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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into the Sunday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Paroltz. Follow me on Twitter at sports Tuck Matt.

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Speaker 1: Every morning, we are here off of Bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 1: and we're also being brought to you by BETMGM. We're

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Speaker 1: here every morning, even on mornings where I want to

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Speaker 1: crawl into a hole and not come out. But look,

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Speaker 1: some of you guys, who are you know, longtime listeners

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Speaker 1: if you can call somebody going back to July a

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Speaker 1: long time listener. You've seen this before. You've seen me

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Speaker 1: have weeks where I've gone seven and twenty one and

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Speaker 1: I've just been brutal, and because it's the NFL, because

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Speaker 1: it's college football, and because we all bet it so heavily,

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Speaker 1: and when you do go cold, you get a glaring

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Speaker 1: spotlight put right on you and you just kind of

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Speaker 1: shake your head and you watch all your winning things

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Speaker 1: just sort of disappear. So that's what happened to me

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Speaker 1: over the last couple of days. I went two and

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Speaker 1: four two days ago, I went oh and three yesterday,

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Speaker 1: and really I went oh and four because I added

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Speaker 1: Kent State duh, that was a dumb move. But I

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Speaker 1: added that on the discord chat. So officially when oh

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Speaker 1: and three, but I went oh and four on my

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Speaker 1: own card and down four units. Yikes. And then I

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Speaker 1: was down two units on what was it today's Sunday,

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Speaker 1: so Friday it was down two units. So I mean

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Speaker 1: that is a huge hit to lose that much money

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Speaker 1: over two days. But we were up. I was up.

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Speaker 1: I was up big, And that's what happens. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's just we were on a really good run. And

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Speaker 1: you know, by my count, we were something like thirty

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Speaker 1: two and seventeen or something like that. Like we were

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Speaker 1: just rolling and every day it was you know, two

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Speaker 1: and ones or three and twos and four and twos,

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Speaker 1: and it was just we were just picking them up

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Speaker 1: and putting it down. And when you're going, well, there's

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Speaker 1: going to be the other side of the coin. So

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Speaker 1: when that happens, what do you do? So sports gambling

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Speaker 1: is as much of a mental grind than anything else,

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Speaker 1: and sports gambling is a difficult endeavor. It's a emotionally

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Speaker 1: trying endeavor and it's very very difficult to do it.

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Speaker 1: So somebody wrote me a nice message on Twitter, and

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Speaker 1: was like, you know, you're just telling it as it is, Baten,

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Speaker 1: because you're going two and eight over the last couple

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Speaker 1: of days, and you're not lying, you're not trying to hide.

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Speaker 1: You're telling everybody the truth. And that's what you're gonna

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Speaker 1: get out of me, because for one, this is a

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Speaker 1: free podcast, okay, And again for you youngsters out there,

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Speaker 1: something happened yesterday that I got to just bring up

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Speaker 1: because it's kind of funny and I'm forty three years old,

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Speaker 1: so I'm trying not to be a dick about it, Okay.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know if my email address or my

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Speaker 1: Twitter account or something. I don't know if it's because

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Speaker 1: I got a lot of young guys listening to the podcast,

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Speaker 1: But over the last four days, I've had four different

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Speaker 1: people ask me about being my intern. Now. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if if I'm all of a sudden like open

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Speaker 1: for business or because I teach at UNLV. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what it is. But like I've had a kid

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Speaker 1: at Penn State. I had a kid at uh, let's see,

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Speaker 1: they're all on the East coast. I forget which cot

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Speaker 1: which I'm in Temple, But I had these kids who

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Speaker 1: wanted internships, and one kid was like, Hey, I want

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Speaker 1: to talk to you about how to get into the business,

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Speaker 1: about going in with internships. This would be great. And

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Speaker 1: I was like, okay, yeah, that's you know, I'm really

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Speaker 1: busy today, but let's go ahead. And and then he

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Speaker 1: wrote me nice picks, way to go zero to three. Hey,

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Speaker 1: memo to anybody trying to get a job. If you

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Speaker 1: want me to respond to you, if you want me

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Speaker 1: to help you, don't be a dick, Like, really, you

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Speaker 1: don't think I'm you don't think I know I'm losing money.

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Speaker 1: Like this is the thing about this podcast. I don't

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Speaker 1: just give you guys picks and we'll be like, huh,

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Speaker 1: you're on your own f you, Like, that's not what

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Speaker 1: this is. If you trail me. And I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: you have to fade me. In fact, I would fade

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Speaker 1: me today, but fade me. I don't care how I

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Speaker 1: make you money. If I make awful picks and you

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Speaker 1: guys make money off of it. And I know a

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Speaker 1: couple guys were like, hey, man, tell me when your

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Speaker 1: pick so I can bet the other side. Okay, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you have like the brain cell of a frog. But whatever,

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Speaker 1: that's fine. If you want to do that, that's your game.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind it, Okay, now, don't be an a

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Speaker 1: hole about it. But if you just, you know, want

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Speaker 1: to go ahead and say, hey, you're ice, I'm fading you. Okay.

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get mad. I'm not gonna get angry.

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Speaker 1: That's the name of the game here and today. If

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Speaker 1: you want to fade me, I am not angry at

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Speaker 1: you one bit if you go the other side on

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Speaker 1: all four of the picks I've got going today. If

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Speaker 1: you want to fade me, that's fine. But if you're

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Speaker 1: asking someone to help you or you want an internship,

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Speaker 1: let's not talk about where I am picks wise, okay.

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Speaker 1: And just like when I'm winning, I often say we

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Speaker 1: don't add on it's a one unit or half unit

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Speaker 1: wager because we flat wager because we know the other

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Speaker 1: side is coming. And here's where we are, right, We're

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Speaker 1: in a valley. We're not in a good part. Are

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Speaker 1: we gonna get back to the top of the mountain. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: eventually we'll climb out of this. We'll be okay. And

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Speaker 1: so here's what I did yesterday. It's a mental grind, right,

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Speaker 1: So I got away from it, and I went to

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Speaker 1: Ikea with my wife and daughter and we went shopping

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Speaker 1: for some stuff for downstairs here in the area where

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Speaker 1: I do. We have kind of a split level house,

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Speaker 1: so where I record the podcast here in the sports

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Speaker 1: room type of thing, and I've got a little you know,

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Speaker 1: man room den type thing that we went and bought.

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Speaker 1: And I got a new TV, so we got a

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Speaker 1: new little stand. We've been putting that together all night.

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Speaker 1: It's like you need a PhD in engineering to put

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Speaker 1: this thing together, but we're trying to get that done.

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Speaker 1: And then we realized that the screws are not the

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Speaker 1: right screws that came with the Ikea wall mounts or

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Speaker 1: the TV mount so we had to buy something on Amazon.

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Speaker 1: So we can't finish that tonight. But that's besides the point.

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Speaker 1: And so like that's what I did. And I took

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Speaker 1: my daughter to Barnes and Noble and we went in

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Speaker 1: a chess set and I played and taught my daughter

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Speaker 1: how to play chess at six years old. She was asking,

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Speaker 1: you know, she'd heard she hadn't seen Queen's Gambut, but

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Speaker 1: she was talking about Que's gambit. Excuse me, and she

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Speaker 1: was hearing me talk about Queen's Gambit with my wife,

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Speaker 1: who hasn't watched it yet. If you've not seen that

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Speaker 1: show on Netflix, oh my goodness, that show's outstanding. So

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Speaker 1: I watched that show and I was talking about it.

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Speaker 1: So my kid wanted to learn. So we went into

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Speaker 1: Barnes and Noble and we bought a chess set together,

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Speaker 1: and we bought a couple of books and we hung out,

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Speaker 1: had a couple of coffee together with her in the

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Speaker 1: Barnes and Noble, and then we came home. So I

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Speaker 1: got away from it. When you're not seeing the board clearly,

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Speaker 1: you gotta just wash it away. You got to forget

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Speaker 1: about it. You gotta just forget that it happened and

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Speaker 1: realize that you are flat wagering. For a reason, we

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Speaker 1: preached bankroll management. It's about the long term. It's not

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Speaker 1: about just one football season or one bet or one day. Right.

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Speaker 1: It's not about having a bank role that can be

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Speaker 1: extinguished in one day of losing. Right, you should if

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Speaker 1: you're betting five percent of your bankroll, that's your one unit. Right.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's been asking me, like, what's a unit again, guys.

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Speaker 1: I know some of you guys are new it's fine.

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Speaker 1: Just DM me and asked me, I'll tell you this

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Speaker 1: is my opinion. Five percent of your bank role should

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Speaker 1: be your one unit. If it's one hundred dollars, it

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Speaker 1: should be a five dollar bet. It doesn't matter how

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Speaker 1: much you're betting. Okay, if you put five dollars or

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Speaker 1: five thousand dollars into the game, it is all the

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Speaker 1: same to me. Okay, I don't judge. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it matters. There's some like you know, dick measuring stuff

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Speaker 1: that goes in like I'm a big boy, like you know,

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Speaker 1: get out of here, right. Just some morons that are

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Speaker 1: out there that are talking and even like some ridiculous people.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw that exchange. I got

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Speaker 1: into with a guy named Ed Teach, who, again a

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Speaker 1: lot of these pro gamblers don't use their real name,

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Speaker 1: but that's that guy's real name. And so he's like,

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Speaker 1: you know, I said, I can't believe I bet on Michigan.

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Speaker 1: He's like, maybe you should leave up to the professionals. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: This is the same guy who said that Trump was

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Speaker 1: gonna win a landslide and told everybody to bet their

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Speaker 1: second kid on it. Basically, you know, hammer Trump Hammer

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Speaker 1: Trump then lost it all and then ran around and

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Speaker 1: went on podcasts trying to explain himself. So, yeah, good

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Speaker 1: on you dude. Wait to come out of the woodwork

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Speaker 1: and start talking about me. He's a pro gambler. I'm not. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So fine, you want to take shots at someone when

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Speaker 1: they're down, go right ahead. You're a big boy. Huh.

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Speaker 1: Let's see good. You know you show yourself a little

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Speaker 1: bit to me in these moments, Okay, Because either you're

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Speaker 1: honest about yourself when you lose, because everyone loses in

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Speaker 1: this game, everyone, or you don't. And if you're not,

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Speaker 1: that's fine, you don't have to be. But if you're

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Speaker 1: not going to be honest, you're not going to say

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Speaker 1: that you hit. You know, I hit seventy five percent

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Speaker 1: of my football bets. Shut up. You don't, Okay, you

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Speaker 1: just don't. It's hard as hell. And college football did

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Speaker 1: what the NFL did last week. So we had a

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Speaker 1: hell week last week in the NFL, and somehow I

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Speaker 1: dodge that hell week in college did not dodge it.

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Speaker 1: Most people I know were either flat or down. Some

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Speaker 1: people were lucky to be flat. I'm not one of them.

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Speaker 1: So onto the NFL on Do We Go reminder about

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Speaker 1: the live stream tonight tonight this morning at eleven am

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Speaker 1: East during eighty am Pacific time, our second one this week.

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Speaker 1: We're on it with Prop Bets. We're breaking down all

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Speaker 1: the craziness, including what the hell is going on in

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Speaker 1: Denver and how do you bet that game? Exactly like,

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Speaker 1: how do you bet? I wanted to bet the over

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Speaker 1: the unders? I mean the total thirty six and a half.

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Speaker 1: I was like, what the hell? The Saints might get

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Speaker 1: that by themselves. But I don't know how you play

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Speaker 1: that game. I don't know what the Saints are gonna

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Speaker 1: look like in that I don't know how mentally checked

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Speaker 1: out they are, knowing that all three quarterbacks for the

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Speaker 1: Broncos can't play, and they're calling up guys from the

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Speaker 1: practice squad and they're just gonna run the football the

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Speaker 1: entire time, and they're gonna run like a wishbone offense

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Speaker 1: or something. Who the hell knows what Denver's gonna do.

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Speaker 1: So funky things happen in games like this. I'm just

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Speaker 1: telling you, if you're banking on this going, I'm laying

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Speaker 1: fourteen and a half points on the Saints and I'm

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Speaker 1: good with it. Funky funky things happen now in the

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Speaker 1: contest to have stagnant lines. That news came out after

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Speaker 1: the deadline for all of our picks being being due

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Speaker 1: because the line was I think six or five and

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Speaker 1: a half for the Saints, which everyone and their mother

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Speaker 1: would have been on that. And then the Pittsburgh Steelers

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Speaker 1: playing on Tuesday against the Ravens. There's eighteen players of

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Speaker 1: COVID nineteen, Like, what, how are you playing that game

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday? And here's the problem if you take it

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Speaker 1: we did my team did in the Westgate thinking that

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Speaker 1: the NFL is gonna make them play that game. Well,

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Speaker 1: and it could happen. I mean, the line's three and

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Speaker 1: a half. The line is not going to close it

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Speaker 1: three and a half or Pittsburgh if they're forced to

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Speaker 1: play on Tuesday. So it's just kind of a nut

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Speaker 1: situation when it comes to COVID right now. This is

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Speaker 1: a wacko week. So Dan Harris and I in case

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Speaker 1: you guys listen to that podcast that we do every week,

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Speaker 1: the NFL podcast on Betting Pros, Dan Harris did record

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Speaker 1: one basically breaking down the games for you guys. If

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Speaker 1: you want to go listen to that off of our YouTube,

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, off of our Apple podcasts. That your wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, go search the Betting Pros NFL podcast.

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Speaker 1: But I wasn't on it because I was tied up

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Speaker 1: doing all sorts of crazy things, and we took the

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Speaker 1: week off in the DraftKings, so we just punted on

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Speaker 1: this week in the DraftKings. We couldn't do that in

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Speaker 1: the Circa couldn't do that in the Westgate. You're required

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Speaker 1: to make picks in the reboot. In the Circa Million,

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Speaker 1: I'm just I'm brutal. In the Circa Million, I'm brutal

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Speaker 1: in actually, well, the West Gate. We're tied for fourth,

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Speaker 1: so we're doing really well in the West Gate. But

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Speaker 1: we're only three weeks into the west Gate. But before

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Speaker 1: we give you the plays, four from already giving you

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Speaker 1: one casey minus three and a half. That number has

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Speaker 1: moved already, but I've already given it to you. Kansas

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Speaker 1: City up against the Tampa Bay Bucks on the road,

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Speaker 1: laying three and a half points. I'm I'm pretty comfortable

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Speaker 1: with that. I that was a bet I made very

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Speaker 1: early back when I actually was picking winners. We made

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Speaker 1: that bet so I hope that's okay, but I mean

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Speaker 1: it's one of those games very like the number really

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Speaker 1: hasn't moved all that much, although Fox bet today at

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Speaker 1: the time of tapings it's at minus four, so it

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Speaker 1: looks like some chief money may come in late here

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Speaker 1: on that. But remember the bet MGM one game Parlay.

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Speaker 1: gambler in New Jersey, in West Virginia, or one hundred

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Speaker 1: and nine with it in Indiana. All right, So case

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Speaker 1: minus three and a half is the first play, and

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Speaker 1: I've explained that kind of already. But I just think

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Speaker 1: that Tom Brady's gonna have a tough time here. They

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Speaker 1: got him on the football to be effective. I think

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Speaker 1: that that the Chiefs are going to stop the run

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Speaker 1: and then you're gonna have to throw over the top.

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Speaker 1: And on the other side, I think that defense has

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Speaker 1: been exposed here for Tampa. Tampa playing at home has

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Speaker 1: not been a big thing, but they've lost twice to

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Speaker 1: the Saints. They've lost a lot of their big games,

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Speaker 1: and I'm just not comfortable with Tampa right now, and

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Speaker 1: I think there's some real problems brewing in Tampa. I

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Speaker 1: still think they win ten games, but they're going into

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Speaker 1: their bye week. I think they just want to get

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Speaker 1: to their bye week and get the heck out of

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Speaker 1: this season so far, and get to some rest and

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Speaker 1: relaxation before their return for three very very winnable games

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Speaker 1: for them. You know, was the Falcons twice in the

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Speaker 1: Lions once. I believe it is for Tampa or the

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Speaker 1: three games following the bye week. So for Tampa, I

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Speaker 1: just think this is going to be a game where

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Speaker 1: they're facing Patrick Mahomes, and Mahomes hasn't been great against

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Speaker 1: the number of the last two weeks. They're due to

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Speaker 1: bust out here and have a pretty big brif ormance.

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Speaker 1: You know. They were ten point favorites at home against

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Speaker 1: Carolina they won by two. They were seven and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road against Vegas they won

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Speaker 1: by four. They're winning, but they're not covering, and they're

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Speaker 1: only six and four against the number. Tampa's five and

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Speaker 1: six against the number. Didn't cover as three point favorites

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Speaker 1: against the Rams last week against Carolina they won by

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Speaker 1: twenty three on the road, which covered easily. But four sorry,

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Speaker 1: three of the last four games Tampa has not not

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Speaker 1: covered the spread. So I'm gonna look to continue that trend.

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Speaker 1: I think Brady has a tough time. Casey I think

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Speaker 1: gets after it. And look, this is Mahomes against Brady, right,

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Speaker 1: this is like he's never gonna play Brady in a

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, I don't believe. So whenever he gets a

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Speaker 1: chance to match up with that guy, they want to

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Speaker 1: ball out and they want to go put up some numbers,

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Speaker 1: Andy Reid. Clearly it's not Belichick, but it's still Brady,

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Speaker 1: and so there's still some history there. So Tampa, sorry, Casey,

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Speaker 1: minus three and a half against Tampa is play number one,

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Speaker 1: So play number two. I'm gonna roll here with a total,

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna talk about Vegas against it Alta in

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Speaker 1: a dome. These two teams in domes put up numbers,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's significant that Vegas is on the

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Speaker 1: road at Atlanta here, And I mean, if you want

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Speaker 1: to bet the number, I don't hate this. If you

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Speaker 1: go ahead and say Vegas is going to cover this

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Speaker 1: three point line, I don't hate that Vegas is seven

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Speaker 1: and three against the number this year, I thought long

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Speaker 1: and hard about betting Vegas minus three. However, I think

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Speaker 1: points are going to get scored in this game. I

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Speaker 1: got the total at fifty three and a half. And

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Speaker 1: when you look at what's going on against New Orleans

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Speaker 1: and you look at Atlanta against other teams, I mean

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Speaker 1: they have put up numbers, in particular in games where

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Speaker 1: they have played in domes. Same thing when it comes

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Speaker 1: to Vegas, when it comes to dome games. You know,

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Speaker 1: against Kansas City at home, Vegas scored thirty one points,

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Speaker 1: gave up thirty five. The overhit by nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: Against Denver they scored thirty seven points, only gave up twelve.

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Speaker 1: But they scored thirty seven points against La they scored

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Speaker 1: thirty one points in a thirty one to twenty six victory. Right,

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Speaker 1: so the over went in that game. Other dome games

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Speaker 1: against Buffalo, we saw fifty three points. I was a

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Speaker 1: push on the total for that game against New Orleans

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00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,400
Speaker 1: thirty four to twenty four. Like when they were at home.

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Speaker 1: When Vegas is in a dome, Vegas' offense clicks. Same

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00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,840
Speaker 1: thing can be said for Atlanta. Right against the Dallas

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Speaker 1: Cowboys Dome, that went over against the Bears Dome, their

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00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,240
Speaker 1: game against the Bears at home, went over. Against Minnesota

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Speaker 1: on the road dome, it went over. Okay, Denver at

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Speaker 1: home dome, it went over the last two times against

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Speaker 1: New Orleans at home twenty four to nine. But that

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00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:45,440
Speaker 1: was a funky game, like we knew, and it was.

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Speaker 1: It was the debut of what the future might looked

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Speaker 1: like for New Orleans. And their defense is pretty decent.

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Speaker 1: Atlanta didn't look good. I just I don't think the

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Speaker 1: defense for the Raiders is all that good. I think

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Speaker 1: the defense is okay. They don't get much pressure on

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Speaker 1: the quarter. I know there's injury concerns here for the

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00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:05,280
Speaker 1: receiving corps and I know that you know, Todd Todd

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Speaker 1: Gurley's out here for Atlanta, So there are some concerns

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Speaker 1: there from an injury perspective as to who's gonna be

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Speaker 1: on the field for the Atlanta Falcons. And you know,

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00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 1: Calvin Ridley is probable, Gurley is out, Julio Jones is

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00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:22,040
Speaker 1: questionable with the hamstring. So yeah, there are some worries

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00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:24,560
Speaker 1: there a little bit here. But I think, look, can

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Speaker 1: they score twenty points? Yeah? Can they get the twenty

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Speaker 1: five points? I think that they can. So I'm playing

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Speaker 1: the over fifty three and a half for the Raiders

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Speaker 1: in Atlanta. I think both teams score here. I think

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00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,399
Speaker 1: this is a shootout football game. I think Vegas wins

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00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:41,200
Speaker 1: in covers in my contests. In both contests, I've taken

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Speaker 1: the Raiders to cover this three points. So I like

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00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,119
Speaker 1: the Raiders minus three, but I don't. I don't like

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Speaker 1: it enough. I like the over more for Las Vegas

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Speaker 1: in Atlanta. So we're going over fifty three and a

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Speaker 1: half for Las Vegas in Atlanta. Second side that we're

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Speaker 1: gonna take is Tennessee at Indianapols. This is a really

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Speaker 1: big game. Plus three. I'm getting plus three. I think

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00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:07,800
Speaker 1: this is a field goal game, one way or the other.

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Speaker 1: I got it even money, Okay, books don't want to

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Speaker 1: move off of three. The books believe this is the

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00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 1: right number here for these two teams. And look, they

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Speaker 1: just played a couple of weeks ago and they lost.

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Speaker 1: I mean Tennessee lost by seventeen. It got away from

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Speaker 1: them in the second half. Indianapolis went into there and

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00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,560
Speaker 1: smacked them around. But I think they got right. The

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00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:31,120
Speaker 1: Titans got right against Baltimore. I think they figure something out.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna start to really look to pressure

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Speaker 1: the quarterback. I think the second half goes differently this time.

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00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,359
Speaker 1: I think Tennessee's gonna win this game outright, I do

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00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 1: think I think they'll win this game straight up, but

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00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the three points. There are some injury

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00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:49,400
Speaker 1: concerns in COVID concerns for the Indianapolis Colts that are

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00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,120
Speaker 1: worth looking at and worth talking about as to where

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00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,720
Speaker 1: we are here. They're another team that's been dealing a

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Speaker 1: lot with COVID issues and dealing with injuries. Quentin Nelson

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00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,920
Speaker 1: has a back injury. He is questionable. That's a monster

393
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:08,159
Speaker 1: injury for that offensive line for the Colts. Even Philip

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00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 1: Rivers has a toe injury and he's questionable in this game.

395
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 1: Now it looks like he's gonna play. But you know,

396
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 1: you've got other injuries out there to look at, and

397
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 1: things that have kind of popped up on the defensive

398
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:22,320
Speaker 1: line you get a look at. We've got Jonathan Taylor

399
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,639
Speaker 1: who's on the COVID list. He's gonna be all for

400
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 1: an unknown computing period of time. Other players may be

401
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 1: popping up here for Indianapolis with COVID. So I think

402
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 1: the Titans catching three on the road against Indianapolis. Often

403
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 1: times it's tough to beat the team twice in the

404
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 1: same year in the same division when they're very evenly matched.

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00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:48,119
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Titans plus three. Titans plus three, I

406
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 1: think they win the game outright. I'll probably sprinkle a

407
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 1: little bit on the money line, but I'm going Titans

408
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,240
Speaker 1: here and this this is a big game for me

409
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 1: with the Titans, who are seven and three on the year,

410
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 1: and if they get a victory, they go to eight wins,

411
00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 1: and my bet having them win more than nine and

412
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 1: a half games looks pretty good. Looks like they're gonna

413
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 1: go at worse ten and six if they win this

414
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 1: game coming up here today against Inanapolis Colts. But very

415
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 1: curious about this game. And as you guys know, I

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00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 1: always have one game that I really like and then

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00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,360
Speaker 1: I also tease it because it's a game that I'm

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00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 1: heavily invested in and looking at. I came really close

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Speaker 1: to using the Patriots here to tease them from two

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Speaker 1: to eight. I came very close. The only thing that

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00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 1: really concerns me is that Kyler Murray is the exact

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Speaker 1: type of quarterback who lights the Patriots on fire. It

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00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 1: is a massive contrarian play to take the Patriots to

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00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 1: win today and cover get catching two points, but just

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00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 1: to win the game or to cover either or I

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00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 1: thought about teasing them up over seven, and I stopped

427
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,680
Speaker 1: myself because I've seen the story before and I'm very

428
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 1: concerned about that offense going into New England if the

429
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 1: weather's not bad, I'm very concerned. I'm very concerned for

430
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 1: my Patriots. So I got off of that. We're gonna

431
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,200
Speaker 1: take the Titans, who I just said, think I think

432
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 1: they win the game out right, I'm gonna tease that

433
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,879
Speaker 1: to nine, so we canna take the six six to

434
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 1: six points. The parral two team teaser is seven and

435
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 1: four on the year right now, So we're going to

436
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 1: week twelve seven and four Andy to nine. And on

437
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 1: the other side, we're gonna go and take the Chargers,

438
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 1: who at one point were five and a half point

439
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 1: fail sorry pot five and a half point underdogs, and

440
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,199
Speaker 1: they dropped down to four and a half. There's some

441
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 1: money that came in here, Chargers at Buffalo. You guys

442
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 1: know I love to fade the Bills. I'm gonna give

443
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,320
Speaker 1: the Chargers ten and a half points here, Okay, I'm

444
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: gonna tease them up to ten and a half. Now,

445
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,719
Speaker 1: they may lose the game, very very possible that they

446
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 1: may lose the game. But by seven. As long as

447
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 1: they don't get killed even ten, they can lose by

448
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,199
Speaker 1: ten and we cover. I just think this is a

449
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 1: game that's seven points or less against the number the card.

450
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 1: The Chargers are four, five and one. And I know

451
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 1: you're probably shaking your head, going, Matt, your ice cold,

452
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: You're not making good place, and now you're picking the

453
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: Chargers to do anything for you? What are you doing?

454
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:14,120
Speaker 1: Didn't they burn you enough? I just it's the best number, okay,

455
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 1: regardless of you know, justin Herbert and everything else going

456
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 1: into this Charger team. I just to me, it's the

457
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 1: best number. And the Chargers, I mean, look at their games, Okay.

458
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: The Chargers this year have not had a single game

459
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: decided by more than ten points. Every game, okay, every

460
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 1: game where you know, win by three, lose by three,

461
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 1: lose by five, lose by seven, lose by three, win

462
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,120
Speaker 1: by ten, lose by one, lose by five, lose by eight,

463
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 1: win by six. Okay, every single game is ten points

464
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: or less for the Chargers, and I get ten and

465
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 1: a half. So as long as that trend continues and

466
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 1: they don't lose by ten or more, they can lose

467
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 1: by ten or less. It's not by more than ten.

468
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,120
Speaker 1: We get that leg to hit for the two team

469
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 1: teaser minus one twenty five as all full unit. Okay,

470
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 1: So it's a little bit scary. And you know, I

471
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: thought of long and hard about going half a unit here,

472
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 1: and I just in the NFL, there are so few

473
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 1: games to pick that. Okay, I'm going into it, and

474
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 1: I may really wipe myself out and wipe out all

475
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 1: the winnings that we have had if I go zero

476
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: to four today. I mean we will be, you know,

477
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 1: giving a lot back from where we were up at

478
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 1: one point. I think the max we were up was

479
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 1: like eleven to twelve units. We've definitely cut that in half.

480
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 1: But I think we'll be giving it all the way back.

481
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 1: And I think I think the daily Jews will be

482
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 1: even if we lose all four of these games today,

483
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,120
Speaker 1: we'll be back at or close to it from where

484
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: we were, which is we had built up a nice

485
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,400
Speaker 1: little cushion and I will have given it all back.

486
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 1: So I am a little concerned about that. But we're

487
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 1: just gonna go full unit here. Kansas City minus three

488
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 1: and a half over Raiders and the Falcons fifty three

489
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: and a half Titans plus three and the Parolt two

490
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 1: team teaser plus nine Tight plus ten and a half

491
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 1: on the Chargers and cross our fingers and hope, hope, hope.

492
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 1: Now we will have excuse me, We will have prop

493
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 1: bets going during the live stream, which I hope you

494
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: will join us. Coming up this morning eleven am Eastern time,

495
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 1: eight am Pacific time. We'll get rocking and roll in

496
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,199
Speaker 1: on the on the YouTube channel for bettingpros dot com.

497
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: We'll give out prop bets. We'll break downline movement and

498
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 1: talk about where the heck we are right now in

499
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 1: the NFL, which is going to be very very complicated

500
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 1: and very very confusing with all the cancelations movements and

501
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen issues across the NFL. But it's week twelve.

502
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,399
Speaker 1: It's the NFL. I hope you will join me for

503
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 1: the live stream later on this morning, and then come

504
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 1: back tomorrow for Monday night football Seattle and the Eagles,

505
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 1: and Tuesday for the Steelers and the Ravens. All coming up.

506
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: We've got midweek football. You can't really be angry about

507
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: midweek NFL football when it comes to betting on games.

508
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 1: My name is Matt Parolt to following me on Twitter

509
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 1: app Sports Talk Matt. Every morning it is The Day

510
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 1: Reduced podcast, All Cuttingpros dot Com Sponsored by bedam GM