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Speaker 1: Happy weekend DFS players, and welcome to the Fantasy Crows

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Speaker 1: Football Podcast. I'm your host Bobby Sylvester, and I'm with

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Speaker 1: producer JP Gale as always today our guest is Doug

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Speaker 1: Nori of Daily Fantasy Sports Rankings dot com or just

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Speaker 1: DFSR dot com. Hi Doug, thanks for coming on the show. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: really appreciate you guys having me look forward to talking

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Speaker 1: some week poor football. So how have you done? The

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Speaker 1: first three weeks first of weeks have been pretty great

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Speaker 1: for us for our site. In our projection system, all

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Speaker 1: things considered, you know, I judge it based on total

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Speaker 1: number of slates, so we are are. Slate coverage has

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Speaker 1: been fantastic, especially the smaller ones. There was a couple

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Speaker 1: of main slates where we got a little buzz, but

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Speaker 1: overall the ROI for the first three weeks of football

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Speaker 1: has been about as good as we could imagine it

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Speaker 1: to be. So I'm really I'm really happy with the

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Speaker 1: way things are going. I'll be honest, this is probably

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Speaker 1: the best three weeks I've ever personally had for DFS

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Speaker 1: in terms of NFL. I haven't got that big prize,

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Speaker 1: but I've been consistently up there in a cash. I've

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Speaker 1: been doing a lot more research because it's my job now, right,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's going well, and I hope I can

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Speaker 1: keep up that streak and maybe take down one of

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Speaker 1: those big ones. Well. The best thing about the industry

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Speaker 1: now is that if you are willing to put in

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Speaker 1: and have the time to research it, all of the

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Speaker 1: information is basically there. There's only so many data points

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Speaker 1: you can use for NFL at this point, and that's

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Speaker 1: why you'll see a lot of overlap, even with just

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Speaker 1: different outfits putting out a lot of the same plays,

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Speaker 1: because at this point, the knowledge in the DFS game

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Speaker 1: it is out there if you want it, right and

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Speaker 1: so and if just for like the regular the common

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Speaker 1: person too, like this the guy's like not like us

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Speaker 1: that have the time to research it and the time

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Speaker 1: to spend on it. But that knowledge is just out

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Speaker 1: there that people the things have been written up, but

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Speaker 1: I think there is just there are just opportunities to

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Speaker 1: cash just by doing, you know, just just a modicum

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Speaker 1: of research. You know. And here's the thing. If you're

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Speaker 1: playing GPP and you're not in the positives right now,

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Speaker 1: I mean that happens most people are in that situation

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Speaker 1: and The thing is most people look at it like

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Speaker 1: it's entertainment money, and it's it's a very cheap source

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Speaker 1: of entertainment. It's an absolute blast on the weekends, and

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Speaker 1: it just takes one good week to get back in

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Speaker 1: the positive. So, um, you know, don't be changing your strategy.

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Speaker 1: Just keep doing the research and uh you know, you

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Speaker 1: may end up positive, and if you don't, it's fun anyway.

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Speaker 1: It's it's not that big of a waste of money

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Speaker 1: unless you're playing these uh these huge tournaments and um,

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Speaker 1: you know, not not really being responsible with the way

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Speaker 1: that you're spending. But the DFS is so much fun,

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Speaker 1: it's it's worth it. Oh, it improves my Sunday by well,

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Speaker 1: it's it's appletatously improves it. And then sometimes it goes

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Speaker 1: the other way because I stress both both about our

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Speaker 1: my own bank roll and our own projection system. So

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Speaker 1: I feel like sometimes I'm taking on the user's bankroll

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Speaker 1: and just in my own, uh, in my own psyche.

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Speaker 1: But overall, no, it's been it's been a great start

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Speaker 1: and looking forward to have it keep going. You know,

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Speaker 1: I kind of have the opposite approach. I just feel

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Speaker 1: like if the advice that I give doesn't turn out

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Speaker 1: to be right. I don't think that I'm wrong. I

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Speaker 1: think like, well, I give the best, I give the

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Speaker 1: best possible advice that the NFL players just didn't do

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Speaker 1: their job. I should have you brpr person, because we

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Speaker 1: definitely have some people that I would love to explain

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Speaker 1: that to them, and they just don't seem they don't

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Speaker 1: always want to be able to hear that line of thinking.

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Speaker 1: It's a little but if the more people we can

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Speaker 1: get like that and just say no, man, it's just

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Speaker 1: a it's they're bad, not are bad. So so sometimes

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Speaker 1: people are always willing to hear that. I'm a data scientist.

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Speaker 1: I analyze the numbers, and you know, it's just a

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Speaker 1: matter of putting yourself in the best situations as many

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Speaker 1: times as you can. And if you're a great player,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna win sixty percent of the time and you're

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Speaker 1: gonna lose forty percent of the time. So you know,

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Speaker 1: if you've lost the first three weeks, that doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: you're a bad player. It just means you know, the

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Speaker 1: numbers haven't been your favor yet, and if you keep

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Speaker 1: doing the right thing, they'll turn around. It was funny

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Speaker 1: with the other night. I mean, this is this baseball

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Speaker 1: really but we had like this an unbelievable night in

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Speaker 1: our baseball projections, like two nights ago, and someone in

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Speaker 1: our chat room said, oh, what was different about tonight?

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Speaker 1: I said, nothing, you know exactly, it's been. It's been

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Speaker 1: the same. These are the same inputs. It's just you

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Speaker 1: do the same inputs over and over over the long term,

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Speaker 1: over huge sample size. If you trust what you're doing,

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Speaker 1: then it's going to work. And some nights it'll work

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Speaker 1: out great, some days it won't. But over the long

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Speaker 1: term in the aggregate you'll you'll be okay. So though

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Speaker 1: the long story, yeah, nothing's different. It's just that we

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Speaker 1: just hit on a great night tonight. And that's just

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Speaker 1: that's kind of how it goes sometimes. Well, Doug, let's

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Speaker 1: take a look at our week four picks and maybe

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Speaker 1: some players that we're low on, that we think people are,

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Speaker 1: you know, should fade even though they're going to be

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Speaker 1: highly owned. We'll start at the quarterback position, and I

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Speaker 1: want to talk about these two elite guys right there

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Speaker 1: at the top. Cam Newton and Drew Brees seem to

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Speaker 1: be the best bets for the most QB points, Which

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Speaker 1: one do you think is the one to go within

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Speaker 1: cash games? Yeah, for me, it's kind of not close.

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Speaker 1: In favor of Cam. I think that he is just

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Speaker 1: the clear cash play this week, and I like Breeze

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Speaker 1: from a raw points perspective. But if you look at

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Speaker 1: sort of how their seasons have broken down so far,

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Speaker 1: they're about the same in terms of fantasy points per game.

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Speaker 1: They're right in the range with each other. The difference

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Speaker 1: being though Cam has played again at least two close

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Speaker 1: to elite defenses and Denver in Minnesota, and Breeze has

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Speaker 1: run through the Falcons, the Raiders, and the Giants. The

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Speaker 1: fact that they're even close in terms of overall raw

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Speaker 1: points through those three very different matchups speaks to what

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Speaker 1: our numbers are already saying, which is that Cam is

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Speaker 1: by far and away the play this week. So it's

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Speaker 1: all Camp for me. The floor so high because he

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Speaker 1: can run. He makes up so many points in terms

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Speaker 1: of just the rushing yards and the red zone usage.

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Speaker 1: With him. For me, I think I'm really there's almost

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Speaker 1: no way any sleep that he's available. I'm playing Newton.

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Speaker 1: You know the things about Newton that scare me a

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Speaker 1: little bit, you know, he's been dealing with some minor

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Speaker 1: injuries here and there, and you never know how much

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Speaker 1: that's actually going to affect a quarterback on any given day.

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Speaker 1: But I'm looking at his game logs last year, and

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Speaker 1: he had those four remarkably good games. I mean, he

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Speaker 1: was if you did not have him in your lineup,

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Speaker 1: you had absolutely no chance to win the GPP. He

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Speaker 1: was so good. But if you look at the rest

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Speaker 1: of his games, I'm not going to say he was mediocre,

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Speaker 1: but he was like, yeah, barely a top ten quarterback

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Speaker 1: if you only take those twelve games, and that's that's

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Speaker 1: a big sample size, twelve games. So you know, I

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Speaker 1: definitely think he's a great GPP play, even with his

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Speaker 1: price point, But I'm nervous to pla him in cash.

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Speaker 1: It's mostly just the running that for me, that makes him,

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Speaker 1: that gives him such like I keep saying floor, but really,

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Speaker 1: all in cash I'm looking for is to hit to

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Speaker 1: hit a certain marker, right, And so the guys that

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Speaker 1: are able to hit that are the guys that can

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Speaker 1: produce points in the most different kinds of ways. Right.

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Speaker 1: So like game script won't affect him maybe as much

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Speaker 1: as a guy like Breeze. Now, look, the Saints pass

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Speaker 1: a ton anyway, so it's I'm not so worried about

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Speaker 1: the volume they have to keep. Their defense is so

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Speaker 1: bad that they just are going to have to pass

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Speaker 1: all season basically because they're just they have to score

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Speaker 1: on almost every possession to keep late in the game.

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Speaker 1: But that's that's where Breeze really helps himself, just in

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Speaker 1: terms of pure volume. But you know, the Panthers are

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Speaker 1: beat up in the running game, which means they've had

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Speaker 1: to just sort of rely on him, like he's seeing

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Speaker 1: eleven six and seven rush to have his per game.

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Speaker 1: The Falcons are just such a worse defense than anyone

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Speaker 1: they've really played so far this year. And I don't

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Speaker 1: know if he hasn't gotten a true we haven't gotten

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Speaker 1: to see what he can do against a team that

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Speaker 1: will score, has some offense, but also just has trouble

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Speaker 1: stopping anyone on defense. It's mostly just it's mostly that

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Speaker 1: piece of it for me. Like he's been so good anyway,

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Speaker 1: and now he gets to play against a team that's

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Speaker 1: dramatically worse on defense than basically what he's faced already.

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Speaker 1: And blessed Drew Brees is on the road. He's going

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Speaker 1: to San Diego, which a lot of people don't realize this,

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Speaker 1: but it's a pretty windy stadium, and you know when

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Speaker 1: you're passing. The wind is really the only weather factor

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Speaker 1: that I care about, and that might shake him up

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Speaker 1: a little bit. Now I'm not saying it's going to

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Speaker 1: make him less than a top five quarterback, but I

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Speaker 1: am saying he might not win you a GPP. So

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Speaker 1: I'm actually avoiding both of these plays. And I'm spending

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Speaker 1: down on quarterbacks this week, which I usually don't do.

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Speaker 1: But there's some guys that I like. So let's talk

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Speaker 1: about value at the quarterback of this position. If you're

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Speaker 1: not going for one of these top guys, who are

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Speaker 1: some value QBS like, yeah, I will be interested to

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Speaker 1: hear who you're spending down on, because there's a couple

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Speaker 1: of guys in this range, though for me, I don't

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Speaker 1: consider them safe. I really can't overstate how safe I

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Speaker 1: think Newton is, so I probably I won't say it

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Speaker 1: again because the point of being like super repetitive and boring,

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Speaker 1: But so I don't know if I personally will go

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Speaker 1: down to this range. I think a guy that will

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Speaker 1: be popular to play this week is Rivers mostly be

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Speaker 1: because the Saints defense, the aforementioned defense is such a

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Speaker 1: train wreck that he has a nice price, but his price,

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Speaker 1: I'm a little more interested on DraftKings and Fandel He's

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Speaker 1: the same price as Breeze. I'd rather play. I'd rather

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Speaker 1: play Breeze probably at the same price point. And there

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Speaker 1: other problem with this week is that because there's a

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Speaker 1: Thursday game, obviously, there's obviously that Sunday morning game, which

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Speaker 1: throws things off a little bit, so you lose a

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Speaker 1: couple of players there and buys. The player pool is

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Speaker 1: just much smaller this week. That being said, a couple

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Speaker 1: of cheaper guys that I could go for here. I

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Speaker 1: don't mind Flacco against Oakland, just because his Oakland has

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Speaker 1: some issues in the passing game and passing defense. Flac

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Speaker 1: was a pretty all things considered, a pretty accurate passer,

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Speaker 1: so I don't mind him. I don't mind Kirk Cousins either.

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Speaker 1: He's kind of sort of started to straighten things out

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Speaker 1: last weekends the Giants, though we had talked a lot

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Speaker 1: about it. There was really nothing wrong with him. The

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Speaker 1: Redskins just do a bad job of like media presence

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Speaker 1: and like throwing guys under the bus at the wrong time,

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Speaker 1: so there didn't seem to be any issues with Cousins.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland got passed all over by the Dolphins last week.

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Speaker 1: Cousins could be in a similar situation here, and then

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Speaker 1: I like, I don't mind Matthew Stafford. Stafford the Chicago

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Speaker 1: though they're not good against excuse me, if you look

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Speaker 1: at their yards per game, it appears as if Chicago

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Speaker 1: is good defensively against the past. But if you look

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Speaker 1: at their pacing and some more advanced metrics like DVOA,

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Speaker 1: they're really pretty bad. And so if and Detroit is

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Speaker 1: incentivized the pass because their run game is so destimated,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll talk about some of the running backs there,

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Speaker 1: but so I don't mind. Those are some of the

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Speaker 1: guys I don't mind. Stafford is a little more expensive,

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Speaker 1: but I see him or as a contrarian play just

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Speaker 1: because of the matchup. He named the three big guys

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Speaker 1: for me. Well done, Jo, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, A

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Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins at home. That's a nice price. There's two

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Speaker 1: GPP guys that I really like, Russell Wilson. I like

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson's GPP play any week four out of the

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Speaker 1: sixteen weeks. Last year, he was the top GPP quarterback,

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Speaker 1: and you know a lot of times he's not going

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Speaker 1: to be there, but you never know when it's going

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Speaker 1: to be. He's going to the Meadowlands. They have a

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Speaker 1: great run defense. I think that they're gonna have to

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Speaker 1: pass the ball quite a bit in that game, and

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if you know, that opens up

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Speaker 1: the field for him to scramble and run for fifty

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Speaker 1: sixty yards and maybe a touchdown or two. There's always

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Speaker 1: that chance with Russell Wilson and then the other guy.

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Speaker 1: To me, this one sneaky. I talked about him in

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Speaker 1: the Wednesday episode. It's Matt Ryan at home against Carolina,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of people are gonna be off him.

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Speaker 1: He's a he's a kind of country and play. I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if he's under you know, one point

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Speaker 1: five percent owned. But this Carolina is secondary now that

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Speaker 1: Josh Norman's gone. I'm not impressed by and I get it.

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Speaker 1: They have a great pass rush, but Atlanta also has

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Speaker 1: maybe the best offensive line in the league behind Dallas,

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Speaker 1: and so I think they're going to build to hold

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Speaker 1: that Carolina pass rush, and I think Matt Ryan puts

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Speaker 1: up another real big game, and at that price point,

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Speaker 1: I love them for GPP. Yeah, the Falcons implied total

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Speaker 1: is about its highs. You'll see it from an underdog

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Speaker 1: this week. So it's that Carolina is minus three with

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Speaker 1: butt amount of fifty one. If you think that they're

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Speaker 1: gonna have to pass to keep up, and I think

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Speaker 1: they will. I really like the Ryan play. The Wilson

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Speaker 1: one falls into that Cam territory of guys that can

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Speaker 1: scramble will just always just always have just so much

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Speaker 1: more upside. They rely so much more just on themselves

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Speaker 1: than having to make sure that someone catches the ball.

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Speaker 1: I mean it sounds so like silly and obvious, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: like a guy like Breeze just has to make sure

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Speaker 1: that every pass lands in the correct place. Where guys

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Speaker 1: like Wilson Cam, I mean, do someth degreed like Tannehill

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Speaker 1: runs a lot, So those guys just don't have to

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Speaker 1: worry as much about them. So now I'm totally with

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Speaker 1: you on those, especially from a game script perspective for Atlanta,

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Speaker 1: if you're going to play a little bit from behind,

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Speaker 1: then you always just have a nice chance to sort

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Speaker 1: of hit some upside league game. Yeah yeah, is there

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Speaker 1: another country and play that you're fond of that you

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Speaker 1: think could end up in that million dollar lineup this week?

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Speaker 1: If if Cutler didn't play, I would play Hoyer like

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Speaker 1: he didn't look too bad. He's really cheap on draft kings,

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Speaker 1: and no one's going to play him because it's like Brian,

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Speaker 1: it's Hoyer, and they just probably don't want to play

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Speaker 1: a name like that. He was not too bad last

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Speaker 1: week when he when he was forced to kind of play.

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Speaker 1: They have a couple of weapons there. You know, he

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Speaker 1: ended up throwing fifty passes. It's not out of the

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Speaker 1: Roman possibility. They have to do that again just to

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Speaker 1: play catch up against this team. The price is so cheap.

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Speaker 1: I mean last week he threw for three seventeen and

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Speaker 1: two touches. Again, Cutler might play, and I don't really

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Speaker 1: want to play Cutler if he is playing, But if

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Speaker 1: color were to sit, I think Hoyer is just a

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Speaker 1: fine play against the Detroit defense that got thrown all

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Speaker 1: over last week by Aaron Rodgers. So I don't mind

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Speaker 1: just just totally pumping the position with a guy like him.

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Speaker 1: And then just loading up everywhere else. Doug him starting

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Speaker 1: to think that maybe you hacked into my computer and

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Speaker 1: stole my notes. Brian Hoyer has plugged into my draft

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Speaker 1: kings lineup right now, my main draft kings lineup. He's

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Speaker 1: so incredibly cheap. He's cheap on both sides. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's cheaper than case Keenum and Brian Horror is a

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Speaker 1: guy who slings the ball all over the yard. Like

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Speaker 1: you said, they're going to be playing from behind because

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Speaker 1: that Chicago Bears secondary is still so banged up. Jim

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Speaker 1: Bob Cooter's offense is great, and I like Brian Hoyer

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Speaker 1: a lot to hit value. Maybe he could even go

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Speaker 1: five x this week. He would be crazy. But if

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Speaker 1: he goes five X, that means, you know, for those

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Speaker 1: of you listening, that means his thousands of dollars, So

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Speaker 1: he's six thousand dollars times five five x, So that

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Speaker 1: would mean if he scores thirty points, now that's a

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Speaker 1: huge week. But if he does that, he's definitely going

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Speaker 1: to be in the top GPP lineups. Whoever has him

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Speaker 1: is going to win, and his ownership is going to

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Speaker 1: be so low, you know, say his ownership is one

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Speaker 1: two percent. I'd say there's a five percent chance of

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Speaker 1: him being the guy that's in GPP lineups. So that's

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Speaker 1: a great investment he has, just he has all the

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Speaker 1: contextual factors you would need to hit value really in

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Speaker 1: his favor. And he's actually a guy too that if

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Speaker 1: you were going to use him, I would have no issue,

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Speaker 1: especially let's say we're just really talking about the draft

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Speaker 1: Kings million, where you just need to hit the total

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Speaker 1: nuts out of the box with basically all your plays.

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Speaker 1: I would have no problem even leaving more money on

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Speaker 1: the table, like maybe envisioning him as a sixty five

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars quarterback, let's say, and leaving money on the

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Speaker 1: table to play the rest of your lineup, because one

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Speaker 1: you'll get separation by very few people will make that

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Speaker 1: kind of lineup because people just want to fill up

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Speaker 1: all their salary cap and again in cash games, you should,

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Speaker 1: but for that you don't need to. So if you

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Speaker 1: if you thought he was really supposed to be like

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Speaker 1: a sixty five hundred dollar quarterback, you go and make

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Speaker 1: your lineup with that in mind, with the idea that

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Speaker 1: you'll get separation because very few other people will make

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Speaker 1: a similar kind of lineup. You know. The thing is,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at my rankings, and I'm looking at these

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Speaker 1: salary points Ryan Fitzpatrick sixty nine hundred against Seattle's secondary.

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Speaker 1: I'd rather have Brian Horrior this week. Oh definitely, not

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Speaker 1: even actually, kind of not that close for me, really,

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Speaker 1: I mean, especially if Eric Decker weren't to play for

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Speaker 1: the Jets. But no, yeah, I'm with you. I think

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Speaker 1: Horriors he's miss priced if he's the starter for sure.

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Speaker 1: I have a question though, if Alshan doesn't go, are

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Speaker 1: you pulling him out of your lineups? That would be

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Speaker 1: a hit to him. I mean, Jeffrey hasn't lived one

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Speaker 1: a ton this year. It definitely hurts him. Yeah. Probably, well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I know I'm stumbling on this answer, but probably because

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Speaker 1: it would be very difficult for him at that point

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Speaker 1: to really blow it out of the box without many

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Speaker 1: other weapons. They have a few other I mean, Zach

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Speaker 1: Miller emerged a little bit last week. They have a

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Speaker 1: running back there. I'm sure we're going to talk to

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Speaker 1: talk about in a second, But there'd be they'd be

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Speaker 1: they'd be a pretty hard thing for him to make up,

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Speaker 1: especially just from a defensive coverage aspect because they won't

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Speaker 1: be able to hone in on him and he can't

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Speaker 1: then look at secondary options, so that would that would

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Speaker 1: definitely hurt him. Yeah, I can't make up my mind

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Speaker 1: about it either. I'm watching that one closely because I

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Speaker 1: love al Sean. I love Kevin White too. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk about him in a second, well, I guess after

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Speaker 1: we talk about running back. But I like his situation.

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Speaker 1: If those two guys are going, all right, let's move

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Speaker 1: over to those running backs, and Doug, who do you

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Speaker 1: think the top owned player going to be at the

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Speaker 1: running back position? And are you fading him or playing him?

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Speaker 1: This week? I think that the trunk is probably Melvin Gordon,

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Speaker 1: I would say, going, you know, if you just watched

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Speaker 1: any really, if you watched any part of what the

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Speaker 1: Falcons did to the Saints last week, they just couldn't

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Speaker 1: stop anybody through the on the ground. Well, they really

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Speaker 1: couldn't help anybody at all anyway. But I think Gordon,

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Speaker 1: based on his implied volume, what he's been able to

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Speaker 1: do with the Chargers just a little banged up, especially

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Speaker 1: without Woodhead there, and just the Saints on defense are

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Speaker 1: are such a train wreck that I think you end

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Speaker 1: up seeing him as the He likely is the highest

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Speaker 1: owned running back on both sites, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: I would fade him in cash though. You know, I'm

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Speaker 1: looking at these ownership percentages. We project our ownership percentages

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Speaker 1: now for Fandel and Draft Kings, and this is the

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Speaker 1: oddest week we've had so far this season, because usually

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Speaker 1: there's one or two guys that stand out. You project

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Speaker 1: him at you know, eighteen nineteen, twenty five percent sometimes

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Speaker 1: on Fandel, But this week we have six guys projected

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Speaker 1: at over ten percent, and they're all pretty close. We've

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Speaker 1: got David Johnson and Melvin Gordon right there at the top,

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Speaker 1: just because David Johnson, he's a great matchup, he's a

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Speaker 1: great talent, he's in a good situation. They're gonna be

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Speaker 1: playing from up. I like a lot going on with

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Speaker 1: David Johnson. But yeah, Melvin Gordon, he's the safest play. Now.

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Speaker 1: One player that I think is going to be really

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Speaker 1: highly owned is Jordan Howard just because of that price point.

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Speaker 1: Thirty seven hundred on Draft Kings, fifty six hundred on

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Speaker 1: FanDuel Doug. I know you were thinking about him earlier,

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Speaker 1: So tell me what you're thinking yeah, he's for me

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Speaker 1: in cash I think basically a must play on Draft

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Speaker 1: Kings at thirty seven hundred because well, a couple of reasons.

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Speaker 1: So there's a couple quarters, there's a couple of running

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Speaker 1: backs where injuries have sort of vaulted them to the

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Speaker 1: top of the food chain, but there's still sort of

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Speaker 1: running back by committee issues and Howard to me doesn't

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Speaker 1: strike me as that problem. Now. The Bears are bad

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Speaker 1: and they could be losing. The fact that he was

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Speaker 1: heavily targeted in the passing game last week keeps his

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Speaker 1: floor so high because he's just should be out there

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Speaker 1: as an every down back. I think no matter what

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Speaker 1: sort of happens with the Bears this week, he should

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Speaker 1: say he should hit value for at least his Draft

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Speaker 1: Kings price. I right now have him in cash games

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Speaker 1: on both fandel and DraftKings because of that. So if

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Speaker 1: you compare him to say the I don't know, like

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Speaker 1: Dwayne Washington's of the world, where they may get more carries,

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Speaker 1: there's just isn't They're not guaranteed to be every down

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Speaker 1: guys and every down guys and lose it and possibly

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Speaker 1: losing efforts. And so that's where That's where I think

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Speaker 1: Howard is a value play, and he's just a safe play,

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Speaker 1: and he's not a name. I guess he was like

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Speaker 1: sort of a college running I think with a in

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Speaker 1: the end, he was like sort of a name in college.

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Speaker 1: He's just not that good of a player. But if

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Speaker 1: he's just going to be out on the field the

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Speaker 1: whole time, then there's just a lot of value in that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: Jordan Howard was a fifth round pick, and yeah, I

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Speaker 1: don't love his athletic profile and I don't love his

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Speaker 1: game script, but that price is just too good. Now.

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Speaker 1: My concern is kitdem carry right now. He was held

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Speaker 1: out of practice on Wednesday with his hamstring issue. But

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Speaker 1: if he plays, how many touches is he gonna get?

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Speaker 1: Is that going to hurt Howard at all? I don't

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Speaker 1: think so, only because we saw what can I mean,

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00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 1: it's hard to know, and it's really hard to trust

428
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:08,760
Speaker 1: coach speak on stuff like this because you just don't

429
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,119
Speaker 1: know when it's a totally new situation. The fact that

430
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,359
Speaker 1: he hasn't practiced too much, and the fact that Howard

431
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 1: was just sort of the guy last week when Lankford

432
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 1: was down, that just strikes me as pretty safe, and

433
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 1: really just the price is what makes it safe, right,

434
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,840
Speaker 1: So he doesn't need to He actually doesn't even need

435
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 1: to score a touchdown on the Draft Kings price. He

436
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,040
Speaker 1: just needs to get somewhere in that twenty touch range,

437
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,880
Speaker 1: which I think is totally conceivable between the past game

438
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 1: and the run game, and that's really kind of all

439
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,639
Speaker 1: you need. So even if Carrie were to play, I

440
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 1: just don't see him eating into enough of the volume

441
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 1: from Howard. And I'm with you that he's just not

442
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 1: a very good player. So again I can't overstay that

443
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 1: enough either, like he's not good, but sometimes just your

444
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 1: opportunity trumps that, you know, when we were talking about

445
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 1: five X value with Brian Hoyer, these Bears players are

446
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:57,439
Speaker 1: cheap at Howard's price point on Draft Kings with PPR,

447
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:00,920
Speaker 1: it is not out of the realm for him to

448
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 1: get seven X. I mean, that would be a really

449
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 1: good game. But players like Jordan Howard have good games

450
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 1: like that, I don't know, maybe eight ten percent of

451
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: the time and have a chance at seven X and

452
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 1: ten percent chance at seven X. That is a great

453
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 1: upside GPP play too, and I think and sometimes it's

454
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 1: correct to play the chalk even in tournaments when you

455
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:23,439
Speaker 1: know they're going to be the chalk. And he's a

456
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,439
Speaker 1: guy that strikes me that kind of guy right like

457
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 1: it you can fade him, it's going to be hard

458
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 1: to make up his sort of points per dollar value conceivably.

459
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 1: So it's sometimes just the guy that's the highest one

460
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 1: is also just the best play. And that's crazy to

461
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,960
Speaker 1: say that about Jordan Howard because you know, preseason we

462
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,400
Speaker 1: never would have mentioned like that, would never ever ever

463
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 1: been on the table. But things change so quickly and

464
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 1: rapidly in the NFL and the pricing. When it doesn't

465
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,159
Speaker 1: change quickly enough, then you just need to sort of

466
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,679
Speaker 1: snap it up. Let's talk about some of these other

467
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,720
Speaker 1: backup running backs that are now the starters because everybody's hurt.

468
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 1: Jeric McKinnon, Dwayne Washington, and Charles Sims. How do you

469
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 1: feel about these guys this week? Well, them in and

470
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 1: Washington ones are well, they're different for different reasons, but

471
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 1: they still have other players butting up against their opportunities.

472
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,680
Speaker 1: So Washington still has theo ritic there. I mean, Riddick

473
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 1: was an atrocity last week when they tried to run

474
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:14,199
Speaker 1: him every down. I think at one point, he had

475
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,720
Speaker 1: like eight carries for minus ten yards or something like

476
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,560
Speaker 1: that before he was able to bang off a good run.

477
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 1: But just having those other guys in the mix, it

478
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 1: really lowers their overall expectation. So that's McKinnon McKinnon's actually different.

479
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 1: McKinnon's is more that he's just not going to be

480
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,440
Speaker 1: the goal line guy. With a down and close guy,

481
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 1: they'll probably defer to assiouta there. That's what really buzzes

482
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 1: those two guys off from me. Simms actually falls into

483
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:41,360
Speaker 1: that Jordan Howard category of he is a factor enough

484
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,199
Speaker 1: in the passing game that you can consider him too.

485
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: It's just his matchup against Denverse is not good and

486
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 1: so that's where that's where he sort of loses his value,

487
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:54,120
Speaker 1: is that it's hard to conceive of him really having

488
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: a great game against a still very good Bronco defense.

489
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,679
Speaker 1: So I don't like them all sort of for different reasons,

490
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: I guess, but they're they're all in that valued discussion,

491
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 1: but I just really have a hard time seeing the

492
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: overall upside for any one of them. You know, if

493
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 1: you watch Charles Simms play, and I know this is

494
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: going to sound kind of crazy because he's a backup,

495
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,120
Speaker 1: but he's one of He's definitely one of the most

496
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 1: talented fifteen running backs in football, maybe even top ten.

497
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 1: So I look at that Denver defense and I say, yeah,

498
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 1: that's an incredible defense, but it is price point. I

499
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 1: don't think it's a bad GPP play. I think there's

500
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 1: upside there. He could have a great game even against

501
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 1: a really good defense. And then McKinnon, Yeah, he's not

502
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: going to get the goal line carries, there's no doubt

503
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 1: about that. But with his speed, he could break off

504
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 1: a huge touchdown run, maybe even two of them. And again,

505
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 1: I think he's a solid not a solid GPP play,

506
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 1: but you know, I could see someone using him in

507
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 1: GPP and it working out for them. So I'm not

508
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 1: going to encourage anyone away from McKinnon or Simms. But yeah,

509
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 1: I'm not touching Washington. Yeah I should reference that. I

510
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 1: usually just ground a lot of my thought process in

511
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 1: cash games, and that's why separating those two things for

512
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 1: tournaments different. And the fact was Simms, again, if you

513
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 1: have a guy that just is going to be on

514
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 1: the field of the entire time, then he actually does

515
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 1: have the upside. I just would I get worried about

516
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,640
Speaker 1: him not hitting his floor based on just the defense,

517
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 1: But no, in terms of upside overall, I would rank them,

518
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 1: and I would say in terms of just GPP upside,

519
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 1: I would go Sims, McKinnon Washington because because the former

520
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 1: two can at least catch balls out of the out

521
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 1: of the backfield. And this is what it comes down to.

522
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 1: If you take a risk like putting Jerk McKinnon or

523
00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,640
Speaker 1: Charles Simms in your lineup and it doesn't work out

524
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 1: because their floor is really low. If it doesn't work out,

525
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: that kills your entire GPP lineup. It doesn't matter who

526
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 1: else is in your lineup. If virtually everyone else goes off,

527
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: you have no chance at one of those big prizes

528
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: because you have one bad running back, so take that

529
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 1: into account. But you know, if he does go off,

530
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 1: then you're one of the only guys that has him,

531
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: so you just kind of have to balance it. No, No,

532
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: I'm clearly with you, and it could be really hard

533
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,159
Speaker 1: to stare down those lines, especially when you know you

534
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 1: just want to hit the top point or one percent

535
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 1: of a GPP and when you just get one of

536
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 1: those just total duds, then it can just be some

537
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 1: of the most disappointing things ever and that, but that's

538
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 1: that's what makes these things sort of lottery tickets, is

539
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: that you just have to have every single thing go

540
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: right for you. And the way to you know, reduce

541
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 1: some of that variance is to have more just to

542
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,399
Speaker 1: have more entries in general, to multi enter the tournament

543
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 1: so that you can you can stem sort of the

544
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 1: downside if guys have a bad game, but that's hard

545
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: to do because of bank roll management. So there's no

546
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: real perfect answer for for tournament play. So last week,

547
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 1: Kevin Coleman was the top scoring running back, unbelievably. I

548
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 1: mean I had him ranked pretty high, but for a

549
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 1: guy like that to jump up there as a backup

550
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 1: running back and have the top score, it's really remarkable.

551
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,399
Speaker 1: Which obscure player this week could do that? Well, this

552
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 1: one's way off board, but I don't mind it from

553
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 1: the way he's sort of trending. And it's Spencer Where

554
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: And so if chart car changer West, I have cuchain

555
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: impossible time saying his name. If if West, if West

556
00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 1: were not to play, especially then where would really jump

557
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 1: up for me? Even where? Even if Wes were to play, though,

558
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:07,640
Speaker 1: Where's touches and snaps have been going up each week,

559
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 1: and so at the beginning of the year it was

560
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,959
Speaker 1: almost a fifty fifty split and it's just gone more

561
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 1: and where it's direction every single week. I don't think

562
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,360
Speaker 1: people will be on him because one, they'll look more

563
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,199
Speaker 1: in the cheaper range of running back like with the

564
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 1: Howards of the world that we mentioned before, or the

565
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 1: more expensive guys like Gordon and we didn't talk about,

566
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: but like Lamar Miller falls into that sort of opperation line.

567
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,360
Speaker 1: I love David Johnson too, you mentioned him, so where

568
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: falls into this sort of Noman's land middle ground of price,

569
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 1: which is really really easy to ignore. And when you

570
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: do that one, most people just won't look at him.

571
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 1: I think from that from that point of view, and

572
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 1: if you think that his volume is going in the

573
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: direction of he sees you know, twenty to twenty four touches,

574
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 1: then I kind of love the upside on him, especially

575
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: because I don't think anyone's going to play him at all.

576
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,959
Speaker 1: And so I mean, the Eagles were able to run

577
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 1: a little bit on the Steelers last time around, like

578
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 1: Wendell Smallwood just blew it out of the box. So

579
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: I kind of like where from his metrics are trending

580
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: correctly in terms of opportunity, and I just don't think

581
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 1: any that's a guy that I think easily people will

582
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 1: just skip right over. Yeah, yeah, I one percent agree.

583
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 1: That's the name I was going to say. So I'm

584
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 1: disappointed again because I thought that I had I had something,

585
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: you know, original to myself, and I was telling I

586
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 1: don't remember who we had on the other day, but

587
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,360
Speaker 1: I was telling them we got a review on iTunes

588
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: saying you just agree with people too much. Well, you

589
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 1: know what if they're if they're saying the right place,

590
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 1: what am I going to do? Spencer Ware is that

591
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,360
Speaker 1: guy this week? Now there's one other guy that I see,

592
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 1: and you guys are all going to laugh because you

593
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 1: guys know I hate Matt Jones in fantasy football. But

594
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 1: you know, we saw he had one great week last

595
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: year and it was against a bad tackling team. This

596
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 1: Cleveland Brown's defense was so bad last year that every

597
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: single week we picked on them. Whoever was running against them,

598
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: we picked on them. And I think we forget that

599
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 1: they were that bad against the run because there's been

600
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 1: some other teams this year so far that have been

601
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: worse against the run, but there's a lot of upset

602
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,120
Speaker 1: there any player. Matt Jones is really the only guy

603
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 1: getting the carries in the backfield. Chris Thompson's mostly a

604
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: pass catching back and anytime, like you said, he's gonna

605
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 1: get twenty carries against a defense like that, I don't

606
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 1: care if he's number twenty seven ECR, he's a chance

607
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:18,399
Speaker 1: to be the number one guy. I'm not going to

608
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: bank on it. I'm not gonna play him in any

609
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 1: of my lineups. But if you're looking for a home

610
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: run that's you know, nice and cheap, Matt Jones could

611
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 1: be your guy, and he's gonna be low owned because

612
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 1: he's Matt Jones. This is the This is the because

613
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 1: when you get this far into the NFL, it gets

614
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 1: easy to sort of do a stars and scrubs approach

615
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 1: to your lineups because you'll have some of these other

616
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 1: cheaper there's some wide receivers that help you with this

617
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,360
Speaker 1: this week. Also because you can save at other parts

618
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: of the lineup. This middle tier of player is the

619
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: easy and you know he falls into that spencer were

620
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,159
Speaker 1: category of just like pricing, They're so easy to just

621
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 1: skip over because you just don't need to play them,

622
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: right Like so because you don't need to play these

623
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: guys because you've already found your your value in the

624
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 1: Jordan Howards of the world, this price to her loss

625
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 1: right over and because of that you get separation on Like,

626
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 1: you made a great point. He just is the guy

627
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: in the backfield. And if he's just going to be

628
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: the guy and they're gonna get up a little bit

629
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 1: in the game and just try to run the clock down,

630
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 1: then he kind of falls into that category of upside

631
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 1: for the two reasons one volume and two no one's

632
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 1: going to play him. So yeah, now like this this

633
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 1: is the easiest year to skip and it's and it's

634
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 1: the one that you can probably take the most advantage

635
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 1: of this kind of at this time of the year.

636
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,400
Speaker 1: All Right, Doug, we know it comes down to volume

637
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 1: so much. So who's going to get the most carries

638
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 1: this week the running back position? I mean it's hard

639
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: to I would say probably either Melvin Gordon or Lamar Miller.

640
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 1: But I think the guy that most people will skip

641
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: over is la Garrett Blunt. La Garrett Blunt's what they've

642
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: used him without Brady and sort of just being so

643
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: crazy banged up a quarterback at this point, to the

644
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 1: point where if you're discussing playing Julian Edelman at quarterback,

645
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 1: then you know you have pretty pretty significant problems. But Blunt,

646
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 1: I'm looking it up now. Blunt leads the NFL in

647
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 1: total rushing attempts this year, which I don't think many

648
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: people know. He has seventy five rush downs, the Miller's

649
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: second with seventy four, and then it's Elliott and now

650
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: there's a pretty steep drop off after that. I think

651
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 1: Gordon is in contention if the game plays out for him,

652
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: and because there's so much pace, I think Miller because

653
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: the Texans have just said, we're just going to hand

654
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: this guy the ball every single time, and that's just

655
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: going to be what we paid for. But Blunt is

656
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: the guy that I would say is a dark horse

657
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: to have it because the Patriots are so banged up,

658
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 1: they don't they have very few other options, and they've

659
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 1: just shown their hand with this. They're happy to just

660
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 1: run the ball as much as possible. So he's kind

661
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 1: of my sneaky guy to get the carries. Doug, It's

662
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: really funny that you think he's a dark horse guy,

663
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 1: because I have him as my number one guy to

664
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: get the most carries, and it's because he's been getting

665
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 1: so many. And who's going to be their quarterback? Garoppolo

666
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 1: is not coming back. I don't care what they say.

667
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 1: He's not coming back. And even if Britstett comes back,

668
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 1: which is you know, it might not happen. He's saying

669
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: that he's going to, but it might not happen. Even

670
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: if he comes back, Blunt's going to get twenty five

671
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 1: carries at least at least and if he doesn't come back,

672
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: then what do they do. They just put Blount behind

673
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: the center and let him run every single time. I

674
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: don't know if they'll be able to stop him. That

675
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 1: offensive line is good and Blount's just a wrecking ball,

676
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: but he's gonna get so many carries. And I'm afraid

677
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: of of Lamar Miller this week because he's going up

678
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 1: against Tennessee was a really underrated defense and especially their

679
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 1: run defense. They've got Drew Casey, who is he's a star.

680
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 1: Nobody knows him, but he he is a total star.

681
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: And I don't think they're gonna hand the ball off

682
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 1: because I think O'Brien smart in uh In Houston. I

683
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna run the ball that much. I

684
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 1: think they're gonna throw it. So to me, the other

685
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 1: guy is Ezekiel Elliott. I love the game script. They're

686
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: playing against the forty nine ers. They're probably gonna be up.

687
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,000
Speaker 1: They've been feeding this guy the ball so much, and

688
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 1: I think it's going to continue. Dallas always does that.

689
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 1: They always give their running back the ball so much,

690
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: and uh, what's the clueless how you're supposed to deploy personnel?

691
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 1: But no, I've like, I love that Elliott call and Nodz.

692
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: They're gonna just they're gonna need to They're gonna need

693
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 1: to run it. So those are the top three guys, Blunt, Miller,

694
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: and Elliott just in terms of just overall until raw production.

695
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: But now I'm worth you on Elliott if anything, our

696
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 1: system we're probably just a little bit low on him

697
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: in terms of twenty two and a half carries right

698
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 1: with Miller. Yeah, those are the three guys. But those

699
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 1: teams have just shown their hands. They just that's what

700
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: they're going That's just their plan, right, That's just what

701
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 1: they're going to do. So on our last episode, I

702
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: made a bold prediction that Elliot's going to have the

703
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 1: best running back performance of any running back so far

704
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 1: this year, one eighty for two touchdowns. And I have

705
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 1: him in both my lineups FanDuel and Draft Kings. And

706
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 1: if you're listening and you haven't played DFS before, hop

707
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 1: on over to DraftKings build your first lineup. There's over

708
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: a million dollars in total prizes that are up for

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00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,239
Speaker 1: grabs this weekend at DraftKings dot com, the destination for

710
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 1: one week fantasy football that means no season long commitments.

711
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: Play when you want with the players you want. Just

712
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: pick your contest, draft your team, and follow the action live.

713
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Speaker 1: Use the code carry at DraftKings dot com now and

714
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:00,160
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715
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716
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 1: million dollars in total prices this weekend only at DraftKings

717
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 1: dot com. Lgbildy restrictions may apply see set for details.

718
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 1: Do Let's move over and talk about wide receivers now.

719
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 1: Is he Antonio Brown worth it at that price? Yeah?

720
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: I think so. When we were talking about guys that

721
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: just stand out from the pack in terms of how

722
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: their teams use him, He's the example at wide receiver

723
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 1: and then there's maybe one other player, and then there's

724
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: a pretty steep drop off after him. He's in more

725
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: than thirteen targets a game. There's nothing different about their team.

726
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 1: They don't have a lot of other wide receiver options.

727
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: I know they have Levan Bell back this week, but

728
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: and he's a target sort of guy and out of

729
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 1: the backfield. But so was the Angela Williams. So I

730
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: don't really see. And they're not going to play those

731
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 1: two guys together. I don't think at the same time

732
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 1: they might. I guess there was a note about Bell

733
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 1: maybe playing in the slot, but overall, the long along

734
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 1: with the answer to say, yes, I think he's worth it.

735
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 1: He's especially worth it on fandel where the pricing isn't

736
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: separated so much, but on the draft kings that they'll

737
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit closer because it's harder than me.

738
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: I think it's just general their pricing is a little

739
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 1: tighter considering the way you need to set up your lineups.

740
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 1: But yes, I think he is. He's just he's just

741
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,239
Speaker 1: so much. They look at him so much more than

742
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:12,479
Speaker 1: most other guys in the league that it's really just

743
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 1: hard to replicate that I think the opposite. I think

744
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: he's an absolute must play on Draft Kings because they're

745
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 1: full PPR and you know he's gonna get so many

746
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: targets on fandel. I can understand if someone's not playing him,

747
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 1: but I'm playing him in almost every one of my lineups.

748
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: And the reason why he's at home, him and Big

749
00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: Bennett Home just have something going on. I don't know

750
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: what it is, but I refuse to fade him when

751
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: he's at home unless you know they're playing like Josh

752
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: Norman or Chris Harris Junior, and you know it's it's

753
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: not as good of a matchup, but he'still probably gonna

754
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 1: put up great points in that matchup, just not good

755
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: enough for his salary. So yes, I think Antonio Brown

756
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: is absolutely worth it. No, No, I mean it's you

757
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 1: can't argue with it. And last year, I mean my

758
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 1: avoiding him on DraftKings thing is probably overstated. It's he's

759
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 1: a great play. He's the clear tippy top wide receiver

760
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: one in fantasy. And it's, like I said, it's not

761
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: really that close because other teams, other target hogs from

762
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 1: previous years, their teams have either shifted in a way

763
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: where they simply don't need to be that guy or

764
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 1: there's some injury concerns with them. But Brown is the

765
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 1: one guy from that upper echelon of early season, and

766
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 1: I would call that like Brown, Jones, Beckham, and maybe

767
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: de Andre Hopkins, those are kind of the four going

768
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 1: into the season. He's really the only one left of

769
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 1: that group that you can trust for the for the

770
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 1: to get maybe in that thirteen to fourteen targets per

771
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 1: game range, which is an insane number. So no, I'm

772
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: totally with you. He's he's in a class by himself

773
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 1: when when it comes to that kind of when it

774
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 1: comes to looks, yeah, yeah, if Jones ever gets healthy,

775
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 1: I'll put him right there. But we just haven't seen

776
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: Jones at one hundred percent this year, and so Ryan's

777
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 1: been spreading the ball around THEE. I wouldn't put Jones

778
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 1: in that territory back. I wouldn't actually even go back

779
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 1: to them because the Falcons just have some other options

780
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 1: now looks a new So this is the thing that

781
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 1: kind of burns off Beckham too, is that no longer

782
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 1: it was before it was Beckham and then Rubam Randall,

783
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: who was awful. Now it's Beckham, Sterling, Shepherd and CRUs

784
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: Now is Jones, snow Tammy and two guys out of

785
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 1: the back two guys out the backfield that can receive.

786
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 1: So I think it's more of I don't think I

787
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 1: would have a hard time ever putting Jones even if

788
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 1: I saw like a fourteen target game for him, which

789
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: I don't think you're really going to see again, I

790
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 1: would still have trouble putting him back into the class

791
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 1: because they just have other options the Steelers don't. The

792
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: Steelers why receiving corps is sort of like what like

793
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 1: it was last year, and it was like what it

794
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:25,359
Speaker 1: was like for those other guys last year where there

795
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 1: were just one other options. So that's where I don't

796
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 1: think those other guys ever creep back. I mean, Hopkins

797
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: has fuller now, so these are guys I don't think

798
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: they're going to creep back into that territory. That's a

799
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 1: really great point, Doug. Now, these are some of my

800
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 1: favorite players to talk about. If you're punting one of

801
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: your wide receiver spots, who's the dirt teap option that

802
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 1: has a lot of upside? Well, I think one guy

803
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:48,400
Speaker 1: that is going to continue sort of on his trajectory

804
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 1: of targets as Cole Beasley, because with Dez out, I

805
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: mean likely out. I guess he hasn't been officially ruled out,

806
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 1: but it just really doesn't seem like he's going to play.

807
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 1: Beasley was already leaving that team in targets with Brian

808
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 1: on the field, and he's not a guy where other

809
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:05,240
Speaker 1: teams will scheme against. So sometimes you have trouble putting

810
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: supplanting a new wide receiver one because before they were

811
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 1: getting this team's second best coverage. Beasley out of the

812
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 1: slot isn't going to run into those sort of problems,

813
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,800
Speaker 1: and so I just like him. He's really cheap on draftings.

814
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: If you're looking at PPR a guy that has a

815
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 1: chance for like double digit catches in that three thousand range,

816
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:23,439
Speaker 1: for me, it's Beasley, and then the other guy's Tarrell

817
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 1: Prior Prior for kind of different reasons, but they he's

818
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:32,239
Speaker 1: still coming very, very cheap. The Browns kind of said, well,

819
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 1: we don't really have any other players, so I guess

820
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 1: Tarrell Prior is going to kind of try to do

821
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: everything for us. Now they throw a couple of passes,

822
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 1: maybe run the ball a couple of times, like they're

823
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,319
Speaker 1: treating like how Ohio State used to treat him sort of.

824
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 1: And if that's if he's just going to see the

825
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: ball in every facet of the game out of the

826
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 1: wide receiver, I would have his draftings price is kind

827
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: of almost a must play for me. But I would

828
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 1: even consider him up to seven thousand on Fandel. So

829
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 1: those are kind of the two cheaper guys that I

830
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 1: that I like. This week. I have two different options.

831
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 1: One of them is Undraftkings because of the PPR, and

832
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 1: it's Steve Smith. He's just getting so many targets. We've

833
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 1: seen him have huge games. He's playing angry right now

834
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,839
Speaker 1: because of all the trash taught going on, and he's

835
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 1: going up against that Oakland defense. So Steve Smith, I

836
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 1: think he could absolutely explode, maybe get himself ten eleven receptions.

837
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 1: And at his price point, he's forty five hundred undraft Kings,

838
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 1: that's real cheap. And then over on fan duel, where

839
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,760
Speaker 1: you know it doesn't get as cheap. You've got Bustard

840
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 1: Perriman's in there at five thousand, and we know he's

841
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 1: one of the fastest wide receivers in the NFL. He's

842
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 1: been getting himself plenty of snaps and it's trending up.

843
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 1: Where does the more he learns the offense. But you know,

844
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: I could see this being a scenario where he catches

845
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 1: two real long touchdown passes, and if that happens, he

846
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 1: could be right there in the top five. He's got

847
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 1: that kind of upside. Once again, I'm not expecting it

848
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 1: to happen, but I think he's a killer GPP play

849
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 1: at that price. Well, I mean just at the point

850
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 1: of honestly, well one is Perriman's a guy that I

851
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 1: started to look at and make sure he's correct in

852
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 1: our system. That is why I love talking as much

853
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 1: as possible to other people about fantasy football, because it

854
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:02,359
Speaker 1: just you just learned so much more about, you know,

855
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: reading or just discussing stuff. So Perryman's a guy that

856
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: has was sort of off my radar, but I went

857
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 1: back in double check that were correct on him. Smith

858
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 1: was a guy I actually wrote up for our wide

859
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 1: receiver value column this morning, So I'm totally in locks

860
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 1: up with you on him. Where if he's you know,

861
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 1: I think he's been seeing somewhere in that nine to

862
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: ten targets per game. He's still very cheap. So I

863
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:21,839
Speaker 1: love the Smith thing, and I'm glad you mentioned Perry

864
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:23,239
Speaker 1: Bink so I know it can go back and double

865
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 1: check and make sure we're correct on a guy like that,

866
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 1: which we might be love. So now I'm robber right

867
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 1: with you on those guys. Oaks. The Oakum's defense is

868
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 1: no good. Yeah, it's it's real, really no good. Khalil

869
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 1: Max got to step it up. I thought he might

870
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 1: be the second best defensive player in the NFL this year,

871
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 1: and he has not been very good. Well they shut

872
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: down um, well, they shut down ten I love Mariota

873
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 1: last week and that just was a huge crash and

874
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,680
Speaker 1: burn scenario. But um so, it's like a little hard

875
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 1: to evaluate. This is why even the early season, it's

876
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 1: tough to totally tell about what a team is going

877
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: to be because you know, they didn't look bad against Mariota,

878
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 1: but that could just be a Mariota and personnel issue

879
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:00,320
Speaker 1: more than it is a you know, a could to

880
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,919
Speaker 1: Oakland for shutting them down. So I think I'm still

881
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 1: willing to say that they're they're bad. But whenever you

882
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 1: have a good game against really anybody throws it into question,

883
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 1: I'm still totally fine. Targeting the Baltimore guys though this week. Yeah,

884
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,840
Speaker 1: let's look at exclusively draft kings for this question, because

885
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 1: we're gonna be talking about PPR which wide receiver And

886
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 1: I'm going to make this besides, Antonio Brown is going

887
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 1: to end up with the most receptions this week, well

888
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 1: the top, So the top. I was mentioning with Brown

889
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,240
Speaker 1: that there is another player in the sort of target

890
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 1: range as him, and that's Mike Evans. So Mike Evans

891
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 1: is just a tick behind him in terms of overall receptions.

892
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 1: It's funny about him. So he plays Denver this week,

893
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 1: which is not good, but there's few other players that

894
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 1: are getting the sort of looks and they've shown that

895
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 1: whether or not they're winning or losing, they will just

896
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 1: continue to throws him as much as possible, like he

897
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 1: had hit an eighteen target game, and there's very very

898
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 1: few other guys in the NFL that have that kind

899
00:39:57,320 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: of like that kind of just number of looks that

900
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 1: they'll see in a game. So it's hard to say

901
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 1: that he'll have the most. But it's also sometimes hard

902
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 1: to argue with just what a team is planning on

903
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 1: doing and there in the box ideas just to throw

904
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 1: Evans the ball over and over and over again, whether

905
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 1: they're winning are losing, and if that's going to be

906
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 1: the case, and it's kind of game scripts out the window.

907
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 1: So he's up there. I don't think many people will

908
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 1: play him. It's probably not correct to do so against Denver,

909
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't be It wouldn't shock me for him

910
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 1: to just be in that upper group again. And again,

911
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 1: I'm also talking mainslate. There's a couple of issues here

912
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 1: with you know, whether or not we talk Thursday game

913
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:34,040
Speaker 1: with AJ Green or like that early game with t

914
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 1: Y Hilton. So if I'm speaking speaking totally off mainslate,

915
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: I would say a guy like Evans just because the

916
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 1: team is clear about with how they want to use him. Yeah,

917
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 1: I've only been talking about mainslate. I even forgot about

918
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 1: those games a little bit. But the guys, to me,

919
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 1: it's it's the same guys as always. DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones,

920
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 1: Alshan Jeffrey, if he plays, Brandon Cooks, Mike Evans, and

921
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 1: then there's one other guy that really stands out to me,

922
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 1: and it's Calvin Benjamin. Calvin benjam at Atlanta, I think

923
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:03,359
Speaker 1: that is going to be maybe the top scoring game

924
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 1: of the week. We'll talk about this a little bit

925
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 1: later in stacks. But you know, he doesn't really have

926
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 1: any competition for targets there. You look at the guys

927
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 1: behind him, Teddy Gains still getting the second most snaps.

928
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,920
Speaker 1: Devin Funches is a huge disappointment. I'm mad about it

929
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:18,920
Speaker 1: because that was so high on him. I told everyone

930
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 1: go get Devin Funches, and I was just so wrong.

931
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 1: All the reports on him were wrong. He's not ready.

932
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 1: I don't know if he knows the playbook. He's not

933
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:29,879
Speaker 1: running routes right, There's so many there's so many things

934
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: going on with him. But Calvin Benjamin is the guy there.

935
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,000
Speaker 1: I know he got his zero last week, so that

936
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 1: means a lot of people are going to be often.

937
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 1: But it's a perfect matchup. There's gonna be a lot

938
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 1: of points scored. And I wouldn't be surprised at all

939
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: if Calvin Benjamin grabs himself thirteen receptions. It's funny. I'm

940
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,320
Speaker 1: with you. I love him as a play I would

941
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 1: say that the one target last week is a huge

942
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:52,360
Speaker 1: is a red flag for me, right, so, because you

943
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 1: will just not see that out of really any elite receiver, Like,

944
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 1: there's no way any of the other guys that we've

945
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 1: listed so far we'll ever just see one target in

946
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 1: a game and like that. So when it does, it

947
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 1: could be an outlier, but it also could be a

948
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 1: sign that something is wrong. Now they there's no injury

949
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 1: thing and the coach has come out and said, it's

950
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:14,800
Speaker 1: my bad that he only got one target. I'm not

951
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 1: sure exactly how that works. Minnesota is a good defense,

952
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 1: so you can factor that into it as well. But

953
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 1: the fact that they were playing from behind and he

954
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 1: still only saw one target, that's my only red flag

955
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: with him. So again, I'm with you. I love him.

956
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 1: He was on my list of guys that want to discuss.

957
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 1: He's a value because I think people will look at

958
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,359
Speaker 1: that game log and be worried about it. But whenever

959
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,319
Speaker 1: you see sort of that outlier before we talk about

960
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 1: with baseball, sometimes if you see a pitcher who's great

961
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 1: go out and pitch two innings and just get lit

962
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: up and not strike anyone out, it raises the red

963
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 1: flag because you're like, oh, maybe he's injured, maybe there's

964
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,320
Speaker 1: something else going on. That's sort of where I stand

965
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,280
Speaker 1: with Benjamin now. So I lowered his projection just because

966
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 1: it's I can't trust that he's a double digit guy.

967
00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 1: That being said, he's definitely the clearest bounce back of

968
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,280
Speaker 1: any other player this week. Like if he saw twelve

969
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 1: to thirteen touches, it wouldn't shock me at all. If

970
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 1: he was in the million dollar lineup, it wouldn't shock

971
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:08,280
Speaker 1: me even a little bit. And I love pairing with Newton.

972
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 1: How do you like him compared to those other two

973
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 1: breakout wide receivers, Marvin Jones and Stefan Diggs this week?

974
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: I would probably take him because of game script over

975
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 1: both of those guys. Jones has been a huge conversion

976
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 1: guy like his it really doesn't It's not likely that

977
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 1: he keeps up his yards per catch. I know he's

978
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 1: I know he's a deeper outrunner, but his yards per

979
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: catch is so much higher than like the next closest

980
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 1: guy that I'm a little worried that there's a regression

981
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 1: coming from him. There's some talk about golden take anny

982
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 1: more targets. Again, it's hard to tru trust coach speak,

983
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: but there's a couple of signs that I get a

984
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 1: little bit worried about him. Diggs, I just don't know

985
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 1: if he's going to He's definitely a clear possession guy,

986
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 1: and they don't have a ton of other receivers. They

987
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 1: also just don't run a ton of plays, and they

988
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 1: are willing to just run the ball when possible. So

989
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,839
Speaker 1: of the three guys, Benjamin to me has the most

990
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,760
Speaker 1: upside and maybe even the highest floor, though my concern

991
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:03,640
Speaker 1: is the one target is definitely a concern for me.

992
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 1: I'll say this, if al Shan Jeffrey is out, I'm

993
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 1: taking Kevin White for receptions over Antonio Brown. I'm not

994
00:44:11,880 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 1: even joking. Oh, I know that that's really going out there,

995
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 1: But look at Chicago's depth chart. They're gonna have to

996
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 1: throw the ball so much this week. He had fifteen

997
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 1: targets last week. He's in the top fifteen in the

998
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: NFL for targets, more targets than al Shan Jeffrey. And

999
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 1: all they have behind him is Eddie Royal. They don't

1000
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: have anybody else. Jeremy Lankford's a pass catching back. He's out.

1001
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 1: Jordan Howard. I don't know what he's going to do.

1002
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 1: But Kevin White I would not be the least bit

1003
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: surprised if he got himself eighteen nineteen targets this week.

1004
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,760
Speaker 1: If al Shan's out, it's interesting. Well, so our system

1005
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 1: is modeled off off of targets just in general, so

1006
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 1: we do everything based off targets an opportunity and hope

1007
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 1: that people will sort of regress to their historical averages.

1008
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:55,280
Speaker 1: It's hard to know that with young guys like rookies.

1009
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 1: I'm with you on the volume, I think because I

1010
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:00,920
Speaker 1: didn't realize actually he was so high. We had him

1011
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: for eight targets projective, which I'm fine with it. The

1012
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: Jeffrey is around and I think that's generally correct. I

1013
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 1: kind of still was not totally aware of how high

1014
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:09,239
Speaker 1: he was in terms of just the in terms of

1015
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 1: the league, in terms of targets, but yeah, I would

1016
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:14,840
Speaker 1: probably go to if Jeffrey was out, I would probably

1017
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:16,839
Speaker 1: bump him to like twelve and a half targets and

1018
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 1: that would be good enough for him to be in

1019
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 1: all of our optimal lineups. So yeah, I'm with you

1020
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:22,719
Speaker 1: that this is where you need to evaluate news up

1021
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 1: until the last second. You just can't set a line

1022
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 1: up on Thursday and just hope it all works out

1023
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 1: for you, because because guys like this, like one one injury,

1024
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 1: like Jeffrey cascades to multiple different players and it would

1025
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 1: just even be sort of game script independent. Well, they

1026
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 1: would probably just getting killed anyway, so they'd be throwing

1027
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:39,800
Speaker 1: more and more. And you know, I love that, especially

1028
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 1: if a Horrier has shown that he wants to throw

1029
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 1: to him. Yeah, Whit. It's definitely a guy that wasn't

1030
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 1: on my radar as much, but probably would have crept

1031
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 1: up in that situation where you mentioned with Jeffrey Man

1032
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:51,280
Speaker 1: Horrier loves him. It was like those two were playing

1033
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,399
Speaker 1: by themselves and nobody else mattered. He was just throwing

1034
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,239
Speaker 1: him the ball so much. Doug, let's fly through tight

1035
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:58,879
Speaker 1: end and defence and then we're gonna take a quick

1036
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 1: look at Stacks before the end of this episode. Is

1037
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 1: Gronk actually gonna plays he's startable in DFS. I don't

1038
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 1: think so. The Patriots just aren't the same team. I

1039
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 1: don't even if it doesn't matter for me if he

1040
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:12,839
Speaker 1: plays or not, I don't really want any part of it.

1041
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,799
Speaker 1: And you just can't try this is I was going

1042
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 1: to mention this with Blunt and I will mention it.

1043
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 1: It kind of holds true with Gronk too. The reason

1044
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:24,040
Speaker 1: I don't have Blunt as the highest overall Carrie's guy

1045
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 1: is maybe a little like Belichick PTSD on my part,

1046
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 1: where where they you just can't you just don't think

1047
00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 1: you can't know that the thing they did last game

1048
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 1: or even the previous three games was the thing they're

1049
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 1: going to do this game. And that's the only reason

1050
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 1: I don't want to take Blunt up to the same

1051
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 1: level as those other guys. But Gronk, I just don't

1052
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 1: see a game where they need to overuse him to

1053
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:48,000
Speaker 1: the point where it would be worth it. In DFS,

1054
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 1: right like, they've come out well beyond anyone's expectations with

1055
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 1: being three and oh this is way more I think

1056
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 1: they ever thought was possible without Brady. They're playing with

1057
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 1: house money at this point. Why risk Why go out

1058
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 1: and have it for team target game for him? Right Like,

1059
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 1: I just don't see why you would even do it

1060
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 1: even if he was healthy. So that the long story

1061
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 1: short is no, I do not think he's worth it

1062
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 1: the play. I wouldn't play him really in any scenario.

1063
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:12,560
Speaker 1: I don't even think the upside is even there for GPPs,

1064
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 1: and I rarely say that with anyone's GPP because you

1065
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:17,440
Speaker 1: can make the case with anybody. I have an almost

1066
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 1: impossible time laying out the list of scenarios that where

1067
00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:23,879
Speaker 1: it works out for Gronks, So I think I would

1068
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 1: say no. Now, there's some real nice value plays at

1069
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 1: tight end. Dennis Pittas down at fifty four hundred and

1070
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: we have him number five on ECR even though he's

1071
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 1: number what sixteen in salary, and Fandel Kobe Fleaner he's

1072
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 1: number fifteen in salary at fifty four hundred and he's

1073
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 1: a great tight end two. But if Antonio Gates is out,

1074
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 1: is Hunter Henry the best value play? Yeah? I think so.

1075
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 1: Tight ends are so variable because they're never the variance

1076
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 1: on them is higher, like their coefficient of variation is

1077
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 1: higher than wide receivers because they're never the team's number

1078
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 1: one option. So you can't really imply a lot of

1079
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 1: safety from tight ends because usually at best of the

1080
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:02,359
Speaker 1: team's second look, usually it's much further down the chain

1081
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:05,720
Speaker 1: in terms of reads. So when I think it's almost

1082
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:07,839
Speaker 1: always correct to go cheaper at tight end and just

1083
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 1: hope that you get into that six to seven target range.

1084
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 1: And Hunter Henry is the perfect example of that, where

1085
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 1: if you can just get him five to six targets

1086
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 1: at forty five hundred on Fandel, I think you're just

1087
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:19,320
Speaker 1: totally fine playing it like Fleaner's not much more expensive,

1088
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 1: and I like where he's been trending in that offense,

1089
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 1: So he's another guy I'm definitely I definitely like I

1090
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 1: mentioned Zach Miller before in that range just because he

1091
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:29,839
Speaker 1: was I think double digit targets. So I don't think

1092
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 1: this is the sort of the case against Gronk as well,

1093
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: is that you just really are hard pressed to pay

1094
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,399
Speaker 1: up for these tight end guys because they're not They're

1095
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 1: just not their team's first looks. All right, let's move

1096
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 1: over to defense. Who's a contrarian defense that could force

1097
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:46,919
Speaker 1: a bunch of turnovers this weekend? Defense is hard this week.

1098
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 1: This is the one position and it's not really a position,

1099
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,360
Speaker 1: I guess, but it's the one position where I find

1100
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:56,879
Speaker 1: I was really finding it difficult to know exactly where

1101
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:58,799
Speaker 1: to go. I usually just like to go safe in

1102
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 1: terms of don't spend much, kind of hope for the best,

1103
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 1: and a team that's a favor with a low implied total.

1104
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 1: I don't mind the Cardinals this week. The Cardinals have

1105
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 1: been a little maligned on defense so far this year.

1106
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 1: They I don't think people will play them. From that

1107
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 1: point of view, the game should be a little slower,

1108
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 1: but they should be ahead. And if you think they're

1109
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,320
Speaker 1: going to be ahead and case keenoms will be throwing

1110
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 1: from behind, then that's a nice situation for them to grab,

1111
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 1: just like a tips ball here or a sack here

1112
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 1: and there. They're not cheap cheap, which is the reason

1113
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't go crazy with playing them. But I

1114
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:32,720
Speaker 1: think they have things set up for them pretty nicely

1115
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 1: all things considered, and I think people are pretty often

1116
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,399
Speaker 1: because they've had such variable performances up until this point.

1117
00:49:37,440 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 1: So the Cardinals are a team that there's upside there.

1118
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:43,440
Speaker 1: But this, like I should throw the caveat the defense,

1119
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:45,439
Speaker 1: I think is a very difficult venture this week. You'd

1120
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:48,279
Speaker 1: be probably correct to just spread some ownership to a

1121
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 1: couple of different teams and sort of hope for the best. Yeah,

1122
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:53,360
Speaker 1: I'm with you. I think it's a hard week for defense,

1123
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 1: But I do think Arizona against the turnover machine in

1124
00:49:57,920 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 1: Los Angeles is the top defensive play this week. I

1125
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 1: was like Washington against that third stringer Kessler in the

1126
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 1: home game Now there's two contrarian place that I'm pretty

1127
00:50:07,200 --> 00:50:09,479
Speaker 1: fond of this week. I like the Jets at home

1128
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 1: against Seattle, and especially for Russell Wilson's going to be out.

1129
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 1: You know, Russell Wilson's really good, but he's clearly not

1130
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,839
Speaker 1: himself right now playing with that ankle, and I could

1131
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 1: see a situation where they're shutting down the run and

1132
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:23,439
Speaker 1: he's thrown a couple of picks. We've seen some real

1133
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:25,640
Speaker 1: bad games out of Russell Wilson, so you know it

1134
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,239
Speaker 1: could definitely happen here. And then my other one, the

1135
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:30,759
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills defense, who was a top ten defense going

1136
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 1: into the season. Now they're all the way down at

1137
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 1: forty three hundred on FanDuel, which is way near the bottom,

1138
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:38,920
Speaker 1: and they're playing against a third string quarterback who's not healthy.

1139
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:40,879
Speaker 1: They're going to be able to shut down the run.

1140
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 1: I don't care how many guys are hurt. If they

1141
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 1: key in and put seven in the box, if they

1142
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 1: stack the box, I don't think they'll have any problem

1143
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: shutting down Blount and then brist It will be forced

1144
00:50:51,440 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 1: to throw and that could be ugly well right, and

1145
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 1: it's easy to forget, but the Patriots got really lucky

1146
00:50:57,600 --> 00:51:00,439
Speaker 1: last week against against the Texans. They hay they forced

1147
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 1: a couple of turnovers on kickoffs which put them in

1148
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:04,759
Speaker 1: insane field position, and then they were able to just

1149
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 1: basically have the Texans play into their hands after that,

1150
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 1: Because which is that? I mean, the Texans had just

1151
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:13,279
Speaker 1: some horrendous play calling, but if you play that game

1152
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 1: out one hundred times, it would not have been a

1153
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 1: shutout each time because they just had some of these

1154
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 1: things sort of just go in their favor. I think

1155
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 1: the Bill the Bills are a decent defense because I

1156
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 1: don't even mind going the other way with the Patriots too.

1157
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 1: The Patriots have been playing just crazy great defense. It's

1158
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 1: like almost like they've just wanted to step up and

1159
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 1: just said, we'll just win the ball on the win

1160
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 1: the ball, win the game on defense, and that's just

1161
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:35,879
Speaker 1: that's going to be our game plan. I don't mind

1162
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 1: going the other way. It's Vegas clearly doesn't know what's

1163
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 1: going on in that game, because I don't. I think

1164
00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 1: even as of right now, the game was off the board,

1165
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 1: like I'm not sure you could put in you couldn't

1166
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 1: put in an over underbet on it. So I think

1167
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:49,239
Speaker 1: everyone's just a little bit clueless about what's going on

1168
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 1: in that situation. And when there's that much uncertainty, it

1169
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:55,120
Speaker 1: doesn't usually mean it's going to be like this crazy

1170
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 1: shoot him out game. It just means we're all we're

1171
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 1: all kind of wondering, and that's like just the kind

1172
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:01,480
Speaker 1: of game that you can have things kind of the

1173
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 1: ball could bounce your way. Now, let's move over to stacks,

1174
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:06,720
Speaker 1: And if I had to pick one stack for cash games,

1175
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 1: I'm going with Drew Brees at home. I'm stacking him

1176
00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:13,399
Speaker 1: with Michael Thomas and Brandon Cooks and maybe maybe mark

1177
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 1: Ingram as well. I think they're going to score a

1178
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:17,799
Speaker 1: lot of points and it's a pretty safe bet. Yeah,

1179
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 1: I think with stacks, I would probably go with Cam

1180
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 1: and Kelvin. Even though I've said some reservations about about Benjamin,

1181
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 1: but I still think I'm all over Newton and the

1182
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:30,320
Speaker 1: safety you get with Benjamin if you think it returns

1183
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 1: to being a target guy, plus the upside with people

1184
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 1: being awesome, I think I would go that way. Against Atlanta,

1185
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 1: they haven't faced a bad defense yet. This is the

1186
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:40,239
Speaker 1: first really bad defense that they faced all year. Now,

1187
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 1: if we're going contrarian stack. Who do you like? Well,

1188
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 1: the contrarian stack is interesting. I think I would probably

1189
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 1: go with a guy like Stafford and then maybe a

1190
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 1: Golden Tate if they wanted to get him into the game. Again, again,

1191
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 1: this is way off board, I think, but if you

1192
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:56,759
Speaker 1: thought that they were incentivized to get Golden Tate sort

1193
00:52:56,800 --> 00:52:59,359
Speaker 1: of into the action to keep all mouths fed, then

1194
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 1: he's proven in the past that he can be a

1195
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 1: target guy, and Stafford, it's easy to look past him

1196
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 1: when you see some of the other like the Breeze

1197
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:08,800
Speaker 1: Rivers and Newton's of the world, like he would definitely

1198
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 1: be fourth among that group. So I don't mind going

1199
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 1: that direction, especially if you think Marvin Jones has been

1200
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 1: running really hot this year and Tate has been not

1201
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 1: in the same not in the same class, So I

1202
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 1: don't mind go in that direction. I like Baltimore too,

1203
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's necessarily contrarian. To me. The

1204
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 1: pick is Trevory Simeon with those two big wide receivers

1205
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 1: to Mary's Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. We saw what Simeon

1206
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 1: could do last week. I know it wasn't a great

1207
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:35,600
Speaker 1: situation for that defense to defend against him, but man,

1208
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay's defense is beat up. I could see the

1209
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 1: same thing happening this week in Tampa. Yeah. No, I

1210
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 1: think that's He's a really really difficult guy to evaluate

1211
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 1: in terms of just overall projections, because whenever you just

1212
00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 1: don't have a baseline performance to work from, you're just

1213
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:51,360
Speaker 1: sort of guessing about what the player has done in

1214
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 1: a week to week basis, and that makes it really

1215
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:55,760
Speaker 1: really difficult. But it also makes it difficult for everybody,

1216
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:58,799
Speaker 1: So like everyone has the same problems I think in

1217
00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:00,839
Speaker 1: terms of guys like that, and he's just another guy

1218
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:04,279
Speaker 1: that you can easily just skip over, you can you

1219
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:06,360
Speaker 1: would skip like when you said Trevor Seeming, I was

1220
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 1: like what, But then the more I thought about it,

1221
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:10,000
Speaker 1: it was mostly just because he's a guy I had

1222
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:12,239
Speaker 1: skipped over, not because it was correct to skip over him,

1223
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:15,440
Speaker 1: just because sometimes when I don't know, I'm just like, well,

1224
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 1: moving on to the next guy. But now I love

1225
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:19,040
Speaker 1: that he has guys to throw too. They'll throw out

1226
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:21,160
Speaker 1: of the backfield a little bit too. And he's been

1227
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 1: all things consider, pretty accurate, So I like that. Yeah. Yeah,

1228
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 1: all right, Well, Doug, that's all the questions we have

1229
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 1: for you this week. As always fun talking to you,

1230
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:30,719
Speaker 1: looking forward to doing it again, and good luck this weekend. Yeah,

1231
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 1: guys YouTube, thanks for having me really appreciate it. Good

1232
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:35,319
Speaker 1: luck for those of you listening. That's all we have

1233
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 1: this week. We've got three more episodes coming at you

1234
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:40,160
Speaker 1: next week. And remember to enter the My Playbook Ultimate

1235
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,600
Speaker 1: Sweepstakes by subscribing and reviewing on iTunes, then copy and

1236
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:47,799
Speaker 1: pasting to an email that's Bobby at Fantasypros dot com.

1237
00:54:47,800 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening and enjoy your football. I just want

1238
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:06,360
Speaker 1: I don't even know how the gal Street barks like dogs,

1239
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 1: like gigging and saying desiring up trouble