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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan without further ado,

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Speaker 1: That's what the game's all about, all asten.

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Speaker 2: You feel like you can't miss.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna sleep up there.

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Speaker 2: People couldn't make that if you tried. That a good Absolutely.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast NBA Wednesday Buffet Edition.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Matt Moore. You can find me on

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Speaker 3: Twitter at HP Basketball. Joined by the one and only

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Speaker 3: the Nefarious Contrarian, the off start of Degenerate Nation, Raheem

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Speaker 3: Palmer Rahem.

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Speaker 4: How's it going man, everything's good. I mean, we having

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Speaker 4: a great start to the NBA season. I can't complain.

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Speaker 4: It's the best thing in the world, so I'm happy.

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Speaker 3: So today's show, what we're gonna do is we will

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Speaker 3: talk about our big Marque event. We will go through

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Speaker 3: the Wednesday night slate. We're recording this on Tuesday. We

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Speaker 3: have early lines provided to us and we will talk

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Speaker 3: about those early lines for the Wednesday night games in

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Speaker 3: our buffet segment. And then at the end we're gonna

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Speaker 3: do crazy pills where I have something that I just

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Speaker 3: have to ask if I'm completely out of my mind.

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Speaker 3: But let's get started with a big marquee in the NBA,

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Speaker 3: and that raheem is Steph Curry. So Steph goes off

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Speaker 3: for sixty two versus the Portland Trailblazers. The Steph back

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Speaker 3: memes are all over the place. Your apology needs to

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Speaker 3: be as loud as the disrespect is out there as well.

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Speaker 3: We have all of these things. Then he follows it

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Speaker 3: up with a performance versus the Kings in which he

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Speaker 3: basically he goes off for like ninety two points through

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Speaker 3: seven quarters, which and just you know, looks every bit back.

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Speaker 3: The step back, three pointers, the half court, thirty five footer,

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Speaker 3: he's sliceding through the lane, all of this stuff. I

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Speaker 3: lost you two questions. One is Steph back? And two

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Speaker 3: does this mean the Warriors are back?

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Speaker 2: Stephan is definitely back.

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Speaker 4: I never had any doubts of whether he would be

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Speaker 4: able to perform. I just thought the team around him

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Speaker 4: was just so bad. Like I always think back and

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Speaker 4: this is the example I always give. He scored forty

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Speaker 4: seven points in Game three of the twenty nineteen finals.

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Speaker 4: You know Clay didn't play that game. He had very

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Speaker 4: little shooting around him, and they weren't remotely competitive. You know,

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Speaker 4: they go into the twenty nineteen twenty twenty season and

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Speaker 4: you're just getting torched by everybody. So I never thought

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Speaker 4: it was a matter of what Steph did. It's a

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Speaker 4: matter of the guys around him can shoot. But I

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Speaker 4: think that the one thing that's clear to me is

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Speaker 4: that Draymond has made a huge difference. Guys are starting

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Speaker 4: to buy in. Kelly oubre and Andrew Wiggins are finally

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Speaker 4: starting to hit shots. So I think there'll still be

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Speaker 4: a mediocre team, there'll be a candidate for the playing game,

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Speaker 4: but I'm not really getting too optimistic past that.

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Speaker 3: So I think there's a couple of things to keep

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Speaker 3: in mind here. One, the Draymond effect is very real,

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Speaker 3: and there's been some writing already done on that. But

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Speaker 3: one thing that when I went back and watched Draymond's

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Speaker 3: energy in terms of knowing that Steph is on and

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Speaker 3: looking to get him involved, like racing into the front court,

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Speaker 3: doing the quick handoff, you know, having stuff relocate, Like

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Speaker 3: Draymond knows him enough to be like, we just got

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Speaker 3: to keep feeding him and he will break the offense

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Speaker 3: more than any other player. I think the rest of

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Speaker 3: those guys are not used to the Warriors, and so

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Speaker 3: they're very much like, Okay, we're just gonna run our

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Speaker 3: offense now, like this is what we're doing. And Draymond's

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Speaker 3: like no, like yes, we're getting stuff the ball and

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Speaker 3: we're going to use the way that they're going to

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Speaker 3: freak out over stuff to get everybody else going give

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Speaker 3: me the ball. And his playmaking, I think is what

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Speaker 3: they needed as an option. Like there's been this question

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Speaker 3: raised of who's more important honestly for Steph and is

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Speaker 3: a player is a Draymond? Because Clay drags like Clay

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Speaker 3: punishes all of that gravity that Steph absorbs in that

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Speaker 3: weapon that you have to stay home on him. But

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Speaker 3: by the same token, if there's nobody to make the

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Speaker 3: play to get Curry the ball to make that read,

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Speaker 3: then it doesn't matter. Because when Steph this was God.

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Speaker 3: I got a real frustrated with the conversation about Steph

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Speaker 3: because it was a lot of like, why are they

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Speaker 3: not just running pick and roll with Steph? Why is

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Speaker 3: he playing off ball, this, that, and the other. That's

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Speaker 3: what you want. That's where he's great. When he was

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Speaker 3: trying to run picking rolls up top and just missing

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Speaker 3: it was he was just wide. And when you get

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Speaker 3: him going in those things where he's hit you from

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Speaker 3: all different angles, that's where Steph's comfortable. I think when

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Speaker 3: we look at this and we want to take this

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Speaker 3: from an actionable perspective, the Warriors' odds are plus twenty

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Speaker 3: five hundred now to win the NBA title. I bet

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Speaker 3: them at plus sixteen hundred back before Clay got hurt.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, you're crazy.

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Speaker 3: Whoops. Look I liked it before Clay got hurt. Didn't

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Speaker 3: feel great after. I'm not saying saying that right now.

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Speaker 3: There's value on the Warriors. I do have an angle

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Speaker 3: for you I'll talk about in a minute, but I

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Speaker 3: will say this. We see the steps back that fundamentally

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Speaker 3: changes their ceiling. Kelly u Bray is not going to

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Speaker 3: continue to shoot this poortly. Like everybody's getting jokes off

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Speaker 3: about Kelly Ubray and how bad he's shooting. That's not

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Speaker 3: who he is. The guy has been consistently above thirty

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Speaker 3: five percent the last couple of seasons. He turned into

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Speaker 3: a very good player in Washington. He's been a plus

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Speaker 3: defender the last two spots that he's made. He's been

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Speaker 3: a plus defender this season in Golden State. The bench

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Speaker 3: is gonna get better as it goes along. Wiggins is

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Speaker 3: my bigger question, Like, I don't know if for.

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Speaker 4: Me, what do you think is what do you think

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Speaker 4: they're selling is realistically? Right now, I'm looking at a

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Speaker 4: play in game scenario for them.

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Speaker 3: So okay, here's the thing. I think you're looking at

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Speaker 3: this more from how good are they? Like, oh, they're

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Speaker 3: not better than like a play in team. Yeah, but

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Speaker 3: look at who they just thrashed, the Blazers and the Kings.

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Speaker 3: This isn't about what they're gonna do Wednesday versus the Clippers.

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Speaker 3: We won't have to latch that, by the way, because

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Speaker 3: we don't know if the Clippers aren't back to back,

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Speaker 3: because the NBA keeps scheduling the Clippers on a back

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Speaker 3: to back because they love just screwing everybody watch audience.

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Speaker 3: It's better as everyone by putting the Clippers on back

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Speaker 3: to backs on national TV. But like, it's not about

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Speaker 3: how they do versus that. It's not about how they

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Speaker 3: do versus the Lakers, not about how they're gonna match

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Speaker 3: up in the playoffs. But I'm asking you like rank

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Speaker 3: and file. Is their offense gonna be better than the

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Speaker 3: bad offenses in the league.

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Speaker 2: Oh, without a doubt. I think defense is.

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Speaker 3: Gonna be better than the bad offenses in the league.

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Speaker 2: I think the defense is still gonna be awful.

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Speaker 3: Okay, the defense can be bad. Portland's worse.

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Speaker 4: They're slightly below porting. Like That's that's how I'm ranking

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Speaker 4: them right now.

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Speaker 3: But I guess, like the other thing I would say

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Speaker 3: is like if we get into this and like, look,

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Speaker 3: you know the playoff spots in the West, like Lakers, Clippers,

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Speaker 3: Sons we got, we gotta put them at the top

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Speaker 3: right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, without a doubt.

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Speaker 3: I'm assuming the Nuggets figure it out. But Dallas, we

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Speaker 3: don't know about Utah we can put in. That's five.

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Speaker 3: Are we absolutely sold on Houston given the situation.

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Speaker 2: I'm I'm sold on Houston.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so that's six. Now, I'm not willing to go

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Speaker 3: there because I steph Harden may just be like no,

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Speaker 3: I told you I want out James Harden, Strip Club

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Speaker 3: Olympian and we're especially we're seeing a little bit now

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Speaker 3: that there's there. The Mavericks game was an inflection point

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Speaker 3: in that the conversation today is all about like, wow, Christian,

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Speaker 3: what's awesome offensively? But I mean he can't defend Kenny

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Speaker 3: And I'm like, no, So if you're talking about okay,

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Speaker 3: the Rockets aren't going to be able to defend their

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Speaker 3: their switch scheme. The entire league has gone away from switch.

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Speaker 3: Switch percentage is down by about five percentage points a

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Speaker 3: year over year.

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Speaker 4: The thing with the words were is if if Curry

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Speaker 4: gets COVID or he gets hurt, it's like that's done.

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Speaker 4: Like the ads for them to make the postseason are

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Speaker 4: plus one to twenty four.

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Speaker 3: Sure, but if Harden gets hurt, what happens, If Jokic

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Speaker 3: gets hurt, what happens?

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Speaker 4: Like, I mean, I think they have ways of winning

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Speaker 4: without those guys.

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Speaker 3: Not consistently, I don't think. And I think the other

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Speaker 3: thing is like, if we're gonna look at Houston and Denver,

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Speaker 3: two bad defensive teams, and you're saying, you have their

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Speaker 3: offense is so good. If Steph's doing this, the offense

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Speaker 3: is good enough, Like I think it's there. I do

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Speaker 3: have before we go on to the next segment, I

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Speaker 3: do have a prop for you At bet MGM, the

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Speaker 3: official betting partner of the Action Network podcast. You can

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Speaker 3: get division to win the NBA title, and the Pacific

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Speaker 3: is still plus money at plus one twenty five. So

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Speaker 3: if we got the Lakers, got the Clippers, and we

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Speaker 3: sign the Warriors, make a mid season trade. Some team

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Speaker 3: talks himself into Andrew Wiggins, like Steph goes super nova.

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Speaker 3: Kelly Ubrey it like picks up his game with the

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Speaker 3: regression hits like Wiseman keeps developing. They get the right

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Speaker 3: series of matchups. Okay, throw all that in. I'm still

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Speaker 3: getting plus money on Pacific Division.

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Speaker 2: I like that you have the Suns.

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Speaker 4: You have the Suns, and I think and the Suns

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Speaker 4: like the Suns to me, they get the second best

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Speaker 4: defense in the league.

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Speaker 2: I love the Suns.

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Speaker 3: So that Pacific Division plus one twenty five out of

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Speaker 3: this podcast, I think I'm probably going to add to

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Speaker 3: my futures position.

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Speaker 2: I think I might take that too.

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Speaker 3: It's time. Welcome to the NBA Wednesday night Buffet. Let's

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Speaker 3: eat raim.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, let's do this.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna stay up your ass with this fool. Do

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Speaker 3: you hear me?

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Speaker 1: I would love them and swallow no savory.

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Speaker 3: Okay, here's how it's gonna work. We each have a theoretical,

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Speaker 3: theoretical one hundred dollars to work with. You have to

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Speaker 3: take two sides and you have to take a total.

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Speaker 3: I have a balanced meal. Can't be all sides, can't

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Speaker 3: be all totals you get too full. Don't fill up

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Speaker 3: on Brad two sides of the total, and then from

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Speaker 3: there you can distribute out whatever you want. So what's

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Speaker 3: your biggest position.

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Speaker 4: The biggest position actually just moved, like right now as

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Speaker 4: we were just talking about it.

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Speaker 2: The Sun's played the Raptors tomorrow. I love the Suns.

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Speaker 4: They just moved from two and a half to three

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Speaker 4: and a half worldwide like it just happened about thirty

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Speaker 4: seconds ago. I love the Suns. The Sons have one

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Speaker 4: of the best defenses in the league. They're holding teams

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Speaker 4: to one hundred and four points for one hundred possessions.

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Speaker 2: I love them.

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Speaker 4: They're going up against the Raptors team that's twenty seventh

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Speaker 4: in the offense. I think that's a great spot for them.

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Speaker 4: The Raptors can't beat a depleted Boston Celtics team. It's

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Speaker 4: coming off of back to back. I just I'm fading

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Speaker 4: the Raptors I'm also I'm gonna stick with that same game.

218
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Speaker 4: I like the under on that game. I think I

219
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Speaker 4: think it's two eighteen right now. There's a little difference

220
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Speaker 4: in the opinion in the market, Like one book has

221
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Speaker 4: two seventeen, one book has two eighteen. I personally make

222
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Speaker 4: the game two sixteen for me. I just don't see

223
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Speaker 4: how the Raptors consistently score. On his Son's defense, I

224
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Speaker 4: think the Suns play the slowest pace in the league.

225
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Speaker 4: The Raptors want to run, but I think, you know,

226
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Speaker 4: with Chris Paul out there, he keeps the pace low

227
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Speaker 4: and if the Raptors can't get out in transition, they

228
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Speaker 4: won't be able to score. So I'm taking it under

229
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Speaker 4: too eighteen. My numbers make it two sixteen, So that's

230
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Speaker 4: where I'm going with it.

231
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Speaker 3: What does your model have the line at for Suns Raptors.

232
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Speaker 4: My model actually hesitated about three, So it's just it's

233
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Speaker 4: right around where the market is. Of course, you know,

234
00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:53,280
Speaker 4: as we were talking, I was gonna give out two

235
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Speaker 4: and a half, but they just moved. But I still

236
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Speaker 4: think based on the Raptors offense, I don't think they're

237
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Speaker 4: going to be able to consistently score on this.

238
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Speaker 3: I mentioned why the model is kicking that out and

239
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Speaker 3: why this number, because when it popped at three, like

240
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Speaker 3: I tweeted it, I was like, that's bait, Like that

241
00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:09,120
Speaker 3: just seems that's so low. Like that's one of the

242
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Speaker 3: reasons I kind of want to stay away from it

243
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Speaker 3: is because like I look at that and I'm just like, how, like,

244
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Speaker 3: the Raptors are fundamentally different this season. I went back

245
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Speaker 3: and looked at some numbers. They are last season, they were.

246
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Speaker 3: The last two seasons, they've been the most diverse defensive

247
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Speaker 3: team in pick and roll situations. They can switch, they

248
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Speaker 3: can run zone, box and one, they can blitz, they

249
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Speaker 3: can hedge, they can contain, they can ice, they can drop.

250
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Speaker 3: This season, they're back up to basically being like Nop

251
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Speaker 3: they're drop team because Nurse knows he can't ask his bigs,

252
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Speaker 3: Bouchet and the other dudes they can't do with a

253
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Speaker 3: bocket and gasold that they don't have the experience to

254
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Speaker 3: manage those schemes and know where they need to be.

255
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Speaker 3: So they're just like, this is what most NBA teams

256
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Speaker 3: do in the regular season, is let's just drop because

257
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Speaker 3: we'll contain the big if one guy goes off, We're

258
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Speaker 3: going to try and stay home on the shooters. We'll

259
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Speaker 3: protect the race them right like. We're going to get

260
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Speaker 3: the shots that we want, and if we get absolutely

261
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Speaker 3: torched by a point guard, which there are a lot

262
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Speaker 3: in this league, we'll be able to overcome that. And

263
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Speaker 3: there are teams that run. The difference isn't a good

264
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Speaker 3: drop versus a bad drop are very high. I also

265
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Speaker 3: just think though, that the them being undersized with Lowery

266
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Speaker 3: and Van Vliet, now that they don't have Abaka, now

267
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Speaker 3: that they don't have Gasol, now that Siakam is struggling

268
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Speaker 3: the way that he is, they just don't have the

269
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Speaker 3: kind of athleticism to counter with their size exactly. The

270
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Speaker 3: defensive numbers aren't bad for Toronto. They're good. They're just

271
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Speaker 3: not as good I think.

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Speaker 4: I think the biggest thing that people don't realize is

273
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Speaker 4: that even when they get a stop this season, they

274
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Speaker 4: can't rebound the ball.

275
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Speaker 2: Their lasting rebound.

276
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Speaker 4: Percentage right a big there. I watched I watched the

277
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Speaker 4: Pelicans game the other day. The Raptors battled back from

278
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Speaker 4: a ten point deficit and they actually took a two

279
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Speaker 4: point lead, but they couldn't get the rebound, like the

280
00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,440
Speaker 4: Pelicans got three offensive rebounds in the last minute and

281
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Speaker 4: a half and was able to tie the game. So

282
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Speaker 4: I just think when you're playing against Adon, you're just

283
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Speaker 4: in a tough spot. So even if they managed to,

284
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Speaker 4: you know, slow down Devin Book or slow down Chris Paul.

285
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Speaker 4: You know mcal Bridges doesn't shoot lights out from three,

286
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Speaker 4: they're gonna they're gonnatruggle to get the rebound, and I

287
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Speaker 4: just I think it's a bad spot for them. I'm

288
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Speaker 4: gonna continue to fade the raptors. I know you you

289
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Speaker 4: faded them the other day and I jumped on board

290
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Speaker 4: as well. So I think it's an undergame. And I

291
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Speaker 4: love the Suns.

292
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Speaker 3: Okay, give me numbers. How much of your one hundred

293
00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:28,560
Speaker 3: are you putting on this?

294
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Speaker 4: I'm gonna split them, you know, thirty three, thirty three,

295
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,760
Speaker 4: thirty three between all three bets.

296
00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,599
Speaker 3: Okay, gotta keep it consistent. That's definitely. I approached a

297
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:38,600
Speaker 3: lot of people like, all right, my first one, my

298
00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:42,320
Speaker 3: big bet of the Wednesday night buffet, I am gonna

299
00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:46,480
Speaker 3: chow down on the under in Washington, Philly. When you

300
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:48,800
Speaker 3: do this for real, don't ever say that it's at

301
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,720
Speaker 3: two thirty one. Right now, the market thinks of the

302
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:57,240
Speaker 3: Wizards as one thing and the actual team is doing another.

303
00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,400
Speaker 3: So this is like the big thing for me. The

304
00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:04,559
Speaker 3: Wizards have right now the number one expected field goal

305
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:08,200
Speaker 3: percentage allowed by an opponent, as in the lowest. They

306
00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:12,520
Speaker 3: have the actual sixth highest. So what we're seeing is

307
00:14:12,640 --> 00:14:16,400
Speaker 3: teams are shooting the lights out on low percentage shots.

308
00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,320
Speaker 3: That's like the basics that the numbers are coming down to. Now,

309
00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:21,840
Speaker 3: that's not always gonna regress because you could just be

310
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Speaker 3: bad at defending. Like if you don't get a hand

311
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Speaker 3: of NBA players are going to make shots. I get that,

312
00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:28,920
Speaker 3: but I got a bunch of pass to my under

313
00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,600
Speaker 3: here on two thirty one. The Sixers defense has been

314
00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,120
Speaker 3: absolutely the most dominant. They're the only team with a

315
00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,600
Speaker 3: sub one hundred defensive rating in the NBA this season.

316
00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:38,920
Speaker 3: They have been the most dominant defensive team. There are

317
00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:40,640
Speaker 3: a bunch of defenses I like, I wrote an article

318
00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:43,560
Speaker 3: about a bunch of East defenses and on Action Network.

319
00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:45,520
Speaker 3: I didn't get into the Sixers because I ran out

320
00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:49,520
Speaker 3: of time. But their ice coverage is so good where

321
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:51,520
Speaker 3: they're basically just keeping you out of the middle with

322
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:56,160
Speaker 3: Mbeid forcing you to the sideline. Everybody's locked in, everybody's

323
00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,360
Speaker 3: playing great. I still think Ben Simmons is going to

324
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:02,160
Speaker 3: be a key guy for defensive player the year. Their

325
00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,440
Speaker 3: defense is awesome, so they may just absolutely like if

326
00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:09,040
Speaker 3: they make Russ into a shooter, this game's going under,

327
00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,960
Speaker 3: like they'll stay home on Berton's who has honestly been

328
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,480
Speaker 3: a little bit off this season. They'll they'll stay home

329
00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:17,760
Speaker 3: on be Like they have the guys to lock down

330
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,960
Speaker 3: on Beal because so much of what Beal does is

331
00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,720
Speaker 3: one on one or in pick and roll coverage. They'll

332
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:24,840
Speaker 3: make things tough on Beal. So there's a path for

333
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:28,800
Speaker 3: the under where you know, the Wizards only wind up

334
00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,520
Speaker 3: putting up to ten like I could see that happening.

335
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 3: And then defensively like the yes, the Sixers should eat,

336
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,800
Speaker 3: but the Sixers offense in general, it's just rarely gonna

337
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:41,200
Speaker 3: put up absolutely massive numbers, even if the Wizards have

338
00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:44,320
Speaker 3: breakdowns versus Seth Curry and Simmons gets out in transition,

339
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,360
Speaker 3: like Thomas Bryant's been underratedly pretty good defensively this year.

340
00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,360
Speaker 3: He'll get beat by Embiid and beats better.

341
00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:50,840
Speaker 2: I get it.

342
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,160
Speaker 3: He'll body him and he'll score a lot. That's fine.

343
00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,480
Speaker 3: But if Embiid's scoring, that means they're not taking threes,

344
00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,080
Speaker 3: and that's fine. Like I'm willing to get into it

345
00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,360
Speaker 3: in a two point battle as long as we're doing

346
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:03,200
Speaker 3: as long as I'm trying to get the under. So

347
00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 3: with this at two thirty one, it's actually already moved

348
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:07,840
Speaker 3: up to two thirty two. The last time I checked

349
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,520
Speaker 3: before this podcast now was early. Like, if this thing

350
00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,280
Speaker 3: keeps bumping like, I will look at it like I'm

351
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:15,680
Speaker 3: gonna be looking for the under. Uh, I've already gotten

352
00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,680
Speaker 3: in on it at two thirty one. I'm gonna get

353
00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:19,200
Speaker 3: into it. If it goes any higher, I'll probably go

354
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:20,720
Speaker 3: a little bit smaller on it, but I'm putting thirty

355
00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:21,880
Speaker 3: five on that one.

356
00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:23,480
Speaker 4: I wanted to comment on that game because I think

357
00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,680
Speaker 4: that's an interesting game because they played on Opening night.

358
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:30,520
Speaker 4: It closed, I think it was two twenty Sixers put

359
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 4: up one thirteen, the Wizards put it one oh seven,

360
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,880
Speaker 4: but the Wizards went eight of twenty eight from three,

361
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 4: So I think that's why the total is staying at

362
00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,200
Speaker 4: that point because they pretty much opened the line the

363
00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:43,640
Speaker 4: same as a place I think it was two thirty

364
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:48,360
Speaker 4: one before Sixers minus seven and a half. So I

365
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,480
Speaker 4: think the path towards the Wiz towards this game going

366
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,960
Speaker 4: over is the Wizards shooting a better percentage from three. Now,

367
00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:57,120
Speaker 4: the Sixers went out there and you know they went

368
00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 4: thirteen of twenty seven from three point range. But my

369
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,320
Speaker 4: numbers actually make this game two thirty three. But I

370
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:08,040
Speaker 4: like your explanation of it. So for me, if I'm

371
00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,080
Speaker 4: betting this total, I want to wait it out a

372
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,600
Speaker 4: little bit see if the public pushes it a little

373
00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:13,840
Speaker 4: higher before I jump in.

374
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:14,240
Speaker 2: Yeah.

375
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:15,440
Speaker 3: The other thing I would say is I think there's

376
00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,760
Speaker 3: a pretty good chance of the stickers options just absolutely

377
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:19,280
Speaker 3: beat the snot out of them, and then we got

378
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:21,719
Speaker 3: garbage time, and we got the under on garbage time.

379
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 3: As nobody can make a shot like that's that's like

380
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,480
Speaker 3: another that's a that's another path to get me there.

381
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:28,959
Speaker 3: What's your last chunk for on your going on your

382
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 3: plate for the buffet?

383
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,960
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with I hate to do this,

384
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 4: but I'm going with the Miami heat. Oh boy, this

385
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,280
Speaker 4: is this is just a bad scheduling spot for the Celtics.

386
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 4: They're playing three and four nights. They just beat a

387
00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:43,520
Speaker 4: Raptors team they had. They struggled with Detroit all weekend.

388
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 4: It's a short price on the Heat at home, laying

389
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,679
Speaker 4: two and a half. People thinking this is a revenge spot,

390
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:52,439
Speaker 4: I don't see it. I think the Heat or a

391
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,000
Speaker 4: deeper team. I think they going they going there and

392
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 4: they just beat up on the Celtics. It's not really

393
00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,720
Speaker 4: a number play. It's more of a situational spot for me.

394
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I get it. I like Brad Stevens teams when

395
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,479
Speaker 3: things get when there's adversity. So that's like, I'm going

396
00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,440
Speaker 3: to talk myself. They're gonna come up in a minute

397
00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,679
Speaker 3: after I get through the rest of my stuff. I

398
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:11,960
Speaker 3: want to stay away from this game.

399
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:13,160
Speaker 2: I do.

400
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 3: I'm going to talk myself into it. For my last

401
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 3: bet of the buffet, I will just say this, I

402
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,880
Speaker 3: don't think that Miami. So Miami's numbers are all out

403
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:26,440
Speaker 3: of whack. They're shooting worse than they should be because

404
00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:31,440
Speaker 3: they're getting good quality shots, but their defense is still

405
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 3: better than it should be. So like you have like

406
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 3: this disparity in where they're at. The other thing is

407
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:38,639
Speaker 3: just like I feel like a lot of people and

408
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 3: this is one of the reasons that I was a

409
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,920
Speaker 3: little bit down. I wanted to go down on the heat.

410
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,200
Speaker 3: I wound up going over on their win total because

411
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,360
Speaker 3: I was just like, let's keep this simple, Eric Spolstra.

412
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,280
Speaker 3: But I will say this, like everyone was really high

413
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 3: off of the bubble Drags. Doesn't look like that dude anymore.

414
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,919
Speaker 3: Like he's gone back, like he Hulk has turned back

415
00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,119
Speaker 3: into Banner with Goran Dragic. Jimmy's always gonna co the

416
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 3: regular season because he's got to because of how many

417
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 3: miles Tips put on him. Duncan Robinson's insane, like he's

418
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,199
Speaker 3: just crazy when he gets hot. But they are missing,

419
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:10,919
Speaker 3: like they're filling in. They're having to play more of

420
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 3: the younger guys. When you look at them in a

421
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,639
Speaker 3: regular season context when it's not matchup based, they're not

422
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 3: that awesome and they're still relying a lot on like

423
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,359
Speaker 3: Igodala now has to play more minutes, and Iigodaala is

424
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,639
Speaker 3: like it's getting shaky there with how old he is.

425
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,439
Speaker 3: I just think that the biggest thing for me is

426
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:29,760
Speaker 3: I think this line should be lowered. I'm monol on it.

427
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,080
Speaker 3: I just feel like this is closer, especially the Celtics.

428
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,480
Speaker 3: I will maintain much like I will maintain the Bucks

429
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 3: should have one versus the Raptors. The Celtics show won

430
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,399
Speaker 3: last year, like they they had that team out played

431
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 3: except for one quarter in the first two games, and

432
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 3: that wound up being the series. I like the matchups

433
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 3: in general. I like Thompson being able to battle Bam.

434
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 3: I like Brad Stevens spots. We'll get to them in

435
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:55,439
Speaker 3: a minute. My second spot on the buffet. You know,

436
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 3: I'm a doubter for the Atlanta Hawks. I've been a doubter.

437
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:00,919
Speaker 3: I'm going to stay a doubter. I'm not convinced on

438
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 3: this team. I think it's a lot of smoking mirrors.

439
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 3: Why are they only laying six to the Charlotte Hornets?

440
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 3: Why why are they only laying six at home to

441
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 3: the Charlotte Hornets? What do you what does your model

442
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:14,879
Speaker 3: have this? I BET's in the line, But what's your

443
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:15,439
Speaker 3: model having that?

444
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 4: If I just use this year's numbers like no priors,

445
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 4: I actually having at nine.

446
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 3: This is what I'm saying. And so unless there's an

447
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 3: and like again, we're recording this on Tuesday, you want

448
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,439
Speaker 3: to wait and make sure that you've got all of

449
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 3: the information covered, follow the Fantasy Labs NBA on Twitter.

450
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,160
Speaker 3: It's gonna get you the up to date information by

451
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,640
Speaker 3: the second of what you need to know about that

452
00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 3: get through the labs insider stuff from from justin fan.

453
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,920
Speaker 3: He adjust everything based off of the guy is gonna

454
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:44,879
Speaker 3: play or if he's not gonna play. You can see

455
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 3: the impact on the line, the lineups, the minutes. Everything

456
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 3: you can find angles based off all of this stuff.

457
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,479
Speaker 3: But if we're unless a Trey Young is not playing

458
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 3: and I got I'm getting I only have to lay

459
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 3: six to Charlotte, I gotta lay less than two possessions.

460
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: This Charlotte team continues to get risk. I don't get it.

461
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,159
Speaker 3: They've been overrated in almost every game this season. Like

462
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,640
Speaker 3: the Hornets are almost an auto fade for me because

463
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 3: the market just will not adjust.

464
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't.

465
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 4: I don't quite understand it either. I've definitely faded them

466
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 4: in spots against Oklahoma City. It's I mean, but they

467
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 4: beat Brooklyn, So.

468
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 3: They did beat Brooklyn. Good for them, But I mean,

469
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 3: they're two and five ats on the season, including that one.

470
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 3: You know they're they're with an average line, like they're

471
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 3: their average line is they're basically a four and a

472
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,920
Speaker 3: half point dog every game. Uh, and they're losing by five,

473
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,119
Speaker 3: Like they're not even out outpacing that even with some

474
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 3: of these outlier performances. And look at who they've played,

475
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 3: like Calves Thunder got the Nets win MAVs who haven't

476
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 3: been playing well Grizzlies, and then got to stop by

477
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 3: the Sixers, Like the market has just not really like

478
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 3: and there's no Cody Zeller either. Cody Zeller, by the way,

479
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:04,159
Speaker 3: Oh that's just huge. Yeah, it's huge. It's huge, you know.

480
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 3: And in this matchup, I love the way that the

481
00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 3: Hawks Wings are playing. One of the reasons I faded

482
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 3: the Hawks is I was like, I like Reddish and

483
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 3: Hunter and they're not going to play those guys because

484
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 3: they brought in Bogdanovic and Gallinari. But they're still playing

485
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,479
Speaker 3: Reddish and Hunter a ton and those guys are playing

486
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 3: really well. It's helping their defense quite a bit, even

487
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 3: though I think it's gonna fade as the season goes on. Yeah,

488
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 3: I'm putting in a pretty big chunk. So I put

489
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 3: down I had thirty five on the Washington Philly under.

490
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 3: I'm going thirty on Atlanta minus six. I am taking

491
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: fifteen on the Celtics plus three, just fifteen bucks because

492
00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 3: I've been screwed by the heat so many times. It's

493
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 3: just it's a pain. I just for me, It's just

494
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 3: a situational spot. I'm really big.

495
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 4: I think that's the one thing that I like to

496
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 4: capitalize on NBA. And it's like, unfortunately, you know, with

497
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 4: the way they're changing the schedule, like it's dying a

498
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,399
Speaker 4: slow death. But I don't play a situational spot.

499
00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 3: Yeah that night, I mean, Justin Fan who's a better

500
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 3: better than me? I'll go ahead and put that out there,

501
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 3: But Justin Fann, who's a better better than me? Like,

502
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 3: that's that's what he does. He looks for the spots,

503
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 3: he looks for the injuries, he looks for the for

504
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 3: the opportunities. My problem is is, like having watched the

505
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 3: league night to night to night, the big one of

506
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 3: the big takeaways I took was there are certain teams

507
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 3: who's that whole identity is they get up for adversity spots.

508
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 3: The Nuggets are like this, Brandon Celtics are like this.

509
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 3: I expect Monty Williams Suns to be like this. A

510
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 3: little bit where their coaches are able to instill in them.

511
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 3: One of the reasons I like Boston and back to

512
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 3: backs is I actually heard an interview years ago where

513
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 3: Stevens outright said he said, those are schedule losses. If

514
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 3: we convert those to wins, it's huge for our total output.

515
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 3: That like long term view, is how you should look

516
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 3: at the regular season. Now, this one's tougher because they

517
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 3: just came off that big win versus the Raptors. It's

518
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 3: a letdown spot. I just simply don't think that the

519
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 3: Heat as they are right now are three points better

520
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 3: like here if it's picking.

521
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 4: If it was if it wasn't for the scheduled spot,

522
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,719
Speaker 4: I would stay off this game. Yeah here because actually,

523
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 4: I mean my model actually makes it a pick them,

524
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,679
Speaker 4: So you're right. But I just think this coming off

525
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 4: the scheduled spot. And then also the big winn against

526
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 4: the Raptors, like to me, that just and they had

527
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 4: to fight back, Like the Raptors came out and made

528
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 4: six of eight threes in the first quarter and they

529
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 4: were down heavy and he had to fight back. So

530
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 4: it's just like the spot is just it's just a

531
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 4: horrible spot for me, and I just I have to

532
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 4: feed that and if they.

533
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 3: Beat me, I can live with it. So the cap

534
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 3: was right, the result was wrong. I feel that my

535
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 3: last bit I got thirty bucks. I'm trying to get

536
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:40,639
Speaker 3: ahead of you early in our contest here. That's going

537
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 3: to be going throughout the season. I'm going on parlay.

538
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 3: I'm going parlay, hunting ream putting thirty on the Pacers

539
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:52,239
Speaker 3: money line versus the Rockets. They're at home and the

540
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: Sun's minus one forty nine. That's going to get me

541
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 3: a solid payout of plus money. Get me up there

542
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 3: as the returnio over fifty eight dollars in profit. I'm

543
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 3: here for this. I'm taking Pacers and Suns now. The

544
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 3: problem is road Dogs this season are twenty seven and thirty.

545
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 3: The thirty four and twenty three ats road Dogs have

546
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 3: been high so like and I've learned over time, especially

547
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: since going to Action, you don't want to be too

548
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:20,919
Speaker 3: early on the trend. You don't want to be too

549
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 3: early on going back on it like. This is one

550
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 3: of the problems I think with Washington. That's why I'm

551
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 3: worried about that Washington. That's why I'm not taking Washington

552
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,919
Speaker 3: on spreads right now. Is I'm like, I have to

553
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 3: see them play better defense. They should play better defense.

554
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 3: Their defense should improve based off of the numbers. But

555
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,359
Speaker 3: I got to see it, and once it turns, it'll

556
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 3: probably start to regress in that same pattern and I

557
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,679
Speaker 3: can start go in. But I'm waiting on that. But

558
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go ahead and get away ahead of the

559
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 3: road dogs one here. I just feel like the Pacers

560
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,199
Speaker 3: are playing great basketball right now, even without TJ. Warren.

561
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 3: I know it's a letdown spot after a really good

562
00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 3: win versus the Pelicans in overtime. I get that they

563
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 3: do have the day off. The Rockets are on the road,

564
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 3: like the Rockets are without Daniel House. That's a big

565
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 3: kind of key component to this. They have a short rotation. Anyway.

566
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 3: I love the Bigs versus Wood and Tucker, like Turner

567
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:22,479
Speaker 3: Sabona should be able to really do some stuff. I

568
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 3: like the Pacers trap concept, like they're playing a lot

569
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 3: up at the level of the screen that'll do well

570
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 3: versus Harden and get the ball out of his hands

571
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 3: and make other people make plays. Turner, who I think

572
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 3: is defensive player of the Year right now, can recover

573
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,640
Speaker 3: on Wood, So I like that spot for the Pacers.

574
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 3: I'm with you on the Suns in terms of I

575
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 3: just think that the Suns I like being able to

576
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 3: just take the money on here. I don't have to

577
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 3: worry about the Raptors sneaking in, I don't have to

578
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,159
Speaker 3: worry about friend van Bleiet doing some nonsense. I just

579
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 3: got to get the win. And actually, you know, I

580
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 3: don't hate Fred van Bleet, by the way, I don't.

581
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 4: The good thing about the Pacers in this spot is

582
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 4: that Turner only played twenty three minutes of the night

583
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 4: because he was just in out trubled the whole night.

584
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 4: So I think I think you have guys who are

585
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 4: fresher than you know they normally would in this in

586
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 4: this spot, so I'm not mad at it. I mean

587
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 4: my model makes it. You know, Pacers minus two point two,

588
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 4: so it's kind of right online. As always with Rockets games,

589
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 4: it really just depends on how well they shoot, so

590
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 4: it's just like a that's They're always one of the

591
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:21,919
Speaker 4: more frustrating.

592
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 2: Teams for me to bet.

593
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 3: All right, we have consumed our w r NBA Wednesday

594
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 3: night buffet. Rahi might have to ask you a question.

595
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 3: Am I taking crazy pills?

596
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 1: And now am I taking crazy pills with Matt Moore.

597
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 3: Don't there anyone notice this.

598
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 4: I feel like I'm taking crazy.

599
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 3: Pills Portland as we record this on Tuesday, and they

600
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 3: may they may destroy Chicago, who's got a bunch of

601
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 3: COVID issues. They're on the road. I get it. Okay,

602
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 3: Chicago's not a good team. I think they'll improve as

603
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 3: the year goes on. Portland's a nine and a half

604
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,880
Speaker 3: point favorite versus the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday night. Okay,

605
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 3: the Blazers are two and four ATS and they are

606
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 3: eight points under in the margin ats. This team. I

607
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 3: was railing against them in preseason because everybody was like

608
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:11,360
Speaker 3: to this is a top four seed, this is gonna

609
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 3: be one of the best teams in the Western Conference.

610
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 3: Stotts realized that the defensive scheme of drop. But they

611
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 3: played under David Vanderpool, who's now an assistant with the Wolves.

612
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 3: Good coach, a little bit too dedicated the drop. The

613
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 3: drop was killing him because you just can't contain anybody

614
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, like it's just a problem, and then

615
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 3: the regular season, honestly, like you just don't allow in

616
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 3: too much space. So his counter was to kind of

617
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 3: go towards what the Nuggets did. The Nuggets said, they

618
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,959
Speaker 3: asked Nicole yok They said, hey, where like, how are

619
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 3: you comfortable defensively? And I don't like dropping. I don't

620
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 3: know whether I need to get a hand up or

621
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 3: get back or go to the other guy. I want

622
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 3: to attack. I've got quick hands. So they started playing

623
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 3: him at the level and that's been really effective for Denver.

624
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 3: Denver's been all over the map defensively. If you look

625
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 3: at their final numbers, it doesn't reflect the fact that,

626
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 3: like for the last year, the first month two months

627
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 3: of the season they were the best defensive team, and

628
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 3: then the middle two months they were the worst offense.

629
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: It's a team and they wind up somewhere in the middle.

630
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 3: But it works to limit Jokic's limitations. You can't do

631
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 3: the same thing with use of Nurgage and Enis Kanter.

632
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 3: You cannot do this. Their bigs cannot contain. They can't.

633
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 3: The big problem is you're putting two on ball, which

634
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 3: means the weak sides open. But even then you have

635
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 3: to get a contained on the ball handler, and guys

636
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 3: are just getting the edge on Nurkic, and so he's worried.

637
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,479
Speaker 3: I saw one versus Steph. He went out to wide,

638
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 3: which gave Steph the middle, and then Nurkic just trying

639
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 3: to swipe down and steal it from Steph Curry. One

640
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 3: of the best handles in NBA history. They're undersized at

641
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 3: the guard spot. Robert Covington is a good defender when

642
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 3: he's surrounded by good defenders, but with the injuries he suffered,

643
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 3: not the same, dude. There's been problems there. The second

644
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,479
Speaker 3: unit with Mellow and Canter is a disaster. I'm fading

645
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 3: Portland every second quarter in banking because the second unit bully.

646
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 3: If the starters do wind up winning the first quarter,

647
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 3: the second quarter, they're just giving it back every single time.

648
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 3: They are not good enough defensively. They're taking a ton

649
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 3: of threes. The offense is great, but this is legitimately

650
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 3: I think up there with the Wolves, the worst defense

651
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 3: in the NBA, and they're still getting all of this

652
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 3: credit from the bookmakers. Am I taking crazy pills? You're

653
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 3: not taking crazy pills at all. I can agree with

654
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 3: you there, And actually my numbers put it at around five,

655
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 3: so it's like nine is a little it's a little

656
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 3: heavy for me. I just think that The issue with

657
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 3: the Bulls is always their injury. You know they got

658
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 3: marketing now, Saturansky.

659
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: It's just.

660
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 4: I think I think this is one of those games

661
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 4: to where you know, Portland could just they could outscore them.

662
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you, and we'll say you again

663
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 3: where we're running this on Tuesday. By the time you're

664
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 3: hearing this, you'll already be able to make fun of

665
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 3: me because the Blazers will put up one hundred and

666
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 3: thirty on the balls and beat him by forty or something.

667
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 3: Last segment, we're gonna go back to the future, back

668
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 3: to the future. Is there a future that right now

669
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 3: in this NBA season you wish you had gotten in

670
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: on before this moment in time, because I'll tell you

671
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 3: mine as you think about yours. The big one for

672
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 3: me is the Suns to win the Pacific Division. You

673
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 3: could have gotten really good numbers on that. I don't

674
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 3: think the Clippers are gonna be able. The Clippers are

675
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 3: gonna load manage. They're just not gonna gun for a

676
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 3: top spot. They're playing great basketball. When they're playing great

677
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,959
Speaker 3: basketball outside of you know, getting trucked by fifty by

678
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 3: the Mavericks. But other than that, they're basically like they're incredible.

679
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 3: The Lakers are just coasting. You can just tell the

680
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 3: Lakers are like, we're gonna win some, we're gonna lose some,

681
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 3: We're gonna win more than we lose. We're gonna wind

682
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 3: up with the top four seed. We're probably gonna win

683
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 3: the title again. But there's no pedal down from the

684
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 3: Lakers because they can't based off of that, I didn't

685
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 3: see a spot for the Pacific Division last year. Last year,

686
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 3: I got in on the Lakers and I got the

687
00:31:58,160 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 3: on on the Lakers to finish with more wins than

688
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 3: the clip. I got both those bets and they both cashed.

689
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 3: I didn't think the Suns would be this good.

690
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 2: I didn't either.

691
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 3: But even when I see that Clippers loss, I'm still

692
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 3: just like, man, they pull back into that game. Paul's

693
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 3: playing so well. They got so many weapons barring an

694
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 3: injury with Chris Paul is a serious question many Williams

695
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 3: has them. They are so well organized on both sides

696
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: of the basketball, with so much talent. If you put

697
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 3: organized basketball on both sides with talent and athleticism, you

698
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 3: were gonna win a ton of games. I legitimately think

699
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 3: the Suns might want have went into the Pacific Division.

700
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 4: I'm I agree with you. I mean, like, for me,

701
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 4: I'm really big on defense. And if you have one

702
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,719
Speaker 4: of the best defenses in the league, and you can

703
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 4: hit the three, and you have a bench, and you

704
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 4: have a floor general, and you have a closer, like

705
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 4: I watched Devin Booker close out the game against Utah.

706
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 4: You know, Utah made a run, but Devin Booker closed

707
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 4: it out. And I think, I just think they have

708
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,719
Speaker 4: everything that you possibly want. They have wings who could defend,

709
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,239
Speaker 4: and bridges and crowder, they can hit the three. I

710
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 4: love this team, so I'm not mad at that. I

711
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 4: wish I had put that in as well. All Right,

712
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 4: for me, I think the bet that I wish I

713
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 4: had put in was Jolkish to win MVP. I think

714
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 4: he was like plus three thousand. Now he's down a

715
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 4: plus thirteen hundred. This guy's almost averaging a triple double.

716
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 4: He's averaged twenty two points, twelve assists, and eleven rebounds.

717
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 4: I know the Nuggets aren't doing quite well now, but

718
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 4: at some point they're gonna turn it around, and he's

719
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 4: gonna be the catalyst behind it. So for me, I

720
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 4: wish I had put that in earlier. Still plus thirteen hundred,

721
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 4: which is it's good, but it's not great.

722
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 2: But that's one that I wish I had put in.

723
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's still good value though, I think because the

724
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 3: Nuggets are probably gonna pull over five hundred in the

725
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 3: next two weeks, and then that number is gonna start dropping,

726
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 3: so that one that one's got, I think still get

727
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 3: really good value.

728
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 5: Now, I hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast.

729
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:44,479
Speaker 5: I want to make sure you know about the Locked

730
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 5: On podcast network Locked On as a daily podcast on

731
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 5: your favorite team.

732
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 4: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers, you were locked

733
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 4: onn of the Dallas Matage?

734
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 2: Can Everybody still Locked on? Lakers?

735
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 3: Podcast?

736
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 2: Let's Go?

737
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,959
Speaker 5: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

738
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 5: know your team better than anyone and give you the

739
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 5: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

740
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 5: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your Locked on podcast.

741
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 3: That's our big back to the future bed. Now wrap

742
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 3: it up for this edition of the Action Network podcast. Again,

743
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 3: make sure I download our app is the fastest way

744
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 3: to get all of your up to the second betting

745
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 3: information track all your picks, get our analysis on the daily.

746
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 3: Check it out, download the Action Network app wherever you

747
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,240
Speaker 3: get your apps. Make sure to rate, review and subscribe.

748
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 3: Give us those five star reviews helps us out so much.

749
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 3: Gaheem Palmer. I'm Matt Moore. We'll be back next week

750
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 3: with another edition of the Action Network NBA podcast.

751
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 2: We're finished talking