WEBVTT - Kristin Bentz on Today's Retail Numbers (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Uh, this is taking stock with Pim's Box and Kathleen

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<v Speaker 1>Hayes on Bloomberg Radio. Retail sales, the consumer, what's driving

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<v Speaker 1>uh the economy forward or not? As the case, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like in August, maybe the consumer took the

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<v Speaker 1>foot off the gas, maybe even put the brakes on

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<v Speaker 1>a bit. We're gonna find out what it means for

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<v Speaker 1>various kinds of retailers and for spending overall. We're happy

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<v Speaker 1>to welcome back to the show now Kristen Ben's. She's

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<v Speaker 1>president of Talented Blonde ll l C, a well recognized

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<v Speaker 1>retail expert, and you can follow her on Twitter at

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<v Speaker 1>the Talented Blonde Kristen. The headline retail sales of what

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<v Speaker 1>down zero point one percent? Uh? Take out autos down

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<v Speaker 1>minus point three and within that we saw weakness and

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<v Speaker 1>some key things like building materials and department stores didn't

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<v Speaker 1>look so hot. How does how do retailers look to

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<v Speaker 1>you broadly right now? Well? Not so hot as an understatement,

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<v Speaker 1>as you know. And sure Kim Alwaya on on this shortly. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, retail it's a tough spot to be in

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<v Speaker 1>right now. And what I'm seeing from these numbers is

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think the consumer is quite healthy. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I think she's healthy. I think she's spending. She's just

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<v Speaker 1>not spending in traditional areas where Wall Street wants her

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<v Speaker 1>to spend. She's not spending at department stores. Um. But

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<v Speaker 1>she's definitely spending online as we saw those non store

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<v Speaker 1>retail numbers, which is a proxy for online spending in

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<v Speaker 1>those world I believe sixteen point five percent. Correct me

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<v Speaker 1>if I'm wrong, Kristen. I want to know whether we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to have a digital Christmas, A digital Christmas. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I think now we're in this you know, kind of

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<v Speaker 1>Instagram Snapchat economy, and I think you're definitely going to

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<v Speaker 1>have a digital Christmas, especially if Amazon has anything to

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<v Speaker 1>say about that. It's all drones, man, drones. Yeah. I

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<v Speaker 1>just do want to point out that maybe the uh

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<v Speaker 1>six percent you saw was year over year, because according

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<v Speaker 1>to Mickey Leafley over at Barrenburg, there was actually a

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<v Speaker 1>zero point three percent decline in non story retail sales

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<v Speaker 1>in August and it was notable. Noticeable. Notable, he said,

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<v Speaker 1>because it was the first decline since January of twenty fifteen.

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<v Speaker 1>Non story retail sales have been growing at a solid

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<v Speaker 1>pace as people book, you know, shift over to online buying.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think at least Mickey Leavy was taking that

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<v Speaker 1>as a bit of a red flag to even see

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<v Speaker 1>online sales pull back for a month. That was your

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<v Speaker 1>and your just to clarify, Um, I'm not worried, uh

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<v Speaker 1>with with the rise of retail that we're seeing in

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<v Speaker 1>the way that people are buying, it's it's much more experiential,

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<v Speaker 1>So experiences and experience a retail rule of the day. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, if you just take a look at any

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<v Speaker 1>social media, it's less about what I'm wearing and more

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<v Speaker 1>about where I am, what I'm doing. Time is luxury

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<v Speaker 1>and how are we spending that time. And I want

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<v Speaker 1>to show the world what I'm doing with my time

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<v Speaker 1>with my family, with my friends, with my partner, etcetera.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that is the new currency is experiences.

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<v Speaker 1>I wanted to if I could get your your reaction

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<v Speaker 1>to a report from red tail Next that says that

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<v Speaker 1>digital sales are going to climb to six teament of

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<v Speaker 1>total retail sales. That's up from fourteen point four last year,

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<v Speaker 1>and that also includes in the perspective and eleven decline

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<v Speaker 1>in brick and mortar store traffic that happened in November. Absolutely.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, look what's happening with Macy's, which is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a proxy and you know I'm I'm an excellemnite, and

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<v Speaker 1>so eight years ago today, you know, we were all

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<v Speaker 1>too big to fail, right, including retail. And what people

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<v Speaker 1>don't know is that Macy's is like the top three

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<v Speaker 1>digital retailer out there. It's one of the largest internet

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<v Speaker 1>companies in the world. And if Macy's can't make that work,

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<v Speaker 1>as we've seen with some massive store closings that they're planning, um,

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<v Speaker 1>they begin an upgrade this week because of it, um,

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<v Speaker 1>that doesn't bode well for the rest of retail. So really,

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<v Speaker 1>we are obviously in that in that digital economy, and

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<v Speaker 1>I do believe we will see a digital Christmas back

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<v Speaker 1>to you. Okay, so what about the home improvement chains,

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<v Speaker 1>because they've been uh, you know, pretty popular with a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of investors, they had a not so good quarter.

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<v Speaker 1>Is this a one month affair? Is this a trend?

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<v Speaker 1>Are our people pulling back from home improvement, which has

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<v Speaker 1>been a pretty big trend for a while. I think

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<v Speaker 1>it could be cyclical. But also if we want to

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<v Speaker 1>look at companies like Airbnb and that whole trend of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, um kind of renting your experience UM not

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily hotels, but also UM in other housing. I think

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<v Speaker 1>people are going to start seeing this other revenue stream

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<v Speaker 1>UM by you know, having people come in and occupy

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<v Speaker 1>space and make money from that space, and that means

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<v Speaker 1>their home and oftentimes improving their homes. So I would

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<v Speaker 1>see that that indust ruby bony well um as opposed

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<v Speaker 1>to not what about the ups uh not a parcel

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<v Speaker 1>service rate increase that's effective December the twenty six, that day,

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<v Speaker 1>right after Christmas, US ground service daily delivery will increase

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<v Speaker 1>by about five cent uh and the freight U UPS

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<v Speaker 1>Freight announced an average of about a five percent channel

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<v Speaker 1>increase that was effect that's effective September. Well, I think

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to see that, you know, cost of doing

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<v Speaker 1>business for for lack of a better term, being passed

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<v Speaker 1>on to the consumer and there's really nothing we can

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<v Speaker 1>do about that, especially with all this sports drama. I

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<v Speaker 1>think you're going to see a spike in retail pricing

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<v Speaker 1>and definitely a spike in shipping. Is that kind of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, plays its self out within the holiday season.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to Thank you very much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>Kristen Bentz is president of Talented Blonde. They're based in Phoenix, Arizona.

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<v Speaker 1>You can follow Kristen on Twitter at Talented Blonde. This

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<v Speaker 1>is taking Stock, I'm pim Fox my co host Kathleen Hayes.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg. Yeah,