as well. So

445
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,920
Speaker 4: I kind of land on rube Lev to probably get

446
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 4: to Novak in that quarter final. That's the thing ruby Lev,

447
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 4: We've seen this time and time again. He gets to

448
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 4: these big quarter finals against top guns. He does not

449
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 4: compete in those matches.

450
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've all seen the meltdowns, the beatdowns against Medvedev

451
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 2: and the other struggles that he's had. It's just, you know,

452
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 2: the bottom half of the draw, you look at it.

453
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 2: I'll be on Mannarino against Isner for sure. Zizu Bergs

454
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 2: is live maybe to surprise some people in the bottom

455
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 2: half win a match qualifier. We love zizu but I

456
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 2: think when you look at the bottom half of the draw,

457
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 2: like Novak has to be pretty happy with this. I mean,

458
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 2: do you give Dimitrov any chance? Like, is there any

459
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 2: real hiccup for Novak between the first round and you know,

460
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,480
Speaker 2: in theory a quarterfinal against Kyrios, if Kurios is really

461
00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 2: playing well, it could could be maybe a problem.

462
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 4: Novak is so happy, there's there's no weapons here, Like

463
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 4: these are quick conditions We've seen Djokovic routinely win like

464
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 4: eighty five percent first surf points. He's turned into a

465
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 4: really good surf plus one player, and you're looking at

466
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 4: Karna Busta and Demonor and Dimitrov, like none of these

467
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:46,920
Speaker 4: guys can hang with the serf plus one prowess of Novak.

468
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's gonna be tough for anyone to get

469
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 3: to Novak. I guess, if anything, because Evans has such

470
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 3: an easy first two rounds. If I if you have

471
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 3: to find quarter value, I see Evans at forty five

472
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 3: to one. That's probably what I would go with. He's

473
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 3: also beaten Novak before, so perhaps there's a little bit

474
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,360
Speaker 3: of confidence. But the same time, that was in Monte

475
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 3: Carlo on clay. This is the best possible conditions you

476
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,479
Speaker 3: could you can give Novak, so it's gonna be tough

477
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 3: for anyone to take it off of him. There's a

478
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 3: reason why he's minus three hundred.

479
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,360
Speaker 2: All right. So that's the boring quarter, although it's never

480
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 2: boring when Nick Curios is involved, and I'm very excited

481
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,199
Speaker 2: to see how he handles the pressure and the expectations.

482
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,119
Speaker 2: Like you mentioned, Gil, we're going to go into the

483
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 2: fourth quarter, Now, this one is also pretty open. I mean,

484
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 2: Taylor Fritz has to be decently happy with his draw

485
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 2: the way it ended up for him. But as we

486
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 2: look at the board here in this quarter, we've got

487
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 2: Taylor Fritz who's plus three hundred plus though seventy five,

488
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:44,239
Speaker 2: Casper Rud who is the number two seed plus four

489
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 2: twenty five, Mateo Barrettini plus five point fifty, Sasha saverev

490
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: in this quarter, Roberto Bautista agot. Then you have other guys,

491
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 2: some Americans Brooks, b Paul and Tanasi Coconacus at sixteen

492
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 2: to one. Not not exactly buying him. But what do

493
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 2: we make of this quarter? What matches will be excited for?

494
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 2: And what are we betting. We'll start with Avery here.

495
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 2: I'm fascinated. I have a bet in this one that

496
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,080
Speaker 2: I'm going to regret immediately.

497
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, for me, this is the most wide open quarter.

498
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,679
Speaker 3: This is perhaps the most exciting quarter in terms of

499
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 3: just about anyone can take it. The favorite is Fritz

500
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 3: at three to one. I think he's probably that's a

501
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 3: good price to take Fritz out. I think he's coming

502
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 3: in with great form. You love how he's playing right now.

503
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,360
Speaker 3: He's got some confidence coming into it, and he's also

504
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 3: going to be looking to avenge that brutal first round

505
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,959
Speaker 3: loss to Brandon Holt at the US Open. But at

506
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 3: the same time, there's so many names that could really

507
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 3: excel here. Rud's gonna be an interesting question. I really

508
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 3: don't have a lot of faith in Rude to back

509
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 3: up what he did last year. He still hasn't won

510
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 3: a tournament above the two to fifty level. I still

511
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,199
Speaker 3: think he's lacking that real killer instinct and that ability

512
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,120
Speaker 3: to perform at the highest of high levels.

513
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 2: Even though he.

514
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 3: Kind of fored me a little bit wrong at the

515
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 3: US Open when push came to Shelby really wasn't able

516
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 3: to get it done. You have a members Mateo Barrettini,

517
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: who was coming in with better form than he ended

518
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 3: last year with. I wouldn't even come close to touching

519
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 3: alexanders Verev right now because I just don't think he

520
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 3: has the fitness nor the confidence right now. In terms

521
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 3: of mashups, I'm super excited about second round Rude versus Brooksby.

522
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 3: That one is really exciting for me. I think Brooksby

523
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 3: can cause a lot of problems. I'm not sure how

524
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 3: that one's going to be priced. But but I'm really

525
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,400
Speaker 3: excited for that one. I would really really be ready

526
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 3: to get behind Brooksby at anything about three to one

527
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 3: or better.

528
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 2: Gil. The Zverev question is a fascinating one because the

529
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 2: draw is not bad. But what do I mean, what

530
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,239
Speaker 2: can we really expect from him in the situation at

531
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 2: the tournament.

532
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 4: Here's a guy who's had fragile confidence even when he's

533
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:39,640
Speaker 4: been fully healthy. Uh, and now he's come off injury.

534
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 4: His second serve has looked really bad. He has to

535
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 4: play best to five here, which you know, the body

536
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 4: is you know, it could be kind of a shock

537
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 4: to the body when when you haven't been on court

538
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 4: as much. So I'm kind of with Avery. I don't

539
00:24:54,080 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 4: touch Zverev, and I wouldn't be stunned if if we see,

540
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 4: you know, Sasha not really become a factor until around

541
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 4: Rule Angero's time, Like it might take him about through

542
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:11,920
Speaker 4: March for him to really get going. So yeah, i'd

543
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 4: be off of Fritz. And I'm also with Avery on sorry,

544
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 4: off of Zverev. I'm with Avery on Fritz. I think

545
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 4: the books got this right. I actually expected Rude to

546
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 4: be the favorite, but you know, not that I thought

547
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 4: he should be, but no, it's Taylor, Fritz. I think

548
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 4: that's that's correct. He's looking at a really good eighth

549
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 4: where yes, you have Zverev. There's a lot of reason

550
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 4: not to be confident in him. Schwartzman I'd be surprised

551
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 4: if he got to the third round. Katzmanovich after March

552
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 4: last year just hasn't looked threatening to top ten players.

553
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 4: These courts are quick, which you know, Fritz, Actually there's

554
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 4: some things to like about his game on kind of

555
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,880
Speaker 4: all speeded hard courts. But I think with the sir

556
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,920
Speaker 4: and the aggression, the precision on the back end, and

557
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 4: just the level he's brought for a long time, you know,

558
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 4: the last year plus really starting at the end of

559
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 4: twenty twenty one, it's legit. And by the way, he's

560
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 4: never lost to Mateo Barrettini and Casper Rude. The two

561
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 4: matches that I've seen from him Thiago Montero and against

562
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 4: Barattine at United Cup, I couldn't stand the way he

563
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 4: was playing way too defensive from a court position standpoint,

564
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 4: The return tactics were not there and he was getting bullied.

565
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 4: So I'm not high on Rude coming in as the

566
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 4: number two seed with a chance to get to world

567
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 4: number one will be fading that we.

568
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 2: Talked about Rude and he housed Barattini at the US Open.

569
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 2: I thought that was a very disappointing showing from Mateo

570
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 2: in New York these courts. Is it playing faster than

571
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 2: the New York is it playing slower? How does that

572
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 2: impact a potential clash between those two again, because we

573
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 2: did just see them, Baraccini got some revenge. What can

574
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 2: we expect in a potential third match up here, which

575
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 2: it seems pretty likely that they're on a collision course

576
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 2: for one another unless Avery's Brooksby comes through in the

577
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 2: second round.

578
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think it's more about form. Barattini just

579
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 4: couldn't get going last year and didn't really look like

580
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 4: himself at at any point because it was such a

581
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 4: stop start season from all of the injuries that he had,

582
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 4: And you know, Rude came into that match kind of

583
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 4: the underdog and he played the best match of his career. Like,

584
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 4: straight up, I feel like we would have some mean

585
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,399
Speaker 4: regression here where like Barrettini should have the edge on

586
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 4: a really fast court in this head to head, and

587
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 4: you know, he just didn't have it that one day

588
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,400
Speaker 4: at the US Open. I think if they play again,

589
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 4: it'll go back to that. To your question on the

590
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 4: court speed, the US Open and Australia are both just

591
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 4: fast now. The dunlop balls that are played with at

592
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 4: the Aussie I think that's the biggest factor for why

593
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 4: we see so much we see quick conditions, whereas the

594
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 4: US Open it's the court surface and you know, doesn't

595
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 4: matter the court the balls. Reality is good servers aggression.

596
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 4: It's really rewarded now at both hardcourt slams, where for

597
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 4: a long period of time the US Open was really

598
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 4: really slow, It's not like that anymore.

599
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 2: Avery should I be worried about Robbie Batts. If I

600
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 2: was thinking about betting Baratini to win this quarter.

601
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 3: I would not be too concerned about Bautista Goot. I

602
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 3: think there's very specific core conditions where you really love

603
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,719
Speaker 3: you really love Bautista Goot and it really shows up,

604
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 3: let's say, in Doha, places like that where you have

605
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 3: the medium fast courts, I would not be too concerned

606
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 3: about him here. I know he's had some success on

607
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,120
Speaker 3: tong courts like these, even at Wimbledon as well, but

608
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 3: I don't think he comes in with serious form. I

609
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 3: don't think he has the game that's really going to

610
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 3: trouble someone that has these huge serves players like Barattini

611
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 3: that can get so many free points, I wouldn't be

612
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 3: He's going to be a lot of a non factor

613
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 3: for me. At the same time, he's one of the

614
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: most consistent players you'll ever see. We heard Casper Rude saying,

615
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 3: you know a month or two ago that he looked

616
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 3: up brought a Batista a goot, which is one of

617
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 3: the funnier things I've heard in a while. Even though

618
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 3: you know that's a consummate professional, I think you see

619
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 3: a lot of similarity in how they kind of look

620
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 3: at the game and how they attack the game. In

621
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 3: terms of as Gil said, I think very defensive, very

622
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 3: neutral a lot of the time, extending rallies, being very

623
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 3: comfortable with that. And I think that also is why

624
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 3: on that Barattini versus Rude note why an inform Baratini

625
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 3: is really dangerous to Rude. If Rude tries to get

626
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 3: defensive and play conservatively on these faster courts, I think

627
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 3: Baratino will be able to really take advantage of points,

628
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 3: get ahead, get that first ball, so many free points,

629
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: and it's gonna be a big problem for Rude. I think,

630
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 3: as we saw New York, you will not see a

631
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 3: lot of fun backhand rallies. But I still think that's

632
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 3: an edgetimate tale.

633
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 2: That's it. I'm in Barattini plus five fifty for me

634
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 2: in this quarter. That's my bet. I'm riding with Mateo.

635
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 2: I think gild made a good point. You know, we

636
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 2: weren't that far. I mean, Mateo was in deep, you know,

637
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 2: in the quarterfinal, semifinals last year here, and he did

638
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 2: have a really poor second half, you feel form at

639
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 2: Wimbledon with the COVID situation. Then he was not healthy

640
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 2: for most of the second half in North America and

641
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 2: the US Open not at his best. I think this

642
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 2: is a good bye low on Barattini, who I think,

643
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 2: how much worse on a hard court is he on

644
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 2: a faster hardcourt? Is he really than Taylor Fritz? I

645
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 2: think that's my question, guilt to you. It's it's really competitive.

646
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 4: It's just that Fritz is more complete because of the

647
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 4: backhand disparity there where Barattini, people keep, you know, waiting

648
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 4: for him to like patch up that weakness.

649
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 1: It's never gonna happen. It's just he is who he

650
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: is on that backhand and.

651
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 4: Then the mobility where like Fritz usually I'm talking about

652
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 4: Fritz at a at a deficit in terms of the movement.

653
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 4: He's quicker than Matteo as well. So I think in

654
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 4: neutral baseline rallies, Fritz is a lot better. And now

655
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 4: you look at the serve where like, yeah, you take Barattini,

656
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 4: but I don't know that it quite makes up for

657
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 4: what we see in the rallies.

658
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 3: Uh.

659
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 4: And again I want to just reiterate, you know, three

660
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 4: to zero head to head for Taylor Fritz over Mateo Barrettini.

661
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 4: He just he just plays him well. He attacks that

662
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 4: backhand side extremely well.

663
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 2: So you guys are both rolling with the American Fritz

664
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 2: plus three to one to win this quarter. I'm rolling

665
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 2: with some Matteo Barrettini. So we've got some action in

666
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. Anything else on the men's jaw before

667
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 2: we briefly touch on the women's anything, you guys are

668
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 2: haven't said that you want to get out or any

669
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 2: bets recommend recommendations.

670
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 3: I think you have some thin, some thin hour right

671
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 3: value on Medvedev because for a couple of reasons. One

672
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 3: is it's not an ideal draw form, but it's not

673
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 3: the most challenging, and he's come through just about everyone

674
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 3: over the last two years except for two of two

675
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 3: of the three greatest players of all time in Nadal

676
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 3: and Djokovic in those finals. And the other big factor

677
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 3: here is the Neil Medvedev is very polarized in terms

678
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 3: of his game by a crowd absolutely despising him, or

679
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 3: him despising a crowd. We've seen that go one of

680
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 3: two ways. You could get something that you saw like

681
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 3: in the US Open, when Medvedev was inspired and it

682
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 3: almost carried him through an injury when he was beefing

683
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 3: with the crowd, or we could see something like we

684
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 3: saw in Mets where he just completely blew up when

685
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 3: he was playing La Rinca and he was getting frustrated

686
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 3: with the crowd. I think if you do get that

687
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 3: inspired version of Medvedev coming off of a final last

688
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 3: year when he was incredibly aggrieved and how the crowd

689
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 3: treated him against Nadal, probably unfairly aggrieved, but at the

690
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 3: same time nonetheless frustrated, I think you get an inspired

691
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 3: med and perhaps he's shown that he can he's one

692
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 3: of a few players that can be Novak and a

693
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 3: slam in a big slam match, so I think there

694
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 3: is some value there.

695
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 4: I have a Medvedev Ttpas semi final materializing, and you know,

696
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 4: you guys will probably disagree with me on this one,

697
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 4: but I just think the last couple times Ttpas has

698
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 4: played Danil, he's played them perfectly. Where the two things

699
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 4: that bothered Daniel net rushing and speed. Ctipas has both

700
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 4: of those things in spades, and it was just kind

701
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 4: of a matter of using those things properly, particularly the

702
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 4: net rushing where he's been mixing in serve and volley

703
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 4: and hitting approach shots on on the plus one ball

704
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 4: almost every single time. And you know this head to head,

705
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 4: which for a little while favored Medvedev early in their

706
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 4: careers when Titipas was too busy being emotional about what

707
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 4: happened in Miami. Ever since then it's kind of turned

708
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 4: for for Stefanos. So if I were to taken out

709
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 4: right outside of Djokovic, it would probably be Titipas, but

710
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 4: I might wait after that Alise match in the first

711
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 4: round because that would again I would I would have

712
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 4: a close eye on Alis. Ttipas given the way the

713
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 4: Frenchman is serving.

714
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 2: Ctipas and Mevedev met in the semifinals last year. I

715
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 2: thought Pos played a great two sets, but then I mean,

716
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 2: he just disappeared in the in the second, third, and

717
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 2: fourth set and Medvedev rolled him. And that was really Medvedev.

718
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 2: I thought the of his powers, and I think he's

719
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: just not the player that he was at that point.

720
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 2: I think it's pretty clear that whether it's the tour

721
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 2: figuring him out, or you know, Gil, You've talked about

722
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 2: this on your show, whether it's all the geopolitical stuff

723
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 2: that's gone on, the mental, you know, distraughtness of losing

724
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 2: that final when it was on his racket and he

725
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 2: was a few points away from icing. It just hasn't

726
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 2: been the same player. And so I just don't know

727
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 2: what to make of Mevedev. I'm one of the bigger

728
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 2: Medvedev guys that you'll find, but I'm probably staying away

729
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 2: from him in this tournament. If you were to get

730
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 2: ahead to head with Nadal, I would be fascinated to

731
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 2: see just that match play out. So I'm kind of

732
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 2: rooting for that to happen. But you know, we you

733
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 2: guys are mostly the experts on the men's side, but

734
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 2: we do want to touch on the women's side of

735
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 2: the draw a little bit. It's kind of similar in

736
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 2: the sense that there's like a clear number one overall,

737
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 2: but I think we're all I'm not sure what you

738
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 2: guys think, but I think EGA's clearly a little bit

739
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 2: more vulnerable at the top than Djokovic's. Of course, best

740
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: who out of three is a lot different than best

741
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 2: of five. Sabalanka has been in great form. Do you

742
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 2: have any outrights or any names to watch players you're

743
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 2: thinking about. We'll start with Gil for the one.

744
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 4: I agree with you about Ega and her draw is

745
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 4: not ideal where especially if you look at Ribakina and

746
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 4: Danielle Collins, two power players who on this fast surface

747
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 4: can just take advantage of EGA's serve just not really

748
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,320
Speaker 4: holding up its end of the bargain at all times,

749
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 4: and I think that matters in these conditions. I look

750
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 4: at Caroline Garcia probably more than anyone else, who can

751
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 4: kind of bring that aggressive style and just looked so

752
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 4: fantastic in the second half of twenty twenty two, and

753
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 4: I think what she brings to the table can similar

754
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 4: to ash Barti and some of the things she did

755
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 4: can just kind of take the tour wholly by surprise,

756
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 4: where the way she's aggressively returning second serves and serving

757
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,360
Speaker 4: so well herself, I think she's very dangerous.

758
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 1: At plus twelve hundred, yeah.

759
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 3: I mean, once again, I'm in agreement with gil. My

760
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,840
Speaker 3: number one pick on the women's side would be Garcia.

761
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 3: I mean, she just ended twenty twenty two in such

762
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 3: great form ever since. I think it was in Warsaw

763
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 3: when she beats fiontech in I'm Clay, but in her

764
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,720
Speaker 3: home country of Poland, I think the confidence just skyrocketed.

765
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 3: She had a crazy end of the year. She won

766
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 3: the Western and Southern. She parlayed that into success the

767
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 3: US Open, where you know, she really had one match

768
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 3: where she was just absolutely brutal against home Shabor, but

769
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 3: outside of that was just about perfect. Then wins the

770
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 3: WTA finals and she's really under priced here in my opinion, Ega,

771
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 3: I think we're all in agreement, is super vulnerable in

772
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:39,919
Speaker 3: these conditions. She got absolutely smashed against Jessica Pagoula last week.

773
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 3: She looked completely out of sorts, and maybe part of

774
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 3: that is the fact that she had to switch locations

775
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 3: and that definitely favored Pegoula a little bit, but when

776
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 3: you have these fast courts, it's hard to get behind

777
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 3: sion Tech. I was a bit surprised that that she

778
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 3: won the US Open last fall, but at the same time,

779
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 3: she came out of some tough situations. I think her

780
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 3: first round opponent, you'll Neiemayer, she had her in a

781
00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 3: real spot of trouble last year and that was the

782
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 3: closest she's really come to losing. I think she was

783
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 3: up a set and a break in the second set,

784
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:07,720
Speaker 3: and then after that, I think the tank just emptied

785
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 3: for Niemeyer and she kind of collapsed a bit, and

786
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,840
Speaker 3: you get to her credit, took advantage of that and

787
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 3: really took control of the tournament from there. Even though

788
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,240
Speaker 3: she struggled with Sablanca a little bit, sometimes with Pagola,

789
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 3: but for the most part she was pretty consistent. But

790
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 3: when you have those big hitters, those flat big hitters

791
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 3: that really try to take time away and control points,

792
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 3: like Niemeyer can, and they could really interesting to see

793
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:29,719
Speaker 3: what happens to sreon Tech. I think she could really

794
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 3: have some trouble and I think in the first round

795
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 3: Neemar could maybe be dangerous even at that point. And

796
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 3: I think, like Gil said, Daniel Collins, big hitter, a

797
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 3: big match player, she'll step up to the plate. I

798
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 3: would not be surprised to see her and make a

799
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 3: nice run as well.

800
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 2: One power player you mentioned briefly with Sabs coming into

801
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 2: the tournament. Sablanca in great form, seems to have figured

802
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,760
Speaker 2: out the serve. Is she consistent enough to win this slam?

803
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 2: Like I think that's the biggest question. And you mentioned Nemyr.

804
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 2: I mean, you couldn't get a four hand in the

805
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 2: court for a set and a half until she finally

806
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 2: figured it out. But does Sablanca, you know she's the

807
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 2: second favorite here, does she have any real chance skill?

808
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 2: Where do you assess her form coming in? I think

809
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,840
Speaker 2: she does have a chance. I just think everybody's onto it.

810
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 2: I don't think the price is there at plus seven

811
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 2: hundred in a wide open women's field, but you know,

812
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 2: she has the firepower where it's hard to see it

813
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 2: not coming together for her at some point. And I

814
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: just think mentally, although last year on its surface was

815
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 2: really rough because of the second serve, I feel like

816
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 2: she's become a player who actually does have some decent

817
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 2: resilience and match toughness, which she really lacked early in

818
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: her career, where she would just she would just throw

819
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: in an absolute dud. At some point, it seemed like

820
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 2: within her runs, especially at majors, I think Sabalanca will

821
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 2: get one at some point. I just don't know if

822
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 2: the price is there.

823
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm in agreement on that. I'm really not confident

824
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 3: that the price is there either. I think part of reason,

825
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 3: like you'll noted, she is actually surprisingly resilient for someone

826
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 3: that has the second serve issues. I think when you

827
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 3: see those massive second serve problems, like with players like Zvera,

828
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 3: there is a serious confidence since you but she's quite

829
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 3: aggressive on the second serve, which contributes to that, and

830
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:14,480
Speaker 3: I think that also results in her getting a lot

831
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:16,320
Speaker 3: of free points, a lot of easy first balls, and

832
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 3: that second serve points. So I don't necessarily think that's

833
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 3: the massive issue for Sablenca, But at the same time,

834
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 3: at seven to one, it's really just not there, considering

835
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,520
Speaker 3: she still does have those second serve problems, and if

836
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 3: she really has a poor match, she's definitely there for

837
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 3: the taking.

838
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 2: All right, Well, that'll just about do it for us here.

839
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,760
Speaker 2: Ozzie Open preview pod. We need to make this regular

840
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 2: thing Wimbledon. You know, we'll get together for maybe each

841
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 2: of the majors if our producer Matt Mitchell will allow it,

842
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,399
Speaker 2: which I think he will. But we thank everybody for listening.

843
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 2: Thank you to Gil Gross, thank you to Avery Zimmerman.

844
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 2: Be sure to check out Gil's stuff on his YouTube page.

845
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 2: I'm a proud member of his page and I learn

846
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,000
Speaker 2: a lot about tennis from watching him every Monday Monday

847
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 2: Match Analysis. Avery, head of our tennis content. We're going

848
00:39:58,360 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 2: to have a lot of great stuff day to day,

849
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 2: big match previews, everything you can possibly want. So if

850
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 2: you have an inability to sleep late at night and

851
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 2: you want to watch some tennis, I mean there are

852
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 2: a few great sweats like watching a five set tennis match,

853
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 2: just an emotional rollercoaster. So hope you join us, and

854
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,760
Speaker 2: thank you all for listening. This podcast has been presented

855
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,600
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