WEBVTT - Crypto Gets Its Moment of Clarity

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>This is among the most read. You have two crypto

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<v Speaker 2>lenders with links to South Korea halting withdrawals in quick successions.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's just a reminder that there's still a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of risks and a lot of clampdowns when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to crypto. So on that. In the new issue of

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Bloomberg News Digital Currencies and Venture Capitol reporter

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<v Speaker 2>Hannah Miller writing about a relationship to Matt Miller.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, No, no relationship that I know of.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean it is I believe, the second most comedy

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<v Speaker 4>in America.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Well, Hannah's writing about how crypto is getting

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<v Speaker 2>his moment of clarity, but not the one that it wanted.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a great story. She does us on a zooming

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<v Speaker 2>our San Francisco bureau. Hanna, I don't know, have you

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<v Speaker 2>done like you know, I don't know a genetic testing

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<v Speaker 2>year to find out what is it?

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<v Speaker 4>Answers. I'm on there, we would have gotten we would

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<v Speaker 4>have been notified.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm on there too. So no notification.

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<v Speaker 2>All right. Well, one industry that's got a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>notifications if it will, if you will, is crypto. So

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<v Speaker 2>talk to us about your store, because I think they

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<v Speaker 2>were looking for, like, you know, recognition, as you say,

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<v Speaker 2>a moment of clarity. They didn't get exactly what they.

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<v Speaker 5>Wanted, right, Yeah. For years, the crypto industry has just

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<v Speaker 5>been clamoring for greater regulatory clarity, and they've wanted answers.

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<v Speaker 5>They've wanted rules, they wanted guidelines. They said that they're

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<v Speaker 5>working with regulators and that to them, there weren't clear

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<v Speaker 5>processes in place. Well, now they've gotten their answer, and

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<v Speaker 5>it's not a good one. You know, the SEC is

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<v Speaker 5>hammering down on crypto. These lawsuits against Finance and coinbase

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<v Speaker 5>show that the SEC thinks most of the tokens on

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<v Speaker 5>these platforms are unregistered securities.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so are they right?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, you know what, that's an argument that we that's

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<v Speaker 4>a debate that we could have, right, Hannah, because I

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<v Speaker 4>think in a lot of cases they seem more like

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<v Speaker 4>commodities than securities, And you know, Matt Levine always cites

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<v Speaker 4>the Howie test and it's kind of a fun debate.

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<v Speaker 4>But it doesn't matter. As long as Gary Gensler and

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<v Speaker 4>the SEC say their securities, they're going to use their

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<v Speaker 4>power to shut down any businesses that are dealing in

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<v Speaker 4>them without a license.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, that's correct. I mean we've seen a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>you know, different regulators jocking for power here. You know,

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<v Speaker 5>the SEC, the CFTC, you know, have claimed jurisdiction over crypto.

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<v Speaker 5>But you know, the actions taken by the SEC show that,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, they're serious about this, that they want to

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<v Speaker 5>crack down on crypto, and that's really put the entire

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<v Speaker 5>industry in unsteady ground in the US.

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<v Speaker 2>So what does it mean. I mean, I've seen a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of stories, yours included, like we are thinking about

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<v Speaker 2>what it means for the US crypto industry because outside

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<v Speaker 2>the United States, right, they're moving ahead.

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<v Speaker 5>That's true. Yeah, I mean we've seen, you know, crypto

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<v Speaker 5>hubs pop up in places like Singapore. Hong Kong is

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<v Speaker 5>actually having a warmer reception of crypto. The UK is

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<v Speaker 5>a big market that people are eyeing for coinbase. That's

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<v Speaker 5>the largest international market that they want to expand into

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<v Speaker 5>and also, you know in Europe we've seen legislation pass

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<v Speaker 5>there that you know, the crypto industry sees is more

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<v Speaker 5>welcoming to the industry versus the enforcement taken by the SEC.

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<v Speaker 4>We did have a great story or I guess, a

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<v Speaker 4>positive story for crypto across the wire earlier today. According

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<v Speaker 4>to coindesk, black Rocks close to filing an application for

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<v Speaker 4>a Bitcoin ETF and they would use coin Base as

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<v Speaker 4>custody as custodian. What do you think about this, Hannah,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean other people have tried and failed.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, So I mean in institutional investors, that is the

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<v Speaker 5>key area for the crypto industry. You know, they want,

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<v Speaker 5>they still want institutional approval and they feel like that

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<v Speaker 5>could maybe help carry them through and keep them, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>on more even footing in the US. So, yeah, this

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<v Speaker 5>news about black Rock, you know, that's a welcome development

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<v Speaker 5>both for the industry and for Coinbase. You know, this

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<v Speaker 5>is a company that is publicly publicly traded in the US,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, has seen its stock go up and down.

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<v Speaker 5>So welcome developments like this are are I'm sure a

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<v Speaker 5>booster morale there.

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<v Speaker 4>That's funny, Carol, because you know, everybody's pushing so hard

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<v Speaker 4>for a bitcoin etf, as Hannah says, you know, the

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<v Speaker 4>thought being that it would kind of legitimize the asset

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<v Speaker 4>class for investors. But there are already a number of

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<v Speaker 4>crypto ETFs and they've done incredibly well this year, except

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<v Speaker 4>for the fact that nobody has any money invested in them.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean we're talking single digit millions.

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<v Speaker 2>So how are they doing well?

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<v Speaker 4>Then, well, that's the prices have gone, right, but there's

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<v Speaker 4>no cloths.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, so there's nothing into it. Well, I do

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<v Speaker 2>wonder too, Hannah, you know, go back to you say

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<v Speaker 2>institutional investors are clamoring for them. I mean, are pension

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<v Speaker 2>funds like tell me, give me some like color on that.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah. I think there's still you know, sence among pension funds,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, but we've seen players like Black Crop that

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<v Speaker 5>been that they still spy opportunity in this space, and

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<v Speaker 5>you know, that's that's helped crypto enthusiasts, you know, maintain

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<v Speaker 5>a bullish attitude towards the the lassets that large. So

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<v Speaker 5>it'll be interesting to see if more institutional players come

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<v Speaker 5>out about crypto, if they're willing to, you know, publicly

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<v Speaker 5>raise the flag that they're still interested in this space.

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<v Speaker 2>One thing I want to ask you, with the lawsuits

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<v Speaker 2>that we've seen by the SEC against Coinbase and Binance,

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<v Speaker 2>they as you report, could drag on for years, and

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<v Speaker 2>I do want to you cite a case against Ripple

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<v Speaker 2>that is still ongoing that was back So I do

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<v Speaker 2>wonder is that good for cryptle, you know, for crypto players?

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<v Speaker 2>Is that bad?

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<v Speaker 6>Like?

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<v Speaker 2>How do we see that?

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<v Speaker 6>Oh?

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<v Speaker 5>Many of the people I've been talking to in the

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<v Speaker 5>industry have you know, taken it as a good thing

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<v Speaker 5>that these lawsuits could drag on. You know that maybe

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<v Speaker 5>something will change, something will shift during this time. You

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<v Speaker 5>know that they'll actually you know, get a better outcome

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<v Speaker 5>than just the SEC winning these cases. So that's people

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<v Speaker 5>have really clung to that as a sign of hope.

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<v Speaker 5>And you know they're trying to make a game plan here.

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<v Speaker 5>They're you know, thinking about changing up their investment strategies.

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<v Speaker 5>I've talked to a lot of vcs who are pulling

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<v Speaker 5>back from token purchases as a form investment that they're

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<v Speaker 5>just sticking to equity because there's this there is this

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<v Speaker 5>uncertainty around tokens. So it'll be interesting to see how

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<v Speaker 5>all this plays out how people you know, past the

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<v Speaker 5>years here.

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<v Speaker 4>One problem with these lawsuits is that you can really

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<v Speaker 4>start to lose market share, right An analyst Dan Dola

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<v Speaker 4>from The Zoo wrote today that Coinbase is starting to

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<v Speaker 4>lose market share and crypto trading to Robin Hood.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 5>No, that that's correct. I mean the lawsuit is a

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<v Speaker 5>big drawback for Coinbase, and you know, people are going

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<v Speaker 5>to maybe turn to you know, more familiar name like

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<v Speaker 5>Robin Hood, or you know, be willing to jump ship

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<v Speaker 5>from Coinbase. So we'll see what happens. But that wasn't

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<v Speaker 5>totally shocking to me.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, go back to where we started. Are we

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<v Speaker 2>still figuring out exactly what cryptocurrencies are? Are they a commodity?

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<v Speaker 2>Are they a collectible? Are they a currency? Are they

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<v Speaker 2>a security?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah? I think we're still trying to figure that out.

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<v Speaker 5>I've seen a lot of talk about pivoting from money

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<v Speaker 5>crypto to tech crypto, so pulling away from like the

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<v Speaker 5>financial aspects of crypto and looking at how blockchain technology

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<v Speaker 5>can you know, provide use cases here. You know, you

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<v Speaker 5>hear talk about Web three, which is the decentralized version

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<v Speaker 5>of the Internet based on blockchain. So I think people

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<v Speaker 5>have kind of tried to pull away from the financial

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<v Speaker 5>scams and scandals that have just been continuing to rock

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<v Speaker 5>the industry.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, if she was a member of your family,

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<v Speaker 2>she'd be a huge asset.

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<v Speaker 3>I agree.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm just going to say, we're just going to put

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<v Speaker 2>that out there. Hannah, that was incredible, great story. Really,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, so timely, Hannah Miller, Thank you, thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>She is our Bloomberg News Digital Currencies and venture capital reporter,

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<v Speaker 2>Hannah Miller. It's just a great reporter.

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<v Speaker 4>Host of the Sam Bankman Freed podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>She is, Oh my gosh, why don't we talk about that? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>all right, anybody you know, download it, find it. It

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<v Speaker 2>tells the story. Yeah, it's very because it's still going on.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, that's a pretty.

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<v Speaker 4>Amazing any spoilers, Well, the whole case is still going

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<v Speaker 4>on as well.

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<v Speaker 2>And she's looking at like, who are these two idiots?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, oh my god.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, catch

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<v Speaker 2>We want to talk a little bit about something our

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Business Week Pursuit's team att covered in a big

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<v Speaker 2>way earlier this year. It's about the market for sleep

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<v Speaker 2>tracking devices, some fourteen and a half billion, projected to

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<v Speaker 2>reach more than sixty one billion dollars by twenty thirty.

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<v Speaker 2>This as a staggering fifty percent of the population is

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<v Speaker 2>sleep deprived. You are not.

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<v Speaker 7>Well.

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<v Speaker 4>Here's the thing. I slip on a sleep tracking device

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<v Speaker 4>every night because over the past couple of years, I've

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<v Speaker 4>had to wake up at two o'clock in the morning

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<v Speaker 4>every day for my early show appearance, and so I

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<v Speaker 4>wanted to make sure I was tracking my sleep and

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<v Speaker 4>hopefully getting enough to survive. I only averaged about six

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<v Speaker 4>hours a night over the past couple of years. But

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<v Speaker 4>since since I've dropped that schedule a month ago, I've

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<v Speaker 4>been averaging more than eight hours a night, and I

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<v Speaker 4>feel fantastic, like I've come off of an acid trip,

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<v Speaker 4>Like I can actually think clearly again. It's unbelievable, the

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<v Speaker 4>difference in cognitive power between being sleep deprived and getting

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<v Speaker 4>your full solid eight hours.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that's what we want to talk about with Adam Spiro.

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<v Speaker 2>He's Professor in the Department of Mental Health at the

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<v Speaker 2>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported as you

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<v Speaker 2>know by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Philanthropies. Adam joining us on zoom from Baltimore. Adam,

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<v Speaker 2>I couldn't agree more with Matt. If I get a

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<v Speaker 2>good night's sleep, the world is mine. When I'm not,

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<v Speaker 2>it feels like everything just hurt and everything's a problem.

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<v Speaker 2>So talk to us about the importance of sleep and

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<v Speaker 2>why we're not all getting better sleep and more sleep.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, well, you're absolutely right.

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<v Speaker 6>Sleep is connected to so many aspects of our health

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<v Speaker 6>and wellness, from our mood and emotions, to our ability

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<v Speaker 6>to think clearly, to aspects of our metabolism, to cardiovascular health.

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<v Speaker 6>You name it, sleep is linked to it, and good

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<v Speaker 6>sleep supports good health. More broadly, and yes, a substantial

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<v Speaker 6>proportion of the US population is sleep deprived, and some

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<v Speaker 6>of us are doing that because we do not have

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<v Speaker 6>the opportunity to get the sleep we need due to schedules,

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<v Speaker 6>demands on us from work, or the social environment like family.

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<v Speaker 7>Or caregiving, or you name it.

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<v Speaker 6>Some of us are not getting enough sleep because the

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<v Speaker 6>neighborhoods we're in, or have noise pollution or light pollution.

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<v Speaker 6>Some of us are not getting enough sleep because we

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<v Speaker 6>have frank sleep disorders like a clinical insomnia disorder or

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<v Speaker 6>sleep disordered breathing or sleep apnea. So there are many.

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<v Speaker 6>But then there are others of us who voluntarily forego

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<v Speaker 6>sleep because we want to binge the rest of that series,

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<v Speaker 6>or we are on social media.

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<v Speaker 7>So a lot of us are.

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<v Speaker 4>Not that as Carol by the way, yeah, I'm Carol

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<v Speaker 4>has Basically it's so funny because, like.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, you need to have a schedule. I think

0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:32.360
<v Speaker 2>about my dad. He was like so disciplined and up

0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.560
<v Speaker 2>at the same time, went to bed at the same time.

0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:37.080
<v Speaker 2>I'm not good about that. How how much of that

0:11:37.360 --> 0:11:38.839
<v Speaker 2>is a bad thing? Like you need to have some

0:11:38.920 --> 0:11:40.000
<v Speaker 2>kind of regular schedule.

0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:45.400
<v Speaker 6>Well, so if you have a sleep problem, we recommend

0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:47.360
<v Speaker 6>that you one of the first things that you do

0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:52.280
<v Speaker 6>is set a good standard non varying wake up times,

0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:54.040
<v Speaker 6>so you wake up at the same time every day

0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:54.880
<v Speaker 6>if you.

0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:59.480
<v Speaker 7>Have insomnia, for example, and that really supports good sleep health.

0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:03.720
<v Speaker 4>It is really important, all right, So we wanted to

0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:08.080
<v Speaker 4>talk about the link between sleep problems and Alzheimer's disease

0:12:08.200 --> 0:12:12.520
<v Speaker 4>or sleep problems and dementia. And I wonder if it's

0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:14.920
<v Speaker 4>kind of a chicken and egg thing. Do people who

0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:18.240
<v Speaker 4>have sleep problems are they more likely to develop dementia

0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.560
<v Speaker 4>or Alzheimer's disease, Or is it people who already have

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:25.920
<v Speaker 4>Alzheimer's disease or already experienced dementia they then have sleep problems.

0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:28.800
<v Speaker 7>Well, I think that you hit the nail on the

0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:30.680
<v Speaker 7>head there.

0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:33.520
<v Speaker 6>It's a bi directional relationship, is how we're really thinking

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.600
<v Speaker 6>about it these days. Where we used to think when

0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:39.280
<v Speaker 6>we thought about sleep in Alzheimer's disease, we used to

0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:42.559
<v Speaker 6>think that sleep disturbances happened in people with Alzheimer's disease

0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:46.120
<v Speaker 6>because their brains changed, and people who either care for

0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:48.960
<v Speaker 6>people with Alzheimer's disease or clinicians who work with them,

0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:51.520
<v Speaker 6>family members who might have someone with Alzheimer's disease in

0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:54.960
<v Speaker 6>the house become quite aware of the significant sleep disturbance

0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:57.800
<v Speaker 6>that is really common in that population. So that was

0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:02.439
<v Speaker 6>the direction that people first thought about, But really, over

0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:05.080
<v Speaker 6>the last decade or so a little more than that,

0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:08.680
<v Speaker 6>now people have really come to realize that sleep disturbance

0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.080
<v Speaker 6>is associated with an increased risk for dementia and could

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:16.840
<v Speaker 6>well play a causal role in promoting dementia and Alzheimer's

0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:18.000
<v Speaker 6>disease in particular.

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:23.400
<v Speaker 4>All right, so people who have no excuses are in college.

0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.080
<v Speaker 4>If you don't have to be at work at five

0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:28.040
<v Speaker 4>o'clock in the morning, you should put down your Twitter,

0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:30.680
<v Speaker 4>stop watching your Netflix, and go to sleep.

0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:36.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he's right, he's right. I get the No, it's

0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:39.400
<v Speaker 2>just well, why is it that though we have a

0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:42.320
<v Speaker 2>harder time falling asleep as we get older, and like

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.920
<v Speaker 2>I was a kid, would sleep until eleven or noon

0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:48.080
<v Speaker 2>on a Saturday. You know easily, I can't do that anymore.

0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.480
<v Speaker 6>Well, so you were talking about two different things which

0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.880
<v Speaker 6>are really interesting. So we do notice and oftentimes you

0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:59.679
<v Speaker 6>mentioned when you were a kid. Teenagers notoriously get mislabeled

0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:02.160
<v Speaker 6>as because what they end up doing is they can

0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:05.040
<v Speaker 6>sleep a really long time. And when we're younger that

0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:08.160
<v Speaker 6>our need for sleep is greater. And the clock in

0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:11.319
<v Speaker 6>our brain that basically tells us when to sleep and

0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:14.920
<v Speaker 6>when to be awake is basically telling us to go

0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 6>to bed later and to wake up later. It's what

0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:23.640
<v Speaker 6>we call a circadian phase delay and that is one

0:14:23.680 --> 0:14:26.280
<v Speaker 6>of the reasons that there's been a big push nationally

0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 6>by sleep advocates to move school start times later. But

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.560
<v Speaker 6>you asked another question, which is as you get older,

0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.520
<v Speaker 6>and I assume you didn't need from child adolescents per se.

0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:39.760
<v Speaker 2>I was asking this for Matt because as he gets older.

0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:40.920
<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry for Adam.

0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:46.960
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, well me too. But as people get older, from

0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.480
<v Speaker 6>middle aged to older adulthood, they tend to there are

0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.360
<v Speaker 6>some changes that we believe just happened as part of

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.480
<v Speaker 6>the aging process, where our short sleep gets a bit shorter,

0:14:56.920 --> 0:15:01.400
<v Speaker 6>a bit more fragmented, and it becomes import lighter. We

0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:04.280
<v Speaker 6>don't know as much of that deep restorative sleep. It's

0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.920
<v Speaker 6>harder for us to get and we think that that

0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:12.080
<v Speaker 6>happens even in the absence of medical conditions. Chronuct medical conditions.

0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:16.760
<v Speaker 6>But way more people have sleep problems than would be

0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:20.240
<v Speaker 6>accounted for by those normal age related sleep changes when

0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.160
<v Speaker 6>you look at older adults, and really the big drivers

0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 6>of those we think are medical problems and medications we

0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:30.920
<v Speaker 6>take for those problems. That's a big driver of why

0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:33.080
<v Speaker 6>we develop them, but it's not the only driver.

0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:35.640
<v Speaker 4>What do you think about sleep trackers? By the way,

0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:37.360
<v Speaker 4>we opened up talking about you know, I wear an

0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:39.600
<v Speaker 4>Apple Watch, but there are a number of other products

0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:44.280
<v Speaker 4>out there that purportedly track sleep. I think, look looking

0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:44.520
<v Speaker 4>at the.

0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:45.120
<v Speaker 8>Data and.

0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.600
<v Speaker 4>Assessing, you know, my experience with it, the Apple Watch

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 4>does a pretty good job. But I noticed I only

0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 4>go into deep sleep for the first, you know, thirty

0:15:56.120 --> 0:15:58.360
<v Speaker 4>forty minutes of the night, and then I never go

0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:00.320
<v Speaker 4>back there again. And I don't know if if that's

0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.400
<v Speaker 4>because the watch isn't very good at tracking the stages

0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:08.280
<v Speaker 4>of sleep, or because I really only had experienced deep

0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:09.800
<v Speaker 4>sleep at the beginning of my eight hours.

0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 7>So this is really a great point. There are two

0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:13.920
<v Speaker 7>sort of issues here.

0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:17.440
<v Speaker 6>First of all, we do under normal condition spend more

0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:19.880
<v Speaker 6>time in deep sleep in the first part of the

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:22.280
<v Speaker 6>night and less and less as the night wears on.

0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:27.000
<v Speaker 6>And conversely, we spend an increasing amount of sleep in

0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.720
<v Speaker 6>rem sleep when we do most of our dreaming as

0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:32.720
<v Speaker 6>the night goes on. So your watch might be right

0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.280
<v Speaker 6>about you spending more in the early part than in

0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:38.000
<v Speaker 6>the late part. But I will say this about sleep trackers.

0:16:38.320 --> 0:16:40.960
<v Speaker 6>The only way that you can definitively tell if someone

0:16:41.080 --> 0:16:44.800
<v Speaker 6>is awake or asleep is by putting electrodes or some

0:16:44.840 --> 0:16:47.320
<v Speaker 6>sort of a sensor on their head so that you

0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:51.720
<v Speaker 6>can detect electrical signals from the brain. That is the definitive,

0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:54.880
<v Speaker 6>gold standard measure of sleep. In the absence of that,

0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 6>we cannot rely solely on devices for truth.

0:16:58.600 --> 0:16:59.560
<v Speaker 7>For ground truth.

0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:03.480
<v Speaker 6>This is isn't awake or asleep, right, So that being said,

0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 6>for decades now, sleep researchers have relied on devices that

0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:10.440
<v Speaker 6>we've referred to as actigraphs a lot of the time.

0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:13.040
<v Speaker 6>And these are accelerometers that you would wear on your

0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.800
<v Speaker 6>wrist and they used to be clunky analog things, and

0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:20.960
<v Speaker 6>they've developed to be quite sleek and now and they

0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:24.480
<v Speaker 6>basically are accelerometers that and they capitalize on the fact

0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.520
<v Speaker 6>that people and animals as well, by the way, move

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:32.760
<v Speaker 6>less when they're sleeping in general. Yeah, right, and so yeah,

0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.600
<v Speaker 6>but those devices, those trackers, they're not all created equal.

0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:37.480
<v Speaker 6>I would put it that way and say, so that's

0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:38.240
<v Speaker 6>something to consider.

0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:39.360
<v Speaker 4>I need to get some brain.

0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:40.960
<v Speaker 2>Electro All right, You've got to come back soon because

0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:44.040
<v Speaker 2>I have still a million questions. So Adam, I feel

0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:46.199
<v Speaker 2>like it just relates. We all can relate to this.

0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:48.920
<v Speaker 2>Adam really enjoyed it. Adam Spira a professor in the

0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:51.280
<v Speaker 2>Department of Mental Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of

0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:53.720
<v Speaker 2>Public Health, joining us from Baltimore. I mean, when I

0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:55.880
<v Speaker 2>go to sleep, I'm like head to toe with stuff.

0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:57.640
<v Speaker 2>We'll talk about it later. Maybe what.

0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:02.679
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:06.840
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,

0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:10.200
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:13.440
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:16.639
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:20.760
<v Speaker 2>You might remember from the last monthly read on the

0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:23.440
<v Speaker 2>US labor market, it showed that the unemployment rate increased

0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:26.240
<v Speaker 2>for black people from April to May from four point

0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:29.239
<v Speaker 2>seven percent to five point six percent. Black women were

0:18:29.280 --> 0:18:32.760
<v Speaker 2>the most affected, specifically those who work in the public sector. Again,

0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.919
<v Speaker 2>according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, They're unemployment rate

0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:38.400
<v Speaker 2>increased from four point four percent in April to five

0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:40.600
<v Speaker 2>point three percent in May. That's a pretty big jump.

0:18:40.800 --> 0:18:43.320
<v Speaker 2>And matth there's a new documentary that tracks the paths

0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:46.760
<v Speaker 2>of three black women, all single mothers, who found a

0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 2>better way forward and jobs in the process. Check it out.

0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:53.800
<v Speaker 2>We want them to find a job, and then a

0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:55.840
<v Speaker 2>better job, and then a career.

0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:59.919
<v Speaker 5>To imagine myself in a career of posts to just

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:03.040
<v Speaker 5>the job was definitely far fetched.

0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:04.840
<v Speaker 1>My kid's very proud of me.

0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:08.280
<v Speaker 2>I know that I was working very hard district change.

0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:08.439
<v Speaker 6>Oh.

0:19:08.480 --> 0:19:11.520
<v Speaker 1>I like the journey has changed my life in a

0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:13.120
<v Speaker 1>way that I could never invasion.

0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:17.680
<v Speaker 2>All right again, a new short documentary film. We want

0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.840
<v Speaker 2>to get to the executive producer of video content development

0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.960
<v Speaker 2>and production at the workforce focused nonprofit Working Nation. She's

0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:27.440
<v Speaker 2>director of the short, Melissa Panzer. She's with us on

0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:29.560
<v Speaker 2>Zoom from Los Angeles. And forgive me they were three

0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:32.600
<v Speaker 2>women of color. I just want to clarify that. Melissa.

0:19:32.640 --> 0:19:34.840
<v Speaker 2>Good to have you here with Matt and myself here.

0:19:35.040 --> 0:19:37.480
<v Speaker 2>Tell us a little bit about this documentary. We have,

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:39.120
<v Speaker 2>of course heard a little clip, but tell us about

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:39.720
<v Speaker 2>these three women.

0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:41.680
<v Speaker 4>Sure well.

0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:43.720
<v Speaker 8>First of all, Carol, Matt, thanks so much for having

0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:48.800
<v Speaker 8>me this afternoon. This was These women are just an

0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 8>incredible story, all three of them. There's one woman who

0:19:52.520 --> 0:19:56.440
<v Speaker 8>immigrated from Jordan who's featured in the film. She didn't

0:19:56.440 --> 0:19:58.880
<v Speaker 8>speak any English when she arrived in the United States.

0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:01.840
<v Speaker 8>She lived it in domestic Island's shelter for forty two days.

0:20:01.920 --> 0:20:05.960
<v Speaker 8>Upon arrival, her husband kicked her and her children out

0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:09.280
<v Speaker 8>of their home when it was really, really a horrible

0:20:09.320 --> 0:20:12.760
<v Speaker 8>situation for her, and she learned English and got herself

0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:15.600
<v Speaker 8>educated and was able to go to this Goodwill program,

0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:19.199
<v Speaker 8>and we feature her in our story, and you know,

0:20:19.240 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 8>we feature her and two other women of color, both black,

0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:29.720
<v Speaker 8>who also just fell on really hard times and they

0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:36.399
<v Speaker 8>all found this program that gave them short term, you know,

0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:40.920
<v Speaker 8>quick credentials to get access to really really remarkable jobs,

0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:44.000
<v Speaker 8>and it was really an opportunity for them to change

0:20:44.040 --> 0:20:47.080
<v Speaker 8>the lives of their families, their children. They're all single.

0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:50.080
<v Speaker 8>And now at the end, at the end of the film,

0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:54.400
<v Speaker 8>you hear one of them saying, you know, how much

0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:57.240
<v Speaker 8>money do you make now? And they're joking around, and

0:20:57.320 --> 0:20:58.040
<v Speaker 8>it's quite a bit.

0:20:58.160 --> 0:20:58.800
<v Speaker 4>It's quite a bit.

0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:00.640
<v Speaker 8>I mean, you know, they're making it at least eighty

0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:02.200
<v Speaker 8>thousand dollars a year kind of thing.

0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:04.720
<v Speaker 2>That's quite a turnaround. Melissa tell us about this program

0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:07.800
<v Speaker 2>with good Will that you guys are doing. Exactly what

0:21:07.840 --> 0:21:09.880
<v Speaker 2>are what's the reskilling that's going on?

0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:15.760
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, So it's it training program that Google supports and

0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:20.359
<v Speaker 8>Coursera is it helps with the curriculum, and it's offered

0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:24.440
<v Speaker 8>at good Wills around the country. We filmed in Nashville,

0:21:25.160 --> 0:21:29.199
<v Speaker 8>and it's really short term certifications that gets access, that

0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:31.840
<v Speaker 8>gets folks access who maybe don't have the kind of

0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:36.240
<v Speaker 8>IT training that you'd expect to need to go into

0:21:36.280 --> 0:21:40.400
<v Speaker 8>one of these IT jobs. And it's free as long

0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:41.679
<v Speaker 8>as you qualify for it.

0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:46.040
<v Speaker 4>I mean, it's really an incredible story, a story of

0:21:46.040 --> 0:21:51.639
<v Speaker 4>hope for anyone. Right it's the Goodwill Digital Career Accelerator.

0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:56.800
<v Speaker 4>Is it only accessible now to women or women of color?

0:21:57.000 --> 0:21:59.760
<v Speaker 4>Or can anyone skill up with this program?

0:22:00.800 --> 0:22:05.560
<v Speaker 8>No, I'm pretty sure you have to meet a you

0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:10.479
<v Speaker 8>have to be under a certain financial sector to access

0:22:10.480 --> 0:22:13.879
<v Speaker 8>the program for free. But men, women, people of color,

0:22:14.160 --> 0:22:15.800
<v Speaker 8>white folks, it really doesn't matter.

0:22:16.400 --> 0:22:20.119
<v Speaker 4>And I mean, does it just teach you skills to

0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:22.760
<v Speaker 4>learn a specific job. Does it teach you general skills

0:22:22.800 --> 0:22:23.440
<v Speaker 4>and then you go and.

0:22:23.400 --> 0:22:24.240
<v Speaker 7>Apply for jobs.

0:22:24.240 --> 0:22:27.520
<v Speaker 4>Does it help you do the application for jobs as well?

0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:31.080
<v Speaker 4>Do you have programs with employers? Yeah?

0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:35.400
<v Speaker 8>So, Goodwill something I learned while I was filming this documentary.

0:22:36.320 --> 0:22:40.600
<v Speaker 8>Goodwill really sees themselves as a handholder from the beginning

0:22:40.640 --> 0:22:43.880
<v Speaker 8>to the end so of your life. Once you enter

0:22:43.960 --> 0:22:48.240
<v Speaker 8>a Goodwill job center, you are a client of Goodwill

0:22:48.320 --> 0:22:52.840
<v Speaker 8>for forever, and so they help. Once you've graduated the

0:22:52.880 --> 0:22:55.800
<v Speaker 8>program and you have your certification, they most certainly help

0:22:55.880 --> 0:22:59.160
<v Speaker 8>you with job placement. If that job doesn't work out

0:22:59.240 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 8>and you need their health, you go right back and

0:23:01.640 --> 0:23:03.680
<v Speaker 8>they'll help you again again.

0:23:03.720 --> 0:23:04.240
<v Speaker 2>Excuse me.

0:23:04.400 --> 0:23:08.359
<v Speaker 8>And for example in this piece, two of the women,

0:23:08.400 --> 0:23:12.280
<v Speaker 8>Shahira and Kara, they both work for Accenture and that's

0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:14.760
<v Speaker 8>by way of a relationship that Goodwill has with the

0:23:14.840 --> 0:23:17.200
<v Speaker 8>local eccentric offices in Nashville.

0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:19.080
<v Speaker 2>Well, I think about what you guys do at Working

0:23:19.200 --> 0:23:21.840
<v Speaker 2>Nation right it's looking at what are some of the

0:23:21.840 --> 0:23:24.640
<v Speaker 2>big workforce issues. And right now we continue to see

0:23:24.680 --> 0:23:28.160
<v Speaker 2>despite you know, we got jobless claims today, we still

0:23:28.200 --> 0:23:30.200
<v Speaker 2>see a tight labor force. You bring out any leader

0:23:30.200 --> 0:23:31.560
<v Speaker 2>and that's what they're going to talk about. I'm still

0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:34.080
<v Speaker 2>kind of fighting for talent here. Earlier in the week

0:23:34.080 --> 0:23:37.320
<v Speaker 2>we talked about nurses and the shortages there, the dynamic

0:23:37.400 --> 0:23:40.960
<v Speaker 2>and fighting for them. But I do wonder from what

0:23:41.000 --> 0:23:45.800
<v Speaker 2>I understand. The Goodwill Digital Career Accelerator, done in a

0:23:45.800 --> 0:23:50.080
<v Speaker 2>partnership with Google. They provided twenty nine million in funding

0:23:50.119 --> 0:23:53.159
<v Speaker 2>in grants from Google dot Org. But I do you

0:23:53.160 --> 0:23:55.159
<v Speaker 2>know here we are spending We're going to get into

0:23:55.680 --> 0:23:59.920
<v Speaker 2>our Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine, which is all about artificial intelligence.

0:24:00.520 --> 0:24:03.280
<v Speaker 2>And you know, we've heard people on our air, you know,

0:24:03.359 --> 0:24:06.040
<v Speaker 2>talking about if you are in any way trained in

0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:08.160
<v Speaker 2>the world of AI or coder or what have you,

0:24:08.160 --> 0:24:11.360
<v Speaker 2>you are in demand. But Google and other high tech

0:24:11.480 --> 0:24:15.240
<v Speaker 2>firms have got to be increasingly and continuing to think

0:24:15.240 --> 0:24:17.639
<v Speaker 2>about their workforce. Going phote in a program like this

0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:21.439
<v Speaker 2>can certainly help them in terms of training individuals with

0:24:21.480 --> 0:24:22.200
<v Speaker 2>the right skills.

0:24:23.760 --> 0:24:27.040
<v Speaker 8>Yes, one hundred percent. I mean no matter what happens

0:24:27.040 --> 0:24:31.080
<v Speaker 8>in the future, as we transition into a new age

0:24:31.160 --> 0:24:35.080
<v Speaker 8>of digital technologies with AI as an example, will always

0:24:35.160 --> 0:24:38.639
<v Speaker 8>need people who are well at least for right now.

0:24:38.960 --> 0:24:42.000
<v Speaker 8>We'll need people who are managing those technologies and thinking

0:24:42.040 --> 0:24:45.800
<v Speaker 8>bigger and better and something we keep hearing. And the

0:24:45.840 --> 0:24:49.359
<v Speaker 8>reason I think programs like this giving access and accessibility

0:24:49.400 --> 0:24:52.840
<v Speaker 8>to the women like Shakira and Kara and Chelsea is

0:24:52.880 --> 0:24:56.040
<v Speaker 8>because you only know what you know, and you know,

0:24:57.000 --> 0:25:00.679
<v Speaker 8>underprivileged black women and women of color know what they know,

0:25:00.840 --> 0:25:05.000
<v Speaker 8>and so they're giving the it world access and eyes

0:25:05.080 --> 0:25:07.720
<v Speaker 8>into perhaps things that they aren't thinking about when they're

0:25:07.720 --> 0:25:08.960
<v Speaker 8>building new technologies.

0:25:09.440 --> 0:25:12.160
<v Speaker 2>Right, exactly, right. If you start to kind of open

0:25:12.240 --> 0:25:14.239
<v Speaker 2>up a window and say, hey, listen, if you do this,

0:25:14.320 --> 0:25:17.480
<v Speaker 2>here's what you can kind of move towards, it's something

0:25:17.480 --> 0:25:20.200
<v Speaker 2>that they probably weren't familiar with. Melissa, thank you so much.

0:25:20.240 --> 0:25:23.040
<v Speaker 2>Really appreciate it. Melissa Panser, she's executive producer of video

0:25:23.040 --> 0:25:25.760
<v Speaker 2>content development and production over at Working Nation, as we said,

0:25:25.800 --> 0:25:29.480
<v Speaker 2>the nonprofit, and they do focus on workforce solutions. Joining

0:25:29.560 --> 0:25:32.200
<v Speaker 2>us on Zoom from Los Angeles. And again, of course

0:25:32.800 --> 0:25:35.280
<v Speaker 2>that short documentary interesting.

0:25:35.119 --> 0:25:39.240
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, very interesting stuff and I think provides real hope.

0:25:39.400 --> 0:25:41.800
<v Speaker 4>It's great that they have programs like this, and I

0:25:41.880 --> 0:25:45.200
<v Speaker 4>love to watch documentaries like this. So congratulations to Melissa.

0:25:45.240 --> 0:25:46.080
<v Speaker 1>I really do like them.

0:25:46.160 --> 0:25:47.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and I think about it. I feel like for

0:25:47.640 --> 0:25:49.920
<v Speaker 2>years two we talk increasingly about, you know, the tech sector.

0:25:49.960 --> 0:25:53.400
<v Speaker 2>They're thinking about their workforce and like tapping into you know,

0:25:53.560 --> 0:25:56.520
<v Speaker 2>middle schools, high schools to make sure kids have the

0:25:56.560 --> 0:25:59.600
<v Speaker 2>right training. You are listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week

0:25:59.600 --> 0:26:03.880
<v Speaker 2>on ThisDay, Carol Master, Matt Miller. This is Bloomberg Brother.

0:26:04.320 --> 0:26:07.480
<v Speaker 3>Mack a journal.

0:26:08.480 --> 0:26:09.480
<v Speaker 2>Now about you let me drive?

0:26:09.760 --> 0:26:11.800
<v Speaker 8>Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?

0:26:12.840 --> 0:26:13.199
<v Speaker 5>Honey?

0:26:13.320 --> 0:26:17.040
<v Speaker 2>Please, I'll do Gravel's I want to drive.

0:26:19.280 --> 0:26:20.200
<v Speaker 7>It's good question.

0:26:23.960 --> 0:26:28.520
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the clothes Well Bernd yelling

0:26:28.720 --> 0:26:30.399
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:30.520 --> 0:26:32.440
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, let's get to it. We've got just

0:26:32.480 --> 0:26:34.960
<v Speaker 2>about seventeen and a half minutes left in today's session

0:26:35.280 --> 0:26:37.480
<v Speaker 2>and we've got a stock rally that it's not just

0:26:37.600 --> 0:26:39.440
<v Speaker 2>mad about artificial intelligence.

0:26:41.440 --> 0:26:44.480
<v Speaker 4>No, it seems to be about the snacks aside. Sorry,

0:26:44.520 --> 0:26:47.760
<v Speaker 4>I have so many snacks in front of my microphone

0:26:47.800 --> 0:26:50.280
<v Speaker 4>on but that sometimes any like.

0:26:50.320 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 2>Having a toddler round. It's like I'm hungry.

0:26:52.720 --> 0:26:55.240
<v Speaker 4>I just need to growing.

0:26:54.920 --> 0:26:57.280
<v Speaker 2>Boy you are yeah yeah yeah yeah.

0:26:57.080 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 8>So yeah no.

0:26:57.840 --> 0:27:00.280
<v Speaker 4>There there seem to be a lot more drivers of

0:27:00.640 --> 0:27:03.840
<v Speaker 4>the rally, and oddly the FED is part of that,

0:27:04.040 --> 0:27:07.640
<v Speaker 4>even though the dock plot suggests they're going to raise

0:27:07.680 --> 0:27:08.720
<v Speaker 4>rates two more times.

0:27:08.800 --> 0:27:10.959
<v Speaker 2>Right, right, no rate cuts folks this year. All right,

0:27:10.960 --> 0:27:12.800
<v Speaker 2>so let's see what our guest has to stay. Brian

0:27:12.880 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 2>Railing is with us. He's head of Global fixed income

0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:18.280
<v Speaker 2>strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, based in Saint Louis.

0:27:18.320 --> 0:27:21.280
<v Speaker 2>Here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio at Bloomberg Headquarters

0:27:21.280 --> 0:27:23.720
<v Speaker 2>in New York City. Brian, it is good to have

0:27:23.800 --> 0:27:27.040
<v Speaker 2>you here with us. Good to see the market spreading

0:27:27.040 --> 0:27:30.560
<v Speaker 2>out breath in terms of gains. I think Gena Martin Adams,

0:27:30.600 --> 0:27:33.119
<v Speaker 2>did you say sixty stocks in the s and P

0:27:33.200 --> 0:27:38.000
<v Speaker 2>five hundred hitting above two hundred day moving averages. You

0:27:38.000 --> 0:27:40.320
<v Speaker 2>weren't listening because you were getting stacks. Let's go to Brian.

0:27:40.400 --> 0:27:41.760
<v Speaker 2>Let's go to Brian. So what do you make though

0:27:41.760 --> 0:27:43.240
<v Speaker 2>we are widing out in terms of breath?

0:27:43.680 --> 0:27:46.399
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean I think, quite frankly, the stock market.

0:27:46.400 --> 0:27:48.119
<v Speaker 3>I'm a fixed income god, but the stock market to

0:27:48.160 --> 0:27:50.720
<v Speaker 3>me seems to be you know, it's kind of in

0:27:50.760 --> 0:27:53.919
<v Speaker 3>a summer fling. Quite frankly. Bad news is good news.

0:27:53.960 --> 0:27:55.919
<v Speaker 3>Good news is good news. Any type of news is

0:27:55.960 --> 0:27:58.840
<v Speaker 3>good news. It just wants to go up. But I

0:27:58.840 --> 0:28:00.639
<v Speaker 3>think if you look under the surface, you look at

0:28:00.680 --> 0:28:02.960
<v Speaker 3>what the FEDS saying, I don't know how long it's

0:28:02.960 --> 0:28:04.840
<v Speaker 3>gonna last. Maybe maybe it can last through the summer,

0:28:04.880 --> 0:28:07.159
<v Speaker 3>but I don't think it is sustainable. The bond market

0:28:07.200 --> 0:28:08.320
<v Speaker 3>taken this stock market.

0:28:09.119 --> 0:28:10.879
<v Speaker 2>It's like you guys compete with each other, right, like

0:28:10.920 --> 0:28:14.000
<v Speaker 2>when you know bonds are yielding like they have, right,

0:28:14.160 --> 0:28:18.280
<v Speaker 2>they're looking pretty attractive without maybe the risk elements.

0:28:17.640 --> 0:28:20.760
<v Speaker 3>Exactly, very attractive without the risk. But also you look

0:28:20.760 --> 0:28:23.399
<v Speaker 3>at what the bond market's saying. The yield curve is

0:28:23.400 --> 0:28:27.520
<v Speaker 3>still inverted, and the inversion is version.

0:28:27.640 --> 0:28:30.120
<v Speaker 4>How many times has it happened every time the yield

0:28:30.119 --> 0:28:31.919
<v Speaker 4>curve inverts like this, we have a recession?

0:28:32.960 --> 0:28:34.679
<v Speaker 2>No, I thought, it's like you have to have to

0:28:34.760 --> 0:28:36.520
<v Speaker 2>have a recession, you have to have an inverted yield curve,

0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:38.640
<v Speaker 2>But every time it inverts doesn't necessarily.

0:28:38.680 --> 0:28:42.320
<v Speaker 3>Almost always almost And this is this is a lot, right,

0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:44.480
<v Speaker 3>this is this is big. We're almost back to the

0:28:44.960 --> 0:28:45.400
<v Speaker 3>just look at.

0:28:45.640 --> 0:28:47.440
<v Speaker 2>Could they touch a go recession? Couldn't it?

0:28:47.920 --> 0:28:50.600
<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean I don't think so, but I think

0:28:50.640 --> 0:28:53.200
<v Speaker 3>that is the Goldilock scenario, that that the market and

0:28:53.240 --> 0:28:55.840
<v Speaker 3>again good news is good news, bad news is good

0:28:56.000 --> 0:28:57.280
<v Speaker 3>good news, you know. I mean, I don't know how

0:28:57.320 --> 0:29:00.240
<v Speaker 3>you could look at that f o MC statement and

0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:02.760
<v Speaker 3>the press conference yesterday and come come come away doing

0:29:02.800 --> 0:29:04.840
<v Speaker 3>high fives like it seems like the equity markets day.

0:29:04.880 --> 0:29:06.640
<v Speaker 4>Well, we're still trying to figure it out, right, yeah,

0:29:06.760 --> 0:29:08.880
<v Speaker 4>I mean they the dot plot suggest they are going

0:29:08.920 --> 0:29:12.240
<v Speaker 4>to hike two more times, and before yesterday the argument

0:29:12.440 --> 0:29:15.400
<v Speaker 4>was definitely one more hike and that was it. Plus

0:29:15.560 --> 0:29:19.440
<v Speaker 4>we were still pricing in cuts this year now and

0:29:19.520 --> 0:29:22.000
<v Speaker 4>yesterday Powell, I don't know if he misspoke or if

0:29:22.040 --> 0:29:24.120
<v Speaker 4>he's just trying to drive a point home, but he said,

0:29:24.280 --> 0:29:27.040
<v Speaker 4>you're talking about a couple of years folks before we cut.

0:29:27.720 --> 0:29:30.160
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. I mean this ends in in one of two

0:29:30.200 --> 0:29:33.959
<v Speaker 3>ways in my opinion. Either the Fed has to continue

0:29:34.000 --> 0:29:36.920
<v Speaker 3>to hike to bring inflation under control and keep rates high.

0:29:37.040 --> 0:29:39.720
<v Speaker 3>I don't think that's a great outcome for the stock market,

0:29:40.000 --> 0:29:42.400
<v Speaker 3>or if the market is right, because the market is

0:29:42.440 --> 0:29:44.800
<v Speaker 3>still you know, the market's not pricing in these additional

0:29:44.840 --> 0:29:46.000
<v Speaker 3>hikes that the market if.

0:29:45.920 --> 0:29:48.080
<v Speaker 2>You look out for their u the pond market ecomic

0:29:48.560 --> 0:29:50.080
<v Speaker 2>both both okay both.

0:29:50.920 --> 0:29:53.160
<v Speaker 3>And if you look out, you know, you start to

0:29:53.160 --> 0:29:54.800
<v Speaker 3>see in the future to start to see some cuts

0:29:54.840 --> 0:29:56.880
<v Speaker 3>next year, et cetera. Right, which, of course the FEDS

0:29:56.880 --> 0:29:59.960
<v Speaker 3>that they're not doing. So either you know that scenario

0:30:00.080 --> 0:30:03.040
<v Speaker 3>in or scenary too, something breaks and that's how you

0:30:03.040 --> 0:30:05.920
<v Speaker 3>get the Fed to start cutting rates and just great news, right,

0:30:05.920 --> 0:30:07.840
<v Speaker 3>I mean, yeah, exactly, we got more.

0:30:07.720 --> 0:30:11.800
<v Speaker 4>Banks failing and it moves behind Regional to Wall Street,

0:30:11.800 --> 0:30:13.240
<v Speaker 4>then you're in real trouble exactly.

0:30:13.320 --> 0:30:14.600
<v Speaker 3>So that you know, that's why I think we're kind

0:30:14.600 --> 0:30:15.880
<v Speaker 3>of in what I'll call summer fling.

0:30:16.000 --> 0:30:18.760
<v Speaker 2>What are the flows that you're seeing, Well, you know

0:30:19.800 --> 0:30:21.640
<v Speaker 2>you're seeing so a lot of investors coming up in

0:30:21.640 --> 0:30:24.320
<v Speaker 2>Saint Brian. I want more exposure of the fixed income side.

0:30:24.920 --> 0:30:26.840
<v Speaker 3>You know, we had a lot of that earlier in

0:30:26.840 --> 0:30:30.560
<v Speaker 3>the year. You're seeing much less. Obviously, you're seeing the

0:30:30.560 --> 0:30:34.760
<v Speaker 3>bearish sentiment decrease. People I think are kind of tired

0:30:34.800 --> 0:30:38.560
<v Speaker 3>of hearing about recession and bearish and so you know,

0:30:38.600 --> 0:30:40.640
<v Speaker 3>it looks like the you know, the AI started it,

0:30:40.680 --> 0:30:42.480
<v Speaker 3>and it looks like it's just back to buying equities

0:30:42.480 --> 0:30:46.000
<v Speaker 3>for now. But again, again, I'm a bond guy. But

0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:49.960
<v Speaker 3>you know, you've seen earnings start to come down, right,

0:30:50.040 --> 0:30:52.600
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think they're they've been falling a little

0:30:52.600 --> 0:30:55.400
<v Speaker 3>bit kind of I don't want to call it.

0:30:55.440 --> 0:30:59.240
<v Speaker 2>So our equity analysts just talked about margin stabilization and improvement,

0:31:00.040 --> 0:31:01.560
<v Speaker 2>and we are talking about you look at some of

0:31:01.600 --> 0:31:04.360
<v Speaker 2>the inflationary numbers, right, some of the material costs are

0:31:04.360 --> 0:31:07.320
<v Speaker 2>coming down for companies and that's a good thing. Okay,

0:31:07.360 --> 0:31:09.120
<v Speaker 2>but you don't buy it.

0:31:09.360 --> 0:31:12.680
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I just don't see how sustainable if inflation

0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:14.880
<v Speaker 3>is going to come down. If it's sustainable, then inflation

0:31:14.960 --> 0:31:17.640
<v Speaker 3>is going to stay elevated, and then the Fed has

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:19.400
<v Speaker 3>to go much harder than the markets think.

0:31:19.600 --> 0:31:21.320
<v Speaker 4>Can I ask you yesterday we're talking about the Ken

0:31:21.360 --> 0:31:27.360
<v Speaker 4>Griffin story. He said he's embracing private credit, for example,

0:31:28.200 --> 0:31:32.440
<v Speaker 4>much yield and high yield as well as we get

0:31:32.600 --> 0:31:35.480
<v Speaker 4>closer to a recession. Does that make sense? If you're

0:31:35.520 --> 0:31:37.320
<v Speaker 4>worried of a recession next year, do you want to

0:31:37.360 --> 0:31:39.280
<v Speaker 4>be buying private credit and high yield debt.

0:31:39.440 --> 0:31:40.720
<v Speaker 3>It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

0:31:40.800 --> 0:31:44.280
<v Speaker 3>I mean, we are unfavorable on credit. I mean, credit

0:31:44.360 --> 0:31:48.360
<v Speaker 3>spreads are near kind of their tights here for in

0:31:48.400 --> 0:31:50.760
<v Speaker 3>the trading range like around four hundred or so, depending

0:31:50.760 --> 0:31:54.640
<v Speaker 3>on what index you use. You know, it makes no

0:31:54.720 --> 0:31:57.719
<v Speaker 3>sense to me. Again, if you're going to have a

0:31:57.760 --> 0:32:00.560
<v Speaker 3>recession or you know you're gonna can tinue to have

0:32:00.640 --> 0:32:03.640
<v Speaker 3>rates move higher on the short end, making borrowing costs

0:32:03.680 --> 0:32:06.160
<v Speaker 3>more expensive. You know, I just don't think the reward

0:32:06.200 --> 0:32:08.120
<v Speaker 3>is worth the risk. Quite frankly, I have to be

0:32:08.120 --> 0:32:09.320
<v Speaker 3>compensated much better.

0:32:09.080 --> 0:32:11.440
<v Speaker 2>So where do you want to go. Well, in the

0:32:11.440 --> 0:32:12.640
<v Speaker 2>fixed income world.

0:32:12.440 --> 0:32:15.440
<v Speaker 3>Sure, short term is the easy place to hang out.

0:32:15.480 --> 0:32:17.479
<v Speaker 3>You're getting paid great to hang out in the short end.

0:32:17.560 --> 0:32:21.600
<v Speaker 9>So US treasuries for the most part US Yeah, yeah,

0:32:21.640 --> 0:32:24.520
<v Speaker 9>because you start to get you know, developed, you start

0:32:24.520 --> 0:32:28.760
<v Speaker 9>to have the currency currency play, and it's not nearly

0:32:28.760 --> 0:32:29.320
<v Speaker 9>as pure.

0:32:30.360 --> 0:32:32.960
<v Speaker 3>You know, we got very aggressive last October around four

0:32:33.000 --> 0:32:35.800
<v Speaker 3>and a quarter on long bonds. We're seeing rates start

0:32:35.840 --> 0:32:38.479
<v Speaker 3>to kind of tick back close to there. So if

0:32:38.480 --> 0:32:41.080
<v Speaker 3>we saw you know, tens go four to four and

0:32:41.120 --> 0:32:42.800
<v Speaker 3>a quarter, you know, I would be locking that in

0:32:42.840 --> 0:32:43.360
<v Speaker 3>all day long.

0:32:43.280 --> 0:32:44.600
<v Speaker 2>Because do you think it's going to go for in

0:32:44.600 --> 0:32:45.000
<v Speaker 2>a quarter?

0:32:45.160 --> 0:32:47.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think of the FED, which I do think

0:32:47.360 --> 0:32:49.880
<v Speaker 3>the Fed you're talking, yeah, because I think the FED

0:32:49.960 --> 0:32:53.160
<v Speaker 3>is going to have to hike hike more, just like

0:32:53.200 --> 0:32:55.880
<v Speaker 3>they've said, and that should bring tens up a little bit,

0:32:56.880 --> 0:32:59.360
<v Speaker 3>you know, I mean, it just should lift the curve

0:32:59.360 --> 0:33:02.480
<v Speaker 3>a little bit. And to me, locking in those rates,

0:33:02.760 --> 0:33:07.400
<v Speaker 3>if you believe the FED is going to bring inflation

0:33:07.520 --> 0:33:09.720
<v Speaker 3>back down to two percent, you know, locking in.

0:33:09.760 --> 0:33:12.360
<v Speaker 4>Four to four in a quarter is fantastic.

0:33:11.840 --> 0:33:14.760
<v Speaker 3>Exactly exactly. So it depends if you believe the FED

0:33:14.840 --> 0:33:17.360
<v Speaker 3>or not. I believe the FED. I believe there's nothing

0:33:17.360 --> 0:33:20.160
<v Speaker 3>more important to them than bringing inflation back down.

0:33:20.280 --> 0:33:22.160
<v Speaker 2>Do you think that two percent target is real and

0:33:22.160 --> 0:33:22.760
<v Speaker 2>they're going to get there?

0:33:22.800 --> 0:33:22.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:33:23.120 --> 0:33:23.280
<v Speaker 6>It was.

0:33:23.360 --> 0:33:25.280
<v Speaker 3>Again the market doesn't believe. The market's like, oh, maybe

0:33:25.280 --> 0:33:27.680
<v Speaker 3>they'll change their mind. They'll be at the high two's,

0:33:27.680 --> 0:33:30.440
<v Speaker 3>there'll be three something exactly. I don't think so. Again,

0:33:30.480 --> 0:33:32.360
<v Speaker 3>I think the market's got it wrong. I really do

0:33:32.480 --> 0:33:34.840
<v Speaker 3>believe the FED is going to get inflation back down

0:33:34.880 --> 0:33:38.080
<v Speaker 3>to their targets. They are all their credibility relies on it.

0:33:38.920 --> 0:33:41.160
<v Speaker 4>He does seem so serious about it. He doesn't want

0:33:41.160 --> 0:33:42.280
<v Speaker 4>to repeat the mistakes.

0:33:42.320 --> 0:33:44.200
<v Speaker 2>And a fixed income dude, though sometimes.

0:33:43.840 --> 0:33:46.720
<v Speaker 3>Right it is especially much harder than this.

0:33:47.480 --> 0:33:50.440
<v Speaker 2>It's hard being anything. Last year, it feels like, nice

0:33:50.440 --> 0:33:52.000
<v Speaker 2>to have you here, Thank you. Yeah, I appreciate it.

0:33:52.040 --> 0:33:54.280
<v Speaker 2>Safe travels. What do they talk about in Saint Louis

0:33:54.280 --> 0:33:56.400
<v Speaker 2>got fifteen seconds? What's top of mind? Do they are

0:33:56.440 --> 0:33:57.880
<v Speaker 2>they obsessed with the FED like we are?

0:33:58.400 --> 0:34:00.760
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think if you're in front and on Saint Louis,

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<v Speaker 3>it's the cards. They're not good, you're awfme. So that

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<v Speaker 3>is the topic of conversation and not in.

0:34:07.560 --> 0:34:09.799
<v Speaker 2>A good way all right, Brian Railings, safe job as

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<v Speaker 2>head of Global fixed income Strategy. Will's part of your

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<v Speaker 2>investment instituted here in our interactive brokers studio you're listening

0:34:14.880 --> 0:34:16.399
<v Speaker 2>to launching the Bloomberg Business Screen.

0:34:17.160 --> 0:34:21.839
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

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