1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. You look at job growth relative 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 1: to labor for its growth. This is one of the 3 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: better recoveries we've ever seen. The FAT cannot run monastory 4 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: policy for the entire world. The FAT has to run 5 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:18,120 Speaker 1: linshire policy for the US. The last thing we need 6 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: is for the banking sector to join the other three 7 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:23,920 Speaker 1: segments that we've talked about in the path and become unhinged. 8 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance, 9 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: and investment. On Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone, Michael McKee 10 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: and Tom Keane Bloomberg Surveillance from New York. We welcome 11 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: all of you worldwide. Bloomberg twelve Boston, Bloomberg FM, Washington, 12 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: Good morning, Bloomberg eleven three oh. Here in the fridgid 13 00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 1: New York and getting colder. I guess they'll be winschill 14 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 1: and all that, and signal digit kind of weather as well. 15 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: We say good morning out on the West coast Blomberg 16 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: nine sixty the Bay Area and importantly serious and extam 17 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: Channel one, Good morning New Hampshire, and good morning South Carolina. 18 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,959 Speaker 1: Lots of talk about we'll do that polling here Uh. 19 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:04,679 Speaker 1: In a bit before I get started, John Tucker, tell 20 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 1: me the cold out. What's the level of cold in 21 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: New York? Yeah, Well, I'm you know you said, I 22 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: brought up the be Comic Index, and I'm just looking 23 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: at my natural gas costs still down about two was 24 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: hovering around two oh five. That's extraordinary and that tells 25 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 1: me I've got more a lot more money to spend 26 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: disposable income. Yeah, the heating so far this year has 27 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 1: been good. Well, maybe we'll see. We'll adjust that here, 28 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: but it sounds like it's partly February here in New York. 29 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: This morning. Blueberg Surveillance brought you by Cone Residuc Accounting 30 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: Tax Advisory. To keep your business on top of issues 31 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 1: in the evolving renewable energy market, it takes dedicated industry 32 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 1: experts like Cone Resnick. Find out more at Cone Resnick 33 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: dot com. We spell to please Cone res c O 34 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 1: H N R e z n I c K Cone 35 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: Residuc dot com. Thank you them to them, uh for 36 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: their support is well. Euro dollar one twelve sixties seven 37 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: one twelve sixty seven. So h A stronger euro yesterday 38 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: gives back a little bit yen flat one oh three 39 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 1: with a little bit of dollar weakness. It's been great 40 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 1: to talk to Bob Sinch and Mark Chandler to nuanced 41 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: wils on foreign exchange. I have been looking forward to 42 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: this discussion for something in the vicinity of six months. 43 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 1: His world, I mean, the surveillance world is always in crisis. 44 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: Frank Newport's world is in crisis. He joins us from 45 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: Gallop Pole, which is a most interesting business right now. Frank, 46 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: I love what U S News did, a very fair 47 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 1: and balanced and respectful analysis of how we poll now. 48 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: And the money quote is the science of public surveying 49 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: is in something of a crisis right now. Is Frank 50 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 1: Newport in a crisis right now? No, And I don't 51 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: believe polling is either. Um, those cassandras are kind of 52 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: making a cottage business now out there about how polling 53 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 1: is problematic. But we have faces and industry challenges before, 54 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: and we continued to face challenges now. But I think 55 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: our efforts, which is what we do for a living 56 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,679 Speaker 1: to try to estimate a public opinion, is still robust 57 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: and still still working. Well. How do you work with 58 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: cell phones? What's the new technology that used? I mean 59 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,519 Speaker 1: you worked for Gallop what was it. It was horse 60 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: and buggy and you went around to check them off 61 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: at the farm. When I absolutely there's some pictures on 62 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: our wall. When Dr George Gallup started back in the 63 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: mid nineteen thirties that they would do primary sampling units 64 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: across the country and send live humans out with clipboards 65 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: and literally go into the farmer's field and necessary to 66 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: find the person to interview and so forth in person interviewing. 67 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: When they shifted the phones in the late nineteen eighties, 68 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 1: what do you do with a cellphones? We started including 69 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 1: cell phones in our sample. We call them. We started 70 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: including them in two thousand four. Now well over half 71 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: of all of our interviews are conduct good buy cell phones, 72 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: and we just called people on their cellphones. Good. Okay, 73 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: let's move on. I want to move forward, not so 74 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: much New Hampshire and the lessons learned, but the amendment 75 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 1: and adapting to South Carolina. Let's start with Mr Sanders, 76 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 1: who I think there's not been enough studies from Vermont. 77 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 1: I believe New Hampshire's next to Vermont. How does Mr 78 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 1: Sanders play in South Carolina? What do your polls say? Well, 79 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: we have not pulled in South Carolina. We're looking more 80 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 1: particularly on Sanders, We're spending most of our time looking 81 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 1: at his issues, um, and how they's jibe with the 82 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 1: American public. Clearly, our data when we've looked at his image, 83 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,719 Speaker 1: which is very important, we do track that what do 84 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: Americans and what do Democrats think about Bernie Sanders? His 85 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:42,360 Speaker 1: clear appeal as you've seen as too young people. But 86 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 1: it's also the whites in South Carolina obviously has many 87 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: more people of color than New Hampshire, which has the 88 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,480 Speaker 1: lowest precentaven orities in one of the lowest in the nation. 89 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: So I think clearly, at least in theory, Hillary Clinton 90 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 1: has a more receptive Democratic audience in South Carolina than 91 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 1: she have had up there. And as you say, the 92 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: almost all of the western border, not all, but almost 93 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,719 Speaker 1: all the western border New Hampshire is Vermont. When I 94 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 1: when I look at and I say this, folks with 95 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: great respect for the process, is Mr Sanders a fringe 96 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: candidate or does he have the legitimacy of the articles 97 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 1: or read about Mr Trump? Well, you're asking me, is 98 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:28,719 Speaker 1: Mr Sanders a fringe candidate? Senator Sanders? Well, Um, he 99 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:32,280 Speaker 1: certainly appeared that way. But when we look at his positions. 100 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: Here's my conclusion. I say that was sanders agenda, his platform. 101 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 1: His policies remind me a lot of the Affordable Care Act, 102 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: where a lot of people agreed with the individual components 103 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:46,480 Speaker 1: of the Affordable Care Act, as you know, things like 104 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: allowing teenagers there are young people to write on their 105 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 1: parents policies and on and so forth. However, as a 106 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: whole the Act didn't do that well with the public. 107 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 1: It still doesn't. You know, there's a plurality opposed the 108 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,559 Speaker 1: Affordable Care Act. Now when we look down the list 109 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: of everything h Bernie Sanders has proposed, I would say 110 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,840 Speaker 1: a clear majority of those things do resonate with the 111 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 1: American public, and the public would agree with it. Until 112 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 1: he's on the issues that the public agrees with. If 113 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 1: you don't like abortion, where Americans restrictions and he doesn't 114 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 1: the single payer tax healthcare system, uh, not so much. 115 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: Americans still want private insurance in there. But a lot 116 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,160 Speaker 1: of the things Americans resonate with. Now, whether as a 117 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:25,239 Speaker 1: package they'll vote for a seventy four year old who's 118 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: called himself a socialist nationwide, I don't know, but clearly 119 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 1: he's tapped in some things at his individual position. The 120 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 1: governor from Ohio and the lady from Hewlett Packard have 121 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: quote severe name I D problems. Absolutely, did the governor 122 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 1: from Ohio fix that last night? Well, I think that 123 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: you're talking about Kasey and I think he certainly will 124 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 1: go up. Um. Even before, just before last night, when 125 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: we interviewed Republicans nationwide, he was familiar only to four 126 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: others almost half of Republicans across the country that couldn't 127 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 1: offer an opinion of Casey. And that was as of 128 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:03,839 Speaker 1: interviewing done on Monday night. Uh, And he's clearly going 129 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: to move up. Sanders himself had below fifty name I 130 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: D back in the summer and he's now up to 131 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: So I think Casey definitely will his name I D 132 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: will move on. How do you do that? How do 133 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: you move your name I D up? I don't want 134 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 1: to be so jaundiced just to say it's just money, 135 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 1: whether you're spending in the Boston TV market or you 136 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: go down to the uniqueness of South Carolina. But but 137 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: what's the Frank Newport formula for boosting name? Ide? Do 138 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: you swear on air? Is that? How you know? Um? 139 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: That's a good question. I mean Donald Trump didn't need it. 140 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: He had name I d before he began campaigning. But 141 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 1: clearly he's dominated the media. I would say slow and steady. 142 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously most Americans are reminded of who these 143 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: candidates are by reading, by listening, by watching, by reading 144 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: traditional media and also online media. So I think his 145 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: name idea is going to go up because people are 146 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 1: just going to bump into his name more now that 147 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: he came in second and New Hampshire will be given 148 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: more uh atis. When commentators such as yourself are babbling 149 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: about the candidates, his name will come up more frequency 150 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 1: that Frank Newport just a shot at us. No, no, no, no, 151 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 1: this is positive word there. I think I can't spell area. 152 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 1: I see you're okay, Frank Newport. When you look at 153 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: you know the I guess the polling and the character. 154 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: This so much is a dynastic and we've got the 155 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 1: Clinton dynasty, the Bush dynasty. Let's focus on the Bushes 156 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: right now. We'll come back on the Clintons. The idea 157 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 1: that you sort of pick your nostalgic Bush depending on 158 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 1: the state you're in. Obviously, Governor Bush is going to 159 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: do that with George W And and all that, what's 160 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: the value of dynasty in two thousand sixteen. Um, well, 161 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 1: it certainly confers name ideas we've talked about, but but 162 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:51,959 Speaker 1: beyond that, I don't think there's a lot of value. 163 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: As we've seen Jeff Bush clearly, being the brother of 164 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 1: one and the son of another president has name idea 165 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 1: and people know who he is. That that his image 166 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: among Republicans just stayed very tepid. He just hasn't been 167 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,560 Speaker 1: able to move the needles on that. And the biggest 168 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 1: thing we're tracking now in terms of images is the 169 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 1: freefall for Hillary Clinton. You know, she's extremely well known, 170 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:15,679 Speaker 1: but the Democrats just as each day goes by and 171 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 1: more likely to tell us they have an unfavorable opinion 172 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: of her. So, uh, it buys your name, I d 173 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: but that doesn't buy you vote. We'll come back on 174 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,079 Speaker 1: Secretary Clinton very quickly. Here, Frank Newport, were you a 175 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: rowing a muskie? Cheerfully said goodbye? Well, I was early alive, 176 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 1: but I was not in the poing industry. Things changed. 177 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: If things changed, Um, clearly, the only thing that the only, 178 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: the only constant has changed has that things clearly moved. 179 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: We've talked about a lot of the players here moving 180 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 1: on from New Hampshire and we'll come back and talk 181 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 1: about as Secretary Clinton. Don't forget with all due respect 182 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: with our political coverage and the Bloomberg Politics website as well, 183 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 1: Mark Halpern and John I've been leading the charge here. 184 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: Megan Murphy out of Washington, d C. Has been very 185 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:09,199 Speaker 1: helpful with Bloomberg surveillance over the last number of days. 186 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: Is really, you know, the forever US campaign for those 187 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: of you globally, UH it goes on forever. I think 188 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 1: it's like five hundred day dashed to the first Tuesday 189 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: of November. We're barely starting here with the drama yesterday 190 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 1: and New Hampshire futures up twenty features up one six. 191 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 1: We'll continue with freight Newport of Gallop, the Euro one 192 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: sixty five and yen. Still with that shocking one fourteen 193 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: handle one fourteen ninety four Bob since making very clear 194 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: the Japanese UH elite want to keep that above a 195 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:51,839 Speaker 1: one fifteen um West Texas the barrel, and now in 196 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: New York with the news. Here's Michael bart Tom, thank 197 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: you very much. The next stop for the Republican presidential 198 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: candidates is South Carolina. Publican primary will be held in 199 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,680 Speaker 1: the state on February. Donald Trump is coming off a 200 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 1: decisive win in New Hampshire. Democrat Bernie Sanders beat Hillary 201 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 1: Clinton by twenty one percentage points last night in the 202 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 1: New Hampshire Democratic primary. The next stop for the Democrats 203 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 1: is the Nevada Caucus. The U. S. Supreme Court blocked 204 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: President Obama's plan to cut emissions from power plants. The 205 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: five four vote yesterday halts the Environmental Protection agencies Clean 206 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: Power Plan for now utilities, coal miners, and more than 207 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: two dozen states say the agency had overstepped its authority 208 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 1: and intruded on states rights. The man who killed Senator 209 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: Robert Kennedy in will be before parole Board today. It 210 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: will be the fifteenth time before parole board for Sierhn Sierhan, 211 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,319 Speaker 1: who is now seventy one Global News twenty four hours 212 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: a day, powered by our journalists. I'm Michael Barr, Tom Michael, 213 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 1: thanks so much again. Hydrocarbon's oil a shocking number, still 214 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: fifty two cents. We're with Frank Newport of Gallop. I'm 215 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: a road to South Carolina. Bloomberg Surveillance. The news update 216 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 1: brought to you by Benzel Busch Motor Car in the Anglewood, 217 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: New Jersey. You're offering good commitment to service luxury in 218 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 1: value with total transparency from America's premiere automotive dealership. To 219 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: find the way you drive at benzel Bush dot com. 220 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: Global business News twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 221 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus Mobile Act and on your radio. 222 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. 223 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: U S stock index futures are advancing, mirroring gains and 224 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 1: European shares and oil prices. Let's go to the First 225 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,959 Speaker 1: Word Breaking news desk for today's morning call, and here's 226 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: Bill Maloney. Good morning Bill, Good morning Karen. US features 227 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,679 Speaker 1: are maintaining their games since the last time we spoke down. 228 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: Features currently hired by a hundred and forty three point 229 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:55,960 Speaker 1: Sesames Game one and NAZAC futures rise by sixty six. 230 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: Main up markets are also trading high, lit by five 231 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 1: percent gains in it'll e and Deutsche Bank gains thirteen 232 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 1: thirteent in Germany. On the economic front. At ten o'clock, 233 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: yell And testifies to a House committee. Testimony will be 234 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 1: released at a thirty after the LLOS Knight, acam I 235 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 1: and Disney beat, Panera, BREADYPS topped highest estimates and Solar 236 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: City Q and Laws view is wider than estimates. Shares 237 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:23,040 Speaker 1: it down thirty one percent pre market regard earnings today, 238 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,559 Speaker 1: Time Warner EPs beat and Humanity EPs was in line, 239 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 1: while revenue missed. Find Me some of You, Q wallsheet 240 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: upgrades and downgrades. Salesforce raised to buy its c ls A, 241 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: Pandora cut to market performer, Cowen XL Group cut to 242 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 1: sell at Deutsche Bank, Coca Cola raised to hold at Sogen, 243 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: Solar City raised shrunk by at Raymond James, and find 244 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 1: the US Bank Corps raised to outperform over at Wells. 245 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 1: Far Ago Live from the First Breaking News desk gone, 246 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: Bill Maloney, Karen, all right, thanks avail to hear live 247 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: breaking news over here. Bloomberg type squawk ago on your terminal. 248 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 1: Dot's ask you a w U K go and that's 249 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Curne thinks, so much. 250 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 1: Good morning everyone. Bloomberg's surveillance a bunch of by Investco. 251 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 1: Don't settle for average in your portfolio. To investco. The 252 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: right approach means investing with high Conviction find out more 253 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 1: in investco dot com slash high Conviction. What a pleasure 254 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: to have Freight Newport with us with Gallup? To me 255 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 1: the oldest of the poll they're the venerable crew. Frank, 256 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 1: What is it like having all these competitors we have 257 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: like poll pol Nirvana. Now there's like eight hundred thousand poles? 258 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: Are we pulled out? Are there too many polls? I 259 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 1: don't I don't think so. George Gallup when he started 260 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 1: the company had a lot of competitors as well, Roper 261 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: and Almoll, Crowsley. Yeah, he was not alone in the 262 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 1: field even back then. And um, we've been asked that 263 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: question before from a broad perspective industry perspective. As long 264 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 1: as they're well done, which a lot of them are not. 265 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: But as long as we have well done polls, then 266 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 1: it's good. It's kind of like saying, do we need 267 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: Is it bad to have more newspapers? You know, it's 268 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: good to actually have more people trying to assess public opinion. 269 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: What we need more of is trying to put it 270 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 1: all together and tell people, tell people what it means. 271 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: So let's get to the cup of coffee that secretary 272 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: Clinton has to have with a few people around her 273 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: desk this morning, Frank Newport. Since we began tracking in July, 274 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: Mrs Clinton has averaged a sixteen point higher net favorable 275 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 1: score among Democrats than Senator Sanders. Is New Hampshire an 276 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: outlier in the Clinton morning in America sunrises in South Carolina. 277 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: Uh No, because she's extreme. That's the average. And if 278 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: you look at the graphs, she has over the last 279 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 1: three weeks fallen precipitously compared to senator senators. And this 280 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: is her image, which we think is important at this 281 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 1: point Democrats nationwide, we say, do you have a favorable 282 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 1: unfavorable opinion of Clinton? And then of Sanders? And her 283 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 1: image among Democrats has just to basically do look at 284 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 1: the graph plummeted over the last three weeks, and at 285 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: the same time Sanders has gone up. We we are 286 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 1: about to ask that we don't know exactly, but I 287 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,119 Speaker 1: believe that it would have to do with the emails, 288 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: um and and other criticisms and other things she's had 289 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 1: to do with. When we last asked people what comes 290 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: to mind first when you think of Tillerman Clinton a 291 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 1: bit ago, emails was the number one thing that came up. 292 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: So I still think that's part of the part of 293 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 1: her that she has to deal with. But my bottom 294 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 1: line is an image now among Democrats and particularly among 295 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: all Americans now is significantly worse than it wasn't she 296 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: was campaigning at any point in oh eight. You own 297 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: the historical coverage of tilting left, tilting right, running center, 298 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 1: the migration of that vector across the electoral campaign. Did 299 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: she make a mistake tilting left to take on Senator Sanders? Well, 300 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 1: the country as the whole is tilted left. If you 301 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: look at the graphs, you know I thought the country 302 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: as a whole is tilted right. Now that's incorrect. When 303 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: you ask people are you liberal, moderate, or conservative, we're 304 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: seeing a increase in the person who say liberal. We're 305 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,400 Speaker 1: in particularly seen a crease in the percent of Democrats 306 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: over the last you know, five to ten years who 307 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: now are willing to use the Elbert, are willing to 308 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: identify as liberals. Is that Ben? Is that like George 309 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:11,159 Speaker 1: Carlin's Seven Dirty Words? No, it isn't. Actually, And a 310 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 1: lot of Democrats, as you know and have covered, have 311 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: tried to use the p word progressive if they think 312 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 1: is more palatable, But we find in our data more 313 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 1: people are willing to accept the L word, the liberal words. 314 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,119 Speaker 1: The world is moving somewhat more in that direct does 315 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,439 Speaker 1: have to do? What does she have to do to 316 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 1: write the last three weeks debacle? Well, if I had 317 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 1: to summarize one thing, it would be somehow be honest 318 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: um with the public, somehow convinced them that she's straightforward 319 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 1: and as what's the correct word? Sanders comes across and 320 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 1: this is my personal opinion, not based on the data, 321 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 1: but he comes across as a straightforward, honest guy who 322 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 1: has policies that he's pushing and whether you like him 323 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 1: or not, he's not do pusses about. He says, Yeah, 324 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 1: I want a single payer taxicism. That's it. You know, 325 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 1: if you don't like it'd go away with That's what 326 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: That's what I want. And I think that at this 327 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: point in time is a little of something that Trump's 328 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:08,479 Speaker 1: picked up on as well. The public's looking for that 329 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: in their politicians. So somehow, I would you know that 330 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: she could ponder firing anybody who tells her what to 331 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 1: do and just says say what you think. Sectary Clinton, 332 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 1: just say what you think. Perhaps that will resonate at 333 00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: the public to get the personality thing. We got to 334 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 1: get you on more often. Frank, one minute left. I 335 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:30,679 Speaker 1: want you to quantify Gallops study of our fury. Michael 336 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: Barbaro of The New York Times. Wonderful word. The word 337 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 1: I've been using is just simple anger. Quantify America's anger 338 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: on this February morning. I would respond to that Americans 339 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 1: are not personally angry. H Their personal lives are going okay, 340 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: so a little financial anxiety. But what they're angry about 341 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,399 Speaker 1: is the government. The one word I would use, the 342 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: G word government. Americans are just extraordinarily dissatisfied with the 343 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 1: way their government functions. And I've lost competence in government. 344 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 1: And they're four people, including Sanders, who's a sitting senator 345 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 1: but who criticizes the Senate extraordinarily say it's out of 346 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: control and controlled by special interest. When somebody likes Sanders 347 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: and Trump come along and criticize government, they're resonating with 348 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 1: that part of the public. Okay, Frank, fabulous. Frank Newport 349 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: very kind to be with us. The day after New Hampshire. 350 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,399 Speaker 1: He is with a small start up polling agency called 351 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: Gallop Futures Up twenty three down, futures up one fifty two. 352 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 1: Don't forget Janet Yellen. It's a bit confusing, or why 353 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 1: you help me here? Janet Yellen is speaking at ten 354 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 1: prepared testimony and there'll be Q and A afterwards, always 355 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 1: theatric with the House of Representatives. But you're going to 356 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:45,959 Speaker 1: see the headlines from the text in five minutes. In 357 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 1: five minutes, and Michael McKee and I will tear through 358 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: that as well. I have not seen the embargoed speech. 359 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 1: I'm not going to leak it out that they don't 360 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:55,480 Speaker 1: give it to me because I'm too mouthy. But the 361 00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,679 Speaker 1: bottom line is we're gonna have that for you in 362 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: five minutes and then we'll interpret that as a sure 363 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:06,119 Speaker 1: the market will as well. This is Bloomberg Surveillance, the 364 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: old due respect highlight coming. I brought you by land Rover. 365 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 1: If it's in your nature to cast off the every 366 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 1: day and seek adventure, the Discovery Sport was built to 367 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 1: help your search. Visit land Roper tri state dot com 368 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: for special offers during their only Adventure Sales event. Land 369 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:25,359 Speaker 1: Rover Above and Beyond It broadcasting live to New York 370 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:30,360 Speaker 1: Kloomberg eleventh Rio to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, 371 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: Bluemberg twelve onders to San Francisco, Bloomberg to the Country 372 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 1: Series Exam Channel one ninety and around the globe the 373 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:43,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. 374 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: Good morning everyone, Michael McKee and Tim Keene headline is 375 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 1: just how Michael McKee digesting thousands of Janet Yellen headlines. 376 00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: That means it's time for our economic indicators and that 377 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 1: report brought you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time 378 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,040 Speaker 1: to change the conversation, talk with the broker dealer, A 379 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 1: R I A that's ready to listen call age six 380 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 1: six four six two three six three eight or visit 381 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: Commonwealth dot com to learn more. Six six four six 382 00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: two three six three eight or visit Commonwealth dot com 383 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: to learn more. A lifted yields held a little bit 384 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: higher here in the seconds. Equity markets churn up twenty 385 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 1: on the futures. Always just a little bit of dollar strength. 386 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,920 Speaker 1: I'll call it with the N Mike, I'm gonna call 387 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: it an immediate market churn off these headlines, Mr McKee, 388 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 1: see I expect I'll go higher uh. She sounds relatively 389 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: doubsh here, saying that the economy she expects will only 390 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: will warrant only gradual rate rises and that financial strange 391 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: could weigh on the outlook if they are persistent. They 392 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: do expect inflation to remain low in the near term, 393 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: over the medium terminal rise to their UH two percent target. 394 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,919 Speaker 1: Some surveys of inflation expectations are at the low end. 395 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,119 Speaker 1: That's a reference to the numbers we've seen recently that 396 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 1: have deteriorated. Jim Bullard talking about that, she does say 397 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 1: that labor market and wage gains should support incomes and spending. 398 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: There has been solid improvement in labor markets. Lower oil 399 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:22,040 Speaker 1: and long term borrowing costs should provide some off problems. 400 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: The dreaded slack word, there's still some slack, which she 401 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 1: would expect her to say. She's she has believed that, 402 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 1: but again the focus on what's been going on in 403 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 1: the markets. She notes any market declines, the higher dollar 404 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: and wider credit spreads has problems out there. On the 405 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: other hand, because of she sees reasons why growth could 406 00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 1: exceed their forecast, and they don't see a sharp slowdown 407 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: in China, So the bottom line is this quote monetary 408 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,720 Speaker 1: policy is by no means on a preset course. In 409 00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 1: other words, take that dot chart and throw it. I 410 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 1: I strongly agree with that, and I strongly agree with 411 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 1: you and do it. Folks. We need to say a 412 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 1: major shout out to our economic and government team led 413 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,680 Speaker 1: by Marty Schenker, Mike McKee and I have teed up 414 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 1: smart people writing out these headlines about what's in the verbiage. 415 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: I totally agree with you, Mark. My preset preset course 416 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 1: dovetails with this new phrase actual progress. So they're looking 417 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: for actual progress along a non preset course. Do I 418 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 1: that right? Yes? I mean they they've been looking for acting. 419 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 1: They have got progress on the labor market, one of 420 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 1: their mandates. They're not seeing it on inflation. Oil prices 421 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:46,399 Speaker 1: are keeping inflation down, and she says inflation expectations have 422 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 1: gone lower. Her main focus is financial conditions, though she 423 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,439 Speaker 1: says that quote, financial conditions in the United States have 424 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 1: recently become less supportive of growth. These developments, if they 425 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 1: proved persistent, could weigh on the look for economic activity 426 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 1: and the labor markets. So we're watching now. The important 427 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind that many on Wall Street 428 00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 1: seem to have forgotten in the last six weeks is 429 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 1: on Wall Street, you've got to mark the market every day. 430 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 1: The Fed doesn't have to. They don't have to make 431 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: a decision until the morning of March sixteen, so they're 432 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 1: gonna keep an eye on what's going on. If it 433 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:26,439 Speaker 1: continues as it has, they won't raise rates. If suddenly 434 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: we see a change, they might. I strongly support that 435 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 1: and one of the themes to they And thank you 436 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,679 Speaker 1: for the huge Twitter response to this collegial debate with 437 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: people on both sides of the debate. Mark Mike is 438 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,960 Speaker 1: should people should business people should pundans and media types 439 00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: like you and me? Should the Fed ignore the markets? 440 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,440 Speaker 1: I've made clear him in the camp that the markets 441 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:54,880 Speaker 1: don't have a behavioral construct, and that the markets are 442 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 1: the markets and they're pricing in their assessment of risk. 443 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: I think that's one of the debates should make. Well, 444 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:05,159 Speaker 1: we don't know whether the markets are reflecting developments in 445 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:10,640 Speaker 1: the economy, predicting developments in the economy, or decoupled from development. 446 00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 1: Our next guest has fourteen textbooks at home. Address this top. Yes. 447 00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 1: Steve Richido is chief economist at Missoo Ho Uh Steve, 448 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:25,800 Speaker 1: your takeaway from this about the FEDS stants, Well, I 449 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 1: think you're correct in the idea that for them, they 450 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 1: have the time to wait. Again, they don't have to 451 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 1: make the decision until the middle of March. Everybody else 452 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 1: is trying to run ahead of their assumptions. They're just 453 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,200 Speaker 1: gonna sit, watch and wait. And the verities that came 454 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:43,640 Speaker 1: out here was very very consistent with what we saw 455 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 1: come out of the last postmediate policy statement, where they 456 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 1: did not have an operating bias to their policy. So 457 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,400 Speaker 1: everything he was very very consistent with that. I think 458 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: the markets problem is the market went into this expecting 459 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: some great surprise to some extent by Janet, you know, 460 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 1: and there was a lot of discussion about look poor, 461 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 1: you know, operation twist two, or some other adjustment in 462 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 1: terms of quantitative easy or some other adjustment, uh, in 463 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,159 Speaker 1: terms of where the forward outwork outwork look would go 464 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 1: on interest rates, and you kind of got none of that. 465 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 1: You've got it basically a rational discussion of the conditions 466 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 1: that are out there. And I think personally that markets 467 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 1: do not do a very big job of predicting what's 468 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,199 Speaker 1: happening with the underlying economy and the risks posed by 469 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 1: the underlying economy, because since nineteen nine we've had three recessions, 470 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: and those recessions have been credit oriented, and when you 471 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: look at the underlying credit quality of the US economy, 472 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,199 Speaker 1: whether it be non financial corporate households or banks, they 473 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,080 Speaker 1: were a heck of a lot better position than they 474 00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,360 Speaker 1: were at each last three begins to bussycos Let's come back. 475 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,240 Speaker 1: Steavers showed a level longer conversation on this unfair to 476 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 1: him as we had to go through the headlines. He 477 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: is with the Zoo looking forward to Mr Shudos thoughts 478 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 1: here on monetary policy, and again the Q and A 479 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 1: with Chairman Anseling, the ranking member Maxine Waters and others 480 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 1: of the committee is always important. I don't in any 481 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 1: way belittle the value that we see out of selected 482 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:09,160 Speaker 1: house questions. What's moved? Equity markets pulling a little bit. 483 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,680 Speaker 1: Oil Oil has dropped like a rock. I just got 484 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 1: a twenty seven nineties seven print on oil and we 485 00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:21,360 Speaker 1: are going to retest yesterday's lows. That's what you need 486 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:24,880 Speaker 1: to know. Oil just fell out of bed ninety six. 487 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: Brent crude with a thirty handle thirty point uh five 488 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 1: six yields stable the tenure one point seven six. The 489 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:40,359 Speaker 1: other big issue for the markets today the New Hampshire primary. 490 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,840 Speaker 1: Michael bar has the very latest Mike Time, Thank you 491 00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 1: very much. The presidential candidates now have their sights set 492 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 1: for South Carolina and Havanna. Donald Trump had a sound 493 00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:53,160 Speaker 1: win last night in the New Hampshire Republican primary. Ohio 494 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,879 Speaker 1: Governor John Kasy finished second behind Trump. K is now 495 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: under attack by former Florida Governor Jeff Bush. However, case 496 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,880 Speaker 1: It says he is sticking with his game plan. They 497 00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:06,119 Speaker 1: are spending all their money going negative, and when you 498 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,399 Speaker 1: pound me, I'm going to have to defend myself. But 499 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,720 Speaker 1: I think it's sad. I think it's a sad situation 500 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,400 Speaker 1: when you've got to rely on negative to move voters, 501 00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: at which they haven't been able to do. Meanwhile, New 502 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:20,199 Speaker 1: Jersey Governor Chris Christie told his supporters last night he 503 00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 1: was heading home to his state to take a deep 504 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,719 Speaker 1: breath and assess what comes next. And the Christie organizers 505 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 1: says the New Jersey governor has canceled an event today 506 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:33,119 Speaker 1: in South Carolina for the Democrats. Bernie Sanders beat Hillary 507 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 1: Clinton in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. By points. The 508 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,960 Speaker 1: next time for the Democrats is the Nevana Caucus on February. 509 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,720 Speaker 1: The man convicted of killing Senator Robert F. Kennedy has 510 00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 1: been consistent in saying he remembers none of it. Sirhan 511 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 1: Sirhan is up for parole again. Today. A military spokesman 512 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,040 Speaker 1: says the US Army will deploy hundreds more soldiers to 513 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 1: eight Afghan forces who are fighting the Taliban. According to 514 00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 1: The New York Times, the troops will be sent to 515 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,000 Speaker 1: the helm In provs Global News twenty four hours a day, 516 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 1: powered by hour, its four hundred journalists more than a 517 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,120 Speaker 1: hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world. I'm Michael Barr, 518 00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 1: Mike Tom, Thank you, Michael. Now let's check in with 519 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 1: John stash Hour for the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. John 520 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: all Right, Mike Nick's hit the All Star Break with 521 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 1: a six game losing streak, just one win over their 522 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:23,120 Speaker 1: last eleven games. As has been happening repeatedly, they fell 523 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,280 Speaker 1: behind big early on rallied back the lost at the 524 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,960 Speaker 1: end party eight points for Zingison, bounds at calder on, 525 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 1: counter on quickly to the front court out count away 526 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 1: for three, and sure just missed it. He falls down 527 00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 1: on the ground. I want to tie the game, and 528 00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,960 Speaker 1: the nixt lose one eleven to one oh eight. Knicks 529 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 1: Radio Washington made sixteen of twenty six three pinners John 530 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 1: Walt point seventeen, assist Carmelo Anthony lad New York with 531 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:56,080 Speaker 1: thirty three. Kurt Rambis loses his Nick's coaching debut. They 532 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 1: just made good shots, you know. We we made the 533 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,080 Speaker 1: switches that we wanted, We made the defensive adjustment that 534 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,400 Speaker 1: we wanted, but they still hit shots, and then we 535 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 1: also made some mistakes that opened up the three point shots. 536 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 1: So it was a tough night for us. We feel 537 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 1: like we we made the adjustment to stop their transition. 538 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 1: In the second half local lock. He saw the Devils 539 00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 1: and Islanders both win, Devils to one over Edmonton in 540 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,920 Speaker 1: the three game losing speak. Before they started, they honored 541 00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 1: Marty Broder. They retired his number of the winning this 542 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 1: goal in NHL history. They earlier unveiled a statue bro 543 00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,400 Speaker 1: Dur outside the Arena Islanders in Columbus one three two 544 00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,240 Speaker 1: in a shoot out of the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. 545 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 1: I'm John John. Thanks so much, Mr Dur for those 546 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 1: of you worldwide. Was better than good Mike. He was resilient, 547 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 1: wasn't he? Marty Burder just was there every game, game 548 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,320 Speaker 1: for year, years for years. We should we should be 549 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,120 Speaker 1: have that kind of career. And I think of him 550 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,800 Speaker 1: like Tom sever the baseball player, that he changed his game. 551 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 1: He went from you know, jumping around making impossible says, 552 00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,120 Speaker 1: to being more kg and smart. You don't see that 553 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:03,760 Speaker 1: from is thy kind of god? Okay, camp Felure, please 554 00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,800 Speaker 1: get out the cold plate if you can. Features up 555 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,160 Speaker 1: twelve doubt futures up seventy seven ten u yeld one 556 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 1: point seven. This is Bloomberg Peyton Manning's surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance 557 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,120 Speaker 1: is brought to you by Flushing Bank. Open a complete 558 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 1: business checking account with fifteen thousand dollars or more and 559 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,600 Speaker 1: get a free sixteen gig WiFi tablet. Visit Flushing Bank 560 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:31,600 Speaker 1: dot com for more details. Remember f D I C 561 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 1: Equal Housing Lender, Global Business News twenty four hours a day. 562 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 1: If Bloomberg dot Com the radio plus Mobile Act and 563 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 1: on your radio. This is a Bloomberg business Flash. But 564 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 1: I'm Karen Moscow. This update is brought to you by 565 00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,760 Speaker 1: Sector Spider E T f why buy a single stock 566 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 1: when you can invest in the entire sector? Visit sector 567 00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 1: spd r s dot com are called six sector e 568 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 1: t f us DOCK Index futures paired gains. They're higher again, though, 569 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,040 Speaker 1: after Federal Reserve Chair Jenny Yellen said financial conditions have 570 00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 1: become less supportive of growth, while the Central Bank still 571 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 1: expects to raise interest rates gradually. So we saw futures 572 00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 1: briefly pairing gains after those comments. Yelling made the comments 573 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 1: and testimony prepare for delivery before the House Financial Services 574 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: Committee today. We do check the markets every fifteen minutes 575 00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 1: throughout the trading day on bloomberg S and p E 576 00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 1: mini futures of fifteen points, DOWIE mini futures up one 577 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 1: hundred one and NASDAC Euni futures up fifty five decks. 578 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 1: In Germany's up two point one percent ten your treasury 579 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,840 Speaker 1: down seven thirty seconds, the yield one point seven five 580 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 1: percent NIME ex scret oil is up four tenths per cent, 581 00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 1: or eleven cents at twenty oh five of barrel coms. 582 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 1: Gold is down eight tens per cent or nine dollars 583 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,720 Speaker 1: thirty cents to eleven eighty nine fifty announced, the euro 584 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 1: and dollar twelve thirty seven, the yen one fourteen point 585 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 1: h two, and the European Union and US regulators have 586 00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,480 Speaker 1: reached a common approach on overside of the five hundred 587 00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 1: fifty three trillion dollar global derivatives market. That's of a 588 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,920 Speaker 1: Bomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much. 589 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,680 Speaker 1: I just put out the oil chart. Fancy oil chart 590 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,480 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio Plus. I got that on social here 591 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:14,160 Speaker 1: in a minute, it is on Wall Street. The following 592 00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,240 Speaker 1: is from Bloomberg View, opinions and commentary from Bloomberg columnists 593 00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,320 Speaker 1: and Megan mccartell, a columist from Bloomberg View. President Barack 594 00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 1: Obama's proposal o levia ten dollar barrel tax on oil 595 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 1: reminds me of an eternal truth that applies to almost 596 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 1: all working humans. Once you know you're on short time, 597 00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:33,160 Speaker 1: about to be transferred or discharged, certain puckish and soucience 598 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,440 Speaker 1: seeps into the performance of your daily duties. Presidential budgets 599 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 1: are always more wishless than to do. Of course, assumptions 600 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,520 Speaker 1: are made, hopeful suggestions offered, and then Congress chuckles and 601 00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 1: says good one chief before returning to whatever they were 602 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: doing before. This is especially true when the opposition controls 603 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 1: both legislative houses, and it's most very especially true during 604 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 1: the last years of a presidency, when a lonely nation's 605 00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,760 Speaker 1: eyes turned towards the folks fighting to replace you. And 606 00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 1: by these standards, however, a ten dollar barrel oil taxes 607 00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 1: a bold choice. There's something to be said for such taxes. 608 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 1: Of course, they're efficient, easy to collect, and they might 609 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,440 Speaker 1: help to do something about global warming. But they're also 610 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 1: regressive and wildly unpopular. Republicans are not going to stick 611 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,279 Speaker 1: their next out to help Obama pass it. But that's 612 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:15,719 Speaker 1: not the purpose of these sorts of proposals. There feel 613 00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 1: good projects aimed at firing up the base for November 614 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,759 Speaker 1: and perhaps as setting the agenda for a successor he 615 00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,520 Speaker 1: hopes will also be a Democrat. As a policy proposal, 616 00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:25,840 Speaker 1: this taxes d o A, but his politics, it might 617 00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,239 Speaker 1: have a longer life. I'm Megan McCardell. For more view 618 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: please go to Move and View dot com or view 619 00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,399 Speaker 1: go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg View 620 00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,440 Speaker 1: and bloom Review commentaries can be here in hourly weekdays 621 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:40,200 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Radio, Mike, it is Steve or Shuto, the 622 00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,120 Speaker 1: patient one. We thank him for being so patient as 623 00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:45,799 Speaker 1: we work our way through all these headlines. It's an 624 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,760 Speaker 1: unusual change that the Congress has made in the release 625 00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 1: system for testimony. Let us have it at eight thirty 626 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:54,520 Speaker 1: in the morning instead of right at ten when she 627 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:59,520 Speaker 1: begins her testimony. Steve, along with the testimony from Janet 628 00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 1: Yell and we get the FEDS Monetary Policy report and 629 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 1: and a magnificent job of telling us what we already know. Uh. 630 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 1: They suggest that the divergence in policy between the United States, Europe, 631 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:17,280 Speaker 1: and Japan is having effects. The dollar is stronger, damping 632 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:23,000 Speaker 1: US exports but also contributing to stabilization abroad and attracting 633 00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:25,520 Speaker 1: money into the United States that pushes down on interest rates. 634 00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:30,440 Speaker 1: Are we at a point now where divergence may become 635 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,560 Speaker 1: less of an issue if the Fed is more constrained, 636 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,759 Speaker 1: and if the Bank of Japan has done negative interest 637 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:40,719 Speaker 1: rates and as you can as we can see in 638 00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:45,000 Speaker 1: the market today getting almost nothing for it. Yeah, I 639 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,440 Speaker 1: think looking at the currency, we may be at the 640 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,959 Speaker 1: beginning of a transition where relative interest rates matter less 641 00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:54,719 Speaker 1: and who is into deflation and locked into deflation or 642 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:58,479 Speaker 1: heading into deflation matters more to transition from relative interest 643 00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 1: rates to purchasing power power and the purchasing power parity transition. 644 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:06,240 Speaker 1: What happens is the country that is deflating the most 645 00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:08,320 Speaker 1: is the one that I winds up with. The strongest 646 00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:11,040 Speaker 1: country is currency. The one that is deflating the second 647 00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,160 Speaker 1: most winds up with the second strongest current councy, and 648 00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,160 Speaker 1: the one that actually has some positive inflation winds up 649 00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:18,920 Speaker 1: with the weakest country. And that's why when you look 650 00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,759 Speaker 1: at some of the trade weighted dollars UH industries, you've 651 00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,600 Speaker 1: seen that the dollar has actually gone down relative to 652 00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:28,200 Speaker 1: a market basket of currency since m b o J 653 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,960 Speaker 1: Governor Krota made his surprise announcement on negative interest rates. Well, 654 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:36,560 Speaker 1: does that put a floor under what the central banks 655 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,920 Speaker 1: can do so that the dollar is is not the 656 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:44,560 Speaker 1: issue for the United States going forward, It certainly becomes 657 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,600 Speaker 1: a bigger problem for overseas central banks. If this transition 658 00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,080 Speaker 1: does take place. It looks like it's happening in Japan, 659 00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:53,680 Speaker 1: We're not so sure yet whether it's actually happening in 660 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:55,480 Speaker 1: eural Land, which I think would be the next one 661 00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,279 Speaker 1: for it to happen, and then potentially China being the 662 00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,880 Speaker 1: third one. But yes, it does help out domestic corporations 663 00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,680 Speaker 1: even in a very very sluggish global environment like the 664 00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,760 Speaker 1: more we're dealing with purchasing power parity in the switch 665 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,919 Speaker 1: to a weaker currency will have positive effects for internationals 666 00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:14,440 Speaker 1: earnings UH to show the technology company, especially the more 667 00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:17,960 Speaker 1: mono ligne technology companies that have a lot of overseas 668 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,040 Speaker 1: earnings that they could bring back UH in that environment. 669 00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,359 Speaker 1: So yes, it does have a positive ascept for things, 670 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:25,879 Speaker 1: and it is a likely transition. It's just a question 671 00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,759 Speaker 1: of whether it's happened yet or not. Steve fold in 672 00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:33,640 Speaker 1: global liquidity worries, this is the farthest thing from politicians 673 00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:37,279 Speaker 1: in the the US mind does cheerio and that she 674 00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:41,520 Speaker 1: compelled not in testimony, we've seen the testimony, but in 675 00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:47,560 Speaker 1: Q and A today, is she compelled to reaffirm financial 676 00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:51,880 Speaker 1: stability in the global system. Well, I think to some 677 00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:55,000 Speaker 1: extent the statements that have already come out in the 678 00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,480 Speaker 1: February policy discussion that was already released in the statement 679 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:01,839 Speaker 1: kind of do a little bit of that, because they've 680 00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,880 Speaker 1: taken a back pedal from the very very strong furbiage 681 00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,279 Speaker 1: that they had at the time of December when they 682 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,840 Speaker 1: raised rates, and when they raised rates in December, it 683 00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:11,839 Speaker 1: looked like they were on For most people, it looked 684 00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,360 Speaker 1: like they were on a course of a hundred basis 685 00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,880 Speaker 1: points where its increased in two thousand and sixteen, a 686 00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:20,359 Speaker 1: glide path towards three three three bases or three three 687 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,520 Speaker 1: three percentage point rise in interest rates over time. Now, 688 00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,560 Speaker 1: clearly after they've gotten off ZERL and they've seen what's 689 00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:29,799 Speaker 1: happened in terms of the underlying mac with economic data, 690 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:32,320 Speaker 1: they're a little bit less willing to push that direction. 691 00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:34,319 Speaker 1: But when you look at some of the data that's 692 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,880 Speaker 1: come out since they last their form, seeing they continued 693 00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:42,360 Speaker 1: decline in productivity, the rising unit labor costs, UH, the 694 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,400 Speaker 1: hourly earnings number that came out last Friday, what for 695 00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,920 Speaker 1: that matter, the Judge stata that came out yesterday, in 696 00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:49,759 Speaker 1: terms of what it said going in terms of the 697 00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:51,960 Speaker 1: way they read it in with regard to the labor market, 698 00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,200 Speaker 1: you really come back and say the labor market was 699 00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,560 Speaker 1: their problem in December, and if things stabilized, the labor 700 00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,480 Speaker 1: market could become their problem again. By on we get 701 00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,840 Speaker 1: to the March meeting, So I don't think financial market 702 00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,520 Speaker 1: volatility is weighing as much on the committee as they're 703 00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,879 Speaker 1: willing to give it lip services. They've done several times 704 00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,359 Speaker 1: in the past nine months, and then they back away 705 00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:15,799 Speaker 1: from it as soon as the market stabilized, So any 706 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,719 Speaker 1: little stability that comes out of the market, I think 707 00:39:17,719 --> 00:39:22,680 Speaker 1: they're after to back pedal on this one. The the 708 00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:27,239 Speaker 1: House is not generally friendly to federal Reserve chairs, So 709 00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:31,120 Speaker 1: do you expect them to ask her is it your 710 00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:34,560 Speaker 1: fault by raising rates that we have seen this volatility 711 00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,759 Speaker 1: and the economic slowdown. There's certainly been a lot of 712 00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:40,200 Speaker 1: press headlines to that extent. I never thought they should 713 00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:42,440 Speaker 1: raise interest rates. I do think some of this is 714 00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:45,160 Speaker 1: their fault because the way they had to set it up, 715 00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,319 Speaker 1: because they couldn't say one and done is what most 716 00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,560 Speaker 1: people in the markets wanted to do. They had to 717 00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,920 Speaker 1: set it up in this labor market context. This way 718 00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:55,279 Speaker 1: they could proved themselves consistent, and the labor market hasn't disappointed, 719 00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,440 Speaker 1: So they're kind of locked into this mouse trap of theirs. So, yes, 720 00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,279 Speaker 1: those questions are going to come up. She's gonna have 721 00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,520 Speaker 1: to defend her monetary policy decision and That's where I 722 00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:05,959 Speaker 1: think the negatives will come in terms of the bulk 723 00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,160 Speaker 1: of the testimony that comes out later today, she's gonna 724 00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,720 Speaker 1: have to defend what she did. She now owns that trade. 725 00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:15,920 Speaker 1: Why was it bad, Well, again, it wasn't bad in 726 00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,640 Speaker 1: terms of just basis points. It was bad in terms 727 00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:20,839 Speaker 1: of the way they had to do it. They had 728 00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,399 Speaker 1: to do it with this concept that two percent growth 729 00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,319 Speaker 1: is too strong. Corporate America, don't worry about the fact 730 00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:29,640 Speaker 1: that you have zero pricing power. Two percent growth is 731 00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:32,440 Speaker 1: too strong. It's creating a labor market that's tightening, that's 732 00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,719 Speaker 1: gonna lead to wage of pressures down the pipeline, and 733 00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,000 Speaker 1: we're not gonna let that can kick you. That's the 734 00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 1: message she gave out in December, and that's what transmitted 735 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,719 Speaker 1: finally through into the labor into the equity markets. With 736 00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,040 Speaker 1: the volatility we're getting. If you're a corporate CEO and 737 00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:47,279 Speaker 1: you're sitting there saying, you know, the sense telling you 738 00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:49,160 Speaker 1: we're done and this is the best we can do. 739 00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:53,400 Speaker 1: Markets were overvalued, and that's exactly what investor based markets 740 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:55,600 Speaker 1: were overvalued, and they were adjusting on the backdrop of that, 741 00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:57,719 Speaker 1: and that was the mistake. If they just came out 742 00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:00,120 Speaker 1: and were able to say one and done or may 743 00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,080 Speaker 1: d one and maybe we'll do one more. We got 744 00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:06,440 Speaker 1: to get off euros they couldn't give. Steve, thank you 745 00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,000 Speaker 1: so much. Steven shooto with on the spot analysis in 746 00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:13,719 Speaker 1: MISSOI again, as Michael McKee said, this is a different process, Mike, 747 00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:17,440 Speaker 1: I sort of like this instead of ten o'clock and 748 00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:21,400 Speaker 1: a mad scramble of headlines while she's speaking. You know, 749 00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:23,719 Speaker 1: maybe with this coming out now, maybe do you think 750 00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,879 Speaker 1: she'll speak less about the testimony. Well, she read the whole. 751 00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:30,440 Speaker 1: She will read the testimony. Um even though all the 752 00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,879 Speaker 1: politicians and their staff are good staffs, well they out. 753 00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:35,480 Speaker 1: I mean, that's a secret in the past that she 754 00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:38,640 Speaker 1: gives the testimony to the House Committee the night before. 755 00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:40,759 Speaker 1: They've all read it by the time they get there, 756 00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:45,279 Speaker 1: but she reads it for public consumption and to put 757 00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:49,080 Speaker 1: it into the record. The the cynical view of what 758 00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:52,000 Speaker 1: the House may have done is nobody ever paid attention 759 00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:53,800 Speaker 1: to what the members of Congress were saying because we 760 00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:57,520 Speaker 1: were always so busy digesting the headlines. So now maybe 761 00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:00,400 Speaker 1: we will listen to the opening statements. That would be 762 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,879 Speaker 1: the cynic not that anybody should ever be cynical about 763 00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:07,160 Speaker 1: what Congress does. But uh, that may be. It interesting 764 00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:10,600 Speaker 1: that markets are hanging in there tom no change at 765 00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:15,680 Speaker 1: all really in the yield curve from testimony. We talked 766 00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,320 Speaker 1: earlier about her trying to get in and out in 767 00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:22,320 Speaker 1: a hippocratic manner, do no harm. So far the testimony 768 00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,239 Speaker 1: suggests she might be. I would oil is soft, but 769 00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,440 Speaker 1: I'm not going to ascribe oil so much too it. 770 00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,600 Speaker 1: Granted it went down with the release of the comments, 771 00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:36,279 Speaker 1: but the other markets don't confirm the correlation of oil done. 772 00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:40,560 Speaker 1: I will watch Japanese yen one four is a stronger 773 00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,360 Speaker 1: yen and the last post yelling man. If this is 774 00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,640 Speaker 1: a lot of fun monetary economics with Michael McKee, it 775 00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:48,400 Speaker 1: doesn't get better than this. Stay with us