1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Cockley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall here alongside Bloomberg's Michael Sheppard in Washington, and 7 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 2: we are closely tracking one of our top stories today, 8 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 2: which is that President Trump is now calling for Federal 9 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 2: Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign. He posted on truth 10 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:45,640 Speaker 2: Social earlier today saying Cook must resign now three exclamation 11 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 2: points following it. If you're watching us on YouTube, the 12 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 2: post is up showing President Trump's truth Social posts that 13 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 2: came out this morning after the director of the Federal 14 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 2: Housing Finance Agency, Bill Polty urged the Attorney General, Pam 15 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 2: bond Eaton to get Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud. 16 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 2: Important to note no charges have been filed and it 17 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 2: is unclear if there will actually be an investigation. But 18 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 2: Poulty's name might sound familiar because he's been one of 19 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:17,839 Speaker 2: the loudest critics when it comes to the Central Bank 20 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,119 Speaker 2: including the man who leads it right now, and that's 21 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 2: Jerome Powell. For the latest on this story. We're going 22 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 2: to bring you the reporter who broke it, and that 23 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 2: is Bloomberg's Josh Wingrove, who helps lead our White House 24 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 2: coverage here at Bloomberg. So, Josh, just bring us up 25 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 2: to speed on these allegations that President Trump has now elevated. 26 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 2: What do we actually know here? 27 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of moving parts and there is 28 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 3: a lot that we don't know, So good place to 29 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 3: start with what we do. So the allegations laid out 30 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 3: in the referral letter from Bill Poulty to the Attorney 31 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 3: General as well as Ed Martin, a DOJ offisher who 32 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 3: leads sort of a weaponization task force that is anti weaponization. 33 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 3: We should know given the context of the what's going 34 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 3: on is that she took two mortgages out in twenty 35 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 3: twenty one, one on a property in Michigan and then 36 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 3: two weeks later another on a property in Georgia, and 37 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 3: that in both cases there was a provision in the 38 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 3: mortgage that said she had to maintain that property as 39 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 3: her principal residence within sixty days and for at least 40 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 3: a year now. Of course, given that the purchases were 41 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 3: only a couple of weeks apart, it'd be difficult to 42 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 3: maintain both as your primary residence in two separate states. 43 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 3: This was before she was named to the FED in 44 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 3: twenty twenty two. But the allegation here is that sometimes 45 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,640 Speaker 3: people do this, generally speaking, because you get a lower 46 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 3: mortgage rate for the principal occupant residence than you would 47 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 3: for say an investment property or building you 'or not 48 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 3: living in. And so right now it's not clear necessarily. 49 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 3: I should note there's a line in these documents that 50 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 3: say you can notify your lender if you've done that. 51 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 3: We've not heard from Lisa Cook yet. That's one of 52 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 3: the big unknowns. It's not clear yet whether she did 53 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 3: notify the Michigan lender or the Georgia lender about a 54 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 3: change in circumstance. There is a third leg at this 55 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 3: stool and the complaint as well or the referral, which 56 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,119 Speaker 3: is said there's an apparent rental listing for the Georgia property. Again, 57 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 3: rentals are treated also differently than if it's your primary residence. 58 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: So there's some moving parts here, but fundamentally Pulty is 59 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 3: accusing her of potential fraud or mortgage fraud by presenting 60 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 3: herselves as living in these buildings when not actually having 61 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 3: them as her primary residence. Of course, she was in Washington, 62 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:22,800 Speaker 3: certainly from twenty twenty two onward, and so that's the 63 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,519 Speaker 3: allegation right now. The Fed has declined comment. DJ is 64 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 3: confirmed recyat but declined comment. Lisa Cook has not said 65 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 3: anything about it. Her current term, remember she was nominating them. 66 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,679 Speaker 3: The renominated to a full term goes to twenty thirty eight, 67 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 3: so she's got quite a lot of runway left here. 68 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 3: Now calls for her to resign, as well as Bill 69 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 3: Polti floating the notion that President Trump should consider firing 70 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 3: her totally unclear, way too premature to say a whether 71 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 3: the evidence would support that or be whether legally he'd 72 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 3: have the power to Josh. 73 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 4: Let's turn to Bill Poulty and his role in this. 74 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 4: Tyler brought up him in the context of his complaints 75 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 4: about j Powell and with administration views as a slow 76 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 4: pace in cutting interest rates, How does this fit in 77 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 4: and what is this beyond the scope of his role 78 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 4: as head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. 79 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 3: This is certainly unusual for the FED for the FHFA 80 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 3: director to be the chief attack dog. Essentially, he's Powell's 81 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 3: antagonist in chief within Trump Land. He's been just going 82 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 3: at him over and over and over, and Donald Trump 83 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 3: hasn't seemed to have minded that. And now that you know, 84 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 3: one of the questions we have right now is how 85 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 3: did FHFA get their hands on Lisa Cook's mortgage documents? 86 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 3: Why are they digging into that? Is that is that 87 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 3: it's their public documents, But I mean, is that the 88 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 3: job of the FAHFA director or the FAJAFA staff to 89 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 3: you know, dig through the personal finances as the FED board. 90 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 3: It's unclear right now whether that's what doing them, or 91 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,359 Speaker 3: whether they had a whistleblower or who knows. We just 92 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 3: don't know right now. But right now Pulti is certainly 93 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 3: one of, if not the chief Powell antagonist. Has consistently 94 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 3: floated things like he hears Powell is about to resign 95 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 3: or is under pressure to resign, And so this should 96 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 3: certainly be viewed in part and parcel of two ongoing 97 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 3: fights Trump has one with the FED, including with Pulty 98 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 3: pressuring Trump to lower rates and just broadly sort of 99 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 3: rattling the FED and certainly doing away with what we're 100 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 3: previously understood limits on what the government can date, say, 101 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,719 Speaker 3: or do about the FED. The second is that they've 102 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 3: been going after them figures and DEM appointees over mortgage 103 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 3: frot specifically, this is sort of a thin edge of 104 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 3: the wedget they think that they can get leverage on 105 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,040 Speaker 3: and in some case prove wrongdoing potentially. We've seen it 106 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 3: with Tiss James, of course, a big Trump voe. We've 107 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 3: seen it with Adam Schiff, big Trump foe, and now 108 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 3: that is sort of metastasized over to the FED as 109 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 3: well with Lisa Cook, who of course is a Democratic appointee, 110 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,919 Speaker 3: but not a Democrat official in the way that Schiff 111 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 3: and James are. 112 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 4: Josh Wen Growth, thank you for joining us, and thank 113 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 4: you for all your great reporting. We'd like to now 114 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 4: turn to our colleague Michael McKee, the senior International Economics correspondent, 115 00:05:56,520 --> 00:06:00,480 Speaker 4: who is in Jackson Hole now awaiting to start of 116 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 4: the closely watched Federal Reserve gathering out there. Mike, this 117 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 4: is certainly casting a different feel and different vibe around 118 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 4: the meeting. Will we expect the FED at some point 119 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 4: to address these complaints in allegations. So far, they have 120 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 4: declined to comment. And also, Mike, are we expected to 121 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 4: see Lisa Cook out there in Wyoming? 122 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 5: Well, guidance from the FED was that Lisa Cook, like 123 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:29,919 Speaker 5: the rest of the board, would be attending. This is, 124 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 5: of course j Powell's last symposium as the head of 125 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 5: the Federal Reserve Board, and so they were going to 126 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 5: come and probably pay tribute to him. We don't know 127 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 5: if she still intends to come, but everybody's keeping an 128 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 5: eye out for her, and it does cast a bit 129 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 5: of a pall over this. But whether the FED will 130 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 5: comment or not isn't clear because these are just allegations. 131 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 5: There is nothing proven, as Josh was pointing out, and 132 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 5: this is a somewhat political effort by the administration. So 133 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 5: the FED may not have much to say about this 134 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 5: at this point because I think one of the things 135 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 5: the administration wants to do is make this a story, 136 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 5: and the FED is not going to want to contribute 137 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 5: to that. 138 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 2: Mike McKee and a windy Teton village, Wyoming, flanked by 139 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 2: the beautiful Titon Mountain range. Mike just very quickly, there's 140 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 2: a very high legal bar here. If there were going 141 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 2: to be any sort of effort to remove Lisa Cook. 142 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 2: Can you talk to us about the legal question surrounding 143 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 2: President Trump pressuring a FED governor to resign? 144 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,119 Speaker 5: Well, the Federal Reserve Act says that governors can only 145 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 5: be fired for cause, and the Supreme Corpt a couple 146 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 5: of months ago basically said the Fed's the way the 147 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 5: FED is set up means that the president can't just 148 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 5: fire them, even though other members of the administration have 149 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 5: been fired and they had four cause clauses. Now, whether 150 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 5: he would fire Lisa Cook or not as an interesting 151 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 5: question because as we know, Trump's relationship to the law 152 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 5: is a little loose, and it might be a question 153 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 5: of a target of opportunity where he could try to 154 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 5: fire her. And if he loses in court, so what 155 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 5: But the ultra conspiracy, Tyler, is this. All of the 156 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 5: Fedbank presidents get their contracts renewed by the board in February, 157 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 5: and if Trump were to get four members of the 158 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:27,239 Speaker 5: seven member board, they could, in theory decline to renew 159 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 5: any of those contracts, and the President could try to 160 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 5: influence the selection of the rest of the Federal Reserve. 161 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 5: Now that's pretty far out there, not likely to happen. 162 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 5: I don't think Chris Waller would go along. But if 163 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 5: you want a tenfoil hat theory attached to this, that could. 164 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 2: Be it, all right, a conspiracy theory to watch out for. 165 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 2: From our Boomberg's Michael McKee, senior International and Economics policy 166 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 2: correspondent out in Jackson Hole for us, we thank you 167 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 2: so much. Is going to be a story that we're 168 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 2: going to be covering closely over the next two hours 169 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 2: here on Balance. But make sure to stick with us 170 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 2: because coming up we have a really interesting conversation some 171 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 2: pretty unique polling out from IPSOS new numbers about President 172 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:10,719 Speaker 2: Trump's approval ratings and how all of these policies are 173 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 2: playing with the American people. I'm Tyler Kendall here alongside 174 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Michael Shepherd in Washington, DC. This is Balance Power. 175 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 2: Make sure to keep it here. We'll be right back. 176 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 6: Stay with us on Balance of Power. 177 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 3: We'll have much more coming up after this. 178 00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch 179 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 180 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 181 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 182 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 183 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 2: Welcome back to Balance of Power Today's Wednesday edition. I'm 184 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall here alongside Michael Shepherd in Washington, and we 185 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 2: are getting new polling as we close out the summer 186 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 2: month here in the nation's capital around the administration's policies. 187 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 2: And of course, one of the big focuses that we 188 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 2: always have our eyes on here at Bloomberg has to 189 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 2: do with the economic outlook and how Americans are feeling 190 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 2: about the country's economy and economic health. And an indicator 191 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 2: that we watch closely around the idea of economic uncertainty 192 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:26,319 Speaker 2: might have actually waned recently after some record peaks. And 193 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:28,839 Speaker 2: we're going to dig into all this data here because 194 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 2: we are lucky to be joined here on set by 195 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 2: Cliff Young, ipso's US Public Affairs President and professor at 196 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 2: Texas A and M University's Bush School of Government and 197 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 2: Public Cliff, can you tell us a little bit more 198 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 2: about this trend that we're seeing or isn't even a 199 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 2: trend when it comes to economic uncertainty, because that seems 200 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 2: to really have been a defining factor this year when 201 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 2: we have looked at all the administration's policies, from tariffs 202 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 2: to taxes. 203 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 7: It's been uncertainty this year for Americans in general, lots 204 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 7: of friction because the Trump administration has really pushed the envelope, 205 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 7: really thwarted convention. There's that feel out there that things 206 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 7: are just being tweaked and moved and changed, and humans 207 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 7: are uncomfortable with that. Donald Trump and his administration stepped 208 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 7: off the gas when it came to tariffs in the spring. 209 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 7: And what did we see since then? His numbers came up, 210 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 7: relative optimism coming up a bit, the overall uncertainty index 211 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 7: going down. But this is the lull before the storm ultimately, 212 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 7: because there are other indicators showing that Americans are uneasy 213 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 7: about the future. 214 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 4: Cliff I wanted to dig into the numbers a little 215 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 4: bit more because when you look more closely, you do 216 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 4: see a disconnect politically over the costs and benefits of tariffs. 217 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 6: Can you talk about that a little bit? 218 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 7: Yeah, It's like two sides of the same coin, but 219 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 7: two different worlds. 220 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 8: Right. 221 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 7: So, on the one hand, Americans red blue, purple are 222 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 7: worried about about tariffs. They see tarots as inflationary, and 223 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 7: they have since the get go, since the beginning of 224 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 7: the year we've tracked this. It's very clear on the 225 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,079 Speaker 7: flip side, they do see the benefits as well. They 226 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 7: do see at least in part, how tariffs might bring 227 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 7: back jobs to America, might bring back industry. The only 228 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:22,319 Speaker 7: caveat there is there's been a tenuation in that belief 229 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 7: since early spring, especially among Independents. There's a lot more 230 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 7: there's a lot more trepidation and on eas as I said, 231 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,959 Speaker 7: especially among independence when it comes to long term benefits 232 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:36,439 Speaker 7: with respect to tariffs. 233 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 2: We know that one of the top issues that helped 234 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 2: elect President Trump, of course, was the economy. It is 235 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,439 Speaker 2: something that we repeatedly saw him during the campaign trail 236 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 2: poll really well on. So as we were talking about 237 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 2: how Americans have been digesting his economic policies, can you 238 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 2: talk to us at the moment where President Trump, his policies, 239 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 2: this White House is approval rating is standing right now. 240 00:12:57,559 --> 00:12:59,960 Speaker 7: He is in a relatively good place when it comes 241 00:12:59,920 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 7: to his approval numbers depending on the poll. Let's just 242 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 7: take the average of all the polls out there, not 243 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 7: just episodes, but all the polls, all the polling firms, 244 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 7: it's around forty four percent. That's a good place. Ultimately, 245 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 7: he's better than he was in twenty seventeen. He would 246 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 7: be able to be re elected with better than fifty 247 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 7: to fifty chants if he were to run again. We're 248 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 7: talking theoretically, he's in a good place. When it comes 249 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 7: to numbers, the decline is numbers since the since January, 250 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,719 Speaker 7: that is since the honeymoon, has only been about six points. 251 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 7: That's basically the average. So overall today he's in a 252 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 7: relatively good place. He's improved, as I said before, since 253 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,960 Speaker 7: the early spring, where ultimately he stepped off the gas 254 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 7: when it came to tariffs. But other indicators are are 255 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 7: I would say, showing negative signals for the future. He 256 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 7: doesn't pull well on the economy. He doesn't pull well 257 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 7: on cost of living. As I said before, Americans are 258 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 7: worried about tariffs. 259 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 6: They see them as inflationary. 260 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,200 Speaker 4: Let's talk a little bit more about that cost of 261 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,679 Speaker 4: living question. Do we see it trending more negatively as 262 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 4: the tariffs really start to take that bite out. 263 00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 7: Of consumers pocketbooks. It's we have bizarre trends. We have 264 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 7: in some ways seemingly contradictory trends. So on the one hand, 265 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 7: inflation concretely in the real economy is improving, or at 266 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 7: least has so up to now. 267 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 6: Trump won on inflation, but he rode he rode that wave. 268 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 6: You surf that wave. 269 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,160 Speaker 7: But things have improved, and Americans recognized that in the 270 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 7: short term today. But on the flip side, worries about 271 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 7: the future have only increased. Sixty percent of Americans today 272 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:54,359 Speaker 7: believe that the prices have increased, and that's because of tariffs. 273 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 2: I want to highlight some of these specific numbers. We 274 00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 2: just had them up on screen if you're following us 275 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 2: on YouTube. It comes to President Trump's approval or disapproval 276 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 2: rather when it comes to handling some of these key issues, 277 00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 2: and it says he's down twelve percent on US foreign policy. 278 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 2: We have been talking a whole lot this week when 279 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 2: it comes to Ukraine, the future of the conflict there. 280 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 2: How President Trump has been navigating it, convening what really 281 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 2: felt like a G seven summit earlier this week, rather 282 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 2: imprompt you at the White House. How are we seeing 283 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 2: foreign policy play into these dynamics, as this issue really 284 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 2: does dominate to the headlines this week. 285 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 6: He doesn't really get any points for it. 286 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 7: Americans are really worried about domestic issues, whether it's about 287 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 7: inflation or jobs, or political extremism, immigration, as some of 288 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 7: those key issues. They are worried about the more bread 289 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:52,320 Speaker 7: and butter, those more domestic American issues, and we're generally speaking, 290 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 7: we live today in America that's not in favor of 291 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 7: muscular foreign policy. 292 00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:58,400 Speaker 6: That's across the board. 293 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 7: That's whether you're red, blue, purple, you're older, you're young, 294 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 7: but especially among the young, they don't like it, and 295 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 7: we're seeing that in the numbers. In other words, Americans 296 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 7: would prefer not to be exposed to conflicts abroad. They'd 297 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 7: rather concentrate on the home front. And there's only tepid 298 00:16:16,280 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 7: support even the most extreme situation Tepe and support for 299 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 7: foreign involvement. 300 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 4: Today, Cliff Young with episodes. We thank you for your 301 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 4: time and your insights, and we look forward to having 302 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 4: you back as we learn more about tariffs and the 303 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 4: impact on the economy. 304 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 6: Thank you. 305 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 4: We're joined now by Christine Aquino, the managing editor for 306 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 4: Top Markets live in New York. 307 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 6: I should be. 308 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 4: Joining us now to talk about what we're seeing. Another 309 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 4: day of losses on Wall Street, Christine, thank you. Tell 310 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 4: us what you are seeing in the numbers there and 311 00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 4: what is fueling this downdraft. It seems to be heavy 312 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 4: in the tech area, but what's behind. 313 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 9: It, absolutely, Mike, And you know, I think really what 314 00:16:57,400 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 9: we're seeing here is a bit of a pivot from 315 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 9: the very strong rally that we've seen ever since the 316 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 9: lows in a stock market in April, right and that 317 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 9: has been really unstoppable. So some corners of the market 318 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 9: just thinking, oh, maybe it's time for a breather. We 319 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 9: did get tech earnings that have mostly exceeded expectations, but 320 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 9: they were very low expectations, and you know, there are 321 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 9: some jitterous ahead of Nvidia earnings, which is going to 322 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,159 Speaker 9: be next week that really is the big one for market. 323 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 9: A lot of that has turned into such a big 324 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 9: macro story that's driving a lot of the market moves 325 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,919 Speaker 9: that we're seeing right now. So perhaps an excuse for 326 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 9: investors to take some money off the table today. But 327 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 9: at the same time, there are longer term questions over 328 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 9: the viability of tech and the viability of the AI trade, 329 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 9: especially because we did just get a recent MIT paper 330 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 9: discussing or questioning how much value does AI really add 331 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 9: to workflows and businesses, and that's putting a little bit 332 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 9: of a damper on the rally that we've seen today 333 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 9: as well. 334 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 2: Another big factor that we're following here closely, of course, 335 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 2: has to do with President Trump's attacks when it comes 336 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 2: to to the Central Bank calling today for FED Governor 337 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 2: Lisa Cook to resign. How are we seeing that materialize 338 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 2: in the market reaction. 339 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,880 Speaker 9: Well, Tyler, the immediate reaction, of course is a weaker 340 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 9: dollar as well as lower treasury yields. The weaker dollar 341 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 9: perhaps explained by expectations that this move once again ramps 342 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 9: up the possibility that we're going to get FED rate 343 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 9: cuts down in the horizon, and meanwhile lower bond yields, 344 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,399 Speaker 9: again attesting to the fact that whenever there's any sort 345 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:33,639 Speaker 9: of questions over FED credibility or concerns that the FED 346 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 9: is facing undue pressure from the government, the tendency for 347 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,919 Speaker 9: investors is to flock to save haven's and treasuries is 348 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 9: one of them, and we are definitely seeing that today. 349 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 9: And of course this has the stage very much for 350 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:50,440 Speaker 9: the Jackson Hole Symposium toward this weekend, when there's audiential 351 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 9: questions over what will come from FED chair. 352 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:54,200 Speaker 6: To Rome Powell. 353 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 9: This is going to be his last Jackson hole. Is 354 00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 9: he going to push back against pressure for lower rates? 355 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 9: And you know what we're seeing today in terms of 356 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 9: the FED newes flow really just adding to those jitters 357 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 9: and pushing that safe have and flow into treasuries. 358 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 4: At the moment, Christina wanted to dial back into the 359 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 4: tech angle just a moment here, tell us about what 360 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,640 Speaker 4: we have to expect next week with Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. 361 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 4: We've seen their shares really slide over the past several days. 362 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 6: What are we to look for and what is. 363 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,880 Speaker 4: The concern over the next quarter and through the end 364 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:36,320 Speaker 4: of the year when it comes to AI and AI boom. 365 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 9: Yeah, absolutely, Mike, I mean look like Nvidia earnings very 366 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 9: much still lofty expectations there. As of last rating analysts, 367 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 9: we're expecting an earnings growth of forty four percent and 368 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 9: fifty three percent surge in their revenue to about forty 369 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 9: five billion dollars. Now, these are very very high expectations, 370 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 9: and the trend that we've seen with Nvidia so far 371 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 9: into the last few earnings reports is that they have 372 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 9: be and those experts, patients or at least met them. 373 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 9: But then I think the concern is that we are 374 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 9: increasingly getting into a market where just beating expectations to 375 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 9: a reasonable degree is not enough. You have to beat 376 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 9: expectations by so much to keep that momentum going. And 377 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 9: that is the concern essentially, is that you know how 378 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 9: much more momentum does and Video really have in terms 379 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 9: of beating those expectations and ultimately in its share price. 380 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 9: And you know, what happens to Nvidia is essentially what 381 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,960 Speaker 9: happens to stock market, because it has such a huge 382 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:33,200 Speaker 9: grip on everything else that's happening that any small movement 383 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,199 Speaker 9: in Vidia could create giant waves for the rest of 384 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 9: the s and P five hundred. 385 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:44,320 Speaker 2: All right, fantastic analysis from Christine Aquino, our Bloomberg Market's 386 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 2: Live managing editor. We thank you so much. 387 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 6: Stay with us on Balance of Power. 388 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:50,919 Speaker 10: We'll have much more coming up after this. 389 00:20:56,359 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast live 390 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Coarclay 391 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,919 Speaker 1: and Android Otto with the Bluemberg Business app. Listen on 392 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,240 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 393 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:11,360 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 394 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 2: We are tracking an important story today that could have 395 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 2: some big impacts on the twenty twenty six midterms. California 396 00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 2: Republicans say that they will launch a court battle against 397 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 2: Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom's plans for redistricting. And if that 398 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 2: sounds familiar, that's because this week we've been dragging another 399 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 2: redistricting battle, one playing out in Texas where Republicans are 400 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 2: trying to gain seats to their advantage. But it's taken 401 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 2: a turn in recent days with Democrats protesting a push 402 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 2: by the Republican held state legislature to keep those legislators 403 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 2: there so that they don't leave the state as they 404 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 2: try to make some changes to these congressional maps. And 405 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 2: yesterday we heard from some of the Democrats there who 406 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,719 Speaker 2: are protests those Republicans' plans. 407 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 11: We knew what was ahead of us. What we didn't 408 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 11: know is that we were going to be arrested in 409 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 11: mass when he directed the sergeant at arms to lock 410 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 11: the chambers and not let us exit. And then we 411 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,199 Speaker 11: were basically put up against the wall and said not 412 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 11: literally but figuratively put up against the wall and said 413 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 11: no one's allowed to leave unless they basically sign a 414 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,760 Speaker 11: piece of paper consenting to moving custody is what. 415 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 6: I call it. 416 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 11: We are not criminals. We are states men and women. 417 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 11: We are elected just like those people are. 418 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 2: That was Penny Morales Shaw, Texas State Representative, yesterday outside 419 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,400 Speaker 2: of the Texas State Capital. And for more, we're going 420 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 2: to bring in our political panel for their analysis here today, 421 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 2: we're joined by Sarah Chamberlain, Republican Main Street Partnership President, 422 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 2: and Matt Bennett, executive vice president, a Third Way and 423 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 2: a Democratic strategist. Matt, let me start with you just 424 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:03,399 Speaker 2: how politically charged of an issue is redistricting going to 425 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,680 Speaker 2: be as we head into twenty twenty six and we're 426 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 2: already seeing this result in protests, members in Texas sleeping 427 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 2: in the state chamber. What's happening here? 428 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 12: It's going to be an enormously politically charged issue. 429 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 8: It already is. 430 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,800 Speaker 12: And let's be clear about why this is happening. There's 431 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 12: only one reason, and that is because the Trump White 432 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,919 Speaker 12: House was worried about losing control of the House and 433 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 12: so they are trying to change the rules in the 434 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 12: middle of the game. They are trying to do a 435 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 12: mid decade redistricting, which is not supposed to happen it's 436 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 12: not illegal, but it is very, very uncommon. And they 437 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,120 Speaker 12: started in Texas, where they knew that they could gerrymander 438 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,920 Speaker 12: the district so that they could get advantage in five 439 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 12: more house races by packing them with Republicans. Democrats there 440 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:56,120 Speaker 12: have no way of slowing that down without denying them 441 00:23:56,359 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 12: a quorum, so they left the state, but they eventually 442 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,479 Speaker 12: had to come back. California is responding to that with 443 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 12: moves of its own to try to change their maps 444 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 12: only temporarily to respond to this action on part of 445 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 12: the Trump administration. And it's not confined by the way 446 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 12: to Texas. They're trying to do it in Indiana and 447 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:21,879 Speaker 12: other places as well Florida. So look, this is very 448 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 12: very nasty, hardball politics being laid by the Trump administration. 449 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 8: You're seeing response from. 450 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:31,400 Speaker 12: Democrats in California and New York and elsewhere. No one 451 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 12: knows how these legal battles will play out in California. 452 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 12: The voters will have to decide in November whether they're 453 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 12: up for this or not. But either way, it's an 454 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 12: extraordinarily nasty way to start the twenty twenty six midterm cycle. 455 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 4: Sarah, is there a risk that this high profile fight 456 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 4: in Texas turns into a pyrrhic victory of sorts for Republicans. 457 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:59,240 Speaker 4: In other words, they win the redistricting fight in the legislature, 458 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 4: up alienating voters in Texas in the process. 459 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 6: There's certainly a risk of that. 460 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 10: But to be honest, before this all got started. 461 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 13: There's on a polling that was done where people support this, 462 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 13: and in Texas it came back that, yeah, they would 463 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,880 Speaker 13: support moving forward with the governor doing this in these 464 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,639 Speaker 13: quote unquote Jerrymander districts. 465 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 6: So they knew what they were doing in Texas. 466 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 10: Obviously, the California and there's as many Democratic states they 467 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 10: are looking to Jerry Maner as there are Republicans. We 468 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,920 Speaker 10: aren't hardball politics. I don't think anybody is really surprised 469 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:38,120 Speaker 10: to see this. 470 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 13: This is the new political game, and it's not. 471 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 10: Just the Republicans, it's also the Democrats that are playing 472 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:47,200 Speaker 10: this game. Politics has changed, This is a new time 473 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,080 Speaker 10: and I think you're going to see this for the 474 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 10: next few years as hardball. 475 00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 2: Well, Matt, I want to stick here on California because 476 00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,399 Speaker 2: we were talking about this in the first hour of 477 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 2: Balance of that Politico had some exclusive pulling out today 478 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 2: that shows that the Democratic governor is the top twenty 479 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 2: twenty eight presidential contender among Democratic leaning voters in his 480 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,399 Speaker 2: home estate. That's according to the latest Politico Citron Center 481 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 2: Possibility Lab survey that came out today. He even leads 482 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,879 Speaker 2: for or Vice president Kamala Harris, who we know is 483 00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:26,359 Speaker 2: mulling perhaps a bit his longtime ally and sometimes rival 484 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 2: twenty five to nineteen percent Matt As we are watching 485 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 2: the next election already shape up. All this speculation, is 486 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 2: this somebody that you think could lead the Democratic Party 487 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 2: come twenty twenty eight, I don't know. 488 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,639 Speaker 12: And I think if you talk to anybody in either 489 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,640 Speaker 12: party who tells you with confidence who would be their 490 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 12: strongest standard bearer going into twenty twenty eight, view that 491 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 12: with great skepticism, because what we've seen over and over 492 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,679 Speaker 12: in presidential politics is that even people who are really 493 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 12: really good as governors, really effective political leaders running for 494 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,359 Speaker 12: statewide office often are very very bad. 495 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:08,560 Speaker 8: As presidential candidates. 496 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,640 Speaker 12: And conversely, the people you didn't really expect to emerge, 497 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,640 Speaker 12: and I think Trump certainly was one. Nobody expected him 498 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 12: to do what he did in twenty sixteen. Bill Clinton 499 00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,439 Speaker 12: is another came out of that kind of nowhere to 500 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:27,919 Speaker 12: dominate their parties. And so it's way too early to 501 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,119 Speaker 12: know whether Newsom or another governor or someone else is 502 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 12: going to be the strongest candidate in our race. It's 503 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 12: too early to know who's going to lead the Republicans 504 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,800 Speaker 12: after Trump. This is good for Gavin Newsom the work 505 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,439 Speaker 12: that he's doing right now in this moment, but we 506 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:48,240 Speaker 12: are a really long way away from choosing a nominee 507 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,120 Speaker 12: and this will be basically ancient history by the time we. 508 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:56,640 Speaker 4: Get there, Sarah, the Republican Party and Donald Trump in particular, 509 00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 4: trying to keep public safety and crime issue use at 510 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 4: the forefront. We've seen that over the past week and 511 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 4: a half, with the President ordering National Guard troops to 512 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 4: the district of Columbia and other Republican governors following suit 513 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:16,360 Speaker 4: sending elements of their own National Guard forces to help 514 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:21,440 Speaker 4: support that effort. How effective will that be for Republicans 515 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 4: in terms of keeping the crime and public safety issue 516 00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,640 Speaker 4: in front of voters as we head into twenty twenty six. 517 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 10: So obviously crime is a massive issue. And I am 518 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 10: sitting in DC right now, and I will tell you, 519 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 10: as a woman, as a person who knows people who've 520 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 10: been attacked, who've been a carjacked, who've been attacked in elevators, 521 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 10: and welcome. I know it's a little controversy, controversial, but 522 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 10: I welcome what President Trump is doing here in the district. 523 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 10: We should be able to live in DC and feel safe, 524 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 10: and many people don't in all parts of DC. Not 525 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 10: I know there's a lot of talking. You know, they're 526 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 10: only in the Georgetown and Dupas circle of. 527 00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,200 Speaker 6: Parts, but they are all over DC. 528 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 10: And everybody I know who's lives here feels better, is 529 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 10: very happy to have them here and it feels much 530 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 10: more secure. This is an important issue going into the 531 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 10: next election. Americans want to feel safe wherever they live, 532 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 10: and I think that this is going to play very 533 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 10: well for the depth for the Republicans moving forward. 534 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 4: Matt, But how will Democrats respond Because here in the 535 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 4: district we have seen the mayor point to statistics from 536 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 4: the US Justice Department showing that crime had fallen was 537 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 4: down as much as thirty percent from a year earlier. 538 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,360 Speaker 4: So how do they counteract these moves? What is the 539 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 4: argument there? 540 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,280 Speaker 12: I think you're going to see two arguments, and one 541 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 12: is a good one and one is not. So I 542 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 12: think the one that's not a great argument is the 543 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:58,480 Speaker 12: one denying what Sarah just said, denying that she feels unsafe. 544 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 12: I mean, if she feels unsafe, he feels unsafe. And 545 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 12: that's true for a lot of folks, not everybody. There's 546 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,680 Speaker 12: a lot of people who feel more unsafe with all 547 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 12: sorts of militarized people driving around to Deced than they 548 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 12: did before. 549 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 8: But I think Democrats would make a mistake. 550 00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 12: If they said that there is no crime problem, because 551 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 12: crime politically is an issue when voters feel that it 552 00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 12: is real. The data is really not that relevant. On 553 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 12: the other hand, there are very good arguments to make 554 00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 12: about how Trump and the Republicans have mishandled the crime 555 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 12: issue very badly. 556 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 8: So for example, they have literally. 557 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 12: Defunded the police of the District of Columbia by essentially 558 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,840 Speaker 12: stealing one point one billion dollars from the district's budget. 559 00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,800 Speaker 12: They just took it away for no reason. That pays 560 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 12: for cops, and as the Mayor's made clear, we need 561 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 12: five hundred more members of the metropolitan police here. The 562 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,920 Speaker 12: other things that Trump has done, I mean, he pardoned 563 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:59,920 Speaker 12: hundreds of people who viciously attacked and beat law enforcement 564 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,800 Speaker 12: officers tried to burst into the Capitol and either murder 565 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 12: or harm members of Congress and overturn an election. He 566 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,960 Speaker 12: pardoned those people, and now he is coddling a woman 567 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 12: very incredibly accused of horrible sex crimes. 568 00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:17,880 Speaker 8: So he's the. 569 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,200 Speaker 12: Guy I think that has the real crime issue. And 570 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,719 Speaker 12: if Democrats can focus on attacking there instead of denying 571 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 12: what people feel, they'll be in better shape. 572 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 2: All right, our political panel today, Sarah Chamberlain and Matt Bennett, 573 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 2: we thank you so much for joining us on both 574 00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 2: hours of Balance of Power. 575 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 6: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 576 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, 577 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:43,920 Speaker 3: Spotify 578 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 12: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 579 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 12: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at New Time 580 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 12: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.