1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Daily we bring you 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. The single headline, John, 6 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: I see and this will be good to get into, 7 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:34,199 Speaker 1: Jeremy stretch out of g t FX at C I 8 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:36,919 Speaker 1: b C is what they do which we don't do, 9 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 1: is they go out three years to two thousand twenty 10 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: five and there's a miraculous conception of inflation plunging. There's 11 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,560 Speaker 1: no other way to put it. From an eight level 12 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,199 Speaker 1: down to a stunning two point four percent. That is 13 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: optimism of a certain level. Jeremy, stretching all your years 14 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: of central bank watching, Can they get out near three 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: years and look for an inflation and disinflationary trend? Is 16 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: the ECB publishers today or is that wish for thinking? Well? 17 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 1: I think it's interesting that the CB are still anticipating 18 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 1: the inflation will still be above their target threshold by 19 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: the end of twenty twenty five. I wouldn't have been 20 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: surprised that the ECB felt it would appropriate, or at 21 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: least the ECB staff had attempted to try and find 22 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 1: a narrative that allowed the inflation profile to get back 23 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: to target. But clearly because of the upward revisions that 24 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 1: we've seen in the profile that both this year and 25 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 1: next year, it is going to be very very difficult 26 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 1: to see or it's going to be a very tough 27 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 1: ask for the ECB to be able to force or 28 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 1: drive inflation with pressure down without probably a greater degree 29 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:46,960 Speaker 1: of economic dislocation that they're currently pricing into their forecast. 30 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: So I think, but perhaps a little bit too too 31 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: ambitious to optimistic contems to the growth trajectory, and if 32 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 1: if we are going to see inflation falling back, it 33 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: is going to be a very much a challenge that 34 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: is going to have to be met by probably a 35 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: more aggressive policy reaction than the market has been or 36 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: certainly we have been considering well. Yeld declimbing in response 37 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: to that, particularly the front end of the BUN market. 38 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 1: Your German two years up by eleven basis points to two, 39 00:02:10,440 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 1: the ten years up by eight or nine basis points 40 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 1: on a ten year right now to a round about 41 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: two percent two point zero two percent. For give me 42 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: for throwing so many numbers at the war, but I 43 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: do want to go through the inflation projections again from 44 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: the u c B. We now see average inflation reaching 45 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: eight point four percent in twenty two before decreasing a 46 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: six point three percent in twenty three, with inflation expected 47 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 1: to decline markedly over the course of the year. These 48 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,239 Speaker 1: are still really high, Prince Jeremy. Just to go through 49 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: core and their projections there projected to average three point 50 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: four percent in twenty two point three percent in twenty five. 51 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: That's headline. When you strip out food and energy, that's 52 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: projected to be three point nine percent on average in 53 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 1: twenty two and then rise to four point two percent 54 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: in twenty three. Can we just talk about that clip, 55 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,799 Speaker 1: High Jeremy, that they're looking for in core inflation through 56 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: next year. Your thoughts on that and just how far 57 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,360 Speaker 1: they can push the terminal rate given what you expect 58 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: to happen with GDP on what they're looking for as well. Yes, 59 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 1: that's right, I think that, I mean, I think you know, 60 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 1: when we've you've obviously been talking a lot about the 61 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 1: FED projections over the course of the last twelve hours 62 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: or so, and there is a real dichotomy in terms 63 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: of the inflation profiles that we're seeing from those requisite 64 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: central banks, and the pace of the moderation in terms 65 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:24,320 Speaker 1: of the Eurozone is very very glacial in effect. And 66 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 1: of course, as you quite rightly say, those core inflationary 67 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: pressures are going to be pronounced over the medium run, 68 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: and that is going to be a real difficulty for 69 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: the for the European central banks. So I think in 70 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 1: the context of some of the discussions you're having after 71 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: the FED last night, is that who has the greatest 72 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: potential policy problem with policy dilemma than I think in 73 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: the ECB definitely falls into that remit because of course, 74 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: as we know, there are those fragmentation risks as well. 75 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: So it's going to be very difficult to see how 76 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:51,480 Speaker 1: the ECB is going to be able to square the 77 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: circle by trying to tighten policy but without creating significant 78 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: degrees of uncircaity against what is still a backdrop of 79 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: very lated and amplified core inflation repressures. And they do 80 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: can see that the Euro Area economy may contract in 81 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: the current quarter and next, So there is a hint 82 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: at that recession, although not necessarily coming out with the 83 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: same kinds of prognostications as the Bank of England also 84 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: talking about food and underlying inflation, Jeremy is the e 85 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: c B, which I think it was a lot more 86 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 1: interesting in terms of the statement than the Federal Reserve. 87 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,839 Speaker 1: Is the ECB just sort of getting ahead of what 88 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,839 Speaker 1: the federal have to deal with and recognizing a stickier 89 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 1: inflation for a longer period that goes beyond what the 90 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: markets are currently allowing for. Yes, I think that's true. 91 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: I think we are going to see core inflation proven 92 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: to be remarkably sticky. So yes, we can see headline 93 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: inflation repressures gradually easy if we are correct in assuming 94 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: that those energy forward curves are correct. But core core inflation, 95 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: in terms of service driven inflation, I think is going 96 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 1: to be much more challenging to drive out of the system. 97 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: And it may well be the case that we see 98 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: many central banks facing difficulty to really squeeze core inflation 99 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: back towards target thresholds over a two year four past arizons. 100 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 1: So in a sense, that's why it's still interesting that 101 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: the CB are still struggling to get back to their 102 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: target threshold even in year three. And that just underlines 103 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 1: that inflationary pressures I think are going to be much 104 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: more pronounced and stickier, particularly if we're going to see 105 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: wage growth remaining relatively elevated because of still relatively tight 106 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 1: lego markets, even if we're seeing a moderation in macro activity. 107 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: What a challenge. Jeremy Stretcher C I p C. Thank you. 108 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: I'm already leaning too. January twelve. Well, you know we've 109 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: got a job jobs report January six. I believe it is, 110 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: but but I'm sorry, I'm already going to January talk 111 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 1: to get another look at inflation. Someone doing that as 112 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 1: well as Jonathan Pingle, chief you US Economics that you 113 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 1: be as security Jonathan, I gotta study for you in 114 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 1: your academics from years ago, and that is simply, is 115 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 1: there any history of any central bank modeling and getting 116 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: right a major three year disan flationary trend the FEDS 117 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: trying to do it, and in technical this morning the 118 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: e c B has elevated up inflation for this year 119 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 1: and they go out to a nirvana in two thousand 120 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: twenty five. Is there any predictability to that exercise? Well? Thanks, Tom, 121 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: thanks for having me. First of all, Yeah, forecasting inflation 122 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: is hard. Um. I I think that has been proven, um, 123 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 1: in spades in when we look back at history. You know, 124 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 1: getting this exactly right on the way down is probably 125 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: going to be as hard as getting it right on 126 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 1: the way up. Um. When I think about the central 127 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 1: bank experience, UM, you know, you've had some immaculate disinflations 128 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: following World War Two. Is is one example. UM. It 129 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: was certainly the case the Chairman Green's band seemed to be, 130 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: you know, kind of ahead of the curve and the 131 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: productivity gains in the mid nineties and the disinflation that 132 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: that led to. UM. But you know, let's face it, 133 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: a three year, two year, even one year head inflation 134 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: forecast at the moment um, it is pretty difficult. UM. 135 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: And in some respects UM. You know, I think the 136 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 1: FED has been dealt a better hand than the e 137 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 1: C BUM because they are getting some data in hand 138 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: that starts to look like there is some real disinflation coming. 139 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: What do you make though of how much of this 140 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: disinflation really stems from some of the more variable areas, 141 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: which include gas, natural gas, gasoline, crewe products. Well, you know, 142 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 1: in the US. You know, certainly the energy um, you know, 143 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: the energy prices moving up and down, UM, you know 144 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 1: has played a role. But you've also got um a 145 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: number of components of inflation, like you know, use car 146 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: prices that you know, you know exploded higher in new 147 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: car prices up UM, and we're already seeing use car 148 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: prices fall two percent a month the last few cp 149 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 1: I s. So UM. It is a lot of our 150 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 1: little components. And you know, what goes up, you know, 151 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: could come down quite quickly in the US. I mean, 152 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: you know, in Europe and the Eurozone, you know, the 153 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: reasons to think inflation might be a little stickier than 154 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: the USUM, particularly if the Fed does engineer and increase 155 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 1: UM in unemployment UM. You know, in the US that 156 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 1: does typically prove somewhat disinflationary, even if you think there's 157 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 1: a flat Phillips curve. You know, in the Eurozone, they 158 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: don't have quite the same flexibility in their labor markets UM, 159 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: which you know, could also lead to sort of more 160 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 1: persistence UM in the Eurozone relative to the US for inflation. 161 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 1: Although the e c B did come out with perhaps 162 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: an even more hawkish statement than the Federal Reserve in 163 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:39,679 Speaker 1: terms of how much higher they revised upward their inflation 164 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 1: expectations for this year, for next year, for the year after. 165 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 1: From your vantage point or the balance of risks, have 166 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: they changed when it comes to both the FED and 167 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: the ECB in terms of either going too far or 168 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 1: not going enough. Before it was not going enough. Do 169 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: you think now it's more evenly balanced? Oh? Yeah, No, 170 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,599 Speaker 1: I definitely, I think it's more evenly balanced. Li Sa, No, 171 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,559 Speaker 1: it's a great point, um. I mean, you know, we 172 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: actually are expecting a pretty weak U S economy in 173 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: the latter part of three. You know, that's both because 174 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 1: households are exhausting their excess savings, which we think is 175 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: going to you know, start to bind for more household 176 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: and restrain consumption. And and on top of that, we're 177 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: just gonna still pile the mounting effects of you know, 178 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 1: what's been a very rapid tightening cycle. The e CV 179 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: is a little bit further behind the FED. There they 180 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 1: are playing some catch up, um, but there as well, 181 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: you know, they are facing a tough economic outlook as well. 182 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 1: So I do think these risks are becoming more balanced. 183 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:42,520 Speaker 1: Are we in neutrality? For rates? Yeah? In the US 184 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: are we in neutrality in terms of the central bank ballet, 185 00:09:48,240 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 1: So I would actually I mean, I you know, chure 186 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: Pal yesterday said he thought policey rates were in restrictive territory. 187 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: I would agree with that. I mean, there's a pretty 188 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: big margin of error for whether or not, um, you're 189 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: really at neutral. Um. I don't mean to interrupt, but 190 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 1: just because Jonathan, just because of time, this is really important. 191 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: What is the single variable of our mystery about that 192 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:15,199 Speaker 1: collar around neutrality? Is it inflation? Is it jobs? Is 193 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 1: a g d P? Is it just we don't know? Well, 194 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: I mean we just don't know. I mean it's also 195 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: a longer run concept. I mean, you know there's a 196 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: lot that goes into the neutral rate. It's our demographics 197 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: are productivity growth, thank you, um, but it's you know, 198 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: pinning it down in real time. It's your Powell's explained. 199 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 1: Can he come on again? And I disgust that was great? 200 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: Are you suggesting that the Yeah? I mean, Jonathan, thank you, 201 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 1: that was brilliant. What he absolutely nailed there, which drives 202 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:47,839 Speaker 1: me nuts, is all it's like the dots, all this 203 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: gazing and Pringle nails, the demographics nails the technology we're 204 00:10:52,920 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 1: living in we don't understand, etcetera, etcetera. Jonathan panofs. But 205 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 1: we can sit on the bank aving it for longer, 206 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 1: Bioll meats. We're going to do that now with that 207 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: shop Bettia, Deputy c i Owe the fixed income at 208 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: Newberger Berman a show first to you, just your reflection, 209 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: your thoughts on what we've learned from two central banks 210 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: in the last twenty four hours. Yeah. I think the 211 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 1: the overruning message is that the time of central banks 212 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: being able to hike rates without an impact on the 213 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: real economy and real growth, which was a lot of 214 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: the story of two thousand and twenty two, that's over 215 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: and we're now transitioning to this environment where central banks 216 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,319 Speaker 1: are divided over how do you wrestle with inflation rates 217 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:44,920 Speaker 1: which are very high but likely to come down and 218 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 1: the future trade offs to growth And you know this, 219 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 1: This dissension and the collared descents on the BOE really 220 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,679 Speaker 1: just put an exclamation point on it, which is there 221 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 1: are some individuals that you know, think and want to 222 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: conduct policy more on a forward looking basis us where 223 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:04,319 Speaker 1: others are still view the risk management attributes of policy 224 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: making is we've still got to be very dependent upon inflation, 225 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 1: and this is the debate that's going to be at 226 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,560 Speaker 1: all the central banks for for next year. How do 227 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: you invest around that? How do you take the messaging 228 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: and use it to to really create some sort of 229 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 1: thesis based on the fact that a lot of other 230 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,079 Speaker 1: people are discounting at wholesale and say the data will 231 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: be what the data will be, and we don't buy 232 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 1: what they're selling. So I think the biggest investment implication 233 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,439 Speaker 1: is is fixed and convolatility is going to go down. Um. 234 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: You know, you look at this year from low to high, 235 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: the US tenure moved in about a three hundred basis 236 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 1: point just under a three hundred basis point range. We're 237 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 1: probably heading back to something next year where you know, 238 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 1: we're going into this environment of slower hikes, fewer hikes. 239 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 1: You know, I think consensus is broadly correct on that. 240 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,079 Speaker 1: But what that means is expect ten uere interest rates 241 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: in the US to move maybe in a hundred hundred 242 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:55,079 Speaker 1: and fifty basis point range. It's going to be a 243 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:58,400 Speaker 1: dramatic reduction next year. And what that means is that 244 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: income high quality income um it's going to be more 245 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: volatile still on a day to day basis, But ultimately 246 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 1: you invest on the idea that with less volatility you 247 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,680 Speaker 1: can earn income and high quality income, and you know, 248 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: in a lot of fixed income markets, and you stay position. 249 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 1: You have some positions on that, some of the more 250 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: devish um uh, you know, central bank views that inflation 251 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: can fall in the growth impact um that that that 252 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,719 Speaker 1: could play out and lead to some higher returns and 253 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 1: fixed income next year. A shark is we approach neutrality 254 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 1: or approach restriction? Is it easier to have confidence in 255 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: a portfolio of fixed income? I mean, now that we're here, 256 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: is it easier to prosecute a portfolio and hold a portfolio? Yeah? 257 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 1: And I think the biggest driver of this, and Powell's 258 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: actually I think been quite articulate on this, which is 259 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:56,319 Speaker 1: three big drivers of inflation. You've had goods inflation, housing inflation, 260 00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 1: and then services x housing. If you go back three months, 261 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 1: all three of those were rising and who knew, who 262 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 1: knew when they were going to stop. Um Now we're 263 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: looking at goods prices in you know, mid to high 264 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:14,319 Speaker 1: single digit deflation. We're seeing some you know, higher conviction 265 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 1: that over the next six months housing prices are going 266 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 1: to come off but it still leaves this issue of 267 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: the third which is the services ex housing inflation. But 268 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: we've transitioned to this environment where call it two out 269 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: of three of the big CPI categories, we have a 270 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,359 Speaker 1: little bit more confidence of we know what the trajectory 271 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: will be there, and that's the key thing that gives 272 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 1: you a little bit more confidence that some of the 273 00:14:35,800 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: left tail of significantly higher rate possibilities are being reduced 274 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 1: pretty quickly. So thanks for being with us today. We 275 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: always appreciate it. We'll catch the with you a little 276 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: bit later in the year. I'm sure I check battier 277 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 1: the of new Berger Berman. We have the advantage and 278 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: particularly after the Bank of England decision today, which I'm 279 00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: gonna call collar descent, those looking for a more aggressive 280 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: rate move in the was looking for more dubbish rate 281 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 1: moves have someone I could only think of. Adam Posen 282 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: is the equivalent. John Riding is Chief Economic Advisor to 283 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: bring capital with Service to the Bank of England, his 284 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: Bank of England and also to the Federal Reserve System 285 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 1: as well, and he joins us now with decades of 286 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: experience here. What will you listen for from Governor Bailey 287 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: is he has colored descent, something totally unfamiliar to Americans. 288 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: Well occasionally have thought there's a bifurcation in these dissenting views. 289 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 1: Two members of the committee didn't want any change in rates, 290 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 1: which I find somewhat remarkable and speaks to the devishness 291 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: of some people on the committee, and on one person 292 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: wanting a larger than fifty basis point rate high um 293 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: and then you then you had six going along. So 294 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,840 Speaker 1: so that what what were the two who were not expecting, 295 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: not not unexpecting, but not wanting a rate high when 296 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: the inflation rates running at almost ten percent? Now, what's interesting? 297 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: Compare that to the Fed? And you asked what, I 298 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 1: hope Governor Bailey sounds like j Pal did yesterday because he, 299 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:12,440 Speaker 1: for once, he put in a terrific performance and he 300 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:16,520 Speaker 1: kept pounding away at the markets. The terminal rate five 301 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: point one percent, it's going to stay there for a while. 302 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: Don't look for cuts until there's clear evidence that inflation 303 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: is headed back to two percent. And as you make 304 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 1: the point, the markets are saying, well, we're still not 305 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: even going to price in a terminal funds rate above five. 306 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: All comes down to inflation. And I think that markets 307 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: to some degree, are looking for central banks to react 308 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: as they reacted when economies are going into recession over 309 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: the last two decades, when inflation wasn't a problem. Inflation 310 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: is a real problem, and a much bigger problem in Europe. 311 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: You made reference to the banking in the UK is 312 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 1: a small, open economy. Um, the exchange rate has a 313 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: really big impact on inflation, much more so than than 314 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: in the US UM and of course the bank also 315 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 1: has to navigate A nice get little update on those 316 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 1: troubles in the guilt market back in September forced the 317 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 1: Bank of England to begin easing again with temporary quantitative easing. 318 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: The day after, they confirmed that they were going to 319 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 1: start quantitative tightening the following week, and they had to 320 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: abandon those plans, which John, let's unpack some of this, 321 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:25,159 Speaker 1: and let's start with the nature of the descent on 322 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: the b O way. The individuals that didn't think we 323 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 1: should hike interest rates today, they believe in long and 324 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: variable lags. They think the cumulatively over the last twelve months, 325 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 1: we've done enough already and that's going to hit the 326 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 1: economy next year, We're going to go into recession. They 327 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 1: ultimately must believe that inflation is going to be on 328 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 1: a downtrend. What would you say back to that, Well, 329 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: let's use the language that the FED has adopted. Policy 330 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: needs to be not just restrictive, but sufficiently restrictive to 331 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: get inflation down. And ask, is a three and a 332 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 1: half percent interest rate when inflation is at around nine 333 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 1: and a half percent restrict if at all? Real interest 334 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 1: rates interest rates adjusted for inflation are at negative six 335 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 1: percent on the policy rate. And I don't know any 336 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 1: economic theory that would say a negative six percent interest 337 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 1: rate is a restrictive policy setting. So the message and 338 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:22,120 Speaker 1: the message to Fed has shifted to now they were late, 339 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 1: but they continued easing through the inflation problem last year. 340 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: But at least now they're they're getting that message out 341 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: and and have they done their messaging. They said, it's 342 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: not a question just how fast we raise rates, That's 343 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 1: that's a lesser important question. Now it's how high and 344 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: how long are we going to keep it there? And 345 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 1: I think that they Europe and then the Bank of 346 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 1: England is struggling with the how high. I think the 347 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:53,560 Speaker 1: Fed's largely got the message right, But then the next 348 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: part of the message is going to be how long. 349 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 1: And that's where the market simply just don't believe. They 350 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: believe that the recession is going to lead to lower 351 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,880 Speaker 1: inflation and that's going to do the FEDS and Bank 352 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: of England's and the ECB's job for them. And I 353 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 1: think with these particularly these supply shocks on energy prices 354 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 1: and still horrible developments in the Ukraine, these policy rates. 355 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: To imagine that a three percent policy rate would be 356 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,360 Speaker 1: high enough to bring inflation down, um, I just don't 357 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 1: get it. There's also a disbelief, though, just to push 358 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: back a little bit, that we could go from eighteen 359 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: trillion dollars of negative yielding debt in the world to 360 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: one trillion dollars of negative yielding debt in just a 361 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 1: couple of months and that nothing will break and then 362 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: suddenly we'd have this complete regime change that everyone would 363 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: say that was going to be catastrophic, and then suddenly 364 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: it would all be okay, and it wouldn't be enough, 365 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 1: and suddenly rates had to go much higher. People don't 366 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: believe that things can change this quickly without some consequences 367 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 1: that we have not yet seen. How do you push 368 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 1: back against that, Well, you're actually right I mean something 369 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: did break back in September, which which was the guilt market, 370 00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: and then you were in an uncontrolled um rise in 371 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: guilt yields because of the leverage decisions that UK pension 372 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 1: funds had taken number of funds in terms of buying 373 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: UK government bonds on borrowed money so they could also 374 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: invest in equities to try and catch up with their underfunding. 375 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:23,200 Speaker 1: And what happened was those that that important and why 376 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 1: did they do that? Because central banks have kept interesting 377 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,359 Speaker 1: it's too low for too long and they've been buying 378 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: the assets and so banks got pension funds got over leverage. 379 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 1: So something did brick and other things may break. The 380 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 1: break in the crypto market I think is largely unrelated 381 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: to um. These these policy issues, but things things will break. 382 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: But but if you abandon targeting inflation, which of course 383 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,439 Speaker 1: in a sense the New York Fed has actually touched 384 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 1: on that with this our star star concept, there might 385 00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: be interest rate that might need to be hind for 386 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: and inflation might break the financial system. Yeah, I gotta 387 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: ask you a question before we run out of time. 388 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 1: I've heard this story before. The only reason you got 389 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:09,639 Speaker 1: into came, which is your mother beat math into you. 390 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: It's well, well, well understands you said at the kitchen 391 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,840 Speaker 1: table and said, Johnny, do your your math. Can the 392 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 1: time continuum that you mentioned there be a substitute for level? 393 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:24,879 Speaker 1: Can the Feds substitute a certain level of interest rates 394 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: for getting up to a Bullard like excess terminal rate? Yes? 395 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 1: I think they can. But the difference between the Fed 396 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 1: is that they have policy rates getting clear at least 397 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 1: close to if not in restrictive territory, and when the 398 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 1: end and planning to get an ongoing process is going 399 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: to get rates higher, and then they can let those 400 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: rates sit. And I think that's where the conversation shifts. 401 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 1: I have the problem the banking that the ECB is 402 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:52,119 Speaker 1: policy rates and know when you're restrictive, so time cannot 403 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 1: substitute for that. I just imagine that. Look up the 404 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:04,119 Speaker 1: the articles the Federal on opportune disinflation back in because 405 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 1: that is going to be I think that if the 406 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 1: February visits that the genesis of framework for the idea 407 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,640 Speaker 1: that we can just sit at a restrictive rate for 408 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 1: a longer period of time to push down on inflation, 409 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: and that will work, providing the FED has credibility. I'm 410 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:27,919 Speaker 1: providing policy is on a restrictive setting. John, this was awesome. 411 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:29,880 Speaker 1: I'll just tell you how great it is to see 412 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: Mrs Riding in the studio as well. Fantastic, isn't that great? 413 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,119 Speaker 1: Taka love screen, Love that, John, Thank you, Thank you, 414 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 1: John Ryding. Bring capital, France and Argentina. Oh, after the 415 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 1: hand of God incident. I've got to go with France. 416 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 1: Just can't let that go. Can't let it go? Come 417 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 1: that we go back to the eighties. I have no 418 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 1: idea what you're talking about. Okay, So like the voice 419 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 1: of God, you don't know what Diego did. No no clue, 420 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: Get on YouTube and find out. Ridiculous, John, how am 421 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: I working with her? This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 422 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from seven to 423 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television 424 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 1: each day from six to nine am for insight from 425 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And 426 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: subscribe to the Surveillance Podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg 427 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,120 Speaker 1: dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm Tom 428 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 1: Keene and this is Bloomberg