WEBVTT - Was Malthus right about carrying capacity? 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:02.840 Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. 0:00:03.160 --> 0:00:07.560 It's ready. Are you welcome to Stuff You Should Know 0:00:08.160 --> 0:00:16.479 from House Stuff Works dot Com? Hey, and welcome to 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:19.240 the podcast. I'm Josh Clark with me as always as 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:24.040 Charles W. Chuck Bryant sitting across from me. Um, and 0:00:24.320 --> 0:00:27.920 that makes the Stuff you Should Know the podcast? There 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:31.720 you go on the infur nation. That's far is Is 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:34.440 there somebody fast forwarding through this part right now? Huh? Yes? 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:40.360 So Chuck? Right it is Chuck. Yes. Still have you 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:44.680 noticed how often I say right? Yeah? It's mind numbing. 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.360 Plus someone will right in and say, do you know 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:50.559 usually right all the time? And um, it sounds like 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:53.199 I'm eating hard candy all the time. I know that's 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:55.160 not the case. You've never eaten anything in here. I 0:00:55.160 --> 0:01:02.760 can attest to that. Uh yeah, I'm overly celebratory, okay, Chuck. Uh. 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:05.800 As you know, I was a student of anthropology, still 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:10.800 consider myself such um And I first came upon this 0:01:10.920 --> 0:01:14.600 term called carrying capacity when I was I took this 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:19.720 life changing anthropology class, right uh And I don't remember 0:01:19.800 --> 0:01:22.160 the teacher's name anymore, but he was awesome. He introduced 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:25.839 me to probably my favorite article or essay of all time. Uh, 0:01:25.880 --> 0:01:28.199 the worst Mistake in the History of the human race, 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:32.920 right by Jared Diamond. Awesome stuff. Um any dustin Diamond 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:36.920 by Mike Diamond, by Jared Diamond, the guy who wrote 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:40.360 Collapse and Guns, Germs and steel and stuff. Um, that's 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:43.559 required reading in my opinion. I just think you should 0:01:43.640 --> 0:01:48.000 that essay, not necessarily as books. Um, but this I 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:51.080 was also introduced to carrying capacity and this there's this 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:53.680 really cool video. He showed it to get the point across. 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:56.160 And it's just a map of the world, right, and 0:01:56.200 --> 0:02:00.000 it's um it's there's red dots. It shows population growth 0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:02.920 and each red dot equals I think a million people. 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:07.320 And so it starts out in Africa, in Ethiopia, I 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:10.520 believe the creadle of humanity. And it starts there and 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:13.399 all you know, very slowly, there's like a it's time 0:02:13.400 --> 0:02:16.680 elapse obviously, so the years go by like that, and 0:02:16.880 --> 0:02:21.080 um uh, like the red dots start appearing very slowly, 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:24.320 start moving out of Africa, spreading to Asia, to Europe 0:02:24.480 --> 0:02:27.760 all that, and then um it starts to to pop 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:31.320 up around North America and South America and then all 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:33.760 of a sudden you get to the I think like 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:38.360 the sixteenth century, maybe a little later, the Industrial Revolution, 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:40.480 and all of a sudden, this map just goes red 0:02:41.080 --> 0:02:43.920 and it's really jarring. It really gets to point across 0:02:43.919 --> 0:02:49.240 it like how quickly population has grown in the world 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:52.560 and the impacts of it. You know, that's why he 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:55.320 coupled this with carrying capacity, because it's like, well, yeah, 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:58.320 population and growth. Who cares? Then you say, oh, well, 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:03.520 there's a limit to the amount of resources we have, um. 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:06.760 And that limit is called the carrying capacity of Earth, 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:11.280 meaning how much Earth can sustain human life. And there's 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:14.520 supposedly a point to it, right, Yeah, I got some stats. 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:18.760 There's my intro here. Here's a couple of stats, Josh, 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:23.760 the United Nations population Division estimates. Because five babies are 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:30.800 born every second, and you're like crying all that poop, 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:34.160 the world is going to have seven billion people by 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:37.640 years in they think seven billion. Yeah, we're at six 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:40.160 point nine two and change right now, So I mean 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.839 we're close. And um to to illustrate your point there 0:03:43.840 --> 0:03:48.920 about the red dots spreading like a disease, that is humans, um, 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:52.280 fewer than a billion people in eighteen hundred. Yeah, it 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:55.080 was like eight hundred million. Eight hundred dude. That mean 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:57.280 it seems like ancient history, but it ain't that long ago. 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:01.440 Three billion people in nineteen sixty and only six billion 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:06.080 people as recently as nine. Between nineteen fifty, chuck in nine, 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:10.880 the global population doubled from two point five billion to 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:15.360 five billion. That is cra azy. And behind this, that's 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:19.880 what they call exponential growth. It's not just adding like 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:23.800 a million people a year slow. Insteady, you're adding a 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:27.560 fixed number. It's you're adding you know, population is doubling 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:30.800 in forty years. That's exponential growth. And that is the 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:36.440 basis of what a guy named Thomas Robert Malthus uh In, 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:42.000 an eighteenth century English clergyman, predicted in his essay Um, 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:45.760 an essay on the principle of population, basically saying human 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:49.520 growth is exponential. We have a big problem because the 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:53.599 growth of food is not. It's linear. It's right, and 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:57.080 we're in trouble eventually. And he was fairly controversial at 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:59.919 the time. He was debated by a lot of people, 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:03.400 one of which was this dude named William Godwin, and 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:06.080 he had a theory called the perfectibility of society, which 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:08.880 is basically, you know, did we we're humans and we 0:05:09.000 --> 0:05:11.600 no matter how much we grow, we will be able 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:15.440 to counter that with advances and technology to allow us 0:05:15.440 --> 0:05:19.919 to grow. So they debated like crazy. Godwin subsequently was 0:05:19.960 --> 0:05:26.960 one of the first proponents of anarchism, and Malthus talked 0:05:26.960 --> 0:05:30.240 about eugenics way back then before it was eugenics. He said, 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:32.159 I could see something like this being possible, but he 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.440 said it's probably not something we should do. And he 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:40.120 also incidentally was the one of the first people to 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:45.159 uh to support or popularize the economic theory of rent. 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:48.520 Really yeah, well he was just all over the place, 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:51.080 wouldn't he. Well, but all kind of ties into population 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:53.520 because eugenics tied into it because he was talking about 0:05:53.680 --> 0:05:58.960 controlling population and rent, he theorized, was only possible with 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:03.240 a surplus of re sources um, which allows you to 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.400 own a second place and rent it or rent a 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:09.920 tool or you know whatever people renting man. So what 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:15.240 Mauthis is talking about is generally classified as economics, right, 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:19.080 but it's also it stretches into all sorts of dirty, 0:06:19.160 --> 0:06:25.920 nasty little areas like greed, um ecology, population control. So eugenics, 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:31.200 um family planning, abortion and fanticide, all sorts of stuff. Um. 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:35.280 That has a lot of implications, far reaching implications, right, 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:38.400 And so I didn't realize that there was somebody who 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:41.480 was a contemporary of him that argued, like, no humans 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:46.320 will use technology to outstrip, to outpace this mauth Mouthusian 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:48.200 curse is what it's called. Right, Yeah, that was more 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:49.719 than God when there was a few people too. I 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:51.919 didn't realize that it was at the time, but I 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:54.520 know that over the centuries people have been like mauth Is, 0:06:54.960 --> 0:06:57.600 that was a great idea, but you really missed the mark. 0:06:57.680 --> 0:07:00.719 And we're gonna use you as an example of how 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:04.960 badly somebody can can get it wrong, right, Because it 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:08.080 wasn't just technology. There's another aspect of it called the 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:13.280 demographic transition, which is basically as um as we get 0:07:13.280 --> 0:07:16.600 better with this technology, one of the things we come 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:21.000 up with this birth control um and while we're while 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:26.480 our mortality rates are are lowering, so to our fertility rates, 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:30.960 and we eventually come to this thing called the replacement rate, 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:35.000 which is two point one children per household leads to 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:39.640 zero population growth, right, And I think they set in 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:43.600 Western Europe the number was one point four in the 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:48.960 late nineties. Like some people are afraid that that Mauthis 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.200 was correct at this point, and other people say that, 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:54.040 like in Europe and Asia they worry about the opposite 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:55.480 because you know, they have the problem over there that 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:57.720 they're not enough young people to take care of the 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:02.280 retirees one day. Exactly, it's negative population growth. So who's 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:05.480 right they do estimate? Um, who's who they is? I 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:09.760 don't know, but it just said researchers estimate that population 0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:12.000 is not gonna level off until mid century at about 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:14.920 nine billion. Well that's at best. If that's if we 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:17.560 do level off, we could continue to keep going the 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:19.680 rate we're at now, the replacement rate that leads to 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:22.800 zero population growth, which is two point one right now, 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:26.720 we're at two point six worldwide and with Africa UM 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:29.920 skewing us the other way. Subsidaria in Africa has about 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:33.240 a five point one fertility rate, which means for every 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:36.199 household there's five point one children born. Does that point 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:38.679 one child? You always feels so bad for hus the 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:43.760 knee down, you know, on one leg um. But the uh, 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:46.199 if we can get to zero population growth, then we're 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:48.199 not going to really have to deal with the Mauthusian 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:52.760 curse possibly ever, but we're not. Then that's that's but 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:55.760 that's one thing that's um that mouth Is didn't account 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:59.240 for is things like as society has become more educated, 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:03.280 fertility rates tend to drop dramatically. So that's that's another 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:05.800 way to put it off too. So he was scoffed at, 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:07.440 Like you said, there's a lot of people out there 0:09:07.440 --> 0:09:11.240 who think he he was he missed the mark. But um, 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:13.560 people have been doing a little bit of math lately 0:09:14.040 --> 0:09:17.880 and have figured out that, Um, it's entirely possible that 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:20.880 he's right. That's somewhere down the line, He's right. Yeah, 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:23.719 And at the basis we should say of Mouths, his 0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:27.679 whole thing is a lack of food and water really, 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:30.800 and we need air, food, water, shelter and all that stuff. 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:35.280 But what he was mainly centered on was eventually the 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:38.480 food growth will not match up with the population growth. 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:42.240 And a billion people go hungry every day already. So 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:44.360 so I might argue that that's already the case. So 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:49.120 let's talk about carrying capacity, chuck Um, if we had 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:52.480 not transitioned, which we have, which kind of proves the 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:59.240 UM positive positivists camp Um that we can be technological. 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:03.800 If we hadn't transition from hunter gatherer to agriculture UM, 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:05.959 the care and capacity of Earth would have been reached 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:09.760 at about a hundred million people. Yes, because there's just 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:11.960 so many animals running around that we can kill. There's 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:14.679 only so many berries that are going to occur naturally 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:19.400 on the on the vine. Right. But we did transition 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:23.040 to agriculture UM before we hit the hundred million mark, 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:28.400 possibly maybe not UM farming, and we we began to 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:34.080 use technology which is growing crops to feed ourselves. And 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:38.360 then we reached another point right UM where we hit 0:10:38.400 --> 0:10:44.439 what was called the green revolution, remember that UM, where 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:46.280 there was a lot of people who were saying about 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:49.240 a billion people are going to die because we are 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:52.240 no longer We're not going to be able to provide 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:55.679 food for all the people here. Um. We've we've come 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:58.320 up with great vaccines and all this other technology that's 0:10:58.640 --> 0:11:02.320 lowering the mortality rate. But that just means people are 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:04.800 living longer and they need food longer over the over 0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:08.000 their lifespan. Right, So what are we gonna do? Norman 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:10.200 Borlog comes along and says, you know what we're gonna 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:15.959 doing exactly tapioca pudding for everybody and a care bear 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:18.640 in every garage. No, they go ahead with what he 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:20.360 said because he was a genius. He said, we're gonna 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:23.400 maximize the yield that we get out of arable land. 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:25.600 We're not just gonna plant some seeds and be like, 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:29.520 hope you grow. We're going to apply tons of pesticide, 0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:33.960 tons of fertilizer, and we're going to squeeze corn the 0:11:34.000 --> 0:11:38.480 size of your torso out of every every plant. Right, Yeah, 0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:41.240 he wasn't some like awful mad That sound makes him 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.600 sound like some awful mad scientists, though in the eyes 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:47.400 of a lot of environmentalists he he well, I mean 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:51.040 think about all the runoff, all the soil depletion. Also, 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:54.240 didn't he also want a Nobel Prize? Sure? Yeah, he's 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:56.960 credited with saving that billion people that were predicted to 0:11:57.000 --> 0:12:00.199 starve because he came in just in time because Earth 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:03.920 would have reached this carrying capacity for agriculture. So we've 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:07.120 had at least two different events where we were able 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:11.360 to leap forward through technology and avoid the Malthusian curse. Right, Yes, 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:13.920 So there are people out there who say, well, you know, 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.600 we're we're we're going to avoid it again, but what 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:18.760 will that be? Sure and come up with another one. 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:22.160 So I'm sorry, chok, we would have hit the carrying 0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:25.560 capacity a hundred million where we hunter gatherers? Right? What 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.760 are the predictions now? Well, they say, and this is 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:31.360 where what I think is really interesting and completely sad, 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:35.079 is that we have a potential caring capacity of two 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:39.200 billion to forty billion, clearly past the two So one 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:41.760 might ask, how can it be that big of a range, 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:46.200 And the answer is lifestyle. And here's a very sad 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:50.080 sat If the entire earth live like middle class Americans, 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:53.280 not the super rich, who you know, probably consume more 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:56.960 energy and the like than your average human, just regular 0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:01.280 middle class American folks consume about three point three times 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:05.800 the subsistence level of food and two hundred and fifty 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:09.800 times the subsistence level of water clean water. And that 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.040 means the Earth if we if everyone was like us, 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:15.360 the Earth could only support about two billion people. So 0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:19.680 what's going on is of the Earth is consuming I 0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:22.400 don't have the percentage, but the other seventy percent of 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.640 the Earth is left with what's left, which is really 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:30.760 really it's just a it's a uh disparity in the 0:13:30.800 --> 0:13:34.000 allocation of resources and that's consumed. So that's why it 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.160 can be a range of two billion to forty billion 0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:39.120 because of the different lifestyles. If if everyone lived like 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:41.840 there would be plenty for everyone and no one would 0:13:41.840 --> 0:13:45.959 be starving. No, if everybody lived like we would all 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:51.240 we would be like sorry, well the um Yeah, that's 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:53.520 that's where the forty billion number comes in. I've seen 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:55.320 thirty and I've seen forty on the high end for 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:58.080 the carrying capacity, and that's where every square inch of 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:01.640 arable land is being cultivated to its maximum yield, and 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:03.959 all people live in high rises that are as high 0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:06.920 as we can build them right now, right um, And 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:13.040 we're mining UM asteroids for uh, for UM minerals and 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:15.960 all that. We're not we're no longer going we're no 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:20.680 longer going to the Earth. We're going into outer space. Possibly. 0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:23.280 I don't think that that shouldn't have started about fifty 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:27.560 years ago, right um. But the that forty billion prediction 0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:32.359 is um based on the absolute minimum requirements, and everybody, 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:36.040 forty billion people living on the planet UM all using 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:39.560 the minimum amount, which is four liters of water a 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:44.440 year and about three ms of food a year, mostly grains, 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:48.520 and you can basically kiss meat goodbye because we need 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:51.720 that land to grow our grains rather than grow grains 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:54.160 to feed cows, which is another way that the West 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:58.480 consumes resources more than more than its fair share through 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.720 a meat rich diet, which just you're not only eating 0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:04.920 the meat, you're eating the grains that the meat ate. Right, 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:11.560 So chuck, and let me ask you something. If you 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:14.760 had if you went home and turned on your tap 0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:17.360 and there was hot water and it was flowing, and 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.480 it was as much as you liked, right, would you 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:24.280 care how you were getting that? What do you mean 0:15:24.320 --> 0:15:28.360 how it was being delivered through my faucet? Yes? Uh? 0:15:28.480 --> 0:15:31.360 Is this the trict question? No, it's not. Let me rephrase. 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:35.040 If you went home and turned on your hot water 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:37.920 and there's as much hot water as you wanted, and 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:40.680 it was you knew it was coming from a sustainable source, 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:44.760 would you care if it was sustainable? Yeah? I guess not. 0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.920 But I'm kind of like a water saver. So your 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.280 water saver. What if you knew you didn't really have 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.960 to save water because it was so sustainable, you wouldn't care. 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:58.120 No one cares as long as we have the luxuries 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:01.120 that were afforded. It does, and you don't care if 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:05.240 it came from burning banana appeals, No one cares. The 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:08.560 problem is that the problem with the course that we're 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:13.440 on apparently right now, is that we are um using 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:18.280 technology not to get more from less, but to get 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:23.560 more from more, more cheaply. Right. Yeah, it's um it's 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:25.480 a uniquely human thing they call it in the article, 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:29.920 which is pretty much true. But technological advancement is in 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.960 many ways leading to our habitat destruction. Ideally, at this 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:38.680 point everyone would be on solar and the massive companies 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:40.920 would be solar powered and all that kind of thing. 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:44.440 And that's another great point is you know, you don't 0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:46.800 care where your electricity comes from. Do you care if 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:50.000 it comes from a solar panel or wind? No, of 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:53.720 course you don't. You just want your electricity. So if 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:57.200 we had invested, or if we could invest our technological 0:16:57.240 --> 0:17:02.680 advances into um get what we have now from less 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:06.840 from solar radiation or wind power, then we would be 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.560 that that's true cutting edge technology, rather than you know, 0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:15.920 figuring out ways to deplete things faster, more cheaply, which 0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.200 is the way we're going. Yeah, like thinking of let's 0:17:18.200 --> 0:17:23.600 say a more efficient oil driller or a more efficient 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:27.200 way of getting coal from a mountain, i e. Mountaintop removal. 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:30.200 So they're using technology, but they're using in ways that 0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:34.680 are also destroying the habitat. And sustainability is all about 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.720 finding the right balance in your habitat. So here's here's 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:40.440 the conclusion I came to from reading this right the 0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:45.200 argument from the positivists camp. I don't even think I'm 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:48.600 using that word correctly. But um, the people who are 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:54.000 the optimists camp, sure duh, right are Um they're saying, no, 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:57.639 mouth has was incorrect because he failed to account for 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:03.119 human ingenuity. And as population grows, so to do the 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:09.600 number of geniuses, and that's where innovation comes from. Right, Um. 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:14.879 The I think the the optimists are missing a point 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:18.600 in their model, and that is greed. You can't really 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:27.520 sway greed to to benefit human ecology, can you know? 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.600 And you can't convince an entire population of people to 0:18:30.680 --> 0:18:33.160 change their lifestyles, which is what it would take. That's 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:36.800 what I'm saying you you can't because they don't care. 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:40.080 But if you could deliver them that same amount of 0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:44.040 hot water, that same electricity, and it was coming from 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:47.159 a sustainable source. No one's going to fight that, right. 0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:49.960 It's having to get them to fight that fight to 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:53.040 get the people who are controlling it to change over. 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:56.800 They're not going to do that. So there's that fatal 0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:59.440 flaw in that model that the gloom and doom camp 0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:03.720 has over the UM optimist camp, and that they don't 0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:06.760 account for for greed. Have you ever seen who killed 0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:09.800 the electric car? No? I never did. I encourage people 0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:12.240 to see that. That's pretty scary. The e V one was. 0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:14.359 I mean, I don't know if you remember, but the 0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:17.280 e V one was. It was ready to go. There 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:19.480 were TV commercials you can look up EV one commercial 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.960 on YouTube and they were running them on television. Electric 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:26.080 electric cars are here, They're not coming, they are here, 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:30.440 and boom it was gone. Yeah, I'll check it out 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:32.640 and I'll give you a few guesses as to why 0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:35.800 it left so quickly. And not only were they gone, dude, 0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:47.320 they literally gathered them all up and crushed them many time. Exactly. Yeah, sad, 0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:50.640 but go go rented. It's cool. Yeah, and um powerful 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:53.280 lobbies out there. What else you got? I got nothing, man. 0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:54.760 This is this is a good one to chew on 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:56.800 for people. I think I think so too. We just 0:19:56.880 --> 0:19:59.879 encourage people like we always do, just to you know, 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:02.119 we're not saying, you know, quit your job and go 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:04.119 like build solar panels for a living and live on 0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:06.520 a on a wind farm. You can do that, that'd 0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:09.240 be awesome. But little little things, little positive steps, they've 0:20:09.240 --> 0:20:11.640 say a little water, say a little power. I disagree, man, 0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:14.639 what I don't think the onus is on the people. 0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:18.800 I think the onus is on the the people who 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:26.320 are misdirecting technological advancement. I'd say it's on bothagree you 0:20:26.320 --> 0:20:28.040 don't think that this is on the people to conserve 0:20:29.400 --> 0:20:32.480 I think I think it. I think it is. I 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:34.320 think we've put it on the people, but I don't 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:39.159 think it's going to make enough of an impact. All right, 0:20:39.240 --> 0:20:41.159 I think it's on the policy makers. That's who I 0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:43.760 think it's on. I would I think I think it's 0:20:43.760 --> 0:20:46.800 on both. Um. Okay, well that's a debate to be 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:49.600 played out on the Facebook page if you ask me, right, yeah, man, 0:20:49.640 --> 0:20:52.160 we should set a form um. So if you want 0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:54.880 to learn more, type and has the Earth reached its 0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:58.639 carrying capacity? Or Thomas Malthus M A L T h 0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:01.320 U s in this search part how stuff works dot Com. 0:21:01.359 --> 0:21:04.000 It will bring up some pretty cool stuff. Well, then 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:07.440 that means it's time for listener mail. All right, Josh, 0:21:07.480 --> 0:21:10.320 I'm gonna call this, uh, how to make a my 0:21:10.400 --> 0:21:15.200 teenage son listen to your show from Portland, Oregon. Hi, 0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:18.239 guys and Jerry. When you have a teenager, you will 0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:20.000 quickly learn that you can't just tell them what to 0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:23.160 do and expect them to do it. I remember those days. 0:21:23.880 --> 0:21:26.800 It's so frustrating because as a parent, you know that 0:21:26.920 --> 0:21:28.879 your kid will love something and get lots out of it, 0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:30.720 but you can't come right out and say it, or 0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:32.879 they will never ever try the thing you told them 0:21:32.920 --> 0:21:36.320 to try. For example, your podcast. I knew for a fact, 0:21:36.920 --> 0:21:38.639 like I know that it will reign in Portland, that 0:21:38.720 --> 0:21:41.080 my thirteen year old son Ethan would really love stuff. 0:21:41.080 --> 0:21:43.640 You should know because I love the podcast. I've turned 0:21:43.680 --> 0:21:45.520 other people onto it and they love it. But I 0:21:45.600 --> 0:21:47.639 knew I had to be sneaky in order for my 0:21:47.680 --> 0:21:50.679 son to give it a try. Ethan is a fencer 0:21:51.240 --> 0:21:53.200 and at the time was also working on a research 0:21:53.240 --> 0:21:57.040 project about Renaissance jousting and tournaments. So one Saturday I 0:21:57.119 --> 0:22:00.000 was working in the kitchen. I played how nights were 0:22:00.560 --> 0:22:02.800 Uh to catch his interest. Every time he came in 0:22:02.800 --> 0:22:05.919 the kitchen, I'd hit play. When he leave, I'd hit pause. 0:22:08.000 --> 0:22:09.600 I would figure he would just think, Man, these guys 0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:12.160 take a long time to finish the center. He would 0:22:12.200 --> 0:22:14.240 hang around the kitchen longer and longer each time, and 0:22:14.240 --> 0:22:16.040 I could tell I almost had him on the line 0:22:16.200 --> 0:22:19.760 like I was noodling. Although you would say I had 0:22:19.800 --> 0:22:22.840 him on the arm. Yeah, there's no mine. When it 0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:24.840 was over, he said he already knew everything you talked 0:22:24.840 --> 0:22:27.360 about in the podcast, but I could tell he was intrigued. 0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:29.399 Then I hit him with the Scooby Doo Show and 0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:31.840 that was it. You had another fan. Now he has 0:22:31.880 --> 0:22:34.840 downloaded the app for his iPod and listens each night 0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:38.680 as he's going to sleep. And that tent, Yeah, that's 0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:43.679 from Afton in a very sneaky mom thank you in Portland, Oregon. 0:22:43.880 --> 0:22:46.840 That also kind of ties into the Colts and Brainwashing 0:22:46.840 --> 0:22:50.120 episodes two, didn't it? Yeah? And she said um. When 0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:51.679 she replied, I asked her if I could read this. 0:22:51.720 --> 0:22:53.879 She said sure, And she said, I guess he'll know 0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:57.000 my little trick now, but he'll get such a kick 0:22:57.000 --> 0:22:59.880 out of being mentioned Ethan the fencer, he will forget 0:22:59.880 --> 0:23:03.119 the yeah, and at least he can rest assured that 0:23:03.160 --> 0:23:06.120 she's not like putting anything in his soup to get 0:23:06.160 --> 0:23:08.560 him to do what she wants. She uses more subtle 0:23:08.560 --> 0:23:11.920 tactics than that. Right. I wish you could put something 0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:14.000 in soup to make people listen to this. I'd be 0:23:14.000 --> 0:23:16.840 putting it in soup. Yeah, that's a good idea. I 0:23:17.119 --> 0:23:19.320 put it in all soups. I'll tell you what, if 0:23:19.359 --> 0:23:21.280 you have any suggestions of what we can put in 0:23:21.359 --> 0:23:23.320 people's soup to get them to listen to stuff you 0:23:23.320 --> 0:23:25.440