Speaker 1: Welcome.
Speaker 2: It is verdict was Senator Ted Cruz ben Ferguson with
Speaker 2: you as well. And we are going to obviously talk
Speaker 2: about the most famous mugshot I think in political history
Speaker 2: of Donald Trump coming out of Georgia. What this means
Speaker 2: to the campaign. We're going to do that for you
Speaker 2: in a second. But we're also going to talk about
Speaker 2: the presidential debate. Now here's the cool part. We're going
Speaker 2: to talk about what it's like to be in a
Speaker 2: presidential debate, how you prep for presidential debate, and what
Speaker 2: it's like to walk out there for the first time,
Speaker 2: because for many of these people they had never been
Speaker 2: in this position before. Senator you watch the debate, give
Speaker 2: us your overall review of this debate, this first debate
Speaker 2: with Donald Trump not showing up. Was that smart of
Speaker 2: him not to show up? And how did you think
Speaker 2: people did on that stage?
Speaker 3: Well, look, I thought everyone did a good job on
Speaker 3: Wednesday night. That being said, I think there were clear
Speaker 3: winners that came out of the night. And to my view,
Speaker 3: there were four winners that came out of the debate.
Speaker 3: Number one was Vivek Ramaswami. He had a very strong
Speaker 3: performance that night. Many Americans had ever heard of him,
Speaker 3: didn't know him, and I think he impressed a lot
Speaker 3: of people. His stock went up. He's going to raise
Speaker 3: a lot of money off of that. He's going to
Speaker 3: go up in the polls, particularly in the early primary states.
Speaker 3: I think Secondly, Nikki Hayley did well.
Speaker 4: On Wednesday Night. She was crisp, she was strong.
Speaker 3: She was aiming for a different slice of the electric
Speaker 3: She was not going for the Maga America first slice.
Speaker 3: She was not particularly going for conservative. She was aiming
Speaker 3: much more for the establishment lane.
Speaker 4: But she was.
Speaker 3: Aggressive, smart, well prepared, and I think she strengthened herself.
Speaker 3: She had been out of the news for a while
Speaker 3: and I think she enhanced her standing Wednesday night. The
Speaker 3: third person who I think advanced himself somewhat is Mike Penn. Now, look,
Speaker 3: Mike is a friend. Actually, all these guys, I know
Speaker 3: everyone on the stage well, but Mike is a good man.
Speaker 3: Mike had been having a tough time. He had not
Speaker 3: been getting a lot of traction, and I think he
Speaker 3: was pugnacious. He was in there fighting. I think he
Speaker 3: made a deliberate play for evangelical voters, in particular in Iowa.
Speaker 3: I think there were several of his answers that were
Speaker 3: directed very much at evangelical voters, and I think he
Speaker 3: probably helped himself. He reminded I mean, Mike is is
Speaker 3: a Christian, a strong believer, and I think he reminded
Speaker 3: people what they've always liked about Mike Pence. I think
Speaker 3: he enhanced himself somewhat on Wednesday Night, But none of
Speaker 3: the three of those were the biggest winners. I think,
Speaker 3: by far the biggest winner Wednesday night was Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: and I think Trump was very happy with everything that
Speaker 3: went down. And the reason for that is severalfold.
Speaker 4: Number one.
Speaker 3: Obviously, Trump didn't show up, and by not showing up,
Speaker 3: he forces a dynamic on the entire debate.
Speaker 4: That it's very difficult to avoid.
Speaker 3: The analogy of you think back in twenty sixteen, when
Speaker 3: there were two debate stages, the main debate stage for
Speaker 3: the candidates that were leading in the polls, and then
Speaker 3: they had a second debate stage for the candidates that
Speaker 3: were relatively low in the polls, and almost everyone referred
Speaker 3: to the second stage as the kiddie table. And I
Speaker 3: think by Trump's absence, it had the effect of diminishing everyone.
Speaker 4: On that stage, and I think that's what he wanted.
Speaker 4: I think that was his intention. He has a big
Speaker 4: lead in the polls, but.
Speaker 3: I think his absence made it feel like he's on
Speaker 3: a stage by himself and everyone else is on the
Speaker 3: other stage fighting between themselves. But secondly, and this is
Speaker 3: the biggest reason why I think Trump was benefited. You
Speaker 3: and I have talked about before, how I think this
Speaker 3: primary is principally a two person race, person race between
Speaker 3: Trump and Ron DeSantis.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 3: DeSantis did fine on Wednesday night. He didn't screw anything up,
Speaker 3: he didn't have any gaffs.
Speaker 4: UH.
Speaker 3: But he did not dominate. He did not own that stage.
Speaker 3: He was not clearly head and shoulders above the rest.
Speaker 4: Uh. And and for the DeSantis campaign, that's a problem. Uh.
Speaker 3: In particular, the problem for DeSantis is what I started
Speaker 3: by saying that Vivek and Hayley, h and Pence all
Speaker 3: did quite well. I think all three of them are
Speaker 3: going to enhance their numbers. And if their numbers are
Speaker 3: going to be enhanced, that comes out of DeSantis's hide.
Speaker 4: Ye.
Speaker 3: For DeSantis to have a shot at beating Trump, it's
Speaker 3: got to be a two man race. And so the
Speaker 3: reason why I think Trump was the biggest winner Wednesday
Speaker 3: night is that I think after the debate there were
Speaker 3: more tenders gaining traction. And the more the contenders are
Speaker 3: splitting support among multiple candidates, the better off Trump is.
Speaker 3: And and so that's why I think the Trump team
Speaker 3: was very happy when the debate was over, because he
Speaker 3: looked at the field and saw the Veke gaining a
Speaker 3: few points, Haley gating a few points, Pence gaining a
Speaker 3: few points, and if they're splintered, that makes it much
Speaker 3: harder for anyone on that stage to credibly go after
Speaker 3: Trump when he's got.
Speaker 4: A thirty forty point lead over the field.
Speaker 3: And I didn't see anything Wednesday night that significantly changed
Speaker 3: the dynamic of the large advantage Trump has.
Speaker 2: You know, sometimes there's a little bit of humor that
Speaker 2: you have in these moments. I'd started my podcast this
Speaker 2: Morning Center by saying, well, it was an incredible vice
Speaker 2: presidential I'm sorry, I mean presidential debate, but that's kind
Speaker 2: of what you're saying in a sense is no one
Speaker 2: really moved up, and it's a significant way or solidified
Speaker 2: or really took away from the group overall to challenge Trump,
Speaker 2: who's still probably fifty points ahead. And again, you can
Speaker 2: lose a lot of the debate if you're the winner,
Speaker 2: if you're the leader, I should say, but you can
Speaker 2: you can lose a lot very quickly if you're the
Speaker 2: If you're the leader and you don't perform really well, Trump,
Speaker 2: not even having to show up his poll numbers, are
Speaker 2: going to probably say exactly the same this next week.
Speaker 4: Would you agree, Yeah, I think that's right.
Speaker 3: I think Trump will continue to have a very strong
Speaker 3: position in the Republican primary. Now I've also said I
Speaker 3: don't think the primary is over. I think everyone that
Speaker 3: is trying to say Okay, it's it's done is looking
Speaker 3: at it from an a historical lens. I think that
Speaker 3: we still have a vigorous primary ahead of us. But look,
Speaker 3: several things could happen in primaries, in primary debates. Number one,
Speaker 3: in a debate, someone can screw something up badly. Someone
Speaker 3: can tank their their campaign. I don't think anyone did
Speaker 3: that Wednesday night. So no one, no one had a
Speaker 3: major gaff, no one had a moment that that is
Speaker 3: likely to be fatal to their campaign.
Speaker 4: That's important.
Speaker 3: Secondly, you can have a candidate that has a breakthrough
Speaker 3: moment that just energizes, raises a mountain of money, soars
Speaker 3: in the polls, and that's happened a number of times.
Speaker 4: I don't think that happened either.
Speaker 3: I think the winners on that stage that I was
Speaker 3: discussing our relative winners and marginal winners. I think the
Speaker 3: three candidates I identified are likely to gain some of
Speaker 3: the polls. They'll gain a couple of points, they'll gain
Speaker 3: some momentum, They'll raise some money. And that's actually the
Speaker 3: money piece is a big chunk of it. You saw
Speaker 3: in their closing statements several of the candidates pitch their
Speaker 3: websites that's a good debate, can raise you millions of dollars.
Speaker 3: And for all of these candidates, most of these campaigns
Speaker 3: are gasping on fumes. And so that's one component is
Speaker 3: they need the funds to make it to the next debate,
Speaker 3: to make it through. Look, there's a reason presidential candidates
Speaker 3: drop out. It's almost always the same reason they go bronk.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's when when campaigns end is when they can
Speaker 3: no longer keep the lights on, they can no longer
Speaker 3: pay the staff, they can no longer travel, they can
Speaker 3: no longer communicate to communicate and politics takes money, and
Speaker 3: and in my view, the fact that other candidates got
Speaker 3: traction hurts the de Santus campaign. Now, I don't think
Speaker 3: the Santus had any bad moments. I think he had
Speaker 3: some good moments Wednesday night. I just don't think there
Speaker 3: was a meaningful gulf between DeSantis and the other candidates
Speaker 3: on the stage. And and in a campaign where you're
Speaker 3: trying to make it a two man race between you
Speaker 3: and Trump, that's not ideal.
Speaker 2: I want to tell you about amazing trip that we
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Speaker 2: You're also on this trip going to set sail on
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Speaker 2: We're also going to have with us a spiritual advisor
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Speaker 2: dot com slash Ben sentater, I wanna I want you
Speaker 2: to pull back the curtain for everybody, because I've got
Speaker 2: a million questions that I want to ask. And I
Speaker 2: was around your campaign in twenty sixteen, but there's very
Speaker 2: few that see what happen when it comes to debate prep,
Speaker 2: when it comes into the days and the hours before
Speaker 2: a debate, the nerves that obviously everyone on stage is
Speaker 2: going to feel in some point, especially in your first debate.
Speaker 2: Take us back to twenty sixteen. How did you prep
Speaker 2: for that first president of debate? Like so many were
Speaker 2: having to prep for last night? And you had debated
Speaker 2: in college, you had debated when you're running for senate.
Speaker 2: But did it feel different when you were running for
Speaker 2: president and that first debate? And what was your goal
Speaker 2: for success as a candidate when you walk up there
Speaker 2: night one of a debate?
Speaker 4: Yeah? Well, first of all, does it feel different? Absolutely?
Speaker 3: And I guarantee you everyone on that stage was unbelievably nervous.
Speaker 3: I'm not someone who feels a whole lot of nerves
Speaker 3: very often, but I distinctly remember that first debate in Cleveland.
Speaker 3: Twenty four million people watched that first debate, and I
Speaker 3: remember before the debate, you go out and you do
Speaker 3: a walk through sort of a practice where they show
Speaker 3: you where your podium is, and you stand on the
Speaker 3: stage and you look up this couple hours for the
Speaker 3: bait starts. And I remember standing there and just.
Speaker 4: Looking up and up and up.
Speaker 3: And it was a big, big auditorium in Cleveland, and
Speaker 3: and it kind of takes your breath away. You're like, Okay,
Speaker 3: they're shooting with real bullets here tonight, right like this
Speaker 3: this is for real. Everyone was feeling that on Wednesday night,
Speaker 3: and and and that It's just it is a huge stage.
Speaker 3: Part of the reason that the debates matter so much.
Speaker 3: So much of a presidential debate is and so much
Speaker 3: of a presidential campaign is driven by the media cycle
Speaker 3: is driven by what the news chooses to cover. And look,
Speaker 3: our corporate media is thoroughly corrupt, and so if you
Speaker 3: have a campaign that you're trying to drive a message,
Speaker 3: it can be maddeningly infuriating when the media is doing
Speaker 3: everything they can to frustrate your message and push the
Speaker 3: message they want. And debates are one of the very
Speaker 3: few instances where you can go around the media gatekeepers
Speaker 3: and go straight to the voters and and they, in
Speaker 3: the course of a presidential campaign, debates have the power
Speaker 3: to change the entire trajectory of a debate, either to
Speaker 3: take a candidate out. Look if you remember in twenty
Speaker 3: sixteen the New Hampshire debate where Chris Christie went after
Speaker 3: Marco Rubio hard and I was standing just a few
Speaker 3: feet away from from Christy and I got to tell you, look,
Speaker 3: it's it may be the only time in my life
Speaker 3: I've been physically present for homicide. I mean, holy cow,
Speaker 3: Christy went after him, and I kind of just sort
Speaker 3: of stepped back.
Speaker 4: I sort of.
Speaker 3: Figuratively pulled out a newspaper and just kind of read
Speaker 3: my newspaper, said, you know, never mind, proceed, I'm not
Speaker 3: saying stop, just just leave me out of this. And
Speaker 3: it was and Christy just he wouldn't give up.
Speaker 4: I mean, he just.
Speaker 3: Kept pounding and pounding, and you know, there were a
Speaker 3: few of us thinking, all right, enough, christ you made
Speaker 3: your point.
Speaker 4: But it was it.
Speaker 3: It changed the course of that debate. In that campaign,
Speaker 3: there are other moments where were a candidate soars and
Speaker 3: and they can suddenly get get energy. You know, if
Speaker 3: you remember one of the early debates where where John
Speaker 3: Harwood from CNBC was blasting every candidate and just being nasty,
Speaker 3: was insulting every candidate, was was drippingly condescending, as I remember,
Speaker 3: left wing reporter, and it came to me and I
Speaker 3: just unloaded on him, and and my point was, look, dude,
Speaker 3: this is not about you, this is not your chance.
Speaker 3: You're a friggin Marxist. You intend to vote for the Democrat.
Speaker 3: You want everyone on the stage to lose, and you're
Speaker 3: just insulting every person here. But you know what, the
Speaker 3: American people and Republican primary voters actually give a damn.
Speaker 3: And and I kind of took his head off, and
Speaker 3: I got to tell you, the impact that our campaign
Speaker 3: was astonishing. I mean we had that night, like as
Speaker 3: the debate was ongoing, suddenly our fundraising exploded. I think
Speaker 3: I think we raised over a million bucks the next day.
Speaker 3: I mean, it was Pete.
Speaker 4: It was a moment.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was the moment.
Speaker 2: I remember watching it and I was sitting there when
Speaker 2: that happened, and I was watching it, and obviously I
Speaker 2: was yelling at the TV. I was there at that
Speaker 2: debate and we were I was back in a green
Speaker 2: room getting ready to do TV afterwards, and it was
Speaker 2: like that is a moment that everybody in the room
Speaker 2: was writing down on their notebook because everyone referenced that
Speaker 2: not on TV like this was a moment in the
Speaker 2: debate that no one was going to forget well.
Speaker 3: And the mechanics of what happens when you have a
Speaker 3: moment that that resonates your fundraising explodes. And I remember
Speaker 3: we went back out on the roads and suddenly our
Speaker 3: crowds that had been three four hundred became a thousand.
Speaker 3: Like it it the impact was almost instantaneous that that
Speaker 3: people are like, hey, I want to see with this
Speaker 3: campaign is about. And so there's very little in a
Speaker 3: campaign that has the potential of a debate to change
Speaker 3: the underlying dynamic powerfully. And last night, as I said,
Speaker 3: I don't think anyone had a disqualifying gaff that killed them.
Speaker 3: I don't think anyone had a dominant breakout. But I
Speaker 3: do think Vivek had the best performance of the night.
Speaker 1: I and is that because we didn't know him.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's easier for people to go notice you
Speaker 2: if they haven't seen you before. Everybody else on stage
Speaker 2: people had kind of seen I thought it was one
Speaker 2: of those moments where it's like, oh, I noticed you
Speaker 2: now in the room, and you were look like I
Speaker 2: think part of it was this. He looked like he
Speaker 2: was genuinely having fun and happy to be there.
Speaker 4: He was having a blast.
Speaker 3: The two people who had the most fun on that
Speaker 3: stage were Vivek and Chris Christy. Yea, and listen, Christy
Speaker 3: has the advantage he's done this before, and it's just
Speaker 3: different when you've done it before. He he was the
Speaker 3: one least scared to be there, and he walked out
Speaker 3: on that stage and his objective is to beat the
Speaker 3: crap out of Donald Trump. And he's just gonna stand
Speaker 3: there and just pound Trump. And that's that's what he's
Speaker 3: decided to do, and he was having fun with it.
Speaker 3: Vivek is smart and he I'm sure he was nervous,
Speaker 3: but he seemed very relaxed. It was actually impressive to
Speaker 3: be to come across as relaxed as he as he did,
Speaker 3: given what surely were the nerves he was feeling. Now,
Speaker 3: you asked about the prep session, So, so everyone prepares differently.
Speaker 3: Often people prepare by They will sit down and do
Speaker 3: a moot and they will get other people to play
Speaker 3: the other.
Speaker 4: Candidates, and that can be it.
Speaker 3: We did a little bit of it at the beginning,
Speaker 3: but that's not actually how we did our principal preparation.
Speaker 3: So fairly early on our debate prep, we would typically
Speaker 3: spend at least a full day, in some times two
Speaker 3: full days preparing for a debate, and we just block
Speaker 3: the time off and not be out campaigning, not doing fundraisers,
Speaker 3: just just be locked at a conference room. And I
Speaker 3: treated debate prep the same way I treated Supreme Court
Speaker 3: oral arguments. So I've argued nine cases in front of
Speaker 3: the Supreme Court, I've done a lot of oral argument preps,
Speaker 3: and sort of like for a Supreme Court oral argument,
Speaker 3: many people do moots where you stand up and have
Speaker 3: people pretend to be Supreme Court justices and ask questions,
Speaker 3: and I've done a lot of those. But actually, particularly
Speaker 3: as I did more and more arguments, I tended to
Speaker 3: favor getting really really smart people in the room and
Speaker 3: then talking through Okay, what do we want to do,
Speaker 3: so let me let me address it from the Supreme
Speaker 3: Court perspective first and then apply it to the debate.
Speaker 3: So for a Supreme Court oral argument, I'd have a
Speaker 3: really smart team of lawyers, Supreme Court advocates, experienced constitutional
Speaker 3: lawyers sit around the table, and I'd be one question.
Speaker 3: I would always say, ask, is all right, what are
Speaker 3: our must raise points? What are the points where if
Speaker 3: when my argument is done and I sit down, I
Speaker 3: have not said I'm gonna kick myself, I'm gonna be
Speaker 3: like you idiot, you had to say this point. And
Speaker 3: so I would go into any oral argument with a
Speaker 3: one pager of typically three to five must raise points
Speaker 3: that I thought were the most important points. They were
Speaker 3: what I wanted the justices to hear and know, and
Speaker 3: I was going to make sure to make them. That's
Speaker 3: part of debate prep figuring out, Okay, what are the
Speaker 3: points that are most important for you to say. Another
Speaker 3: part of debate prep is what's your strategy? And they
Speaker 3: are different times, So I'll tell you how we would
Speaker 3: approach it. We would talk about whether you want to
Speaker 3: how vigorously you want to engage with other candidates on
Speaker 3: the stage, and that depends on strategically and tactically where
Speaker 3: you are. There were debates where we said, okay, we're
Speaker 3: go to mix it up. We're gonna and the analogy
Speaker 3: we always used is we're going to scrape some paint
Speaker 3: off the doors. We're gonna get out in a demolition
Speaker 3: derby and mix it up and take some shots and
Speaker 3: have some shots back and forth, and that there are.
Speaker 4: Times when you need to do that.
Speaker 3: I think that DeSantis camp expected the other candidates to
Speaker 3: be coming at him and mixing it up a little,
Speaker 3: and they didn't. So much like Sherlock Holmes, some of
Speaker 3: what was interesting about the debate were the dogs that
Speaker 3: didn't bark. Very few of the candidates attacked Ron DeSantis,
Speaker 3: and so I think all of the other people on
Speaker 3: that stage view to Santus as their principal impediment, but
Speaker 3: they really didn't go after him directly. What is interesting
Speaker 3: also is very few of the candidates went after Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: It was actually fascinating. Yeah, how little Trump's name was
Speaker 3: said is said in that room. Look the guy's got
Speaker 3: a thirty forty point lead in polls. And yet now,
Speaker 3: look you have some exceptions, Chris Christy, whatever, you know,
Speaker 3: you ask him what time of day it is, the
Speaker 3: time is Trump is terrible? Okay, fine, that's that's what
Speaker 3: Christy's gonna say. But the other candidates, DeSantis, if if
Speaker 3: he criticized Trump, I.
Speaker 4: Don't remember it. It wasn't much of anything Vivek. I
Speaker 4: can't remember any criticism of Trump at all.
Speaker 2: No, he said he was the best president of the twenty
Speaker 2: first century. He was making it very clear from the beginning,
Speaker 2: I'm not here to make Trump supporters hate me.
Speaker 4: I think that's right.
Speaker 3: And a lot of people have speculated that the role
Speaker 3: Vivek is doing is is being something of a stalking
Speaker 3: horse for Trump. That that and and I don't know
Speaker 3: if that's true or not, but he was certainly full
Speaker 3: throatedly defending Trump. Look, I remember back to twenty sixteen,
Speaker 3: and there were portions of the debates early on where
Speaker 3: I made a conscious decision not to go at Trump,
Speaker 3: not to vigorous engaged Trump, and Trump and I early
Speaker 3: in the primary, had a very good relationship, a very
Speaker 3: friendly relationship. It drove the media crazy because they wanted
Speaker 3: me to blast him and I wasn't doing that. There
Speaker 3: were later stages in the debate. Look what came down
Speaker 3: to basically a two man battle between me and Trump.
Speaker 3: Both he and I took the gloves off and began
Speaker 3: smacking the hell out of each other. And it changed
Speaker 3: based on where the race was and who the relative
Speaker 3: players are. I thought it was interesting that almost nobody
Speaker 3: was trying to prosecute a case number one, that they
Speaker 3: have a stronger record than Trump. So Dessatus made the
Speaker 3: case that he had a great record as Florida, but
Speaker 3: he had very little comparative of his record versus Trump's,
Speaker 3: which I expected more of that in the debate, and
Speaker 3: almost nobody other than again Christy made the case that
Speaker 3: they had a better chance of winning than Trump. I
Speaker 3: guess Nikki Haley did too. Yeah, but Haley is running
Speaker 3: for the moderate establishment lane, and so the argument she
Speaker 3: was making was not It wasn't surprising, but I found
Speaker 3: it interesting how little of that we saw on Wednesday night.
Speaker 2: The biggest shock for me was honestly the lack of
Speaker 2: distinguishing one candidate from the other. And that's something that
Speaker 2: you did a very good job of back in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 2: was making it clear who you were as a candidate.
Speaker 2: Walking away from last night, I don't feel like any
Speaker 2: of these candidates really left an impression of how I
Speaker 2: am very different or unique from the others on the stage.
Speaker 2: I mean, there was there were moments jests where it
Speaker 2: was like, for example, where Vivic, you know, proudly raise
Speaker 2: his hand and said he would support Donald Trump as
Speaker 2: a nominee even if he was, you know, convicted. That
Speaker 2: was one of those moments. And then you saw which
Speaker 2: was into meme. It's been all over the internet over
Speaker 2: the last two days of the other candidates trying to
Speaker 2: figure out what they're going to do. And it was
Speaker 2: probably bad timing because for our bad placement for Desantans
Speaker 2: because right next to him, and you see DeSantis look
Speaker 2: to his right, look to his left, and then he's like, oh okay,
Speaker 2: everybody else raised her hand, I'll raise mine halfway too
Speaker 2: as well. That didn't look good for him.
Speaker 3: DeSantis hesitated, and that hesitation was not a good moment.
Speaker 3: That that is, others are going to use that against him.
Speaker 4: The hesitation.
Speaker 3: What I actually thought one of the most interesting moments
Speaker 3: of the debate happened right after that, where Vivet came
Speaker 3: back and said, and he said it to Pence, he said,
Speaker 3: if I'm elected the I will pardon Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: Will you do the same.
Speaker 3: And I got to tell you, I was surprised, and
Speaker 3: I think it was a strategic mistake by every other
Speaker 3: candidate on that stage not to respond hell yes, like
Speaker 3: the answer should have been absolutely. I will pardon Donald
Speaker 3: Trump on January twentieth, twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4: Why.
Speaker 3: Because this prosecution is an abusive power. This is Merrick
Speaker 3: Garland and Joe Biden who don't trust the voters. They
Speaker 3: are abusing the justice system. These indictments are a sham,
Speaker 3: and the voters ought to decide. And so if I'm elected,
Speaker 3: We're going to end this abuse of power. And even
Speaker 3: if a candidate on that stage despises Donald Trump, that
Speaker 3: was a It was a hanging curveball, and I was
Speaker 3: genuinely surprised that nobody took that opportunity because that was
Speaker 3: a moment to shine and nobody jumped on it.
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Speaker 2: I want to ask you one other question about debates,
Speaker 2: because it, I mean, rarely do you get to talk
Speaker 2: to somebody and pull back the curtain. Who's actually done
Speaker 2: this before? If you're leaving this first debate, what changes
Speaker 2: then going into the next debate? If you're if you're
Speaker 2: any of these candidates, now, what do they have to
Speaker 2: do and what could they take away from this? And
Speaker 2: how much do you think the next debate will change
Speaker 2: because of what they weren't two nights ago?
Speaker 3: Well, I think each of the candidates is going to
Speaker 3: come out in a different place. For the candidates that
Speaker 3: didn't gain momentum, they're going to feel a greater urgency.
Speaker 3: Look than the next debate is going to have a
Speaker 3: higher threshold, a higher threshold, a polling to get in
Speaker 3: a higher threshold of donors. I expect the next debate
Speaker 3: to have few candidates on the stage. I suspect at
Speaker 3: least two of the candidates who were there on Wednesday
Speaker 3: night will not be there at the next debate. When
Speaker 3: you're not gaining traction, it impacts every part of the campaign.
Speaker 3: It impacts your large dollar fundraising. Donors are following this,
Speaker 3: and if they think you have momentum, they're excited neger
Speaker 3: to write a check. And if they think you don't
Speaker 3: have momentum, suddenly the money drives up the small dollar fundraising.
Speaker 3: I mean it is an amazing when people are energized,
Speaker 3: when you've got grassroots activists that are really exciting. Look,
Speaker 3: I got to tell you, towards the end of my
Speaker 3: campaign in twenty sixteen, we had online over a million
Speaker 3: bucks a day coming in and it was people were
Speaker 3: just excited. They went to my website, they contributed and it.
Speaker 3: You know, we ended up raising ninety two million dollars,
Speaker 3: which which is still to date the most money any
Speaker 3: Republican has ever raised in the history of presidential prime
Speaker 3: We raised more than George W. Bush or Romney or
Speaker 3: John McCain. When you've got momentum, it rolls aggressively, but
Speaker 3: it unrolls just as vigorously. And so for the candidates
Speaker 3: that didn't have a moment that energized their supporters, they're
Speaker 3: going to find when they're out on the trail their
Speaker 3: crowds are smaller. They go to Nevan and maybe last
Speaker 3: week they had fifty people and tomorrow they have twenty five.
Speaker 3: And that can be a hard look. If you remember
Speaker 3: one hard moment in twenty sixteen, when Jeb Bush went
Speaker 3: his campaign towards the end, he was giving a talk
Speaker 3: and he said and people were not responding and he said,
Speaker 3: please clap, and it was that can be really tough.
Speaker 3: But like, momentum is real in a campaign, and when
Speaker 3: it's with you, it feels great, and when it's going
Speaker 3: away it sucks.
Speaker 4: And and.
Speaker 3: Different candidates from Wednesday night are feeling the good and
Speaker 3: the bad of that, and each debate it kind of
Speaker 3: ratchets up another level. It's sort of like, you know,
Speaker 3: it's sort of like different rounds of March madness with
Speaker 3: the playoff. As it gets to the next level, the
Speaker 3: stakes keep going up and up.
Speaker 2: If you're Donald Trump, do you continue with this? I'm
Speaker 2: not showing up for the debates based on what you
Speaker 2: just saw. Would you show up for the next one
Speaker 2: or would you say hell.
Speaker 4: No, Absolutely, he will skip the next debate.
Speaker 3: I think it's one hundred percent from his perspective, from
Speaker 3: his campaign's perspective, skipping it was a complete win. What
Speaker 3: could have changed it? You remember in twenty sixteen he
Speaker 3: skipped the Iowa debate. Yeah, and he was mad. He
Speaker 3: was mad at Megan Kelly, and he skipped the Iowa debate,
Speaker 3: and then the Iowa caucus happened and I beat him.
Speaker 3: He didn't skip the next debate, but like like, if
Speaker 3: you see an electoral result that that is not good
Speaker 3: for your side, that then you change your path. From
Speaker 3: Trump's perspective, why would he change that? This was it
Speaker 3: was a calculated gamble. If someone had had a breakout
Speaker 3: moment on Wednesday, if someone had sizzled and gained a
Speaker 3: ton of momentum, you could see the Trump team reevaluating.
Speaker 3: If Ron DeSantis had clearly been in a different league
Speaker 3: from everyone else and made clear that he's the principal
Speaker 3: alternative to Trump, and people had rallied behind DeSantis, that
Speaker 3: could have caused the Trump team to reevaluate. If someone
Speaker 3: else had had a moment that just lit every If
Speaker 3: someone had had made an indictment, and I don't mean
Speaker 3: an indictment in the legal sense, but a political indictment
Speaker 3: of Trump had prosecuted the case that they would be
Speaker 3: a better nominee to win in November and lead the
Speaker 3: country than Trump. If someone had really lit it up,
Speaker 3: you could imagine the Trump teams say, Okay, you need
Speaker 3: to get on that stage and fight back against so
Speaker 3: and so. I didn't see anything on Wednesday that's going
Speaker 3: to cause them to reevaluate. And so I think unlessen
Speaker 3: until something changes significantly. My expectation is Trump is not
Speaker 3: showing up at any of these debates.
Speaker 2: Well, the good news is, if you had a bad
Speaker 2: night in the debate stage, twenty hours later, no one
Speaker 2: was talking about you. If you had a good night
Speaker 2: on the debate stage, the bad news for you is
Speaker 2: no one was talking about you afterwards. Because of Donald
Speaker 2: Trump having to head down to Georgia. Not only do
Speaker 2: we have, for the first time in history, a president
Speaker 2: who has an actual mugshot, which they has now become
Speaker 2: probably the most iconic political picture in history. People are
Speaker 2: already selling shirts with it and hats with it. It's
Speaker 2: actually hysterical. But Donald Trump also came out after this happened,
Speaker 2: after he turned himself in, and this is what he
Speaker 2: had to say as he was about to get on
Speaker 2: the plane leaving Atlanta.
Speaker 5: So it's a very sad day for America. This should
Speaker 5: never happen. If you challenge an election, you should be
Speaker 5: able to challenge an election. I thought the election was
Speaker 5: a rigged election. There stolen election, and I should have every.
Speaker 3: Right to do that.
Speaker 5: As you know, you have many people that you've been
Speaker 5: watching over the years do the same thing. Whether it's
Speaker 5: Hillary Clinton or Stacy Abrams or many others. When you
Speaker 5: have that great freedom to challenge, you have to be
Speaker 5: able to otherwise you could have heard dis honest elections.
Speaker 5: What has taken place here is a travesty of justice.
Speaker 5: We did nothing wrong. I did nothing wrong, and everybody
Speaker 5: knows that I've never had such support, and that goes
Speaker 5: with the other ones too. What they're doing is election interference.
Speaker 5: They're trying to interfere with an election. There's never been
Speaker 5: anything like it in our country before. This is their
Speaker 5: way of campaigning. This is one instance, but you have
Speaker 5: three other instances. It's election interference. So I want to
Speaker 5: thank you for being here. We did nothing wrong at all,
Speaker 5: and we have every right angle right to challenge an election.
Speaker 1: That we think is dishonest.
Speaker 4: So we think it's very dishonest.
Speaker 5: So thank you all very much, and I'll see you
Speaker 5: very soon.
Speaker 2: Thank you very much for president with pretty cool, calm
Speaker 2: and collected is Mugshody looked like he was pretty irritated.
Speaker 2: I can imagine why. This to me was one of
Speaker 2: those moments where I'm still in shock by it, honestly,
Speaker 2: like I'm not shocked at what the left has done,
Speaker 2: but when I see this happen. This when I say
Speaker 2: the Democratic Party is dead, they're now communists and socialists.
Speaker 2: This has been in a republic. Ask I still cannot
Speaker 2: believe that the rest of the world, and this does
Speaker 2: make me very angry, is now watching as America is
Speaker 2: losing its way and indicting a former president. How is
Speaker 2: this not one election interference? And how big of a
Speaker 2: fall is this for this country in general?
Speaker 3: Look at Trump is exactly right in what he said there.
Speaker 3: This is blatant election interference. This is partisan and political.
Speaker 3: The demoocrats, both at the federal level and state level,
Speaker 3: hate Donald Trump. They're blinded by their rage and they're
Speaker 3: using the justice system. Listening in this podcast, we've discussed
Speaker 3: at great length each of the four indictments, and so
Speaker 3: you can go back and listen to earlier podcasts if
Speaker 3: you want an analysis of each of them, because we've
Speaker 3: broken them down on a level that you can't get
Speaker 3: on CNN or CBS or ABC or NBC, and all.
Speaker 4: Of them I think are garbage.
Speaker 3: They are partisan and political, particularly when you put it
Speaker 3: in the broader framework, which is that our country is
Speaker 3: more than two centuries old. We've never previously indicted a
Speaker 3: president of the United States, a former president of the
Speaker 3: United States, a major candidate for president of the United States,
Speaker 3: and in less than a year, the Democrats have done
Speaker 3: so four separate times. And you use the phrase banana republic,
Speaker 3: that's what this is. They the Democrats don't trust the voters.
Speaker 3: The reason they're indicting Donald Trump over and over again
Speaker 3: is there afraid he could win November and they want
Speaker 3: to use the legal system to hurt him. And I
Speaker 3: think it is absolutely outrageous. I will say also, look,
Speaker 3: there are a lot of things that you and I
Speaker 3: and many people like about Donald Trump. One of the
Speaker 3: things I like is that he's got enormous guts, and
Speaker 3: he's willing to fight the media. He's willing to fight
Speaker 3: the Democrats. One of the things which I also respect
Speaker 3: is the guy is a marketing and branding genius. And
Speaker 3: I got to say, just the timing of number one,
Speaker 3: you have a debate of all of its rivals, his rivals,
Speaker 3: and he simultaneously does an interview with Tucker Carlson on
Speaker 3: Twitter or on x whatever it's called. That was a
Speaker 3: very strong and effective move. Number Two. The day after
Speaker 3: the debate, he promptly goes and turns himself in and
Speaker 3: has his mugshot released. That was an even stronger move.
Speaker 3: And then number three, he returns to Twitter and his
Speaker 3: first tweet is a tweet of his mugshot, which basically
Speaker 3: broke Twitter. Yeah, that combination sucks all of the energy
Speaker 3: out of every other candidate. And listen, one challenge that
Speaker 3: every candidate in this race not named Donald J. Trump
Speaker 3: faces is the difficulty of driving even ten seconds of
Speaker 3: discussion or narrative, because Trump, by design, seizes and dominates
Speaker 3: the discussion. And I think the last twenty four hours
Speaker 3: are as good an illustration of it as we've ever seen.
Speaker 2: I laugh because the bab one b put up pictures
Speaker 2: of everybody on stage. Last I said, Republicans gathered a
Speaker 2: debate who will lose to Trump in a distant second,
Speaker 2: And then you see what he did and how smart
Speaker 2: he was with this. If you're Donald Trump, and it's
Speaker 2: like plays two big games, wins stupid prizes for the Democrats,
Speaker 2: I'm referencing that, it's like, if you guys keep doing this,
Speaker 2: you seem to just be helping Donald Trump. Now there's
Speaker 2: also many Democrats go, yeah, that's exactly what we want.
Speaker 2: We want Donald Trump to get the nomination. We're not stupid.
Speaker 2: We know exactly what we're doing when we indict him.
Speaker 2: Could this be one of the Democrats?
Speaker 3: Yes, Look one hundred percent, the Democrats want Trump to
Speaker 3: get the nomination. One hundred percent. The corporate media wants
Speaker 3: Trump to get the nomination. They believe he cannot win
Speaker 3: in November. I don't think that's right. I think Trump
Speaker 3: absolutely can win in November. Now I think he can lose. Also,
Speaker 3: we're a very polarized country, and it's clear there are
Speaker 3: a lot of voters that love Trump and a lot
Speaker 3: of voters that hate Trump. And so I don't know
Speaker 3: what happens in a general but I think in the
Speaker 3: in the echosphere, the bubble, that is the left wing,
Speaker 3: that is Democrats, in the media, everyone they know thinks
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is Hitler, and so they want him to
Speaker 3: be the nominee. If he ends up winning in November,
Speaker 3: I have to say the meltdown we saw in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 3: the Rachel Maddows of the world basically having a nervous
Speaker 3: breakdown on television, I think would be utterly dwarfed by
Speaker 3: the reaction if Trump wins again in November. We'll see
Speaker 3: what happens. But I got to say the media desperately
Speaker 3: want him to be the nominee.
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Speaker 2: the year. Last question I got to ask you, Senator,
Speaker 2: is this we're now seeing that they're rushing these prosecutors
Speaker 2: and these people that are coming after Trump.
Speaker 1: This is fourth indictment. They're wanting to pack all this.
Speaker 2: Into the presidential election cycle that we've seen this, it's
Speaker 2: very clear they want to put him in court and
Speaker 2: said on the campaign trail that's election interference by definition.
Speaker 2: Is there a anything Trump can do? Delay and then
Speaker 2: the other question is if he is elected, could he
Speaker 2: still go to jail? How would that work if they
Speaker 2: do find a jury in New York, which is not
Speaker 2: insane idea, or in Delaware or in Atlanta to actually
Speaker 2: say he's guilty, how does that work?
Speaker 1: Now?
Speaker 3: Knowing everything, Yeah, look, we are in uncharted territory. The
Speaker 3: short answer is, nobody knows. This has never happened before.
Speaker 3: I think there is a very real chance we will
Speaker 3: see one or more trials between now and November. And
Speaker 3: I think there is a very real chance, particularly in
Speaker 3: in d C, in New York, or in Atlanta, I
Speaker 3: think we could see convictions. We've talked about how the
Speaker 3: judges and or the juries in those respective places are
Speaker 3: not favorable. I don't expect the convictions to be upheld
Speaker 3: on appeal, but the appeals could take years, and so
Speaker 3: I think there is a very real risk that we
Speaker 3: get to November of next year and Trump will have
Speaker 3: endured a trial and have been convicted, and the matter
Speaker 3: will not be resolved on appeal. What happens when you're
Speaker 3: convicted of a crime, It varies. Sometimes your sentence will
Speaker 3: be stayed pending the appeal. Sometimes it won't. I would
Speaker 3: anticipate that no one would try to incarcerate or no
Speaker 3: one would succeed in incarcerating Trump before the appeal had
Speaker 3: run its course. But look these wild eyed prosecutors. Actually,
Speaker 3: when I said no one would try, as soon as
Speaker 3: I said that, I didn't really believe that, because they're
Speaker 3: brazen enough. I think they would try. I think the
Speaker 3: odds are decent. The appellate courts would say, no, we're
Speaker 3: not going to let Trump go to prison while the
Speaker 3: appeal is pending. We're going to wait to resolve the appeal.
Speaker 3: That's what I would expect. But this is uncharted territory.
Speaker 3: And by the way, there's nothing in the law that
Speaker 3: prevents a candidate for president being incarcerated in jail. There's
Speaker 3: nothing in the law that prevents the Republican nominee or
Speaker 3: the Democrat nominee for president being incarcerated and in prison.
Speaker 3: There's nothing in the law that prevents the sitting president
Speaker 3: of the United States from being incarcerated. Now, the Secret
Speaker 3: Service would have an aneurism. I don't know how that
Speaker 3: would actually mechanically work. If you have the sitting president
Speaker 3: of the United States and sing sing next to murderers
Speaker 3: that's part of why this is such uncharted territory. I
Speaker 3: don't think that will happen, but as I said, I
Speaker 3: do think there's a real risk of a conviction, a trial,
Speaker 3: and a conviction before election day.
Speaker 4: All Right, I want to ask you something, Ben, So
Speaker 4: the mugshot.
Speaker 3: The mugshot is going to be an iconic picture, and
Speaker 3: Trump obviously has an expression of pissed off, angry, badass.
Speaker 3: It's a different approach if you remember different presidential or
Speaker 3: political mug shots. If you remember Rick Perry, if you
Speaker 3: remember Tom Delay. Both of them were indicted, both of
Speaker 3: them had mugshots, and both of them took the same approach,
Speaker 3: which is they grinned, they smiled widely like a political headshot.
Speaker 3: And my question to you is should should Trump have
Speaker 3: smiled or should he have looked as pissed off as
Speaker 3: he was? And I don't think there's an absolute clear answer.
Speaker 3: I have an inclination, but I'm curious what you think.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that exactly how he took that picture
Speaker 2: is exactly why he should. Because one of the things
Speaker 2: that's going viral, and this actually has happened while we've
Speaker 2: been recording, is somebody I know put that picture up
Speaker 2: underneath it all capital letters legend and it's now gone
Speaker 2: to like two hundred and eighty thousand retweets. This is
Speaker 2: going to be on I mean now there's like fifteen
Speaker 2: people since we've been doing this taping this that have
Speaker 2: put out T shirts that say rock Star Legend. You know,
Speaker 2: I stand with him. I think this was the perfect
Speaker 2: look of watch me.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 2: You think it was four years of me trying to
Speaker 2: drain the swamp. You have no idea what's coming for you, Washington.
Speaker 2: I would have played it this way. I think it's
Speaker 2: a brilliant mugshot for him.
Speaker 3: Well, it's why he has the the media and marketing
Speaker 3: and branding instincts that he does. And you're right, it's
Speaker 3: going viral and it's making a heck of a statement.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Legend is the one that just made me laugh.
Speaker 2: I was like, yep, that's the one. They're gonna these
Speaker 2: These will be at the next Trump rally and there'll
Speaker 2: be vendors out there selling this mug shot on every
Speaker 2: T shirt ye everything they can get their hat on,
Speaker 2: and and and by the way, by.
Speaker 3: The way, do you do you remember with the first
Speaker 3: indictment the Alvin Bragg indictment, where the Trump team was
Speaker 3: saying they wanted a mug shot. I think they had
Speaker 3: decided that this that was And and by the way,
Speaker 3: the Alvin Brag one, which seems like a long time ago,
Speaker 3: it was the first indictment. We said on verdict at
Speaker 3: the time, Trump will go up ten points in the
Speaker 3: polls in the primary. And that's exactly what happened. We
Speaker 3: predicted it when the Brag indictment came down, and and
Speaker 3: and I think the Trump campaign was disappointed they didn't
Speaker 3: get a mug shot there, and and so ironically, I
Speaker 3: think they're very happy to have the mug shot now.
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna ask you this question. Another prediction.
Speaker 2: Then, when the polls come out, post debate, post this indictment, mugshot,
Speaker 2: who moves up the most, and does Trump get even
Speaker 2: higher in the poles than he is now?
Speaker 3: I don't know that Trump goes materially higher, although I
Speaker 3: mean he's he's at a pretty dominant position right now. My
Speaker 3: guess is Ramaswami up the most. Wouldn't surprise me to
Speaker 3: see him pick up four or five points. Wouldn't surprise
Speaker 3: me to see Nikki Haley pick up three points. Wouldn't
Speaker 3: surprise me to see Pence pick up one or two points,
Speaker 3: And that probably comes mostly at the expense of DeSantis,
Speaker 3: maybe some at the expense of Tim Scott's, and maybe
Speaker 3: a little bit at the expense of Trump. But I'm
Speaker 3: not sure. I kind of feel like the people on
Speaker 3: that stage are fishing in a different pond than Trump is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no doubt about it. Don't forget.
Speaker 2: We do this show Monday, Wednesday and Fridays, so make
Speaker 2: sure you hit that follow or a subscribe button. And
Speaker 2: on those days when we don't publish. We've never said
Speaker 2: this before, and we probably should have said it more.
Speaker 2: I do a podcast, Ben Ferguson Podcast. Make sure you
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